Apparently someone asked for an Ukraine update.
The NOTAMs (Notice to Airmen) declaring a no fly zone for civilian aviation over eastern Ukraine went up about five hours ago.
NOTAMS over the entirety of the eastern border of Ukraine. https://t.co/FBmgJTggya
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) February 23, 2022
This indicates that Russia is intending to do something offensive from that direction.
About seven hours ago Ukrainian officials warned of a Russian attack on a chemical plant in Crimea that was intended to be run as a false flag to be blamed on the Ukrainians.
Now reports coming in — here from Ukrainian MP @marianabezuhla who sits on parliament's Nat Sec committee — that "an explosion is planned at the Crimean Titan chemical plant [in Armyansk], in which the Ukrainian armed forces are to be accused." https://t.co/h4LCkE6SZG
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 23, 2022
A little over an hour ago Putin declared war on Ukraine:
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is undertaking a "special military operation" in Ukraine saying his goal is to demilitarize and denazify the country but not occupy it.
— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) February 24, 2022
This thread has full details on Putin’s declaration of war, but it boils down to invasion, occupation, pacification, regime change, and installation of a puppet government.
Forty minutes ago President Biden responded to Putin’s declaration of war:
New statement from Biden: "President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring" pic.twitter.com/icLkU1DvcT
— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) February 24, 2022
I’ve seen reports on social media of explosions in a number of Ukrainian cities including Kyiv. Here’s a live feed from Kharkiv.
The Ukrainians are smartly protecting their airports:
⚡️Ukrainian airports in Kharkiv, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia are closed until morning and are blocking runways in case of possible attack, according to ZN media outlet.
The airport in Kherson is to be closed next.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 24, 2022
This appears to be a full scale invasion, not merely a reinforcement of the occupation of eastern Ukraine. Unlike 2014, the Ukrainians are far better prepared. They have far better capabilities. They have 8 years of combat experience in holding off further Russian incursions. I do not know, however, if they can withstand a full fledged Russian invasion that intends to take and hold Ukraine. I am in complete agreement with the assessment that without significantly more assistance, the Ukrainians need to adopt an Unconventional Warfare approach rather than meet the Russians head on. They need to draw the Russians into the cities and turn this into a three block at a time war. To do that, the Ukrainians will have to be willing to absorb significant casualties.
Putin seems to have decided to go all in. The discussion of whether he is physically and/or mentally ill are irrelevant at this point. I think it is far more likely that he has simply spent every day for the past 30 years being consumed by his belief that the fall of the Soviet Union and the diminution of Russia was solely the fault of the US and its lackeys in the EU and NATO. And that after forty years of stewing over this belief it has finally consumed him.
So now we wait. We wait to see what Putin does. We wait to see what the coming dawn in Ukraine brings. We wait to see what President Biden and our EU and NATO allies are willing to do and able to do in response.
If you’re the religious type, say a prayer for the Ukrainians tonight. If you’re not just keep good thoughts. This is going to get far, far, far worse before it gets better.
Open thread!
PS: If you want a list of people to follow regarding what is happening in Ukraine, use the list that Gin & Tonic put together for us last month. It can be found at this link.
dmsilev
Sigh.
Yeah, this.
Yarrow
Thank you, Adam.
Miss Bianca
Holy shit. I kept telling myself that even Putin couldn’t be this crazy.
I was wrong. Damn, this is going to be a long night.
dmsilev
Also, at least this guy isn’t still in charge:
Adam L Silverman
@Miss Bianca: There will be lots of long nights ahead.
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: I decided not to include that in the post. I figured one of you would post it in a comment.
Texasboyshaun
Thanks, Adam. This is awful.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to go watch lucha libre from Mexico because I need to watch something relaxing. And nothing says soothing like men and women in fight masks and grotesque makeup beating each other up with chairs, tables, ladders, chains, shinai, trash cans, each other, and anything else that isn’t tied down. You all will have to amuse yourselves.
HumboldtBlue
Fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck
Adam L Silverman
@Texasboyshaun: I’m going to send you an email in a few minutes, nothing bad, just want to follow up on something from earlier directly. So keep an eye out for it.
dmsilev
@Adam L Silverman: Yeah, tonight is probably not the right time to focus on him, but we do need to at least take some notice.
Major Major Major Major
Hoo boy.
Josh Marshall at TPM also has a handy twitter list for this, though I can’t speak too much to the quality of everyone on it. https://twitter.com/i/lists/1494877848087187461
dmsilev
@Adam L Silverman:
Can’t you get the same results just by reading Twitter for half an hour or so?
jonas
Well, fuck. Why do we have to continue to be cursed to live in “interesting times”?
Another Scott
Repost from downstairs – A USAF Global Hawk FORTE12 has turned to fly over the Black Sea, apparently heading toward Crimea. I haven’t seen one do this before (but I’ve only been watching off and on for a couple of days).
Fingers crossed for all the good people of Ukraine. I’m heartened that Russia was alone in the Security Council, and that Pelosi said it plainly that the attack on Ukraine is an attack on Democracy. We all must stand with Ukraine.
Cheers,
Scott.
am
Thanks. Any recommended good sources of real time information? FPRI_Orbis, RadioFreeTom, juliaioffe, RVAwonk?
dmsilev
Just a couple of years too early for a centennial remake of Battleship Potemkin..
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: It’s not the same as watching Pimpinela Escarlata dance his way to the ring, dance into the ring, kiss his competitors, and get eliminated from the battle royale!
jonas
Part of Putin’s gambit is apparently thinking that Russia can evade the worst effects of sanctions with hinky cryptocurrency deals.
Another Scott
@am: Vlad Davidzon is in Kyiv. dprk_news recommended him. I don’t know enough to know how seriously to take his slant on things (for good or ill).
https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon He’s with the Atlantic Council.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: We’ll be keeping a Global Hawk up at all times. They just did a replacement of the one on station about two hours or so ago.
I expect that NATO air assets will be flying combat air patrols over NATO and EU member countries at all times as well.
MobiusKlein
I’ll be lobbying at work tomorrow to cut our financial services to Russia. I’ll let you all know how that goes
debbie
He’s a madman. Hopefully, a dying one.
Yarrow
@Adam L Silverman: What do you think about this sort of thing that I keep seeing suggested as a strategy?
Leto
More explosions on Kyiv, with an explosion just now heard on camera (MSNBC). Apparently civilian population is starting to head out.
@Adam L Silverman: there was also reports of redeployments of approx 32 Apache choppers to Poland. I know the UAV crews, both on station and remote, are ready, but man.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Kotkin the author who wrote Waiting for Stalin, is of the opinion is Russia’s problem is it all one man rule and the country is way too big. If Putin wants to see why Russia weakened during his time as it’s leader, he needs to look in the mirror because he re-centralized the government under him.
Kalakal
@Another Scott: I just got a page does not exist on that link. You say he’s in Kyiv?
Adam L Silverman
@Yarrow: It won’t matter if Putin is able to effectively destroy the Ukrainian military in the initial assault. At this point the Ukrainians need to improvise to an Unconventional Warfare strategy and hope that Putin does something really dumb like take out a Global Hawk or attack a NATO country he thinks is aiding Ukraine and that brings the US and NATO into the war.
Deterrence has failed. Unless we do what I delineated two days:
That’s what would need to be done to even make Putin and his oligarchs and sycophants feel pain.
SiubhanDuinne
@Kalakal:
See if this works:
https://mobile.twitter.com/VladDavidzon/with_replies
Adam L Silverman
@Leto: Until or unless Putin attacks Poland those Apaches and their crews will remain on the ground.
Another Scott
@Kalakal: I don’t know why the link was garbled.
@VladDavidzon.
Yes, he’s in Kyiv.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
I’m heading off line now. I am not sanguine regarding how this is going to go.
Yarrow
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks. Can’t see all of that happening right away. Maybe some of it.
jonas
What the hell is Putin thinking? In more optimistic moments, I have to say he’s simply mad and really gone and fucked himself and Russia. But on the other hand, I’m guessing he’s simply figured he can turn this whole thing into a “who can endure more economic/political pain, me or the West?” pissing contest. In which case, I suspect that he intends to not only crush Ukraine, but also fuck with EU/US energy supplies, infrastructure, trade, etc. to create escalating political and economic crises that will eventually empower the populist right here (which we’re seeing already with the Trumpist fifth column in the GOP falling into line) and in Europe that will eventually give in and give him what he wants, namely the dismantling of NATO and the restoration of the Soviet bloc. He has all his pieces in place. Now he just needs to sit back, start turning the screws, and wait.
Change my mind. Please.
BeautifulPlumage
@Adam L Silverman: Hmmmm, like if video came out of “Russian troops” hitting a target in Poland? The video won’t have to be very realistic, apparently.
Omnes Omnibus
@jonas: We have power too.
Kalakal
@SiubhanDuinne: Thanks, that worked
Leto
@Adam L Silverman: Oh, I know. It’s another signal to Putin though. Some of the talking heads have spoken about that speck of Russian land that’s sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, and the fear that Putin will just try to roll west through Ukraine and Belarus to create a land bridge to that speck. Hoping that the additional Apache’s there, as well it being two NATO countries will stop him. I just don’t know though.
cain
@debbie: I suspect he is in fact dying and that this is his last hurrah – that motherfucker has started a global crises. No way the other neighboring countries are going to sit around and get conquered one by one and bring back the USSR.
Leto
Michael McFaul on MSNBC right now giving out a lot of very useful information.
Another Scott
@jonas: VladDavidzon is (roughly, as I understand it) figuring the goal is to quickly grab a few cities, force Zelenskyy out, then quickly sue for peace and demand a veto on the future government. Putin’s hand is weak – his only hope is a quick “victory” that the West is somehow forced – or willing – to accept.
My impression is that the UN Security Council recognizes that this isn’t an attack on Ukraine – it’s an attack on all the post-war order. If Putin can change borders by force, or erase countries from the map, then the whole international order crumbles (as the Kenya ambassador made clear Tuesday night).
We’ll see what happens. :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Mai Naem mobile
No other country will be convinced to give up their nukes again.
Texasboyshaun
@Adam L Silverman: will do.
Ancient Atheist
Why? Why can Putin do this? Because “we” play by the rules. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will change history forever and we sit back and watch. Oh, we are watching “very” intently as a free democracy is invaded and destroyed.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@jonas: I think it’s more like it’s been 30 years of Putin as the Strongman of Russia, Russia has been stagnate or getting worse under him, he’s bored with the job, felling the end is near (Stalin was only head of the Soviet Union for 34 years and Putin is 69 years old) I think it’s simply Putin blames the Ukraine for all his woes and lashing out at it.
debbie
@cain:
The last hurrah of a demented mind.
Mai Naem mobile
@cain: i didn’t think about that before. I would have thought there would be enough intelligence known about that though.
Leto
@Another Scott: unfortunately the council is currently chaired by Russia, and as soon as the Ukrainian ambassador finished speaking Russia gaveled it closed. The Ukrainian ambassador asked the rest of the council to strip Russia of the presidency because they were violating the basic tenets of the UN. Idk if that can happen, but it should.
Texasboyshaun
Just got an update from Tado and his new humans. He’s in NOLA and bedding down for tonight. I reminded him to stay away from Bourbon Street and don’t talk to any French poodles no matter how beautiful they are!
Felanius Kootea
I have a weirdish question. If Putin suddenly died tomorrow, who would be in charge in Russia?
Leto
@Mai Naem mobile: hadn’t thought about that, but that’s a good point. Ugh.
debbie
@Mai Naem mobile:
About his health? He’s been hiding that with his “COVID isolation.”
ETA: The length of that ridiculous table? That’s not COVID; he’s been through chemo and has zero immunity.
Leto
Per the MSNBC talking head, Kier something, Putin 1) made this decision at 3am and 2) he’s personally directing this. And continues to remind everyone that he has nukes.
bad santa
I grew up in the 70’s-80’s with something called MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction.
It was fucking supposed to prevent this shit from happening.
Seeing the direction the world is going, lets just go nuclear. Including China too. Just reset everything.
It seems to me that Humans have reached a zenith of technology and stupidity at the same time.
Just fucking end it.
Merry Christmas ;)
am
It’s not a last hurrah or lashing out by a demented mind. Those are comforting lies we can tell ourselves. It’s a devastating and well executing decapitation strike on a peaceful western country and the US has little effective countermeasures. There’s not any point in gossiping if he looks puffy. He rules a large country with a modern military completely and is mentally capable. Disapproval doesn’t do much and a western democracy will have fallen by military action by Russia within several weeks.
oldgold
Yesterday my company received several alerts warning that we needed to strengthen our cyber security given the events in Russia /Ukraine.
This made me wonder, what are our offensive cyber capabilities? My guess is they are considerable. Is that so? If so, should they be quietly unleashed?
Captain C
Serious question: Is it possible that Putin has something like tertiary syphilis, to go with whatever other maladies he’s dealing with right now? He seems like he’s gone much further ’round the bend than his pre-COVID resume would indicate.
Argiope
@Felanius Kootea: no idea, but your proposal is acceptable. Why can’t the right guys ever fall out of windows?
HumboldtBlue
This is not good.
Kalakal
@jonas: Economic pain will not be just limited to EU/US. It’s not Putin vs the West, it’s Putin vs the world. Also a serious bit of grit in the gearbox for the Trumpist 5th column & European equivalents is that an awful lot of Americans and Europeans trace their recent ancestry to and still have family links in Eastern Europe and they tend to view Russia like Cubans in Miami view present day Cuba. Right wing many of them maybe but they really hate Russia
SiubhanDuinne
Sirens are going off. Kyiv is under attack.
Leto
Sirens in Kyiv finally going off just now.
SiubhanDuinne
@Leto:
I am wrung out and fatigued, but I just can’t imagine going to sleep any time soon.
jonas
@Ancient Atheist: It’s probably a good time to remind everyone that the “rules” we can play by here are pretty limited because Russia HAS NUKES, and, as Putin made clear, will use them if threatened. I think he’s also shown at this point that he has no fucks left to give. I want him to pay for this shit as much as anyone and hope his invasion of Ukraine sinks his regime like Afghanistan did the Soviets, but I also don’t want, you know, life as we know it destroyed in a nuclear holocaust.
prostratedragon
@Texasboyshaun: Glad to hear he’s getting settled, even if it’s just a matchlight in the gloom of a night like this. One good thing to rest easy about.
Leto
@SiubhanDuinne: sadly, same.
Felanius Kootea
@Argiope: I’m wondering whether there’s an internal strategy going on, a signal to forces within Russia to back off, not just to those of us outside. Doesn’t help Ukraine though.
Putin is 69 with no clear successor. I’d say a nuclear armed Russia is a danger with or without him.
prostratedragon
@Leto: Well, I hope he doesn’t have an actual personal button. The USSR must have had their own filters as effective as ours, else we might not have made it this far.
jonas
@Kalakal:
Yes, this effectively makes Russia a pariah regime in the world on par with Iran or North Korea and that’s not going to go well for them. But I’m less sanguine about some Ukrainian voters in Illinois or Ohio being able to effectively check the Putinist juggernaut that the Trumpist GOP has become over the last five years. They literally love Putin almost as much as Trump. It’s absolutely nauseating.
dilbert dogbert
The red line track is for a Global Hawk spy plane. It is still in the air over the Black Sea. Use Flightradar24 to track its flight. ID is Forte12
Global Hawk set the endurance record for full-scale, operational uncrewed aircraft UAVs by flying for 33.1 hours at altitudes up to 60,000 …
If it goes back over Ukraine and the Russians shot at it hell will break loose.
Leto
@prostratedragon: there’s at least two examples of a singular Russian officer preventing the use of nuclear weapons during super high tensions. So…
Felanius Kootea
My heart breaks for the people of Ukraine right now. Caught in a madman’s nightmare.
jonas
@Captain C:
I think it’s the standard paranoia that all autocrats eventually develop. They assume their opponents are as ruthless and cunning as they are and after a while it starts messing with their heads. Recall, e.g., Saddam Hussein spending the night in a different palace each day and using stunt doubles so nobody could tell where he really was, etc.
Peale
@Leto: it’s not a little speck. It’s an extremely fortified speck which would prevent us from getting aid to the balkans while we removed it.
Almost Retired
Ugh, will stay up late to watch the coverage (I’m on the West Coast). I feel like I have a far more sophisticated and nuanced understanding of the situation in Ukraine by reading front-pagers and commenters on Balloon-Juice than I could have gained from just following the mainstream media.
HumboldtBlue
Rachel Vindman has had enough, particularly enough of Tulsi Gabbard.
You are a fucking traitor.
The Dangerman
@Miss Bianca: Me, too. It smelled like giant bluff.
Hope Ukraine puts up a helluva fight because I assume Putin has got a hard on for the Baltic States. Which would be all kinds of bad for obvious reasons.
Felanius Kootea
@am: And then what? What is his long term goal? How does he think the other former Soviet Republics will react? The rest of the world? The Russian oligarchs whose assets across the world are in danger because of his current actions?
cain
@jonas: I think both Iran and North Korea have some strong allies (eg China for North Korea and Syria for Iran) so they have it. I don’t think Russia really has friends given what it was during the U.S.S.R.
I think they are truly going to go at alone. I have no idea what the Russian populace thinks about all this.
But I’m sure, there is a diner here somewhere the NYT will go into to talk about their feelings about Russa and Joe Biden.
Kalakal
Right now I’m wishing for a sudden rapid thaw and that within 36 hours the world is presented with the sight of 100’s of Russian AFVs bogged down in a sea of mud.
cain
It might be worth blocking everything from .ru at this point – you can bet there will be a online cold war going on against the West.
SiubhanDuinne
@HumboldtBlue:
One of the few silver linings to Alexander Vindman’s firing and subsequent military retirement is that it freed both him and Rachel to comment as publicly as they care to. Rachel in particular ran out of fucks quite some time ago. Even though she was (rightly) furious and distressed at the way her husband had been treated, it must be a relief to her that she can speak her mind now without worrying about how it will affect Col Vindman’s career.
Brachiator
@Yarrow:
I note that in the UK, prime minister Boris Johnson has bent over backwards to avoid causing any problems for the oligarchs who live and invest in Britain. Biden has done more here, but Putin and his cronies still appear to have good friends in Congress and in conservative media.
Peale
im guessing that despite the constant propaganda, they think about getting Estonia back about as often as we think about getting the Philippines back.
jonas
@cain: China, Syria, and Iran have all made it clear that they stand with Russia and will not cooperate with any sanctions. Not sure where DPRK stands right now, but they typically fall in line with Moscow as well. So not completely alone, but also not great company.
Bill Arnold
@The Dangerman:
They will. A lot of sons of Russian mothers will be killed, some by people speaking Russian.
Eolirin
@Brachiator: Boris has enough domestic scandal going on that reacting weakly to this is probably political suicide.
This is what he’s already done:
Boris Johnson has announced sanctions against five Russian banks: Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank and the Black Sea Bank.
The Prime Minister has also sanctioned three “high net worth” individuals: Gennadiy Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg and Igor Rotenberg.
“Any assets they hold in the UK will be frozen, the individuals concerned will be banned from travelling here and we will prohibit all UK individuals and entities from having any dealings with them,” Johnson said.
“This the first tranche, the first barrage of what we are prepared to do and we hold further sanctions at readiness to be deployed.”
Raven Onthill
My tentative list of strategic responses:
I wonder if these will still seem like good ideas tomorrow.
Felanius Kootea
@jonas: I thought China signaled that it didn’t approve of the invasion while also refusing to back full-throated sanctions. They’re all over the place.
jonas
@Brachiator:
BJ recently made some noises about getting tough with the Russian oligarchs in London, but we’ll see what his government actually does. I’m not optimistic.
ETA: based on Eolirin’s comments above, it appears that he may actually be taking some concrete actions, so I stand corrected. Hope he continues.
HumboldtBlue
@SiubhanDuinne:
Indeed.
prostratedragon
@Leto: < whistle > We live in hope.
Peale
@Felanius Kootea: the occupiers of Tibet aren’t going to cast stones too much at the return revanchist empires.
sanjeevs
@jonas: Johnson was criticized in the House of Parliament yesterday for his weak response so far. Including flak from some Conservatives.
I’m not optimistic given that he went directly from the last meeting on sanctions (he was Foreign Office head when Russia used novichok in Salisbury) to a party in Italy held by one of the Ledbedevs.
Brachiator
I wonder whether Putin was committed to invading Ukraine no matter what. He seems to be following a deliberate course of action, unconcerned about any possible sanctions.
This is not to say that he is smart or will succeed, only that he seems to be determined and knows what he wants.
Raven Onthill
@Brachiator: it seems so.
prostratedragon
@Peale: For that very reason though, I can imagine they’d maintain a judicious silence as long as they can.
Eolirin
@sanjeevs: Johnson has so many problems and so many people already calling for his head that adding not doing enough about Russia to the pile is more likely than not to result in a vote of no confidence. I think the UK will ultimately pull through here, one way or another.
jonas
@Raven Onthill:
1. Putin has said that he would respond to being tossed of SWIFT as an act of war, so it’s not clear how that could be done.
2. Yes, but this will take years. European energy infrastructure would have to be reconstructed to bring in more gas from the North Sea (Norway), the US, and Middle East (which brings its own problems with it).
3. Most of eastern Europe is already in NATO. Ukraine was really the last major country not yet admitted and that’s what was freaking Putin out.
4. Merely supporting the Russian position isn’t a crime — but we should be exposing and shaming pro-Russian toadies in the media and politics wherever we can. And yes, coming down on pro-Putin oligarchs who have parked their ill-gotten gains in western countries is a must.
Peale
@sanjeevs: yep. He’s pretty much bought.
prostratedragon
@Brachiator: Maybe he is all in. Don’t think he was expecting Germany to hold up the pipeline so, uh, swiftly, yet he continued without a break.
Mallard Filmore
MSNBC guy in Moscow just said the Ruble is in free fall.
SiubhanDuinne
According to Aaron Rupar, who watches Fox so I don’t have to, TFG called in to Laura Ingraham’s show shortly after the invasion started. Hilarity ensued:
J.F.C. Unbelievable.
jonas
@Brachiator:
As I think Adam put it here the other day, it appears that he’s basically high on his own supply. He’s got a circle of yes-men around him telling him he’s a genius and that this plan can’t fail and that NATO and the US will crack at any minute and that nobody has the balls to resist him. As I wrote above, I think he’s assuming that what he’s doing will ultimately trigger a political/economic crisis within the US and NATO countries that will bring more favorable politicians to power and let him get away with it. Putting Trump in the White House certainly made him cocky.
Ruckus
@jonas:
Russia has a lot of power, mostly economic power because of gas and oil. Yes his military power is bigger than Ukraine but a whole bunch of the rest of the world is not much or at all in agreement with Russia other than buying oil and gas. He will likely do significant damage and people will die. In the long run he will do more damage to himself and Russia than to anyone else. This really does not gain him anything and will cost him significantly. It’s a dick move by a dick. If the world freezes a lot of the Russian money that is floating around, from their decades of screwing everyone, that is likely the thing that will decimate vlad. Now it could obviously get a lot worse and of course it just has, but if vlad tries to make it a lot worse, he’ll likely suffer very badly. But it’s never easy when a dictator decides that he’s not dictating over enough land or enough people.
Felanius Kootea
@Peale: Not to mention that they’d love to get away with something like this with Taiwan.
Another Scott
@Mallard Filmore: Yup.
Xe.com
Cheers,
Scott.
Eolirin
@jonas: We have nukes too you know. Let him consider it an act of war. If he wants to commit suicide and kill all of his people as well, and all of the people in the chain necessary to actually launch them do nothing to stop him, he can retaliate with nukes. I think someone puts a bullet in his head first though.
He has to be stopped. This can’t keep going on like this. The threat of nuclear war can’t be used to allow constant aggression and flagrant violation of international law. There’d be no end to it. He invades Poland, or the Baltics, actual NATO allies. Do we then ignore our responsibilities to our treaty partners because of the threat of nukes too?
Another Scott
via VladDavidzon
Cheers,
Scott.
RaflW
@Adam L Silverman: How much of a difference did TFG pulling out of Open Skies make? I saw the rhetoric that Russia was not in compliance, but also some commentaries that this was a blunder even so.
Brachiator
@Eolirin:
This is largely a sham, and while some Tories want to do more, the Conservative Party is still Johnson’s obedient puppy. Earlier today (or yesterday) a Liberal Democrat MP used parliamentary privilege to name 35 oligarchs who have escaped any kind of sanction. Quite a few of these people have been generous donors to the Conservative Party.
This makes the 3 individuals singled out by Boris Johnson look like the weak bit of political theater it really is.
Ruckus
@am:
No it’s not. 30 or 40 yrs ago it would have been. The problem for vlad or anyone else who would try this is that the world knows long before he actually flips the switch. There really aren’t as many surprises as life used to give. And the concept of that there was only one tool in the toolbox is also wrong. vlad is in a weak position. Maybe not as weak as Ukraine but his force isn’t as great as he’d like everyone to think. It ain’t nothing, for sure. But it isn’t as great as he likely thinks it is.
Jay
@Brachiator:
on the twitter, which I can no longer use easily, ( not logged in), one of the few remaining Independent Media groups in Russia, claims that Putin’s “Declaration of War” was filmed on Feb. 21st. They suspected it was because he was wearing the same tie as at his Security Council meeting. They later confirmed it with scraped meta data from the digital recording.
Did he also record a “climb down vid”? Who knows?
Mallard Filmore
@Another Scott: Won’t this make normal Russians rather poor?
Eolirin
@Brachiator: I’m just saying I don’t think it can be sustained. He’s going to need to ramp it up, and the conservatives are going to as well, because the pressure to do so when they’re already dealing with scandal after scandal will be immense.
Russia’s actions are generating sustained outrage across most of the world. The right wing attempts to paint Russia in a sympathetic light are mostly failing, and Putin’s attempts at creating a viable narrative for invasion have all failed. This is so clearly and obviously unjustified that only the most fringe parts of the right wing are saying otherwise. And creating rifts in their coalition in the process.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Sort of the problem isn’t it? Putin thinks he’s awesome, yet it all turns to shit so now he’s seeing conspiracies.
jonas
@Mallard Filmore: Nobody who matters in Putin’s Russia has their assets in rubles, but it will definitely suck for average Russians trying to buy anything but locally-produced staples.
Texasboyshaun
@bad santa: https://youtu.be/qCB_7-0O9Es
The full lyrics can be found at https://twitter.com/chrisdonato/status/1495813003635273731?s=21
Kattails
@dilbert dogbert: Malcolm Nance said the Global Hawk got out.
@HumboldtBlue: I just grabbed a screen shot Sarah Wood posted, from CNN ,dated 10/21/2019 of Hillary Clinton suggesting that the Russians are grooming Tulsi Gabbard for a third-party run. Her comment: Whether you want to believe it over not, Hillary Clinton is ALWAYS right.
Another Scott
@Mallard Filmore: One would think so.
But national economies are complex, people can tolerate a lot of pain if they want to, etc.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Another Scott:
Ukraine is currently claiming 5 fighters/bombers and one helicopter.
Leto
What Putin Fears Most
Intro updated to reflect the invasion.
Raven Onthill
I wonder if covid will slow the Russian troops. By all accounts their army – their whole country – is rotten with it.
Texasboyshaun
@dmsilev: or The Pirates of Petrograd
jonas
@SiubhanDuinne:
You know that he had to be sat down, probably numerous times, during his own presidency and have the concept of “operational secrecy” explained to him by stern-faced officers. So he knows whereof he speaks.
cain
Glenn Greenwald getting dragged – the man is truly a russian tool. Fuck him.
SiubhanDuinne
@Leto:
Michael McFaul has been on MSNBC a lot. He’s en fuego tonight.
Brachiator
@jonas:
You may be right about this. I don’t have strong opinions about this, other than supporting Biden and hoping for the best for the people of Ukraine. Otherwise, I can only note what Putin actually does. Unless someone has some actual intelligence information coming from those around Putin, I am cautious about any interpretation of whether he is an ego driven buffoon, like Trump, who is surrounded by yes men.
I do wonder about how many Western politicians Putin has bought off. I would think that this would be a smarter play than hoping that NATO and the US might crack.
I also am amazed at the degree to which Trump continues to shamelessly kiss Putin’s ass and how this seems to be acceptable to the GOP leadership.
Ruckus
@RaflW:
What did TFG ever do right?
Nothing, nada, zip, zero….
TFG is always a fuck up, always has been a fuck up for his entire life, and will be a fuck up till his last breath. Which he will likely fuck up.
am
@jonas:
1. Putin has said that he would respond to being tossed of SWIFT as an act of war, so it’s not clear how that could be done.
That doesn’t make it so and should have no bearing on US tactics.
Leto
@SiubhanDuinne: his book was a good primer for all of this. He’s basically been screaming about all of this for the past few months. Like a lot of us, he’s absolutely done with Putin’s shit.
Origuy
So this is interesting. I’m not sure it will work, or if it will make any difference.
Leto
@RaflW: @Ruckus: while there were valid criticisms of Russia failing to uphold the Treaty (not allowing flights over Georgia being an example), the usual maxim will always hold true: Did Agent Orange oversee it? Then ofc it was fucking awful, was harmful to US national security, and it did nothing but benefit Putin as it removed another way to observe military movements. It’s why NATO, and specifically Ukraine, didn’t want us to pull out. Those flights were a good source of data, as that data was widely shared among all of our allies (as well as with Russia itself. All Open Skies flight data was shared by both parties, then could be distributed).
A lifetime of fast food, no exercise, and hatred just won’t kill off that miserable fuck. His grave better be guarded 24/7/365 for infinity.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Origuy: Fun bit a trivia is the USSR never officially ended. There is a whole conspiracy theory about it.
Another Scott
@jonas: re #2:
Economy minister says Germany can do without Russian gas
They would help pay for increased prices, etc.
Cheers,
Scott.
SiubhanDuinne
@jonas:
True, except you left out the comic books. I’m pretty sure TFG’s tutorials always used comic books.
Kattails
Gin and Tonic mentioned @russian_starr as a link, that has been changed to @terrelljstarr, he’s in Ukraine right now.
Brachiator
@Eolirin:
The Tories believe that they have the scandals under control. Tory hardliners have already got what they wanted from Johnson, a relaxation of Covid restrictions and a ramping up of idiotic BREXIT policy. Moderate conservatives don’t quite no what to do.
This makes Johnson’s weak efforts even more remarkable. There are some British pundits who think that leaving the EU makes it easier to provide protection for the financial assets of various Russian oligarchs, no matter what Johnson might say in public.
We will see what happens. If necessary, I think most people would want to see stronger sanctions imposed.
Elizabelle
The Ukrainians and all their/our allies are in my thoughts today. What a world, with Putin and despots like him in it.
Good morning jackals. (At least, it is past sunup in Germany.)
Ruckus
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Of course it’s the problem, it always is with a dictator. They think they are always great, that their shit doesn’t stink. They always get in far too deep, FA&FO. And they almost always do a fuckton of collateral damage in the process. That doesn’t change the fact that they almost always get complacent and do stupid shit that causes a lot of loss of life, because they don’t give a shit and because they get old and have layers of sycophants around them. The only hope is that he goes fast, in one way or another, because that almost always ends the worst part of the story.
I’m not trying to blow sunshine up anyone’s butt here, this is major, about as major as it gets, but vlad is not in the strongest position here. He is stronger than Ukraine in numbers but is he in reality? Or is he doing this as a bully, whom most often get their comeuppance as they get too sure of themselves or as they get too crazy or go too far? Any part of that last sound familiar?
Leto
Tanks streaming into Ukraine via Belarus from the Senkiva town border checkpoint. They’re live streaming it now. That’s roughly 3 hours from Kyiv.
HumboldtBlue
@Kattails:
I saw that too!
Jay
https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/23/22947769/twitter-osint-russia-ukraine-invasion-suspended-error
Yeah, right,……… error my ass.
jonas
@SiubhanDuinne:
“Skippy the Squirrel Hides An Acorn: A Happy Adventure Guide to Operational Secrecy”
Sebastian
@Raven Onthill:
I’ve been wondering about this the whole time. Have you seen the squalor the Russian troops were living in all these weeks?
Kattails
Malcolm Nance posting constantly, he was just in Ukraine.
Latvia invoking Article 4 of NATO treaty, compelling members to convene when another member is concerned about its territorial integrity; new strain of wiper malware detected not just in Ukraine but also Latvia and Lithuania.
Ruckus
@Leto:
What cemetery will have him? You think his wife is going to pay to bury him? Of course they could leave the grave open and sell tickets to anyone that wants to fill it up with urine and shit. Now that would be a moneymaker. Not necessarily good for overall business but still, would make money.
Sebastian
@Origuy:
Holy shit!
Leto
@Ruckus: his only legal revenue source, as well as his first true public service. I will shit on his grave.
Kattails
Senate Rethluglicans just tweeted “America stands with the people of Ukraine”. Those bloody lying hypocritical asswipes. I hope Trump chokes on Putin’s balls.
Jay
@Leto:
so far, looks like a two pronged ground attack so far, with a strike into southern Ukrainian held Lugansk through Milove, from the east, and a northern attack from the junction of the Russian/Belarus/Ukrainian border.
Ruckus
@Leto:
Prepare to stand in line.
Can you hold it for the few hundred thousand people in front of you?
piratedan
@am: well, the US stated that if he went ahead with the invasion then these would be the repurcussions, so if Vlad says that he will escalate, then (as much as I hate the idea of it) then we fulfill our words with deeds.
If we want to be who we say that we are…
Leto
@Kattails: Here’s the official announcement: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
jonas
@Leto: Hope they meet some stiff resistance.
Ruckus
@Leto:
Also, an appointment to shit on a grave site?
The crowd management situation will be the true test of humanity.
Leto
@Ruckus: yup. Mind over matter. I don’t mind cause he don’t matter.
@Jay: was expected but still hate seeing it. Also just another confirmation Putin is lying about “just staying in the east”.
Jay
@Jay:
armoured Russian columns now striking north out of Crimea apparently.
It seems all the traffic cams have become open source intel.
Leto
@Ruckus: one of the singular times he managed to unify us all for a noble purpose.
@jonas: same. I know they have their own stories of courage, heroism, and selflessness, but I also hope they take inspiration from Finland. Make the fuckers pay.
Leto
@Ruckus: one of the singular times he managed to unify us all for a noble purpose.
@jonas: same. I know they have their own stories of courage, heroism, and selflessness, but I also hope they take inspiration from Finland. Make the fuckers pay.
Kattails
@Leto: Michael McFaul , former US ambassador to Russia, calling for “shock and awe” sanctions immediately, and to include Belarus as Lukashenko is an ally of Putin in this.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I was thinking that too, about Putin having that Trump vibe about him now.
Jay
@Leto:
while his Security Council tape made it appear that Russian “peacekeepers” were probably going after the “liberation” of Ukrainian still held areas of Donetsk and Lugansk,
His “Declaration of War”, most likely filmed the same day (Feb 21st) bluntly states that his goal is the decapitation of Ukrainian Democracy, Society, and at the minimum the establishment of a Puppet State, at the maximum, the forced incorporation of Ukraine into Russia.
For Ukraine right now, it’s a 3 Front war with attacks from the South, East and North, by both Russian military and Belorussian Military.
Tehanu
@HumboldtBlue:
What you said.
Mallard Filmore
@am:
So … kick Belarus off the SWIFT system first.
oatler
Where’s George Bush now? Does he want to gaze into Putin’s eyes now? See his soul in there?
Jay
@Mallard Filmore:
given that Pootie Poot is already engaged in an act of war,
fuckem, call him, see how Russia likes a 3 Front War with 75% of his military invading Ukraine.
I am sure that Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Finland would like some parts of what is now Russia, that Stalin seized, back.
what’s he going to do, go to war with all the countries in the SWIFT system?
prostratedragon
@Ruckus: Think I heard that Bedminster awaits him and family. Bet anywhere else would require a large premium.
Ksmiami
@Jay: I totally agree – launch a huge NATO counterattack and stop Putin now. We have nukes too you lumbering evil sack of protoplasm; you 1976 Cold War thug. Evil people may start wars but they rarely end in their favor.
SiubhanDuinne
Reports of casualties beginning to come in (not sure if this is just Kyiv or elsewhere or what). Six dead, seven wounded, 19 missing. Also not sure whether this refers to civilians, military, or a mix. I expect (a) the numbers will shift significantly, and (b) we’ll learn more details in a few hours. But there are grieving families in Ukraine tonight.
Leto
Imgur is hosting quite a few video’s out of Ukraine showing the opening attacks. Not linking them, but if you want to see them you can go there. I will link this solidarity flag:
I Stand with Ukraine!
Off to bed.
gene108
@Ruckus:
People with big egos, once they’ve sunk resources into an endeavor, like time, money, etc. cannot easily let go and cut their losses. They have to prove they are right, or they are able to win with what they’ve done, etc.
Their egos won’t let them walk away, because they can’t accept looking weak, perception of losing, etc.
I think Putin has a big ego. That’s all there is to it.
He put all those forces on the border. He had false flag cover stories setup to justify invading, which US/Western intelligence exposed publicly before he could execute them. He could come up with a face saving excuse, which would be a lame excuse most likely, and backdown, or try to prove he’s right, he’s going to win and beat Ukraine, NATO, the USA, etc.
His ego won’t let him choose the former.
Jay
@Ksmiami:
no, kick Russia out of SWIFT, full sanctions, turn off Russian oil and gas, seize every former ruble in the West,
pre-stage forces,
Let Putin declare war, then kick Russia’s ass, if he has the guts to declare war on the West.
Once he has declared war, we are fully within our rights to decimate every Russian military force and invade Russia.
“We” the western Nuclear Powers still have a “first strike” policy, based on a hostile enemy state at active war with us, readying their nukes. It doesn’t have to be a nuclear strike, we can just sink every Russian nuke sub that sorties, charge into the Sea of Otosk and sink their subs, drone or bomb every mobile launcher that leaves it’s shelter, drone or bomb every silo that even looks like it’s getting ready.
Ksmiami
@Jay: I think we shouldn’t be afraid of Putin. Fine, let him declare war on the west… we will destroy him utterly
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
The west has lacked military credibility ever since “Burn Notice” was cancelled.
Jay
@Ksmiami:
it’s not a case of “fear”, I’m saying, call his possible bluff, give him enough rope to hang himself if he wants to.
Sebastian
Folks, don’t overreact.
This is the first large land war with millions of camera-equipped mobile phones. The pictures you will see are terrible and frightening, that’s what war looks like. Secondary trauma is real, be careful how it affects you.
At the same time try to keep perspective. Just because you see big explosions doesn’t mean you are watching a well-oiled unstoppable war machine.
To be honest, and this early it’s hard to judge because of the fog of war and all, but to me, this looks rather like a fucking slapstick shitshow from the Russians. Yes, they are rolling in with a lot of armor and they did a number of airstrikes but this is not how a competent superpower would conduct its opening move of a major operation. Just compare this to the videos from Baghdad during Shock & Awe and what we are seeing here is nothing like it.
If we can assume the Ukrainian Armed Forces are reporting truthful numbers (which is always questionable, they might want to embellish numbers for morale and propaganda), then Russia has already lost half a dozen aircraft in the first few hours.
This doesn’t mean that we can succumb to some romantic notion that the Russian army will be pulverized like the Germans in Stalingrad. But if, and it is a HUGE IF, these reports are true then we might be (again, a big MIGHT) looking at a Russian army that is incompetent and/or suffering under significant operational difficulties.
Judging from the “Speznaz” video that was leaked recently, where I wasn’t sure if it was a fucking parody or not, I was getting some serious vibes reminding me of Trump in the White House with 100 Big Macs.
Jay
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
he’s now on Law and Order.
Jay
@Sebastian:
the Ukrainian Military, Government and Economy isn’t what it was in 2014.
and Russia’s military isn’t either.
the Russian’s have according to Ukraine, taken Milove, a 5700 person village just across the border from Russia, ( Milove’s train station has been in Russia for decades), so far, with nothing but Ukrainian Border Guards, ( think Customs and Border Control) standing between them and Milove, in the first day of the war.
the Flu Trux Klan seized more territory in the first 24 hours,…..
opiejeanne
I am sickened by the invasion news. I mean, I am feeling physically ill because of this. I’m supposed to be asleep, but not sure if I will be able to sleep due to the ache in the pit of my stomach.
Tony Jay
@Eolirin:
Flobby might need to go hard and wide with sanctions on Russian oligarchs, but that need butts right up against the incontestable fact that the Tory Party he leads is funded by a handful of Russian donors and the entire high-end London property market is basically just a laundering service for hundreds of billions of pounds worth of stolen Russian cash that in turn washes through the British Establishment like meth at a Tennessee wedding.
Frankly, Johnson doesn’t have the political skill to thread that needle. His entire skillset revolves around telling people he needs something from whatever they want to hear and giving his chums in the far-Right domestic media scripted soundbites for their stories. None of that helps him now. Putin’s insane gambit is an existential threat to the continued existence of the Tory Party as we know it, and frankly I don’t see how they get out of this with a bought and paid for Russian asset as their leader.
Oh, and it’s always worth pointing out that the topic of stopping dark Russian money getting laundered through London and buying up influence over British politics was raised in Parliament way back in 2018 by British History’s Greatest Monster, but he was shouted down… by his own right-wing MPs. And yet that’s the same guy those MPs and the British Media have spent years trying to paint as a creepy Russian mole.
Yeah, it’s not just the Tories who are going to have questions raised about their funding when this blows up properly.
Sebastian
@Jay:
We shall see. We are seeing the same five videos looped over and over. My guess is the Russians will advance quickly and cover a lot of flat ground and then in a few days, Russian armor will get fucked in the Ukrainian Javelin whack-a-mole Olympics.
The Russians are notoriously bad at organizing anything. Their supply lines are a shitshow when no one is shooting at them.
I would keep my eyes on the South and Southeast. Mariupol and Berdyansk are primary targets, Putin wants to connect Crimea to Russia. Same for Odessa, it’s the Cancun of the Back Sea and borders Moldovia, the two-bit mobsters want it as much Trump wants Mar-a-Lago and pussy.
sab
@Tony Jay: Just in case that electoral funding is viewed as some sort of weird lefty thing.
These funders control your electorate, unless some wieird event (USA 2008 financial collapse with a good politician clears their minds)
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@jonas:
It sure would be nice to have those NSA programs around that Snowjob/Greenwald burned.
sab
@Tony Jay: Getting rid of that Russian oligarch money would surely make London, UK and Ohio home prices more reasonable.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@jonas:
Im watching “Circle of Evil” on Netflix about the toadies surrounding Hitler and how their fawning steered and enabled him. It is eerily consistent with Putin, Trump, Kim…..
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@am: Unfortunately, war, unlike peace, doesn’t require bipartisan agreement, so if a mafioso with nuclear weapons considers something to be an act of war, there’s going to be a war. He doesn’t get to claim provocation, but if he says that locking Russia out of SWIFT will lead to war, then we have to assume that locking Russia out of SWIFT will lead to war, and plan accordingly.
Amir Khalid
@sab:
Yes it would, but someone’s going to have to take a bath as the market deflates: not just the Russian oligarchs who have infected London with their ill-gotten money, but also less-evil people who own a residence in or around the city.
Tony Jay
@sab:
Yup. C.R.E.A.M. is the one, true guiding philosophy of our global ‘ruling class’, everything else is just window-dressing for the Stenographer’s Guild or red-meat for their Orc legions.
Sloane Ranger
@Eolirin:
Tom Tugenhat, the Chair of the Foreign Relations committee has already said that the limited nature of these sanctions actually empowered Putin rather than deterred him. And Tugenhat is a Conservative.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Bruce K in ATH-GR:
I have iodine pills and a half a box of iodized salt, living 20 miles outside a 500 warhead attack scenario city that is in the downwind cone of Kansas and Missouri missile field fallout….
Jay
@Sebastian:
the “problem” for the Ukrainian Military, is it’s now a 3 front war, from the north, from Belorussia and Russia, from the east from Russia, from the south, Crimea.
The Mariupol region has been an active war zone since Minsk, with “holds” removed on NATO weaponry, because of the Russian “open” invasion, I think the south for the Russians will be hard to “crack”. Same with the east.
I think the northern flank is more of a “problem”, along with the Ukrainian Navy, on the north, because of Belorussia joining in, and in the south, because of the weakness of the Ukraine Navy. ( Lack of ships and firepower, not commitment).
The base that Ukraine deployed the Backtayar drones and Harrops to was struck today by RUAF forces and missile strikes, hopefully, they missed most of their targets.
Even with attempts by the RUAF to “up” their precision strike abilities, they have not demonstrated that ability in the real world.
The Ukrainians are fighting, more power to them.
sab
@Amir Khalid: I know, but I don’t know how to fix that for people who bought at the top of the market. What about everyone else who said ” Yikes. The residential market is too high.”
Brachiator
@sab:
Not really. Some areas are always in high demand and if you don’t have Russian oligarchs, it might be some other group with money to burn.
Jay
@Bruce K in ATH-GR:
claiming something is an “Act of War”, is just hyperbole, unless you either declare war, or go to war. It’s just a threat. Bullshit words unless backed up, a bluff.
75% of the Russian Military ( and a similar level of the Belorussian Military) are “engaged” in or on Ukraine.
Enact SWIFT and other Sanctions,
Putin either has to “declare” or engage in war with all the NATO/Swift countries, or STFU.
the current Russian “backers” and “Neutrals”, Iran, Syria, China, Norks, Belorussia, then have to take a hard look at their own situations.
Eg, China, no SWIFT, no imports, no exports, in a time of Covid.
Jay
@sab:
you take a bath. In Vancouver, property prices reached astronomical highs, then collapsed, from the 1960’s to the ‘aughts, every 5-7 years. Only since 2000 has there been a 22 year history of values and prices constantly rising as Vancouver became a “World City”, ( ie, Offshore Money” hiding),
If you are up to date on your mortgage and rates don’t explode, you will survive.
If your retirement plan was selling the property, reaping a small fortune, you did not “choose wisely”,
Noname
@opiejeanne: Same here. I am heartsick at the thought that while we are still dealing with a pandemic that is killing people everyday, there are men willing to kill more, intentionally.
Jay
@Brachiator:
here, in Vancouver, you can “option” a 1BDR condo in a tower for as little as $15k “down”. Your deposit will “earn” 2.5% to 3.8% interest during the 5-10 years it takes to build.
Current retail prices are $470k to $840k dependent on location, location, location, size and fit and finish.
So, for a $15k plus investment, when the tower condo is actually built, you can sell it in 5-7 years for probably upwards of a million, given current trends. All you have to do is pay the monthly mortgage on the sold value, ( not the appreciated value), until it’s sold, or rent it at a rate that covers the mortgage.
The apartment we live in is owned offshore. Downpayment at the time was $10k, sold, by the developer was $300k, current value is $470k, in just 10 years, rent is $1500 a month, including the extra property speculation taxes.
Should be “interesting” this year, ( not interesting for us) because of the mail stacking up ( not addressed to us, but the owner), they arn’t paying their taxes. So, the City could seize the property and we would be out on our asses in very short order.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Jay:
Can you purchase tax bills in BC? Could save you a move, and create a nest egg.
MagdaInBlack
@opiejeanne: Same.
Miss Bianca
@jonas:
He’s already committed to war. I say we should let him have it.
H-Bob
@Leto: That speck in between Poland and Lithuania is Prussia. It’s a little funny as I remember in school being lectured about how Prussia was different from Russia.
The “German” part of Prussia started as Brandenberg but the Holy Roman Emperor allowed the ruler of Brandenberg to call himself the “King in Prussia”. Thereafter, to underline such royal status, the ruler referred to all of his territory as Prussia.
Ruckus
@gene108:
I also believe it takes a rather large ego to be in charge of say, a country. It also takes actual intelligence to do it well but someone with rather limited intelligence can get elected if they know an inordinate amount of bullshit. Take 45. (Please!) His entire life is an inordinate amount of bull and shit. But he is not in any way lacking in ego. He has ego coming out of every pore. Ego is a necessary part of living, it powers the concept of ability. It can also way overpower that concept. But as you imply an overpowering ego can lead people to do things that they should regret but because of that ego, likely never will realize that they are assholes. Assholes of the most gigantic size and level of stupidity.
Ruckus
@Sebastian:
Given Russia and vlad, I’d bet that morale among the Russian soldiers isn’t great, given the conditions they’ve had to live in the last few weeks, I’d bet even worse than normal. And having been in a military, I can attest that even under good conditions (OK I’m going to have to stop laughing to type any more) morale can be low, just because being in the military can cause your life to suck and end. It’s a daily grind at best of times, at the worst of times it doesn’t come close to just sucking.
J R in WV
@Texasboyshaun:
OK, so another critter adopted out by BJ Jackals. :~) hurray ! !
I know you have lots of other problems, TxShaun, but I hope you manage to work through everything. If you need a hand, you know where we are.
J R in WV
@Raven Onthill:
Pretty sure most of Eastern Europe is already IN NATO. Romania, Poland, the Baltic states, Bulgaria. No one wanted to wait to be “invited ” to rejoin the Warsaw Pact. Heck, even Albania…