Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

Bark louder, little dog.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

The words do not have to be perfect.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

Infrastructure week. at last.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

I was promised a recession.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

This blog will pay for itself.

You can’t love your country only when you win.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the GOP

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 Coronavirus / COVID-19 Coronavirus Update: Monday / Tuesday, March

COVID-19 Coronavirus Update: Monday / Tuesday, March

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… Even as vaccination rates rose in parts of the world, the daily average of covid deaths stood at 9,000 during the past 28 days, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

About 4 percent of all covid deaths worldwide were recorded in the past month.

“The idea we would get to 6 million is really inconceivable when I think back to two years ago,” said Mitchell Warren, executive director of AVAC, an HIV prevention organization that also advocates for global coronavirus vaccine equity. “Everything that has happened in the last 12 months, though, is a marker of our inability of translating the remarkable scientific progress, the remarkable product development into impact.”…

No matter where it happens on the map, the more the virus spreads, the more likely new variants are to emerge, said Aditi Nerurkar, a Harvard Medical School physician and lecturer on global health. The omicron variant was first detected in southern Africa late last year and quickly spread to other continents, leading to a resurgent wave of the pandemic.

Nerurkar said the new global death total showed that the United States cannot declare victory against the pandemic while the virus continues to spread across an under-vaccinated globe.

Coronavirus indicators already were relatively high in Eastern Europe before Russia invaded Ukraine. Nerurkar said global conflicts historically have accelerated the spread of infectious diseases. Researchers say the 1918-1919 flu pandemic was worsened by global movements during World War I…

… The report plots a course to what its authors call the “next normal” — living with the SARS-CoV-2 virus as a continuing threat that needs to be managed. Doing so will require improvements on a number of fronts, from better surveillance for Covid and other pathogens to keeping tabs on how taxed hospitals are; and from efforts to address the air quality in buildings to continued investment in antiviral drugs and better vaccines. The authors also call for offering people sick with respiratory symptoms easy access to testing and, if they are positive for Covid or influenza, a quick prescription for the relevant antiviral drug.

The 136-page report was written by nearly two dozen experts, a number of whom have advised the Biden administration on its Covid-19 policies. Thirty other experts contributed to the report, entitled “Getting to and Sustaining the Next Normal: A Roadmap to Living with Covid.”…

The authors sketch out three scenarios the country may face in the near future with Covid-19 — one optimistic, one pessimistic, and the third midway between the two. Which will come to pass will depend on how well immunity to the SARS-2 virus — immunity acquired through vaccination or infection — holds up and whether mutations to the virus make it more infectious and/or more lethal.

In the optimistic scenario, where immunity holds up and the virus doesn’t evolve to trigger more severe disease, it’s possible that annual Covid deaths could be kept to between 15,000 and 30,000, the experts predict. At the other end of the scale, if a more virulent variant emerges and immunity wanes — leading to a substantially higher attack rate in a given year — the death toll could be nearly 10 times that of the optimistic scenario, they warn. In the intermediate scenario, they estimate that between 30,000 and 100,000 people could die from Covid annually.

The group suggests the country should aim to keep the annual death toll from respiratory infections like Covid, flu, and respiratory syncytial virus to about 60,000 a year — roughly the number of deaths that influenza causes in a bad flu season…

… While during the omicron surge experts and public health officials cautioned that the highly contagious variant would infect many people, they don’t think ending up with the virus is inevitable, at least in the near future. But, they say, it’s going to require a fine balance as we transition into the endemic stage of COVID-19.

“From my perspective, no, it’s not inevitable” over the next year or two, said UCSF Chair of Medicine Dr. Bob Wachter, who also hasn’t gotten COVID yet. He said when case rates are low, as they are now in the Bay Area, the roughly 60% of the population that has not had COVID is unlikely to get it, “since they won’t be exposed very much.”

Those who are vaccinated and boosted, he added, “will remain relatively protected even if they do get exposed.”

Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UCSF, agreed, adding that as long as we’re in the transition period into the endemic stage of the virus, there’s no clear answer for whether you’ll inevitably get COVID in the long run — but it doesn’t have to be now.

“Are we all going to get it? Yes, biologically, that might happen,” he said. “Are we at a time to embrace that philosophy? No, because the virus is still causing a lot of suffering. Almost 2,000 deaths per day is no walk in the park.”…

Experts also said there are benefits to avoiding infection for now, even if it’s possible you contract the coronavirus later: The longer the pandemic goes on, the more we understand about the virus, they said, which means that treatments are likely to be better and more accessible.

“Delaying infections is actually an undervalued or underappreciated point,” Karan said. “Who knows what we’ll have six months or a year from now, right? We’ll have even more things that we can offer patients.”

While there are no guarantees in a pandemic, experts said, the most important thing is for people to start finding ways to return to life while staying flexible as the virus continues to fluctuate.

“Even for the highest risk population, there’s a balance,” Chin-Hong said. “It’s about engaging with life and not being lonely, but also being responsible at all levels.”

======

… China’s National Health Commission said Monday that it had detected 526 domestic infection cases, 214 of which were symptomatic, on the prior day, marking the single highest daily tally by either measure since the initial pandemic outbreak in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in early 2020.

Most of those who tested positive on Sunday were in the eastern port cities of Qingdao and Shanghai, with others detected in the southern province of Guangdong and the northeastern province of Jilin.

For now, China is sticking to what it calls a “dynamic clearing” policy that requires local authorities to bring any outbreak under control as quickly as possible by identifying the source of the outbreak and isolating all infected patients and their close contacts.

At the same time, Chinese health experts have begun exploring options to pivot away from the current pandemic-response model, such as tinkering with its current combination—effective but laborious and costly—of digital surveillance, tight border controls, mass testing and targeted lockdowns to prevent and suppress larger outbreaks.

The flareup in Qingdao centers on middle-school students and teachers in Laixi county, accounting for most of Monday’s 163 newly identified cases in the city. All of them were found to have been infected with the highly virulent Omicron strain and were identified through mass testing of more than 3,000 people classified as close contacts of several infected students, according to data provided by local health authorities.

The roughly 60 new cases in northeastern Jilin were detected during a round of citywide mass testing, according to local media reports.

In Shanghai, almost all of the 48 cases identified there were travelers from Hong Kong who were undergoing a 14-day hotel quarantine…

As of Sunday, Chinese health authorities said they had officially recorded 102,722 symptomatic Covid-19 cases in mainland China, resulting in 4,636 deaths, since the beginning of the pandemic.

======

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Reader Interactions

55Comments

  1. 1.

    NeenerNeener

    Monroe County, NY:

    43 new cases on 3/6.

    Vaccination percentage is 71.5%

    Deaths now at 1800, up 16 from last week. The number of weekly deaths doesn’t seem to be improving, even though the number of cases is going down.

    Hospitalizations:

    59 cases hospitalized; 66% are unvaxed
    No cases in the ICU

  2. 2.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On 3/7 Mainland China reported 175 new domestic confirmed (6 previously asymptomatic), 330 new domestic asymptomatic cases.

    Guangdong Province reported 45 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) & 73 new domestic asymptomatic cases. As the province does not breakdown recoveries between domestic & imported cases, I cannot track the count of active cases in parts of the province.

    • Dongguan reported 31 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 73 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at the epicenter Dalang Township, all are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. 1 factory compound at Dalang Township is currently at High Risk. 1 zone, 1 residential compound & 1 factory compound at Dalang Township are currently at Medium Risk, as is 1 zone at Humen Township.
    • Shenzhen reported 13 new domestic confirmed cases, 7 are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine & 6 are found from mass screening in areas under movement restrictions. 6 sites remain at Medium Risk.
    • Huizhou reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (1 previously asymptomatic).

    Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic, at Chongzuo, mild) & 3 new domestic asymptomatic (2 at Fangchenggang & 1 at Baise) cases. The new domestic positive cases at Fangchenggang are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine, & the new domestic positive case at Baise is found via mass screening of residents in areas under movement restrictions. 6 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 133 active domestic confirmed (80 at Baise, 51 at Fangchenggang & 1 each at Chongzuo & Nanning) & 33 active domestic asymptomatic cases (25 at Fangchenggang & 10 at Baise) in the province. 2 zones at Fangchenggang are currently at Medium Risk.

    Huaihua in Hunan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city.

    Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases. 34 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 197 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Baotou did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There are currently 20 active domestic confirmed cases in the city (all presumed Delta). 1 Medium Risk sub-districts has been re-designated to Low Risk. 4 sub-districts remain at Medium Risk.
    • Hohhot reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases, both traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. 32 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 163 active domestic confirmed cases (all presumed Delta) in the city. 1 High Risk village has been re-designated to Low Risk. 1 zone, 3 communities & 2 villages remain at High Risk. 8 Medium Risk sites have been re-designated to Low Risk. 42 sites remain at Medium Risk.
    • The rest of the province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 14 active domestic confirmed (10 at Manzhouli in Hulun Buir, 3 at Erdos & 1 at Bayan Nur) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Bayan Nur) cases remaining.  3 communities at Manzhouli in Hulun Buir are currently at Medium Risk.

    Tianjin Municipality reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases (all positive), all traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 26 active domestic confirmed cases (19 mild & 7 moderate) in the city. 1 massage parlor is currently at High Risk. 1 construction site has been elevated to Medium Risk.

    Shandong Province reported 31 new domestic confirmed (30 mild & 1 moderate) & 144 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 176 active domestic confirmed cases & 262 active asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Qingdao reported 29 new domestic confirmed (28 mild & 1 moderate) & 129 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 174 active domestic confirmed & 246 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 residential compound has been elevated to High Risk. 1 residential compound & 1 middle school are currently at High Risk. 2 villages, 1 middle school & 1 residential compound are currently at Medium Risk.
    • Weihai reported 2 new domestic confirmed (both mild) & 14 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 15 of the new domestic positive cases are part of a clusters of participants at training sessions held at an office building on 2/28 & 3/2, as well as their close contacts, & 1 is a person returning from Qingdao. 1 office building has been elevated to High Risk. 2 office buildings & a residential compound have been elevated to Medium Risk.
    • Yantai reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, a person returning from elsewhere, has been under centralized quarantine since 3/4. There currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.

    Shanxi Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 22 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province, all part of the transmission chain spreading from Hohhot in Inner Mongolia.

    • Jinzhong did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 15 active domestic confirmed cases in the city.
    • Yuncheng reported 1 new domestic confirmed (mild) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both found via screening of persons returning from Xi’an in Shaanxi.
    • The rest of the province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There there currently are 6 active domestic confirmed (5 at Taiyuan & 1 at Xizhou) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Jincheng) cases remaining.

    Hebei Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 39 active domestic confirmed & 3 active asymptomatic case in the province.

    • Xingtai reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases (both mild), both traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine since 3/3. There currently are 22 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 1 village is currently at Medium Risk.
    • Shijiazhuang reported 2 new domestic confirmed case (both mild), a traced close contact already under centralized quarantine since 2/22. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
    • Baoding did not reported any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 5 active domestic confirmed cases in the city, part of the transmission chain spreading from Jilin City in Jilin.
    • Handan did not reported any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases in the city, part of of the transmission chain spreading from Xingtai.

    Liaoning Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed (all mild) & 5 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Shenyang, all traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine since 3/6. 5 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 145 active domestic confirmed (140 at Huludao & 3 at Shenyang) & 8 active domestic (7 at Shenyang & 1 at Dandong) cases in the province. 1 village at Suizhong County is currently at High Risk.

    Heilongjiang Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 22 active domestic confirmed& 43 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • At Suifenhe in Mudanjiang here currently are 10 active domestic confirmed & 14 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 2 residential compounds, 9 residential buildings & 1 business are currently Medium Risk.
    • At Harbin there currently are 7 active domestic confirmed & 10 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all part of the transmission chain spreading from Suifenhe.
    • At Heihe there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 13 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 residential building is currently at Medium Risk.
    • In the rest of the province 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed (all at Jidong County in Jixi) & 6 active domestic asymptomatic (4 at Jixi & 1 each at Qiqihar & Jiamusi) cases in the city. 2 Medium Risk residential buildings at Jixi have been re-designated to Low Risk. A hospital at Jixi remains at Medium Risk.

    Jilin Province reported 46 new domestic confirmed (3 previously asymptomatic, 45 mild & 1 moderate) & 29 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 155 active domestic confirmed & 116 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Yanbian Prefecture Harbin reported 1 new domestic confirmed (mild) & 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 31 active domestic confirmed (all mild) & 25 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 business is currently at Medium Risk.
    • Jilin City reported 28 new domestic confirmed (3 previously asymptomatic, all mild) & 19 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 88 active domestic confirmed & 77 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 5 villages, 1 community & 1 residential building unit have been elevated to Medium Risk. 6 villages, 1 community & 2 building units are currently Medium Risk.
    • Changchun reported 17 new domestic confirmed (16 mild & 1 moderate) & 6 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 20 are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine, 3 from voluntary screening & 1 at fever clinic. There currently are 36 active domestic confirmed & 11 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
    • Meihekou reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, a traced close contact already under centralized quarantine since 3/6.
    • In the rest of the province there currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases (1 each at Siping & Liaoyuan), all part of the transmission chain spreading from Jilin City

    Hainan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 3 active confirmed (all at Sanya) & 3 active domestic asymptomatic (2 at Sanya & 1 at Chengmai County) cases in the province.

    Beijing Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (mild), found a fever clinic, source of infection is unknown. As of 3/8 a number of new domestic positive cases have been found via contact tracing.

    Shanghai Municipality reported 4 new domestic confirmed & 51 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 16 active domestic confirmed & 169 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 residential building has been elevated to Medium Risk. An activity center, 2 residential buildings & a supermarket are currently at Medium Risk.

    Xi’an in Shaanxi Province reported 5 new domestic confirmed cases (all mild), all traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed cases in the city, part of the transmission chain spreading from Shanghai. 3 residential buildings & 2 restaurants have been elevated to Medium Risk. 2 hotels, 2 restaurants & 4 residential building have been elevated to Medium Risk.

    Hubei Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 39 active domestic confirmed (30 mild & 9 moderate, all at Wuhan) & 9 active domestic asymptomatic (8 at Wuhan & 1 at Huanggang) cases in the province. 4 residential buildings & 1 hotel at Wuhan are currently at Medium Risk.

    Jiangsu Province reported 10 new domestic & 5 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 5 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 6 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 63 active domestic confirmed & 23 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Lianyungang reported 10 new domestic (9 mild & 1 moderate) & 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 5 from screening of residents in areas under movement restrictions, 5 from mass screening, 3 are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine, & 1 at fever clinic. There currently are 19 active domestic confirmed & 8 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 10 residential buildings & 1 restaurant have been elevated to Medium Risk. 23 residential buildings & 1 restaurant are currently at Medium Risk.
    • Suzhou did not report any new domestic positive cases. 5 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 4 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 43 active domestic confirmed & 13 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 Medium Risk residential building has been re-designated to Low Risk. 2 residential buildings remain at Medium Risk.
    • At Wuxi the last 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation.
    • Nantong reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, a traced close contact already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, part of the transmission chain spreading from Shanghai.
    • Xuzhou did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, at Suining County, part of the transmission chain spreading from Shanghai.

    Zhejiang Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed cases, all at Quzhou, a person who had visited Hangzhou (to the shopping center w/ the 2 domestic positive cases) on 3/2 ,& 3 traced close contacts. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed cases (4 at Quzhou, 2 each at Hangzhou & Wenzhou, & 1 at Jiaxing) in the province.

    Sichuan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 37 active domestic confirmed & 12 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • At Chengdu there currently are 36 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city (all presumed Omicron). 3 Medium Risk residential compounds have been re-designated to Low Risk. 5 residential compounds remain at Medium Risk.
    • In the test of the province did not report any new domestic positive cases. there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Meizhou) & 4 active domestic asymptomatic (4 each at Mianyang & Luzhou, & 2 at Deyang) cases remaining, part of the transmission chain spreading from Chengdu.

    in Gansu Province reported 10 new domestic confirmed (8 at Lanzhou & 1 each at Baiyin & Jiuquan; 7 mild & 3 moderate) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Linxia Prefecture) cases, 1 found at fever clinic (at Baiyin) & 9 are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 22 active domestic confirmed (20 at Lanzhou & 1 each at Baiyin & Jiuquan) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Linxia Prefecture) cases. 1 hotel is currently Medium Risk.

    At Xiamen in Fujian Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, a person who entered centralized quarantine to care for in under aged child arriving from overseas.

    At Zhengzhou in Henan Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, a person who entered centralized quarantine to care for in under aged child arriving from overseas. 

    Yunnan Province reported 5 new domestic confirmed & 18 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 61 active domestic confirmed & 177 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province.

    • Kunming reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all are students in the same college, returning from out of province on 2/27 & 2/28 (flying in from Shanghai & Jinan in Shandong). 2 were found at fever clinic (1st developing symptoms on 3/6) & 1 is a traced close contact.
    • Honghe Prefecture did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 17 active domestic confirmed & 15 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city (all presumed Omicron BA.2), all at Hekou County. 1 Medium Risk plantation has been re-designated to Low Risk. 1 residential compound remains at Medium Risk.
    • Lincang reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both found via screening of residents in areas under movement restrictions. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed & 60 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 zone is currently at Medium Risk.
    • Tengchong in Baoshan did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
    • Dehong Prefecture reported 3 new domestic confirmed & 15 new asymptomatic cases, 16 at Ruili & 2 at Longchuan County, 11 from screening of residents in areas under movement restrictions & 7 are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 30 active domestic confirmed & 87 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 2 villages, 2 communities & 1 shopping center are currently at Medium Risk.
    • At Malipo County in Wenshan Prefecture 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 10 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.

    Imported Cases

    On 3/7, Mainland China reported 150 new imported confirmed cases (13 previously asymptomatic, 5 in Guangdong), 113 imported asymptomatic cases, 5 imported suspect cases:

    • Shenzhen in Guangdong Province – 37 confirmed cases, 35 coming Hong Kong & 2 from Thailand; 5 asymptomatic cases, all Mainland Chinese residents returning from Hong Kong
    • Zhuhai in Guangdong Province – 5 confirmed & 15 asymptomatic cases, all coming from Hong Kong
    • Zhongshan in Guangdong Province – 4 confirmed & 2 asymptomatic cases, all coming from Hong Kong
    • Huizhou in Guangdong Province – 1 confirmed & 1 asymptomatic cases, both coming from Hong Kong
    • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 9 asymptomatic cases, 7 Chinese nationals returning from Nigeria, a Taiwanese resident coming from Taiwan, & a foreign national coming from Vietnam
    • Dongguan in Guangdong Province – 4 asymptomatic cases, all coming from Hong Kong
    • Foshan in Guangdong Province – 3 asymptomatic cases, all coming from Vietnam, all off a flight that landed at Guangzhou
    • Jiangmen in Guangdong Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, both coming from Hong Kong
    • Shanghai Municipality – 36 confirmed cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from Japan & 1 each from the Netherlands, Thailand, Singapore & the US, 26 Mainland Chinese residents returning from Hong Kong & 1 from Taiwan, an Australian national coming from Hong Kong, a Malaysian national coming from Hong Kong, & a South Korean national returning from South Korea; 10 symptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Japan, Canada & the US, & 7 Mainland Chinese residents returning from Hong Kong; 5 suspect cases, no information released
    • Beijing Municipality – 21 confirmed cases, 3 Chinese nationals returning from Greece & 1 each from Austria & Denmark, & 5 Mainland Chinese & 11 Hong Kong residents returning from Hong Kong; 17 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Chongzuo in Guangxi “Autonomous” Region – 16 confirmed (3 previously asymptomatic) & 4 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Liuzhou in Guangxi “Autonomous” Region – 1 confirmed case, no information released
    • Qingdao in Shandong Province – 4 confirmed cases, 3 Chinese nationals returning from South Korea & 1 from Japan
    • Weihai in Shandong Province – 3 confirmed cases, all Chinese crew members off a fishing boat w/ last port of call in Fiji; 7 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national returning from South Korea & 6 Chinese crew members off a fishing boat w/ last port of call in Fiji
    • Yantai in Shandong Province – 3 confirmed & 1 asymptomatic cases, 3 Chinese nationals returning from South Korea & 1 from Japan
    • Jinan in Shandong Province – 1 confirmed case (previously asymptomatic), coming from South Korea
    • Lanzhou in Gansu Province – 7 confirmed cases, all coming from Ukraine (via Bucharest), the 2nd evacuation flight of Chinese nationals & dependents from the country
    • Tianjin Municipality – 3 confirmed cases, all Chinese nationals returning from the Philippines
    • Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province – 2 confirmed cases (both previously asymptomatic); 18 asymptomatic cases, 17 coming from Ukraine & 1 from Japan
    • Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 2 confirmed cases (both previously asymptomatic), a Mainland Chinese resident returning from Hong Kong, & an Egyptian national coming from Egypt; 5 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Cambodia & Egypt, 2 Mainland Chinese & 1 Hong Kong residents returning from Hong Kong
    • Dalian in Liaoning Province – 1 confirmed case, no information released
    • Shenyang in Liaoning Province – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released
    • Harbin in Heilongjiang Province – 1 confirmed case, coming from Japan
    • Xiamen in Fujian Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Australia
    • Fuzhou in Fujian Province – 3 asymptomatic cases, 2 coming from Japan & 1 from Canada
    • Yunnan Province (location not specified) – 1 confirmed case, coming from Myanmar; 2 asymptomatic cases, both coming from Laos; all via land border crossings
    • Zhengzhou in Henan Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Jiangsu Province (location not specified) – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released

    Overall in Mainland China, 110 confirmed cases recovered (95 imported), 41 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (33 imported) & 19 were reclassified as confirmed cases (16 imported), & 6,129 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 4,052 active confirmed cases in the country (2,385 imported), 19 in serious condition (13 imported), 2,407 active asymptomatic cases (1,215 imported), 12 suspect cases (all imported). 101,748 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

    As of 3/7, 3,165.486M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 4.801M doses in the past 24 hrs.

    On 3/8, Hong Kong reported 28,475 new positive cases (9 imported & 28,466 domestic), another 17,236 positives from rapid antigen test results (to be included in tomorrow’s data dump), 147 deaths (only 14 fully vaccinated, including 1 boosted).

    On 3/8, Taiwan reported 29 new positive cases, 27 imported & 2 domestic.

  4. 4.

    OzarkHillbilly

    “We would like the government to declare [the coronavirus as] endemic as soon as possible,” said the Japan Business Federation

    Just say it and it will be so.

  5. 5.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Correction on the deaths for Hong Kong: 160 deaths, 116 unvaccinated (# partially vaccinated is unknown). There were another 127 previously unreported deaths between 2/21 – 3/6.

  6. 6.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 26,856 new Covid-19 cases yesterday in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 3,649,463 cases. It also reported 77 deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 33,305 deaths – 0.91% of the cumulative reported total, 1.00% of resolved cases.

    Malaysia’s nationwide Rt stands at 1.05.

    153 confirmed cases are in ICU, 81 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 30,726 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 3,311,854 patients recovered – 90.8% of the cumulative reported total.

    Eight new clusters were reported yesterday, for a cumulative total of 6,849 clusters. 445 clusters are currently active; 6,404 clusters are now inactive.

    26,645 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. 211 new cases were imported.

    The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 63,739 doses of vaccine on 7th March: 15,935 first doses, 1,766 second doses, and 46,038 booster doses. The cumulative total is 67,797,494 doses administered: 27,180,031 first doses, 25,761,043 second doses, and 15,064,528 booster doses. 83.2% of the population have received their first dose, 78.9% their second dose, and 46.1% their booster dose.

  7. 7.

    OzarkHillbilly

    Florida’s recommendation against Covid vaccination for healthy kids

    Wait until they get sick, then get them vaccinated. Just like we did with polio and smallpox and pertussis and measles and…

  8. 8.

    OzarkHillbilly

    COVID-19 can cause the brain to shrink, reduce grey matter in the regions that control emotion and memory, and damage areas that control the sense of smell, an Oxford University study has found.

    And now we know where RWNJs come from.

  9. 9.

    Ken

    “Delaying infections is actually an undervalued or underappreciated point,”

    So. It has come to this. We’ve gotten to the point where people have to be told that not getting sick is better than getting sick.

  10. 10.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Ken: The embrace of “natural immunity” is basically the idea that the best way to prevent a disease is to get the disease, so yes.

  11. 11.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Ken: As bad as things are in Hong Kong right now, it is much better than if their 1st big wave was the Delta Variant in mid-2021, w/ much lower vaccination rate.

  13. 13.

    Baud

    @Ken:

    I’ve always said the best thing Americans can do to solve gun violence is to get themselves shot.

  14. 14.

    New Deal democrat

    Cases in the US decreased to 42,000, a decline of over 33% in the last week, almost 95% from their Omicron peak, and the lowest since late last July. Deaths decreased to 1380, a decline of over 25% in the last week, and of almost 50% from their Omicron peak. Still, deaths are lagging cases by slightly over a month. If deaths were to decline 95% from peak as well, that would be only about 130 per day in a month, equivalent to their lows last June.

    Only CT and AL increased from a week ago, both most likely due to data dumps. The worst State remains ID, at 64 cases per 100,000 (a rate that would be among the worst of any States at the *peak* of any previous wave), followed by MT, ME, KY, AK, IA (all above 30), WV, VT, AL, and OK at 18. The best jurisdiction is MD at just under 6 per 100,000, followed by DC, PR, NE, OH, IN, SC, SD, AZ, and PA, all below 8 cases per 100,000.

    Because there is no evidence of any jurisdiction increasing, the downward nationwide trend should continue. It appears that Omicron did what I originally expected Delta to do, which was to infect the unvaccinated so widely that there are very few fully susceptible people left, perhaps only 10% of the entire US population. A spring respite looks very, very likely.

  15. 15.

    Kay

    @Ken:

    The thinking is covid doesn’t kill them. The vast majority. That’s the measure for child health now – “but will it KILL them?”

    Low standards.

  17. 17.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Kay: Some state is going to start taking children away from their parents for the offense of getting them vaccinated, and then the whole risk calculus changes.

  18. 18.

    Fair Economist

    Hospitalizations for COVID in the UK have resumed climbing, so they’ve likely bounced off the steady state for endemic disease. Extrapolating their death rate to the US, we would see about 120,000 deaths per year from COVID. Likely even worse here due to denialism and antivax.

    This is so not over, and it looks like I will be masking indefinitely.

  19. 19.

    Kay

    @Matt McIrvin:

    I think they’ll just start gutting federal and state funding of vaccines and vaccine research (which is huge) and hiring for anti-vaxx beliefs in public health positions and bullying or chasing out pro-vaxx public health people (that’s already happening in Florida, obviously).

    They’ll make it impossible to track (like they’ve done with gun deaths) by eliminating collecting information, because if we don’t know about it isn’t happening. Do you trust Florida’s numbers right now? I don’t. I’d need an outside audit.

  20. 20.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Kay: Do you trust Florida’s numbers right now? I don’t. I’d need an outside audit.

    Oh, their numbers are bullshit, no question about it.  According to Worldometer, they had zero new Covid deaths again yesterday, just like most days.

  21. 21.

    Sloane Ranger

    Yesterday in the UK we had 126,604 new cases reported. This figure also includes cases from Saturday and Sunday. The rolling 7-day average is up by 28.2%. New cases by nation,

    England – 95,324

    Northern Ireland – 5769

    Scotland – 24,488

    Wales – 1023.

    Deaths – There were 139 deaths reported yesterday. This figure also includes deaths from Saturday and Sunday. The rolling 7-day average is down by 5.5%. 107 deaths were in England, 9 in Northern Ireland, 21 in Scotland and 2 in Wales.

    Testing – 565,744 tests took place on 6 March. The rolling 7-day average is down by 5.7%.

    Hospitalisations – There were 10,702 people in hospital and 257 on ventilators on 4th March. The 7-day average for hospital admissions was up by 1.6% as of 1 March.

    Vaccinations – As of 6th March, 91.6% UK residents aged 12+ had had 1 shot, 85.4% had had 2, and 66.7% had had a 3rd shot/booster.

  22. 22.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    We already had rock bottom standards for child (and maternal) health among wealthy countries. I guess we’re shooting for bottom 10% of all countries.

    We once launched a 20 year campaign to eradicate childhood lead poisoning in this country. All KINDS of regulations had to be changed- hugely expensive and work intensive – made lots of industries very angry. Really successful.

    There would never be that high a goal now. “What’s a couple of IQ points? Are they DYING?” It’s a lower standard.

  23. 23.

    Baud

    @Kay:

    The American right views the U.S. the same way Putin views Ukraine: “If I can’t have it, I’m going to destroy it.”

  24. 24.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Kay:

    Do you trust Florida’s numbers right now? I don’t. I’d need an outside audit.

    I don’t trust the numbers for absolute levels of cases or deaths in most of the US. I do think they’re probably showing general trends but there’s always going to be some multiplier to assume, which varies from place to place. And there are many counties where no one ever officially dies of COVID.

    Even here in Massachusetts, I suspect the only reason Suffolk County has a higher per capita case rate than Essex County is that Suffolk County is detecting more of them.

  25. 25.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    There’s a lot of reasons a Danish system wouldn’t work in the US so it’s not really a model but there’s a country that is generous to families and children. You have to admire it. It’s not “what do they need to survive?” but “what do they need to really thrive?”. I was like “tell me about this forest preschool. They’re taking the bus to the forest to prance around and no one says it’s too expensive or calculates the ROI?”

    In return they don’t have insanely rich people so that seems like a good trade. Would anyone really miss them? If the Waltons go hit by an asteroid we’d still have stores.

  27. 27.

    Another Scott

    @Fair Economist: The UK has often led what happens in the US.  I was just about to start considering masking less…

    Number of Covid+ patients in English hospitals UP in every region except the MidlandsBiggest increase in SW – up 21% https://t.co/zmn4mMD431

    — Alastair McLellan (@HSJEditor) March 7, 2022

    (via IamHappyToast)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  28. 28.

    Baud

    Lead from gasoline blunted the IQ of about half the U.S. population, study says

    I think we know which half.

  29. 29.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    It’s really fascinating. I’m less interested in the IQ than I am in the erratic and impulsive (anti social) behavior. I do think it explains a lot.

  30. 30.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    Principal study author Michael McFarland, an associate professor of sociology at Florida State University and a faculty member of the university’s Center for Demography and Population Health, called the number of people affected by lead exposure “staggering.”
    “This is important because we often think about lead as an issue for children, and of course it is,” he said. “But what we really wanted to know is what happens to those children who were exposed?”

    Are associate professors tenured? If not, he’s going to be looking for another job.

  31. 31.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Kay: I suspect the fun of powning the Libertards on infectious disease will die down as the year goes on and COVID increasingly becomes something that dumb white people who scream at  Wallmart greeters get.

  32. 32.

    Kay

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    Saying things in positions of authority has consequences. Telling people that childhood vaccines aren’t necessary because the risk to individual children is low will have consequences. You can’t work against the whole concept of public health, which is not your individual child but instead “the public” and expect that not to ripple.

    The conservative ideological position is inconsistent with public health, as a concept.

  33. 33.

    Matt McIrvin

    @lowtechcyclist: Florida slowed the cadence of most of their reporting down to once per week, which makes it harder to track trends and viral reproduction rates there.

  34. 34.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Most of them already got COVID during the Omicron wave. The next wave will probably get them too, but right now fewer people are getting it almost everywhere. I am keeping an eye on the localized new outbreaks that still pop up, wondering if they’re harbingers of anything, but so far they tend to subside since the background level of people with immunity from recent infections is so high.

    The interesting question now is what this will do to their background levels of heart disease and stroke, which I imagine were never great in the first place.

  36. 36.

    New Deal democrat

    @Fair Economist: I’m not persuaded by the U.K. scare re BA.2. That subvariant has become dominant in a number of other countries as well, as can be seen at this tracking site:
    https://covariants.org/per-country

    And in *none* of them except for the U.K. has there been a coincident or subsequent increase in cases or deaths. In fact, in South Africa, cases have continued to decline and Delta is making a little bit of a comeback.

    In the U.K., cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all increased simultaneously in the last week, a strong indicator that what is going on is a reporting issue.

  37. 37.

    Guac

    Two years ago today was the last time I dined indoors at a restaurant. I had a delicious shrimp burger with hush puppies and an unsweet tea.

    Cases and positivity rate are looking much better here in SC, but I’m still masking in stores. I’m almost certain that cases will rise again as tourist season ramps up (packed air-conditioned restaurants).

  38. 38.

    Soprano2

    @Kay: Our governor just appointed a long-time state health department official as the “acting” head of the state health department. She will probably be “acting” for the remaining 3  years of his term; his attempt to get the last health director confirmed by the state Senate went down in flames because, even though he was anti-mandate and pro “freedom”, he wasn’t anti-mask and anti-vaxx so they wouldn’t confirm him! That’s the Republicans standard for being a health director now, you have to be against common sense health measures. You can’t just be neutral, or say it’s your choice – you have to be actively against them!

  39. 39.

    Matt McIrvin

    @New Deal democrat: I’ve noticed that weekly averages for all COVID stats in the UK look heavily affected by periodic data dumps from some source or other that have a frequency of less than once per week.

  40. 40.

    Soprano2

    I want to know how they know how many people have not had Covid. Every time there is some kind of massive testing, like the did in sports leagues, they find asymptomatic cases that people never would have known they had. Whenever someone says to me that they have never had Covid, I say “as far as you know”. Wouldn’t it take a blood test to know for sure whether you’ve had it or not? And, I remember reading somewhere that if you’ve been vaccinated there will never be a way to know for sure if you had it before vaccination if you had an asymptomatic case.

    Speaking of vaccines, I saw this completely unsurprising story this morning:

    In the op-ed, Bourla said he and Kushner disagreed over the supply time for an additional 100 million doses of the Pfizer COVID-19 jab that the Trump administration ordered. Bourla wrote that the conflict arose because the US was topping up on its original order of 100 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, but that other countries had already signed contracts with Pfizer to secure their vaccine doses.

    During the early days of the pandemic, Kushner was the head of a COVID-19 shadow task force that a documentary later revealed consisted of young volunteers buying PPE with personal email accounts.

    “Jared was asking for a very aggressive delivery plan to the US for the additional 100 million doses. He wanted it all in the second quarter of 2021,” wrote Bourla. “To do that, we would have had to take supplies from Canada, Japan, and Latin American countries, all of which had placed their orders earlier than the US and were expecting the vaccine in the second quarter.”

    The Trump children and their spouses all continue to be shown to be absolutely as bad as TFG.

  41. 41.

    Matt McIrvin

    @New Deal democrat: There do seem to be a bunch of counties in the US, especially in the Pacific Northwest and Maine, that had a dramatic plunge in cases off the Omicron wave and then a kind of bounce. I can’t tell if this is a real second outbreak (maybe induced by premature relaxation of control measures), a reporting artifact, or just random noise that I’m selecting on by examining red counties

    The situation in Maine continues to be weird, and I’ve been fascinated by it because it’s sort of in my backyard and I have a family member there. Their Omicron wave is jagged and drawn-out compared to almost everywhere else. It’s more abnormal in the rural northern counties where population density is very low but vaccination is also not great. But it’s a bit strange even in Portland.

  42. 42.

    Sloane Ranger

    @Matt McIrvin: I am not a statistician, but the different nations of the UK all have their own NHS which collects statistics and then passes them on to to the UKwide dashboard. Over time, there have been cases where processing issues in all the home countries led to delays in reporting, then Wales decided not to report on Saturday’s as far as cases and deaths were concerned, then a few months later, Scotland stopped reporting over the entire weekend. The position now is that no stats are published over the weekend for any nation and Saturday and Sunday’s figures are aggregated into Monday’s (and probably some in Tuesdays’ and even Wednesdays’ figures).

    Could this explain it?

  43. 43.

    Fair Economist

    @New Deal democrat: I’m not talking about BA.2. The point is that cases, hospitalizations AND deaths have all bottomed out in the UK and it’s not reasonable to expect the US to decline much below that, and probably not even that far. The steady state with COVID will be several times worse than for the flu, even if it does not have an evolutionary radiation into multiple strains capable of independent infections, which I think is likely.

  44. 44.

    TonyG

    @HeartlandLiberal: The ideology in New York City and New Jersey now seems to be that minor inconveniences like masking are no longer necessary so that “we can put this behind us”.  Magical  thinking, at least until the next variant hits.

  45. 45.

    Fair Economist

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Unfortunately verbally supporting public health measures doesn’t stop COVID by itself. Unless we wear more masks and continue to boost more frequently we’ll get it as much as they do. My suspicion is that even the good guys won’t actually be doing much by late Spring.

  46. 46.

    Scout211

    The White House announced that we can request a second order of COVID tests now.

    Here’s the link.

    My tests have an expiration date coming up this June so I will be ordering our second set fairly soon.

  47. 47.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Fair Economist:

    The point is that cases, hospitalizations AND deaths have all bottomed out in the UK and it’s not reasonable to expect the US to decline much below that, and probably not even that far.

    The per capita case rate that the UK has bottomed out to is 5 times the current case rate in the US, though. 10 times the case rate in my area.

    It’s possible that a lot of that is because of better testing and reporting. But I doubt that 90% of cases are being missed in my neighborhood.

    Deaths are higher here, probably because the UK has much better nationwide vaccination coverage of the elderly. But it seems to be a very different pattern with a higher persistent pattern of infections among “young immortals”. I am not sure anyone fully understands it.

  48. 48.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Fair Economist:  It’s been three years now, this is about when Spanish Flue and SARS burned themselves out. The evolutionary pressure is on a milder, more contagious. It would take the Red States going full idiot and quarantine the mild cases of COVID while forcing the severe cases out in public to change that trend.

  49. 49.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Sloane Ranger: It seemed more like there was a periodic spike that suggested that some, but not all, of the data sources were only reporting monthly. I’m not sure that is what’s happening now though.

  50. 50.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: I wouldn’t count on the evolutionary pressure toward a milder virus. My impression is that most virologists don’t really credit that as significant. With COVID, the rate at which it kills or even slows down people is already low enough that while it is a huge problem for humans, it doesn’t impede transmission of the virus much. That Omicron is inherently somewhat less lethal was probably more dumb luck than anything else.

    The more important thing is that the general population are not as immunologically naive. At this point, probably over 90% of people in the US are either vaccinated, or have a prior COVID infection, or both. That won’t necessarily protect them from being infected by later waves, as antibodies decline and variants vary, but the associated B- and T-cell immunity should reduce the lethality of subsequent infections. About more subtle damage, it’s harder to say for sure.

  51. 51.

    Matt McIrvin

    …Also, the 1918 flu did not so much burn itself out as people stopped treating it as a pandemic and accepted a high background level of deaths, much like today. I am pretty sure my biological great-grandmother died of it in 1921.

  52. 52.

    smith

    If we’re looking for the impact of different omicron subvariants, the pattern in the US right now is interesting. According to CDC sampling, the region with the highest proportion of the BA.2 subvariant is New England (Region 1), with 24%. The lowest is in the lower plains states (Region 7) with 6%. Comparing current case rates in those regions, New England’s is slightly higher, but the trends in the two regions look very similar. There may be a bit of slowing in the downward trend in NE, but there’s no obvious bump.

  53. 53.

    Fair Economist

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: SARS did not burn itself out. It was eradicated by worldwide concerted effort and stringent isolation of potential carriers. Not happening this time.

    Spanish flu is contentious. I’ve seen one claim in a scientific source that it mutated/recombined to a less lethal variant in 1920. I can’t find it right now, though. Many do believe that after having had it once, people were resistant enough that mortality dropped back to more or less pre-1918 levels, so “burnt out” in a sense. However, with COVID, a similar “burnt out” state would stili probably produce deaths of 100k – 200k per year. If first-time COVID had a mortality of 0.6%, that’s about 2,000,000 deaths per infection in the US. Let’s say mortality drops 90% on subsequent infection. Comparisons with the infectivity of existing human coronaviruses indicate people would get recurrent COVID about once every 18 months. That’s still 130,000 deaths per year. Which is about where the UK has leveled off at.  Hmmm.

  54. 54.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Fair Economist: Many do believe that after having had it once, people were resistant enough that mortality dropped back to more or less pre-1918 levels, so “burnt out” in a sense.

    IIRC the “burnout” was greatly aided by the lack of any animal population to serve as a reservoir of the virus – to the extent that (again IIRC) researchers searching for “Spanish Flu” virus to use in lab work were reduced to sampling the bodies of  victims from the far north that had been buried in permafrost. Not nearly the case for Miz ‘Rona, sfortunamente.

  55. 55.

    Matt McIrvin

    @smith: I do wonder if that has something to do with the different infection pattern in Maine. But it’s equally likely that the much lower population density in Maine just had a curve-flattening effect, producing a longer Omicron wave with a lower and more jagged peak.

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