Just a brief house keeping note at top. If I keep doing these updates, I’m going to title them War for Ukraine from here on out with the update # after the colon. I am not going to retitle the first one I did two nights ago.
About an hour ago Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, warned that Russian forces are closing on the city:
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko has warned Russian troops are “very close to the capital” and predicted “a difficult night” for the city.
“The situation now is threatening for Kyiv, no exaggeration,” he said on his Telegram channel. “The night and the morning will be difficult.”— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) February 25, 2022
? Air raid warning in Kyiv. And missiles being fired on the capital. I’ve counted three large strikes in past five minutes. Watching from my window and seeing the sky light up; roar of explosions reverberating across the city.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 25, 2022
President Zelenskyy has both tweeted out video of him in Kyiv to knock back Russian disinformation that he’d abandoned the city and its defense and tweeted that he’d had a discussion with President Biden about next steps:
President, his Chief of Staff, the Prime Minister, head of the Servant of the People are all in Kyiv.
We will win! ?????? pic.twitter.com/1ae8hZnthC
— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) February 25, 2022
Resupply of weaponry is continuing to flow into Ukraine:
⚡️BREAKING: Kyiv home guard, the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade, now operate British-provided NLAWs.
Welcome to hell, motherfuckers. pic.twitter.com/9OVuQhQkTC— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 25, 2022
About four hours ago, AMB (ret) McFaul, tweeted that NATO has (finally!) activated the NATO Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VHRJTF)
Hearing now that NATO's Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) has been activated. Excellent news.
— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) February 25, 2022
The NATO Very High Readiness Joint Task Force is:
The NATO Response Force (NRF) is a highly ready and technologically advanced multinational force made up of land, air, maritime and Special Operations Forces (SOF) components that the Alliance can deploy quickly, wherever needed. In addition to its operational role, the NRF can be used for greater cooperation in education and training, increased exercises, support for disaster relief and better use of technology.
A powerful package
NATO Allies decided at the 2014 Wales Summit to enhance the NRF by creating a “spearhead force” within it, known as the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force or VJTF. This enhanced NRF is one of the measures of the Readiness Action Plan (RAP) agreed by Allies to respond to the changes in the security environment.
The enhanced NATO Response Force includes:
- a command and control element: Operational command of the NRF alternates between Allied Joint Force Commands in Brunssum and Naples;
- the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF): This NRF element – about 20,000 strong – includes a multinational land brigade of around 5,000 troops and air, maritime and SOF components. Leading elements are ready to move within two to three days. Allies assume the lead role for the VJTF on a rotational basis;
Rather than just give a run down of events, I wanted to provide a bit of analysis now that Ukraine has withstood the first two days of the invasion. That’ll be after the jump.
The positive signs I’m seeing are:
- The Ukrainians appear to be very motivated, for obvious reasons.
- Zelenskyy has risen to the occasion. As have the Klitschko brothers and other Ukrainian leaders, elites, and notables.
- The Ukrainian military is performing well so far.
- The Snake Island defenders and the retaking of the airport outside of Kyiv are going to be huge for military and civilian morale.
- As is the MiG 29 pilot or pilots flying sorties over Kyiv and now known as The Ghost of Kyiv.
- As of now, based on numbers from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainians are inflicting almost 8 killed in action (KIA) on the Russians for every Ukrainian KIA. This too will be a big morale booster for the Ukrainians.
- Russian troops, including at least one whole unit, are surrendering. Again a major morale booster.
My concerns:
- Putin has committed only half of his forces so far. He still has plenty of reserves to throw at Ukraine.
- He has also been much more restrained than expected in use of AirPower, his missiles, and cyber warfare.
- I would very much like to know why he has held back.
I want to build out the killed in action line of analysis a bit. After the first day of fighting, the reporting was that the Ukrainians had killed 800 Russian Soldiers while suffering only 137 KIAs. By last night eastern time, the reporting was that the Ukrainians had killed an additional 2,000 Russian Soldiers bringing the total to 2,800. I have not seen an update to the Ukrainian KIA totals after the second day. I’ve also seen the numbers as 400 Russian KIA after the first day of fighting. Even if the lower number is the accurate one, and I don’t think it is, this would be 4 Russian Soldiers killed for just over every one Ukrainian Soldier killed. And while the Russians definitely have more Soldiers massed on Ukraine’s borders to throw at the Ukrainians, this is still a huge imbalance in favor of the Ukrainians. The reason I think the higher number may be more accurate is that the Russian Health Ministry has issued a nation wide mobilization of Russian doctors, nurses, and other medical person for a “mass medical emergency” event in Russia, but the orders make it clear this will be official travel. I think that this reporting is a good indicator that the Russian casualty numbers that Ukraine’s MOD is putting out are pretty close to accurate. And that Putin never expected this type of resistance from the Ukrainians or for it to be this effective. Comparative context here is important. The US lost 4,431 personnel in Iraq as of 19 JUL 2021. It is being reported that the Russians have lost almost 2/3rds of that in two days! Even if the number is half what is being reported, that is still an amazing number of KIAs in just two days.
Given the time difference, another long sleepless night has fallen on Ukraine. While we wait for more news of Ukraine’s defense, here’s some of what is giving inspiration to the Ukrainians defending their homes right now.
The Snake Island Defenders:
The Ukrainian defenders of Snake Island died as heroes ? #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/b114AiUwoh https://t.co/TnigwvlNrv
— Wu-Tang Is For The Children (@WUTangKids) February 25, 2022
The Ghost of Kyiv:
#Kyiv #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/wSMpbhS7cY
— Aldin ?? (@aldin_ww) February 24, 2022
#Kyiv pic.twitter.com/gcqAqq1t4T
— Aldin ?? (@aldin_ww) February 24, 2022
One Grandma that has no fucks left to give!
Російські окупаційні війська зайшли в місто Геніческ.⁰Відео спілкування з російським загарбником розмістила на своїй сторінці в соцмережі ФБ місцева мешканка.⁰На відео російський військовий не відповідає на питання,яка мета його перебування в місті. ⁰Відео з’явилось о 13:28. pic.twitter.com/Lp95AJu1Tk
— НепоганаТетяна (@ian_tanya) February 24, 2022
Transcript of the Ukrainian grandmother telling a Russian soldier to put sunflower seeds in his pocket, so when he dies on their land sunflowers will grow where he fell. She’s wonderful. pic.twitter.com/LC25fOfZ6h
— Jacquie Stephens ? (@Jazmo0712) February 25, 2022
Finally, this was tweeted out yesterday by a Canadian diplomat:
The biggest test in @NATO's history is at hand.
Putin is the aggressor our alliance was created to defend against.
He is engaged in a pivotal war of conquest.
The fight to defend Euro-Atlantic values is happening right now, in Ukraine.#ArmUkraine #shelteroursky #NFZ
— Chris Alexander (@calxandr) February 25, 2022
If you believe this is a fight to defend Euro-Atlantic values, then fight. I get that President Biden has to run the traps here at home given the domestic political situation, as well as the ones with our EU allies and partners because some of them seem to have gotten some selective amnesia over the past 70 years. So this isn’t a complaint about what the administration is or is not doing because I understand the process, but Putin has made it clear that this is step 1. If he succeeds, he’ll consolidate, take time to rebuild, then its the Baltics. Then try to repeat the cycle in Poland. Then try to repeat the cycle again in the Caucasus.
Right now we have someone who is willing to be the tip of the spear partner in this fight. The Ukrainians are dug in, holding beyond anything I think anyone could’ve imagined on Monday. Their president is begging us, daring us, shaming us to commit. The big ask is denial of flight over Ukraine to Russian military air assets. That’s it. Fine, we can’t use NATO assets because of Putin’s ambiguity and threats. We can’t use the Finns or the Swedes for the same reason. I get it. What the fuck are the Israelis and the Jordanians doing this week? You can’t tell me King Abdullah wouldn’t put on his flight suit for this. If we can’t get a single non-NATO, non-EU partner to actually run interference for us on this, providing the necessary fig leaf, we need a complete rethink of our entire defense alliance concept.
For those worried about Putin’s ambiguous threats, the DOD has determined it’s a bluff.
A shred of good news. Asked about Putin seemingly alluding to the threat of nuclear force, a senior U.S. defense official says this:
"I want to caveat this by saying we can't know perfect detail about their strategic posture. But we don't see an increased threat in that regard."
— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) February 24, 2022
If we have reasonably concluded it is a bluff then we need to rise to the occasion the way the Ukrainians are. We find some way to deny flight. We find a way to hit the damn hypersonics we believe Putin put in Kaliningrad as a threat to our EU allies’ capitols to freeze our decision making to remove that threat. But we don’t sit around, claim that NATO is the strongest military alliance in history, while all NATO can do is hold meetings while its member states impose sanctions that may or may not be effective. If Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is the threat that everyone is saying it is, then we must rise to meet it. Right now the most unlikely of national leaders, President Zelenskyy is doing so. Right now the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian citizens are doing so. Maybe, just maybe we and our NATO and EU allies should do so ourselves.
Open thread!
Join the Fight – Harnessing the Power: Building Relationships
The Moar You Know
Every last member, but especially Germany, needs to get the big picture; this is put up or shut up time.
And WRT to Germany, there is no reason to think Putin’s gonna stop at their border. Just the opposite, in fact.
The shit has hit the fan, folks. Time to see what we’re all made of.
JPL
Adam, I read that Russia was holding back cyber warfare because it could affect Poland also. That would activate Nato. Since I saw it on the internet, not sure what to think about it. Any thoughts about that?
Adam L Silverman
@The Moar You Know: Give this a read, it provides some important context for how the Germans got to where they are on this:
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/what-can-we-learn-from-the-germans-about-confronting-our-history
WaterGirl
If you keep using the Ukraine category, these posts will show up under Ukraine under Featuring in the sidebar.
Adam L Silverman
@JPL: It wouldn’t surprise me. But I’ve not seen anything on it.
The Moar You Know
The Israelis owe us 70 years worth of favors. If they don’t show up for this, not another dime.
And yeah, the Jordanians are just waiting to be asked. They’d love nothing better than to go in and show they’re a world player, not to be fucked with.
Adam L Silverman
@WaterGirl: I have been using the Ukraine category. Are you suggesting I should stop because I’m cluttering up that sidebar or continue because that’s where we want it to show up? I’m just seeking a bit of clarity.
CaseyL
I hope – I have to hope – there’s a lot going on covertly. Weapons routed through Poland, maybe some SpecOps on the scene in non-uniform. I mean, FFS, we’ve been funding this shit for 75 years, maybe use it for something constructive just this once? But certainly covert actions would not be announced in any way, shape or form.
Using non-NATO nations’ air forces to establish a no-fly zone would be genius – but I don’t see it happening. Both Jordan and Israel are only stable on the surface. Israel has its own version of Trumpism to worry about, and Jordan’s King is not at all popular back home. A setback over Ukraine airspace – particularly if, say, King Abdullah was shot down and killed- would throw both countries into chaos. Just what we need right now!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Another comparison to that 2,800 dead in two days for the Russians is they lost 3,000 dead in the two Chechen Wars over two years. And that insurgency is still going on, twenty years later.
Adam L Silverman
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: And Kadyrov made a video yesterday showing him sending off 10,000 of his hardened fighters to assist Russian forces in Ukraine.
JoyceH
Anyone else experiencing Game of Thrones flashbacks while watching the news? Today I found myself thinking, “Now don’t get too attached to Zelensky – he’s going to die.”
Yarrow
Thank you for these posts, Adam. Really appreciate your knowledge and insight into the situation.
eclare
IMO, which is worth what you pay for it, past time to kick RUS out of SWIFT. I know the hold up is some EU countries. You’d think they might have a bit more sense of urgency…
Adam L Silverman
@CaseyL: Abdullah would do the photo op part, I don’t expect he’d actually fly a mission. We need a semi-facetious font or color.
Adam L Silverman
@JoyceH: Never watched the show, never read the books. So no.
Adam L Silverman
@eclare: I’ve seen reporting by tweet that both Germany and Italy are now on board with this. I’m waiting for confirmation from news sources I actually have heard of.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Adam L Silverman: Yes, it occured to me that only reason they would have 10,000 harden fighters is because that war never stopped. Putin is looking more and more like as big of a fraud who ignores his mistakes as Trump is every day.
Yarrow
The UK and EU did this earlier today and the US is as well:
Not quite sure when they go into effect.
eclare
@Adam L Silverman: Gotcha, thanks!
hueyplong
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks for this thread and the promise of more. I’ll be checking in constantly about possible German and italian support.
JPL
@JoyceH: I didn’t read the Game of Thrones, but was Biden blamed by the assholes?
The Moar You Know
@Adam L Silverman: oh, I know why. And I did read it, and I get it. But they are going to be next on the list if they don’t step up. There are a lot of reasons for any of us to wish for the continued existence of a non-armed, pacifist Germany. That frankly would be my preference save for one exceptional set of circumstances I never thought I’d see in my life, and those circumstances are now here.
But there will not be a Germany if Putin is not stopped immediately. We’ve seen this exact game plan before, executed, ironically, by Germany. Putin may well have read Shirer’s book and decided to run the old script word for word as a new release.
realbtl
Thanks as always Adam for your posts.
My fear/tin foil hat is that Putin is too smart to set off the nukes but instead wil threaten to blow up Chernobyl.
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you for the link, and what a good read.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Would kicking Russia out of SWIFT go forward over the objections of banks?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@realbtl: The prevailing winds would blow most of the stuff into Russia proper. At the point Putin would have gone full Donald Trump.
Roger Moore
@JoyceH:
I can’t think about him without tearing up. The best he can hope for is that the Russians will think he makes a better example as a prisoner than a martyr, and he has to know it. But he also knows his country needs him to stay, so he’s staying. I just wish there were something we could do to save him that wouldn’t undermine his sacrifice.
Gin & Tonic
Ukraine asked Israel for the Iron Dome missile defense system and Israel said no.
Nettoyeur
I listened to the Snake Island audio. I speak Russian. There’s a bit of conversation on the defender end, and they they tell the Russians “Иди нахуй”- go fuck yourself (the Russian version is more taboo). They know they’re doomed. It’s the Alamo, Flight 93….
The Ukrainians, including Pres. Zelenskyy, are as badass as the defenders of Stalingrad. Russia used to celebrate heroism like that…
As for Putin: Сука блать
squid696
Which friendly countries have Soviet-era jets and helicopters that can send them to Ukraine to use and would not require any real re-training for Ukrainian pilots to fly? India, Egypt, I don’t know. That would seem to be the quickest way to help Ukraine’s air forces. Also, we should be sending them anti-ship missiles to take out the Russian fleet. The shit will get real in Russia as soon as one of their ships is sunk. We should also be ramping up anti-government forces in Syria. The gloves should come off there as far as going after Russian troops there.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: I do not know.
Fair Economist
Casualty figures for the enemy are always seriously exaggerated in war. Always. That said, Ukraine must have caused a lot of casualties to stop so many offensive thrusts, and by virtue of modern Russia never having been in a serious war as Russia (only as the USSR) I’m confident Russia has just had its two worst-ever casualty days.
trollhattan
BBC linked to this video they verify as accurate in depicting a Melitipol hospital being shelled and fired upon. The NEXTA Twitter account has a lot of video and breaking news, but I won’t claim to know who they are or whether everything is parsed for accuracy. It’s war, after all.
Gin & Tonic
@Nettoyeur: I don’t know Zelensky, but he gives the impression of someone who is prepared to die for his country. “Surprising” doesn’t do it justice.
Yarrow
schrodingers_cat
@squid696: India is friendly towards Russia, not NATO. It has a long standing relationship predating the current government in power by decades. Many of the weapons systems that the Indian military uses are Russian. Also the rupee-ruble trade is not new
I haven’t read any condemnations of Russia from official sources in India. Sadly, I don’t see this changing.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I’m aware. That’s why I put what I did about the Israelis in there. As I wrote, as the final part of answer on why I think Israel did that to a retired general who asked my take on it:
Plenty of shame to go around right now.
Gin & Tonic
Yeah, anyway, thanks for this post Adam. Well put-together, but as I said downstairs, I need a break. I’ve been on this since before dawn.
trollhattan
@Fair Economist:
Those of us who were wee kids during Vietnam recall vividly the nightly news (Cronkite, Huntley-Brinkley) battlefield body counts. It would always be heavily in “favor” of the US, presumably to make stomaching those young American deaths easier.
Me, being a little kid wondered why Vietnam had not run out of soldiers, since it was so small and America so large.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I was up at 5:30 EST checking the updates. So I feel you.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Incidentally all the mainland Chinese at work today are “the Ukraine war is terrible, it must stop now!” which I assume is what is coming out of the Beijing.
Adam L Silverman
@squid696: India is backing Putin. I wouldn’t expect much out of Egypt either.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Yup. It’s 1933 again.
Yarrow
@Gin & Tonic: Remember to take care of yourself. There may not be much you can do right now but if there is something you can do you want to be as rested and sharp as you can to help. Appreciate your comments in all the threads.
trollhattan
@Yarrow: That’s gonna hurt. I’ve watched a shitton of YouTube car repair videos by Russians to learn how to fix my car. Seems like a thing.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: India announced it is setting up a direct rupee to rouble system to help Russia avoid the sanctions.
The Moar You Know
@Nettoyeur: I am not a terribly courageous person. But damn, I would hope if I were ever in a situation like that, that I’d go out like they did, with some goddamn pride, head held high. Because they surely knew they were going to die regardless of their answer.
I don’t know if I could do it, and I hope to never have to find out.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Just saw a post on Instagram from my nephew. Photo shows his knee, his favorite blanket, an AK-47 and about 60 rounds.
schrodingers_cat
@Adam L Silverman: Rupee-Ruble exchange is not new. India’s strategic partnership with Russia at least goes back to the Bangladesh war if not before.
Also Modi’s BJP has dreams of an Akhand Bharat so even ideologically they are not opposed to what Putin is doing.
Adam L Silverman
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: There was reporting from over night that Xi called Putin and told him enough was enough. My guess is Putin sold this to Xi as a cakewalk, which it isn’t. The last thing Xi needs is the Taiwanese getting a steady feed of Ukrainians successfully resisting the Russians.
trollhattan
@squid696:
Ukraine would have benefited from having a small fleet of attack subs.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I’ll keep good thoughts!
Roger Moore
@Adam L Silverman:
I’m afraid that too many people in Israel put a silent “to us” after the “never again”. That’s the only way to explain what’s been happening in Palestine since forever.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: The reporting I saw indicated this was a new add on or something to get around sanctions. I only skimmed it. It was 5:30 AM…
Adam L Silverman
@Roger Moore: Imagine the visual of the Israeli Air Force providing close air support to protect Muslims in the Balkans in the 1990s.
Peale
Just a few questions Adam, since you’ve studied this more.
Why did Russia send their ground forces in so quickly? I’m comparing this to Iraq where the bombing seemed to go on for a few days before sending the ground forces over the border.
If the number of Russian deaths vs. Ukrainian is correct, that is much higher than I would have expected. Are the Russians like marching down the middle of the road around outside of their armored vehicles without body armor? 2,800 is really high.
Omnes Omnibus
As for why Putin hasn’t committed all the equipment one would expect, I wonder if everything shipped to the border was combat ready. Might some have been for show? A lot of people were were looking at photos of the armor and wondering how much was just out of a depot and not yet run in.
schrodingers_cat
@Adam L Silverman: I did see that tweet you are talking about.
dr. bloor
@realbtl: Check the prevailing wind patterns to see how that would turn out for him. He probably took Chernobyl to make sure the Ukrainians didn’t do it themselves.
Dan B
I saw some nighttime videos in Kyiv that were huge balls of flame falling into residential towers. They were bright golden. The towers they hit had multiple apartments on fire particularly the upper units and ground floor. It seemed like White Phosphorous but not as white a flame. Any idea what it might be?
Eolirin
@Adam L Silverman: I don’t understand how Israel constantly manages to forget all of the lessons our history has taught us about how the persecution of any marginalized group inevitably leads to the persecution of us.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
And while you are answering questions Adam, any thoughts on the stories that the Russian troops are running out of supplies? It does fit the narrative that Putin assumed this would be done in one day.
Miss Bianca
@Adam L Silverman: That’s interesting…
Sebastian
Where does Kaliningrad get its power from?
Peale
@schrodingers_cat: I had to look up Akhand Bharat. I figured you meant “they want to annex Kashmir”. I didn’t realize they wanted everything from Kabul to Yangoon, too. Cripes. They must sleep really well at night to dream such dreams.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Miss Bianca: Yes, not only does China get to sooth Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Philippines, but it also presents itself as good friend for all those Central Asian former Soviet Republics to have, now that Putin’s lost his mind. Putin really handed the game to China in Asia and probably doesn’t realize it yet.
schrodingers_cat
@Peale: It is ridiculous and not in any realm of the possible. But that is what they say they want.
topclimber
Everyone is concerned about Ukraine but I don’t buy the argument that if Putin succeeds here, he won’t stop until he is in Berlin.
Ukraine’s problem is that it is not a member of NATO. Almost every other country in Europe is. As such, they merit the full military support–directly–of all members.
Americans will not support US troops dying in Ukraine. I think they would support honoring a 75-year-old alliance that binds us by treaty to provide mutual defense.
Jay
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1
Orxy is tracking and compiling confirmed equipment losses by both sides.
Given their position as defenders, and RUAF superiority, the Ukrainian Military and Volunteer Forces are giving better than they are getting.
Reports Re being made that the Ukrainian military is blowing bridges and destroying road and rail links to Belarus and Russia.
Omnes Omnibus
@Peale: There really is a limited window of time that you can keep troops in a ready to go mode before you need to either go or stand down.
schrodingers_cat
@Adam L Silverman: It was some guy from Britain called Samuel Ramani.
AFAIK India has such accounts with Iran too, to get past US sanctions.
Peale
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Yep. I think we discussed this earlier that the problem with Chernobyl is the ground and any dust that gets created. So the Russians can keep it and walk around on their tiptoes. If they want to gather troops there as a staging, let them.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Peale: Oh, that would also would encourage the Chinese to object to Putin’s deadly crazy pants Ukrainian adventure, those are all Chinese allies.
trollhattan
An evaluation of Russian airpower as used in Syria that might shed some light on how they are conducing the air war above Ukraine. NB–rebel held Syrian territory had no antiaircraft capabilities; nevertheless, not everything Russia attempted was successful. (And wasn’t it “fun” when Turkey shot down one of their planes.)
delk
If you tolerate this…
trollhattan
Explains the sat photos from Belarus last week showing the troops there had set up a pontoon bridge. Practice.
Omnes Omnibus
@topclimber: I doubt that we will put official boots on the ground in Ukraine, but the danger of Russian aggression here is enough that I think we will do virtually everything but. It won’t be as fast as G&T or Adam want, but diplomacy is slow. Honestly, I am impressed by how quickly NATO and the EU are moving.
Jay
@dr. bloor:
one of the major transportation routes from Belarus to Kiev goes through Chernobyl and the exclusion zone.
Adam L Silverman
@Peale: Russia hasn’t fought a real state on state engagement in a very long time. Every place it has fought has been a lot irregular warfare or in places where the state was unable to defend itself like in eastern Georgia. Basically either irregular warfare or cake walks. That’s not the case this time.
Roger Moore
@Peale:
Russia has a different doctrine and different external circumstances. In Iraq, we knew we had as much time as we wanted to destroy their military by air before bringing in the ground forces, and we wanted to to it to keep our casualties as low as possible. We weren’t too worried about Iraqi leadership running and hiding, or at least we figured we couldn’t stop them even if we invaded by air immediately.
In contrast, Russia seems to be less worried about casualties, and they absolutely want the fight to be over as fast as possible so they can present it as a fait accompli. They also want to capture as many Ukrainian leaders as possible before they can flee or go to ground, because they know those leaders are likely to become a rallying point for the inevitable Ukrainian resistance. That all argues in favor of rushing in and destroying the Ukrainian forces on the ground rather than trying to pick them off by air and moving in at leisure.
Peale
@schrodingers_cat: This is why I would make a lousy leader. I’d look at those countries and my own country and go “Yeah, I’ve got enough problems. I’m good.”
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I think that is somewhere between very plausible and highly likely as an explanation.
trollhattan
@topclimber:
Any of the former Soviet republics would seem to be on Vlad’s very large don’t call it Christmas list, and if I were the Baltics I’d be seeing targets painted everywhere.
To your point, NATO will certainly not let them roll in and the kind of airpower they can deploy will make invasion unthinkable.
Adam L Silverman
I just de-floofed Rosie, the Floofarina, and there is now floof everywhere!
greenergood
Can’t ‘the West’/NATO/whoever impose no-fly zones over Ukraine now? There were no-fly zones over Bosnia-Herzegovina in the early 1990s, and Bosnia didn’t join the NATO ‘Parnership for Peace’ until 2007. Also, lots of not happy mothers-of-Russian-conscripts: https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/.premium.HIGHLIGHT-why-is-he-there-russian-mothers-say-soldiers-tricked-into-going-to-ukraine-1.10633865
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Maintenance is a bitch in the cold. Getting soldiers to do it and do it right requires good NCOs and junior officers. Not something the Russians are known for.
Adam L Silverman
@Dan B: Ukrainian air defense shot down either a missile or an attack drone.
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: Mom Sense knits, but not sure if she is into floof.
Adam L Silverman
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I haven’t seen that. I’ve seen interviews with some of the Russian Soldiers who’ve surrendered who said they did so because they were told it was an exercise not an invasion.
topclimber
@Roger Moore: Russia also has a backup option if it can’t rule Ukraine–namely, ruin it. They then retreat to the eastern part of the country and dare the world to kick it out, as they have done in Crimea. (Spoiler alert: no one will take that dare, militarily).
The Dangerman
It’s a shame that Ukraine doesn’t have submarines; that warship in the Snake Island incident badly needs to be sunk.
The disproportionate KIA is surprising. Does that explain why Putin offered to negotiate? That’s what I heard anyway. I could be wrong since it’s not in your update.
Could Putin, er al, be indicted for War Crimes in abstencia (sp?)? Sure, live out your days in Russia, but you don’t get to travel.
Jay
@trollhattan:
if you think that the conflict can be peacefully resolved and relations normalized, or the area defended,
you don’t destroy infrastructure.
Pretty sure the days of Nonna’s and Housewives commuting from the LPR and the DPR past half a dozen checkpoints, into Ukraine to pick up their pension checks, see a doctor, visit family, go shopping, are over.
dr. luba
@Dan B: I’ve heard from Ukrainian sources that Russia as threatening to use thermobaric weapons….which I know little about. People in Kyiv being told to shelter tonight. Putin is pissed off at the slow progress.
trollhattan
@Eolirin: Admit while reading Putin’s rants about “we were here first, the Rus, and Ukraine are occupying our native lands,” I reflected on Israel-Palestine and the counting of literal millennia to justify claims of who it “really belongs to.”
I expect legal action from Clovis Man at some point, declaring the Americas to be theirs.
Omnes Omnibus
@greenergood: Enforcing a no fly zone involves establishing air superiority. NATO can’t do that without direct confrontation with the Russians. At this point, everyone is trying to avoid that.
schrodingers_cat
@Peale: He is a lousy leader but a good showman and sadly for many that is enough.
matt
I mean, is Russia really losing this badly? Holy fucking shit!
Calouste
@Peale: 2,800 Russian soldiers killed in the first day would mean the invasion is pretty much a failure already. For every KIA you have to add (based on history) 2-3 wounded that can no longer fight, so that would be 9-10,000 Russian soldiers (6% of the total force of 150,000 – 170,000) out of action on day one. That’s not an attrition rate that is in any way sustainable, as they haven’t moved all troops into Ukraine yet, and the toughest urban fighting hasn’t really started. For another comparison, the Allies had about 2.5% KIA on D-Day, and they were storming a fortress.
The UK Ministry of Defense mentioned 450 Russians killed, which would be more sustainable for the Russians, but again, they can’t afford to be losing 2,000 casualties every day for a few weeks.
bjacques
@JPL: depends on what they tried. If they messed with routing on Kyiv’s backbone node, it hangs off Bucharest and Vienna, both in NATO countries. At least on Telia’s internet backbone it does.
Martin
Now that Putin is threatening Finland and Sweden, I don’t see how we avoid fighting this guy unless Ukraine manages to dig deep here.
And Ukraine seems to be doing a pretty good job of building a popular movement. There’s going to be a monument to the Snake Island guys some day. Not sure what Putin does with Kiev. I can’t imagine the public is going to tolerate a Putin lackey and I can’t imagine Putin can afford to be a permanent occupying force in a country that large.
Dan B
@Adam L Silverman: I thought I saw three but it was probably three different videos. Thanks for the explanation. Terrible for the residents.
trollhattan
@Jay:
Desperate days. I’m usually wrong on these things (and want to be this time) but expect a week from now the fate of Ukraine will be determined even if the fighting isn’t over.
germy
Dan B
@dr. luba: Thermobaric = War crime?
marcopolo
So a couple thoughts based on the stuff I’ve been reading over the past day and a half.
Just some random thoughts. My heart is with all the folks in Ukraine defending against Putin’s mad mob boss insanity. I really do see this as a make or break moment to defend western-style rule of law (yeah, I know there are lots of faults to our system but…) democratic governance against kleptocratic autocratic assaults.
Oh and Josh Marshall had a nice thread about Zelinskyy rising to the challenge of leadership (worth a read and I don’t think it is TPM members only):
Have a good Friday eve everyone
Edited: the latest is that there are negotiations for talks between Ukraine & RU to start over cease fire or something starting…I’d have to believe that means Putin isn’t seeing what he expected. Dunno what it means from Zelinskyy’s POV since I can’t imagine there being much room to negotiate on that end.
JoyceH
@Adam L Silverman:
I saw a video on Twitter that purported to be Ukrainian troops coming across some abandoned Russian trucks on the side of the road – reports are that Russians are deserting, in some unknown numbers. Hope that’s so.
And I recall a former Red Army officer who defected to the US and taught at one of the war colleges – I went to a talk he gave, and his contention was that the Red Army would fight like tigers to defend Mother Russia, but if sent on an offensive invasion into Europe would defect ‘in the millions’.
Adam L Silverman
@Calouste: It would be 2,800 over the first two days, but yep.
JPL
@Martin: The best possible outcome would be Putin accidentally falling out a ten-story window.
Adam L Silverman
@Calouste: Even if it is 450, that is a 4 to 1 ratio in favor of Ukraine on the first day.
Sloane Ranger
@Gin & Tonic: I hope that Adam is right and the Ukrainians are bleeding the Russians.
As far as Zelanski is concerned, being a leader who dies for their country sounds brave and romantic but if Ukraine is overrun someone with Democratic or constitutional legitimacy needs to speak for it and act as a focus for resistance. Those who came out of WWII with their reputations intact and even enhanced were those like King Haakon VII of Norway and De Gaulle who left their nations and came to London where they could lobby on their country’s behalf and give morale raising speeches over the radio. Those who stayed ended up either dead, puppets or degraded. This sends the message to their people that the country is weak and leaderless. If Zelansky wants to stay and die he owes it to Ukraine to ensure that a legitimate successor is somewhere safe so they can take over the reins from him.
Adam L Silverman
@Dan B: I’m pretty sure there were at least two different intercepts.
topclimber
@Martin: I would defer to Adam’s expertise here, but even if Russia gobbles up Ukraine quickly it will take a long time to digest. Let’s say they can spare their army from occupation duty within six months (hah!) and then execute a mobilization aimed at an entirely different theater of war in another six. That gives Finland and Sweden a year to apply of NATO membership, which the alliance would no doubt do on an expedited basis.
Calouste
@topclimber: Russia, as a state, has that backup option, but I don’t think Putin has. I think that if this war is a failure, Putin will be ousted. Of course, I have no idea what will happen then.
Yarrow
We may have more of this sort of thing to deal with.
Kalakal
@Dan B: If they were to use large scale ones on the entrances to the subway stations it would be horrendous. They’d be deliberately killing 1,000s of civilians sheltering there
Adam L Silverman
@marcopolo: Putin’s spokesperson called for talks between Putin and Zelenskyy in Minsk, Belarus, which is a non-starter because Zelenskyy would never get out alive. Five minutes later Putin was on TV delivering fresh threats and saying there would be and could be no negotiations with the “drug addled neo-NAZIs” running Ukraine. So there are not actual, serious calls for direct negotiations.
dr. bloor
@Martin: After browsing Finnish Twitter’s response this afternoon, I am pretty sure that telling a bunch of conscripts they’re going to Helsinki on an “exercise” would not end well.
Jay
@Dan B:
only if used deliberately against civilians targets.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Quite possibly the most brilliant sentence I’ve read in a very long time!
topclimber
@Calouste:It just struck me that Zelenskyy might have better odds of surviving the next few years that Putin does.
Jay
@marcopolo:
Russia always offers opportunities for meaningless talks as a stalling tactic.
trollhattan
@JPL: Make it twenty. One must be sure.
greenergood
@Yarrow: A slap is not as good as a good punch to the throat – London is pussyfooting around – the Tories have too many Russian donors to upset that putrid apple cart. London is the oligarchs’ featherbed, and Boris has no intention of turfing them out, except on a very superficial level .
Peale
Yeah. Their “meaningful” talks with the US was to reiterate their demands and say they weren’t negotiable.
Next up, they’ll say that they are removing troops because the excursion is over so everyone can put their guns down.
They think they are sneaky.
Calouste
@topclimber: Definitely if he survives the next week.
The Dangerman
I heard someplace (I’m mostly trying not to hear anything right now; I have some health issues, no not Covid, and I see the specialist at Loma Linda Monday, so I’m in the best hands possible)…
…that the Russian grunts were told this was all an exercise and were shocked it was going for real; seems to me that would lead to a lot of fragging. I have no idea what the history of such is like in the former Soviet Union (since I think this is Russia’s first real fight).
Yarrow
All strength be with Ukraine.
trollhattan
K Thug addresses seizing Russian plutocrat assets and sounds upbeat on the possibility.
More at Digby’s (so I don’t need to link to FTFNYT).
MisterForkbeard
@Gin & Tonic: I’m pretty sure Israel doesn’t want people knowing how good Iron Dome is at intercepting modern missiles instead of the general crap it normally gets now.
marcopolo
@Adam L Silverman: @Jay: I hear what you’re saying re Putin/RU putting out the “potential for talks” stuff as meaningless crap but I read a post at some point earlier that Macron had talked w/ Putin earlier today & when someone questioned why the fuck he would do that the reply was Zelenskyy had asked him to. Maybe it’s fog of war stuff but both sides can play the game & Zelenskyy has shown he’s a lot more savvy about this stuff than most folks expected.
Also, I should have added to my post above, is it me or is worldwide media coverage totally pro-Ukraine at this point? Not that it shouldn’t be but the stories that are coming out of the war zone (the woman confronting the troops, the island defenders, etc..) are awesomely anti-Russian. It’s almost as if aside from like Fucker Carlson & Drumpf and other American GOP neofascists all the propagandists on the Russian side are failing miserably, which is fantastic btw.
greenergood
@Adam L Silverman:
In other words, India’s Prime MInster Narendra Modi confirms that he continues to be a complete effing POS
.
JPL
@MisterForkbeard: I’m pretty sure that Israel will mourn if Zelensky is killed. fk
trollhattan
Please now to be deploying so-called shocked faces.
Kirk Spencer
@debbie:
Not Adam, but probably. Swift is a construct under laws and has to answer to those laws. It doesn’t like to kick out members, but it has in the past because the EU told them to do so.
The EU, mind. Not the US or UK or NATO or any specific nation. The fact that Germany and Italy appear on board is good, but there are 27 total member nations of which … I don’t recall if it’s a majority or a supermajority, but not unanimous consent is required to make that order.
Martin
@Dan B: I don’t think so. The US uses them. That’s what the MOAB is. I just hope the plan isn’t to use them against the subways.
topclimber
@Calouste:Kyiv is at least 1200 years old. Ya think maybe they built a few escape tunnels over the years?
zhena gogolia
@topclimber: I wish that were true.
Miss Bianca
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m with you. I’m fretting plenty – Jesus, how is anybody getting anything done but following the news? – but I’m far from convinced, two days in, that Ukraine is de facto doomed and NATO and the EU are sitting around and doing nothing. I feel like I’m seeing plenty of evidence to the contrary.
@Peale:
Not necessarily. You would, however, make a lousy dictator.
Peale
@trollhattan: UAE – I’d totes would have voted for this but, yah, know, we’re trying to get those Yemeni islands…
greenergood
@Omnes Omnibus:
Thanks for that, OO. I’m obviously not too clued up on the logistics of all this ..
Peale
@Miss Bianca: I’d be all in on the sashes and medals of honor and recognitions of valor for battles I was never a part of.
debbie
@Gin & Tonic:
I feel like 1939 would be more appropriate, but perhaps I’m too alarmist.
dr. bloor
@trollhattan: If the UN lets this hamstring them from any and all constructive measures to get Russia TFO of Ukraine, I’d very much like to see them GTFO of New York, and convert their lovely featherbeds into affordable housing.
MisterForkbeard
@matt: I don’t think Russia is “losing”. They’re making gains. It’s just much more punishing and slow than they expected.
If this continues I’d expect them to bowl over organized military resistance somewhat soon. Maybe tomorrow, if they take Kyiv. But resistance will go on for a really long time and do a lot of damage.
Peale
@marcopolo: Yeah. On LGM we’re getting a lot of pro-Russian celebrations of the decisive victory.
I was actually surprised to see that Belgrade had lit up its capital in Ukrainian flag colors. I would have thought that if any of the Balkan states would go in for Russia, it would be that country.
zhena gogolia
We had a webinar today with some Ukrainian students. They were unbelievably brave and inspiring and PISSED OFF — mainly at Russia, but at the West too (although much less so than at Russia, sorry, Chuckles Todd).
Miss Bianca
@Adam L Silverman:
What the ever-loving fuck. I thought I was beyond being shocked by any Russian conduct at this point, but you just managed to shock me, if that’s true.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: I don’t see any point in negotiating with Putin. He’s lied at every turn. Interfere with his ‘peacekeeping mission’ and he’ll nuke you. He’s threatening to invade two EU nations if they join NATO, even though his entire pretense here was to protect breakaway republics.
This seems like very 1938 stuff, just moving at a faster pace.
debbie
@marcopolo:
Last night, Macron accused Putin of “duplicity” based on their meetings last week. I guess his feelings were hurt, but that passed pretty quickly.
Omnes Omnibus
@MisterForkbeard: With something like this, winning too slowly is tantamount to losing.
Yarrow
@greenergood: No disagreement here. Still glad to see increasing sanctions.
I’m well aware of all the Russian money in London and the Tory party. If you have several hours, take a look at this very long Twitter thread (keep reloading for more tweets). Lots of info on Boris Johnson’s long relationship with Russia, Johnson’s various wives and girlfriends and their connections to Russia, relationship to Epstein, sex trafficking, money laundering, etc. With photos and evidence. It’s been going on a long time.
First two tweets. There’s so much more.
zhena gogolia
@Peale:
Really?
debbie
@trollhattan:
And is why Russia should be expelled from the UN entirely.
Dan B
@Adam L Silverman: Great ! Two are better than one. The narrator thought it was an airplane shot down but it seemed to be a ball of fire with no remaining aerodynamics, descending slowly.
Dan B
@Kalakal: Memories of Dresden. Slaughterhouse five.
VeniceRiley
All kinds of WTF in Black Sea. Who is firing, and what is the cargo and where was it destined?
https://splash247.com/two-more-ships-hit-in-the-black-sea/
Bill Arnold
When younger I had constant recurring dreams of thermonuclear war. Detailed, and since I had done some small background research (pre-internet), reasonably realistic. To this day, whenever entering a house or building far enough outside a guaranteed target, I note, silently, the strongest parts of the building, and where an improvised fallout shelter could be constructed.
Humans were lucky, very lucky, during the cold war, and continue to be lucky to avoid thermonuclear war.
Do the math; any actions that significantly increase the odds of thermonuclear war are killing 10s (or 100s, or more) of millions of humans weighted-by-likelyhood-averaged across possible future timelines. This includes Putin’s present actions, to be clear. And if he does try to start a thermonuclear war (and is not stopped by his military), the survivors (after >1/2 the world’s population starves to death) will hunt and kill any remaining Russians for the next 100 years. These weapons are destructive beyond normal human empathy. (And some of the people involved don’t or can’t do empathy.)
(On another note, Putin’s look on his face when he talked about genocide suggests that he has some serious personal guilt and is projecting. Not sure about this though. )
Omnes Omnibus
POL supply issues? https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1497333031924862979?s=21
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: I was trying to let you and everyone else know that all of these posts could be easily accessed by clicking the “Ukraine” link in the sidebar.
Miss Bianca
@trollhattan: I am starting to warm to this idea I heard bruited the other day, of just declaring that the current Russia isn’t actually the heir to the USSR and using that excuse to throw them off the Security Council permanently.
topclimber
@VeniceRiley: Earlier a Turkish owned freighter was attacked, presumably by Russians. Not a good move when the Turks are supposedly considering Ukraine’s request to block Russian transit of the strait of Istanbul (aka Bosporus).
debbie
@Miss Bianca:
I think that’s why that Russian soldier didn’t escalate when the woman approached him and repeatedly asked him to put sunflower seeds in his pockets so that his body could serve as fertilizer for the seeds.
Jay
@dr. bloor:
the UN and the UNSC are two different organizations.
One is a Council comprised of the winners of WWII with permanent seats and veto’s, with other elected members, that can enact Resolutions and enforce them with military and economic power.
The other is a Global Parliament with out military or economic power.
The UNSC can’t do anything other than the symbolic over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine due to Russia’s veto, just like the UNSC can’t do anything about the Israeli Palestinian conflict because of the US veto.
Once again, it demonstrates that there should be no Permanent seats on the UNSC, no veto power and a mechanism for the removal or recusal of a first, second or third party to the conflict in question.
Miss Bianca
@Peale:
Oh, that! Well, who wouldn’t?
Miss Bianca
@Omnes Omnibus:
Thank you for that. I need to be reminded of that from time to time.
laura
Man, I miss Steve Gilliard right now.
Bill Arnold
@realbtl:
The only way that Chernobyl would be a threat (note all the prompt decay radioactives are gone) would be if it were dispersed with a thermonuclear device. Then the mushroom cloud/plume would probably blow East.
This seems unlikely. And if anyone wanted to do it and had a spare thermonuclear device, they similarly vaporize and disperse the core of any nuclear reactor. This is what is known as a “worse case accident”.
dr. bloor
@Jay:
Thanks for the clarity, but we’ll at least take their real estate back. What it actually seems to demonstrate is that the UNSC’s existence is pointless, no matter how you choose to define its membership or eligibility for special status. If you’re handcuffed from taking constructive action in a situation as blatantly immoral and illegal as this one, just go home.
Dan B
@Jay: Begs the question if there are military targets that are not near suburban Kyiv? Otherwise thermobaric weapons would kill our injure civilians. Geography details I don’t have.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus:
I don’t quite understand what that means.
zhena gogolia
@Miss Bianca: It’s like the platinum coin.
Or like Russia suddenly deciding that Ukraine is no longer a sovereign nation when it’s been one since 1991.
JPL
@laura: Definitely.
Jay
@debbie:
in the transcript of the conversation, he very clearly say’s “it’s an exercise”,
Cacti
Anonymous has also declared cyber war against the Putin regime, and has been taking Russian government and propaganda sites offline as often as possible in the past 48 hours.
Dan B
@Martin: As I recall people were suffocated when the Dresden firestorm sucked all that air out of the shelters except where Vonnegut was locked in an airtight storage unit (walk in refrigerator?).
Adam L Silverman
@WaterGirl: Very good. I’m tracking.
Martin
@Miss Bianca: One of my professional flaws is that I have no personal tolerance for theater on stuff like this. If the goal is to prevent a Russian takeover of Ukraine, then the actions you take need to have some realistic chance to achieve that goal.
Sanctions don’t. That’s not to say they shouldn’t be done, but they’re being done toward some different goal. I mean, punishing Putin financially is fine, but it’s small comfort when your country is overthrown and your home destroyed and family killed.
sab
@JPL: I heard on NPR today that the Russian hacking cyber attacks had already spilled over to some Latvian banks. Latvia is in NATO. Of course, these were criminal hackers not officially part of the government.
VOR
Agree. There is a chart at CNN comparing the size of the Russian and Ukraine military. Russia has 5x the number of armored vehicles. 10x or more the number of airplanes. 20x number of helicopters. Active army is 5x the size. Not my area, but I bet a lot of Ukraine’s gear is ex-Soviet so not up to date. On paper it’s a mis-match.
Jay
@dr. bloor:
the UNSC occupies very little physical space in the UN Building, the rest of the buildings occupants do good work.
If you use the Vancouver Micro model of 450sq feet for self contained apartments, you could probably fit 170 homeless into the space the UNSC occupies.
If the goal is to deal with homelessness, one would be far better converting all the headspace the UNSC/UN occupies in Wingnut heads into small apartments.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Things that have been sitting in storage for a long time. The need oil changes, glow plug replacement, storage grease cleaned off, every joint and moving part cleaned and regressed, and some running up and down roads to make sure everything works right. Tanks and artillery would need to test their sights. They would want to drill on these pieces of equipment to find out their individual quirks. And so on….
Rob
Adam, thank you for this post. Your post and some of the comments have made me (and my wife) more optimistic about the situation.
(Now back to lurking)
debbie
@sab:
I also heard it reported that Russia would switch to bitcoin to counter any sanctions. Too much to ask for bitcoin to tank?
Roger Moore
@Calouste:
I don’t know how much the Russian state, as currently constituted, can survive Putin being ousted, at least if it’s a response to military failure. If it were “just” a coup, his successor could hope to survive by seizing control before anyone had a chance to react. But military failure would mean angry people and a military that would be severely weakened as an internal support for the government. That could get very messy very fast.
Uncle Cosmo
@Dan B: As I recall, Vonnegut with other POWs (mostly taken like him during the Bulge) had been put to work in the slaughterhouses located north of the town center, while the bombing was concentrated there and at the railyards to the south. They were only sent into the area after the firestorm abated. But I could be wrong.
Sebastian
My Russian/Ukrainian is choppy but he is saying something along the lines “Look at them burned to a crisp, the whole convoy was smashed. Here is one, the second, three, there is the fourth, … you are coming onto our land … you are cursed/damned”
Dan B
@Rob: Dinto. Great post by Adam and comments by all! I’m promoting this heavy to friends.
From the intertubes it seemed like was toast tonight. Could happen but so could many other things.
Jay
@Dan B:
the Ukrainians have vowed and organized to defend Kiev.
Thermobarics are considered to be an “indiscriminate” weapon,
so firing a TOS down a defended street would be considered a war crime, but firing a RGM at a sandbagged bunker or defended building space would not.
the difference is that the TOS was developed for mine clearing operations, but has been used to kill all the occupants of a section of street, both combatants and sheltering civillians, where the RGM was designed to take out military bunkers.
Sebastian
@Roger Moore:
I think the Russian military might be a paper tiger, hollowed out by decades of Kleptocracy, a Potemkin Village if you will.
What we are seeing now might very well be a monumental geopolitical emperor has no clothes scenario. I don’t even want to pretend to know what the outcome will be.
sab
@realbtl: Aren’t the prevailing winds from the west, like in the rest of the world. Russia is downwind from there. But Putin doesn’t care about his own people either.
Dan B
@Uncle Cosmo: I think you’re correct and it may have been one prisoner in the city who survived.
matt
@VOR: do you think Putin has the option to commit a much larger force than the 200,000 already committed for this one project? I don’t see how that counts as a victory if Russia has to send its whole army to conquer Ukraine. I saw an estimate online that there are 200-250,000 regular military and 900,000 reserves in Ukraine. it would have to be 4-1 or 8-1 the OTHER way for that to work out as a numbers game. I don’t see an Iraq-War like qualitative disparity at play here, that’s for sure.
SiubhanDuinne
@JPL:
I would take that floof, along with dryer lint and my own hair combings, and put it out for birds to use as they build their nests.
Ken
@zhena gogolia: I could maybe believe it of the comments, but not of their front-pagers. Though it’s been five years since I read LGM (they changed the commenting system, the barbarians).
Come to think, have we had any trolls in today’s Ukraine threads? I may have missed them, I’m skimming to catch up.
dr. bloor
@Jay: Just so you know, you are absolutely wrecking my fucking evening with your rationality.
Miss Bianca
@Martin: I’m not sure I consider sanctions mere “theater”. I’m also impatient, to use your term, with people who say, “DO SOMETHING – just not the thing you’re doing.” I mean, what do you think we should – or could – be doing instead? That’s within the realm of current legal and political possibilities, that is?
MisterDancer
Flattened Twitter thread, originally found at https://twitter.com/RVAwonk/status/1497355411506163715:
zhena gogolia
@Ken: I haven’t seen any.
dr. bloor
@debbie: I’d much rather read a story on Bitcoin spiking followed by a second story about a 14 year old in Reykjavik or Bangkok cleaning out Putin’s virtual wallet.
Hellbastard
I’ve always stood up for the UN has a noble effort despite its flaws but after today’s vote I have zero respect for it as an institution. Russia getting a veto? India, China, and UAE can’t be bothered to take a clear position? Utterly useless.
Sebastian
@VeniceRiley:
The Russians being completely incompetent, that’s who. Imagine the US Navy after 30 years of Trumpist rule.
topclimber
@VOR: This is a crap chart because it compares Russia’s total military to Ukraine’s. What is important is the number of troops in Ukraine itself.
The Russians surely have a huge advantage in air power, tanks and other military transport, but in terms of personnel…not so much. Add in the Ukrainian advantage of being on defense, particularly in a city fighting block to block, and they might well be on the short end of the stick.
Which is not to say they can’t kill a lot of people and wreck a lot of real estate. But if the Ukrainians are willing to pay the price, they can hand Putin the type of Pyrrhic victory that might well cost him his job. Or, as they say in the Kremlin, let him earn his wings flying out a window.
Not rooting for us fighting the Russians to the last Ukrainian, but that’s my take.
Cacti
@Hellbastard: Russia and China have the ability to gum up anything the UN Security Council does. NATO is going to have to solve this or no one will.
Bill Arnold
@trollhattan:
Neanderthals are the rightful heirs of most of Europe and some of Russia. There are no known Neanderthal remnant populations, so those humans with the highest Neanderscores (a measure of the percentage of Neanderthal DNA) could be allowed to rule.
dr. bloor
@Hellbastard: Relax. As it turns out, the UNSC and the UN have never met, and the former occupies a very small amount of space.
Cacti
@topclimber: Ukraine has also essentially conscripted every able bodied male age 18-60 now that they’re under siege.
Skepticat
He’s beginning to sound as though he’s decompensating as much as Chump has too. They both need to be in padded rooms.
Dan B
@dr. bloor: Very nice! Spoken in the manner of 14 year old Montgomery Burns…
Cacti
I hope that whenever my time comes, my final words are something as memorable as “Russian warship, go fuck yourself!”
VOR
@matt: Agree. Russia has other things going on and can’t commit 100% of it’s forces. They need people to watch the borders in other places. My layman’s guess is Putin was going for a quick decapitation and surrender, not an extended struggle.
Brit in Chicago
@Sloane Ranger: And remember Churchill’s speech: “…even if…this island were to fall, still the British Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle until, in the fullness of time, the New World shall step in, to the rescue and the liberation of the old.” (quoted from memory, but close, I think). I agree with almost nothing else that Churchill stood for, but he was someone who understood that being (successfully) invaded does not mean that it’s all over. And the example of De Gaulle is good too.
Sebastian
@Omnes Omnibus:
Compared to a Merkava, Russian tanks drive like a Ferrari. They also gulp fuel like one.
I am -this- close to putting down money that this is a Trumpian shitshow level of failure. If this keeps going on at this pace for another week … I wouldn’t rule out withdrawal or surrender of large parts of RU forces.
Peale
@zhena gogolia: from trolls, not the posters.
eta: lol, no. Cheryl Rofer has not ripped of a mask and doing a cackling happy dance about Putin’s victory over the soy boy cucks. It’s not April 1 yet.
Dan B
@Skepticat: Together?? Lovely!!
Alone Together to the End of Time.
sab
@debbie: Last night threads
Ladt night threads said SWIFT is chartered in Belgium and owned by member banks. Presumably EU can compel them to do stuff, since Belgium is in EU. US cannot, nor can Boris Johnson since Brexit. So his blathering about SWIFT is his usual BS.
I believe Biden’s people when they say that US sanctions are as effective as SWIFT cut-off. Not as symbolic, but as effective.
Martin
@Omnes Omnibus: The theory that the soldiers sold their diesel to buy booze is <chefs kiss>.
VOR
@Cacti: From the movie Patton, where General McAuliffe at Bastogne responded to a German surrender demand with “Nuts”. Patton says “A man that eloquent has to be saved”.
Sloane Ranger
@Miss Bianca: It’s pretty much par for the course as far as Russia is concerned. During the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 Red Army soldiers were told that they were liberating the country from evil Western capitalists and their quisling supporters and would would be greeted as saviours by the Czech people. The soldiers were shocked to discover the truth.
Eolirin
@Cacti: And to be fair, so do we. The UNSC was deliberately designed to be unable to be used to constrain the interests of the major players. It’s the only way they’d agree to it.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Got it. Like my brakes rusted out after the first year of the pandemic because I was driving so little. Only x1000.
germy
U.S. Shocked Russia Would Invade Another Country After Seeing How Badly America’s Recent Invasions Went (the Onion)
edited because the long link was breaking the margins on phones.
Jay
@dr. bloor:
have another drink, go out onto the porch/back deck/balcony and scream at the stars.
A lot of the institutions and structures built after WWII as we know, arn’t up to the tasks of the modern world, (eg. climate Change), but can’t be reformed.
Miss Bianca
@Cacti: On that sentiment we can agree.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
Back in Cold War days, I used to sometimes read threat estimates of the capabilities and state of readiness of various Soviet bases.
Years later, I worked with someone whose husband had first-hand knowledge of those capabilities and state of readiness.
They were not the same. The reality was, let us say, somewhat short of the estimate.
Omnes Omnibus
@Sebastian: I am not that sanguine, but the Ukrainians are doing what they need to do right now, and the Russians are not impressing me with heir conduct of armored warfare. I am worried that they may resort to violent excess in order to compensate.
lowtechcyclist
“Reasonably concluded” – what exactly does this mean?
To quote Dick Cheney, “If there’s a 1% chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al-Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response. It’s not about our analysis … It’s about our response.”
That was bullshit then, because “helping [a non-territorial org] build or develop a nuclear weapon” (a) is extremely difficult, given the stuff you need to build one, and (b) there’s a time gap between starting to build one, and actually having a nuke.
But Russia has nukes. No lag time to develop or build, no question of having the resources. It has the fucking nukes. Thousands of them, IIRC.
So here, the 1% doctrine seems to make total sense. If there’s a 1% chance we’re wrong about that threat being a bluff, then that’s not a chance I’m willing to take. One global thermonuclear war is one too many.
Mike S (Now with a Democratic Congressperson!)
@debbie: Interesting discussion on twitter. Should Russia have automatically inherited the USSR’s permanent seat on the security council? China taking over the “China seat” seat was done by action of the General assembly. No such thing was done for the USSR to Russia transfer.
I say their veto is illegitimate! Throw ’em out!
Jay
@Hellbastard:
First off, UNSC, not the UN,
second, Russia like the US has always had a veto, along with China, Britain and France, and like everybody else has used their veto’s for venal and immoral reasons.
dr. bloor
It’s over. Putin will be decorating a lamp post by dawn.
Roger Moore
@debbie:
Bitcoin won’t do much. There are only two ways to get Bitcoin: trade and mining. Trade won’t help, because Russia would need to continue to find people willing to sell their Bitcoin for rubles. If they could find people interested in rubles, they don’t need Bitcoin to make the transaction work. Mining is very limited. There are only about 900 Bitcoin mined per day, and that rate is fixed by the nature of Bitcoin. At the current exchange rate of about $40,000 per Bitcoin, that would mean about $36 million/day or about $13 billion/year, assuming the Russians could somehow manage to completely take over all Bitcoin mining. That might be helpful, but it’s not enough to keep the Russian economy afloat.
Miss Bianca
@dr. bloor: OK, *that* made me lol. Well done, you! I think that may have been my first laugh of the day.
Kalakal
@Omnes Omnibus: That’s pretty much my feelings at the moment
Ksmiami
@topclimber: folly to those who mess with the Turks…
sab
@Adam L Silverman: China needs to think seriously about Xi while they still have a party to control him.
.After Mao they used to be run by term-limited technocrats. Also too, they were Han to the outside world but diverse internally. Xi has changed all that. No term limits. Internal ethnic cleansing of Uighurs, and all the non-Mandarin dialects across the country.
He is sane now, but who knows twenty years from now?
The Pale Scot
@Adam L Silverman:
Over at Richard North’s place he has been getting in the weeds with the type/models and the condition of the various vehicles saying they weren’t current generation and didn’t have all the doohickeys they could have attached for them to be an invasion force. Since these were Russian photos my mind had been going yeh but…
debbie
@Jay:
Intentional dissemblance. Exercises aren’t carried out in unallied countries.
MomSense
If you have an instagram account, I recommend following @tribal.cat
Her name is Vitalik Denys. She is a Ukranian photographer and artist. She has become a force of nature during this crisis. She posts footage of what is happening in Kyiv and people all over the country are sending her messages and footage. I am in awe of her bravery.
sab
@laura: We all miss Steve Gilliard.
Geminid
The Times of Israel has been following tbese events fairly closely, and put up a story three hours ago titled, “U.S. officials say Russian forces lose momentum in face of stiff Ukrainian resistance.”
Gvg
@Martin: Sanctions are not theater. They aren’t a total solution or even a big part of one but you have to have them, because you can’t allow active enemies to be free to buy resupply for war from all the companies in your territory. Once the shooting starts, you have to cut them off. You also have to tell all the big and small companies what the rules are and who they aren’t allowed to sell to anymore.
now most ordinary people don’t want horrible things to happen and can’t help hoping for some non drastic sacrifice solution, so currently there are some….over optimistic dreams about what sanctions can do. They still have to be imposed. It takes time to set them up though, multiple Allies have to plan it out and agree. They can’t work unless all the Allies agree, otherwise there is a hole in the blockade.
Spanky
@dr. bloor: A low blow.
Uncle Cosmo
Hell, the Ukrainian forces ought to be blasting loudspeakers at the Rooskies telling them if they lay down their weapons and come on over they’ll get a free trip to Prague, a week in a nice hotel, and a preloaded credit card for as much Czech beer as they can handle. (Think of the German offensives of 1918 that faltered and foundered when their famished troops overran the Allied supply dumps and gorged themselves on the cornucopia of food and drink.)
trollhattan
Just got a lengthy email from work citing the increasing likelihood of cyberthreats from Russia, and a bunch of steps to follow. Doubt this has been sent for no reason.
trollhattan
@Uncle Cosmo:
“Beer, or Nickelback, your choice, komrades.” [hoist enormous speakers]
Skepticat
I too have heard that and am much more than warm to the idea. Puhleeeeze let it be true and possible.
trollhattan
@sab: Was appalled the Chinese felt emboldened enough to threaten the athletes before the Olympics. Who the hell does that? Do not see them improving with time.
Skepticat
They most certainly deserve one another, though lovely isn’t actually the word that first comes to mind associated with either or both.
Roger Moore
@Geminid:
That’s true, but they don’t have far to go to reach some critical targets. Kyiv is quite close to the Belarusian border.
MomSense
@Roger Moore:
Same. I cry every time I think about what he is facing. The NYT video of his message to his people was the most inspiring thing I have seen.
MomSense
@trollhattan:
I refuse to this day to use the word “upcoming”. It was a Nixon creation intended to create positive feelings. It’s a bullshit Orwellian word.
sab
@trollhattan: My sister’s family is half Mayflower Republicans and half (very talented) Chinese immigrants.
The Chinese are here because their homecountry was so scary. They loved China deeply, but their survival was an issue.
Autocrats fuck up everything. Especially their own cultures. Even if their own wife is a traditional music star.
Jay
@debbie:
not the first time Russian soldiers have been sent on “an exercise” only to find themselves in a combat zone in a foreign country.
Russian Command and Control seems to be:
-drive to these GLONASS coordinates, set up a perimeter.
One would suspect that if you tell the rank and file the actual mission, they won’t go.
Jinchi
Those numbers seem huge to me, especially for the Ukrainians to know them this quickly in the engagement. How solid do we think these numbers are?
CROAKER
@JoyceH: No and should never … this isn’t some bullshit drama made up by a dipshit
CROAKER
@realbtl: dupa …use some of your capacity for thought
CROAKER
@squid696: so what airfield or ground crew will support?
Timill
@Skepticat: That’s silly. Clearly Ukraine is the ancestor country of the USSR and should inherit the seat…
CROAKER
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: war is fought by logistics … not generals or tiny eyed peasants
CROAKER
@topclimber: he won’t and that is silly…just stop
CROAKER
@greenergood: no they can’t move along with your nonsense
CROAKER
@The Dangerman: he will die in Russia and it will be unfortunate
CROAKER
@JoyceH: yes and they did …
Kent
Sweden doesn’t actually need to join NATO, only Finland. Look at a map and explain how Russia invades Sweden without passing through Finland.
And the Finns are WAY more badass anyway.
Amir Khalid
@Skepticat:
I’m rather sceptical about this line of argument, whether it would really work. For three decades now, the UN has been treating the new Russia as the rightful heir to the USSR’s membership in the UN and UN Security Council. That’s a lot of precedent to be heaving out the window.
And if the UN Security Council did decide that Russia’s three decades as a member was illegitimate, would every vote Russia had cast in that time also be illegitimate; if so how would the UN Security Council address the consequences of those votes?
CROAKER
@Peale: must be reading something else not seeing that … nice job
CROAKER
@zhena gogolia: no its not true … on jest dupkien
CROAKER
@Peale: dude go away
Medicine Man
@Adam L Silverman
Regarding Putin seemingly under-committing: Could it be simple arrogance? His thinking seems pretty siloed right now.
Greenergood
@Yarrow: thanks – had a quick look but will pay more attention on Saturday morning. Boris Flubadub has a very murky backstory …
terry chay
@Adam L Silverman: Putin straight up lied to the Chinese and said he was never going to invade. Chinese got caught with their pants down allying themselves with Russia right at the start of the Winter Games. Lol.
Sebastian
@Uncle Cosmo:
Dude, the other day I was posting something along these lines although, having lived in Prague for a while, I like your idea better. I am not sure the hookers in Prague, world class professional as they might be, can handle 100,000 horny Russians.
I was thinking along the lines of “green card and $100,000”. That’d be $20bn and would fuck Russia forever.