I want to start tonight by focusing on something we’ve spent a bit of time on, but not enough: humanitarian assistance.
International organizations have failed Ukraine. The system of humanitarian aid, which worked in other conflict zones, doesn't work here. Local volunteers are helping those in need, risking life and limb. This is a message I received today from @mercycorps person on the ground: pic.twitter.com/KzKHsMky8b
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) March 22, 2022
There are concerns about some areas that are affected by the fighting and highly reliant on aid, such as Kharkiv and Sumy. Many places don't have food for more than 3-4 days. There are fears that supply chains could be disrupted if cities are besieged or shelled, like Mariupol pic.twitter.com/YoYkYX29oF
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) March 22, 2022
In the comments last night, really every night, there are questions about whether the UN could do something more. Such as send in peacekeepers to establish humanitarian corridors and undertake humanitarian relief. The answer, whether I’m giving it or someone else, is always no. Peacekeeping missions are not undertaken in active combat zones. And, unfortunately, the UN General Assembly doesn’t have the power to establish a UN response or even establish a response for an international coalition to lead. Only the UN Security Council has that authority and, of course, Russia has a permanent seat on the Security Council, which means it has veto power, which it would most surely use if an international humanitarian coalition was proposed.
At the same time, as we’ve dealt with in parts of past updates dealing with Mariupol, the largest international humanitarian aid organizations are basically not operating right now in Ukraine. The International Committee of the Red Cross only has a presence in Mariupol because the people who work at its local office there are trapped with everyone else by the Russian siege. As we’ve discussed, those local ICRC officials are doing what they can, but they have no resources to work with.
Part of the problem here is that because Russia is violating the laws of war and pretty much every other Geneva Convention in undertaking their “special operation” in Ukraine, the international humanitarian aid community is rightly afraid to send its personnel into Ukraine to do their jobs. The Russians keep scarfing up Ukrainian paramedics, Ukrainians just trying to help out other Ukrainians, and reporters. When they’re not outright killing them. As a result Ukraine is being viewed as a completely non-permissive environment and the aid organizations are unwilling to assume risk and send their personnel into it.
And here too, we’re back to the same type of problem we’ve been facing all along. Because Putin’s behavior, because his basic operational protocols and rules of engagement are so outside the norm of what Russia agreed to is acceptable conduct in war and during wartime, he’s frozen the international humanitarian assistance community. Just as his ambiguity over the use of Russia’s nuclear weapons has frozen the US and our NATO and non-NATO allies into pursuing only non-kinetic responses for fear of escalation into a nuclear exchange if not an outright nuclear war.
Putin’s actions, and the actions of Russia’s military, are the clearest indication that what is actually being conducted in Ukraine is genocide. That the goal is to not deNAZIfy Ukraine, but to de-Ukraine Ukraine. To raze everything that can be razed to the ground to the ground. To pound whatever can be turned to dust to dust. We have reports that the Russians are scarfing up Ukrainian children and taking them back to Russia. The only humanitarian corridors out of threatened, besieged, and/or occupied cities the Russians won’t attack are the ones leading to areas controlled by Russia or to Russia itself.
A strategy to provide humanitarian assistance despite Russia’s actions in Ukraine needs to be developed and implemented as soon as possible.
More after the jump!
Based on reporting, the US is planning to send the Soviet military equipment we’ve captured over the years that would be useful to the Ukrainians.
The U.S. government is sending Soviet-era air defense systems in its possession to Ukraine, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal. These systems will reportedly come from stocks of foreign materiel that elements of the U.S. military and Intelligence Community have obtained in various ways over the years for intelligence analysis and training purposes. The possibility that these so-called foreign materiel exploitation, or FME, programs could offer a useful source of additional air defense capabilities that Ukraine badly needs is exactly what that The War Zone laid out just recently.
It’s not entirely clear from The Wall Street Journal‘s story, which was published earlier today, which entity or entities within the U.S. government is managing this effort. The story indicates that an arm of the U.S. military, broadly, is managing this military assistance project, but says that Pentagon declined to comment one way or the other.
The Journal‘s piece did say that the U.S. government has already shipped a number of systems to Ukraine that had been in storage at the U.S. Army’s Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, Alabama.
While this is good news, I’m not sure of the strategic value of communicating it.
Arnold Schwarzenegger’s video address to the Russian people is being counter-programed with agitprop.
Arnold Schwarzenegger’s video appeal to the Russian people has been remarkably effective. The famed film star and former California governor posted it not only on Twitter, but also on Telegram, which is used almost exclusively by Russians. For days, Russian state media tried to ignore it altogether—but millions of views across multiple platforms forced them to address Schwarzenegger’s powerful message.
“That face is the cover page of American imperialism and colonialism,” TV host Vadim Gigin declared on state TV show Sunday Evening With Vladimir Solovievon, raging about Arnold Schwarzenegger and his video clip. “Not the caricature image of Uncle Sam, but this Schwarz, in a Hollywood production.”
Gigin seemed particularly peeved with the first comments Arnold made in his video. In an effort to dodge state media’s propensity to immediately dismiss any criticism as “Russophobia,” Arnold had opened his address with reminders of his fondness for the Russian people, with years of positive interactions long before Vladimir Putin started a full-fledged war against Ukraine.
“He, in California, will tell us, who live here… the truth?! That is their approach towards us,” Gigin fumed.
It’s not only state media pundits who are outraged with Arnold’s video.
Russian powerlifter champion Maryana Naumova, who has expressed heradmiration for the likes of notorious Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad, weighed in with her response to the message, which was published by the Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda on Monday. In her commentary, Naumova accused the American film star of “living in an alternative, imaginary reality.” Baselessly accusing the Ukrainian government of Nazism, she claimed: “The fact that Mr. Zelensky, as you say, is a Jew, did not help them. Nazism has no nationality, Nazism is not based on the word ‘German.’ And Russophobia is no better than anti-Semitism.”
Referring to Schwarzenegger’s famed feature films, Naumova proclaimed: “Do you remember how in the second part of the Terminator your hero goes back in time to prevent the creation of Skynet, which would bring the death of all mankind? Russia’s special military operation does not aim to destroy the Ukrainian people. It is aimed at the neo-Nazi Skynet, which over the years has completely subjugated Ukraine and was about to turn into an uncontrollable monster, dangerous for all of its neighbors, not only for us… Don’t side with Skynet, Terminator.”
Zakhar Prilepin, a famous Russian writer who boasted of “killing many” in the last war in Donbas, and who is wanted by Ukraine’s SBU security service on charges of “taking part in the activity of a terrorist organization,” also had harsh words for Arnold. Prilepin wrote on his Telegram channel: “In his video message, Schwarzenegger, who killed three million Russians in his films, told the Russian people how much he loves us and how wrong we are about Ukraine… This Austrian, the son of his father, who served in the SS and was wounded near Leningrad, is trying to act as the good cop.”
Prilepin complained that the United States is “pumping Ukraine full of weapons to massacre the Russians,” failing to mention that Russia is the aggressor in this war. He added: “Arnie, you are a predator and an enemy.”
I have no idea, and frankly I’m not sure anyone else really does, how effective the attempts to counter-program Schwarzenegger’s message are going to be. Putin has spent twenty years propagandizing Russians and turning Russia into a place where nothing is true, so everything and anything is possible.
Here’s today’s background briefing on Russia’s reinvasion on and war in Ukraine from the DOD:
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Good morning, everybody. (inaudible) here. As always, “senior defense official.”
Not a whole lot of changes today either. Still assess more than 1,100 missile launches; no real changes by the Russians on the ground near Kyiv; still hold them to be about 15 kilometers to the northwest, and still about 30 to the — to the east. Yeah, no — no real changes to speak to with respect to Chernihiv, to — to Kharkiv.
We had talked about this town, Izyum, in the east south of Kharkiv, and as you might remember, we were talking about the Russians coming down out of Kharkiv towards Izyum, which lies a little bit to the southeast of Kharkiv. With what we believe to be the Russian attempt to sort of cut off the joint forces operations area, the — basically, the — the — the Donbas. And that’s one reason, not the only reason, but one reason why we — we think they’re — they’re so interested in Mariupol, so they can come up from the north and then down from the — I’m sorry — come up from the south, down from the north from Izyum. And — and today, you know, we had talked about the — assessing that the Russians had — had — had taken Izyum, and what we’re seeing today is — is some significant fighting there by the Ukrainians in an effort to take it back. So I just thought I’d — I’d note that.
The — in — in — down in the south, you know, now that we’re talking about Mariupol, no — no real changes from yesterday to talk about with the exception of a couple of things. Obviously — and again, you guys are seeing this the same we are — lots of continued bombardment, artillery and long-range fires in the Mariupol. What we observed over the last 24 hours is that the Russians have likely been firing into the city from the sea, from the Sea of Azov, so just to the south of Mariupol. We assess that they’ve got about — about five to six ships in the Sea of Azov. Actually, I would count that as — I’d — I’d say more like seven, and — and we think some of them, at least the surface combatants — or at least some of the surface combatants have been — have been shelling into Mariupol, and that — that wasn’t the case yesterday. Now, not all of those seven ships are surface combatants. We think they’ve got a minesweeper in there and a couple of LSTs, but — but I did want to note that that is a — a — a bit of a change from — from — from yesterday.
But obviously, we continue to observe a — a — a number of Russian forces inside the city. We think at least some of them are — are separatist forces that came from the Donbas. And again, the Ukrainians are — are fighting very, very hard from — to — to keep Mariupol from — from — from falling.
No changes in — in the airspace to speak of. I already talked about the maritime environment, and I know many of you will probably ask about the Black Sea. No real changes from yesterday. We did not observe shelling of Odesa from — from the Black Sea over the last 24 hours, but we still assess that they have several warships that are — that are in the northern Black Sea. Again, it’s — like all maritime environment it — it — it changes, so I — I can’t say with certainty that it’s the same number of ships or that they’re in the same locations they were yesterday, but we still assess — we still see that — that naval activity in the northern Black Sea and no — and no sense, no indication that there is an imminent amphibious assault on or near Odesa. And again, we did not observe, at least from the navy side, we did not observe a — shelling over the last 24 hours.
Some of you are going to ask me about combat power, assess combat power, so I — I would say today’s the first day that we’ve assessed the — and again, this is an assessment, an assessment, and I want to be careful that I — I — I quantify — I qualify that, but we have assessed that for the first time that the Russians may be slightly below a 90 percent level of assessed available combat power. Again, let me remind, that is of — that is of the combat power that they assembled in Belarus and in the western part of their country prior to the invasion. It is not an assessment of all Russian military power. But we assess that for the first time, they may be just a little bit below 90 percent on that.
And no — no indications, no tangible indications of reinforcements being brought in from elsewhere in the country, no tangible indications of foreign fighters that have flown into the country. We do assess the Wagner Group is active in Ukraine. We think that that activity is largely in the Donbas area, but no indication that they’ve, you know, moved in foreign fighters from Syria or elsewhere.
And on resupply, again, no tangible indications that they are making an — an effort to resupply from outside the — the theater there, that — that they’re pulling in from elsewhere around the — around Russia. But we do continue to see indications that they are having these discussions, and that they are making those kinds of plan both in terms of resupply, and also reinforcement. It’s just that we haven’t seen that actually been — taking — take — take place.
Q: Got it. And then with the Ukrainian repulse of other Russian forces, have you assessed that anything has changed tactically with — with the Ukrainians or is this sort of the same hit-and-run attacks that you’ve talked about previously?
Yes, again, we don’t — we wouldn’t — we wouldn’t assess that there has been any major changes to their operating concepts. Again, I want to be careful here because we’re not — you know, we’re not in the operational planning cycle with these guys, and they should speak for themselves.
But we do continue to see them defend in a very nimble, agile way. You called it hit-and-run, I mean, there is certainly some of that still going on. But, again, what we’re — what we’re starting to see are indications that they are — they are — are now able and willing to take back territory that the — that the Russians have taken.
Again, I — it’s indications and it will be difficult for us to say that this marks, you know, some sort of major muscle movement member by the Ukrainian military. It’s clearly notable. Whether this is a part of some sort of larger operational plan, we can’t say for sure.
The rest of the Q&A is at the link. But it appears that the US assessment is that the Ukrainians are, where necessary, attempting to push the Russians out. Specifically in Izium.
Here’s a link to Amnesty International’s report on what the Russian’s have done in Izium and to its residents.
On 24 February, the Russian armed forces began an open invasion of Ukraine, which Amnesty International considers an act of aggression. On 3 March 2022, Ukraine and Russia first agreed to establish humanitarian corridors for civilian evacuation, however implementation has been very limited. Moreover, several Ukrainian cities and towns are living in conditions approximating a siege, with the possibility of civilians departing and humanitarian aid delivery severely restricted due to virtually perpetual shelling.
One situation emblematic of the plight of civilians living under siege-like conditions is that of Izium, a small town with population of around 56,000 people in Kharkiv Region in eastern Ukraine. Izium has not made it into the main news headlines, yet for over two weeks the town has been on the edge of a humanitarian catastrophe.
The first reports of the Russian military attacks on the town of Izium appeared on 28 February 2022, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Videos and photographs taken by the locals and verified by Amnesty International’s Crisis Evidence Lab demonstrate residential buildings damaged by Russian attacks. At night on 3 March, as a result of mass strikes by the Russian armed forces, residential areas in Ukrayinska, Proletarska, Soborna, Dontsia, Zakharzhevskoho, Heroiv Chornobyltsiv, and Staroposhtova streets were damaged, as well as the building of the Izium district police precinct.
Eight civilians were killed, including at least two children, according to media reports.2 Verified footage shows extensive damage to buildings along Soborna street, including a bank, residential apartments, and shops. The central town hospital was also hit by a strike and, as confirmed by verified video, one wing was significantly damaged. At the moment of the attack, the sick and the wounded were in the basement, according to the deputy Izium town Mayor, Volodymyr Matsokin.3 Most of the residential areas of the town were cut off from electricity, gas, heating, and mobile communication as a result of attacks.
Intense strikes restricted or often prevented the evacuation of civilians or delivery of humanitarian assistance. Evacuees reported that most of the shops were destroyed or had to close down. According to Oleg Synegubov, Head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, in early March Russian troops tried to enter the town, but they could not take over and continued to keep Izium effectively under siege.4 On 9 March, due to intense attacks, the authorities managed to evacuate only 250 persons, instead of the planned 5,000.5 On 10 March, another group of up to 2,000 people were evacuated.6 Along with local authorities, local volunteers and activists used private cars to evacuate civilians, taking immense risk themselves. They operate without adequate funding, security arrangements or psychological support.
Despite evacuation efforts, many local residents, including children, older people and people with disabilities, remain in the basements and shelters of Izium. Their living conditions are dire, their food and water supplies are running out or have already been exhausted. Izium urgently needs a humanitarian corridor to enable safe evacuation of civilians wishing to leave, and delivery of humanitarian
1 Office Of the Prosecutor General Of Ukraine, “Авіаційний обстріл міста ізюм на харківщині – розпочаті кримінальні провадження”, Official Telegram Channel, 3 March
2022, Available At Https://T.Me/Pgo_Gov_Ua/3025.
2 “В ізюмі кількість жертв обстрілу зросла до восьми”, ukrinform, 3 march 2022, available at https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3418653-v-izumi-kilkist-zertv-obstrilu-
zrosla-do-vosmi.html
3 Volodymyr Matsokin, Post on Facebook, 8 March 2022, available at https://www.facebook.com/volodymyr.matsokin/posts/7675042065901336.
4 Oleg Synegubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, on Facebook, 8 March 2022, available at
https://www.facebook.com/100044020894667/videos/4898838953497269/
5 Denys Karlovskyi, “З ізюма не змогли евакуювали 5 тисяч мешканців через сильні обстріли окупантів”, Ukrayinska Pravda, 9 March 2022, available at
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/9/7329827/
6 Telegram channel Operatyvnyi ZSU (оперативний ЗСУ), with reference to Oleg Synegubov, head of Kharkiv regional state administration, 10 march 2022, available at
https://t.me/operativnozsu/12586.
Much, much more at the link.
In addition to the humanitarian disaster unfolding because of Russian military action in Izium, as the senior DOD official stated at today’s backgrounder, Izium is a key theater strategic objective for the Russians. If they can take it and hold it, then it allows them to both increase pressure on Mariupol and eventually bring pressure on Odesa. Which would further Putin’s theater strategic objective of establishing a land bridge or corridor all along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov coasts thereby cutting Ukraine completely off from their ports.
The Russians are still targeting food warehouses. Which, along with the five cargo ships containing grain they stole from the port in Berdyansk the other day, is also an indicator that this is genocide. That the intention is to terrorize the Ukrainians by destroying food supplies and starving them out.
Here’s some video from Mariupol:
In Mariupol, Azov Battalion destroyed 4 Russian tanks and several units of enemy armored fighting vehicles.
Today, the Ukrainian military also shot down one occupiers' plane which was destroying Mariupol in recent weeks pic.twitter.com/I8SgEkrH9l
— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) March 22, 2022
Also regarding Mariupol:
Russian Gen Mikhail Mizintsev, whose success as the butcher of Syria brought him to Mariupol, which he is pounding into oblivion. @KseniaSvetlova reports that he, personally, ordered the bombings of the maternity hospital, the theater & residential buildings in the besieged city. https://t.co/tvPHAFyyYm
— Noga Tarnopolsky (@NTarnopolsky) March 22, 2022
Other than this and scattered reporting of people trying to escape the Russian siege, there’s not much reporting for obvious reasons.
This is an interesting thread from a Ukrainian sociologist on why the accusations of bias against Ukrainian journalists, subject matter experts, and government officials is wrong and basically ignores first person eye witness accounts and experiences. It also discounts these experiences and is chauvinistic towards the Ukrainians. I very much agree with his argument, so there’s my bias.
Another surprising miscalculation. I often see that Ukrainians (officials, media, scholars, NGO) are often perceived and treated exclusively as eye witnesses, a biased part of the conflict. This, their data, ideas and narratives are immediately disregard…1/15
— Tymofii Brik (@brik_t) March 22, 2022
Which is weird, because this underlying assumption is only a part of the story. People working in social science know it very well. We all are biases and not neutral, but we have protocols and tools to address these biases and control for them. The biggest problem here is… 2/15
That Ukrainians have a significant expertise, and people throw it away because they don’t know how to identify and control biases. This is not efficient. Examples of expertise are: 3/15
This is not the first Russian invasion to Ukraine, there are many diplomats (under 2 different presidents) who participated in negotiasions with Russians. Local journalists covered it, local think-tanks worked on strategies etc. 4/15
Dozens of NGO have worked with displaced people. They also worked with people who were imprisoned and tortured in Luhansk and Donetsk, they collected data on people who disappeared or died. 5/15
Ukraine developed formal democratic institutions that do not exist in many post-soviet countries. Perhaps we know a thing or two about democratic development 6/15
Ukraine was a testing ground for Russian cyber and information warfare since 2015. We know their playbook and have developed some strategies. 7/15
We have a normal war economy. With many challenges of course, but the parliament is able to vote, central bank is working, trains are running, local governments function, groceries are open etc. 8/15
Our military has expertise of dealing with Russians. They saw a “safe corridor” in Ilovaisk in 2014. They know the mentality and playbooks of Russian soldiers. 9/15
Most importantly, Ukrainians have developed a fine tuned bullshit detector to see Russia for what it is. We don’t take their words at face value and have many tools to verify their true intentions. We know their language, we know their informal institutions 10/15
For us, words like “common Russians” or “not all Russians are the same” have very tangible meaning. Our survival depends on our ability to read signals and identify honest intentions. We have developed many informal rules and “red flags” . That is why ukrainians were 11/15
cautious about that “brave Russian journalist”. The thing is she also recorded a message, which was just a compilation of imperialistic cliches about “brethren nations”. For us this is a very strong “red flag”, while western partners do not even look there 12/15
Everyday I hear patronizing words “you just have to start talking, you have to see that not all Russians are the same, Dostoevsky! Tolstoy!” But they are preaching to the choir. We now this. We talked, and we developed strategies to analyze their words. The point is 13/15
Western partners must realize that they don’t have expertise in many domains where they patronize. Instead they have to update their priors and take our protocols seriously. We are open to teach a workshop or run a summer school 14/15
Ukr voices cannot be dismissed on the premise that they are biased. Democratic institutions have many formal rules to accommodate people with different opinions. It is 100% possible to include non-neutral voices. Especially if they have expertise which others don’t 15/15
Typos typos typos…sorry about that.
President Zelenskyy is scheduled to address the NATO senior leaders summit on Thursday. As I’m sure everyone has noted, he regularly addresses different countries legislatures to both update them and appeal for assistance. He also, when appropriate, delivers a heaping, helping of shame. Here’s the transcript from his address to the Knesset in Israel last Sunday. Where he let them have it with both barrels, repeatedly reloaded, and let them have it again and again. As you can imagine, it upset all the usual suspects in Israel.
Dear Mr. Speaker, members of the Knesset.
Dear Prime Minister Bennett, thank you very much for your support.
Dear members of the Government of the State of Israel, all attendees, guests, people of Israel!
The Ukrainian and Jewish communities have always been and, I am sure, will be very intertwined, very close. They will always live side by side. And they will feel both joy and pain together.
That is why I want to remind you of the words of a great woman from Kyiv, whom you know very well. The words of Golda Meir. They are very famous, everyone has heard of them. Apparently, every Jew. Many, many Ukrainians as well. And certainly no less Russians. “We intend to remain alive. Our neighbors want to see us dead. This is not a question that leaves much room for compromise.”
I don’t need to convince you how intertwined our stories are. Stories of Ukrainians and Jews. In the past, and now, in this terrible time. We are in different countries and in completely different conditions. But the threat is the same: for both us and you – the total destruction of the people, state, culture. And even of the names: Ukraine, Israel.
I want you to feel it all. I want you to think about this date. About February 24. About the beginning of this invasion. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. February 24 – this day has twice gone down in history. And both times – as a tragedy. A tragedy for Ukrainians, for Jews, for Europe, for the world.
On February 24, 1920, the National Socialist Workers’ Party of Germany (NSDAP) was founded. A party that took millions of lives. Destroyed entire countries. Tried to kill nations.
One hundred two years later, on February 24, a criminal order was issued to launch a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. The invasion, which has claimed thousands of lives, has left millions homeless. Made them exiles. On their land and in neighboring countries. In Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Germany, the Czech Republic, the Baltic States and dozens of different countries.
Our people are now scattered around the world. They are looking for security. They are looking for a way to stay in peace. As you once searched.
This Russian invasion of Ukraine is not just a military operation, as Moscow claims. This is a large-scale and treacherous war aimed at destroying our people. Destroying our children, our families. Our state. Our cities. Our communities. Our culture. And everything that makes Ukrainians Ukrainians. Everything that Russian troops are now destroying. Deliberately. In front of the whole world.
That is why I have the right to this parallel and to this comparison. Our history and your history. Our war for our survival and World War II.
Listen to what the Kremlin says. Just listen! There are even terms that sounded then. And this is a tragedy. When the Nazi party raided Europe and wanted to destroy everything. Destroy everyone. Wanted to conquer the nations. And leave nothing from us, nothing from you. Even the name and the trace. They called it “the final solution to the Jewish issue”. You remember that. And I’m sure you will never forget!
But listen to what is sounding now in Moscow. Hear how these words are said again: “Final solution”. But already in relation, so to speak, to us, to the “Ukrainian issue”.
It sounded openly. This is a tragedy. Once again, it was said at a meeting in Moscow. It is available on official websites. This was quoted in the state media of Russia. Moscow says so: without the war against us, they would not be able to ensure a “final solution” allegedly for their own security. Just like it was said 80 years ago.
People of Israel!
You saw Russian missiles hit Kyiv, Babyn Yar. You know what kind of land it is. More than 100,000 Holocaust victims are buried there. There are ancient Kyiv cemeteries. There is a Jewish cemetery. Russian missiles hit there.
People of Israel!
On the first day of this war, Russian projectiles hit our city of Uman. A city visited by tens of thousands of Israelis every year. For a pilgrimage to the tomb of Nachman of Breslov. What will be left of all such places in Ukraine after this terrible war?
I am sure that every word of my address echoes with pain in your hearts. Because you feel what I’m talking about. But can you explain why we still turn to the whole world, to many countries for help? We ask you for help… Even for basic visas…
What is it? Indifference? Premeditation? Or mediation without choosing a party? I will leave you a choice of answer to this question. And I will note only one thing – indifference kills. Premeditation is often erroneous. And mediation can be between states, not between good and evil.
Everyone in Israel knows that your missile defense is the best. It is powerful. Everyone knows that your weapon is strong. Everyone knows you’re doing great. You know how to defend your state interests, the interests of your people. And you can definitely help us protect our lives, the lives of Ukrainians, the lives of Ukrainian Jews.
One can keep asking why we can’t get weapons from you. Or why Israel has not imposed strong sanctions against Russia. Why it doesn’t put pressure on Russian business. But it is up to you, dear brothers and sisters, to choose the answer. And you will have to live with this answer, people of Israel.
Ukrainians have made their choice. Eighty years ago. They rescued Jews. That is why the Righteous Among the Nations are among us.
People of Israel, now you have such a choice.
Thank you!
Thank you for everything.
This was the only actual appropriate Israeli response to President Zelenskyy’s address, short of actually doing something useful. It was made by Foreign Minister and Prime Minister in waiting Yair Lapid, which makes sense given what we know of Lapid’s character.
There are no words: Israeli FM Yair Lapid, 58, whose father Yosef survived the Holocaust in Hungary, refuses to critique Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, 44, whose grandfather Semyon fought the Nazis and lost his father & three brothers to the Holocaust. https://t.co/Demw5XMDwS
— Noga Tarnopolsky (@NTarnopolsky) March 21, 2022
Part of the reason that President Zelenskyy’s remarks struck discordant notes with the Israelis, aside from the fact that he properly shamed them and they don’t like having that done to them, is that Zelenskyy talks about the Holocaust as someone who grew up and was initially educated in the Soviet education system and its immediate successor in eastern Ukraine after the Soviet Union fell. As I’ve repeatedly noted, the Soviet Union reimagined World War II for its own internal propaganda purposes. They turned it into The Great Patriotic War where the Soviets were the NAZIs’ real targets and victims, the Jews who were designated by Stalin as rootless cosmopolitans and globalists (sound familiar?) aided and abetted the NAZIs, and the US and the other allies helped a little bit. But if it wasn’t for Russia winning the whole damn thing for the world, the NAZIs would have won. It also, of course, completely ignores Stalin’s alliance with Hitler in the 1930s. So when Zelenskyy talks about the Holocaust and World War II, even though he knows as someone who is Jewish what it was really about, his education in this alternate history still frames and undergirds his remarks. This sounds odd to Israeli ears. And since the Israelis also don’t like anyone else invoking the Holocaust as a justification for action, that pissed them off too!
Here’s an interesting thread by someone under 30 that gets at the alternative history of World War II taught by the Soviets and then by Russian and the post Soviet states after the fall of the Soviet Union (don’t freak, there is no tweet #2, she misnumbered them, the tweet numbered as 3 is actually tweet number 2):
?I lived in Moscow between ages 5-8 and completed 1st grade in a Russian public school.
Some things I remember & was taught, much to the horror of my parents – a thread to illustrate the kind of “mundane militarism” environment present in Russia some 15+ years ago. (1/?)
— Kvitka Perehinets ?? (@kvitkanadiia) March 19, 2022
Looking back at pictures of me starting school, you would’ve thought they were taken pre-USSR collapse. My school had a plaque on it commemorating the memory of the alumni-Heroes of the Soviet Union. Hammer and sickles casually featured in most school posters in hallways. (3/?)
Aged 6, I was taught that World War 2 was actually the “Great Patriotic War”, and it started in 1941, not 1939 – a useful omission of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. To this day, it’s widely accepted the war started in 1941. (4/?)
On May 9, “Victory Day”, children in first grade (my grade then) were split into pairs and had to take turns standing side by side next to a bigger plaque with names of all alumni-Red Army soldiers with a miniature version of the eternal flame lit between them. (5/?)
Turns lasted 15 mins each, and there was a schedule of shifts during classes and breaks. We were told we had to stand in silence and “think about the sacrifices they made”. The infamous ribbon of St George was also a must. I so wish I was making this up. (6/?)
The pinnacle of all this was how it made an impression on me. My parents told me they made the unequivocal decision to leave Moscow immediately after I came home from school and told my mum that Russia is the world’s greatest country and the liberator of Europe. (7/?)
Little did I know that in my home, Ukraine, one occupation was simply replaced by another in 1945. Little did I know my grandfather’s family, members of the Ukrainian intelligentsia, had been sent away to the Russian Far East after NKVD came to their home one night. (8/?)
To think that the scenes from Luzhniki Stadium yesterday are an incredible one-off show of support and a recent development is foolish. This cult of Russian imperialism has always been present. Now, in 2014, in 2008, all the years in between and before. (9/?)
What we’re seeing is a maniacal personification of the nostalgia for Russia’s perceived historical “greatness”. As always, at the expense of other people’s lives and rights. At the expense of Ukraine, the Baltics, Moldova, Georgia, and so many others. (10/10)
Your daily bayraktar:
The Ukrainian Bayraktar long-endurance unmanned combat aerial vehicle destroys Russian invaders’ tanks in Chornobaivka near Kherson, Ukraine #KhersonisUkraine #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineResistance #UkraineWillWin #UkraineArmedForces #StandWithUkraine️ #UkraineUnderAttack pic.twitter.com/WDiEbxyj3r
— Ua Position (@UaPosition) March 23, 2022
And your other daily Bayraktar!
Meet Bayraktar – this little puppy was rescued and adopted by my cousin few days ago
What a funny joyful cute creation! pic.twitter.com/NlZPEyEejG— Xenta (@Xenta777) March 15, 2022
Whose the cutest little Bayraktar? You are!!!!
We’ll finish with this:
This is for the ones who stood their ground…
Odessa, Ukraine. #SlavaUkraini ?? pic.twitter.com/N9iT2EoeH7— Bon Jovi (@BonJovi) March 22, 2022
Open thread!
Fair Economist
Great resources, again.
Ian Ricksecker is reporting that Poland, along with Czechia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Denmark, is planning a military force to send to Ukraine to provide and secure humanitarian aid. Supposedly this will be discussed at the imminent NATO meeting and his sources believe the rest of NATO will approve.
CCL
Thank you, Adam.
Ksmiami
Just positing that maybe we should start acting insane to Russia so they stop this madness out of fear we will retaliate… I’m starting to think that doing everything out of fear of Putin isn’t a solid strategy and maybe a cowboy approach could get us out of this box.
sanjeevs
Thanks Adam
Big if true etc
(1) Sergej Sumlenny on Twitter: “According to unconfirmed but realistic looking reports, Russian troops have got surrounded in Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel area near Kyiv, cut from supplies. If true – the biggest defeat of a Russian army until now, and Ukraine needs to start worrying about too many POWs. https://t.co/8t10oZIk7d” / Twitter
rikyrah
Thank you, Silverman
LivinginExile
One would think that the fucking Israelis could look at Mariupol and see the Warsaw Ghetto.
Mallard Filmore
YouTube:
title: “Russian soldier complains troops ‘have frostbite’ and low morale in intercepted call”
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2mlqC-c6Cw
Kattails
Did this get mentioned by someone previously? The rail lines out of Belorussia into Ukraine seem to have suffered sudden, significant operating “problems” ahem cough cough.
@Fair Economist: that would be an enormous relief if it happens. All power to them.
Thank you, Adam, for your considerable work on this series, and also to the many thoughtful and knowledgeable commenters.
Ksmiami
@LivinginExile: I’m more than ready for the US to cut off funding for Israel. They have their own motivations, they can be self reliant..
LivinginExile
@Ksmiami: Amen
Sebastian
Schwarzenegger’s message was a photon torpedo right through the ventilation shaft. You only get Flak above the target!
Omnes Omnibus
@Kattails: And Baud.
Adam L Silverman
@Fair Economist: I’m not surprised in the least.
Adam L Silverman
@CCL: You’re welcome.
Sebastian
@Mallard Filmore:
Good. This will be over soon then,
Omnes Omnibus
@Fair Economist: If this is an effective way to thread the needle, that would be great.
marcopolo
@sanjeevs: Yeah, I too have seen several reports about this counter offensive occurring west/northwest of Kyiv, though nothing new for the past 4-6 hours. The video I saw attached to this tweet was of a force of muslim Chechen UA foreign legion fighters in a firefight with one guy repeatedly (like 4x) standing up at the top of a hillside, firing an rpg, running back a few yards, reloading, running back up & firing it again. All I’m thinking is I would be lying prone on the ground with the amount of firing that I could hear. Will see if I can find that clip.
As for the Ukrainians (including kids) forcibly removed to Russian territory, while I am sure to a certain point that is de-Ukrainianing activity is it also related to trying to shore up the declining population numbers for white ethnic Russians (sorry not sure what the correct demographic term is) in Russia. I keep reading about how the only groups in Russia with growing pops are the ethnic groups to the south and east of Russia while the core “historic” white Russian pop demographic is stagnant/declining.
Okay off to search for a tweet.
Jay
By circuitous route, Slava got me a text today. His CAT got to XXXXXXX and deployed. They used facines to cross through “the green”, with local farmers pulling them up after they passed. They didn’t lose anybody and are pretty sure their passage was unobserved. UATDG’s screened their flanks.
Sebastian
Thank you Adam for the yeoman’s work. Every day.
I know you are doing your duty, sir. May God bless you.
Adam L Silverman
@sanjeevs: I saw that, but chose not to include it because I want to see what kind of confirmation is forthcoming.
Ksmiami
@LivinginExile: worst ally ever…
Adam L Silverman
@rikyrah: De nada!
Chetan Murthy
@Ksmiami: [Saudi Arabia raises its hand]
Adam L Silverman
@Sebastian: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Kattails: You’re welcome too.
Lyrebird
First, thanks Adam, your work here is a huge contribution.
@Omnes Omnibus: Not sure if you got to see my thanks yesterday because I was late returning to the thread, so if not, thanks! (There were more words in the earlier version, fwiw.)
Hoping the Polish coalition forces can turn the tide for the civilians and that the gains NW of Kyiv hold and expand.
marcopolo
Okay here is one report from a journalist in Kyiv about the fighting to the NW
says he has 5 confirmations of the activity including one person on the ground.
And here is the short vid of the actual fighting
Which was part of this post on DailyKos
I have been pretty impressed by the updates there which I didn’t know were happening until I think yesterday.
Edited to add thanks to Adam & all the other folks who have been adding comments/info here.
Gvg
Funny, this grim news about the lack of humanitarian aid actually seems to have some good news in it. I already knew they couldn’t be getting much aid in under these conditions so the news they ARe actually getting some supplies and some food by rail is news to me and good.
I am surprised that it is possible in other conflicts. I assumed wars are always this bad or nearly.
We have been hearing about imminent starvation for weeks now, both sides. I bet some already have died. There is not an easy solution. Wish Putin would starve.
Sebastian
I dunno, folks. I don’t think this is going too well for Vova.
Another Scott
From KyivIndependent.com news feed:
It’s good that they’re setting this up. I hope that NGOs are working with them as appropriate, for those who are unable to directly send financial support to a foreign government.
Thanks for keeping us informed daily, Adam. It’s appreciated.
Cheers,
Scott.
Kelly
Update on Sergey Korenev from Portland, OR. Adam posted the story of him returning to Ukraine to evacuate his mother. He’s brought her to the border!
https://twitter.com/MrOlmos/status/1506426305620848644
Omnes Omnibus
On a related topic brought back to mind by the new note in the sidebar: I really cannot believe that people have had to argue in favor of the Geneva Conventions and against war crimes on the this site. I really thought that our side had decided these issues 80 years ago. Yes, sometimes we have to fight with one hand tied behind our backs, but that’s because we are supposed to be the good guys. I have seldom been so pissed off at some of my fellow commenters. This could be a lot longer but just typing about it is getting me all angried up again so I will just leave it here.
marcopolo
Last but not least before I go to bed this fun news. I am assuming that this report of the Russian tanker who surrendered himself AND his tank today (or maybe yesterday) is true.
Apparently the text messages that the Ukrainian psyops folks are sending Russian troops can work. According to this story, this deserter will get paid $10K after the war is over as a bounty for the tank.
In the meantime, he’ll be put up at a place with a clean bed, meals, and a working shower.
Adam L Silverman
@Kelly: Excellent news!
CaseyL
@sanjeevs:
@marcopolo:
Thank you both! I saw a headline on a news site that Ukraine forces were mounting a counteroffensive in “a Kyiv suburb,” which ounded surreal, like a war between competing shopping malls. Your reports make a lot more sense!
Jay
Thank you Adam.
Jay
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wali-alive-despite-russian-disinformation-1.6393191
Margaret
Adam, thank you for another outstanding post. I don’t have a military background, so your posts and many of the comments have been invaluable in helping me to understand the big picture.
Also, I hope you’re starting to feel better.
Feathers
Adam, thanks again for all of this.
The world figure skating championships are this weekend in France. Russia has been kicked out, also Beloruss. This includes the coaches, judges, and officials. The rest of the skating world is happy, because, as the Olympics showed, they’ve been running a state sponsored doping program and completely corrupted the judging system by taking advantage of joint citizenship with former republics to flood the judging panels with Russian judges. Skating in Russia is paid for in sponsorship, Rostlecom, Gazprom, and several other sanctioned organizations. Apparently they cut the sports programs off immediately. Skaters and coaches aren’t being paid. There is o money for ice time. People are trying to figure out how to get out to work elsewhere. Very curious to see if they will be welcome in the US. Sounds like rinks are interested, but I’ll be intrigued to see if the State Department will grant anybody visas, especially with the ongoing doping investigation. The Russian internal investigation into the Valieva case isn’t due until August and WADA and the IOC will act after reviewing this report. The Chinese won’t be at Worlds either. They are saying it is because of injuries and scheduled surgeries, but the truth is, France doesn’t recognize the Chinese Covid vaccine as valid
But, good news. Several members of the Ukrainian team have been training in Poland and will be competing! There is something planned to support them, but it’s not public what it will be.
Apologies if this doesn’t belong here. There is this weird situation where Russia deserved to be kicked out because of doping, but the ISU and IOC are too corrupt to follow up on that. But… now there’s the war, so Russia is kicked out over that, and people are really, really happy about it. The close ties between figure skating, the Kremlin and the oligarchs is fascinating. Eve
Dan B
There are stories of trans women being told they are men by Ukrainian guards at the border and being sent back because men cannot leave. This is despite what Russians would do to them. And in addition to not enough medicines there are no hormones and people get ill if they stop. Meanwhile young gay guys are enlisting because Ukraine is far better for their lives than Russia. I’m in fear for Russian LGBTQ+ people if Russia loses*.
*”when” works.
coin operated
@sanjeevs:
I suck at linking to other comments. Martin provided some context around this tweet in the Jen Psaki thread earlier today. Comment #45.
Dan B
The NYT had an interview of a young Ukrainian pilot. They are doing well, despite losses. Russians are running 200 sorties a day while Ukrainians are running 10. The Ukrainians are knocking the Russians out of the skies but are wearing out the aircraft because they subject them to extreme, and effective, maneuvers. They will run out of planes before pilots.
Omnes Omnibus
@Dan B: Good pilots take thousands of hours of training that costs millions. Planes can and will be replaced. Pilots can’t. Not in time.
coin operated
@Feathers:
The rampant doping I knew about, but this was my first time hearing about how the judging panels were being rigged. Thanks.
Dan B
Adam;
Deepest gratitude!
You are a treasure!!
Ishiyama
@Omnes Omnibus:
I think a big part of the problem is that many people are not all that familiar with the actual contents of the Conventions. How much war fantasy/fiction (movies, novels, games) leaves that sort of consideration aside?
Nettoyeur
@sanjeevs: POWs face real problems when their armies have been engaged in genocidal killing, raping and looting. If they were seen doing this, they are likely to be dealt with summarily. UKR has already announced that artillery troops will not be treated gently.
coin operated
I remember seeing General Mizintsev’s picture a few days ago and having the hair on the back of my neck stand up. One of those instinctive responses I get around certain people, and they always turn out to be absolute shitstains. Even before reading about his exploits in Syria, I knew he was evil.
sanjeevs
@coin operated: Thanks I’ll have a look
Omnes Omnibus
@Ishiyama: While what you say is probably true, it does not make me feel any better.
Ksmiami
@Chetan Murthy: eh I don’t count SA because they r a drug (oil) pusher and I don’t expect that we share values… Israel should fucking know better and do better. Sick of the “special relationship”…where we get treated like a sucker
Martin
DOD confirmed indications of a counteroffensive NW of Kyiv, but didn’t have anything concrete to say.
Oryx is reporting a LOT of lost Russian vehicles in the last day. 8 tanks, 19 armored personnel carriers/fighting vehicles, a bunch of artillery from towed howitzers to self-propelled guns. It had been a pretty steady number of vehicles each day, but this is a big uptick. They were asked if it’s just them clearing a backlog, and some is, but they said it’s definitely increasing pace.
Not sure if that indicates a counteroffensive, or what, but something has changed.
Ksmiami
@coin operated: same… launch a missile at his house
sanjeevs
@Kattails: There were reports of multiple explosions in Belorus week ago. I wonder if that was the railway sabotage.
OSINTdefender on Twitter: “Multiple Sounds of Explosions are being reported in Cities across Belarus, including the Capital City of Minsk, there have been no indications about what could be be occurring.” / Twitter
Kattails
@Omnes Omnibus: well. Baud is a singularity, possibly in the space/time continuum, although that needs further study.
Medicine Man
@coin operated: Yup, that dude has a “war criminal” look. Like a Russian version of Milosevic.
Adam L Silverman
@Feathers: Definitely belongs here. If you want to really understand this stuff, Slava Malamud has done a number of posts and threads on it.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: is this a real war.. in the sense that there is a Cassus Belli? Or is it just a criminal erasure of a country and it’s people in which case all the normal rules of engagement are off? I’m serious here. And I believe that the Geneva Conventions are a baseline of conduct but even as Adam says, the regular humanitarian operations can’t run because Putin’s invasion isn’t war.
Adam L Silverman
@Dan B: Thanks. You are most welcome.
Chetan Murthy
@Ksmiami:
This is a war just like WWII was: there was no casus belli there either, other than Hitler saying “nice country you have there, I think I’ll take it”. But that doesn’t stop the laws of war from applying. And sure, “victor’s justice” and “the fog of war” and all. But Omnes has a point, and I’ve been guilty too.
Adam L Silverman
@Ksmiami: It is most definitely a war.
Ksmiami
@Chetan Murthy: I’m not saying the Ukrainians should torture or kill POWs but self defense through eliminating the NCOs in the field is justified
Shalimar
@Ksmiami: The Geneva Conventions are statements of the minimum behavior to be considered civilized, humane and moral. If you’re not, then you’re just as evil as your enemy.
Martin
@sanjeevs: Could be. Apparently signals, switches and tracks have all been affected. But it seems like the railway disruptions were pretty well coordinated across railway workers. I wouldn’t be shocked to learn that there were other acts of sabotage taking place.
Chetan Murthy
@Ksmiami: Look: I also have strong feelings about RU artillerymen, and what ought to be done to captured RU artillerymen. But there’s the law of war, and it says that if such an artilleryman surrenders, then he’s treated as a POW.
Other commenters have pointed out that when an enemy unit fights until literally every bullet is expended and then surrenders, the capturing side might not be so …. charitable towards them. This doesn’t mean that it’s lawful: just that soldiers also are human. It’s still unlawful to summarily execute POWs.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami: From what I have said already, I think you can guess my answer.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: warfare in the oldest sense; yes, attackers would wipe out villages and then loot, burn, kill, bring back slaves etc… but through the prism of 21st century war, it looks like a pointless snuff exercise.
Ksmiami
@Shalimar: I agree with the Geneva Conventions and being the better people esp when it comes to future persecutions and treaties etc… I just view Putin’s entire operation as one large and unjustified criminal act
CaseyL
If the Geneva Convention, and general rules of ethics, aren’t sufficient reason to treat enemy soldiers with a modicum of humanity, there are also practical reasons:
If you want to encourage more enemy soldiers to surrender, you don’t shoot the ones who do surrender.
If you want to encourage more enemy soldiers to desert, you don’t shoot the ones who do desert.
Kattails
@Martin: Apparently the head of Ukraine railroads has publicly thanked the Belorussians for their help. A comment I saw noted that Belarus is the locus for trains from Russia changing gauge to match, like, everybody else. And yes, switches and so on have been sabotaged. Heh.
Someone else had noted Sherman’s tearing up the confederate rails, and then using the ties to heat the rails enough to bend them, making it impossible to just put them back in place. They were called “Sherman’s neckties”.
Then the question was raised, there’s not a lot of support for Putin’s puppet government in that country, are they seeing a chance to make some major political changes of their own? That would be interesting.
Martin
So, I understand how Ukranians would want a bit of retribution against those who have done this to them, but Ukraine wants to be friends with the west, and has applied to join the EU. The EU doesn’t want war criminals in their organization. Neither does NATO. And it’ll be politically difficult to give aid to rebuild. There’s no upside to doing it, and it doesn’t solve the underlying problem.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy:
You also have remember that those artillery units can’t see what they are firing at. They are getting calls for fire from front observers or are firing preset missions decreed by those above them. The gunners who fired on the children’s hospital may not have known what it was. I guarantee that the gun crews themselves had absolutely no idea where those rounds were going. The fire direction center (or Russian equivalent) may or may not have. The people who ordered the fire mission certainly did. When judging what they did, there are different levels of culpability.
Ksmiami
@CaseyL: I think Ukrainians are doing a good job maintaining their humanity and the GCs in the face of a relentlessly inhumane enemy, but if RU soldiers and officers get killed in the line of their hideous duty it’s no great loss to the world.
Ishiyama
Summary execution of criminals without trial is tyranny, not justice. I have a book on my office bookshelf about the prosecution of war criminals, published in 1943. Nuremburg was the model, based on such writings. (But first you have to win the war, practically speaking.)
Carlo Graziani
@Dan B:
I was just about to remark about this, because for me it falls under the heading of “marking one’s beliefs to market”. This story struck me as nothing short of a goddamn miracle.
I’m on record, in various comment threads, as expressing in very definite terms the view that the role of Ukrainian aircraft in Ukrainian airspace is to be targets, and little else. I am amazed — ecstatic, but amazed — to have been this wrong.
I’m still not certain what it means. If the USAF were disputing for control of Ukrainian airspace instead of the Russian Air Force, the Ukrainian Air Force would certainly have ceased to exist, despite the doughty character of its pilots — Ukraine is only 1/3 larger in area than Iraq, this would not be a much more complicated problem.
Perhaps it’s a training issue — having the third most powerful air force in the world, after USAF and USN, might not do the Russian AF that much good if they do not invest in pilot training. I don’t have the training numbers, though. Also, what the hell happened to their long-range interceptor missile capabilities?
Also, looking at some maps, I can see that I made quite a few mistaken assumptions concerning siting of SAMs by Russian ground forces. The Ukrainians actually control much more of their own territory than the Russians do, which matters more to SAM siting than control of “strategic” territory.
Which just goes to show what $0.02 of blog commentary is worth, I guess. In this case, $0.00.
Omnes Omnibus
Deleted in the interests of comity.
Adam L Silverman
@Ksmiami: It’s late, so I’m not going to go into detail here. This is an interstate war where the invading side is using war crimes as a tactic and, as a result, has rules of engagement that anything goes. Though some of the looting for food is purely survival action by poorly trained conscripts who are starving because someone sold all the rations on the black market. On the defending side, this is a classic low intensity war using an unconventional warfare strategy within a more traditional conventional warfare where it is appropriate to do so.
Ksmiami
@Ishiyama: I’m not saying that there shouldn’t be trials etc. I’m saying that when a country is invaded, it’s perfectly normal for the invaded nation to fight back ferociously so if Ukrainians have to kill artillery men to prevent further civilian deaths, that’s self defense. POWs etc need to be treated according to the GCs, but that’s different than fighting in the field.
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani: Why would the Russian air force be any more professional than its army?
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami: No one is saying that the Ukrainians should not be fighting back. They should and they are. Ferociously. That is not what anyone is talking about. The Ukrainians to the best of my knowledge have been doing so within the bounds of the laws of land warfare despite the fact that the Russians have not. This is what they are supposed to do and one of the many reasons we support them.
Sebastian
@Chetan Murthy:
In the Croatian War of Independence and the Bosnian War, where this doctrine was refined for the late 20th and early 21st century, the bombardment artillery was made out of mortars (80 and 120mm), cannons (I didn’t follow the calibers), missiles (Grad, multi-unguided), and AA machine guns (20 and 30mm).
The combo of mortar and AA guns was popular in Grozny too I believe because they built some sort of Punisher MBT or whatnot.
Those artillery guys were given booze and drugs. Cheap Slivovica/Vodka and Meth. So they kept firing and firing until they finally crashed and slept for a day. Then they began again.
In some places, it was years before the Storm blew them away.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: right – maybe I came in too late to the thread…
West of the Rockies
@Martin:
Perhaps the arrival of new western-supplied weaponry is making a difference? It was, what, ten days ago that a few surprise suppliers declared their intentions (e.g., Sweden).
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus:
Well, there is some service history, dating from the Soviet era, that suggested that the AF might be more technically-oriented and professionalized than the Army.
But the truth is that I don’t have up-to-date sources confirming that this has remained true through today. And, even if it has, the Russian government would need to understand the necessity of investing in training, which is a crucial part of readiness, but much less flashy than equipment.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: We have to demilitarize and remake Russia after this. The country cannot remain in its current form
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani: Besides training, maintenance.
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes.
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani: My year as XO of Service Battery with all the mechanics, truck drivers, cooks, and assorted other dirty, unglamorous, but necessary jobs is coming back to haunt me.
ian
@Ksmiami:
The unnecessary loss of any human life is a great loss to the world. They could go on to compose the greatest symphony the world has ever heard, or create a cure for cancer. They could be the parent of someone who does something miraculous.
I don’t blame people for defending themselves, I will look askew at people who have casual disregard for fellow human decency and suffering. Cheering on the deaths of the ‘bad guys’ leaves a part of your soul tainted, and makes it easier to cheer on the death of the next set of ‘bad guys’.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you for the outstanding summaries every day! I sincerely hope it does not end up as long running as A.L. COVID series.
If the Ukrainians can continue to fight the Russian Army to a bloody stalemate, eventually there will be a collapse of morale & logistics. Then a negotiated peace might be possible. Or Ukraine might be in a position to drive the Russian Army out of its territory. One has to worry about Putin using WMDs to prevent imminent defeat. However, Russian propaganda has only attempted to prepared ground for biological weapons w/ the bio labs CT, but I don’t think biological weapons will have an immediate tactical impact, & there is always the danger of infectious diseases boomeranging back to the Russian Army or even the Russian population. Using chemical or nuclear weapons & there will be no question of who is the culprit. Once WMDs are involved, I have to believe all of the fence sitting straddlers, including China, India, Brazil & the rest of the Global South will come off the fence.
On a side note, one way to pressure China to calibrate away from its rhetorically pro-Russian neutrality is for the US & the EU to work on the leaders of the Global South countries (Thailand/Indonesia/Malaysia in SE Asia, Bangladesh/Sri Lanka in S Asia, Egypt/Algeria in MENA, Kenya/Nigeria/South Africa in Sub-Saharan Africa, Chile/Mexico/Argentina in L. America). China cannot afford to stake out positions far out of step from the prevailing opinion in the Global South, no matter how much importance Xi or Beijing may ascribe to keeping Russia onside for the great power competition w/ the US.
However, US & EU diplomacy has been MIA in the Global South since the end of the Cold War. What attention there have been are overwhelmingly focused on security issues. In the meantime China has been working to influence these players (particularly Africa) to cohere around China’s awkward & self-contradicting stance on Ukraine.
Here is a good analysis of the ongoing dynamics:
China’s Emerging Ukraine Posture Taps into Western Challenges in the Global South
The article is behind a paywall, but the key sections below:
Omnes Omnibus
This too. I have been making a real effort not to let myself go down that road. It is, I understand, hard to come back once one does.
Ksmiami
@ian: Russians that are targeting civilians don’t get the benefit of my compassion- they have a choice. There’s always a choice.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami: You have a very Manichean worldview, don’t you?
Martin
@West of the Rockies: Could be. That could also be the catalyst for a counteroffensive, so it might all be of the same effort.
Ksmiami
@YY_Sima Qian: if China wants to conquer the world through trade that’s a better path than chaos, death and destruction …
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I think Russian AF pilots only average ~ 100 hrs of flying time per year. Budget has to be a constraint, & doctrine might still be outdated. 1st tier NATO countries average ~ 150 hrs / yr, IIRC. USAF/USN pilots close to 200 hrs / yr. I think Chines pilots are also average ~ 200 hrs / yr, starting from a base of ~ 100 hrs / yr in the 90s & 00s.
Of course, in the 21st century a lot of the “flying time” might be in the simulator.
Russian AF has not fought an opponent w/ credible air/surface-to-air defenses since… WW II? US/NATO AFs have not fought against a competitive opposing air force since… Vietnam? & not against a true integrated air defense system since the 1st Gulf War.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: actually I believe free will is the most noble human trait and can make the humblest person heroic. Personally, if some commander ever ordered me to kill innocent ppl, I’d either shoot said commander or myself first. There’s always a choice
Poe Larity
Claim with no clear sourcing says that the FSB was really behind the whole failure because they’ve been pocketing Vlad’s purse money for bribing Ukrainian military leaders over the last decade. They bought Dachas not ever imagining it could ever happen.
So when Putin told them Zero Hour, they needed a Plan B and started leaking to derail the invader.
https://www.thelowdownblog.com/2022/03/is-putins-invasion-failing-because.html?m=0
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami: Yes, everyone thinks that they would pass that test. And the US military at least spends quite a bit of time on the topic. But even the fact that your mind turns to shooting your commander as a first option is interesting. No questioning the order? No pointing out that the people were unarmed? No trying to talk them out of it?
Poe Larity
@Omnes Omnibus: Some of us are just preternaturally predisposed to be anti-authority.
YY_Sima Qian
@Ksmiami: It’s rarely that clear cut. The Russian artillery men could have been told that Ukrainian forces are using civil buildings as strong points. Russian propaganda has ben trying to promote this narrative, & it probably does actually happen on occasion. Urban combat is almost always ugly.
How many mosques did the US forces level in Iraq & Afghanistan because insurgents used them as arms depots or staging grounds? How many houses were leveled because of bad intel? This is not to excuse the overall Russian conduct. There is clearly a strategy of reducing the urban holdouts by indiscriminate application of violence, to both harm & to terrorize, but the guys firing the artillery will only have a very siloed view of what is going on. They may know a coordinate is a children’s hospital, but if the order comes down that the Ukrainian resistance is firing from the hospital & killing their comrades on the front lines right now, I imagine most people will shoot the howitzers.
Mallard Filmore
@Ksmiami:
This will have to be done in a fashion that China approves. I cannot see them quietly watching a nuclear Russia devolving into a failed state, nor getting conquered by Europe/USA.
Omnes Omnibus
@Poe Larity: It’s more a problem solving challenge. How does one not obey an illegal order without getting fucked over in the process? First, clarify. Did your commander really give an illegal order or was it garbled or misunderstood. Second, point out facts that the commander may not have known when the order was given. Third, point out that the order is illegal because of x and y. Fourth, if you can, go over the commanders head. Fifth, refuse to comply. Sixth, if necessary and you are able to, take action to prevent others from carrying out the order.
Don’t skip straight to step 5.
Ksmiami
@Mallard Filmore: fine by me. And we need to work to denuclearize the world so this never happens again.
YY_Sima Qian
@Mallard Filmore: No body wants to see Russia turned into a failed stated w/ thousands of WMD warheads & thousands of unemployed WMD scientists. It will be the fall of USSR redux, only w/ far greater anarchy.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami: That genie can’t be put back into the bottle. The knowledge is out there.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: oh I’d mouth off first and question the order but barring that working, there’s the issue of living with yourself.
Ksmiami
@YY_Sima Qian: did you see the video of the Russian soldiers kicking a civilian? That’s crime, not war… and no those soldiers no longer get the benefit of the doubt in terms of their morality
the pollyanna from hell
@Poe Larity: Perhaps more than some. The average American commits a number of crimes or transgressive evasions in the course of yos life. Instinctive helpfulness is not incompatible with instinctive rebellion, and humanity is always looking for better ways to manage the balance between them.
prostratedragon
@Nettoyeur: A veteran once told me that in a properly functioning unit –battalion or whatever– POWs are quickly turned over to some rear detention, precisely to keep them away from troops who have seen them in the field.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: I agree with this actually but then again you’re restating my point- that there’s always a choice in the face of committing evil acts.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami: FWIW I have actually had to deal with being given an illegal order. Not in combat and not involving killing anyone. I took it to step four of what I outlined above. When I said, “Sir, we need to take this to the CO,” my immediate commander backed down. It isn’t easy to do. You have to know you are right and even then it is gut clenching.
JAFD
Salutations, Adam !
Would like to add to the chorus of “Thank Yous”
Ishiyama
@Poe Larity: It makes nice bedtime reading, at least.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami: Yes, and that is the point of the Geneva Conventions, etc., to lay out the rules. To make sure you don’t just refuse to do things you disagree with or find unpalatable, but that you do refuse to do things that are illegal even if you want to do them.
JAFD
IIRC – don’t quote me on this – At the monastery of Monte Cassino, there are a set of carved doors showing ‘bringers of destruction’. One panel shows Attila the Hun, another shows B-24 bombers.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: But what do you do about a military structure that just abides the whims of one crazy nationalist and so devalues their own soldiers that they are starving and shot by rear officers for desertion? Russia must be defanged entirely
the pollyanna from hell
@Ksmiami: My ancestors were cannibals and war criminals and rapists and slave owners. They were wrong, but I am not so easy with contemptuously dismissing their difficulty in defying gods and priests and grandmothers and swordbrothers and warlords.
YY_Sima Qian
@Ksmiami: Yes, I have. There is zero excuse for such conduct, those soldiers deserve whatever punishment they get (which will not likely come from their chain of command), & their chain of command deserve punishment (which will not likely come from Putin). I am not entirely sure how such cases are handled in the middle of a war by a belligerent sides, but I am pretty sure it should not involve front line soldiers being judge/jury/executioner, though that sometimes happen, more so when conventional warfare evolves/devolves into insurgency/counterinsurgency.
Sebastian
Adam, would it be helpful or harmful if we sent you Tweets or snips we pick up during the day? Is there a tip address we can email to? If not, should we have one?
You are busting your ass ALL DAY to put all that info together and create all these posts. We need to know how to help you, please.
Ruckus
@Ksmiami:
One criminal act does not justify another.
There actually is supposed to be a good side amongst all this crap. And yes it is sometimes difficult to tell good from bad in warfare, but the line is known.
Ishiyama
They are handled by Court Martial. Which is also how deserters and sleeping sentinels are judged during war. Lincoln had his hands full pardoning deserters after court martial death sentences (he personally reviewed them).
Tehanu
I don’t know how to process any of this. It’s horrible what the Russians are doing. But I do very much appreciate, Adam, the work you’re doing to keep us informed.
@CaseyL: Thank you for this:
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
The Russian air force might be better trained. It does take effort and time to train a fighter pilot, a bit more than an infantry soldier or artillery loader. And it seems like it might be slightly more difficult to rip off the training regimen and sell it for yacht fuel.
Ruckus
@Carlo Graziani:
I’d bet it’s difficult to order 20 planes and only take possession of 10. Just a bit more difficult than to order 10,000 rifles and take possession of 7,000. Or sell off the other 3,000. Rifle ammunition would be even easier to sell off excess. It also seems the replacement food rations were somehow never delivered, imagine that.
It really seems there is very little of official Russia not effected by grift and outright theft. And that means most of it.
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
You have to know you are right and even then it is gut clenching.
And you can still lose even if you are 1000% correct and the situation goes your way. Military command is like any other human endeavor, it can be wrong and will still often never admit it. But you know that.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
I’m not caffeinated enough this morning to know for sure, but haven’t the actions of Putin and the Russian army exceeded the threshold for which people were hanged at the Nuremberg trials?
J R in WV
I had a long talk with my oldest friend about Wife and her health, and then we spoke about Ukraine. I always thought he was Russian, but learned this evening that his grandparents were Ukrainians, who escaped from the Cossacksof the Tsar, and the pogroms of the late 1800s and early 1900s.
I actually met some of his grandparents, who only spoke Russian and Yiddish, in Philadelphia back in the late 60s when we were in college together the first time. So now I have a personal dog in the fight over there, not that it didn’t already feel personal, of course.
And the pro-Russian RWNJs… they should be treated as the pro-AXIS propaganda mongers of the 1940s were treated — arrested and charged with supporting the enemy in a time of war! Tucker, I’m calling you !
Eta old friend is a retired ER doctor.
Geminid
I see that Turkey has not gone along with the economic sanction regime imposed by other NATO countries. I’m not sure if this means they will be sanctioned by the U.S. Ukrainian President Zelensky hasn’t denounced Turkey for this so far as I know. He has welcomed Turkey’s attempts to mediate the conflict, as well as Israel’s. Reports are that Turkey has resupplied Ukraine with it’s Bayraktar TB-2 drones, but they will not confirm this publically.
With the exception of Iran, a Russian ally, most Middle Eastern governments are trying to stay neutral in this war even though popular sentiment is on the side of Ukraine. This would include Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, and Egypt.
The leaders of the latter three countries met Monday in Sharm el-Sheik, Egypt. Reports on the meeting say that discussions of the war in Ukraine mainly concerned the effect of rising energy and grain prices, which hit Egypt especially hard. The main topics discussed were “mutual defense challenges” (meaning Iran), and the impending revival of the JCPOA limiting Iran’s program.
The JCPOA talks in Vienna were “paused” two weeks ago on account of fresh demands by Russia regarding sanctions, but even countries skeptical of a new JCPOA now assume that the six countries* hashing it out in Vienna will sign one.
*That would be China, Russia, Great Britain, Germany, France, the U.S. and Iran.
Geminid
@Geminid: I should have said the seven countries negotiating a new JCPOA.
J R in WV
@J R in WV:
Also missed thanks to Adam for all the work that goes into these reports. Between your reports on the war and Anne Laurie’s work on COVID I think we Jackals are among the most and best informed people around.
Thanks to everyone working on this task!
topclimber
@Carlo Graziani: My understanding of SAMs is that they use adaptive electronics to change course as their prey seeks to evade them. If the US is able to use command and control technology from outside Ukraine to mess up SAMs and Russian jet guidance systems, perhaps this would explain the survival of the UAF?
topclimber
@J R in WV: Let me join the Amen chorus on that. And on best wishes for your lady’s recovery.
debbie
@LivinginExile:
“Never again…for me, but not for thee.”
debbie
@Ishiyama:
I also think some comments are blowing off steam and frustration rather than actionable threats. Maybe because I grew up with three brothers constantly issuing threats to each other and to me, it just goes past me. ??♀️
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Excellent, thanks. Source?
MomSense
I have a terrible feeling of dread about what is coming next. I don’t think Putin will entertain anything resembling loss and I think he will resort to biological, chemical and/or nuclear weapons. He may also choose sabotage of nuclear facilities especially if Belarus is perhaps distancing itself from further assistance.
debbie
@MomSense:
He’s now taken a humanitarian convoy hostage, so I fear you’re right.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I can’t recall off the top of my head. I have been following some of these military matters as an amateur for over 2 decades, & the flight hour estimates have been pretty consistent over time. I think 100 hrs / yr were pretty standard for Eastern Bloc AFs (including China) dating from the Cold War. The only big change has been Chinese AFs (PLAAF & PLANAF), when they started to reform toward western AF training patterns, both in terms of flight hours (including simulator training) & exercises (greater emphasis on Top Gun/Red Flag types of exercises, Dissimilar Aircraft Combat Training, confrontation excesses w/ foreign AFs such as Thai & Pakistani etc.). I have seen Chinese annual flight hours steadily increase from 100 to 125, to 150, to 200 over the past 2 decades, as reported in Chinese military media (& IIRC confirmed by the annual study of the PLAAF published by the USAF’s Air University). Bottom tier units flying the remaining few units w/ obsolete airframes (flying Chinese developments of the MiG21) might get substantially less, though. The PLAAF & the PLANAF have inducted into serve a number of AWAC platforms, though the level of airborne command & control may not quire match NATO practice.
I don’t think the RuAFs ever truly moved forward in training or doctrine. They are still operating AWAC platforms (significantly limited in both radar & C&C) developed in the late Cold War, moderation of AWACs only just recently started. They have maintained an up-to-date IADS, though. (At least in theory. I think Russian military has neglected the drone threat. Their own UCAVs are less advanced than the Turks’, let along those of the US, Israel & China. They have placed more emphasis of land borne UCVs, deployed w/ great fanfare in Syria, but seems to be MIA in Ukraine to date. One would think they would be extremely useful for urban combat, as magnets to draw fire from the Ukrainian AT/sniper teams, & target them in turn.)
YY_Sima Qian
@Ishiyama: I thought court martials only handed infractions by one’s own, & its authority is not recognized to handle violations of the opponents’ (can’t possibly be fair trials). Didn’t the trials for WW II war crimes large happen post-war? Post-WW II war crimes have handled by the ICC when possible, right?
Carlo Graziani
@Ruckus:
I think it is worth keeping in mind a lesson that seems to be universal to all armed conflict, even ones that seem, to us, to feature Angels fighting Devils: war is brutal, and brutalizing, It’s effects on the psychology of warriors is analogous to the effect of power on politicians: just as power corrupts, war brutalizes.
This happens to the Angels just as much as to the Devils. There is nothing that can be done to change this basic fact of human nature. The best that we can do is erect some barriers, such as Geneva Convention indoctrination and enforcement, to act as guard rails, in the manner that Omnes’ brave anectode described. Just like civil society laws binding rulers, those only work by consensus, and occasionally fail, as we saw, to our shame (but hardly surprise) in Iraqi prisons, and other incidents.
It’s the shameful part of war. The best we can do, is at least feel ashamed about it, and try to do better.
lashonharangue
I don’t usually get to this until the next day. So a belated thank you to Adam.
dww44
@Carlo Graziani: Wonderful post. Thank you
Steve in the ATL
@CaseyL: history students in the future will write papers on the glorious battle of Claire’s v. Hot Topic
ETtheLibrarian
Adam saw this tweet that says
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1506306740421341193
Is this the “deal” that some think it is?
Ooops wrong thread.
SamIAm
@Omnes Omnibus:
If you have a commanding officer willing to give you an illegal order you won’t live to go to step 2. Nazis shot any soldier who didn’t immediately and unquestionably obey an order.
I doubt the current Russian army is any different. They’re leaving their own dead and quite possibly their own wounded behind.
That requires some mind blowing levels of indoctrination to get a unit to treat each member as nothing more than discarded trash. Let alone the mind fucking required to perpetrate the atrocities they’re heaping on the Ukrainian civilians.