In contrast to the average time of > 8 years for successful vaccines to be developed, validated, and administered, the first Covid vaccine took 326 days. A new moonshot effort is to get that down to 100 days https://t.co/ptjcwjGzj2 @TheLancet @CEPIvaccines
@DrRHatchett pic.twitter.com/qT6S1ct93X— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) March 18, 2022
The #omicron wave hospitalized 5x more very young children as the #delta surge. More kids 4 & younger landed in the hospital during the US omicron wave, according to findings in Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report. Hit hardest: babies younger than 6 months https://t.co/j7lkTcTITq pic.twitter.com/O5Lg0Qv8JD
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) March 19, 2022
======
Some U.S. states are reducing daily reporting of coronavirus data, producing a false sense of assurance that Covid is in the rear mirror and that all is well https://t.co/FtjP6zEeej
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) March 20, 2022
Millions have no intention of ending pandemic behaviors even if the Covid threat fully subsides.
Roughly 13% of people in a new study say they won't change behaviors, such as avoiding elevators, mass transit & eating at restaurants. U of Chicago & Stanford research pic.twitter.com/cWnaPIShf8— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) March 19, 2022
Updated virus wastewater surveillance in limited 468 sites that monitor
10% have increases 1,000% or morehttps://t.co/bc8crKZDHu pic.twitter.com/bdkeyj8NcC— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) March 19, 2022
An all-American tragedy (*trigger warning: severe ableism*)
1. Yesterday I saw this Breitbart headline about a high school student killing himself due to "CRT [and] Coronavirus Isolation." I decided to do some fact-checking.
I was not prepared for how awful this story was going to be. Here comes a thread… ?https://t.co/hVpaLPY6Vh
— Sam Hoadley-Brill ? RIP CHARLES MILLS ? (@deonteleologist) March 15, 2022
2. The mother speaking is Cindy Walsh. She frames her son's suicide as caused (at least partly) by two school policies: CRT-based instruction and Covid-19 safety measures (mask mandates, potentially vaccine requirements). So I did some Googling… https://t.co/ANKs3KfwNI pic.twitter.com/wlk7B475gN
— Sam Hoadley-Brill ? RIP CHARLES MILLS ? (@deonteleologist) March 15, 2022
4. Then I found an article from Jan 2022, "Emotional and mental impact of COVID-19 weighs on students"-the issue Walsh says drove her son to suicide.
But she is quoted in the piece suggesting the cause wasn't CRT/Covid but lack of support after graduating https://t.co/DzPYvqmqZM pic.twitter.com/bx6qag8mLR
— Sam Hoadley-Brill ? RIP CHARLES MILLS ? (@deonteleologist) March 15, 2022
6. In conclusion: we have a batshit anti-vaxxer who believes that vaccines caused autism in her son, who tragically killed himself due to lack of therapeutic support, LYING OPPORTUNISTICALLY to blame a school board for his suicide while pushing her anti-vaxx agenda.
Disgusting.
— Sam Hoadley-Brill ? RIP CHARLES MILLS ? (@deonteleologist) March 15, 2022
I don’t think it’s entirely cynical, at least for Ms. Walsh. Her son was… different than she expected. This being America, where nothing ‘just happens’, she looked around frantically for something to blame. The anti-vaxxer community has been its own little niche for many years, but the pandemic gave its loudest members a whole new audience to applaud their ‘reasoning’.
Now the poor kid is dead, but Mommy is completely addicted to the warm bath of public attention — she’ll be pushing these lies as long as there are nitwits ‘just asking questions’ — and media/GOP enablers willing to give her a bullhorn. Virtual Munchhausen’s Syndrome by Proxy.
Maybe the worst part about this is that the damage is already done. The sorts of people replying to this tweet are not going to care that this woman is cynically lying for her own gain. They're already too deep in the anti-CRT quicksand. https://t.co/TKD0KUyhbI
— Sam Hoadley-Brill ? RIP CHARLES MILLS ? (@deonteleologist) March 15, 2022
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
52 new cases reported by NYSDOH yesterday. The usual weekend drop. I don’t have any symptoms of Omicron 2 yet since my unmasked hour in the MRI on Friday, fingers crossed that I managed to avoid it again this year.
NotMax
Be it mentioned Singapore the most recent country to report over one million total cases.
Several snippets of note from over the past few days.
Scrambling in Samoa.
Reining in a sliver of the madness.
The verdicts keep on coming.
Behind door #2,
Matt McIrvin
Cases have been creeping up from their bottom in Essex County, MA for the past several days (though at too low a level to alarm most people–we’re now at a 7-day average of 7.5/100k), while they continue to decline in most neighboring counties. New Hampshire is finally coming out of the first Omicron wave though for how long, I can’t say.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 22,341 new Covid-19 cases yesterday in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 3,974,019 cases. It also reported 85 deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 34,329 deaths – 0.86% of the cumulative reported total, 0.93% of resolved cases.
Malaysia’s nationwide Rt stands at 0.92.
160 confirmed cases are in ICU, 94 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 33,347 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 3,656,415 patients recovered – 92.0% of the cumulative reported total.
Six new clusters were reported yesterday, for a cumulative total of 6,911 clusters. 316 clusters are currently active; 6,595 clusters are now inactive.
21,817 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. 524 new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 34,970 doses of vaccine on 19th March: 16,078 first doses, 1,193 second doses, and 17,699 booster doses. The cumulative total is 68,455,223 doses administered: 27,14,222 first doses, 25,785,542 second doses, and 15,465,855 booster doses. 84.0% of the population have received their first dose, 79.0% their second dose, and 47.4% their booster dose.
New Deal democrat
Most US States did not report yesterday. The only items of note are that both NY and CA, which did report, are up week over week; and deaths declined slightly again to 879, which is lower than 16 of the last 24 months.
But today I want to focus on what is happening in Europe.
To cut to the chase, much as I respect him, the graph Dr. Eric Topol and others are using to posit a new wave in Europe at this point verges on misinformation.
There are 26 countries in the EU. Topol’s graph shows nine. I checked 19 of them (excluding tiny ones) plus the UK. Here’s what the graph doesn’t show:
1. There are a number of countries in the EU – Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Czechia, Spain – where no increase has happened at all, and in fact cases are decreasing.
2. There are 15 countries where cases bottomed and started increasing between February 24 and March 9, the majority of which were between March 1 and March 3.
3. Of those 15, 6 – Ireland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Cyprus, Finland, and Portugal – appear to have already peaked, generally about 2 to 2.5 weeks after the increase began. Their increases varied but generally were in the range of a 75% to 100% increase from a low level (I.e., don’t freak out over the percentages).
4. That leaves 9 of 20 European countries still increasing, less than 3 weeks after the new “waves” began. In several of those – the UK, Germany, Austria, Greece – the rate of increase appears to have slowed substantially. In the remaining 5, notably in France and Italy, the wave is continuing in full force.
The graph Topol is using omits all the EU countries where there has been no wave, and some where the wave has already subsided after just several weeks, focusing on those where the wave has been the worst.
It could be that the slowdown or reversal in the new “wave” I have seen in a number of countries over the past week will prove to be just noise, but as of now it appears to be signal.
The takeaway: don’t be so sure that this is “OMG Wave 5!!!”
YY_Sima Qian
On 3/19 Mainland China reported 1,656 new domestic confirmed (76 previously asymptomatic), 2,177 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Guangdong Province reported 51 new domestic confirmed & 27 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 24 new domestic asymptomatic cases (14 at Qinzhou, 4 at Fangchenggang, 1 at Beihai, & 5 at Chongzuo). 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 78 active domestic confirmed (43 at Fangchenggang, 11 at Baise, 19 at Qinzhou, 3 at Nanning, & 1 each at Chongzuo & Guilin) & 194 active domestic asymptomatic cases (56 at Fangchenggang, 14 at Baise, 60 at Chongzuo, 55 at Qinzhou, 5 at Liuzhou, 4 at Beihai) in the province. 1 zone at Fangchenggang are currently at Medium Risk.
Hunan Province reported 6 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) cases, 1 at Changsha (found via screening of residents under lock down), 2 at Shaoyang (both traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine), 1 at Huaihua (mild, an elementary school student found via mandatory screening), 1 at Yueyang (a traced close contact already under centralized quarantine), & 1 at Yongzhou (previously asymptomatic). There currently are 18 active domestic confirmed (5 each at Changsha, Shaoyang & Huaihua, 2 at Yueyang, & 1 each at Xiangtan & Yongzhou) cases in the province. 1 sub-district at Huaihua is currently at Medium Risk, as is a residential compound at Changsha.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 8 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed & 19 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Tianjin Municipality reported 21 new domestic confirmed (4 previously asymptomatic, 17 mild & 4 moderate) cases, all traced close contacts already under quarantine. There currently are 384 active domestic confirmed & 27 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 4 sites are currently at High Risk. 10 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shandong Province reported 51 new domestic confirmed (3 previously asymptomatic) & 380 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 27 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 61 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 1,160 active domestic confirmed cases & 2,075 active asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Shanxi Province 6 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed cases in the province (3 at Jinzhong, 5 each at Yuncheng & 1 at Jincheng).
Hebei Province reported 21 new domestic confirmed & 534 domestic asymptomatic cases. 13 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 81 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 304 active domestic confirmed & 1,742 active asymptomatic case in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Liaoning Province reported 39 new domestic confirmed (11 previously asymptomatic) & 132 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 328 active domestic confirmed & 385 active domestic cases in the province.
Heilongjiang Province reported 18 new domestic confirmed (14 previously asymptomatic) & 19 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 121 active domestic confirmed & 165 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jilin Province reported 1,191 new domestic confirmed (19 previously asymptomatic, 1,187 mild, 2 moderate & 2 serious) & 303 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 32 domestic positive cases recovered. As the province does not consistently break down recoveries by confirmed & asymptomatic cases or by jurisdictions, I can no longer track the count of active case counts in the different jurisdictions.
Beijing Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed (moderate) cases, a traced close contact already under centralized quarantine. 1 village is currently at Medium Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 17 new domestic confirmed (6 previously asymptomatic) & 492 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 241 of the new domestic positive cases are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine, & the rest from screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure. 10 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 44 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 175 active domestic confirmed & 2,099 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 12 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shaanxi Province reported 15 new domestic confirmed cases (14 mild & 1 moderate). 8 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 331 active domestic confirmed cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Hubei Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed (1 mild & 3 moderate, 3 at Wuhan & 1 at Shiyan) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic (1 each at Wuhan & Xianning) cases in the province..
Jiangsu Province reported 1 new domestic (1 previously asymptomatic) & 50 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 13 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 13 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 125 active domestic confirmed & 335 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Anhui Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic, all mild, 2 at Tongling & 1 at Ma’anshan) & 15 new domestic asymptomatic (4 at Ma’anshan & 11 at Tongling) cases, 12 of the new domestic positive cases are tracked close contacts already under centralized quarantine & 2 via screening of residents in areas under movement restrictions. There currently are 7 active confirmed (3 at Ma’anshan & 4 at Tongling) & 62 active domestic asymptomatic (30 at Ma’anshan, 4 at Suzhou, 25 at Tongling & 1 each at Anqing, Chuzhou & Haozhou) cases in the province. 2 villages at Ma’anshan, & 4 sites at Tongling, are currently at Medium Risk.
Zhejiang Province reported 19 new domestic confirmed (6 previously asymptomatic) & 18 new domestic asymptomatic cases. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Gansu Province reported 29 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) & 17 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 15 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 5 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 200 active domestic confirmed & 166 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Fujian Province reported 158 new domestic confirmed (4 previously asymptomatic) & 109 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 636 active domestic confirmed & 344 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Xining in Qinghai Province there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases in the city.
Zunyi in Guizhou Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
Jiangxi Province reported 6 new domestic confirmed (3 previously asymptomatic, 3 mild & 3 moderate, 5 at Nanchang & 1 at Ganzhou) & 28 new domestic asymptomatic cases (27 at Nanchang & 1 at Yichun). There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed (8 at Nanchang & 1 at Ganzhou) & 74 active domestic asymptomatic (71 at Nanchang, 2 at Yichun, & 1 at Jiujiang) cases in the city. 3 sites at Nanchang are currently at Medium Risk.
Henan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases, 1 each at Zhengzhou & Xinyang, both person recently arriving from Shanghai. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed (5 at Puyang, 2 at Zhengzhou, & 1 each at Jiaozuo, Luoyang, Shangqiu & Xinyang) & 5 active domestic asymptomatic (4 at Jiaozuo & at Puyang) cases in the province. 7 sites at Puyang & 1 village at Jiaozuo are currently Medium Risk.
Chongqing Municipality reported 3 new domestic confirmed (all mild) & 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 5 traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine & 2 via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently is 55 active domestic confirmed & 16 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 3 dormitory buildings are currently at Medium Risk.
Sichuan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases.
Yunnan Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed & 17 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 6 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 26 new domestic asymptomatic were released from isolation. There currently are 76 active domestic confirmed & 373 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 3/19, Mainland China reported 81 new imported confirmed cases (15 previously asymptomatic, 1 in Guangdong), 139 imported asymptomatic cases, 3 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 337 confirmed cases recovered (167 imported), 347 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (150 imported) & 91 were reclassified as confirmed cases (15 imported), & 11,396 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 19,986 active confirmed cases in the country (1,970 imported), 35 in serious condition (1 imported), 16,196 active asymptomatic cases (1,695 imported), 10 suspect cases (all imported). 317,145 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 3/19, 3,222.878M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 4.152M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 3/20, Hong Kong reported 14,149 new positive cases, all domestic (5,876 via RT-PCR & 8,273 from rapid antigen tests), 205 deaths (32 fully vaccinated, including 1 boosted) + 41 backlogged deaths.
On 3/20, Taiwan reported 121 new positive cases, 118 imported & 3 domestic.
Xentik
The poll showing that 13% won’t resume normal behavior in a post-COVID world is interesting. It’s a shame the study seems to be entirely focused on work-from-home, and doesn’t seem to look at how the behaviors they’re seeing break down by age.
I’ve been going back and forth with my SO, who is a healthcare provider, about whether the pandemic would result in the US population adopting masking for cold/flu and other respiratory ailments. I’ve been arguing for a while that the young will be more likely to mask up during flu/cold season or if they’re not feeling well in the future, though my SO remains skeptical. Given how low flu’s R0 is, an uptick in vaccination and the use of masking during flu season could effectively eliminate its effect on the population.
Of course, flu won’t be particularly troubling in a world that keeps having COVID outbreaks every 4-6 months because we keep backing off restrictions before things really die down sufficiently. I can’t say that either of us are terribly optimistic about ever seeing a post-pandemic world at this point.
Rusty
The Republican controlled house of New Hampshire look has passed a law that ivermectin can be dispensed without a prescription. I suspect the Republican controlled senate will follow and at least some chance Sununu, our Republican governor will do the same. Lined up are a host of anti-vaccine bills to prevent any consequences to refusing to get vaccinated (and not just COVID-19). The idiocy and attacks on public health are running rampant here.
Ken
@Rusty: Celebrating the state motto, “Live Free and Die”.
eclare
@Xentik: I don’t see me going anywhere indoors unmasked for the foreseeable future.
Zzyzx
@Xentik: I figure that this was going to die out at some point if we did nothing because that’s what we did in 1918 and even the Black Death finally ended. While we’re not being perfect by any means, the vaccination rate signifies to me that at some point, this will not be as big of a deal.
I mean we’re not having overwhelmed hospitals or anything like that right now and even Seattle no longer has a mask mandate. Maybe there will be another wave but that’s not a given.
Fair Economist
Flu Report for 3/7/22-3/13/22
Positivity up from 5.8% to 6.8%. Lab cases up from 2,446 to 2,685, with 1,415 added to previous weeks. H3N2 continues its unprecedented dominance, 98.9% of all types flus and 100% of subtyped Type A flus. Hospital admissions up from 1,772 to 2,082.
Mortality due to pneumonia, influenza and COVID down to 10.8% from last week’s 13.1%, down to “only” the level of a bad flu season. This is the first week at pre-COVID levels since last summer. This reflects falling deaths due to COVID as there are very few flu deaths at present. The CDC now classes the current flu situation as “increasing”, although these increases are not fast compared to a bad flu season ramping up.
Flu continues to worsen with repeal of anti-COVID health measures. Probably not enough time in the season for it to get really bad, but instructive.
Fiona
@New Deal democrat: Just as a FYI: Ireland has basically stopped testing. 70 – 80K tests a day (down from 150 – 200K / day at peak) and an a 28 – 33% positive rate.
tl,dr: The numbers are artificially low here in Ireland.
rikyrah
@Xentik:
I would like the breakdown by race
Rusty
@Ken: We us that one because “Fuck you, I got mine” doesn’t fit so nicely on a license plate.
New Deal democrat
@Fiona:
Thanks. When did Ireland cut down on testing? Depending on that, the recent trend(s) may still be accurate, even if the absolute numbers aren’t.
JAFD
Good morning !
Was reading Jeremy Faust’s at
https://insidemedicine.bulletin.com/when-will-one-way-masking-be-safe-enough-for-everyone/
in which he says
“keep SARS-CoV-2 under 50 cases per 100,000 people weekly, if one-way N95 masking in those public settings were to be safe enough”
So, am wondering, first, whether that figure means ‘all cases’ or ‘new cases’; second, if that’s good advice; and third, if there’s online source for “new cases per 100.000 people weekly” on a state or county level ?
Thanks very much for your help with this !
smith
@JAFD: Both CDC and CovidActNow will give you cases per 100K on the state and county level. CDC numbers are for 7 days, CovidActNow gives you the daily number, but to see what it is weekly, just multiply by 7.
JAFD
@smith: Thanks !
Soprano2
@New Deal democrat: I hate it when trusted public health authorities seem to misrepresent statistics to favor their preferred view (aaaaahhhh, it’s another wave already!)
Fiona
@New Deal democrat: Couple weeks ago.