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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / The War For Ukraine Update 5: Dawn Has Broken Over Kyiv and Ukraine and Their Defenders Still Stand

The War For Ukraine Update 5: Dawn Has Broken Over Kyiv and Ukraine and Their Defenders Still Stand

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I’m going to be offline most of tomorrow – I’m going to be doing heavy lifting for the Afghan refugee resettlement folks. Literally: they’ve got a bunch of heavy boxes filled with donated goods that have to be moved so volunteers can sort the items for distribution. Since picking up and putting down heavy objects is my sweet spot, so I’ll be helping them out for a good chunk of the day.

By the time I hit publish on this, dawn will have broken over Ukraine about thirty minutes ago. The news sources I’ve been following in Ukraine are largely quiet, though the air rid sirens have gone off in Kyiv and several other cities.

I do want to highlight a couple of things. The first is that earlier today on the 27th here in the US, it was reported that a large convoy of Russian forces was moving towards Kyiv.

I’ve not seen any updates on this. So something to keep an eye on as day 5 of Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine  ticks along.

Something else to track is that Ukrainian officials have stated that Belarusian paratroopers are being deployed to Ukraine. Based on the reporting, about two hours ago.

There’s some question as to whether this was 5 AM local time in Minsk or in Kyiv as the former is an hour ahead of the latter. Here too I’ve seen no follow on reporting as to whether the Belarusians deployed, didn’t deploy, were shot down once they crossed the Ukrainian border, made it to their objective, etc. So another thing to keep an eye on.

About 5 hours or so ago, the EU announced that member states would be sending fighter jets to Ukraine within the hour.

These are most likely Polish MiG 29s that were will be replaced with new EU or US built fighters. While there have been no specifics about which states they are coming from, as both Slovakia and Bulgaria also still have some MiG 29s, I think it is most likely that Ukraine sent some of its pilots to Poland to pick up the planes and fly the back. Whether the Poles had time to repaint and reflag the jets prior to them being flown to Ukraine I don’t know.

As expected, the Russian ruble has bottomed out and a lot of Russian banks and companies are likely to be bankrupt by the end of the day.

And the EU has made it clear that from their perspective, Ukraine’s path forward is with Europe:

I’ll leave everyone with this. I only wish the Benny Hill them was dubbed over the action:

I’m going to rack out as I’ve got a long day of pick up and put down ahead of me tomorrow.

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

87Comments

  1. 1.

    RaflW

    This seems fairly important

    Aviation Week @AviationWeek

    Three F-35As deployed to Amaris Air Base, Estonia, and the other three landed at Siauliai Air Base, Lithuania, where they will support NATO’s Enhanced Air Policing mission “for an extended period of time,” the U.S. Air Force said Feb. 27.
    11:49 PM est · Feb 27, 2022

  2. 2.

    Lyrebird

    Thanks Adam.

    Also need to log off, but glad to know Kyiv has held up another night there.  Will look in the morning here as well.  Wish I understood the Belarus involvement better, but not as much as I am wishing for the war to end asap.

     

    Thanks to so many informed commenters and to WG for connecting us all with the handy links.

  4. 4.

    cain

    Thanks for the update. Glad to hear that they have survived another day.
    The caravan is worrying but hopefully they run into mud and get stuck

  5. 5.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Good for you helping with the moving.  On the minor first world problem front, my parents’ oven is dying so they need to get a new stove.  My mom has decided that she wants a new ‘fridge to match.  Since the old ‘fridge is still perfectly cromulent (but the wrong color), my parents are donating it to help a resettled Afghan family.

  6. 6.

    Calouste

    @Lyrebird: 
    The Belarusian involvement is because if Putin’s gone, Lukashenko is going to end up dead as well.

    Note that this morning (IIRC) Zelenskyy talked to Lukasheko about the talks between Russia and Ukraine and Lukashenko said none of his troops were involved. No surprise he lied.

  8. 8.

    Cathie from Canada

    My own feeling is that the Ukraine will have to hold on for another week by themselves without surrendering.
    The arms and resources that other nations have pledged still need to get there and be deployed, and it may also take several more days before any “foreign legion” recruits can arrive (on a side note, I wonder if any mercenary companies will working also for Ukraine). As well, I anticipate Putin will try an “extinction burst” of aggression as he tries desperately to force Ukraine surrender before more help arrives.
    Its going to be an awful week.

  9. 9.

    Adam L Silverman

    I want to make a very quick apology to everyone. When I was doing the title I was originally typing “Dawn Has Broken Over Kyiv and the Ukrainian Defenders Still Stand” and then I changed it to “Kyiv and Ukraine” but didn’t delete the “the” in front of Ukraine. This was not intentional and I was definitely not intending to downgrade Ukraine back to how it was referred to during Soviet days.

    I’ve gone ahead and revised both the title and the permalink, unfortunately the tweet indicating a new post in Cole’s timeline has the screw up.

    And now to bed!

  10. 10.

    The Pale Scot

    Oryx says on twitter they can’t keep up with a tally of RU losses. They count 7 SAM systems as destroyed, which is a lot me thinks. If the radar truck and its crew have been whacked, those losses are hard to replace. Crews are few, and the radar needs to calibrated in theater, it has to constantly adjusted, they can’t just throw together a new crew. That would explain the survival of the UKR AF. I suspect the hand of NATO recon IDing the radars and their position

     

    Oops link

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

  11. 11.

    RaflW

    @debbie: Apparently the RU stock market will have a delayed opening, and the RU central bank is delaying trading of the Ruble.

    Putin’s plans are really unfolding gloriously for the home team.

  12. 12.

    The Dangerman

    I’ll be interested when Boris and Natasha show up at the bank (which is closed) and try to buy bread at the store (also closed).

    Going to be Roc … no, no can’t do it.

  13. 13.

    Calouste

    @Cathie from Canada: 
    Most of the number I’ve seen have been relatively small amounts (100’s-1000’s), as in a few plane loads. That should be able to get there fast, basically fly it to Poland and truck it over the border. I assume that these are reserves that those countries have ready for fast responses themselves (considering the quantities), so they’re ready to ship.

  15. 15.

    Urza

    I’d put that farmer up against any of our so called patriots that whine all the time any day.  That is some chutzpah.

  17. 17.

    Carlo Graziani

    Adam, thanks again. Comments, questions:

    A NATO-enforced no-fly zone in Ukraine seems like a terrible idea. What about flooding Ukraine with SAMs of various types, from Stinger-class to more sophisticated radar-coupled systems? Their military has personnel trained or trainable on such systems.  That seems like a straightforward air denial option.

    Russian urban assault relies heavily on artillery — see Grozny. Their infantry urban capability is notoriously weak. This portends a very bad time for Kiev, given the Russian columns heading that way. What kind of counterbattery capability could NATO  supply quickly? Is there a way to transfer Predator-type tech to them, or is that too much of an ask?

  19. 19.

    Lyrebird

    @Calouste:

    The Belarusian involvement is because if Putin’s gone, Lukashenko is going to end up dead as well.

    Thanks for filling in that gap.

    Yikes.

    @Cathie from Canada: I think it will continue to be hellish, but I also hold out hope that each of these nights they have already survived will matter.

    I don’t think it’ll be a full week to get a few planeloads of more anti aircraft missiles, but I also do think you’re right about the danger level increasing.

    What a time.

  20. 20.

    marcopolo

    @Calouste:  Yeah, there are just so many ripples out from what is happening atm.  Remember both Belarus & Kazakhstan have had mass protests to their leadership very recently (hell, one reason Putin wants Ukraine regime change is a former Soviet republic full of a lot of Russians that seems to be making a go of it as a democracy, that seems to be getting its corruption problems slowly sorted out, that seems to be succeeding economically where Russia has utterly failed since 1991 is a existential threat to him and his rule there) Also, Lukanhesko appeared to need help from Russian riot troops to hang on.  You know the folks in those countries are looking closely at what is happening in Ukraine.  One last note, I saw a graph showing the GDP/per capita income for Poland, the Baltics, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech republic (and maybe Romania) AND Ukraine since the break up of the Soviet Union.  All of the former SSRs that have turned towards Europe & the EU are doing substantially better economically than UA and the divergence is growing faster over time.  If your country has a border w/ both Poland & Russia & you are aware of that kind of thing its no wonder that a majority of Ukrainians would like to be more western leaning (and that’s before the appeal of having a more open, democratic, less corrupt society/economy/politics).

  21. 21.

    Leto

    I don’t know if we’ve covered this, but I laughed my ass off:

    “I don’t regret a thing” – Ukrainian unrepentant for attempting to sink yacht

    D. Taras O., the 55-year-old Ukrainian who attempted to sink the luxury yacht that belongs to Alexander Mijeev, stated in court on Sunday: “I don’t regret anything I’ve done and I would do it again.”

    Arrested for partially sinking the luxury yacht in Port Adriano, he fully accepted the facts of the case and assumed total responsibility for what had happened. When the Guardia Civil arrived in Port Adriano on Saturday, he turned himself in and told officers: “My boss is a criminal who sells weapons that kill the Ukrainian people.” Alexander Mijeev is the CEO of Rosoboronexport, a Russian military weapons company.

    He has worked as a mechanic on the Lady Anastasia for some ten years. He acted after seeing a news report om the television. He told the judge: “I watched the news about the war. There was a video of a helicopter attack on a building in Kyiv. The armaments used are produced by the yacht owner’s company. They were attacking innocents.”

    Nominate the bolded for new rotating tag.

  22. 22.

    marcopolo

    @Cathie from Canada:  Pretty sure a lot of the munitions are already in Ukraine now.  Europe’s a pretty small place compared to say the US.  After crossing like the Polish border I wouldn’t be surprised if they make it into action within the following 24 hours.

    What I wonder about is how long it will take (and how many) ex-pat Ukrainians return to the nest to fight and how many foreigners also make that trip (since both the UK & Denmark have given the green light for their citizens to “volunteer” for a Ukraine foreign fighter unit).  I guess I also read that the French Foreign Legion has also released any of its Ukrainian members (along with their kit) who want to return to fight.

    Adam, if you ever see this, do you have any feeling for numbers & timelines for that kind of assistance?  Is this more of another good story/propaganda thing or could those folks actually make a difference in the fighting?

  24. 24.

    Leto

    Dzana Gellert@Dzana1407

    When asked why Germany completely changed its attitude against arms delivery to Ukraine, a high-ranking politician said: “The calmness and prudence of @POTUS, who did not put us under pressure, but gave us time to think about it ourselves! Thank you Mr. Biden! Wow ???

    1:01 PM · Feb 27, 2022·

  25. 25.

    marcopolo

    @Leto:  I think I read the police decided not to hold him after he explained why he did what he did–though I do think they want him to show up for arraignment, yeah, right?

    So amazing how the info psyops war is just totally dominated by the pro-Ukrainian stuff–like that APC being towed by the tractor or the dude removing a mine barehanded from a bridge while smoking a cig.

  28. 28.

    Redshift

    @Lyrebird: Lukaschenko in Belarus maintained a certain degree of autonomy from Russia for many years, but since the mass protests over his latest stolen election last year, he’s become completely dependent on Putin. So now he has the Russian invasion being staged in his country, and just held a sham constitutional “referendum” that will, among other things, end Belarus’ non-nuclear status, allowing Putin to station nukes there.

  30. 30.

    CaseyL

    @Redshift:  I didn’t have any faith in “peace talks” taking place near Belarus to start with, but now that Lukaschenko has thrown in entirely with Putin, I wonder if they’ll happen at all.  (Last I heard, the Ukrainian attendees only referred to “government officials,” not to Zelenskyy specifically, so maybe he’s decided not to chance it.)

    @Sister Golden Bear:  And Prince can go fuck himself to death.  Would not trust any “assistance” from him as far as I can throw a Russian tank.

  32. 32.

    gwangung

    @Leto: ABSO-fricking-LUTELY.

    The smoothness of the rollout of sanctions and economic measures has been amazing; it started out as a slow drip and now has ramped up to a stream and in the future will be near to a flood.

    It has Biden’s fingerprints all over it, and the way the US has always gone second is almost ostentatious in its obviousness.

  33. 33.

    marcopolo

    @James E Powell:  Erik Prince has been supplying mercs (that apparently he trains in China ?) to folks like the Russian oligarchs.  Pretty sure he is on the other side of the ledger from the gallant folks in Ukraine, despite the shit talking he just did with Fucker Carlson.  He is a loathsome evil person who couldn’t give a fuck for anyone that can’t pay up.  Come to think of it, maybe that’s what’s behind this 180 from him–with the economic sanctions taking effect, none of the Russians may have the funds to pay him.

  38. 38.

    Arclite

    Adam, with all of those boxes to move, you need to invite your Ukrainian buddy: Pikop Andropov! ?

  39. 39.

    Steeplejack

    @Cathie from Canada:

    I anticipate Putin will try an “extinction burst” of aggression as he tries desperately to force Ukraine surrender before more help arrives.

    Good point. I wonder whether we have gotten a little giddy with the Ukrainians’ success the last few days and we’re really just in a sort of “phony war” lull before shit gets very bad. The big Russian convoy heading toward Kyiv is a bad sign.

    It’s after 8:00 a.m. in Ukraine. We’ll see how the day goes.

  40. 40.

    Sebastian

    Are the NATO-owned Mig-29 in any way or form modified to take advantage of NATO infrastructure (is that the right word) like in-air refueling, AWACS, etc?

    Can they use NATO armament?

  41. 41.

    RaflW

    Interesting tidbit from FT (paraphrasing quite loosely as they dislike blockquoting their content): Both the BP divestiture of their 20% stake in Rosneft and the plans for Norway’s massive sovereign wealth (aka banked oil cash) fund to divest from a number of RU firms may be briefly derailed.

    The Russian stock market failed to open its morning session, may not open in the afternoon, and to the extent possible, is attempting to ban foreign holders of Russian shares from being able to sell.

    Do these non-Russian shareholders at some point just have to write off their investments? Even if they can sell, they’ll likely get kopeks per ruble (and then have to convert the useless rubles!)

    Not that either BP or the Norge fund are likely to be too badly hurt. Oil elsewhere is trading at very high prices.

  42. 42.

    Sebastian

    @debbie:

    More Ilyushins to shoot down. The Ukrainians received like a thousand Stingers today. I’ve lost count, to be perfectly honest. This is just insane.

    Between Sweden and Denmark alone, they got something like 8,000 Javelins and NLAWs, and hundreds of Stingers.

  46. 46.

    RaflW

    @Sebastian: I suppose. If at such time as Rosneft assets aren’t sanctioned or embargoed.

    If Putin unleashes a massive civilian killing event, there should be no Russian company that can utter an economic peep outside the Federation for a generation.

    (And yeah, I know. Fat chance. Bayer, Continental tire and plenty of other companies were complicit with Hitler and still chug along as global brands today.)

  47. 47.

    Calouste

    @RaflW: From what I read about the BP announcement it seemed like they thought their Rosneft investment could end up being a complete write-off.

  49. 49.

    RaflW

    Frum is an insufferable fap. But still, I hope he’s right about this:

    @davidfrum
    Doubtful that the ruble will be convertible into anything at all much longer. It’s on its way to effective worthlessness, as the Soviet ruble was effectively worthless: an accounting unit within a closed economy, but unable to buy goods or services on international markets

  50. 50.

    Sebastian

    @Carlo Graziani:

    The Ukrainians have Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and are wreaking havoc on Russian armor. They are drowning in Javelins and NLAWs, it’s not even funny. They just received ANOTHER 5,000.

    That 3.5mi long column is stuck and sitting ducks. It’s not a threat, it’s an utter operational disaster, a blunder of epic proportions.

    Stingers were allegedly in short supply but Denmark sent 500.

  53. 53.

    Redshift

    @Calouste: Yeah, the discussion on BBC was that they’ve known their investment was problematic for a while, but the problem was that any potential buyers were also terrible, so they had no good options. From what I’m reading the general thinking is that it will be a write off rather than an actual sale

  54. 54.

    The Pale Scot

    This account purports that the RU forces weren’t briefed or trained, just given ammo and sent over the border. Clueless officers, no useful com gear to get orders, no organized logistics. I’d say its propaganda except it tracks with the evidence.

    Now the question is whether all that equipment being seen rolling to the border on railcars is going to be organized and supported or just sent down the road like the first guys

    And the Ukrainians have set up a hotline for Russians to call to see if their sons are POWs

     

    https://twitter.com/EnglishUkraine/status/1498078629724663813

  55. 55.

    BCHS Class of 1980

    @Steeplejack:  Time will tell but to me seeing that huge line of vehicles in single file in an environment where Russia doesn’t own the skies and Turkish drones fill the air makes me think of the classic Far Side, “How Birds See The World.”

  60. 60.

    Arclite

    @marcopolo:

    So amazing how the info psyops war is just totally dominated by the pro-Ukrainian stuff–like that APC being towed by the tractor or the dude removing a mine barehanded from a bridge while smoking a cig.

    Don’t forget about the Ukrainian who blew himself up with a bridge because the Russians were close and there was no time to run a remote detonator.

  61. 61.

    Sebastian

    @The Pale Scot:

    I said days ago this has the feel of a Trump-level incompetence shitshow.

    Amazing. All these years all this empty and annoying yapping about how Putin is so effective and gets shit done blah blah.

    The idiot couldn’t win a war with the Russian Army. Let that sink in, bro.

  62. 62.

    Tehanu

    @Steeplejack: 

    I wonder whether we have gotten a little giddy with the Ukrainians’ success the last few days and we’re really just in a sort of “phony war” lull before shit gets very bad.

    My worry too, but I’m trying not to let it swamp my thinking.

  65. 65.

    Sebastian

    @Steeplejack:

    No, the emperor has no clothes. There are still people hanging on to the belief of a mighty Russian Army when in reality it’s an absolute shitshow, which only people who lived in Communism can fully -in its mindboggling entirety- comprehend.

    There is no plan. There is no working system. Everything is hollow and falls apart the moment you lean on it. It’s all Trumpian, dude.

  66. 66.

    burnspbesq

    @Sebastian:&nbsp

    One imagines that a high operational priority for Russian forces will be to locate and neutralize the half dozen or so (inferred from publicly available info about the procurement) TB2 ground stations. Those are truck-mounted, so they have some ability to play hide-and-seek.

  70. 70.

    trollhattan

    Tractor>tank video is a perfect capper to the day. “Come and get chickens now, Mister Fox.”

    Night, all, Monday awaits.

  73. 73.

    VOR

    Never done this before so apologies if I mess it up. The UK journalist Carole Cadwalladr just posted a Grand Unified Theory of Russian social media activity.

    The first Great Information War began in 2014. The invasion of Ukraine is the latest front.

    To summarize, her theory is that everything is connected. Russia started messing w/Ukraine in 2014 after Maidan and started an dis-information war with the West at the same time. Brexit is part of it. US 2016 election is part of it. They were joint operations to weaken the supporters of Ukraine.

    It makes sense, sort of like how Bin Laden decided the way to weaken Saudi Arabia was to attack the supporter – the United States.

  74. 74.

    Sebastian

    @burnspbesq:

    You’d think, right? Problem is, nobody is in charge. You haven’t seen incompetence until you have seen kleptocracy commie Russian incompetence.

    I am dealing with a lot of lawyers these days so I feel for you because this must hurt your brain even more, but to truly understand the full scope of this shitshow, imagine a shoe salesman or cab driver in charge of this task.

    He has six years of elementary school and started smoking and drinking at age 11 or 12.

  82. 82.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Steeplejack:

     I wonder whether we have gotten a little giddy with the Ukrainians’ success the last few days and we’re really just in a sort of “phony war” lull before shit gets very bad. The big Russian convoy heading toward Kyiv is a bad sign.

    The Russians are firing a shitload of rockets into Kharkiv today, dozens of deaths, hundreds of injuries.  Apparently just indiscriminate firing, no pretense of trying to hit military targets.

    Horrible.

  83. 83.

    BCHS Class of 1980

    @lowtechcyclist: And this is Kharkiv, on their freakin’ doorstep. No more pretense of takeover, just a childish approach of “if I can’t have it I’ll just break it! So there!”

  85. 85.

    Ken

    @VOR: To summarize, her theory is that everything is connected.

    This theory may or may not be right, but I’m more intrigued by my own reaction to an “everything centers on X” theory that doesn’t have the United States as X.

  86. 86.

    MisterDancer

    @Kelly: As a dancer — DAMN. I’ve been in heels a few times and until/unless you get used to it, it’s work to just walk in them (as most of the women/femme/drag folx reading this know all too well!)

    Dancing in them? For a video on TV?

    This Dude is FOR REAL.

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