While it started to get wider reporting last night, last Friday the leader of the majority party in Poland’s government called for an international force to be created and deployed to Ukraine for humanitarian purposes.
KYIV, March 15 (Reuters) – An international peacekeeping mission should be sent to Ukraine and be given the means to defend itself, the leader of Poland’s ruling party said on Tuesday after meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski made his remarks after he and the prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia arrived in Kyiv in a show of high-level backing for Zelenskiy, who briefed them on the war with Russia.
“I think that it is necessary to have a peace mission – NATO, possibly some wider international structure – but a mission that will be able to defend itself, which will operate on Ukrainian territory,” Kaczynski told a news conference.
“It will be a mission that will strive for peace, to give humanitarian aid, but at the same time it will also be protected by appropriate forces, armed forces,” said Kaczynski, who is seen as the main decision-maker in Poland.
Yesterday the Polish Ministry of National Defense expanded on what they intend to propose:
Onet learned the general assumptions of the proposal to create a peace mission in Ukraine, which Poland is to formally submit at the Thursday summit in Brussels, along with a detailed package of solutions.
A special international contingent on the territory of Ukraine would consist of soldiers from at least several countries, including NATO countries, the operation of which must be approved by the authorities in Kiev.
The document, on which the Ministry of National Defense is secretly working in close consultation with the leadership of the Law and Justice party, is still not completed, and its assumptions and proposals in various variants are to be consulted both with the President’s Chancellery and the National Security Bureau.
Our sources directly admit that there is a serious discrepancy between the government and the Presidential Palace regarding the proposal to create a peace mission in Ukraine: President Duda is not willing to accept the project until the Americans give the “green light”.
Therefore, even before the extraordinary summit of the alliance in Brussels on Thursday, the Polish proposal is to be sent to the White House, whose decisions will de facto depend on its further fate.
This position of the American administration was repeated last night by the spokeswoman of the White House, Jen Psaki, who assured that the United States was ready to discuss the Polish proposal for a peace mission in Ukraine, but – as she clearly indicated – the Americans would not send their own troops. – The president made it very clear that we would not send US troops to fight the Russian troops and that it was not in our interest. But we will continue to discuss a number of ideas, including this one, said Psaki, in response to a question about Poland’s idea of sending a peace mission to Ukraine. As she added, “there is a series of discussions behind the scenes,” she said, however, that the US position on sending its troops to Ukraine was unlikely to change.
Earlier, the Polish proposal for a peacekeeping mission was also rejected by NATO. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg admittedly assured that the allied countries were ready to provide all necessary support to Ukraine, but also stated that the allies also agreed that NATO should not move its forces either to Ukraine’s land territory or to its airspace . – We have a responsibility not to escalate this conflict, this war beyond Ukraine – stressed the head of NATO.
Much more at the link, especially if you speak Polish!
The Russians, of course, are not to keen on this idea:
March 23 (Reuters) – Russia on Wednesday condemned what it called a “reckless” Polish proposal to send international peacekeepers into Ukraine and warned that it could lead to a direct clash between Russian and NATO forces.
Poland said last Friday it would formally submit a proposal for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine at the next NATO summit.
Asked about the initiative, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “It would be a very reckless and extremely dangerous decision.”
He told reporters on a conference call that any possible contact between Russian and NATO forces “could have clear consequences that would be hard to repair”.
When Kaczynski first made his remarks, several people tweeted out variants of “you and whose Army?” Which tells me you know nothing of Poland’s military without specifically telling me you know nothing of Poland’s military. One of the greatest things about my assignment at USAWC was being the frontline supervisor for a number of officers from allied and partnered states as their faculty advisor, being their research supervisor as their strategy research project advisor, doing both, as well as just being (one of) their professors in their core course seminars and/or electives. My teaching duties also included doing guest lesson blocks in the Regional Studies electives. I have had the privilege of supervising senior colonels from several former Soviet states that are now both EU and NATO members. This includes a Polish colonel my second year at USAWC. I have no doubt that in a fight between the Russian Army and the Polish Army that the Polish Army would get the better of that encounter. And that was before the hot mess we’ve seen the Russian Army revealed as over the past several weeks. If the Poles are ready to assume more risk and they think they have willing partners from other EU states to do it with them, I would not bet against them.
Estonia has also stated that NATO needs to reevaluate its force posture in eastern Europe.
Estonia is calling for Nato to abandon its “tripwire” posture in eastern Europe and build up a permanent force in the region capable of stopping a Russian offensive.
Ahead of Thursday’s Nato summit, Jonatan Vseviov, the permanent secretary of the Estonian foreign ministry, said that Europe and the North Atlantic alliance could never return to the world it knew before the 24 February Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“We will be in a totally new security environment. There will be a new Ukraine. There will be a new Russia. There will be a new Europe. There is no going back to February 23,” Vseviov told the Guardian in an interview in Washington.
More than 20,000 Nato troops, the overwhelming majority of them US forces, have been deployed to the Baltic states, Poland and the rest of eastern Europe in the aftermath of the invasion.
There had previously been only a few thousand alliance forces in the region, intended to serve as a tripwire which would be overrun in the event of a Russian attack. The presence of US and western European soldiers among them, however, was intended to leave Moscow in no doubt that those countries would send in large reinforcements.
Vseviov, a former Estonian ambassador to Washington, argued that the Kremlin had miscalculated so badly in Ukraine – over its own military strength, Ukrainian capability and determination, and western resolve – that it could no longer be taken for granted Moscow would get the message, and believe Nato reinforcements would come to the rescue.
“The tripwire-based approach is dependent upon an assumption that the one that is being deterred understands the link between the tripwire and reinforcing forces,” he said.
“Knowing this and understanding that we need to now build Nato’s defense and deterrence, and European security in general, for the long haul,” Vseviov said, “we need to move from a tripwire-based deterrence towards a forward defence-based deterrence, or a deterrence by denial, if you will.”
He said the amount of troops and equipment needed would depend on military planners and on different situations in different countries. The force did not have to be big enough to stop Russia making any territorial gains, but sufficient to put up stiff resistance.
“We need to be less reliant on reinforcements, and we need to have more of the defensive forces in the frontline states on day one,” Vseviov said. “I think there will be wide political consensus in Nato on the need to move that way, and the exact details are being worked out.”
The US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, confirmed that long-term changes in Nato’s posture in Europe would be discussed this week.
Much more at the link!
More after the jump.
NV is publishing an open letter to the foreign media covering Russian invasion of Ukraine from Ukrainian media organizations, reporters, photographers, media managers and communication professionals
Dear colleagues,
On February 24 2022, Russia began an unprovoked full scale invasion of Ukraine, a massive escalation of their eight-year war in Donbas in east Ukraine. Russia’s war is conducted along four axes, attacking all major Ukrainian cities with missiles, air strikes and in most instances, ground forces. Untold numbers of civilians and servicemen have been killed. In just over three weeks, more than three million Ukrainians have become refugees in Europe. Four members of the media community have been killed by Russian forces: Oleksandra Kuvshynova, Brent Renaud, Evgen Sakun and Pierre Zakrzewski.
Russian forces kidnap Ukrainian journalists in order to silence them, thus a Ukrainian journalist Viktoriya Roschina and Oleh Baturin spent 6 and 8 days in captivity after disappearing. Ukrainian photojournalist Maks Levin disappeared on March 13th while reporting from the frontline near Kyiv. A publisher from Melitopol Mikhail Kumok and three journalists – Yevgeniya Boryan, Yuliya Olkhovska and Lyubov Chaika – has been also detained for 1 day and have been pressured to collaborate with Russian occupational regime in their city.
Simultaneously Russia has been attacking our core values of truthful, fact-driven and honest reporting through continuous disinformation campaigns. Many people are not aware of the scale and depth of these campaigns, and their full impact is yet to be felt.
The effectiveness of these disinformation narratives did not happen overnight. They took time to seep into public discourse, capitalizing on misrepresentations or misunderstandings over language, history and politics, and exacerbating existing divisions in society until they began to stifle civil discussion.
This is why, as individual journalists and organizations from the Ukrainian media community who have battled with Russian information warfare since 2014, we would like to highlight the following points regarding the language used to describe this war. Some of them might not be obvious but are vitally important to us and a truthful representation of this war. We ask media organizations to share this with their newsrooms and audiences:
1. One common error is to use terms like “crisis”, “conflict” or “military operation”, or call it “Ukrainian” i.e. “Ukraine Crisis” or “Ukraine conflict”. This is a full scale invasion of, and war against, Ukraine. We ask you to correctly indicate Russia’s role in the war with the wording “Russia’s war in Ukraine” and/or “Russian invasion of Ukraine”, especially in captions, headlines, leads and hashtags.
2. At the same time, we ask not to overuse the phrase “Putin’s war”. Even though there is a temptation to believe that this war started only because of the Russian president, several polls from diverse polling organizations (Savanta ComRes, VCIOM, the research project “Do Russians Want War?”) have reported that the silent majority of Russians – roughly 60 percent – support the war. During the first week of the war, public support for Putin in Russia grew from 60 to 71 percent. Russian soldiers on the ground are firing missiles and bombs, and deliberately killing civilians. Many of them do not have access to the facts and to independent media, but this does not take responsibility away from them.
3. Many refer to the 2014 pseudo-referendums in the Ukrainian territories of Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts as explanations for Russian military aggression. This is misleading. The territories of Crimea, and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, were annexed and occupied by Russian forces in 2014. Crimea was annexed by Russia in an unequivocal violation of international law. The war in Donbas was exclusively orchestrated and supported by the Russian State. The pseudo-referendums and proxy republics are not recognised by the international community. Experts (Orysia Lutsevych, Andrew Wilson, and Nikolay Mitrokhin to name a few) emphasize that neither the creation of the puppet “republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk nor the conventional war would have happened without Russian involvement. The current escalation demonstrates Russia’s desire to control the whole of Ukraine, and these “republics” are used as a platform for full-scale invasion and a tool for propaganda and disinformation.
4. Additionally the quasi “republics” in Donbas are not another armed side of the conflict. They operate as part of the Russian army and mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Using terms like “separatist-held areas” is therefore incorrect. Please consider using “Russian proxies”.
5. Another common error we observe is to report Ukrainian and Russian positions as “two equal perspectives”. Russian positions are based on lies, propaganda and denial of the existence of Ukraine as a nation and state. Russian propaganda is not just “strategic communication” or another point of view, it is using disinformation to justify killing thousands of civilians and continuing a completely unprovoked war.
The narrative that characterizes the war as a proxy one between Russia and the West denies Ukrainian agency – something that the Ukrainian people’s resistance to invasion clearly demonstrates. NATO is an alliance based on the right of sovereign nations to collective defense, enshrined in Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations. By focusing on ‘expansion’, the media are perpetuating the Kremlin’s justification for war and ignoring the democratic voice of the Ukrainian people who wish to live in peace, free from Russian aggression.
6. Finally, we implore you to include, engage and hear Ukrainian experts. The majority of international experts specialize in Russia or Eastern Europe. We ask to include Ukrainian experts, or those who have lived and worked in Ukraine in the journalism you publish about the war.
Information warfare and disinformation academics and experts warn that Russian tactics, perpetuated by its supporters here in the West and abroad, have one objective: to divide, deceive, sow doubt and create enough distrust of information that people do not know what to believe, and question even the most well-evidenced facts. They will play on the truths we tell ourselves and promises which go unkept. They will attack sentiments shared by, and within, ethnic, gender, linguistic and socio-economic groups. Disinformation aims to oversimplify existing issues and turn victims into perpetrators. We see this already with Russians supporting this war believing they are fighting NATO and “neo-Nazis” in Ukraine. We have seen it in the past with disinformation targeting the Syrian refugee crisis in Europe and the truth behind the downing of flight MH-17 in 2014.
A bit more at the link!
Related to the open letter is this important thread from Ukrainian reporter Iryna Matviyishyn:
Foreigners preaching pacifism to Ukrainians is something special now. I even read an article referring to Tolstoy, and how non-violent resistance could be an alternative in Ukraine's fight against Russia. It could be a joke but it's a deadly narrative.
— Iryna Matviyishyn (@IMatviyishyn) March 23, 2022
These ‘pacifist’ comments appear under almost every article about Ukraine. Most often from people who have no clue about Ukraine’s bitter history under Russian oppression and terror. I have bad news for those who believe that the war can stop itself
With Russia as a neighbor, Ukraine has only two options as a nation: either to win the war, no matter what, and exist, or to lose and face extermination. Centuries of history (up to what we are seeing now) prove that. Choosing to live, you can’t win the war just waving the flag
Russia attacked Ukraine as a revenge on a democratic, free, innovative society that has never seen itself part of the ‘great russia’, and had only be held there by force. Ukraine would gladly live as a pacifist country if it were somewhere between civilized states but it’s not
The whole debate about not sending defensive weapons to Ukraine for the sake of peace is prolonging the genocide of Ukrainian people. How do you peacefully resist when Russian tank shoots at your car with children when you’re trying to evacuate?
How do you oppose the bombardment from the sky with peaceful resistance? How can pregnant women in hospitals oppose Russian aggression when they are a target? It is not about peaceful resistance, you either survive, or die. Defensive weapons is the only way to help them survive.
Finally, calls ‘to stop the war’ without naming Russia, putin as an aggressor are not only useless, they are playing into the Kremlin’s hand. If you don’t call the perpetrator out, expect more violence, more deaths, not peace.
She’s absolutely correct. I get that a lot of people, including a lot of people that are well known, well regarded, and often highly credentialed names in commenting on foreign policy, global events, and/or US policy making regarding have been constantly banging the drum about not doing anything that could escalate into a nuclear exchange or a nuclear war, including constantly parsing Ukrainian statements for indications they’re trying to provide ways for Putin to save face so that the war can be ended quickly. Being concerned about unintentional escalation to a nuclear exchange or nuclear war makes sense, even for those of us who think the ambiguity in Russia’s military doctrine is a Psychological Warfare bluf to prevent us from doing anything to quickly, effectively, and once and for all stop Putin’s aggression in Ukraine and around the world. Constantly coming up with interpretations of events in Ukraine or Russia, statements by Ukrainian leaders like President Zelenskyy, and/or suggesting that the Ukrainians should be negotiating a way out of this by giving Putin something to save face is naive. It also diminishes the threat that Putin presents to Ukraine, eastern Europe, the trans-Caucasus, and to parts of the Middle East and Africa. This is a war, not a trade negotiation. The Ukrainians need to fight it until they’ve inflicted so much pain on the Russians that the Russians either abandon the fight or seek terms from the Ukrainians. And we need to ensure that the Ukrainians are provided with what they need to do so. Especially if we’re not willing to fight alongside them for all the reasons that have been repeatedly stated. Anything else allows Putin to win, nurse his wounds, regroup, rebuild, and eventually do the same thing again and again.
I saw this meme last week and saved it because it pretty much sums up perfectly the way Putin has been operating since at least 2008. I haven’t been able to find who posted it again, so no attribution, but not through lack of trying.
Putin’s not a genius, he’s just watched over and over and over again how the US, its allies, and its partners will let him get away with whatever he’s doing. As a result, he keeps doing the same thing over and over and over again. He will continue to do so until he is stopped and that includes finally getting negative consequences rather than rewards for his aggression.
Between Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s statements about the use of nuclear weapons, the much more frequent and unprompted threats of Russia using chemical, biological, radiological, and/or nuclear (CBRN) weapons in Ukraine by Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ spokeswoman, Medvedev’s rant at the beginning of the week about Russia also invading Poland, Moldova, and other post Soviet states in Europe to reclaim and redeem then, and Russia state backed TV doing the same, the Russians are telling us how they understand the world. They are telling us what they intend to do to and with the post Soviet states in Europe. They are telling us, as well as showing us multiple times a day in Ukraine, that despite signing on to the various Geneva Conventions governing the conduct of war, that they will not observe them because they don’t think they have to and they don’t think anyone can do anything about it.
Anyone trying to wish cast off ramps for the Ukrainians that just ignores the need for a successful battlefield termination in order to set the conditions to secure the peace post conflict is demonstrating that no matter how well educated, credentialed, and/or regarded they are, they do not understand what is going on in Ukraine. Nor do they understand Putin and how he operates.
Anders Ostlund sums it up well:
EU countries should keep in mind that Ukraine is letting its blood for them. Ukraine has called Russia’s bluff and exposed the Russian army to be rubbish. For each tank, airplane, artillery piece etc that Ukraine destroy there is one less for Europe to worry about.
Ukraine’s efforts, doggedness, ingenuity and sacrifice is saving Europe a lot of money and nervs. Ukraine will take Russia down and Russia will become less of a threat to Europe. To not even be willing to impose harder sanctions against Russia is very disrespectful.
A free, independent, and economically and militarily strong Ukraine is the best insurance for peace in Europe at this stage. Ukraine has already shown it can keep Russia at bay.
What Ostlund says applies to EU countries also applies to all those recommending to Ukraine what it should be doing to make peace and/or wish casting how they think that should happen.
Mariupol:
I’ve been trying to avoid posting images of the destruction in Ukraine but this obliteration of Mariupol by the Russian troops needs to be out there. 90% of the city is gone. Duda said it looks like Warsaw in 1944 and it does. pic.twitter.com/G1tRZzhMF0
— Bakhti Nishanov (@b_nishanov) March 23, 2022
All that damage was done in three weeks!
Here’s a thread describing the human reality in Mariupol, what the video above can’t show you. It is grim reading.
#Mariupol. THREAD. From my sources on the ground, most parts of the city are under #RussianInvaders control except the western part. Residents who remain there try to not leave their shelters, as the Russians open fire on moving targets. The bomb shelters are full.
— katerina sergatskova (@KSergatskova) March 23, 2022
- It is almost impossible to evacuate from #Mariupol. People need cars, but most vehicles have been destroyed or stolen; there is no fuel. Some people just walk somewhere on foot just to get out. The trip can last for hours under constant fire.
- The fate of 1300 people who are under the rubble of the Drama Theater is still unknown. My sources say that no one can sort out the rubble, there is no capacity. Those 130-140 people who were able to get out after the bombardment were in the upper room of the shelter.
- Most likely, the rest of the people under the #Mariupol Drama theatre are slowly dying there or have already died. As I write this, I feel rage and powerlessness at the same time. Russia is destroying everything, we are defending ourselves from an absolute monster.
- #Russia specifically targets civilians, women, and children to create a propaganda image for its zombie citizens. They kill thousands of people for a TV picture. Just think about it.
People leaving Mariupol by foot — under artillery fire — because there aren’t enough cars and petrol. pic.twitter.com/g8VRquBtre
— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) March 23, 2022
Here’s the BBC’s reporting on the aftermath of the bombing of the Mariupol Drama House. It is also grim reading.
As the port city of Mariupol was being razed to rubble by Russian bombs, hundreds of civilians, mostly women and children, went to hide in a theatre near the waterfront, a grand Soviet-era building. Last Wednesday, a bomb hit and – within seconds – the building had been split in two and left in ruins. We still do not know how many died, but the BBC has spoken to survivors who described for the first time what happened when the bomb fell.
All morning, Russian planes had been circling the skies above the city.
Mariia Rodionova, a 27-year-old teacher, had been living in the theatre for 10 days, having fled her ninth-floor apartment with her two dogs. They camped next to the stage in an auditorium near the back of the building.
That morning she had got some fish scraps from an outdoor field kitchen to feed her dogs, but then realised they had not drunk any water. So at about 10:00, she tied her dogs to her luggage and made her way towards the main entrance where a queue was forming for hot water.
And then the bomb fell.
There was the sound of a clap, thunderous and loud. Then the sound of broken glass. A man came from behind and pushed her to a wall, protecting her with his own body. The blast was so loud that she felt intense pain in one of her ears, so intense she thought her eardrum must have split. She only realised it had not because she could hear the screams of people. The screams were everywhere.
The force of the blast threw another man against a window. He fell on the ground, his face covered with broken glass. A woman, who also had a wound on her head, tried to help him. Mariia, who had been volunteering at the Ukrainian Red Cross in Mariupol, gathered her senses enough to shout over, telling her to stop.
Five-year-old screaming
“I said ‘Wait, don’t touch him. I’ll bring my first aid kit and I’ll help you both’,” she recalled. But her kit was inside the theatre, and that part of the building had collapsed.
“There was only rubble,” she said. It was impossible for her to get in.
“For two hours, I couldn’t do anything,” she said. “I just stayed there. I was in shock.”
Vladyslav, a 27-year-old locksmith who does not want to use his full name, had also wandered into the building that morning. He had some friends there and went to look for them. He was near the main entrance when the explosion hit. He ran with others into a basement and, 10 minutes later, heard the building was on fire and emerged to a scene of chaos.
“Terrible things were happening,” he said.
He saw plenty of people bleeding. Some had open fracture wounds. “One mother was trying to find her kids under the rubble. A five-year-old kid was screaming: ‘I don’t want to die’. It was heartbreaking.”
It is likely to have been just one bomb that fell on the theatre that morning, bringing all that destruction with it, analysis by McKenzie Intelligence Services for the BBC has concluded.
“Due to the missile appearing to accurately hit the centre of the building, we believe it is a laser-guided bomb, likely the KAB-500L or similar variant, launched from an aircraft,” the London-based group said.
Much, much more at the link!
Kharkiv:
Kharkiv is under constant shelling. People stay in shelters not only because they are afraid of explosions, but also because they simply have nowhere else to go. 500-600 people live in one shelter. Hundreds of volunteers are driving through the city under attack. pic.twitter.com/XWhmywV315
— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) March 23, 2022
The Russians are mining Ukraine’s farms and fields, which will cause long term, lingering damage to Ukraine’s ability to get its agricultural sector back on line. It will also lead to widespread food shortages and famine in the global south that rely on Ukrainian wheat or products made from it. Which, perhaps, might be a good reason for the states in the global south to get the anti-American and anti-Western sticks out of their butts and stop the fence straddling. I realize they have a lot of reasons, hundreds of years in some cases, to be pissed at the Europeans and the US, but this war in Ukraine is going to be existential for them when their citizens can’t be fed.
Mykolaiv:
Trying to go around Mykolaiv, Russia would still face significant challenges. If north, Troops spread thin and Ukrainian forces will be on both sides. If south, Ukrainian artillery + geographical challenges and limitations. Either way it won’t be a breeze. https://t.co/6cak0pSnQi
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 23, 2022
This is another attempt by the Russians to achieve two objectives in southern and eastern Ukraine. The first is to establish the land bridge that will connect the Ukrainian territory Russia has seized since 2014 in Ukraine and deny Ukraine access to its ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The second is to find a way to encircle the Ukrainian Army in the south and east, known as the Joint Forces Command.
Here’s the British Ministry of Defense’s update and assessment for 23 March 2022:
It is unclear if the Ukrainian armed forces north and west of Kyiv are yet in a position to fully encircle and then reduce the Russian army they are fighting or if they will simply keep picking them apart.
Illla Ponamorenko is The Kyiv Post‘s defense reporter and is on the ground in Kyiv:
I don’t think that we should expect to see Russian forces in Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha effectively locked in a death trap in the nearest time.
Ukrainian military will most likely continue breaking their supply lines and exhausting them in mobile defense along roads.— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) March 23, 2022
I don’t think this large enemy group is exhausted enough for that. And I don’t think Ukrainian forces have enough control north and south of Bucha, including the Zhytomyr highway — at least, not yet. We’ll see what happens next.
IMHO it’s too early for Ukrainian forces to completely switch from mobile defense and mount a big time attack in this area — the command still wants to save and as much power as possible. Russian air power in the region is not 100% suppressed yet.
Everything written above is nothing but my speculation as a witness, of course.
That said, Ukraine has restricted the combat zones around Kyiv to reporters for security reasons.
The Russians are trying to once again set up shop at Melitopol Airport.
Russian occupying forces set up military base at Melitopol Air Base, fire missiles to other cities. Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov said on Facebook on March 23 that the city’s residents are essentially serving as living shields for the Russian military.
Some good news: the Christian nationalist, neo-NAZI former Washington state legislator who was determined by his colleagues to have taken part in domestic terrorism against the United States, has had his efforts to traffic a bunch of Ukrainian children through Poland back to the United States with the help of a Polish evangelical neo-fascist minister stopped by the Polish authorities. I think he is going to find that the Polish authorities, as well as ultimately their Ukrainian counterparts, are not going to treat him as lightly as US Federal, Washington state, and Spokane municipal law enforcement has.
We’ll finish with your daily bayraktar!
Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 in Ukraine… pic.twitter.com/hEMwsBfIhv
— Middle East Times ???????? (@middleeasttime) March 22, 2022
Open thread!
HumboldtBlue
The Tweet of the decade just dropped from everyone’s favorite on-the-ground reporter in Ukraine, Terrell James.
And yet another amazing post, thank you Adam. That Poland news is certainly something to watch, that could put NATO troops in theater and under fire.
David Anderson
Have the Poles mobilized their reservists en masse?
sanjeevs
NYT put together a very good report on a battle in Makariv with intercepted communications and video. Crap at political reporting but they are really good at this.
https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000008266864/russia-army-radio-makariv.html
Mike in DC
I think the Baltics could use at least one BCT(Brigade Combat Team) equivalent per country, that can surge to a division per country(effectively a NATO corps defending them) in the event of a Russian troop buildup. Maybe another corps equivalent deployed in Poland, plus a division in Romania, and good to go. I’d probably go ahead and put THAAD and Aegis Ashore in E. Europe, too.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Weren’t the Poles the one vetoing the Mig transfers as too much of an escalation and now they want to go in? Sounds like they decided now is the time to call Putin’s bluff.
Grumpy Old Railroader
Fascinating that we really do not hear much on equipment being sent to Ukraine. We get the broad outlines but I would be interested in what secret sauce is being given to Ukraine to help cook a bear
Mallard Filmore
Two items that i saw today:
title: “Ukraine Just Captured Part Of One Of Russia’s Most Capable Electronic Warfare System”
link-1: https://democraticunderground.com/100216517414
link-2: https://twitter.com/space_osint/status/1506688088222969857
title: “Do any of Russia’s Nuclear Weapons Actually Work?”
link: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3/23/2087736/-Do-any-of-Russia-s-Nuclear-Weapons-Actually-Work
Lyrebird
Thanks for the whole piece, Adam. This quote from Matviyishyn jumped out at me, because in addition to everything she says, seems like Ukrainians’ choice to fight back is the upset that has opened the door for this world realignment.
Martin
Biden is going to have his work cut out for him on this trip. Adam, you mentioned Ukraine perhaps favoring a defensive alliance with neighboring non-NATO and NATO states, because of NATO not responding in a manner they consider suitable. But this is looking as though some NATO members would like a more aggressive stance here and are suggesting an EU military separate from NATO, at least one that can conduct humanitarian missions (everything starts somewhere), which of course the US would very much not want to have happen, but which also might satisfy Ukraine if Ukraine does join the EU. NATOs newfound unity seems like it has the possibility of getting away from the US a bit.
13000 more anti-armor weapons pledged to Ukraine today from various European countries. 10 more tanks on the confirmed destroyed list. Ukraine seems to primarily be running night operations because we’ve also been shoveling night vision gear at them which Russia seems to lack presumably because the black market needed them more.
Omnes Omnibus
@Grumpy Old Railroader: There is, of course, a reason that we don’t hear about the details.
dm
Maybe we could call this new thing the Poles (plus the Baltics, it sounds like) are proposing a “Warsaw Pact”?
Chetan Murthy
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I could be misremembering, but I thought it was less that the Poles thought sending MiGs was too much of an escalation, and more that they felt that all of NATO (which means the USA) should take responsibility for sending those MiGs. In short, Poland didn’t want to all alone own the consequences of sending those MiGs. And honestly, I don’t blame them: to whatever extent we’re supporting UA, it’s a cross-Western Alliance effort, and no one country should shoulder responsibility that might bring down on them a Russian attack.
OTOH, jesus, those planes need to have been *sent*. From what I read yesterday in Adam’s roundup, UA’s planes are taking a serious beating, and I’m sure that more airframes would be appreciated. Even if just for spare parts.
Ksmiami
Raise the stakes- protect Ukraine and destroy Russia’s military capabilities- they can go back to 17th century serfdom for all I care.
hint- Anduril drones
Fair Economist
Even before this display of corruption and rot in the Russian army, you’d have said the Poles could go toe to toe with them alone? I knew the Poles had a credible army but I’d never have thought that earlier. Now, yeah, looks like it.
It really is astonishing to realize that if a couple of other Eastern European countries joined in with Ukraine Russia’s conventional forces would just crumple. I suspect Russian threats are intended to scare the Poles off but the Poles can read news as well as anybody else and I’m sure they find the threats rather pathetic and irritating rather than menacing.
Ksmiami
@Chetan Murthy: I love Biden but Putin needs to be stopped Rt fucking now and we have the technology to do it
dm
@Chetan Murthy: I think the problem NATO sees with sending MIGs to Ukraine is that they can be used as offensive weapons that can reach into Russia.
Javelins, Stingers, etc., are defensive — they have limited range, and your target has to be close to you for the weapon to be effective (meaning, the target has to be in Ukraine). Bayraktars may have an offensive capability, I don’t know their range.
So I kind of understand the reluctance to hand the MIGs over as being qualitatively different from providing other anti-aircraft weapons.
Fair Economist
@Ksmiami: It’s not going to be our job to invade or remake Russia for a number of reasons – the scale, the nuke problem, and the moral issue, given that our beef is *them* doing a war of conquest. We will help the Ukrainians drive then out of Ukraine and probably seize some of the frozen assets for reparations a la Afghanistan. After that it’s up to the Russians.
sstarr
I think everyone needs to remember the risks. If NATO raises the stakes in this conflict and there is a miscalculation or accident then you, me, our families, our friends and everyone else we know dies within about an hour. I know that the images are hart rending and that inaction is aggravating, but is stopping the Russian advance into Ukraine worth two or three billion people? We need to be very, very careful.
sab
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: They weren’t vetoing it. They wanted it but they wanted someone bigger and stronger (USA) to take responsibility. Made sense, they are right on the border. But being sensible against Putin may not be the better option.
Adam L Silverman
@David Anderson: I don’t know.
TeezySkeezy
@Ksmiami: Such imperative certainty. I will agree, we absolutely have the technology to stop Russia. How contained that stoppage is an open question.
Fair Economist
@sstarr: I think end of the world concerns are pretty much moot. Putin is going to lose this one and he’s going to blame us for it. If he chooses to end the world for that and can find people willing to carry out the order, we have no good way to avoid it. So may as well head in and save some Ukrainians.
That said, I think the Polish idea of a humanitarian intervention is good diplomatically. Putin will look particularly stupid for trying to blow up the world because Poland is delivering food and water to Mariupol, and that will affect his ability to convince Russian soldiers to push the buttons that will kill them too.
marcopolo
Here’s something new:
Perhaps the Biden administration is starting to wise up on to how to play this game with Putin. Make him worry about the consequences of his actions. And instead of telling what we actions we won’t take, say what we might do. Ball in your court VVP.
HumboldtBlue
@Mallard Filmore:
Some great links, thanks.
gene108
When I read about the besieged cities in Ukraine or Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, and how long it took to rebuild, and other places and situations where power, transportation, medical supplies, etc. become limited or non-existent, I wonder how medically vulnerable people survive?
I’ve had a kidney transplant. I’ve been on dialysis. I am entirely dependent on immunosuppressants or dialysis to stay alive.
There are other medically vulnerable groups that depend on the miracles of modern medicine to stave of life threatening conditions. The suffering they must be enduring, from controlled conditions becoming life threatening again to the stress of “when the other shoe will drop” regarding symptoms and ailments, has to be terrible.
I wonder how many of these people will die, because they can no longer get care.
Ishiyama
It is not likely that the Russian forces will suffer an overwhelming defeat or internal collapse in the short term. (I don’t completely dismiss the possibility, but it’s not my guess.) Sad to say, I expect at least a three-year war. As long as Putin can hope for a Republican victory in 2024, he will think he can recover his position then.
Jay
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
@Chetan Murthy:
The US and NATO nixed the transfer.
– Polish MIG’s have lots of “Western” upgrades that arn’t compatible with Ukrainian MIGs or their pilot’s training.
– the proposed transfer was Ukrainian pilots flying from Poland to a NATO base then to Ukraine, which the Russians claimed would be a NATO attack on Russia.
– Poland wanted them back stopped with F-16’s, which Poland also flies, but the Rethugs and the Usual Suspects nixed.
It’s still possible, but they would need to fly to a non-NATO country, be transferred, pilots trained or aircraft reconfigured, then flown by Ukrainian pilots to Ukraine.
Chetan Murthy
@Fair Economist: @Ksmiami: I encourage both of you to read Bret Deveraux’s explanation of nuclear deterrence: https://acoup.blog/2022/03/11/collections-nuclear-deterrence-101/
and think (carefully, *carefully*) about these issues of interior and exterior maneuvers. About predictability. And about whether you even understand the stakes. B/c I fear you do not.
TeezySkeezy
@Mallard Filmore: This is definitely a bet to go all in on without any hesitation. /s
Adam L Silverman
@Ksmiami: Trust me, you don’t want anything made by Thiel’s companies.
TeezySkeezy
@Chetan Murthy: Ah, some sanity. Nice.
Omnes Omnibus
@Fair Economist: This is correct. The other commenter had been off the rails for a while now.
BeautifulPlumage
Russia proves futility of Western sanctions by presenting first domestic-made drone
https://mobile.twitter.com/Sputnik_Not/status/1503677147659046914?cxt=HHwWhMC4scSZkd4pAAAA
BeautifulPlumage
@Mallard Filmore: The Daily KOS article was interesting, as were the comments. The grifting aspect seems very believable.
sab
He hasn’t read our kay on her morning posts. Her kid did contract work there and was seriously underwhelmed by their outfit. Not professional at all. And this was her apolitical kid. He was just evaluating the job site. Not political evaluation. Just professional, and the suck.
marcopolo
A question about Ukrainian refugees & the US. I saw a report today that said between 3/1 and 3/16 the US let in a total of 7 UA refugees. Why such a low number? I mean is there a chance this info is wrong & the number is higher? I guess I am kind of shocked that we haven’t (like the federal gov’t in cooperation with states/private non-profit agencies) at least, you know, stated a target that X (like 100 or 200 or whatever a plane load would be) UA refugees would be flown to the US daily until the conflict is over. Is it a question of vetting folks? Money? Don’t want to get too pissed off about it if there is an actual good reason or if something is about to kick off like tomorrow that I don’t know about, but this does piss me off. Though I do realize that the distance between here and UA creates its own logistical problems. On a side note, do we know anything about whether and how many UA refugees Canada is taking in atm?
Carlo Graziani
@Mike in DC:
You know, I think this sort of view reflects a fear of a nation that doesn’t exist any more, once called the Soviet Union, which was indeed capable of conjuring up the kind of fearsome combat power required to mount multi-theater offensives that NATO might have to scramble to contain, with no assurance of success.
Russia is not the Soviet Union, and the evidence appears to indicate that all its combat power has been poured into the Ukrainian sausage grinder, where it is being turned into pap.
It took Russia many years to build even this POS, badly-trained, ineptly led, shinily but inappropriately armed army, with a general staff of retarded kindergardeners with inner-ear disorders. They won’t get another one any time soon. I don’t think Russia’s neighbors other than Ukraine have ever been safer from invasion than they are today.
Adam L Silverman
@sab: Huh?
Jay
@Ishiyama:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1
Jay
@marcopolo:
so far, we only have Ukrainians who were in Canada already.
Omnes Omnibus
Jesus. Not an order that should be given. And certainly not in clear.
sdhays
@Carlo Graziani: They seem to be of the opinion that so much of this should have been known by Putin before the invasion – and wasn’t – that they need to communicate more clearly so that even delusional recluse tyrants like Putin or anyone who might succeed him would understand that picking a fight with NATO is very hopeless.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Thiel I think and his spyware.
Ksmiami
@Chetan Murthy: I wasn’t thinking nuclear- more cyber stuff that shuts off transport systems etc. And can’t be traced immediately
Omnes Omnibus
@sab: I thought Kay’s kid worked at a Musk place.
Kelly
@Jay: 73 Ukrainian tanks lost kinda offset by the 118 Russian tanks captured. Of course the Ukrainian were probably well maintained and the Russian tanks probably in need of maintenance.
sdhays
@sab: I’m not sure what you’re responding to. Was Tesla mentioned somewhere?
Ksmiami
@Fair Economist: No invasion necessary but help in rebuilding their civil society and a less corrupt economy could help set a new course.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: Basically the artillery guys are thugs- great
marcopolo
@Jay: Thank you for that info. And I went and took some initiative and used the google and found this:
Biden admin to expedite resettlement of some vulnerable Ukrainian refugees in U.S.
So it appears we are starting to do something…just taking time cause fucking bureaucracy & finding the proper legal justifications and stuff.
kindness
How come Ukraine doesn’t have anti-ship missiles? I read that Russian ships in the Black Sea are being used to bombard the coastal cities. I would think a handful of Exocet missiles might help. Of course they probably would need to able to be launched from land rather than air.
Adam L Silverman
@Ksmiami: Maybe start with this next time.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami: No, artillery lends dignity to what would otherwise be a vulgar brawl.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: Anduril was founded by the guys behind Oculus. They do US military drones that have tremendous reach.
Omnes Omnibus
@marcopolo: Also, they can’t exactly walk here.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: I used to think corruption was just a part of doing business in many parts of the world and while not great, not that dangerous but now I realize corruption ruins everything and impacts bad decision making at a lethal level
marcopolo
@Omnes Omnibus: Well, if you’d seen my first post at #36 I did mention the use of planes…like setting a goal of resettling a planeload of UA refugees a day or something, lol
And with that I am to bed, didn’t notice the time but my carriage just turned into a pumpkin.
Adam L Silverman
@Ksmiami: I know who they are. I know what they do. And I know who the ultimate beneficial owner – Thiel – who has bankrolled them is.
Adam L Silverman
@Ksmiami: Pretty much.
Chetan Murthy
@marcopolo: [I have no expert qualifications, but] It seems like, in Deveraux’s explanation, this would be an “exterior maneuver” — an attempt to both tell Russia to back off (shrinking their window) and provide more certainty to Russia that we would take a nuke seriously (widening our window). A way of making it clearer to Russia what our response would be, increasing the predictability of such a response in their eyes. But hey, I have no qualifications, so this plus $5 will get you a double espresso at Peet’s.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: If we survive this the future drone wars are gonna be lit…
VeniceRiley
Been hanging out at r/Ukraine and I agree. This is a golden, and perhaps our only, opportunity y to stop Putin and remove the drag damage that all his corrupt little minions have successfully managed to do to weaken all western democracies. We were halfway in the garbage, and it’s past time to extricate ourselves permanently.
More severe sanctions are just the beginning.
sanjeevs
(1) David Frum on Twitter: “Ukraine newspapers cite Russian sources: Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu has disappeared from public view since March 11, reportedly with “heart problems.” https://t.co/00KXatWw2J” / Twitter
Who’s going to surface first – Shoigu or Clarence Thomas?
Ksmiami
@VeniceRiley: turn off Fox News permanently
Kelly
The former President of Estonia coined a new to me term “westsplaining”
https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1506692164616699910
Carlo Graziani
@Ksmiami:
Not sure whether I’m helping or not, but I’d like to at least attempt a constructive reframing.
We cannot change Russia. Any more than we could “democratize” Iraq, in fact infinitely less so. Please, let’s at least use our calamities to learn something about our limitations.
With luck, and finesse, and assistance to the right sort of politicians in Russia, and without expectations that those politicians start spouting Abraham Lincoln quotes, or even declare that they like us very much; AND without punitive sequelae to a hoped-for post- Putin era, and even, despite the horrific political problems that one can imagine will follow, FORGIVENESS — it might be possible to gradually start moving the needle of political development in Russia away from eternal grievance and defensive-offensive expansionism towards, finally, a more “normal” development, as we in the West understand — OK, fine “define” — the term “normal”.
Germany is “normal” now. It used to be a global menace. Ditto Japan. Admittedly, those cases were mediated through out-and-out conquest, which is simply not in the option set here. The point is that culture and people are plastic. One needs to find the right ways to address their shape. Encouraging them to shape themselves is slow, but more likely to succeed than coercion.
Calouste
@Ishiyama: A three year war along the current lines is unlikely, maybe even impossible. Russia has 2-3,000 casualties a week, their invasion force will be pretty much wiped out in a year, if that long, at this rate. Mass conscription to replace the losses goes against the “special military operation” narrative, and will upset the population that’s feeling the effects of the sanctions. It’s hard to fight a war with a populace that’s wondering what it is all good for.
There are some stories of Russian troops digging in, which might also cut down on the casualties, at least temporarily. But the front is stretched out at the moment, so Russia would have to give up some significant gains to create a defendable position.
Ksmiami
@sanjeevs: Shoigu- as in his body will surface from whatever freezing river he was thrown into…
Ksmiami
@Carlo Graziani: carrots and sticks, but we can’t allow Russia to continue as is
Ishiyama
@Calouste: And if the combatants hunker down in fixed positions, how does it end?
Jay
@Calouste:
one word today is that the Russians have been pushed back from the Kiev, ( hopefully spelled right) suburbs to 55 km from Kiev, where they are entrenching.
Jay
@Ishiyama:
requires supply, and contiguous lines, plus manpower to staff them.
Word is that Ukraine has secured the east flank of Kiev and completely flooded the west flank.
Chetan Murthy
@Ishiyama: I want to believe, we give the UA army enough standoff weapons, anti-air, and artillery, to (1) knock down RU’s air force & cruise missiles, (2) destroy all RU artillery, and (3) proceed to visit unholy hell on the RU men in those dug-in positions.
Calouste
@Jay: Kyiv, not Kiev.
Villago Delenda Est
The pro-Putin American “left” can all fuck off. This means Glemm, the Stein bint, all of rose Twitter. Shit, most of them should be stripped of their citizenship and if still in the US deported to the New White Homeland to freeze their asses off in Siberia.
VeniceRiley
Pavel Fuks sold his soul early and cheaply.
Per the article in Rolling Stone.
Cacti
Anonymous says they’ve hacked the Central Bank of Russia and obtained 35,000 files that will be released in next 48 hours.
I wonder if Glenn Greenwald’s name will pop up. Or Julian Assange. Or Matt Taibbi. Or Moscow Eddie Snowden.
Adam L Silverman
@Kelly: These people not only piss me off, but disgust me. I honestly do not understand how they got their positions at the think tanks they work for.
Cacti
Oops. Dupe post.
sanjeevs
@Adam L Silverman: Do you think the Ukranians have anything that can hit Russian warships?
Or can Russia do old style British gunboat diplomacy and shell Odesa to smithereens with almost no risk to themselves?
I know they still have some jets but since they only do 5-10 sorties per day I presume they stay well away from warships.
Dan B
@marcopolo: We could help and would like to help LGBTQ refugees. We have rooms but would like some assistance – Language, culture.
Culture may not be as important but homophobia may be.
sanjeevs
I guess my question just got answered
(1) OSINTdefender on Twitter: “From this Picture of the Fire at the Port of Berdyans’k, a Russian Naval Ship presumably a Alligator-Class Amphibious Landing Ship can be seen pretty clearly on Fire as well as Multiple other Pieces of Equipment on and near the Port. https://t.co/t52o4AJR40” / Twitter
gene108
@marcopolo:
Enough of the U.S. population is extremely xenophobic and very vocal. Resettling any refugees here will never be easy, because the people who are strongly opposed are very dug in, while most of the rest of us aren’t going to have the same intensity to get refugees resettled.
It’s a similar problem we face with guns, abortions, trans people’s rights, etc.
smike
@Cacti:
Or perhaps a few select politicians in our midst…
VeniceRiley
@sanjeevs: Ukraine is saying Orsk class ship. Looks like they won’t be resupplying Mariupol anytime soon.
Looks like quite the strike by Ukraine!
Martin
@gene108: It’s been done before. If the feds really want to do it, send them to California. We took care of a 100Kish Vietnamese refugees. My city has a decent sized Russian/Ukrainian population. LA has a few. Toss in housing money and I can’t imagine the state wouldn’t jump all over it.
Martin
@VeniceRiley: Christ Russia is bad at this.
Origuy
A Russian-American friend of mine posted this joke on Facebook:
HumboldtBlue
President Zelensky
VeniceRiley
@Martin: LoL “juicy targets” it was in Russia’s news!
https://twitter.com/bbcstever/status/1505814588767543297?s=21
oldster
@sstarr:
“I know that the images are hart rending….”
Here at Balloon Juice, the emotional appeals always come back to animal welfare.
oldster
Western ambitions should stop with expelling the Russian army from Ukraine, and creating a stronger bulwark on Russia’s western boundaries. If the UA, supported by NATO and other allies, can achieve that, it will be enough — it will be a miracle.
Any thoughts of a military push into Russia should be disavowed and ruled out loudly.
Much of Ukraine’s success has been due to their fighting a defensive war, on their territory, for their survival, against a dispirited army that does not know what it is fighting for. As soon as western forces cross the border, we abandon that advantage, and give it to the Russians. Even raw conscripts can gain motivation when their country is attacked and they are fighting on their own soil.
And that’s to say nothing of the nuclear issue. Where this particular punk is *not* feeling lucky enough to gamble that their silos are firing blanks.
Sloane Ranger
@dm: I don’t see why Ukrainian Airforce raids within Russia should be a problem. Russia invaded Ukraine. Surely Russian military bases or infrastructure, which are being used to support the invasion are legitimate military targets?
I suppose Russia could use this to claim this proves active NATO military involvement but
1. How would they know which planes were involved in the raid? and
2. They’d blame NATO anyway, regardless of the facts
Martin
So, looks like 3 ships involved in that. The Saratov is the Alligator class that is either sunk or sinking. At least one quite large explosion and evidence of ammunition cook-off. Alongside it were two other landing ships (Tsesar Kunikov and Novocherkassk) and both took damage and have at least some casualties. Both have sailed from port, so are seaworthy and will probably need at least some (if minimal) repair.
Reports it was a Ukrainian SRBM (short range ballistic missile) that hit, but I question that. Early photos show a fire, not an explosion. My guess would be mishandling of cargo. There are reports that a warehouse and a fuel tank are also on fire, but I haven’t seen any photos of that. If we’re lucky it’ll ANFO the port out of existence like happened in Lebanon.
Chetan Murthy
@Sloane Ranger: From what I’ve read, Russian SAM systems are sufficiently thick on the ground in RU and BY, that it’s not safe for UA to fly their planes there.
Martin
@oldster: There won’t be a military push into Russia. Ukraine might hit targets in Russia if they have the capability, but not push soldiers across the border.
Geminid
@Villago Delenda Est: Generally I agree with you about “Rose Twitter.” There is starting to be some separation among these folks on the Russian invasion, though.
The thoughtful Magdi Semrau observes these people and recently singled out a statement from the Stanislaus, California chapter of Democratic Socialists of America. The chapter rejected the mealy-mouthed formulations of the national organization in favor of a forthright defense of Ukraine’s right to self-determination and it’s access to weapons to defend itself. They are a dissident minority within the larger organization.
Semrau (aka Mangy Jay) has also seen pushback against the pro-Putin socialists on the part of the “anarchist” left.* Anarchists are deeply skeptical of the DSA and it’s allies, and consider them statists who, if given power, would impose their own form of tyranny on free people. The DSA’s implicit support of Russia’s attempt to subjugate Ukraine’s people is an opportunity for the anarchists to pound the socialists “from the left.” Semrau, a staunch Democrat with left sympathies, applauds these anarchists’ position on Ukraine, as well as that of the Stanislaus DSA chapter.
* These are not your great-great grandfather’s anarchists, lurking in shadows with bombs and trying to blow up princes or politicians. Rather, these anarchists want to transform society through voluntary collective action, with cooperatives and other “convivial” institutions.
MomSense
@Geminid:
So basically they had enough college political science to be dangerous. They don’t actually know what any of the terms mean.
lowtechcyclist
@Mallard Filmore:
Sounds like there’s a decent possibility that they may not.
Two problems: first, who’s ready to bet the future of the human race on it? Not me, even though I’m starting to doubt that the human race has much of a future, given our unwillingness to face up to global warming.
Second, suppose 5% of their nukes still work, despite having not been serviced since 1991. That would still be enough to fuck the world pretty damn thoroughly.
<a href=”#comment-8467836″ data-mce-fragment=”1″>@Ksmiami</a>:
Again, he has nukes, and some of them might work. Depends on how big a bet you want to place on him not using them, or their not working.
lowtechcyclist
@Carlo Graziani:
QFT.
Stephen
@Adam L Silverman: Palantir’s an interesting product.
Geminid
@MomSense: I haven’t really followed this particular group of anarchists. They seem non-violent, as opposed to some self-described “anarchists” who exploit BLM demonstrations as opportunities to break windows etc. They also are opposite to the DSA on the “libertarian” axis; I guess you could call them “left libertarian.” When Bernie Sanders says, “We don’t need fifty different kinds of salad dressing in grocery stores!” these anarchists might respond, “Get a life! And join a food co-op, or start one with your friends.”
Like Ms. Semrau, I thought them noteworthy because of their criticism of the DSA’s lousy Ukraine policy, from a different leftist perspective. I really dislike the DSA, for among other things it’s statism. That’s one thing I have in common with this particular strain of anarchist.
I was also a big fan of sociologist Ivan Illich, and an emphasis on collective but voluntary action reminds me of the “convivial institutions” Illich envisioned in his book Deschooling Society. Book clubs and food co-ops are “convivial institutions;” so is Balloon Juice.
Gin & Tonic
Ukraine is reporting they have destroyed a Russian warship in Berdyansk.
Gin & Tonic
@Gin & Tonic: I guess I should have read upthread a bit.
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
Alleged video from reddit
https://v.redd.it/scfdoi3j5ap81
Baud
@Geminid:
Anarchists need to rebrand. What a loaded name they chose.
Baud
@Geminid:
A Convivial Institution would make a good rotating tag.
oldster
@Gin & Tonic:
“Ukraine is reporting they have destroyed a Russian warship….”
I don’t know about destroyed, but between the massive fire-balls, mushroom clouds, and visible munitions shooting off in various directions, I would say it will need at least a new coat of paint.
lowtechcyclist
@Baud:
Hey, apparently even Jesus needs to rebrand. (Ain’t enough rolleyes in the world for that one.)
Geminid
@Baud: It’s sounds like they have a loose attachment to the label. Unsurprisingly, these anarchists are not especially organized. They appeal to other younger leftists with a more pragmatic approach to reforming society than the DSA’s diluted Marxism. And of course they fight these issues out with DSA types on Twitter.
The DSA’s position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reinterested me in their internal politics. There is a lot of stress there. Some controversies are longstanding; others, like that over the Ukraine war and the National Committee’s disbanding of the BDS Working Group, have blown up in the last month. I don’t know when their next convention is, but I suspect it’s gonna be like the Shootout at the OK Corral, with man-buns.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
Haha. “Catch Jesus on Twitch where he goes by the nym @Unkillable.”
Baud
@Geminid:
LOL. At least they aren’t hypocrites.
Geminid
@Baud: Have you read Ivan Ilyich? That’s the pen name for an ex-Catholic priest who wrote several interesting books in the 1960’s and 70’s. The most well-known was Deschooling Society.
Ilyich was a sociologist by training. Others described him as a “Radical Humanist.”
Baud
@Geminid:
I haven’t. I recall the Radical Humanists being a big bugaboo for the religious right.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid: Frankly, I’d almost never hear about any of these bozos at all if it weren’t for comments here at BJ.
(OK, I occasionally hear about DSA because of the role they play in the occasional Dem primary, but I think they’ve destroyed their cred outside their own membership for some time to come. At this point, I wouldn’t waste the least bit of emotional energy on the entire lot of them.)
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
I’m the same. I think what we see here is spillover from Twitter.
lowtechcyclist
@Baud: Nah, it was the secular humanists that were a religious right bogeyman awhile back. Though I’m sure there was plenty of overlap.
lowtechcyclist
Hell, I spend a lot of time on Twitter, and I don’t see them there either. Of course, the way I use Twitter is rather non-standard, but still, the places I go there are broadly left-of-center.
But I guess if you do hang out in the parts of Twitter where they spend their time, it can seem like they’re more significant than they are.
Ken
“We call ourselves Republicans now.”
Not completely a joke — a few years ago, one of the anarchist groups announced that they were disbanding, because the Republicans were doing a much better job at destroying the government. I never did figure out if that was like the Satanic Temple’s trolling-with-a-purpose.
Ken
@lowtechcyclist: IIRC, that was because there was some court ruling that included “secular humanism” in a list of religions, or at least religion-adjacent belief systems. So the creationists and their ilk saw it as a way to block the teaching of evolution and other “secular” subjects, on the grounds that it was promoting a particular religion.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: DSA members were instrumental in Representative Ocasio-Cortez’s primary victory over Joe Crowley in June, 2018. The Justice Democrats who sponsored Ocasio-Cortez provided fundraising support, but it was the 5,000 New York DSA members who did much of the door to door canvassing that won her 17,000 votes to Crowley’s 14,000.*
Most if not all of the “Squad” are DSA members. There is controversy within the DSA about this strategy of supporting candidates for the Democratic party. Some say that the working class can never win power though an essentially bourgeois, capitalist party.
Also, Israel and it’s treatment of Palestinians is a very salient issue for the DSA. Their National Commitee’s recent disbanding of the BDS Working Group created alot of hard feelings. The controversy arose from the National Commitee’s refusal to expel New York Representative Jamaal Bowman from the party over his vote to fund Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system.
*This was a low turnout primary. By contrast, that same month Abigail Spanberger won the Virginia 7th District Congressional primary with 35,000 votes, and the runner up had 20,000. Spanberger went on to flip a seat that Republicans had held since the 1970’s.
Adam L Silverman
@Stephen: Every single bit of data put into Palantir so it can run its analyses for the end user winds up back in the company’s databases. All that happens when you use one of these Thiel owned or financed systems – Palantir, Clearview AI, Anduril’s drones, etc – is provide Thiel with data on everyone and/or anything.
Adam L Silverman
@sanjeevs: Last week the Ukrainians used an anti-tank missile on the Russian warship. They used an anti-ship missile on a tank in central Ukraine. They’re making it work.
Adam L Silverman
@oldster: That’ll buff right out…
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: I am most definitely not convivial.
Baud
More reddit video of Russian ship
https://v.redd.it/753yupb8hbp81
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: I generally don’t hang out on the part of Twitter where DSA types hang out. I do follow staunch Democrats, Ragnarok Lobster, Rugged Amethyst, and AGrayBee among others. They bring up DSA tweets in order to crush them with sarcasm.
The DSA is fairly insignificant nationally. The only thing I’ve seen them do in Central Virginia is hold events where they inspect peoples’ cars and supply replacement light bulbs, etc. so cops won’t harrass drivers. In the New York metropolitan area, they are more of a force, running viable Democratic primary candidates for local and state office. I hear that the DSA is also strong in the Pacific Northwest.
lee
@Fair Economist:
I agree with the idea. Unless Ukraine falls apart or Russia finds another 500k troops and equipment, this is going to be a failed war for Putin. What is Putin going to do once he realizes he has failed? That is the question we should be asking.
lee
To answer some questions:
Ukraine has Neptune Missiles
We don’t know what/who struck the Russian ship in harbor. It could have been UA forces, UA missiles or even RU deserters. There are secondary explosions that indicate it was not an empty ship.
Nutmeg again
Amazing Post, thank you!
I would like to add a crumb: for those interested in the deeper (well, ok) history of the ups and downs of Poland and the Polish military, I suggest reading Tim Snyder’s incredible book, Bloodlands: Europe between Hitler and Stalin. And for what happened after “the war” as it was known in my house growing up, Tony Judt’s book, Postwar: A history of Europe since 1945 gives and invaluable understanding of how the pieces shifted around beyond Checkpoint Charlie.
Kelly
It had to be a farmer
Origuy
@Kelly: An old lady in a rowboat threw a Molotov cocktail at it.