We’ll start with the Ukrainian ambassador to the United Nations.
Ukrainian Ambassador holds up a tweet from Lavrov and advises Russian diplomats that they can obtain assistance for mental help from the NHS by dialing 111 pic.twitter.com/bFoqyKYJ6Q
— Acyn (@Acyn) March 7, 2022
And now a word from the real Mom’s for Liberty:
Here is the full video of Ukraine's women-warriors' address to Russians. I am so proud. pic.twitter.com/EOzS9YlU9W
— Nika Melkozerova (@NikaMelkozerova) March 7, 2022
And some remarks from President Zelenskyy:
Day 12 of Russia’s full-on invasion of Ukraine. Where’s President Zelensky?
“I’m staying in Kyiv. In my office. I’m not hiding. And I’m not afraid of anyone.”
The comic turned president has truly become a wartime leader. pic.twitter.com/dKbzYWwpbo
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 7, 2022
President Zelenskyy has also recalled all Ukrainian forces and equipment detailed to the UN for peacekeeping missions:
⚡️President Zelensky signs decree on March 8 recalling Ukrainian peacekeeping forces to defend Ukraine.
The decree declares that all soldiers and equipment dedicated to U.N. peacekeeping operations must return to Ukraine to assist in the war effort.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022
I’m still fried, so I’m getting this done as quickly as I can so I can go rack out.
I want to start with the thread below, because it overlaps with my comment last night about no one being able to predict how the Russian reinvasion of and war on Ukraine will turn out. Also, before I get to the thread, the 30 years war bit last night was a joke. It did not require a two paragraph response in the comments. Work with me people!!!!
First tweet followed by the rest of the thread copied and pasted into a bulletized list in a quote box:
? I sat through an intel update this afternoon. While I can’t get specific, what I will say is that the view of the war that we are getting from expertly curated UKR IO is giving a lot of folks an impression of not only RUS incompetence but also UKR dominance. 1/6
— Strategy Badger (@ErrantStrategry) March 7, 2022
- The excellent work of accounts like@RALee85 and @OSINTtechnical further reinforce this. They are not pushing disinfo, but they are providing reinforcement of an impression that the RF are wholly indisciplined and wildly incompetent. 2/6
- The RF absolutely feature these things. But what we are not seeing is the mil successes they are having. Recall they are advancing and they are taking ground. Just really slow. 3/6
- UKR derived media are only showing UKR success stories or CIVCAS. They are doing a fantastic job staying on message. The media we see make it seem like farmers and students and old men and women are mauling the RF. While we almost never see their regular units in action. 4/6
- The fact is that RUS is having some success, and while they’ve lost a sizable amount of personnel and equipment, it’s only a small percentage of the total they brought. While each UKR loss, especially of their regular soldiers and pilots, is irreplaceable. 5/6
- My point is that we must keep cheering on UKR to resist, but we must begin to accept that even though some RF is twisted into knots, they still have a lot of force available and time is likely on their side if they are will to endure the punishing sanctions and casualties. 6/6
- I want to be very clear: nothing here is derived from the intel. It simply reinforced/affirmed my suspicions after critically thinking about the imagery and messaging we have been steadily fed. I’m deeply impressed with the UKR IO discipline. It is working!
I think this is a very good point to keep in mind. We need to be able to separate the reporting from the very well done Information and Psychological Warfare. Even the Ukrainian news media sources I’ve been providing are clearly leaning heavily in to “we’re holding, we’re beating them back, look how terrible they are”, etc. It’s completely understandable, but it is also something we have to keep in mind. Especially as everyone doing the digital portions of the OSINT* – that’s the videos and geolocated imagery – are working very hard not to publish or post anything that would harm the Ukrainians and help the Russians. Which just further compounds this effect.
Russia released new demands today. They’re as bad as yesterday’s, just in wholly new ways. So ignore the people commenting along the lines of “still bad, but we’re seeing movement”. If this is movement, it is not movement in a positive direction.
Peskov just essentially confirmed this, less the PM part of course (screen via @bazabazon ) pic.twitter.com/v9tO3HvVIb
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 7, 2022
It is VERY, VERY important to remember that Russia runs this same strategy over and over and over again. Completely unacceptable, never going to happen demands are made, then withdrawn or never remarked on again, while new unacceptable and never going to happen demands are made all to provide the appearance of reasonableness and a willingness to resolve matters through diplomatic means. All while consolidating gains, moving reinforcements into place, resupplying, and ignoring the humanitarian ceasefires it has agreed to through diplomatic negotiations. I’m sure tomorrow we’ll see a new, but equally bonkers set of demands from Russia about what it would take to get Russia to stop reinvading and waging war on Ukraine.
And the Russians, of course, are still targeting civilians!
⚡️Children among dead after Russian air raid on residential buildings in Sumy.
Head of Sumy Regional State Administration Dmitry Zhivitsky said in a video message on Facebook on March 7 that at least 10 people were killed as a result of targeted bombings by Russia on Sumy.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022
Speaking of bonkers!
Separately, some members of congress are beginning to advocate for a non-kinetic no-fly zone – something to the effect of using electromagnetic pulse, sonar, and cyber to keep Russian jets on the ground so they can never take off. Unclear how much support this will end up getting
— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) March 7, 2022
Let me just take a moment to clarify, we here, and just about everyone everywhere, has been using the term no fly zone. What everyone in Ukraine is actually asking for, despite using the term no fly zone, is denial of flight through the creation of an air exclusion zone over Ukraine. What some members of Congress are suggesting above is not how you create an air exclusion zone. I know there’s an EMP caucus, or at least working group, but they really need to stop listening to Gingrich. As for using sonar or cyber to ground Russian jets, I don’t know how you’d use the former unless we’ve either got DC’s Black Canary, Marvel’s Banshee, Banshee’s daughter Siren, or Black Bolt suddenly available. As for Cyber, that is way out of my area of expertise, but I’m pretty sure this isn’t the Cylons hacking all the networked battlestars leaving only Galactica operational.
The Russians are continuing their targets of electrical generating infrastructure, as well as any place that could, potentially, cause a radiological incident or major environmental damage.
⚡️Two oil depots in Zhytomyr Oblast on fire after air strikes.
According to the State Emergency Service, the targeted oil depots are in Zhytomyr and Cherniahiv. The fire has been extinguished. No casualties have been reported yet.
Video: State Emergency Service of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/il97wfmMwI
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 7, 2022
⚡️Nuclear research facility in Kharkiv damaged by shelling, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency said on March 7.
Ukraine’s nuclear regulator does not report an increase in radiation levels at the site.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022
Major General Vitaliy Gerasimov, the chief of staff with Russia’s 41st Combined Arms Army, has been eliminated by Ukraine's military intelligence operators.
I still don’t get it what Russians are hoping for in this war. pic.twitter.com/LBWPYpAFMN— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) March 7, 2022
This has now been confirmed! Long thread explaining how it was confirmed:
Jesus, Ukraine just killed Gen. Maj. Vitaly Gerassimov, chief of staff of the 41 Army. At Kharkiv.
Russia, if you're listening: delete your army.— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 7, 2022
Here’s a bayraktar drone doing what it is supposed to do.
#Ukraine: We present some exclusive recent footage from the eyes of the Bayraktar TB2 drone in the hands of the Ukrainian military.
A 9K317 Buk-M2 TELAR, part of the infamous convoy, completely destroyed. pic.twitter.com/PUiWkeOPwm
— ?? Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 7, 2022
Christopher Miller is reporting that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is reporting that Ukrainian forces have brought down two Russian jets:
I don’t see any photos yet but Ukraine’s armed forces claims to have shot down two Russian planes somewhere over Kyiv at 830pm and 910pm local time. https://t.co/Fl7GZwkGM1
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 7, 2022
Here’s video of a downed SU-34, not sure if it is part of the tally Miller is reporting:
The wreckage of that Russian Su-34 bomber (RF-95070) shot down yesterday in Kharkiv. https://t.co/KXtH9faD4T pic.twitter.com/fZtr2qb63e
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 7, 2022
If you’re wondering why it is so hard for the US to actually do something meaningful in terms of the Russian oligarchs that operate here, this is a large portion of why:
We’re going to spend *years* trying to disentangle just how widely Russian oligarchic wealth infiltrated Western jurisdictions and industries.
Non-profits. Museums. Cultural organizations. Sports. Real estate. Private equity. Venture capital. Art.
Absolutely everywhere.
— Casey Michel ?? (@cjcmichel) March 2, 2022
Great to see our research with @dszakonyi and @acdatacollectiv cited in this Washington Post piece on the tidal wave of money Russian oligarchs have given to American non-profits: https://t.co/gFA12We5Sl
— Casey Michel ?? (@cjcmichel) March 7, 2022
Basically, they’ve completely insinuated themselves and their businesses into funding Republican political campaigns and conservative causes, as well as using their money to launder their reputations through charitable organizations. Britain has an even worse problem with this than the US does, which is why the UK has sanctioned only about 15 oligarchs. The entire pro-Brexit movement, as well as the Tory Party are completely penetrated by the oligarchs and their money.
Apparently, some folks in the Kremlin are getting squeamish.
President Vladimir Putin has alienated some top Russian officials since the early stages of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian journalist Farida Rustamova reported.
According to the journalist Ilya Lozovsky’s English translation of Rustamova’s Tuesday report, officials and members of parliament she spoke with said they were increasingly worried about how Putin was handling the war.
“In reality, the attitude toward the war within the corridors of power is ambiguous,” Rustamova wrote, according to Lozovsky, whose translation she shared on Twitter and reposted in her Substack newsletter. “I came to this conclusion after speaking with several members of parliament and officials at various levels. Many of them are discouraged, frightened, and are making apocalyptic forecasts.”
Rustamova recently fled the country and previously worked for the BBC Russian Service — which has since been suspended by the London-based network — as well as Meduza and the RBC, an investigative outlet that experienced a mass resignation in 2016.
“No one is rejoicing,” a source described as “close to the Kremlin” told Rustamova, according to Lozovsky’s translation. “Many understand that this is a mistake, but in the course of doing their duty they come up with explanations in order to somehow come to terms with it.”
“Some officials aren’t associating themselves with what’s happening at all, viewing Putin’s decision as a historical choice over which they have no influence, and the meaning of which no one will understand for a some time to come,” Rustamova wrote.
Another person granted anonymity said Kremlin officials were “carefully enunciating the word clusterfuck” when describing the invasion.
Rustamova wrote that every source she talked to believed Putin wouldn’t follow through on invading Ukraine and was instead looking to gain leverage for concessions, such as declaring Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics.”
Much more at the link.
Finally, we have full clarifying details on the Ukrainian woman who defeated a drone with a jar of pickled vegetables. Apparently they were pickled tomatoes and plums, not cucumbers.
https://t.co/yRM5P88bGr found the woman who knocked down a Russian drone with a jar of pickled tomatoes. She wants to set the record straight: those were NOT picked cucumbers. The gist of her story is in this thread 1/https://t.co/13txRgttLt
— Katya Gorchinskaya (@kgorchinskaya) March 7, 2022
- It was dusk, the sun had not yet risen. Olena was sitting on the balcony of her Kyiv apartment and smoking: “I saw something floating slowly. At first I thought that a crow was injured. And then I heard a buzz.” She had never seen a drone up close before 2/
- She figured that by the time she ran into the room and returned too much time will have passed – the drone might disappear. But she had plenty of preserves right by her feet on the floor! So she grabbed a jar and hurled it as hard as she could at the UFO 3/
- “Probably out of fear. Because I was scared. And what if they start firing at me from there! I feel sorry for those tomatoes… I don’t know where the stories about cucumbers came from.” Apparently those were pickled tomatoes with plums, her favorite recipe. 4/
- Olena is a small household goods store worker. She thinks the drone may have been launched by the Russian marauders who had allegedly been seen in the area. END
Thanks to everyone who emailed the link to me thinking I wasn’t going to find it on my own! O ye of little faith…
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to get cleaned up and crash.
CaseyL
Thank you, Adam, as always: your roundups are invaluable.
Regarding the slow incremental pace of Russian advance: it may seem relentless, but it also depends on an inexhaustible supply of soldiers and equipment, doesn’t it? And it seems Russia has neither. They’re buying soldiers from Syria – how many, though? and are they just dropping them in cold or are the mercs getting any training at all? – and I don’t know where they’re going to get replacement materiel from as fast as they need to.
West of the Rockies
@CaseyL:
Presumably hired murderers have to be paid. Will Russia make good? I wish the identities of these mercenaries could be published so that they face payback.
topclimber
From a Zelenskyy speech yesterday:
“The third round of negotiations in Belarus took place today. I would like to say – the third and final. But we are realists. So we will talk. We will insist on negotiations until we find a way to tell our people: this is how we will come to peace.
“Exactly to peace.
“We must realize that every day of struggle, every day of resistance creates better conditions for us. Strong position to guarantee our future. In peace. After this war.”
Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers are to meet later this week.
Zelenskyy understands diplomacy is a strategic weapon. Many here don’t seem to.
dmsilev
Look, it’s simple. We get Gandalf the Grey (or at least Ian McKellen; same thing, right?), send him to the border, have him shout ‘you shall not fly!’ and slam his staff down at the end of a runway.
Kalakal
Hiring mercenaries
Railing mothballed equipment across 11 time zones.
These are not signs of a successful campaign
Alison Rose ???
Thank you, as always, Adam.
Anyone happen to know where one could find a full translation of Zelensky’s remarks in Christopher Miller’s tweet
ETA: Found!
Dan B
Adam I hope you get well rested and restored. You’re a treasure. You add enormous knowledge and seem to turn brief posts into major posts. If you need to dial them back a bit they’ll still be awesome, at least in my opinion.
Kelly
Kinda worried the steadily increasing mass of Ukrainian’s balls will soon be sufficient to collapse the planet into a black hole
Omnes Omnibus
Every day that Ukraine fights the Russians to a standstill is a win for them. The real danger for them comes when Putin has used up his army and all his equipment. The Ukrainians will win, but at what cost? That’s something that is entirely in Russian hands at this point.
dmsilev
Tom Levenson
@dmsilev: Remind me never to invade Ukraine.
Sebastian
The lady and her husband went downstairs to pick up the shards so dogs wouldn’t injure their paws!
She is a jackal!
The Moar You Know
I believe that Russian money SOMEHOW bought the verdict in Citizens United, making it legal for Russian money to buy our political system.
Omnes Omnibus
@Tom Levenson: Was it on your bucket list?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
My italics. It’s been two weeks.
Martin
Moodys is forecasting that Russia will default on their April 15 debt payments. This is going to spiral quickly for them. The reason the auto bailout happened was that nobody had enough cash to actually bail out entities like GM, other than the federal government. It’s not that ‘investors should bail them out’, it’s that investors couldn’t bail them out. They literally didn’t have the cash. Russia has that problem, plus this huge commitment of force to pay for, plus a currency that’s lost half its value, plus becoming an absolute pariah for investors.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@dmsilev: I hope that’s a non-smoking table
Alison Rose ???
@Tom Levenson: I wonder if in order to call checkmate, you have to throw the other player’s king at a Russian tank
Kalakal
@Omnes Omnibus: That is a nightmare scenario
I suspect/hope that there is a point coming when Putin will start having serious problems on other borders. A lot of the Central Asian Republics are dictatorships propped up by Russian arms or the threat thereof. Ukraine is absorbing and negating Putins ability to respond to uprisings along the rest of his borders.
Kelly
@Tom Levenson:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/world/europe/ukraine-putin-hate.html
dmsilev
@Tom Levenson: Via FTNYT,
dmsilev
@Kelly: Hah. I see we’re thinking alike.
Kelly
@dmsilev: Great Minds
Sebastian
Love the Ukrainian UN Ambassador “No purgatory for war criminals, they go straight to hell!” mic drop
In other news, Glorious War of Restoring Soviet Glory is going as well as restocking CCCP supermarkets.
piratedan
@The Moar You Know: as conspiracy theories go, I find this way too plausible….
as humans we can be both simple and complex, and manioulating people and policy for money and because of fear, shame, greed, lust what have you seems to be an entirely human frailty.
There are times when I feel like we could simplify the equations and make broad stroke brushes with categorizing anyone who is still with the GOP as a fascist, racist, narcissist, sociopath what have you… find a way to where we no longer have to not let obscene wealth or power be a means to an end and take care of all of the shit that needs to be done (you know, like picking up all of the garbage in the oceans, dealing with stopping the destruction of various eco-systems and setting up a plan that means that no one in the world had to live with want. stuff like that).
the sad part is that the people who disagree with those ideals happen to have a good amount of the power and money to give the rest of us the finger.
Dan B
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Me three!
Kalakal
@Martin: Probably safe to say they’re not going to make up the shortfall via arms sales
Sebastian
Russians trying to drive along obscure roads to, get this, smuggle fuel into the combat zone. Didn’t work. (50 miles east of Kyiv)
counterfactual
Is there any reliable information about what is going on in Belarus? The Belarus opposition has been tweeting about soldiers refusing to go into Ukraine and officers resigning. I haven’t seen anything about Belarus forces being seen in Ukraine. But, fog of war and all that.
Chris
That’s awesome. Reminds me of the Kurds and the way they made a point to advertise their female combatants.
Dan B
@Martin: I believe the ruble (rouble?) has lost 95%, or more, of its value. The only money in Russia seems to be from oil and gas sales. If Biden can get Venezuela and the Saudis to up production we could see the end of Russian hostilities.
Chris
@CaseyL:
This, on the other hand, reminds me of what Qaddafi was doing in his last days.
Sebastian
@Martin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUNVtVQjKMY
Spontaneous strike in Nizhnekamsk over unpaid wages. March 6th, 2022.
Jinchi
The real problem is that it was a clear and openly stated concern at the time. The SC simply shrugged it off, pretending that Congress would certainly close any loopholes, rather than taking advantage of a streamlined and well hidden funding stream.
Rightwingers believe money is protected speech and wish the rest of us would just shut up about it already.
dmsilev
News of the weird: Poutine or Putin? People are conflating fries and gravy with the Russian president.
Maybe a rebranding is called for. Freedom Fries is available…
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Might be an issue with paying for the Mercs but as Josh Marshall pointed out the Russians seem to be well on their way to a NK style command economy.
Martin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Remember, the Soviets took 1.1 million casualties just in the Battle of Stalingrad. Throwing meat into the fire is not a strategy that Russia struggles with.
But there’s a big difference between throwing bodies at an offensive action and a defensive one. You ask me to dig in and defend my home and community? No problem. I can probably be fairly effective, even, given that my life is on the line. You want me to go help invade some country, even one that I think is deserving of invasion? No, I think I’ll sit that out.
Tom Levenson
@Omnes Omnibus: only after I conquered Narnia.
dmsilev
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: As Machiavelli pointed out, mercenaries are not the most reliable of soldiers, particularly if they think there’s some chance they might not get paid.
Dangerman
@dmsilev: Checkpoint Chess? Watch out for the En Passant while fighting Putin (the Pissant).
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Martin
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Honestly, they may not have other options.
Creditors are already trying to repo Aeroflot jets.
Omnes Omnibus
@Tom Levenson: May Aslan be with you and shit.
Kalakal
@Martin: I’m trying to of a historical example where throwing in troops into an attack that weren’t tasked for the mission and from well outside the operational area worked. There’s loads of defensive ones, the Marne, Stalingrad, Verdun etc. but I can’t think of any attacks. It’s normal practice to have reserves for an operation and commit them as appropriate but to be suddenly hiring mercenaries from a 1,000 miles away smacks of desperation
sanjeevs
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I really struggle to imagine Russia going to an NK style economy.
That would require some level of planning, concern for the wellbeing of citizens etc.
Imagine if the USA under the GOP was in Russia’s current position. Would they go NK style or would they triple down on the grievance politics, blame lazy Americans for being unemployed wasters etc.
Martin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: You know what else stands out? That the FSB is communicating that over a regular unencrypted phone line.
Jinchi
They’d do what they’re good at. It’ll be grievance politics and finger pointing to their last breath.
Mallard Filmore
Here is a YouTube video on the impact of this war in relation to Russia’s commercial airplanes. It involves airplane leasing companies and their insurers.
Title” “Is Russia about to NATIONALIZE Foreign Aircraft?! | Mentour NOW!”
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lz4gCE4ccRM
Cacti
I heartily support the Russian General Staff hanging out near the front lines and getting their brains perforated.
karen marie
Just popping in to say how much I appreciate these Ukraine updates. I’m seeing some of it on my own on the twitter but some of it I hadn’t seen. Thank you, Adam Silverman!
Roger Moore
@Kalakal:
That’s true, but they aren’t signs of complete failure, either. The Russians have clearly taken far worse losses than they expected, and their campaign has been far slower than expected. But they’re still advancing, the Ukrainians are also taking losses, and the Russians’ ability to mobilize more troops and equipment means they can make good some of their losses. The war is far from over, and either side could still win.
What is undoubtedly true, though, is that the Russians have paid a far steeper price than they expected. The level of resistance also suggests that they aren’t going to be able to hold Ukraine with any reasonable level of force. What that means in terms of winning and losing is not clear, though; it probably depends on what the Russians are willing to accept as a victory. Ukraine has put up an impressive fight, but their best chance of an outright victory is for the Russians to overextend themselves. If the Russians consolidate the gains that are closely connected to existing Russian territory and switch to the defensive in those areas, the Ukrainians don’t have much chance of pushing them back out.
Redshift
@counterfactual: Yeah, here’s the thread with the supposed document (and not posted by the Belarusian opposition.) I would love to know if it’s at all reliable.
Prometheus Shrugged
@Chris: I was saying to my wife a few minutes ago that NATO forces will eventually find Putin holed up in a bunker with a creepy photographic shrine to Lauren Boebert, just like Qaddafi and Condoleeza Rice.
Roger Moore
@Kalakal:
The real nightmare scenario for Russia would be an uprising in Belarus that blocked their ability to support forces in northern Ukraine. I doubt they will let that happen, but they might wind up needing a substantial commitment of forces in Belarus just to keep their logistics possible.
Adam L Silverman
@Dan B: To quote Tolkien from the author’s introduction to The Lord of the Rings, “the story grew in the telling”. Pretty much what happens with each of these update posts.
Omnes Omnibus
@Prometheus Shrugged: That’s some fucked up shit.
Martin
@sanjeevs: Not to mention that the GDP of North Korea is roughly that of the city I live in that nobody has ever heard of. Command economies are efficient because they set the the internal price of almost everything (including labor) to zero. Means that anything you need to import becomes prohibitively expensive.
phdesmond
what is the white V i saw painted on several armored vehicles and jeeps on TV from Ukraine tonight?
Prometheus Shrugged
@Omnes Omnibus: Only because it’s true!
Another Scott
I figure Stein’s Law will be active for the Russian offensive fairly soon, but too many will still suffer before getting there.
:-(
In other news, ICYMI …
Good, good. And long overdue.
Cheers,
Scott.
Kalakal
@Roger Moore: Agreed, that was what I referring to in the 2nd paragraph though on a much wider scale than Belarus
The nightmare scenario I was referring was a response to Omnes comment about Russian actions if their attack totally fails. There’s a terrifying prospect of a total scorched earth policy, “If I can’t have it, no one can”
FlyingToaster
@Roger Moore: And right now the bulk of the Russian military is locked down where they are, because if they pull troops out of Kazakhstan, its government might fall. If they pull troops out of Belarus, its government might fall. If they pull troops out of Sakhalin, the Japanese will return. Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
Another Scott
@phdesmond: “Z” supposedly is from West (Zapad). “V” supposedly is from East (Vostok).
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
Sebastian
天皇陛下万歳!
Japan has entered the stage.
Another Scott
@Kalakal: I’m having trouble accepting that as inevitable. I think part of the reason why the offensive is going badly is that too many of the troops aren’t willing to do as they’re told, they’re not willing to do what it takes to achieve their objectives, they’re willing to abandon their equipment intact, etc. Why would they then suddenly decide to flatten the country and the inhabitants?? It doesn’t make sense.
Of course, things are much more complicated than that, with many competing factors, but I think there is a big risk that if VVP pushes harder then Russian conscripts and military leadership will feel they have to act to stop him.
We’ll see. :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
prostratedragon
From the article about squeamish oligarchs:
Isn’t Gerasimov the dude that just got “eliminated” today? //gumcrack
Belafon
I am curious what you think of this in relation to the thread above about Russian progress:
Omnes Omnibus
@Another Scott: First, no one is saying it is inevitable. Second, if it does happen, it won’t require the participation of all Russian troops. Just enough with the right tools.
sanjeevs
@prostratedragon: Different Gerasimov
Roger Moore
@phdesmond:
I think the letters are for recognition purposes. The Russians and Ukrainians have much the same military equipment, so there’s even more risk than usual of friendly fire. To avoid this, they paint big distinctive symbols on their equipment so they don’t get shot at by their compatriots. It seems like a kind of odd idea, but millennia of experience says you’re around your friends more than your enemies, so letting your friends know you’re on their side is more valuable than trying to fool the enemy.
PJ
@prostratedragon: No, the guy who was shot today was a different Gerasimov, a Major General, I think.
Kalakal
@Another Scott: I don’t think it’s inevitable, hopefully far from it. I can envision Putin giving the orders, whether they’d be carried out is a very different thing.
It really doesn’t make any sense
Adam L Silverman
@prostratedragon: Different Gerasimov.
Mallard Filmore
@Sebastian: “Will surrender for food”
dm
I expect Russia will be a wholly-owned subsidiary of China before the decade closes. Xi won’t have to invade, all he’ll have to do is bail them out in exchange for mineral and timber rights in Siberia.
Sebastian
@Roger Moore:
You can bet all your money that this is exactly what will happen next. Belarus is a relatively small country (pop 9m) and already wobbly. Very cheap to buy folks there.
France moved troops into Romania, to the Moldovan border.
Two B-52, GORGON11 and GORGON12, circling over Romania.
Sebastian
Gvg
I think it is potentially important that Putins satellite countries are being asked for troops and they aren’t sending them because they need the troops to keep their own under control. At some point the empire is going to be over extended and might crash suddenly, a lot like the USSR falling apart. Would be ironic if Putins obsession with the tragedy of the USSR falling caused round 2.
Adam L Silverman
@Belafon: I think they’re both accurate. Russia has taken Mariupol, Kherson, and a few other towns and cities, but on land they’re stalled out north of Kyiv. The longer the ground defense can hold in Kharkiv and the other northern suburbs and bedroom communities of Kyiv, the better. Those defense have to hold!
But because the ground offensive in the center of Ukraine is stalled and the Ukrainians are holding off the Russians there, the Russians have switched to their default operational mode that we saw in Chechnya, eastern Georgia, and Syria: use air strikes and artillery to just pound the daylights out of everyone and everything.
What seems like a disconnect are just pictures of three different parts of the war.
grumbles
Holy crap, the story about confirming the Gerasimov kill reads like something out of a James Bamford book. War in the Twitter age is something else.
YY_Sima Qian
I think this NYT article does a good job layout the conundrum that the Chinese leadership faces w/ the Ukraine crisis:
‘No Wavering’: After Turning to Putin, Xi Faces Hard Wartime Choices for China
Xi has put down personal stake in the relationship w/ Russia over the last 5 years, both Sino-Russian coordination in general, as well as the Xi-Putin personal bond. Sealing the elevated relationship (at least rhetorically) during Putin’s visit on the eve of the Winter Olympics, in such high profile fashion, has now blown up in Xi’s face. Xi cannot publicly rebuke Putin or Russia for the invasion of Ukraine w/o losing face, & have other elements of the CCP regime question his foreign policy wisdom. (Xi, after all, trying to ensure a 3rd term on the smoothest path possible.)Furthermore, as long as the great power competition between China & the US remain the defining feature of the two countries foreign (& even domestic policies) for the foreseeable future, China will continue to align w/ Russia (whoever runs the country) for mutual support, & have Russia serve as distraction to divert US attention & resources (but probably not to the point of Putin’s reckless/delusional Ukrainian adventure). On the other hand, Putin’s reckless invasion of Ukraine has the potential to overturn the entire land half of China’s Belt & Road Initiative, which Xi has also invested a great deal of personal stake, building on the early efforts of prior leaders, & for which there is consensus support in the CCP regime. Getting tied to Putin’s aggression also worsens China’s relations w/ the US & Europe, & China cannot afford a total rupture of relations w/ either (& the reverse is equally true). There is little support for Russia position in the Global South, & China cannot afford to take positions that are far out of line w/ the prevailing opinion in the Global South, since China traditionally rely upon their support in the UN & other international organizations. (Although I do not believe most countries/peoples in the Global South have any particularly investment in the Ukraine crisis, either emotionally or in terms of interest. Something to keep in mind for those of you living in the North American/European information environment. Your perceptions do not necessarily represent the perceptions of others.)
The articles does a good job summarizing China’s historically cordial relations w/ Ukraine, the motivations for alignment w/ Russia, the complex interplay in the China-US-Russia triangle that has helped consolidate the Sino-Russian alignment, the intra-regime dynamics that determine how China publicly responds to the Ukraine crisis, & the subtle rhetorical shift in Beijing’s public communication to the crisis. I have seen one China expert in the US quip that the current state of affair is the inevitable result of 4 years of Trump’s “F*CK YOU CHYNA & let Putin be Putin”, plus a year of Biden’s “Trump Lite” policy toward China (less heated rhetoric, but still primarily focused on competition/confrontation, bi-lateral relations not yet found bottom). “Cooperate where we can, compete where we should, confront where we must” is a great slogan, but tricky to strike the right balance in operation, especially when the 2 parties have very different priorities & very different ideas about where to confront/compete/cooperate. It is not something that be dictated unilaterally by either great power, though both certainly try. Too heavy a focus on competition & confrontation, then one cannot expect ready cooperation on your priority, when it may not be the same priority for the other side.
I think we can expect China to continue to hew to age old bland formulations that do not offend either side in its public pronouncements, but w/ subtle shifts that may hint at its shifting calculus. It may decide to play a more active role in making peace, when there is peace to be made. Peace is only possible when both sides have the desire. If Putin still suffers from the delusion that he can impose a new reality in Ukraine through force of arms, then he has no incentive to settle for less. If the Ukrainians believe they can bleed the Russian Army dry, & the international sanctions will wreck the Russian economy, ultimately forcing Russia to retreat, why would they sign an peace settlement that might require them as the aggrieved party to formally cede Crimea to Russia, or settle for anything less than full control over Donbass?
My greater fear is that events ultimately leads to a new Cold War, w/ China/Russia/Iran on one side & US/EU/Japan on the other, w/ the rest of the world stuck in between. In theory, the US/EU/Japan block should be favored over the China/Russia/Iran block, but there are immense domestic fissures & challenges in each of these entities that a “unifying force” of a new Cold War will not paper over. There are cynical & bad faith actors (fortunately, not the people currently in charge of the US or the EU) that are trying to leverage the Ukrainian crisis to ferment a new Cold War, a proper one that can see off China as a challenger to US hegemony. Never mind that the pain of economic decoupling will be shouldered primarily by the low/middle income classes, or that reactionary forces will leverage the inevitable hysteria of a new Cold War to promote authoritarian & kleptocratic policies. Just like the last one, really.
Adam L Silverman
@Gvg: Hopefully someone has a better plan fir dealing with that possibility this time around.
phdesmond
@Roger Moore:
oh, so the V might represent the initial U of Ukraine. but straight lines are easier to paint than curves.
Sebastian
Something’s up. This feels as if the Russians are being stretched on purpose.
I am calling it: counter-offensive within a week.
prostratedragon
@Adam L Silverman: So the old guy is living? Thought he had died a while ago.
guachi
The US may spend an exorbitant amount on the military but at least it largely is functional and effective.
phdesmond
@Another Scott:
that sounds like a folk etymology.
Mallard Filmore
@Martin: It is worse than you think. I went down a Twitter rabbit hole and picked this out:
LeftCoastYankee
So Ukrainian drones are taking out Russian Generals, and Russian drones are being taken out by Nana Olena’s Pickled Tomatoes….
If “sanity” ever returns, Olena should get a pitching tryout with the Portland Pickles baseball team.
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
Yeah, I am not sure if I am more worried about the nukes or the bio & chem nastiness. South American cartels must be licking their chops.
And MBS. I still think we should just kill him and ask for a mulligan in front of the UN.
Sebastian
@Mallard Filmore:
Fucking unreal.
YY_Sima Qian
@topclimber: Zelenskyy has shown greater maturity than most leaders of greater powers, despite or because of far worse circumstances.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: I can not imagine Xi is thrilled that Russia named Taiwan in a formal government statement today.
Adam L Silverman
@prostratedragon: Nope, he was sitting next to Shoygu at the very long table when Putin announced he was raising the nuclear alert status to high.
Adam L Silverman
@LeftCoastYankee: The only thing that can stop a bad guy with a drone is a good granny with a jar of pickled tomatoes and plums!
PJ
@Adam L Silverman: The lack of a Marshall Plan (and insistence on shock treatment) for the former Eastern Bloc and the Soviet Union was a failure for the West, an opportunity for massive theft and corruption in the former Eastern Bloc countries, and a tragedy for the former Soviet Republics (outside of the Baltics). But nobody (in the US government, at least) seriously proposed it, it was all “We’re No. 1! We’re No. 1!”
prostratedragon
@Adam L Silverman: Ah. The one who was more “Hoo boy!” than “WTELF?”
Adam L Silverman
@Sebastian: Like living through the fall of Rome, but with wifi!
counterfactual
@prostratedragon: The chief of staff’s nephew was the general killed today
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Is this part of the Russian statement putting Taiwan on an “unfriendly list”, because Taiwan has joined in the sanctions against Russia? If Kremlin used “Taiwan region”, then I don’t think Xi or anyone in China really minds.
Adam L Silverman
@PJ: If I recall, there was a heavy reliance on Freedman’s “Chicago Boys” to advise on how to proceed. And, as was the case with Argentina and Peru and Iraq much later, things proceeded badly because they had one solution regardless of the problem.
PJ
@phdesmond: if “Z” is for “zapad” (west), then “V” is probably for “vostok” (east), as in which direction these vehicles are supposed to be moved.
prostratedragon
Campari … when you care enough to send the very best …
PJ
@Adam L Silverman:
Yep.
Adam L Silverman
@prostratedragon: Both of them looked exceedingly uncomfortable.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: It was. I don’t know what the original Russian says, but all the English translations are just Taiwan, no region as modifier.
phdesmond
@PJ:
if, if. it’s a folk etymology.
Kelly
@Mallard Filmore: Wait the Russian secure military communications system was designed with a dependence on a viable cell phone network in a war zone?
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: It will depend on whether the list is of “unfriendly nations” or “unfriendly entities” or “unfriendly regions”. No matter how detached from reality Putin might be, I cannot imagine he would go there, when China represents his only potential economic life line. It’s not like he can threaten Beijing w/ “support me or I will recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country.”
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Everything else on the list was a state.
Martin
@FlyingToaster: Japan has just restated that the Kuril Islands are their inherent territory, so that effort is already inching forward.
Mallard Filmore
@Martin:
I sorta remember that Japan made noises about wanting those islands back a few decades ago. Is this a stronger statement?
RaflW
@Sebastian: [via the National Interest, whom I generally do not link to, from early February of this year:] Rahm Emanuel, U.S. ambassador to Japan, said in a video address… that Washington recognizes Japan’s sovereignty over the Northern Territories [aka the southern Kurils], adding that “Russia’s disregard for the sovereignty of others is also not new, nor is it limited to the Northern Territories.” Emanuel reaffirmed U.S. support for the efforts of “the Japanese and Russian governments in trying to achieve a long overdue peace treaty.” Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said in January that any peace treaty between Russia and Japan must acknowledge the results of World War II, including Russia’s claims to sovereignty over the Kurils.
eta: That disregard for sovereignty comment also seems … prescient … now, huh.
Carlo Graziani
I can’t put my finger on the exact piece of evidence, but I feel we’re at some kind of turning point. I don’t believe that the Russians have anything left in the tank, military experts notwithstanding, and the Ukrainian defenders’ morale and capability is growing. Today I saw a reference in an NYT article to actual Ukrainian artillery responding to Russian artillery, which, if true, means that the arms resupply has passed a critical milestone of heavy weaponry. I think we might actually see an ignominious collapse of the invasion force due to personnel replacement and resupply failures in the next ten days or so. The Russian army general staff clearly did not prepare for this operation, and is being whipped forwards by Putin irrespective of logistic reality.
Sooner or later, Wiley E. Coyote. always notices that he’s run off the edge of a cliff onto an evaporating cloud, and gravity takes over.
guachi
@PJ: The letters Z and V don’t exist in Cyrillic. The sounds do, but the letters are written 3 and B, respectively.
It makes more sense to me that Z and V are used because they are made with straight lines and are easy to write. And because they aren’t Cyrillic they won’t be mistaken for anything else.
prostratedragon
@Adam L Silverman: Quite so. Just a matter of style.
Re: The economic shock therapy: That stuff was hard to follow at the time, and looking back over it is a refresher on how much was happening in the 80s and 90s, but the Chicago Boys were mostly South Americans, in fact mostly Chileans, who had studied at Chicago, often under Friedman. They returned to Chile and Peru where too many got gummed up with the Pinochet era, so that whatever economic accomplishments they might have fostered were kind of moot. The set of policies they advocated became part of what was known as the Washington Consensus, which advocated free markets with maybe a little Keynesianism on weekends for fun.
The Soviet Union went through “shock therapy” or sudden reassignment of co-ordination and capitalization to markets, one of the bigger problems there being how much of the capital was seized and controlled by oligarch types. This problem seems to have been bigger there than in some other former communist countries where similar policies were carried out.
The premise of shock therapy is similar to Friedmanite economics or the Washington Consensus, but its main or at least best-known American proponent in the fracturing USSR was Jeffrey Sachs, who has been attempting pentitence ever since. Sachs was out of Harvard, not Chicago, and was a student of Martin Feldstein, who was Reagan’s economic advisor.
prostratedragon
@Kelly: It’s a beautiful thing, isn’t it?
RaflW
@sanjeevs: I’d seen said that this was the big cheese Gerasimov’s son who was killed.
Villago Delenda Est
@dmsilev:
Too sophisticated an approach for Newt.
Sebastian
@PJ:
The problem was that the fall of the Soviet Union came right after the coke-fueled Wall Street Vulture Capitalism ran out of things to chop up and steal in the States. They all descended on the former Warsaw Pact, where their greed and disregard for laws went completely unchecked. The white-collar criminals of the Reagan era taught the Russian mobsters how to play the game, sucked all the wealth out of the former Soviet Republics.
The Eastern European countries fared only a little better because the EU demanded the implementation of rules, laws, and regulations while they (mostly the Germans) emptied the state coffers and bought up everything, err I mean gave generous development loans.
The best of the Russian acolytes bought up the spooks and came to New York, just in time to feed the FBI all the juicy info they could gobble about the Italian Mob. The wingnuts in FBI, lazy as they were, took the info, it made them look like heroes, and they eliminated the Italian mob for the Russians. Nifty, eh? Even got some nice apartments and other perks out of it probably. Promotions and mayor titles and shit.
9/11 happens and now everyone’s looking at Islam and the Rooskies are giving every Fed as much as he/she can gobble while greasing palms err golfing. This is where Putin and his Reagan acolytes start jamming their talons right into the power structure of the US. If they are corrupt, why shouldn’t they be our type of corrupt?
The rest you know yourself.
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
This should be a rotating tag. Seriously.
Also, I’ll steal it.
NotMax
Seriously, whence the aversion to using below the fold for lengthy posts??
Bruce K in ATH-GR
I don’t know what this signifies, but apparently, there’s a rather active computer flight simulator community with a lot of former East Bloc participation – some of the best modern combat flight sims come from that region, stuff like the Sturmovik games, Lock-On Modern Air Combat, and the like. This extends to peripheral manufacturing as well; two of the best premium joystick manufacturers are from the former East Bloc.
Both of them have felt the pinch somewhat – VKB, founded in Russia, has taken pains to make it clear that they’ve moved their operations to China, so they continue to operate and are not impacted by sanctions. Their major competitor, Virpil (for “Virtual Pilot”), happens to have been founded by Belarusian flight-sim enthusiasts, though they’ve got a branch in Lithuania that handles their European Union business (and presumably a lot of wider-world stuff).
Virpil actually came out with a pro-Ukraine statement, and swapped out their corporate logo (normally a red star with a black airplane silhouette) for a variant with a blue star and a yellow dove. For a company operating under the Lukashenko regime, that probably takes some nerve. (They also released a statement that because their Belarusian operations are in a free economic zone, Lukashenko doesn’t get a cut of any money spent buying their peripherals. I suspect they’ve also moved as much of their operation to Lithuania as they can.)
Sebastian
@Bruce K in ATH-GR:
World of Warships is based in Belarus, too.
Sloane Ranger
In an unprecedented move, the Speaker of the House of Commons has agreed to allow President Zelinsky to address the House via video link. I think it’s happening later today.
In other news the BBC reports that there is activity at North Korea’s nuclear testing facility for the first time in 4 years. It makes sense. Adam was right when he said in a previous post that nuclear nonproliferation, which was slowly dying anyway, is now officially dead. Seeing how fear of Putin using his nukes has affected the NATO/EU/US/UK response means that everyone facing a current or prospective threat from a neighbouring country is going to want them as a deterrent.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: I have now read through the Chinese version of the Russian statement. The Russian list is of unfriendly “countries & regions”, & it specifically states “Taiwan (China)”, or “Тайвань (Китай)” in Russian.
rikyrah
Appreciate these posts, Silverman.??
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Yes, this all seems like the kind of stuff some old drunk does. Screams it’s someone else’s mess.
And how does this work, Russia is a Kleptocracy. Government officials real pay is bribes, if no one has any money are they going to be bribed in sacks of potatoes?
Maybe Russia becomes a crypto state.
Geminid
@Sloane Ranger: The lead Iranian negotiator at the JCPOA talks has flown home from Vienna to consult with his government. The head of the EU delegation says the talks are, as a practical matter, finished and now a political decision must be made. So, we should find out soon how this particular effort at non-proliferation ends.
JR
@Dan B: Ruble dropped from 70 per USD to about 140 right now. It’s been volatile but so far that’s the largest drop of the last 20 years or so. It’s an enormous collapse.
debbie
@YY_Sima Qian:
What a world we’ve become when comedians are the adults in the room.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Apparently even the Belorussians have their limits.
I guess the officers signed up to oppress their fellow Belorussians, not foreigners.
debbie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Deja vu all over again again. Vietnam.
The Thin Black Duke
@debbie: “History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.”
debbie
@The Thin Black Duke:
Yes, sickeningly so.
Woodrow/asim
I know this is a dead thread (I’ve been drained well before Adam posts these for the last week or so due to non-war related situations), BUT — it’s funny you mention this, because I’m musing on a piece about how we keep overlooking 9/11’s impact on our culture, today.
Specifically, how it enabled Islamophobia in ways that I think re-invigorated White Supremacy — and allowed that to fully infect the Conservative Movement, setting the stage for that movement to shed its last few moderates and to start reverting to Jim Crow ideas (as opposed to doing the “how can we get away with saying the N-word” business we all know from the Southern strategy era).
Anyway — not fully off-topic due to Putin’s perverse influence, but not really fully baked for a post, yet.
Betty Cracker
@YY_Sima Qian: Really appreciate your perspective in these threads! Thank you.
BC in Illinois
E.
I wish there was a recipe for the pickled plums and tomatoes.
WaterGirl
@Sebastian:
I don’t understand what you are trying to convey here.
Russians are being stretched on purpose – by which side?
Also, can you say more about counter-offensive within a week?
Marcus
@Sebastian: In all seriousness how does this true story end
WaterGirl
@Martin: Are you suggesting that Japan looked at what Russian is doing and thought, “hey this might be a great time to do something similar”?
I know almost nothing about that region, so there are plenty of ways for me to have interpreted what you said incorrectly.
Anyway
@Woodrow/asim:
Interesting. 9/11 and islamaphobia definitely reinvigorated ‘wingers in the US.
Sebastian
@Marcus:
I wish I knew but one of the lessons is that if we don’t fight evil today we will have to fight it a thousand times stronger in the future.
David Fud
@debbie: They do better at news in our country, so it isn’t all that surprising in the end.
Sebastian
@WaterGirl:
I don’t think Martin suggested that nor does Japan strike me as wanting to expand territory in the way Russia does.
Russia annexed a number of territories from other countries over the past 70 years, many of them with historic meaning.
Japan and the USSR (and then Russia) have been quarreling over the Kuril Islands ever since WW2.
Then there is Crimea from Ukraine, Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia, Karelia from Finland, Kaliningrad/Königsberg from Germany/Poland (depends on how you look at it), parts of Lapland from Finnland, parts of Estonia, and the list goes on.
They have been at this forever, little by little, and every neighbor is pissed at them.
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
First of all, your insights are second to none, Carlo. I am very glad you chose to add your voice to these conversations, they have helped me gain more and sharper insight.
I missed this comment somehow last night and not sure if this thread is dead but you are touching on a subject I have been tracking for a while: when will the Ukrainians counter-strike?
There seems to be a hardcore strategy of “shoot when you see the white in their eyes” at play. I agree, the Russians are stretched to the breaking point, their advances in the North have ground to a halt, and their advances in the South are limited to villages and small towns.
We have seen the influx of fighters and light and medium infantry weapons, capturing of enemy hardware, but no deployments of Ukraine’s reserves. Their tank brigades are waiting and as you have observed, Ukrainians are countering artillery and I am noticing that the Bayraktars are taking out Russian SAM.
On the other hand, armored trains from Crimea have rolled into Mariupol, so the Russian rail supply lines are open in the South although I am tempted to see this as a sign of weakness. If Russians have to use trains to supply something 40 miles away, does it mean they don’t have trucks left?
My completely uninformed prediction is a counteroffensive within the week. This has the feeling of breaking down fast and hard.