I am happy to share another guest post from Gin & Tonic to help round out our understanding of not only current events, but also the history of Russia and Ukraine.
On Assasination as Statecraft
by Gin & TonicPreview
I was looking for a unifying element for another guest post, and yesterday (Sunday, 27 March) I saw reports, I think still unconfirmed, that another hit squad going for Zelensky had been taken out somewhere in Hungary or Slovakia. So I thought, huh, political assassinations as a frequently-used tool by Russia. Sure, I know, assassinations have been a tool of statecraft forever, and surely the well-informed jackaltariat knows about Litvinenko (polonium), Politkovskaya (hit squad), Nemtsov (hit squad), Viktor Yushchenko (unsuccessful, dioxin), Skripal and Navalny (unsuccessful, Novichok). But I want to go back in history a bit and focus on Ukraine, so if you’re interested, follow me after the jump.
⚡️Another attempt on the life of #VladimirZelensky failed.
This time, a military group of 25 people led by the Russian special services was captured near the Slovakia-Hungary border. Their goal was the physical elimination of the #UkrainianPresident. pic.twitter.com/Vp0vDEIZnK— KyivPost (@KyivPost) March 28, 2022
(break here so we can put the full post under the fold)
The Full Post
I was looking for a unifying element for another guest post, and yesterday (Sunday, 27 March) I saw reports, I think still unconfirmed, that another hit squad going for Zelensky had been taken out somewhere in Hungary or Slovakia. So I thought, huh, political assassinations as a frequently-used tool by Russia. Sure, I know, assassinations have been a tool of statecraft forever, and surely the well-informed jackaltariat knows about Litvinenko (polonium), Politkovskaya (hit squad), Nemtsov (hit squad), Viktor Yushchenko (unsuccessful, dioxin), Skripal and Navalny (unsuccessful, Novichok). But I want to go back in history a bit and focus on Ukraine.
So let’s go back to before WWI. Western Ukraine, largely the area known as Halychyna (Galicia), the major cities of which are Lviv (aka Lwow or Lemberg) and Stanyslaviw (now Ivano-Frankivsk), was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Following the Russian Revolution, the Ukrainian People’s Republic was declared independent, but the period from 1917 to the early 1920’s was, to say the least, turbulent, and the Republic didn’t last. There’s a lot of history here, but it’s not really germane, so I won’t go into it. It’s enough for now to end with the 1921 Peace of Riga, which ceded Galicia to Poland. Poland had a long history there, and there were Galicians who had preferred the relatively benign Austro-Hungarian rule – but the Habsburg dynasty was over – or, obviously independence. This lead to the formation of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), which started out as a political movement devoted to driving Poland out of Galicia and establishing some form of independent state.
The OUN in the 1920’s consisted of a mix of older Galicians who were veterans of various army formations – Tsarist, Austrian, Ukrainian – and a group of younger activists who had no experience of arms but were more interested in “kinetic action.” A tale as old as time: an organization of old men writing manifestos and young radicals wanting to throw bombs, with many of the older men in exile throughout Europe while the radicals were mostly in Galicia. The one leader who could bridge the divide and hold the factions together was Evhen (Yevhen) Konovalets. So, in a masterstroke of strategy and a tragedy for the cause of Ukrainian nationalism, the NKVD assassinated him with a bomb in Rotterdam in 1938. You can read about it, if you’re interested, in Special Tasks by Pavel Sudoplatov, the NKVD man who carried it out.
After this assassination, the OUN started to break into factions, the OUN(m) for Andriy Melnyk, representing the old guard (and perhaps not coincidentally brother-in-law of Konovalets) and OUN(b) for Stepan Bandera, perhaps the most radical of the radicals. As I’ve noted before, the OUN had even earlier allied themselves with the Nazis, first as a means of driving the Poles out of Galicia, and then also as a means of driving the Soviets out of other areas of Ukraine. This was an enemy-of-my-enemy strategy primarily – while there certainly was anti-Semitism in Ukraine, the Ukrainians, as Slavs, were untermenschen themselves and couldn’t be Nazis, but they were Nazi-adjacent. After Operation Barbarossa, though, they became no longer useful to the Nazis and had the temerity to declare independence for Ukraine (on June 30, 1941), so much of the OUN(b) leadership was promptly arrested and sent to Auschwitz. Many of those who remained became the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, which I will refer to as UPA, for the Ukrainian initials of the name. The primary motive of the UPA was to drive the Soviet (i.e. Russian) invaders out of Ukraine. As it turned out, the war, as they say, did not develop to the best interests of the Ukrainian nationalist movement.
Post-war, much of western Ukraine, especially Galicia, scattered to the four winds. Some stayed, particularly the hard-core UPA members. You could say at that point that the OUN was the “political wing” while the UPA was the action wing. Yes, by current definitions a terrorist organization, like Irgun was. The Russians attacked it on both fronts.
On March 5, 1950, the Russians killed Roman Shukhevych, the supreme commander of the UPA in Ukraine. Various stories exist of the circumstances of his death, so maybe not strictly an assassination, but clearly Russia was still worried about him even in death, as they took his body out of western Ukraine, cremated it and scattered the remains so nobody could create a shrine. His mother and his wife were exiled to Siberia, and his son and daughter were sent to an orphanage. His son spent most of the next 30 years in prison camps.
The UPA continued sporadic activity for a few more years under the leadership of Vasyl Kuk, but it was really spent as a fighting force, and, like the OUN, was riddled with Soviet agents. Nevertheless, the Russians continued pursuing OUN(b) members in exile. In 1957 in Munich, the KGB assassinated Lev Rebet, leading political theorist of the OUN(b), by means of a gun that shot cyanide, so the death would mimic a heart attack. For more on this read Serhii Plokhy’s The Man With The Poison Gun. The same method was used two years later to assassinate Bandera himself, also in Munich. This pretty much ended OUN activity, except for essentially powerless holdout emigres in Europe and North America, who wrote turgid, lengthy essays in journals with circulation in the hundreds, and thought they were plotting a rebirth of an independent Ukraine.
Bandera was, to put it mildly, a controversial figure, in my opinion entirely out of proportion to his post-war power, but even in death he was a thorn in the side of Soviet Russia. Any Ukrainian nationalist leanings were attributed to “Banderites” (Бандерівці in Ukrainian) – a term which even gained currency among the hard left in the West, people like Stephen Cohen or old friend of the blog BiP, who wouldn’t recognize Bandera if they sat next to him on the subway. And while Adam has repeatedly said, accurately, that to Putin anyone opposed to Imperial Russia is by definition a Nazi, the fact that the OUN sided with Germany before and during WWII gives that claim a sheen of plausibility with people who think they are more objective.
The OUN/UPA members were venerated by many, especially in western Ukraine, much more publicly after independence. There are streets named after nearly every one of the men I mentioned in Lviv, and both Shukhevych and Bandera were named “National Heroes of Ukraine” by President Viktor Yushchenko, at least partly as a bone to his primarily western constituency (said designation rescinded by Yanukovych.) This also certainly pissed off the Putinist Russians, who viewed them all as traitors/Nazis.
But a boogeyman can only last so long. It’s over 70 years since Shukhevych was killed, and over 60 since Bandera was killed. You can’t keep railing against Banderites forever. So, enter the new boogeyman, to entertain the heirs of Cohen and the tankies, the new fellow travelers like Blumenthal and Tracey and Mate: the Azov Battalion.
But I’ll leave that for another post, if I have the energy…
I surely hope you do have the energy, Gin & Tonic, and I think it’s fair to say that we all greatly appreciate these posts. At the same time, we all understand why and how your energy is being sapped. Thank you.
Baud
The Bauderites, however….
Thanks for the historical perspective. I love learning new history.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Thank you G&T
WaterGirl
I cannot imaging knowing that teams of assassins are repeatedly being sent to kill you. Such a brave man.
While Putin cowers at the end of a long table.
WaterGirl
This is very good.
WaterGirl
Biden and Zelensky must be Putin’s worst nightmares. Either one one their own, but 100x more so together.
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: Old history can be pretty interesting too.
debbie
Is there any connection between the hit squad possibly associated with Hungary and Zelenskyy’s singling out Orban in his address last week?
Raven
It reminds me of the Blue House Raid. We didn’t know what the hell was going on because they just sent us out to sweep the mountains.
skerry
Thanks so much for these posts, Gin & Tonic.
MisterDancer
Yeah, this clicks with me. This is not an area/period I know AT ALL well (ask me about 16th century Ottomans, however…),so I appreciate the help in connecting what looks like quasi-random attacks into a framework of toxic understanding, as painful as it is.
Gin & Tonic
@debbie: I don’t think so. It’s just geography. There’s a border crossing point in Chop, which is right where Hungary, Slovakia and Ukraine meet, and it’s a major trucking route from there to Kyiv.
David Koch
@Raven: Were you stationed in SK when that happened?
Gin & Tonic
I should have proofread this post better. Oh, well.
Baud
@David Koch:
Who do you think took out the 31 KPA soldiers?
debbie
Well, this seems inevitable.
zhena gogolia
This looks great. Will read later. Totally exhausted from work right now.
I showed my students some of Zelenskyy’s interview with the Russian journalists today, where he talked about “disappointment turning to hate” in the Ukrainian attitude to Russians. Very moving and distressing.
debbie
@Gin & Tonic:
Thanks. The ongoing level of violence is dizzying.
Gin & Tonic
This guy is a goddamn hero, and a hoot also. Vitaliy Kim, mayor of Mykolaiv (if you’re thinking Kim is not a very Ukrainian name, it’s not, it’s Korean.) Bemoaning the fact the the ammo they liberate from captured Russians is crap.
Bill
An interesting novel on this topic is Mikhail Bulgakov’s The White Guard, all about the fight over Kyiv between many factions, the Ukrainian Nationalists, the Reds, and the Whites in late
20181918.date fixed.
SiubhanDuinne
@David Koch:
What happened to all the rainbows and stuff in your nym?
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: I can still fix anything, just let me know what to fix.
SiubhanDuinne
@G&T: Thank you. Your posts and comments have brought me a perspective on warfare and the that I’ve never experienced.
Dan B
Amazing context for current actions.
The fires in Chernobyl seem like another puzzle. They could result in lethal radiation in Russia in what must be important agricultural areas. What is stopping the firefighters from being allowed to do their job? Is it that the generals are too fearful of Putin if there is any deviation from the fighting?
Gin & Tonic
@WaterGirl: Not worth it, it’s just a blog post. I was re-reading the part about Rebet, where I said “in Munich” twice.
Gin & Tonic
@Dan B: Part of it is just nature. It’s maybe a couple of weeks early, but there are grass fires usually in early April. In April of 2020, my son was in Kyiv and sent me a screen shot of the AQI one day – it was over 500.
Gin & Tonic
@Bill: I think you meant 1918.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: Fixed. Even though it’s just a blog post. :-(
Alison Rose ???
Thank you G&T.
@WaterGirl: Agreed. And I’d imagine that Zelenskyy’s own courage helps his country fight even harder. He’s a true role model.
Raven
@David Koch: Yes, our “compound” looked right over the Imjin into North Korea.
zhena gogolia
@Bill: Bulgakov is great.
burnspbesq
The Ukrainians have first-rate intel. For a change, the CIA is doing something useful.
Raven
@Baud: Mostly ROK’s but our troops got a couple. Years later they found the tunnel under the DMZ where they came over. Here’s a video I put up.
AT 5:02 they show a map of the retreat, we were just south of Munsani.
Nutmeg again
Thank you so much. I appreciate how deep you’ve reached to share this with a bunch of folks on the internet. I’ve been rereading Snyder and then Judt, just before the Russians invaded. (No, I knew nothing, just interested in the region.) Please take care of yourself.
Baud
@Raven:
Thanks. It’s amazing how much shit happened to American soldiers without the media running around claiming that Fuck LBJ was weak.
Also too, Reagan in Beirut.
Uncle Cosmo
I would be extremely interested in a follow-on post discussing the history of the Azov Battalion, specifically to what extent the addition of a near-Hakenkreuz** to the Ukrainian flag evinces neofascistic tendencies. (Though I doubt Zelinskyy gives a fuck – the enemy of his enemy is his ally for the moment, and they’ve been a continuing pain in the заднице for the Russians trying to take the Mariupol port facilities.)
** Cf. the logo used by the Greek far-right ultranationalist party Golden Dawn – it’s a section of the classic meander seen on Greek restaurant menus, but it’s waaaaay too close to a swastika…
Raven
@Baud: Fuck LBJ!
Baud
@Raven:
I said that!
laura
Very much appreciate your post and historical precedent for current events. I can’t express my level of distain for the Michael Tracey and other 5th Column shite-bags and I wish Maxine Waters would kick his lily ass again. Hopefully, they reap the whirlwind for undermining the Administration, the people of Ukraine and the danger they pose for America in whipping up the fascists in our midst.
JaySinWa
Apparently some people think that poisoning of Ukraine negotiators happened. An interesting statecraft tactic if true. There’s a lot of speculation in the story, but the history of Putin’s enemies makes it not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60904676
CaseyL
G&T, this is very much appreciated! I know extremely little about the history of the area, and it’s a part of the world where history is never forgotten, So good to know (some of) the background.
burnspbesq
@JaySinWa:
One wonders whether the primary target was the Ukrainian negotiators or Abramovitch.
trollhattan
@CaseyL:
Same. And yet I paid so much time there when playing Risk! as a kid. One of the hardest regions to hold, funny that.
Gin & Tonic
@Uncle Cosmo: That’ll have to wait a bit.
Gin & Tonic
@burnspbesq: That item has been floating around for a day or two, but Podolyak, Zelensky’s right-hand man and chief negotiator seems to be downplaying it.
Gin & Tonic
@burnspbesq: They have their own sources too.
WaterGirl
@burnspbesq: I initially assumed that Putin was behind the poisoning, if it indeed occurred.
Jinchi
@Gin & Tonic: I assume that the term ‘orc’ to describe russian soldiers is a taunt and not an acronym.
Josie
Thank you, G&T. This is fascinating stuff that was totally left out of my education on European history. We are so America centered in our studies. I had to take Texas history twice when I could have been learning background like this. I look forward to the information on the Azov Battalion.
Gin & Tonic
@Jinchi: You assume correctly.
Dan B
@Gin & Tonic: There were experts, as I recall, who were afraid that buildings at Chernobyl were at risk and radiation could be released.
Uncle Cosmo
@Gin & Tonic: I’d like to see it while I’m still young. Which gives you (checks watch) about 2 hours and 47 minutes… :^D
(Reminiscent of the old comment that “the typical American male reaches emotional maturity at age 35. And it lasts for 1 hour and 43 minutes…”)
topclimber
@Gin & Tonic: Interesting that on the day that would-be negotiator Turkey talked about Putin and Zelenskyy meeting once other issues are worked out at a lower level, it becomes clear that Putin wants to make such a meeting academic.
Putin could probably ingest a large load of feces when it comes to the actual terms of peace of Ukraine, but having to negotiate face to face with a comedian in charge of a “country” Putin thinks is a joke may ultimately be the last straw.
Perhaps the Turks can guarantee a long enough table that if Putin takes off his glasses, he can pretend he doesn’t recognize the guy on the other end.
Doug R
@debbie: That does make a lot of sense, I would say yes.
Ishiyama
I wonder what Tolkien would think of how far his fantasy images have entered world culture. (Full disclosure – I was reading him back in the ’60s when he was not so widely honored.)
SiubhanDuinne
O/T, I saw the Ukraine thermometer was at $29,980. My OCD kicked in and I donated another twenty bucks just so I could watch the odometer turn over (to mix metaphorical measuring devices). It’s absolutely remarkable what BJ is able to do in a good cause.
WaterGirl
@topclimber: Boy, I don’t want Zelenskyy anywhere near Putin or his people.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: And there it is! It was just $29,980 a minute ago when I had looked.
SiubhanDuinne
@WaterGirl: Nope. Nor do I.
JaySinWa
@burnspbesq: One might, but the theory that it was a warning and not an outright attempt at assassination that failed strike me as a bit thin if Abramovitch was the target. Unless he has some sort of dead man switch that Putin’s aware of, or some use to him alive. I suppose killing him outright and alone might be seen as a tipping point in the “it’s either him or us” calculations, so maybe not so crazy as a warning shot.
Of course the whole story is a bit thin in any case. Less thin than the Antivax crew getting hit with weaponized anthrax, but still not entirely convincing.
Just the fact that it is being seriously floated as possible by normal media is interesting though.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: I think we have at least a couple more auction items where I haven’t heard from the people yet, so the thermometer may go up some more. :-)
SiubhanDuinne
More O/T: the J6 committee is meeting. Scavino, Navarro. Ginni Thomas? MSNBC is carrying it live. Don’t know how long they’ll stay on, but this is an especially important session, ISTM.
Spanky
This, perhaps, may be the best thread to ask my question.
What toilet paper brands are made by companies who have pulled out of Russia. And paper towel brands?
topclimber
@WaterGirl:
@SiubhanDuinne:
Well, since Zelenskyy won’t go to Russia and Putin can’t afford to leave as the Kremlin sharks start to circle around him, it is going to be a zoom meeting, with a monitor on a long lonely table opposite Russia’s top mobster. With the video turned off.
JaySinWa
@JaySinWa: I wonder if the other non fatal poisonings being interpreted as warnings aren’t really failed assassination attempts, and Putin saying sotto voce “I meant to do that”.
The Ukrainian mayor’s taunt about one out of three of the munitions captured failed to fire leads me to think graft and incompetence might explain things better than 11 dimensional chess
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: Thanks. I just set Tivo to record 90 minutes. I will check it out later.
Uncle Cosmo
@Dan B: Released radiation might be from burning trees – there’s probably some still-hot isotopes trapped in the tree rings over the last 36 years.
On a vaguely related note, I read long ago in a book on chemical warfare** about a Belgian farmer who was clearing trees one summer day from a field he aimed to open up for cultivation. He sat down on one of the tree stumps to have lunch, and by the time he’d finished he felt a burning sensation in his buttocks – caused by mustard “gas”*** that had settled in the tree rings during the Great War and, still potent after >50 years, soaked into his overalls.
** I believe it was in Yellow Rain: Journey Through the Terror of Chemical Warfare, by Sterling Seagrave, which I reviewed in the mid-1970s. In early 1991, a couple of days before an interview with an Edgewood Arsenal civilian CW contractor, I pulled the review copy off my shelf and skimmed back through it – and it helped get me a job offer in a really tough employment environment just a month after I’d been laid off. /tmi
*** Which is actually a liquid at any normal temperature – boiling point >400° F.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I don’t think Putin and Zelenskyy will ever be in the same room. Too dangerous for Zelenskyy, too humiliating for Putin. If and when there is a ceasefire to sign, the format used earlier this month in Antalya, Turkey, with the Turkish Foreign Minister refereeing the Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers, would be adequate. Although the venue might be Istanbul. I believe that’s where the upcoming talks are to be.
David Koch
@SiubhanDuinne: Using a different tablet
Mike in NC
A Russian hit squad of 25 men! Holy shit. Is that not overkill (pun intended)?
lowtechcyclist
@trollhattan:
For me it was Diplomacy, which is played on a map of pre-WWI Europe. Talk of Galicia and Sevastopol fills my brain with A Ukr -> Sev and A Vie -> Gal.
And thanks, G&T, for your illuminating some of the 20th century history of Ukraine. I know far too little about eastern Europe during the interwar period and the immediate aftermath of WWII.
Dan B
@Uncle Cosmo: The reports I saw stated that radiation levels were already rising from the fires but they were concerned about large releases if buildings were burned. I believe it may be the loss of controls and an overheating event
Great story about mustard gas in the tree stump.
CaseyL
@Spanky: Stay away from any of the Koch brands (good advice in general, actually) – which includes, among others, Kimberly Clark.
I think Procter & Gamble are good – before I started buying bamboo TP and paper towels, I looked for P&G products because they’re non-Koch, and still buy their facial tissue.
(If you’re interested, BTW, the bamboo paper product company is Cloud Paper, available only online as a subscription.)
Uncle Cosmo
I remember reading about the Bandera assassination in the context of chemical weaponry.
I wonder if Vova’s Citizen-Kane-length table act stems less from a fear of COVID infection than a desire to stay out of range of a handheld cyanide delivery system, or a Bulgarian bumbershoot with a springloaded ricin pellet, both of which (IIRC) mimic fatal heart attacks in the target…
(Insert quote from Proverbs 28:1 – “The wicked flee when no one pursues.”)
JustRuss
@WaterGirl: Really liking No-Fux-Left Biden. I hope these concern-trolls crash through their fainting couches and break something.
Roger Moore
@WaterGirl:
Putin cowers at the end of a long table precisely because he’s the kind of person who sends out assassins. He expects everyone else to do the same.
Carlo Graziani
Very nice, thanks.
And, on assassination-adjacent topics, I am still of the opinion that Putin has an at least even chance of being on the Beria retirement plan — bullet in the brain in a Lubyanka cell.
Jay
@Mike in NC:
you need drivers, watchers, a comms team, a tail team , 24/7, just to try to find a chink in the defences and the possibility of a opportunity, plus of course, a security team to try to make sure the Ukrainian assets you are hopefully being aided by, aren’t ratting you out.
Dorothy A. Winsor
MSNBC is televising the debate on whether to cite Navarro and Scavino for contempt. At the moment, Jamie Raskin is speaking. Sadly, I have to give props to Liz Cheney, who just finished.
JaySinWa
@Carlo Graziani: I had thought that Putin would be gone long (in days or weeks) before this. I was wrong. I still think he is going to go down involuntarily, but he has survived longer than I thought he would.
The Gorbachev coup & reversal gave me a false sense of the hold on power Putin could have.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: I know Zelensky has to go through the motions to keep the option open, but the negotiations have been a joke this far and Russia isn’t really trying to negotiate anything, so I don’t want anyone from Ukraine to be at risk for a sham negotiation.
WaterGirl
@JustRuss: I wanted to smack one of the smug condescending reporters earlier, but I felt better when Biden answered “no and no” to short circuit her bullshit, and when she pressed him for a followup he said what she was asking/suggestion was ridiculous.
That made me happy.
SiubhanDuinne
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Raskin was on fire. I almost stood up and applauded. And yes, Liz Cheney was excellent. I keep wanting to
hatenot like her, and I just can’t. But Jamie R. is my man.Jay
Dorothy A. Winsor
@SiubhanDuinne: Raskin’s heart is in what he says
phdesmond
G&T, wonderful quick ride through history. thank you!
japa21
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Raskin wears his heart on his sleeve, and so does Biden.
Geminid
@Geminid: Turkey’s role in this war is interesting. With 84 million citizens Turkey is twice as populous as Ukraine, over half as populous as Russia. They are a major Black Sea power, and have rights and duties over maritime transit to and from the Black Sea under the Treaty of Montreux.
While Turkey is known for supplying deadly Bayraktar TB-2 drones to Ukraine, they have taken a relatively neutral posture in this war. and are the lone NATO member not to impose economic sanctions on Russia.
Neither the U.S. nor Ukraine seem to be giving Turkey a hard time about this. It could be that they value Turkey as a mediator, perhaps even a guarantor, for a settlement. Also, they know that the Turkish President is stubborn as a mule, not at all the type to “go along to get along.”
WaterGirl
@Roger Moore: Yep.
Carlo Graziani
@JaySinWa: The pressure is ramping way up now.
The Army Ground Forces are looking at an insane, unsustainable counterinsurgency war, against an enemy that is going to make the Afghan Mujahideen look like playful children, supplied with murderous weaponry by NATO over an indefensible border. They are simply going to run out of body bags. And they don’t have a replacement army. Or an economic basis for rebuilding one.
The FSB, and the economic ministries are looking at an economic calamity heaving over the horizon. The supply chain issues that deprived the West of conveniences like toilet paper and thermometers during the COVID-19 pandemic are probably going to deprive Russian cities of food, come the fall. Between then and now, all kinds of other breakdowns are likely to begin to become noticeable.
I believe that the fundamental conflict is this: Putin is unable to accept any resolution of the war that returns the Russian army to the lines that it occupied on 24 February. NATO, and the EU, and Ukraine, will refuse to accept any end to the war that does not require the Russian military to return to those lines. The logical consequence is that the sanctions will remain in place as long as Putin does. The Russian MOD, and the FSB, are invited to draw their own conclusions.
Russia has a long, proud history of conspiracy, and of constitutional succession by coup. They know how to get this done if they need to. The incentives need to be right.
japa21
@Carlo Graziani:
They don’t believe in body bags because they don’t care to even collect their dead. I wonder if they even let next of kin know.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I think all the parties including the mediators know that there can’t be a ceasefire agreement tomorrow or Wednesday. Putin has not given up on further gains on the battlefield, and I expect also that Zelenskyy hopes to reap the fruits of a Ukrainian counter offensive. It’s good that they have teams talking though, to keep lines of communications open for when a ceasefire is practicable.
debbie
Is there any way, after Ukraine succeeds and Putin’s gone, that the region could just calm down and stop with all the assassinating and overthrowing? It’s becoming exhausting.
J R in WV
That part of the world, the center of the Euro-Asian continent, has been massively violent for centuries. Short eras of peace when arts and civilization advance, but always broken up by a merciless horde from either east (Huns, Tatars, Mongols (repeatedly) etc) or west, the French Empire, The German Nazis, etc. Of course I’m leaving a dozen out from each direction.
Putin sitting at the end of that extremely LONG table looks like a coward. I can’t imagine Trump even looking so cowardly. Of course, he assumed everyone invited to his meetings loved and adored him. And they all played that role for him.
Thanks for this review of the past century on Ukraine history, and all the murders of would-be leaders of Ukraine. I hope this episode is more uplifting than the stories you have told this evening. Best wishes to you and yours, here and abroad.
OT: Wife and I met with her neurosurgeon this afternoon. She is doing well, although somewhat terrified at the thought of neurosurgery, which the Dr totally understood, and said “That’s a totally rational response!” She is scheduled for April 21st if all goes well. Wish her/us luck!
WaterGirl
@J R in WV: That would be terrifying. Possibly the only thing more terrifying would be if they told her they couldn’t do anything to help her. May this 3 weeks pass quickly and uneventfully so that all she has to worry about after April 21 is recovering.
Spanky
@debbie: History sez “Nope!”
Carlo Graziani
@Geminid: For what it’s worth: I do not believe that Putin is capable of giving up on “further gains on the battlefield”. In any event, what must be required of Putin — a return to the state of 24 February — is so completely beyond what can he can contemplate that in my opinion we must put any prospects of a cease-fire on our Christmas wish lists. Whether ad-libbed or deliberate, Biden is completely correct about this. Putin has to go. The alternative is a divided Ukraine, and a burning Ukrainian resistance, supported by NATO, eating the Russian army alive, and a Ukrainian civilian population, stoically paying most of the price.
Ishiyama
The Guardian say that the Wagner Group is pulling mercs out of Africa, etc. to send to Ukraine:
Jay
@J R in WV:
lots and lots of wishes headed your and your wife’s way.
Carlo Graziani
@Ishiyama: Good. Those assholes deserve to meet the Ukrainian army.
Mike in NC
@Ishiyama: Any mercenaries, including those from Syria, should be advised if they come to kill Ukrainians they will be hanged without trial as war criminals.
coin operated
+1 on the kudos G&T. Your insights have been very helpful in understanding just WTF is going on.
WaterGirl
@Ishiyama: Ugh. On the positive side, I hope whatever they were keeping in order in Africa , Syria and elsewhere soon goes out of control.
dr. luba
@Jinchi: Ukrainians have long referred to Russia/Muscovy as Mordor, and to the Russian soldiers as orcs.
WaterGirl
@Mike in NC: Hanging as war criminals works for me. Even though I am against the death penalty. It seems that war crimes is a class unto itself.
Maybe that’s wrong, but that’s how I am feeling about war crimes that are being committed.
LivinginExile
@J R in WV: Fingers crossed for your wife.
Jay
@debbie:
the lines there, the resentments, go back hundreds of years. People don’t want to let go, nations don’t want to let go. Lot’s of historic Overlords working the resentments, lot’s of outside actors working the resentments.
eg. Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Azeri’s wanted to cling to their Soviet borders, the Armenian’s wanted to cling to their historic borders. Neither side wanted to accept the reality of their respective Minority/Majority provinces,
Instead, genocide, ethic cleansing, wars and raids, Russian “peacekeepers”, with the last war aligning the borders to where they should have been during the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
With the Russian “Peacekeepers” draw down in disputed areas, ( to make war on Ukraine), the Azeri’s have broken the negotiated truce, and put “observation posts” in what is supposed to be a demilitarized zone.
Martin
Not sure how accurate this is, but an attorney that has defended people in federal cases says that the DOJ doesn’t process referrals if the individual is already under investigation by the department. They don’t want to disrupt the existing investigation by rolling them up over a contempt charge. It doesn’t mean the charge will be ignored, just that it’ll either be bundled up with the various other charges, or if the person is not charged for other crimes, then they’ll be charged.
So this atty says that rather than asserting that Garland doesn’t care about these cases, it’s probably the opposite – that he’s already working on these cases and the lack of a grand jury is evidence of that. That if there wasn’t a case already underway, then there’d be no reason to not act on the referral and that Garland isn’t likely to just fuck off on 2USC194, especially in a case this public.
Not sure how accurate that is, but it does make a certain amount of sense to me.
Geminid
@Carlo Graziani: Besides an assasination or coup in Moscow, a ceasefire might be precipitated by a widespread mutiny among Russian forces in Ukraine.
I think you are right generally, though, that Putin won’t assent to terms acceptable to the Ukrainians.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: I know it seems quaint these days, but I sort of think there should be trials before any punishments. And that probably means after the end of the war. The world should be able to wait that long.
Ishiyama
@Carlo Graziani: I would prefer that they meet Ukrainian partizans. (I did see a Ukrainian government official talking about trials of war criminals, not summary justice.)
Almost Retired
I wonder what it’s like to be a Millennial or Gen Z Ukrainian.
I imagine that many of them saw Kyiv as potentially the next Berlin or Prague, and Lviv as the next Krakow or something (shallow analysis, but bear with me). I know I did. They were living in culturally ascendant cities.
And then they got kicked back to 1942, or worse, and are living their Great Grandparents’ nightmare, but without the direct intervention of the free world. I’m trying to imagine my own twenty-something sons thrust into this reality after a comfortable and peaceful adolescence.
Ishiyama
@Almost Retired: The kids are alright: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv?fbclid=IwAR1oHVRTSRbOHD_Rac_93YCxnBa2XFspz76WxaMrqFaEdtYh1IKZVDhltaY
Jay
@WaterGirl:
they were ‘t keeping the peace anywhere.
In Syria, their key job was/is to secure oil fields for the Regime for a cut of the profits.
In Libya, their role is again, to secure the oilfields by terrorizing the population and reinforcing Haftar’s “army” against the recognized government of Libya.
In Mozambique, and elsewhere, their role is again, to terrorize the locals to “protect” raw resources for the “Government(s), against pissed off locals, for a cut of the profits.
Pretty much everywhere Wagner is active, they are basically shit fighters against even basic local Militia’s but they are great a terrorizing local populations.
“Putin’s Chef”, who run’s Wagner, is the same guy who feeds Russia’s Military expired 2012 MRE’s, ( while selling the good ones on the Black Market). That’s how he made his fortune.
Gin & Tonic
@Ishiyama: Speaking of Nazis…
Gin & Tonic
@Almost Retired: You are describing to a T my nephew and most of my son’s friends. Kyiv was already the next Berlin, easily 6-8 years ago. A modern European city with everything you expect in such, a vibrant cultural scene, food, coffee, hip cocktail bars, interesting design. And, yeah, now it’s back to dark stories they heard from ancient ancestors. They’re not giving up what they had.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/wagners-rusich-neo-nazi-attack-unit-hints-its-going-back-into-ukraine-undercover
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus:
That’s why I deliberately said “Hanging as war criminals works for me.” I am not in support of the “without a trial” part, which is why I didn’t include it.
But it would have been clearer if I had explicitly said I did not support the “without a trial” part.
I will endeavor to do better next time.
WaterGirl
@Jay: I wasn’t aware of those details, but surely everyone they were trying to keep in line is no longer being kept in line, correct?
So unless that is wrong, my comment still stands.
I hope that whatever or whoever they were trying to keep in line soon spins out of control.
Jay
@WaterGirl:
sadly, in Syria, the SAA can backfill, as the war has stalemated and the remaining anti-Assad groups are either co-opted or exhausted.
in Libya the GNA can take advantage unless the UAE, Sawdi Arabia and other Haftar backers, (eg Egypt) backfill.
Africa is a place where things can change as there are few qualified PMC’s willing to work for diamonds or barrels of oil on the side.
WaterGirl
@Jay: So much for my silver lining.
Uncle Cosmo
When Ben Cardin decides to hang ’em up, Jamie is our next Senator. Count on it.
prostratedragon
@Martin: I’ve been wondering whether DOJ might apply a priority scheme to a set of possible charges.
Reverse tool order
@Dan B:
Re fires near Chernobyl & why not being fought. I can provide some decent conceptual info, though lacking specifics on the fires and how Ukraine works wildland fires. I did take a look at aerial imagery of the nuclear complex plus immediate surroundings and a little farther out, including fuel loading. The complex looks reasonably defensible close in, especially if prepared as father below.
However, there are human problems. What was 10k hectares or 25k acres is probably growing (unless it’s dying). So, a “campaign” fire with lots of logistics if worked seriously. Lacking an immediate, dire emergency threat, that takes a back seat to the war. Almost everything needed to fight wildfire (working people, fixed & rotary wing air support, heavy equipment, fuel, material) can better go to the war effort.
No sane agency is going to put their people into (a) a contested war zone (& b) probably elevated radiation, just for wildland fire. Certainly no aircraft or trucks to be shot at.
IF it did have to be defended against encroaching wildfire:
There’s a fair amount of open water especially to the east & some to the north. Close in to the south & around to the northwest is mostly light to moderate fuel. Some smallish patches of heavier timber, generally surrounded by roads or clear strips. That’s all saying “burn me” to my hand crew bias. Point is, a reasonable amount of time, piecemeal effort, & favorable conditions could theoretically create a defensible 1 mile wet or black buffer.
However, 10 day forecast is for a lot of showers and 9-16 mph wind, not ideal counter-fire conditions.
Should anyone wonder if I actually know anything, a short fyi: 100+ fires on USFS hand crews. 5 seasons on a category 2 Organized Crew & 5 seasons at the front end of a category 1 Interagency Hotshot Crew. No engine or helitack crew time & only walked out of airplanes.
Denali
Since my son and his family live about 5 miles from the Slovakia border with Hungary, the comment about the 25-man assassination team in Hungary/Slovakia certainly caught my eye. So thanks for clarifying this with the note that this was probably near the common border with Ukraine- on the eastern border with Hungary. Still, there is so much that we don’t know about what is happening, so I am hoping for the negotiations in Istanbul to have some result.
WaterGirl
@Denali: Yikes! Scary times.