(Mariupol Peace Bell)
There is only one real story from Ukraine to focus on tonight: the Russians have given the Ukrainian government an ultimatum. Surrender Mariupol and they’ll let the remaining 130,000 civilians, as well as Ukrainian forces that lay down their weapons leave. Everyone remaining will face Russian military justice
I have done a ton of reporting on "military tribunals" conducted by Russia and its separatist proxies in eastern Ukraine since the war began in 2014. Here's a disturbing look at what they are: https://t.co/c5OHIGxRT5
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 20, 2022
Russia has given Ukraine until 5am to surrender Mariupol, after which it says it'll let the 130,000 remaining civilians leave.
The language it uses for Kyiv's forces – "nationalists," "foreign mercenaries," "bandits" – leaves little doubt about what Russia has in store for them.
— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 20, 2022
As I type this it is currently 2:19 AM in Ukraine. By the time I hit publish it will likely be around 2:45 or 3:00 AM.
What the Russians are threatening to do is, essentially, reduce Mariupol. The Russian military has besieged the city and is fighting against Ukrainian forces inside the city that are trying to defend Mariupol. These forces are essentially fighting in close quarters to the civilian population. As such taking Mariupol by force will mean destroying as much of the city, its defenders, and the civilian population as necessary to achieve the objective.
The Ukrainian government has responded that they will not surrender Mariupol to the Russians!
Here’s the machine translation of the Ukrainian response:
Vereshchuk to the Russian Federation: No surrender of Mariupol can be discussed. Open the corridor for us
The Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories officially responded to Russia’s ultimatums on the surrender of Mariupol.
Source: Visepremier and head of the Ministry of Education and Industry Irina Vereshchuk in a comment to “Ukrainian Truth”
Details: The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has sent an official letter to Ukraine, where it puts forward an ultimatum for Ukrainian defenders to lay down their arms and leave Mariupol. Only after that do they offer “evacuation of civilians.”
Vereshchuk’s direct speech: “There are 8 pages with a return to history and other nonsense. They sent the same letter to the UN, the International Committee of the Red Cross and hoped that international structures would react and begin to put pressure on Ukraine. It didn’t happen. The ICRC and the UN understand that this is Russia’s manipulation and that it is hostage-taking.
Details: Ukraine demands that the Russian military immediately open a corridor for civilians in order to be able to take them out of Mariupol to Zaporozhye. Direct speech: “No surrenders, addition of weapons are out of the question. We have already informed the Russian side about it. I wrote: “You just open the corridor instead of wasting time on 8 pages of letters.”
We informed the UN and the ICRC. Now we are waiting for the reaction of the international community. This is conscious manipulation and real hostage-taking of people.”
Follow us on Telegram. Subscribe to our channel “UP. Streechka”
Details: Vereshchuk is also outraged that Russia began to kidnap and take our people out of Mariupol to the Russian Federation.
Direct speech: “Moreover, we have the facts that they kidnap children from orphanages and do not allow us to pick them up.
To understand: they are going to forcibly take 350 children away in the direction of Russia, preventing us from taking them away.
We ask clearly: give us a corridor and write which boarding school we are going to and why. They immediately take the children to Russia. It’s terrorism.”What happened earlier: the Russian Ministry of Defense issued an ultimatum to the Ukrainian authorities that by 5 a.m. on March 21, Mayor Vadim Boychenko surrendered the city, and then the Russian occupiers would allegedly open humanitarian corridors for the population and the disarmed Ukrainian military.
Part of the reason that the Russians are so hell bent on taking Mariupol is that the Ukrainian forces defending it are the Azov Battalion. When the EuroMaidan revolt against Yanukovych began in 2014 one of the groups involved where a bunch of Ukrainian neo-fascists and neo-NAZIs who had their origins as a group in Soviet football hooliganism and ultimately evolved into a local self defense militia for lack of a better term. After Putin scarfed up the Donbas and Crimea these guys reorganized themselves into a battalion within Ukraine’s National Guard. While there have been attempts over the past several years to clean the neo-NAZIs and ultra-nationalists out of the battalion, with a 2015 estimate that only 10-20% of the members were neo-NAZIs, in order for them to receive training from the US, no one is sure how successful these efforts are. Regardless, the Azov Battalion is Putin’s prime evidence that Ukraine is full of NAZIs. And because they’ve been effective in fighting against his occupation of the Donbas, he wants them wiped out. Right now he has them, as well as over 300,000 civilians – not the 130,000 in the Russian ultimatum – trapped inside Mariupol. And he’s going to do whatever he can and whatever he thinks he can get away with to kill every last one of them.
All we can do now is wait and see if Putin is going to commit an industrial scale war crime while the entire world watches.
Earlier today, a few hours before Putin told Ukraine it was planning to commit an industrial scale war crime unless Ukraine gave him what he wants, the Russians managed to launder some more disinformation and agitprop regarding “peace” negotiations through the Turks who are hosting the talks.
Meanwhile Turkey, which is mediating alongside Israel between Russia and Ukraine, claimed the two countries were converging on key aspects. Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said “the parties are close to agreement on fundamental issues”. “It’s not that easy to negotiate while the war is ongoing, or to agree when civilians are dying. But I want to say that there is momentum,” he said. Kyiv and its western allies fear Russian president Vladimir Putin could be buying time in peace talks to replenish Moscow’s forces and launch a broader offensive.
Turkey’s pro-government Hurriyet newspaper reported that the two countries were edging towards agreement on Kyiv declaring neutrality and abandoning its drive for Nato membership, “demilitarising” Ukraine in exchange for collective security guarantees, what Russia calls “denazification” and lifting restrictions on the use of Russian in Ukraine. Two people familiar with the discussions said it was likely a compromise would involve token concessions from Kyiv on what Russia calls “denazification”.
This, like the same statements made last week, are bullshit.
The Ukrainian officials added: The sides are actually still far away from reaching a deal, and Ukraine position remains unchanged.
— Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) March 19, 2022
If the Ukrainians agreed to what the Russians have told the Turks they want, then Putin despite not actually winning on the battlefield right now, would actually wind up winning the war. If Ukraine emerges from this war formally having abandoned its constitutional directive to seek NATO membership, as well as formally neutral and demilitarized, all it does is set the stage for Putin to rebuild his military and start all over again with a new made up pretext for having to liberate Ukraine from the Ukrainians.
Here are some tweets with videos of Ukrainians in occupied cities resisting and protesting the Russian military occupiers.
Energodar:
I have no words. People in Southern Ukrainian cities and towns are unbelievably strong. With bare hands they are ready to oppose the occupants with weapons. This video is from #Energodar. Just watch it. #StandWithUkriane pic.twitter.com/dggyqtcENX
— Olya Vorozhbyt (@vorozhbyt) March 20, 2022
Kherson:
Residents of occupied Kherson block the path of a Russian military convoy and force it to turn away. Incredible. pic.twitter.com/jvT1jRXnO6
— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) March 20, 2022
Khakovka:
a pro-Ukrainian demonstration in Russian-occupied Kakhovka, Kherson oblast pic.twitter.com/oOisLwsevW
— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) March 20, 2022
And we’ll end with this while we wait for more news from and about Mariupol!
A Ukrainian policeman and his dog, after being separated by war, get reunited.#StandWithUkraine #HumanityFirst #UkraineUnderAttack #RussiaInvadedUkraine #PutinIsaWarCriminal #StopPutin #RussianUkrainianWar #RussiaGoHome pic.twitter.com/7YL8rZNiBc
— olexander scherba?? (@olex_scherba) March 20, 2022
Open thread!
Medium Cool with BGinCHI – Mexico!
HinTN
Chocolate labs are the best
ETA: That Ukrainian crowd turning array the big Z was pretty damn good and these posts aren’t far behind, Adam L Silverman. Thank you.
cbear
Thank you for your tremendous reporting and analysis!
Suzanne
This is terrifying. Turning against a civilian population?! How can they even think of doing this?!
Anonymous At Work
What would the EU/NATO/US’s reaction to destruction of Mariupol be? Is this the causus bellus for intervention or another note? I can imagine China yawning while continuing to take notes, and maybe Israel deciding that Russian/Israeli dual citizens in service to Putin are the new Jewish Ghetto Police, but that’s it and that wouldn’t be enough to change the situation in Ukraine.
So, Russian kills 300k+ civilians. What happens next?
Gin & Tonic
There are no restrictions on the use of Russian in Ukraine. Anybody who knows the languages and watches any of the viral videos, whether it’s farmers towing away tanks or APCs, people in Kherson facing off with the occupiers, all the way back to sunflower-seed grandma – *everybody* in them is speaking Russian. Everybody. You want to speak Russian, you speak Russian. This is bullshit of the first order. Russian-speaking Ukrainians are Ukrainians, and will fight to the death for Ukraine.
Gin & Tonic
@Suzanne: They have been killing civilians since the beginning.
Martin
This is the point in the movie when the oppressed masses realize they have strength in numbers and push back. Not that it usually works that way in real life, mind you.
I’m seeing more evidence that Ukrainians believe they got this. Also seeing more evidence that should Ukraine have this, there’s gonna be some wild war crimes against Russians. I really hope NATO and EU get involved before that road is gone down. That doesn’t benefit anyone.
Adam, any thoughts on the statement that the US would provide support for any other NATO member that chose to enter the conflict? That seems like a considerable escalation.
HumboldtBlue
This photo of a woman fleeing Ukraine with her pets will become one of the many lasting images of this horrible conflict.
That may seem a bit trite at first read but the Russians in particular have become a feared and vicious cohort of hooligans bent on nothing but violence and mayhem and far-right movements across the globe use football ultras to push their far-right ideologies whether it’s Italy, England, Hungary (almost as vicious as Russia) or Ukraine.
Ksmiami
Blow up a Few Russian ships. Lay waste to Putin’s mansions. Mob bosses only understand violence. He’ll only stop when we stop him.
Gin & Tonic
@Martin: That statement seems to have been backed out.
As to reprisals against Russians and their collaborators? As ye sow, so shall ye reap.
David Koch
“Nuts” – Anthony McAuliffe
Suzanne
@Gin & Tonic: I understand, but this sounds different.
Martin
@Gin & Tonic: Ah, I missed that. I wonder what’s the story there.
I get the sentiment of reaping what one sows, but the US hasn’t exactly fared well being involved in sectarian conflicts. Plus the EU is going to put the brakes on hard for membership if they start to go down that route.
HumboldtBlue
@Gin & Tonic:
Rather disturbing video of a couple who had been looting Ukrainian homes tied to a tree with their pants pulled down being whipped on the bare breech with tree branches by the local ladies. Extremely hard to watch, no matter how justly earned, and it’s just one of several. What Putin has unleashed will take decades to even begin to heal.
Gin & Tonic
@HumboldtBlue: Generations. Not decades.
Martin
@Suzanne: It’s different in degree. Russia started trying to not look like an agent of genocide and is quickly ramping up to becoming one. Maybe Adam has some insight on this, but it seems to me that the direction Russia is going here would make it impossible for Ukraine to reach a ceasefire agreement.
Paul T
I guess we keep forgetting. Please review these photos of Aleppo, before, and Aleppo, after. Until the “West” or “NATO” or who ever else we are calling ourselves, gets actively involved, Russia will bomb and kill as much as they want. We stood by and watched before, and they note we are just standing by and watching today. We are already in WW3, we are just in denial. All of Ukraine will be bombed to rubble unless WE stop it.
https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/aleppo-before-and-after-syria-civil-war/
HumboldtBlue
@Gin & Tonic:
Sadly, you’re correct.
Lyrebird
In the video with the priests and the imam from Odessa, there was a fellow without an identification, saying he had moved there recently and felt totally welcome. Was he in that video to make this same point? I was wondering if he was their representative not-religious post-Soviet Jewish person.
wmd
This is emotionally exhausting.
My girlfriend from June 2019 until the end of 2021 is a refugee from Mariupol – she applied for refugee status for herself and her son in 2014 when they couldn’t return because the airport had been destroyed by shelling. She lives with her naturalized mother in one of her cousin’s houses. She has PTSD and it’s a lot worse for obvious reasons.
While we broke up months ago I have been trying to offer support since the initial invasion. Some of the tweets shared here definitely have helped, although I suspect the bay area Ukrainian community is doing a good job too. The Ukrainian psyops is really good. One of my college friends is Ukrainian American – nice meme of a Cossack with the words “Putin’s fatal mistake was sending slaves to liberate free people”. The tweets today fit that perfectly.
I’m not asking you all for help to recharge. I had a long conversation with a Palestinian friend – she called me about problems with work and we talked about war trauma after talking about management issues. I think hearing from someone that has had similar experiences – bombs and artillery in civilian neighborhoods being reported by relatives, and visiting and seeing the destruction and continued hope really helped me.
Martin
@Gin & Tonic: Yep. The warning from one mayor that the Chechen soldiers would be buried tied up in a pigs hide. Gonna be a real dark night.
West of the Rockies
Clarence Thomas said to be hospitalized. Extra crunchy tots and pears.
Ishiyama
Zelenskyy is fighting in his shirtsleeves. He knows what is required in war. That is unity. He has shut down the collaborationist parties and taken over the media. Let’s recall that Lincoln had to suspend habeas corpus.
On a military note, the position of mercenaries in modern war is, to say the least, equivocal. Forces that are not State-regulated, & not wearing the uniform of a recognized combatant State, constitute (IMHO) “hostis humani generis” and should not claim protection under the laws of war. I am expecting Zelenskyy to announce that mercenaries captured in combat will be subject to summary execution. Such a policy would be the best deterrent to the employment of mercenaries.
debbie
@Suzanne:
It’s all Putin has been thinking about. Seventy minutes to go and nothing but silence from the free world!
Gin & Tonic
@Lyrebird: From appearance and context, he was Jewish. He was speaking Russian. In that video, the languages alternated – Russian, Ukrainian, Russian, Ukrainian, Russian. Ukraine is comfortably multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-lingual.
Martin
@West of the Rockies: We need him to hold on long enough for Jackson to get confirmed.
HumboldtBlue
This is a general question for anyone who has some knowledge: I’ve seen repeated posts on Twitter urging people top NOT share pics and videos of captured Russian soldiers, as it violates the Geneva Convention.
I just watched a short video of what appears to be a Russian POW tearfully apologizing and begging forgiveness from Ukraine, but am torn whether it should be reposted and shared.
Any thoughts?
The Pale Scot
Reading this shit, I think I may go buy the Tolkien histories. Morgoth, Arda Marred, Under the Shadow. This shit is so fucked up
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks G&T!
Still praying for your family, though not claiming that will do much, and supporting fundraisers as I can.
Gin & Tonic
@HumboldtBlue: No matter the subject, there are a lot of Twitter experts.
I believe the Geneva admonition is not to abuse POW’s. If the video is of a POW confessing, I do not view that as abuse. But I am not a Twitter expert on the laws of war.
HinTN
@Martin: Yes, or the GQP would, I’m not sure what but freak out is far too mild a description.
Cameron
I never thought I would think this way, but I would not object if the US and NATO released a joint statement that any attempt to attack the city prior to full civilian evacuation will be neutralized. Don’t make the statement any more specific than that, but do what is necessary if it’s ignored.
The Pale Scot
“Putin’s fatal mistake was sending slaves to liberate free people”.
Keeper
bbleh
Sigh. He’ll do it. He’ll make Mariupol an object lesson pour encourager les autres. And he’ll bring enough force to bear — which unfortunately he has in the area — to turn resistance at any scale, even a general uprising, into a bloodbath. And we’ll never hear the end of the Azov Battalion, not from Putin and not from his US lackeys on Fox and elsewhere.
I honestly don’t know what could stop it, short of Ukrainian surrender to the taking of hundreds of thousands of hostages, or something like direct retaliation against Russian forces from NATO, neither of which is gonna happen. Mmmmaybe if everybody else in the world (ok, Belarus excepted) insisted that the Russians allow free evacuation of civilians? I wonder what China’s official position on the matter is, since this message allegedly went to the UN and hence could be taken up by the Security Council. I also wonder how the siloviki are feeling about how all this is going, and where it’s taking Russia.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
“The razing of Mariupol, forced deportation of residents and kids and military justice directed at any surviving inhabitants, which I do not support, is still not as bad as cancelling stories about Hunter Biden’s laptop.”
– by Glenn Greenwald literally (since it is all he seems able to talk about)
Ohio Mom
@HinTN: I stepped away to google — the hospital expects to discharge Thomas tomorrow or the day after. He is being treated for “flu-like symptoms.”
Martin
@HumboldtBlue: The Ukrainian govt can’t publish photos. We can. So that’s not an issue.
Gin & Tonic
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Do you think we could use Max Blumenthal’s intestines to strangle Greenwald?
The Pale Scot
I just watched a short video of what appears to be a Russian POW tearfully apologizing and begging forgiveness from Ukraine, but am torn whether it should be reposted and shared.
Any thoughts?
War has not been declared, anyway RU did’t sign the Geneva Convention. en toto, only for war victims, not combatants
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: What Ukraine wants from negotiations now is three things:
That’s it. They’re not interesting in negotiating a comprehensive peace agreement right now as the war isn’t over.
HumboldtBlue
@Gin & Tonic:
Well, it’s just not Twitter and I have my own issues with the stance that men who have participated in an undeclared invasion of a sovereign nation without the least justification deserve Geneva protections in the first place.
bbleh
@Ohio Mom: Yeah with IV antibiotics, and who knows what else. You don’t admit, or give IV antibiotics, for the sniffles.
debbie
The Pale Scot
Adam, what’s the chance that after it warms up in Europe the Ukrainians blow the pipeline. Ooops!!
Seems like a no brainer
debbie
@HumboldtBlue:
People believe that showing dead bodies violates the Geneva Convention. As if Putin has paid any attention to that, ever.
This is like trying to make rules at a knife fight.
debbie
@bbleh:
You do for pneumonia.
MisterForkbeard
@West of the Rockies: @Martin: He’ll be fine. News reports are that he was hospitalized for flu-like symptoms, and they’ve identified it and are treating it with anti-biotics via IV.
He would richly deserve dying now, but like Trump he’s going to continue fucking us over and living the high life for some time.
Jay
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/russian-mercenaries-in-ukraine-linked-to-far-right-extremists
Were Pootie Poot serious about taking on Nazi’s, he would start at home with amongst other’s, the Wagner Group.
Azov started out with a “bad rep” during Maiden, it got worse afterwards, and in the early days of the ATO.
By the time of Debaltseve and Illosovic, they were one of the most effective UNG groups, not because of weapons or training, but combat experience and morale. Keep in mind, most of the UA at the time were conscripts where Azov and some of the other UNG groups were all volunteers.
As the conflict continued post Minsk II, and the UA moved from a conscript military, to a professional NATO type military, Azov became more professional, better armed and equipped, and continually getting combat experience on the Mariupol front.
Azov is now also raiding in the Russian rear,
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DUOKHOv9Tjg
Lacuna Synecdoche
West of the Rockies:
MSN:
I’m not saying I hope Thomas has Covid, or hope he dies – I’m just saying that if he doesn’t have Covid, I hope he’s visited in the hospital by unmasked Covid carriers.
bbleh
@debbie: yes, bacterial anyway (or why not cuz it might be). And for many other things that can cause “flu-like symptoms.”
Remember how wildly dishonest reports were about Trump’s COVID. I would expect no better in this case.
kindness
Putin is daring the West to step in. If Putin is only fighting Ukraine, Putin loses. But if Putin can be seen as fighting the West, he thinks it’ll save his bacon. Except we’ve all seen how Russian troops fight now. I hope the West doesn’t get pulled in but I suspect it would be over real fast if they did come in.
Gin & Tonic
@Jay: Ilovaisk.
Adam L Silverman
@The Pale Scot: I don’t know.
Jay
https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.32_GC-III-EN.pdf
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
thanks.
Lacuna Synecdoche
@HumboldtBlue:
One could argue that the invasion itself is a violation of the Geneva conventions, and that those who violate the conventions give up the protection of the conventions too.
Lyrebird
I consider that dark, yes, and wrong, and I spoke out when under W Bush there was encouragement of Crusader mentality in our armed forces.
I’m just gonna say here that to me, starving thousands of civilians to death as a war tactic is on a whole different level of war crime. Anyone who survives is indeed going to have a few generations worth of trauma to deal with.
Kay
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
Hunter’s laptop and Ashley’s diary –
And still Trump lost.
The Pale Scot
@debbie:
That’s important, but the Russian mob in America needs to be broken. Use homeland security, round them up and ship them back. It’s not the fuck up we did El Salvador, where the US shipped teen gang members back and they then raised their own gang. Russia’s already run by gangs. They are an eternal conduit of bad news
Roger Moore
@Gin & Tonic:
IIRC, one of the things that’s explicitly forbidden is making them subjects of “public curiosity”. That is intended to prevent exactly what is going on with those videos: POWs making public statements denouncing what their side of the war is doing. Like any statement made by a prisoner, it’s impossible to tell if it’s truly voluntary or made under duress.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Gin & Tonic:
A thousand bucks will buy anybody a ticket to Rio. I’m pretty sure Bolsonaro wouldn’t care if somebody did street justice to him.
Villago Delenda Est
I hope the people preparing the charge sheet for Putin’s war crimes tribunal have at least a 1 TB drive to hold all the supporting documentation.
The Pale Scot
@Adam L Silverman:
So good idea? Cut off half of Russia’s hard currency earnings. And the Germans get screwed in retribution for being a primary reason this is happening now.
Ksmiami
@The Pale Scot: not before we take all their US assets and use them to rebuild Ukraine…
Lacuna Synecdoche
@Kay:
Trump acts like a guy who lost despite cheating, and is outraged because he knows that means the other side must have cheated too.
Villago Delenda Est
@Lacuna Synecdoche: It’s always projection with slime like TFG. Always.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
stuck out like a sore thumb. The post Maiden Rada introduced “anti-Russian”, legislation, ( a tiny part of what “sparked” the counter revolts), but they pulled it all with in weeks.
8 year old “resentment”, “grievance”, etc reported as fact.
not different than the CRT “panic” in the US.
Adam L Silverman
@The Pale Scot: The issue is going to be how much environmental damage to Ukraine would be created by doing this.
Bill Arnold
@Lacuna Synecdoche:
Yep. An actual 50 state “forensic audit” like some Rs are calling for might find major Republican vote rigging in red areas of some battleground states for statewide elections. Betcha there would be several fires/floods/accidents destroying stored ballots in Red districts (at least in those that haven’t already destroyed the ballots/evidence.)
It would all be coincidence, of course.
(The narrative at play here is simple: if most individual voting fraud is perpetrated by Republicans, then most large scale vote rigging is also perpetrated by Republicans.) It’s Just Logic! :-)
James E Powell
@Gin & Tonic:
This is Europe. Centuries. At least.
HumboldtBlue
@Martin:
After some searching that appears to be the case, there is no prohibition for us to do so but prohibits governments from doing so.
Jay
@The Pale Scot:
Ukraine get’s “transfer fee’s” for the oil and gas that passes through Ukraine.
Careful sabotage, hits Ukraine’s economy short term.
Uncareful sabotage hits Ukraine’s economy long term.
Emma from Miami
I am so depressed about this. Putin WILL kill all the people in that city. We WILL let him because OHTHENUKES. He WILL get away with it. Period.
phdesmond
@James E Powell:
someone i used to know was in the then Yugoslavia, one summer in the 70s, waiting in a train station. her train hadn’t been announced. after a while she went to the ticket window to ask why in her tourist Serbian. the clerk answered, “the train is late because we were under the Turks for 500 years.”
Villago Delenda Est
@James E Powell: The Serbs have been nursing a grudge about Kosovo since they lost the first battle there in 1389.
Kent
Centuries. The Serbs are still butthurt about the Battle of the Field of Blackbirds against the Ottoman Turks in 1389.
Edit: I see Villago beat me to it.
The Pale Scot
@Adam L Silverman:
&Jay
good points
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
pipe lines, ( the pipes) are cheap, pumping stations, required along the route are not. Close inlet valve, close outlet valve, blow the pumps(thermite), control panels, (RDX), transformers and power lines. 50-100 gallons of oil on the ground, or NG in the air per station tops.
If they are modern, and well maintained, blowing the pumps, will cause the flow valves to automatically close.
Kent
Are YOU a signatory to the Geneva Convention? Are you a uniformed combatant representing a signatory to the Geneva Convention?
If not, it doesn’t apply to what you choose to do with your internet account.
PJ
@James E Powell: Way to be a downer. There’s always hope – sure, it took a couple of continent-devastating wars, but the French and Germans have pretty much patched things up after several hundred years of invading each other.
Kent
There are a LOT of mercenaries on both sides. Unless all those Euros and North Americans streaming into Ukraine right now are actually enlisting in the armed forces of Ukraine. Which maybe they are, I don’t know.
Jay
@Emma from Miami:
Pootie-poot and the RA have continually threatened to “escalate”.
We are now in Day 24 of Russia’s 2 day war because,
– their air assaults, decapitation strikes and “Thunder Run” failed. Ukrainian Territory Defence groups gutted the airborne attacks, the decapitation strikes were betrayed, and the “Thunder Run” failed because basic vehicle maintenance is a skill beyond the RA.
Slava Ukrania and don’t give up hope.
Jay
@Kent:
Volunteers are not mercs.
Merc’s fight for profit,
the difference is not so much about paid or not paid.
The UADF volunteers do sign up with the UA.
Wagner Merc’s sign up to fight for Wagner.
Hangö Kex
I’m a lurker surfacing to thank Adam (as well as the commenters here) for the valuable insights. The time difference (US / Finland) makes it unlikely I’d be posting much: it seems these threads have gotten stale by the time I get to them; I happened to be awake at this unusual hour (to me) and thought I’d take advantage.
Ohio Mom
@Emma from Miami:
That’s pretty much where I am. I remember the first week nostalgically — the Russians were fumbling, unbelievably inept, the Ukrainians were full of vinegar and humor, there were those amusing videos of farmers on their tractors towing tanks to their barns and grandmothers stuffing bottles to make Molotov cocktails.
Now I am watching in horror, knowing they everyone in Mariupol is about to be slaughtered. And after that…? More of the same?
Kalakal
I would expect in the very near future that some very, very sophisticated western weaponry will be being used by volunteers in the UA. Volunteers who will be surprisingly expert in using said weaponry.
Kent
Mercs might be the wrong term. But there seems to be a lot of “volunteers” streaming into Ukraine from the west. A lot of them with founding from outside Ukraine. It seems to me that any decision to “summarily execute” Russian mercenaries would be likely met by Russian summary execution of any non-Ukrainians that they encounter on the battlefield.
Just saying that no good would likely come from Ukrainian summary executions. It would only be a death spiral until the battlefield in Ukraine starts to look like it did in 1943 with no quarter given by either side and firing squads and death squads used by both sides.
Adam L Silverman
@Hangö Kex: You’re quite welcome. And welcome to commenting!
Kent
The Russians got away with using their “little green men” for a decade. What comes around goes around I guess.
gene108
@bbleh:
Sometimes antibiotics are given as a prophylactic. In my hospitalizations having IV was required, regardless of what I was admitted for.
Kattails
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: “A fanatic is some one who can’t change their mind and won’t change the subject.”- Churchill.
debbie
It’s almost 11:50 pm and I haven’t heard anything reported on the BBC about Putin’s threat. I’ll take that as a very good sign.
Jay
@Kent:
Slava texted me today. He’s a coworker, Canadian, and Ukrainian. Dual citizenship. Former Soviet Army tank driver conscript. When we learned he was going, we, ( work) sent him out with technical manuals and zip drives in 9 languages.
He’s now a tank commander in a CAT in ( redacted) about a week away from deployment, for a counter attack towards (redacted). Ukrainian-Canadian Brigade, an official unit of the UA.
Carlo Graziani
I hate to say this, but it seems likely that it’s going to get worse, and uglier, before it gets better. And the people who will be paying the price are Ukrainians, largely civilians. And we will be largely sitting on the sidelines, anxiously, raging, but limited in what we can do directly.
It remains true that the Ukrainians are heroes, and tough, and show no sign of tiring of this fight despite the Russian’s appetite for brutality and terror. They are giving the Russian army a pitiless mauling, and there is no doubt that if the Russians were to occupy any part of Ukranian territory now, theit occupation would receive a worse treatment than the Yugoslavian partisans gave the Wermacht in the Second World War.
We are going to have to remember where the guard rails are. There are thresholds we can’t pass, as enraging as that fact may be, because a NATO-Russia war can still burn down the world. But there is a lot that we can do that is useful below that threshold, such as massive weapons supply, intelligence support, and training. And keeping up, and increasing, sanctions pressure.
None of this can alter current tactical situations, or — to put it less clinically — prevent the homicidal war-criminal toll of the Putinist offensive from climbing, for now. The truth is, nothing can. I hate writing this, but I believe that it is the truth. I wrote, a few weeks ago, that we’re in a slugging match, and that the main thing is to stay in it until the other guy falls down. That seems a bit glib to me now, because the people paying the price of staying in it are all Ukrainian. I am incredibly grateful for their willingness to fight on, and want to find every way to help them fight. But it’s going to be a long fight.
Their fight is our fight. I really believe that. I don’t wan’t this thing to end with Putin still hanging on to power. That son-of-a-bitch has been actively undermining our democratic institutions and dividing us from our allies for a decade. We need to take this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to fuck him. Not find a compromise that lets up on the sanctions while letting Russia keep their Black Sea corridor because Great Powers Must Have their Interests Acknowledged. Fuck that realist noise. This is the real payback for January 6. Maximum pressure, until a can of cabbage costs $25 in Moscow. I want to see those Chekist assholes deal with food riots, and beg the Army to save them.
The framework cannot be a compromise with Putin. It has to be a compromise with Russia, to move beyond Putinism. At this point, we should be prepared for a new Cold War, rather than tolerate that parasite sending us more Trumps.
Omnes Omnibus
Suggesting that any combatants discard the Geneva Conventions is a bad idea. Full stop. Fin. Not up for debate.
CaseyL
@Carlo Graziani: Yes to everything you said. Yes to the nth degree. I very much believe that the West – while sincere in its/our support for Ukraine – absolutely jumped at the chance to sanction the almighty hell out of Russia precisely because of Russia’s funding and support for the corrupt authoritarians, troll farms, cyberattacks, and all the other shit it’s pulled over the past 10 years against the West.
I just wish we could do the same with our homegrown oligarchs… and live in hope that we will.
Jay
@Kent:
it’s a unique area. The International Volunteers join the UA or UTDF, swear an oath, paperwork.
Wagner and the Chechen Chechens are not in any technical sense, or legal sense, members of the RU military.
After their disastrous first attempt as “shock troops” got them and their General slaughtered, the Chechen Chechen’s are now employed as NKVD troops, shooting Russian deserters, malingerers, and those who retreat or engage in self sabotage, ( from drained fuel to bone spurs).
Technically and legally, even under Russian law, the Wagner merc’s have no legal protection. Not bad for “Putin’s Chef”, an army starving in the field, because he stole the money for MRE’s for the military.
Kalakal
@CaseyL:
And it’s very revealing to see who didn’t, espescially in the US & UK
The Pale Scot
@Hangö Kex:
WELCOME TO THE PARTY PAL!
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
the Geneva Conventions protect “lawful” combatants in uniform , engaged in “lawful” warfare, ( loopholes you can drive a truck through, eg,. Bush, etc).
The RU has just threatened and is engaged in a genocide against not only Uniformed Lawful Combatants engaged in the defence of Mariupol, but also the entire civilian, non-combatant population, including children.
Technically, and legally, the RU just stripped all Geneva Convention protections from every RU combatant.
Wapiti
@Roger Moore: This, and thanks for that answer. I think in an earlier time, counties might parade their prisoners in front of civilians, for example, as a sign of success. The videos are the modern equivalent.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jay: I stand by what I said. If one is going to err, err on the side of not violating the Conventions. Sort the rest out after the war.
Kalakal
The International Red Cross amongst others urges people not to make and share such videos in order to prevent retaliation against the soldiers relatives, and against the soldiers themselves after the war
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
yes, and no.
it would be nice to sort it all out in the Courts after the war,
but let’s say you get the upper hand on a bunch of Wagner mercs, that just executed an entire kindergarten class, knowing that under International law and even Russian Law, they are “illegal combatants”, really, POW camp, 3 meals a day, Court appointed lawyers or Rudi 9/11 years returning all the favours,…….?????
One should treat everybody, including insurgents, according to the Conventions, but we know that doesn’t happen, and the RU just stripped their entire RU forces, plus their mercs of those protections.
Alison Rose ???
Maybe this is me being late-night belligerent again, but maybe I don’t want a world in which sitting by and sadly shaking our heads while thousands upon thousands of people are about to be murdered by a delusional maniac is considered the right thing to do.
“Putin will do worse if anyone else steps in.” Putin will do worse regardless of what anyone else does. And if we do nothing, how the fuck can we see ourselves as being on the good side? I simply cannot find a way in my soul to feel righteous about sacrificing countless numbers of lives when the counterargument seems to be saying that those lives aren’t worth as much as ours.
Jay
@Kalakal:
if you are going to make and share, pixellate the faces and don’t doxx them. I agree with the IRC.
Jay
@Alison Rose ???:
did you read the earlier posts that pointed out that if Ukraine wins, we all win, if NATO wins the war, Putin wins,
yes, it sucks.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jay: I can’t believe I am having this discussion on Balloon Juice. It isn’t something that would be nice. It is what should happen.
BeautifulPlumage
Germany has signed a gas agreement with Qatar, so that will cut the money going to Russia, eventually.
This tweet explains that Ukraine rebuilt defenses to the north that Lenin built, with maps:
https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1505305601571753995
Omnes Omnibus
@Alison Rose ???: What do you think should be done?
ETA: Something isn’t really an answer.
RaflW
@bbleh: Some court-watcher read between the lines of the official statement from Thomas’ office and said it sounded a lot like he wasn’t going to participate remotely, unlike RBG did when she was hospitalized.
If he’s recovering well, why can’t he zoom in to the Court?
divF
@Carlo Graziani:
Carlo –
IIUC, the argument for not getting involved that you gave a few nights ago is that, if the US / Nato gets involved, our warfighting doctrine is to establish air superiority, which means blinding the Russian air defenses, which for the Russians means putting the Russian nukes on a hair-trigger or worse. The difficulty I have with this argument is that it is equally compelling if the country being attacked is not Ukraine, but is a member of Nato (e.g. Poland). I find it difficult to believe that we do not have a plan B for warfighting that does not involve triggering a nuclear exchange. If we do, why could it not be applied equally well to the present situation?
I’m not suggesting we undertake this lightly. However, if mass slaughter of civilians by the Russian forces starts, I think that we will want to find a way to stop it.
Alison Rose ???
@Omnes Omnibus: I have literally 0 expertise or knowledge in anything relevant. I also don’t think I have to have concrete actionable answers in order to express grief at the atrocities that seem very likely to happen. I am not an idiot and I understand the implications of the US or other countries stepping in. It doesn’t mean I can emotionally cope with what will happen if they don’t.
JAFD
If you’re in a fighting army, you want the enemy to put hands up and surrender. If they fight to last man and last bullet, your buddies will die killing them.
Back in the ‘gentlemen’s wars’ of the 1700’s, was accepted protocol – besiegers ‘finished the third parallel’ or ‘made a practical breech in the walls’, and the garrison would ‘surrender with honor’, march out with their arms, colors flying and bullets clenched in teeth, and have safe-conduct to the rest of their forces. The 20th century, though – the ‘concentration camps’ of the Boer War, the massacre at Malmedy, the legendary antipathy of the Canadian army and the SS … And that was on the Western Front.
Omnes Omnibus
@JAFD: And that is why the Geneva Conventions exist.
Sebastian
@Hangö Kex:
Welcome! One of the Original Gangsters in How-to-kick-the-Russians!
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
This, a thousand times this. There is no turning back.
We all have stared into the abyss.
JoyceH
@RaflW:
Spit-ballin’ here, but just maybe – because he’s a wuss? Not saying he’s weak necessarily, but RBG was tougher than Thomas after she’d been dead a week.
Villago Delenda Est
@PJ:
I ran into a senior citizen type in the 80s in Germany who said if there was a war with France, he’d volunteer. That was of course 40 or so years ago. I’m sure younger Germans have no problems with the French, but even middle aged German tourguides for a trip to Paris were making remarks about the French. Like their McDonald’s weren’t as good as German McDonald’s.
Omnes Omnibus
@Villago Delenda Est: I always wondered a bit about the Germans from that generation that I met. “What did you do in the war?”
Villago Delenda Est
@Omnes Omnibus: I found it interesting that the West Germans close to the IDG (Innerdeutsche Grenze, for WaterGirl) were very friendly towards US troops, while the farther west you got from their, the friendliness declined. Cole, having bin in the 11th ACR, was surrounded by friendly Germans. Me, being either in Bad Kreuznach (8 ID Mech HQ) or Wiesbaden, less so.
Cathie from Canada
@Carlo Graziani: Thank you for this brilliant comment — such insight, and so well written. I look for your comments in every thread now, and I quoted this one in my blog tonight too.
Tehanu
@Cathie from Canada:
Yes, me too.
Ishiyama
@Jay:
@Omnes Omnibus:
yes, and no.
it would be nice to sort it all out in the Courts after the war,
but let’s say you get the upper hand on a bunch of Wagner mercs, that just executed an entire kindergarten class, knowing that under International law and even Russian Law, they are “illegal combatants”, really, POW camp, 3 meals a day, Court appointed lawyers or Rudi 9/11 years returning all the favours,…….?????
One should treat everybody, including insurgents, according to the Conventions, but we know that doesn’t happen, and the RU just stripped their entire RU forces, plus their mercs of those protections.
I would distinguish between the circumstance of soldiers being caught red-handed in atrocities (where even being enrolled in a State military would not protect against a vengeful spirit, regardless of the laws of war), and an announced policy that acts to deter mercenaries from accepting contracts for military service. Mercenaries are a continual menace to popular government and have no legitimate place in a civilized world (FWIW).
(Sorry I still don’t know how to quote properly. I’m pretty old, I remember Camelot.)
Ruckus
@Suzanne:
vlad is getting desperate. He expected to walk in and take over. Many of his troops seemingly do not want to kill unarmed civilians so they have to back down or do the unthinkable. And the Russian military has a very crappy decision making rational/procedure. Yes they will do a lot of damage and cause a lot of death. But they are trying to win against unarmed civilians who are mostly not attacking them but not letting them do whatever the hell they want. Ukraine is after all an independent country and everyone but vlad seems to know this.
patrick II
Putin’s threat of destroying Mariupol reminds me of Richard Boone in Hombre threatening Paul Newman’s character and then asking Newman if he had any questions.
“Yeah, how do you think you are going to get back down that hill?”
If things continue to go the way things are for the Russian army, without enough fuel and equipment to move forward let alone back to Russia, Putin might be asked “how are you going to get that army back down the hill?”
Medicine Man
At this point, I am so bleak about the likelihood of mass atrocities that I can only take solace in the knowledge that these terrible acts will further harden opposition to Russia in Europe and elsewhere. I’m still worried that there are people here who will simply want cheap gas and cheap food and the “good times” back and who cares about “elsewhere”. So, by all means Putin, drive home the point that you’re not a chap we can do business with; that’s a sad farce that needs to be permanently buried.
The more terrible this gets, the less chance Europe/NATO finds some excuse to not vouchsafe Ukraine’s security after the war and backslides into some short-sighted whinge about cheap fuel. That’s all I’ve got in the absence of big boot to slow Putin’s roll.
Uncle Cosmo
The crazy thing is, they still only get the bronze medal in “duration of grievance, Europe.” And it isn’t even close:
The silver goes to the Greeks, who have never forgiven the Fourth Crusade for hanging a left on their way to the Holy Land and sacking Constantinople in 1204.
And the gold is awarded to Éire, which is still roused to high dudgeon when reminded of Strongbow’s invasion of their isle in 1170.
Shalimar
@Jay: The Geneva Conventions are a statement of our morality and humanity and empathy for fellow human beings. Violate their spirit for whatever reason you can self-justify and you’re no better a human being than Dick Cheney.
Ishiyama
It may seem like a lawyer’s quibble, but what you are making reference to is better identified as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which is an aspirational document without an enforcement measure. The various Geneva Conventions relating to war include protections, both for combatants and non-combatants, and violations can be punished. However, there are strict boundaries that define to whom those protections apply. Mercenaries lack the element of State control and discipline, which arguably places them outside those protections. “Unlawful combatants” are a real thing, and employing unlawful combatants in a war is itself a violation of the Geneva Conventions.
(The entire Russian operation to kill Zelenskyy at the start of the invasion by sending combatants not in uniform is an example of a breach of the Conventions requiring that soldiers wear identifiable uniforms; any of those men could have been shot as spies.)
burnspbesq
@Villago Delenda Est:
I’ve eaten McDonalds on the Champs Elysees and in Terminal 1 at FRA. Guy’s not wrong.
ETA: McDonalds on Bahnhofstrasse in Zurich is better than both.
bjacques
@Uncle Cosmo: “1389” features in the excellent Norwegian black comedy “In Order Of Disappearance”, starring Stellan Skarsgård.
mario
can someone take away Adam’s exclamation point key?
lee
@Jay:
It looks like there are about a divisions worth of volunteers in UA. A majority of which have some combat experience and a vast majority are at least prior service.
Steve in the ATL
@RaflW:
Because he’s an asshole.
Carlo Graziani
@divF:
Sorry for the delayed response, I crashed last night after putting in that.
There is a difference between an attack on a NATO treaty member and a NATO intervention in Ukraine, of course. In the former case — say an attack on a resupply base in Poland, for example — some kind of military response would be mandatory. But it would have to be done with the risks kept firmly in view — strictly proportionately or slightly sub-proportionately, and with concomitant public and private messaging directed at de-escalation. The working assumption being that the Russians are also uninterested in having their homeland turned to radioactive slag. Everybody involved with an capacity for cognition would be shitting their pants.
This is the irony: if we were fighting the Soviet Union, the margins for error would probably be much larger, because the Soviets had a far more powerful and deep conventional army. The Russian Army is tiny and weak compared to the Soviet Army, and the threshold in a straight-up NATO-Russia fight where they reach into their nuclear arsenal is far lower. But the horrible consequences are the same as they would have been during the Cold War.
Incidentally, regarding your nym: what sort of flux is F?