ICYMI:
Former President Barack Obama has tested positive for the coronavirus. “I’ve had a scratchy throat for a couple days, but am feeling fine otherwise,” he tweeted. He says his wife, Michelle, tested negative, and that both are grateful to be vaccinated. https://t.co/vECiBmh1zA
— The Associated Press (@AP) March 13, 2022
Lots of comments out there on this clip from Bourla, Pfizer CEO. He says vaccine no good vs. infection, very good against hospitalization and death, but even then protection doesn't last. Says 4th dose will be needed..then annually. https://t.co/VUGegbHbRy
— Antonio Regalado (@antonioregalado) March 13, 2022
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China has reported more local symptomatic COVID-19 cases so far this year than it recorded in all of 2021, as the highly transmissible Omicron variant triggers outbreaks from Shanghai to Shenzhen. https://t.co/kGT9clr7LD
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) March 14, 2022
China's Guangdong could see 75,000 daily COVID cases if curbs are lifted – study https://t.co/lGMdXp13JX pic.twitter.com/LGbOIivQu2
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 14, 2022
Dr. Zhang's comments indicative of a general shift among Chinese experts away from strict "zero Covid," but for a sign of how China not quite there yet, here's an expert asking for anonymity to even discuss such a move with state media: pic.twitter.com/j3GKQTRl0F
— James Griffiths ??????????? (@jgriffiths) March 14, 2022
Northeastern China's Jilin city is emerging as the centre of a severe regional outbreak, logging over 2,200 cases since Saturday as officials admitted control measures were "not robust enough". A commercial district in Shenzhen was also locked down today.https://t.co/CfEEmPhrsL
— Laurie Chen (@lauriechenwords) March 13, 2022
Meanwhile the small city of Yanbian near the North Korean border was locked down today. At least four entire cities in Jilin province have been locked down since March 1, including the industrial base of Changchun. This comes despite authorities urging "precise" control measures.
— Laurie Chen (@lauriechenwords) March 13, 2022
As others in the thread have pointed out, this is the exhibition hall in Pazhou 琶洲 in Canton (Guangzhou). Supposedly, someone's health code (which you must use to enter venues) scanned red, leading to a lockdown and mandatory negative test to be allowed to exit.
— Old China Bland (香港) (@OldChinaBland) March 14, 2022
Apple suppliers Foxconn, Unimicron cut output amid China's COVID curbs https://t.co/1jgOadejaR pic.twitter.com/RYUJQpRe9x
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 14, 2022
(Watch out for circling financial vultures)
Calling this now: Omicron breaking through in China will be a double whammy for global trade and therefore inflation.
China just declared a 7-day lockdown in Shenzhen — home of one of the world's largest ports.https://t.co/5KhOESgbbi
— Christopher Mims ? (@mims) March 13, 2022
I'm inclined to agree w/early takes that Shenzhen lockdown will worsen inflation. That said, 2-week lockdown in Ningbo, a major port, had only transitory impact on delivery times, PPI. Bigger risk: if China's COVID at tipping point, worse disruption ahead. https://t.co/pMXA6h8Fmc
— Greg Ip (@greg_ip) March 14, 2022
snitches get riches https://t.co/GKZtamC5tX
— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) March 13, 2022
Hong Kong leader says no plans to tighten COVID social distancing measures https://t.co/2MfpUQqmnS pic.twitter.com/9GqaeyHlg8
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 14, 2022
Hong Kong reported 26,908 Covid-19 infections on Monday, of which 14,868 were from rapid tests.
Full, trusted coverage on HKFP: https://t.co/w8LTgNga80
Covid data explainer: https://t.co/5l83n2Xvio pic.twitter.com/AD0bxqnczI— Hong Kong Free Press HKFP (@hkfp) March 14, 2022
NEW: CE Carrie Lam sends her regards to Shenzhen, which will go into lockdown, and thanked Guangdong govt’s support. “Shenzhen govt said they will ensure supplies to Hong Kong,” she said.
— Alvin Lum (@alvinllum) March 14, 2022
Mainland will start sending medical personnel to help treat Covid patients. Some 70 medical personnel will arrive in Hong Kong today, another batch 300 to come later this week. Lam said there will be a much larger group to come in future.
— Alvin Lum (@alvinllum) March 14, 2022
All mainland personnel working in Hong Kong are exempted under various local registration rules, Lam said. She likened mainland personnel are helping Hong Kong the same way they did in Wuhan’s outbreak in 2020.
— Alvin Lum (@alvinllum) March 14, 2022
Why?
Here is the vaccination coverage by age vs Singapore and New Zealand. Also contributing is the high use of Sinovac, for 2/3rd of elderly who were vaccinated, which has reduced efficacy vs Omicron pic.twitter.com/ncS1Vlgrls— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) March 14, 2022
Hong Kong's "badly mishandled response to the latest wave of Covid-19 infections has further highlighted the incompetence of its bureaucracy, and may have become the final straw for many of the city’s affluent and international residents." https://t.co/Y5IxYiUHff
— James Griffiths ??????????? (@jgriffiths) March 12, 2022
Australian authorities on Monday warned the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccine booster shots could unleash a new wave of infections amid the threat from the highly contagious BA.2 sub-variant of the Omicron coronavirus strain. https://t.co/t2eRJaKtdG
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) March 14, 2022
Why are many countries in Europe starting to ascend again?
✓ Relaxed mitigation measures
✓ BA.2's higher transmission
✓ Waning of immunity
There's no clear or consistent pattern to determine which (or all) of these factors are driving it; no new variants have been implicated pic.twitter.com/IcwqQzL4lt— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) March 13, 2022
Watching Europewide new wave rising, and thinking who could have fores… OUCH
— Aris Katzourakis (@ArisKatzourakis) March 12, 2022
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What we've learned so far about genetic susceptibility to Covid https://t.co/cU1kmBSb5n, by @danielalamasmd @nytopinion @Mayanazatz @dalygene @casanova_lab pic.twitter.com/aMLutAck9Z
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) March 13, 2022
The acid test for Covid vaccines are protection of the elderly. New data from ~900,000 Finns age 70+ show how 3 shots achieved 96% effectiveness vs hospitalization, before and after Omicron, and even higher vs ICU need https://t.co/TQOQV4SL9a Spikevax=Moderna; Comirnaty=Pfizer pic.twitter.com/mtUCqne1dT
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) March 14, 2022
“If you want a strong universal immunization program that people can count on, you have to have a vibrant safety net, and the safety net is about to collapse.” —Renee Gentry
I've reported this story for 4+ months. It's important. Please read and share.https://t.co/ykGKDyVZGu
— Tara Haelle (@tarahaelle) March 11, 2022
A subvariant of Omicron, BA.2, is not yet causing a new surge in the United States and probably won’t.https://t.co/H3G4xULENt
— NYT Science (@NYTScience) March 14, 2022
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Canadian hockey fans take it outside to celebrate end of COVID restrictions https://t.co/xW2qJCKfNm pic.twitter.com/wYjbmSBocf
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 14, 2022
Baud
Wow. Mostly international. Heady times.
rikyrah
Get well, Mr. President??
Baud
Did he really say no good. Last I heard, the vaccine did help against infection.
RSA
I was curious why so few elderly in Hong Kong have been vaccinated. This story lists some of the reasons; there’s nothing unfamiliar to my eyes: lack of consistency in recommendations from doctors, fear of the unknown, public misinformation…
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
49 new cases on 3/13.
NotMax
Deadly serious whack-a-mole.
YY_Sima Qian
On 3/13 Mainland China reported 1,337 new domestic confirmed (77 previously asymptomatic), 788 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Guangdong Province reported 79 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 151 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 3 new domestic confirmed (all at Qinzhou, all mild) & 14 new domestic asymptomatic cases (1 at Liuzhou, 3 at Fangchenggang & 10 at Chongzuo). There currently are 68 active domestic confirmed (48 at Fangchenggang, 15 at Baise, 3 at Qinzhou & 1 each at Chongzuo & Nanning) & 74 active domestic asymptomatic cases (41 at Fangchenggang, 12 at Baise, 17 at Chongzuo & 4 at Liuzhou) in the province. 1 zone at Fangchenggang are currently at Medium Risk.
Hunan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases in the province (1 each at Xiangtan & Huaihua).
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region did not report any new domestic positive cases. 24 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 60 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Tianjin Municipality reported 40 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic, 39 mild & 1 moderate) & 12 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 30 are traced close contacts already under quarantine, 21 from screening of residents in areas under movement restrictions & 1 from fever clinic. 2 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 148 active domestic confirmed & 26 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. A bath house & a construction site are currently at High Risk. 6 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shandong Province reported 92 new domestic confirmed (26 previously asymptomatic, 64 mild & 2 moderate) & 97 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 848 active domestic confirmed cases & 1,241 active asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Shanxi Province 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 23 active domestic confirmed cases in the province (12 at Jinzhong, 5 each at Yuncheng & Taiyuan & 1 at Jincheng).
Hebei Province reported 51 new domestic confirmed & 162 domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 182 active domestic confirmed & 247 active asymptomatic case in the province.
Liaoning Province reported 9 new domestic confirmed cases, 1 at Shenyang, 5 at Yingkou, 2 at Tieling & 1 at Panjin. the case at Tieling are traced close contacts of domestic positive cases reported by Tianjin, passing through Tieling while on the way home to Jilin City in Jilin; the cases at Yingkou & Shenyang are traced F1 & F2 close contacts of domestic positive cases reported elsewhere, & already under quarantine; the case at Panjin is a person recently arriving from Yingkou. 6 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 126 active domestic confirmed (105 at Huludao, 13 at Shenyang, 5 at Yingkou, 2 at Tieling & 1 at Panjin) & 11 active domestic (5 each at Shenyang & Dandong, & 1 at Fuxin) cases in the province.
Heilongjiang Province reported 7 new domestic confirmed (5 mild & 2 moderate) & 10 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 34 active domestic confirmed & 70 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jilin Province reported 895 new domestic confirmed (41 previously asymptomatic, 890 mild, 4 moderate & 1 serious) & 131 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 2,947 active domestic confirmed (2,025 mild & 27 moderate) & 1,617 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Beijing Municipality reported 6 new domestic confirmed (all mild) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 4 are traced close contacts already under home or centralized quarantine, & the other 4 are found via mass screening.
Shanghai Municipality reported 41 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) & 128 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 122 of the new domestic positive cases are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine & 45 from screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure. There currently are 81 active domestic confirmed & 638 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 8 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shaanxi Province reported 60 new domestic confirmed cases (4 previously asymptomatic, 55 mild & 5 moderate), 14 at Xi’an, 45 at Baoji, & 1 at Hanzhong, 49 are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine, 5 via screening of residents in areas under movement restrictions, & 6 via mass screening. There currently are 192 active domestic confirmed cases in the province (71 at Xi’an, 109 at Baoji, 11 at Hanzhong, & 1 at Yangling). A restaurant at Baoji is currently at High Risk. 13 sites at Xi’an, 2 at Baoji & 2 at Hanzhong are currently at Medium Risk.
At Hubei Province 9 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 6 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 30 active domestic confirmed (24 mild & 6 moderate, all at Wuhan) & 5 active domestic asymptomatic (4 at Wuhan & 1 at Xianning) cases in the province..
Jiangsu Province reported 16 new domestic (1 previously asymptomatic, 20 mild & 3 moderate) & 23 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 153 active domestic confirmed & 89 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Anhui Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, at Chuzhou, a person who arrived from Changzhou in Jiangsu on 3/11, testing positive on 3/12. There currently are 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province (2 at Suzhou & 1 each at Anqing & Chuzhou).
Zhejiang Province reported 6 new domestic confirmed (4 at Hangzhou & 1 each at Jiaxing & Quzhou, all mild) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic (both at Hangzhou) cases, all are traced close contacts already under quarantine. There currently are 73 active domestic confirmed (54 at Hangzhou, 10 at Quzhou, & 3 each at Wenzhou, Huzhou & Jiaxing) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (1 at Wenzhou) cases in the province.
Gansu Province reported 12 new domestic confirmed & 15 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 135 active domestic confirmed & 105 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Fujian Province reported 10 new domestic confirmed cases, all at Quanzhou, 9 are employees at the same hotel found via voluntary screening, & 1 found via fever clinic. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed (10 at Quanzhou & 1 at Xiamen) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Zhangzhou) cases in the province.
At Xining in Qinghai Province there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases (both mild) in the city.
Henan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed (5 at Puyang & 1 at Zhengzhou) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Puyang) cases in the province. 7 sites at Puyang are currently Medium Risk.
Chongqing Municipality reported 6 new domestic confirmed (5 mild & 1 asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine, all students at the same college. There currently is 14 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 3 dormitory buildings in the college w/ the outbreak have been elevated to Medium Risk.
Yunnan Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed & 35 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 6 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 14 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 72 active domestic confirmed & 301 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 3/13, Mainland China reported 100 new imported confirmed cases (21 previously asymptomatic, 6 in Guangdong), 118 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:
Overall in Mainland China, 135 confirmed cases recovered (77 imported), 56 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (34 imported) & 98 were reclassified as confirmed cases (21 imported), & 8,222 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 8,531 active confirmed cases in the country (2,610 imported), 8 in serious condition (2 imported), 7,039 active asymptomatic cases (1,549 imported), 5 suspect cases (all imported). 161,403 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 3/13, 3,193.236M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 3.81M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 3/14, Hong Kong reported 26,908 new positive cases, all domestic (12,040 via RT-PCR & 14,868 from rapid antigen tests), 286 deaths + 249 backlogged deaths.
On 3/14, Taiwan reported 75 new positive cases, 73 imported & 2 domestic.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 22,535 new Covid-19 cases yesterday in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 3,823,571 cases. It also reported 87 deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 33,807 deaths – 0.88% of the cumulative reported total, 0.97% of resolved cases.
Malaysia’s nationwide Rt stands at 0.97.
174 confirmed cases are in ICU, 103 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 25,356 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 3,468,888 patients recovered – 90.7% of the cumulative reported total.
Six new clusters were reported yesterday, for a cumulative total of 6,881 clusters. 389 clusters are currently active; 6,492 clusters are now inactive.
22,174 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. 361 new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 45,025 doses of vaccine on 13th March: 23,489 first doses, 1,349 second doses, and 20,187 booster doses. The cumulative total is 68,159,756 doses administered: 27,315,739 first doses, 25,772,154 second doses, and 15,280,702 booster doses. 83.6% of the population have received their first dose, 78.9% their second dose, and 46.8% their booster dose.
SiubhanDuinne
@Baud:
In the video, he says “not that good [against infection].” He doesn’t say “no good.”
ETA: Highly irresponsible of Regalado to misquote him that way.
OzarkHillbilly
How Covid shook the US: eight charts that capture the last two years.
.
Baud
@SiubhanDuinne:
Thanks. I thought that was wrong.
Chetan Murthy
@SiubhanDuinne: https://www.mediaite.com/news/pfizer-ceo-fourth-covid-shot-is-necessary/
I think he’s comparing protection against hospitalization/death with that against infection tout court. And saying that the latter isn’t as good as the former. But for me, the kicker is “but doesn’t last very long”. That’s where he’s saying that we’ll need re-ups.
lowtechcyclist
@Chetan Murthy: This CEO strikes me as a guy who’s trying to build continuing demand for his product, whether it’s needed or not.
Especially given that we’ve seen links in this space to a lot of analysis suggesting that that third shot does a lot more than just getting your body’s defenses back to where they were after shot #2, and that a fourth shot might not be necessary or even all that helpful for quite some time.
If the scientists start backing him up, then I’ll believe them.
Soprano2
JMHO, but I don’t think China’s “zero-Covid” policy was ever sustainable, especially in the face of Omicron. I understand the desire to have zero Covid, but it’s just not practical unless you want to lock the rest of the world out forever. To me it’s been an underreported story how much the sudden lockdowns in China might be contributing to shortages and inflation. Our whole demand/supply mechanism is predicated on predictable, sustainable demand and supply, and now we have neither.
Here the 7-day case rolling average is down to 19, which is close to the lowest it ever was in May of 2021, which was 16. Hospitalizations are down to 47, still quite a bit higher than the lowest number of 22 in April 2021. The bad news – they added ten more deaths to the February total for a total of 21. All were probably preventable with vaccination. So far there are no Covid deaths in March, which is good news. The fully vaccinated rate has slowed to a crawl – now I’m wondering if we’ll ever reach 60% vaccinated here, and again remember we’re surrounded by counties whose vaccination rate is worse than ours.
smith
Currently, CDC says that for the population over 5, unvaccinated people are more than 2 times as likely to get infected as those fully vaxxed. For those over 18, unvaxxed are more than 3 times as likely to get infected as those who are vaxxed and boosted. Seems to me that if we had preventative measures that effective for other diseases we’d consider it pretty darn good. It’s just a lot less than the protection vaccines gave against delta and previous variants.
JoyceH
Does it concern anyone else that the infection rate, which had been declining steeply, seems to have leveled out the past four or five days? It’s pretty low, but not getting lower. I’m worried that we might be seeing the bottom of the trough before a new surge.
Matt McIrvin
@lowtechcyclist: The analysis I’ve seen is consistent with what he said. The long-term protection is against severe disease, not infection. The sterilizing antibodies go away eventually, but the body is primed to make more, and to kill infected cells, if it gets infected.
Whether that means you need more shots later depends on what we think the shots are for–severe disease protection, or infection control. That’s a policy question more than a scientific one. The splashy headline that said you won’t need more shots oversimplified this.
What I’m guessing is that we’ll see a push for shot 4 (maybe of a reformulated vaccine?) when the next wave comes, to help with infection control. It’s less useful to give them to everyone before then.
Matt McIrvin
The difference in the recent US vs. European experience is still a little mysterious to me. Several possibilities:
1. BA.2 will whack us hard and we’re not just quite there yet (but why aren’t things worse here? New England has the most BA.2)
2. They prematurely lifted controls that we never really had in the first place, so we already got the infections they’re seeing now
3. Something else
Not sure which.
FlyingToaster
@JoyceH: The biggest problem is the dropping of mask mandates about a month earlier than “best practice” would indicate; specifically, waiting until 1 April to prevent the college kid Spring Break (going and coming) surge.
WarriorTeen’s school (PK-8) decided to go to KN95/KF94/surgical masks for January-March. Hopefully they’ll be able to return to their 3-ply cloth masks in April, but right now, even with reduced spread, our communities around Boston are just too likely to have surges from people travelling this month. April should be a lot more relaxed.
Matt McIrvin
@JoyceH: I think it’s a combination of a lot of stuff. There have been these little “bounce” spikes after the main Omicron spike in a bunch of places, often college towns. They seem to clear in a few days though. But if you look at the wastewater data for Boston it also does seem like there’s a floor to the amount of viral RNA they see, maybe corresponding to several cases/100k/day. Whether that means we’re going to head into another spike, hard to say.
smith
I wish we could get more clarity on the impact of waning vaccine effectiveness, especially in old people. We are told that even with a booster, vaccine effectiveness drops off after 4-6 months, and drops off especially sharply in people over 50. The obvious upturn in cases in a number of Western European countries is being attributed in part to waning vaccine effectiveness, and these are countries with much higher rates of vaxxed + boosted than we have here.
Old people were near the front of the line for vaccinations, and if they kept to the recommended schedule for boosters are now 4-6 months out from the third shot. So, just as everyone throws away their masks, and the BA.2 subvariant starts to crowd out original recipe omicron, old people may be becoming more susceptible to infection. More infection in old people means necessarily more hospitalizations and deaths.
The experience of Israel in providing a second booster has been widely dismissed as “only” bringing the immune response back up to the level it had immediately after the first booster, and therefore leaving people still prone to breakthrough omicron infections. But as time goes on, “only” recovering that much resistance might make a great deal of difference to people increasingly at risk as their resistance wanes. I guess if old people have to wait until fall for their next shot, we’ll figure it out, assuming we’re still counting deaths by then.
eachother
Yeah. I’m concerned. The US map is blinking red and changing the location of where the red (or pink) is from day to day, which indicates rising cases in that location. It is not steady or staying in one place but moving around widely.
My animal sense is detecting cautionary vibrations.
Barbara
@Soprano2: Zero infection was a good plan — it largely worked in New Zealand — but it needed to be followed by basically universal vaccination with a vaccine that (in our case, really by happenstance and good fortune) was effective against Omicron. Looking at the data on Hong Kong, clearly, vaccination wasn’t nearly high enough — I don’t know about the rest of China — and Sinovac does not appear to be as robust against Omicron as some other vaccines, e.g., Moderna. This puts China in a more precarious position than it would have been if their vaccine had been more robust against Omicron. So maybe one thing that they did do wrong was not approving every vaccine that worked, to have a wider range of options. I am told they are developing their own mRNA vaccine, and I understand the desire to have control over whatever drug is rolled out, but it comes at a cost.
However, as I told one of my kids when she was primed by some website to get into high dudgeon about restrictive policies in China, try to imagine what the Chinese must be thinking about our willingness to tolerate so many deaths, and a death rate that many politicians do not consider “unsustainable,” indeed, don’t even consider worth adopting relatively unrestrictive policies like masking. We really need a dose of humility before we criticize other countries.
JoyceH
I hope they’re continuing to work on vaccines. It’s great that we’ve got them, but maybe they could be better. I recall reading that the original shingles vaccine was something like 55% effective, about the same as the flu vaccine and better than nothing, but Shingrix is better than 90%. So maybe something that lasts longer and is more effective against infection/spread.
YY_Sima Qian
@Soprano2: If China hadn’t pursued “Dynamic Zero”, it would have been overwhelmed by Delta back in the middle of 2021, at the same time when the manufacturing centers in SE Asia were also slammed by Delta causing widespread disruption in the supply chain. It would have made the end of 2021 quite dicy economically.
The COVID-19 related lock downs & restrictions in China will have a further impact on supply chain disruption & inflation, & SE Asia (& South Korea) is still being slammed by Omicron as we speak. The lock down in Shenzhen may not have that much impact, since there are relatively few factories remaining in the ever more expensive city. Shenzhen is the place for HQ functions, finance, R&D, etc., & a lot of that can be done at home. Most of the factories have decamped to neighboring Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhongshan & Jiangmen, or further into inland provinces. Fortunately, the outbreak in Dongguan is highly concentrated in 1 township, & w/in a few factories in that township. If all of Dongguan’s 32 townships are going into lock down, then the impact to global supply chains will be catastrophic for a broad range of products.
As things stand, the massive outbreak in Hong Kong has had greater impact. The city serves as a major warehousing & transshipment hub for much of Southern China. So many truck drivers that transport goods back & further between Hong Kong & cities in the Pearl River Delta have tested positive that freight traffic was running at 20% of normal levels last week. During the 1 week lock down at Shenzhen, all such cross-border freight hauling is halted, except for delivering food & medical supplies to Hong Kong. A lot of factories are having difficulties getting materials from Hong Kong warehouses, & are scrambling to find bonded warehouses in places like Zhuhai & Guangzhou. In the mean time, some of them are having to shut down.
China has successfully quelled multiple Omicron outbreaks in Jan. & Feb. However, I think authorities in Shanghai & Shenzhen were either too complacent or too hesitant for fear of economic damage. They were quite slow to designated Medium/High Risk areas despite the escalating case incidence, & they did not order city-wide mass screening campaigns to uncover cryptic transmission. Their “lighter” touch would have been fine against Delta, but not Omicron (& especially not Omicron BA.2). Shanghai in particular has seeded clusters across the Yangtze River Delta region (& further afield), including a sizable secondary outbreak in Shaanxi. As always, going hard & early results in elimination following shorter lock downs.
The outbreaks at Jilin City in Jilin & Qingdao in Shandong (& other places) have been super accelerated by schools, college dormitories & factory dormitories. The things that I feared since the 1st wave, but had not come to pass, are happening now.
For now, Hubei Province is a relative island of calm, but who know how long that will last.
YY_Sima Qian
@Barbara: Hong Kong had high vaccination rates, except for the > 80 y.o. cohort (something like 30% having 2 doses, even lower boosting rate). Right now 90% of deaths are among the people who were not fully vaccinated, at a time when the elderly should be getting boosters. If 90% of Hong Kong’s elders had been vaccinated & boosted, even w/ the Sinovac (BioNTech of course better, but a lot of the elderly were scared off by the side effects), the city would be in a better place right now.
Mainland China has the same issue w/ low vaccination rate for the > 80 y.o. cohort (~ 50% were fully vaccinated as of a month ago). Vaccination rate is high than Hong Kong, quality of health care lower (much lower in low tier cities & rural areas), & overcrowded in the best of times (just like the public hospitals in Hong Kong). So far, Omicron is producing > 50% asymptomatic cases, & > 80% of symptomatic cases are mild (mild flu like symptoms). Only 6 domestic serious (needing oxygen support)/critical (needing intubation/ICU care) cases in all of Mainland China, out of > 11K active domestic positive cases. That might be because most of the biggest clusters & super spreading events are at schools, universities & factory compounds, w/ younger demographics & very high vaccination/boosting rates.
Still no data from the domestic Abogen/Walwax mRNA vaccine’s Phase III trial. China has allowed vaccine mixing for boosters, which should help. I hope to get a protein sub-unit shot (if an mRNA one is not yet widely available) when I am due for another booster in a couple of months.
Matt McIrvin
@Barbara: It seems like zero infection plans make it psychologically difficult to convince people to get vaccinated. They may not be antivax but there’s no sense of urgency because they figure it’s under control.
Matt McIrvin
@eachother: But the fact that they’re short blinks seems to mean there’s not (at the moment) a larger pool of susceptible people to make the outbreaks really explode.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Greece: the news isn’t great. The Sunday lull dropped the new numbers to 11,986, but Monday’s numbers are out, and the new cases are double that – 22,694. Deaths rose from 48 to 70, and intubated patients rose from 356 to 364.
Prime Minister Mitsotakis has tested positive.
Source: Kathimerini
Barbara
@Matt McIrvin: Well, yes, that’s kind of why anti-vaxxers tend to in focus on diseases that have faded from memory, or focus on the fact that a disease (like chicken pox) is actually quite mild. This has definitely been the MO with Covid, and especially Omicron. However, places like New Zealand — admittedly an outlier in a number of ways — did manage to vaccinate a high proportion of its citizens. I don’t think a zero response was ever in the cards for a larger, non-island country, but Korea and Japan have come much closer to achieving a successful sustained response that relies on restrictions and testing and then on vaccines. It’s just that, the larger the population, and the more heterogenous the economic conditions (rural versus city, poor versus affluent) the harder it is to succeed with a single strategy.
eachother
@Matt McIrvin: They are short blinks. Interesting and erratic.
Your theory about there not being enough fertile ground to sustain the outbreak is also interesting.
I am reminded of a structure fire that has used up its oxygen. No flame but an undiminished heat. Introduce oxygen and boom. Flashover. Every thing bursts into flame after the explosion.
Possibly the oxygen in this could be a virulent new variant?
Matt McIrvin
@eachother: Cheryl Rofer has pointed out that the mathematics of pandemic spread are very similar to those of a nuclear chain reaction. Either you have criticality or you don’t. Right now there’s some depletion of fuel because so many people got infected recently and have antibodies against Omicron.
But I’m wondering if some of these little bounces might be because people who have been reasonably careful about avoiding Covid are starting to relax and go out in public a bit more. Because they’ve been careful, they haven’t gotten Omicron already, and they got boosted very early so their neutralizing antibodies are basically gone by now. So while they’re well-protected against dire illness, they’re actually more susceptible to Covid infection right now than the average person. But the little outbreaks don’t spread far once they encounter social circles where everyone already got it.