In the morning thread, we briefly discussed some walk-backs from public figures like Matt Taibbi and Edward Snowden, who both pooh-poohed the possibility that Putin would order a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Snowden went silent after events proved him catastrophically wrong and bobbed to the surface briefly to say he was avoiding pontification on the topic now since he was wrong then.
Taibbi owned up to “reverse chauvinism,” saying he was “so fixated on Western misbehavior that I didn’t bother to take this possibility seriously enough.” Huh. We’ll see if that insight bears fruit going forward. (Spoiler alert: it won’t.)
TPM’s resident lefty populist, John Judis, is also doing a backwards shuffle. He notes that he got it wrong in part because he reflexively distrusts U.S. intel after the Iraq War debacle. His publisher disagrees.
Anyhoo, “populist” (i.e., anti-immigration) politicians in Europe are also getting in on the Putin walk-back act, according to The Wall Street Journal:
What Europe’s populists saw in Mr. Putin was a kindred spirit, a leader willing to disregard the rules of international cooperation that emerged in the wake of World War II, underpinned by the military might of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. They admired Mr. Putin’s unapologetic nationalism and his deep-seated distrust of the U.S.
That admiration is now running up against the reality of Mr. Putin’s forces pouring into Ukraine. Some populists are rushing to distance themselves, branding Mr. Putin’s aggression a setback of historic proportions.
Others are trying to strike a balance, rejecting Mr. Putin’s actions while acknowledging he has a place in their political heart.
“I think that everybody has a form of admiration for Mr. Putin, but frankly, I consider that what he’s done is highly reprehensible,” Ms. Le Pen said Friday.
“No to war, always. Yes to life, always,” Mr. Salvini, leader of Italy’s League party, wrote in a Twitter post Thursday. Mr. Salvini wrote that he “firmly condemns the military aggression” but stopped short of mentioning Mr. Putin by name.
Not to be outdone by anti-immigration foreigners who’ve also been rejected at the polls, the current leader of the GOP is combining Salvini’s mealy-mouthed avoidance of the “P” word with a risible statement on NATO, which he now claims to have saved when he publicly shook member nations down like an oddly a-muscular mob debt collector:
I hope everyone is able to remember that it was me, as President of the United States, that got delinquent NATO members to start paying their dues, which amounted to hundreds of billions of dollars. There would be no NATO if I didn’t act strongly and swiftly.
JFC.
By the way, speaking of Putin, Le Pen and Trump, does anyone else remember this grotesque thing a Putin-worshiping zealot displayed at a January 2017 Trump inauguration party in Russia?
I remember being disturbed by the image as I was lounging in my cut-rate DC hotel room waiting for the Women’s March to start. It stuck in my mind due to the creepy-combo aesthetic of “Triumph of the Will” meets “The Omen.” I’d bet a small sum a copy is displayed in a private room at Trump’s Disgraceland estate in Florida right now.
Open thread.
Baud
I had not seen that painting before. That is creepy.
Baud
I won’t have much to be proud of when I die, but never becoming seduced by a political cult is something I will be thankful for.
cope
I also will walk back my pontificating about the aims of Putin. Just days before the actual invasion began, I confidently told my wife there would be no invasion, Putin was waving his dick around and U.S. intelligence was showing off their capabilities by letting him know they were keeping tabs of every move he made and every step he took. Hoo boy, was I wrong and I stand here before you all awaiting your judgement and due punishment.
Ken
@Baud: It reminds me a bit of Cecilia Giménez’ famous restoration of the mural in Borja.
Ken
@Baud: Founding a political cult, on the other hand….
John Revolta
Don’t worry though! There is One who still holds Lefty Principles Paramount!
Russia puts nukes on high alert. Foreign policy experts have long warned of the danger of trying to expand NATO, but the war hawks ignored them & pushed Ukraine into conflict with Russia.
There is no scenario where adding Ukraine to NATO is worth nuclear war & human extinction.
We need to tell the truth about US/NATO provocations that got us here.
-Dr. Jill Stein (who else?)
Jeffro
These GQP clowns can try to walk back their Putin love and good luck to them…what I want to see is for them to be pressed for their thoughts on trumpov’s love for Putin, like George S did to Tom Cotton yesterday.
NO, Tom Cotton…we aren’t asking for trumpov’s thoughts on Putin, we’re asking for YOUR thoughts about trumpov’s love for Putin. I don’t have to have trumpov on the show to ask YOU about what YOU think.
If they keep getting those awkward silences from Cotton and his ilk, and lame-ass pivots to slamming Dems, Biden, etc, that’s fine – it’s as good as a confession.
Baud
@Ken:
Yeah, that’s completely different. That’s my legacy.
Betty Cracker
@cope: No harm, no foul in my book. I was pretty sure it was dick-waving too. Lots of people were.
NotMax
Keep meaning to look up any publicly available floor plans of the White House complex to pinpoint hidey holes where the official portrait of Dolt 45 (cannot come close to imagining what that’ll look like, but rubles to pishki it will be YOOGE) can be put on a wall.
//
Brit in Chicago
Night has fallen in Ukraine and I’m eager for news (and hoping it’s good for the Ukrainians, of course) but haven’t heard much recently. Anyone know anything about what’s going on on the ground there?
Ohio Mom
@cope: Maybe I flatter us — I also had doubts Putin would wage full-scale war — but I think there is a qualitative difference between miscalculations based on fervently hoping for the best, and those based on ignoring exactly how evil evil people can be (all the people Betty lists on the post).
I never doubted Putin was as bad as they come, I just assumed he was better at calculating risks than he is evidently is.
zhena gogolia
@cope: Don’t feel bad. Predictions about Putin are a mug’s game.
Geminid
The first round of France’s Presidential election is only 6 weeks away, on April 10. If Le Pen is running the reaction of voters will be interesting. The runoff will be April 24.
The invasion of Ukraine has had a powerful effect in this country, among people who usually are not so engaged in foreign affairs. The reaction in Europe must be intense.
Raven Onthill
I wonder how the collapse of the ruble will affect US political campaigns. Dare I hope that the Moscow 10 will lose in 2022? (The RMB, on the other hand, will just soldier on.)
Baud
@cope:
Ironically, dick-waving is how Bush sold the Iraq war — wave dick to get inspectors. In that case, the people who recognized Bush was lying were the correct ones.
I think the lesson is not to reflexively distrust the U.S. government, but to reflexively distrust right-wing governments of all countries.
Roger Moore
@cope:
I don’t think private citizens deserve too much criticism for thinking Putin was just threatening and wouldn’t actually carry through on his threats. He’s done that enough in the past it’s easy to believe. But extreme certainty is a luxury we have as private people whose opinion isn’t carried beyond our circle of friends and family. Serious opinion journalists have an obligation to know what they’re talking about and to have the humility to accept they don’t know everything. At the very least, they should have accepted that a bully like Putin might feel obligated to carry through on his threats to prove they weren’t empty.
Suzanne
You know what made me really scared and made me think war was coming for sure? The whole Kamila Valyeva mess. It was so obvious that the Powers That Be were threatening her differently than they would have treated another athlete from somewhere else because they didn’t want to step on Putin’s toes and make him feel embarrassment.
zhena gogolia
@Jeffro: Yes, more of this.
Old School
I’m not sure who the woman between Putin and Trump in the painting is. I’m assuming it isn’t supposed to be Cate Blanchett.
Edit: Ahh. Le Pen. It’s even in the post.
West of the Rockies
@cope: 30 lashes with a wet noodle until you are sticky, sticky, STICKY! And may Dog have mercy on your soul.
lowtechcyclist
The intel agencies didn’t do a bad job with respect to Iraq. Dick Cheney’s motherfucking Office of Special Plans then cherry-picked the intel to make it seem like there was a case for war. Anyone paying attention back then should know that.
As far as Snowden is concerned, it’s worth remembering that the entire Russian foreign-policy establishment had no idea this was coming, and assumed it was all just a bluff on Putin’s part. So it’s hard for me to blame anyone in Russia for calling this one wrong. At least Snowden had the decency to admit he got it wrong, and say that on account of that, any further speculation on his part would be worthless.
I don’t know jack shit about Tiabbi, I don’t even know what outlet he writes for
ETA:
Well then, he should have been anti-Putin for years, because everyone knows of Putin’s habit of killing off his critics and political opponents. If that didn’t bother him, then his ‘yes to life’ is a principle he adopted just these past few days.
dmsilev
So far as I know, Putin still has Glenn Greenwald. That’s something, I guess.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
Who are you referring to here? Does that include the intel folks in the administration?
eclare
@cope: I was kind of 50/50. Who knows? But the only creatures that listen to me are my cats…so it’s not like I influence anyone.
I will admit, after Iraq (which I protested against from the start, what a lie) and the last admin, I was a little wary of taking US intelligence at its word. What a difference a change in administrations makes, when you have a thoughtful, sober, and truthful one. From now on if Joe says that intelligence shows the sky is green, I’ll look up and think “looks blue to me, but Joe says green, so green it is.”
NotMax
Spent not quite two hours today playing phone tree tag involving multiple calls to 2 – count ’em, 2 – different companies about 1 – count it, 1 – sizeable pothole on the highway of life.
All indicators on the NotMax mission control board once again glowing green. For now.
Having nothing but time apres retirement occasionally acts as a plus.
;)
MattF
There was evidence on both sides of the ‘will-he or won’t-he’ argument, but the size of the troop concentration on Ukraine’s borders seemed to me to be a giveaway. When you’ve moved half your armed forces to a specific area, it’s reasonable to conclude that something’s up.
ETA: And all the adamant denials from Russian spokespersons could be construed as evidence for either view.
oldgold
Of course, the Ukraine situation will be a focal point of the SOTU. Will it feature some special gesture of support for Ukraine? If so, any guesses and/or suggestions?
lowtechcyclist
No, the Russian foreign-policy establishment. The people in the Russian government who conduct Russian foreign policy. Not the U.S. foreign policy establishment.
Baud
@eclare:
50/50 isn’t really a prediction. The problem is people who make a prediction and then get huffy when Biden or whoever isn’t implementing policy as if that prediction were definitive.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist: Gotcha.
ETA: I read “Russian” as referring to the subject matter, not the nationality.
Miss Bianca
@John Revolta: I guess her checks haven’t started bouncing yet.
eclare
@Suzanne: Interesting assessment
lowtechcyclist
@John Revolta:
“Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.”
catclub
@Baud:
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Baud: Even the Russian government assumed Putin was bluffing.
It looks like Putin pulled a fast one on Putin, but it’s only a matter of time before Putin figures out what Putin did to Putin and Putin retaliates against Putin. Not to often does the left hand not know what the right hand is doing in the same man.
JoyceH
I’ll admit that I didn’t expect Russia to actually invade, but what’s really got me gobsmacked is how BAD the Russian military is turning out to be.
Oklahomo
@Baud:
It’s even worse than that execrable Jon McNaughton schlock.
LeftCoastYankee
John Judis is one of those pundits who try too hard to always be contrarian, to the point where most of his columns are silly nonsense. I don’t see what he brings to TPM. Maybe he always picks up the bar tab….
That painting is horrifying. Of course with those monsters in it, it couldn’t help but be, even if it was kittens and rainbows in the background.
mrmoshpotato
What? Do I even want to know what this asshat was scolding the West about?
Miss Bianca
@MattF:
“There is NO rioting in Red Square. And when I say there is no rioting, I mean there is a certain amount. Maybe.”
Citizen Alan
@John Revolta: Damn. And here I’d begun to hope that the good doctor had died of covid or something and I’d just missed the obituary.
Calouste
Re European populists, there are also once that just keep sucking Putin’s cock. The Dutch parliament had invited the Ukrainian ambassador today, and two right-extremist parties refused to stand up when he entered the chamber (besides the regular spouting of Kremlin propaganda). Later parliament voted to start an investigation into the possible Russian financing of Dutch political parties. Surprisingly only one of those two right-extremist parties voted against that, which I assumes means the other thinks they have covered their tracks. Local elections in the Netherlands are in two weeks.
Baud
@mrmoshpotato:
You know how libertarians think the government is the only real evil. There are a group of lefty pundits who think that Western capitalsim/imperialism is the only real evil. It colors their analysis of events.
Miss Bianca
@mrmoshpotato: It’s just THE WEST, man! Like, THE WEST is always THE MAN, man!
MisterForkbeard
@lowtechcyclist: Yes, we DO need to tell the truth about UN/NATO provocations that got us here.
We said we wouldn’t rule out Ukraine joining but they had the follow the rules for admission, which Russia can effectively block.
That’s it.
trollhattan
Can anybody name a difference between the administration in office for the Iraq War and the current one? Simply wracking my brain here to come up with anything. Anybody?
MisterForkbeard
@JoyceH: To be fair, Ukraine is getting a LOT of assistance. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they were being fed the locations of Russian AA and armor and they certainly aren’t lacking for weapons or funding.
hueyplong
@Oklahomo: “It’s even worse than that execrable Jon McNaughton schlock.”
Let’s not get carried away. That Putin/LePen/Trump thing looks like any number of Michael Bay movie posters. McNaughton is in a league of his on.
UncleEbeneezer
Who is the woman in the center of the painting?
Ken
Perhaps not the best time for me to mention Dr. Strangelove, from the movie of the same name….
JoyceH
@MisterForkbeard: Yeah, but the Afghans had all the latest and greatest of American equipment and years of training and they collapsed like a house of cards.
mrmoshpotato
@Ken:
LOL!
trollhattan
@Baud:
Need to carve out cops and the military as “the good stuff” about the federal gummint; the rest can be handled locally or by lawyers, or both. Neighbor put in a lead smelter? Lawyer! Schools teaching Herbert Hoover invented SPAM? Lawyer! Pothole swallowed your F-150? Lawyer! Floaters in your drinking water? Lawyer!
MattF
@UncleEbeneezer: Le Pen, I’d assume. Not a bad likeness, merely creepy.
Bec
@Baud: I think this is absolutely the correct take.
mrmoshpotato
@Baud:
@Miss Bianca: Oh, so bullshit. Taibbi was wagging his finger about bullshit. Gotcha.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
That “everybody” sure is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
I suppose Marine Le Pen was just fine with Putin when he imprisoned Alexei Navalny and nearly killed him. Fuck her
NotMax
@Miss Bianca
What’s the Russian for “Baghdad Bob?”
//
Suzanne
@Baud: Rod Dreher can’t stop writing columns blaming transgender people and cancel culture and Black Lives Matter for the Russian invasion.
That man is legitimately mentally unwell. I don’t know why he has a column.
Miss Bianca
@trollhattan:
You know what? This is just “both sides” bullshit from this jamoke, and it’s insulting. He never stops to question whether intelligence gathering and dissemination under a President Biden could possibly be any different than the same operations under Bush or Trump. No, “both sides” must be equally venal and incompetent, because argle bargle
THE WESTUS ALWAYS BAD, man!Asshat.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
Those people are the most infuriating. They completely ignore the imperialistic actions of other non-Western nations. What Russia is doing to Ukraine is textbook imperialism
So instead of recognizing it for it is, they have to twist themselves into pretzels and justify the invasion by saying condescending shit like “Ukraine isn’t a real country” or trying to blame NATO for “making” Russia do it
MisterForkbeard
@JoyceH: True, but we also explicitly weren’t helping them as part of the treaty, other than leaving them stuff that we had publicly disclosed to all parties. And it looks like the Afghan Army basically didn’t exist in a real sense – lots of “on paper” only soldiers, commanding officers that had cut deals with the Taliban, and so on.
Ukraine’s army has their shit together and a ton of outside assistance. Afghan’s army was a paper tiger defending against other (very fervid) Afghans. Russia’s army is also apparently not great, but probably not as bad as this all seems.
Calouste
@JoyceH: Different country, and of course the Taliban are Afghans, not foreign invaders. You can check with Russia how easy it is to occupy Afghanistan.
MisterForkbeard
@Suzanne:
That’s why he has the column. He’s there to provide bad faith justifications for why everything is the Democrat’s fault.
Brachiator
Good summary of the various ass wipes who are trying to walk back their idiocies.
In the UK, Boris Johnson is stumbling, and all time piece of crap Nigel Farage is still trying to kiss up to his Russian paymasters while appearing to disown them.
And I don’t want to bash him too harshly, but even some recent comments by former Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn are not looking too good. He mumbles something about always being for peace and all parties coming to the table, but it is unclear whether he would be okay with Russia keeping the parts of Ukraine it has occupied.
He acted bigly, too. Goddam, Trump is shameless. It would be pathetic if so many of his supporters did not eat this shit up.
Also I note the CPAC story saying that conservatives are doing their best to ignore this story altogether.
I don’t watch Fox News, but I presume that they are scrambling to come up with the new party line. Days ago, their hosts were insisting that Putin had no intention of invading Ukraine.
The sad thing is that the GOP base is waiting for the new lie to believe.
ETA: Germany has announced that they are massively increasing their military budget. Putin thought he was the big dog. He may have no idea what he has unleashed.
This lesson may also apply to those who insisted that the US had to do something stronger to dissuade Putin from expanding further into Europe.
trollhattan
@Suzanne:
Seems like he’s being a good little cub
reporterstenographer because I heard a BBC interview with a Duma member in Vlad’s Russia is Awesome, eh? Party, who blamed the Russian antiwar street demonstrations on “Trotskyites, gays and lesbians.”I kid thee not.
Baud
@Suzanne:
That’s hardly new. Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson famously blamed 9/11 on abortionists and homosexuals, IIRC.
Suzanne
@trollhattan: I think the guy is just so unbelievably terrified. There’s a certain subtype of weirdo whose self-concept is very much about being normal, middle of the road, sane when everyone else is insane. Most of us on the political left got used to feeling outsider-y, I think. He did not, and yet he finds himself outside the mainstream and that is scary to the Ned Flanders type.
Timill
@Brit in Chicago: Well, my Kyiv correspondent says:
“Third nights in raw in bomb shelter. Today Russian missiles hit Brovary, Kyiv suburban, 20 minutes away from my place. Fuck you, Russian World.”
Brit in Knoxville TN
trollhattan
@Miss Bianca:
Righto. This stuff makes me want to tear my hair out. The entire intelligence apparatus was directed to reverse-engineer a rationale to invade Iraq and kill Saddam. Biden would seem to be asking that same apparatus, “Tell me what’s happening, what’s going to happen, and what we can do about it? Interact with our allies’ intelligence.”
“Two sides of the same coin.” Riiiiiight. One coin, one gummy worm.
hueyplong
@trollhattan: I’m dying to vote for a Clinton/Trotsky ticket. Or at least hear FoxNews talk about the fear of such a thing materializing.
Yarrow
@mrmoshpotato: Taibbi was scolding the west because it’s his fucking job since Russia has all sorts of shit on him and if he doesn’t do this sort of thing they’ll extract payback. That’s what you need to know.
VOR
I remember confidently telling people in 2015 that Trump wasn’t serious about running for President. He’ll never do the financial disclosure, I said. It never occurred to me that he could simply skip that step while the media and voters shrugged their shoulders.
Moral of the story: Be aware of what assumptions lie under your opinions.
MattF
Actual expert notes that Russian tactics so far have been disastrous (for achieving their goals) but that could change. However, it’s easier to talk about fixing your plan and your tactics, harder to actually do it.
Soonergrunt
@Brachiator: The party line at Fox is that this is all Biden’s fault for not giving the Russians exactly what they wanted and respecting Russia’s “legitimate security concerns”*.
Like the spouse abuser or abusive parent who screams “SEE WHAT YOU MADE ME DO?”
*Russia has NO legitimate security concerns with respect to the countries that make up the “near abroad”.
germy
Geminid
I was thinking about Trump’s announcement in June, 2020, that he intended to withdraw 12,000 U.S. troops from Germany, including at least one fighter wing. This was blocked for 120 days by language in the National Defense Authorization Act, passed in the 2020 lame duck session after Congress overrode Trump’s veto. Then in early February of last year President Biden killed the withdrawal plan.
That NDAA also had attached to it legislation long sponsored by Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney, the “Corporate Transparency Act” I think. The legislation attacks the use of shell companies to conceal actual ownership, and probably hits Trump where it hurts. I’m glad Congress could override the veto.
Soonergrunt
@MattF: They cannot change.
They don’t have anywhere near the density of forces required to take, let alone hold Ukraine for any length of time. They’d need around 400,000 to 450,000 troops in country, not even including all the rest of the forces and resources in Russia to support, to engage in dealing with an even semi-hostile Ukrainian population.
The Russian army isn’t big enough to do this mission, even if it was manned by a competent officer corps supported by a strong, competent NCO corps, which it is not.
Mallard Filmore
@MisterForkbeard:
So far the biggest intelligence failure I see is … that bridges should have been set up for demolition around the time the Olympics finished. That unfortunate soldier should not have needed to set off the charge personally.
Joey Maloney
@NotMax: The Steam Pipe Trunk Distribution Venue could always use some sprucing up.
Kay
They all make the same argument and it’s this:
I just don’t buy that if there had been some capitulation on NATO the “aspirations” would disappear and reading it I don’t think Judis does either, because he just told us they are part of the “Russian psyche”.
Because if these are the “aspirations” – and I think they are because Putin said as much- just “understanding them” isn’t enough. These are “aspirations” that require actions, like invading other countries.
Every time I read one of these (and they’re all the same) I think “but then what?” If Putin’s aspirations include the “Czarist empire” then I, as the neighbor to Russia, would be plenty worried about that. That’s a reasonable fear.
schrodingers_cat
Is Tlaib still going to rebut the SOTU and beclown herself?
Brachiator
@Soonergrunt:
Wow. That is some bold bullshit that Fox is peddling. Bold in that it is so easily contradicted by switching the channel to international news for just a second, and also ignoring Putin’s own words.
The Moar You Know
@Calouste: I enjoy checking the British instead due to the magnitude of their failure.
Anybody who tried after that debacle (USSR, USA, probably China next) just can’t learn from history.
MattF
@Brachiator: ‘Legitimate’ seems to be doing a lot of thankless work these days
germy
@schrodingers_cat:
https://wdet.org/2022/02/28/tlaib-to-give-progressive-response-to-state-of-the-union/
Brachiator
@Kay:
But this was just a cheesy metaphor spouted by Reagan. It is not central to some generally accepted vision of America.
Yarrow
@germy: Oh, good. A Democrat bashes Democrats. That always works out well for Democrats.
Starboard Tack
@Brachiator: As long as we’re resurrecting, they could interview Neville Chamberlain for his views
The Moar You Know
@Yarrow: given what is known publicly about his behavior while he was there I assume that what they’ve got on him is enough to send him to prison for life – in any nation – if it gets out.
germy
@Yarrow:
It’s more entertaining when Republicans bash each other
‘I’ve got morons on my team’: Romney blasts fellow GOP members for attending White nationalist event and supporting Putin
Brachiator
@germy:
The only Democrats who should be blamed are Manchin and Sinema.
Biden and the Squad should keep this simple and focused.
I hope that Biden clearly talks about the help that has already been provided via the stimulus payments and past legislation in the American Rescue Plan. A down payment on continued prosperity as we come out of the pandemic.
Nobody cares about scoring political points.
Kay
@Brachiator:
Right. But even if it is he’s describing how Putin’s aspirations are broad and based not on “security” in a defensive sense but in reestablishing reach and lost power and influence. That’s not a defensive posture, which he as much admits with all that filler about cities on hills. He can’t have it both ways. If it’s indeed the “Russian pysche”, then it’s going forward regardless.
The other thing? They always ignore what Putin says. It’s always “I know what he SAID but this is what he MEANT”. Ok, sure. You’d know that.
Yarrow
@The Moar You Know: Who knows. He’s clearly nervous enough to do what he does. America is never a force for good, never good enough for Taibbi. When that’s the baseline and the person in question spent quite a bit of time in Russia or took large sums of money from them, it seems pretty obvious what’s going on.
UncleEbeneezer
@MattF: Ah, thanks.
topclimber
At the risk of launching a jackal jihad in my direction, I think it foolish not to understand that US policies after the fall of the Soviet Union were a significant factor in creating the Russian kleptocracy. US attempts to weaken Moscow as a military threat were understandable. US acquiescence in the plundering of the Russian economy by banksters in that country and throughout the West was unforgiveable.
Sure, we can’t give into Putin the invader. But we can’t pretend we did not help create him.
The Moar You Know
@Brachiator: No Fox viewer would ever do that. I would bet hard cash that 50+% of them don’t know how.
Yarrow
@germy: It’s bad politics for her to be bashing Democrats. She could say something like “Dems are a big party, we have varying backgrounds and viewpoints” but it should stop there. No good comes from bashing Dems, no matter how much I might like to see it.
Republicans in disarray is not only entertaining but also good for Democrats and good for the country. All energy should go to pointing out how they’re the problem.
Yarrow
@The Moar You Know: A lot of them literally can’t, judging from the people I’ve seen in nursing homes whose TVs are stuck on Fox.
evodevo
@Ohio Mom: I’m just assuming hubris….he’s been getting away with this stuff over the last 10 years, and he assumed his right wing supporters in the US and Europe would rally round and cause chaos, while spouting his “excuses” for invading (“peacekeeping”! preventing genocide!”) and in addition the resistance in Ukraine would collapse relatively fast, allowing him to capture Kiev and possibly govt. heads. It would be a fait accompli and what was NATO gonna do about it!! Now he is stuck and can’t back down – and cornered animals are the most dangerous…
Gin & Tonic
@MattF: I always rely on the American philosopher Mike Tyson: everybody’s got a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
schrodingers_cat
@germy: The opposition party (not the President’s party) gives the rebuttal. So is she admitting that she hijacked the D label to get elected just like the Vt senator.
Roger Moore
@Baud:
I think there’s also an inactivity group. They think as long as we aren’t the ones committing evil, we’re morally in the clear. We can watch and do nothing while someone else commits evil, and we’re morally just fine. But if we do anything that would normally be objectionable to stop the evil, we’re guilty of whatever that morally objectionable thing is. It’s basically an excuse for doing nothing.
schrodingers_cat
@Yarrow: I agree. This politically stupid and counterproductive to the stated goals of the so called progressives.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Yes according to this pretzel logic, expanding NATO is imperialism but actually sending an invading army is not.
Gin & Tonic
@evodevo: I can sort of understand Putin not understanding the strength of Ukrainian resistance: 22 years in power, surrounded by yes-men, you’ll never hear the truth. What I can’t understand is supposedly sophisticated Western “analysts” who say stupid shit like “I am surprised by the strength of their resistance.” That’s just saying “I suck at my job.” Anybody who’s interested could have gone to Ukraine and talked to Ukrainians, but if they are surprised, they didn’t do that basic step. I feel like I’m channeling Kay – “bad at their job.” Ukraine has changed a lot since 2014, and the idea that Ukrainians would welcome Russian troops or roll over for them was laughable – and you could have easily known that.
Ksmiami
@Soonergrunt: I stick by what I said… 100,000 troops wouldn’t be enough to hold Los Angeles let alone a country of 44 million people. It’s obvious that Putin was planning for a strike operation not for a war.
West of the Rockies
@topclimber:
Burn the heretic!
Roger Moore
@JoyceH:
The thing that precipitated the Afghan collapse was their president fleeing the country; the military wasn’t going to bother fighting to protect a government that didn’t have their back. This is a huge reason Zelenskyy is so adamant about staying in Kyiv come what may. He doesn’t want to be the one providing Ukrainian troops an excuse for running away.
Ksmiami
@Gin & Tonic: and they don’t fucking read- anything. I feel like throwing the Bloodlands book at them. We really need a better class of pundits – or maybe just experts instead
Brachiator
@topclimber:
I don’t know what the US, or European nations, could have done to prevent this.
What actual policies do you think might have prevented this? And who could have enforced them?
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
I think today’s experts just use google to get their information.
Maybe wikipedia also if they are particularly hard working.
eclare
@Kay: Totally agree with your take. The whole NATO expansion/security issue was an excuse. That land is the Motherland and rightfully his/Russia’s.
evodevo
@topclimber: Yep…big missed opportunity there…Russia could have been helped toward a socialist democracy, but the Repubs in charge were set on letting the “free markit” sort it all out. So of course what we ended up with was only slightly less than a warlord-controlled kleptocracy, since without rules and someone to enforce them, that’s what you end up with…
Starboard Tack
@topclimber: I knew someone who worked for Gary Hart in the 90s while he was doing business development in Russia. They were looking for Russians with resources and didn’t much care how they came by them
ETA: It wasn’t just Republicans looking for advantages.
Brachiator
@Ksmiami:
When people want to play armchair general, it is only fair to ask for their credentials.
Roger Moore
@schrodingers_cat:
Only the United States has moral agency. Everything else that happens in the world is a response to our actions. Therefore anything bad that happens is ultimately our fault.
Miss Bianca
@germy: “there’s no place in either party for white supremacy and racism”, according to Mittens.
Oh, Mitt. You’re *almost* awake enough to be woke, but you just quit with the both-sides, can you?
matt
@Brachiator: ‘shining city on a hill’ comes from John Winthrop, 1630.
eclare
@Gin & Tonic: I was just thinking that! I texted it to someone yesterday who mentioned plans. Mike Tyson, philosopher.
Sebastian
@Brachiator:
Even more earthshaking, Germany has ended their non-militaristic stance. Going forward, they will participate actively in military action.
Boys and girls, the Deutsche Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe are back.
How’s that for a fucking global surprise.
catclub
anything on the anti-immigration presidents of Poland and Hungary?
Roger Moore
@Brachiator:
One thing the US absolutely did do that helped to set up the kleptocracy in Russia was to advise and help them to sell off all their state assets. Organized crime was the only group in Russia that had any money, so all the big state industries were bought up by criminals. That led directly to where we are today.
scott (the other one)
@LeftCoastYankee: When reading TPM, I almost never check to see who the author of the piece is. But without exception, I find myself going “wha?!” at any point—and by now it’s usually within the first few sentences—it’s a Judis piece. He’s just awful. But at least he’s consistent about it.
IIRC, and I may not, he was a mentor of Josh Marshall’s. I assume loyalty is what keeps him around, since he certainly brings nothing positive to the table.
Jeffro
110% this.
I still can’t figure out why ol’ Jilly hasn’t been publicly shamed and driven under a rock for allying herself with Putin in 2016 + the sham “recounts”
scott (the other one)
@Sebastian: And the rest of the EU seems to be actually pleased about it.
Prometheus Shrugged
@Brachiator: Reagan’s speechwriters got it from John Winthrop and Cotton Mather–it is actually fairly central to the entire history of the U.S.
Kay
@eclare:
It’s that you can’t negotiate by just accepting dishonest terms and going from there. It doesn’t work, not because people don’t “understand” one another, but because you wouldn’t be reaching the real nature of the conflict. They can all “agree” to make it about something and that just won’t matter, if it isn’t about that thing.
You don’t get to define the issue by looking at what you can fix and then announcing that’s the issue. It still won’t be true. Obviously “security” isn’t his paramount issue since he just deliberately tanked his own economy, making every Russian less secure. Does any of this look like someone seeking “security”?
Yarrow
@Sebastian: It’s extraordinary.
Betty Cracker
@topclimber: You won’t get any argument from me on that.
@Yarrow: I think arguably it could be useful to use a high-profile event to slam Republicans for being obstructionists and also to separate “Democrats” as a whole from the 5% or so who who’ve joined Republicans to stymie the president’s popular agenda.
I’m not saying the “rebuttal” speech format following the SOTU address is the best venue for that, but the idea of calling out Democrats who are acting as saboteurs isn’t necessarily dumb or counterproductive. If that message doesn’t get out, the low-info voters who decide elections will conclude that “Dems” as a whole had all the power and couldn’t get it done.
topclimber
@Brachiator: Not pushing austerity 24/7 on a country losing its communist social net. Some real empathy and support for a country that saw male life expectancy decline by five years in a short space of time.
Making sure that any shady deals with US or EURO partners were subject to national security review based on a priority of building up the Russian economy rather than bank bottom lines.
Using the bully pulpit to expose financial shenanigans. Sanctioning shitheads at the start rather than now.
Perhaps those hated lefties out there had some ideas as well.
Sebastian
@scott (the other one):
Yes, because everyone was like “WTF dudes, when are you going to finally come out and carry your weight?”
We’ll see how this turns out in 50 years but for now, it’s good.
MomSense
The giant Jesus in Rio was lit up in Ukrainian flag colors. It gives me a little chuckle to think GG has to look at it.
Betty Cracker
@catclub: Looks like their desire not to be swallowed by Russia next is enough to erase any previous admiration for Putin’s ethnonationalism. I put “populist” is scare quotes because aversion to non-white immigration seems to be the WSJ’s working definition. I think it’s a bit more complicated than that.
Brachiator
@Roger Moore:
I think the question that is being avoided is why US experts, from foreign policy to military, so hideously over-estimated US ability to do state building and military training. Resources just seemed to be squandered.
And I note that when Russia occupied the country, they had problems maintaining and supporting their puppet regime.
Yarrow
@Betty Cracker: It’s a nice theory but I disagree that it can work in practice. For low info normies it’ll just create a question like, “Why can’t Biden get his party to vote the way he wants?” It makes him look weak. It shouldn’t but it will, with plenty of assistance from Republicans and the media.
There are ways of singling them out but a high profile speech after their own party’s President’s SOTU address during a time of very high tensions with a dangerous enemy state and a hot war in Europe is not it. It’s very bad politics. Dumb.
Gin & Tonic
@MomSense: I saw a pic of the Statue of Liberty getting a blue & yellow sash.
Ukraine has won the PR war, that’s for sure.
West of the Cascades
Any analysis of how many of these 31 Democrats are either in safe-D seats or were redistricted into newly-safe-R seats? I’d think that either of those scenarios doesn’t affect the overall Democratic chances at hanging on to the House.
Boris Rasputin (the evil twin)
@Baud: But you run one! Isn’t BAUD! 20XX! a cult, or is it a Jackal hobby horse?
Captain C
@John Revolta:
What she’s really saying.
SamIAm
@Yarrow:
You’d rather the ‘democratic centralism’ of the Republican party?
Voicing criticism shouldn’t be a sin. The Biden administration has demonstrated it’s compromised of adults. I’m sure they’ll take it in stride, note valid concerns and push back on any bullshit
Roger Moore
@Brachiator:
IMO, we got an overinflated idea of what we could do when we helped in Germany and Japan after WWII. Those were places that already accepted our idea of a state and just needed help reestablishing one after we had destroyed the old one. But that isn’t really what we were doing in Iraq and (especially) Afghanistan. They haven’t 100% bought into our conception of what a state is, and getting the populace to do that is the single most important part of building one. We haven’t really figured out how to sell people on the idea of wanting to live in our concept of a state, and until we do, state building is going to be a disappointment.
SamIAm
@Brachiator:
Agreed, Manchin and Sinema are fully responsible.
West of the Cascades
@Boris Rasputin (the evil twin): Baud/Zelenskiy 2024!
Betty Cracker
@Yarrow: Low info normies are already asking that question and concluding that Biden must be weak because he can’t get more shit done even though his party controls congress. Calling out the actual flies in the ointment is one way to challenge that conclusion. I’m open to other ideas, but pretending that it isn’t already what people already think isn’t a strategy. All that said, I agree this venue wasn’t ideal last week, and it’s particularly problematic now given the shit going down in Ukraine.
Brachiator
@topclimber:
The former Soviet republics were neither babies nor helpless. The US were not occupiers, and there were no powerful free-market carpetbaggers descending on hapless Russians and imposing their will.
People on the ground at the time talk about former heads of state units seizing the opportunity to take control of assets that they formerly administered and become oligarchs. Others fought and bribed their way to power.
The former Soviets had the example of the slow, sometimes painful process by which Germany integrated the East into their social and financial system.
And yeah, there was no organization like Lefty Socialism R US to shepherd the former Soviet Union into a socialist nirvana, they had trained and educated economists who could have worked with European counterparts.
The US did not have control over the economy of the former Soviet Union.
Granted, they may have screwed it up if they did.
catclub
High profile? I haz my doubts.
geg6
@topclimber:
And please explain exactly what the US should have done to stop Russia from becoming a kleptocracy. And show your work.
Kay
@eclare:
I’ve been following voting rights and election administration for a long time. Republicans have been claiming voter fraud for a long time. I thought the claims were irrational and based not on poor election adminsitration practices but instead on racism and a propensity to believe bad things about AA people and immigrants. But no one wants to address those problems so instead we pretended they had good faith concerns about “security” and for 20 years Republicans passed laws adding security hoops to voting.
How has that worked out? They are more paranoid now than they were before we put in all the election security- voter ID laws, ect. There are many, many more Republicans in Ohio who claim voter fraud than there were before 2006, when Ohio put in voter ID. Millions more.
Because “security” was never their problem. It’s what we chose to fix and we could all agree on it but it didn’t fix the Republican obsession with voter fraud and it never will. That’s not their issue with voting.
Brachiator
@Roger Moore:
Afghanistan for a long time has been some disconnected cities and tribal areas with their own strong rules and customs. Hell, Pakistan has not been able to tame, domesticate or bring in line some tribal territories within their national borders.
Each nation presents their own sets of problems. I don’t see that the US ever understood Afghanistan. Failing that, no nation building could ever succeed.
And I don’t think it was simply the example of devastated Europe at play.
The US could not prop up a corrupt South Vietnam. But we could prop up a corrupt, but competent Taiwan and South Korea.
Indonesia and the Philippines have been mixed stories.
Iraq was stable under Saddam although that came at a huge, unsupportable cost.
This is a key issue that you raise. But the obvious retort is that no nation is bound to buy our bullshit.
And if we are willfully ignorant of a nation’s own sense of itself, we dangerously throw money down a rat hole and only add to instability.
Bill Arnold
@Yarrow:
Very very important point. If Putin is toppled, those who have been compromised by him may feel freer to talk.
Morzer
@Suzanne: Dreher’s basically Vladimir Putin with a column and no nukes. He’s got the art of writing Letters To Himself From Reasonable Bigots down pat. I am pretty sure he’s going to fire on Fort Sumter in self-defense one of these days.
Ruckus
@NotMax:
I’m thinking that anyone in their even half right mind would not say a word if it was in say, a cloak room, or possibly on the back wall of the Secret Service shooting range.
Morzer
@Kay: Seems to me that voter fraud was always a proxy for “society is changing and I want to get off”.
glc
@cope: Ok. Maybe the people who have been telling us how brilliant he is will have something to say as well.
It’s this guy (wearing a shirt): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngwH6Zy5vb8&t=30s
Bonus: tax refugee and man of the people Depardieu at 1:50.
At the moment all I’ll predict is that the U.S. (specifically) is not going to get into a nuclear war or be hit by an asteroid this year. If I’m wrong, it won’t be the first time. I could tell you my predictions from 2016. (Actually, if you’re in the prediction business and never wrong, you’re probably doing something wrong or illegal.)
Geminid
@West of the Cascades: Some of the retiring Democratic Representatives, like Steve Cohen of Louisville Kentucky, are in safer districts. Democrats have done pretty well recruiting good candidates these past few years, and I think that we will do well in contested districts even without whatever value incumbency brings these days.
We will lose at least two more incumbents in primaries. In Georgia, Lucy McGrath is competing with Carolyn Bordeaux for the 6th Disyrict nomination. And in Chicagoland, Marie Newman and Sean Casten are competing in the same district. Both districts are considered fairly safely Democratic.
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
I am not going to slam this speech in advance. But I would hope that they reinforce Biden’s message. If they slam Republicans, I will be happy. If they whine and complain that they should be listened to, they will waste just waste time. If they try to boost their own candidate choices for the mid-terms, I don’t know. Might be interesting.
In any event, I think that most people may turn off the SOTU address as soon as it is done, assuming that there is much of an audience for this in the first place.
Otherwise, the GOP rebuttal and any other Democratic Party address, is for the benefit of the pundits and political strategists, who will twist it and use it as they will.
But otherwise, I wish them well and hope that their efforts help the Democrats.
Morzer
@West of the Cascades: I need to review Baud’s credentials as a Paddington voicer.
catclub
agreed, also where do you rate this job compared to the actual US highest priority of keeping nukes relatively safe. How many of those resources should be sacrificed?
Ruckus
@Ohio Mom:
I thin vova (hat tip to zhena) was better at calculating risk not all that long ago, but he’s gotten over it. If he is declining, as he appears, he might not have a large amount of time left and I think he wants to go out as the biggest bad ass of all time. Given the country he grew up in and now seems to own, that seems to be rather normal of most of it’s leaders in the last say, 100, or maybe even 400+ yrs.
Calouste
@Roger Moore: Germany becoming a single state from a whole lot of separate kingdoms, duchies, and assorted other entities, took about 70 years, at least 8 wars, and a couple of revolutions. About the same for Italy.
Yarrow
@SamIAm: Sure, people can criticize the Biden administration. The question is whether it’s good politics and is it going politics for her to do it at the stated time. I think it’s terrible politics.
It’s not about me wanting “democratic centrism” or whatever term you choose to label it. It’s about whether an action furthers a goal or not. This speech at this time doesn’t further the goal of helping retain or increase the Senate majority, help keep the House or help pass the bill. It’s just dumb posturing. I don’t know what her goal is but it’s not any of the above goals.
Roger Moore
@Brachiator:
My feeling is that we make a terrible mistake by confusing “nation” and “state”. In Europe, and to a lesser but substantial extent in the European settler states, we have tried to align the boundaries of nations (people with a common language and history) with the boundaries of states (administrative units that have sovereignty). It’s imperfect, as problems like Northern Ireland and the Basque country show, and where it has been successful it has been a long bloody slog to get there.
Outside of Europe, it’s much spottier. There are some nation states, like Japan, but most places that were former colonies aren’t anything close. It’s not an unfortunate accident that the lines on the map don’t have any relation to the ethnic groups living there. The colonial powers deliberately split powerful ethnic groups and combined different groups into single colonies as part of a policy of divide and rule. Those former colonies may be states, but very few of them are nations.
dr. luba
@schrodingers_cat:
But, don’t you know, it’s just a small incursion in the Donbas. At least that’s what a QAnon-addled woman was arguing at us today in my Ukrainian Recipes FB group. The MSM is lying, there isn’t any bombing, al the videos are fakes.
After all Putin Is the great white christianist anti-LGBTQ hope, their modern racist messiah.
And this is someone who claims Ukrainian heritage.
QAnon rots the brain.
Yarrow
@Betty Cracker: And having a speech right after the SOTU by a Democrat saying “Some Democrats are BAD!” isn’t going to confuse normies and those who don’t follow politics? How are they supposed to know which Democrats are good and which aren’t? It’s confusing! They must all be the same. Both sides!
GAH. It’s just so dumb.
Yarrow
@catclub: It’s fairly high profile to speak on the SOTU night. Moreso than talking to the Rotary Club or somesuch.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: I’ll want to see exactly who Reprentative Tlaib calls out. It could just be two obstructionist Senators. It might also be the nine Blue Dogs who signed onto Gottheimer’s nefarious letter. Tlaib is hardly going to call out the 88 fellow members of Progressive Caucus who voted for the Infrastructure bill as a stand-alone measure, but she may try to tag the the other 110 members who voted for the bill as a problem. I guess I’ll find out Tuesday night.
Betty Cracker
@Brachiator: Agree 100% with those points. From Tlaib’s few comments, I expect she’ll slam Republicans, praise Biden and criticize by name the handful of Dems who are obstructing the party’s agenda. I also hope she avoids whining about how the progressive caucus should have been listened to, but pointing out the fact that they’ve been team players overall wouldn’t be out of line, IMO. It’ll probably be as noticeable as a fart in a whirlwind in any case, but I’d be very surprised if she spring a treacherous plot to undermine her own caucus. It’s not in her interest to do so.
dr. luba
@Gin & Tonic: In 2014 the Ukrainian military was a mess. Yanukovych had starved it and made i weak and useless, at Putin’s command.
When Russia invaded in 2014, and Poroshenko became president, he poured a lot of money, including his own, into rebuilding the military. It became professional and well trained. They have been trained by US military (including a Marine friend of mine) and have been working with NATO troops for years.
Also, I don’t know if it’s been brought up here, but 17% of the Ukrainian military is female. BTW, Herodotus’ “Amazons” were apparently Ukrainian Scythian women warriors…..
Ruckus
@Joey Maloney:
That would defiantly not be sprucing it up….
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Yarrow: I’m inclined to think it will get drowned out by more pressing matters, but it’s a stupid, attention-seeking stunt, and that seems to be what that wing is about.
Betty Cracker
@Yarrow: Not going to defend the venue again because I’ve already made it clear I find it problematic, but if it’s GAH SO DUMB to try to explain to normies what’s actually happening, what’s a better strategy? Because just waiting for the oncoming shellacking seems pretty goddamned dumb to me.
Brachiator
@Roger Moore:
I don’t really disagree with you, but only note that a lot of this was settled long before the US ever existed.
Within our lifetimes, long term problem areas have been Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Gibraltar, Yugoslavia and a few other places in Europe. Hong Kong and various places in the middle east have had issues. The problems here resist easy solutions.
And of course, Kashmir, Hong Kong, and Sri Lanka.
And in Sri Lanka, ultimately, the opposition was crushed.
I think that it is more about whether a nation had been a colony. Vietnam had a sense of its own destiny. The north seized on it and ultimately expanded to include South Vietnam.
Afghanistan had never been anybody’s colony. And previous native rulers had brought stability to the region. I think that rulers of Afghanistan were able to later expand into India.
We have some smart people at State and other places. But some idiots also who believe that they can impose beneficent will on countries without understanding what those countries want and whether they have indigenous customs and beliefs that are compatible with our values.
eclare
@Kay: Bad analogy, but it’s like Hannibal telling Clarice, “what is the essence of the thing?”
“He kills women.”
“No! That’s the symptom!”
They do not want POC to vote. Start with that
ETA> I appreciate your comments, and I hope you don’t think I’m being flippant.
topclimber
@geg6:
Try 132 for starters.
Ruckus
@topclimber:
We don’t have to look across the oceans to see that the monetary elite runs many countries. Including this one. We have those on our side who could/should be included in a list of the monetary elite. Money is a hell of a drug. It takes a minimum amount to exist in the modern world and yet in most cases it is a drastic poison if taken in too large a dose.
Roger Moore
@Calouste:
Sure, and they even agreed on the same concept of what a “state” was. The process of forming modern France was even slower and bloodier, at least in part because we were still deciding what a state was as this was happening. Getting the people of Iraq or Afghanistan to be part of the same state doesn’t mean just merging a bunch of separate states. It involves convincing the people living there that they should be part of a state. It’s not an easy process!
Brachiator
@Roger Moore:
RE: Germany becoming a single state from a whole lot of separate kingdoms, duchies, and assorted other entities, took about 70 years, at least 8 wars, and a couple of revolutions.
I am not sure that this is entirely true. Or just more complicated. For some reason I was bored and recently watched a YouTube video about how Prussia ultimately got absorbed into Germany, and how it included and lost various independent components.
The notion of “nation” and “state” was seemed to be very complicated.
And I think you or someone may have noted that Italy still is unsettled and has difficulty forming a government.
sab
@dr. luba: Amazons were Scythian women warriors? That is so cool. So they have been at this for at least 2500 years
ETA But weren’t Scythians more Persian? But Ukraine has a long and complicated ethnic history. Another melting pot area.
leeleeFL
@cope: just go find another blog to bother!
Omnes Omnibus
@Brachiator: The city on a hill image goes back to Matthew 5:13. The image has been used by Augustine, John Winthrop, and JFK before Reagan used it
Betty Cracker
@Ruckus: You’re not wrong there. Hell, we let a foreign oligarch create a 24/7 propaganda network affiliated with one of our two major political parties and stood by and normalized it as it morphed into a pro-authoritarian agitprop outlet that has seriously undermined our democracy.
Ruckus
@Gin & Tonic:
I’ve never been there and I knew it. I didn’t know the level but had an idea. So yes I am a bit stunned by the Ukraine response of the regular people to this but not as much as some.
My thoughts on this entire mess is that I suspect vova is getting on with some medical condition, which could just be age and vova is only approx 2 yrs younger than me. (From Oct 2015 to Oct 2019, 15 people I knew personally died. Only one of them was older than me at the time, and only by one year. The average age in the US of people born the year I was live to is 84. Some have to be younger than that to make it an average) I think he sees his glory going away and his character – pompous arrogant better than anyone else fuck – gives him no room to compromise or back off. Especially if he’s got asshole senioritis, that lingering doubt that your history shows an acceptable life lived.
sdhays
@Brachiator: Dead thread, but I remember reading somewhere that former Communist eastern European countries were assisted by European experts, while Russia was assisted by American experts and the American experts gave much more ideologically strict advice rather than trying to work with what Russia had.
I believe that’s at least where the criticism comes from. Knowing America in the 90’s (and having seen what we did in Iraq after the invasion), it’s at least plausible.
Ruckus
@Betty Cracker:
There is more than one way to conquer a country. Hell it’s possible there are more than 2 ways….
The old fashioned way is being shown in Ukraine right now, although it looks like a rather half assed attempt – which seems like someone with an ego as big as all outdoors – vova, might think as more than enough, while over here, separated by a lot of water, his other strength, underhanded understated, ratfucking bullshit, seems to actually be more effective.
Roger Moore
@sab:
No. The Persians were from central Iran. They weren’t actually from Mesopotamia proper, but they were tied into the whole Mesopotamian culture. The Scythians were more or less the prototypical steppe people. They both relied heavily on mounted warriors rather than infantry, but that’s where the similarity stopped.
Geminid
@sab: The Scythians lived north of the Black Sea, while the Persians lived to the southeast. Sometime after he founded the Persian-Medean empire (~550 BCE), Cyrus the Great was killed in a northern campaign against the Scythians.
Brachiator
@sdhays:
Great addition. You may very well be right about this.
But I still do not buy that the Russians were helpless babes who fell into oligarchy because we hit them too hard with free market advice.
But if this were the case, I guess it would underscore what an empty, useless ideology Marxism must be. All that furious theorizing could not prevent some two bit American free market weasels from turning Russia into a kleptocracy.
That is some serious irony.
sab
@Omnes Omnibus: The City on a Hill was a New England concept. The South did not care about that at all, probably hostile to it. And the Mid-Atlantic colonies had’t learned English yet and were concerned with other things.
Yarrow
@Betty Cracker: My observation is that normies don’t really understand or know what’s really going on at a very basic level. Trying to explain the nuances of “Democrats are good, but these two Democrats are causing problems” to them isn’t going to work. When you’re explaining you’re losing.
I tend to agree with Jim above that it’s going to get drowned out by other events so this is a good opportunity to let it go and just not explain anything. Speaking of other events, the Ukraine situation may present an unique opportunity politically. It might get some of the Russian money out of the Republican funding machine. It’s also a great opportunity to make Republicans own their shit. “Republicans don’t love America. They love Russia.” There are a zillion examples of it. Take back the flag and patriotism from them. Talk about Biden as a “strong, respected leader, working with allies to defeat our long time enemy.” Get Democrats repeating that message. “Democrats support American ideals. Republicans support Putin.” People gravitate toward strength and leadership. They vote for it. That’s a way better use of everyone’s time than talking about how “these Democrats are good but these others aren’t so good.”
Geminid
@Geminid: Correction: Cyrus the Great of Persia was killed in a campaign against the Massagetae, not the Scythians. The Massagetae may have been related to the Scythians, who lived to their west.
Soonergrunt
@Ksmiami: It looks like he intended to collapse the Ukrainian government, install a puppet regime, and get out, probably leaving a garrison force of around 50K to 100K.
He didn’t count on the Ukrainian army holding together or the people standing with their government.