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Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

The GOP couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Happy indictment week to all who celebrate!

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

White supremacy is terrorism.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

After roe, women are no longer free.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / The War for Ukraine Update 6: As Dawn Breaks, Ukraine and Her Defenders Are Battered, But Holding

The War for Ukraine Update 6: As Dawn Breaks, Ukraine and Her Defenders Are Battered, But Holding

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I’m going to keep this rather short tonight as I’m completely wiped from picking up large boxes, moving them, reorganizing the space they were in, and then moving them back.

As has been the case for the past several days, the Russians increase their operational attack tempo as dawn approaches.

And this just in!

The miles long column of Russian armor is also still slowly making its way towards Kyiv.

This convoy makes no sense. It is out in the open, moving slowly, and completely exposed. From what I understand from the reporting it has no real support behind it. And so far the Ukrainians are not just making bombing run after bombing run at it with their air force or bayraktar drones. I’m beginning to wonder if the Ukrainians have intelligence indicating that the convoy is partially intended as bait to draw their fighters out where the Russian Air Force assets that have not been used very much so far can just engage them. Whatever the reason for its movement and for the Ukrainians seeming to just leave it alone, it is slowly making its way towards Kyiv. Eventually it will have to be dealt with. And given how the Ukrainians have operated so far, I expect they have a plan for doing so.

Putin has now decided to saber rattle at every state that is supplying or resupplying Ukraine with weapons.

And, of course, he’s decided to just start indiscriminately hammer targets in Ukraine, which many, if not most of us, knew was coming. As a result, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) announced earlier today that he had enough probable cause to open an investigation into Russia for committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine and that he was doing so.

Ukraine’s ambassador to the UN continues to kick ass!

Read the English transcript of that young Russian Soldiers last communication with his mother. The young Russian Soldiers killed or wounded in this war, many of them conscripts that had no idea this is what they were going to be ordered to do, are going to be victims just like untold number of Ukrainians.

And the feral Chechen fighters may be back. The Ukrainians have reported that after they blowed up the warlord that Kadyrov sent to lead them, as well as a good number of the Chechen fighters themselves, the rest fled back to Chechnya. Kadyrov has released this video indicating otherwise. Or maybe he’s sending more.

We have some clarity on the transfer of fighter jets from EU states to Ukraine:

Ukrainian pilots have arrived in Poland to start the process of taking control of fighter planes they expect to be donated by European countries, a Ukrainian government official told POLITICO.

It’s not clear just yet what countries are donating the jets, but European Union security chief Josep Borrell pledged over the weekend that the EU would fund the transfer the fighter planes from multiple countries.

Borrell walked that back slightly on Monday, acknowledging that any transfers wouldn’t come from the EU itself, but would instead be donated “bilaterally” by individual EU countries.

Representatives from the Polish and Slovakian governments did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov on Monday said he had rejected the request.

Poland and Slovakia still fly Russian-made planes similar to those used by the Ukrainian air force, meaning the pilots would not need much training if the planes were transferred.

In a move likely aimed at increasing pressure on Europe to act, the Ukrainian parliament on Monday tweeted that Europe was sending 70 fighter planes to Ukraine, including 28 MiG-29s from Poland, 12 from Slovakia and 16 from Bulgaria, along with 14 Su-25s from Bulgaria.

The fighter plane drama came on top of a flurry of announcements over the weekend that saw European leaders promise a flood of new weaponry for the Ukrainian military to assist in fighting off invading Russian troops, an overt and very public acknowledgment of Europe’s newfound will to inflict pain on the Kremlin for its military adventurism.

Everyone clear now? Good!

The White House has made it clear there won’t be a NATO no fly zone. I understand why. I understand why it is the right strategic decision. As you all know I disagree with it in principle, though recognize why the decision has to be made in practice. Frankly, this is one of those places where national values runs headlong into realpolitik and for the time being realpolitik has to win out.

A number of states, including some surprising ones, have joined the economic reprisals package against Russia. Japan, Singapore, Monaco, and Switzerland are among them. The latter two are the big surprises. Disney has indicated it isn’t going to release any movies in Russia while they are reinvading Ukraine and Netflix told the Russian media regulator to pound sand rather than agree to stream the Russian state tv channels as part of its Russia service that the regulator was requiring. The Russian economy is a mess and it has been announced that the Russian stock market will remain closed on Tuesday. Because that’ll keep it from crashing…

I want to draw everyone’s attention to two excellent threads. The first is the best political-military (pol-mil), defense enterprise/logistics, and socio-cultural analysis of what’s going on I’ve seen so far! And given that the former and the latter are both my professional bread and butter, that’s saying a lot. Just an excellent, exceedingly excellent, very excellent piece of analysis.

The second is a very thorough, in depth analysis of an article mistakenly run by RIA Novosti on 26 February that was supposed to be a self congratulatory victory lap. The thread provides a pretty interesting window into how what the Russians are doing is being presented if not perceived in Russia.

And to finish off a bit of levity:

You want the Tik-Tok video in the second tweet in the thread, not the Alex Jones meme in the first.

I think I’m in love!

Now here’s something you don’t normally see at bar and bat mitzvahs and Jewish weddings! Perhaps at a bris…

And if you’re looking for other ways to support Ukraine and Ukrainians, perhaps a little shopping?

There’s a full description of their operations at the site/storefront including their registration as a Canadian charity. I’ve emailed them to get sizing information as what they have on the site doesn’t make sense, I’ll report back what I find out. I want to order a couple of shirts, but I need to make sure that the XXLs are actually XXLs.

Depending on how things go tomorrow, I want to spend at least part of the update post talking about something I’m not seeing a lot of reporting on, but that I’m sure someone is planning: the need for a humanitarian assistance airlift of food, potable water, and other non-munition, non-weapon supplies into Ukraine. Think the Berlin Airlift, but sized way, way up!

ETA: I’ve removed the Andrew Feinberg tweet as it was inaccurate as to the source of the explosion and slightly revised the text regarding indiscriminate Russian targeting.

 

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

133Comments

  1. 1.

    Patricia Kayden

    To every Republican who’s now tweeting #StandWithUkraine after being totally fine with a sociopathic septuagenarian extorting their President by dangling lifesaving military aid in exchange for a bogus investigation- we see you.We have not forgotten what you did.And never will.— Jo ? (@JoJoFromJerz) February 28, 2022

  2. 2.

    Patricia Kayden

    Thanks for your coverage, Adams. I’m still in shock that Putin did this. He is now a war criminal. He needs to suffer severe consequences for what he has done to Ukraine.

  3. 3.

    Jinchi

    Everyone clear now? Good!

    Wouldn’t 70 new fighters roughly double the size of the Ukrainian airforce?​

  4. 4.

    Jerzy Russian

    That text from the Russian soldier to his mother is and the circumstances surrounding it are fucked up six ways to Sunday.

     

    That video of those 4 guys playing the piano with their johnsons is all kinds of awesome.

  5. 5.

    SectionH

    Thank you so much Adam for another really excellent post. All of it, but I think you left best until last. As in what is the best thing the US can do? YES.

  6. 6.

    Another Scott

    Sitting here, ~ 5000 miles away, I have no special knowledge. But maybe the tens of miles long tank convoy is not moving much because they can’t.

    Bizarre — another bunch of armoured #Russia vehicles just left abandoned in #Ukraine. No sign of any fighting, troops just up & left. ?‍♂️pic.twitter.com/kU67m6hSPL

    — Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) March 1, 2022

    (via VladDavidzon)

    Ultimately, soldiers have to consent to the mission. If they don’t, then seemingly nonsensical things happen.

    Is that what’s happening here? No idea. But, …

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  7. 7.

    Sandia Blanca

    Thank you, Adam, for this “rather short” briefer. The updates on the convoy have been all over the place–how long it is, how dangerous it is, etc., but yours is the first comment I’ve seen about it possibly being a ruse or a lure. I certainly hope the Ukrainians have something up their sleeve.

  9. 9.

    Carlo Graziani

    I would still like reassurance that some kind of counterbattery capability — rocketry, artillery, radar-spotted, drone-based, anything — is on the way. The Russian MO  for taking cities is by artillery. They don’t know any other way. And they are nearly at Kyev. I’ve seen a shit-ton of anti-tank and anti-aircraft rocket assistance, but so far as I can see only the Czechs have given them mortars, and no real cannon at all. I think that something bad is about to happen.

  11. 11.

    Mallard Filmore

    Most of the reporting comes from the northern area. How is the situation in the south doing?

  12. 12.

    Lyrebird

    Thank you Adam!
    The Kyiv Independent didn’t do an updates page today,
    maybe operations were too interrupted.

    Appreciate your insights and links.

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    @SectionH: Keep the pressure on, make sure resupply across all types of needs including food, water, medicine, etc is met, making sure our allies don’t start wavering. And be ready to actually fight should they become necessary.

  16. 16.

    HumboldtBlue

    @Another Scott: 

    I’m increasingly seeing similar photos and short videos of abandoned equipment. The consent angle is particularly apt here because of the very close social and historical ties Ukrainians share with Russians. Kharkiv is a Russian city for fuck’s sake. I wonder just how many Russian soldiers are willing to die for Putin on this one.

  17. 17.

    Argiope

    Thank you Adam.  I’ve stayed up way past my bedtime waiting for this to drop nightly because it’s by far the best roundup of information I’ve found.  I long for simpler times, when Zelenskyy and his musical schlong had nothing much to worry about. I’m sure he does, too, or would if he had the time.  A man for all seasons.  I do think we could use a Ukraine donations sound-off post to inspire each other.  Maybe some St Javelin stickers?

  18. 18.

    patroclus

    Maybe it’s the fog of war, but I don’t really believe that they were playing the piano with their manhoods.  I think they were merely appearing to do so…

    Thanks for that Thomas de Waal thread.

  19. 19.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Carlo Graziani: I’m worried because the Russians have a ton of artillery lined up around Ukraine’s borders, but haven’t been using it. According to their doctrine, they should have been pounding the Ukrainians with them for the past six days. No one is quite sure why they haven’t been. Same with why the bulk of the fighter jets, bomber, and attack choppers aren’t being used.

    I’ll try to remember to look up Ukraine’s artillery situation tomorrow.

  20. 20.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mallard Filmore: I think I saw a report from early this morning that the Russians blew up a Ukrainian port on the Sea of Azov, but the town adjacent was holding.

  22. 22.

    Adam L Silverman

    This just in:

  23. 23.

    Adam L Silverman

    This was supposed to be a reply to Mallard Filmore. The damn reply glitch is back!

    Here you go:

  25. 25.

    frosty

    Thanks for these posts Adam. I saw the texts from the Russian soldier to his mom this morning and I broke down. Fuck Putin for this as well as the war crimes and Ukrainians killed.

  26. 26.

    BeautifulPlumage

    I read the Galeev thread earlier and it really helped me understand military issues. Great for the uninitiated like me.

    Thank you Adam. As always, I learn so much in your posts.

  27. 27.

    Leto

    Video of the interview at the link. It was an MSNBC interview from this morning: Jen Psaki Shuts Down Potential ‘No-Fly Zone’ in Ukraine: The U.S. Is ‘Not Going to Have a Military War with Russia’

    Psaki then confirmed that Biden does not support creating a no-fly zone in Ukraine by putting U.S. troops in the air above the country.

    “What that would require is implementation by the U.S. military. It would essentially mean the U.S. military would be shooting down planes, Russian planes. That is definitely escalatory. That would potentially put us in a place in a military conflict with Russia,” Psaki said of a no-fly zone. “That is not something the president wants to do.”

    Realpolitik wins out on this one because as Jen says, this would put us in direct conflict with Russia and would lead to a major escalation. Though I agree with Adam on this wrt national values. Glad we have clear eyed Joe in charge.

  28. 28.

    Captain C

    It occurs to me that perhaps even VVP is not immune to the axiom that everything TFG touches turns to shit.

  29. 29.

    Lyrebird

    @patroclus: Yeah I was considering this video to be possible, but not the Hava Nagila one, especially not the glissando at the end.  but I hesitated to say, as I don’t have the right parts to have ever tried that.

    Zelenskiy is still amazing, though, no question!

  30. 30.

    Miss Bianca

    I read that Russian article earlier today. Before I sign off for bed, I find myself wondering how our homegrown Nazis who embrace Russians as their white supremacist brothers would react to knowing that at least some Russians appear to regard “Anglo Saxons” with the same scathing contempt as the Nazis did…well…Slavs.

    Might blow their little minds.

  31. 31.

    Leto

    @frosty: I’ve seen videos of these poor captured conscripted teens who are being yelled at by Ukrainians, and the kids are basically saying the same thing that poor kid texted his mom. They were all lied to. Putin lied to them, saying they’d be welcomed as liberators (sound familiar?), their parents are beside themselves, and I hope they drag his sorry ass to the Hague to stand trial.

  32. 32.

    Captain C

    @Another Scott: More troops saying ‘Fuck this shit, I ain’t killing my fellow Slavs, Mama raised me right!” I would hope.  The paranoid part of me wonders if they’re radio tagged and the Russians are using them as bait to find Ukrainian positions, but even if it worked that would seem like a bad waste of military assets.

  33. 33.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Leto:

    I’ll write more about this in the next couple of days, but given what I’ve seen of Putin’s demands and the indiscriminate targeting, I’m very worried this could turn into an attempt at genocide. Especially if Putin gets his theater strategy sorted out. If it goes that way, I think some difficult choices have to be made by the US and our NATO and EU and non-EU allies.

  34. 34.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Adam L Silverman: I am pleasantly surprised.  The YouTube video of non-experts talking suggested that marching north to split Ukraine was progressing.  I guess if the situation was serious we all would know by now.

    I am also pleasantly surprised that there have been NO uncontrolled breakthroughs by the Russian army.

  35. 35.

    Captain C

    @Adam L Silverman: Is it possible that some commanders with more sense than Putin are slow-walking it because they know how images of Russian artillery smashing the birthplace of the Rus won’t play well on anyone’s screen?

  36. 36.

    Leto

    Sergej [email protected]

    Russia says it will pay 11,000 Rubel (about USD 104.-) to the families of fallen Russian soldiers.

    7:57 PM · Feb 28, 2022

    Julia [email protected]

    A) I thought Russia had no casualties.
    B) 11,000 rubles was not a lot before the sanctions, but I wonder if Russian mothers think the lives of their sons are worth $95

    8:08 PM · Feb 28, 2022

  37. 37.

    JohnC

    How would NATO set up a no-fly zone without needing to shoot down Russian aircraft? And if NATO shoots down Russian aircraft, how does that not escalate by quick stages to a nuclear holocaust?

  39. 39.

    Lyrebird

    @Adam L Silverman: @Adam L Silverman:

    By all that is good, I hope the financial squeeze helps.  I believe the Ukrainians will win in the end, but the longer that takes, the more lives are cut short.  I don’t see the tyrant willingly stopping unless his cronies make the decision to stop the war.

  40. 40.

    Leto

    @Adam L Silverman: I’ve heard the reporting that he’s adjusting his plans based upon reality, and from what we’re starting to see now, moving on cities as well as more attacks on residential areas, that’s a very real concern.

  43. 43.

    Roger Moore

    @Adam L Silverman:

    My immediate assumption is that the Russians aren’t blowing the shit out of Ukraine because they want to keep it.  Yes, they’ll blow the shit out of it if they have to, but they’d really rather not destroy the cities they intend to occupy.

  45. 45.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Leto: My worry is this will become, for Putin, an “If I can’t have Ukraine, no one can scenario.”

  46. 46.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mj_Oregon: Where we’re you when I was writing the post?

    Thanks for posting the correct info. I’ve deleted the Feinberg tweet, revised the text, and placed a notation that I’ve done so and why.

  50. 50.

    Jinchi

    @Adam L Silverman: My worry is this will become, for Putin, an “If I can’t have Ukraine, no one can scenario.”

    That’s my thought too. Putin probably hoped he could simply roll into Ukraine, assassinate all the political leaders and keep all their stuff. He’s gotten pretty petulant since getting stalled outside the cities and is probably furious that Zelenskyy gets to strut around like a local hero.

    And he’s basically told the rest of the world that he’ll burn everything to the ground if they dare oppose him. I’m not looking forward to his reaction if his economy collapses and he still doesn’t have his flag flying over Kyiv. If he gets pushed out, he’ll want to leave nothing but embers behind.

  52. 52.

    Kalakal

    That thread by Galeev is excellent. Thank you for that and all your posts. It helps explain something that has been puzzling me ( and I know publically available information is both limited and often plain wrong ) is how incoherent the Russian invasion has been. Piecemeal assaults by unsupported units, units scattered all over being picked off, logistical failures. That convoy. It seems all over the place, leading to far higher losses. I fear mass grinding bombardment with horrendous civilian casualties will be the next phase.

  54. 54.

    West of the Rockies

    Adam, your unflagging effort, candor, and deep knowledge are a goddamned treasure here, seriously.  Thank you.

  55. 55.

    Hellbastard

    Wondering why no bombers are being offered. They simply don’t have any or they are concerned that would be too much of a provocation?

  56. 56.

    LadySuzy

    @Leto: Gaspard Kasparov:  the more you wait to stop him, the more costly it will be.

    Is not escalating now something the West will regret down the road ?

    The whole world is on edge and praying for the Ukrainians. People are emotionally invested and would be willing to make economic sacrifices for Ukraine. There’s incredible momentum with harsh sanctions from countries, private companies.

    If Russia takes Ukraine, yes there will be resistance afterwards.. But the whole world will be crushed. The momentum we have right now will fade. Will countries hold firm on the harsh economic sanctions ?  And if some countries, companies, banks, don’t hold firm, how long will it take for the Ukrainians to be liberated ?

    And now we have war crimes. Bombing of a civilian population with horrific weapons.

    Letting cities being bombed without defending them is not the right message to send to a war criminal. Letting a bully win is not the right message to send either.

    Escalation ? There WILL BE escalation anyway eventually. There’s a part of me who feels that this madness should be killed right now. Unless there is intelligence that says that there is a very, very, real possibility that Putin will launch ballistic missiles on European cities, or worse, a nuclear weapon.

    Every option is pretty horrible. I am absolutely heartbroken and very very worried.

  57. 57.

    West of the Rockies

    Again, I hope that very soon the 1/6 Committee begins releasing incriminating material to shut the Trumplings up and render them politically neutered.  We don’t need their sideline sniping during this conflict.  MTG and Gosar, etc., need to be metaphorically gutted.

  58. 58.

    Morzer

    @Adam L Silverman: Putin certainly gives the impression of not having much rationality left in him. Maybe it’s all a big bluff, but I am not at all sure of that. I get the strong impression that if nobody in Russia intervenes, we are going to see horrendous war crimes, attempted genocide and even nuclear weapons unleashed as things get worse for Putin. It’s very clear that the Russian economy is about to go down for the count and Putin’s war is unpopular to put it mildly. How far will Putin go to save his skin and, for that matter, his self-image as a great and powerful savior of Holy Mother Russia?  Fiona Hill thinks Putin would use nuclear weapons and she knows him as well as anyone:

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

  59. 59.

    Morzer

    @Fair Economist: It’s going to get more insulting as the ruble collapses further. At some point we will be talking about how many wheelbarrows bereaved parents need to collect their worthless compensation.

  60. 60.

    RaflW

    @Roger Moore: That’s been my thought as well. But as Russia and very much in particular Putin look weak and foolish, the urge – as Adam worried – to shift to indiscriminate destruction and atrocities rises.

  62. 62.

    Martin

    @Carlo Graziani: We seem to be pouring light anti-armor and anti-air weapons into Ukraine. Shoulder mounted stuff. Requires you get a bit more up close and personal, but what I’m reading suggests there’s enough flowing into Ukraine to match Russias air and armor numbers. Whether Ukraine can hold well enough to put them to use is a different matter.

    The problem with heavier defensive equipment is that you have to get it there, and you have to train people to use it, and you paint a pretty obvious target. A 30 lb shoulder mounted missile has a lot of ways to get there, takes an hour to learn to use (the simpler ones, at least) and can pop out of an apartment window at a moments notice.

  63. 63.

    Martin

    The TikTok of the APC (armored personnel carrier) instructions is from a year ago. The woman in the video is a Russian mechanic, she’s not Ukrainian.

    That said, it’s still useful information.

  64. 64.

    Sebastian

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The lack of artillery is because Putin really believed all they have to do is roll into Ukraine like the mob and that’s it. That’s all he has ever done really. Otherwise, we would be looking at a Sarajevo or Vukovar scenario.

    As to the air force, I’ve been looking for info on the Polish MIG-29 (which turn out to be originally East German ones!) and found this:

    https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

  65. 65.

    Sebastian

    @Morzer:

    Yeah, this is all fine and good and true but puh-leaze everyone, Putin is not the only crazy Russian in Russia.

    Let’s stop pretending he is.

  67. 67.

    Martin

    @LadySuzy:

    Is not escalating now something the West will regret down the road ?

    Under what definition of ‘now’?

    Adam is welcome to correct me here, but we are escalating. We (the US and EU and NATO) are openly sending pretty serious arms to Ukraine with the express purpose of killing Putin’s army. That’s not something that’s normally done. We’re reading the room and seeing that it’s okay to go there.

    None of this prevents us from escalating further in a week or a month or a year, and while Ukraine gets weaker with every day, so does Russia. If we can contain Russia without involving bombers and subs, that would be ideal.

    As things stand now, it’s almost impossible to envision a scenario where Russia is stronger next week, next year, next decade. This was the 2nd world, the other great superpower, and they’re struggling to defeat a country with a GDP about the same as the county I live in. Ukraine is no backwater, but it’s not Germany or the UK let alone the US.

    Lets say this conflict goes to a stalemate and Russia withdraws. The sanctions aren’t coming off. Russias economy is fucked. And the only good part of their economy – oil and gas, the western nations are rapidly signaling they would have been dumping regardless.

    My guess is that Adam looks at the playing field and sees the greatest opportunity the west has ever had for dealing with Russia. NATO has never been more unified. Russia is the obvious aggressor, and nobody other than Fox News hosts disputes that. Even if all we did was wreck every asset that Russia has put in Ukraine and never sent a bullet into Russias territory, it’d be a massive blow. Agree to remove sanctions when Russia pays reparations to Ukraine, which will only hasten their economic pain.

    The risk to waiting is that Trump gets back in power, or someone like him, tears NATO apart and gives Putin a hand.

    As to nukes, Putin needs no objective excuse to use them. He had none to invade Ukraine after all. You can’t really antagonize a person who invents their own rationale for everything. That’s not to say the risk is zero by engaging, but it’s already non-zero. I’m not sure it gets substantially worse unless we are seeking to push Russias borders back, which I see no appetite for.

  68. 68.

    Martin

    @Sebastian: I’m not sure about that. Russia rolled Crimea pretty handily and did it without looking too messy. Artillery is messy. His plan was probably to take Ukraine while not pissing off the world too badly, as happened with Crimea, with few civilian casualties, with minimal civilian damage. That plan was lost within a day.

    The new plan seems to be what we feared – larger scale, more indiscriminate destruction. In short, the artillery is coming forward.

    There was an interesting thread floating around Twitter talking about the Defense Minister and his political savvy. One of the weird things that happens in really corrupt countries is that it self-sabotages. The folks selling the weapons aren’t interested in the complaints from the politicians that the equipment doesn’t work, or isn’t the stuff they need. They just want to loot the country treasury. A guy who is really popular with the kleptocrats tends to be a guy who runs the military into the ground because he won’t stand up to the contractors. I mean, look at how fucked up US military contracting is, and we’ve got pretty low levels of govt corruption. You can only imagine how it must be in Russia where everyone is a yes-man and everyone is feathering their bed.

  70. 70.

    Sebastian

    Thank you, Adam.

    I just want to thank you for creating this space here. And to all the other jackals here, thank you all as well.

    These are trying times, very hard on everyone. Coming in here feels like stepping into the bunker and finally taking off the helmet.

    Slava Ukraini!

  71. 71.

    Subsole

     

     

    @Adam L Silverman: The only (exceedingly dim) bright spot in such a scenario is that Ukrainians are white, which means someone with the clout to do something about it might actually give a shit if Russia tries for genocide…

    Otherwise, as always, thanks for the update and the perspective.

     

    @West of the Rockies: One of my fervent hopes is that Russia’s economic collapse also pulls down their disinfo networks here. Maybe even gives us a fighting chance for the midterms…again, the nice thing about fighting a vast right wing conspiracy is that hitting them here hurts Putin there.

    Altho, given the polling I’ve seen, I am starting to despair for my countrymen’s sanity…

  72. 72.

    Sebastian

    @Subsole:

    The disinfo network is done. The Russian money spigot has dried up in *checks notes* forty-eight hours including the <rapid eye blinking> Swiss.

  74. 74.

    Sebastian

    @Martin:

    I spent the summers of my youth in Yugoslavia, I know exactly how this works!

    This is the Yugoslavian War to a T.

    Breakaway Republics with Western oriented Youth? check

    Massive kleptocracy of shoe salesmen and cab drivers of majority ethnicity (Serb/Rus)? check

    Have mobsters/warlords in ethno enclaves in breakaway republics stir up shit? check

    Use army and conscripts to pound breakaway republics with CCCP shitty-but-we-have-10,000 weapons? check

    Fuck the civilians with sieges, Grads, artillery, mortars, and the occasional air strike and other sick fuckery from above? check

    Complete and utter incompetence? check

     

    This is the same exact shit like in the Balkans, just bigger.

  76. 76.

    Subsole

     

     

    @Sebastian: I will admit, watching certain corners of twitter disintegrate into alternating bouts of frenzied histrionics and deafening silence has been…amusing.

  77. 77.

    Sloane Ranger

    British media is speculating (yes I know) that the reason the Russian convoy isn’t moving much is because the refuelling tankers ,supply lorries are at the rear and the convoy is taking up the entire road.

    This means that every time a tank runs out of fuel (which is often) it has to wait for fuel to be brought up from the rear in jerrycans and the same for spare parts. In the meantime everything behind them is stalled as they are blocking the road.

  79. 79.

    Sebastian

    @Sloane Ranger:

    that sounds about right. That’s how the entire economy works, completely inadequate strategies which allow them to appear busy but also allow for a lot of shoulder shrugging and deflecting of responsibility

  80. 80.

    sab

    @Martin: This seems like a good evaluation of the big picture and a heartbreaking one for folks with loved ones in or near Ukraine,

  81. 81.

    Morzer

    @Martin: I am not sure how much closer NATO/the EU can get to fighting a proxy war in Ukraine. I don’t think they have much choice about it, but I am pretty sure that Putin isn’t in a mood to make allowances. I really hope I’m wrong, but this thing strikes me as likely to go very badly wrong for all involved. (Assuming that Putin doesn’t suddenly discover a passion for skydiving from the 50th floor of an apartment building while drinking polonium tea, that is.)

  83. 83.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    Would like to know the identities of all the Russian commanders on the ground, down to the regimental level.

    These are war crimes they’re ordering, and I’d prefer not to see them or their families post-war at my favorite Caribbean and European holiday destinations.

  84. 84.

    Morzer

    @sab: I wish I didn’t agree with you, but Putin’s clearly  decided to go down in flames with everyone else.

  85. 85.

    sab

    @Morzer: But, as always, the survivors might survive, and what we do to help will actually help save many many thousands. So do it, or they won’t survive.

  88. 88.

    David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch

    I’m concerned about the reports that Steven Seagal is leading russian army units. As you know he’s hard to kill and operates above the law. If true this really put Ukraine under siege.

  89. 89.

    Gin & Tonic

    One thing that will escape most of you, I suspect, is that in every one of these viral videos I’ve seen – sunflower seed grandma, tractor towing APc guy, blonde driving tank, Molotov out car window, two guys with NLAWs saying we’ll fuck you up, every one – they’re speaking Russian, not Ukrainian. So much for Putin’s theory that Russian-speaking people support him.

  90. 90.

    The Thin Black Duke

    Ultimately, I’m hoping that there are more greedy Russians than crazy Russians. Why?Because while the crazy Russians would have no hesitation in starting a thermonuclear war, the greedy Russians know that blowing up the world would be bad for business.

  92. 92.

    Steeplejack

    @Gin & Tonic:

    “Blonde driving tank” has been outed as a video of a Russian woman from before the Ukraine invasion, according to some sources. We need to remember that both sides are pushing the propaganda war.

  93. 93.

    Jinchi

    @Sloane Ranger: ​
    This means that every time a tank runs out of fuel (which is often) it has to wait for fuel to be brought up from the rear in jerrycans and the same for spare parts.

    That doesn’t make much sense if you think through it. There are plenty of places along that road where vehicles could pass a stalled tank. And it’s trivially easy to send fuel up through the chain, if the fuel trucks are in the convoy. Even a simple bucket brigade would work.

    Everyone in the world knows the convoy is there and are wondering why it hasn’t been taken out yet. Certainly the Ukrainians and the Russians know it. If it hasn’t been targeted yet, there’s probably a good reason for it.

  95. 95.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The Kamil Galeev tweet is extraordinary, & the RIA Novosti article is quite chilling. I wonder if an employee at RIA Novosti published the article on purpose to embarrass Putin.

  97. 97.

    debbie

    So I came across this Twitter thread last night:

    1/8. Russia has a history of aiming for quick and decisive strikes against Ukraine, failing, then revealing the aims of the operation in media prepared on the assumption of success.
    — Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) February 28, 2022

    He’s a Yale history professor who’s published a number of books (with ominous titles). Reading through the thread, he links to a Russian document about the plans for Ukraine. It’s in Russian, so I have no idea what it says, but then there’s this Tweet:

    7/8. The goals of the invasion described here are destruction of the Ukrainian government, control of all Ukrainian territory, the end of Ukrainian sovereignty, and a solution to the “Ukrainian question.” https://t.co/C0PG7zam2w
    — Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) February 28, 2022

    I’m wondering if Adam could address the credibility of this (the document is in post #6) and whether it’s some out-there conspiracy theory or not. The words “a solution to the ‘Ukrainian question'” have set off my Spidey Sense and some sort of genetic, innate sense of dread.

  98. 98.

    Gin & Tonic

    @debbie: That was a real document. English translations have been published, I just can’t look for one right now, sorry.

  99. 99.

    trnc

    Is not escalating now something the West will regret down the road ?

    Under what definition of ‘now’?

    Adam is welcome to correct me here, but we are escalating. We (the US and EU and NATO) are openly sending pretty serious arms to Ukraine with the express purpose of killing Putin’s army. That’s not something that’s normally done. We’re reading the room and seeing that it’s okay to go there.

    Eastern bloc countries have donated planes and weapons, and Ukrainian pilots went over to pick them up. I can’t help but wonder if some additional pilots and troops covertly helped with that task, if you catch my drift.

  101. 101.

    Patricia Kayden

    Biden and his team have not only rebuilt U.S. relations with NATO and the rest of the free world — that Trump had weakened — but made them stronger. Biden deserves strong bipartisan praise now and support in the tough days ahead.— Walter Pincus (@walterpincus) February 28, 2022

  102. 102.

    Morzer

    @debbie: The Russian article is essentially a rant on the theme of Putin, far-sighted statesman, restoring the historic unity of Great Russia, White Russia (Belarus) and Little Russia (Ukraine). There’s also a certain amount of conspiracy theory about Germany, Anglo-Saxons, the EU etc. If Putin actually believes this sophomoric and badly outdated nonsense, he’s barking mad with a Messiah complex that’s visible from space.

  103. 103.

    lowtechcyclist

     Frankly, [no no-fly zone] is one of those places where national values runs headlong into realpolitik and for the time being realpolitik has to win out.

    ‘Realpolitik’ = possibility that direct encounters between US and Russia conventional forces might cause Putin to go nuclear.

  104. 104.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Jinchi: Everyone in the world knows the convoy is there and are wondering why it hasn’t been taken out yet. Certainly the Ukrainians and the Russians know it. If it hasn’t been targeted yet, there’s probably a good reason for it.

    I’m willing to believe the Ukrainian defense people have a reason.  What I can’t grasp is why there haven’t been a good number of civilians throwing Molotov cocktails.  I have a hard time believing they have enough ground troops out there to guard a 40-mile-long convoy.

  105. 105.

    Ksmiami

    Not that I think we should risk nuclear war, but maybe we can slap Ukrainian stickers on Warthogs and blast the convoy to hell. I’m sick of Putin getting away with crimes against humanity- he’s not going to stop unless we stop him.

  106. 106.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Subsole: I’ve just had to avoid twitter because so many of the people I follow are just going on and on about their fear of impending global nuclear war. This is THE Ur-fear for me. I grew up during the 1980s and I feel it in my bones. But if I let it consume me I’m not going to be at all helpful to anyone.

  107. 107.

    Geminid

    @lowtechcyclist: @Tom Nichols has been writing about this question. The threat of escalation to nuclear war is obviously one reason for reluctance to start a shooting war between Russia and NATO. Nichols also posits that NATO intervention will take Putin off the hook: he could blame Russia’s failures on Western forces, and not Ukrainian resistance.

    This seems to me to be a valid point. It is frustrating to many to see Ukraine’s civilians so brutally asaulted, while fat targets like Russian convoys sit (apparently) unmolested. Reporters like Richard Engle play into this frustration. I think NATO is right, though, to rule out armed intervention.

  108. 108.

    Geminid

    @lowtechcyclist: I think the civilians are waiting for the convoy to come to them. Ukrainian soldiers may be planning similarly, or maybe waiting for darkness to give them cover.

  110. 110.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @sab:

    It was going to go badly wrong whatever direction or choice we chose.

    Yes. And I’d rather things go badly wrong doing the right thing (which has a chance, however small, of succeeding), than doing the wrong thing, or doing nothing at all.

  111. 111.

    Peale

    @debbie: there is simply no way that this little dream outlined in the paper gets implemented without the loss of millions of Ukrainian lives, if they wait around to implement it. Ukrainians who don’t want to go along with it will be executed or leave the country if they can. But you can’t indoctrinate people into the idea that they are “Little Russia” and should by all rights be ruled by Russians (but subordinate to them) without a great deal of suffering.

  113. 113.

    Another Scott

    Lots of reporting this morning walking back the plans to send old Soviet fighters to Ukraine. The earlier news sounded too weird and off the cuff to me (even though coming from a genuine official).

    Maybe it will happen now on the downlow. Maybe there are other plans. Dunno.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  114. 114.

    debbie

    @Peale:

    It seems to me that the loss of millions of Ukrainian lives you refer to is in fact part of the deal. The “Ukrainian question” echoes the “Jewish question” from the 1930s.

  115. 115.

    Matt McIrvin

    @O. Felix Culpa: If we have to choose between letting a genocide happen or risking burning the world in nuclear fire (which is genocide anyway), what do we do?

    (Knowing also that if we do let it happen, Putin is going to learn that he has this leverage and repeat this elsewhere?)

    All I can really say is, I’m at least sure the people currently running the US are rational, are deeply aware of the dilemma here and have thought about it harder than I have. Two years ago that was not the case.

  117. 117.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Matt McIrvin:

     If we have to choose between letting a genocide happen or risking burning the world in nuclear fire (which is genocide anyway), what do we do?

    Like you, I am not a military/political strategist (and don’t play one on tv), but I hope that those who are have a non-binary solution to this horrible conundrum. Offing Putin and his top supporters might be a risky but possible way out. Short of that, I still prefer to do the right thing if no other options present themselves. Thank goodness (for so many reasons) that I’m not one of the deciders!

  118. 118.

    The Pale Scot

    @Another Scott:

    But maybe the tens of miles long tank convoy is not moving much because they can’t.

    It’s from Chernobyl, swampy land, the UKRA got ahead of them and blew the bridges.

    Note. The UKRA waits until the RU has commits  to a route and then blows them. That’s why that sapper did the hero move.

  120. 120.

    RaflW

    @Subsole: “given the polling I’ve seen, I am starting to despair for my countrymen’s sanity…”

    I feel ya. But the last big poll I saw was in the field on Feb 20, but published by WaPo on Feb 25. We’ll have to see how this Russian-induced crisis impacts a lot of things.

    I believe Biden is doing an amazing job. And I think in the short term, he has to be somewhat careful to that the Europeans, who are at most risk and can move arms the fastest, get the credit they deserve.

    But Dems will need to really step it up. Both in getting lots of info out about Joe’s accomplishments, and about the GOP’s many years of Russian footsie (and in the case of TFG and several other big names, being fully compromised Putinists).

  122. 122.

    ChiJD Doug

    You may have undersold the Galeev thread.  Broad, deep, filled with receipts, readable and extremely informative.  Exceedingly excellent and greatly great.

  123. 123.

    trollhattan

    @Geminid:

    If it were to happen, one satisfying outcome would be the message to Putin: “You recall saying this invasion is only to counter NATO expansion and aggression? Nice work.”

    To be clear, I’m neither predicting an air campaign over Ukraine nor naive about potential unintended consequences. We’ve avoided direct combat against USSR/Russia more than half a century for very good reasons.

  125. 125.

    Lyrebird

    @Matt McIrvin: I’m at least sure the people currently running the US are rational, are deeply aware of the dilemma here and have thought about it harder than I have. Two years ago that was not the case.

    So well put.  Thank you.

    I’ve had people reply to me like, how can you say you’re so happy Biden’s in the WH when he hasn’t solved this one?  Don’t you care about the Ukrainians?  (or something else)

    If an easy solution was available, I’d bet someone would’ve done it already.  The situation is still awful, and that gives me even more reason to thank the FSM we ousted the orange menace here.

     

    @O. Felix Culpa: Thank goodness (for so many reasons) that I’m not one of the deciders!

    DItto for me!

  127. 127.

    trollhattan

    @ChiJD Doug:

    There’s a LOT to digest but agree it’s a fascinating long-view evaluation.

    Even if they “win” in some sense the amount of personnel and hardware they are expending will leave them weakened a very long time.

  128. 128.

    The Pale Scot

    @sanjeevs:

    Go to Google, look up Moscow Russia restaurants and leave Google reviews letting the people of Russia know what’s going on in the Ukraine. Works like a charm

    That sounds like a job for Zhena G

  129. 129.

    The Pale Scot

    @lowtechcyclist:

    I have a hard time believing they have enough ground troops out there to guard a 40-mile-long convoy.

    Helicopters, and there’s a lot of water around that restricts bug out routes

  130. 130.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Gin & Tonic: Pre-1991, weren’t kids all over the CCCP[1] taught Russian early and often? Wasn’t Russian the (you should pardon the expression) lingua franca?[2] Aren’t most of the folks in those videos of an age where (through school or daily life) they’d have picked up at least some ability to communicate in Russian? And if one cared to address a Russian soldier and you wanted to make sure he understood you, wouldn’t you do so in his own tongue?

    Only a GBist[3] as clueless as Ptui!n would think that in the “near abroad” able-to-speak-Russian would necessarily equate to Russophile.

    Slava Ukraïni!

     

    [1] And the Warsaw Pact as well. A friend in Praha was in her mid-teens in 1989. Until then she had Russian in school, & like most Czechs dropped it ASAP for English – to the point where English texts and dictionaries were impossible to find when I was there in summer 1990.

    [2] Still the case when I visited in the early 2010’s. Once across the Slovak border east of Košice, English didn’t work any more. I carried a Ukrainian phrasebook, & my stumbling efforts were greeted warmly in Lviv, but in Kyiv people gave me the hairy eyeball – everything, it seemed, was done in Russian, of which I had 20 words (mostly from my teenage days as a serious chessplayer) and no phrasebook. I spent some time believing the Kjivans were surly & hostile – til I encountered a handful who had a language in common, who were uniformly delightful and more than once saved my bacon (or was that Hamlet?).

    [3] For the uninitiated: “GB” = “state security” in Russian, and the slang term “GBist” (pronounced “gay beast”) referred to a member of the security apparatus, like Ptui!n

  131. 131.

    RaflW

    @Patricia Kayden: He deserves strong bipartisan praise, but the GOP has been crystal clear. The top official campaign account of the Republicans called him a ‘failed president’ within the last 48 hours.

    They’re scared shitless that Biden competently leading the US through a very risky and complex global crisis will, gosh, I dunno, contrast sharply with what Dubya and that next Rep. president were like.

  133. 133.

    Bill Arnold

    @LadySuzy:

    Unless there is intelligence that says that there is a very, very, real possibility that Putin will launch ballistic missiles on European cities, or worse, a nuclear weapon.

    You are not thinking clearly.
    A global thermonuclear war would kill billions of humans, mostly through starvation and spotty collapse of civilization/infrastructure.
    Increasing the probability of a thermonuclear war by 1 percent is functionally equivalent to killing 10s of millions of humans. Putin has, probabilistically (“expectation value” in basic quantum physics), already killed 10s of millions of humans with his threats. If he amps up the threat level, he’s in the hundreds of millions. He has long been a war criminal (Grozny, etc) but these nuclear threats, and the invasion of Ukraine when the only way Russians know how to capture cities is with artillery and bombing, is another level of evil.

    But we must do (and not do) what we must to avoid thermonuclear war.

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