Jen Psaki has National Security Advisory Jake Sullivan with her at the today’s press briefing. The briefing just started, and no Jen Psaki, because Jen tested positive for Covid – and has Covid for a second time. Good thoughts for Jen Psaki.
Someone from Jen’s staff spoke for a minute about the Supreme Court hearings, and now Jake Sullivan is up.
In my experience, the questions to guests at the press briefings are typically less inane than the questions Jen Psaki usually gets in per briefings.
Open thread.
WaterGirl
Nothing good comes from ditching masks just because we are tired of the fucking pandemic.
James E Powell
@WaterGirl:
Totally agree. Effective tomorrow, my employer, Los Angeles Schools, will no longer require masks indoors.
In his email announcing the change, our brand new superintendent says he “strongly supports” ending the mask requirement. He does not say why. Then he says, “Now that this important issue is behind us, it is time to focus on each student’s full academic potential.”
What do masks have to do with that?
What makes him think we were not focused on each student’s full academic potential before he was hired?
I had two students out last week with positive COVID tests. No student has ever complained to me about the masks. (NB – They complain about every thing that bothers them.) What makes them all so sure that masks are the problem?
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1506265327973376009?s=20&t=EzT4vO6rfx8ApKcLzDz1-g
Looks like an entire Russian army may be encircled any day now.
My notion is that anybody captured at the rank of major and above gets a noose. They’re reusable, and the war crimes are obvious.
Dangerman
@WaterGirl: I still mask up. Then I don’t have to shave every day. Win. Win.
Now if I can only do something with this noose around my neck called a “tie”.
Betty Cracker
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Wow, that’s mindboggling if true! I am against mass executions, but the tweeter is right that such a massive defeat of the Russian Army would create a dilemma about what to do with all the POWs.
WaterGirl
@Dangerman: I mask up also. I feel bad for Jen.
Gin & Tonic
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Interesting Tweet as part of a Kamil Galeev thread. The Russian kids that are there, are from shithole towns in the middle of nowhere, with no prospects. They’re the ones who either don’t know someone who can get them out or don’t have money to buy their way out of serving. I know this has been suggested elsewhere before, but offer them 5,000 Euros and an EU visa, and they’re gone.
Spanky
There’s a new backpfeifengesicht candidate.
Gin & Tonic
@Betty Cracker: I think they should be taught the history of Katyn.
Benw
@WaterGirl: @James E Powell: yes and yes. Masks don’t just work on Covid – they can help stop cold and flu transmission if we could just normalize wearing one when symptomatic. Fewer sick kids means missing fewer days of school. My daughter’s up to 20+ days missed this year, and our district made masks optional 2 weeks ago!
CaseyL
I feel bad for Jen, getting Covid not once but twice. I hope the symptoms are mild and she gets better soon.
Very short, as press conferences go. More like a teaser trailer: “Stay tuned for Thursdays press conference, when we will talk more about sanctions, posture, and kicking Putin in the balls!”
sdhays
@Betty Cracker: Surely, that’s something that NATO can help out with. As long as Ukraine can get POW’s to a NATO border, NATO should be able to take care of housing and feeding them and keeping them out of trouble.
ETA: I have no particular knowledge about this, it just seems the obvious thing to do. And while we know Putin and his regime really don’t care whether Russian soldiers live, die, or are tortured, I expect knowing that you’d be sent to a nice, comfortable NATO prison with warm food, guarded by people who aren’t actively at war with you and suffering horrible atrocities at your country’s hands would make the prospect of surrender more appealing to actual Russian soldiers.
geg6
@James E Powell:
It’s not the problem and they know it. But they are sick of hearing about it from insane parents and just want to stop getting screamed at by mentally iffy assholes who probably have guns.
Baud
@Benw:
Masks are condoms for the face.
Gin & Tonic
This is a long but very interesting thread about differences in how the “west” and Ukraine view and interact with Russia.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: Who is the “they” and for those of us in the cheap seats who don’t know all the history of the region, what is the history of Katyn?
WaterGirl
@CaseyL: Well, they were prepared for Jen to do the press briefing, so I’m not surprised if it was shorter than normal.
WaterGirl
I saw this on twitter just now, I missed it when it happened yesterday.
Nicole
Oh, that sucks that Psaki has Covid again! Ugh. I know she’ll be fine; vaccines are awesome, but man. I wonder if this is a new infection or the old one continuing to shed out.
Betty Cracker
@WaterGirl: Here’s what I wonder: what is the magnitude of the United States’ cyber capacity, and how has it been deployed?
WaterGirl
@Nicole: Jen is tested frequently, so I can’t imagine that it’s the previous Covid infection suddenly showing up again.
If I’m Jen’s husband, I am lobbying for her to tie up her role as Press Secretary sooner rather than later. I know Jen said she promised at least a year, but this war, I’m guessing, is extending her stay as Press Secretary.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Betty Cracker:
Thats why my solution is so elegant. It recognizes the extreme hierarchy of the conscript army, and holds those who give the orders responsible.
Hell, they have dress uniforms with them. Let them wear ‘em while they kick.
Gin & Tonic
@WaterGirl: Le Comte was suggesting a fate for the allegedly surrounded Russians (at least their officers.) BCrack chimed in, so “they” is that cohort. Katyn is where the NKVD executed some 22,000 captured Polish officers in the spring of 1940. Poland remembers.
This is where many members of the Polish government were flying in April of 2011 when their plane crashed. Many Poles view that crash as a continuation of the 1940 massacre.
WaterGirl
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: How can you possibly think it’s a good idea for the good guys to violate the Geneva Convention???
Steeplejack
@Gin & Tonic:
Just read that. Agree that it is very informative.
Spanky
@Betty Cracker:
Assume this: It’s the best in the world, and it has been deployed both offensively and defensively.
Also assume this: The better players never show their hands.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you. So you were mentioning that as a cautionary tale rather than as something to be emulated.
Uncle Cosmo
I’m sure someone will get here before me (ETA: G&T at #23, natch) but just in case not, you could click here.
IIUC the massacre was part & parcel of the Soviets’ postwar intentions to make Poland its satellite (after shoving its borders 100 km westward).
mrmoshpotato
@WaterGirl:
Amen.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Spanky: also, as I read the White House statement, they were telling the private sector to up their game.
I should say, I know enough not to click on emails with funny fonts and telling me I won a prize, not much more
Gravenstone
@Gin & Tonic: In the Twitter thread, there was a suggestion the Poland might step up to deal with the POW influx. Maybe I am misinterpreting things, but that seems to me like a potential excuse for Putin to move against Poland in turn, to “rescue” his troops. Not that he really needs one right now, a he likely thrashes about in anger and his failure to secure Ukraine.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
My comments were a poor jest.
And no, the POWs should not be moved anywhere outside of Ukraine. That would be a cassus belli that Putin would exploit.
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: Someone in our government made reference to the strength of our cyber game – but I don’t recall who said it – most likely in a press briefing from last week.
I took the answer/comment as “we’ve got game” in that arena.
Soprano2
@WaterGirl: I don’t know if it will help, but right after Russia attacked Ukraine our IT people blocked all foreign access to our servers, out of an abundance of caution. They e-mailed us and said if we needed an exception we needed to let them know, but I doubt we have many people here who communicate with someone overseas.
Gin & Tonic
@WaterGirl: Was I?
Another Scott
I hope Biden is masking up whenever he is around others. :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: They also met with reps from the 150 most-at-risk companies who provide infrastructure in this country. The meeting was (earlier this week or last week, I don’t recall the exact timing) FOR A CLASSIFIED BRIEFING.
Then they announced more generally to the rest of the US companies to patch their stuff because shit is about to get real.
My paraphrase, of course.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: I debated whether to put a question mark at the end of my sentence. So perhaps you were suggesting that payback’s a bitch?
gvg
@sdhays: I don’t see why it would be considered easier to move POW’s out of Ukraine as opposed to evacuating citizens through fake “humanitarian” corridors or getting food and medicines to Ukrainian citizens. The Russians are attacking everywhere and are hitting hospitals and neighborhoods. They are leaving their own dead and aren’t able to keep their own unsurrendered troops fed apparently. I think they will just keep shelling even if it’s their own troops. They can lie and say its a ruse and it was really resupply to the Ukrainians or blame the Ukrainians for not keeping them safe-to their own public.
All logistics are hard in a war zone.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: From answers to the questions on that subject in the briefings, I get the impression that he is not. But anyone in close contact does have to be tested before they are with the President, so there’s that.
Baud
We never should have canceled CSI Cyber.
WaterGirl
@Baud:
They should never have made CSI Cyber, possibly the worst non-sitcom program ever made.
Doug R
@WaterGirl: You gotta give the next Russian dictator something to “whatabout” next time they commit war crimes.
Seriously, though I wouldn’t mind trials and long sentences for those giving orders to target civilians.
Ken
Why? Putin’s shown no hesitation at just making stuff up, and I doubt the next one will be any better.
Martin
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Been waiting for this. A week or two ago there was a mention of using the flood control from the Kyiv Reservoir to flood the Tetariv, which flows past Ivankiv. That didn’t happen right away, so I thought it was speculation, but that seems to be what has happened in the last week based on satellite photos. the town of Ivankiv is completely flooded, and Russia can’t cross that any longer. Their bridging equipment can’t cross a flood plain. They might be able to build a pontoon bridge, but it doesn’t seem like they’re prepared for that.
Last night Ukraine took back Makariv so they seem to have bottled up Russias advance from the northwest. Ukraine has held them from Kyiv, they can’t retreat north of Ivankiv because of the flooding, they can’t really swing west due to the lack of roads and passable terrain. Their only ability to get resupplied is from the air.
The downside is that Ukraine is now also blocked from moving north of Ivankiv to retake Chernobyl, etc. but I think that’s the least of their concerns at the moment. This should give Kyiv complete ground protection from west of the reservoir, which if nothing else keeps the city from getting surrounded and keeps supply lines open.
The delay may have been that there is no flood control on the Tetariv. I think it’s all controlled by the hydro plant in Vyshhorod and they may have needed the water level to rise naturally which can take a while. Also, raising the water level requires not running the hydro plant which is probably providing power to Kyiv and given the low temps they might have wanted to keep at least some power flowing.
But Ukraine probably has options here. They can just hold the line and let the Russians starve, but that runs the risk that Russia is able to reopen a supply line from the north. They could just bypass them, figuring they are combat ineffective with no food, fuel, ammo and push into Ivankiv and push in from the west toward Chernobyl. Or they can just run them over and maybe pickup some equipment in the process.
Given what’s going on in Belarus, I might buy those folks some time because Russia might be losing their capacity to bring supplies across Belarus, which would make retaking Chernobyl a lot easier. None of this affects Russias ability to use long range missiles against Kyiv or Ukrainian forces, air assets, etc. It just keeps tanks from rolling in, which is a hell of a good start.
Hopefully that will also allow Ukraine to shift forces from the northwest of Kyiv to push south toward Mykolayiv and bolster that counteroffensive toward Kherson, or to intercept that flanking move by Russia to surround the Ukrainian forces in the east.
pluky
@Betty Cracker: Offer them free passage to the West. Bet they’ll jump at the chance.
Steeplejack
@Baud:
Amen to that. [Shakes head.]
Nicole
@WaterGirl:
That’s why I wondered if it’s the original, but I can’t remember if it was over 90 days since she last tested positive. When you test positive, PCR tests are no good for 3 months afterwards because the test can’t tell the difference between living and dead virus. I know antigen is different, but after my positive test I was excused from any sort of Covid test for 3 months. I guess I’m just surprised, if it’s within 90 days, that she’s being tested at all (again, though, I can’t remember when she last had it; it may have been over 90 days).
Martin
@Soprano2: A lot of US companies have employees in Ukraine. Lots of tech companies do, at least. They needed to cut off those employees entirely, because of this.
It’d be fair to say that if Russia had found vulnerabilities in US infrastructure, they’d sit on it until they needed it rather than reveal it. I cannot articulate just how badly some of this shit is run and maintained. I’m glad the WH had that briefing, but I doubt it’ll matter that much. These guys are typically miles from where they need to be. Feds need to strongly regulate critical infrastructure IT because that’s the only way its going to happen.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Gin & Tonic:
The Taliban did just that last year: negotiate and financially compensate for mass surrenders.
Brachiator
@WaterGirl:
Can we come to an agreement with them to keep her on as Press Secretary?
She’s my fave.
Another Scott
@Nicole: Her previous positive was October 31 (about 4.75 months ago). The test today was a PCR test.
Here’s hoping she’s back soon, and stops getting infected!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack
Lengthy thread by Mark Hertling on the probable level of military casualties in Ukraine (high).
Thread Reader version here.
Bill Arnold
@Benw:
They work a lot better on less-infectious diseases like influenza and various “cold” viruses. Even a completely-novel influenza has a R0 of like 1.6 (Omicron is like 7), and masks and other public health measures can completely block spread if they reduce R to less than 1.0. This is easy, as demonstrated by 3 missing influenza seasons (2 in the southern hemisphere) during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@WaterGirl:
Wait, what? This is a thing?!??
sdhays
@gvg: The problem is dealing with POW’s. You want to get them away from the front lines because you don’t want your fighting forces dealing with them while fighting the war. So, assuming the Ukrainian armed forces can get POW’s away from the front lines and handed off to a less critical force, it should be comparatively easy to ship them west. At least that’s what makes sense from my novice thinking.
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Could you expand on this? If he wants to attack, say, Poland, what army is he going to do that with? His current army is being fairly rapidly destroyed in the muds of the Ukrainian plains. He really can’t afford to open up a new front with NATO. Are you suggesting that it could be a nuclear red line?
Gin & Tonic
So, talking about buying them out?
Bill Arnold
@sdhays:
The Russians haven’t even been collecting most of the dead bodies of dead Russian soldiers. (It is reported.)
Russian soldiers (any soldiers, really) are much more likely to surrender if they believe they will be treated well. We can be sure without even bothering to look that Russian propagandists are spreading rumors that surrendering Russian soldiers will be tortured and/or killed. (The Chechens made and distributed videos of the torture of(non-Chechen)Russian soldiers and those are within memory of many Russians, so it is/will be easy recycle those memories.)
Origuy
I could save this for a good news thread, but good news is always welcome.
Dopey-o
1. Russian POWs shipped to Poland.
2. Putin objects, fires cruise missiles into Warsaw.
3. NATO invokes Article 5 in support of Poland.
4. WW III ramps up when Putin nukes Warsaw and Berlin.
5. Everyone dies.
6. Adam proven right.
lowtechcyclist
Damned straight.
ETA: I’ve always said I’d be one of the last people to ditch their masks in public, and that still holds. When Covid’s killing fewer Americans than automobiles do, I think I may relax.
@James E Powell:
My kiddo is in high school, and he complains about a lot of things, as kids that age will. Masks haven’t been one of them.
Bill Arnold
@WaterGirl:
Yes, there is definitely a push. Reality of it, I don’t know. The infosec world has been busier than usual the last few weeks. And e.g. one might have noticed browser patches (firefox, chrome, brave at least). This infosec hyperactivity is a good thing in that it can quickly change the landscape negatively for attackers, and that can discourage attacks.
I hope the Russians are not so stupid as to underestimate The West, again.
sdhays
@Dopey-o: Yes, but is there something specific that makes shipping POW’s to Poland more of an offense than shipping tens of thousands of advanced weapons across the Ukrainian border?
We’re already doing lots of things that Putin has called “acts of war”, including the sanctions. Is there something that makes giving POW’s to NATO more of an escalation? I can appreciate that it might be, but is there something specific that makes it obvious to the non-ignorant?
Fake Irishman
@Gin & Tonic:
This is a good thread with all sorts of interesting nuggets about how Ukraine has been developing and adjusting logistically and intellectually under the threat of the Russian bear. It’s quite an accomplishment that parliament and national governmental agencies are working as well as they are under these conditions. I do wonder who the “west” is in this particular case —- American media outlets? NATO country diplomats? NGOs leadership in Geneva? Certain talking head “experts”?
Gin & Tonic
@Bill Arnold: Speaking of “the cyber,” it appears that the Ukrainians have acquired an object which I’m sure will be of *enormous* interest to US intel.
Fake Irishman
@Gin & Tonic: also, how are family members holding up? I seem to recall you’ve got a nephew in Kyiv that was worrying you quite a bit and maybe some other folks?
WaterGirl
@Nicole: It’s been way longer than 3 months, sounds like closer to 5.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Dopey-o: The real problem is “This will start a nuclear war” is as Adam has been also pointing out Putin is batshit nuts. If Putin just got to start it, then it’s going to happen, so, no point in bother second guessing him.
Fake Irishman
@sdhays:
i think in this particular case that you are dealing directly with soldiers as POWS in a conflict you technically aren’t a party to rather than merely doing business with one of the combatants.
Ken
Hillary’s server? Hunter’s laptop?
trollhattan
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
There will be exchanges of many kinds. IIRC one kidnapped Ukrainian mayor was exchanged for half a dozen Russian POWs last week.
As things are, Russia can simply continue isolating Mariupol and most of the hundreds of thousands trapped will die. They will use this as a bargaining chip should Ukraine capture thousands of troops.
OTOH it will be interesting should that happen, to see how many refuse to go back.
Omnes Omnibus
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: No, just fucking no. War crimes do not justify war crimes.
trollhattan
@Ken: Call Barron, stat! He does the cybers.
If the speculation pans out, this is like capturing Enigma.
Martin
Someone yesterday mentioned that Russia’s main tank manufacturer stopped production due to a lack of resources. This should have been expected. In fact, you should expect it everywhere in Russia.
There are very few industries in very few countries that are entirely self sufficient within national borders. Almost every industry needs to drag some element across its border – or at least chooses to do so because of cost, quality, availability or intellectual property. If you have 95% of your industry self-sufficient, but can’t import that last 5% because it’s from a US company, or needs a shipper that won’t go to your country, or whatever, then you’re shut down. And it’s not just the resources to make the thing, it’s also the equipment used to make it and on down the line. Things break, you need spare parts, you need consumable resources, and so on. That why you want to be a good global citizen – it gives you access to these things, and backups to that as well.
This is what the US and the west are trying to do. To cut Russia off from so much of their external sources that nothing functions any more. Today they can harvest enough wheat to feed the country, but what about next year when they can’t get parts for their tractors, most of which come from the Czech Republic. And Russia never really even made an attemtp to protect national industries. In part because envisioning themselves as a global entity like the US, they figured they could operate as the US does. But they aren’t, and they don’t act like a nation that wants to maintain global relations. And this is also in part because whatever industrial progress Russia makes, their leaders steal. In spite of Russias pivot to capitalism, Russia is worse at a whole bunch of stuff than they were under the USSR. They’ve somehow managed to preserve the worst aspects of both capitalism and communism. I mean, even their main industry – oil – they are pretty much entirely dependent on US drillers like Halliburton, and they’ve all left the country. Russia never even developed their own expertise in the very thing they were most economically dependent on, probably because you couldn’t steal from it.
Russia will likely still have a lifeline through China, but that’s about it. And we’ll see how willing China will be to serve that market and put up with the harassment the west gives them over that.
lowtechcyclist
Here’s an idea about the (non-officer) POWs, a variant of a couple things suggested in this thread and elsewhere:
Offer then 5000 Euros (or its equivalent in their destination’s currency), their freedom, and transport to any non-NATO, non-Russia-friendly country they’d like to go to that is willing to let them in. Brazil, Tanzania, wherever. Take them there, give them the money, and turn them loose. Problem solved.
Ukraine should of course keep the officers imprisoned for future war crimes trials.
Ishiyama
Of course you are correct. Then again, if you turn the senior officers over to the enlisted men of the surrendered army, they might have their own ideas.
Bill Arnold
@Gin & Tonic:
LOL, definitely a win for both Ukraine and the US if they don’t already have one.
The wikipedia article was updated today to mention the (alleged) capture.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krasukha_(electronic_warfare_system)
Gin & Tonic
@Fake Irishman: So far so good. I’d rather not go into detail.
japa21
@Gin & Tonic: They have been in my thoughts. I know you don’t want to provide any even vague details and we all respect that desire.
catclub
almost entirely against Iran?
WaterGirl
@Brachiator: It’s Jen who only promised to do it for a year, not the President only keeping her for a year. I’m sure they would be thrilled to keep her in that role forever.
My worry is that the second bout of Covid might get her to stick to her guns on being press secretary for a shorter term than I would like.
WaterGirl
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Just be grateful that you never saw the show. A-W-F-U-L.
Fake Irishman
@Gin & Tonic:
Glad to hear it. Also, no need to violate specific operational/familial security on our account; your [dysfunctional] family on this blog just cares that your family irl are as OK as they can be in a war zone.
Bill Arnold
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
It’s a matter of probabilities, and “nuts” is not a precise diagnosis. Analysts are doing their best to estimate probabilities/risks. With thermonuclear warfare in play, nation-level leaders not making a serious attempt to assess risks would be a psychopathic act, akin to picking up a revolver and playing Russian roulette with it without bothering to check to see how many cylinders have cartridges.
Except that the bullet would kill not only oneself, but also most of the people one cares about and billions more humans worldwide.
More importantly, perhaps, Putin does not have a “button” – he issues orders through a device like the the US “football”, which one or more somebodies (I do not know the details, but they probably have families and friends) in the military hierarchy would need to obey.
Benw
@Bill Arnold: “Even a completely-novel influenza has a R0 of like 1.6 (Omicron is like 7)”
Good to know!
Martin
@Fake Irishman: I’d expect it to be those countries that do not have regular on-the-ground interaction with Russia, either because they aren’t on the border, or because they weren’t Warsaw Pact at some point in the past.
And I’ve observed that as well. US and much of NATO is presented as very detached and academic. They have a certain bias toward how they want this to work. While Ukraine and some others in the region are dismissed as not having the kind of access to spy networks that the ‘west’ has, as being too biased due to old grudges, etc. (as if the US isn’t susceptible to that <cough>Cuba</cough>).
At the core I think is the nuclear veto. Ukraine kind of has nothing to lose here. Triggering a nuclear exchange doesn’t materially worse then situation given what’s happening in Mariupol. Same for their neighbors. The delta between stepping over the line and not stepping over the line is pretty small for them. But for Germany west, it’s different. There is no imminent risk to any of these nations of a conventional war, but there is of a nuclear one. If you’re going to go nuclear, you don’t drop it on Kyiv, you drop it on DC. Either one will trigger the same response from the west, so you might as well go for it. So in a lot of ways the ‘west’ doesn’t want those voices to have credibility because it raises the risk level for countries like the US, UK, Germany, etc., even though those voices in Ukraine, Lithuania, Finland, etc are probably correct.
Fake Irishman
@Omnes Omnibus:
thanks for your continued sanity in times of difficulty.
Frankensteinbeck
@Martin:
I am told that Putin made a policy/project of rendering Russia’s industries completely independent and self-sufficient to prevent exactly this problem – and that he failed utterly. From what we’re hearing about Putin’s ‘shoot the messenger’ policy, he may not know that yet.
Bostondreams
way off topic, but DeSantis calls trans women ‘basically men’.
God I really hope he never becomes president.
Martin
@Bill Arnold: Omicron is higher than 7. And BA.2 is estimated to be between 12 and 15.
It’s high enough that to drive it back under 1 you need 95% vaccination plus masking. That’s why California switched to an endemic strategy. There’s no way to get there.
The mistake is that everyone has interpreted ‘endemic’ as ‘will go away’. It just means that we can’t make it go away, but we can still compartmentalize it. Rather than locking the whole state down, you lock down counties, or cities, or neighborhoods. You tip up and tear down mask mandates as needed. It’s a shift toward agility, but not a reduction in effort.
zhena gogolia
@Fake Irishman: Seconded.
@Omnes Omnibus:
Betty Cracker
@Bostondreams: He is truly horrible and one of the most breathtakingly cynical pols I’ve ever seen, and that is saying something considering I’ve watched FL politics all my life. I share your hope that he never becomes POTUS but he’s shrewd enough to have teed up the 2024 GOP nomination unless Trump fucks it up for him. Or I suppose the voters of Florida could be a fly in the ointment, but that doesn’t seem likely
ETA: I still occasionally entertain hope DeSantis’s act won’t resonate outside of FL and he’ll fizzle like a Pawlenty, Jeb, Walker, etc. I don’t think we can count on that. He’s mean as fuck, and the modern GOP loves a snarly prick. Also, he’s managed to build an army of cultists already here, and I don’t think Republicans in the other 49 are any better than FL maga-dopes.
Wapiti
@sdhays: Reading International Red Cross stuff on it, POWs can be sent to and held in a neutral county IF the parties to the conflict and the neutral country agree.
(The Red Cross materials also say that war material may not be shipped by a neutral to a warring state, so… maybe the US and the EU aren’t so neutral.)
In my opinion, it might be easiest to put the POW camps in the western part of Ukraine, close to the border. Ship in tentage and construction materials for building the camps, as well as food and care packages. Heck, use the western volunteers that haven’t gotten issued weapons yet as labor, or the POWs if that’s permitted. Use separate transportation corridors from the west to the POW camps and the refugee/war material flows.
geg6
@WaterGirl:
All I know is that the University has done numerous “updates” to our servers and even our individual computers over the last two weeks. We’re used to these updates, but not so many over such a short period of time. We are all speculating that it’s due to some sort of threat management protocol.
Bill Arnold
@Martin:
7 was just the lowest number I could find.
N95 masks/respirators are pretty good, so our collective masking game could be a lot better than it was in e.g. 2020, in locations that allow public health measures against respiratory viruses.
Kelly
Seems the Ukrainian POW policy is “Here’s a nice cup of tea, food and a phone. Call your mother and tell her you’re OK.” Word of good treatment is likely get around. “For you the war is over”
Soprano2
@Martin: I know that our IT people are obsessive about security for our mainframe because we’re a city government. They periodically send out phishing tests for employees, which sometimes are good and sometimes are comically bad. If you fail they lock you out of the network and you have to call them to get your password back. Ask me how I know that. LOL
sdhays
@Wapiti: Ah, ok. That clarifies things. Thanks!
There aren’t many countries in Europe that would count as “neutral”.
Martin
@Frankensteinbeck: Yeah, exactly this. A while back Putin was concerned that Russian semiconductors weren’t competitive with the west. They were 8 years behind. So they started a big program to catch up and a decade later they were 15 years behind.
Visa and Mastercard cut off Russia, so Russian banks need to reissue a ton of cards. Their industry who can make the chips in the cards has a monthly output less than 5% of what they need, and there’s a number of critical resources they don’t produce in Russia, so they’re trying to figure out how to get China (who also doesn’t produce them) to act as middleman. And they can’t get plastic for the cards.
Russia has been increasing their production of plastics, but they still produce no more than about ⅓ of what they need. Which is impressive as country whose primary industry is oil. You’d think they’d focus on building out the plastics sector so they could get the additional value out of the processed oil vs the raw oil, but no, they didn’t do that and only recently started to crank things up. So South Korea and Germany import Russian oil to turn it into plastic to sell it back to Russia. And both of those supplies are now cut off, as are almost all other sources.
And could Russia increase their plastic production? In theory, but I bet the equipment to make the plastic is made in Germany, Japan, South Korea, etc. And that too is cut off.
Fake Irishman
@Soprano2:
Did the enhancement pills work?
….asking for a friend, of course.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Omnes Omnibus:
Query – when the apparent professional development of Russian staff officers appears to be “when you aren’t having luck at fighting armed formations, switch to the soft targets and be brutal”, how do you burn that out of the system?
Martin
@Soprano2: If they are reliant on password management for security, they’ve already failed.
Quiltingfool
Trae Crowder’s thoughts on Judge Jackson’s confirmation hearing.
https://twitter.com/traecrowder/status/1506344304272306177?s=20&t=cP7r3dEbfdFuNOSWcQvZiA
SiubhanDuinne
The Ketanji Brown Jackson thread from this morning has long since shuffled off this mortal coil, so I’ll take advantage of this Open Thread to be incredibly shallow, to wit:
I think it’s a shame that the Supremes always have to wear those dreary old black robes, because Judge KBJ looks specfuckingtacular in red. I wish she could show up on the bench wearing that colour every day.
japa21
@SiubhanDuinne: Everbody has the right to be incredibly shallow at least once in her life. You just waited until middle age. Me, my life is spent in the shallows.
Omnes Omnibus
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Not with summary executions that will make Ukrainian soldiers war criminals.
WaterGirl
@Quiltingfool: This one is so good, it makes me want to have Trae Crowders babies.
Marc
Our IT department has been sending out lots of hyperactive emails. Just yesterday I got an email from a colleague who clicked on a link in yet another email from the “IT Department” (complete with the right logo) and dutifully provided user id, password, and 2nd factor code, then got suspicious only because nothing else happened. I had to carefully explain that our IT department does not send links in emails, that they needed to change their password, like right now, and watch out for suspicious transactions. Hyperactivity does not always trump human behavior.
Fake Irishman
@Omnes Omnibus:
right. We do have this thing at The Hague that can deal with those officers, at least in theory. Unlikely? Sure. But I do remember being an undergrad in 1998 and listening to a presentation by a classmate in an IR class about how Milosovic could be prosecuted. I thought, “sounds great, but no chance”
He died in custody while on trial.
granted these guys would take an several orders of magnitude more moxie to prosecute but these sorts of things seem impossible right up until they’re not.
ian
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
That is an interesting way of describing a policy of mass executions.
Quiltingfool
@WaterGirl: He’s a cutie, ain’t he? I’m physically old enough to be his Meemaw, but my mind refuses to accept being “old.” (My body constantly reminds my brain of my real age, damn it). In my mind, I’m not a day over 25, so, yeah, Trae is a hottie!
Spanky
Executing POWs is a supreme way to motivate your enemy to fight to the death.
zhena gogolia
There’s a lot of intense armchair warfare on this blog.
WaterGirl
@Quiltingfool: I suppose he’s cute enough, but I only want to bear his children because he’s smart and speaks for me!
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: We are better than that. At least most of us are. And we definitely should be better than that.
Ken
@ian: Maybe he was going for the proverbial “For every problem there is a solution that is simple, elegant, and wrong”?
WaterGirl
Text exchange between Cole and me just now:
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: I won’t do that retroactively, but we will do that going forward.
Starting now.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@WaterGirl: That was awesome
Geminid
@Omnes Omnibus: Aside from moral imperatives, a more practical problem is that executing prisoners inevitably brings reprisals from the other side.
After armed militias invaded the Michigan capital a year or so ago, someone here was angry enough to assert that this would not have happened if instead of paroling Lee’s army at Appomattox, and then Johnston’s army in North Carolina, U.S. troops had massacred them, as if this would have nipped our white supremacy problem in the bud. Aside from the fact that Lincoln, Grant and Sherman never, ever would have done this, if they had white Southerners would have butchered every Black man and boy they could get their hands on.
And the racism that permeated the North would have continued unabated anyway.
There are a lot of people who thirst for other people to carry out their vengeance fantasies.
SiubhanDuinne
@japa21:
HAHAHAHAHA! [Gasp!] HAHAHAHAHA!!!
You’re so sweet.
WaterGirl
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
Starting at 5:30 pm today, comments suggesting or encouraging war crimes will get people banned from BJ for 3 days. Per John Cole.
See my edit of your comment #3.
Sure Lurkalot
@WaterGirl: Wondrous how he spews out coherent point after point while hardly taking a breath.
Frankensteinbeck
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
I’m pretty sure these orders come straight from the top. ‘Just following orders’ may not be a defense in a war crime trial, but it makes a difference in what to expect going forward.
@Spanky:
One reason the Ukrainians are fighting to the death, I’m sure. Putin has not been subtle about saying he intends to kill everyone in Ukraine who is insufficiently Russian.
WaterGirl
@Sure Lurkalot: I know. Does he memorize it? Or is he speaking extemporaneously?
Either way, it’s impressive.
Martin
@WaterGirl: Clarification: Is skull fucking a kitten a war crime?
WaterGirl
@Martin: No it is not!
edit: always good to know the fine print! :-)
Omnes Omnibus
@Geminid: I am against it for moral, practical, and legal reasons. It’s one of several peeves I have been keeping as a pets since this war started. I will mention the others as needed going forward.
SiubhanDuinne
@WaterGirl:
Good for you and good for John. This is a beyond-tolerant blog, but there’s a limit. I’m glad you reached yours.
Ken
@WaterGirl: Are you going to front-page that policy? For those who don’t dig into the old threads before reading Adam’s nightly update, etc.
WaterGirl
@Ken: I don’t know that we will front-page that per se, but I can certainly copy that comment into other threads so people will know.
I have edited the comment policy – that hangs out in the BJ site footer – to include this:
I included the screen cap of the text in order to be transparent so there is no mystery about how it came about.
Does that seem fair?
bjacques
I’ve got friends who live across the plein from the Vredespaleis in The Hague, and I’d love to see wagonloads of Russian officers pulling up for pretrial detention. The place already looks empty since Bush and Blair aren’t there. It’s a shame they knocked down 5 of the 6 towers of the Bijlmer prison southeast of Amsterdam, given the expected need for capacity. Peskov is lucky he won’t have to cheat the hangman like Goebbels did. Anyway, I wish all in positions of responsibility for this massive war crime to sit in jail until everything they believed in has been repudiated and then forgotten except as fairy tales to frighten little kids thinking of embarking on careers as bullies.
Ken
@WaterGirl: Sure. Mainly I’d like to avoid “but I didn’t know” whining, though I guess I wouldn’t be seeing that.
debbie
@WaterGirl:
Why not pin a post so people can at least be forewarned?
WaterGirl
@Ken: Ha! But there might be a disturbance in the force.
Martin
John’s house, John’s rules.
In other news, Sen Mike Braun thinks individual states should be able to decide whether interracial marriage should be legal or not. So, we’re rolling the clock back to 1967. Do we have an earlier landmark ruling the GOP wants to throw out? Anyone wanna go for broke and take out Brown? We know you want to – that question keeps coming up in confirmation hearings.
Tinker seems like a no brainer. Miranda too. Gideon would just be fiscally responsible, so I’m guessing yes there
And questioning interracial marriage is a really classy move during the Jackson confirmation. But he’s not racist, you know.
japa21
@WaterGirl: Really this cancel culture of the left must be stopped. What about the First Amendment? Have we no rights? //s
japa21
@Martin:
They want both the 13th and 14th amendment considered unconstitutional.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
anybody post this from J-L Cauvin (who apparently has a JD from Georgetown?) yet?
WaterGirl
@debbie: I added a note in the sidebar, does that work for you?
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I hadn’t seen that before.
japa21
@WaterGirl: Does for me. Hard to miss, at least on my laptop. Not sure about phone.
Dan B
@Martin: Braun walked back saying he thought racism was terrible but was mum about Roe and Griswold. Seems like his right wing Christian views are showing.
Geminid
@japa21: Sounds like the “Woke” Geneva Convention is overriding the First Amendment here. There are plenty of other forums, though, where the blood thirsty can encourage others to carry out their vengeance fantasies.
Gin & Tonic
@bjacques:
I can assure you that this will *never* be forgotten in Ukraine.
SiubhanDuinne
@WaterGirl:
Adam has never been shy about deploying the banhammer. I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a point of this policy in tonight’s Ukraine thread. We’ll know, I guess, in a few hours.
Personal note: I’m in the middle of moving, and packing up STUFF is as tiresome and dreary as it’s always been. I let the staff know today that I’d be gone by the end of the month, and their reaction made me tear up. They don’t know yet that I’m giving each of them a crisp $50 bill in a handwritten personal thank-you note. It doesn’t seem much considering I’ve been here almost 2-1/2 years, but it totals to a fair chunk of change for me. I might also buy a sheet cake with a thank-you message for the entire staff to enjoy. They’re good people.
zhena gogolia
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: it’s great
Benw
@WaterGirl: seems fair to me. My heart sank when I saw that first comment (since disowned, I think) and I’m glad you and JC responded.
Can I apply for the first 3 day ban for explicit violence when I say I’d like to kick the current governor of FL right in the sack for his detestable comments on trans folks today? What an asshole
Raven
@Omnes Omnibus: When you say you were almost born in that beautiful car. . . ?
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: Nice to know that you are cared about there!
debbie
@WaterGirl:
It’s way at the bottom of my sidebar. I never read beyond the recent comments to see where the active commenting is. If you leave it there, fine, but maybe think about issuing an official warning or two before banning.
Frankly, maybe because I’m a visual thinker, skull fucking a kitten doesn’t seem a whole lot better than the offense above. ??♀️
Benw
@SiubhanDuinne: sounds like both you and the staff are good people. I hope the move works out for you!
zhena gogolia
@debbie: I hate that “joke”
WaterGirl
@Benw: You can even say that you would tar and feather him because that’s not serious. Or that you would shoot him to the moon. But not that you would hang him by the neck until the corpse rotted and then let the dogs eat what’s left.
It’s like art and pornography, you know it when you see it.
Raven
@Raven: Austin Healy. . .
Steve in the ATL
@SiubhanDuinne: are you staying in the same area? Maybe St. Ives or CC of the South?
Raven
@SiubhanDuinne: You movin over here? This has become a retirement destination.
WaterGirl
@debbie: Are you on a phone?
Because if you’re on a computer or a tablet, the last thing in the sidebar gets pinned and it sits there on the side no matter how many comments there are.
Spanky
@Benw:
Assumes sack not in evidence.
Omnes Omnibus
@Raven: My parents barely got to the hospital in time.
debbie
@WaterGirl:
No, I’m on my laptop, a MacBookAir. There’s no pinning in the sidebar.
Raven
@Omnes Omnibus: So cool!!!!
indycat32
@WaterGirl: I’m on a Kindle and the notice is at the very bottom of the screen, so I’d never see it, if I were so inclined to call for war crimes, which I am not.
Benw
@WaterGirl: yeah good point!
@Spanky: in the interest of science, I think we would have to keep searching for the sack by kicking :)
Ruckus
@Martin:
It is amazing, to a degree, how much power commerce has, once it’s gone world wide. Which it has. China does pretty well on it’s own, with the one caveat that they sell stuff to everyone. From medicine to computers, phones, chips, and much else, they may not control entire items, but the parts missing makes everything shut down. Many/most places on earth don’t have it all so world trade is vital. Take that away and it doesn’t take long to see the results. There really isn’t a country left now that can be totally isolated and fully functional. Some run out of most everything – I can think of at least one major country. Some run out of a lot of necessary stuff and I can’t think of one that isn’t somewhat dependent.
WaterGirl
@debbie: What do you see in the sidebar?
In order, top to bottom, it goes from:
Search this website
Balloon Juice for Ukraine thermometer
Recent Comments
Keep Balloon Juice ad-free
Balloon Juice Post
Shop Amazon
Calling All Jackals
Front-Page Twitter
Featuring
Join the Fight!
Balloon Juice Events & Notes
debbie
@WaterGirl:
Yes, and your ban note is at the very bottom, underneath the NYC meetup announcement. It doesn’t appear until you’ve scrolled down to the fifth comment.
SiubhanDuinne
@Steve in the ATL:
LOL, not hardly. I’m moving to a house in Stone Mountain, owned by a former colleague who has decamped permanently to Portugal. It’s very nice, but remote from every part of Metro ATL I’m familiar with. But for the past 2-1/2 years I’ve been living in one room in an Extended Stay in Alpharetta, after 15+ years at my townhome in Duluth. The SM house will end up costing me barely more than half what I’m paying for my one room, and it gives me a lot more room, state of the art appliances, and a lovely deck. I couldn’t say no, and once I learn my way around I expect the area will begin to feel like home.
SiubhanDuinne
@Raven:
If I ever have to move again I will give Athens serious consideration. I have academic friends who have retired there, and I’ve always liked the town and the whole vibe.
debbie
@SiubhanDuinne:
Sounds like a very sweet deal. Enjoy all that space!
Raven
@SiubhanDuinne: I’ve been to several conferences at the park and it’s always interesting to see all the African-American folks walking the paths around the monument. I think there is a gate where residents can walk in for free. You’ll be fairly close to the Dekalb Farmers Market too!
SiubhanDuinne
@Raven:
Definitely looking forward to the DK Farmers’ Market! I’m not really that interested in the mountain itself, or the carvings, or the theme park. The house I’m moving to abuts the Yellow River Forest (owned by Gwinnett County) and has some nice hiking and equestrian trails.
I had always thought Stone Mountain was DeKalb, but this chunk of it is in Gwinnett. Will make it easier to change my car tags, voter registration, etc. However, I have Hank Johnson as Congressman. Was hoping for Lucy McBath, although I have nothing against Hank.
Steeplejack
@SiubhanDuinne:
Holy shnikeys, I think you may be moving very close to my best friends in Atlanta, with whom I stay when I visit. They also are next to the Yellow River forest or park. They are in the Mountain Cove subdivision, which I think is technically Snellville.
The shopping area near them is Centerville, and there is a great Mexican restaurant nearby—El Jinete. I may be going down there in a few months, and we’ll have to finally meet up.
SiubhanDuinne
@Steeplejack:
That will be wonderful! After all this time, I can finally make good on that drink I owe you. Probably many drinks by now.
Steeplejack
@SiubhanDuinne:
I looked it up, and they are also in Hank Johnson’s district. So you’re at least that close.
I was interested to hear the back-story on your move. I knew you were moving, but I hadn’t seen any details before now. The new place sounds great.