"We can't help but react," says Putin, alleging Ukraine is trying to acquire a WMD, possibly a nuclear weapon, with western help. pic.twitter.com/cYUHgO4CN5
— Teri Schultz (@terischultz) February 21, 2022
He looks… tired. And bloated, not to mention listless. The sick man of Europe is an elderly cliche, but I gotta say: If this is the best Putin’s professional cosmetologists & media stagers can do before possibly the most important international speech of his career, there’s a reason for the rumors. Many people are saying!
my hottest of hot takes, completely divorced from any evidence, is that putin has some sort of illness. he’s sick. and not in the mentally sick way, and not in the rip a mctwist off the half pipe kind of sick like dude, sick move. like genuinely not physically well.
— World Famous Art Thief (@CalmSporting) February 22, 2022
Back in late January, at Puck, Russian expat Julia Ioffe asked Russian expert Fiona Hill:
… People I talk to in Moscow, as well as some in the U.S. government, say that some of this is a product of Putin’s COVID isolation for the last two years; that he barely sees anyone because to see him, you have to quarantine for two weeks; that he’s not getting good information. Do you think that’s plausible?
I think it could be, honestly. I really do think that there’s something strange going on there. He seems more emotional, more focused. Maybe he’s been sitting there, stewing the whole time about this. There’s a good case to be made for that because it’s very strange. There are many people, myself and others, who have followed Putin for his entire time in the presidency and we’re all sort of wondering whether there’s something else going on. Is something wrong? Has this made him confront his mortality? There are other changes around him. Lots of people did get sick around him. Does that make him feel that time might be ticking, in ways we would never have credited?
There are rumors in Moscow that, you know, he’s sick, and that’s one of the reasons for the isolation, that he’s had to have certain medical procedures—that aren’t Botox.
He could be taking steroids for inflammation. It could be anything And people around him are not well. This is speculation, but you know, there’s something going on there. Because often these things are driven by personal issues. You go back in history and there’s all kinds of things like that. Look at Yeltsin. We thought he had a cold when he disappeared in 1996, and he was actually on the operating table having open heart surgery and nearly dying. I think it’s very much worth considering.
In a personalist autocracy, the leader is insulated from reliable information about public attitudes and foreign threats. This dynamic in today’s Russia could end up driving Putin toward a more aggressive course in Ukraine, @adam_e_casey and @SevaUT warn.https://t.co/J4MHxSa0uC
— Foreign Affairs (@ForeignAffairs) February 6, 2022
Or maybe, Foreign Affairs suggested earlier this month, it’s just an occupational psychological hazard:
… Because personalist rulers are more insulated from the consequences of their actions, they can afford to be more violent and less risk averse than other kinds of autocrats. To repress domestic opposition and keep power, they staff their regimes with devotees from the military and the security services who are prone to aggression and whose hostile outlook begins to permeate foreign policy decision-making. As these courtiers compete for the ruler’s attention, they may leave out inconvenient facts and offer belligerent, eye-catching plans for how to deal with what they see as threats.
That doesn’t mean more violence in Ukraine is preordained. In the past, Putin has been pragmatic and sensitive to war’s costs. But the Russian president’s circle of trust has consolidated over time, insulating him from information that does not fit with his prior beliefs. His minions share his anger toward the West, and he faces no serious internal constraints. The future of Ukraine may hinge on a man ensconced in a bubble that both feeds his aggression and shields him from its consequences.
Authoritarian states are bedeviled by an inherent contradiction. To stay in power, autocrats desperately seek reliable information on the attitudes of their citizens, elite rivals, and foreign threats. But to avoid opposition, they establish political systems that make quality data exceptionally hard to obtain. Leaders suppress dissent, punish free expression, encourage personal loyalty, and divide their security agencies. They therefore struggle to understand both how their people feel and what other states are planning.
In a personalist autocracy, these problems are even worse. Government officials not only struggle to obtain factual information; they also face strong personal incentives to censor what they find… There is a reason, for instance, why personalist leaders have meek advisers. For strongmen, the consequences of losing power can be extreme—prison, exile, or death—and so they tend to surround themselves by sycophants. Their governing bodies can therefore descend into groupthink, and policy can lock onto a single path. This tendency is intensified by the fact that long-standing rulers become more confident in their abilities over time, ignoring or quashing opposition.
Perhaps no leader of a major power illustrates these patterns better than Putin. His advisers once held a range of perspectives, especially early during the first decade of this century, when he attempted to position the Kremlin as a partner to the United States and Europe. But over time, his security agencies came to dominate Putin’s attention, especially as he grew disappointed with the West. Now, Putin’s inner circle is almost entirely made up of the siloviki—members of his loyalist, hawkish security services. The FSB, Russia’s successor to the KGB, is playing an increasingly visible role in foreign relations. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, by contrast, is now sometimes left out of decisions altogether…
patrick II
Putin’s defense policy reminds me of Cheney’s 1% foreign policy — declare war on anyone you can who might someday give cause for concern. And it also disguises other motives which he would prefer not to state.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Yikes
trollhattan
“Is now to be doing my Ed Asner imitation. ‘I hate spunky.'”
“Is part where you are clapping, Duma.”
{pause, then wild applause and huzzas}
Gin & Tonic
Channeling the great American philosopher Lawrence Peter Berra, who said “it gets late early out there,” Russian men have a tendency to get old young out there.
Mike in NC
Putin might well be dead in a year.
djk
Nothing is more predictable in US foreign policy commentary, by professionals, journalists, or anyone else, than as soon as their erstwhile foreign proxies actions start to diverge from the Washington party line than it must mean that the former soulmates have suddenly gone off their rocker and suffered some kind of mental breakdown. Gets trotted out every time.
You don’t have to support Putin’s current intervention to acknowledge that Russia’s understanding of its interests and what they’ll pay to secure them won’t always coincide with Adam L Silverman’s and the rest of the Washington establishment’s desiderata. Doesn’t mean he’s crazy. Putin, I mean. Let’s just oppose Putin, discuss what’s the best way to do that (hopefully without destroying the world any faster than we are already) and quit with the pop psychoanalysis. OK?
SiubhanDuinne
“I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country.”
— G. W. Bush
debbie
Post-COVID steroids?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
“Napoleon was a moody fuck.” – Silvio Dante
Gin & Tonic
@Mike in NC: One can only hope.
dexwood
@Mike in NC: True for all of us. Hope vs. fear.
Raoul Paste
@SiubhanDuinne: It was a stupid comment then, and even stupider now
debbie
@debbie:
Compared to that younger photo, he’s got that round moonface that comes from longterm steroid use.
Ken
@patrick II: I still had some hope for a reasonable outcome. Then you said Putin’s thinking was like Cheney’s…
Suzanne
@Gin & Tonic: Yeah, I wonder if he is demented. Or a drunk.
Chris
This whole thing has really hammered home the extent to which Putin is the Russian Trump.
He’s not a criminal mastermind. He’s not even the new Stalin. He’s a racist thug peaking after a lifetime of entitlement.
dr. bloor
@Gin & Tonic: Maybe. Who’s on deck?
CaseyL
I’m not gonna hope Putin keels over dead just because he “looks” ill – I did that for years with Trump, and the fucker is still alive and kicking.
Hell, Dick Cheney is still among the living, though probably on his third or fourth surreptitiously harvested heart by now.
Evil, crazy people just don’t die when doing so would really benefit the world.
I think a lot of the “ooh, he’s really ill, isn’t he?” is wishful thinking. He’s healthy enough to scare the shit out of his own Cabinet.
I suspect, when Putin does finally keel over, the scene will be a lot like “Death of Stalin,” with all the apparatchiks killing each other over his cooling body, or trying to lam it out of town as fast and as far as they can. But that day, alas, is not today.
schrodingers_cat
I had posted these earlier but I am posting them again, love these wedding rings!.
sanjeevs
What struck me about his speech was how it was a straightforward imperialist rant. Didn’t mention the usual grievances his apologists have been using.
For the moment his troll farms, client politicians and client opinionmakers are struggling to come up with an angle.
I thought it was strange since Russian propaganda efforts in the last 10 years have been terrifyingly effective.
Hoodie
Being sick can amplify one’s fears and sense of mortality. I get the sense that Ukraine could be tied to Putin’s sense of mortality because it represents the greatest potential of all the breakaway FSU republics that he views as Greater Russia. A non-Russian Ukraine like is a cancer at the heart of his concept of Greater Russia. If Ukraine democratizes and develops a diverse, robust, less corrupt economy and society that is not dependent on or subservient to Russia, it would be like death to him.
Keeping with the disease metaphor, It might be said that Putin has metastatic cancer and is currently in the denial stage. Russia really is not strong enough to permanently subdue Ukraine or to seriously threaten NATO allies. Unlike the glory days of the USSR, there is no world-spanning ideology behind this flavor of Russian expansion; it’s just plain old imperialism by a dictator of a third rate country whose reach is preordained to exceed its grasp. It would shatter the country economically and quickly degrade its military. China will be of little or no help to him, because the Chinese will want to keep relations with the West on good business terms because Russia does not have that much to offer them.
Maybe the Donetsk/Lubyansk ploy signals a transition to the bargaining stage. Of course, Ukraine having it’s territorial integrity violated in this way is terrible but, from a global strategic point of view , it’s small change. Putin gains very little from this except, probably, a region that will be another economic drag on Russia. Of course, Trump would think this is brilliant, because Putin is a stupid person’s idea of a strategic genius.
Roger Moore
@Suzanne:
Probably not that. One of the things that impressed a lot of Russians about Putin is that he’s a teetotaler. I suppose it’s possible he fell off the wagon, but if he has some kind of substance abuse problem, it’s more likely to be something other than alcohol. I would also guess that any substance abuse problem- and they’re strictly hypothetical until someone provides some solid evidence- was something he started taking under the direction of a physician and became hooked on. He doesn’t seem like the kind of person who would be interested in recreational drugs.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Putin ended his speech to the Duma saying,
Then he hung up.
E.
@djk: way to harsh my buzz, dude.
Roger Moore
@CaseyL:
I will certainly hope he makes things easy for us by keeling over dead at an opportune moment- now would be great- but I won’t expect it. Even people who are gravely ill can hang on for an uncomfortably long time, and if he’s showing signs of an illness it certainly doesn’t qualify as grave.
Poe Larity
Vlad is just frustrated he has to carry around his own geiger counter:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/22/the-personal-politics-of-putins-security-council-meeting-a76522
Just too many lackeys who have their own polonium supply.
Ohio Mom
@schrodingers_cat: Fortunately, my resident math expert, Ohio Dad, is sitting next to me and could interpret the formulas, else I would not have understood the joke. Sweet, maybe a little corny in a good way, definitely not for us former art majors.
On the topic of this post, maybe Putin looks peaked because starting a war is stressful. You probably don’t sleep well, for one thing.
Peale
@sanjeevs: They are just lying about what he said and returning to the previous talking points. Ukraine isn’t a democracy. Ukraine is run by fascists. The US media wants this war. This is just like the build up to Iraq. Have a little empathy here…how would you feel if Mexico was thinking of becoming a province of China?
Parfigliano
@debbie: The Barry Bonds head
different-church-lady
@trollhattan:
In Russia, spunk hate you.
Chris
@sanjeevs:
Fascists will say whatever the hell they want, secure in the knowledge that their various apologists and fellow travelers will just twist themselves into pretzels coming up with rationalizations that make them sound good.
You see this in America all the time. A right-winger goes on a balls-to-the-wall racist or sexist rant. Then a whole infestation of assholes comes out to nod seriously and say, you know, it’s clear that this man is just very concerned about (if you’re a “moderate Republican”) The Deficit, (if you’re the dirtbag-left) Medicare For All, (if you’re the media) Hillary’s Emails, or what-have-you. There’s an absolute fucking mind-block against just taking the right wing as it is.
Gin & Tonic
@Hoodie: Ukraine already has a society that is not dependent on or subservient to Russia. It also has, and this part is complete anathema to Putin, a robust electoral system that can cause an incumbent President to be voted out of office.
Chris
@Peale:
“Which, mark your calendars, is literally the first and last time we’ll ever be concerned about fascism, as opposed to complaining that it’s a distraction and a weasel word and the real enemy is woke capitalism and the Corporatist Democratic Party that wants us all to vote for Hillary Clinton just because she’s a woman.”
Geminid
@Peter Liakhov posted a one minute, 20 second excerpt from a meeting Putin had with his national security advisors yesterday, with subtitles. Putin is questioning the head of the spy agency SVR on the question of recognizing the two breakaway regions of Ukraine. The spy chief gets nervous and flustered, and Putin is visibly pleased as he toys with and humiliates him.
different-church-lady
@Chris:
Well, it’s run by the wrong fascists…
different-church-lady
All I can think right now is, “My god, can you imagine what this would be like if Trump were still in the White House?”
Jeffro
@Chris: 110%
Jeffro
Side note: I’m somewhat pleased to see that our national snooze media is waking up a bit to other angles, stories, ledes if you will other than ‘feckless Biden’ or Democrats in disarray’
GOP in disarray about how to handle Putin; 100% united that it’s somehow President Biden’s fault
You might even lose the DC media on this one, Mitch, and then you’re well and truly fucked.
Mai Naem mobile
@debbie: thats what I’ve been thinking – bloating, paranoia, euphoria. Typical steroid stuff.
Another Scott
What happened to Putin’s face? (from 2017). FWIW.
@Parfigliano – Indeed, there’s a striking resemblance.
Cheers,
Scott.
Raoul Paste
You can bet that our intelligence agencies are looking at these images with interest. They may well know more details
Sister Golden Bear
@Geminid:
He was so flustered that he was probably invited to have a cup of tea afterwards to settle his nerves. //
jonas
Autocrats like Putin and Trump seem to be living off of infant fluid transfusions or something. There’s no logical explanation for why their clearly expired, bloated human husks should continue to function, but here we are. I remember people predicting Trump would be reduced to a puddle of gurgling dementia by 2019 but here he is, a pile of apparently still energetically living gurgling dementia giving interviews about how awesome Putin is.
Sister Golden Bear
@Geminid:
He was so flustered that he was probably invited to have a cup of tea afterwards to settle his nerves. //
@different-church-lady: We don’t have to imagine, the TFG tweeted his enthusiastic response.
And the Russian army would be knocking on Germany’s door after swallowing up Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic States.
gratuitous
Really strange. Usually Fox is right on a public figure’s seeming infirmity, speculating quite freely that she or he is really at death’s door because of a trip or a stutter. But for some reason, they’re not saying a word about Putin’s diminished appearance.
Really, really strange.
Patricia Kayden
oatler
Gary Brooker RIP
different-church-lady
@Sister Golden Bear:
Well, turnabout is fair play.
oclib
@Mai Naem mobile:
One definite side effect of steroid use is the atrophying of your testicles
—— Jose Canseco
Roger Moore
@Hoodie:
Absolutely this. A whole part of his rationale is that Russians need a strongman leader, and he’s tried to rehabilitate the worst offenders from Russia’s past, like Stalin and Ivan the Terrible, as part of his campaign to sell this idea. What I find really interesting is that he’s actually made things worse for himself by claiming Ukraine isn’t really a country and Ukrainians are just Russians. He absolutely has to undermine Ukrainian democracy, because it strikes at the very heart of his claims.
RaflW
I’m struck by how just a tiny change and it fits a certain someone to a T.
“There is a reason, for instance, why personalist leaders have meek advisers. For a fake, blustery ‘strongman’, the consequences of losing power can be extreme—prison, exile, or death—and so they’ll tend to surround themselves by sycophants.”
mrmoshpotato
@Mike in NC:
Your speculation timeline is acceptable. Now what about the Kremlin’s orange fascist shitstain?
mrmoshpotato
@SiubhanDuinne: Uh huh. ?? Had W already become a war criminal then? I don’t remember.
mrmoshpotato
@Chris:
Eh? Chicken or the egg?
Chicken (Putin) first.
Dump is the Kremlin’s orange fascist shitstain.
Danielx
@different-church-lady:
Well, turnabout is fair play.
Only once.
sdhays
Yeah, a few months ago, people were predicting that the Turtle was on death’s door. That didn’t turn out to be true, either.
mrmoshpotato
@Peale:
Confused. Very very confused. ?
Jay
Keep in mind, the first thing Russian “Peacekeepers” have to deal with are the remaining Independent Brigades in the DPR and LNR.
About 2 years after Minsk II and for a few years after, there was an epidemic of “falling out of windows” and “retiring to Russia” amongst the Separatist leaders.
Some were coopted into the “State” as well, but there are still a number that for various reasons, are still independent, run their own fiefdoms, have their own military and security, run their own crimes.
Some of these might not be willing to roll over for the Russian Army or the FSB.
dww44
@SiubhanDuinne: Well, that didn’t age well……..
AxelFoley
@Mike in NC: We can only hope.
HumboldtBlue
Jen Psaki has been at the barricades since day one, but damn, how that job must wear on one.
dww44
@sdhays:
I’m sorta glad he didn’t keel over. At least he can keep those crazy Congressional GOP’ers corralled more than anyone else I can think of.
Chetan Murthy
@HumboldtBlue: Such stupid questions. Over at LG&M, I read somebody’s comment that she demolishes people who ask reasonable questions, just like those who ask stupid ones. I’ve never seen her demolish a reasonable person’s question, and I’d think that it’d make all the papers and news shows. I mean, that’d be “man bites dog”, instead of “Psaki kicks Doocy to curb AGAIN”.
Chetan Murthy
I look at the various pictures of pooty-poot, and he sure does look like he’s aged a lot these past two years. Face is rounder, too. But esp. the way he slouches in his chair seems new. Very much not the “manly, forceful, intimidating (did I mean) man” vibe.
Jay
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/false-flag-shenanigans-russian.html?m=1
Orxy is up to his old work, tracking and documenting via crowdsourced intelligence, realities on the ground.
Quaker in a Basement
Well, you know, he’s had a lot of shit to deal with.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
Given his background this is a very real probability. Not 100% of course but more than likely I’d imagine. I’d say that if it’s drugs it is medical. But he’s a person that for a long time has been pretty much getting his way in the world and his way is very, very, very privileged. And although he is very wealthy and all, I’d bet his real interest is power. And he seems to be losing that, his country’s GDP is around what LA county’s is and he’s not really making progress. That kind of information could cripple the kind of person who is your basic dictator, like vlad. And he’s seeing pretty much his entire world sort of just sitting there doing squat. His military power is, while not immaterial, far weaker than he’d like. His popularity at home seems to be rather weak, his covid response has been crap, his covid experience seems to have brought out a rather paranoid response, lending credence to my point that things aren’t going all that well in vlad world.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
I get this sense that Putin’s term of office will end either like Francisco Franco or like Nicolae Ceaușescu. (OK, I copy-pasted that name from Wikipedia to get the proper accent.) He’s probably got a number of underlings whose well-being is tied to his continued well-being, including medically inclined underlings whose future health depends on maintaining his current health. On the other hand, the autocrat’s difficulty in realizing that his power base may be hollowed-out and ready to turn on him could turn around and bite him at any time.
NotMax
@Bruce K in ATH-GR
Would say more like Idi Amin, except other than Syria, Iran and Elba Lago I’m hard pressed to come up with anywhere that would volunteer to take him in.
JR
@Peale: Probably makes more sense than Austria.
Chris T.
Putin is way more competent than Trump. (Of course, that’s like saying that gray is way more colorful than black.) Probably also way healthier, which is again damning with faint praise. Other than that, though, they’re two peas in a pod…
texasboyshaun
The Doctor : Don’t challenge me, Harriet Jones. ‘Cause I’m a completely new man. I could bring down your Government with a single word.
Harriet Jones : You’re the most remarkable man I’ve ever met. But I don’t think you’re quite capable of that.
The Doctor : No, you’re right. Not a single word.
[pause]
The Doctor : Just six.
Harriet Jones : I don’t think so.
The Doctor : Six words.
Harriet Jones : Stop it!
The Doctor : Six.
[approaches Alex, whispering in his ear]
The Doctor : Don’t you think she looks tired?
Ohio Mom
@Chetan Murthy: LG&M is a bit of a boy’s club. They are too sophisticated to put up a “No Grils Allowed” sign but there is definitely a dash of that in their culture.
brantl
The town idiot says what?
brantl
@Chris: He’s considerably more competent in achieving his goals, than DumbOld Jerk Stump.
Betty
Macron has said that Putin’s behavior has changed significantly in recent times. Whether physical or psychological, he thinks something is up with Putin.
Citizen Alan
@texasboyshaun: Off topic, I know, but that scene was why I never really warmed warmed to David tenant’s Doctor. It hinted from his very 1st episode that the 10th doctor was, at heart, a capricious arrogant megalomaniac. The Time Lotd Triumphant, right from the starr.
Another Scott
A good thread:
(via VladDavidzon)
Cheers,
Scott.
Nettoyeur
@Roger Moore: As John Le Carré said through his character George Smiley, “an old spy in a hurry is the worst.”
tam1MI
@debbie:
Compared to that younger photo, he’s got that round moonface that comes from longterm steroid use.
Or Congestive Heart Failure.
Ruckus
@Quaker in a Basement:
Well, you know, he’s fucked up
hada lot of shittoand has to deal with it.FIXITFY
JustRuss
@brantl: The fact that he’s not even the worst POTUS of this very young century is so depressing.
pluky
It would interesting to get a look at his ankles to check for peripheral edema. He’s got the face of people I’ve known with congestive heart failure.