(Image found here)
President Biden gave an excellent speech today in Warsaw. Here’s the video:
For those that would rather read it, here’s a link to the transcript.
Everyone, of course, decided to see and hear something else in the speech. Largely around the President’s off the cuff remark: “For God’s sake this man cannot remain in power.” The White House quickly walked the ad lib back.
A White House official said Biden’s remarks did not represent a shift in Washington’s policy.
“The President’s point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbours or the region,” the official said. “He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change.”
The Kremlin was not thrilled with the speech, which should come as no surprise to anyone.
The Kremlin dismissed a remark by U.S. President Joe Biden on Saturday that Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power,” saying it was up to Russians to choose their own president.
Asked about Biden’s comment, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters: “That’s not for Biden to decide. The president of Russia is elected by Russians.”
The Kremlin was not the only audience that had issues with either this specific ad lib or the speech as a whole. A considerable amount of the US foreign and nat-sec commentariat on social media is not amused and/or concerned (not a representative sample at the links).
Responses from Ukrainians were also mixed.
Biden's speech in Warsaw doesn't seem to have instilled much confidence in Ukrainians. I've seen and heard several comments similar to this one from Inna, who is a member of Ukraine's parliament. https://t.co/2tLka5tHXH
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 26, 2022
Daria is one of Ukraine’s most prominent anti-corruption activists and researchers. https://t.co/1JqGiXaOWg
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 26, 2022
I think it was an excellent speech even with or despite the ad lib. President Biden is Joe Biden. What you see is what you get. And part of what you get is a man who has survived tragedies that would have broken many other people and, as a result, has an internal store of empathy and righteous rage that, like a Tardis, is clearly bigger on the inside. And today’s speech was a demonstration of both of those sentiments direct from the Biden Private Reserve. However, at the end of the day Ukrainians are the ones doing the fighting and the dying. Ukrainians are the ones watching their cities and their towns be bombarded into dust. Ukrainians are the ones wondering what is happening to their relatives and friends in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine that are besieged or occupied by the Russians, who are cut off, starving, and facing forced deportation and relocation.
It is from this reality that President Zelenskyy’s very clear frustration is coming from:
Zelensky: If Ukraine doesn’t receive planes, Russia could threaten neighbors. President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a video conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda, stated that he was disappointed that Ukraine had not received Polish MiG-29 jets.
Zelensky: Impossible to save Mariupol without additional tanks, planes. “Ukraine cannot shoot down Russian missiles with shotguns and machine guns,” the president said during his latest address. 1/2
He added that Ukraine is waiting too long for the required weapons. “Who is leading the Euro-Atlantic community? Is it still Moscow through intimidation?” Zelensky added. 2/2
As well as the current member of the Ukrainian parliament, the former minister, and the head of a Ukrainian anti-corruption NGO that Christopher Miller spotlighted above.
As I keep writing, this is a war, not a trade negotiation. And for the Ukrainians it is an existential war. Ukraine gets to define its needs, not the US or NATO. All the US and NATO get to do is determine which of those needs it will fill and which it won’t. Hopefully with a very good explanation justifying the decision. Ukraine gets to define what terms it will seek in negotiations, whether immediate ones to achieve humanitarian cease fires or the ones that will eventually come when the war is over, not the US and NATO. If we’re not going to assume the risk and actually join the fight, then we don’t get the privilege of dictating terms to the Ukrainians.
More after the jump.
As President Biden was giving his remarks in Poland, Russia decided to note the occasion by shelling Lviv, which is in western Ukraine and only 43.5 miles to the Polish border.
⚡️Lviv Mayor: Lviv attacked.
Andriy Sadovyi said that Lviv was hit following reports about explosions. Lviv Oblast Governor Maksym Kozytskyi said that 3 loud explosions were heard near Lviv, from the east. Sadovyi warned that more strikes may be coming.
Video: tplviv/Telegram pic.twitter.com/7ju5ux8N6d
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 26, 2022
The missiles have been reported as being fired from Russian occupied Sevastopol in Crimea.
❗❗❗ WARNING
Russian army fired again at a nuclear research facility in Kharkiv"It is currently impossible to estimate the extent of damage due to hostilities that do not stop in the area of the nuclear installation," — State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate.
— Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine – Ukrainian Parliament (@ua_parliament) March 26, 2022
That’s not good! Additionally, Russian forces were able to advance into and occupy Slavutych, which is the town where the Chornobyl evacuees were relocated too and where many of the workers who keep the Chornobyl complex functioning safely live. They also temporarily kidnapped Slavutych’s mayor, but he escaped or was freed.
I’m beginning to think the announcement of Russia’s shift to Phase 2 focusing on Donetsk, Luhansk, and other portions of eastern and southern Ukraine might not have been reliable…
Avdiivka:
The Ukrainian lieutenant told me his positions are being pounded by Russian artillery 14 hours a day. As a result, 13 Ukrainian troops were wounded today alone, he said. “I don't know how much time we can hold on…” he said, asking that I show these pictures & say they need help.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 26, 2022
More evidence of Russia’s use of white phosphorus. Just like in Syria.
Sumy:
The entire neighbourhood of the Eastern Ukrainian city of Sumy was destroyed. This is what Russian “kiss of love” looks like. The aircraft bomb killed 24 including 4 children…We will win the war.We will rebuild our cities. But we will never forget.Never. #StopRussianAggression pic.twitter.com/6DdWiGaohd
— Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (@s_vakarchuk) March 26, 2022
Chernihiv:
The mayor added that Chernihiv is currently in an operational encirclement , and that the russians deliberately destroyed the bridge connecting the city with Kyiv direction.
— Margo Gontar (@MargoGontar) March 26, 2022
Mariupol:
It is not clear how many people were deported. There were about 700 people in the hospital.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 26, 2022
From The EuroMaidan Press:
Nadiya was hiding in the theater basement with her daughter, son-in-law, grandson and elderly grandmother. Here is her eyewitness account of what she and her family witnessed that day.
-We lived in the Eastern District of Mariupol. On 25 February, our entire family decided to leave. A little later, all the residents left. We moved to the 23rd District.
On 8 March, we awoke to a series of loud noises and explosions. Then, something exploded behind the neighbouring building and we heard crashing sounds. Suddenly, something hit our building and the balcony disappeared.
It must have hit the eighth or ninth floor. Three fire trucks arrived at 4:00 pm. They began extinguishing the fire, and then abandoned their efforts. They had very little water, so it was useless to try to stop the fire from spreading. They helped evacuate the elderly and children. We told our grandson and grandmother to leave and take shelter elsewhere. Finally, armoured vehicles arrived to transport the people to safety.
My son-in-law didn’t want to leave, so we decided to stay. Many people were leaving. Only our family and some neighbours on the fifth floor were left in our building. At 8:30 pm, a man told us there would be fighting nearby, that our building would come under heavy fire, and that we should leave as no one could guarantee our safety.
Finally, my daughter and I persuaded my son-in-law to leave. It was past curfew when they brought us to the theater.
We couldn’t find our grandson and grandmother. My daughter and son-in-law ran around searching for them, but couldn’t find them anywhere. You can imagine what state they were in! In the end, they found them and brought them to the theater. We were finally together.
There were a lot of people in the theater. We settled on the third floor of the left wing. There were many people in the corridors, all over the place.
It was crowded everywhere. People were packed like sardines in the basement. There was just nowhere else to go.
We arrived at the theater on 8 March. We spent the night standing. There was nowhere to lie down. Even though there was a parquet floor in the room, it was very cold. The room was large, and it cooled very quickly.
The next day, all of us, together with the volunteers, began boarding up the windows with plywood. It wouldn’t protect us from an explosion, but at least no one would be injured by shattered glass.
The volunteers made life a little easier. They had a field kitchen near the back entrance and cooked something every day. For breakfast, we drank warm boiled water; some people had tea bags, but most of us had nothing. For lunch, the volunteers cooked a kind of broth. For dinner, they handed out hot water again and, if possible, some cookies, especially to children. No one would die of hunger, they said.
The volunteers were just fantastic! There was one young girl who helped everyone. Little Nastya was about 14 or 15 years old.
We took food from a nearby store. It’s embarrassing to talk about it, but it’s true. I understand that it was wrong and I didn’t want to do that. But then, when I realized how many people could be saved, I understood that saving a life was much more important.
Two days before the shelling started, the volunteers counted the number of people in the theater – about 1,200, but I believe there were more. In fact, they transported all the pregnant women to the theater from the maternity hospital. It was bombed, and they brought all the pregnant women and mothers with newborns here.I don’t know exactly how many there were. I saw three women with infants. But, they settled in the dressing rooms. We didn’t go to that side of the theater; it’s the right wing. But, I know that someone gave birth during the night.
The volunteers placed the pregnant women in the dressing rooms, because they thought it was better and warmer there. Sadly, it turned out quite differently…
We became friends with a family that had a place in the basement shelter. But, they decided to leave Mariupol just before the bombing. Before their departure, they told us to take their place in the basement. It was simply impossible to get a place there any other way. So, on the eve of the bombing, we managed to move from the third floor to the basement shelter.
On the morning of 16 March, the Russians dropped a heavy bomb on the theater. It was about 9:45 am.People in nearby buildings saw a bright flash, a ball of fire, and an explosion. It was a heavy bomb. It was simply terrifying!
The bomb hit the back side of the theater. It fell obliquely, passing through the right wing to the rear of the theater.
The people in the front area of the theater and in the basement survived. These basements were built in soviet times to shelter the population in the event of war.
Unfortunately, all the people in the back area and in the right wing were killed on the spot.
The dressing rooms accommodating the pregnant women were located in the right wing of the theater… Nobody survived.
How many people died? I don’t know. It’s very hard for me to say. You see, it was morning, and people were lining up for water. There were about 100 people in this queue. The bomb landed there.
My daughter and son-in-law were about to get their water. But suddenly, my son-in-law bent down to tie his shoelaces, and this minute saved their lives. He was on his knees, tying his shoelaces, when the bomb hit the building. The blast wave literally threw him up into the air. Sorry for the details, but we were covered in debris and concrete dust. But, the walls held.
We began making our way out. All the people sheltering in the basement managed to get out. The exits weren’t blocked and everyone was able to leave the building.
There was chaos and blood everywhere. People were screaming and crying; some were hysterical. I, too, was in hysterics. Next to us in the basement lay a young, curly-haired boy. I don’t remember his name. His dad was in the field kitchen when the bomb hit. Everyone was killed. The little boy went into hysterics. I grabbed him by the shoulders, shook him hard and shouted:
“Your father is dead! You must live! You should live… for him!”
To tell the truth, I was in a trance. I saw a girl helping the wounded, and I thought that I could also help out. I applied bandages, but I don’t remember the people that helped. Everything was covered in fog. I only remember someone’s leg, an open wound on someone’s calf, the calf muscles hanging from the open wound, but held in place at the very bottom of the leg, near the ankle joint. And no antiseptic, you understand!? So, I mechanically tied the hanging muscle to the bone.
No bandages. We tore everything that we found into strips and twisted them tightly around the open wounds. I remember some men tearing a blanket into long strips, which I used to bandage someone’s hands and feet. I helped about eight people. But, during those moments, I felt very distressed and agitated… for the life of me, I really can’t remember who these people were. You know, I’m very strong, very resilient, but my brain felt totally blocked.
Nadiya can’t say how many people died that morning at the theater. She maintains that everyone in the basement survived. But, it’s hard to say how many people were actually there. The people who had settled in the front area of the theater also survived.Everyone else was killed.
Nadiya’s daughter, Natalia, provides more specific details. She claims that there were no more than 400 people in the basements that day.
-I’m pretty sure that there were no more than 400 people in the basement. Several hundred were in the front area of the theater.
I think that about 100 people died during the air strike – all the volunteers and the people who were near the field kitchen waiting for their hot water. The others, in the right wing of the building, died under the rubble, because there was no one to help them out. I think that would be about 200 more people, maybe more.
Much, much more at the link above!
The Russians managed to blow up another Holocaust memorial.
According to Ukrainian sources, Drobytsky Yar memorial site near Kharkiv was damaged today by artillery shelling.
I visited Drobytsky Yar, a place where 20,000 Jews were killed by the Nazis during 1941-42, a couple of months ago. pic.twitter.com/vUeu0JQmnz— Michael Brodsky (@michael_brodsk) March 26, 2022
Brodsky is Israel’s ambassador to Ukraine. Maybe if this bothers him so much he can get his government to get the stick out and do something useful?
Twenty years ago, before she was an ambassador or the Director of USAID, Samantha Power published a book with the central premise that there was a responsibility to protect. This was short handed as R2P. The concept of responsibility to protect is that the US has an obligation to protect people, societies, and states that are under threat anywhere in the world. Especially to prevent genocide. Power’s argument was then and is now one where morals and national values drive national interests. In light of that, I wonder what was going through her thoughts at this meeting:
Today I've asked @PowerUSAID to pass this teddy bear to @POTUS, whom we are begging for air defence weapon. Many children who are suffering from bombs & missiles in Ukraine keep their special toy as a symbol of protection. The bear has a recorded voice message to the world? pic.twitter.com/KjaJI3XWE7
— Daria Kaleniuk (@dkaleniuk) March 26, 2022
- I’m a toy bear. I should just bring joy to children in ordinary life. Now my mission is to speak for the children who were killed or injured by the war that russia has started in Ukraine.
- The voice you have just heard belongs to Milana. She is six years old. On February 28, she was at home near the town of Hostomel in the Kyiv region, with her parents, and her brother.
- Suddenly, the air was torn apart by the sound of an explosion. That was a rocket hitting a neighbor’s house. The family tried to hide quickly but did not have time. Within a minute, another missile exploded right in their room.
- Milana’s mother died on the spot. In front of her children and husband. Fragments of the missile have torn Milana’s foot. Now she is in hospital, where doctors care about her. She is constantly hugging her teddy bear named Persyk and is drawing hearts on which she writes “mom”.
- Even a plush toy’s heart feels broken. And what does yours feel? Whoever you are, do everything you can. On behalf of Ukrainian children. Stop this war.
Yesterday VeniceRiley, who may or may not be from Venice and/or named Riley – we have top guys, top guys!!!! working to confirm or deny that… – asked if I’d give this article at DailyKos a look and provide my thoughts. My bottom line up front (BLUF) is that it feels accurate. I’m not thrilled with an pseudonymous post quoting an anonymous friend, the latter of whom relies far too much on Wikipedia entries to make or explain their points. That said, the theft, at all levels, is an accurate assessment and we’ve seen plenty of documentation of it. I can’t really speak to the ethno-national factionalism referenced, but it would not surprise me. I know someone from what was then Soviet Azerbaijan who was forcefully conscripted into the Soviet Army and sent to Afghanistan where, because he spoke Farsi, which allowed him to quickly pick up the Afghan dialect of it (Dari), led his superiors to turn him from a low level conscript in a tank unit into a terp (interpreter). Based on some things he’s described, which all have to be taken with an Adam sized grain of salt as he is a congenital liar, the ethno-national factionalism also scans as accurate. Don’t know if that really answered the question, but that’s what I got.
I couldn’t find any new bayraktar footage, so you’ll just have to survive until some is posted somewhere.
Finally, this is a long thread by Slava Malamud. As Charlie Pierce likes to write: Slava talk, you listen!
One man?
Hardly. The longing for the Soviet past is not a phenomenon confined to the deranged cranium of Vladimir Putin. He'd never be able to maintain power if this delusion wasn't giddily shared by a huge number of ?? citizens.
Even those who describe themselves as liberals… https://t.co/oX2JEjg8mc— Slava Malamud ?? (@SlavaMalamud) March 23, 2022
There’s 25 tweets in that thread. With some links and some images/screen grabs. So click across and give it a read.
Open thread!
Jerzy Russian
Thanks for the post. There is a lot to read and digest.
Unrelated, but the word “Polish” is probably the only word in English where the pronunciation changes when the word is capitalized.
Jerzy Russian
Agreed. Joe Biden is a better man than I will ever be. He had suffered more tragedies by the time he was 30 than my whole family has had in twice the amount of time. I am glad he is the President now. If he came up to me and said “Jerzy, I want you to set your hair on fire.” My response would, be “all of it, or just the hair on my head?”
Old Dan and Little Ann
That theater story is devastating.
Gin & Tonic
My oldest friend in Lviv said those missiles hit 800m from his home. He’s been living at work and goes home to shower.
Tom Levenson
So it seems like the most significant contribution ordinary American citizens can make at this point is to call our rep. and senators and urge them to urge the White House to be as aggressive as possible in supplying Ukraine with the weapons it requests.
(This is in addition to, not in place of supporting relief efforts, of course.)
Or am I missing something?
JoyceH
I can’t get over the way the media is portraying Biden’s ‘ad lib’. I’m sorry, but just because something wasn’t in the written remarks loaded into the teleprompter and distributed to the press does NOT mean that it wasn’t scripted to a fare-thee-well. Biden is NOT Trump. He doesn’t just blurt things out haphazard. I can almost guarantee that was scripted and debated and discussed back and forth among Biden, his speech writers, and his foreign policy and national security staff and the DECISION was made to not write it down but insert it as an ‘ad lib’ at the end of the speech. That’s how it’s done in a competent, adult administration. The ‘walk-back’ was probably carefully scripted in advance too. The purpose was to make the point, WE are not going to depose a foreign head of state, but if his NATION wants to be accepted again into the civilized community of nations, with all the commerce and prosperity that goes with that, well, they know what to do.
The Moar You Know
The Russians have taken it on themselves to select OUR leaders. I have no problem with us returning the favor.
Kalakal
That set of tweets by Malamud rings horribly true. And it sounds like the West needs to really up it’s game with weapons supply.
I do hope that elements of the UA have been training on heavy NATO weaponry ever since Weatern intelligence (which seems to have done a real number on the Russians) decided that war was coming.
Once again Adam. thanks for your hard work and analysis
Omnes Omnibus
@JoyceH:
Yes, we have had this fight a couple of threads below. I do not believe that the comment was an ad lib. It was deliberate and planned as was the diplo-speak walk back.
Martin
Looks like Ukraine is making steady progress NW of Kyiv and to the south Kherson is now reported as being contested, and no longer under Russian control. Mykolayiv apparently isn’t yet fully under Ukrainian control, but Russian forces aren’t pressing forward on it, so that seems just a matter of time assuming nothing else changes. Assume the goal here for Ukraine is to push down to Crimea and at least require Russia expend energy there.
Adam,
I’m assuming that if Russia decides to consolidate around the two eastern oblasts and Crimea (and maybe the coastal bridge between them) then Russia starts to get some of the defensive benefits and Ukraine will probably start having a harder time. As bad as Russia’s supply chain seems to be, at least it won’t be chasing an advancing front, etc.
Villago Delenda Est
Naturally, the moron talking heads of the Village will be all over this tomorrow, further demonstrating their inclination towards manly man Vlad.
debbie
Thanks, Adam.
I’m surprised the media hasn’t made more of Russia’s declaration to focus on eastern Ukraine, only to turn right around and bomb western Ukraine.
JoyceH
@Omnes Omnibus:
Oh, sorry, I missed that. Did the discussion also cover the fact that national television pundits are acting like they just fell off the turnip truck?
Dan B
@debbie: You expect the media can take one statement and compare it to actions that are the opposite?
I’m shocked, truly shocked!!!!
//s
And JoyceH puts it quite succinctly.
zhena gogolia
@debbie: They can’t miss an opportunity to dump on Biden!
Ksmiami
Writing to whitehouse and ppl to send planes, drones, missiles and moar to Ukraine. Fuck Putin and his supporters. Bury them.
piratedan
@JoyceH: a brief reminder, if it was Trump… saying things like NATO has to pay their fair share and that Ukraine has to give up dirt on a political opponent and that all is noted as being just part of being President, but hey saying that we want to take out a tyrant who’s instigated a war and killings displacing millions of people is somehow a bridge too far…. for a Democrat.
Martin
I’m pretty pleased with the immediate plan to boost natural gas production to help Europe get off of Russian pipelines. Canada as well.
That said, we and the EU need to take a war footing to decarbonize. It doesn’t need to be the full monty, but a pretty good immediate goal would be to offset Russia’s export production. Just take their demand away from the planet, entirely. Now you can stand on a solid footing to maintain the sanctions without necessarily imposing a price burden on the public. Not easy, I don’t think you could do it inside a year without some pretty solid conservation efforts with the public, but it needs to happen anyway, so why not just stomp on the proverbial gas here?
NotMax
@zhena gogolia
Can almost hear C. Todd now.
“Is the Russia-Ukraine brouhaha Biden’s Katrina?”
//
Ruckus
Adam
I’m beginning to think the announcement of Russia’s shift to Phase 2 focusing on Donetsk, Luhansk, and other portions of eastern and southern Ukraine might not have been reliable…
Has vlad ever said anything that’s reliable?
I know what we should do. But I also know what is realistic, given world politics as they currently exist. But possibly we could actually do more than we are?
NotMax
@Martin
Shipping in LNG is the easy part. Reception ports lacking facilities to de-liquefy it and pipelines to transport it a whole’ ‘nother ball of wax.
Booger
Hey Adam, thanks for the amazing work, as always.
Is there any sense that there will ever be a Russian ‘Marshall Plan’ to help fold the festering ruins of that once okay country into the civilized, modern world rather than leave it to fester in perpetuity?
Dan B
@Martin: Friends just sent me a long series of article about all the steps European countries are taking to get off fossil fuels and that big banks and reinsurance companies are demanding. It’s not headline material but it is very encouraging.
Ruckus
@JoyceH:
Did the discussion also cover the fact that national television pundits are acting like they just fell off the turnip truck?
That is not in any way, acting. Except it wasn’t a turnip truck. It was a pig muck truck.
Dan B
@Ruckus: Turnips are offended!
My apologies.
Martin
This seemed just like common sense to me, so maybe it doesn’t to to others.
Russia presumably wants to focus on holding ground in the east because they presumably do not intend to give it up. But that doesn’t mean they don’t intend to fight in the west. In fact, and Adam can correct me here, that by concentrating on holding the ground in the east, it will probably free up their longer range weapons to increase their ability to target the supply lines coming into Ukraine, the foreign fighters training in the west, etc.
NotMax
@Dan B
Just fell off the durian truck?
:)
Jay
H.E.Wolf
tangier/Tangier
moped/Moped
Steeplejack
@Tom Levenson:
The link in your nym is screwed up.
Ked
I might have had a slight meltdown on Twitter this afternoon in the direction of a Pentagon correspondent for a notionally neutral news agency who couldn’t let go of the idea that the (probably) unscripted remark was the worst thing ever and how will we ever convince Putin that we don’t mean it???
And the thing is, Biden isn’t stupid even if I think he does blurt things out from time to time. He knows that Putin is his personal, professional, and national enemy. It’s a mistake to say that Putin created Trump, but he surely delivered a couple million votes for the Big Orange One (and that first impeachment sure seems even more relevant now, even though it’s apparently considered gauche for the media to talk about it). Putin has done everything he could short of assassination to directly cripple sane, adult leadership in the US. And now he’s shown that he’s an enemy of all postwar Western international norms.
So yes, Biden’s preferred endgame is that Putin goes away. …yes, declaring this without any clear direct path to that result makes direct engagement with Russia more difficult in the meantime, but it was already mostly impossible anyway. And Ukraine is the power who needs to make that negotiation regardless.
And Putin isn’t stupid, he knows this. Or he should, as he’s responsible for most of it. Just like he knows that NATO isn’t about to invade.
But somehow this is some horrible gaff which has to be “walked back”, and isn’t Biden just the most awful president for saying something so impolitic. Goddamn, I am just DONE with the poisoned well of US media.
Villago Delenda Est
@JoyceH: They did not fall off the turnip truck. They are GQp operatives.
wetzel
I believe Biden’s statement “For God’s sake this man cannot remain in power” served two purposes. Firstly, it’s appropriate for the American President to make it plain that when it comes to removing sanctions in the future, it can’t be Putin our government is dealing with diplomatically.
Mainly though, I believe this is another example of Biden’s team getting out ahead of Putin’s brinksmanship. Everybody was worried about all these Russians giving excuse to having go nuclear in case of ‘existential threat’ and Putin’s got us all worried he’s schizophrenic and identifying personally, so Biden has called his bluff, and said, yes, Putin, you are under existential threat. And Putin does nothing. When will later qualify now? He can stamp his feet!!!! It’s genius. It’s the same play they ran before the invasion. They ran it again. They sucked the air right out of them. Existential threat. We’re here!!! Nothing’s happening!!! Biden made all the clucking fear unnecessary and unworthy. His team is on point, I think. This was a good job.
Ked
@H.E.Wolf:
Point of order – “moped” (the personal vehicle) is not a proper noun and thus not capitalized. Which of course makes it even worse because “moped” and “moped” have different pronunciations with only context to derive which is correct.
Villago Delenda Est
@NotMax: Chuckles the Toddler is nearly as much of a Putin asset as Fuckyo Rose is.
Roger Moore
@Martin:
Russia’s supply chain to Crimea is going to be dodgy unless they can consolidate that corridor. The whole reason they’re trying to establish it is because they can’t count on their ability to supply Crimea by sea; they need to have a connection through southern Ukraine. IIRC, the need for water is a key concern.
This is an asymmetric situation as far as that corridor is concerned. Russia needs solid control of the whole thing for it to do them any good, while Ukraine only needs to deny them control anywhere along it. If Ukraine can maintain a hold anywhere along that corridor, it makes an attack on Crimea much easier.
CaseyL
Besides all the takes everyone else has stated over Biden saying what is, or should be, plainly clear to anyone with two functioning brain cells, I wonder whether the comment was also aimed at people within Putin’s power structure. Making it clear how much Putin is to blame for all of the shit raining down on Russia (which isn’t exactly true, but is mostly true), and leading people within the power structure to think “Maybe no Putin, no problems.”
Achrachno
“I’m not thrilled with an pseudonymous post quoting an anonymous friend, the latter of whom relies far too much on Wikipedia entries to make or explain their points. ”
Personally I’m to a point where I consider all reports of Russian atrocities to be true until proven otherwise. I don’t care if the reports are 1st hand or 3rd hand. Based on what we’ve seen in the last month, Putin’s crew does not get the benefit of the doubt nor much presumption of innocence.
phdesmond
@NotMax:
if European ports and plants to handle LNG aren’t already working 24 hours a day, perhaps there’s some chance of increasing their capacity. i certainly don’t know the facts.
SectionH
@JoyceH: ??
wetzel
@wetzel: By making his ‘existential threat’ a gaffe, it both did and did not happen, so we’re in the state where Putin is under existential threat, but we’re not, actually. It was a gaffe. What you gonna do, Vladimir, launch the nukes over an old man’s gaffe? But you know you are under existential threat, now that you mention it, Vladimir. We all know it now. So there’s no brink you can push us up to. We’re already there. No we’re not! It was a gaffe! It’s genius.
Achrachno
@Villago Delenda Est: Well yeah, but not as much as the average Republican senator.
Kalakal
@Roger Moore: Totally agree about the South.
The forces in the North West are not in happy circumstances either. They’ve been stalled out for at least 2 weeks while under constant attack, in a miserable supply situation, and in danger of encirclement. A withdrawal under those circumstances would be tough for any army, trying it with a bunch of ill led conscripts with morale in their boots courts disaster. They really seem to be out on a limb.
SiubhanDuinne
@Ked:
Not unlike “unionized” and “unionized.”
Martin
@NotMax: Yeah, I know. That’s why I think the decarbonization needs to be a front and center because that allows you to avoid building as many of those ports.
That’s basically California’s plan to get through the 70s and 80s rapid growth – implement policies to get the public to conserve so we didn’t need to build power generation as quickly as growth forecasts demanded. We still needed to build, just not as much.
Roger Moore
@Ruckus:
My gut feeling is that we need to do more quantitatively, but it’s much harder to say we should do more qualitatively. IOW, we should do more by doing the same kinds of things but better rather than trying to do more by doing new kinds of things that might cause problems.
Jerzy Russian
@H.E.Wolf: Regarding tangier/Tangier, they are indeed pronounced differently. However, Tangier is a proper name, whereas “Polish” has an English definition, namely “relating to Poland, its inhabitants, or their language”. As noted earlier, “moped” can be the past tense of “mope” or it can be a “low-power, lightweight motorized bicycle”. The pronunciations are different because of the meaning, not because of the first letter being “m” or “M”.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: I’ve seen some reporting that their supply lines in the south and east aren’t any better and may actually be worse than in the north.
Ruckus
@CaseyL:
The entire Russian situation is going to be shit for a while. If vlad stays in power it will only get worse. If vlad is removed, (no matter how) there will be a vacuum that will likely not be a lot better because there is not a regular term or replacement function, like most countries have so there isn’t a real replacement concept. And who is going to take the chance to replace vlad anyway? Loyalty is built up over time, even if it is loyalty for a good reason or for selfish reasons and that can bring on problems. See Jan 6. It likely, IMO, will be better in Russia than it was here. But then the people in Russia get lied to so often and so offensively they might not understand it was an inside job. I think the best way is for all countries to support Ukraine with every need possible so they can kick vlad’s ass to the moon and leave him with a pile of rubble for an army.
Redshift
@Martin:
Or another example is the Carter Administration policies for efficiency and conservation – even with the Reagan Administration trying to trash them, our national energy consumption didn’t rise above 1978 levels until the early 90s.
Roger Moore
@Kalakal:
Yeah, it seems to me that the forces in the North are in real trouble at least in part because nobody wants to be the one to admit the offensive has stalled. I think that’s what the announcement yesterday was really about. They’re giving an excuse for why it’s OK to switch to the tactical defensive and give up some of their territorial gains to get a more defensible line.
Adam L Silverman
@Ruckus: There are always more things that can be done.
Adam L Silverman
@Booger: There needs to be.
Stuart Frasier
@Martin: Californians use about the same amount of electricity per capita as they did in the 1970s, while the rest of the country doubled consumption. All while having one of the most dynamic economies. It really is an amazing success story.
Jerzy Russian
@SiubhanDuinne:
It took me a while to get that one. It has been that kind of night. Huge head/neck pain, just killing time before I go to bed (I don’t want to go to bed now because I will wake up too early in the morning and screw up my sleep cycle).
Villago Delenda Est
@Redshift: That motherfucker Reagan lost us 40 years of energy independence/green energy technology. All because the big babies of big awl didn’t want to have to change anything.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
Oh I agree. It would be good to give them every thing they need but a lot of that stuff takes training and that time is really not available. I sure don’t know what they might be able to use, other than Javelin and Stingers and it seems they could use a few more of those drones but those seem to do a lot in both ground and air defense. But Russia has air superiority even if just in shear numbers and Ukraine needs more planes and support.
SectionH
@JoyceH: ?? may be repeating that. Can’t hurt.
@The Moar You Know: I have intellectual caveats, but your comment cheered me up anyway.
@Martin: well, dual, triple purpose then. (I’m pretty sure a lot of Western European countries are very serious about renewal energy goals which exceed even ours here in CA. But the news from Antartica yesterday/today was… grim.)
Calouste
The Greater Russian Empire is starting to fray at the edges:
Redshift
@debbie:
I’ve seen it get a fair amount of attention today, but then, I’m mostly watching BBC, not American news.
It does seem bizarre to me how widely the statement was reported as a genuine expression of intent. I’m addition to the normal skepticism of wartime propaganda/disinformation and how commonplace Russian lying has been, nearly every other part of that statement was an obvious lie, so why would you think that one part was true?
Roger Moore
@Ruckus:
A bit off topic, but this seems like a pretty good definition of the distinction between an actual democracy and an authoritarian government that maintains the fiction of being democratic. On paper, Russia is a democracy and has regular procedures for replacing the president if he dies or is incapacitated. In practice, all that stuff is a sham and nobody believes the procedure would be followed. Instead, there would be a power vacuum, and whoever managed to come out on top of the struggle to fill it would find some convenient excuse for why they were in charge, or they’d make whoever is nominally the replacement into their puppet, or they’d just throw the whole system out and write a new constitution.
James E Powell
@Omnes Omnibus:
For what it’s worth, I agree completely. This was not a errant remark or a misstatement. He meant it.
SectionH
@SectionH: renewal – sb renewable. buggrit…
Chetan Murthy
@Roger Moore: I read once that regular and orderly transfer of governmental authority to new officials is a necessary component of a real democracy — b/c the outgoing leaders have to trust that the system is sufficiently stable, and everybody gets along well enough, that they won’t get killed or expropriated after they no longer have power. And similarly, they can’t enrich themselves inordinately, or commit real abuses, b/c then they *would* be under threat after leaving power.
Of course, in the above we sort of assume that the “new officials” can be from an opposing party, and that’s necessary b/c otherwise it’s just oligarchy.
But yeah, the fact that Russia doesn’t have regular changeovers is a big warning sign. I remember that before Xi Jinping, the PRC had such regular changeovers, and while sure it’s not a democracy, some pointed out that China was slowly making progress, and this handover of power and leaving the reins in successors’ hands was a sign that things were improving. Ah, well … not so much anymore.
Kalakal
@Calouste: I think we’re going to see a lot more of this. I expect quite a few of Putin’s puppets have their bags packed and a jet warmed up. Big Bad Vlad’s Big Stick is turning out be riddled with wood worm
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
I’d say almost always.
But there are practical limits to what more things can be done.
Modern weapons systems take training, sometimes a fair amount of training. And taking reasonable training time really doesn’t fit in with the current situation for the weapons needed.
Dan B
@Martin: Seattle with a municipal electric company has been supporting Solar PV, weatherization, and insulation because the population of their service area is growing fast but the hydroelectric is on danger of decreasing because of climate change leading to less reliable snowpack. Solar PV and conservation are good investments. Despite our Cloudy skies we paid off our rooftop solar in 9 years and have been getting a check for $2,500 yearly. Seattle City Light gets more “Green” electricity which is in demand. We need more financing packages for people who cannot handle the upfront costs.
Roger Moore
@Ruckus:
Yeah, we need to do a better job of finding the kinds of planes and missiles they already know how to use. That’s why the thing with the Polish Mig29s was so frustrating. There were a bunch of planes that seemed to suit the bill, but they couldn’t be sent for some reason. I wonder if they had some kind of American-supplied upgrades that either the Ukrainians wouldn’t know how to use or we would be afraid of having fall into Russian hands. That would explain the need for Poland to return the planes to the US before they could be sent to Ukraine.
marcopolo
@Martin: This update from DKos (actually written by Kos) from a couple hours ago looks like it addresses what you are talking about and maybe a little more. Mykolayiv now looks totally clear of RU forces with those forces pushed (or pulled back to) the city boundaries of Kherson.
In the north, both to the east of Kyiv and the south and west (south of Sumy) of Kharkov it looks like Ukrainian troops are also clearing out pockets of Russian soldiers and strengthening their own supply lines while degrading those of the Russians.
As this update reports, hopefully with a little more cleanup to the NE of Kyiv, UA forces will be able to start relieving the pressure on Chernihiv which has been sustaining terrible bombardments by RU forces.
Edited to add: As for incoming RU reinforcements. I don’t see any reason to believe they are happening until we see actual equipment/troops on the ground. Everything I am reading (dunno if it is totally accurate or not but…) indicates the level of procurement corruption in the RU army is so bad that the equipment that should be sitting in warehouses ready to be sent as reinforcements is all missing essential shit like sights and just cannot be put into service. Anyway, as I am from MO I need to be shown stuff before I believe it.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
That’s what I meant by regular term or replacement function. Hell the last regular one we had was attempted to be overthrown. Of course that was done by a clown circus and the head ape so it was unsuccessful.
Roger Moore
@Redshift:
The exact same reason people have otherwise been willing to believe Russian statements: they wanted to believe. Only this time you had not only the tankies, who could say that Russia had obviously been honest all along and only wanted to protect the Russian speakers on Donetsk and Luhansk, but also the people supporting Ukraine, who could see it as a sign of Ukrainian success.
Dan B
@Calouste: Im hoping there will be many of the so called territories like Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kuril Islands, etc. that have revolts. These may wake up the security services. Hopefully Russia will not devolve into civil war. What happens to nukes if there is no military to put down wars. Nuclear war in a couple states could destroy food production worldwide. And there’s the radiation.
Jay
@Roger Moore:
IAF and Thales did the upgrades, ( Israel/France/Poland),
It’s partially the electronics, navigation, radar and targeting upgrades that would require significant Ukrainian pilot retraining,
But also that the aircraft have been refitted to use NATO bombs and missiles, which would be a whole new supply chain for Ukraine.
It was a nice gesture, but not practical in the short term.
“As of 2018, the Lviv State Aircraft Repair Plant began domestically upgrading the MiG-29 to have multirole capability, known as the MiG-29MU2. Development was expected to be completed by 2019 and enter production in 2020.[53] The first upgraded MiG-29 was delivered to the Ukrainian Air Force in July 2020.[54] In August 2020, Ukraine began negotiations with Elbit Systems to help modernize the MiG-29 fleet.[citation needed]”
Splitting Image
@Jerzy Russian:
I’m told that the capitalized form of “Bucket” is pronounced the same as “bouquet”.
wombat probability cloud
@NotMax: Hey, that’s an acquired taste (and odor)!
Calouste
@Dan B: I’m not sure we have to worry that much about an intra-Russia nuclear war. IIRC someone mentioned on this here blog that one of the reasons Ukraine gave up the Soviet nuclear weapons that were on their territory was that they could launch them anyway, because they didn’t have the keys/codes.
But there are a lot of unresolved territorial issues in the former USSR, and Russia itself has a large number of minorities, who haven’t always been treated well by the ethnic Russians. Lots can happen when Putin is seen to be losing control, and the Azerbaijan action is the first of probably quite a few little pokes were going to see to test what Putin’s regime can handle at the moment.
Roger Moore
@Chetan Murthy:
I would say it’s a mistake to see this as a unique feature of democratic governments and more of a result of the rule of law. We tend to see rule of law as being a hallmark of democracy, but it was common to well functioning monarchies, too; it shouldn’t be too surprising that it would be a feature of any government that strives for some kind of legitimacy.
sdhays
@Roger Moore: I read that it’s not as simple as it appears. The Mig29s have been modified to the point Ukrainian pilots would need extra training to fly them in combat. They also use NATO parts and can’t be serviced the same.
Chetan Murthy
@Roger Moore: Well-put, and I subscribe to your version.
Jay
â@Jay:
sorry, IAI
CaseyL
@wetzel: I like this.
BeautifulPlumage
This may be too lighthearted, but it made me smile. A Ukrainian cartoon has been reworked for current events: https://mobile.twitter.com/_MJMoody_/status/1507711435723493380
A translation of the Russian words is proved down thread:
“In the fields, in the fields
The blue tractor on big Wheels
In its trailer someone sings a very merry song
You can guess and win
Come on, let’s begin
Guess who Guess Who Guess Who Guess
Who Sings this happy song.”
And there’s a link to the original cartoon also in the replies
Roger Moore
@Calouste:
Yeah, I think what we’re really seeing is that the USSR was much more Russian Empire 2.0 than the Soviets were ever willing to admit. The breakup of the USSR was handled quick and dirty so as many minorities as possible could get the hell away from the Russians before anyone could stop them, which left all kinds of time bombs for subsequent generations to sort out.
And the issue of whether the Russians can effectively assert their authority everywhere while fighting in Ukraine is going to be critical. As you say, what’s happening in Azerbaijan is about testing whether the Russians are actually able to assert their authority while tied down in Ukraine. If their response convinces others they can’t, things are going to get very messy very fast.
BeautifulPlumage
@BeautifulPlumage: and it was also pointed out it makes fun of “Ramzan Kadyrov, “Don” is his filler word. He often ends sentences with it.”
BeautifulPlumage
@wetzel: intriguing POV
Chetan Murthy
@Roger Moore: I think the Russian Federation is a lot more of an empire than we’d been led to believe. And when things start to fail there, I suspect there’ll be …. centrifugal forces at play, won’t be pretty. Boy I hope the US is talking to China about how to secure Russia’s nukes, if that happens.
Redshift
@Roger Moore: Good point. And it was also more interesting to try to figure out the implications of it was true than to assume it was probably a lie.
Martin
@Redshift: Well, there’s a LOT of evidence on the ground that Russia is doing exactly that. Ukrainian forces are making headway everywhere else – NE and NW of Kyiv, south around Kherson, etc. and Russia is now mining behind them as they retreat. They are destroying rail lines as they retreat. They aren’t planning on retaking that land. So everything does point to ground forces consolidating in the east.
It’s not that some of us are suddenly believing that statement, it’s that statement is the only thing there that is accurately describing what we are seeing.
VeniceRiley
thank you for the research, Adam, if that’s your real name! :-)
And if you want mine, I give permission to watergiirl and/or raven to give it to you.
I have more questions now about Russians kicking up radioactive soil around Chernobyl with their armor.
buy ATOMIK voDka!
Jimmm
Ever been to Reading station?
Redshift
@Liminal Owl, I don’t know if you’re checking in on these threads, but I wanted to thank you for the link you posted a couple of nights ago about the rude anti-Putin slogan/song. It solved a big mystery for me.
When we were visiting Kyiv back in 2017, we saw a roll of Putin toilet paper in a street market, so of course we had to buy it. It had text on it, and the first part was obviously a compressed version of Putin (no vowels, like a license plate) but neither Google nor online Ukrainian curse lists revealed the rest. Our guide for the day, the older cousin of the girl we had once hosted, wouldn’t translate it for us, and would only tell us it was extremely rude.
And now I know, it’s the Putin song, complete with the la-la-la-la-la-la! A true cultural artifact!
https://twitter.com/Redshift42/status/150736124585857439
Redshift
@Martin: That’s fair. I wasn’t really talking about people online, I meant reporting in news outlets immediately and over the past day, which didn’t mention any corroborating evidence.
Jimmm
@Jerzy Russian: And just to provide some closure on the subject, words that change meaning when they are capitalized are called “capitonyms”, and there are a fair few. But the list of capitonyms that also differ in pronunciation (heteronyms) is much shorter – especially if you exclude proper names.
That list mostly includes words that are also nationalities or group names: Pole/pole, Arabic/arabic, Mandarin/mandarin, Scotch/scotch, etc.
NotMax
@Jimmm
Also he who shall not be named, known otherwise hereabouts as Dolt 45.
Martin
@Redshift: My expectation that Russia has determined that they can possibly occupy the two oblasts in the east, and possibly the coast of the Sea of Azov, and keep their ground troops to those areas, and shift some other assets to stopping the flow of western weapons to those front lines. I think they’ve figured out that they’re losing the attrition war as it stands and need to change priority.
To the extent that Russia has the rockets to hit cities like Lviv, I think they’re planning on concentrating as much of that as possible in that area or where they think the supply lines are moving.
I mean, the problem so far has been that the things Russia have been doing don’t make sense. And the working theory is that Putin’s understanding of the outside world doesn’t track with what we can see, because his internal propaganda system is being used against him by his generals. And a good ongoing question is at what point does Putin’s view of the board resemble the board. Are the generals still lying to him? At what point does everyone have to come clean? To start, a fair number of those generals are now dead, so that should loosen things up. And, for example, on the situation of how much of Russia’s reserve equipment actually works? Ukraine just put out a report that they believe no more than 10% of it is due to rampant theft of equipment and parts as well a maintenance that never happened. Assuming this is true, does Putin learn this from his generals, or does he learn it from some FSB report that is summarizing that Ukrainian assessment?
So at some point a realistic plan has to manifest. Now, that plan could be getting your ass kicked clean back to the border and realizing you utterly lost, but usually it’s something that illustrates an acknowledgement of reality before then. This plan to consolidate back to the eastern 2 oblasts and the coast at least bears some semblance to reality – certainly more than anything that’s come so far. And since it seems to square with what we’re seeing on the ground, it starts to feel like a maybe reality is starting to creep in to Russias actions.
Roger Moore
@Martin:
The real wild card is what happens in places like Azerbaijan, where the Azerbaijanis seem to be skeptical the Russians can actually keep their commitment to protect Nagorno-Karabakh. There are more places like that, where the Russians have been keeping things under control with the threat of their military might, or have been propping up friendly neighboring rules. If they’re obviously having trouble in Ukraine, those other places may get restive. If one of them pushes and discovers the Russians can’t keep their commitments, the rest of them will start pushing too. The Russians might very quickly find themselves with more little wars than they can deal with. I’m certainly not saying it’s likely, but it has to be the Russian nightmare scenario.
Booger
@Jerzy Russian: LOL that’s the test used to differentiate a plumber from a chemist!
Uncle Cosmo
@SiubhanDuinne: Call up the diacritical marks! Welcome back the accents aigu et grave and the Umlaut (“cooperate”)! End definition and pronunciation ambiguity NOW!! :^D
Liminal Owl
@Redshift: Thanks for letting me know, and I’m glad it helped you.
I read BJ every day, usually enough behind the curve (because of work hours and exhaustion) that the threads are already dead, so it seems like there’s no point in commenting. But my beloved sometimes reminds me about specific threads in time. (I’m hoping you see this comment.)
Also, I often feel that I don’t know enough to comment about the particular topics, so I stay quiet and listen to those more knowledgeable. Unless the thread is about psychology, or science fiction, or folk music…
p.s. Would it make sense to think of your “compressed” (vowel-less) version of Putin’s name as a Hebrew reference, rather than a license plate? That would be my frame of reference.
Liminal Owl
@Jimmm: ooh, new linguistic terms, hurrah! Thank you!
Did “contronym” make it into general usage?
debbie
@Redshift:
It was the speed of the betrayal that surprised me, not that it was a lie. Of course, I continue to be surprised how Russia refuses to honor its other commitments like humanitarian corridors. That’s just me and my naivety.
zhena gogolia
@wetzel: Great analysis.
It was not a gaffe, but let them think so.
Uncle Cosmo
IMO a significant part of that is wanting to believe that Putin remains a rational actor. Because the alternative is too horrible to imagine.
Pulling back to Donbas/Lugansk, shoring up a land bridge to Crimea, and going on the defensive is a strategy that would appeal to a commander-in-chief who understands that his original plans are long since overcome by events (OBE). A stalemate that leaves him in control of those areas is his easiest path to declaring a victory and getting out while his command of the nation is still unchallenged.
No one wants to contemplate the possibility that Vozhd Vova is mentally and/or physically unwell, fears he’s running out of time to impose his Great Russian fantasies on the region, and simply doesn’t give a shit what happens to Russia after him. Not just a toxic narcissist but a committed solipsist: “When I die the world ends”.
(Recall how Hitler at the end dismissed the German people as too weak to accomplish his fever-dreams and therefore worthy of destruction. Now imagine that same addled Onkel Adi with enough thermonuclear weapons to set the whole world burning….)
(JMO as always)
Liminal Owl
@NotMax: I saw a post yesterday that refereed to the Fanta Menace, and I’ll probably adopt that one too. (Off-off-off topic: am I the only person who remembers the annoyingly amusing Colt 45 ad from 1972?)
Liminal Owl
@Redshift: I’m getting a broken link. Did you delete your tweet?
wetzel
Winning it like Washington, but he never owned a slave
Zelensky is like Lincoln, except this guy’s alive!
When he’s done over there, maybe he’ll come over here
We could take him to Benchwarmers and buy him a beer!
If he has bad words to say about the President
When it comes to Trump, I don’t give a shit
I would join with Ukraine, Belarus and Russia
Under Zelensky the Great Confederacy of Dunces
We could watch dumb TV shows until the end of time
And try to figure out some new words with which to rhyme
wetzel
@wetzel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmMCYFKjWaQ
Here he is on his TV show.
Redshift
@Liminal Owl: Dang it! Looks like I cut off a digit when I copied it:
https://twitter.com/Redshift42/status/1507361245858574396
Tehanu
@Ked:
This, exactly.