Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

No one could have predicted…

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Today’s GOP: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Consistently wrong since 2002

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

Happy indictment week to all who celebrate!

The words do not have to be perfect.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

T R E 4 5 O N

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

If you are still in the GOP, you are an extremist.

White supremacy is terrorism.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Update 19: The Ukrainians Are Holding, But They’re Taking a Pounding In the South and the East

War for Ukraine Update 19: The Ukrainians Are Holding, But They’re Taking a Pounding In the South and the East

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(Political cartoon by Yeva Hart)

I want to start tonight with a slightly different discussion than we’ve been having. I see a lot of people in the comments and on social media expressing their optimism that the Ukrainians can not only win this, but will win this. And, in some cases they’ll win soon as it seems that the wheels are coming off the Russian reinvasion of Ukraine. I don’t mean to harsh anyone’s mellow, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I’m cautiously optimistic based on what we’ve seen over the past two weeks, especially as in central Ukraine they immediately shifted to an irregular and unconventional warfare strategy. However, a lot of the coverage and commentary comes with its own biases. One of the major biases is where in Ukraine the coverage – news reporting and commentary – is focused. A lot of it has been focused on Kyiv and the defense of Kyiv. This makes sense. As I covered in last night’s update, Kyiv is both the geographically strategic center of gravity and the informational/conceptual/contextual/psychological center of gravity for Putin. He has to take it. So the longer its defenders are able to hold out, the better off it is for Ukraine and the worse off it is for Putin. Another reason a lot of the coverage is on Kyiv is it is a great story. Both for Ukraine’s government as it fights an informational war and for the western media to make us feel better that what our government’s are doing is really feasible, acceptable, and suitable.

The story has everything. An amateur accidental president whose government had a 25% favorable rating and was only semi-functional who is now the George Washington of Ukraine and a shining example to the rest of the world of what real leadership is and should be. It has outgunned defenders undertaking an irregular defense. It has an exceedingly long and exceedingly exposed convoy of Russian invaders being picked off a bit at a time. It has video of the defenders towing away Russian equipment.

But, the defense of Kyiv, no matter how important it is, and it is VERY IMPORTANT, is not the war. It is one part of it. In the south and east of Ukraine the Russians are much more effective. Some of this is because they have far less ground to cover which shortens their supply lines and doesn’t leave them exposed. Some of this is that since the Ukrainians themselves know that Kyiv must hold, they planned to make their stand in central Ukraine. Sacrificing, for now, key cities and territories in the south and the east. This map from the British Ministry of Defense demonstrates this reality:

 

If you look to the north in the center of the map, you see the attempted and currently stalled attempt to get to Kyiv and take it. The Russians have exceeded their abilities to resupply in these areas. And the Ukrainians are picking them apart where they’re exposed and holding them off in the towns, suburbs, and bedroom communities to the north, west, and east of Kyiv. But if you look to the south and to the east, you see far more territory taken. This is because the areas being taken are adjacent to what Putin scarfed up in 2014: Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Mariupol, Melitopol, and Kherson are within these occupied areas in south and east Ukraine. Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia are just outside them with Dnipro a little farther out still. In the northeast you can see Kharkiv and Sumy in the same situation. All of these cities and towns have either suffered significant attacks and/or been occupied. In the case of Mariupol we are watching in real time a city of over 400,000 people being starved to death. Putin is making Mariupol an abject lesson for the rest of Ukraine and the world.

This reporting just reinforces my concerns:

Odesa is just to the east of Moldova and Putin dearly wants it and the territory to its east and south so he can completely cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea.

Over the past several days, Putin has used his long range artillery and his fighter bombers to attack targets in the west of Ukraine: Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk among others. These strikes are really less about causing lots of damage and more about terrorizing the Ukrainians and sending the US and NATO a message. Specifically, that Putin can reach out and touch the cars and trains bringing the humanitarian aid and the military resupply into Ukraine from Poland.

As I’ve written, I’m cautiously optimistic. And I am willing to state unequivocally that if Putin somehow manages to take Kyiv or even all of Ukraine, he’s not going to be able to hold it. And while he holds it, he is going to have a very, very, very bad time. But at the same time, we have to be realistic about how things are going. They’re going well in central Ukraine. By and large western Ukraine is comparatively safe and stable. In significant chunks of southern and eastern Ukraine things are very bad to terrible. Anyone who tells you they know how this ends right now is not someone to take seriously.

Let’s get to the update part of the update after the jump.

As I was saying before the jump, here’s President Zelenskyy, who has definitely risen to the occasion:

I spent several years arguing with people at the US Army Combined Arms Center that you can’t train leadership qualities like character and integrity. You can identify people with them, you can nurture those people, and you can mentor them, but you can’t teach those qualities or train them. They are either there or they aren’t. They didn’t get it then and too many there and in other places still don’t get it now. Zelenskyy is the poster person for my argument. He has risen to the occasion as have so many other Ukrainians.

I hope karma is in play here!

Because if there is anyone deserving of being blowed up real good it’s this asshole!

As I write this we’re about two hours from dawn in Ukraine and the air raid sirens have once again been sounded!

As we’ve seen the last several nights, the Russians start their bombardments within three hours of dawn.

Here’s some video of the strike on the training center outside Lviv last night:

If you were wondering what the Russians are being told is going on in Ukraine this is it:

And this:

And a healthy serving of Tucker!

Why, you may ask, is Tucker Carlson all over Russian news and commentary shows? The answer is provided by David Corn at Mother Jones.

On March 3, as Russian military forces bombed Ukrainian cities as part of Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of his neighbor, the Kremlin sent out talking points to state-friendly media outlets with a request: Use more Tucker Carlson.

“It is essential to use as much as possible fragments of broadcasts of the popular Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who sharply criticizes the actions of the United States [and] NATO, their negative role in unleashing the conflict in Ukraine, [and] the defiantly provocative behavior from the leadership of the Western countries and NATO towards the Russian Federation and towards President Putin, personally,” advises the 12-page document written in Russian. It sums up Carlson’s position: “Russia is only protecting its interests and security.” The memo includes a quote from Carlson: “And how would the US behave if such a situation developed in neighboring Mexico or Canada?”

The document—titled “For Media and Commentators (recommendations for coverage of events as of 03.03)”—was produced, according to its metadata, at a Russian government agency called the Department of Information and Telecommunications Support, which is part of the Russian security apparatus. It was provided to Mother Jones by a contributor to a national Russian media outlet who asked not to be identified. The source said memos like this one have been regularly sent by Putin’s administration to media organizations during the war. Independent media outlets in Russia have been forced to shut down since the start of the conflict.

The March 3 document opens with top-line themes the Kremlin wanted Russian media to spread: The Russian invasion is “preventing the possibility of nuclear strikes on its territory”; Ukraine has a history of nationalism (that presumably threatens Russia); the Russian military operation is proceeding as planned; Putin is protecting all Russians; the “losing” Ukrainian army is shelling residential areas of eastern Ukraine controlled by Russia; foreign mercenaries are arriving in Ukraine; Europe “is facing more and more problems” because of its own sanctions; and there will be “danger and possible legal consequences” for those in Russia who protest the war. The document notes that it is “necessary to continue quoting” Putin. It claims that the “hysteria of the West had reached the inexplicable level” of people calling for killing dogs and cats from Russia and asks, “Today they call for the killing of animals from Russia. Tomorrow, will they call for killing people from Russia?”

Much more at the link above. Also, none of the top-line themes the Kremlin wants the Russian media to spread are true. With the possible exception that Ukraine has a history of nationalism, if nationalism means that Ukrainians believe that Ukraine is a distinct nation-state with it’s own history, language, and culture. That ‘s all true, but I don’t think it is what the Russian guidance is referring too.

The Chinese state media has decided to emulate Russian state media:

Tucker Carlson, Fox News’s #1 most viewed host is also #1 with the state news media of Russia and the People’s Republic of China. Mazel Tov!

As I mentioned in the Friday update, when we transmit contradictory strategic communication, it provides an opening for the Russians:

The Russians are intensifying their occupation and have scarfed up another mayor:

In Melitipol they’ve installed a quisling:

She seems nice.

Also:

Bruce Willis I See Dead People GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

Cause once the Ukrainians get their hands on her, she does not have long to live!

Mykolaiv is still getting pounded!

Mariupol is still besieged, being starved out, and being hammered:

A status update from Ukraine’s eastern front:

This is at least the second cathedral/church/monastery I’ve seen targeted by the Russians:

There was reporting that the Russians also targeted the Suleiman the Magnificent Mosque in Ukraine, which was serving as a shelter for displaced Ukrainians. However, the waqf, the Islamic endowment that manages the mosque, has indicated that the mosque has not been targeted.

Also in the east of Ukraine, Sveredonetsk is also being hammered!

You all know what to do!

Despite being occupied, the citizens of Kherson are not capitulating!

Your daily bayraktar:

Outgoing!

The Financial Times has reporting that Russia has asked the PRC for military help in Ukraine. The headline is a lot more incendiary than the actual reporting and I’m going to hold off till after the US-China meetings tomorrow to dive into it because I want to see what happens and what may change from what FT is reporting.

During World War II female Russian fighter pilots did significant damage to the Luftwaffe, as well as to NAZI ground forces. The NAZIs called them the nachthexen. The Ukrainians are creating their own ground force based equivalent:

And we’ll end with this fierce eyed warrior. A Kyiven Valkyrie indeed!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

82Comments

  1. 1.

    BR

    freedom
    dignity
    respect
    human rights
    rule of law
    solidarity
    self-organization
    social responsibility
    equality
    freedom of speech
    peaceful protest
    transparency
    accountability
    religious freedom
    multiculturalism
    international law
    *shortlist of what we stand for#StandWithUkraine— Ukraine / Україна (@Ukraine) March 6, 2022

    I haven’t commented in ages but thought this tweet from Ukraine’s official feed sums it up. This is what is at stake, and it seems quaint because it’s almost like “nobody believes in that anymore”. But they recognize that every single one of those things matters and it’s what’s at stake globally. The sooner the domestic debate turns to this list and holds it up as an example of what they’re fighting for and what we believe in, the better we’ll all be. Because we’re at a rare moment where the position of what Ukraine is fighting for is unquestioned, and folks need to be reminded what that really is (this list).

  3. 3.

    Shalimar

    The bullshit arguments Russia makes about Ukraine sound a little like the arguments neo-cons make about Iran.

  4. 4.

    eddie blake

    adam, the russians look like they’re losing a fuckton of tanks to nlaw and javelin fire. do they not have  a copy of the israeli trophy system or a home-grown version?

    eta- looks like from the footage their reactive armor is not working at all.

  6. 6.

    Ascap_scab

    Questions.

    We know Putin committed ~120k troops (plus tanks and other mechanized) on the border prior to the invasion, now that all that has been deployed, has he resupplied anything other than shells and ammo?

    At current force depletion rates, how long can the Russian army continue without food, fuel, resupply, or assistance from other countries?

  7. 7.

    NotMax

    WTF?

    A military drone that apparently flew all the way from the Ukrainian war zone over three European NATO-member states before crashing in an urban zone of the Croatian capital was armed with an explosive device, Croatia’s defense minister said Sunday.

    The Soviet-made aircraft crossed Romania and Hungary before entering Croatia, slamming into a field near a student dormitory late Thursday. About 40 parked cars were damaged in the large explosion, but no one was injured.

    “Traces of explosives and clues suggesting that this was not a reconnaissance aircraft were found. We found parts of an air bomb,” Croatian Defense Minister Mario Banozic said at the crash site.

    He said that this further raises a question about whether the drone belonged to Russia or Ukraine.

    “There are elements that indicated it could have come from both,” he said.

    Air crash investigators have pulled most of the drone’s remaining parts from a large crater it created on impact, including a partly damaged black box that should reveal the drone’s flight path. Source

  8. 8.

    Tom Levenson

    Hey Adam,

    1: What would give the Ukraine Army a useful counter-battery capacity?

    2: How much of the artillery/rocketry that is being used as such terror weaponry is staged inside Ukraine, and how much in Russia or Belorus? As in, even if Ukraine gets a counter-artillery capacity, would they have to extend the war zone into Russia? And if so, what complications does that produce. (Note, I’m not saying they don’t have the right to go after Russian war fighting wherever it launches from, just that it would be…tricky.)

  9. 9.

    different-church-lady

    Okay, so, fuck it: World War III. I’m sick of waiting for the meteor anyway.

  10. 10.

    West of the Rockies

    Kidnapping orphans?  I mean, that’s straight out of Dickens!

    I hope those outgoing rounds took out a few hundred soulless soldiers.

  11. 11.

    Kalakal

    @eddie blake: NLAWS and Javelin have a nasty trick whereby they can  attack from above the vehicle. The armor there is much thinner and is pretty useless against them even when covered with a layer of reactive armor.

  12. 12.

    Ohio Mom

    This is hardly an area of expertise for me so I am more then willing to be corrected. As committed and fierce as the Ukrainians are, and as almost comically incompetent as the Russians are, does that mean anything when the Russians are ruthlessly bombing Ukraine into dust?

    That seems to be their superpower, unadulterated ruthlessness. It’s looking to me like that is more than making up for their bumbling on the ground.

  14. 14.

    debbie

    John Mearsheimer’s back and he’s blaming the U.S. From the intro to the interview:

    For years, Mearsheimer has argued that the U.S., in pushing to expand nato eastward and establishing friendly relations with Ukraine, has increased the likelihood of war between nuclear-armed powers and laid the groundwork for Vladimir Putin’s aggressive position toward Ukraine. Indeed, in 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea, Mearsheimer wrote that “the United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for this crisis.”

  15. 15.

    BeautifulPlumage

    Thanks for the update, Adam. It looks like the tweets about the Russian- installed quisling is embedded twice.

    I look forward to your take on the Chinese news.

  17. 17.

    NotMax

    @Ohio Mom

    Russian armaments stockpiles are extensive, but not limitless. Too, ongoing supply chain problems are universal and finding hard cash in a crumbling economy to pay for new restocks are factors to be taken into consideration.

  19. 19.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @debbie:

    Maybe somebody should ask Mearsheimer why countries like Ukriane have wanted to join NATO and the Baltic states already have

  20. 20.

    Adam L Silverman

    @A Good Woman: He’s who he claims to be. I don’t know him. I agree with some of his analysis. Since I’m not thrilled with the methodology that ISW uses for their maps, which is why I don’t use them here. Whether that is effecting his analysis is something I can’t say.

  22. 22.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Tom Levenson: Omnes will need to answer the first question, he’s the artillerist. As to the second, if I remember correctly, the long range Russian artillery is located in Russia and Belarus.

  23. 23.

    eddie blake

    @Kalakal:  sorry. my comment got sliced bc my computer decided to have a brain fart.

    anyway. yeah. the thing is, reactive armor was supposed to be the poor-man’s chobham. it doesn’t look like it’s viable at ALL. i’m just baffled that they haven’t fielded a version of the trophy.

  24. 24.

    Kalakal

    @eddie blake: Sorry, didn’t pick up on that. Their current one is called ( I think) Arena. Looks like it doesn’t work, is not well serviced, not fitted to many vehicles, they’re running low on countermeasures, all of the above

  26. 26.

    Tom Levenson

    @Adam L Silverman: Clear.

    I wonder if what the Ukrainian military wants and we won’t give isn’t the long range counter battery stuff more than air power.

    But wonder is all I’m going to do, as this is wholly out of my competence.

  27. 27.

    PJ

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): For Mearsheimer, it is only acceptable for Great Powers (US, Russia, China) to have agency, and all other countries must simply suffer whatever the Great Powers want to do to them.  If the action of one Great Power towards a non-Great Power (like NATO admitting former Eastern Bloc countries) angers another Great Power, it is the fault of the first Great Power if the second Great Power decides to destroy a non-aligned neighboring country.  It is probably killing Mearsheimer right now that a non-Great Power like Ukraine is still holding off a Great Power like Russia, and may lead to that Great Power’s undoing.

  28. 28.

    NotMax

    @NotMax

    I question the article’s use of “Soviet-made.” Anything Soviet would be, at best, the most rudimentary of what falls under the umbrella of drone tech, not to mention over thirty years old.

  33. 33.

    JWR

    Adam, I haven’t thanked you yet, so Thank You! These updates are truly invaluable. As far as optimistic takes, Ian Masters podcast this morning was cautiously optimistic, especially the interview with Malcolm Nance.

    Background Briefing: March 13, 2022

    A Moscow-Based Defense Analyst on How the Ukrainians Are Winning So Far
    With Dr. Pavel Felgenhauer

    An Assessment of the Military Situation From an Analyst Who Surveyed the Terrain
    With Malcolm Nance

    A Perspective From a U.S.A.F. Nuclear Missile Operator on Putin’s Possible Use of WMD’s
    With Cole Smith

    The first interview was conducted over a bad phone connection, so listen good. Now to read the rest of the day’s update.

  35. 35.

    Carlo Graziani

    What I would really like to see is some kind of rough statistical census of the types of ordnance striking Ukrainian cities, broken down by region, to get an idea of what kind of range/weapon type is most needed to get the most benefit.For example, I have the impression from some things I’ve seen that while early in the war the Russians fired some high-value, high-accuracy surface-based ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, those sorts of systems are expensive and hard to replace, and stupid to use for terror missions against populations rather than against military targets, whereas the short-range (30 km) BM-21 Grads like the Ukrainian systems in the video linked above are also a Russian workhorse (this is Wikipedia “knowledge” not my own expertise). If most of the stuff falling on Eastern/Southern cities are Grad-type stuff, then I would assume that a good deal of the equipment pouring across the border is similar Grads from ex-Warsaw Pact nation inventory, and perhaps the counter-battery plan is to set up artillery duels that prevent the Russian battalions from targeting cities.
    ​​​​​
    None of this would be helpful for the longer-range stuff striking Western Ukraine.
    ​​​​​
    I assume that is also being pondered.In my opinion, the US government is determined to do everything in its power to ensure that the invasion will fail. The media can’t see the moves, but it doesn’t follow from this that the media’s “Biden administration is too cautious” narrative is correct.​​​​​

  36. 36.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Tom Levenson: @Adam L Silverman:  Effective counter battery fire requires almost instantaneous identification of where the rounds came from. Appropriate radar systems can do that. Then you need to be able to put round on that that target within a minute or so of it being identified. Artillery doesn’t stay in place very long when it is firing.​
     

    ETA: I won’t pretend to know what capabilities Ukraine has along these lines.

  37. 37.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Also, my clever clever hot take is that the Russians are definitely losing this war, but the Ukrainians aren’t yet winning.

  38. 38.

    Emma from Miami

    Adam. I join everyone that has thanked you for your work. Also every commenter that has enough expertise to explain things about weapons and strategies that I know nothing about.

    Having said that, can I ask a meta question? It seems to me that we will live forever under nuclear blackmail. Ultimately we will accept anything anyone with nuclear weapons does because we’re terrified of destroying large swaths of the planet. What is the use of millions of Ukrainians dying if ultimately we will accept a fait accompli to keep Putin (or the next dictator, and the next, and the next) from setting off the nukes?

    All I can say is, I am for the first time in my life happy to have no hostages to fortune.

  40. 40.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Omnes Omnibus: I think — I would really love it if some actual experts were around to chime in — that a lot of this fire is coming from cheap truck-mounted wide-area workhorse systems, like the ones linked in the video, the BM-21 Grads. The Wikipedia page on those is at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-21_Grad.

    Those systems have a 30km range. In principle, it seems to me you could actually set up a pretty neat ambush. Russian battalion targets city at known map square. Ukrainian battallion sets up, send forward spotter with high-power binoculars, map, radio to find Russian battalion and radio in their position. Area bombardment of Russian battalion follows, which can only run away, because they have no idea of location of Ukrainian battallion.  At this point, either the Russian artillery accepts a new mission of hunting Ukrainian artillery — and giving up shelling cities — or accepts that it’s going to be hunted when it fires on a city, presumably lowering its firing rate.

  41. 41.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @eddie blake: Depending on type of gun, etc., there is no reason to expect that a gun would still be in its firing position more than a couple of minutes after it fires.  To be honest. a lot of counter battery fire succeeds in suppressing the other artillery units’ ability to fire by keeping them moving rather than firing.

  42. 42.

    FelonyGovt

    Adam, thank you so much for these nightly updates. It’s so valuable having solid information from someone who knows what he’s talking about, as compared with all the insta-pundits on Twitter.

  43. 43.

    Calouste

    @Emma from Miami: It’s the people around Putin (and other dictators) who are scared of the mutual assured destruction that might stop him. There are enough shelters for Putin and his entourage to survive that. But his generals and his bodyguards have family and friends that won’t survive, but that will survive a non-nuclear conflict even if Putin loses.

  44. 44.

    Idus Martiae

    @eddie blake: ​
    @Kalakal: ​
    re: reactive armor

    Also a two-stage warhead where a smallish charge first clears off the reactive armor before the main one goes off to pierce the underlying armor now exposed; reactive armor is essentially blocks of explosive atop the main armor which goes off on impact to counteract the hit.

  45. 45.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Emma from Miami: That is the trap we’re in now. We’re not dealing with mutually assured destruction ensuring that only conventional weapons will be used because no one will risk using their nukes. We’re in a world where one state and specifically one state’s leader is using his nukes to freeze everyone else’s decision making at a threshold below the use of conventional weapons and kinetic action/response with them. If Putin is successful, as in he is able to both find a face saving way out of Ukraine and to remain in power, every other authoritarian leader and aspiring authoritarian leader will have learned that this is how you defeat the US and NATO. That you can scare them into inaction. That is a far, far, far more dangerous world than we have been living in.

  48. 48.

    Ivan X

    @Emma from Miami: I think, speaking as one dope who’s not an expert on Russia or warfare, that there’s been a calculus made that we absolutely don’t want to be in a war with Russia, maybe because of nukes, but maybe because we just don’t want to be in a war, period; it’s not something Americans have much appetite for after the neverending, unvictorious shitshows of Iraq and Afghanistan. No one wants to see Ukraine fall, but if the alternative is a potentially protracted war, I think the administration will accept the tragedy of a subsumed Ukraine with Russia permanently marginalized as a pariah state, with no realistic option to expand into NATO countries. TLDR I’m not convinced we’d have boots in the ground even if Russia didn’t have nukes.

  49. 49.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I think this is the 1st time I have seen a Fox News segment on China Central Television, even if it is on CCTV13 (which is a kind of CNN Headline New equivalent). Of course, Fox New segments (including Tucker Carlson himself) often make news on Chinese social media & blogs, mostly due to their attempts to flame Sinophobia. Some times they are mentioned as “evidence” of anti-Biden sentiments in the US. I have had to explain to some people I encounter in China that Fox New should never be taken seriously, nothing it says can ever be taken at face value, it is never acting in good faith. I had to draw parallels between Fox News & Falun Gong run media (such as Epoch Times) to get them to understand.

    As for reports of China considering material aid to Russia, it is difficult for me to envision any circumstance where China might stick its neck out that far. Maybe if the aid is entirely civilian/humanitarian in nature, such as what the China Red Cross has donated to the Ukrainian Red Cross. Providing any materials that Russian might be able to use in Ukraine would signal the end of the awkward straddling that China has been doing wrt the Ukraine crisis, & unequivocally tie China to Putin. No other straddling power (such as India or Brazil) have been giving material aid to Russia, & Chinese financial institutions have been complying w/ the sanctions in order to avoid secondary sanctions on themselves. & to what end? No amount of aid China can provide will materially change the outcome on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    The NYT reporting on the subject states that the US officials did not disclose whether China responded to the Russian request. The fact that Russia had to ask speaks volumes about the poor state of its conventional forces. In theory, Russia should still have 10s of thousands of tanks, armored vehicles & artillery pieces in storage, following Soviet practice, & plenty of conscripts to man them. However, I think it has been obvious over the past decade that China has caught up and outstripped Russia in most aspects of military hardware, such as naval surface warships, combat aircraft, wheeled & tracked armored vehicles (possibly even tanks), armed UAVs, smart munitions (air & ground launched), avionics/electronics, & C4ISR; often in development, certainly in production & operationalization. The only areas Russia retains an obvious advantage over China is nuclear submarines & intercontinental ballistic missiles. I have read commentary from US military types speaking in awe of Russia’s demonstrated full-spectrum electronic warfare capabilities in Syria, but it seems to be entirely missing Ukraine.

  51. 51.

    Egorelick

    @Mallard Filmore: what can they do with them? Not being flip, but you can’t fly them outside Russia and I doubt there’s a shortage of this type of aircraft needed for internal use.

  54. 54.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Egorelick: I’ll be flip.  They can fly to Chinese cities, for as long as their supply of spare parts holds up.  China has a lot of Boeing and Airbus planes, maybe they can get maintenance done there.

    China is trying to build a commercial airplane industry but certifications seem to be at least a year away.  The video I saw about their first aircraft said the logistics of getting all the right parts to the factory at the right time are quite difficult so cranking out gobs of new China built 737 sized aircraft will not be soon.

  60. 60.

    Idus Martiae

    It seems that the Russian plan now is to take the civilian population hostage to extort a harsh peace treaty, probably along the lines of Ukraine staying out of NATO (and EU) and formally ceding area to Russia (Donbas, Crimea + land connection to it at least; returning (some of) the newly occupied area is a bargaining chip as well). A partial annexation would mean less need for occupying troops especially as only the pro-Russian part of the population would likely remain while the rest would migrate to what remains of Ukraine.

  63. 63.

    cazador

    Thank you, Adam, for these nightly updates, they are so informative and necessary but I can imagine also very depressing at some point. Thank you for what you are doing. It is much appreciated.

    “You can’t train leadership qualities like character and integrity. You can identify people with them, you can nurture those people, and you can mentor them, but you can’t teach those qualities or train them. They are either there or they aren’t.” I want to put this quote on a bumper sticker. Or a t-shirt. Maybe both.

  64. 64.

    Winston

    If I were wargaming this, I would start by attacking their subs. Simultaneously nuking their land based launch sites. Send Nato ground forces thru Ukraine and Belarus and surround Moscow.

  65. 65.

    Jinchi

    @Winston:  If I were wargaming this, I would start by attacking their subs. Simultaneously nuking their land based launch sites.

    In your war games, does Russia have satellites that can see our nuclear launch? Because it seems like the whole ‘ground forces to surround Moscow’ operation is pointless after the ‘start a nuclear war’ part.

  66. 66.

    Winston

    @Jinchi: I am imagining that eliminating 100M deaths will be enough for the citizens of Moscow to bring Putin out, tarred and feathered on a rail.

  67. 67.

    Brantl

    @Winston: You can imagine a lot of things, but the fact that you imagine them, doesn’t do anything to make them real, thank dog.

  68. 68.

    Jinchi

    @Winston: So you’re assuming that Russia wouldn’t be able to launch any of it’s thousands of nuclear weapons? Nuclear exchanges happen on the scale of minutes. The war will be long over before any troops move into Moscow.

  69. 69.

    Geminid

    A bit of news about the stalled JCPOA talks: an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman told reporters that the talks were on a pause, and that there were still some details that the Iranian and U.S. negotiators had not yet resolved. Also the spokesman said the Iranian Foreign Minister would fly to Moscow and meet with Russian officials Tuesday regarding the JCPOA.      From the Jerusalem Post.

  70. 70.

    Ishiyama

    I am ignorant of war, but: counterstrokes take time to set up. I think this might be being considered: Keep the Russian army tied down in Ukraine until mid-summer. Then, simultaneously isolate them with strikes on their rails and roads, while attacking from the Black Sea (with Turkey’s assent). Follow up quickly with another attack from the Baltic, seizing St. Petersburg and threatening Moscow. Simultaneously, sponsor and support rebellions wherever Russia’s hold can be threatened by local forces. If there is a wild card in my speculations, it is my thinking about advanced weapons systems that have been kept under wraps for surprise use. E.g, has DARPA got usable rail guns yet?

  71. 71.

    egorelick

    What are the real Russian losses in Ukraine? There were a lot of things going on that were causing chaos in 1968, but it was the worst year of the Vietnam War with just under 17,000 killed in action. Russia (if Ukraine is to be believed) may lose that many soldiers in just one month. Don’t know about the Korean War for sure, but I think 1968 might have been the worse year for the US in the post-WW2 era. Is there a limit for Russians or does the authoritarian nature of the government mean that the casualties can go on at this rate and not be a consideration independent of their military impact?

  72. 72.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: The JCPOA talks are on hold because of objections that Russia made nine days ago, regarding their own sanctions.

    When Russia attacked Ukraine there were hopes that a new JCPOA would not be affected, and the new Russian demands were unexpected. Reports are that the Iranians were surprised and had not been informed in advance of the Russian announcement..

  73. 73.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    @Adam L Silverman: I don’t know current Ukrainian or Russian systems though

    I find it reassuring nonetheless.

    I thought that truck-mounted rocket battalion firing video was an eye-opener. There is so much rocket ordnance pouring into Ukrainian cities, and it’s coming in so scattershot, that it could easily be mostly cheap stuff, rather than expensive, long-range, precision-targeted munitions. Those Grads fit the bill. 

    They were also as common as AK-47s (ruble-for-ruble) in Warsaw Pact arsenals, if Wikipedia is to be believed, including  in Polland. So quite possibly, while media underwear was bunching over Polish Mig 29s, Polish Grads were quietly making the trip over the border.

    Speculation and tea-leaf reading. I would still very much like an actual expert census of inbound rocket sources, if at all possible broken out by geographic zone.

  74. 74.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: The Iranians seem to want the new JCPOA, and the Foreign Minister probably hopes to help resolve the new impasse while in Moscow. I expect that in Vienna the Chinese and the “E-3,” that is the British, French and German delegates, are also trying to find a way forward.

    Those, the Iranian, and the Russian delegations are based at the grand Palais Coburg, and that is where the talks have been held. Since the Iranians refuse to meet with U.S. officials because of what they consider unjust sanctions against them, the U.S. delegation stays at another hotel, and confers with the non-Iranian negotiators there.

  75. 75.

    Carlo Graziani

    On a lighter note:  A friend in Italy sent a joke making the rounds.

    Putin dies suddenly of “natural causes”, and is quite naturally routed directly to Hell. After a decade or so, however, he scores a Good Behavior day pass, and reappears in Moscow incognito. He stops in a bar for an aperitif. Hoping to catch up on current events, ha asks the bartender “Excuse me friend, could you answer a geography question for me? Is Donbas ours?”

    “Da, ours,” confirms the bartender.

    Pleased, Putin asks “Oh! And what about Crimea?”

    “Ours as well.”

    Putin is starting to glow with pride. “And Kiev?”

    “Also ours,” the bartender replies, matter-of-factly.

    “So, it was all worth it!” Putin thinks to himself with satisfaction. He says to the bartender “Thank you, friend. What do I owe you for the drink?”

    “5 Euro.”

  77. 77.

    Carlo Graziani

    I meant to comment — and push back a little — on this, last night, but it was late:

    Every time the U.S. says “We will defend every inch of NATO territory,” Russia hears, “Take the rest.” One of many examples: #Russia‘s state TV host Vladimir Soloviev said today, “As I understand it, Moldova, Georgia—whatever isn’t NATO, go right ahead.”

    —- Julia Davis

    I understand what the concern is, but I also believe that there are some unexamined assumptions that are worth bringing to light here, because in my opinion they distort the analysis.

    The historical model for this comment is almost certainly US Secretary of State Dean Acheson’s 1950 speech failing to include the Republic of Korea in the US “Defensive Perimeter”, sometimes cited as green-lighting the Communist invasion and touching off the Korean War.  That episode has informed a lot of theory on strategic communication ever since. However, I don’t think it provides a valid model in this case, because of a second unexamined assumption: the assimilation of Soviet military power with Russian military power.

    I know that many people realize consciously that the Russian military and the Soviet military are nothing alike, but by the way that people talk and react about potential Russian military moves, I see evidence for the proposition that the difference has not really sunk in for a lot of folks. So I think it is worth reiterating: the combat power that the Soviet Union was capable of generating was larger by at least an order of magnitude from what Russia can generate today.

    The Soviet Union, for all its self-inflicted civil misery, ran its economy on the basis of nearly full war mobilization for nearly its entire 74-year history. That is to say, military industry had first-priority call on all industrial resources, and manpower (or human resources, as we say today) deferred to 2-year universal military training. As a consequence, the Soviets were a fearsome enemy even without accounting for their nuclear arsenal, and were certainly capable of mounting major conventional military challenges in widely-separate theaters, concurrently, without breaking much of a sweat.

    The Russian military is a very different sort of enterprise. In size and capability, it is reckoned roughly equivalent to the Armed Forces of Turkey. It is far inferior to NATO as a whole, and its General Staff has not planned for a conflict against NATO as a high-probability war plan, according to resources that I have read in the past few months, because such a conflict would have been out-of-scope for their ambition and mission.

    Moreover, most of their Army is currently being ground into sausage in the Ukraine project. They are expending far more equipment, ordnance, personnel, and other materiel than they expected, let alone planned for. Russia has been building that Army up since it began a reform and re-equip program in 2008. It’s a nation which in the current fiscal year had a GDP between Brazil’s and South Korea’s, and at that rate could not expect to rebuild the capabilities it has lost in Ukraine for another adventure in, say, Moldova (much less a NATO ally such as Lithuania, or Poland) for years.

    But it doesn’t even have that replacement rate any more. It’s had nearly a trillion dollars of state wealth frozen by foreign central bank authorities. Essential industrial inputs are unavailable due to draconian export controls. Banking is practically being replaced by barter. Russia’s ability to convert its mineral wealth to ready cash is seriously constrained, and even its “friendly” partners, such as China, are buying its oil at fire-sale discounts. Next year, Russia’s GDP could easily rank it alongside Indonesia, or lower.  Russia isn’t getting its wasted Army back any time soon.

    So I don’t want to be complacent, or pretend the threat is zero, from a coterie of people around a failing leader who have obviously proven to be very bad at calculating their own country’s objective interests. But I do think that the “Acheson Messaging” problem is, in this case, very much overstated.

  78. 78.

    Cameron

    @debbie: This isn’t new, and it’s not just Mearsheimer.  George Kennan, Mr. Cold War, was one of many US foreign service people warning about NATO expansion back in the ’90s.  Hell, even our current CIA head warned Condoleeza Rice about it way back when.  That’s no excuse for the war on Ukraine, though.  The people of Ukraine are paying a horrible price for decisions they had no say in.

  79. 79.

    wetzel

    Wild Fields

    V1
    Slaves were hunted for hundreds of years in the wild fields of Ukraine
    Tribes of nomads, peasants and villagers, driven by Kublai Khan
    Serfs escaping from Moscow, hunted like dogs and made slaves
    Hunted by the Nogol Horde in the wild fields south of Kiev

    Ch
    At the end of humanity
    At the end of sanity
    How can Ukraine endure?
    I’ve got no knowledge
    But the Bible and college
    And having three kids of my own
    The children get lost
    In the wild fields
    Who will bring them home?

    V2
    Holodomor means death by hunger, at the station always a crowd
    Mothers offering icons and linen, prayers for a loaf of bread
    A mother lifts up her precious baby, pitiful and terrified
    With limbs little sticks and pot belly and a lolling skeleton head

    Ch

    Bridge
    Look at how history repeats itself
    As predictable as the weather
    The emporer of Asia murders Ukraine
    To keep his Empire together
    He’s not Joseph Stalin, and he’s not Kublai Khan
    He’s not even Vladimir the Great
    Ukraine will take Vladimir Putin down
    You’ll crash his stuka and make him your suka
    And leave him there on the ground

  81. 81.

    EggOne

    I am beginning to wonder if Putin is now considering a fall back position in which an armistice is signed that would allow the Zelensky government to remain in power and in control of western Ukraine (including a severely damaged Kyiv), but that also preserves Russian gains in the East (possibly including Odessa) while also not requiring the Ukrainian government to officially recognize those gains. Russia would then have de facto control of those areas and could consolidate power while hoping for a return of Trump to the White House. This would hold the promise of a gradual (if not full) legitimization of the post Bellum status quo. Russia would also probably dangle the possibility of a full pull out as an incentive to keep Ukraine out of NATO and get sanctions lifted (although this will mainly be a ruse). In the mean time he will have achieved most of what he wanted and will be able to end hostilities (if only temporarily) while saving face for having not “lost” the war.

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