Just last week I felt like Blinken had little hope for Ukraine. I am basing that on how he answered some questions about Ukraine, but unfortunately I can’t point to the exact video interview with Blinken that led me to that conclusion.
It feels to me like something has shifted. Does anyone else feel that, too?
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"In less than a week, the United States and NATO have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons, including Javelin missiles, over the borders of Poland and Romania,"https://t.co/71av4yc4mh pic.twitter.com/ZALm7iEwHW
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 7, 2022
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Written down like this Zelenskiy’s address tonight reads like a powerful poem. pic.twitter.com/R915iHzc0v
— Shaun Walker (@shaunwalker7) March 6, 2022
Reminder, because someone in an earlier thread couldn’t remember how to find some of this.
WAR IN UKRAINE in the blue category bar up top has a link to the new (in progress) War in Ukraine Lexicon. There’s a list of good folks to follow on twitter for Ukraine, links to 3 good article that were recommended by Adam or Gin & Tonic, a list of ways you can help Ukraine. And, of course, all the Ukraine posts.
x
Old School
It’s shifted in the sense that Russia hasn’t built this attack to be perpetual. So the longer Ukraine fights them back, the more likely they will hold on.
WaterGirl
@Old School: Do you think it’s the sheer fact that Ukraine has hung on fiercely for 10 days that has upended some of the fatalism?
S. Cerevisiae
That Zelenskyy statement is incredibly powerful, it will be on the statues that Ukraine will raise.
Geo Wilcox
Seeing the video of of Russian mothers yelling at authorities who sent their ill prepared sons to a live war is telling. You do not fuck with the babushka mob at all.
Repatriated
@WaterGirl:
I don’t think anyone believed the Russians could possibly be this bad at warfighting.
Don’t get me wrong — Ukrainians have been heroic, resolute, and extremely effective! But they’re up against what until a couple of weeks ago was thought to be a first-rate military.
Old School
@WaterGirl: I think so. Although as Adam has pointed out, the big question is if Putin will decide if he can’t have Ukraine that no one can.
Chetan Murthy
My god.
Frankensteinbeck
I don’t think anyone knew that this would go so badly for the Russians. You would have to have predicted the low-quality Russian equipment, the bad training and morale of Russian troops, the abject stupidity of Russian leadership, the unfriendly Ukrainian terrain, the terrible Russian logistics, the determination of the Ukrainian resistance, Zelenskiy’s inspiring leadership, and the aggressive support the rest of the world has thrown in behind Ukraine. Even if you somehow knew all of the others, the international support part is unprecedented. Now that all of these things are known, the situation looks very different. Still horrifying in that Putin’s now plan appears to be using artillery to level Ukraine, and while that’s unlikely to succeed it is likely to cause a lot of innocent deaths, every one of which is a tragedy and a war crime.
Mike in NC
Putin was counting on a cakewalk. Instead he got Cossacks!
Fair Economist
I initially expected Ukraine to lose quickly and then go to a very extended guerrilla war. But the early Russian incompetence and enthusiastic Western support quickly convinced me the Russians cannot win this even on the battlefield. They could potentially take most of Ukraine – although right now even that is looking less than likely. But they can’t make the Ukrainians stop fighting, and no matter how much destruction they inflict on Ukraine the West will provide the Ukrainians with an endless supply of weapons and money. Destruction will just intensify the Ukrainians’ hatred of this brutal and unjust invasion, and in the process deprive Ukrainians of anything to do *besides* fight in the army or resistance.
IMO the question now is how much the Ukrainians will have to suffer – and how much the Russian army has to suffer – before the Russians either give up or are defeated outright. There’s just no way for the Russians to win now.
The Moar You Know
I think what has shifted is that Vlad has decided that if he can’t have the country, he’s going to exterminate them all.
He does have the means to do exactly that.
sab
Tim McVeigh thought he was a hero when he blew up all those babies.
Kay
I like Blinken. I like how serious and focused he is and I like how he doesn’t seem to have political ambitions.
Good choice. A high quality hire :)
Geminid
@Frankensteinbeck: Putin can inflict a lot death and destuction on Ukrainians through bombardment, but that won’t terrorize them into submission. If anything it will harden their resolve, like the Blitz did with the British in 1940.
I wonder if this war will end with a mutiny of the Russian Army in Ukraine. Evidently there already has been some passive mutiny among some Russian troop. Reports of them dumping fuel are examples. We don’t know how extensive such acts are.
I am not saying there will be general mutiny. But I would not be shocked if there were.
sab
@Kay: :)
sab
ETA high quality hire
Anyway
Nope. I don’t see it. If anything Putin seems to be pissed off at the extent of the sanctions and digging his heels in – he can’t have Ukraine and he’s wreaking havoc on the poor country. I feel so sad for the people of Ukraine – losing their lives and homes. Dreadful.
Baud
@Frankensteinbeck:
I wouldn’t say I knew it, but I held it out as a possibility.
FlyingToaster
I don’t believe that anyone anticipated the “appease the dictator” and “wishful thinking” on behalf of the military planners in Moscow.
Most of what we’ve seen from Russia in the past 30 years is either A) overseas adventuring (Afghanistan, Syria) which required that logistics be in place before you launch, or B) overrunning an unsuspecting populace, a la Crimea, Donbass, and Belarus, or C) blowing everything the hell up and killing everyone (Grozny, Aleppo).
Attacking an opponent who knows you’re coming, is streaming video of your atrocities, and is garnering support from hither and yon, inside and outside of the opponent’s country, is not something that Russia’s done before. Neither has anyone else.
Believing that one can reprise WWII era tactics 80 years on is probably not a successful strategy.
Hereabouts, the folks I’ve been discussing this with are convinced that Putin is high on his own supply; he told his minions to put out propaganda, and then started believing it.
Richard Fox
This is a very pertinent and timely post. I literally was yelling at the television a few minutes ago with Richard Engel on MSNBC giving the worst possible scenario as a given, end of all hope, etc. It contrasts starkly with the sense I’ve been getting from other sources, that materiel and munitions to fight are getting through, and that Ukraine could very well hold itself together. I also had noticed how canny President Biden is, and will not let the Russians bulldoze their way in. So time will tell of course, but I’ve got hope this may go better than was thought feasible just last week. (The fact that days have passed and Ukraine still stands really is extraordinary confirmation of this perspective.)
japa21
@Kay: Funny how some administrations tend to actually feel it is appropriate to have high-quality hires, while others feel all the hires must be of lower quality than the leader. And when the leader is of very low quality indeed, that makes for ultra low quality hires.
debbie
@S. Cerevisiae:
I’d like to see those last five lines on a t-shirt. Send every damn one to Moscow.
Alison Rose ???
“We will punish everyone who committed atrocities in this war,” he said. “There will be no quiet place on this earth for you. Except for the grave.”
SOMEONE DID NOT COME TO PLAY. I really appreciate too how he’s able to say things like this without sounding like a Tough Guy™ or a blustering jerk. He just sounds like someone with some sunflower seeds and a job to do and he’s gonna fucking do it.
debbie
@Kay:
Results without swagger!
brendancalling
@Geo Wilcox: I dated a Ukrainian gal for two years. Don’t make ‘em mad.
Gin & Tonic
Centuries of history are not easily forgiven. Putin did not and does not understand Ukraine at all.
debbie
@Richard Fox:
What, you didn’t care for TFG’s idea about disguising American planes as Chinese plans and bombing the shit out of Russia???
stacib
@Kay: I was thinking almost exactly this a couple days ago. I think he is Biden’s best hire, which is saying something as I really like most of them in the roles he named them to fill.
japa21
A couple thoughts to the main topic of the post.
When all this started, I am not too sure how confident the Ukrainians were they could hold off the initial onslaught. Remember how, just after it started, Zelenskyy told several European leaders in a video call that that could well be the last time they see him alive? He was expecting to die early on.
The Ukrainians were all prepared for guerilla style warfare and were probably astounded themselves at how incompetent the Russian military is.
Secondly, it has been obvious from before the invasion even started that the US has had some remarkable intelligence gathering going on. And when Biden was asked if he thought Putin would use nukes, he was pretty confident that Putin wouldn’t. I have to wonder if he knows something that even Putin doesn’t know.
All this being said, let’s face it, predicting the future of this conflict is a fool’s errand.
Chetan Murthy
@Richard Fox: We all hope UA will win this. We hope for it, not just because we want them to survive and be free, but because they’re the tip of the spear, fighting the enemy of our Republic, the enemy of all Westerners. But …. it’s still pretty grim, and analysts like Michael Kofman have said so. The UA army has done excellent “information operations”, but we never hear about Russian advances, do we? Sigh.
Kay
@japa21:
Imagine nasty Right wing celebrity Pompeo, lying his ass off, with his eye on his next job.
I’m sick of celebrities. I want to hire somber, trustworthy people. I saw footage of Blinken walking around a refugee entry point in Poland and he looked like one should look in that situation- like he has the weight of the world on his shoulders. I’m sick of braggarts and liars and loudmouths and people who pretend to know everything.
Richard Fox
@debbie: Mercifully TFG no longer registers on my brain nor any of his moronic pronouncements. Tuned him out with sweeper in hand and into the dustbin. If I envision him at all it is with toilet paper adhering to his shoe as he walks into his airplane to nowhere. ??
stacib
@Gin & Tonic: This may have already been asked and answered, but I would appreciate your take. Considering how many times Zelenskyy implied the West was pushing war (with the way the Biden administration was so public with their findings), do you think he actually believed Putin would not invade, or was he trying to calm his people? Also, how did they have prepared bunkers, in 2022, if they didn’t believe P would start a war?
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: I just wanna add: like everyone here, I’m pulling for our UA allies. But I fear that overconfidence on the part of our leadership might cause them to not go to the hilt, supporting UA. Those planes, counterbattery weapons, more anti-aircraft weapons, more drones, and on and on, are things that people are gonna hesitate about, if they think UA can win this already.
I’m sitting here worried stiff about those planes. And what’s coming with the artillery duels for Kyiv and Kharkiv. And there’s nothing we can do, except donate some money for the survivors and refugees.
japa21
@Kay: The irony if that Pompeo actually made Tillerson look good by contrast, an extremely difficult thing to do.
The Trump administration should have caused the whole concept of running the government like a business to be dead and buried. Unfortunately it didn’t.
Spanky
The logistics tail of the Russian forces is going to collapse. There will be a “cease fire” while the Russians try to fix it. I think the Ukrainians are savvy enough to not buy into it. I hope they have the nerve to counter attack, not knowing how Vova will respond.
I worry that the Russians will find some chemical weapons, and there are enough Putin lackeys to see it gets used.
Raoul Paste
@Kay: Amen
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@japa21:
I’ve had a similar thought, or hope.
bbleh
@japa21: There’s an old saying, “A people hire A people, B people hire C people.”
Baud
@Chetan Murthy:
What’s that fear based on?
bbleh
@japa21: Yeah, I can’t help but think that the WH knows WAY more than anyone knows they know. A little like the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I did not know until I checked RT’s Wiki page that the human wreckage known as Dennis Miller had sunk that low. Also Mike Papantnio, whose name I couldn’t quite place until I remembered I used to listen to Ring of Fire with him, Sam Seder and god help us RFK Jr on the dying husk of Air America many years ago
Gin & Tonic
@stacib: Second first – Kyiv has had bunkers forever. Look up the Battles of Kyiv (yes, plural) from WWII. Then came the Cold War. One of the subway stations is over 300 feet underground (taking that escalator gives you vertigo.)
As to the first, I’m not in Zelensky’s head, but I suspect he was stalling for time to prepare.
scav
@bbleh: Saying works with the verb elect too.
Sebastian
We are dealing with two to four different types of war in Ukraine. Two in the North, the stalled advance on Kyiv, and the brutal shelling of Kharkiv, and two in the South, Donbas and Odesa.
It was clear from the beginning that Kyiv must be held at all costs. It’s the largest city, the seat of the government, and the heart of Ukraine. It has symbolic power. Here the Ukrainians are wreaking havoc on Russian columns, using General Mud to their fullest advantage, and repelling Russian attempts to establish any footholds.
Kharkiv is too close to the Russian border (10 miles) and thus exposed to relentless shelling. It will soon look like Aleppo or Vukovar.
Donbas has no mud and is full of Russian separatists. The war there has more of a civil war nature. Nothing will change there until the threat around Kyiv is under control. The effects of the sheer amount of new fighters and weapons streaming into Ukraine will be seen here soon. Once you pour 20-40,000 soldiers into what is basically a stalemate, it flips quickly.
Odessa must be attacked from the sea, which is an amphibious landing operation. There are rumors that the operation is going sideways because Crimean Marines refuse to attack Odesa.
All of the above is affected by Russia’s logistics problems and mounting losses in hardware and soldiers. At some point an army stretched too thin reaches a breaking point and starts collapsing. Once it does, enemy troops from that front become available on other fronts which make those collapse.
At first slow and then all of a sudden, right? I don’t see this going on much longer.
bbleh
@debbie: @Richard Fox: But … but, TFG is so TOUGH that Putin didn’t DARE attack Ukraine, for fear of his mighty mightiness! I mean, that’s just OBVIOUS!
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Don’t forget Ed Schultz and Larry King before they died.
frosty
@Kay: “A good quality hire”. I don’t think I ever saw you use that phrase before. High praise!
Richard Fox
@Chetan Murthy: Your point certainly makes sense. Ultimately I have faith in the incompetence of the Russian government to screw this military adventure up completely. I only wish innocent countries and citizens didn’t suffer, to say the least.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Something I noticed was Putin’s latest ransom note was back to the status quo before this fucked mess that little Shit Goblin inflicted everyone.
sab
I made pie yesterday. Husband loved it. Pie filling frozen last Fall, with cinnamon.
JoyceH
Tell you what, I started feeling a surprising optimism counter to the tone of the news coverage back during the initial coverage of The Convoy. When it was first reported, I thought, “oh, shit!” News – “Kyiv still holds – But! There’s this massive, powerful, overwhelming Convoy bearing down on them.” And they showed the images of this huge influx of military might bearing down on the embattled capital. Now any competent military force should have been able to cross the territory remaining between them and Kyiv in a day or two. But the next day, the reporting was exactly the same – Kyiv still holds – but! Same images, same scare verbiage about this invincible Convoy bearing down. And day after day, same damn thing – poor Kyiv is doomed, because Convoy! Eventually, I started going, wait a minute, shouldn’t they BE there by now?
Baud
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Really? If so, what was the counter offer? The status quo sucked, but I can’t imagine Ukraine would refuse to accept it to stop the killing.
Chetan Murthy
@Baud: The reluctance of our Eastern European allies to transfer those planes, for one. And the fact that the Rube Goldberg apparatus being put in place to make it happen requires that *Congress* approve it. I mean …. jesus. And that our NATO allies haven’t *already* stepped forward with guarantees and forward-based squadrons of existing fighters in Europe. I mean, what does the UK have to fear from Russia *today*? Nothing. They could have already moved forward interceptors to Poland/Romania/Slovakia. Time matters. [from all reports] We’re delivering all sorts of light arms, but nothing heavy. No artillery, no SAM batteries, none of the stuff to take out Russia’s heavy weapons, except antitank weapons.
I’m not going Chicken Little here. I also believe that Russia will lose. I just fear it’ll take a lot longer, with a lot more carnage for our UA allies, than we all think. A whole lot more carnage. And a lot of that, *avoidable* if we and our allies would get more on the stick.
Baud
Via Reddit https://i.redd.it/wuffh2gcf0m81.jpg
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: Can I forget them now that they’re dead?
Gin & Tonic
Reports that another Russian general was KIA outside Kharkiv.
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
Sure. You deserve it!
Gin & Tonic
@Chetan Murthy: Who’s going to fly those fighters? Ukrainians are trained on MiG’s, not NATO aircraft.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
The risk for a campaign that is built around multiple points of encirclement is extended logistic lines that expose you to encirclement.
In Russia’s case, frighteningly, their doctrine means one solution in the event you get into a jam – tactical nuclear weapons.
Sleep well.
WaterGirl
@Chetan Murthy: That’s like 12+ miles.
Betty Cracker
@Sebastian: Just wanted to say I’ve appreciated your comments here and in Adam’s update threads.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Baud: The report I saw said UA told Shit Goblin to sod it and I can see why. If the Russian army lost track of whole divisions like FSB guy claims.
Gin & Tonic
@bbleh: Good time to put in a plug for Serhii Plokhy’s Nuclear Folly: A History of the Cuban Missile Crisis, which relies on materials only recently available in Russia and Ukraine.
Baud
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
That bespeaks of some confidence as to how things are going.
Calouste
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: It wasn’t status quo ante. Putin demands Ukraine cedes the Crimea to Russia and recognizes the two rebel republics. I.e. what was an occupation would be formalized.
bbleh
@Gin & Tonic: Poland has MiGs, so Ukraine would get those. The US aircraft would — per Blinken — “backfill” Poland’s loss.
CaseyL
I was wildly overoptimistic after the first week, then sank into despair the second week. So I’ll try not to feel either optimistic or despairing, but quietly hope that Ukraine (and their allies!) continue feeding Russian troops and materiel through a meat grinder, at a faster and faster rate.
<Cue Randy Rainbow: “Attrition!”
ETA: @Calouste: I think Putin is also demanding that Ukraine make no formal alliances with anyone; i.e,., no NATO or EU membership. Another non-starter.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Calouste: also I believe “demilitarization”, on Russia’s terms, presumably? and a re-write of the UKR constitution to guarantee neutrality
bbleh
@Calouste: @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Yes. I interpreted it more as “ok, you can keep your government — for now — but give us the parts of your country that we want.” It would require formal surrender of territory.
I still think Crimea is going to end up as a bargaining chip, perhaps not with formal surrender of territory but instead with some kind of Hong Kong-type deal, but in any case I don’t blame Ukraine for rejecting this “offer” outright. I wouldn’t trust Putin to live up to his end in any case.
Gin & Tonic
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: No, he wanted official recognition of the “DNR/LNR” and Crimea and naming a PM.
You know, if Russia imposed a PM for Ukraine, I wouldn’t write a life insurance policy for him.
Aziz, light!
@Kay: I also give a wink & a nod to Blinken.
Lapassionara
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I thought His offer was basically “surrender and we’ll stop killing.”
I keep thinking someone needs to find a way to make Putin think that the pre-war status quo would be a “win” for him and Russia.
NotMax
@Baud
RT also is in a cozy relationship with Ora TV, whose ads used to run on this very blog.
Gin & Tonic
@Lapassionara: The only way this ends is with a bullet in Putin’s head. That’s not a sufficient condition, but it is a necessary one.
RaflW
Bellingcat’s Grozev saying that Russian Gen. Maj. Vitaly Gerassimov, chief of staff of the 41 Army, and veteran of Chechen and Syrian offensives, was killed at Kharkiv today.
Will be curious how we get confirmation.
WV Blondie
Here’s one way to deal with reluctant Russian troops – and what worries me: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/07/1084963489/us-russia-is-trying-to-recruit-syrian-fighters-to-go-to-ukraine. How is this different than hiring mercenaries? (What, Eric Prince-of-Darkness wasn’t available?)
OTOH, how does Putin plan to pay them …? Or perhaps Assad will keep paying them and Putin promised his buddy more chemical weapons in return.
Gin & Tonic
@RaflW: Yes, seen that elsewhere as well. That makes two major-generals in the last couple of days.
Excuse me while I go look for my violin.
Geminid
@JoyceH: If and when Russian formations reach Kyiv, they’ll face the toughest part of this offensive. They may just try to encircle the city but even that won’t be easy.
Russia wants to attack up the Dneiper River, which runs from the city of Kherson on the Black Sea all the way to Kyiv. Part of their Black Sea fleet can navigate the Dneiper, and it would make a good supply line. But I don’t think they’ve gotten very far past Kherson yet.
Doug R
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I suspect there is constant contact with some Russian leadership and they’ve got an eye on the nuclear command. Wouldn’t be the first time a Russian officer saved us from nuclear armageddon.
MazeDancer
@Richard Fox:
Richard Engel is an anti-Biden creep. He is Andrea Mitchell in a war zone.
And he insists on using the Russian pronunciation for Kyiv. He pronounces it “KEE-ev”. Which is, basically, being pro-Russian.
Ukrainians call their city “Keev”. But not Richard.
Richard Fox
@bbleh: I would have enjoyed being able to enter a time machine and set it a hundred years from now, to read how future historians treat TFG, Putin, etc. All the vitriolic contempt will be glorious.
Captain C
@Calouste: What if Russia agreed to buy Crimea from Ukraine? For, say, a trillion dollars, cash, plus full withdrawal of forces (including from Donbas &c.) and an ironclad agreement that no Russian forces (other than naval units with minimal marines in Crimea) are allowed within, say 100km of Ukraine’s border.
Other than the fact that neither side would go for it…
CaseyL
@Captain C: Do we know if Crimeans even want to be part of Russia permanently?
And, anyway, Russia is having a little bit of a cash flow problem right now…
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid: First, please use the Ukrainian spelling: Dnipro. Second, they’d have to go upstream. The locks are closed for maintenance.
Captain C
@CaseyL: Supposedly Crimea has a Russian majority, although whether they want to live under Putin is an open question. There’s also the issue of the Crimean Tatars, who are apparently treated very poorly by their current Russian occupiers.
Richard Fox
@MazeDancer: I lost all respect for him over Biden. And I didn’t much like him before that. Your point about his pronunciation seems all of a piece. Lordy.
Gin & Tonic
@CaseyL: Crimea is economically unsustainable for Russia, IMO. It has little agriculture or industry, and operated based on tourism. Since 2014, no Ukrainians have gone, so it’s just Russians, cutting off like half the revenue. It also has no fresh water to speak of. Its main water source was mainland Ukraine, which shut the tap in 2014. Russians have reportedly taken over the water pipeline but can’t restart it (at least yet).
Geminid
@Gin & Tonic: So are you saying that the Russians can’t attack up the Dnipro at all? I read that they wanted to use Kherson as a base of operations for an offensive up the river.
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
What has Crimea done for water since 2014?
Martin
Has something shifted? Yes, and no.
No, in that Ukraine is still holding, so things aren’t measurably better or worse than they were a day or so ago. Russia seems to have stepped up their attack in some ways, and Ukraine is still holding. The Ukrainian strategy seems well through through and well executed, and it’s working. Mind you, it’s not a ‘defeat Russia’ strategy, it’s a ‘make Russia run out of ability to fight’ strategy, which is probably the most they could have hoped for. The arms flowing into Ukraine seem to be doing the job, and that’s a somewhat sustainable situation. The sanctions against Russia are working very well. None of that is different from yesterday or the day before, but each passing day that things are working makes for a bit more confidence that this whole strategy will hold.
Yes, in the sense that Russia made some demands, and while Ukraine will never agree to them, Russia has successfully negotiated itself down to a weaker position than they entered the war. They aren’t winning this. They know they aren’t winning this. And they’re hoping Ukraine will accept a weak outcome in exchange for an end to civilian death.
From the outside it’s easy for someone like me to say that Ukraine should keep their foot in this, and not accept Russia dictating their future, especially since I think Russias word has zero value, but I’m also resigned to the fact that Putin will extract his gallon of blood from Ukrainian civilians no matter what and right now we are as close to a global coalition against Russia as ever before. Chechyn civilians paid, and we didn’t use that price to save Syrian civilians. Syrian civilians paid and we didn’t use that price to save Ukrainian civilians. Perhaps Ukrainian civilians can save Putin’s next target. I know that’s a terrible and cynical way of looking at this, but that’s how this works. If we don’t stop Putin, he’s just going to find another population to slaughter for his own goals. At some point you have to say ‘enough’ and take the cost of doing so on the chin.
debbie
Does anyone know how long Anonymous’s hack into Russian state television lasted? Google’s not providing an answer.
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: Read.
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid: Not unless they bring a lot of engineers.
Captain C
@Gin & Tonic:
I had a Facebook friend suggestion of someone I knew in High School (the guy who hooked me up with a couple of early Rush albums, oddly enough). I checked out his profile, and it showed a fairly recent (2019?) check-in to Occupied Crimea. I suspect he’s fallen into the whole world of Trumpism/Putinism like a few of the party people who hung out with him in High School have.
PJ
@Gin & Tonic: I knew about the Able Archer incident in ’83, but this weekend was the first time I had heard about the Russian sub being depth charged during the Cuban Missile Crisis where the sub commander wanted to launch a nuke but was overruled by the squadron commander and the politruk: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1500186250246037506
CaseyL
@Gin & Tonic: Does Crimea’s value as a warm water port (I think that’s why Russia has been so keen to acquire the place) outweight its downside as an arid economic wasteland?
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
Thanks!
Lyrebird
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: @Calouste: @WaterGirl:
My understanding is that today the R message dropped the requirement for demilitarization, just no NATO no EU.
I’m having trouble finding the link where I saw it, I think it was a DKos comment but not on their most recent thread. [ETA: Looks like Martin says something similar, and Martin usually goes for good sources!]
If true, that is some compelling evidence that things are shifting. Wouldn’t know what Blinken is thinking. Bet he arrived on the new job with a very demoralized Ukraine team!
Rand Careaga
@JoyceH:
Zeno’s Convoy: “Antelope Freeway, one mile. Antelope Freeway, on-half mile. Antelope Freeway, one-quarter mile. Antelope Freeway, one-eighth mile…”
WaterGirl
@Baud: Obviously the bear is Russia and the little blue and yellow lego is Ukraine.
But what are we supposed to take away from that? To me it seems to be saying that Ukraine doesn’t stand a chance, but whenever I see that posted that doesn’t make sense.
So what am i missing?
debbie
@Lyrebird:
It may be compelling, but no way on no NATO or EU; otherwise, this will happen all over again.
Nelle
@Geminid: I’ve gone by ship up the Dnieper River (we started in Odessa and then went up the river at Kherson) all the way to Kyiv. There are several wide reservoirs, but there are also locks that have to be gone through. One of them was quite a transition to a higher water (I was a wee bit claustrophobic down in the bottom of that one). It would be tedious and ships would be sitting ducks in the locks.
Gin & Tonic
@CaseyL: I don’t know how to answer that – meaning I’m not among the Russians who get to decide.
debbie
@WaterGirl:
That’s a Lego piece and the bear’s about to experience a lot of pain.
Gin & Tonic
@WaterGirl: Have you ever stepped on a LEGO block in the middle of the night?
Baud
@WaterGirl:
You’ve obviously never stepped on a Lego in bare (bear?) feet. That shit hurts.
Martin
@Gin & Tonic: Crimea has national strategic value because of Sevastopol. That’s pretty much the only reason to have it. If Ukraine had Crimea, Russia’s ability to launch amphibious assaults would be vastly weaker. Crimea only makes sense if you plan on invading Ukraine, Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria or Romania. The Bosporus makes the Black Sea a bit of a nightmare since it needs to function almost completely independently of all other naval efforts because you have to assume that anytime you do anything interesting, Turkey will lock you in or out.
Captain C
@CaseyL: Perhaps they figure it has high value as a resort area in more normal times. Plus, losing it seems rather high on the Russian grievance scale. Of course, the “it’s always been ours” line is kind of bullshit in light of the fact that it was only conquered by Russia in 1783 (that is, 7 years after the U.S. Declaration of Independence).
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: PM as in Prime Minister, yes? Just wondering if PM means something else in that part of the world.
Captain C
@WaterGirl:
Ever step on a lego piece?
Josie
@WaterGirl:
Have you ever stepped on a Lego barefoot in the dark? It hurts and then you slide a mile.
ETA: I see others got there ahead of me.
debbie
Martin
@Baud: More directly, it stops you in your tracks. It hurts so much that you have to stop and tend to your painful foot rather than getting on with where you are going. It’s a small thing that looks innocuous, but also stops you in your tracks.
Gin & Tonic
@WaterGirl: Correct.
Gin & Tonic
@debbie: Yeah, unfortunately that was a video compression artifact. Higher-res video of the same scene looks fine.
jonas
@Alison Rose ???: I have to say I was a bit skeptical at first about Zelensky — he seemed a bit out of his depth and a little squishy in the weeks leading up to the war. But damn. That guy has shown the world over the past two weeks what brass balls look like.
People underestimated Lincoln, too, I guess. How can a hick country lawyer from Illinois lead a nation in war? Well, we know how that turned out.
Ruckus
@FlyingToaster:
Putin believes he is the smartest man in the entire universe. There is a fair amount of evidence that this is untrue. He also believes that everyone will do exactly as he wants them to, even if he has not close to enough information and intelligence to support that view. He lives in a country that anything he says he wants he gets. Outside of that country maybe not so much. And he has just asked for something outside the country that he’s unlikely to get because he demanded something that he can’t have. The word petulant was bandied about in a previous thread but it works as a description of vova. Petulant fuck is about the best description of vova that I can think of.
Doug R
@Gin & Tonic: The shoulder line with the plant and the head line with the wall both have that chromakey line.
Martin
@Captain C: Uh, Russia doesn’t have a trillion dollars. Their M1 money supply is 60 trillion rubles, which at the current dollar exchange rate is less than $500B. That’s literally every liquid ruble there is. That was also last year, before everyone started freezing Russian reserve currencies.
Russia is a big place, with a lot of people, and not a lot of money. And what money they could have had, the oligarchs siphoned off to buy yachts and other shit. What’s more, Russia needs every penny they have just to keep the lights on right now.
Mallard Filmore
I am late to this thread, but here is my wild guess, based strictly on favorable internet postings.
Russia is not able to supply their troops with food, fuel, or bullets. Soon some units larger than squad are going to put up signs “Will surrender for food”.
Russia has flown some of their forces out of Syria, and mercenaries out of Africa. Turkey has closed the straights to warships (except for those returning to their declared home ports).
Countries that depend on wheat and corn from Ukraine and Russia will hurt later this year. It will cause many government friendships with Russia to fall apart. Putin’s vision for how the world should work will not be shared outside Russia.
MazeDancer
Here are 7 total badass Ukrainian women in full battle gear giving the Rusky conscripts fair warning.
Slava Ukraini!
https://twitter.com/nikamelkozerova/status/1500879877741891589?s=21
Geminid
@Nelle: Yes, the Russians would need to secure the areas around the locks. And they would have to deal with sunken block ships, mines, maybe even dropped bridges and destroyed locks.
They still may hope to secure the river as a means of subjugating Ukraine. They might never get to the first dam, though, much less past it.
WaterGirl
@debbie: @Gin & Tonic: @Baud:
I never have stepped on a Lego piece. I wondered if that was it when I finally noticed the little nubs on top.
Thank you all!
Sebastian
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
Tactical nukes do not resupply stalled tank columns.
debbie
@Gin & Tonic:
I found a side-by-side clip here and you’re right. I thought bad compression only resulted in less detail, not distortions like stabbing his hand with the mic.
WaterGirl
@debbie: Then someone came up with a high resolution version of the video and supposedly debunked the debunking.
I don’t know what’s real and what’s not with that.
But I love that it makes Putin look like a fool, and even if it’s bullshit, let’s hope that is one lie that makes it halfway around the world before the debuting gains any traction.
West of the Cascades
Will a Javelin serve as an anti-ship weapon if the ship’s in a river?
trollhattan
@debbie:
Saw that. Great eval of the Fake (truly) video and nothing prepared me for the Zelinsky callout at the end. Guy has an A game and nothing but.
Impossible to imagine how he’s kept going at this level all this time.
zhena gogolia
@MazeDancer: Strictly speaking, the Russian pronunciation isn’t Ki-ev. It’s just spelled that way. It’s Ki-iv.
artem1s
@Frankensteinbeck:
You are right, I did not have “Putin turns out to be a worse leader than TFG” on my bingo card
catclub
That is sounding like breaking enigma in WW2
trollhattan
@West of the Cascades:
I’ve been wondering whether Ukraine has any shore-to-ship missiles because defending Odessa seems paramount. Bringing ships up a river does seem…chancy.
NotMax
Couple of items which recently caught the eye.
(WaPo link.)
Gin & Tonic
@catclub: A lot simpler, probably. In Russia, *everything* is for sale. Everything.
Mallard Filmore
@Gin & Tonic:
I guess his head in a bag is too old school.
Captain C
@Martin:
Well, yes. Of course, if they were somehow able to raise it, they’d have no money for mischief anywhere else for a long time.
Gin & Tonic
@trollhattan: Reportedly they took out one of the ships today using GRADs.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@catclub: Frank Figliuzzi, who was head of counterintelligence with the FBI, said Putin has to be wondering who and how close the leak is
debbie
@Mallard Filmore:
Glued to the back of a turtle would work for me.
Ken
@Martin: You’re reminding me of how long it’s been since I played Diplomacy. A fleet in the Black Sea was always viewed with great suspicion.
jackmac
@Gin & Tonic:
It’s often not just one Lego, but the first of several (or many) as kids leave a minefield in the dark (at least that’s been my personal experience).
West of the Cascades
@trollhattan: I’ve been wondering that too – and whether portable anti-tank weapons can be repurposed in some limited way to attack ships or landing craft effectively. It just seems like there are a lot of those in Ukraine right now and it’s easier to get more in than larger weaponry.
burnspbesq
@Frankensteinbeck:
In the not too distant future, Putin is going to have to face the fact that his military simply can’t do the capture-and-occupy mission he gave it. What happens after that may look a lot like an abusive ex-husband on a killing spree.
Geminid
@West of the Cascades: I don’t really know. It might take multiple Javelins for some ships. Some of Russia’s warships that can operate on that river are pretty good sized. I guess a Javelin in the right place could wreck an engine room, which would take the ship out of the fight.
There may never be Russian ships operating on that river, though, at least not north of the first dam above Kherson. I think the Russians thought that they would control those dams and locks by now, just like they thought they would control Kyiv and Kharkhiv.
SiubhanDuinne
@Aziz, light!:
Oh, well done!!
Brit in Chicago
@Kay: “A high quality hire”
Agreed, and not uncommon in this administration, unlike some I seem dimly to recall…. (Not just tfg: “Heck of a job, Brownie….”)
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Let’s hope Putin doesn’t murder everyone who surrounds him.
Or maybe he can, just not the person who is (likely) working against Putin.
Mike in NC
I’m think I know who will be the TIME Person of the Year for 2022.
Kalakal
@West of the Cascades: It could certainly do some damage. In the Falklands War a company of Royal Marines severely mauled an Argentinian corvette leading the invasion of South Georgia using LAWS and sniper fire. It was in no danger of sinking but they shot down its helicopter, destroyed the bridge and wrecked its Exocet missile launchers. I’m sure the Ukranians would have a lot more AT missiles available than 22 Royal Marines isolated on an Antarctic island and the target would be a sitting duck
sanjeevs
@trollhattan: A Russian corvette was hit from the shore yesterday
Ukrainian Navy in deadly attack on Russian stealth warship (defence-blog.com)
Alison Rose ???
@MazeDancer: They are ready to deliver some serious FAFO to some Russians and I love it
burnspbesq
@bbleh:
Trust a guy whose troops shell agreed-upon evacuation routes? I don’t think so.
Geminid
@Kalakal: The Ukrainians evidently also still have artillery on the southern front. At least they say that last night they used an artillery strike to destroy 30 Russian helicopters sitting on an airfield near Kherson.
The Dnipro River is pretty wide, but it looks like someone standing on one bank could shoot a Javelin and hit a boat near the other bank. The Dnipro is counted as Europe’s fourth largest river, behind the Danube and two others.
SiubhanDuinne
I’ll probably post this again in a later thread, but wanted to call this upcoming event to everyone’s attention:
CaseyL
@catclub: Or… maybe Putin’s had some dental work lately…
Another Scott
@japa21:
That strikes me too.
IIRC, the metadata for a couple of Putin’s “public” meetings indicate that they were recorded a few days before they were released. Perhaps the US had copies of those tapes before they were released to the public? And that’s why Biden was so confident that the invasion was coming? Dunno (I haven’t checked the exact timing).
I’m also recalling the story that Gen Milley called up his Chinese counterpart and told him that there was no way TFG was going to attack China without Milley having discussions with them first. One has to assume that similar military-to-military conversations go on among the big powers all the time. And that kind of trust, as well as all the other stuff, gives Biden confidence of what’s going on in the Kremlin and with Russia’s strategic forces.
Just a guess though.
Cheers,
Scott.
PJ
@Gin & Tonic: The “high quality” version totally looks like it was shot in front of a green screen. It might be real, but it looks really fake.
Sloane Ranger
@bbleh: If the Poles sent all their MIG’s to Ukraine and got US planes in return, their pilots would have to retrain for the new planes and that would take time. In the meantime, Poland would either have no airforce to speak off or be reliant on other NATO countries for air defense. As a matter of national pride, I would assume they wouldn’t want that.
There is probably a solution where Poland would be prepared to give up a certain number of MIG’s immediately but it would be a small number given that the Polish airforce isn’t that large by US standards and, the inability to deploy them, if necessary, will affect their operational effectiveness.
Kalakal
@Geminid: A lot would depend on the draft of the ship(s) and the position of the navigable channel. I doubt the Russians could just hug the far bank. Javelins have a range of about 2.5 miles, NLAWS about 0.5.
Never knew it was that big a river.
Rusty
@Gin & Tonic: I think the point is Poland, etc. don’t want to give up their MIGs until they are sure the US will give them replacements of US fighters. That’s why congress needs to approve the sales, then the MIGs can go.
burnspbesq
@Nelle:
One imagines that the Ukrainians have thought this through, and either surrounded the locks with appropriate anti-ship munitions, and/or made plans to sabotage the locks, thereby making the river non-navigable. These folks have their shit together.
Gin & Tonic
@burnspbesq: As I said upthread, the locks are “closed for maintenance” and have been so since January.
NextInGA
@Sloane Ranger:
Poland is already switching over to F16 and other US air craft. They own several and have pilots trained with other aircraft (I think F22 but could be wrong) ordered and scheduled for delivery. Not sure if all the MiG pilots are cross trained, so there could still be a hang up, but it’s not as bad as a complete “from scratch” switchover for the Polish air force.
Omnes Omnibus
Has something changed? Yes, the Russians are losing right now. The Ukrainians aren’t winning yet, but the Russians are definitely losing.
Cameron
@NotMax: So Russians and Ukrainians are just driving their cars over the border to seek asylum, and almost all of them are allowed to remain pending disposition of their claims. Now why couldn’t those Central Americans think of that?
Omnes Omnibus
@Mike in NC: Putin?
tom
@MazeDancer: Those Ukraine girls really knock me out.
JaySinWa
@WaterGirl: A lot of the leaks seem designed to fuel Putin’s paranoia. It seems some of this is psyops, using information from broad sourcing and attributing it to close Putin associates.
Ken B
@Richard Fox:
@Calouste:
Also, demanded that Ukraine pledge to remain nuetral; in other words, never join NATO or (probably) the EU.
burnspbesq
@Cameron:
It might have something to do with most Russians and Ukrainians appearing to be white.
JaySinWa
@Cameron: They did that with bribed military reservists doing the driving and the passengers in hiding. These people have the advantage of being the
rightwhite kind of driver and passenger.Or what burnspbesq said.
The Pale Scot
@stacib:
The bunkers are mostly left over from the Soviet Era
Kalakal
@Calouste: And that no doubt would be his “last territorial demand in Europe”
except for the next one. Leaving aside the fact that Putin should not gain anything from his criminal actions, I’d trust him as far as I can throw my own liver.
burnspbesq
@The Pale Scot:
There are also some stations in the Kyiv subway whose escalators make the ones in the Bethesda Metro station look short by comparison.
Gin & Tonic
@burnspbesq: Yup. Arsenalna, goes down 105 meters. And the escalators go *fast*.
Kalakal
@Gin & Tonic: 105 meters! Good grief
David Fud
Here’s another change in Ukraine, the leader of their 41st Army is killed.
https://mobile.twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500959074653024259
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Another Scott
@Baud: Gotten drier.
A good Bloomberg opinion piece from March 2021:
I thought I read somewhere that there was a water pipeline on the bridge, but I’ve not seen that since (and if it did exist it would probably be far too small for the region anyway, especially if they want to restore irrigated agriculture).
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
WaterGirl
@JaySinWa: Just win, baby!
CROAKER
@Sebastian: All must go simultaneously to be successful. By applying pressure across three fronts. The defender has to draw resources down to prevent failure. The attacker must keep pressure going simultaneously for this to work.
I will speak only in terms of how you do this from experience
(1) Terrain – it has been an always will be in the favor of the defender – difficult going is best known by the defender as ambushes are more easily set
(2) Resources and Control – its easier to keep a cohesion in depth … unit control becomes more difficult with extension – well laid battle plans include things you must are recognized losses – light troops and defendable terrain (*I WILL NOT SPEAK OF ANYTHING ELSE*)
(3) Unit cohesion aka Morale – critical factor here – in order to keep the battle line in formation you need a core of elite fighting units – chwala to Ukraina
(4) Leadership – clearly is decisive – competent leadership is critical – as Command extends through the chain
(5) Reserve – keeping a competent – not elite corp in reserve for plugging gaps – I have done this with poor quality troops before it does work – they are there defensively not offensively
All warfare is horrific – modern warfare is shameful.
Respectfully,
Croaker
Gin & Tonic
@David Fud: Please note that is a Major-General in *Russia’s* army.
Frankensteinbeck
A thought happened in the dark, echoing emptiness of my brain. People keep saying that Putin can’t be overthrown because his inner circle are picked for loyalty. Trump picked his inner circle for loyalty, too. When you pick for loyalty you get, as Kay refers to it, Low Quality Hires, and those are notoriously unreliable in the loyalty department as well as everything else.
Gin & Tonic
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: Ukraine is saying 11,000. If it’s even half that, then it’s more than they lost in Chechnya.
Mike in NC
@Gin & Tonic: We got a tour of the Metro in Saint Petersburg several years ago. Very steep escalators.
Gin & Tonic
@Frankensteinbeck: As I’ve seen elsewhere – if anything is going to happen here, we will learn about it when Putin is in a box, and not a moment sooner.
Gin & Tonic
Frankensteinbeck
@Gin & Tonic:
I agree.
Niques
@WaterGirl: Ever step on a Lego barefoot? It will take you down!
edit: oops, should’ve read further.
The Pale Scot
@Sebastian:
What do the people of Donbass want? I’ve read that the majority do not want to ruled by Moscow, and I’ve read the opposite. The separatists seem like our ammosexuals, pissed that blue collar work doesn’t pay like it use to, the cute girls went to school and left or won’t give them the time of day. Like East Germany, it’s same thing with their Neo-nazi problem, no route to advancement, few women to chat up.
My opinion for years has been for the UAK to let them leave, give the RU access to the water they need. Optimal would a DMZ. I understand that UAK still pays the pensions in Donbass. That could be a sweetener.
This of course was before the invasion, I got nuthin’ now
cain
That might be the worst thing to come out of this – Russia’s armies are not as fearsome as one would expect. That’s going to hurt. Never mind that their own people are rebelling.
The Pale Scot
The MSM isn’t reporting that the Russkies are moving thru a watery area, and the UAK guys are blowing the bridges. And they are waiting until the RU guys choose a route and commit. That’s how that officer who died blowing up a bridge did it. they wait until the last second. Now the RU have to bring up big, bulky complex equipment to build new bridges, except the roads are jammed with trucks. Which are using up their fuel tanks to run the engines that power the heaters that keeps the diesel warm.
This is like the time my friends and decided to drop acid and go to CBGB’s…….. Ten hours later 3 spaced out guys are sitting in Tomkin’s Park wondering where the fuck CBGB’s is and wondering why the hell the sun is coming up
Calouste
If Ukraine have indeed taken out two Russian generals in a week (and the first one seems to be confirmed), that seems to suggest to me that:
1) Russia doesn’t have as much control over the territory they are in as they think they have.
and/or
2) Ukraine has some really good information, maybe even inside information, about where these guys hang out.
It not like generals walk around on the battlefield in their dozens and sometimes you just hit one at random.
Steeplejack
@debbie:
I read that the Anonymous “TV hack” had been debunked, but I can’t find confirmation either way. When I looked earlier it seemed a bit iffy that all of the news stories appeared to be relying on only one source.
cain
@Captain C: Trillion dollars – probably not rubles.. that would be like what? 10 dollars? You couldn’t even go to town at a McDonalds for that much.
cain
Hate to see Rush fans fall into that kind of trap. Not sure how you could enjoy their music with that world view. Then again, these people reportedly also are very religious so.. maybe they can.
prostratedragon
[There have been other answers, though I like the poison barbs, which the bear won’t be able to shake off very soon.]
cain
@Ruckus: Considering how intimidated he looked when facing Obama..
Drove the GOP crazy – they hated that their man looked so weak.
The Thin Black Duke
@cain: Unfortunately some folks into Rush also idolized Ayn Rand as well.
lowtechcyclist
@Sloane Ranger:
Good Lord, if they’re going to put ‘national pride’ ahead of being able to rescue a neighboring country from near-obliteration – shouldn’t that be a matter of even greater national pride? Seriously here. Ukraine would probably celebrate the anniversary of the planes’ delivery for decades to come. With a holiday, festivities, fireworks, the whole nine yards.
Unfortunately, the U.S. government is also a big part of the problem:
And then of course Congress would also have to approve the deal.
Is it possible to get Ukraine the damn jets before the whole country is reduced to rubble? After that, it would hardly matter.
cain
Yeah, they like the first three albums and that’s about all the Rand Neil had the stomach for :D. After 2112, it was all humanistic, self reflection. They also became way better musicians.
Yeah, so called libertarians liked the old stuff. None of them I know like the new stuff. Their last album reads like a commentary on the current political nonsense and that was in 2015!
prostratedragon
@debbie: I try to avoid the sanguinary, but in the spirit of efficiency, there’s a turtle I could propose …
Uncle Cosmo
When I rode them in 2011 they reminded me of the ones in the deeper stations on the Prague metro and Lines 2 & 3 in Budapest**, built by the Communist regimes and dual-purposed as blast/fallout shelters. Real people movers.*** IIRC EU regulations compelled both nations to slow them down; now many riders walk while they ride because they take too long, and most of the rest stand to the right to give them room.
** Line 1 of the Budapest metro was the first one in continental Europe (built 1896) and the tracks are only a couple dozen steps down from the surface – essentially they just dug up the middle of Andrássy út & laid the tracks there. Cute little cars. (NB both Line 1 and the street above are now UNESCO World Heritage Sites. You could look it up.)
*** Soon after my arrival in Budapest in July 1989, a transsonic metro escalator tried to gobble one of my bags via a loose strap. They had to shut the thing down & throw it into reverse to dislodge it. For a couple of tense minutes I thought I was getting arrested, but the transit cop waved it off – apparently it happened all the time. /trivia
Sebastian
Not sure if it was mentioned already but first strikes have started. Autoworkers didn’t get paid.
Villago Delenda Est
Watergirl: Fighters are aircraft that fire on other aircraft. They were developed to take out reconnaissance aircraft. No matter what the zoomies tell you, the first mission of military aircraft is reconnaissance. So, in order to counter those planes, fighters were developed. Then, other fighters to fight fighters. Then, bombers. Then, fighter-bombers, who can fulfill both roles: dropping ordnance on the enemy while being able to somewhat defend themselves from other fighters. Bombers are usually very large planes (think Boeing 707 sized and above) that drop bombs and have minimal defenses, usually machine guns mounted to inflict some damage on fighters attacking them. Interceptors are fighters with the role of going after incoming fighters, fighter-bombers, and bombers. Transports usually have no defenses at all and rely on fighters to protect them.
Sebastian
@Calouste:
From what I’ve read Putin is livid and demanding the generals fix the mess. Since in Russia everything is top-down and the lower ranks have no authority or initiative, the big boss has to come down and shout at the underlings. Preferably looking scary, leading with his impressive belly (signaling status), and waving hands wildly. Perfect sniper target as it were.
Gin & Tonic
Emanuel Ax and Yo-Yo Ma performing Ukrainian National Anthem to open a Kennedy Center concert.
debbie
@Steeplejack:
Rats. I was really hoping it was true.
CaseyL
@Sebastian: You mean in Russia? How’d you hear that? I doubt their news services are covering the story. (I’m not doubting you, just wondering how word got out.)
prostratedragon
@David Fud: Coda mentioned in the link is that the news was first intercepted from a non-secure phone call made by the Russians in the field, because they had already destroyed the local 3G and 4G cell towers that their secure phones required to establish communications.
Lyrebird
Hi, might be far too late on this thread, but let me say I totally agree. I was just calling the evidence compelling that the Ukrainian resistance is making a difference, not the offer itself.
Villago Delenda Est
@prostratedragon: This is what happens when you fuck with the Signal Corps.
Villago Delenda Est
@Steeplejack: The one source that gives them the juiciest stories to enhance their ratings, and of course in turn, revenue.
Sebastian
@Betty Cracker:
Thank you, Betty! I am a big fanboy of yours *swoon
Peale
@David Fud: perhaps they should use Truth for their secret communications. No one else is.
No One of Consequence
@Baud: I will vote for you even if you choose Random Villain or Ruinous Concept for a running mate in 2022 or 2026! Purely on appreciation of that link.
(How do some people create imagery so perfectly simple, that conveys so much?)
Peace (the People’s Favorite since before Vanilla was invented),
– NOoC
Sebastian
@NotMax:
First Germany, now Japan!
Sebastian
@CROAKER:
Thank you! I don’t know if you tracked, but for days I’ve been searching for info on the Ukrainian reserves and refurbishing of captured armor. I think I found something. I’ll post in Adam’s update.
Sebastian
@CaseyL:
Here you go. This will get worse very fast.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iUNVtVQjKMY
Miss Bianca
@Mallard Filmore:
This is reminding me irresistibly of a scene from a Lois McMaster Bujold novel, where her heroine Cordelia presents her husband and a ruling council with a rebel leader’s head in a bag crowing, “I went shopping!”
moonbat
@Betty Cracker: Seconded
West of the Cascades
@Sebastian: from your fingertips to Bog’s ears!!
James E Powell
@Gin & Tonic:
Back when I visited the CCCP, the three most common signs were prohibited, closed, and repairs.
Kent
Apparently the latest Russian offer being reported is that the Russians will leave if:
If that is their OPENING offer then they are indeed in dire shape.
Source: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1500832884004831232?s=20&t=xySMDB70V1Kb1qipaVeFrA
Miss Bianca
@Kent: Can’t help but think of *this* as a potential Zelenskyy response.
Kalakal
As well as all his other idiocies Putin’s going to go down as histories worst arms salesman. I imagine the order books for Russian weaponry must be a bleak sight after this debacle
Villago Delenda Est
@Kent: All three are utterly unacceptable. The first one is a blatant attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty, the latter two are outright theft.
WaterGirl
@Villago Delenda Est: thank you so much.
lowtechcyclist
@Villago Delenda Est: No question about it, but the point is, this is what they were demanding two weeks ago, before the current invasion began. They don’t feel that 12 days of fighting has left them in a position to demand any more than they demanded before they fired the first shot.
IOW, they know things aren’t going that well for them.
Gotta wonder about #3 at this point, though. Beforehand, there apparently was a fair amount of pro-Russian partisanship in Donetsk and Luhansk. I wonder how much this invasion has changed that: if they were granted independence now, after what’s happened over the past twelve days, would they still lean Russian, or would they rejoin Ukraine at the first opportunity?
Original Lee
@Miss Bianca: IIRC, the bag was a shopping bag from the favorite dress shop of the elites. One of my favorite scenes.