(Found at Ukrainian Memes Force)
I wasn’t planning on doing an update tonight, but a couple of items have been brought to my attention and I wanted to highlight them while I’m thinking about them.
First off, the now occupied cities like Melitipol and Kherson, as well as the besieged ones like Mariupol need to be relieved via humanitarian corridors. As I noted in last night’s post, Russia agreed to allow them yesterday. However, Russia did the same thing in Syria and either never actually allowed them or, when they did, they actually targeted the humanitarian relief efforts. And, of course, the Russians now control the nuclear power plant they attacked last night and other Russian forces are moving towards a second one.
Kyiv and its defenders are still standing. Sebastian just speculated/mentioned in comments to AL’s post that Ukraine’s strategy may be to (temporarily) sacrifice the southern port cities while focusing on the defense of Kyiv and central Ukraine. This would make logical sense, so I figured I’d mention it because:
A photo from the journalist Bogdan Butkevich (h/t @CalibreObscura) included a claim that after two days Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops substantially back from Kyiv. It's geolocated to the outskirts of Ivankiv, FAR behind the furthest Russian advance. pic.twitter.com/l6yfJ428qX
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) March 3, 2022
If this has been a continuation of a frontal assault from Makariv yesterday, it would be a MASSIVE advance and the disintegration of much of Russia's notorious 60km convoy. If it is a side assault, it shows how vulnerable the column is to ambush and interdiction/disruption.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) March 3, 2022
Source: https://t.co/ncZESs1FLF
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) March 3, 2022
This would seem to suggest that Sebastian’s speculation is more than just logical.
The Russian military is shipping in antiquated equipment to replace what is being destroyed in Ukraine:
So yeah, as I was saying earlier re them breaking out the really old stuff now. https://t.co/p7GxsBzzR6
— Alex Luck (@AlexLuck9) March 4, 2022
Shipping in the old dilapidated equipment fits with an article about Russia’s logistics and supply problem published before the reinvasion that Paul Krugman highlighted:
This is fascinating: an article on Russian logistics published well in advance of the Ukraine invasion. Basically the Russians have far too few trucks to support their forces if they move far from railheads 1/ https://t.co/YMWiskSy0W
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) March 1, 2022
So they bet that they could overawe and intimidate the Ukrainians with a force far too small to overcome real resistance. It was a colossal misjudgment, but you can understand why they wanted to believe it 3/
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) March 1, 2022
Which also conforms to an assessment from Bellingcat’s Christo Grozev:
⚡️ Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev says that #Russia has resources left for the war until Sunday, after which they will collapse.
Also next week, Russia is facing sanctions, the scale of which “we have not seen before”, and they will also affect Putin
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 4, 2022
Just wanted to clarify the tweet below so it doesn't read as an end-of-war prediction. (Sadly it's not). My resources comment was about existing inventory/supplies in Ukraine. More can and will be supplied, but is a logistical nightmare.
On the sanctions…they are really good. https://t.co/J1Ja6CPQkv— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 4, 2022
While we won’t know for a while if this is, indeed, the next shipment of Bayrakter drones to Ukraine from Turkey, it would seem to be a positive indicator:
An Antonov Airlines Antonov An-124 (reg. ??UR-82072 as #ADB3174) from ??Tekirdag Corlu Airport (known for its Bayraktar TB2 delivery flights) is currently landing at ??Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport in Poland, the likely military hub for ??Ukraine, a Bayraktar TB2 operator. pic.twitter.com/1wk7yYfACU
— Gerjon | חריון (@Gerjon_) March 4, 2022
Speaking of Russian equipment problems, yesterday there was a very informative and also amusing thread regarding the seeming crappy tires the Russians are using on some of their vehicles.
This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.?
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022
This led to what seemed to be a positive ID on these tires. That they’re Chinese knockoffs.
Bit of a tire expert here. Those aren't Soviet-era heavy truck radials. Chinese military tires, and I believe specifically the Yellow Sea YS20. This is a tire I first encountered in Somalia and Sudan; it's a bad Chinese copy of the excellent Michelin XZL military tire design. ??
— Karl T. Muth ?✈️? (@KarlMuth) March 3, 2022
Yes, all the things in the original thread are valid, but these Chinese tires simply don't have the load ratings needed for equipment like what's shown. They are poorly-constructed and barely-inspected truck radials. The equivalent Michelin product is inspected and x-rayed (!!!).
— Karl T. Muth ?✈️? (@KarlMuth) March 3, 2022
But no one could have predicted or anticipated what would happen next. Enter the furry…
They're not yellow seas (first image), and they're definitely not XZLs (second image), while it's a close resemblance, the actual tires on that particular chassis above are Belshina-95s (third image) Belarusian made, the tread pattern is exactly that of the third image pic.twitter.com/omJARYXWTZ
— Jessa'Leih Vamantii V'oudescu (@ShojannahTuriri) March 3, 2022
Finally, I want to just highlight this thread by a former military rotary wing aviator about how to establish a no fly zone in Ukraine without having to use fighter jets or other air assets. I was having a conversation about stingers with a former boss about the stingers and how they’re being used in Ukraine right now and I have to say that Kay’s recommendation is brilliant and I wish I’d thought of it!
When I flew in Iraq and Afghanistan, even the idea of MANPADs being part of our threat, created all sorts of additional protocols. And Stinger, that’s a nightmare. As soon as a RU ac is taken out by Stinger, RU aircrews’ morale will head south. 3/
— Mikey Kay ??????? (@MikeyKayNYC) March 4, 2022
We shouldn’t underestimate the risk of escalation. Consider this scenario: an IL-76 flies into UKR airspace w/ 50+ RU paratroopers on it. You can a) take it out w/ a Stinger fired by UKR forces. Or b) if an NFZ, a NATO pilot has to make the call. I’d take a).
— Mikey Kay ??????? (@MikeyKayNYC) March 4, 2022
I’ll have more tomorrow about just how effective Ukraine’s Special Forces have been, as well as what I think is actually going on with Putin’s attempt to close Russia’s information space.
Update at 12:09 PM EST:
This is excellent news!
⚡️Zaporizhia nuclear power plant back under Ukrainian control
— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) March 5, 2022
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to go watch TV. I’ll check back in later.
guachi
From the outside it seems much of what’s happening is a race to get materiel to the right place. Bad Russian logistics vs. NATO + EU sending the best weaponry and supplies in the most easily portable form it can.
Sebastian
Oh man! I am honored!
One thing I just can’t get out of my head is the idea that UA is intentionally halting that convoy, letting them freeze and starve, and then take all that gear and turn it around against the Russians.
If this is indeed the plan and successful, has there ever been something similar?
CaseyL
Thank you , Adam! I know doing these posts is difficult, and I do appreciate them very much.
Regarding the de facto but non-NATO NFZ: I know Ukraine is getting shit loads of Javelins. Are they also getting fucktons of Stingers?
E.
@Sebastian: Well Thucydides is full of it certainly! Usually ships.
BC in Illinois
(Allow me to shift this forward from the end of the last thread.)
The effects of the war in Ukraine have reached the concert hall of St Louis.
I just came back from the St Louis Symphony Orchestra* performance of Mozart’s Requiem. The conductor and most of the rest of the program was changed:
I’ll bet he had trouble traveling; he’s based in Moscow. According to a member of the chorus, the new conductor says he got the phone call on Sunday: “Hey, hi, how you doing? You want to conduct the Mozart Requiem on Friday?”
*The SLSO actually checks that everyone has a vaccination card, and everyone keeps their mask on through the whole concert. As far as I could tell, everyone was cooperating. It didn’t dawn on me until the second piece of the Requiem that even everyone in the chorus had a mask on.
dr. bloor
Jessa’Leih channeling Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny there.
Renie
Seeing a tweet from a reporter from Kyiv Independent that “Zaporizhia nuclear power plant back under Ukrainian control”.
Great if true. Anyone seen anything confirming this?
Kent
@Sebastian: Sebastian. Been reading your comments. Just curious. Do you have a military background?
Kelly
@Sebastian: Yeah it’s like Ukrainians knew the Russian capabilities, their own capabilities, the lay of the land, had the patience and steady nerves to let the situation develop in their favor.
matt
I don’t understand the NFZ talk – Russian artillery and rifle cannot be interdicted by a NFZ.
Mallard Filmore
There are videos on YouTube that explain the term “tofu dregs”. Building things with shoddy materials, bad workmanship, to make shiny stuff that falls apart soon after first use.
marcopolo
I’m to bed now, but there seems to be a little chatter on twitter just now that with dawn breaking over there that last night was remarkably quiet across most of Ukraine’s battle zones. And, folks have no idea how to interpret that. Here’s hoping for the best–like Russia is running out of missiles, bombs, artillery, but that just doesn’t seem the least bit plausible.
Night everyone.
dmsilev
With regards to the meme at top, I feel reasonably confident that the farmer would be happy to discuss the sourcing of his AAA system. After all, it’s not taxable income or anything like that.
(and I think we all know that if there was any vaguely analogous situation here, the IRS would already be distributing Schedule AFV forms…)
Gin & Tonic
Thought I’d sleep but I can’t. Ilia Ponomarenko, usually reliable, is reporting that the nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia is back under Ukrainian control.
Kent
Running a serious NFZ in a modern war zone doesn’t just mean shooting down Russian planes, it also means taking out any and all Russian ground anti-aircraft batteries and radars that “paint” any NATO planes. With cruise missiles or smart munitions or whatever is at hand. At that point you are fully engaged in full combat and might as well just send in armored NATO divisions.
Which is why it will never happen.
Ksmiami
Thanks Adam. I think Putin is seeing the consequences of having only fearful yes men in your orbit And the results of a kleptocracy as evidenced by their hollowed out military machine.
dr. bloor
@BC in Illinois: I would imagine Sinkovsky never imagined a future for himself in which he was only allowed to travel abroad with the “minders” his teachers used to talk about when he was younger.
Leto
Russian Fighter jet was shot down today near Volnovakha, Donetsk region of Ukraine. (tail numbers match)
Also I heard you guys like when people take off on a motorcycle, with sidecar, pulling a mortar. And tax free!
Kelly
Thanks Adam and all the other knowledgeable jackals for these threads. Tremendous amount of detailed “content” out on the interwebs. You have all been a great resource for pointing out the bullshit.
Another Scott
Just amazing.
Cheers,
Scott.
Ksmiami
@Kent: yep. It means enforcing the zone thru direct superpower engagement and it would lead to Armageddon
Almost Retired
@Sebastian: I really appreciate your expertise and observations here, so thanks for your contributions.
marcopolo
@matt: One last comment–I think the idea is if the Russian airforce is cowed into inactivity via Stingers then the Ukraine forces have a lot more freedom to move around and destroy the Russian ground forces (like artillery–though missiles would still be a prob if Russian still has many left), plus there are still some Ukrainian planes left and they too would have more freedom of movement and ability to engage.
Peale
Maybe the plan was to put his armed forces out of the country and exhaust them so they wouldn’t be around to institute martial law. They might get in the way.
Sebastian
@Kent:
I do not, I have been studying war and military since I was a kid though. I am a well read layman if you will, which is the worst kind, or so I’ve been told.
Like many others I’ve spent an ungodly amount of time playing Sid Meier’s Civilization, so there’s that.
One advantage I have though is having lived through the Croatian War of Independence and this conflict has a ridiculous amount of similarities.
Martin
@Sebastian: I think it’s more the case of prioritization. If the convoy isn’t going anywhere due to Russian incompetence, then keep tabs on it and let them continue to burn resources to get it moving while you go secure the airport so Russia can’t use helicopters to bail them out.
Adam posted a day or two ago that Ukrainian forces had pushed forward to the Russia border, which I thought was odd, as did he, and wondered if it was a translation error, but I’ve seen it suggested that Ukraine is just being smart here.
Ukraine knows they can’t win this as a head on fight. With help from the west, they decide this is going to be a 3 day smash-and-grab. Their first priority is to make sure it’s not a 3 day smash-and-grab. Slow Russia down, force resupply for a 10 day mission, and hit the resupply because that’s a fight that Ukraine can take. Now the 3 day mission turned 10 day mission is a 30 day mission. Rinse and repeat.
We’re emotionally reacting to the destruction of Ukrainian cities, but I suspect Ukrainian leadership had resigned themselves to that outcome from the start. There was no preventing it, so accept it as a sunk cost and remove that from the primary mission. Russia is going to get their heavy armor in, but maybe Ukraine can keep them from getting their heavy armor back out again. An unsupplied and cut-off Russian army can be defeated by a bunch of civilians with AKs. Not easily, but if that’s your only win condition, you build to the only win condition.
If your resupply isn’t tanks and planes but Javelins and light arms, you kind of have no choice but to force this to be a close-up fight and throw everything you have into winning over the citizenry to fight.
Another Scott
@Renie: I haven’t been able to find anything like that yet. Nothing on the main https://twitter.com/kyivindependent feed that I can see.
I guess we’ll know soon, but my recollection is that there were stories a couple of days ago that the Russians had taken it (well before they did). The fog of war is real.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Renie: @Gin & Tonic: I just added this to the post as an update:
Martin
@Mallard Filmore: I wouldn’t blame China. Russian oligarchs can’t loot their national wealth by providing quality goods and services at a competitive price. You loot your national wealth by selling the state complete shit at inflated prices.
Russia has invited this problem with open arms. It’s basically the core competency of the country.
Soprano2
@BC in Illinois: Wow holy shit, that’s something else. That’s not exactly a light work. We performed it at the Kaufman Center in KC several years ago? Did you cry? I would have.
NotMax
Memories in Ukraine of the Holodomor under the Soviets may not be fresh but they are not buried.
Adam L Silverman
@CaseyL: Yes they are. Germany sent them 500 and we’ve got a larger amount than that we’ll be sending.
Annie
Adam, thank you for this post, and for all your posts. I always learn a lot from what you write. Nowadays I have to read them in the morning, otherwise I can’t sleep, but I do appreciate the information.
Jackie
“Zaporizhia nuclear power plant back under Ukrainian control”
If this is true, indeed excellent news!!!????
Sebastian
@marcopolo:
The Krugman link has an explanation. Russian artillery relies heavily on rocket artillery, so called Grad systems. The problem with those is the ammunition is super bulky, one salvo is a truckload. Reloading a battery requires something like 20-30 trucks I believe, of which Russia is in short supply and due to the distances from depots they can only make one or two trips per day.
So yes, they might literally have run out of ammo.
Martin
@marcopolo: Some of it is people just want something to be done, and the US has done no-fly zones, has been effective at it in a lot of previous conflicts. It’s kind of our first go-to intervention.
They don’t really understand how this conflict is different from the others, and what a no-fly actually entails. But it’s something, so they ask for it.
Adam L Silverman
@E.: You would not believe how many ships you can fit inside one Thucydides!
trollhattan
PRC surprises approximately nobody.
Fuckers
Adam L Silverman
@matt: No, but Russian fighter jets, fighter bombers, attack helicopters, transport helicopters, and transport planes can. Once you’ve cleared the airspace using the stingers/threat of stingers, then you use the Bayrakter drones and the Ukrainian Air Force to hit the ground based elements.
Martin
@BC in Illinois: Wife sings in a choir. There are masks specifically designed for singing.
Sebastian
@Another Scott:
You can bet that the Ukrainians are ratfucking the Russians on radio, leading them into ambushes.
There were early reports where civilians directed inquiring Russians the wrong way and into dead ends.
Kent
One has to think that a TREMENDOUS amount of munitions is being sent into Ukraine covertly. I am frankly astonished by all these Twitter announcements of this country or that country sending specific amounts of weapons. One has to think that this is just the tip of the iceberg and that the US and NATO forces have all manner of means to insert weapons in completely covertly without announcing it on Twitter.
Adam L Silverman
@Kelly: I had several students when I was assigned at USAWC who are from former Soviet states that are now part of NATO. They know their (potential) enemy very, very well.
different-church-lady
@Martin:
Worked for us 250 years ago.
dmsilev
Another Scott
3 weeks? 20 years? Nobody knows.
War creates its own dynamics.
And he rightfully makes the point that ceasefires do not guarantee an end of hostilities.
Here’s hoping Ukraine survives, as does the sensible post-war consensus that borders should not be changed by force.
Cheers,
Scott.
Martin
@CaseyL: Yes, they are getting loads of Stingers.
Last I saw, Ukraine had received or is in the process of receiving about 20,000 personal anti-tank weapons – from fancy ones like Javelins to more meat and potato relatively dumb ones. That’s a solid number given the amount of Russian armored units.
Stingers are more in the thousand range. Russia is keeping all of their fancy planes out of Ukraine so far. They have about 3,000 aircraft, so they don’t need as many of those, provided they are equally as effective (I don’t think they remotely are, though. Hitting a big fat tank is a lot easier than a plane doing 600 knots.)
Kelly
Now the the War on the Rocks article has informed me of Russian dependance on rail transport does anyone else remember a Ukrainian strike a few days ago on a Russian train with tank cars?
CaseyL
@Adam L Silverman: Good!
Sebastian
One thing I just can’t get out of my head is how this changes decades of military doctrine.
China must be watching this with terror. The absolutely worst news they can imagine is:
“Taiwan receives a shipment of 20,000 Javelins and signs license to manufacture Javelin, NLAW, and Stinger.”
Adam L Silverman
@marcopolo: Now that dawn has broken, the Russians have started bombarding Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Sumy.
Sebastian
@Martin:
The stinger is fairly useless against very fast planes and aircraft operating at high altitudes. It is however very effective against helicopters on which the Russians rely heavily for close air support and transport.
And Adam as said it scares the bejesus out of the pilots, affecting morale and making them much more cautious.
Medicine Man
@matt: Russian aircraft make any counter-attack in the open super dangerous for the Ukrainians. Without the threat of air retaliation, the defenders can try to infiltrate and envelope those columns stalled in the open.
Taking Russian air out of the equation entirely also makes them a lot less likely to detect any counter.
Adam L Silverman
@Sebastian: They are.
Chetan Murthy
@Sebastian: My understanding from reading some post someplace [so, pretty much random rumor *grin*] is that since the PLA gotta get across the Straits (100mi) the Taiwanese have invested heavily in truck-mounted anti-ship missiles. Shoot-and-scoot.
Stuart Frasier
@Sebastian: it’s probably the Harpoons the Taiwanese have bought that keep them up at night. A Chinese invasion force would end up at the bottom of the sea. The Javelins would get little exercise.
Adam L Silverman
@Kent:
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: I was the Cultural Advisor at III Corps for a while. Caltrops make me happy!
Mallard Filmore
@Martin:
“tofu dregs” is not a deliberate policy toward Russia. It infects crap road and bridge construction, rebar that can be bent by hand. Sink holes that swallow cars, water pipes that wriggling up out of the sidewalk like a Japanese horror film.
I am surprised that the CCP has not yet put people up against the wall for this.
Sebastian
@Martin:
Yes very much so. Don’t forget, the Ukrainians know that the Russians can’t leave the roads, have to idle their engines to keep warm, and are out of food. I saw videos yesterday, where Russian POW said they hadn’t eaten in 4 days. This means we are now on day 6 without food. Large-scale surrender might not be that far away, to be honest.
I don’t know how many troops that would be but can you imagine the disaster of say, 10,000 Russian POWs or more? Ukraine would be in the position to demand Russian capitulation.
dmsilev
@Adam L Silverman: A war in which the weapons include caltrops and internet memes.
Welcome to 2022. The 1980s-era cyberpunk writers seriously underestimated just how weird the future would be.
Wapiti
@Ksmiami: I wonder if the Chinese are taking the same message. Having a whole bunch of rich old guys wetting their beaks at every opportunity doesn’t yield the best results?
And yeah, it applies to the US as well.
Peale
@Sebastian: china hasn’t used its military. It’s built one and modernized it. Now China’s corruption problem probably isn’t nearly as bad as Russia’s, but I’m assuming that the first thing they’ll be doing is auditing everything they bought to make sure it’s actually there and working.
Mallard Filmore
@Sebastian:
Is the fate of tanks going to be anything like the fate of declining utility battle ships?
Kent
Taiwan is the semiconductor epicenter of the planet. And an enormous manufacturing center. Why the fuck can’t they make their own better versions?
topclimber
@Sebastian: Russians most definitely not going to win a cultural victory.
Peale
@Kent: where would they test them?
Mallard Filmore
@Sebastian:
Putin says they are really just one country, so why is it disgraceful to combine the two territories in this way?
Mallard Filmore
@Peale:
Well, yes they have … against India, and they were trounced by Viet Nam a few decades back.
Starboard Tack
@Mallard Filmore: Why would the Ukrainians want a shit hole country like that?
Peale
@Mallard Filmore: we’ll, since the world is already weird, I’d laugh if this ended with Zelensky claiming the right to install a pro Ukraine puppet in Russia. Or even better, ends up President of both countries.
Adam L Silverman
@Kent: I’m not sure javelins the size of a thumbnail would be particularly useful.
Carlo Graziani
I agree that SAM belts are the cheap, effective way to create a no-fly zone — Middle Eastern conflict nations were doing this quite well in to 1970s. But why just Stingers? The Ukrainian military has the professional training to handle higher-tech systems, with radar stations, longer range, much scarier. Higher-value targets, to be sure, but flood Ukrain with those SAM systems and stingers and when would you ever see another Russian sortie?
I still don’t understand why we can’t furnish them with some kind of rocket artillery systems, to allow them to do some counterbattery work. I must be missing something.
Alison Rose ???
@Adam L Silverman: I don’t know, maybe if they had like 10 zillion of them. It’s like “would you rather fight one elephant-sized duck or 1000 duck-sized elephants” — one one of the latter would be cute, but 1000 would probably fuck you up.
I don’t know what the hell I mean by this, it’s 10pm on Friday night and I work in customer service so by the end of every work week, my brain has half-melted.
Kent
@Adam L Silverman: Most of the bikes sold in the US come from Taiwanese factories. Your average Treks, Specialized, etc. They have a huge automobile and auto parts industry. They also have a large arms industry. They know how to make mechanical stuff. And with the tech know-how I can’t imagine making these sorts of precision guided weapons is beyond them.
Kent
I’d settle for them taking back Crimea. Who the hell wants to run Russia? Let the Russians sort that one out.
Kent
They already are in modern war between modern combatants. They are just armored coffins when you have things like laser guided munitions.
Calouste
Ukraine should have hundreds of Stingers by now. IIRC the Netherlands send them 200, Germany 500, and I think Denmark a bunch as well.
burnspbesq
The Ukrainians signed a joint venture with Baykar at the beginning of February to manufacture Bayraktar TB2s in Ukraine. If they’d had six months to get production up and running, Russia would have a much bigger problem than it currently has.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: It takes longer to get them into the theater of operations, positioned, and the Ukrainians trained up on them. They’re also quite visible targets. I expect they’ll be coming, but right now what we’re sending are bang for the buck.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose ???: Have a restful weekend!
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: The old saying is that Chinese manufacturing can offer products at every price point, but w/ commensurate quality. You can get top notch quality ware at medium-high prices, or shoddy knock offs at dirt cheap prices. You get what you pay for.
Adam L Silverman
@Kent: I was being a smartass and riffing off the size of microchips.
Morzer
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1499822066098655234
Interesting thread from Sergej Sumlenny:
Starboard Tack
@Adam L Silverman: I would be surprised if DARPA or someone isn’t developing swarms of small, lethal drones. Might not be good anti ship weapons but good against personnel.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: And it also appears that Taiwan manufactures anti-ship missiles. I don’t know of what quality, but I would guess, pretty decent, since it’s a national survival priority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hsiung_Feng_III
dm
@Sebastian: Well, there was Kongming, a Chinese general in the Three Kingdoms era who, on a foggy night, sent a bunch of boats laden with straw-bales across the river to enemy lines.
When the enemy saw the boats dimly through the fog, they shot arrows at them.
When the boats returned, Kongming had the 100,000 arrows he needed for his own troops.
NotMax
@Kent
Unlike with tanks, no one is going to be deceived by inflatable drones.
;)
burnspbesq
Somebody on Twitter made the point that that trainload of replacement vehicles is coming from Khabarovsk, 9,000 klicks away. Those vehicles aren’t going into action tomorrow, or even next week.
YY_Sima Qian
@trollhattan: Chinese censors are getting ever more prickly, & ever more annoying. & people watching the CCTV live coverage will notice a gap, which would draw more curiosity & attention than if they had just played it.
I was just on Jinri Toutiao, among the hot search topics associated w/ the Paralympics Opening Ceremony by Chinese netizens are queries to what Parsons had said, why was it not translated, etc. No relevant results, though, so clearly being actively censored. & he said nothing controversial!
Stupid & nauseating.
Sebastian
@topclimber:
Right? And I can’t remember how many times I waited too long and suddenly all the Pikemen upgraded to Modern AT and I was hosed.
NotMax
@trollhattan
China is highly reliant on a steady supply of Russian oil, sopping up something in the range of half of Russia’s exported crude.
YY_Sima Qian
@dm: I am fairly sure it was a story that the author of the Romance of Three Kingdoms invented.
The actual historical event relayed in the Strategies of Wei has Sun Quan, Lord of Wu, taking a single ship near the Wei encampment, in dense morning fog, to provoke the enemy. The Wei armies loosed a barrage of arrows that struck Sun’s ship on one side, so much so that Sun’s ship was listing to that side due to the weight of the struck arrows. Sun then ordered the ship to return near the Wei encampment, presenting the opposite side of the ship. As that side of the ship was struck by another barrage of arrows, the weight then balanced out & Sun could return home. The more reliable Annals of the Three Kingdoms does not have such an episode, at all.
Great tale, though, always a favorite from the novel.
Kent
So this war is good for them as they will be able to sop up as much Russian oil and gas as they want at fire sale prices when no one else wants to buy it. And the worse Russia falls the easier it is to pick up the pieces.
Anne Laurie
SF nerds used to reduce the economists’ Golden Triangle to a slogan: Cheap, fast, good — pick any two!
Beginning to seem like that’s a *military* truism, as well.
Sebastian
@Morzer:
I’ve been saying this since last week.
The first time I had a weird feeling about this whole thing was that border crossing CCTV cam in Veselivka.
Those tanks had to maneuver to the side and they were driving so jerky I immediately thought “there is no way these are experienced guys. Who drives like this??”
I had no proof and no idea what would unfold but it was the first time where I felt something was off.
YY_Sima Qian
@Mallard Filmore: “Togu Dreg” construction was a huge problem back from the 90s through to early teens. The issue came to a head in the numerous school buildings that collapsed during the massive Wenchuan Earthquake of 2008, killing thousands of children, while adjacent buildings were often lightly damaged. The huge popular backlash prompted CCP regime to finally confront the problem. There was a campaign to inspect all I constructed buildings in China, reinforce what could be repaired & demolish what could not be. Xi’s anti-corruption campaign has also helped. I do believe it is less of an issue in the last few years, no more stories of poorly constructed bridges collapsing. Quality of construction in China is still quite uneven, especially in terms of attention to the finer details, but the dangerously shoddy is rare these days.
The same pattern is repeated in food safety (prompted by the scandal of melamine containing milk powder) & vaccine quality (prompted by scandal of a batch of poorly made ineffective vaccine for children). Issues often takes a massive scandal w/ the attendant popular backlash to catch the attention of the central authorities. However, when the central authorities makes a focused effort to confront an issue, it tends to get solved, or at least greatly alleviated. The initial COVID response in Wuhan is another example.
As for manufactured products, as I said previously, there are offerings at every price point, w/ quality to match.
Sebastian
Luhansk and Donbas are so fucked. But you know who is really fucked? The GOP.
trollhattan
Per BBC, this.
Pray it’s true.
Sebastian
@burnspbesq:
I am wondering why they are shipping vehicles, don’t they have enough at the border? There are allegedly mobilizations in Luhansk and Donbas, the reservists are being handed Russian passports and sent to Russia and from there back into Ukraine.
A few thoughts on that:
All of this smells like one idiotic panic move after the other. The whole thing is so utterly Trumpian all the time.
trollhattan
@YY_Sima Qian: Your observations and thoughts are much appreciated, thanks!
Sebastian
@trollhattan:
I would not trust them at all. Ceasefires are used to consolidate positions and to keep fighting while simultaneously claiming the other side started. The Serbs used this so often it became a farce. I believe there were more than 15 ceasefires, all of them were bullshit.
patrick II
Rather than shelling nuclear power plants, why don’t the Russians just cut the power lines?
burnspbesq
Chinese broadcasters are breaching their agreement to carry Premier League matches this weekend. Apparently the expressions of solidarity with Ukraine are too much for government censors.
Kelly
Regarding the complications confiscating Russian oligarch super yachts, Maybe we should confiscate all the super yachts, just to be sure,
Mike in DC
30 days sounds about right. If Ukraine still holds most of the 10 largest cities, still has command and control, still runs air operations and is still getting Western supplies, then I think they’ve basically won. At that point the West should “clear its throat” and make noises about “debating further involvement” to pressure Putin to GTFO. Let them keep what they started out with, and absolutely nothing else–portions of the Donbas and Crimea.
If they don’t take the deal, then give Ukraine whatever it needs to push them out of the whole country and sink the Black Sea Fleet as a bonus humiliation.
Ruckus
@patrick II:
That’s far easier said than done.
Power lines out of a power plant are very high voltage. The local feed lines running down the street I live on have 66KV stickers on them. That’s 66,000V They might be higher voltage coming out of a power plant. A power plant does not produce 120v power, the transmission loses would render the power useless. The very high voltage power goes to a transformer station that first drops it down to a lot less, then local transformers take it down to the maximum locally used voltage. This process is far more productive. When I was in the navy I worked upon specialty equipment that used odd voltages and high frequency power. We had to generate this power from ships power with rather large motor generators. Working on that live was very dangerous and it wasn’t close to what comes out of a large power station.
Sebastian
@Mike in DC:
This gives the Russians too much credit. Large parts of the army are cut off from supplies, without fuel and food in enemy territory. Hunger and freezing cold are really detrimental to morale.
The Russians cannot withdraw, they cannot press forward, they must surrender. But a large-scale surrender of Russian forces will cause a chain reaction, freeing up Ukrainian forces equipped with “new” hardware to push against Luhansk and Donbas who won’t stand a chance against such an offensive.
Then there is the political and strategic fallout. All other regions will explode (or implode?) due to the power vacuum left by a defeated Russia. Belarus will be one of the first. Violent unrest in Russia is basically guaranteed.
Poland might make a move on Kaliningrad. There will be a shitton of old scores settled.
The most important thing will be to secure the fucking nukes.
Origuy
The other day I posted a link to a video by a guy called Hilbert, talking about the history of the Ukrainian flag. He has another video worth watching. While we weren’t paying attention in the last 30 years, the Russians and the Chechens had two wars.
Why Are Chechens Fighting On Both Sides In Ukraine?
Kelly
@Ruckus: My brother made a very good living building high voltage transmission lines across western USA. Yes, the big power lines are very dangerous to work on. However blowing some of the tower legs will shut transmission down from a safe distance.
Mallard Filmore
@YY_Sima Qian:
I knew COVID was going to be really bad when China reacted, to my untrained eyes, as if this was a weaponized leak from that lab. The lockdown, welding violators into apartments. Looking at what China was willing to do, and then at Trump … oh shit. We’re in for it.
Ruckus
@Kelly:
The ruskies seem to be a bit short on supplies and abilities for something like that. I mean sure there might have been someone that could figure that out but all things considered…..
Also their pre planning seems a bit sketchy and it seems they didn’t want to damage to much that would have to be rebuilt for them to operate. They didn’t seem to mind to take out people, homes and small businesses but I’d bet they imagined that the public works type of stuff would be there for them to take over.
Also Patrick specifically stated cutting the lines….. But your point is correct.
patrick II
Who is the most unctuous , worst hypocrite — Comey or Barr?
Chetan Murthy
@patrick II: Comey, no contest. “Elect Women” FFS. What chutzpah!
YY_Sima Qian
@Mallard Filmore: China reacted like COVID is a highly transmissible SARS w/ 10% mortality rate. Thank heavens the Wuhan strain was “only” 1% infection mortality rate R0 of “only” 2.
Mallard Filmore
@YY_Sima Qian: I hope to never find out what they would do when something worse happens
What they did was breathtaking enough.
patrick II
@Ruckus:
O.K. then, I’ll go with blowning up some towers? It just seems to make more sense than blowing up something that might create a nuclear cloud headed towards Russia.
Noname
@Origuy: Thanks for both these videos. I hope your friend’s kitties are doing well.
opiejeanne
Has anyone heard from Mary G? Or about her? I’ve been out of the loop today.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Talk of Russian readiness brought Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising back to mind, and a weird term I heard there: “gundecking”. Turns out that’s a specific military term for falsifying reports, especially readiness reports. It was a plot point because one of the early warnings in the book was the Red Army shooting several colonels for falsifying readiness reports and publishing it in the army newspaper.
It was taken as a sign that the Red Army was potentially putting itself on a war footing.
With post-Soviet Russia turning into a kleptocracy under Putin, and corruption presumably infiltrating at all levels, down to military unit motor pools, I suspect that there were a lot of gundecked military readiness reports that were taken as gospel, contributing to Putin’s false sense of how ready his invasion force was to take out an entrenched, motivated adversary.
mrmoshpotato
@opiejeanne: Last I read yesterday or the day before, she was in the hospital, but still commenting here.
Sanjeevs
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: I bet there’s a lot of “Good Soldier Svejk” dumb insolence throughout.
opiejeanne
@mrmoshpotato: I think that’s the last I saw of her, describing ice chips as a wonderful thing.
prostratedragon
@burnspbesq:
Today in Sun Tzu:
prostratedragon
@YY_Sima Qian: Ah! Turning the other cheek.
Barbara
Thanks Adam.. Keeping my fingers crossed. As I read this I kept thinking “my kingdom for a Michelin!”
Amir Khalid
@trollhattan:
Per a more recent BBC story:
satby
@opiejeanne: @mrmoshpotato: I sent her a message on Twitter this morning, letting her know people are thinking about her and keeping good thoughts for her recovery. If she’s in a CCIU though, she may not be able to reply for a while.
Chris Johnson
@Martin: This. I can’t say as I had good reason to be certain of this, but I thought the WHOLE plan was for Ukraine to ‘fall back’ and resign itself to an insurgency campaign that Russia was far less capable of dealing with. In light of this, Ukraine not losing lots of cities and facilities is amazing. If the intention always was to take a bloody nose and then make life hell for the Russian occupiers, Ukraine did impossibly well… and have turned their position into a way to absolutely gut Russia’s war machine.
This would be why China cannot take a position. They need not only Russian oil, but they need to be Russia’s only friend and ally once Russia suffers the consequences of their actions. Exposed as a giant fake, Russia’s still a pretty major (and nuclear) power, and China’s job is to cultivate Russia as basically a vassal state, as the only friend Russia had, and to take advantage of the sheer hatred and frustration of Russia/Putin loyalists. Those won’t be a majority but there will be a hell of a lot of them, especially as Russia’s puppet states break away and join EU or NATO. The hardliners will retreat to Russia’s core, and double down.
The big problem right now is not how to untangle this war, but how to untangle the NEXT war produced by Russia’s actions bringing on its own worst nightmare. They will have to surrender and be greatly reduced in power, and won’t like it one bit.
Chris Johnson
@Amir Khalid: Everything Russia says will be a lie, especially about ceasefires, even if lying as a pretext to bomb the helpless is an outright war crime. They don’t care. It’ll be impossible to negotiate with Russia while they are like this, so basically don’t. No cease fire they declare is real.
Barry
@Sebastian: (quoting) “Taiwan receives a shipment of 20,000 Javelins and signs license to manufacture Javelin, NLAW, and Stinger.”
Forget Javelins. Several thousand anti-ship missiles and 10,000 anti-aircraft missiles.
oatler
@dm: Dorothy Gale used a similar strategy when she taunted a talking apple tree.
Kirk Spencer
@YY_Sima Qian:
That’s the old saying. But please note China makes most of Apple’s iPhones.
Jørgen
@Calouste: Danish press reported that the weapons should have arrived a couple of days ago.
debbie
@trollhattan:
The BBC was reporting at about 6 am ET that it hadn’t held and Russians were back to shelling civilians.
debbie
MomSense
I’m on Instagram making comments on all the pages from Russia. For me it is mostly knitters, ballet dancers and ballet companies. Kirov ballet tried to tell me they don’t discuss politics but they haven’t taken down the comments yet. We’ll see. The knitters who sell patterns and finished objects are posting to say they are switching over to telegram. I’m going in the comments to tell them what is happening. Feels futile but every little bit hopefully helps.
debbie
@MomSense:
I’ve listened to a few BBC interviews with Russian citizens. They have absolutely no idea what’s going on. I guess propaganda really works. //
Geminid
An update on the talks to revive the JCPOA aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear program as reported by Reuters:
The negotiations are described as “indirect” because Iran’s diplomats refuse to meet with their American counterparts on account of the U.S. sanctions against their country. So the Chinese, Russian, and E3 negotiators have been meeting with the Iranians and then with the Americans to hammer out the deal.
Meanwhile, yesterday the International Atomic Energy Agency chief, Rafael Grossi, met with Iranian officials in Teheran for discussions concerning “open files” on Iran’s nuclear program, e.g. incidents of unexplained trace radioactivity in several Iranian sites. At a joint press conference with Grossi an official said the Iran would provide documents explaining the activity by June 21.
Grossi and the IAEA are not parties to the Vienna talks but will play a major role in monitoring and thus indirectly, enforcement.
MomSense
@Geminid:
I thought the lesson for Iran from Bush’s axis of evil was get nukes quick. After watching Ukraine and Russia there’s no way in hell Iran wouldn’t want nukes.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman:
ICYMI, …
Thread:
Includes pointer to rusi.org article.
(via VladDavidzon)
Cheers,
Scott.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@debbie:
UK’s Sky News is pretty apocalyptic in terms of reportage. They aren’t doing the pundit thing, but are being harsh in their commentary as they run video on Russian atrocities, and they’re doing coverage where they’re asking victims about their experiences.
I find it refreshing as hell to watch news that doesn’t consist of talking heads like Chuck Todd and Wolf Blitzer and John King and Skeletor Greenspan telling me what bare snippets mean without any real coverage.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Geminid:
I mean, the thing about Iran is that there’s only one nation panicked about an Iranian weapon, and it wags the American Congress and Executive Branch at that nation.
Irony is defined by the notion that that nation isn’t a signatory to the NPT and has nuclear weapons of its own.
Liminal Owl
I know nothing about military history, strategy, etc. (OK, I know what caltrops are) but am trying to understand the discussion. Meanwhile, you might enjoy this (via TizzyEnt, on Twitter): https://twitter.com/jimbarrett/status/1498537628077068290?s=21
Also, am I the only person who keeps having to pause to mentally translate CCP, because of studying Russian back when we had to refer to CCCP?
Geminid
@MomSense: If there is no JCPOA the Iranians would still have a hard time getting nukes. The Israeli government has made it clear that they will bomb Iranian facilities if they get close to a weapon. Significantly, the U.S says that Iran will not be allowed to become a nuclear state, and while we are not so vocal as the Israelis the U.S. has never taken military action “off the table.”
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
I predict this piece for late April:
”Putin’s aggressive military strike against Poland and the Baltics, which I do not support, is still an appropriate rebuke to NATO neoliberal aggressive encirclement of the Russian State and the groupthink that happens in the West.”
– by Glenn Greenwald, probably
Geminid
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Few if any nations in that region or the world want to see Iran with nuclear arms. The Chinese are very keen on limiting the Iranian program, as are the Europeans.
While Israel is frequently blamed for Trump withdrawing from the JCPOA, the Saudis were equally vociferous about the agreement. If they had not been, I’m not sure Trump would have done it. In any event, Republican opposition to “Obama’s treaty” was probably as large a factor in Trump’s decision as any nation’s.
debbie
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I am going to put my bet on why Putin closed Russia media; Putin is going to issue his own version of Order 227 and doesn’t want his rural base to hear about they might tossed in a Gulag because their son’s unit got overrun after it ran out of ammo and fuel.
Lyrebird
Not the only one!
Another Scott
Oof.
Cheers,
Scott.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
Out of curiousity, I went to see what is happening in the world of Russian Orthodoxy. It’s clear that here in the US, both ROCOR and OCA have read the room and are unabashedly supportive of the victims in Ukraine.
In Moskva, of course, Kirill is a “both sides, blood and soil, shared heritage” shitweasel. Technically, Ukraine is under his Patriarchate, but I’d guess that the messages back and forth have been pointedly shitty, and the Ukrainian bishops may be looking for a change.
Geminid
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: I think that Ukraine’s Orthodox Church has claimed it’s independence from the Moscow Church already. Not that the Russian church went along with the decision.
Chief Oshkosh
@debbie: I wonder if Ben Shapiro shows up multiple times because he’s a plagiarist? ;)
Geoduck
@oatler: It was the Scarecrow who did the taunting, not Dorothy. (Another deliberate sign that he had brains all along, and never really needed the wizard’s help.)
Gin & Tonic
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Most of the Orthodox faithful in Ukraine are in the Kyiv patriarchate. Kirill is meaningless to them. It is an independent church, with Bartholomew’s blessing.
opiejeanne
@satby: Thank you.
dnfree
@YY_Sima Qian: your posts are a constant delight, honestly.
WaterGirl
@Carlo Graziani:
SAM belts?
Calouste
As predicted by someone in the know on Twitter a few days back:
artem1s
From the College Radio Foundation
Dear Friends,
In extremely challenging circumstances, the students in Ukraine have put together an audio update for us. This time it’s in multiple languages for the world to hear. We were told that would probably not hear from the students again, as the situation in Ukraine is dire, so we are grateful to hear from them.
Have a listen, it’s just under 2 minutes:
Update From Ukraine
We are also planning a day/time when we can play the content together as a community at the same time. We are planning for Thursday, March 10 at 10 am ET / 4 pm CET. More info coming on Monday.
Best wishes,
Dr. Rob Quicke
Founder, College Radio Day
The College Radio Foundation
http://www.collegeradio.org
debbie
Time to stop focusing on sanctions and hurt Putin where it *will* hurt him. Expel Russia from the UN. Doesn’t matter that Russia’s a charter member; Russia has violated international law time and time again. Sanction his fucking ego with expulsion from institutions he thinks prove his ego is justified.
Subsole
@Sebastian: How so?
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Crap, and I thought I was being facetious yesterday or the day before when I cracked that Vlad was going to have to bring back the commissars and their orders to shoot their own troops.
Subsole
@Sebastian:
God, I know. I want to just grab people by the throat, show them all this, and say “Behold, the Republican vision for America.”
This shit right here is why we have to stop them.
Subsole
@Ruckus: True. That stuff will turn you into a matchstick if you don’t respect it. You don’t even necessarily have to be holding onto the line.
How do they step it down in a ship?
Subsole
@Sebastian:
Were I Ukrainian, I really don’t know how comfortable I’d be riding to battle on abandoned Russian hardware at this stage…
I mean, it obviously didn’t work too well if UKR ended up capturing it, right? ;)
More seriously, the stuff is old, mothballed, falling apart – and kind of second-echelon when it was new. Wouldn’t it be a liability to use it – taking on lame horses, as it were?
Sebastian
@Barry:
Yes, agreed. I am sure they already have those.
The problem with those large missiles is that they are fairly big and will be targets of air strikes or cruise missiles.
Stingers and NLAWs are so light, you can basically give every infantryman/woman one as standard equipment (I am slightly exaggerating). We are seeing as much in Ukraine now.
This makes any invasion a non-starter because:
All that basically guarantees a fiery bloodbath for any invader. I believe the experiences from this war allow us to establish the hypothesis that any sufficiently large island is no longer conquerable with conventional methods.
Sebastian
@Subsole:
The gear isn’t that bad, especially the tanks, they just ran out of gas haha
I would be very concerned about anything with wheels though.
I have a hunch we are seeing a bit of a lull because the Ukrainians have to sift through the salvaged hardware and make it operable. Adam and Omnes could probably tell us how long this would take and what challenges one would likely face.
Subsole
@patrick II: Barr. Comey at least had the whiff of serving some vision of America, however warped. Even if it was only so it could reflect his massive f*cking ego.
Barr is an Opus Dei zealot. He is fundamentally opposed to the Enlightenment and this country it produced. To sell oneself as a champion of a society while trying to undermine that society so his check-signers can drag us all back to the Bronze Ages in the name of their exceedingly small, cruel vision of Christ is just…
I lack the English to articulate how loathsome Barr is.
Subsole
@debbie: Hell, I’ve been to the Texas equivalent of a Midwestern diner. I coulda’ told ya that.
YY_Sima Qian
@Kirk Spencer: As someone involved in the consumer electronics business, I am intimately familiar w/ the best & the worst that Chinese manufacturing can offer. The best can rival that from Germany or Japan (at somewhat lower costs), & the worst is the worst.
Sebastian
@Chris Johnson:
That is without any doubt true. They will use this to bring any reinforcements to the battle lines and most importantly, resupply.
Question is, do they have the capability? On the other hand, every day that passes allows Ukraine to equip more of the 80-100k Ukrainians that have returned from abroad, have them organized, relieve units, and move combat-hardened units toward Luhansk and Maruipol.
Also, with every passing day more Bayraktars are in the air and UA and other Special Forces are going on the hunt. The Russian and Belarussian border are a bit dicey for NATO Special Forces but anything on the Black Sea coast? I’ll bet any money that British Royal Marines and US Navy SEALS are already there. If I were a Russian officer, I’d be very concerned about snipers.
Subsole
@debbie: As James Palmer said, it is going to interesting watching which groups develop funding problems over the next couple months.
Subsole
@Sebastian: I wonder what the countermeasure to all these infantry-portable GMSs will be…
I mean, besides the injudicious application of high explosives/artillery. Which wouldn’t really be practical anyway.
YY_Sima Qian
@burnspbesq: Live broadcast on both Premier League & Bundesliga have been cancelled on all platforms in China, apparently because both leagues have changed their logos to Ukrainian colors. Needless to say, many football fans in China are pissed. At least the platforms are giving refunds. Not sure how long the ban will last, it’s 1 week to start.
Subsole
@Sebastian: I am a less-than-well-read layman on this stuff. If I had the choice between walking and being stuck in a vintage BMP (I think that’s the one that has gas tanks in the troop exit hatches?) I think I’d walk. Seems healthier.
Subsole
@YY_Sima Qian: Interesting. What makes the high-end stuff more affordable than peer competitors? Scale of production? Access to materials?
Mike in NC
@Sebastian: I wonder if there aren’t already NATO units of “Little Green Men” running around Ukraine. Years ago I was in Scotland for three weeks on a NATO exercise. Met with Royal Marines, British paras who had served in Iraq, French Foreign Legion, and a company of Ukrainian naval infantry. All hard as nails and they’d make quick work of teenaged Russian conscripts.
Bill Arnold
@Starboard Tack:
Anti-personnel versions of such would not be a world I want to live (or more likely, die) in. There needs to be a major push to get such things banned, entirely, their possession severely punished internationally. IMO.
Drones that attacked positively identified military equipment would be a little less frightful, though the ID stuff is just machine learning models that can be swapped out. Identification/automated attack on uniformed personnel would be an even greyer area. (Again, the identification mechanism could be swapped out for something else, e.g. genocidal.)
Ancient Atheist
@Martin: Rinse and repeat. I went to bed with pontificators talking about a ten-year, twenty-year war with Russia controlling parts of Ukraine and Ukrainians controlling others. Is this a reality we must accept? One mad man with nuclear weapons will cause a twenty-year world war and Ukraine will be the battlefield. What madness! We just quit – That’s what we do now is quit. Not win or lose; just quit. – a twenty-year war somewhere over there. Most folks can’t tell you with whom or how much the war cost in lives and wealth. It’s just sad. On a positive note, we are rounding up those oligarchs and got them on the run.
Another Scott
Via Oryx…
I am no expert. It’s always good to be skeptical of commentary on pictures and video, but it’s clear that Ukraine is putting up a strong fight. And it might say something about how small Putin’s modern, effective war machine actually is??
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill Arnold
@MomSense:
If Iran gets obvious nukes, as opposed to 2 month breakout plus ambiguity about whether or not they already have a few hidden weapons, then Saudi Arabia will get nukes. Then it’s 2.5 theocracies (counting Israel as 0.5) with nukes, all several minutes away from each other by missiles with nuclear warheads.
And the other is that Iran is a large and populous country and invading/holding it is not an option even for the US military.
These are obvious counters to the very real truth that nuclear weapons powers don’t get bothered much. Iranians are very very good at estimating and balancing probabilities, though some have their minds rotted a bit by religion, so we’ll see. I am hopeful that an agreement can be reached, and the frantic Israeli activity suggests that the negotiations might succeed. (Man of the Israelis have been idiots about Iran, especially under Netanyahu.)
Geminid
@Bill Arnold: I have not seen these reports of “frantic Israeli activity.” They did do a long range exercise over the Mediteranean Sea last month that some say imitated an attack on Iran, with a U.S. Air Force observer. But it didn’t sound very frantic.
I also saw reports of Vice President Harris and istaeli Defense Minister Gantz meeting at the Munich Security Conference. In his remarks to Harris, Gantz emphasized that any new agreement must be monitored rigorously, and that the IAEA’s “open files” on Iran’s nuclear program need to be properly investigated. Which is what IAEA Director Grassi was doing in Teheran yesterday.
The optics of Gantz’s and Harris’s meeting was interesting, especially the photo of them standing in front of their nations’ flags. They were making a four- handed handshake intended to emphasize the close fridndship between the two nations.
Geminid
@Bill Arnold: I think Turkey would also work to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran did. It certainly has the industrial base.
On the other hand, is thought that the Saudis would just buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan.
susanna
Thank you, Adam. It’s good to be well informed from your writings, as I’m too old to explore all the information about what’s going on, and how the world got us here, etc.
You are a trusted advisor. And enormously valued.
Sebastian
@Subsole:
The APC made sense when all you would fear from the other side was a tank whom you probably could somewhat outmaneuver, infantry which would shoot at you with rifles or a light machine gun, shrapnel from mortars and other artillery, or a mine.
The only thing I can imagine would be either some sort of micro-drone swarms around the vehicle to intercept NLAWs et al or some groundbreaking development in armor, perhaps some weird composites that prevent hollow charges to penetrate the armor. Or energy shields. Or somehow zapping the rocket with a laser or lightning bolt, but now we are in SciFi territory.
T
YY_Sima Qian
@Subsole: Huge economy of scale, very integrated supply chains (most components can be sourced locally or in-region), abundant & relatively cheap technical resources (think engineers, as opposed to line operators), excellent infrastructure. However, the big advantage of Chinese manufacturing these days is speed, & not so much cost. This is quite clear in consumer electronics, where models are refreshed every 6 months to a year. Nowhere else can support such cycle cadence of design, prototyping, pilot production, mass production, end of life. All the cool gadgets on kickstarter are prototyped then mass produced in Shenzhen & surrounding regions.
Mike S
@Adam L Silverman: I may have missed you writing about this article but if not I find it to be a pretty concise reading of how we got here and what we need to do. It also tracks quite well with things you’ve been saying for a long time now.
https://eand.co/is-this-world-war-iii-eed6d0e2dec1