Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

Let’s show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

Democracy cannot function without a free press.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about it’s history.”

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

We won’t go back.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

The current Supreme Court is a dangerous, rogue court.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

You are here: Home / War in Ukraine / President Biden on the Assistance the US is Providing to Ukraine at 11:45 (LIVE)

President Biden on the Assistance the US is Providing to Ukraine at 11:45 (LIVE)

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The President delivers remarks on the assistance the United States is providing to Ukraine; the Secretary of State, the Deputy Secretary of Defense, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff attend.

The media is saying that Biden will announce another 1 billion dollars in aid to Ukraine.

I wonder what else we will be announcing.  Stay tuned.

Reader Interactions

168Comments

  1. 1.

    Alison Rose ???

    I just hope for no “we will no way no how never ever put a single US boot on the ground no no no” because while I understand why we won’t, the repetition of this is starting to grate on me. Like…they get it, we can stop dumping salt into the wound now

    ETA: On the whole, I very much appreciate Biden’s leadership on this crisis. Just that one thing has been bugging me.

  6. 6.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    It’s not about our feelings, though. I’d rather feel guilty than set off WWIII.

  11. 11.

    Jeffro

    Um did I read correctly that The Turtle said “President Biden needs to step up his game” with regard to helping Ukraine?

    (trying not to let my head explode if that’s true)

  12. 12.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @topclimber:  Please to deploy a rusty implement in unnatural ways. (Assuming you are not using snark; if you are, then please to stand down.)

    edited.

  13. 13.

    Tdjr

    The Ukrainians keep asking us to close the skies. We say no. I’m tired of that conversation too.

  15. 15.

    MazeDancer

    Wanted to make sure I didn’t miss Mr. Biden’s remarks. But not enjoying waiting by watching live TV.

    Then I thought, oh, I bet WaterGirl will put up a thread. Can come whenever, and still see it all.

    And here tis. Thanks for the public service, WG.

  16. 16.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Tdjr: Zelenskyy offered an alternative to closing skies in his speech to Congress, namely more weapons, which the US will give.

  17. 17.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    On Sky News, this just popped up:

    https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news-putin-zelenskyy-peace-talks-nato-live-updates-12541713

    The Russian president has been speaking after President Zelenskyy addressed US Congress.
    Mr Putin hasn’t mentioned President Zelenskyy’s speech where he repeated his calls for the US to impose a no-fly zone, but has been hitting out at the West for having “geopolitical aims which don’t include a strong independent Russia”.
    He added that the West is trying to “cancel” Russia.
    Mr Putin also said the West would not succeed in what he called its attempt to achieve global dominance and dismember Russia.
    If the West thinks that Russia will step back, it does not understand Russia, the Russian president said.
    Earlier in the speech Mr Putin said Russia doesn’t want to occupy Ukraine.
    He added Russia didn’t have any other option but to carry out what he has called a special military operation.
    Mr Putin went on to claim he had “no other option for the security of Russia” than to carry out what he has called the “special military operation” in Ukraine.
    He added that Ukraine had planned aggression against Russia that would be been backed by Western powers.
    He also said Western powers want to create an “anti-Russia” and do not care about the Ukrainian people.
    Mr Putin added that the West is pushing Ukraine to “continue the bloodshed” by supplying it with arms.

    Translation: He’s getting his ass kicked.

  18. 18.

    Urza

    I just spent 5 minutes on a twitter thread from the last Balloon Juice thread. I now feel the civilized world should start nuclear war to destroy the Twitter servers and save us all.  No wonder the world is going downhill so fast with that as a primary method of communication.

  20. 20.

    Wapiti

    @Jeffro: Turtles wants to swagger? Well, congress can declare war. Let him convince the Senate to pass their resolution first.

  24. 24.

    Ella in New Mexico

    As for “no boots on the the ground, ever” statements I have listened to some very smart and capable Russia experts and US Nat Sec professionals in interviews who say continuing to announce we’ll never cross that line is what is convincing Putin he’ll face no consequences for what he’s doing, just as in Russia’s past aggressions.

    They feel he’s played the “Nuke” card very well over the years with absolutely NO intention of using them because it literally scares the shit out of the west and immobilizes us.

    They think we should just STFU in that regard, make no statements about US/NATO troops entering Ukraine, stay more mysterious and start making him wonder if maybe we have moved beyond being terrorized by his threats.

    I have to say I agree with them. Putin is evil and he’s lost his mind at this point. He wants Ukraine and if he can’t have her no one will. He will hunker down and deal with economic sanctions for a long time, but he just doesn’t care. He’ll annhilate every living Ukrainian citizen and break every single war crime law in the process because he believes no one in the West will stop him.

    We have to change his assumptions.

  27. 27.

    MisterDancer

    The Ukrainians have every damn right to ask — every hour on the hour if they want — for air interdiction. Saying “no” while keeping things running smooth is the point of having a whole-assed State Department! Indeed, under normal circumstances we folx never hear about all these asks.

    Our GOP, on the other hand, can sit the fuck down. The GOP deliberately enabled this situation, then shut down any attempt to penalize the person working to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty, only because he got them votes and political power. Now that that chicken has come home to roost, they can at least be silent and let the adults do the work, not whine because their 5 Minute hate is getting interrupted with The Truth, for once.

  30. 30.

    zhena gogolia

    @MisterDancer: This, all of this.

    I am so furious about how people yawned through the first impeachment, then those assholes acquitted him, and NOW they can find Ukraine on a map. Fuck them.

  35. 35.

    WaterGirl

    @zhena gogolia:

    NOW they can find Ukraine on a map.

    Pretty sure Republicans think that was “the other” Ukraine, nothing to see here, that is ancient history, nothing to do with what’s happening today.

    *or hope their followers ares so stupid that they cannot make the connection.

  36. 36.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @zhena gogolia:

    I am so furious about how people yawned through the first impeachment, then those assholes acquitted him, and NOW they can find Ukraine on a map. Fuck them.

    QFT. Especially about the acquitting assholes.

  38. 38.

    Another Scott

    I assume that the delays in the remarks mean that things are going on in the background, trying to get the language exactly right, trying to make sure NATO and Zelenskyy are on the same page (as much as possible), etc. But it’s annoying to have to wait…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  39. 39.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @schrodingers_cat: Not zg, but Simon Sebag Montefiore’s The Romanovs is a pretty good read and has good reviews.  FWIW, it also has a blog connection as I believe that the author is a cousin of Tom Levenson.

  43. 43.

    sdhays

    @Ella in New Mexico: I’m at that point too, although it’s easier for me to decide since my opinion doesn’t affect what happens. But letting Russia have its way because it threatens to go crazy isn’t really sustainable.

  45. 45.

    zhena gogolia

    @schrodingers_cat: Of course, the best thing is to read Russian literature. Pushkin, Gogol (he was Ukrainian but wrote in Russian), Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, and although I don’t like Turgenev, he’s good for giving a sense of the history. For 20th century, Bulgakov, Akhmatova, Tsvetaeva, Mandelstam, Platonov, Pasternak, and although I haven’t read him, I hear good things about Vasily Grossman.

  48. 48.

    Mike in NC

    Before today I had never heard of these “switchblade” drones. They should give the Ukrainians as many as they can ship, but first test one out on Tucker Carlson’s mansion..

  49. 49.

    laura

    @schrodingers_cat: I just finished Tim Snyder’s the Bloodlands – I think based on a rec by Miss Bianca. It was so very heavy and my takeaway was why anyone, anywhere would invade Ukraine and not expect resistance to the last person. The lady who told russian soldiers to put sunflower seeds in their pockets knows from what she speaks. It is less of a history of the region and more of an accounting of the use of terror as an official policy.

  51. 51.

    Bill Arnold

    @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:

    It’s not about our feelings, though. I’d rather feel guilty than set off WWIII.

    This. Let’s say that we are selfish people who don’t give a shit about any country other than Ukraine, about 1/2 of one percent of the world population. How many people in Ukraine would die if there were a global thermonuclear war? 10 million of 44? 20 million of 44? If so, a 1 percent increased chance of thermonuclear war is equivalent to 100-200K Ukrainian deaths, weighted-averaged across future timelines. (And lower casualty estimates for thermonuclear war one sees bandied about are bullshit (a few seasons of northern hemisphere crop failures, ++) and in part disinformation to help make the US look crazier to the Russians during the cold war for cold warrior reasons. (They did the same to their own population of course.) )

  59. 59.

    Leto

    @Ella in New Mexico:

    We have to change his assumptions.

    But we won’t. He’ll continue to do this because the nuclear blackmail card is too strong. It also reinforces Adam’s posit that non-nuclear proliferation is dead. Ukraine will always be the example. Doesn’t matter how expensive it is, how ruinous to the world it is, if that’s the only way to ensure a psychotic dictator (in which we have many) doesn’t invade, well that’s what they’re going to do. I hope Taiwan is following this closely and making proper plans.

  61. 61.

    Brachiator

    @Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:

    He added that the West is trying to “cancel” Russia.

    He also said Western powers want to create an “anti-Russia” and do not care about the Ukrainian people.

    Kanye West Putin. Much of this speech is like a perverse parody of themes and comments that have popped up in American media.

    Translation: He’s getting his ass kicked

    I read this as more that Putin is determined to subjugate Ukraine despite any Western objections.

  62. 62.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    y’all saw HRC’s response to being sanctioned by the Kremlin?

    Hillary Clinton @HillaryClinton  Mar 15

    I want to thank the Russian Academy for this Lifetime Achievement Award.

    and Robert Reich has been off teh rails for years

  63. 63.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Mike in NC: I think the US just needs to take the advice of the Pot Brothers and just shut the fuck up about what is being supplied or not. Let the Russians guess.

  65. 65.

    WaterGirl

    @Soprano2: Things are happening behind the scenes, ducks are being lined up all in a row, it’s all good.

    If you haven’t watched this video, it’s a great 10 minutes.

  70. 70.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Tom Levenson: I was given The Romanovs and one of his novels set in 1950’s Moscow for Christmas a couple of years ago.  I haven’t gotten to the novel yet.

  72. 72.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Gin & Tonic: 100% agree. Why do people think the public should have all information on a freaking war? Don’t people understand the value of keeping the enemy in the dark? (Yeah, I know, stupid questions, but still….)

  73. 73.

    trnc

    @Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:

    Mr Putin added that the West is pushing Ukraine to “continue the bloodshed” by supplying it with arms.

    Translation: He’s getting his ass kicked.

    Maybe Biden should send Vlad a private cable that says, “After Ukraine has it’s way with the military you’ve been stealing from for years, we’ll walk into the Kremlin and start measuring for drapes. See you in a month.”

  74. 74.

    Bill Arnold

    @sdhays:

    But letting Russia have its way because it threatens to go crazy isn’t really sustainable.

    This is bullshit. The Russian economy is in collapse. Russia internationally is on the path to becoming a hermit state like North Korea, and like NK, a vassal of China. (Their choice, really, either way.) Russian wealthy people and their assets are targets.
    Ukraine, in large part with well-armed infantry, halted a large armored invasion of their country by a nuclear (self-proclaimed) superpower. Putin is at great personal risk (including his life) if he cannot somehow spin a win out of his brutal imperialist invasion of a much smaller neighboring country.

  77. 77.

    Soprano2

    @WaterGirl: Thanks, but it’s hard for me to watch videos at work; easy to listen. I have my GIS map smaller over the Web site waiting for the video to start while I listen to the OBoys podcast. LOL I know why they’re delayed, it’s just a little annoying.

  79. 79.

    MazeDancer

    Continued props to Mr. Zelenskyy’s Com Shop.

    Each day, another world-inspiring speech, different than the ones given before.

    And that video!

    Communicatins-wise Uktaine is exactly like their army, they cannot be stopped.

    He had to know that whatever he asked for after the “if you can’t do no-fly”, he was going to get. Mr. Biden about to announce just how much.

  82. 82.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Omnes Omnibus: That’s my assumption too, and that’s how it should be. Biden is a pro and surrounded by pros. Like anyone, they can make mistakes, but I’m confident they’re doing a ton behind the scenes to support Ukraine. To suggest that what we’re seeing is all that they’re doing is silly.

    ETA: Unlike TFG’s vomitous output, I believe that Biden and his team know the value of what should be made public and to what end, and what should not.

  83. 83.

    Bill Arnold

    The War Prayer (Mark Twain)

    With shut lids the preacher, unconscious of his presence, continued his moving prayer, and at last finished it with the words, uttered in fervent appeal, “Bless our arms, grant us the victory, O Lord and God, Father and Protector of our land and flag!”
    The stranger touched his arm, motioned him to step aside—which the startled minister did—and took his place. During some moments he surveyed the spellbound audience with solemn eyes, in which burned an uncanny light; then in a deep voice he said:
    “I come from the Throne—bearing a message from Almighty God!” The words smote the house with a shock; if the stranger perceived it he gave no attention. “He has heard the prayer of His servant your shepherd, and will grant it if such be your desire after I, His messenger, shall have explained to you its import—that is to say, its full import.
    …
    For our sakes who adore Thee, Lord, blast their hopes, blight their lives, protract their bitter pilgrimmage, make heavy their steps, water their way with their tears, stain the white snow with the blood of their wounded feet!
    We ask it, in the spirit of love, of Him Who is the Source of Love, and Who is the ever-faithful refuge and friend of all that are sore beset and seek His aid with humble and contrite hearts. Amen.
    (After a pause.) “Ye have prayed it; if ye still desire it, speak! The messenger of the Most High waits.”
    —
    It was believed afterward that the man was a lunatic, because there was no sense in what he said.

  84. 84.

    Brachiator

    @O. Felix Culpa:

    Don’t people understand the value of keeping the enemy in the dark? (Yeah, I know, stupid questions, but still….)

    I think that Adam has noted that the Biden administration has released some information to counter Russian misinformation efforts. But this is very selective.

  85. 85.

    Frank Wilhoit

    @Urza: For centuries, the public discourse was maintained by very strict gatekeeping — based upon the cost of “publication” (in whatever form) and upon the exclusivity of closed communities.  This caused harm and resentment, but the harm was only perceived and the resentment only felt by small disempowered groups, so no one cared.

    Now comes “social media”, and essentially overnight, not only has the gatekeeping been abandoned, but the mere idea that gatekeeping might be feasible and/or beneficial has utterly vanished from the collective memory.

    The flip side is that in the new environment, everyone has a veto.

    Proposals to address the problem are more than welcome, but go big, do not start with pinpricks.

  87. 87.

    MazeDancer

    Guessing Mr. Biden is delayed by the additional items he is adding for Mr. Zelenskyy.

    “That, too. And some more of those. Did you see that video? Add ’em in!”

  88. 88.

    SiubhanDuinne

    I was in class and missed Biden’s speech, and the link above isn’t taking me to it. Is there another site where I can stream it?

  98. 98.

    Alison Rose ???

    @stacib: You’re making inferences that I did not imply. I specifically said I understand why the stance is repeated and that I appreciate Biden’s leadership. My issue is simply that I don’t think it needs to be as vehement at this point anymore, and that I can imagine how hearing it stated as such could be hurtful to Ukrainians.

  100. 100.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Urza: I haven’t deleted my Twitter account but I started logging out of Twitter when I’m done with it, and the extra step to log back in makes me stop and think before I reflexively spend more time there.

    It’s improved my life. There are so many people I like who comment there. But the format itself sometimes drives even the best tweeters toward panic and obsessive fault-finding. And the good people who spend their lives fighting the worst people on Twitter end up driving you straight into reading the worst people on Twitter.

  101. 101.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Alison Rose ???: While I prefer that he didn’t need to say it, I assume that he’s speaking to multiple audiences across the world and that he thinks that it’s important for at least one of those audiences to hear it.

  102. 102.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Frank Wilhoit: I think Twitter has special problems even by the standards of social media because of its format–the way everything is broken into 280-character chunks and every chunk has the possibility of being easily decontextualized and serving as the jumping-off point for a new thread. You can do something like that in any medium but Twitter actually makes it the default way to participate in a discussion. The format also valorizes pithy comebacks and one-liners over thoughtful essays, which can only be posted through awkward technical workarounds.

    Facebook would actually not be as bad except that it’s controlled by bad people. I guess the incentive to maximize “engagement” drives everything in a bad direction.

  104. 104.

    Ella in New Mexico

    @Leto: I’d at least like the West to start sending the message that things are not status quo from the past 20 years and that we’re reconsidering our options.

    He’s run amok so long he thinks it’s permanent. We all see him as backed into a corner with no way out but the truth is he’s not backed in tight enough. We need to at least try a BIT harder to make him scared.

    And hey, even Hitler accepted he’d lost at some point and stepped out in the best way possible. We can only hope.  ;-)

  105. 105.

    Another Scott

    Good remarks and good actions.

    I’m glad he explicitly said that this conflict probably won’t be over quickly. People need to be prepared…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  106. 106.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Matt McIrvin: Twitter is a tool.  It can be useful (and fun), but it needs to be used properly by the reader.  One has to maintain a critical eye and limit one’s sources.  Every tweet doesn’t have value, but some can be invaluable.

    Facebook can still be a place where you merely keep track of cousins and old classmates if you choose it to be.

  107. 107.

    brendancalling

    @Matt McIrvin: I got banned for saying something mean about Krysten Sinema, and decided not to contest it. Life is better now.

    I also took Facebook off my phone. Another big improvement.

  108. 108.

    trollhattan

    @Brachiator:

    Something very important I didn’t really appreciate until recently reading an analysis, is the great value of having a diplomat rather than a career spook as head of the CIA. Evidently William Burns is responsible to some extent for our crafty use of known intelligence to lay out Russia’s plans for all to see. The contrast before invasion when Ukraine and wider Europe waved it off as scare-mongering to today is stark, and Russia simply didn’t understand what we were up to, since it had always been “Spy versus Spy” tactics in the past.

    Suspect on reflection, the use of open intel will be judged a masterstroke.

  109. 109.

    Geminid

    Some good news out of Iran today. Two British-Iranian woman are reported to have been released from prison and preparing to fly home to Britain. One was serving a ten year sentence for (allegedly) working for Mossad, the Israeli spy agency. The second was arrested in 2016 and charged with plotting to overthrow Iran’s government.

    The Jerusalem Post article reporting this story observed that Iran and Britain are currently negotiating a settlement on some longstanding debtowed to Britain by Iran. That in turn might relate to the JCPOA intended to limit Iran’s nuclear program. There has been little news about the JCPOA negotiations in Vienna since they were “paused” ten days ago. The Iranian Foreign Minister did make a trip to Moscow earlier this week.

  110. 110.

    Matt McIrvin

    @schrodingers_cat: Gessen and Kendzior both immediately assumed that the US was transitioning permanently to something like a post-Soviet strongman regime when Trump got in. You could, of course, see what their models were.

  111. 111.

    MazeDancer

    Great speech.

    Kept thinking how Mr. Biden did not have to add “And our stuff works” over and over.

    Though not sure why John Deere is not taking this opportunity to announce they are sending a new line of “Tank Pullers” over to Ukraine?

    Someone at their ad agency is asleep at the wheel.

  112. 112.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    For some psychotic reason, I took 6 hours worth of 300-400 level Russian/Soviet History. The instruction level wasn’t bad,  but the prof really had a thing for married girls between 25 and 35 and the flirting was distracting.

    Couple of friends walked into it – they said they had fun with no regrets – he was a charming dude.

  113. 113.

    JoyceH

    Anyone else think that when Putin says we’re trying to ‘cancel’ Russia, that’s aimed directly at MAGAland, to get them on his side?

    Also – some clown on Twitter opined that it was very disrespectful of Zelenskyy to not wear a suit when addressing Congress. I can’t even…

  115. 115.

    trollhattan

    @Geminid: It is good, and surprising news since they had withheld her passport since she got out of prison.

    The debt was owed to Iran, downpayment for tanks they purchased from the UK back in the ’70s, pre-revolution I presume since they never delivered. Something like half a billion.

  120. 120.

    trnc

    @O. Felix Culpa: 100% agree. Why do people think the public should have all information on a freaking war?

    Have you considered the almost 100% likelihood that we aren’t getting all the information?

  121. 121.

    Kay

    @trollhattan:

    I think it’s really smart too, and not just for an international audience but for a domestic one. Americans were lied into an invasion of Iraq and a told a bunch of nonsense that were assisting in setting up a functional government in Afghanistan, for 20 years.

    Biden is building credibility. He’ll need it.

  122. 122.

    Brachiator

    @Frank Wilhoit:

    For centuries, the public discourse was maintained by very strict gatekeeping — based upon the cost of “publication” (in whatever form) and upon the exclusivity of closed communities.  This caused harm and resentment, but the harm was only perceived and the resentment only felt by small disempowered groups, so no one cared.

    Very astute observations. Gutenberg’s printing press was just as revolutionary in its time. Printing the Bible in English, for example, diluted the power and authority of the Church, but was initially furiously resisted and resulted in executions.

    And I recently ran across this example of how thoroughly the printing press disrupted previous tradition.

    The world of professional medieval scribes was shaken up by the coming of Gutenberg’s printing press around the middle of the 15th century. The ink pots dried up and the handwritten book slowly turned into an archaic object that was more costly than its printed counterpart. In the 16th century only large choir books (which did not fit on the press) and handsome presentation copies, custom-made for an affluent client, were still written by hand.

    But the Internet and social media ramped up disruption by many orders of magnitude.

    Now comes “social media”, and essentially overnight, not only has the gatekeeping been abandoned, but the mere idea that gatekeeping might be feasible and/or beneficial has utterly vanished from the collective memory.

    Yep. Social media is almost completely and chaotically “democratic,” although there are continuing attempts to create “communities” that become their own gatekeepers, as well as largely futile attempts to regulate content or providers.

    The use of algorithms to influence communication is another disruptive aspect of social media that has had profound impact on society.

  125. 125.

    JF

    @Alison Rose ???: go to Ukraine and volunteer to fight. I am sure they will award you Ukrainian citizenship for it. I am extremely pleased that though we offer a huge checkbook, that we do not put a single American life at risk for yet another foreign war

  126. 126.

    Eolirin

    @Bill Arnold: There is no way to do that math. There’s no way to know what actions cause a 1% increase in the chances of nuclear war.

    Not putting NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine, or establishing a no fly zone right now could be a 1% increase in the chance for nuclear war even.

    It’s quite possible that NATO’s refusal to get more involved will lead to a break down in nonprofileration and the increase in nukes and the number of countries that have them will result in a massive increase in the odds of a nuclear conflict occurring. It’s possible our sanctions on Russia will result in their use of their nuclear arsenal. It’s possible that failing to capture Ukraine will lead to Russians using nukes. It’s possible Putin getting pushed to the edge by domestic strife will lead to them using nukes.

    We can’t be constrained by risk existing, it has to be weighed against outcome. What happens if this continues to go poorly and attacks are launched on Poland or the Baltic states to try to cut off weapons or distract from the failures? What happens if Putin starts using chemical weapons? If he continues to blockade relief to Mariupol and 300,000 people starve to death? We just do nothing because there’s a slight risk of increased nuclear conflict? And then he’ll escalate further, because we continue to do nothing. How many Ukrainians need to die? A million, ten million, all of them? Where does it stop? Do we pull back when he starts doing the same thing to Poland or Lithuania and they invoke Article V of the NATO charter and just let NATO collapse? His ground forces are not up to the challenge of taking and holding territory but he doesn’t need those to kill huge numbers of civilians.

    By your equation if any dictator is willing to threaten the use of nuclear weapons we have to do absolutely everything they want because the alternative is billions dead. Allowing that dynamic to exist is completely untenable. It will lead to the thing we want to prevent. You can’t have asymmetry in risk taking with that math. Everyone that has nukes has to abide by it or it doesn’t work. And Putin isn’t abiding by it. He needs to be brought back in line on that front, by any means necessary, or things will get far more dangerous in the long term.

  129. 129.

    Geminid

    @trollhattan: Ah, I had assumed that Britain was the creditor. I expect the article said differently but I just skimmed it.

    Maybe the British are trying to get Iran to accept payment in 40 year old tanks. The Iranians probably wouldn’t bite on an offer of new tanks, though. Tanks could be going the way of the dinosaurs.

  130. 130.

    CaseyL

    Tom Nichols retweeted a video of a speech Putin gave recently, with subtitle translation.  Basically, Putin says Russia needs to be purged of a Fifth Column, which is apparently a lot of oligarchs who have property outside of Russia.  (And, of course, any dissidents.)

    As one reply commented, that is not the speech of someone who is winning.

    And, as others noted, it sounds very Stalinesque.

    Link to video and thread: Putin Speechhttps://twitter.com/just_whatever/status/1504144895501557762

  131. 131.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Geminid:

    Tanks could be going the way of the dinosaurs.

    Gen. David H. Berger, Commandant of the USMC, suggested as much in a WaPo interview today, only in slightly different words.

  132. 132.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @CaseyL: my hope is that talk of a fifth column that needs to be purged will put more ideas in the heads of more colonels. As Ben Rhodes said on TV yesterday, I’m hopeful, but not optimistic

  133. 133.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Eolirin: Here’s my problem. WaterGirl was talking a while back about how “this war feels different”. A real good vs. evil conflict, democracy vs. despotism.

    For me, Bush’s wars after 9/11 felt different, in that same way. And I was wrong then. Disastrously, deadly wrong.

    So I don’t trust myself.

    There’s a part of me that just feels like we’re being emotionally entrained in the same way, with impossibly higher stakes. And that, if we give ourselves over fully to this dynamic, we’ll be dead by April.

    There are fools on the “antiwar left” who jump from here to outright casting NATO as the villain and Putin as some kind of victim. Looks like Chris Hedges is there now. I guess I’m not too surprised. That’s ridiculous.

    But I am very wary of war having a momentum all its own, especially when it’s a war that could blow up into the Big One. I’m too much of a Cold War child, I guess.

  134. 134.

    CaseyL

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Unless they agree with him.

    There have been discussions of who holds real power in Russia.  The consensus seems to be that it isn’t the oligarchs, who exist on Putin’s sufferance, but the (can’t remember the exact word) mafiya/gangs.

    Not sure which branch the colonels are members of.

  135. 135.

    Rand Careaga

    @Steeplejack: I was also thinking of chiming in about The Icon and the Axe, but like you, I haven’t revisited the book since I read it in the seventies. I was impressed at the time, though. BTW, I have read that during his tenure as Librarian of Congress Billington was heartily loathed by most of the staff.

  136. 136.

    Gravenstone

    @Jeffro: Ya know, the power to declare war rests with the Congress. If they really want to kick that hornet’s nest, they have the ability to do so…

  137. 137.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Jeffro:

    Um did I read correctly that The Turtle said “President Biden needs to step up his game” with regard to helping Ukraine?

    Nobody’s stopping him from making specific suggestions.

  138. 138.

    JoyceH

    @CaseyL:

    There have been discussions of who holds real power in Russia. The consensus seems to be that it isn’t the oligarchs, who exist on Putin’s sufferance, but the (can’t remember the exact word) mafiya/gangs.

    What’s the difference? Not being snarky, I’d been under the impression that the Russian oligarchy and the Russian mafia was pretty much the same thing.

  142. 142.

    Geminid

    @O. Felix Culpa: I’m not surprised. You know, Dave and I were talking about this just last weekend. I’d called him with a question. But he said he had no idea why Ron Klain still hasn’t called me.

  143. 143.

    CaseyL

    @JoyceH: Me,too!  A lot of people thought so.

    But it seems to be that the oligarchs are those who’ve curried favor with Putin since forever, and therefore get to make their fortunes by skimming money from everything.

    And the mafiya (sloviki? I think is the word) are the ones who **Putin** has cultivated and curried favor with since his KGB days: giving them police power, essentially

    Both groups have gotten insanely rich off the public purse, but the “oligarchs” have no power of their own. The mafiya does.

  147. 147.

    Captain C

    @zhena gogolia: We used the Riasanovsky in my college Russian History classes; I definitely agree that it’s straightforward and readable.  I may even still have my (decades-old) copy somewhere.

  148. 148.

    Martin

    @Frank Wilhoit: There’s broader consequences to this. See California housing policy where any group of homeowners can shut down damn near any development project. See, there’s two ways to make money in real estate – build more houses, and don’t build more houses. And the way existing homeowners make money is by not building more houses. Even in the most liberal city in America, the appeal of massive amounts of property equity is enough to get Nancy Pelosi voters to shut down construction of affordable housing. All because we give those people a veto.

    We have professionals to do this for the collective good. We ignore them.

    We see this in the Covid mitigation. China can do covid zero because they have the cooperation of the public. China doesn’t have the notion of rugged individualist who knows better (somewhat to their detriment) but that’s a substantial portion of the US now. There’s almost no sense of the collective good, not in practice.

    As to proposals, my first observation is that the concept of ‘identity’ has always been tightly regulated by the government. It is not up to us to choose our SSNs, make up fictitious addresses and phone numbers. You need a certain order to this for the system to work. The internet destroyed that by making identity arbitrary. I’m Martin here, but that’s not my name. It’s actually taken from a song that references Martin Luther King, its a kind of homage to him. But I could have other identities here (I don’t), and nobody would know. It’s not hard. But it also means that accountability is impossible. It’s why police keep tabs on people’s aliases, so they can hold people accountable for acts committed under other names. The first step to reigning in this problem is to be able to hold people accountable for their efforts to veto, to know for sure if it’s a thousand people, or one person with a thousand sock puppets. See, we can’t even tell if it’s one veto or 1000 vetoes. We can’t tell if its a member of the community vetoing or someone across the world. And we can’t tell if they have an ulterior motive to that veto, a conflict of interest. You have to address these problems before you can even begin to address the rest, because democracies exist at the consent of its members, at a minimum you need to ensure that only the members are getting a say, and that everyone is getting an equal say and we are VERY far from that.

  149. 149.

    Captain C

    @CaseyL:

    a Fifth Column, which is apparently a lot of oligarchs who have property outside of Russia.  (And, of course, any dissidents.)

    Does this mean Putin will be offing himself first, as he’s the biggest thief of all in Russia?

  151. 151.

    Captain C

    @lowtechcyclist: I’m guessing lower taxes on the rich and no sanctions on any Russian projects in Kentucky, for starters.  Maybe bringing back Jim Crow on a Federal level.

    Someday we’ll find out whether it was just greed, bile, and ideology that rule the Moscow Turtle’s life, or if there’s actually some really nasty kompromat on him to go with.

  152. 152.

    Martin

    @O. Felix Culpa: Parallels to ‘fixed fortifications are a monument to the stupidity of man’, but rather than ‘fixed’, ‘ground based’.

    You’d expect a US general to agree with that (even if wrong) because the US strength is in the air, not on the ground. That’s part of why a no-fly zone is appealing – we’re really fucking good at it. In the same way that armored units are the backbone of the Russian military (lots of land borders to defend) aircraft is the backbone of the US military (effectively no land borders to defend).

    I think one reason why Adam is more bullish on a no-fly zone is that he knows just how strongly we would dominate that.

  154. 154.

    PJ

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

     

    @zhena gogolia: I’ve read Man Without a Face, and can confirm that both Putin and Gessen’s writing are boring.  (Her book on Pussy Riot was also boring.)  But it’s not very long, and it gives a good rundown of Putin’s crimes on his rise to power and his first ten or so years in office.  (I think the book is about ten years old now.)

  156. 156.

    Dopey-o

    @Frank Wilhoit: @Brachiator: What we miss when we look at a Gutenberg Bible is how crude and mechanistic it must have looked when it was new.

    Are you familiar with a relic of the early internet known as Usenet?

  157. 157.

    PJ

    @schrodingers_cat: Geffen spent her childhood in the Soviet Union, and views everything from that very pessimistic perspective.  She doesn’t believe in the resilience of democracy or the power of civil society to resist autocracy.  And, frankly, the period from 2016-2020 provides a lot of evidence in support of her perspective, but it also provides a lot of evidence against it.  That Biden is President, and we currently hold the House and Senate, however tenuously, is proof of that, though Republicans are still assiduously working to put an end to democracy and the rule of law.

    Personally, I think that her kind of reflexive pessimism is a detriment when you are fighting for the survival of a diverse democracy and a freer world.  Also, she is just a bad writer – I read two of her books, and she cannot write a beautiful or even interesting sentence.

  158. 158.

    PJ

    @Matt McIrvin: I recall there used to be these things called “blogs”, where people could publish long (or short) form essays about whatever they wanted, but I don’t know anyone who uses them anymore.

  159. 159.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @PJ: Personally, I think that her kind of reflexive pessimism is a detriment when you are fighting for the survival of a diverse democracy and a freer world.

    I just wanted to see that again.

  160. 160.

    StringOnAStick

    @PJ: 15 years ago I was in college classes with a Russian immigrant; pessimism was her middle name.  Also had a raging grievance level and was an amazing teller of lies that the rest of us were all able to refute at the end of our two years together once we compared experiences, especially the one about her dad being a wealthy dentist.  One of us met him at our graduation and asked him about his dental practice; he snapped “I’m not a dentist, what the hell are you talking about!” to one of the nicest and most sincere young woman in our class, then stomped away.  In retrospect I suspect this classmate’s dad was very definitely a very shady “biznessman” who lived in a world of lies and mirrors, which explained why his daughter was very similar.  The two writers you referenced are products of their childhoods, just as this old classmate was.

  161. 161.

    Bill Arnold

    @Eolirin:

    There is no way to do that math. There’s no way to know what actions cause a 1% increase in the chances of nuclear war.

    This is bullshit. Anyone in power who is doesn’t have (and listen to) at least one team of people attempting (estimates of) this gigadeath math is a psychopath.
    Take a deep look at yourself.
    Russia, or at least the current leadership, has broken itself. Ask yourself/research how/why this happened; it might be important.

    Gah. In this dry run, if we are lucky, for P==0.9X global heating, humans are looking pathetic. (A global thermonuclear war killing a billion or two humans, mostly through starvation, might kill fewer people than our current global heating track, by seriously reducing human GHG emissions for at least several decades. Win!)

  162. 162.

    Bill Arnold

    @Matt McIrvin:

    But I am very wary of war having a momentum all its own, especially when it’s a war that could blow up into the Big One. I’m too much of a Cold War child, I guess.

    No, you are sane, and ethical.

  165. 165.

    dr. luba

    I’m hearing reports of explosions in Belarus on Twitter and Telegram.

    Anyone else?

  166. 166.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @PJ:

    I’ve read Man Without a Face, and can confirm that both Putin and Gessen’s writing are boring.

    Ha! thanks.  Double-boring is a book I can pass on.

  167. 167.

    Brachiator

    @Frank Wilhoit:

    What we miss when we look at a Gutenberg Bible is how crude and mechanistic it must have looked when it was new.

    But people understood very quickly that you could more easily make many copies of a book than using scribes. And then people looked for ways to bring beauty to the production of printed books.

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