Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

Let’s finish the job.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

How can republicans represent us when they don’t trust women?

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

If you’re pissed about Biden’s speech, he was talking about you.

Don’t expect peaches from an apple tree.

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

I really should read my own blog.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 Coronavirus / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Feb. 17-18

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Feb. 17-18

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Fortunately, nobody likes Ted Cruz…


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Reader Interactions

89Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    The level of #coronavirus detected in #wastewater in Eastern Massachusetts, US, is down 98% from its peak earlier this year, suggesting the #Omicron-fueled surge is dwindling

    I wonder how many antivaxxers will start shitting in their living rooms to own the libs on wastewater testing.

  3. 3.

    NeenerNeener

    Monroe County, NY:

    There were 192 new cases on 2/17.

    My test kit order is still “in progress”.

    My RWNJ sister is one of that 16% that believe weird stuff about COVID vaccines, even though she’s vaccinated herself. And yeah, 16% seems too low.

  4. 4.

    Nicole

    I still can’t wrap my head around 2,000 deaths a day and politicians saying, “Welp, good enough; let’s go back to normal now!”

  5. 5.

    Baud

    @Nicole:

    Deaths are a lagging indicator.  If the virus disappeared tomorrow, you’d still have 2000 deaths per day from past infections.

  6. 6.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 26,701 new Covid-19 cases yesterday in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 3,138,215 cases. It also reports 39 deaths over the 17th and 18th, for an adjusted cumulative total of 32,240 deaths – 1.03% of the cumulative reported total, 1.11% of resolved cases.

    Malaysia’s nationwide Rt standss at 1.32.

    98 confirmed cases are in ICU, 55 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 11,744 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,888,194 patients recovered – 92.0% of the cumulative reported total.

    19 new clusters were reported yesterday, for a cumulative total of 6,676 clusters. 481 clusters are currently active; 6,195 clusters are now inactive.

    26,569 new cases today are local infections. 1328 new cases today are imported.

    The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 173,669 doses of vaccine on 17th February: 54,398 first doses, 1,544 second doses, and 117,727 booster doses. Tthe cumulative total is 65,702,191 doses administered: 26,440,967 first doses, 25,739,546 second doses, and 13,728,147 booster doses. 80.9% of the population have received their first dose, 78.8% their second dose, and 42.0% their booster dose.

  7. 7.

    New Deal democrat

    While Omicron remains, the Omicron wave is over. Nationwide in the US declined to below 120,000, their level just before the wave began. Deaths remain at 2200. Deaths should decline to about 400 in one month. The next target level for cases is 70,000, their lowest level during the Delta period.

    All 4 Census regions are down over 80%. The 10 worst States range from 45 (TN) to 90 (AK) cases per 100,000. The 10 best jurisdictions range from 14 (PR) to 25 (CT). Again, typically during 2020 most States were under 10. For comparison, all but one Canadian province are currently at 15 to 45 cases per 100,000. Deaths in Canada are down 40% from peak, although more than double their typical range during the pandemic so far.

    KS is higher week over week. CT is down less than 10%. NJ and SD are down less than 20%. All other States, except for the two with data dumps (ME and MD) are down generally over 30%. I will track to see if this spreads out, but for now further substantial declines look very likely.

    The jury of experts I track is still out on whether BA2 is a new variant of concern, or whether it is just more transmissible than typical Omicron.

  8. 8.

    mrmoshpotato

    44-49: Senate defeats Cruz (R-TX) amendment to end federal funding to schools and child care centers that enforce COVID-19 vaccine mandates.

    Good job, Shithead Ted!  What a deplorable, piece of shit, plague rat party.

  10. 10.

    Matt McIrvin

    Yesterday I was wondering about a less smooth decline in Hampshire County in western MA. I went to the Biobot sewage analysis site and noticed that they’re tracking variants– it appears that in Hampshire County the Delta wave isn’t quite over, and that may be what we are seeing as Omicron recedes.

  11. 11.

    Brantl

    I don’t think it’s possible to overestimate how many people, of both parties, hate OverFed Snuz.

  12. 12.

    Shakti

    Thank the deities for effective vaccines. If they didn’t exist I’d have anxiety every time I saw someone waltz into my work without wearing a mask, refusing to wear a mask or just using it as a chin strap and sniffling and coughing.

    I just smiled and nodded at the last person I saw who eschews things like allergy medication for only natural stuff to fight faucet nose and told her to wash her hands.

    Weirdly, ever since the pandemic started I’ve not had as many bad allergy days.

  13. 13.

    NotMax

    Locally,

    Hawaii Department of Health officials today reported 16 new coronavirus-related deaths and 650 new confirmed and probable infections statewide, bringing the state’s totals since the start of the pandemic to 1,290 fatalities and 233,155 cases.

    Thirteen of the latest deaths were on Oahu, two were on Maui and one was on Lanai.… Source

    The Hawaii Department Department of Health has confirmed 29 cases of BA.2, a new lineage of the COVID-19 omicron variant first detected in the islands through whole genome sequencing in January.

    In its latest variant report DOH’s Laboratories Division reported 29 cases of BA.2, more than triple the initial eight cases reported on Jan. 28.

    The latest 29 cases were detected through sequencing in samples collected between Jan. 6 and 30, according to the report.
    [snip]
    In addition to the 29 cases of BA.2, the division confirmed other omicron sublineages, including 423 cases of BA.1, 1,215 cases of BA.1.1, and one case of B.1.1.529. The report said, however, that classifications of omicron lineages are in flux.
    Source

  14. 14.

    Cameron

    Florida’s very own governor Ron DeSantis has come out in support of the Canadian trucker convoys.  To show his solidarity, maybe he should invite them down here to close down Miami and Orlando.

  15. 15.

    Baud

    @Shakti:

    Agreed. The vaccines are a godsend.  It’s too bad so many won’t take advantage of the miracle, but that doesn’t make the science any less inspiring.

  18. 18.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Cameron:

    To show his solidarity, maybe he should invite them down here to close down Miami and Orlando. 

    As if you need more reason to throw DeathSantis into the Atlantic, or launch him into the Sun.

  19. 19.

    NotMax

    @mrmoshpotato

    Cruz wasn’t alone in flinging ca-ca at the walls.

    One [defeated amendment] by Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, and several colleagues would have blocked existing federal vaccine requirements for the military, government employees and contractors and health care workers.… Source

  21. 21.

    Nicole

    @Baud: I get that, but it comes across as incredibly cavalier about 2000 unique individual lives (even if, according to the evidence presented by the HCAs, a lot of them were racist, homophobic and sexist a-holes).  And there’s still an entire cohort (the under 5s) who can’t be vaccinated.

  23. 23.

    opiejeanne

    Someone pointed out a couple of days ago, maybe it was here, that people who test positive with the home tests aren’t likely to report it to the local health board, they just quarantine for X number of days. Testing sewage is a good way to see if cases are rising or going down.

  24. 24.

    Baud

    @Nicole:

    I don’t know what’s caviler about it. Mitigation measures are appropriately based on future threats, not past occurrences.  One can disagree with the pace of relaxation, but I don’t see any basis for treating the existing death rate as relevant except to the limited extent of assessing future hospital capacity.

  25. 25.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    To be consistent, they really have to reject all the other vaccines and treatments that will spring from mRNA research

    Other U.S. firms working on groundbreaking mRNA vaccines and treatments include Gritstone Oncology and Gilead Sciences’ collaboration on a vaccine against HIV, and Kernel Biologics’ development of an mRNA-based therapeutic for cancer. Translate Bio is testing a treatment for cystic fibrosis, while Arcturus Therapeutics is developing mRNA vaccines for the flu and COVID-19, as well as therapeutics for cystic fibrosis and liver disease.

    They’re going to be doing a lot of research!

  26. 26.

    Baud

    @Kay:

    They will reject our science and then complain we’re not doing anything for them.

    ETA: and resentful that our lives are better because we made wise choices.

  27. 27.

    opiejeanne

    @Kay: Cystic Fibrosis. This is good news. We had a neighbor whose little boy had it, and managed to live into his early 20s but I remember when kids with it died by age 4.

  30. 30.

    Shakti

    @Baud: I thought the teams behind the Moderna and BioNTech or really any of the effective vaccines worldwide would’ve been up for Nobel Prizes. But what do I know?

  32. 32.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    Oh, please. None of them will pay attention. 90% of these people never researched a single medical treatment they ever received until this one, because Republican operatives coded it “liberal”.

    They’re free riders. They don’t contribute anything to advances – in anything- but when they come (in spite of their opposition) they reap the benefits. By the time they’re offered an mRNA-based treatment for liver disease or cystic fibrosis they’ll be on to screeching about something else.

  34. 34.

    Another Scott

    @Baud: Death numbers are probably the most accurate daily number (recognizing weekend issues).  Testing numbers have issues (home tests not reported, lags in PCR results).  Hospitalizations are constrained by capacity.

    Yes, it’s great that daily infections and hospitalizations are falling, and deaths do lag, but (IMHO) there’s far too much happy talk (still) about “natural immunity” (when lots of people have had Covid twice (e.g. Djokovic), and some infamous examples have died) and there are still tens of millions without vaccination.  We’ve seen this before.  We are in a better place, but the pandemic isn’t over and the population in general recognizes that.  We should be doing what we can to crush community spread (and improving data) while numbers are falling because there is no indication that there will not be future waves.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  35. 35.

    Baud

    @Another Scott:

    Death rates may be more accurate, but what relevance do they have to what current mitigation measures should be?  Death rates give a picture of the virus spread 3-6 weeks ago.  Even if testing and wastewater testing are less accurate, they aim to give the current picture of community spread.

  37. 37.

    Kay

    This happened yeterday:

    Mark Joseph [email protected]_DC · 12h
    Rejecting decades of precedent, Trump Judge Lee Rudofsky holds Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act has NO private right of action—meaning nobody except the U.S. Attorney General can bring a VRA lawsuit.
    This would render the law largely unenforceable.

    I think everyone knows when it gets to SCOTUS they’ll kill the rest of the Voting Rights Act. It’s why I’m glad Democrats took the vote. It was sophisticated take to say it was “doomed” and a “waste of time” but this is a bedrock issue for Democrats. If they want a long term, loyal base they have to stick to these principles. For some things it simply doesn’t matter if you’re in the majority or will win. You have to defend them.
    The sophisticated take at this moment is no one needs federal civil rights protections for voting- the John Roberts view- but that’s wrong and it will still be wrong next cycle and the cycle after that. You don’t need a right of action until…you do.

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On 2/17 Mainland China reported 40 new domestic confirmed (none previously asymptomatic) & 20 new domestic asymptomatic cases.

    Guangdong Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases. As the province does not breakdown recoveries between domestic & imported cases, I cannot track the count of active cases in parts of the province.

    • Zhuhai reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, worker at a aquatic foodstuff import company, found via regular screening. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all presumed Omicron) in the city.
    • Shenzhen reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases (all mild), all quarantine hotel workers & traced close contact already under centralized quarantine. The quarantine hotel cluster is confirmed to be Omicron BA.2. 2 Medium Risk residential buildings have been re-designated to Low Risk. 2 residential buildings & a shopping center are currently at Medium Risk.
    • Guangzhou did not report any new domestic positive cases
    • Dongguan reported 1 any new domestic confirmed cases, an employee at a market, found via regular screening. There currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city, a person who recently returned from out of province.
    • At Yunfu there currently are 7 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all part of the Omicron transmission chain spreading from Shenzhen.
    • At Huizhou there currently are 6 active domestic confirmed cases in the city, part of the Omicron transmission chain spreading from Shenzhen.
    • In the rest of the province there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed (1 each at Heyuan & Meizhou) cases remaining.

    Guangxi “Autonomous” Region did not report any new domestic positive cases. 14 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 259 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • At Baise 14 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 257 active domestic confirmed cases (all presumed Omicron) remaining in the city, most of whom are residents in the same village, all part of the transmission chain spreading from Shenzhen in Guangdong. 4 villages, 2 residential compounds & 1 business at Debao County have been elevated to Medium Risk. 1 village at Debao County is currently at High Risk, & 4 villages, 2 residential compounds, a business & a hotel there are currently at Medium Risk. 2 villages at Jingxi are currently at Medium Risk.
    • In the rest of the province there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed (1 each at Nanning & Chongzuo) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Chongzuo) cases remaining.

    At Shaoyang in Hunan Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, part of the transmission chain spreading from Shenzhen in Guangdong.

    Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 22 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 32 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.

    • Manzhouli in Hulun Buir did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 5 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 1 sub-district Is currently at Medium Risk.
    • Baotou reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, from mass screening.
    • Hohhot reported 21 new domestic cases, 6 at fever clinics or hospital intake, 12 are traced close contacts & 3 from mass screenings. There currently are 26 active domestic confirmed cases in the city (11 at New District, 7 at Saipan District, 3 each at Yuquan District & Tuhmut Left Banner, & 1 each at Muslim Quarter & Wuchuan County). 3 communities, 2 residential compounds & 2 villages have been elevated to Medium Risk. 3 communities, 4 residential compounds & 2 villages are currently at Medium Risk.

    At Tianjin Municipality 4 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed cases (all presumed Omicron). All areas of the city are now at Low Risk.

    Liaoning Province reported 9 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 123 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Huludao reported 9 new domestic confirmed cases, all at Suizhong County, all traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 120 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 1 village at Suizhong County is currently at High Risk, & a residential compound there is currently at Medium Risk.
    • At Shenyang there currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.

    At Shandong Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Jinan) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Liaocheng) cases in the province, all part of the transmission chain from the cold storage warehouses outbreak at Fengtai District in Beijing.

    At Datong in Shanxi Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining in the city.

    At Hebei Province there currently are 8 active domestic confirmed cases (3 at Xiong’an, 4 at Hengshui & 1 at Langfang) remaining in the province, all part of the transmission chain from the cold storage warehouses outbreak in Fengtai District in Beijing.

    At Heilongjiang Province 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed (all at Mudanjiang) & 33 active domestic asymptomatic (11 at Heihe, 19 at Mudanjiang & 3 at Qiqihar) cases in the province. 5 residential buildings at Heihe are currently at Medium Risk.

    At Shanghai Municipality there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.

    At Huanggang in Hubei Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city, part of the transmission chain from Hangzhou in Zhejiang.

    Jiangsu Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed & 12 new domestic asymptomatic cases (all presumed Omicron). There currently is 47 active domestic confirmed & 27 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.

    • Suzhou reported 4 new domestic confirmed & 10 domestic asymptomatic cases, 9 are traced close contacts & 5 are found from mass screening. There currently are 46 active domestic confirmed & 22 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 7 residential buildings & a tea house have been elevated to Medium Risk. 3 residential buildings have been elevated to Medium Rusk. 29 residential buildings, a dormitory, a business & a tea house are currently at Medium Risk.
    • Wuxi reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both traced close contact already under centralized quarantine since 2/15. There are currently 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all part of the transmission chain spreading from Suzhou.
    • Nantong did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, part of the transmission chain spreading from Suzhou.

    At Tongren in Guizhou Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, part of the transmission chain spreading from Huludao in Liaoning.

    At Henan Province 19 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 49 active domestic confirmed cases in the province. 

    Yunnan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 7 new asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed & 24 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province.

    • Honghe Prefecture reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 1 from voluntary testing & 2 are traced close contacts. 
    • Dehong Prefecture reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Ruili, 3 are tracked close contacts of the domestic confirmed case reported on 2/16 & from centralized quarantine while preparing for travel. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the prefecture, all at Ruili.
    • At Sipsongpanna Prefecture 1 active domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 5 active domestic confirmed & 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the prefecture.
    • Wenshan Prefecture reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, a traced close contact already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 14 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the prefecture, all at Malipo County. 1 village at Malipo County in Wenshan Prefecture has been elevated to Medium Risk.

    Imported Cases

    On 2/17, Mainland China reported 47 new imported confirmed cases (5 previously asymptomatic), 25 imported asymptomatic cases, 6 imported suspect cases:

    • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 8 confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), 3 Chinese nationals returning from Turkey, 2 each from Japan & Malaysia, & 1 from South Korea; 3 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national returning from Japan, & 1 foreign National each coming from Lebanon (via Istanbul) & Turkey
    • Shenzhen in Guangdong Province – 3 confirmed cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from South Korea & a Mainland Chinese resident returning from Hong Kong; 3 asymptomatic cases, a Chinese national returning from Indonesia & 2 Mainland Chinese residents returning from Hong Kong
    • Zhuhai in Guangdong Province – 3 confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), all coming from Hong Kong
    • Jiangmen in Guangdong Province – 2 confirmed cases, coming from Hong Kong
    • Foshan in Guangdong Province – 2 confirmed & 2 asymptomatic cases, all coming from Hong Kong
    • Zhongshan in Guangdong Province – 1 confirmed case, both coming from Hong Kong
    • Dongguan in Guangdong Province – 1 confirmed & 1 asymptomatic cases, all coming from Hong Kong
    • Huizhou in Guangdong Province – 1 confirmed case, both coming from Hong Kong
    • Shanghai Municipality – 13 confirmed cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Finland, Singapore & the US, 7 Mainland Chinese residents returning from Hong Kong, 2 Taiwanese residents coming from Taiwan, & a German national coming from Germany (via Singapore); 6 suspect cases, no information released
    • Xiamen in Fujian Province – 3 confirmed cases, a Chinese, a Malaysian & a Singaporean nationals returning from Singapore 
    • Fuzhou in Fujian Province – 3 asymptomatic cases, 2 coming from Japan & 1 from Indonesia
    • Chongzuo in Guangxi “Autonomous” Region  – 3 confirmed & 5 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Qingdao in Shandong Province – 2 confirmed cases, a Chinese national returning from South Korea & a Japanese national coming from Japan
    • Weihai Port in Shandong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, coming from South Korea
    • Changchun in Jilin Province – 2 confirmed cases, both coming from South Korea 
    • Yunnan Province (location not specified) – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Myanmar, via land border crossing
    • Kunming in Yunnan Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Thailand
    • Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 1 confirmed case, a Mainland Chinese resident returning from Hong Kong; 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Cambodia & Ethiopia
    • Dalian in Liaoning Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, no information released 
    • Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 each coming from Bangladesh & Hong Kong
    • Beijing Municipality – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released

    Overall in Mainland China, 84 confirmed cases recovered (38 imported), 55 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (51 imported) & 5 were reclassified as confirmed cases (all imported), & 2,164 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 1,423 active confirmed cases in the country (740 imported), 7 in serious condition (1 imported), 706 active asymptomatic cases (605 imported), 6 suspect cases (all imported). 30,046 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

    As of 2/17, 3,069.619M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 6.228M doses in the past 24 hrs.

    On 2/18, Hong Kong reported 3,629 new positive cases, 2 imported & 3,627 domestic. There are another ~ 7,600 cases who are preliminarily positive, awaiting confirmation. 

    On 2/18, Taiwan reported 67 new positive cases, 51 imported & 16 domestic.

  40. 40.

    Matt McIrvin

    Looking forward to another respite. Likely it won’t last. But we could have a few good months when we can do public stuff without being too freaked. We just need to be ready to adjust when the numbers go bad again.

    Case rates are frustratingly much higher just over the border in NH than they are here. That is not necessarily virtue rewarded and vice punished–the Omicron wave peaked much harder here on the MA side and we could well just have more people with prior Omicron infections, causing a more rapid decline. Omicron seems to have taken its time pushing through New Hampshire and Maine, as opposed to the instant bloom and sharp decline in more heavily populated areas. And northern Maine had a particularly brutal Delta wave in the fall which may be giving them a bit of extra cross-variant immunity, who knows (but the controlled studies seem to show that doesn’t amount to much)

    That said, vaccination data is spotty enough in NH that we don’t even really know how many people got boosted there.

  42. 42.

    debbie

    @germy:

    No better way to get them out of town!

    The party of family values, the party of the Child is now the Education Nazi Party? “No school for you!”

  43. 43.

    New Deal democrat

    @Another Scott:
    “there’s far too much happy talk (still) about ‘natural immunity’”

    Interesting you should mention that, because here is something I read just this morning from Dr. Eric Topol:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1494515820176633859?cxt=HHwWhsCjzYuOy70pAAAA

    “Natural Immunity + 1-shot is proving to be highly effective, durable, and no benefit w/ additional shots (as seen by 4 new studies this week)”

    One of the standout trends from Omicron is how many of the US States with low vaccination rates but high rates of Delta infections did better than most highly vaxxed States.

    As I read from another expert yesterday, the human immune system and the virus are co-evolving. So many people have been exposed, either repeatedly or through infection plus vaccination, that in the aggregate we are becoming more resistant. At a ghastly, totally unnecessary cost, but still.

    There will be more variants and more waves, but like Spanish flu they will probably wind up being progressively less deadly.

  44. 44.

    Soprano2

    @New Deal democrat: My county’s 7-day average per 100,000 was 117 as of Wednesday, so we’re well above the average in the U.S. Of course, we have counties here where only 25% of eligible people are vaccinated. They revised the death count upward – January went from 47 to 50, and February went from 1 to 11. The lowest the 7-day average since July 2020 was in April/May 2021, when we were in the 10-20 range. It really looked like we were almost there, then Delta hit us at the beginning of July 2021. I figure it’ll never be great here, because our area vaccination rate will never be good.

  45. 45.

    Another Scott

    @Baud: They are numbers that can inform the policy makers.  They can look at past trends and make inferences.  “Yes, numbers are going down, and deaths seem to have stopped increasing and are falling.  But we have seen these cycles before.  All the numbers are still too high: the US numbers are still too large a fraction of the world total; and still far too many people are unvaccinated.  We still need to be smart and continue the work to crush community spread while we continue to make sensible adjustments…”

    50,000 people dying a month is horrifying and policymakers shouldn’t sweep that under the rug.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  48. 48.

    Soprano2

    @Baud: They’ll need to pee somewhere else, too. They’d have to build an outhouse. I bet even the biggest MAGA idiots aren’t willing to do that.

    I looked at our city’s surveillance data on Covid; it’s interesting, the Omicron peak isn’t nearly as high as I would have thought it would be. Our highest Covid peaks were September 2020 and January 2021; they dwarf both Delta and Omicron’s peaks. Lots and lots of undetected Covid in my community, I guess, because that doesn’t track with testing data at all! Here’s the link to the site, it’s so cool. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/f7f5492486114da6b5d6fdc07f81aacf

  49. 49.

    Matt McIrvin

    @New Deal democrat:

    One of the standout trends from Omicron is how many of the US States with low vaccination rates but high rates of Delta infections did better than most highly vaxxed States.

    On the basis of case counts, perhaps (but one way to bring down case counts is to not test–people in high-vaccination areas were also testing themselves whenever they caught a cold). Since death and severe disease still almost exclusively happen among the unvaccinated, I would be surprised if they still do better once excess deaths for 2021-22 are tallied.

  50. 50.

    Soprano2

    @Shakti:Weirdly, ever since the pandemic started I’ve not had as many bad allergy days.

    Me too, regardless of whether I was wearing a mask or not. I have no explanation for it. I’ve barely noticed allergies at all, and I used to get flare ups every April and August.

  51. 51.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Soprano2: I have continued to have terrible allergies every spring, and it was really anxiety-making in 2020 and early ’21 when I knew a bout of COVID could easily be fatal.

    I have NOT caught a single cold since the beginning of COVID, and that used to be a regular fall/winter thing. Simple pandemic mitigation measures seem to have smashed that flat.

  52. 52.

    Soprano2

    @opiejeanne: It’s probably the best way to see what’s happening with all kinds of diseases, including Covid, because everyone uses the bathroom and it doesn’t depend on anyone getting a test. It will detect the asymptomatic cases. As I posted below, our testing data doesn’t match the wastewater monitoring at all!  I’ve heard people say they’ve never had Covid, and I want to ask “how do you know” because they could have had an asymptomatic case and never knew it.

    Wastewater monitoring like this has been used to figure out where the highest illegal drug use in a city is; they can sample manholes at different points to figure that out. It’s pretty cool.

  53. 53.

    New Deal democrat

    @Soprano2:

    “I figure it’ll never be great here, because our area vaccination rate will never be good.”

    Sad but true. You’ll probably get the respite that I think is shortly coming for everybody though.

    The RW propaganda about COVID vaccines is almost certainly going to spread to all the others. The few times I have confronted people about COVID vaccines being “experimental” with “What about the traditionally derived J&J vaccine? What about the polio vaccine?”, I get hit with “they haven’t been around long enough.”

    Like we should have given polio or German measles another 5 to 10 year run while we waited to see if the vaccines turned people into zombies.

  54. 54.

    Soprano2

    @Baud: I don’t know why you would think wastewater surveillance would be less accurate. If anything, it’s a lot more accurate than testing data because it picks up everything, including asymptomatic cases.

  55. 55.

    Matt McIrvin

    @opiejeanne: Biobot’s website shows wastewater data for a lot of individual counties across the country that are working with them:

    https://biobot.io/data/

    But there’s a lag of a week or more, and for the Boston area, the MWRA’s site is fresher:

    https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm

    This strikes me as probably the best “weather report” of the current level of risk that we have, better than case rates, if you live in a place that is doing this.

  56. 56.

    Another Scott

    @Baud: Because, like in the Monty Hall problem, it is more relevant information.

    E.g. A model:

    In addition to accurately modeling COVID-19 mortality trends under current policy sets, PIP can adaptively tailor forecasts to show the potential impact of specific policy changes, such as reopening schools or workplaces, implementing mask mandates, or relaxing shelter-in-place requirements.

    Ta-ta.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  57. 57.

    topclimber

    @Baud: Now that you are gone I can say you are dumb not to recognize that once the CDC gives the green light on removing mandates they can’t go back. So, not a scientific explanation, but a political one.

  58. 58.

    Soprano2

    @Matt McIrvin:One of the standout trends from Omicron is how many of the US States with low vaccination rates but high rates of Delta infections did better than most highly vaxxed States.

    That’s true here; you’d think there would have been a ton more hospitalizations and deaths based on the testing data, but when you look at the wastewater surveillance you see that the Delta wave was about the same as Omicron (or smaller, depending on which treatment plant’s data you look at), and neither one was as bad as September 2020 thru January 2021.

  59. 59.

    Soprano2

    @Matt McIrvin:This strikes me as probably the best “weather report” of the current level of risk that we have, better than case rates, if you live in a place that is doing this.

    Yes, it is, and most places are doing it. They already have to take samples every month, it was just a matter of doing another test and putting it on a web site. I posted a link to the state of MO site showing all the cities doing Covid monitoring. Every state is probably like that.

  60. 60.

    Scout211

    @Soprano2:

    I don’t know why you would think wastewater surveillance would be less accurate. If anything, it’s a lot more accurate than testing data because it picks up everything, including asymptomatic cases.

     

    I don’t know anything about the accuracy of wastewater testing. But I do know that  rural areas will not have their wastewater tested because we all have septic systems. It might be a small percentage compared to cities and towns,  but rural areas have a higher percentage of unvaccinated.

  61. 61.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Baud: ​
     

    Death rates give a picture of the virus spread 3-6 weeks ago.

    What’s the rush to get back to ‘normal’ when all ‘not normal’ really means is wearing a mask indoors around strangers?

  62. 62.

    Another Scott

    @Scout211: Excellent point.  Lots of suburban developments have septic systems too.

    Still, more high quality data is better.  And we know that COVID-19 is not going to be the last pandemic.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  63. 63.

    Steeplejack (phone)

    @NeenerNeener:

    I got an email from USPS just after midnight saying that my tests would be delivered Tuesday, and then I got one this morning saying that they are “out for delivery” today.

  64. 64.

    Baud

    @Soprano2: I don’t.  I was accepting Scott’s premise that it was.

     

    @Another Scott: I skimmed it. It seems to use  death rate to calculate the future course of the virus.  That makes sense because death rates tell you how deadly the virus is.  But it doesn’t tell me why the number of people presently dying impacts decisions on mitigation measures.  If deaths fall to zero but there is a new wave, no reasonable person would point to the zero death rate as relevant to the decision whether to wear masks.

     

    @topclimber:

    @lowtechcyclist:

    I’m not talking about what mitigation measures are appropriate.  I’m talking about the relevance of the number of people currently dying from past infections in making that decision.

  65. 65.

    Robert Sneddon

    Scotland — 7,056 new cases of COVID-19 and 16 new deaths of people who have tested positive reported. 960 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 with ten people in intensive care. Vaccinations continue slowly with most first vaccinations occurring in the 12-17 year old age group. Over 75% of the 18+ population in Scotland have now received a booster or third dose — some people with chronic illnesses or disabilities have received a full-strength “third dose” while the booster vaccination for most people has been a half-dose of Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccine.

    The usual reports of case numbers etc. in Scotland will not be published during weekends from now on. The reports on each following Monday will include the weekend’s numbers so they will appear to be a lot higher than before. As always the 7-day trend figures are usually more indicative of what’s happening regarding the spread of this disease and the impacts on healthcare.

  66. 66.

    topclimber

    @Baud: Perhaps the CDC wants to see what happens to case counts over the next couple of weeks as states lift mandates. Knowing, of course, that they stand little chance of jumping back to today’s federal guidelines if those numbers climb again.

  68. 68.

    Another Scott

    @Baud: Present numbers (symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, hospitalization, ICU capacity, deaths, R0, viral loads, wastewater concentrations, dominant variant, excess deaths, etc., etc.) and changes in those numbers, all give pieces of the puzzle.  Many of the numbers have lags for various reasons.  Plotting those numbers over time gives information that can be modeled to make predictions.  Those models can be checked and refined over time. And the predictions of those models can inform policy makers, and sensible citizens, on what policy changes and individual actions make sense.

    It’s the totality that matters because this is still a “novel” virus. No single number gives a clear picture.

    Yeah, Mr. Z died today because he was infected weeks ago and we cannot go back in time. But if models indicate that death rates today fit a case that says if you go Leeroy Jenkins tomorrow then 6 months from now you’ll have 50,000 more dead people than otherwise, then it’s good to know that. These are complex, interconnected systems.

    My $0.02, FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  69. 69.

    Tazj

    The governor of NY is considering lifting the mask mandate in schools. We got an email that the school my youngest goes to was sending home 2 rapid tests from NY state today. Next week the kids are on winter break. They’re  supposed to test the night before or the morning of their return to school and then again 3 days later. It’s emphasized that the testing is completely voluntary, but if you do test positive it must be reported.

    I’m happy to see that they’re going to have some more data to look at before making a decision.

    As a geezer, I’ll still be masking indoors for a while. I hope we’re nearing the end of this but I’m not optimistic yet.

  70. 70.

    fancycwabs

    You’d think with a 44-49 Senate we could have eliminated the filibuster, passed BBB, voting rights legislation, then put the filibuster back in place, all in the space of an afternoon.

  71. 71.

    Miss Bianca

    @Soprano2: Whereas I appear to have developed allergies I never had before, like to hair dye. (And of course, the darkest shades have the highest amount of allergens – lucky me!)

    Still, I may just have to keep up the mask wearing for the foreseeable future – my colds and sniffly things are only taking me down for part of a day, if that, rather than several days.

    I didn’t even bother getting a flu shot this season, and I *always* do that.

  72. 72.

    Sloane Ranger

    There were 51,899 new cases in the UK yesterday (Thursday). The rolling 7-day average is down 26.6.%. New cases by nation,

    England – 40,376 (down 2380)

    Northern ireland – 3027 (up 138)

    Scotland – 7144 (down 305)

    Wales – 1352 (up 228).

    Deaths – There were 183 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported yesterday. The rolling 7-day average is down 25.6%. 156 were in England, 1 in Northern Ireland, 22 in Scotland and 4 in Wales.

    Testing – 976,068 tests took place on Wednesday, 16th. The rolling 7-day average is down by 17.2%.

    Hospitalisations – There were 11,721 people in hospital and 359 on ventilators on Wednesday, 16th. The 7-day average for hospital admissions was down by 14.1% as of 13 February.

    Vaccinations – As of Wednesday, 16th, 91.4% of all UK residents aged 12+ had had 1 shot, 84.9% had had 2 and 65.9% had had a 3rd shot/booster.

  73. 73.

    Fair Economist

    South Africa posted new peaks in Omicron-wave deaths, both in yesterday’s cases, and in 7-day average.

    More than 2 months after the infection peak.

    South Africa has been reporting deaths promptly for the entire epidemic – no big lags with any of their 3 prior peaks. In all prior peaks, deaths had returned to the more-or-less baseline by this point, not massively increased.

  74. 74.

    NorthLeft12

    Report from Ontario;

    The Ottawa police, with a shitload of help, are finally moving in on the occupiers. It looks to be a peaceful removal so far, but there is always the potential for violence from these Morans.

    There is a long way to go to remove these guys. I am listening to a report right now that is emphasizing that the current removals and arrests are on the outskirts of the occupation, and they are well away (a couple of kilometres?) from the main group right in front of the Parliament buildings.

    Lots of discussion and debate over the use of the Emergencies Act to facilitate the removal of these clowns and the border blockades. It should have been able to be done without it, but the additional powers are primarily helping to cut off the substantial money supply these people are receiving. Part of the Act is that there must be a Parliamentary inquiry after the emergency is over to examine/review all issues related to the invocation, use, and impact of the Act. Kind of a big deal….and it should be.

    This has been a national embarrassment, and hopefully us Canucks won’t be as smug and superior about these kind of events in the future.

  75. 75.

    smith

    Regarding the idea that the states with low vax rates did better during the omicron surge than those with high vax rates, it all depends on what you mean by “doing better.”

    I ran some numbers on the data from Dec 1 up to yesterday – approximately the lifetime of the omicron surge – comparing total cases and deaths in the states plus DC with higher than the national vax rate (defined as =>65% of the total population fully vaxxed (n=22)), with those with less than 65% of the population fully vaxxed (n=29). To avoid giving equal weight to larger and smaller states, I pooled the populations of each group of states and totaled their reports of cases and deaths to arrive at rates per 100,000 for each group.

    For the omicron surge so far the High-Vax states have reported  8,872 cases and 25.53 deaths per 100K of population. The Low-Vax states have reported 8,388 cases and 38.08 deaths per 100K. In other words, the High-Vax states had about 6% higher number of cases than Low-Vax states, but only 67% of the deaths per capita compared to Low-Vax states.

    I based the vax rates on those reported by CDC on Feb 5, so they are somewhat higher than they were at the beginning of the omicron surge, but the rank order of the states has changed very little over the last 6 months, so calling them High-Vax and Low-Vax is probably accurate.

    Someone mentioned the tendency of Low-Vax states to have lower testing rates, so I ran the numbers on that as well: During the omicron surge, Low-Vax states reported 35,500 tests per 100K population, while High-Vax states reported 68,611 tests per 100K. The High-Vax states may have genuinely had more cases to test, but this discrepancy in testing rates seems disproportionate to the difference in reported case rates to me. I’m inclined to believe that Low-Vax states have not done as well during omicron in comparison with High-Vax states as the media would like you to believe, they’ve just done a better job of ignoring it.

  77. 77.

    Tenar Arha

    @Shakti: Me too. For a while I was still wearing my cloth masks last spring even after getting vaccinated. I noticed even when I’d stopped wearing them outdoors, if I’d pop one on whenever the pollen got particularly high after a few dry days in a row…well it was my easiest spring allergy season in years.

  78. 78.

    J R in WV

    @Soprano2: ​
     

    I don’t know why you would think wastewater surveillance would be less accurate.

    But a large proportion of people in suburban, exurban and rural areas do not contribute any waste to collection systems. They have septic systems with dispersal fields… like us.

    Our waste gets pumped about 150 yards to a level space where a network of 4 pipes spread the liquid into the soil. Designed by the installer and the county sanitarian working together. Needs occasional maintenance, like pump replacement every 8-10 years, but could be worse. No monthly bills, also.

  79. 79.

    Matt McIrvin

    @smith: Thanks for putting some numbers behind my spitballing!

    I suspect that high-vax areas were reporting a LOT of breakthrough infections that might have been dismissed as just a bad cold were a pandemic not on. (That would square with my experience of people I personally know.) There’s indication from controlled studies that breakthrough infections in vaccinated people are much better at inducing broad immunity than infections in the unvaccinated, so we also probably shouldn’t be surprised that these high-vax places that had a hellacious Omicron spike are also seeing it recede rapidly.

  80. 80.

    Tenar Arha

    @Matt McIrvin: I was saying the other day that I haven’t had a cold or the flu in > 2 years now. I used to reliably get sick about 2x/year, & they were always miserable bc of my allergies. It’s like whatever combination of masks & hand washing has done this for me, well I’d really like to keep them, you know?

  81. 81.

    scav

    Accurate at what may be a missing element in the confusion (and in what context / real-world conditions).  It’s entirely possible that all of the statements about wastewater testing are true for different combinations of those.

  82. 82.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Tenar Arha: There was NO flu season in the winter of 2020-21. The COVID mitigation measures we were doing then weren’t eradicating COVID–it was so contagious, all we could do was take the edge off (and that was before Delta and Omicron)… but they were absolutely annihilating influenza.

  83. 83.

    Unique uid

    @Soprano2:

    It’s probably the best way to see what’s happening with all kinds of diseases, including Covid, because everyone uses the bathroom and it doesn’t depend on anyone getting a test….

    A popular search engine says that 24% of homes in the US have a septic tank.  Probably mostly in rural areas, perhaps more MAGA there?​
     

    And now I see that Scout211 got there just two comments past where I stopped reading….

  85. 85.

    Brachiator

    @smith:

    For the omicron surge so far the High-Vax states have reported 8,872 cases and 25.53 deaths per 100K of population. The Low-Vax states have reported 8,388 cases and 38.08 deaths per 100K. In other words, the High-Vax states had about 6% higher number of cases than Low-Vax states, but only 67% of the deaths per capita compared to Low-Vax states.

    This is very interesting. Thanks.

  86. 86.

    Scout211

    @J R in WV:

    @Unique uid:

    Thank you.  I think it is always good to remind people that things are a bit different out here in the rural areas.

    I had no idea that 24% of US homes had septic systems.  That is much higher than I had thought.

    But the main point here (reiterated by both of you) is that wastewater testing is only accurate for the homes and businesses on the sewer system of the area that is being tested, not the entire area of the city or county being tested.

  87. 87.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Scout211: That would be one of the major differences if I moved a few miles north of here into the more wooded areas in Plaistow, NH: no city sewer, also overhead electric wires, so I’d have a septic system AND need to buy a generator ASAP in anticipation of long power outages every winter.

  88. 88.

    scav

    @Scout211: Yup, that’s pretty much a general observation.  No measurement should be assumed to represent the characteristics of an area other than where the data came from, especially if the two areas have or probably have relevant differences.   Additionally, measurements gathered over an area (and they have to be) will necessarily mask smaller scale variation in the phenomena.  Changing the areas of reporting / aggregation will probably give a different overall view of the distribution.  Rather like gerrymandering.  Welcome to the modifiable area unit problem and its luffly luffly friends.

  89. 89.

    Chris T.

    @smith:

    Someone mentioned the tendency of Low-Vax states to have lower testing rates, so I ran the numbers on that as well …. I’m inclined to believe that Low-Vax states have not done as well during omicron in comparison with High-Vax states as the media would like you to believe, they’ve just done a better job of ignoring it.

    Besides that, there’s the fact that Omicron is fairly good at evading vaccinations in terms of “establishing a beachhead” as it were in infecting someone, but despite this trick, the vaccination causes the disease itself to be much milder / less-dangerous / less-deadly.  So a highly vaccinated (by percentage) population can still spread the virus pretty effectively and still have a lot of of cases, but will have many fewer deaths (and almost certainly much less of the looming post-COVID syndrome in the rest of the century, which I think will predominantly affect those who caught any COVID variant without being vaccinated).

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