President Biden talks about next steps to hold Russia accountable for their aggression.
Main points:
? Biden just spoke with President Zelenskyy.
? US allies are still working in lockstep to fight Putin’s aggression.
? Allies and G-7 jointly announcing new steps today.
? We will defend every single inch of NATO territory and we will make sure Ukraine has weapons to defend against the invasion.
? Direct confrontation with US and NATO fighting on the ground in Ukraine would be the beginning of World War III, which we must strive to prevent.
? We are united in revoking what is commonly referred to as “most favored nation status” for Russia, making it harder to do business with nations that control half of the world’s economy (called PNTR in the US)
? Special shout-out to Speaker Pelosi who agreed to hold off on this in the House until Biden could line up key allies to do the same thing.
? Banning imports and goods in sectors of the Russian economy: vodka, diamonds, and seafoods.
? G-7 will be seek to deny Russia the ability to borrow from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
? G-7 is working together to add more oligarchs & families to the list who are sanctioned. They have stolen from the Russian people and we are working in coordination to increasingly capture ill-gotten gains such as super yachts and
actionvacation homes.? We are also making it harder for them to buy high-end products manufactured in the US, banning luxury good sales to Russia.
? More than 30 other countries providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
? Last night the senate voted to send $13.6 billion in additional aid to Ukraine. Looking forward to signing the bill.
? We will welcome, should welcome, Ukrainian refugees with open arms.
? Putin’s war against Ukraine will never be a victory. Putin has failed.
? Putin’s attempt to weaken NATO has failed.
? These are not the last steps we will be taking.
If you want to watch, the President begins at minute 31:20 and ends at minute 40.
Last night either Omnes or Martin (can’t remember which one!) shared that one idea being explored as an alternate to the MiG idea is ending S-300s from former Soviet aligned NATO members could possibly go to Ukraine. More or less the same deal, the US will backfill transferred units with US made equivalents.
Here’s more information about S-300s, which has been added to the War in Ukraine lexicon that’s available under WAR IN UKRAINE in the blue category bar up to;
S-300
The S-300 is a Soviet designed long range anti-aircraft unit. These things are big – bigger than tanks, but not armored. They can hit targets up to 75 miles away, depending on model. These could be driven across the border, so no need to fly in, and they aren’t really a threat to targets inside Russia so unlikely to be views as an offensive Ukrainian weapon. It can also target cruise and ballistic missiles, so would provide Ukraine with additional defense against them.
Also, this is an interesting cover.
It of course makes Putin look the fool for considering any new arrangements with China to be a partnership.
Any thoughts on that or anything else? Open thread.
WaterGirl
Also, you guys are amazing. As I hit publish on this post I saw that we are at nearly $20,000 in Balloon Juice for Ukraine.
Baud
Two things.
1. Not foreclosing a no-fly zone at some point (“on the ground”).
2. As a certified expert in such matters due to my presence on the Internet, I think Putin is frustrated by NATO’s restraint. Putin’s only leverage against the world is his nukes. He doesn’t want to use them because he knows it would be the end of him and Russia. But he wants to threaten NATO with them to force them to bargain over Ukraine’s fate. But since NATO isn’t escalating, it has deprived Putin of an excuse to threaten thee world nuclear war. So he’s stuck while his army and his economy are being literally and figuratively bled dry.
Old School
Missed opportunity: Winne-the-Pooh entered public domain this year.
dmsilev
That sounds like an absolutely horrible cocktail recipe.
eclare
@WaterGirl: I missed the initial announcement, what charity or charities will the money be donated to
I just clicked and saw, got my answer!
phein63
Russian pilots won’t be afraid of UA fighters, but they will be very afraid of S-300’s.
Anonymous At Work
Russia-China situation is that the Tongs have done the vory some favors for when the Tongs need favors returned, aka when they cross/try to cross the strait into Taiwan. If anything, piling up the economic sanctions and shutting down imports/exports should help deter an invasion of Taiwan.
Does anyone know what the scale of China’s energy dependence is? How much does it import from places besides Russia?
Steeplejack
Should be “in lockstep,” not “in lock-stop.”
Also, “in lockstep” has a slightly negative connotation—it’s how they used to make chained prisoners walk—so perhaps something like “in tandem” would be better, unless it was a direct quote from somebody.
WaterGirl
@Baud: That’s how I felt about the bombing of the children’s hospital and maternity hospital – like Putin intentionally did something that monstrous in order to get us to escalate in some way.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Yes, I agree.
dmsilev
More seriously, there’s definitely an impact on commodities prices and supply. The one that impacts me professionally is helium, both gas and liquid. Something like fifteen or twenty percent of the global supply comes from Russia (it’s a side-product of oil and gas extraction), and the price is spiking. Doesn’t help that the US is just about finished winding down the National Helium Reserve, first set up about a century ago to make sure that we had enough for the nation’s fleet of airships…
Edit: Also suddenly in short supply is isotopic helium-3. That has two large global suppliers, the US nuclear weapons program and the Russian nuclear weapons program…
Lyrebird
Is there a good way to repost the recent commentary from YY Sima Quian from an earlier thread?
And thanks WG!
Anonymous At Work
@dmsilev: Now on sale at Trump Bar & Grill.
WaterGirl
@eclare: I have asked DougJ to add the Vindman one that goes to medical supplies, etc.
You would almost think that with a newborn at home that DougJ might have higher priorities than adding that! But I’m still reminding him. :-)
WaterGirl
@phein63: Say more?
Roger Moore
@Baud:
The key here is that the failure- or at least failure to win on schedule- of Russian conventional troops is what’s put Putin in the corner. If he had blitzed Ukraine in a few days, he would have the facts on the ground to support whatever outcome he wanted, probably open Russian occupation and annexation of the Rusophone majority parts of Ukraine and a Russian puppet government in Kyiv. He didn’t get that and instead is bogged down in brutal, inconclusive fighting while the Russian economy is being crushed by sanctions. Trying to hold the world hostage with nuclear weapons is plan B, or maybe plan C or D.
WaterGirl
@Steeplejack: Typo or autocorrect. thanks
eclare
@WaterGirl: Thanks!
Booger
@dmsilev: …so are you a radiologist or a children’s performer??
Baud
@Roger Moore:
Agreed. That was Plan A. But like all right wingers, when Plan A failed, the only tactic he had at his disposal was escalation. But it hasn’t worked, at least not yet.
WaterGirl
@Lyrebird: Not sure what you are referring to. If you can point me to it, I’ll take a look.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@dmsilev: I would not be surprised if somewhere in Manhattan, London or wherever you can get a $2,000 (or more) Bloody Mary that includes a diamond-tipped swizzle stick, in platinum or gold, and an anchovy or oyster in there somewhere.
Just googled “elaborate Bloody Mary” and I see one with a crab claw and a giant shrimp. Also, two with sliders. They all look gross to me.
Baud
@Booger:
Por qué no los dos?
Roger Moore
@Booger:
I think dmsilev is a physicist who works with ultra-low temperatures. Anyone who works with superconducting magnets or other stuff that requires keeping things ultra-cold cares a lot about the price of helium.
sdhays
@Baud: I think there’s a lot to this. Also, there’s less shame in being defeated by NATO, a “worthy” adversary. Being defeated by Ukraine, which Putin’s propaganda machine has been denigrating for years, would generate a lot of doubt over his competence and invincibility.
Ken
Typo for “vacation homes”? If not, I’m debating whether I want to know what an “action home” is.
Boris Rasputin (the evil twin)
@Roger Moore: As I said yesterday, Stalin would’ve had Putin shot by now, not for the brutality, but the incompetence he and the army have shown.
What are the odds Putin has a job – or a pulse – at the end of the year?
sdhays
@phein63: My understanding is that they are afraid of Ukrainian fighters. That’s why they’re holding back on the flights they take over Ukraine. Too much risk of not coming back.
Boris Rasputin (the evil twin)
@Ken: Wilt Chamberlain’s house had a “Do-it Room” for orgies. Let’s stop there, shall we?
H.E.Wolf
An interesting thread on the risks of “imperative-driven thinking”. So far, Biden and his administration appear to be steering clear of that.
https://twitter.com/MMazarr/status/1501688603042361346
Calouste
@Old School: I think that cover is from a few years back, because it mentions “Britain’s new Prime Minister”, and the current failure has been in office for a while now.
Geminid
@dmsilev: Can U.S. helium production be expanded? I think we used to extract helium from natural gas in Texas, maybe other states.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Boris Rasputin (the evil twin): Putin has an aqua-disco in his palace on the Black Sea coast
Baud
@H.E.Wolf: good thread. Thanks.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Jesus
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
And the GOP complains about Biden’s billiards room.
Roger Moore
@Boris Rasputin (the evil twin):
Maybe so, but it’s not as if Stalin didn’t have his own military failure at least as bad as what’s happening in Ukraine. Russia eventually won the Winter War, but the Finns did a lot of damage before that happened.
Frankensteinbeck
@Baud:
We were told in one of these threads that Putin wants to be officially fighting NATO. His army and his people don’t want to be fighting Ukraine for the same reasons Putin does want to invade Ukraine – the country is seen as their friends and relatives. Russia could unite against NATO. Against Ukraine he’s facing heavy backlash and an army so unmotivated they’re on the edge of deserting en masse.
ian
@Calouste:
In even smaller text is says 2019 on the cover. I had to really squint to read that.
Sebastian
I’ve been thinking about the sale of Tomahawk Cruise Missiles to Ukraine. There is obviously a weapons treaty issue here and Cheryl or Adam can comment on that but I wonder if it could be circumvented by limiting the Tomahawks to cluster ammunition warheads which would be absolutely devastating to Russian artillery positions.
MattF
About that Economist cover— Krugman noted recently that China’s economy is ten times larger than Russia’s, so Russia would be very much the junior partner in any ‘alliance’. Putin would not be happy about that. Also, Russian population and industrial areas are on Russia’s western end geographically, while China’s population and industry are near the Chinese eastern coast, 3500 miles away. Add to that a long history of China-Russia hostility, China’s deep integration with global business, so it cannot be really eager to fully align with Russia. I predict words of love but not much else.
Baud
@Frankensteinbeck: Putin can fight NATO any time he wants. Easy enough for him to attack a NATO country directly.
Heidi Mom
I just noticed that the President is wearing a classy blue and yellow tie.
VOR
Biden has done an amazing job of creating and maintaining unity with the G7, NATO, and the EU. I cannot imagine TFG being capable of doing this because it requires letting other people take a lead role. He wasn’t a team player.
Baud
@VOR: Plus he was pro-Russia and anti-NATO.
Calouste
@Roger Moore: And that military failure was partially or even mainly caused by Stalin purging many of his generals in 1937.
trollhattan
Heard a BBC interview with a military analyst who spent considerable time in Syria and watched the Russian tactics used for Aleppo from nearby. He described a four-year siege that had bogged down. As a city is leveled it forces street-level combat, which favors defenders. And that’s where things stood until chemical weapons came into the picture, first sairn gas and then chlorine, from the infamous barrel bombs.
Chlorine being heavier than air hugs the ground and finds the hiding places–cellars, bomb shelters, etc.–used by the survivors. And with that change in tactics, the four-year stalemate was over in mere weeks. “Mission accomplished.”
The analyst warned that Russia is likely to repeat this in Ukraine once the various city sieges bog down to street combat level. What wasn’t discussed was whether this can only be done from the air or if chemical artillery can do the same thing.
In sum, whatever monstrosities we have learned about the last two weeks are perhaps only the opening scenes of far worse yet to come. Is there any evidence Putin will not continue doing whatever it takes to win?
WaterGirl
@Ken: Fixed, thanks!
i was typing as i was listening to Biden speak, so I suspect that won’t be the last typo in today’s post.
Frankensteinbeck
@Baud:
That’s the problem, isn’t it? Officially fighting NATO without having to actually fight NATO’s military that would bulldoze him. Being able to convince his people that NATO threw the first punch helps, too. If NATO moves into Ukraine, Putin loses that war but at least his domestic situation becomes absolutely rock solid. He may even believe that would give his army the motivation to hold a big enough chunk of Ukraine to get him closer to his Iron Curtain. As you may have noticed in America, people driven by hate have odd beliefs in what they can win.
trollhattan
@MattF:
It’s boggling what an economic weakling Russia has become. California’s economy is much larger and our population is close to that of Ukraine. And Russia’s wealth gap is staggering. That they’ve been able to keep the general population mostly benign in response to these conditions is a wonder.
WaterGirl
@H.E.Wolf: That’s an interesting thread, thanks for linking to it.
trollhattan
@Ken:
Dunno but it sounds fun. “Hey, wanna come up to the Tahoe Action House this weekend?”
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Perhaps the Russian cosmonauts “won’t notice” if the US astronaut somehow manages to stow away “without their knowledge”.
We may find out what the Russian astronauts are made of.
dr. luba
Not a team player? He was Team Putin all the way!!!!!
Roger Moore
@Baud:
Putin doesn’t want to fight NATO. He wants NATO to attack him.
WaterGirl
@ian: I tried to find a date but was unsuccessful.
Interesting, though, that even 2-3 years ago it appeared to some people like the Russia-China partnership was not going to be an equal partnership.
Surely that’s even more true now with Russia isolated from pretty much the rest of the world. I cannot imagine that Putin could see himself entering into a “partnership” where he was not the one on top.
Any way I look at it, I see no end game for Putin.
WaterGirl
@Sebastian: Can you say more about that?
Calouste
@trollhattan: Putin might want to, but he’s not a wizard. Other people will have to execute on his commands, and they might not do so, or not do so in the intended way.
Ken
@H.E.Wolf: We should also remember the danger of false dichotomies. Sometimes they even show up in Balloon Juice comments.
opiejeanne
@Boris Rasputin (the evil twin): Oh God, my dad had to inspect that house for L.A. electrical codes when it was being built; I was in HS, I think. He said the counters were nearly up to his neck.
Funny he never mentioned the orgy room
I think he had a special room built for Mickey Rooney in case he wanted to sleep over.
gene108
@Steeplejack:
“In tandem” sounds like someone describing synchronized swimming. I’d say we want something more masculine, but then English neutered all its nouns. Long before the woke police neutered Mr. and Mrs. Potato Head, the English language set the precedent for being woke, neutering itself so masculine and feminine are just abstract concepts.
Steeplejack
@H.E.Wolf:
Very good. Here’s a Thread Reader version for the Twitter-averse.
MisterForkbeard
@trollhattan: True. Although to be far, California’s wealth gap is staggering too. After working in silicon valley for a decade, I’m technically part of that too. >_<
Geminid
@WaterGirl: President Biden is meeting with the House Democratic Caucus now in Philadelphia. They’re having an “Issues Conference.” I’m hoping there will be video of Biden’s remarks, and maybe Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries’ welcome.
Jeffries gives a good speech. Anyone needing a boost to the spirits can get one by pulling up the speech he gave nominating Nancy Pelosi for the Speakership in January 2019. Jeffries had Pelosi grinning by the end.
catclub
@Baud:
I was remembering that Trump put tariffs on European wine and spirits, then I wondered if he exempted Russian vodka.
Oklahomo
@dmsilev:
It might go well with anthrax and tire rims…
smith
@gene108: Do I gather from this comment that feminine = weak? Good to know.
lollipopguild
Russia has a population of about 140 million, Ukraine about 40 million. Putin has to hire people from the Middle East to fight for him? Who is he going to hire when China decides to take Siberia away from him?
Roger Moore
@trollhattan:
Those two things are intimately connected. The economy is a shambles because the oligarchs are stealing everything in sight.
dmsilev
@Booger:
(sorry for delayed response). Physicist, working in cryogenics. A lot of cryostats use liquid helium as a consumable, though more modern ones are completely closed-cycle and don’t need it. Going below 1 Kelvin generally requires helium-3, which is always in a closed-cycle configuration because $$$. Helium-3 is also used in neutron detectors, so the big increase in demand for radiation sensors at ports and the like after 9/11 caused a pretty substantial price spike that has never really abated.
WaterGirl
@Heidi Mom: Nice! I noticed that when President Zelenskyy spoke to the House of Commons, but I didn’t pick up on that here.
Possibly because I was on another screen frantically typing so I could summarize what President Biden said. :-)
Wapiti
@Roger Moore: I think, just like a Republican would, Putin blames Biden for everything that went wrong with his plan. In Putin’s case, he might not be totally wrong.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: ooh. If you find something like that, let me know. I’m in favor of promoting the good things we are doing as well as everything else that is more shiny.
MisterDancer
@Sebastian: Always a risk to depend on Wikipedia, yet it’s aligning to my recollection — from where would you launch a Tomahawk in this conflict?
I doubt any of the air/sea assets Ukraine has available, or can easily get, can launch these. And the only system that, again per Wikipedia, was ground level…was. It was the BGM-109G, and it was pulled from service because of the INF Treaty — and although we may have pulled out of that treaty, I doubt we’ve re-activated those systems, nor do I think giving them to Ukraine would be wise.
Wapiti
@Roger Moore: The (Russian) economy is a shambles because the oligarchs are stealing everything in sight.
One wonders how much the US economy might improve with better checks/taxation on our oligarchs and oligarch-corporate-persons.
UncleEbeneezer
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: This is some For All Mankind* shit right here.
*The best, most underrated/overlooked show on tv, imo.
UncleEbeneezer
@Baud: Fellow Internet U., alumni here. I got both my Foreign Policy and my Immunology degrees there!
Roger Moore
@Wapiti:
Biden was obviously and publicly interfering with Putin’s plans, and in a way that has to have been embarrassing. That said, the biggest causes of his plan failing is clearly worse performance than expected by the Russian military and better than expected performance by the Ukrainian military. But blaming it on Biden is a more politically acceptable answer.
Brachiator
A reminder of how easily things can go wrong. From BBC News 3 hours ago.
Here’s hoping that everyone in international hot spots keep cool.
gene108
@smith:
Make of it what you will.
American Conservatives who are mad about gender neutral Potato Head toys, may want to take a look at what the English language did in only having gender neutral nouns and might want to rethink their choice of language.
The English language was a gender neutral Potato Head toy long before toy makers got into the act.
*News is a bit much. I’m working on the next great right-wing conspiracy, how English became “woke”.
Miss Bianca
@Boris Rasputin (the evil twin): You keep saying that. So I’ll say: How long did Stalin tolerate Lysenko, whose agricultural policies helped fuel Ukrainian famine in the 30s? A heck of a long time, as it turns out.
A protracted war to kill as many Ukrainians as possible through starvation and other means would probably have been a feature, not a bug, as far as Stalin was concerned.
Kay
Important to remember when we read hot political takes about public schools that none of the hot-takers attended or attend one.
trollhattan
@dmsilev:
I recollect back in the day when, presumably Chicago School economists, neocons, and Bill Clinton “discovered” the National Helium Reserve and went “hardy-har, we’re filling all those Air Force blimps.” They passed Helium Privatization Act of 1996, which sold off helium at well below market price–hello, party balloon industry–until it was somewhat reformed in 2013.
IOW, there are only stupid reasons we do not have enough helium for any possible industrial or scientific use.
Cacti
This.
Putin sleeps on a personal fortune of $200b USD, while 1 out of every 5 Russians lacks indoor plumbing.
Kay
Translation: I would fling myself in front of a moving train before I would repeal any of the Trump tax cuts.
A year wasted talking to this person when all he had to do was be honest enough to say he and Sinema will never back anything that repeals or modifies a Trump tax cut.
VeniceRiley
Half the global production of neon (crucial for semiconductor manufacture) comes from Ukraine.
With the disruption from Covid, this is going to hurt. A lot.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/11/tech/ukraine-neon-chips/index.html
If it falls to Vlad, that’s a global catastrophe.
Matt McIrvin
@Geminid: I think helium comes from uranium mines, usually. (It’s literally made of alpha particles from radioactive decay.)
gene108
@Brachiator:
A January 1, 2021 article: Soldier Killed As Pak Shells Forward Posts Along Line Of Control In J&K’s Rajouri
There’s a constant low grade conflict between India and Pakistan, which has not escalated.
The last war was in 1971, which India won. I doubt either side wants war.
Matt McIrvin
@dmsilev:
Oh, lord, that will get the space fans excited.
(preemptive disclaimer: the plans to mine helium-3 from the Moon are wildly impractical and generally foolish)
Kay
If I were Chuck Schumer I would forget the rest and just raise taxes on rich people. It polls at 70-some percent and it would be enormously clarifying and a huge relief to just force these people to tell the truth- that they exist to protect those tax cuts.
The Moar You Know
Oh, Putin is quite aware of his nation’s status in relation to China. It is not quite a “vassal” state or a dependency, but getting very close. Like North Korea.
CaseyL
@Kay: Schumer, Biden, Pelosi, and every other Democrat who gets in front of a microphone should draw parallels between the US ultra-rich who sequester the nation’s wealth and prosperity all to themselves, and the oligarchs who have hollowed out Russia by the same method.
phein63
@WaterGirl: Military pilots tend to be supremely self-confident, especially with respect to other pilots. They can detect enemy fighters in time to evade or engage. Surface-to-air missiles are another story: there’s no use trying to engage one, and they are difficult to evade. A ring of S-300’s or similar augmented by handheld SAMs would be a sub-optimal operating environment for Russian jets, especially since the Russian ground forces seem to lack the ability to suppress UA ground fires (as witnessed by the tank killer team success). UA or NATO jets, on the other hand, would be subject to attack by large SAMs based in Russia or Belarus, which could not be suppressed under the current rules of engagement.
indycat32
@Kay: Isn’t policy his job?
Cacti
@The Moar You Know: I imagine that Beijing is very content to sit back and watch Putin unilaterally act to weaken his standing in every respect.
Matt McIrvin
@trollhattan: I kind of hate helium party balloons. Feels like a foolish waste of a finite resource with important uses.
(btw, I was wrong, most of it is extracted from natgas. But the ultimate source is still radioactive decay. Helium-3 comes mostly from bombardment of lithium by neutrons and is far, far rarer.)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@indycat32: I can’t bring myself to watch it but he’s talking, in his halfwit-who-thinks-he’s-smart way, about something called “social policy”, which I’m guessing is different from serious stuff, which means something-something-debt-and-deficit
Frankensteinbeck
@Roger Moore:
Thank you. My brain was dancing around this point and just would not get specific.
@Roger Moore:
I think it’s also a more emotionally acceptable answer. Invading Ukraine was a war of choice by a man seething with bitterness that the West won the Cold War. He is paranoid and demands his subordinates tell him what he wants to hear. There is no way he is going to believe the true answer, “Your plan was and still is fucking stupid.” He’ll blame NATO and especially the US, which Biden is face of.
LadySuzy
@VeniceRiley: Half the global production of neon (crucial for semiconductor manufacture) comes from Ukraine.
With the disruption from Covid, this is going to hurt. A lot.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/11/tech/ukraine-neon-chips/index.html
If it falls to Vlad, that’s a global catastrophe.
Just another blackmail tool for Putin.
I really understand the reluctance about escalation. However, I’m torn because I’m far from sure that we won’t end up in a more difficult and more risky situation anyway in the near future. We’re putting an awful lot of hope into economic sanctions and into the Russian population eventually rebelling. Russia can feed its population, and a very oppressive regime can conscript millions of people, and force the population into a war economy.
I have this knot in my stomach. I’m wondering if we won’t regret not having taken the risks right now to stop Putin.
MattF
@Sebastian: There’s a large amount of infrastructure and training that goes along with Tomahawks, not to mention their high price. You can get the needed bang/buck in other ways. Cruise missiles are complex items.
Doug R
@Baud:
I think this is what the telegraphing of a chemical attack is about-to provoke a response from NATO.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
interesting nugget in that story
I’m grasping at straws of positivity wherever I can see them
The Moar You Know
@WaterGirl: The problem is that the Soyuz comes down in Russian territory. Can’t land one in the ocean. If they bring the American back with them, that American is instantly a hostage and the two cosmonauts lives are forfeit.
He can stay up there for a while longer; we can get him back easily, thanks to SpaceX.
Matt McIrvin
@dmsilev: My training was theoretical but, of course, I had to take lab courses in undergrad and grad school. My least favorite thing ever was a graduate lab in which we had to measure superconductivity in various metals using liquid helium to cool them. Working with liquid helium was the biggest pain in the ass of anything–worse than high voltages, worse than radioactive stuff by far, because the slightest slip could cause this stuff to evaporate expensively in copious amounts. In conclusion, I salute you.
Kay
@CaseyL:
They could but they don’t have to. It’s 70%.
They could just say Raise Taxes On The Rich.
I would say “to get our financial house in order” but I truly enjoy trolling fake budget hawks like Manchin.
He’s a phony. He had no trouble spending billions on infrastructure and none of that was paid for. A fraud.
dmsilev
@Matt McIrvin: It’d be cheaper, by about an order of magnitude, to build reactors dedicated to helium-3 production. There’s a minor nuclear-weapons-proliferation issue that would need to be solved (3He is made by making tritium, and then waiting for that to decay; tritium is fusion-bomb-fuel…). There was a study that ran the numbers maybe a decade or so ago, and found that, putting the proliferation question aside, such a reactor would be cost-effective if helium 3 costs went up by about 4x from where they are now. Still a lot cheaper than strip-mining the lunar regolith for trace amounts of residue from the solar wind.
The Moar You Know
@lollipopguild: China will simply pay them for it. And that transfer is going to happen in the not so distant future.
Matt McIrvin
@dmsilev: There’s also the fact that the application they usually imagine is a type of nuclear fusion reactor that doesn’t exist either.
Kay
@CaseyL:
1.5 trillion in spending and not a penny in additional revenue. They’re liars.
Lyrebird
@WaterGirl: Hi, found ’em!
In response to Adam’s latest post, like comments 130, 134, 138. I don’t know if he/she would want to put things together onto a guest post or would prefer to keep a lower profile.
SiubhanDuinne
@Calouste:
I saw “Britain’s New Prime Minister,” but just thought the Economist had some deep background into current Tory machinations to get rid of BoJo.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I am a digital dinosaur, but I’ll look. Since you seem to have preternatural skills with this internet thing, you might find it first. You can certainly find Jeffries’ January, 2019 speech nominating Pelosi for Speaker on YouTube. You’ll be glad you did. It’s a rousing three minutes.
dmsilev
@Matt McIrvin: Well, like most things efficiently handling and transferring liquid cryogens is a skill that can be learned. It’s a slowly dying art, since closed-cycle systems are becoming more and more common. They cost more up-front, but the total life-cycle costs are a lot lower.
Cacti
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I just can’t believe Israel would say that. They’re our bestest good friend in the history of everything ever.
Just ask them.
patrick II
@Baud:
Agreed, but this type of gradualism is pretty tough on Ukraine. It seems that anything that might significantly help Ukrainians suddenly turn the tide would give Putin his excuse, so we send them enough to keep them fighting and bleed Russia, but the price is awfully high for Ukraine.
Kent
China probably doesn’t want to actually govern Siberia. They just want to strip mine it of all resources. Which they will be able to do at fire sale discount prices with the crumbling of the ruble and the closure of all other markets for Russian goods and raw materials.
dmsilev
Another entry in sanctions-that-will-really-hurt:
Pokemon Go will soon be unplayable in Russia
bjacques
@Matt McIrvin:
so snorting helium from balloons is like rolling coal, but in a high-pitched voice
Geminid
@Matt McIrvin: Don’t know about uranium mines. Neon is extracted fom natural gas. I think I even saw an old article about neon production at a gas field, way down the entries for “balloon juice.”
lee
I read earlier than one of the issues going directly after the oligarchs is how many countries (the US included) make it easy to hide wealth.
Hopefully our efforts prove fruitful in this endeavor.
VeniceRiley
@LadySuzy: IDK, and I’m just an internet junkie, but perhaps at the cost of a horrible outcome for Ukraine, they’re getting Russia and Belarus to, in essence, shoot their wad there. Then come at them very weakened
ETA: Biden’s big domestic semiconductor factories mentioned in SOTU? I suppose perhaps there is a plan for neon as well. Ya never know.
Brachiator
@gene108:
An accidental missile launch, even given the ongoing conflict between these two countries, is an unusual event, especially if it was entirely unintentional.
Wapiti
@The Moar You Know: Putin might balk when China insists on paying in rubles.
Captain C
@Roger Moore: Stalin was also basically catatonic for the first week-plus of the Nazi invasion. When Beria and the others finally dared to fetch him, he was half-convinced they were coming to take him to his execution.
And really, he was only able to ultimately win because he was able (and willing) to sacrifice bodies and time until the Nazi blitz ran out of steam, and because Hitler was, thankfully, such a bad tactician and strategist.
SiubhanDuinne
@Geminid:
Here you go:
https://youtu.be/jMM0Vgjgt4k
Captain C
@lollipopguild:
There’s a good chance China won’t have to bother; they can just buy the resources at fire sale prices and let Russia deal with the money pit that is Siberia and the Russian Far East.
trollhattan
@Matt McIrvin: Agreed, frittering helium away on balloons used for an hour or three seems so very wasteful. Related, have lost count of mylar balloon remnants I have run across in the high Sierra Nevada backcountry. Whether the party was in San Jose or Fresno, that’s where they can end up. (Electrical utilities are also not fans.)
Kristine
@Matt McIrvin:
I hate them because I find deflated ones complete with ribbons tangled in shrubs etc along the lakeshore. Those things need to go away.
trollhattan
@Wapiti:
They’ll need to deliver the rubles in wheelbarrows, which will inevitably be built in China. I tell ya, “it’s a trap!”
Doug R
@Captain C:
Russia’s best generals-General January and General February.
UncleEbeneezer
On a lark I just looked up the lineup for Hollywood Bowl Jazz Festival this year and holy shit, Sunday is like several of my fave artists!: Christian Scott atunde Adjuah (horn player I love), Tower of Power, Lyne Carrington + Social Science (amazing Black woman drummer- fusion), Femi Kuti + The Positive Force (Afrobeat/world music) and….the king of smooth, R&B/Soul (and me and my wife’s favorite) Gregory Porter!! For a first concert since Covid, this will be a pretty awesome time.
Ruckus
@Baud:
1 Sometimes it’s better to annoy the opposition, rather than attempt to crap all over them and fail.
2 And yes sometimes you do just have to punch them.
3 As there is no referee – or much in the way of rules that everyone will or have followed in this situation, self preservation is paramount.
4 The only alternative is to make it as uncomfortable/costly as possible for your opponent.
This method is costly in many ways but in the long run usually has a better payoff.
trollhattan
Random fuel-gouge observation: Our nearest Chevron stealation listed diesel @ $5.80 last weekend and now it is $7.08. Nope, nothing to see here. Best of my knowledge it’s a corporate-owned station, not franchise.
Geech
Yeah, I wrote a funny song and did a video about all of this, though I admit I need a rewrite to get a bunch of this new stuff in there.
https://youtu.be/q-yYWjn4S38
Kelly
@Matt McIrvin: We had an unreachable mylar balloon in a backyard tree all summer a few years back. Grrr.
Matt McIrvin
@Geminid: it only just occurred to me that we are literally talking about balloon juice here. It’s the most on-topic thread ever!
James E Powell
@The Moar You Know:
Nothing in orbit is easy.
Citizen Alan
@Kay: .
I’ve said many times we should call their bluff on deficit reduction. Raise taxes back to Reagan era levels and devote 100% of the additional income to reducing the national debt down to zero. I don’t even think that’s a good idea to be honest, but I love to see republicans try to argue against it.
Kent
Also by the time that the Russians really went on the offensive with Operation Bagration in 1944 and shattered the German front line in Europe they were a highly mobile force and a lavishly equipped force fueled by hundreds of thousands of trucks, arms, and equipment of all kinds sent by the US through Lend-Lease. It is estimated that by 1944 Lend Lease sent enough equipment to Russia to fully equip over 60 army divisions. By contrast, the Germans were on their own and suffering massive industrial losses due to allied bombing. Modern war is all about logistics.
Captain C
@Kent: Germany was, IIRC, still using horses for most of their logistics and transport, which had to be a lot less efficient than the modern trucks the Soviets were given by lend-lease.
matt
Man, Mitch McConnell must be really pissed off at Putin right now. They’re going to have to run against ‘Leader of the Free World’ Biden instead of ‘Domestic Policy Squabbles’ Joe Biden.
CaseyL
If Belarus invades Ukraine at Putin’s behest, can we retaliate against Belarus in a way we can’t against Russia?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
https://youtu.be/kVo5I0xNRhg
Germany lost WW2 for the very same reason it lost WW1, no oil, no food.
Tank with no oil don’t go voom voom. Think of it as the same as movement points in a war game; no fuel and some big hand comes out of the sky and slaps a big red cardboard “Out of Supply” on that tank.
So Hitler invades the very region before fought over right now (really huge battle at Kyev in 1941) to get the food. Germans win, so the Nazis celebrate by promptly began murdering the Ukraine farmers who survived Stalin’s Kulak purges, because they were Slavs and Jews. For some reason, kill all farmers didn’t solve Germany’s food problems. Meanwhile German armoured divisions stall about 2/3 the way to Moscow because no oil.
Teh stupid is long and deep in Europe.
dmsilev
@Kent:
“An army marches on its stomach”, attributed to Napoleon.
Of course, he then went on to ignore that and invade Russia, thus gifting the world with some classic works of literature and music and one of the all-time great infographics.
matt
@sdhays: As I understand it they’re mostly afraid of Ukrainian ground-based anti-air.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Morzer
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Aqua-disco means a swimming pool with a gramophone.
Matt McIrvin
@matt: The Republicans right now can’t decide whether to try to outflank Biden on Ukraine and denounce him as weak on Russia, or to side with Russia.
Jay
@CaseyL:
nope.
West of the Cascades
@The Moar You Know: Doesn’t the Soyuz land in Kazakhstan?
opiejeanne
@Cacti: This could be said of people living in the Missouri Ozarks.
Roger Moore
@Matt McIrvin:
Don’t expect an intellectually consistent response. The main feature of everything they say will be that Biden is wrong, and they will happily contradict what they say elsewhere to stay with that message.
matt
@Matt McIrvin: They can talk about him being weak on Russia as he leads the group that defeats Russia, but I don’t think it will help them.
I am becoming increasingly optimistic that Putin will fall.
Imagine what happens then for the Republicans, for Trump, and for Biden.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Kay:
100% agree
Roger Moore
@opiejeanne:
Apparently, about 0.5% of Americans lack complete indoor plumbing. It would be good to make that 0%, but it’s quite a bit lower than the 20% they’re talking about in Russia.
Geminid
@Kent: Other accounts say Stalin did not lose it after the Germans invaded. The authors of The Deadly Embrace (1989?) describe him as depressed but still functioning fairly efficiently. They point out that the main source for the negative version was Kruschev’s famous speech to Party leaders in 1956 (?). Kruschev would know. He was one of Stalin’s intimates, a regular at small late night banquets held at Stalins dacha near Moscow. But as the authors of the history point out, in 1956 Kruschev had reasons to undercut Russians’ reverence for Stalin.
The Deadly Embrace is a fascinating book, based on extensive research. It covers the years between the the Czechoslovakia crisis to it’s focus, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of August, 1939 and then continues until June, 1941. One of the last events described is the radio speech Stalin gave to the Soviet nation, 11 days (I think) after Hitler attacked. This was an extroardinary experience for Stalin’s countrymen. Hardly any of them had ever heard his voice.
Kay
@Citizen Alan:
I was watching a documentary about Muhammad Ali and one of his early managers said Ali didn’t care about money- he wasn’t motivated by it. If you wanted to get him enthusiastic the promise of money wouldn’t do it. Then he said “well, of course tax rates were much, much higher then so he paid out a lot”
I love how we all just accept that there was this time where tax rates were progressive and then that…mysteriously ended and can never come back.
randy khan
I have to say I really like the gradual cranking up of sanctions and other steps to isolate Russia economically. It increases the pain in proportion to what Russia is doing in Ukraine, and also allows time for the allies to coordinate and remain on the same page. It’s a really good strategy.
Kay
Awesome job acting as an intermediary. Surrender! Now why didn’t anyone else think of that?
What a waste of time.
Matt McIrvin
@matt:
I am not–I think we’re being influenced by our side’s propaganda there, and we’re not talking to the people who are mainlining theirs. Totalitarian hermit kingdoms can last a long time.
Calouste
@Roger Moore: The only “intellectual” consistency conservatives have is that they are right and you are wrong. And reality needs to bend to that. (So they lie all the time.) If they were capable of critical self-reflection they wouldn’t be conservatives.
gene108
@Brachiator:
I agree the botched missile launch is unusual, but if the the Kargil war, in 1999, didn’t lead to escalation, I’m not sure what exactly would.
Back in 2019, the Pakistan and Indian Air Forces engaged each other, with Pakistan downing one Indian plane and capturing the pilot.
No escalation ensued.
Kent
Of course. But failing in his war aims is different from being overthrown from power. Putin might still be clinging to power in 5-10 years but if Russia is greatly reduced militarily and economically then he will still have lost.
Kent
And I think by FAR the American communities with the highest percentage that lack indoor plumbing are native communities, on reservations across the country and especially in Alaska where it is even more difficult due to climate and permafrost.
Which is a scandal all its own of course.
WaterGirl
@Lyrebird: I’ll take a look, thanks.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: Oh, I was talking about finding something from the current meeting. But i might look that up anyway.
WaterGirl
@patrick II:
Exactly this. It’s a heartbreakingly high cost for Ukraine, but I also understand the reasoning behind the decision.
opiejeanne
@Kent: I would add the Deep South to that, especially in black communities/neighborhoods, see Tunica.
Calouste
@Matt McIrvin: I’m not sure that totalitarian hermit kingdoms whose population had a taste of modern consumer goods and are now set back 30 or 40 years can last a long time.
Btw, British American Tobacco is pulling out of Russia, and Russia has one of the highest levels of smoking in the world. Smokers can become very irritable when they can’t get their fix.
Gravenstone
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Here come the purges…
eachother
Time to lavish pooty dictator with gifts. Recently resealed St. Patrick’s libation. Ex-lax infused Candy-gram. Long term sleep aid.
All the red lines being crossed have about filled in the field.
greenergood
Sorry, haven’t read all the posts – no time. but UK Channel 4 News tonight (NOT BBC) had an interview with a Chinese commentator/diplomat – my partner is not trusting of his provenance – but his comments made sense, critical of Russia’s behaviour. Mainly because Putin’s actions completely thwart China’s ‘soft power’ Belt-and-Road plans. I’m sure that China would be and has been capable of deploying Putin’s tactics (e.g., the treatment of Uyghyurs and Tibetans) but China’s current policy seems to be toning down the naked aggression, and Putin’s actions are putting China in a strange position. We’ll find out in the next few days where China will position itself in this mess.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@bjacques: No, because coal-rollers are blowing their smoke into the faces of non-consenting strangers.
Ruckus
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Teh stupid is long and deep in Europe.
Teh stupid is long and deep in people who think they are owed the world. vova is just one of the latest incarnations that have existed throughout history.
FIXITFY
WaterGirl
@Dorothy A. Winsor: @Gravenstone:
I have not been following that . Can someone explain a little bit?
O. Felix Culpa
@Ruckus:
Prezackly. See one DJT and attendant cultists.
Gravenstone
@WaterGirl: Just supposition on my part, but if Putin’s own private security org is raiding FSB units (successors to the KGB), then he likely seeks to punish (okay, blame) individuals there for the poor performance of Russian forces in Ukraine. I suspect maybe kangaroo courts if they’re lucky. Summary executions pour encourager les autres otherwise.
Geminid
@Geminid: The full title of the book I refer to is The Deadly Embrace: Hitler, Stalin and the Nazi-Soviet Pact 1939-41 (1988), by Anthoney Read and David Fisher. Well worth reading.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: @Geminid:
Wow, that was really great! Thank you both.
WaterGirl
@Gravenstone: Thanks for that. I wondered if he was trying to root out whoever had maybe shared information with the West before the invasion, because we seemed to know a lot about his plan.
edit: Not a great time for people in Putin’s orbit, I imagine.
trollhattan
@Kay: Are they so tolerant of Russia because of Russia’s enthusiasm for killing bothersome Muslims?
Captain C
@Calouste:
IIRC, back in the Gorbachev days, they were raising prices on and rationing any number of goods. Food, people grumbled. Even vodka, people grumbled. When they rationed cigarettes, there were riots. An entire nationwide nic fic.
Also, when I went to the USSR back in ’91 I brought a ton of Marlboros, both because I smoked at the time and to use as a substitute for currency (our professor was very firm that the going rate was one pack for a cab ride, not more). I traded a pack with a dude on the Leningrad subway for a pack of Kosmos, a leading Soviet cigarette brand. He definitely got the better of the deal; I tried one, and it’s what I imagine sucking on a car exhaust pipe tastes like.
Subsole
@Roger Moore:
Hell, the opening stages of Barbarossa were a catastrophic military failure that can be laid directly at Stalin’s feet.
One wonders what would have happened if Stalin had been held to his own standards…
Jeffro
Hey, I looked them up and they don’t ex…oh…wait…I gotcha now.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
What’s gonna happen to this guy? did he just violate the new law that bans the word war?
Geminid
@Subsole: Stalin’s gravest error was his purge of the Soviet Union’s officer corps in 1937. When I look at the Russian army’s halting performance in this war, I wonder if their generals are still under the shadow of the trial and execution of Marshal Tukhashevsky in June of 1937.
Not all the purged officers were executed. In The Deadly Embrace, Read and Fisher tell the story of one survivor’s experience. After Russia was invaded, the man was doing his daily physical labor in a gulag one day. Two days later he was back in a general’s uniform, on his way to command a unit at the front.
Carlo Graziani
@Gravenstone:
They could also be looking for whoever has been leaking all that intelligence on Putin’s intentions to the West. Or, of course, scapegoating someone for the leaks.
zhena gogolia
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Sure sounds as if he did.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: The pilot is very brave. Brave to say it in the first place, and especially brave to say it so publicly and proudly, encouraging everyone to take a stand.
I am not physically brave and I admire those who are.
artem1s
@WaterGirl:
Would have worked during W’s and Darth Cheney’s day too. Thankfully Darthlette isn’t in charge of making any of those decisions right now.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: Me too. We had another webinar with Ukrainians today. I had to have my hankie with me, but they weren’t crying.
WaterGirl
@artem1s: I have always loved Joe Biden and had voted for him in presidential primaries years ago, but I was so mad at him for running in 2020. He needed to step aside and let some younger folks have their turn.
But boy oh boy he has been what we needed at every turn. So grateful that he is our president.
Steady as she goes.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: They have a lot to teach us about love of country. And about being brave and steadfast.
Bill Arnold
@trollhattan:
Worse than that; an influential portion of Israel migrated from Russia with hardcore anti-Muslim prejudices. Not to mention wealth, both Russian organized criminals and not.
OTOH, Ukraine’s president is Jewish and so is Ukraine’s prime minister (don’t know how observant either is). Russian forces with the Russian Fascist Swastika (Z) are invading to depose a Jewish-led government. And this is common knowledge in Israel.
topclimber
@WaterGirl: Churchill homage by Biden works for me.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
a possibly interesting thread, I hope so, who knows? I don’t.
Miss Bianca
@WaterGirl: See, I’ve never an adherent to the “age MUST give way to youth” philosophy. Particularly not when it comes to a position where wisdom and experience are part of the skill set required for the job.
Unless the aged person in question is absolutely gaga. Then, sure.
Geminid
@Bill Arnold: Public sentiment in Israel is largely on the side of Ukraine. The government is compromised by it’s desire not to antagonize Russia because of the Russian airbase in northwest Syria. The Russians have effective control of the airspace over Syria with advanced SA-500 missiles.
The Israelis have carried out over 200 attacks in Syria since the Russians intervened in Syria in 2015. Mainly they bomb Iranian shipments of missiles to Lebanon. They don’t want Hezbollah doing to their cities what Russia is doing to Ukrainian cities. There are already well over 80,000 missiles stored in Hezbollah countroled villages in south Lebanon.
I would note that early in the war Ukrainian President Zelensky asked the Israeli Prime Minister to try and mediate the conflict, and after Bennett’s Moscow trip last weekend Zelensky expressed his appreciation publicly. Early this week Secretary Blinken similarly commended Israeli Foreign Minister Lapid on his country’s efforts when the two met in Estonia.
This charge against Bennett relates to a recent phone call between him and Zelensky, and was made by an unnamed Ukrainian official. Bennett’s office denies it.
LongHairedWeirdo
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Some complete moron thought that a “Texas style” Bloody Mary would be made with Dave’s Insanity Sauce, rather than just “a whole lot more Tabasco than called for.”
It’s a very distinctive taste, and it’s called “insanity sauce” because it’s made with (literally) weapon’s grade capsaicin. It’s not a good mixer for a Bloody Mary. They didn’t even add vinegar. Waste of good vodka, though they probably used cheap vodka anyway (why waste what no one will taste?).
eachother
Don’t tell me we don’t know exactly where that convoy went.
eachother
@Carlo Graziani: I’m going with overhearing. Tapping. Listening in. Like the NSA is in existence to do. Like they did when Tfg did his extortion, They knew who, transactions, dates and let the guy off. Butt Burr did it for loyalty? They had the evidence and didn’t let it out. Fucking republicans. They excused him and them in the commission of crimes. The bang of jail cells is the only sound that will exceed artillery explosions.
Ruckus
@Baud:
Could be that TFG is also a massive failure at presidenting, like pretty much everything else.
James E Powell
@Captain C:
I was there in June & July 1991. I took six cartons, only one of which was for me.
Sally
@dmsilev: Me too! Not superconductivity though. Am old enough to have done many manual transfers. So many.
Ruckus
@Wapiti:
One wonders how much the US economy might improve with better checks/taxation on our oligarchs and oligarch-corporate-persons.
I’m not certain the overall economy would get a lot bigger but it could become a lot more robust and likely a hell of a lot fairer for all but those now sucking out money without adding any value.
Ruckus
@Kay:
Joe should have an R after his name. Maybe he left the leg off the R when he registered.
The Lodger
@Kay: Gee, I’m almost beginning to believe the problem with Israeli politics isn’t Netanyahu.
Another Scott
@H.E.Wolf: +1
It’s the old “We must do something. This is something, therefore we must do it!” trap.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.