Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Ah, the different things are different argument.

T R E 4 5 O N

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

I really should read my own blog.

Fani Willis claps back at Trump chihuahua, Jim Jordan.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

“And when the Committee says to “report your income,” that could mean anything!

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

“woke” is the new caravan.

Republicans can’t even be trusted with their own money.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

If you are still in the GOP, you are an extremist.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

It’s time for the GOP to dust off that post-2012 autopsy, completely ignore it, and light the party on fire again.

You are here: Home / Politics / Media / Russian Affairs Open Thread: No News Is Putin’s News

Russian Affairs Open Thread: No News Is Putin’s News

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  2. 2.

    Sebastian

    Nichols misses a few crucial points and he should really know better. A few facts first:

    • Russia’s birth rate is abysmal. The only ones having children are/were rural families. That’s exactly the demographic hit hardest by the casualties.
    • The rural population in Russia is ridiculously poor, especially retirees who are surviving on like $200/month. They will be hit hardest by the coming hyperinflation.
    • It’s not a position of strength when you have to keep something as monumental as a full-scale war against a country of 40 million a secret.
    • Putin was all but begging on TV for the sanctions to be softened.
  3. 3.

    Sebastian

    The Northern front is an unmitigated disaster.

    Lady’s and Gentlemen, boys & girls, it is time saddle up for another installment of the “Mud and Truck Maintenance in Ukraine” feed.

    And this one will be a doozy, because we are talking about Russian truck refueling in the 64km column north of Kyiv. ?

    1/ pic.twitter.com/akTbOuo4tI
    — Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 4, 2022

  4. 4.

    Old Man Shadow

    It’s frustrating to play this game while hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people are suffering. And we all know that it will get worse and we cling to a shaky hope that it will get better.

    God, I want to see Putin dragged from the Kremlin and given justice by the Russian people.

  5. 5.

    Sebastian

    One more on mud and tires.

     

    This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system’s right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.?

    1/ pic.twitter.com/LmxW43v6gy
    — Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022

  6. 6.

    Sebastian

    More high-tech headaches for Russia are incoming …

    An Antonov Airlines Antonov An-124 (reg. ??UR-82072 as #ADB3174) from ??Tekirdag Corlu Airport (known for its Bayraktar TB2 delivery flights) is currently landing at ??Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport in Poland, the likely military hub for ??Ukraine, a Bayraktar TB2 operator. pic.twitter.com/1wk7yYfACU
    — Gerjon | חריון (@Gerjon_) March 4, 2022

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    Since AL has just put this post up, I’m taking the night off.

    You all have a nice Friday.

  8. 8.

    Lyrebird

    Now we have the tyrant’s response to those people daring to toast their fallen comrade, the stock exchange, on air. To the retired Yandex guy who had said something like there’s no law against making other headlines show up than the approved ones. Well now there is.

    And gosh Tom Nichols is saying we should brace ourselves for how bad it’s gonna get, like it wasn’t bad enough already. Don’t get me wrong, I am not questioning his interpretation, I’m inclined to think he’s right. I just want more Ukrainians to survive than not.

    Not useful for me to go again through the litany of if onlys like if only we had listened more to Pussy Riot back then, if only the USA had had a different response in 2014… We didn’t. We’re here.

    Grateful Balloon Juice is here. Hugging my family members extra. Making at least some contribution to funds for Ukraine.

     

    ETA: glad to read about Turkish shipments, just wondering if maybe it would be better not to tweet about them.  Said by someone who admits she does not know much about this.

  11. 11.

    Chris T.

    Re the Edwards tweet (“what many Republicans would consider Heaven”): can we airdrop all the “fake news” complainers into Russia now?

  12. 12.

    Sebastian

    I’ve been shouting from the rooftops since this thing started that UA forces are superbly equipped. Small arms, body armor, boots, uniforms, AT and AA missiles, night vision, secure radios, you name it.

    Here are the weapons of the Russian Special Forces: from the 50ies. Let that sink in.

    This is a ??? detail of what a Potemkin Village Military Russia has from @UAWeapons.

    The 2x RPG-7V are 1950’s era weapons in frontline VDV paratrooper hands.

    The RPG-16 (photo) was the _1970_ VDV replacement weapon.

    We are in 2022. https://t.co/8QOQ54VqCA pic.twitter.com/0zh9pvun9y
    — Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 4, 2022

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Sebastian: The best part of this thread is when the female furry shows up to correct all the men that these aren’t Chinese knockoffs of Michelins, but Belarusian knockoffs of the Chinese knockoffs of the Michelins.

  15. 15.

    PJ

    @Old Man Shadow: The longer the war goes on, the worse it will be for Putin and his cronies.  Unfortunately, it will also be worse for the Ukrainians.  The question is, who can hold out longer?

  18. 18.

    dmsilev

    @Lyrebird:

    ETA: glad to read about Turkish shipments, just wondering if maybe it would be better not to tweet about them.  Said by someone who admits she does not know much about this.

    Not exactly a secret that a whole bunch of countries are sending a whole bunch of weaponry and support gear to Ukraine. There’s arguably some value in broadcasting that fact as well; even with the censorship and so forth, some of that’s going to leak into Russia.

  19. 19.

    Villago Delenda Est

    It makes total sense that dictator-wannabe TFG would call Putin “savvy”.

  20. 20.

    Gvg

    I remember reading about some funny logistic screwups we did in WWII. Sending stuff carefully stored away at the end of WWI to Australia for instance and how carefully ship loading had to be planned so the ship rode the ocean balanced and then how first loaded would be the last unloaded so you had to have planned carefully to have say defensive weapons ready in case you arrived under attack…The screwups I recall reading about were trivial compared to this. This actually makes people wonder about the whole Russian military. I mean in theory, corruption weakens any agency, and only promoting yes men is another weakness, but I really didn’t imagine anything like this.

    Given enough time, they could learn and fix this like the Soviets did before I guess, but do they have the time?

  23. 23.

    PJ

    @Sebastian: Yeah, I don’t think it’s a secret that NATO countries are supplying weapons to Ukraine.  How and where they are getting them into Ukraine, on the other hand, is probably something best not shared online.

    ETA: I see @dmsilev got there before me.

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Ksmiami: Yes. But I’m not sure they have the right air assets for it. The Bayraktar drones can be used for this. As can other drones. They can also be targeted from the ground if you can get a team with RPGs or Javelins or NLAWs in close enough to do it.

  25. 25.

    Sebastian

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Hahahaha there are so many comments I didn’t even see that.

    I really wonder if UA is focusing on the defense of Kyiv and counting on the Russians capitulating from hunger. Then a counteroffensive in the South.

  29. 29.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Gvg: Using wooden slats as “reactive armor” because the oligarch defense contractors needed new yachts is a consequence of the endless corruption in Russia.

  30. 30.

    dmsilev

    @debbie: See, for example, this, from this morning.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday called for the “normalization” of relations with other states, saying that Moscow had “absolutely no ill intentions with regard to our neighbors.”

    Speaking via video link at a ceremony raising the Russian flag on a Kaliningrad ferry, Putin called for global coordination at a time when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its second week.

    “I think that everyone should think about normalizing relations and cooperating normally,” he said.

    He said Russia saw no need to aggravate tensions with other countries, claiming that Moscow’s actions in Ukraine only came “in response to unfriendly actions toward Russia.”

  31. 31.

    The Dangerman

    If Putin develops a serious case of lead poisoning, who is Number 2?

    I suppose you might be able to hermetically seal the country if you turned off the Net. Safe assumption that people would notice.

  32. 32.

    Ohio Mom

    “Darker days ahead but stay calm” is something of a cliffhanger. Why and how should I stay calm? I guess that will require a deep dive into Tom Nichol’s Twitter and it’s too late and I’m too tired right now.

    Has Russia ever had a Golden Age, a period that is inspiring? Maybe there was a hopeful moment just after the Soviet Union fell apart but that devolved quickly. It just seems like a country that lurches from one miserable incarnation to another. That has to shape the national culture and psychology, and not in good ways.

  35. 35.

    Sebastian

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t6phhx/croatian_military_attache_right_refuses_to_accept/

    Not sure if the picture is still available but the Croatian Military Attache refused to take a letter from the Russians protesting Croatia sending “volunteers” (Special Forces)

    Hahaha suck it Vova. This brotherhood was forged in blood. Btw, Croatia has a little Trump/Orban problem. The current Prime Minister (and the last) are a bit too close to Putin. During the last NATO exercises he withdrew the Croatian troops due to Ukraine. He is in hot water now.

  37. 37.

    Lyrebird

    @Sebastian: @dmsilev: Ok, got it.

    @Sebastian: It’s not a position of strength when you have to keep something as monumental as a full-scale war against a country of 40 million a secret.

    Yeah it’s not much as consolation while the bombs are still dropping, but the massive crackdown at home confirms that he’s in many ways losing.  Still inflicting terrible damage, but if all were going to plan, no need for martial law.

    The Ukrainian military has quite a lot to be proud of even in this hellish time.

  42. 42.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Villago Delenda Est: just about, if I remember by Cold War wargaming days of my misspent youth correctly those are the Russian third line units with like over 30, more like in their 40s reservists.  Doubtless telling each other stories about Afghanistan on the train ride.

  45. 45.

    Sebastian

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Holy smokes. I bet it was meticulously maintained.

    I have a hunch the train network in Russia is going to experience technical problems fairly soon.

    Earlier I saw a bunch of APCs with fairly new camo paint and I was worried they had indeed sent the crappy stuff first and are now sending the modern stuff. I don’t know enough about the variants, folks on Twitter say it’s old because no 30mm auto-cannon.

    I’ll try to find it.

    Also, so much info, I missed this here completely. Paul Krugman, of all people, pointed out something I had a weird hunch about, namely how many support vehicles do the Russians have? They strike me as focused on the glory numbers: tanks, APC, artillery, and forget the maintenance and support stuff.

    This is fascinating: an article on Russian logistics published well in advance of the Ukraine invasion. Basically the Russians have far too few trucks to support their forces if they move far from railheads 1/ https://t.co/YMWiskSy0W— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) March 1, 2022

  46. 46.

    matt

    Boy, Putin issuing all of these repressive measures sure puts Republicans in a tough spot – they want to leap up out of their chairs and applaud, but it might hurt them with the public.

  48. 48.

    Sebastian

    @Lyrebird:

    I think I mentioned it the other day, I spoke with Ukrainian friends and I cheered them up by saying, the casualties notwithstanding, it’s a good thing for these buttugly Soviet buildings to be destroyed. They can and will build beautiful Ukrainian architecture and thus create an even bigger cultural shift from Russia.

  50. 50.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @Ohio Mom:

    Early 60s Russia with stated aspirations toward an anti-racist stance had potential (plus an inclination toward mid-century modern). Sadly, that got lost in the Brezhnev years.

  52. 52.

    Kent

    @Mallard Filmore:@Adam L Silverman: Russia is going to end up a client state of China.

    I expect they don’t want the Russians, just their stuff.  So they will buy up all the forests, mines, and resources but let the Russians keep Russia.

    Basically turn Russia into the Congo.

  58. 58.

    Kent

    Raise your hand if you thought twitter was stupid with its ridiculous character limits and never spent time there before this war but now can’t get enough.

    [raises hand…looks around]

  66. 66.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Villago Delenda Est: It would be darkly amusing if the sacking of Kyiv, which led to the rise of Muscovy, were reversed, as it were. I mean, it was only 800 years ago. Ukrainians sure remember.

  68. 68.

    Mallard Filmore

    @sdhays: 

    Under the Putin Doctrine, he should give it to them, since old empire’s borders are the correct ones. Right?

    Does that only work for borders? Should the CCP return control of the government to the descendants of the last Chinese emperor, Puyi?

  69. 69.

    Feathers

    Haven’t seen this on any of these threads, so I’ll add it here.

    From Sarah Taber, a PhD crop scientist, on the history of Ukraine as a grain exporter, and what that means today.

    highlights: Ukraine has been a major exporter of grain since at least the days of Ancient Greece. Half of Athen’s grain came from Ukraine. Ukraine currently supplies the eastern Mediterranean. We should expect bread shortages soon in Egypt, Jordan, etc. if shipments from Ukraine are stopped for long. Ukraine grows winter wheat, plant in fall, it sprouts, goes dormant over the winter, grows into a crop in the spring and summer, harvested in mid/late summer. There is also a description of why Ukraine’s soil is so amazing and digs at agricultural grifters, and comparisons with WWI. The Russians aren’t harming the already planted crops In the field because of the mud, but that may end. Conditions of the ports also a concern.

    Anyway, read the whole thing and look at the pictures. https://twitter.com/SarahTaber_bww/status/1499028976576118785

  72. 72.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Sebastian: Depends on which buildings. Yeah, a lot of them – the apartment blocks called “Khrushchovky” for instance – are ugly, but there is some very interesting Soviet-era Brutalist and Modernist architecture if you’re into that sort of thing.

  73. 73.

    Librarian

    @Ohio Mom: During the Napoleonic wars, when Russia was a member of the alliance that defeated Napoleon, occupied Paris, and made peace at the Congress of Vienna.

  74. 74.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Mallard Filmore: While Putin is at then by that logic Crimea should go to Turkey since it was part of the Byzantine and then the Ottoman Empires.

  78. 78.

    Sebastian

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I grew up in Vienna and spent my summers in Croatia. I had my fill of Brutalist (and Fin de Sicle) architecture. But yes, there is the occasional gem, overall it’s all just quick, cheap, and shabby.

  80. 80.

    HumboldtBlue

    @Gin & Tonic: ​ 

    Are you sure you wanna fight on this hill? Because there are plenty of clips to share, primarily of neighboring states refusing entry to those from African countries.

  82. 82.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Sebastian: If you’re on Instagram, check out an account called @ukrainianmodernism. Might not be posting much recently, but he’s active and interesting (also a friend of my son and DIL.)

  83. 83.

    Adam L Silverman

    I lied, I’m doing an update now. Trying to keep it relatively short, give me about 20 minutes or so.

  84. 84.

    PJ

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Crimea wasn’t a part of the Ottoman Empire – the Russians conquered the Crimean Khanate which ruled there.  ETA: Though wikipedia tells me it was at one time a protectorate of the Ottomans, so I was partially incorrect.​

  85. 85.

    Gin & Tonic

    @HumboldtBlue: If you haven’t been to one of the refugee crossings or haven’t yourself spoken to someone who’s there, you may not know as much as you think you do from video clips.

  87. 87.

    Another Scott

    @dr. bloor:

    TimesofIsrael (from 2016):

    DNIPROPETROVSK, Ukraine (AFP) — Asher Cherkasskiy lived a modest life in peaceful southern Ukraine, observing Orthodox Jewish custom and putting his three children through religious school.

    But when war against pro-Russian insurgents broke out in 2014, everything changed.

    Cherkasskiy became one of the few religious Jews to join a pro-Kiev militia and his bearded, bespectacled face — so different from the others — turned him into an unlikely icon of the conflict.

    “I had to protect my children,” said the 45-year-old former handyman whose fame has since propelled him into politics. “If the territorial integrity of your country is broken, you have to defend it.”

    Cherkasskiy left his small town of Feodosia in Crimea after the peninsula was annexed by Russia in March 2014. Its new status, he said, “went counter” to his conscience and convictions.

    […]

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  90. 90.

    MobiusKlein

    @Kelly: Re Russian rail gauges – I wonder if Finland would like to change their rails to EU standards, away from the Russian standard.

  94. 94.

    Martin

    @Ksmiami: So, the ‘rules’ around a situation like this, which applies to war as well as disasters, etc.

    The time for training is before the emergency starts. Once it starts, the things that help are the things you either already know how to use, or the things you can learn in like, an hour.  Anything that has *any* kind of logistics is not useful – coordination between entities, so on and so forth.

    US drones aren’t useful for three reasons:

    1. Ukrainian forces aren’t trained on them, so we’d probably have to send US/NATO troops along to train them (nonstarter right now)
    2. US drones are generally *very* complicated. We rely on having a professional armed service with plenty of time for training, plenty of logistics, and all that. And we are pretty good at building out all the necessary infrastructure.

    There are some low-tech recon drones, but honestly, they’re more or less consumer drones. Just send them consumer drones.

    Javelins and Stingers are being sent because:

    1. They are extremely effective against the current threat – tanks and helicopters and planes. Javelins in particular.
    2. They are single person or at most two person weapons. Not much coordination needed. Nicely self-contained.
    3. Anyone can learn to use them in an hour.

    I’ve seen photos of people using the UK/Swedish NLAW antitank missile that I know joined the army a week ago. That’s a great turnaround. “You, welcome to the Army. Read this and go kill that tank.” is exactly what you’re after.

    Mostly you want to send Ukraine a shit-ton of big sticks. The thing they have in abundance is untrained people. Kalashnikovs and molotov cocktails are the bread and butter of this kind of action. What you don’t really want to do is complicate their lives with a ton of different bullet calibers and new shit to learn. If Ukraine is a 5.45x39mm caliber country, send them 5.45x39mm stuff.

    From the current look of things, Ukraine is doing an okay job of capturing the heavier stuff they need from Russia – and it’s stuff they’re trained on.

  95. 95.

    Another Scott

    ICYMI, …

    We have produced a #3D video fly-through of the 40-mile long convoy that is outside of #Kyiv, #Ukraine from the WorldView-3 #satelliteimagery that was collected on Monday, February 28, 2022, providing a better understanding of the situation. https://t.co/iTbaAwB1Rc

    — Maxar Technologies (@Maxar) March 4, 2022

    35 second clip. It’s a lot shorter than 40 miles, but the clip isn’t the whole convoy, apparently.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  96. 96.

    matt

    @Martin: what if the US was to send highly trained drone operators to work within Ukraine as ‘volunteers’? what would be the predictable outcome?

  97. 97.

    debbie

    BBC just reported Zelenskyy will address the Senate tomorrow via video. Anyone else hear this?

  99. 99.

    Chetan Murthy

    @matt: Those operators don’t need to be “sent”.  They can sit in Vegas like they do today.  heh.

  101. 101.

    Another Scott

    @debbie:

    TheHill:

    Senators have been invited to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky via Zoom on Saturday, a Senate aide confirmed to The Hill.

    The meeting, which would take place on Saturday morning, would be the first time the full Senate has been able to speak with Zelensky since Russian President Vladimir Putin began his invasion of Ukraine late last month.

    The meeting comes as lawmakers are working to pass billions in new aid for Ukraine and gives Zelensky the chance to pitch members of Congress directly on what his country needs as it fights back against the Russian invasion. Though Putin has faced setbacks, Russia still has a military advantage over Ukraine and has been attacking multiple key cities.

    Zelensky’s talk with lawmakers comes after other Ukrainian officials met with members of Congress earlier this week. Ukrainian ambassador Oksana Markarova met with members of Senate and warned them Ukraine needs more supplies to help fight the Russian military.

    […]

    HTH.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  102. 102.

    Jackie

    @debbie: I caught a sound of it on MSNBC – not sure which program. Was listening with half an ear while trying to catch up on BJ posts.

    If anyone caught a time, please let us know!

  103. 103.

    Mallard Filmore

    @matt:

    what if the US was to send highly trained drone operators to work within Ukraine as ‘volunteers’? what would be the predictable outcome?

    I thought our drone operators sat in an air-conditioned shipping container-office. There should be no need to place those control stations in Ukraine. The operators can come to the controls, if that direction is taken

    [ETA]  what Chetan Murthy said.

  104. 104.

    debbie

    @Another Scott:

    Here’s what I heard on the BBC

    The United States Senate has been invited to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky via Zoom, reports say.
    Zelensky has been in touch with President Biden but this will be the first time the Senate as a whole will speak to the Ukrainian leader since Russia invaded the country more than a week ago.
    Last week, Ukraine’s US ambassador Oksana Markarova met members of the Senate and said her country urgently needed more supplies to fight Russia.

  105. 105.

    CaseyL

    @Sebastian: Those photos remind me of 1950s abstract art, which informed things like interior and furniture design in the US.  Ghastly stuff, some of which – like minimalist slingback chairs, all pointy corners and no cushions – is enjoying a revival for some ungodly reason.

  106. 106.

    Gin & Tonic

    @HumboldtBlue: Of the clips in that collection that I watched, it seems most of the problem is not having a Ukrainian or EU passport. Different documents are treated differently at international borders, that’s not new. But I’m racking out, so no interest in continuing this.

  111. 111.

    BC in Illinois

    Just cam back from the St Louis Symphony Orchestra* performance of Mozart’s Requiem.  The conductor and most of the rest of the program was changed:

    Russian conductor, violinist and countertenor Dmitry Sinkovsky, who was to make his St. Louis Symphony Orchestra debut with three concerts this weekend at Powell Hall, will not appear as scheduled.

    According to a statement released by the SLSO, Sinkovsky’s cancellation is due to his inability to travel to St. Louis this week.

    I’ll bet he had trouble traveling. According to a member of the chorus, the new conductor got the phone call on Sunday: “Hey, hi, how you doing? You want to conduct the Mozart Requiem on Friday?”

    *The SLSO actually checks that everyone has a vaccination card, and everyone keeps their mask on through the whole concert. As far as I could tell, everyone was cooperating. It didn’t dawn on me until the second piece of the Requiem that even everyone in the chorus had a mask on.

  114. 114.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Martin: that would depend on the Russians being able to tell, wouldn’t it?  If Ukrainian operators were running them except when Americans had to “reach over their shoulders to help”, it might be deniable.

    OK, OK, I’m pullin’ this outta my ass.  Much more reliable to just incentivize Turkey to send more/more/more Bayraktars.

  115. 115.

    Ken

    @debbie: “Hello, for those of you who don’t remember, I’m the guy your former President tried to blackmail into creating bogus charges against your current President. I understand many of you didn’t see any problem with that.”

    (Nah, he’s a professional. Well, not exactly, but he gains by comparison with the Senate.)

  116. 116.

    Hoodie

    @Chetan Murthy: They’re already pretty incentivized as decimating Russian armored columns is great advertising for their product. They’ve already been marketed as the great equalizer for smaller countries.

  118. 118.

    David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch

    It’s a shame Peter Arnett is 87 years old otherwise this would be a perfect assignment.

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