I’ve basically gone down a Ukraine K-Hole for the last week, which is self-destructive for a number of reasons, but mostly because there really isn’t anything I can do to help. It’s also giving me flashbacks to warbloggers days, which for obvious reasons are shameful, but at least this time around I am rooting for the right people.
And look- there are lots of things that can be done, donations, pressure your congressman, etc., and those things absolutely help. But what it really boils down to, in my mind, is that what they need are airplanes, tanks, drones, anti-aircraft defenses, artillery, and I am none of those things and have no access to any of them. This is going to be a long siege, and I think they can hold out for quite some time, but as Adam said to me on the phone and I agree, we are going to have to get to a point where the rest of the world is tired of letting some lunatic in a bunker hold the rest of the world hostage and do something, or Ukraine will eventually fall and then become a rogue nation for a decade as a bloody civil war simmers the entire time. Either we lock down the airspace and start a Berlin airlift style mission, or massively step up our supply of arms, or actually get involved, or, someone puts a bullet into Putin, that is how I think things are going to go.
And I am not saying we SHOULD get involved. I am glad I do not have to make that decision. I understand why the rest of the world is reacting the way they are.
At any rate, back to watching the livecams of Kiev and surfing the internet for reliable information. Thank god we have Adam,, and the threads at LGM have been good, too.
Acts of Kindness: Time for a Deep Breath
Mike Field
Same here. Putin I think is a goner ultimately. Someone in his trusted enterage has a relative or loved one in Ukraine and will be motivated to avenge them, no matter how long the table. But I feel your frustration and anger.
Tim C.
Yeah, Seconded on all that.
Also, can we say Biden and SecDef Austin choosing *NOT* to have an scheduled ICBM test was a solid call?
Just saying, it’s nice to have adults in charge.
Starfish
One of the Many Jens
I was using exactly those words today, too. “Consumed.” I am deeply unproductive at work and at life, at the moment. Part of it is the need to bear witness, part so that I can find ways I can help, and part is just the weird workings of my brain, where learning as much as I can about something gives me a false sense of greater control over the uncontrollable.
One of the Many Jens
@Tim C.: Amen.
Jerzy Russian
Yes, the status quo (the one where Putin continues to be in charge) cannot go on for much longer. How he is best removed and neutered is an open question at the moment.
FelonyGovt
Same. I keep telling myself that doomscrolling is not doing me or anyone else any good, but then I go back to it.
SiubhanDuinne
@Starfish:
Too bad this (apparently) won’t make a particle of difference in Rs retaining the seat.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@Starfish: Saw that!
And, yes, I too have been consumed by the news and frustrated by not being able to help. However, I just want to thank everyone on this blog, which I have been able to recommend to everyone.
I showed the blue and gold “Russian Warship go fuck yourself” page to an elderly Ukrainian acquaintance (i don’t know any Ukrainians well, but the East Village still has some) and she laughed out loud.
SiubhanDuinne
@FelonyGovt:
Yup. I’m doing the same. I suspect many of us are.
Jerzy Russian
@Starfish: I see the writers of this timeline have to reach deeper and deeper to top what they did the week prior.
senyordave
I would like to say that this is Putin’s Waterloo, but I think that is wishful thinking. A lot of Russians may be upset now, but most will fall into line when they take Ukraine. And I don’t think it will take much time. The west will fret but I just don’t see the leverage. They’ll weather the sanctions. And in a couple of years he will be popular again with the GOP.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
It’s hard. I keep looking for one of those smart people on twitter who know things will describe even some plausible off-ramp– as we say now– for Putin; I haven’t seen it yet.
My hope, slim and dark, is that among the people Putin surprised is Xi, who probably doesn’t want to see the world roiled to the point Putin has done. I think it was on Marketplace who said that already the end result of this is going to be far greater Russian dependency on the largesse of the Chinese government. And if Ukraine makes Putin feel encircled…. look at a map, Vlad. Also Russia and Ukraine are major grain exporters and people are already starting to talk about food shortages in North Africa, especially Egypt, and I don’t think the Saudis and other Gulf states– who currently seem to be at least unconcerned– are anxious for greater instability in that neighborhood. If they turn on the spigot, it would at least make it easier for the West to hold the coalition together.
Peale
Yeah. I’m not all here. I find myself unable to focus on things to distract me from news feeds. Actually had to ask a friend how a series finale I watched on Friday actually ended. I know I watched it, but didn’t really see it.
WaterGirl
Speaking of wanting to help, I will re-up this from downstairs in response to Suzanne.
dmsilev
@Starfish:
From the Dallas Morning News,
The headline, “Rep. Van Taylor apologizes for affair with ‘ISIS bride,’ abruptly drops reelection bid”, is properly bonkers.
dexwood
I work hard at not being consumed. Hard work it is because I still check into news sites and this blog throughout the day. I very much want to believe Putin’s days are numbered at the low end, but so many will die before he does.
LongHairedWeirdo
I’ll tell you one thing: I was comforted by a bit about how, if we’re willing to stare corruption right in the eye right now, and take down any and all laundering operations needed to hurt Putin and his oligarchs, well, we just might be able to use sanctions to stomp out most aggressive actions.
It just might be that this is scary enough, and each major nation has few enough necks stuck out, that it will happen, and the results could really bring about some good changes in the world.
It also strikes me as a path to dystopia. All it takes is an America or a China to decide not to hand over their own launderers.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Russian tourism is big in Egypt.
Ken
@dmsilev: It reads like a Mad Lib where everyone was a bit drunk. It also reminds me of this xkcd on Google trends.
Suzanne
I am wrapped up in it, too.
I notice that sometimes, when things are dire like this, I can’t differentiate between what I want to happen and what I genuinely expect to happen. Mr. Suzanne is very measured and patient, and I’m usually the one saying, “Fuck this, shit’s coming down, let’s move to Canada STAT”. But right now, I have no idea. I keep hitting refresh and I half-expect to see that Putin has been killed. But again, don’t know if that’s wishful.
eversor
@senyordave:
GOP voters still love him and a rooting for him and not Ukraine or the US here. The reason is simple. Putin is Christianity. He stands up for traditional gender roles, doesn’t tolerate lgbtq, encourages Church attendence and is a protector of a Church that is VERY traditional.
Because of this, they are rooting for Putin and not the godless Americans and their allies in The West who have turned their backs on Christianity.
Until people accept that our cold civil war is a religious civil war and we can have Christianity or we can have democracy/freedoms/equality we might as well give up and hand them the nation.
MagdaInBlack
I’m down the rabbit hole too. I would be anyway, but perhaps a little more because my neighbors here in this condo complex are Ukrainians, Russians and Poles. The languages/voices I hear in the hall, outside, and when they say good morning to me, are the ones I’m hearing in all the clips I watch. I know it’s a tenuous connection, compared to some here, but it does seem to make it more personal.
As I sit here safely reading and watching, I am thinking of my neighbors in their living rooms glued to the news for much more personal reasons.
Mallard Filmore
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
YouTube keeps suggesting to me videos from the channel “China Update”, like this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xpn0u0dCxg with the title
“NEW DATA: Feb Sales Collapse | What Ukraine Means for Taiwan | Evergrande | Hong Kong| China Economy”
Well, China is going through some things right now which will make it difficult, or at least annoying, to prop up Russia.
Villago Delenda Est
As you were a combat soldier once upon a time, John, I can fully understand your position. Even me, cold warrior who never saw combat, sits back and does my analysis stuff on all this, drawing on my own experiences in Europe, Honduras, and Korea.
Old Man Shadow
After the last few years, I’ve definitely lost a lot of fear about death, so the possibility of going “poof” in a nuclear blast no longer causes me anxiety.
Personally, I hope we have some contacts in Moscow and elsewhere and can arrange for Mr. Putin to have an “accident”. Seems like that would be the easiest way to resolve the crisis. Next guy steps up, says, “Oh no, that was all Vladimir. Sorry, Ukraine”, Russia withdraws, and the Bratva goes back to looting the shit out of the place.
That outcome is, less than ideal, for Russia, of course.
The best outcome would be if the soldiers refuse to fight, the people rise up and overthrow Putin’s regime, and establish a new government by the people, of the people, and for the people.
But who the fuck knows what’s going to happen?
Like you said,, though, we should be done letting Putin dictate reality just because he has nukes.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@Mallard Filmore: this. Also remember Covid. Right now Hong Kong is getting hammered, and there’s a possibility that it might spread in China the way it spread in Hong Kong
As the readers of Annie Laurie’s inestimable morning thread know all too well…..
mali muso
Count me as another one down the rabbit hole, refreshing Twitter feeds obsessively and hoping for some ray of hope. Zero work has gotten done this week. I also am finding myself welling up with tears, imagining the choices that parents and families are making, now that I have a little one of my own.
jnfr
It’s good to be retired in these obsessive times.
And I agree with Tim C., it is =so= good to have adults in charge.
Seanly
John, I too am consumed. I continue with my line of thought from my post on Adam’s update 7 – in the long term, Russia has already lost this. There is no way that their military could pacify or hold Ukraine after they decimate the UKR resistance. Many of the major cities will be very damaged along with thousands dead. Unless the Russians are willing to murder millions of citizens I don’t see how they could ever hope to hold on to Ukraine.
There’s video of civilians blocking a road to a nuclear power plant and Russians launched grenades and opened fire on them. There’s other widespread & ample evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity by the Russians. The Ukrainians are just like anyone else – they will have a long memory and rightfully nurse a grudge about what the Russians are doing now.
Grumpy Old Railroader
John. I know what you are going through.
PTSD
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Starfish
@eversor: This aspect of it is very weird because someone was pointing out that Russians are not particularly religious.
The Eastern Orthodox Church stuff is pretty showy, but I am not seeing how it would connect with all the weird protestant fundamentalists.
Starfish
@dmsilev: This gets funnier and funnier. I love it so much.
Suzanne
I am lying here in frog pose, trying to get really deep into the hammies.
I am wondering at what point the other NATO/EU countries get involved directly.
Alison Rose
@Grumpy Old Railroader: I don’t want to speak for John, but I think you’re taking the word “flashbacks” too literally.
stacib
@Suzanne: I keep hitting refresh, but I’m scared each time that I’ll read something has happened to Zelensky.
eversor
@Starfish:
They aren’t, but the Putin love stemmed directly from gay marriage here while he cracked down on it. He also told women to go back home and have children and he walks around with the head priest of the Russian church.
debbie
@Mike Field:
He has to be made gone, or this will just happen again.
piratedan
@Suzanne: I would not be shocked to see certain EU members become even more overt in their support… thinking Poland, Germany, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania would be especially motivated to do so.
Dan B
A Texas judge has put a temporary stop to the investigation of the family with the 16 year old trans daughter. It looks like good news if we can keep it out of the Supreme court.
Lyrebird
@WaterGirl: Hi WG! I see that header link up top every time I refresh, now – excellent placement.
Just wanted to thank you and to also second the comment from Argiope ??? that maybe we could do a fundraiser. even though I wish we could send some fighter planes, I would feel better encouraging everyone to donate to one of the humanitarian support orgs, fwiw.
Dunno if there’s anything worth calling Congress about.
I think there’s value in talking to each other here, and I think there’s value in doing something concrete.
My 2 cents.
Ohio Mom
I am consumed too. I think part of what compels me is that the Ukrainian fight is a just fight.
I can’t think of any wars my country has been involved in during my lifetime that I would consider just — if anyone can think of any, I’ll gladly stand corrected. I’ll add that getting bin Laden was called for but the rest of that war, especially after he was dispatched?
I also would celebrate Putin’s assassination though who knows what or who would fill that vacuum? I don’t get the impression the Russian people are as dedicated to self-rule as Ukrainians are. Well, first things first, and that is this war.
Kelly
I knew little of Ukraine a few weeks ago. I too have followed the war news obsessively. It’s a flood of “content”. Many thanks to Adam and the knowledgeable jackals for pointers to the better quality sources. Ukraine’s plucky humor and determination indears them to me. I cannot help Ukraine or turn my head from her agony.
Bex
@eversor: Some background on church history in Russia and Ukraine. http://unherd.com/2022/02/putins-spiritual-destiny/
West of the Rockies
Last week had so many unexpected and gratifying stories of Ukrainian successes… haven’t seen any this week. I hope they are still eliminating many Russian military implements of destruction.
raven
@Villago Delenda Est: Korea when?
Al Z.
I have been recently reflecting on how the pandemic feels like a moment in time like 9/11 where you know there is no coming back. “A fixed moment in time.” An inflection point in history. That there is no return to “normal”. And now this invasion happens and I can’t process it. Is it the same, of the same or something different. Sounds obtuse I know. But I’m worried that the full impact of this will not be known for weeks months years. Doesn’t help to have an 18 year old kid just starting her military career. But I’m fucking scared.
Johnnybuck
We all know that at some point NATO, and the EU have to stand up to the nuclear threat, the point of that spear might need to be Poland, but somebody’s gotta call his bluff. Send aid overland, dare them to try and stop it.
HeleninEire
I am consumed with this too. Nothing else matters. I read 2 blogs. This one and Wonkette. If it’s not a story about the war I walk away. I only have so much RAM.
Except that my best friend in Ireland, Amy, has Covid. She has something similar to COPD. She is suffering greatly. And she is vaxxed and boosted. I am very worried.
eversor
@Johnnybuck:
Would need to be a former iron curtain member. Either that or say Finland could do it. They are scared of Fins.
CarolPW
@Ohio Mom: Sarajevo.
Omnes Omnibus
@Johnnybuck: What do you mean by stand up to the nuclear threat?
MagdaInBlack
Maybe I missed it, but have we had any Putin sightings lately? or is he bunkered in?
One of the Many Jens
Figured I’d copy a post from downstairs re the status of planes from Poland –
Folks [politicians] just got ahead of their skis a bit. It’s a problem with doing so much of this over social media, during chaos, with a lot of internal and external limitations. It may yet happen – it isn’t completely nixed. Here’s the latest I’ve seen: https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/is-poland-sending-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/
VeniceRiley
Interesting thread from a U Chicago Econ prof:
https://twitter.com/teri_kanefield/status/1499141358874890240?s=21
Gin & Tonic
I love you, Cole, and this place, but – please – use the Ukrainian transliteration of “Kyiv” and not the Russian transliteration of “Kiev.”
It matters.
Johnnybuck
@Omnes Omnibus: Just what I said. He brought up taking his nuclear arsenal to red alert defensive level. He’s using the existential threat of that to get his way.
Ohio Mom
@CarolPW: I’ll accept that answer, though I think of that as more a variation of a police action, we were ending someone else’s war. We weren’t starting things up like we did in so many other places.
Every now and then we do the right thing.
Gin & Tonic
@Seanly:
Long memory? Yeah, about 800 years.
Ohio Mom
I think the other thing compelling our attention is that much of the reporting on this war uses our contemporary language — tweets and TikTok’s and memes.
We were all already on our phones, the reporting comes to us, we don’t have to wait for the six o’clock news or buy a paper.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@eversor: Those people are Millennialists they support Putin like they support Israel; to bring the Rapture. According to their future history Russia has to attack Israel to start the ball rolling. This has been a feature of the American Christian Right since the 1970s, see Late Great Planet Earth and Left Behind.
Another Scott
I hear ya, JC. Hang in there.
Things have moved very quickly, and I’m sure the EU and NATO are watching carefully and thinking about the next steps.
Mother Nature’s mud has a vote too, at least for the next 4-6 weeks away from the southern part of the country. Especially for companies that didn’t take care of their tires…
Thread:
(via https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop )
Cheers,
Scott.
Ohio Mom
@HeleninEire: It is hard enough to be worried about a loved one in a nearby hospital but being across an ocean…! That is tough. I hope she pulls through.
Omnes Omnibus
@Johnnybuck: That doesn’t really answer what you mean by “stand up to.” Call Putin out? Involve Nato troops in Ukraine? Raise our alert levels?
Suzanne
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Eh. Plenty of not-religious right-wing wannabe authoritarians like Putin. The wrong people (liberals) don’t like him, and he represents authoritarian masculinity (think: shirtless photo, KGB past, kept girlfriend). They like him because they want to be him. Stupid people often have stupid reasons for liking things.
Aziz, light!
How I think this ends is that Putin fails to install a puppet government in Kyiv (at least one with any staying power) but does achieve his principal aim, which is to annex the southern area of Ukraine all the way to Moldova. This will give him full control of the old and gas reserves there, all the Black Sea ports, and the water supply to Crimea. The world at large will likely let him keep it as the price of saving what remains of Ukraine.
Russian oligarch money buys a lot of appeasement. The sanctions will be relaxed because there is money to be made. Meanwhile, the professed aim of EU countries to untether from Russian oil and gas will take decades to implement.
In America, enthusiasm for keeping Ukraine intact will evaporate soon after gas jumps to $5 or $6 a gallon. When it does, a majority of American voters will hand our government back to the GQP, which will say please come back, Vova, all is forgiven.
Without those oil and gas reserves, a smaller, heavily damaged Ukraine will be too weakened to get their territory back for another generation or two.
different-church-lady
a) I’m pretty consumed by it too, no shame in that
b) The only thing that’s going to end this is either someone in Russia taking out Putin, or the Russian populace rising up against him. Us getting involved in a shooting war might help the Ukrainians, but there’s no way of pounding Putin into withdrawal without a world war starting.
Johnnybuck
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes to all three.
Omnes Omnibus
@Johnnybuck: So, fuck it, let’s just get it over with and see who survives?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Omnes Omnibus: seems to be a popular, or at least growing, opinion here tonight
I’m not there yet
Villago Delenda Est
@raven: 87-88. Yongsan. My unit provided fixed station comms to everything north of CP Tango (which was also part of our support footprint) south of Seoul.
squid696
I am a former submariner, so I am completely ignorant on this. So, I ask the former soldiers and airmen on here, how long it would take us to train Ukrainians to fly our attack helicopters and/or A-10s? It really looks like the Ukrainians could do real damage if they had good ground support aviation.
Miss Bianca
I’m right there with you, Cole. It didn’t help that during those first days of the invasion of Ukraine I was basically snow-bound in the house, so for a whole week I had nothing to do *but* doomscroll.
Now I’m just trying to get my shit together enough to actually do…something else. As well as count my pennies to see what I can contribute to relief efforts.
Kayla Rudbek
As a Cold War military brat, I have been doomscrolling a lot, and surprising myself with just how furious I am with the Russians and how much I want to smack anybody of Russian nationality down. I keep trying to remind myself that all of them don’t agree with Putin, that expelling Russian students from the West would backfire, that a lot of Russians who are in the USA are here because they don’t want to live under Putin’s rule, that giving the poor bloody infantrymen a chance to desert is a good thing.
It’s hard to articulate because I was so young when my dad was active duty, that this response that Russia/the Soviets/the Commies are the bad guy was set for me before I started first grade.
But I hope to God that someone manages to assassinate the SOB before he orders the nukes.
Villago Delenda Est
@squid696:
If they’re already trained as pilots for the type of aircraft (fixed wing or helo) not terribly long to get the basics down. The US is the only country that flies the A-10; not sure why that is. Don’t think it would be that difficult to transition to, but I’m wasn’t a zoomie, and my knowledge of Army helicopters is based on seeing them in operation, never served with a helicopter unit. I’ve flown in Hueys, Blackhawks, and Chinooks, but just a passenger.