• Menu
  • Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Before Header

  • About Us
  • Lexicon
  • Contact Us
  • Our Store
  • ↑
  • ↓
  • ←
  • →

Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Democracy cannot function without a free press.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

We still have time to mess this up!

“But what about the lurkers?”

The revolution will be supervised.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

Trump should be leading, not lying.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

Anne Laurie is a fucking hero in so many ways. ~ Betty Cracker

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Not loving this new fraud based economy.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

People are complicated. Love is not.

Mobile Menu

  • Seattle Meet-up Post
  • 2025 Activism
  • Targeted Political Fundraising
  • Donate with Venmo, Zelle & PayPal
  • Site Feedback
  • War in Ukraine
  • Submit Photos to On the Road
  • Politics
  • On The Road
  • Open Threads
  • Topics
  • COVID-19
  • Authors
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Lexicon
  • Our Store
  • Politics
  • Open Threads
  • 2025 Activism
  • Garden Chats
  • On The Road
  • Targeted Fundraising!
You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Foreign Affairs Open Thread: The March February of Folly

Foreign Affairs Open Thread: The March February of Folly

by Anne Laurie|  February 21, 20229:32 am| 129 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Russia, War in Ukraine

FacebookTweetEmail

Ukrainians’ support for NATO membership has reached an all-time high amid the standoff between Russia and the West over Moscow's demand to permanently block Kyiv from the military alliancehttps://t.co/e2olJeKKCL

— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) February 20, 2022


What Russians planning “will be extremely violent. It will cost the lives of Ukrainians and Russians, civilians and military,” @JakeSullivan46 on NBC. US intel suggests “there will be an even greater form of brutality, because this will not simply be some conventional war.” https://t.co/l4iwVCFVVU

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 21, 2022

President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit over Ukraine, offering a possible path out of one of the most dangerous European crises in decades https://t.co/XeMQsTtBco pic.twitter.com/9C7u35AihE

— Reuters (@Reuters) February 21, 2022

Biden-Putin summit can't solve anything without Ukraine, Kyiv says https://t.co/sihDU3n9oT pic.twitter.com/UmF0dxa0be

— Reuters (@Reuters) February 21, 2022

The Kremlin dismisses talk of a Biden-Putin summit as “premature”. Says there are “no concrete plans” for a summit. Macron said last night he had secured Putin & Biden’s agreement “in principle” https://t.co/Xu8vzp0G6F

— Liz Sly (@LizSly) February 21, 2022

I love Ambassador Taylor's quick & tactful shutting down of Chuck Todd's nonsense. "No, Chuck." https://t.co/xP2k1LrqPo

— Laura Seay (@texasinafrica) February 20, 2022

Recall at the start of Putin's military buildup around Ukraine, people quoted Lenin about probing and finding mush or steel. They wanted a military buildup, macho posturing.

Putin found steel, but it wasn't what those quoters expected. https://t.co/C4jjplBkQc

— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) February 21, 2022

How can this question be asked? Forget even about Suddetenland. How can this question be asked by anyone? How can a crime be condoned and recognized in order to deter more crime? This is insane. Shameful. Horrific. Fuck this kind of journalism. https://t.co/p6ST3pdMcq

— Slava Malamud (@SlavaMalamud) February 20, 2022

He also claims that the takeover of Crimea wasn't a military operation. This is OANN-level nonsense. https://t.co/xmEblbz5wi

— Noah Shachtman (@NoahShachtman) February 20, 2022

the drumbeat of extremely specific intelligence continues https://t.co/WKxkTqxIQ4

— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) February 21, 2022

I applaud the Biden Administration and Intel Community for their willingness to declassify, in real time, our collection… from Moscow, to the ground in Dombass.

— William Evanina (@BillEvanina) February 21, 2022

U.S. embassy tells Americans: have an evacuation plan from Russia https://t.co/CSJXE7I43j pic.twitter.com/9WRScWPq51

— Reuters (@Reuters) February 21, 2022

FacebookTweetEmail
Previous Post: « Monday Morning Open Thread: Nothing But Sad Current Event News Out There…
Next Post: ACA Plan Quality and Insurer Structures »

Reader Interactions

129Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    February 21, 2022 at 9:37 am

    There were comments yesterday about reports that the long waiting game has demoralized the Russian troops. Hopefully, that’s true and will work to Ukraine’s advantage.

  2. 2.

    NotMax

    February 21, 2022 at 9:42 am

    Should worst come to worst, apart from the immediacy and horror of human carnage, I am extremely concerned that Chernobyl may be classified as a target of opportunity by invading forces.

  3. 3.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 9:43 am

    ⚠️ Putin meeting with security council just started. They are all sitting far away from him in a big room. https://t.co/n95qk6hbvD

    — Ilya Lozovsky (@ichbinilya) February 21, 2022

    The tweet has a YouTube link.

    Russian state media claims that RU forces destroyed two Ukrainian fighting vehicles that they allege crossed the border into Russia.

    One thing that I find astonishing is that Kremlin seems to think it needs 10,000 completely implausible pretexts before launching invasion https://t.co/lSMTnNhREz

    — Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) February 21, 2022

    Both via VladDavidzon

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  4. 4.

    Baud

    February 21, 2022 at 9:46 am

    @Another Scott:

    I’d be more amused by Russia’s flailing if it weren’t for the immense damage they could do if they go through with the invasion.

  5. 5.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 21, 2022 at 9:48 am

    @Baud: Part of what made Eisenhower go ahead with the invasion on Normandy on June 6, 1944 despite the marginal weather was the fact that troops could not be kept in readiness for the invasion on the ships and in secluded camps for ever.

  6. 6.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 9:49 am

    Fuck Chuck Todd. Just fuck him.

  7. 7.

    Baud

    February 21, 2022 at 9:50 am

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Right.  When did the buildup start?  It feels like it’s been going on forever.

  8. 8.

    Roger Moore

    February 21, 2022 at 9:52 am

    @Another Scott:

    One thing that I find astonishing is that Kremlin seems to think it needs 10,000 completely implausible pretexts before launching invasion

    I think they were hoping they’d be able to fake one or two big events that would convince people Ukraine was provoking them their allies in Donbass, thus forcing them to act.  Instead, US intel describing what they were planning wrong footed them.  Now they’re hoping they can concoct a whole series of events, and the sheer number will convince people they’re justified.  It’s not going to work, but I’m not surprised they’re still trying.  From their standpoint, the benefit of success and the low cost of trying justifies continuing, even with a low chance of success.

  9. 9.

    NotMax

    February 21, 2022 at 9:53 am

    @zhena gogolia

    Pace Bartleby, “I’d prefer not to.”

    ;)

  10. 10.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 9:54 am

    @Roger Moore:

    the sheer number will convince people they’re justified

    What people?

  11. 11.

    Baud

    February 21, 2022 at 9:55 am

    @Roger Moore:

    I’m just speculating here, but I think Putin at this point is kind of hoping he can drag this out long enough for the rest of the world to get bored with it. In general, not a bad idea, because it does seem like non-evil people tend to lose their focus pretty quickly.  But I don’t think it’ll work in this case.

  12. 12.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 9:56 am

    @Baud: And then he attacks?

  13. 13.

    Baud

    February 21, 2022 at 9:59 am

    @zhena gogolia: Yeah, I guess.  Or “annexes” parts of Ukraine. Or does something that he feel makes him look like a winner to Russians.

  14. 14.

    Yarrow

    February 21, 2022 at 10:00 am

    So the Olympics are over. Wasn’t an attack by Russia sort of on hold until they ended?

  15. 15.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 10:03 am

    @Yarrow: Now the CW seems to be pointing to tomorrow.

  16. 16.

    MomSense

    February 21, 2022 at 10:04 am

    @Baud:

    It also seems that mid season has come early, so that’s going to cause problems.

  17. 17.

    Yarrow

    February 21, 2022 at 10:04 am

    the drumbeat of extremely specific intelligence continues

    I’m impressed with how the Biden administration has so much specific intelligence and is dropping it at key times.

  18. 18.

    MomSense

    February 21, 2022 at 10:06 am

    @NotMax:

    That would piss off Belarus.

  19. 19.

    Roger Moore

    February 21, 2022 at 10:07 am

    @Baud:

    I’m just speculating here, but I think Putin at this point is kind of hoping he can drag this out long enough for the rest of the world to get bored with it.

    The problem with that idea is that the people likely to get tired of it fastest are his soldiers.  We’re able to sleep in the comfort of our beds every night.  Not to mention that he’s committed a large fraction of the Russian military to the area around Ukraine.  The longer he keeps that up, the more likely one of his other neighbors is to take advantage of the forces in their neighborhood being depleted.

  20. 20.

    Baud

    February 21, 2022 at 10:10 am

    @Roger Moore:

    Oh, I agree.  That’s one reason why I think it wouldn’t work in this case.  It’s just hard for me to understand Putin’s thinking with regard to timing.  I’m certainly no military expert, but this strikes me as one of the most ham-fisted military strategies I can recall.

  21. 21.

    oldster

    February 21, 2022 at 10:10 am

    Watching the canned rehearsal of implausible pretexts, thinking that Churchill still has it right:

    “jaw jaw is better than war war.”

  22. 22.

    hueyplong

    February 21, 2022 at 10:11 am

    A cynical person would say Putin is throwing out multiple rationales so Tucker Carlson can pick the one that suits him/FoxNews best.  Surely Putin realizes that he isn’t a master of reading the room without help when it comes to American opinion.  Trump isn’t president anymore.  Putin can’t just jerk the leash and bark instructions in a private conference.

  23. 23.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 10:13 am

    @Baud: Do you realize how badly he runs his country? For 22 years now? The only thing he’s good at is stealing elections and crushing protest.

  24. 24.

    Baud

    February 21, 2022 at 10:13 am

    @Roger Moore:

    The longer he keeps that up, the more likely one of his other neighbors is to take advantage of the forces in their neighborhood being depleted.

    Mongolia be like: We’re back, baby!

  25. 25.

    germy

    February 21, 2022 at 10:13 am

    So JD Vance got into a dustup with one of the retired generals.

    Vance accused the general of sipping “fine wine” while working class young guys were fed into the meat grinder in the Middle East.

  26. 26.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 10:14 am

    @hueyplong: I don’t get the impression Americans are paying much attention one way or another.

  27. 27.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 10:14 am

    @germy: Barry McCaffrey, no less.

  28. 28.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 10:16 am

    @germy:

    You piece of shit. He nearly lost his arm in Vietnam. He led the 24th ID in our massive assault into Iraq in Desert Storm. You…were briefly a fucking PAO in an air wing. I can’t wait to see your loser ass absolutely shamed on election day. Coward.— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) February 19, 2022

  29. 29.

    Baud

    February 21, 2022 at 10:16 am

    @zhena gogolia: He’s prety decent at spreading disinformation too.

    Anyway, while the optimum outcome by a mile is no invasion, the second best outcome is an invasion where Russia is thoroughly defeated by Ukraine.  Hopefully, Putin’s incompetance makes that a possibilty.

  30. 30.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 10:17 am

    @Baud: No, any invasion is going to be devastating for Ukraine.

    ETA: And Russia, too, but indirectly.

  31. 31.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 10:19 am

    They look like they are about to recognize Luhansk and Donetsk republics https://t.co/SKVtNuHsmh— Vladislav Davidzon (@VladDavidzon) February 21, 2022

    Not unexpected, but a significant escalation if it happens. And a way for them to claim that Ukrainian forces in Ukraine are actually in Russia. I have little doubt that the west will accept that, but I wonder how many of these provocations will accrue before “swift” sanctions are turned on.

    I assume that all the good guys have gamed these things out already.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  32. 32.

    The Thin Black Duke

    February 21, 2022 at 10:20 am

    Putin is playing checkers. The US is playing chess. With Trump gone, Putin isn’t the smartest guy in the room anymore.

  33. 33.

    Ben Cisco, MSCIS Padawan

    February 21, 2022 at 10:22 am

    @zhena gogolia: The same cast of idiots that would be onboard with or without the pretext.

    Including, unfortunately, our current Putin apologists in the GOP and the press.

  34. 34.

    germy

    February 21, 2022 at 10:22 am

    @zhena gogolia:

    Keeping tradition alive by killing a completely helpless man who has no chance of winning

    — Will Nas X-bot (@willsnackson) February 21, 2022

    Vance is doing so poorly in this race he’s deciding lashing out randomly is a strategy.

  35. 35.

    tokyokie

    February 21, 2022 at 10:22 am

    Seize every last asset that every last Russian oligarch has in a Western country, and within a week, Vladimir Vladimirovich will suffer a mysterious fall through an upper-floor window.

  36. 36.

    O. Felix Culpa

    February 21, 2022 at 10:23 am

    @The Thin Black Duke: Nicely put.

  37. 37.

    MattF

    February 21, 2022 at 10:24 am

    It’s been noted that Putin now has put most of Russia’s troops on Ukraine’s borders, and the numbers are increasing. Looks to me like he’s going for broke.

  38. 38.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 10:25 am

    Six people were arrested today in Moscow for trying to picket with anti-war/anti-govt signs. Sad to see how Russian civil society has been destroyed over the past decade. There’s no good reason to drag away these peaceful demonstrators. None. pic.twitter.com/8apbN0jbhh— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) February 20, 2022

  39. 39.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 10:26 am

    @zhena gogolia: Looks as if they’re in front of the Izvestia building.

  40. 40.

    jonas

    February 21, 2022 at 10:28 am

    @zhena gogolia: Hey, extremely stupid, ignorant people watch MTP, too. At least a couple of his questions have to represent that viewing segment.

  41. 41.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 10:28 am

    KyivIndependent news feed:

    17:13
    external Russian stock market plunges 12-15%. The market is sinking as the Russian Security Council is considering recognizing the Russian-occupied regions of eastern Ukraine as independent states on live TV.

    Money talks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  42. 42.

    lee

    February 21, 2022 at 10:29 am

    The invasion of Ukraine has got me thinking about something.

    We’ve got government folks working in Ukraine right now doing all sorts of things. There is a non-zero chance that if hostilities increase they’ll get killed either on purpose or by accident.

    Does the Dept of State (as an example) swap out folks when situations like this occur? I’m sure they reduce their head count. Do they have a ‘things might go pear shaped’ team they ship in to at least keep the lights on and forms filled out?

    Honestly I could see myself doing something like this.

  43. 43.

    The Pale Scot

    February 21, 2022 at 10:29 am

    @NotMax:

    Should worst come to worst, apart from the immediacy and horror of human carnage, I am extremely concerned that Chernobyl may be classified as a target of opportunity by invading forces.

    Since the prevailing westerlies would carry the majority of the radiation to Moscow..

  44. 44.

    JoyceH

    February 21, 2022 at 10:31 am

    I saw on the news that Russian disinformation about troop movements is failing because the locals keep posting real video on Tik-Tok. Hard for armies to sneak around these days. Wondering if the Ukrainians couldn’t just get some miles ahead of the tanks with bulldozers and dig some deep ditches.

  45. 45.

    JoyceH

    February 21, 2022 at 10:33 am

    @MattF: That’s what’s so weird – he’s got most of his troops involved and it’s nowhere NEAR enough to take and hold Ukraine.

  46. 46.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 10:36 am

    The National security council meeting concluded with Putin saying that he will be making a decision today https://t.co/aWCW8JYVwG— Vladislav Davidzon (@VladDavidzon) February 21, 2022

    Ms. Golgolia mentioned that the invasion may come soon according to rumors.

    Wednesday February 23 is “Defender of the Fatherland Day”. It’s also around the day when Boris Nemtsov was murdered.

    Grrr…,
    Scott.

  47. 47.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 10:37 am

    @Another Scott: I have no expertise! I just saw people saying that on twitter!

  48. 48.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 10:37 am

    @Another Scott: He was murdered on Feb. 27, accdg to Wikipedia.

  49. 49.

    Roger Moore

    February 21, 2022 at 10:38 am

    @Baud:

    It’s just hard for me to understand Putin’s thinking with regard to timing.

    The way to think about it is that we’re already at war, even though the shooting hasn’t started.  Putin expected to be able to start the shooting part of the war on favorable terms by winning the information war leading up to it.  His basic plan was to isolate Ukraine from potential allies, destabilize it internally by stoking existing divisions, and then create a provocation that would justify whatever military action he wanted.

    You can see why he thought this would work.  He’s done it before, and his opponents didn’t even realize the war had started until they were already well on their way to defeat.  The difference in this case is that NATO intelligence figured out what was happening early enough to counter-attack, and NATO’s capabilities have been far more impressive than Putin expected.  Instead of having the war mostly won before the shooting started, he’s actually losing the information war.  He doesn’t want to start the shooting on unfavorable terms, so he’s holding off.  Maybe he’ll be able to pull off some big information win that will let him start the war on favorable terms, but he’s either going to be forced to retreat before the shooting starts or start it on much less favorable terms than he hoped.

  50. 50.

    pajaro

    February 21, 2022 at 10:38 am

    @Another Scott:

    So is it possible that plan B for Putin is to recognize the breakaway areas in Ukraine as separate states, like he did in Georgia with Abhazia and South Ossetia and overtly provide aid to them, but not attempt to engage directly with Ukrainian forces in the rest of the country?

  51. 51.

    lee

    February 21, 2022 at 10:39 am

    @MattF: Here’s my wild-ass guess:

    Russian forces are already in Ukraine. They have been occupying Crimea for 8 years now. Putin is doing this so that when he backs down from taking more Ukrainian land he hopes that the current occupation becomes the norm and he keeps Crimea.

  52. 52.

    Kathleen

    February 21, 2022 at 10:39 am

    @zhena gogolia: No wonder he has won Rethuglican hearts!

  53. 53.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    February 21, 2022 at 10:39 am

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    About 20 to 25 years ago or so, I’d been appointed as guardian ad litem in a guardianship proceeding for an old gent suffering Alzheimer’s. He’d been a senior level engineer in his working days, nattily turned out and well-spoken.

    Couldn’t tell you what year it was, what he’d eaten for breakfast or remember my name a few minutes after I gave it BUT…

    …he’d been a young major on the SHAEF planning staff, working with Eisenhower on the D-Day invasion. Could tell you who was there and who was in what rooms as each decision was made. Honestly, I wish I had put him on a recorder just to get those incredibly sharp recollections.

  54. 54.

    dmsilev

    February 21, 2022 at 10:39 am

    @JoyceH:  There are also several commercial outfits with “spy” (i.e. imaging) satellite constellations. Pretty easy for a news organization or whatever to source their own imagery of the region and say “look: tanks!”, without having to tell their audience “trust the US intelligence community”.

  55. 55.

    zhena gogolia

    February 21, 2022 at 10:39 am

    @pajaro: That sounds like a possible scenario. I hope.

  56. 56.

    Roger Moore

    February 21, 2022 at 10:42 am

    @tokyokie:

    Seize every last asset that every last Russian oligarch has in a Western country, and within a week, Vladimir Vladimirovich will suffer a mysterious fall through an upper-floor window.

    Depends on the country.  The place this would be most devastating is the UK, but they’re going to be very reluctant to cause the London property market to crash, even though that would actually be a huge win for working and middle class Londoners.

  57. 57.

    topclimber

    February 21, 2022 at 10:42 am

    I wonder whether part of Putin’s calculus is the asymmetry of the economic warfare that follows an invasion.

    As I get it, Putin’s big ace is cutting off energy supplies to Ukraine and the rest of Europe. With winter almost over, perhaps that’s not much of a threat over the next 6-8 months. There would still be negative economic consequences for the West, but no one freezing.

    Whereas Western financial sanctions will hit almost immediately–and in ways he cannot be sure he knows.

  58. 58.

    Cliosfanboy

    February 21, 2022 at 10:46 am

    @lee: One of my friends works in the embassy in Kiev. His family were sent home. He’s still there.

  59. 59.

    Roger Moore

    February 21, 2022 at 10:47 am

    @JoyceH:

    That’s what’s so weird – he’s got most of his troops involved and it’s nowhere NEAR enough to take and hold Ukraine.

    The goal most likely isn’t to take and hold Ukraine.  The goal is most likely to install a puppet government after capturing and imprisoning or executing as many pro-Western leaders as possible.  I’m not 100% sure if they’ll annex Donbass or let it stay with their puppet government.

  60. 60.

    dmsilev

    February 21, 2022 at 10:47 am

    @topclimber: That thought occurred to me as well. Also, with regards to the seasons, he really has to either pull the trigger while the ground is still frozen or once the thaw begins wait another couple of months until the mud dries out.

  61. 61.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 21, 2022 at 10:48 am

    @zhena gogolia: you made me look. He actually tried to both-sides the US and Russian governments. Amazing.

  62. 62.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    February 21, 2022 at 10:48 am

    Sort of shades of 1914 – Austria-Hungry was advised by Germans to ether invade Serbia before Serbia’s allies could decided what to do so the Serbia allies would be presented with a fait accompli , or just drop it.  Instead Austria-Hungry dithered, Serbia  allies got organized and then, once it was clear Russia would go to war to support Serbia, Austria-Hungry invaded anyway starting WWI.

    This sounds like Putin is channeling his inner Conrad von Hotzendolf.

  63. 63.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 10:49 am

    @pajaro: I think that is part of the plan, but he could have done that at any time, IMHO.  Everyone knows that Russian forces have been in the east for going on 8 years.  He could perhaps have ramped that up with little blowback if he did it less overtly.

    No, I fear that his aim is to replace the government in Kyiv.  He’s hoping that everything changes if a government is friendly to him, rejects the EU and NATO, and becomes “compliant” like Belarus.  “It’s not an invasion!  We were invited!!1”  I don’t know his timeline (obviously), but that has to be his goal.

    I don’t know if he thinks time is on his side and that the West will tire, but I have to hope that Biden and NATO have planned for a creeping-coup type of situation.  (I.e. sitting in Donbas and Luhansk for a few weeks/months, then Ukraine’s leadership suddenly suffering some crisis, then some friendly puppet claiming to take over and wanting help “to restore stability” and suchlike from VVP.)

    We’ll see.  :-(

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  64. 64.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    February 21, 2022 at 10:50 am

    From where I’m standing (a little ways off to the southeast, but a little close for comfort if a wider war breaks out), it looks like old V.V. may perceive some sort of pressure from some direction that we’re not aware of here in the jackaltariat. Is he trying the “short victorious war to stem the tide of revolution” gambit, the wag-the-dog strategy to distract from some internal political pressure? Does Kyiv falling further out of Moscow’s orbit have some immediate adverse effect on Putin, or maybe his backers? Putin looks from our perspective like he’s domestically secure at the top of the power pyramid, but how secure is he?

    What the hell is the scenario that will be averted by invading Ukraine without any viable diplomatic cover?

  65. 65.

    Miss Bianca

    February 21, 2022 at 10:51 am

    Is it bad that every time I see the word “Dombass” my brain reads it as “Dumbass”?

    Yes, it is bad, I know it.

  66. 66.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 21, 2022 at 10:53 am

    @Miss Bianca: Technicality, I know, but it’s “Donbas” – with an N and, in the preferred transliteration from Ukrainian, only one S.

  67. 67.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    February 21, 2022 at 10:53 am

    @Roger Moore:

    According to Glenn Greenwald, neither ethnic minorities, religious minorities nor the working class/working poor are entitled to protection from the uncriticizable firehose of ethno-nationalist and economic glibertarian  propaganda from the oligarchic forces on the right. Their only recourse is to meekly say “we don’t suck, truly, don’t smash us” while not criticizing the content of the torrents of all the paid for torrents of free speech directed at them.

    Sure woulda been nice if those NSA programs that Snowjob blew up could identify the malefactors.

  68. 68.

    Miss Bianca

    February 21, 2022 at 10:54 am

    @Gin & Tonic: No wonder I’m confoozled. Or, “Who’s the Dumbass now?”

  69. 69.

    Bill

    February 21, 2022 at 10:56 am

    I have read that crimea is majority ethnically russian while donbass and the eastern regions in ukraine are not majority ethnically russian. Is this correct ?

  70. 70.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 21, 2022 at 10:58 am

    @Another Scott:

    No, I fear that his aim is to replace the government in Kyiv.

    I see this a lot, and I don’t understand it. “The government” in a parliamentary democracy with a population of 40 million is a large thing. Then you have 24 oblasts, each with its own administrative structure. Let’s say you install a pliant President and Prime Minister, then what? You have a 450-member legislature, you have myriad departments and agencies, and in every one you can count on about 80% of the people to be vehemently opposed to Russia. How do you run this?

  71. 71.

    hueyplong

    February 21, 2022 at 10:58 am

    I was really going to be anxious until I knew G Greenwald’s position on all this.

  72. 72.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 21, 2022 at 11:00 am

    @dmsilev: They can’t just stay at the border until June.  Logistically, they need a go order soon or they will need to pull back to some degree.  Feeding and supply an army of that size in the field is a big task.  The armored and wheeled vehicles are going to need more than field maintenance.  The soldiers themselves will start to get stale from being at full readiness and not really training.    Once it gets muddy, all of those things will be worse.

  73. 73.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 21, 2022 at 11:01 am

    @pajaro: If he recognizes the DNR and LNR, then he’s stuck paying the bill. There are plenty of Ukrainians outside those areas who will say (quietly) let him have them. They’re a basket case anyway.

  74. 74.

    Kalakal

    February 21, 2022 at 11:02 am

    @Roger Moore: It would also have a devastating effect on Tory party funding and that of many MPs

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/06/labour-calls-on-tories-to-return-money-from-donors-linked-to-russia

  75. 75.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    February 21, 2022 at 11:03 am

    @Gin & Tonic:

    “We are all ethnic cousins with a similar language and much shared history dating back to before the writing of Primary Chronicle 1200 years ago. Together, we can improve life for the people of this region of the Motherland.”

  76. 76.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 11:03 am

    @Gin & Tonic: I’m no expert, obviously, but my assumption is that Yanukovich II would try to find a way to impose rule from the top.  Suspend the Constitution (or equivalent), attempt to remove the opposition, etc.

    My impression is that VVP thinks he can impose his will on Ukraine, and ultimately that means controlling the government there.

    Thanks for the pushback.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  77. 77.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 21, 2022 at 11:03 am

    And there it is: Volodin’s official request as speaker of lower house for Putin to recognize D/LNR.
    Now comes speaker of upper house.
    Right up the chain—stunning, almost Stalinist choreography.
    — Dan Peleschuk (@dpeleschuk) February 21, 2022

  78. 78.

    Frank Wilhoit

    February 21, 2022 at 11:04 am

    @Roger Moore: This is one reason why — past the Talking Phase — we do not have as many allies as we think we do.  Recipients of Russian money or gas: NOT allies.  Hungary and Poland: NOT allies.  If Putin pulls the trigger, NATO will crumble.  That is his long game, if he has one, which he may not.

  79. 79.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 21, 2022 at 11:07 am

    @Frank Wilhoit: I disagree.

  80. 80.

    MattF

    February 21, 2022 at 11:07 am

    @Gin & Tonic: You run it on the Soviet model. Ukraine would have a government that is a smaller-scale replica of the current Russian government— thieves, thugs, etc. And a Genius of the People in charge.

    ETA: Or perhaps just declare that Ukraine is part of Russia.

  81. 81.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 21, 2022 at 11:07 am

    @Another Scott: A lot has changed since Yanukovych. Again, it’s a nation of 40 million over nearly a quarter-million square miles, and 75-80% don’t want you there under any circumstances. That’s a difficult problem.

  82. 82.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 21, 2022 at 11:08 am

    @Frank Wilhoit: Poland will defend Ukraine, absolutely.

  83. 83.

    Roger Moore

    February 21, 2022 at 11:09 am

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    One thing that has to have the generals on tenterhooks is what happens if there’s a thaw after the invasion but well before they reach their objectives.  They aren’t going to be running a blitzkrieg attack through deep mud, but their plans will have been revealed and their troops exposed.

  84. 84.

    Roger Moore

    February 21, 2022 at 11:12 am

    @MattF:

    The question is how many Russian troops Putin would need to lend his Ukrainian puppet to keep things under control.  I think it would be a prohibitive number, and they’d need to be there for a good long time.

  85. 85.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 21, 2022 at 11:12 am

    Nataliya Vasilyeva @Nat_Vasilyeva 54m

    Sergey Naryshkin, head of Russia’s foreign intelligence agency SVR, in a stunning exchange with President Putin said stuttering he supports “incorporating Donetsk and Luhansk into Russia.”
    “We’re not talking about it yet,” Mr Putin interrupted him.

  86. 86.

    ThresherK

    February 21, 2022 at 11:13 am

    @Another Scott:Ukrainians..crossed the border, on purpose, to be sold as invading  Russia?

    Great. Putin is creating his own Gleiwitz Incident. I mean, that’s always a good look.

  87. 87.

    germy

    February 21, 2022 at 11:14 am

    May the aggressor’s schemes be thwarted, and his ambitions turned to ash.

    May God damn the architect of this war.

    — Mac William Bishop (@MacWBishop) February 20, 2022

  88. 88.

    MattF

    February 21, 2022 at 11:15 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Trying to ingratiate himself with the Boss.

  89. 89.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 11:15 am

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Naryshkin, who seems very, very nervous, says that LNR and DNR should be incorporated into Russia. Putin says – whoa, we're not talking about that, only recognizing independence. Can't want to see if/when this idea comes back again in a bit.

    — Hannah Thoburn (@HannahThoburn) February 21, 2022

    Yup. :-(

    Interesting thread.

    (via VladDavidzon)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  90. 90.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 21, 2022 at 11:17 am

    @MattF: Forty million people who don’t want to be a part of it.  It’s not that easy.

  91. 91.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 11:17 am

    @Roger Moore: IIRC, the very rough rule of thumb number is 1 soldier for around 70 people.  So around 570,000.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  92. 92.

    Kalakal

    February 21, 2022 at 11:20 am

    @Frank Wilhoit: I think you’re overstating it. Certainly as far as the UK goes, the economic hit from trashing the top end of the property market is nothing compared to what a pissed off US govt could do. If Putin goes ahead the ensuing bloodbath would make being seen to  side with Russia about as popular as anthrax to UK voters of any party. The Tories would be distancing themselves from oligarchs at warp 10

  93. 93.

    Baud

    February 21, 2022 at 11:20 am

    @Another Scott:

    So double the average class size.

  94. 94.

    Roger Moore

    February 21, 2022 at 11:24 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: ​

    @Another Scott: ​
     
    IOW, Putin is having his lackeys propose annexation so he looks reasonable by only supporting independence.

  95. 95.

    hueyplong

    February 21, 2022 at 11:25 am

    Not sure the Poles have a long history of being cool with whatever Russia wants.

  96. 96.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 11:25 am

    @Baud: Yup.

    I saw that number when I was looking into the pre-Iraq invasion testimony.  (No time to dig it up again, but) Some article I found said it went back to the US Sector occupation of Germany.  A lot has changed since then in warfare, but it still seems like a sensible ballpark estimate.

    It’s extremely easy for armies and air forces to break things these days, but it’s still really hard for occupiers to get individual people to do what they want.  That takes a large, visible presence of people around them all the time.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  97. 97.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 21, 2022 at 11:27 am

    @MattF: Even under Stalin, Ukraine was nominally independent, with its own seat at the UN.

  98. 98.

    Brachiator

    February 21, 2022 at 11:31 am

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I see this a lot, and I don’t understand it. “The government” in a parliamentary democracy with a population of 40 million is a large thing. Then you have 24 oblasts, each with its own administrative structure. Let’s say you install a pliant President and Prime Minister, then what?

    How should this affect US or NATO decisions with respect to Putin’s aims?

  99. 99.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 11:32 am

    It looks like the FORTE11 USAF Global Hawk (surveillance drone) is leaving Sicily and heading back to Ukraine.

    Live – FlightRadar24

    [eta] Or maybe it’s doing something else. It wasn’t showing up at all for me earlier today.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  100. 100.

    The Pale Scot

    February 21, 2022 at 11:34 am

    @Another Scott:

    What’s this Fatherland I keep hearing now and days, It always been Mother Russia as far as I can remember.

  101. 101.

    Thor Heyerdahl

    February 21, 2022 at 11:38 am

    @Frank Wilhoit: Poland being a prickly pain in the ass with the EU is not the same as supporting Putin. They’ve been in this situation with Russia multiple times over the last 500 years… and with the Smolensk plane crash happening just over a decade ago (which was supposed for a commemoration of the Katyn massacre 82 years ago), Russian support would be a no go.

  102. 102.

    HinTN

    February 21, 2022 at 11:39 am

    @Another Scott:

    Money talks.

    There’s the other half of that assertion, too.

  103. 103.

    Leto

    February 21, 2022 at 11:42 am

    @Another Scott: opposite. It’s returning from Ukraine. It’s currently circling, waiting to land.

  104. 104.

    Yarrow

    February 21, 2022 at 11:42 am

    @zhena gogolia:

    I don’t get the impression Americans are paying much attention one way or another.

    Agreed. However I do think it has broken through somewhat. A friend who never pays any attention to the news but knows I do asked me what was going on with Russia and Ukraine the other day. This person is probably the most opposite of a news junkie type of person you could imagine. If it’s broken through to that kind of person people at least know something is happening even if they don’t know what.

  105. 105.

    debbie

    February 21, 2022 at 11:46 am

    @Baud:

    Late last night on the BBC, they were talking about “face-saving” strategies for Putin. Fuck that. Losing his face should be the price to pay for what Putin’s subjecting all of Europe and Russia to.

  106. 106.

    artem1s

    February 21, 2022 at 11:46 am

    @Baud: ​
     
    I think Putin at this point is kind of hoping he can drag this out long enough for the rest of the world to get bored with it. to effect the outcome of the midterm elections.
    In my mind, it’s not coincidental that he has chosen to ramp up the conflict over Ukraine right at the beginning of Biden’s second year in office. Also just when the details of the conspiracy surrounding the insurrection are starting to come out. The GOP needs some BUTHEREMAILS or BENGHAZI-911!!!!!!!!!!!! to use in their campaign ads. Putin wants a soft on Russia GOPer in the WH and if he can’t have that, he’s going to do everything he can to marginalize the power of the executive branch. Losing the Senate and having Moscow Mitch back in charge would be an enormous face saver for him.
    Expect GOPers to be screeching ‘war monger’ and ‘you lie’ from the house floor during the SOTU speech when Ukraine comes up.

  107. 107.

    New Deal democrat

    February 21, 2022 at 11:48 am

    @Baud:

    Lawyers have a rule of thumb in litigation: the party who asks for settlement negations first is the weakling. Putin apparently asked for a summit with Biden. He is worried.

    As others have said, every day Russia doesn’t invade, the weaker the situation for Putin.

    Which means that not only can Biden and the West categorically rule out any concessions, but they can press for concessions themselves, most particularly, Ukraine’s right to join NATO, with the territorial particulars of that right being what Putin is left to negotiate.

  108. 108.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 11:48 am

    @Leto: ?

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  109. 109.

    debbie

    February 21, 2022 at 11:49 am

    @germy:

    Would this be the same kind of “fine wine” J.D. keeps in stock in his German Village home?  ?

  110. 110.

    Miss Bianca

    February 21, 2022 at 11:50 am

    @Kalakal:

    The Tories would be distancing themselves from oligarchs at warp 10

    You think? I mean, I’d like to think so, but these are the Tories we’re talking about here.

  111. 111.

    trollhattan

    February 21, 2022 at 11:50 am

    Biden/Putin summit will end with Biden announcing withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukraine border after joint agreement that Glenn Greenwald is a “ginormous annoying dick-head and don’t even get us started on that fucking idiot Bari Weiss…”

    TBogg, predicting Biden and Putin find common ground at long last.

  112. 112.

    debbie

    February 21, 2022 at 11:53 am

    @JoyceH:

    Social media as a source for good!  ?

  113. 113.

    hueyplong

    February 21, 2022 at 11:53 am

    @artem1s: If Putin were really just screwing with the midterms I’d call this a case of premature escalation because I don’t think he can last that long.

  114. 114.

    jonas

    February 21, 2022 at 11:54 am

    @germy: Vance spent the weekend getting his ass dragged from one end of the internet to the other and back again for that comment, mostly by vets pointing out that McCaffrey has multiple purple hearts and kids that served under him in Iraq. Did he even delete it?

  115. 115.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 11:54 am

    KyivIndependent news feed:

    18:20
    external Putin’s Security Council meeting could be pre-recorded. Russian President Vladimir Putin held the meeting to discuss recognizing the Russian-occupied parts of eastern Ukraine as independent states. The meeting was supposedly streamed in real-time, however, independent Russian media outlet TV Rain (Dozhd) reported that the watch of one of the council members was five hours behind the current time in Moscow.

    Yet another reminder that one should never blindly accept video as being authentic these days.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  116. 116.

    debbie

    February 21, 2022 at 11:57 am

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Martial law?

  117. 117.

    debbie

    February 21, 2022 at 12:01 pm

    @Another Scott:

    Putin’s pointing a gun at him under the table.

  118. 118.

    trollhattan

    February 21, 2022 at 12:02 pm

    @Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: ​Twenty bucks says Glem supports the Burmese military junta because “Those Muslims had it coming.”

    Speaking of, interesting times at the ICJ and genocide charges filed by “The Gambia” against Myanmar over their treatment of the Rohyngia. IIUC the junta’s defense has been basically “Gambia, they’re not even a real country, yo.”

  119. 119.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    February 21, 2022 at 12:13 pm

    @Miss Bianca: Me too!

  120. 120.

    dmsilev

    February 21, 2022 at 12:17 pm

    @trollhattan: Maybe the US and Russian governments can find common ground by announcing a mutual statement of “we all hate Ted Cruz”.

    Worth a try.

  121. 121.

    MattF

    February 21, 2022 at 12:27 pm

    @dmsilev: And they’d get 99 members of the Senate to sign on.

  122. 122.

    Ken

    February 21, 2022 at 12:31 pm

    @MattF: And the usual 150% of the Duma would sign on.

  123. 123.

    Kalakal

    February 21, 2022 at 12:31 pm

    @MattF: bipartisanship!

  124. 124.

    kindness

    February 21, 2022 at 12:35 pm

    @Frank Wilhoit: Buddy….stop listening to Russia Today or the American version Fox News.  Nato has been strengthened by all this sabre rattling by Vlad.

  125. 125.

    cain

    February 21, 2022 at 12:38 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Never mind that Russian forces have spilledf Ukrainian blood. I don’t think that’s going to go down well with the majority populace if a new govt just shrugs and say it’s time to move on and love our Russian neighbors.

  126. 126.

    hueyplong

    February 21, 2022 at 12:42 pm

    @kindness: I’m with Frank.  I also sick of shenanigans by Moose and Squirrel.

  127. 127.

    Another Scott

    February 21, 2022 at 12:53 pm

    @hueyplong: Hey!  Moose and Squirrel are the good guys!!1

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  128. 128.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    February 21, 2022 at 1:26 pm

    It occurred to me; watch, with the Ukraine the Anti Vaccine crazies will stop because they aren’t getting attention.  And I got me wondering; Putin did a lot to create the World Wide Right Wing Paranoid movement and his own monster came back and bit him on the ass with Covid running amok in the Russian Federation. Maybe Putin real goal in the Ukraine is to distract his own domestic crazies and have an excuse to pressure the Russian population to get vaccinated.

  129. 129.

    Ksmiami

    February 21, 2022 at 1:41 pm

    @Frank Wilhoit: Wrong Wrong Wrong Wrong. Putin’s actions have reinforced the need for NATO and a strengthening alliance. Europe isn’t America- they have more recent memories of war-torn life and have no interest in going back to that. And domestically, Fox and it’s adherents are about to be known as a fifth column…

Comments are closed.

Primary Sidebar

On The Road - Winter Wren - North of Quebec City (part 2 of 3) - Cap Tourmente and on the way to Tadoussac 2
Image by Winter Wren (5/13/25)

Recent Comments

  • Gravenstone on MAHA Slap Fight! (Open Thread) (May 13, 2025 @ 4:11pm)
  • Jay on News of the Weird Open Thread (May 13, 2025 @ 4:07pm)
  • suzanne on News of the Weird Open Thread (May 13, 2025 @ 4:07pm)
  • Llelldorin on News of the Weird Open Thread (May 13, 2025 @ 4:06pm)
  • narya on News of the Weird Open Thread (May 13, 2025 @ 4:05pm)

PA Supreme Court At Risk

Donate

Balloon Juice Posts

View by Topic
View by Author
View by Month & Year
View by Past Author

Featuring

Medium Cool
Artists in Our Midst
Authors in Our Midst
War in Ukraine
Donate to Razom for Ukraine

🎈Keep Balloon Juice Ad Free

Become a Balloon Juice Patreon
Donate with Venmo, Zelle or PayPal

Meetups

Upcoming Ohio Meetup May 17
5/11 Post about the May 17 Ohio Meetup

Calling All Jackals

Site Feedback
Nominate a Rotating Tag
Submit Photos to On the Road
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Links)
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Posts)
Fix Nyms with Apostrophes

Hands Off! – Denver, San Diego & Austin

Social Media

Balloon Juice
WaterGirl
TaMara
John Cole
DougJ (aka NYT Pitchbot)
Betty Cracker
Tom Levenson
David Anderson
Major Major Major Major
DougJ NYT Pitchbot
mistermix

Keeping Track

Legal Challenges (Lawfare)
Republicans Fleeing Town Halls (TPM)
21 Letters (to Borrow or Steal)
Search Donations from a Brand

PA Supreme Court At Risk

Donate

Site Footer

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Comment Policy
  • Our Authors
  • Blogroll
  • Our Artists
  • Privacy Policy

Copyright © 2025 Dev Balloon Juice · All Rights Reserved · Powered by BizBudding Inc

Share this ArticleLike this article? Email it to a friend!

Email sent!