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You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Late Night Open Thread: What of the Minions?

Late Night Open Thread: What of the Minions?

by Anne Laurie|  February 27, 20221:32 am| 58 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Russia, War in Ukraine

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I honestly wonder if Putin’s coterie could even conceive of ousting him. https://t.co/owJm9mq7Ty

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) February 27, 2022

A Boss like Putin, one does not simply oust. However, when in the course of mob-related events, a Boss should happen to become more of a liability than an asset… said Boss tends to have a shorter shelf life than the latest TikTok dance craze.

Slowly, and then all at once:

entirely a theory without proof but I have a suspicion russia’s propaganda network collapsing on itself almost overnight has a lot to do with everyone suddenly not getting paid

— kilgore trout, death to putiner (@KT_So_It_Goes) February 27, 2022

yeah the events themselves ABSOLUTELY have an awful lot to do with it but the entire operation just vanished almost instantaneously

anyway I want to be perfectly clear about this next part, I’m not an expert on this, and the experts have their facts correct. what I’m describing here is just guesses based off macro systems analysis and not number crunching. that said

I’ve read all the analyses that russia has enough independent side systems & cash reserves & alt-revenue to survive years with harsh sanctions. they all make sense. those analyses are *correct*. but I kinda think they miss a big piece of how systems actually work in meatspace

what would happen in meatspace with those cash reserves & side systems is: they will get heavily, heavily skimmed at each level by the entities moving the cash, because that’s how they operate now. they won’t just *stop* because they enter austerity

and level by level, when you start skimming heavily off a very fixed resource, the cash tumbling down to the next floor is reduced, probably at an even higher percentage due to panic skimming. the burn rate goes way up. so there’s less cash to begin with & it vanishes faster

when I read “they can last years” I keep thinking “yeah but can they?” because how long does it really take before cash stops moving to the most important low level: people who *actually do shit*? is it really years?

maybe it is! but rationally squinting at a kleptocracy entering austerity with a panic mentality…I don’t agree. i think it might only be weeks. no I can’t show my math, there is none. it’s just a hmmm are we sure they’re gonna be sure to pay the levels that keep society running?

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Reader Interactions

58Comments

  1. 1.

    Soonergrunt

    February 27, 2022 at 2:21 am

    Sooner or later the people who carry the guns and keep the others in line won’t get their paycheck. Then it gets ugly, fast. Especially if the regime leaders have nowhere to escape to.

  2. 2.

    Jinchi

    February 27, 2022 at 2:26 am

    Serious question. How long does it take a soldier in the field in hostile territory to realize he’s no longer getting paid?

  3. 3.

    RaflW

    February 27, 2022 at 2:30 am

    I guess I don’t know what Kilgore Trout is saying in the first tweet? What propaganda collapse did I miss?

  4. 4.

    Curtis

    February 27, 2022 at 2:33 am

    https://twitter.com/r_netsec/status/1497797398898176000

    “Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov said negotiations can begin once Russia “restores democratic order” in Ukraine. As Russian troops neared Kyiv, Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko was asked to respond.”

    Seems like a reasonable response to me.

  5. 5.

    trollhattan

    February 27, 2022 at 2:39 am

    @RaflW: 
    Read the Kremlin website and others were down for hours today. Maybe that?

  6. 6.

    Betsy

    February 27, 2022 at 2:46 am

    @RaflW: 

    From taking a look at the twitter feed and its responses, it seems there is less activity from the troll farms in Macedonia and elsewhere, perhaps.

    Also, Tulsi Gabbard is now tweeting saying that “Russia has made its point” and should back down. I guess her paycheck bounced, the little traitorous shill.

  7. 7.

    eclare

    February 27, 2022 at 2:48 am

    @Curtis:   Perfect.  No mixed message there.

  8. 8.

    Sebastian

    February 27, 2022 at 2:49 am

    Tulsi Gabbard changed her tune 30 minutes after the SWIFT announcement.

  9. 9.

    Sebastian

    February 27, 2022 at 2:49 am

    @Betsy:

    you beat me to the punch

  10. 10.

    Sebastian

    February 27, 2022 at 2:54 am

    @Jinchi:

    They don’t get paid really. Also, in Russia or anywhere in Eastern Europe, people often went for years without pay. Crazy, right? You were accruing retirement years and you had healthcare etc. and people just got by.

    That getting paid thing is more a Western thing. There is A LOT of bartering going on, mostly stuff that’s not nailed down. Like the diesel you are supposed to put in the tanks. You trade it for cash or booze and you and your buddies get wasted while sitting and waiting doing nothing for 60 days.

  11. 11.

    Yutsano

    February 27, 2022 at 2:59 am

    @Betsy: ​ As I observed on Twitter, methinks the lady doth protest way too much.

  12. 12.

    trollhattan

    February 27, 2022 at 3:03 am

    @Betsy: I recall furrow queen Susan Collins opining Trump had “learned his lesson” after impeachment #1. Vlad “made his point” is something like that.

  13. 13.

    David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch

    February 27, 2022 at 3:09 am

  14. 14.

    eclare

    February 27, 2022 at 3:16 am

    Ukrainians in French Foreign Legion will be allowed to go to Ukraine, according to NEXTA twitter.

  15. 15.

    Calouste

    February 27, 2022 at 3:25 am

    @Jinchi: He most likely won’t realize he doesn’t get paid until he gets back home. But he realizes he doesn’t get fed well three times a day.

  16. 16.

    ColoradoGuy

    February 27, 2022 at 3:29 am

    Slowly, then all at once.

    When the oligarchs abandon VVP, it’s all over.

  17. 17.

    mrmoshpotato

    February 27, 2022 at 3:30 am

    What of the Minions?

    Stuff them all in the crust!

    Oh, wrong Minions.  And, well, nevermind.

  18. 18.

    Sebastian

    February 27, 2022 at 3:36 am

    Russians are ready to talk. Glorious invasion for glory of kleptocracy not going so well, Vlad?

    ⚡️ Zelensky says Ukraine is ready for talks with Russia, but only in a country "from which missiles aren't flying," rejecting the idea of meeting in Belarus.Earlier today, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Russian delegation arrived in Minsk for talks with Ukraine.— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022

  19. 19.

    opiejeanne

    February 27, 2022 at 3:38 am

    @Calouste: They’re already not getting fed very well, if at all. There are tales of Russian soldiers going door to door in search of food and fuel for their vehicles. There is advice to give them a jerry can to which you’ve added a bit of sugar.

  20. 20.

    eclare

    February 27, 2022 at 3:40 am

    @opiejeanne:  Good advice.

  21. 21.

    opiejeanne

    February 27, 2022 at 3:41 am

    @Sebastian: Are the Russians going to offer a Ransom of Red Chief  deal? Please stop hurting our soldiers and breaking our war toys? We’ll pay you if you let us go home now.

  22. 22.

    opiejeanne

    February 27, 2022 at 3:46 am

    @eclare: I’ve seen amazing threads of advice on Twitter today, including a fairly detailed one from a man who teaches at the War College, on how to slow them down in an urban setting, how to harass them while stressing not getting yourself killed. He emphasizes that you have to stay alive

    Today I learned that a smaller bottle with a longish neck is best for throwing, if you’re making Molotov cocktails. Easier to throw with accuracy, but drop them from the third floor of a building if you can. .

  23. 23.

    mrmoshpotato

    February 27, 2022 at 3:46 am

    @Sebastian:

    Tulsi Gabbard changed her tune 30 minutes after the SWIFT announcement. 

    But she can still go fuck herself like that Russian warship.  The traitorous shitstain.

  24. 24.

    Sebastian

    February 27, 2022 at 3:48 am

    @opiejeanne:

    I am not sure they have a plan. Probably want to play for time while they figure something out. The squeeze is on hard.

  25. 25.

    Sebastian

    February 27, 2022 at 3:52 am

    @opiejeanne:

    Yes, the citizen of Kyiv mastered that. Also, add styrofoam to the gasoline so it becomes a sticky mess like napalm.

    They have “cocktail parties” where they fabricate them and then set up so called “refreshment center” at every street corner.

    The main brewery in Lviv has switched to making molotov cocktails. They even have a brandnew label just for the occasion. “We’ll brew beer later”

     

    ⚡️Lviv-based Pravda brewery switches to making Molotov cocktails.The brewery announced the plans after Ukraine’s Defense Ministry instructed civilians to make Molotov cocktails to resist invading Russian forces.— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 26, 2022

  26. 26.

    eclare

    February 27, 2022 at 3:53 am

    @opiejeanne:  I saw that thread too.

  27. 27.

    Sebastian

    February 27, 2022 at 3:54 am

    @mrmoshpotato: 

    Man, it’s like someone flipped the light switch on and all the cockroaches are scrambling for the exit.

  28. 28.

    NotMax

    February 27, 2022 at 4:13 am

    Tried to wag the bear and instead screwed the pooch.

    //

  29. 29.

    Morzer

    February 27, 2022 at 4:17 am

    @NotMax: In Russia, pooch(in) screw you.

  30. 30.

    Mallard Filmore

    February 27, 2022 at 4:45 am

    Over at Democratic Underground there is a posting with the title “Russian troops dumping fuel…”

    https://democraticunderground.com/100216408541

    The contents of the post is only a link: https://twitter.com/fatimatlis/status/1497806778993631232

    I do not know how to properly follow twitters, so scroll up one tweet to begin, and also follow the “Show this thread”.

    Is it really unravelling this fast? Are we only kidding ourselves (with too much optimism)?

  31. 31.

    David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch

    February 27, 2022 at 4:46 am

    @opiejeanne:   (photo)

  32. 32.

    David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch

    February 27, 2022 at 4:48 am

    @mrmoshpotato: ​
    That’s not fair, she more likely a spy than a traitor

  33. 33.

    mrmoshpotato

    February 27, 2022 at 4:50 am

    @David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: There’s a difference here?

  34. 34.

    eclare

    February 27, 2022 at 4:52 am

    @Mallard Filmore:   No idea…I think we’ll know a lot on Monday.  I read that Kyiv is under a curfew til then.

  35. 35.

    Jimmm

    February 27, 2022 at 5:02 am

    @opiejeanne:

    I’ve heard that sugar in the gas tank doesn’t actually do anything…  but adding water to fuel can shut an engine down right quick.

  36. 36.

    David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch

    February 27, 2022 at 5:18 am

    the tempo is intensifying, Ukraine is now employing Mazel Tov Cocktails​

  37. 37.

    The Thin Black Duke

    February 27, 2022 at 5:31 am

    “The most dangerous thing a society can do,” James Baldwin said, “is to create an enemy who has nothing else left to lose.”

  38. 38.

    Warblewarble

    February 27, 2022 at 5:32 am

    Palestinian children throwing stones at Israeli tanks are still terrorists to be shot.

  39. 39.

    eclare

    February 27, 2022 at 5:59 am

    @Jimmm:   Someone just forwarded an article to me, you’re right.

  40. 40.

    JPL

    February 27, 2022 at 6:31 am

    @The Thin Black Duke: When the oligarchs lose their yachts and villas, they might rid us Putin.

  41. 41.

    eclare

    February 27, 2022 at 6:35 am

    @JPL:   That is my hope!

  42. 42.

    MomSense

    February 27, 2022 at 7:34 am

    @opiejeanne:

    I’ve been following Ukrainian artist @tribal.cat on Instagram.  She has posted photos of women gathering outside making Molotov cocktails.  So organized.  Honestly they look to me like the local fiber/knitting groups are activated just from the way those women rip the fabric.  Putin is well and truly fucked if the quilters and the knitters are working together.

  43. 43.

    Matt McIrvin

    February 27, 2022 at 7:35 am

    @RaflW: The main thing to me is that Putin’s Western allies have almost all abandoned him in the past couple of days. Trump and Tulsi Gabbard and most of the Fox crowd just turned. Most of the nominal lefties going on about how opposition to Russia is the new McCarthyism have had to do a walk back on Ukraine. I think Greenwald is the biggest name still pushing Russia’s line.

  44. 44.

    Matt McIrvin

    February 27, 2022 at 7:36 am

    @Morzer: Yakov Smirnoff is Ukrainian.

  45. 45.

    WaterGirl

    February 27, 2022 at 7:38 am

    @MomSense: That reminds me of “You know it’s bad when the librarians are marching.”

  46. 46.

    ThresherK

    February 27, 2022 at 7:46 am

    I love Kilgore Trout, but he has missed a little detail I think. I would describe this “skimming at every level” as not a now thing but something occurring in Tzarist Russia, the USSR, and post Cold War alike. After the fall many Soviet apparitchiks hung out the “under old management ” sign.

    (Not bragging about the USA  by comparison, however.)

  47. 47.

    SFAW

    February 27, 2022 at 7:46 am

    @RaflW:

    There is no propaganda collapse, tovarishch  comrade  friend. But do you have any spare rubles dollars you can send me, so that I can heat my dacha condo in Санкт-Петербург  Saint Petersburg  New York? Спасибо  Thank you.

     

    SFAW-who-is-totally-nyet not-a-Russkiy-troll

  48. 48.

    SFAW

    February 27, 2022 at 7:50 am

    @Sebastian:

    Man, it’s like someone flipped the light switch on and all the cockroaches are scrambling for the exit.

    One can only wonder if they’ll meet the same fate as cockroaches that don’t move fast enough.

  49. 49.

    Another Scott

    February 27, 2022 at 8:36 am

    Thread:

    1. So if you are looking for background information that will help explain the extraordinary news on the bank freeze and SWIFT actions, I'll try to pull some together here. For background my and @ANewman_forward work on SWIFT and Weaponized Interdependence https://t.co/4W2N8ZhCZU https://t.co/Y0l8WdPsDD

    — Henry Farrell (@henryfarrell) February 26, 2022

    (via dsquareddigest)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  50. 50.

    jefft452

    February 27, 2022 at 8:37 am

    @Jimmm: So can bleach

  51. 51.

    Kathleen

    February 27, 2022 at 8:39 am

    @Sebastian: I have faith our vaunted media will allow them to scurry with impunity.

  52. 52.

    Gvg

    February 27, 2022 at 8:41 am

    @Jimmm: enough water. 30 years ago I got some bad gas. Less well maintained gas station underground storage tanks got some water in them and your car could stall out. I was told that was what happened probably. However, it was easily fixed by a bottle of gas treatment and being pickier of sources to buy from. Then Florida got stricter on gas station inspections and I haven’t had a problem in years.

    i don’t think water in the tank is permanent enough for this situation.

    I have no knowledge of the sugar effectiveness.

  53. 53.

    JanieM

    February 27, 2022 at 8:49 am

    @Gvg: Sand works, but it takes a while. At least it did when my car was vandalized years ago while parked at the trailhead of the coastal strip of Olympic National Park.

  54. 54.

    Brit in Chicago

    February 27, 2022 at 8:54 am

    @The Thin Black Duke

    “The most dangerous thing a society can do,” James Baldwin said, “is to create an enemy who has nothing else left to lose.”

    Yes, but I worry that this now applies to Putin as well as to the Ukrainian people. If he loses the war there is surely a danger that the regime will collapse, and I think in his own mind he cannot let that happen.

  55. 55.

    Kalakal

    February 27, 2022 at 8:57 am

    I await with interest to see how many politicians, organizations and wingnut groups across the world suddenly experience funding difficulties.

    Shits like Gabbard remind me of a statement from an old FBI guy years ago regarding communists in the US. it was (roughly)

    “McCartyism was pointless, didn’t need it.

    You wanted to know who the true believers were? Just look at who switched from ‘Stop this capitalist war’ to ‘We must delare war on Germany now’ at the end of June 1941( the launch of Barbarossa)”

    The cockroaches are being exposed to the light

  56. 56.

    Kalakal

    February 27, 2022 at 8:59 am

    @Kathleen: I share your faith

  57. 57.

    Miss Bianca

    February 27, 2022 at 11:19 am

    @MomSense:

    Putin is well and truly fucked if the quilters and the knitters are working together.

    LOL, amen, sister!

  58. 58.

    opiejeanne

    February 27, 2022 at 12:42 pm

    @JanieM: Years ago a neighbor kid put a handful of dirt into our gas tank, and the engine would stall when the gas filter clogged, and we began carrying a couple of spare filters in that vehicle.

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