Translation: there's a new Iron Curtain coming. https://t.co/a09jiEEK3L
— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) March 3, 2022
What many Republicans would consider heaven pic.twitter.com/WjFOuqAWXh
— Keith Edwards (@keithedwards) March 4, 2022
Russia's media censor says it's blocked the websites of the BBC, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, Deutsche Welle, and Meduza for "spreading fakes about Ukraine." This is basically all the foreign-based media reporting in Russian.https://t.co/eu6TQponRE
— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 4, 2022
This comes after Putin signed a law that effectively criminalizes any public opposition to or independent news reporting about the war against Ukraine. Taking effect as soon as Saturday, it could make it a crime to simply call the war a “war," NYT reports.https://t.co/PWp86ahyid https://t.co/9uvZEdchbe
— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) March 4, 2022
Bloomberg News is temporarily suspending the work of its journalists inside Russia after President Vladimir Putin signed legislation that criminalizes independent reporting in the country.https://t.co/W4edLWoM1Y
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) March 4, 2022
I believe there is only one major news organization still based in Russia that is still reporting on the invasion of Ukraine. That would be @mediazzzona, the brainchild of @sssmirnov, @tolokno, @all_mary, and @gruppa_voina. Yes, that’s right: Pussy Riot now stands alone.
— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) March 4, 2022
Last year, I asked Leonid Volkov why he thought Russia had never attempted Great Firewall style internet censorship. He told me the issue was that, unlike China, Russia had never developed adequate substitutes for western sites. Looks like we'll seehttps://t.co/6FZyfpdl71 https://t.co/VWv3hjN8CS pic.twitter.com/xIjZZ5weFr
— Josh Keating (@joshuakeating) March 4, 2022
I want to elaborate on something I just said on @11thHour and emphasize a point @McFaul was making as well.
Putin is going to try to hermetically seal Russia off from the world, as if it's the USSR in 1982. He doesn't want Russians to see what's happening in Ukraine. /1— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) March 4, 2022
Putin, as Mike noted, will rely on an old, rural base for his support. (Sound familiar?) He will try to crush everyone who has a smartphone or computer who can get on the internet. He will introduce draconian measures to this end because *he doesn't know what else to do* /3
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) March 4, 2022
Anyway, it's not 1983. Putin can't seal off Russia. But in a way, that makes him more desperate and more dangerous. Darker days ahead, but stay calm. /5x
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) March 4, 2022
debbie
That prediction about martial law being imposed today wasn’t so wrong.
Sebastian
Nichols misses a few crucial points and he should really know better. A few facts first:
Sebastian
The Northern front is an unmitigated disaster.
Old Man Shadow
It’s frustrating to play this game while hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people are suffering. And we all know that it will get worse and we cling to a shaky hope that it will get better.
God, I want to see Putin dragged from the Kremlin and given justice by the Russian people.
Sebastian
One more on mud and tires.
Sebastian
More high-tech headaches for Russia are incoming …
Adam L Silverman
Since AL has just put this post up, I’m taking the night off.
You all have a nice Friday.
Lyrebird
Now we have the tyrant’s response to those people daring to toast their fallen comrade, the stock exchange, on air. To the retired Yandex guy who had said something like there’s no law against making other headlines show up than the approved ones. Well now there is.
And gosh Tom Nichols is saying we should brace ourselves for how bad it’s gonna get, like it wasn’t bad enough already. Don’t get me wrong, I am not questioning his interpretation, I’m inclined to think he’s right. I just want more Ukrainians to survive than not.
Not useful for me to go again through the litany of if onlys like if only we had listened more to Pussy Riot back then, if only the USA had had a different response in 2014… We didn’t. We’re here.
Grateful Balloon Juice is here. Hugging my family members extra. Making at least some contribution to funds for Ukraine.
ETA: glad to read about Turkish shipments, just wondering if maybe it would be better not to tweet about them. Said by someone who admits she does not know much about this.
Ken
This sounds more like going full-on hermit kingdom than China’s “great firewall”.
Lyrebird
@Adam L Silverman: You have a good Friday night y’hear? Thanks again for all the background info you’ve been sharing.
Chris T.
Re the Edwards tweet (“what many Republicans would consider Heaven”): can we airdrop all the “fake news” complainers into Russia now?
Sebastian
I’ve been shouting from the rooftops since this thing started that UA forces are superbly equipped. Small arms, body armor, boots, uniforms, AT and AA missiles, night vision, secure radios, you name it.
Here are the weapons of the Russian Special Forces: from the 50ies. Let that sink in.
Adam L Silverman
@Sebastian: The best part of this thread is when the female furry shows up to correct all the men that these aren’t Chinese knockoffs of Michelins, but Belarusian knockoffs of the Chinese knockoffs of the Michelins.
Sebastian
@Lyrebird:
The information is open source and it is one NATO country sending transport planes to another.
PJ
@Old Man Shadow: The longer the war goes on, the worse it will be for Putin and his cronies. Unfortunately, it will also be worse for the Ukrainians. The question is, who can hold out longer?
Adam L Silverman
@Sebastian: They’re shipping all the old stuff in from the far east of Russia. Give this thread a look:
https://twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/1499706034260422659
wombat probability cloud
@Adam L Silverman: You deserve a break. Thanks for all of your wisdom and work on this.
dmsilev
@Lyrebird:
Not exactly a secret that a whole bunch of countries are sending a whole bunch of weaponry and support gear to Ukraine. There’s arguably some value in broadcasting that fact as well; even with the censorship and so forth, some of that’s going to leak into Russia.
Villago Delenda Est
It makes total sense that dictator-wannabe TFG would call Putin “savvy”.
Gvg
I remember reading about some funny logistic screwups we did in WWII. Sending stuff carefully stored away at the end of WWI to Australia for instance and how carefully ship loading had to be planned so the ship rode the ocean balanced and then how first loaded would be the last unloaded so you had to have planned carefully to have say defensive weapons ready in case you arrived under attack…The screwups I recall reading about were trivial compared to this. This actually makes people wonder about the whole Russian military. I mean in theory, corruption weakens any agency, and only promoting yes men is another weakness, but I really didn’t imagine anything like this.
Given enough time, they could learn and fix this like the Soviets did before I guess, but do they have the time?
debbie
@Sebastian:
Are there any quotes of Putin’s begging?
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: Before you leave is there anyway that Ukraine can target the Russian artillery units to slow the bombardment?
PJ
@Sebastian: Yeah, I don’t think it’s a secret that NATO countries are supplying weapons to Ukraine. How and where they are getting them into Ukraine, on the other hand, is probably something best not shared online.
ETA: I see @dmsilev got there before me.
Adam L Silverman
@Ksmiami: Yes. But I’m not sure they have the right air assets for it. The Bayraktar drones can be used for this. As can other drones. They can also be targeted from the ground if you can get a team with RPGs or Javelins or NLAWs in close enough to do it.
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
Hahahaha there are so many comments I didn’t even see that.
I really wonder if UA is focusing on the defense of Kyiv and counting on the Russians capitulating from hunger. Then a counteroffensive in the South.
Another Scott
ICYMI, …
Cheers,
Scott.
Sebastian
@debbie:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t6km9r/putin_today_we_have_no_bad_intensions_please_dont/
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Adam L Silverman: Only a matter of before the Russians start deploying Napoleonic War re-enactors.
Villago Delenda Est
@Gvg: Using wooden slats as “reactive armor” because the oligarch defense contractors needed new yachts is a consequence of the endless corruption in Russia.
dmsilev
@debbie: See, for example, this, from this morning.
The Dangerman
If Putin develops a serious case of lead poisoning, who is Number 2?
I suppose you might be able to hermetically seal the country if you turned off the Net. Safe assumption that people would notice.
Ohio Mom
“Darker days ahead but stay calm” is something of a cliffhanger. Why and how should I stay calm? I guess that will require a deep dive into Tom Nichol’s Twitter and it’s too late and I’m too tired right now.
Has Russia ever had a Golden Age, a period that is inspiring? Maybe there was a hopeful moment just after the Soviet Union fell apart but that devolved quickly. It just seems like a country that lurches from one miserable incarnation to another. That has to shape the national culture and psychology, and not in good ways.
HumboldtBlue
Despite some ugly racist scenes at border crossings from Ukraine, there are still some kinder moments when humans can still be bros.
Also, I make it a point to turn the news off for an hour or two, and sports helps a lot in that distraction.
The Sixers have won five straight games since signing James Harden, and I know because this little man told me.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: can we give them drones? Like asap
Sebastian
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t6phhx/croatian_military_attache_right_refuses_to_accept/
Not sure if the picture is still available but the Croatian Military Attache refused to take a letter from the Russians protesting Croatia sending “volunteers” (Special Forces)
Hahaha suck it Vova. This brotherhood was forged in blood. Btw, Croatia has a little Trump/Orban problem. The current Prime Minister (and the last) are a bit too close to Putin. During the last NATO exercises he withdrew the Croatian troops due to Ukraine. He is in hot water now.
Villago Delenda Est
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Woody Allen waving a saber around.
Lyrebird
@Sebastian: @dmsilev: Ok, got it.
Yeah it’s not much as consolation while the bombs are still dropping, but the massive crackdown at home confirms that he’s in many ways losing. Still inflicting terrible damage, but if all were going to plan, no need for martial law.
The Ukrainian military has quite a lot to be proud of even in this hellish time.
Sebastian
@Ohio Mom:
Under Peter the Great.
debbie
@Sebastian:
@dmsilev:
Thanks and thanks.
Ken
Mongolia weighs its chances at a comeback….
Chacal Charles Caltrop
@Adam L Silverman: if China ever wanted to help itself to any piece of Siberia, now would be the time.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Villago Delenda Est: just about, if I remember by Cold War wargaming days of my misspent youth correctly those are the Russian third line units with like over 30, more like in their 40s reservists. Doubtless telling each other stories about Afghanistan on the train ride.
Chacal Charles Caltrop
@Ken: I see we think alike
Mallard Filmore
@Adam L Silverman: Russia is going to end up a client state of China.
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
Holy smokes. I bet it was meticulously maintained.
I have a hunch the train network in Russia is going to experience technical problems fairly soon.
Earlier I saw a bunch of APCs with fairly new camo paint and I was worried they had indeed sent the crappy stuff first and are now sending the modern stuff. I don’t know enough about the variants, folks on Twitter say it’s old because no 30mm auto-cannon.
I’ll try to find it.
Also, so much info, I missed this here completely. Paul Krugman, of all people, pointed out something I had a weird hunch about, namely how many support vehicles do the Russians have? They strike me as focused on the glory numbers: tanks, APC, artillery, and forget the maintenance and support stuff.
matt
Boy, Putin issuing all of these repressive measures sure puts Republicans in a tough spot – they want to leap up out of their chairs and applaud, but it might hurt them with the public.
Ksmiami
@Ken: Genghis Khan was a smarter and more empathetic leader than Putin.
Sebastian
@Lyrebird:
I think I mentioned it the other day, I spoke with Ukrainian friends and I cheered them up by saying, the casualties notwithstanding, it’s a good thing for these buttugly Soviet buildings to be destroyed. They can and will build beautiful Ukrainian architecture and thus create an even bigger cultural shift from Russia.
matt
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you so much for what you’re doing here. Between this and LgM this is the best coverage in the US.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Ohio Mom:
Early 60s Russia with stated aspirations toward an anti-racist stance had potential (plus an inclination toward mid-century modern). Sadly, that got lost in the Brezhnev years.
Villago Delenda Est
@Mallard Filmore: The circle is complete, then. They were a client state of Genghis Khan once.
Kent
I expect they don’t want the Russians, just their stuff. So they will buy up all the forests, mines, and resources but let the Russians keep Russia.
Basically turn Russia into the Congo.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Kent: China does want Siberia back.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: Here’s some more pics of him.
Pictures at the links
Villago Delenda Est
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Vladivostok? Sits in territory the Russians took from the Chinese in the 18th Century. Hell, yes, the Chinese want large chunks of Siberia.
Adam L Silverman
@Ksmiami: It seems the next shipment of Turkish Bayrakters are on their way.
Ken
@Chacal Charles Caltrop: I assume Russia’s relying on the nukes to keep China from getting ideas.
@Villago Delenda Est: Yep, since Russia sets such store on historic boundaries, China might bring up the Treaty of Nerchinsk. And Japan might want to discuss the ambiguous status of Karafuto.
Kent
Raise your hand if you thought twitter was stupid with its ridiculous character limits and never spent time there before this war but now can’t get enough.
[raises hand…looks around]
Gin & Tonic
@HumboldtBlue: Did you see ugly racist scenes at the border, or are you commenting based on something somebody else said?
sdhays
@Villago Delenda Est: Under the Putin Doctrine, he should give it to them, since old empire’s borders are the correct ones. Right?
Adam L Silverman
@matt: Thanks for the kind words. You are quite welcome.
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott: Damn Nazis.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Still here. Have you seen Christo Grozev’s Tweet speculating that the Russians are largely out of supplies by Sunday?
brendancalling
@Old Man Shadow: give him to the Ukrainians.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I hadn’t, I’ll go looking for it. Thanks for the heads up.
Gin & Tonic
@Villago Delenda Est: It would be darkly amusing if the sacking of Kyiv, which led to the rise of Muscovy, were reversed, as it were. I mean, it was only 800 years ago. Ukrainians sure remember.
brendancalling
@Adam L Silverman: But have you heard the song? https://youtu.be/ixEjNF8_pYc
Mallard Filmore
@sdhays:
Does that only work for borders? Should the CCP return control of the government to the descendants of the last Chinese emperor, Puyi?
Feathers
Haven’t seen this on any of these threads, so I’ll add it here.
From Sarah Taber, a PhD crop scientist, on the history of Ukraine as a grain exporter, and what that means today.
highlights: Ukraine has been a major exporter of grain since at least the days of Ancient Greece. Half of Athen’s grain came from Ukraine. Ukraine currently supplies the eastern Mediterranean. We should expect bread shortages soon in Egypt, Jordan, etc. if shipments from Ukraine are stopped for long. Ukraine grows winter wheat, plant in fall, it sprouts, goes dormant over the winter, grows into a crop in the spring and summer, harvested in mid/late summer. There is also a description of why Ukraine’s soil is so amazing and digs at agricultural grifters, and comparisons with WWI. The Russians aren’t harming the already planted crops In the field because of the mud, but that may end. Conditions of the ports also a concern.
Anyway, read the whole thing and look at the pictures. https://twitter.com/SarahTaber_bww/status/1499028976576118785
Alison Rose ???
“Stay calm.”
YEAH SURE OKAY NO PROBLEM
Sebastian
The comments are a hoot.
Gin & Tonic
@Sebastian: Depends on which buildings. Yeah, a lot of them – the apartment blocks called “Khrushchovky” for instance – are ugly, but there is some very interesting Soviet-era Brutalist and Modernist architecture if you’re into that sort of thing.
Librarian
@Ohio Mom: During the Napoleonic wars, when Russia was a member of the alliance that defeated Napoleon, occupied Paris, and made peace at the Congress of Vienna.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Mallard Filmore: While Putin is at then by that logic Crimea should go to Turkey since it was part of the Byzantine and then the Ottoman Empires.
Gin & Tonic
Yup, check the tail number.
dr. bloor
@Adam L Silverman:
I’ll bet the kids prepping for Bar/Bat Mitzvah in his synagogue are exceedingly well-motivated.
Edit–eh, thought someone said he was a rabbi.
Mallard Filmore
@Gin & Tonic:
I saw a tweet about that on DemocraticUnderground:
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1499849754897010694
There was a followup that I can’t find that claimed this relates to the supplies they started with, Not all supplies in Russia that can be advanced to the troops.
Sebastian
@Gin & Tonic:
I grew up in Vienna and spent my summers in Croatia. I had my fill of Brutalist (and Fin de Sicle) architecture. But yes, there is the occasional gem, overall it’s all just quick, cheap, and shabby.
Sebastian
@Mallard Filmore:
Correct. See the Krugman linked article above. It has a fantastic explainer.
HumboldtBlue
@Gin & Tonic:
Are you sure you wanna fight on this hill? Because there are plenty of clips to share, primarily of neighboring states refusing entry to those from African countries.
Kelly
Interesting War on the Rocks article from November 2021 about Russian Army logistics. TLDR not setup to work far from Russian wide gauge rail lines.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
Gin & Tonic
@Sebastian: If you’re on Instagram, check out an account called @ukrainianmodernism. Might not be posting much recently, but he’s active and interesting (also a friend of my son and DIL.)
Adam L Silverman
I lied, I’m doing an update now. Trying to keep it relatively short, give me about 20 minutes or so.
PJ
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Crimea wasn’t a part of the Ottoman Empire – the Russians conquered the Crimean Khanate which ruled there. ETA: Though wikipedia tells me it was at one time a protectorate of the Ottomans, so I was partially incorrect.
Gin & Tonic
@HumboldtBlue: If you haven’t been to one of the refugee crossings or haven’t yourself spoken to someone who’s there, you may not know as much as you think you do from video clips.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: I’ll read it in the morning, but thanks.
Another Scott
@dr. bloor:
TimesofIsrael (from 2016):
Cheers,
Scott.
Sebastian
@Gin & Tonic:
Thanks! Will check it out.
You might already know this:
https://www.anothermag.com/art-photography/11165/photographs-of-yugoslavias-unmissable-brutalist-architecture
Jackie
@Adam L Silverman: Adam, you deserve the break! Thanks for being here for us. Take care of yourself.
MobiusKlein
@Kelly: Re Russian rail gauges – I wonder if Finland would like to change their rails to EU standards, away from the Russian standard.
HumboldtBlue
@Gin & Tonic:
Oh, OK, this is the special “if you haven’t been there, you don’t know anything” scenario.”
These
People
Were
There.
Maybe you can explain to them what they experienced.
a thousand flouncing lurkers was fidelio
@Adam L Silverman: Take care and play with the pups.
Another Scott
@Librarian: I think a guy named Leo wrote a short story about those times.
:-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Martin
@Ksmiami: So, the ‘rules’ around a situation like this, which applies to war as well as disasters, etc.
The time for training is before the emergency starts. Once it starts, the things that help are the things you either already know how to use, or the things you can learn in like, an hour. Anything that has *any* kind of logistics is not useful – coordination between entities, so on and so forth.
US drones aren’t useful for three reasons:
There are some low-tech recon drones, but honestly, they’re more or less consumer drones. Just send them consumer drones.
Javelins and Stingers are being sent because:
I’ve seen photos of people using the UK/Swedish NLAW antitank missile that I know joined the army a week ago. That’s a great turnaround. “You, welcome to the Army. Read this and go kill that tank.” is exactly what you’re after.
Mostly you want to send Ukraine a shit-ton of big sticks. The thing they have in abundance is untrained people. Kalashnikovs and molotov cocktails are the bread and butter of this kind of action. What you don’t really want to do is complicate their lives with a ton of different bullet calibers and new shit to learn. If Ukraine is a 5.45x39mm caliber country, send them 5.45x39mm stuff.
From the current look of things, Ukraine is doing an okay job of capturing the heavier stuff they need from Russia – and it’s stuff they’re trained on.
Another Scott
ICYMI, …
35 second clip. It’s a lot shorter than 40 miles, but the clip isn’t the whole convoy, apparently.
Cheers,
Scott.
matt
@Martin: what if the US was to send highly trained drone operators to work within Ukraine as ‘volunteers’? what would be the predictable outcome?
debbie
BBC just reported Zelenskyy will address the Senate tomorrow via video. Anyone else hear this?
matt
@Martin: that one Javelin video was really informative – I couldn’t really believe the ease of use i was seeing.
Chetan Murthy
@matt: Those operators don’t need to be “sent”. They can sit in Vegas like they do today. heh.
Adam L Silverman
Update is up.
Another Scott
@debbie:
TheHill:
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jackie
@debbie: I caught a sound of it on MSNBC – not sure which program. Was listening with half an ear while trying to catch up on BJ posts.
If anyone caught a time, please let us know!
Mallard Filmore
@matt:
I thought our drone operators sat in an air-conditioned shipping container-office. There should be no need to place those control stations in Ukraine. The operators can come to the controls, if that direction is taken
[ETA] what Chetan Murthy said.
debbie
@Another Scott:
Here’s what I heard on the BBC
CaseyL
@Sebastian: Those photos remind me of 1950s abstract art, which informed things like interior and furniture design in the US. Ghastly stuff, some of which – like minimalist slingback chairs, all pointy corners and no cushions – is enjoying a revival for some ungodly reason.
Gin & Tonic
@HumboldtBlue: Of the clips in that collection that I watched, it seems most of the problem is not having a Ukrainian or EU passport. Different documents are treated differently at international borders, that’s not new. But I’m racking out, so no interest in continuing this.
marcopolo
New Thread is up.
Ksmiami
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: If Xi can get Putin to relent, give him Siberian land…
Ksmiami
@Martin: I just want to give them a fair chance to repel the artillery units doing the most damage rn
Martin
@Chetan Murthy: Well, that’s just a US/Russia war then.
BC in Illinois
Just cam back from the St Louis Symphony Orchestra* performance of Mozart’s Requiem. The conductor and most of the rest of the program was changed:
I’ll bet he had trouble traveling. According to a member of the chorus, the new conductor got the phone call on Sunday: “Hey, hi, how you doing? You want to conduct the Mozart Requiem on Friday?”
*The SLSO actually checks that everyone has a vaccination card, and everyone keeps their mask on through the whole concert. As far as I could tell, everyone was cooperating. It didn’t dawn on me until the second piece of the Requiem that even everyone in the chorus had a mask on.
phdesmond
@Adam L Silverman:
thanks, Adam.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: faster pussycat.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: that would depend on the Russians being able to tell, wouldn’t it? If Ukrainian operators were running them except when Americans had to “reach over their shoulders to help”, it might be deniable.
OK, OK, I’m pullin’ this outta my ass. Much more reliable to just incentivize Turkey to send more/more/more Bayraktars.
Ken
@debbie: “Hello, for those of you who don’t remember, I’m the guy your former President tried to blackmail into creating bogus charges against your current President. I understand many of you didn’t see any problem with that.”
(Nah, he’s a professional. Well, not exactly, but he gains by comparison with the Senate.)
Hoodie
@Chetan Murthy: They’re already pretty incentivized as decimating Russian armored columns is great advertising for their product. They’ve already been marketed as the great equalizer for smaller countries.
phdesmond
@brendancalling:
great song!
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
It’s a shame Peter Arnett is 87 years old otherwise this would be a perfect assignment.