Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Let’s show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Let’s finish the job.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

Found liable for massive fraud, is required to post a massive bond, gets a break, then files a *fraudulent* bond!

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

We still have time to mess this up!

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

It’s not hopeless, and we’re not helpless.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you don’t.

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

Come on, man.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

You cannot shame the shameless.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

Be a traveling stable for those who can’t find room at the inn.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Update 20: Things Are Continuing As They’ve Been Going

War for Ukraine Update 20: Things Are Continuing As They’ve Been Going

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War for Ukraine Update 20: Things Are Continuing As They've Been Going

(Picture found here, artist’s site is here)

This is what the artist of the above piece, Stanislav Lunin of Lviv, wrote to accompany it:

Welcome to free Ukraine

Now there is a war in my country.
Russia has barbarically attacked Ukraine and bombed peaceful cities and peaceful people and children in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Chernihiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Vinnytsia. Moscow propaganda says that this is an operation to liberate Ukrainians, but Ukrainians do not want that. We are a independent and a country of great people. Everyone who comes to our land will rest in it. Good evening, and Welcome to Ukraine, bitches!

I do not claim the approval of the art community, during the war I had to make a quick collage to motivate the resistance of my people, I hope for understanding and support from artists around the world.

Let’s start with the reporting from yesterday about Russia asking China for assistance. I mentioned it, but wanted to wait for more information before digging into it a bit and now we have more information to dig into. Dig it? Good.

From CNN:

(CNN)The US has information suggesting China has expressed some openness to providing Russia with requested military and financial assistance as part of its war on Ukraine, a Western official and a US diplomat told CNN, and is conveying what it knows to its NATO allies.

It is not yet clear whether China intends to provide Russia with that assistance, US officials familiar with the intelligence tell CNN. But during an intense, seven-hour meeting in Rome, a top aide to President Joe Biden warned his Chinese counterpart of “potential implications and consequences” for China should support for Russia be forthcoming, a senior administration official said.

The series of events underscored the growing concern among American officials at the budding partnership between Moscow and Beijing as Biden works to isolate and punish Russia for its aggression in Ukraine. While officials have said the Chinese President was alarmed at what has taken place since Russia invaded, there is little to indicate China is prepared to cut off its support entirely.

That leaves open a troubling possibility for American officials — that China may help prolong a bloody conflict that is increasingly killing civilians, while also cementing an authoritarian alliance in direct competition with the United States.

In a diplomatic cable, the US relayed to its allies in Europe and Asia that China had conveyed a willingness to assist Russia, which has asked for military support. The cable did not state definitively that assistance had been provided. One official also said the US warned in the cable that China would likely deny it was willing to provide assistance.

Among the assistance Russia requested was pre-packaged, non-perishable military food kits, known in the US as “meal, ready-to-eat,” or MREs, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The request underscores the basic logistical challenges that military analysts and officials say have stymied Russian progress in Ukraine — and raises questions about the fundamental readiness of the Russian military.

Forward-deployed units have routinely outstripped their supply convoys and open source reports have shown Russian troops breaking into grocery stores in search of food as the invasion has progressed. One of the sources suggested that food might be a request that China would be willing to meet, because it stops short of lethal assistance that would be seen as deeply provocative by the west.

The Chinese Communist Party leadership is not all in agreement regarding how to respond to Russia’s request for assistance, said one of the sources. Two officials said that China’s desire to avoid economic consequences may limit its appetite to help Russia. Officials separately told CNN that Chinese President Xi Jinping has been unnerved by how the war in Ukraine has reinvigorated the NATO alliance.

“There is real concern by some that their involvement could hurt economic relationships with the West, on which China relies,” said one of the sources.

Officials are also monitoring whether China provides some economic and diplomatic relief for Russia in other forms, like abstention votes at the United Nations.

There’s two things to be highlighted here. The first is that just as the Biden administration repeatedly released intelligence about Putin’s war planning (and more on that once we deal with these two things) to wrong foot Putin prior to his reinvasion of Ukraine, right now both Russia and the PRC have to be wondering just how deeply has the US been able to infiltrate Russian decision making and leadership circles in order to be able to have this type of information ready to be used as part of our Information Warfare response to Putin’s aggression. In the case of China they really have to worries. The first being just how much infiltration of Russia does the US have and, additionally now that information relating to China is being released, just how much infiltration of the PRC does the US have. The Ministry of State Security is going to be very busy trying to answer those questions.

The second thing to highlight is the request for food rations. A lot of people are commenting on this along the lines of “well, the Russians have terrible logistics and in central Ukraine they’ve moved beyond their supply lines ability to sustain them”. As well as “you can’t consider Russia a great power if it has to beg another great power for food and other supplies two weeks into a war”. While these hot takes are true, we actually have a better answer for why the Russian military needs food rations because we highlighted it in the 11 March update. The answer was provided by Bellingcat’s Christo Grozev in the tweets below. In short, the Russian kleptocracy includes selling the food rations the military needs to live off of during the war in Ukraine for profit on the black market.

Genius!

Just briefly, I want to touch on the Biden administrations release of what is clearly intelligence on what Russia is planning to do and doing as part of an ongoing Information and Psychological Warfare campaign. A lot of the people that were complaining that none of this should be taken at face value and therefore we couldn’t know if Putin was really going to reinvade were the same people stating unequivocally that Putin wasn’t going to reinvade. They were wrong then. They’re wrong now. And if you’re ever wondering why I don’t reference or post tweets from certain sources, this is most likely the reason to start.

Much more after the jump.

Ben Collins and Kevin Collier of NBC have a deep dive into how the US biolabs in Ukraine conspiracy theory was spread:

Pyrra Technologies, a cybersecurity and threat intelligence company, said the first mention of biolabs came on the far-right social network Gab on Feb. 14, 10 days before the invasion. The user included an awkwardly worded graphic, titled “Exclusive US biolabs in Ukraine, and they are financed at the expense of the US Department of Defense.”

The post largely sat idle for days. Welton Chang, the CEO of Pyrra, said posts about biolabs on the top 15 far-right social networks numbered in the single digits in the days before Russia’s invasion. But on Feb. 24, the day Russia began its invasion, the number of posts about biolabs on English-language far-right websites skyrocketed into the hundreds and only grew in the days after.

Boosted by far-right influencers on the day of the invasion, an anonymous QAnon Twitter account titled @WarClandestine pushed the “biolabs” theory to new heights, using the same “US biolabs” graphic initially included on the Gab post that went largely unshared the week before.

Twitter said the account and others that pushed the biolabs theory were banned for “multiple violations of our abusive behavior policy.”

The biolab conspiracy theory has taken over as the prevailing narrative on pro-Trump and QAnon websites like The Great Awakening and Patriots.Win.

Chang said the rhetoric on pro-Trump sites, which had largely been anti-Putin in the first days of the war, has shifted because of the biolab conspiracy theory.

“These communities already know what the rhythm and cadence of Covid conspiracies should be like to get people to buy it,” Chang said. “They had a lot of practice with QAnon. The kinds of things that get people excited, like any time you say ‘secret biolab,’ it gets people’s emotions up.”

Russian and Chinese officials have also boosted the theory. On Tuesday, China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry began pushing the conspiracy theory, asking for a “full account” of Ukraine’s “biological military activities at home and abroad.”

By Wednesday, almost two weeks after the invasion, the conspiracy theory had reached Carlson, who led his show claiming that the “Biden administration was funding secret biolabs in Ukraine.”

Much much more at the link above. Unfortunately, Collins and Collier didn’t drill all the way down, as we have here in previous updates, and, as a result, they did not report that this conspiracy theory is a repurposed and reframed conspiracy theory that was originally being pushed by Dilyana Gaytandzhievia about US bio weapon labs in Georgia. And that she was one of the people that repurposed it for Ukraine.

Here’s today’s background briefing from the Pentagon as reported by Dan Lamothe:

  • I’ll start with the strikes Sunday on the Ukrainian military training center at Yavoriv, near the border with Poland. A senior U.S. defense official says they were carried out by cruise missiles launched from long-range Russian bombers from Russian airspace.
  • Note: That’s different than speculation and some reporting yesterday that they were carried out by sea-launched missiles from Russian ships. Those are still quite rare in this war.
  • “More than a couple dozen” Russian cruise missiles were launched at the training center from aircraft, the senior U.S. defense official says. He notes that a no-fly zone patrolling Ukrainian airspace would not have stopped this strike.
  • The Pentagon is not clear on whether any Americans there as volunteers for the Ukrainian effort were there. It’s not something they are tracking, the senior U.S. defense official says.
  • Russian ground advances remain largely stalled, the senior U.S. defense official says. No “appreciable” change on advances on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, etc.
  • Pentagon still sees no indications of the Russians sending in military reinforcements from elsewhere in Russia, the senior U.S. defense official said.
  • “Siege mentality” by Russia still playing out, the senior U.S. defense official says. Heavy bombardment of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, etc. Mariupol and Chernihiv remain under attack and isolated.
  • Senior U.S. defense official on Russia: “Clearly, they are increasing the amount of long-range fires they are applying to these cities, these population centers that are holding out … They are obviously continuing the bombardment and increasing that, no doubt about it.”
  • Russia now has 100 percent of the forces it assembled prior to invading committed to the fight. It has under 90 percent of those forces available to them, after taking losses, senior U.S. defense official says.
  • Pentagon still sees no indications of Belarus sending in forces to join the fight, senior U.S. defense official says.
  • As of Monday, Russia has launched more than 900 missiles at Ukraine since the beginning the invasion Feb. 24, senior U.S. defense official says.
  • No change in force posture for the about 5,000 U.S. troops in Poland following yesterday’s airstrikes on the Yavoriv military training center just inside Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says.
  • Russia still has not achieve air superiority over Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says. But he couches by saying Russia has not achieved air superiority over “all of Ukraine.” Last week, lawmakers sent a letter to POTUS suggesting Russia had air superiority already.

Here’s a good thread by Russia’s former Foreign Minister:

  • Nuclear deterrence is based on the belief that any attack with nuclear weapons will immediately trigger a mirror response in kind. For more than 70 years, this conviction – the balance of fear – was shared by nuclear powers and kept WWIII away.
  • The use of strategic nuclear forces, which Putin ordered to be put on high alert (and apparently nothing happened), is a suicidal act given the policy of mutually assured destruction.
  • As I explained in my other thread, he is not interested in pressing the strategic nuclear button, but is smart enough to threaten to do it. Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet leader who was fascinated with nuclear bombs, tried this before.
  • What if during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Khrushchev believed that JFK wanted to avoid the risk of nuclear war more than he did? As a result of JFK’s brinksmanship in the Cuban Crisis, WWIII was avoided. The balance of fear worked based on American resolve.
  • What if Reagan had blinked on the Pershing deployments in Western Europe? Would Mr. Gorbachev tear down the wall then?
  • For Putin and his team of ex-KGB officers, the Cold War never ended. The collapse of the USSR was just one lost battle in an ongoing contest. They probe the West with limited wars (Georgia), interventions (Syria), cyberwar (Estonia) and disinformation.
  • The feeble responses to their actions in Crimea, Donbas, and Syria, convinced the Kremlin that the US and the West became decadent and lost the will to resist after declaring the post-Cold War era.
  • Granted, the united response to the invasion caught them off guard. And the war is not going according to plan, with Western munitions greatly assisting the Ukrainians. Putin doesn’t like to be on the back foot, so now they’re checking if the threat of nuclear war is effective.
  • The West willingly provided evidence of its effectiveness. The shameful game of hot potato around Polish MiGs started after Putin’s nuclear threat. Now the Kremlin wants to see what else they can stop with nuclear blackmail: they called Western arms convoys “legitimate targets”.
  • Putin declared that the economic sanctions were “an act of war.” Can he force the West to ease sanctions with the specter of nuclear war? I don’t see why he wouldn’t try.
  • I’m not calling for a No Fly Zone or any specific military move in Ukraine. The feasibility and effectiveness of these options is beyond my expertise. But, I am calling out political statements that give away “bargaining power” by ruling out options for fear of nuclear war.

Here’s a statement from Vladimir Klitschko, brother of Kyiv’s mayor Vitaly Klitschko, from the tour they took the news media on to the site of an air strike on Kyiv earlier today:

And here’s Mayor Klitschko:

Video of the missile intercept in Kyiv:

The aftermath:

Here’s the first tweet in a long and very detailed thread on how things are going – not well – in the southeast of Ukraine. It has links and imagery embedded in the tweets, so click across to read the whole thread and to to see the links and images.

I tried copying and pasting from the thread reader app, but that just made a big mess. So just click on the tweet above!

Here’s more detail on what’s going on with the Russian’s arresting local officials, reporters, and activists:

 

Mariupol:

Kharkiv:

The Russians are still targeting Lviv:

The power is off, again, in Chornobyl!

 

The daily reminder of why I don’t think the sanctions and other economic measures are going to be effective:

For when you want to reach out and touch someone!

Your daily bayraktar (TB-2 is their alphanumeric designator):

Is this upgrade package available in the US?

Here’s a final bit of info so far on Marina Ovsyannikova. As has been reported, the last details we have of her is that she was taken into police custody. Everyone keep a good thought that they want her presentable and in good shape for the show trial!

Veronika Melkozerova, has had an op-ed published in The Atlantic.

Every day Russians commit more and more atrocities in my country. Only after Putin unleashed hell on our lands did the West finally unite in support of Ukraine, providing more weapons. Finally, the collective democratic world squeezed Russia with unprecedented sanctions.

However, this has not stopped Putin from bombing and destroying Ukraine. If anything, his resolve has only strengthened. The Kremlin knows that Russians will feel the full impact of sanctions in a month or so. It also knows that Europe is so dependent on Russian fossil fuels that such harsh sanctions likely won’t last long. I already see more and more tweets sympathizing with Russians, saying those people do not deserve the limitations imposed against their nation for Putin’s war.

The Kremlin knows that the West, despite its public admiration for Ukrainian courage, has left Ukraine alone on the actual battlefield. Westerners would rather help Ukraine with weapons and money but stand aside.

People in these countries are scared of World War III. I understand the fear—but don’t you understand that World War III may have already arrived? Ukraine has been begging NATO to establish a no-fly zone, to protect us from Russian bombs, or at least give us fighter jets so we can better protect our skies. So far, the answer on both is “no.”

Meanwhile, more than 2,187 people have died because of Russian attacks in Mariupol alone, according to officials there. Russian attacks from the air have almost destroyed Volnovakha, Kharkiv, and many other towns in Ukraine. Ukraine’s authorities, who first pressured world powers to impose preventive sanctions, then pushed them to cut Russia from the SWIFT international-payment system, then pushed them to cut Russia from the rest of the world, have been asking how many more people should die for the skies to be closed over Ukraine.

What I see from NATO is a version of this message: The war in Ukraine is not our war. We will come forward only if Russia attacks an alliance member or bombs our convoy to Ukraine.

People of Europe and the U.S. have been pressing their governments to take a proactive position. They sent donations. They sent thoughts and prayers. The governments, especially in Europe, are still very cautious when it comes to making any move that might provoke Russia. Leaders such as Emmanuel Macron still seem to believe that dialogue can persuade Putin to stop his atrocities. For many in Europe, Russia’s petroleum and gas are more valuable than Ukrainian lives.

I understand the Western governments’ position.

I also used to say “This is not my war” while watching Russia’s atrocities in Aleppo. I also sent my thoughts and prayers to the people of Syria, also destroyed with the help of Putin. And back in 2008, I was so young that I did not even care to think about Georgians, whose land was also devastated and divided by Putin. And before that Moldova, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Libya, and other African countries.

We in Ukraine also did not believe that Putin would dare to launch a full-scale invasion. But he did. Because in Moldova, Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine, Russia got away with its crimes. It did all this after the infamous “reset” of relations with the United States, and the United States allowed it. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on March 3, the West will “get over” its “hysteria” about Ukraine too.

I am afraid he might be right. And I am afraid of what that will mean for the rest of the world. Russia can’t let itself lose in Ukraine and has enough resources to keep its economy alive. Putin has made clear that he doesn’t see Ukraine as a sovereign nation and that he would rather destroy it than let it exist as a free European nation. Many, if not most, Russians share his view. Even many who claim to be liberals have tended to see Ukraine as a “special country,” meaning their country.

So maybe by saying “This is not our war,” the world’s leading democratic countries are simply showing that they are in denial about what will happen next. What if World War III has already started? Perhaps it began in Georgia, Moldova, and Syria. Perhaps in the future, the invasion of February 24 won’t be seen as the start, but as a key turning point.

It is obvious that Russia will not stop its crusade against democratic values and common sense in Ukraine. Russian propagandists have been talking about which country will be invaded next. Ukraine’s Defense Secretary Olexiy Danilov has said it might be Lithuania, a NATO member. Will NATO act only after Lithuania is invaded?

I don’t know. And I don’t call upon the peaceful nations of Europe to join our war either. All I can ask is that you think about your beloved cities and the people who might one day become Putin’s next targets.

The truth hurts. Much, much more of it at the link above.

Finally, here’s another excellent socio-cultural and historical pol-mil deep dive by Galeev. Just two quick points. First, like almost everyone, he botched the Chamberlain references. A review of the correspondence between Chamberlain and British military leadership including civilian leaders like Churchill, as well as the parliamentary record, makes it clear that Chamberlain, his government, the MOD, and the senior uniformed officers all knew what was coming and had developed a policy and strategy towards Hitler where the objective to be achieved was time. Specifically, Britain needed time to rearm for this coming war. Cold comfort to the Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, Jews, Gypsies, homosexuals, and the disabled, but Chamberlain wasn’t appeasing the way he is normally accused whose lives were the ways and means to achieve this objective.

Second, what Galeev leaves out of this, though he alludes to it, is that Putin has gone all in in pushing the fabricated history that the Russians are a divine race that originated in the arctic then came to Europe through the Kievan Rus. This rewrites the actual history of the Kyivan Rus and fuses it with something that is one part Aryan NAZIsm and one part North Korean Juche.

Do click across and read the whole thing.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

99Comments

  1. 1.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I can’t speak to the accuracy of the cause-and-effect here, but I gotta think between this…

    Alec Luhn @ASLuhn
    Russia is so toxic now that reports Putin asked Xi for military aid caused Chinese stocks to suffer their biggest drop since 2008. Chinese tech stocks lost $2.1 trillion today

    ….the reported spikes in Covid infection and the idea that Putin lied to Xi about his intentions, I wonder what Xi will do. I don’t think he’s likely to act as emotionally as Putin seems to be, but what the fuck do I know? (nothing). The writer is an environmental journalist and former Russia correspondent for the Guardian.

  2. 2.

    Gin & Tonic

    Two things. Minor first: the general usage is “Kyivan” not “Kyiven”. Larger, most Ukrainians are deeply skeptical of the Ovsiannikova stunt. Why was the headline on her sign in English?

  7. 7.

    Carlo Graziani

    Again, thank you, Adam. I organize my evenings around the arrival of these posts.

    Isn’t it remarkable what has happened to intelligence, and it’s use? Hoarding of “Sources and Methods” appears to be a thing of the past! How do they do that? However that may be, the new freedom with intelligence is an incredibly powerful tool. Like shining a floodlight on a cockroach-covered floor — watch them scuttle away!

    As you note, the Chinese can no longer trust any communication with Russia, and can’t assume “play both sides against the middle” is a remotely safe game to play, while the Russians have their most well-known national traits — paranoia, mutual suspicion, conspiracy — stimulated to the point of paralysis. I want popcorn for this part!

  9. 9.

    sanjeevs

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Philippines ready to back US if it gets embroiled in war

    Philippines ready to back US if it gets embroiled in war | AP News

     

    Duterte and his likely successor (Marcos) have been extremely friendly to China. Marcos also (sort of) backed away from China recently.

    If Xi overtly backs Russia, then he threatens the Chinese strategy of gaining influence throughout Asian democracies by similar methods that the Russians have used in the West  (troll farms, secret financial backing etc)

  10. 10.

    Ruckus

    @Gin & Tonic:

    So more people here would see without needed translation, in her own words.

    She wasn’t aiming the message at Russia, it was aimed at the US, at it’s citizens, in it’s language.

    That’s all I’ve got.

  11. 11.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    Thank you, Adam. I’ve been relying on your daily Ukraine resistance updates, much like I have Anne’s Covid updates for the past two years. I hope Russia can be beaten back soon, and in two years you can be posting about comics or something instead of updating us on an ongoing war for Ukraine.

  13. 13.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    Rumor has it the Russian Minster of the Defense is top runner for the Simon Cameron Award for Governance this year.

    So,are those Chines’ rations going to be shipped straight to the kleptocrats for efficient blackmarket resale or will the pretense be still continued?

  14. 14.

    TEL

    I can understand why Ukraine’s economy is being hit so hard, although they’ll have access to financial help that Russia won’t have. Is cutting off Russia from the majority of the world’s financial markets worth only 6% of their economy? Not to mention the expenditures on continuing the war in Ukraine? Or is most of their economy in oil?

  15. 15.

    Lyrebird

    @Comrade Bukharin:

    At the Bulwark link, they quote some people that I’ve seen linked here before, like Julia Davis and others.  On the biggest questions, what do I know?

    On smaller questions, it seems like they dismiss some important concerns.  Like they say:

    And if Biden says that Ukraine is not worth risking “WWIII”… will Americans think saving Latvia or Estonia is worth it?

    Unless I am mistaken, R’s conventional bombs can reach Latvia, Estonia, and Poland a lot easier than they can reach here.  What if the US does something that gives P a better excuse to rain missiles on Poland?  I am thinking not just of the Polish people and of whether NATO would break down but also about all those Ukrainian mamas and grandmas and babies that are in Poland to stay safer.  ETA: when some folks rush to say okay Americans are just being chicken here, that may be true, but I don’t hear those people considering the other countries likely to get invaded/bombed due to our actions.

    Adam and many commenters know far more, I am genuinely asking a question: did Serbian forces have a similar ability to threaten neighboring countries?

  16. 16.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @sanjeevs: If Xi overtly backs Russia, then he threatens the Chinese strategy of gaining influence throughout Asian democracies by similar methods that the Russians have used in the West (troll farms, secret financial backing etc)

    This sounds Chine trying to do the same to Russia. Troll farms to gain influence in democracies and blackmarket subsidies for kletpocrats.  I suspect the real reason it won’t work is because Putin wants the Soviet Union and that means China as the junior partner.

  18. 18.

    Bill Arnold

    That Kamil Galeev thread is fascinating[1] very interesting/helpful.

    [1] This fucker ruined that word for me. :-)

    Reminder that when you say something is “fascinating” you are actually saying you have been enchanted by this guy. Fascinus, the embodiment of the divine phallus. “Fascinate” derives from the Latin verb “fascinare” – meaning to bewitch through the magical power of the fascinus. pic.twitter.com/QABPED3Tfq
    — Gareth Harney (@OptimoPrincipi) February 26, 2022

  19. 19.

    The Oracle of Solace

    I still remain shocked that Russia escalated the conflict to the open use of troops—large numbers of troops—instead of using the threat of military action to extract maximum concessions. Putin was a teen when the USA went into Vietnam. He is old enough to remember what happened to the Soviets in Afghanistan. He was in charge when the USA went into Afghanistan and Iraq. He has seen with his own eyes what happens when great powers attack countries with populations the size of Ukraine’s. He has to have known that war is not as useful as the threat of war.

    Plus, he’s the head of a kleptocratic state. He has to have known that someone, somewhere was stealing the funds appropriated for force modernisation. As far as the large number of troops he sent to the border, I figured it was a large-scale readiness excercise—the Russian army hasn’t fought a substantial enemy since Afghanistan, and after Chechnya and Georgia they really really needed a large-scale operation to test their deployment capabilities. An exercise like that is something necessary, too, given that he replaced all the competent generals (because they were potential rivals for power) with unknown quantities.

    So I don’t know if I should be disappointed at being so naïve and guileless, or astonished at Putin’s overconfidence. Too many people are going to die because of his foolishness. I just want it to end.

  20. 20.

    Jay

    @Lyrebird:

    not really. Part of the “modernization” of the RuF since the 1980’s was a focus on long range strikes, air launched, artillery, MLRS’s and Naval.

  21. 21.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Lyrebird: No because the Serbs didn’t have nukes. What’s got us locked into a very low risk approach is not the power of Russia’s conventional forces. Rather it is the fear that Putin will use his nukes. As I wrote last night, this is a failure of the prevailing paradigm: mutual assured destruction (MAD). The whole point of the concept is that nuclear weapons states will mutually deescalate to avoid even accidental escalation to nuclear war. What is actually going on is that Putin is constantly escalating and our response is to constantly deescalate. That gives Putin the strategic advantage.

  22. 22.

    Comrade Bukharin

    @Lyrebird: Yes, Sykes seems to be saying feckless Biden wouldn’t defend Latvia or Estonia even though they are NATO members. I think that’s a ridiculous take.

  24. 24.

    Carlo Graziani

    With more seriousness. How does this end?

    It can’t possibly end on the battlefield in Ukraine, in my opinion. The heroes fighting for us in Ukraine are our local proxies. However, if thie war ends with some kind of stalemate in Ukraine, but Putinist Russia is still a going concern, we will have a long-term conflict on our hands, including a second Afghanistan in Ukraine (and I do not wish the fate of the Mujahideen resistance on even part of the Ukrainian population).

    Speaking the truth among ourselves, Putinist Russia has to go. This thing cannot be settled in Ukraine. It has to somehow be settled in Moscow. The screw must keep turning, no matter what. With respect to Adam, the sanctions, in all their manifestations, are everything. Nuclear threats should be strictly ignored, that I agree with — we just need not engage in needless military provocation, like shooting ordnance into Russian territory. China needs to be kept at arm’s length, respectfully, but firmly.

    Ultimately, though, I feel that there can be no compromise. Putin chose this fight, and took it to us. It is past time we finished it.

  25. 25.

    Calouste

    @Lyrebird: I don’t think Serbia had anything like that. They had some planes, but they wouldn’t have been a match to F-16s, and I don’t think they had any significant long range missile capacity. They could have fired some shells into northern Greece, but taking on NATO would not have been a good plan.

  27. 27.

    Mallard Filmore

    @The Oracle of Solace: 

    [Putin] has to have known that someone, somewhere was stealing the funds appropriated for force modernization.

    He did not become the richest man in the world by refusing to take his cut.

  28. 28.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Carlo Graziani: This:

    Ultimately, though, I feel that there can be no compromise. Putin chose this fight, and took it to us. It is past time we finished it.

    Cannot be solved or resolved with sanctions or economic measures or diplomacy. If Putin remains in power, the solutions are solely military and kinetic.

  29. 29.

    Lyrebird

    @Jay: @Adam L Silverman:

    Thanks to both of you for the clarifications, and as ever, thanks Adam for a hugely informative update.

    Who were those Muppets in the balcony?  I guess that’s my role, just commenting in a cranky fashion.

    I don’t see Ukrainians getting peace until P is deposed, and I also don’t see the world powers working out something to replace the failing MAD doctrine until P is deposed.

    Total respect to the Ukrainian fighters and protesters, looking death in the face and making their choices.  may this be over soon.

  31. 31.

    Dopey-o

    @Adam L Silverman: What is actually going on is that Putin is constantly escalating and our response is to constantly deescalate. That gives Putin the strategic advantage.

    Fiona Hill said that Putin will use nukes as a last resort. My question:

    If Russia sets off air-burst nukes over 2 or 3 Ukrainian cities, what will US / NATO do in response? Ukraine has no nukes, so their hands are tied. Will the utilities in Moscow and St Petersburg go off? All the banks in Russia suffer attacks? Warsaw may then be the next target.

    I fear that once Putin launches nukes, the war is effectively over.

  32. 32.

    Lyrebird

    @Comrade Bukharin: ​
    Yeah, the real situation is bad enough without adding in totally wrong cheap shots.
    @Calouste: ​
    Thanks.
    @Carlo Graziani: ​

    Putinist Russia has to go.

    Agreed. And without making him a martyr.

     

    ETA: further appreciation for Adam and the commentariat.  I will learn more in the morning.

  33. 33.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Adam L Silverman:

    If Putin remains in power, the solutions are solely military and kinetic.

    I don’t see China sitting still for NATO-USA taking out Russia militarily, the country of Russia breaking up into province-countries, nor do I see Putin backing down. That leaves removing Putin

    ETA:  Putin using nukes is zero divide.  Not-A-Number.  I hope Biden’s diplomats are working on China to agree on a response to that.

  35. 35.

    HumboldtBlue

    Adam, may I please beg you to cut down on the number of links in your posts? It’s an overwhelming amount of information in the first place, and it just slows the site down to a crawl. I’d be far happier reading your excellent analysis with fewer links, many have already been linked in previous threads or are from sources nearly everyone here as far as I can tell, follow or know of.

    Your interpretations, insights and summaries are far more interesting and informative and yes, I am complaining of having too much of a good thing and am a whinging twit, but I’d much rather read through your bullet points and takes on what we are watching in all of those clips and links than wading through each individually.

  36. 36.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Comrade Bukharin: We’re not going to. We’re not going to assume any risk. We’re going to continue to fight Putin to the last Ukrainian while celebrating their bravery and breaking our own arms patting ourselves on the back for our strategic foresight and restraint. Then because there’s too much money at stake, the sanctions will be relaxed and the cycle will start all over again.

  38. 38.

    Adam L Silverman

    I’m done for the night before I write something that hurts someone’s feelings.

  39. 39.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Comrade Bukharin:

    Ukrainians aren’t our proxies. They’re fighting for the survival of their own country.

    I was very lapidary in that comment. The Ukrainians are not, of course our military proxies. I have been attempting to make the case in a series of (admittedly disconnected) comments that at a higher level the Ukrainians are in a very real sense our political and cultural proxies.

    In that sense, they are fighting a sort of emblematic war that is ringing down the curtain on the post-Cold War period of smug, elitist idiocy that caused the West to collectively  forget why we cared about the values of the Enlightenment, and to invite assholes from Berlusconi to Trump to take over our politics. Zelenskyy, and “I need ammunition, not a ride!” are in this view the game-changing elements and moments that made the scales fall from Western eyes.

    So OK, actually, re-reading all of that, you’re right. The Ukrainians are not our proxies. They are our leaders.

  43. 43.

    phdesmond

    @Ruckus:

    She wasn’t aiming the message at Russia, it was aimed at the US, at it’s citizens, in it’s language.

    Its customary in clips that might reach a world audience that there be a sign or term in english.

  45. 45.

    Comrade Bukharin

    I think when all facts are known and the diplomatic history of this time is written, the Biden administration will come out looking very good.

  48. 48.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Adam L Silverman: 

    Cannot be solved or resolved with sanctions or economic measures or diplomacy. If Putin remains in power, the solutions are solely military and kinetic.

    This part I definitely disagree with. It expresses a strictly military view of the problem, but disregards the (admittedly more difficult to quantify) political dimensions.

    The point is that Putin does not have to remain in power. And, yes, I have also read the analyses by the experienced Russian political analysts, who don’t think he’s going anywhere. But I also remember all the experts who didn’t think Gorbachev, or the Soviet Union were going anywhere in 1991.

    And I’m pretty sure most of those experts are working from 4-month old information at best. I also think it’s very likely that large parts of the senior military ranks loathe Putin, a good part of the FSB doubt that the country has a future under him, and at least a few good old conspiracy-minded Russians in his inner circle are upholding their honorable, long-standing national traditions by indulging in a little light regicide plotting.

    So dismissing the pressure imposed by the complex of sanctions, as you do, is in my opinion a serious mistake. I guarantee you that Putin takes them very seriously.

  49. 49.

    PJ

    @Adam L Silverman: I have no insight into what is going on, or what might happen, beyond what I read on these here internets.  But Galeev makes the point time and again that the Russian army is compromised and debilitated by government corruption.  Supposedly 10% of their invading force is now out of commission – if they lose another 10 or 20%, how will they be able to advance, or even hold what they have gained?  Where will reinforcements come from?  Conscripts do not want to fight, and if they draw troops from other regions, they may well have other insurgencies on their hands.  The Russians have also lost more than 1000 vehicles according to documented accounts – how will they replace them?  A few thousand Syrians are not going to make much of a difference.  Where will they get technological imports from?  How will they pay for anything, when their foreign currency reserves are depleted?

    I don’t have answers to these questions, but they are being raised by people who have a lot more knowledge than I do. Galeev thinks the Russian Federation will collapse within a few months if the sanctions hold.  I know you have a more pessimistic outlook, but it seems like the longer the war goes on, the more the Russian Army loses, and the more power Putin loses.   (Of course, the longer the war goes on, the more Ukrainians will die, and the more their country will be destroyed.)

  50. 50.

    Carlo Graziani

    One last, light-hearted note. I shared this on a stale thread yesterday. Since it’s short and amusing, I’ll repost it here. It’s a joke making the rounds in Italy, sent by a friend there.

    Putin dies suddenly of “natural causes”, and is quite naturally routed directly to Hell. After a decade or so, however, he scores a Good Behavior day pass, and reappears in Moscow incognito. He steps into a bar for an aperitif. Hoping to catch up on current events, he asks the bartender “Excuse me friend, could you answer a geography question for me? Is Donbas ours?”

    “Da, ours,” confirms the bartender.

    Pleased, Putin asks “Oh! And what about Crimea?”

    “Ours as well.”

    Putin is starting to glow with pride. “And Kiev?”

    “Also ours,” the bartender replies, matter-of-factly.

    “So, it was all worth it!” Putin thinks to himself with satisfaction. He says to the bartender “Thank you, friend. What do I owe you for the drink?”

    “5 Euro.”

  51. 51.

    moops

    The world cannot continue to tolerate an imperialistic dictatorship Russia.    The discussion around the world right now should be pivoting to regime change.

  52. 52.

    Kent

    Yesterday my daughter texted me about the death of the NYT correspondent Brent Renaud.  What I did not know was that he was formerly a visiting professor at the University of Arkansas where she graduated with a degree in PR and Journalism in 2020.  During her time there she worked as his assistant and they collaborated (or she helped) on various projects.  He was my daughters mentor.

    Sometimes it is a very small world and Fuck Putin to hell.

  56. 56.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Dopey-o:

    Fiona Hill said that Putin will use nukes as a last resort.

    He may attempt to do so. Note, however, that the now-Russian (then-Soviet) military services that have actual custody of strategic nuclear weapons have a history of resistance against perceived Kremlin overreach.

    During the 1991 August coup against Gorbachev, the heads of the Soviet Air Force, Navy, and Strategic Rocket Forces informed Pavel Yazov, Defense Minister and one of the coup leaders, that they would decline to obey any launch order from the Kremlin until they regarded the political situation to be sorted out.

    Those services are the most highly technical in the Russian military, and they attract the most cognitively advanced officer class, according to William Odom’s “The Collapse of the Soviet Military”. There can be zero trust between those services and Putin’s gang of Cheka thugs. Given the history, I have very serious doubts that Putin could arrange much of a nuclear Valhalla for himself.

  58. 58.

    lol chikinburd

    If my feelings are hurt, it’s from being left out and not getting the security clearance everybody else apparently has given that they all know better than the people getting the daily intelligence briefings.

    I’m certain many such people have better qualifications to speak on this matter than I do personally.  I don’t think it’s the relevant point of comparison, particularly with the BIDEN ISS VEAK! narrative being churned up elsewhere.

  59. 59.

    dww44

    So so sorry to hear this news and my condolences to your daughter on her loss.  What a tragic senseless loss.  War is simply brutal, lethal, and hellish.

  60. 60.

    topclimber

    @Adam L Silverman: I don’t see the de-escalation you talk about. I see a consistent position that NATO will not go to war for Ukraine and that we will do all in our power to prevent Russia from winning.

    How exactly has Russia escalated since the start of the invasion except for a greater willingness to kill civilians and destroy infrastructure? Their campaign to directly occupy parts of Eastern Ukraine can be called political escalation; the military kind, not so much.

    Threats of nuclear weapons are bluster. China heads for the exits regarding any pact with Putin the moment he takes that step.

    Meanwhile, Russia’s sitz-krieg remains stuck on the road to Kyiv and there is a non-zero chance it will never get back to Russia, much less much further West, except via a ceasefire that sends them to the eastern oblasts.

  61. 61.

    topclimber

    @Carlo Graziani: Do you think Putin is easier to remove in the middle of a war, when he can still exploit Russian nationalism, or after he has had to settle for a face-saving diplomatic solution that gives him portions of Eastern Ukraine, bought for by great damage to his economy and the world’s (but mostly his)?

    I hope such a deal is possible soon, so that the loser stink can start to pervade Putin’s inner circle right quick.

  62. 62.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Russia asking China for MREs, of all things, is just bizarre. I could actually believe the Chinese government “initially expressed some openness” to the idea, but now that it is out in they open, there is zero upside to going through w/ it. Whatever Chinese MREs that are not siphoned off by the oligarchs will have trouble reaching the frontlines due to sh*tty Russian logistics. So China ends up w/ all the consequences of open alignment w/ Putin, but w/o any discernible impact to the battlefield in Ukraine. If Xi’s approves sending even MREs to Russia under current circumstances, it would be foreign policy malpractice of the highest order.

    I agree w/ Adam that the series of articles in western MSM concerning Sino-Russian interactions leading up to & following the Russian invasions really feels like deliberate & targeted leaks by the Biden Administration to gain advantage vis-à-vis China in the information/discourse environment – impose a bit of repetitional price on China for its enhanced (rhetorical) alignment w/ Russian from before the Winter Olympics & ongoing amplification of Russian CT/propaganda, attempt to dissuade China from even considering taking any actions to actively support Putin, while not pushing so far as to risk driving China into firm alliance w/ Putin. Pretty impressive display of tactical skill. (& I am very critical of Biden team’s China/Indo-Pacific policy in general, because it does not really have one, other than continuing the momentum of the hodgepodge of the disjointed, incoherent, contradictory tactical actions inherited from the Trump Administration, w/ overly myopic emphasis on national security that is defined so broadly as to be meaningless.)

    BTW, these disclosures may also give China the excuse to refuse any further requests from Putin – it is clear that the Russian side cannot maintain confidentiality of any kind, & China wants to keep a very low profile.

    I think it is likely the leaks are coming from the Russian side. Apparently the CIA is still trying to recover from having its entire network of informants in the orbit of Chinese leadership rolled up in the early teens by Ministry of State Security. Surely American & Western intelligence agencies have been trying reestablish penetration over the past several years, but if there are any notable successes I suspect the CIA will want to guard it very closely to avoid a repeat.

    Apparently in the 90s & 00s the CIA was able to take advantage of the collectivist style of CCP leadership (meaning a lot of people were connected to the group of leaders involved in policy making & decision making) & rampant corruption at all levels to build a strong network informants, & enabling the advancement of these informants by providing them w/ the money to bribe their ways into promotions, to the point that US policy makers had decent visibility into the thinking of Chinese leadership on a range of issues. It all came crashing down in the early teens (whether due to poor CIA tradecraft or Chinese agents in USGov has never been publicly confirmed). It appears the espionage environment in Xi years is much more challenging: policy/decision making is now centralized to Xi & his inner circle (meaning far fewer people would have access), the anti-corruption campaign has put a severe crimp on buying promotions (especially at higher levels), the construction of an intense & elaborate surveillance environment has challenged traditional tradecraft (not just the ubiquitous CCTV cameras enabled w/ AI, but also a high degree of visibility into financial transactions.) Now USGov officials complain (anonymously) to MSM that it is very difficult to gain insight into Xi’s thinking. It also has the perverse effects of heightening tensions, because if you have no information, you mind fills the vacuum w/ speculations & fears of the worst.

  63. 63.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Chinese tech stocks are dropping due to a combination of factors:

    1. Stock markets globally has been sliding in recent weeks
    2. COVID-19 outbreaks causing Shenzhen & large parts of Dongguan to go into lockdown, that is the global hub for consumer electronics manufacturing
    3. Sentiments toward Chinese internet tech companies have been quite fragile for over a year, due to the Chinese government’s relentless effort to rein in these entities & their monopolistic practices, efforts that have paid little deference to the tender feelings of capital; so it does not take much set off a sell off
    4. Both Chinese financial regulators & the US SEC have been squeezing the space for legally grey entities that Chinese tech companies have set up to go IPO in US stock markets; many of them may ultimately have to delist from the US markets & re-list in Hong Kong or elsewhere

    Unless China actually goes ahead w/ providing direct aid (even non-lethal/non-military aid) to Russia, I don’t see that as a meaningful factor.

  66. 66.

    Calouste

    @Carlo Graziani: I’ve been reading a bit recently about the 20 July plot, which almost succeeded in killing Hitler. What amazed me was that there were so many people involved, and so many highups, and the planning had been going on for about two years. There was a complete shadow government ready to go, and they were actually making arrests until it became clear the attempt had failed. About 20 generals were involved (most of them were executed in the aftermath), and about 8,000 people were arrested on suspicion of involvement.

    So we don’t know exactly what is going on in Russia’s power centers at the moment, but it would be surprising if nothing is going on. A former foreign minister and a former deputy prime minister have come out publicly against the war, which might be a sign of something brewing.

  68. 68.

    Feathers

    Apparently Koch Industries is still operating in Russia. They didn’t honor sanctions against Iran either. Link

    Adam, thanks for doing these threads. And please keep the links. So important to see where everything is coming from.

  69. 69.

    terry chay

    @Lyrebird: What is so wrong about this take is that she ascribes all agency to the United States and none to the rest of NATO. Yes, the U.S. is the military might, but NATO is a defense treaty, not one owned by the U.S. and this war is in Europe, not here.

    Her criticism should be directed at the rest of NATO as well as the parts of EU not yet members. If they wanted U.S. to escalate, we most likely would follow.

    In the coming years, no matter what the outcome, that is the way the alliance will unfold. Germany increasing their defense spend is just the first of many instances of that change in dynamic. One that the U.S. has been angling for for well over a decade, possibly two.

  70. 70.

    terry chay

    @Dopey-o: If Putin uses nukes it is MAD, it is irrelevant where they are used because there is no way to react otherwise.

    Putin won’t do this because he is a bully and a coward. There’s a story about him stealing Robert Kraft’s Super Bowl ring because he could (and as much as I hate Robert Kraft, what’s he going to do, start an international incident over a ring?). It shows what a total pathetic turd Putin is.

    People like that aren’t going to start a nuclear war because they fear for their own lives.

    In some ways, he’s more predictable than TFG. The surprise, if there is one, about the recent re-invasion of Ukraine is solely due to the bad self-informed intelligence he got because of despotic structure he built up. Heck, we could talk ourselves into a war of choice in Iraq in under a year using a structure that was only two years old. Imagine what a shit show Russia is after 20+ years of Putin and a system totally centered around him.

    Militarily, it must be frustrating to know that every time we stand up, he folds and to see us not play the hand we are dealt here maximally. But there is a lot going on on a global scale. What sort of impacts would happen if we were to escalate? Would China then feel green lit to provide more aid to Russia and flaunt the economic sanctions? Would the economic sanctions crumble? Would the recent movement toward EU and NATO pause? Would it even turn the balance in Ukraine (a lot of the worst missile strikes and worst hit areas are being hit from Russia)? etc. What would that “escalation” look like? I have no idea but things are not so simple at all.

    What I have seen is that Putin declared that NATO not reverting to 1990’s was an act of war, that us arming Ukraine is a declaration of war, that blocking access to SWIFT was an act of war, that economic sanctions are an act of war. We haven’t reversed course on any of those four. And yet, people are act as if not imposing a No Fly Zone in Ukraine (for it to be effective, we’d have to impose it over parts of Russia too) is a sign we are caving to Putin’s nuclear war card. And yet, this was a line we drew before the fighting restarted. Fighting we seemed to know was going to happen (and loudly predicted) before anyone else. Seems we are being consistent to our lines, not Putins.

  71. 71.

    Ruckus

    @Carlo Graziani:

    The world is not yet done with it’s current structure.

    It will continue to hopefully get notably better at realizing that the world is made up of actual humans, not all of whom think reasonably about their neighbors and that we are now in a world where we are all neighbors, like it or not, and that the means to destroy the world a few times over are within short reach for people who have zero desire to understand that the old ways really do have to be stored in the history books. We are at a divide in human history, and yes that sentence, or one like it, has been stated before, but the last 75 yrs has brought the concept of steal and demand, and crush and conquer, past it’s limit. Nine to ten billion people can not live in that world, and no one has the right to take that life away from them. I have no idea how that concept is going to get through to those that think they have the right to plunder and kill. I don’t know that anyone will ever be able to get that idea across. But billions upon billions depend on not having continuous warfare. Like it or not we live on one planet and that one planet works far better when we aren’t trying to steal from and kill each other for money or what the hell ever. One man’s deranged psyche can no longer be the end all be all. It has to end.

  73. 73.

    cazador

    @feathers Couldn’t agree more with your second paragraph. Please keep all the links, Adam. There is a lot of stuff happening every day and this is the best source on the subject. Nobody ever asked newspapers to print less articles because it weighed too much to carry.

    Thanks again for doing these.

  74. 74.

    NotMax

    Guess who’s coming to Cancun.

    Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to punishing sanctions from the U.S. and its allies, the United States was already seeing an increase in Russian asylum-seekers. More than 8,600 Russians sought refuge on the U.S. border with Mexico from August through January — 35 times the 249 who did so during the same period a year earlier. Nine in 10 used official border crossings in San Diego.

    Migrants from other former Soviet republics follow the same route in lower numbers, though some authorities are now anticipating more Ukrainians. The U.S. admitted a Ukrainian family of four on humanitarian grounds Thursday after twice blocking her [sic].

    Russians do not need visas to visit Mexico, unlike the U.S. Many fly from Moscow to Cancun, entering Mexico as tourists, and go to Tijuana, where they pool money to squeeze into cars they buy or rent. Adrenaline rushes as they approach San Diego’s San Ysidro border crossing, where about 30,000 cars enter the United States daily.
    [snip]
    While Moscow to Cancun is the most common route, some Russians fly from Amsterdam or Paris to Mexico City and then go to Tijuana…. Source

    That last paragraph is telling. Not a lot of other airlines currently flying into or out of Moscow’s airport, AFAIK (if forced to guess, maybe some airlines based in the Middle East still offering curtailed service?). So apparently Mexico has not yet denied Russian planes overflight and landing privileges?

  75. 75.

    egorelick

    Ukraine has take over a trillion dollars of damage, thousands of lives lost, and documented war crimes. (I deliberately put the money issue first because some believe that drives everything.) I can see no diplomatic or military solution that doesn’t involve a dead Putin. Hopefully, that happens before he launches a nuke.

  76. 76.

    Armadillo

    Can anyone read the text written across the top of the header image? The young woman in traditional dress with a combat shotgun? It’s in some type of  Cyrillic script, I assume Ukrainian.

  77. 77.

    Winston

    @NotMax: A tweet yesterday said that Serbia is still flying to and from Moscow and from there Russians can go anywhere. But who really knows?

  80. 80.

    Winston

    @Mallard Filmore: I’ve been looking up information on the internet about that today. Maybe a lot of their arsenal is in disrepair and they don’t have that many subs that we  couldn’t take out and that we still have some anti missile missiles. And just maybe they are bluffing with a broken flush and we have a full house

    They are a sadistic thieving mob who like to inflict pain and suffering on others. What would Elliot Ness think?

  81. 81.

    Jay

    @Winston:

    currently what is known about Russian ( not Soviet) nuclear doctrine is that their belief is that use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons when faced with Conventional Military setbacks, will cause NATO to retreat and negotiate.

    NATO doctrine is to match, pause, then eliminate.

    in the current world, Russian Nuclear Policy is insane, backed by  20 years of “Yes Men” telling Pootie-Poot that “this will work”, while selling everything not nailed down on the Black Market.

  82. 82.

    Winston

    @Jay: Russia has pushed their stack into the pot. All 230 dollars of their worth. If we don’t call we are crazy. We should raise.

  83. 83.

    Jay

    @Winston:

    raise means Nuclear Winter, global death. Everybody dies.

    the issue is are Russian nuclear threats an empty hand bluff, or not.

    so NATO is doing what NATO does, which is:

    -A). Ignore it, on the ground,

    -B). Worry in many ways about it because are they really that insane?

  84. 84.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    @Winston: You know the saying about how a Smith and Wesson will beat four aces? I think Putin plays from that rule book.

    And we’re very near the point where the game we’re playing is no longer poker, but DEFCON, and there’s only one way that game ends.

  85. 85.

    Jay

    In a pre-recorded speech Pootie Poot threatened the use of nukes and raised the RUF Nuclear Forces to alert level 11, “Imaginary Pokemon Monster”,

    the response from the Russian Nuclear Forces to that command was “Yuri, put the kettle on, let’s have some more tea and play another round of Scrabble”.

  87. 87.

    debbie

    @HumboldtBlue:

    Just stop that.

    ETA: If the information is important enough to you, sit back, let the screen do its freakout, and then read. Or prioritize: read the text through, then go back and look at the tweets. My laptop goes nuts reloading or whatever, so I wait. It’s well worth it. Stop whining.

  89. 89.

    Geminid

    There has been more reporting on Sunday’s rocket attack on Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region of Iraq. It seem that the new U.S. Consulate was probably not the target, but rather it was an Israeli intelligence facility that the Iranian missiles were aimed at. Iran admits it fired the missiles at an Israeli target, and now the New York Times says a senior U.S. official confirms this. Also, the Times of Israel reports that there was an Israeli drone strike last month on an Iranian airbase near the western city of Keramshah. The strike destroyed a number of Iranian drones, and apparantly Iran’s missile attack was retaliation for it.

    So this latest attack doesn’t seem to be a message regarding the Ukraine war or even the JCPOA, but rather is another round in the undeclared war Israel and Iran have been fighting for some years.

  90. 90.

    Sloane Ranger

    My feeling is that the red line for those in charge of Russian nuclear armaments is NATO troops entering Russian national borders. I don’t think they’d obey orders to fire if NATO actively supported Ukraine by sending troops, particularly in training/logistics roles.

    But, the question then becomes what happens next. In the past they’ve gotten away with ignoring Kremlin orders because there’s been a genuine leadership struggle at the top and they could claim they didn’t know who they should be taking orders from. This isn’t the case here. Putin is very clearly in charge, at least for now.

    If his order to use nukes were ignored or disobeyed, what is to stop him from sending his thugs to take over the nuclear bases and firing the missiles? Surely if you have the launch codes it’s just a question of pushing a button or flicking some switches?

  91. 91.

    NotMax

    @Sloane Ranger

    Not all those units are primed and fueled at any one time, much less armed. Then there’s the question of launch at what? Where? Targeting must be programmed, and that isn’t a procedure performed willy-nilly.

  93. 93.

    Sloane Ranger

    @NotMax: I’m sure that shooting some techs/programmers will encourage the others to cooperate. Plus, we know where your family lives, it would be a shame if anything happened to them, can be a great motivator.

  94. 94.

    lee

    The Pentagon is not clear on whether any Americans there as volunteers for the Ukrainian effort were there. It’s not something they are tracking, the senior U.S. defense official says.

    From what I’ve seen there were a few US personnel there. None injured or killed.

    The one thing I have no gotten a good handle on is the status of the flow of volunteers to Ukraine.

  95. 95.

    Marcus

    @Carlo Graziani: I think you and Adam are both right your difference is Time. Economic sanctions work long term if your aim is a future military option. No military option – long term the money will be to great to pass up

    Stupid question: what would happened if the military strategy would be war of attrition but ONLY in the Ukraine territory based on humanitarian grounds….i know the nukes fear story… But Putin winning this long term will have consequences in the type of governments (Dictatorships from the right) forming around the world…you see signs in the US, Britain, France – all related to immigration based on the OTHER while birthing Oligarchs in creating market monopolies worldwide

    This as the smell of what started WWI

  96. 96.

    Calouste

    @Sloane Ranger: 
    Not really in this case. We go and arrest your family isn’t much of a motivator if the other choice is your family dies in the nuclear counter strike.

  97. 97.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Marcus: There is a precedent: the US bled the Soviet Army — and damned near the Soviet Union — to the point of near-collapse in Afghanistan. There were US personnel on the ground providing intelligence support and weapons (Stingers, famously, but other small arms as well). This was also a war on a (USSR) national border, and it pissed the Soviets off to no end. But there was no credible nuclear threat to be made, so none was made.

    [That’s the thing about the logic of nuclear sabre-rattling that really isn’t any different now than it was from 1949 to 1991: first use is also suicide. So no such threat is credible unless it is made by a party facing an existential threat anyway. This is undoubtedly the reason that led the Biden administration to decline to raise nuclear alert levels when Putin blustered last time. It was a correct decision — the threat was an empty bluff, the Russian alert status never actually changed.]

    That aside, however, I feel that it would be a tragedy if we could do no more for Ukraine than turn it into an Afghanistan-style bleeding wound and body-bag sink for Russia. The human cost to Afghanis of that war was appalling, and the political sequelae need no belaboring.

    I am — perhaps naively — more optimistic than most about the time remaining on the clock for Putin’s reign, so long as catastrophic sanctions continue to be visited on Russia. The “normal constitutional process” of succession in Russia is the coup. Orderly transitions are an exception.

    I believe that Putin might have survived for a long time had he continued to make incremental nibbles, opportunistic grabs, smaller-scale actions applying Russia’s strengths to points of Western weakness — as, one must ruefully admit, he did brilliantly by undermining US politics by underwriting key characters like Trump. But in Ukraine he showed that he is in fact a reckless gambler rather than a shrewd tactician, and with that crazy gamble I believe that he has put his immediate personal future in danger.

    Of course I could be wrong about this, I’m reading the same tea leaves that everyone else is. But I’ll stick my neck out, so that I can be proved wrong. July 1. I can’t see either Russia’s economy or Russia’s Army in Ukraine still standing up by then. If Putin still has a pulse on July 1, I was wrong.

  99. 99.

    Marcus

    @Carlo Graziani: i agree

    The sanctions will work as long as the allied country’s don’t politically fracture domestically.

    The Brexit/Trump is not something that came out of nowhere…The British & US senate have there fair share of Putin disciples

    I’m saying now…politically Biden needs to say the US is in Ukraine in an advisory role (baby steps) helping Ukraine (i know informal clearance with NATO)

    Off topic: Glenn Greenwald is a Putin asset…the comedy that he played with Julian Assange could never of taken off without Putin approval

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