Vaccinations are rising again in the US after weeks in decline. For most of this year the rolling average number of daily Covid vaccinations trended downward. But for 8 straight days, the average number of inoculations more than doubled to 485,505 daily https://t.co/X6sDElnEAd pic.twitter.com/3CfMn1YthM
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) April 11, 2022
Be prepared to be your own, or your loved ones’, advocate:
I had to speak to my family who convinced the doc to prescribe it. His O2 sat was 65-75% at the time and getting worse daily
2 days after starting Paxlovid, he turned around
~12 days after first pos, he turned neg on rapid test
These drugs save lives remarkably well
— Michael Mina (@michaelmina_lab) April 10, 2022
======
The manufacturing hub of Guangzhou has closed itself to most arrivals as China battles a COVID-19 outbreak in its big eastern cities. Shanghai, under tight lockdown, has taken the brunt of the surge, with more than 26,000 new cases reported. https://t.co/wO5mHYqlYk
— The Associated Press (@AP) April 11, 2022
Authorities in China's financial centre of Shanghai will start easing lockdown in some areas, despite reporting a record of more than 25,000 new COVID infections, as they strive to get the city moving again after more than two weeks https://t.co/efDvCLZGNd pic.twitter.com/a8ngfGpzNW
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 11, 2022
On social media, there are some real horror stories concerning Shanghai — and also, I have to assume, an unknown percentage of doomsterism-fueled exaggerations, disinformation, and lies. I try to err on the side of caution:
Shanghai residents question human cost of China's COVID quarantines https://t.co/n1y1nG2hAE pic.twitter.com/dUu7RhQbSW
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 11, 2022
When reporting deaths, if there is a choice between attributing them to Covid or underlying conditions, there are strong incentives not to attribute them directly to Covid. In China, “we just don’t know what the true number of deaths is.”https://t.co/pQYxzAfCbA
— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) April 11, 2022
Health authorities have emphasized that the over 11,000 recovered COVID-19 patients that have been released in Shanghai must be allowed to return home, despite the lockdown that has severely restricted movement in China’s largest city. https://t.co/PKsIHiBKtw
— The Associated Press (@AP) April 10, 2022
This, AFAICT, seems like an excellent summary:
… The shortages are affecting the top and bottom tiers of Shanghai society. Chinese tycoon Kathy Xu has tried to join a collective buying bread and milk, the marines based in the US consulate have had to beg for food to be delivered and some migrant workers have reported eating one steamed bun every two days.
“In Shanghai, we’re in the middle of the hurricane, this is also a lesson for all the other cities in China,” said Rodrigo Zeidan, a professor of business at NYU Shanghai and Fundacao Dom Cabral who lives in the Chinese metropolis.
“It was chaos. There’s a lot of frustration and anger, there are all sorts of feelings. It’s a city of 30 million people. So, there are 30 million individuals with their own feelings.”
The issue that has driven Shanghainese to the streets and to confrontations with medical workers and police is supply. This cosmopolitan hub suddenly shut down its economy, but officials now admit they had not thought through how they would get food delivered to compounds once delivery drivers or grocery workers were isolated or locked down themselves…
In their compounds, residents have had to co-ordinate with hundreds of neighbours to place orders big enough to bring in entire truckloads of shopping.
Fishman ordered $3700 worth of groceries with his neighbours to make sure they could get vegetables, eggs, chicken and other supplies delivered.
“The key was making sure no one was left out, including the elderly who aren’t savvy on their phones, and the foreigners who couldn’t read or keep up with the volume of Chinese messages in the group,” he said.
Zeidan said as an economist it was interesting to see supply chains break down in real life, but the experience had also shown how Chinese communities could band together when the government failed…
In some areas, food supply shortages that triggered widespread anger over the weekend are easing, but migrants, the elderly and itinerant workers remain vulnerable as China pushes ahead with its COVID-zero strategy. Footage of residents being hauled away, a beggar being stomped on and animals being taken by workers in hazmat suits has attracted outrage across China’s social media platforms…
The challenge for the Chinese government is pulling Shanghai out of a spiral of lockdowns while getting jabs to the 52 million elderly residents who remain unvaccinated around the country.
Mercator Institute for China Studies analyst Vincent Brussee said Shanghai had hoped to avoid a total lockdown but was now paying a much higher price…
China’s health system faces raft of challenges as Omicron hits https://t.co/iRTJJndlDl pic.twitter.com/NeriwAVxKl
— Hong Kong Free Press HKFP (@hkfp) April 11, 2022
This was certainly the case in my supermarket in Beijing today. There were far more people than normal, and everyone seemed to be filling one or even two carts.https://t.co/CBgZ21dhPm via @scmpnews
— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) April 10, 2022
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An FDA panel is trying to figure out if there is enough time to revamp Covid vaccines by Fall. The hope is to have a vaccine that works well against all variants — if that's possible https://t.co/qF60bqsJBY
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) April 10, 2022
=====
Hopeful news, from a longer thread:
Lots of uncertainty around what’s happening with Covid in the Northeast right now. Are we at the start of another surge, or will the slow rise continue a little longer and then drop off?
After a string of telehealth and hospital shifts in NYC recently, here are some thoughts: ??
— Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) April 10, 2022
On The Road – Albatrossity – Springtime in Arizona – Week 3
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
214 new cases yesterday per the NYSDOH.
I went shopping yesterday, saw very few masks anywhere I went. No one gave me any grief about the mask I was wearing, though.
New Deal democrat
Very few US States updated yesterday. Of those that did, NY and NJ reported continued increases. Nationally cases rose for the 6th day in a row, from their low of 28,400 to 31,800. Deaths were flat at 525.
In Europe, the BA.2 wave has peaked everywhere.
Tomorrow I expect the CDC to report that BA.2 makes up about 85% of cases in the US, and over 90% in the Northeast. If the US follows Europe’s pattern, cases in the Northeast should peak shortly. It is possible the lack of a peak yet has to do with the wholesale abandonment of mitigation measures like wearing masks in formerly compliant regions.
Baud
?? had Trudeau instead of Trump.
rikyrah
I always am learning through these posts. Thanks, AL.
YY_Sima Qian
On 4/10 Mainland China reported 1,164 new domestic confirmed (90 previously asymptomatic), 26,345 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 domestic suspect cases.
Guangdong Province reported 19 new domestic confirmed & 18 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 10 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 7 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 111 active domestic confirmed & 200 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic (1 each at Fangchenggang & Chongzuo) cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 13 active domestic confirmed (4 each at Fangchenggang & Baise, 3 at Qinzhou, & 1 each at Guilin & Yulin) & 197 active domestic asymptomatic cases (83 at Fangchenggang, 41 at Baise, 18 at Chongzuo, 45 at Qinzhou, 5 at Guilin, 3 at Beihai, & 2 at Nanning) in the province. 3 sites at Qinzhou are currently at Medium Risk.
Hunan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases were a released from isolation. There currently are 19 active domestic confirmed & 7 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 3 sites at Changsha & 1 village at Hengyang are currently at Medium Risk.
At Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 5 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed (1 each at Hinggan League, Hohhot & Chifeng, & 4 at Tongliao) & 7 active domestic asymptomatic (4 at Hohhot, 2 at Tongliao & 1 at Hinggan League) cases in the province. 1 residential compound at Chifeng is currently at Medium Risk.
Tianjin Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. 17 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 11 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 16 active domestic confirmed 32 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shandong Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 13 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 19 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 48 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 228 active domestic confirmed cases & 1,154 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As not all of the administrative divisions in the province provide data on recoveries, I cannot track the count of active cases in all of the administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Shanxi Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (mild, at Taiyuan) & 3 new domestic asymptomatic (2 at Taiyuan & 1 at Yuncheng) cases, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 44 active domestic confirmed (32 at Taiyuan, 5 Xinzhou, 4 at Yuncheng, & 1 each at Datong, Jinzhong & Linfen) & 17 active domestic asymptomatic (12 at Taiyuan, 3 at Yuncheng, 1 each at Changzhi & Yangquan) cases remaining.
Hebei Province reported 100 domestic asymptomatic cases. 5 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 76 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 87 active domestic confirmed & 1,621 active asymptomatic case in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Liaoning Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic) & 12 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 17 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 84 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 83 active domestic confirmed & 683 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Heilongjiang Province reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 19 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 14 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 136 active domestic confirmed & 150 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jilin Province reported 187 new domestic confirmed (31 previously asymptomatic, 178 mild & 9 moderate) & 797 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 977 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 1,358 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. As the province does not consistently break down recoveries by confirmed & asymptomatic cases or by jurisdictions, I can no longer track the count of active case counts in the different jurisdictions.
Beijing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 site is currently at High Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 914 new domestic confirmed (47 previously asymptomatic) & 25,173 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 24,794 of the new domestic positive cases were already under quarantine, & the rest from screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (effectively meaning from the community). 291 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 3,470 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 6,306 active domestic confirmed & 186,992 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 13 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shaanxi Province reported 7 new domestic confirmed (6 mild & 1 moderate, 6 at Xi’an & 1 at Weinan) cases. 3 of the cases at Xi’an are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine, 2 via screening of residents under movement control & 1 via community screening. The case at Weinan arrived from elsewhere on 4/9. 1 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 35 active domestic confirmed & 3 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 2 sites at Xi’an are currently at Medium Risk.
Hubei Province reported 33 new domestic asymptomatic (12 at Wuhan, 9 at Ezhou, 10 at Huanggang, 2 at Enshi Prefecture) cases. 10 of the cases at Wuhan are traced close contact under centralized quarantine, & 2 via community screening. 5 of the cases at Ezhou are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine, 1 at fever clinic & 3 are that case’s close contacts. All of the cases at Huanggang are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. Both cases at Enshi came from elsewhere & tested positive upon arrival. 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (mild, at Enshi Prefecture) & 131 active domestic asymptomatic (45 at Suizhou, 36 at Wuhan, 12 each at Ezhou & Huangshi, 5 at Xiaogan, 3 at Enshi Prefecture, 15 at Huanggang, 2 at Jinzhou, & 1 at Xiangyang) cases in the province.
Jiangsu Province reported 7 new domestic confirmed & 46 new domestic asymptomatic cases. The province no longer publishes recoveries, so I cannot keep track of the active case counts.
Anhui Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic) & 68 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered & 71 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 24 active confirmed & 631 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Zhejiang Province reported 9 new domestic confirmed (3 previously asymptomatic) & 28 new domestic asymptomatic case. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported versus domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases in the province.
At Gansu Province 8 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 72 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province no longer breaks down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in the administrative divisions.
At Wuzhong in Ningxia “Autonomous” Region there currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
Fujian Province reported 9 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) & 9 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 60 domestic confirmed case recovered & 198 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 269 active domestic confirmed & 913 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered & 6 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 35 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
Hainan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (both previously asymptomatic) & 5 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Sanya, 3 of the new positive cases are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine, & 2 via screening of residents under centralized quarantine. There currently are 52 active domestic confirmed (10 at Haikou, 32 at Sanya, 5 at Qionghai, 2 each at Danzhou & Lingshui County, & 1 at Wanning) & 68 active domestic asymptomatic cases (61 at Sanya, 4 at Haikou, & 1 each at Lingshui County, Qionghai & Wanning).
At Guizhou Province there currently are 5 active domestic confirmed (1 at Guiyang & 4 at Xingyi in Qianxinan Prefecture) & 4 active domestic asymptomatic (2 at Xingyi in Qianxinan Prefecture, & 1 each at Puding County in Anshun & Liupanshui) cases.
Jiangxi Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (mild) & 19 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 3 domestic confirmed case recovered & 30 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 17 active domestic confirmed & 191 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Henan Province reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases (2 at Zhengzhou & 1 each at Anyang & Shangqiu), all construction workers returning from Shanghai (building temporary hospitals there) & under centralized quarantine since arrival. 12 domestic confirmed case recovered & 31 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 20 active domestic confirmed & 190 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 2 sites at Zhoukou, as well as 1 at Luohe & 2 at Shangqiu, are currently at Medium Risk.
At Chongqing Municipality there currently are 4 active domestic confirmed & 8 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
Sichuan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (both previously asymptomatic, both at Chengdu) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Mianyang) cases. The case at Mianyang recently returned from area w/ active outbreak & under centralized quarantine since arrival. As the province does not break down recovered cases between domestic & imported, I cannot keep track of the count of active domestic positive cases there. 3 residential compounds at Leshan are currently at Medium Risk.
At Qinghai Province there currently are 11 active domestic confirmed & 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Yunnan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 8 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered & 9 new domestic asymptomatic were released from isolation. There currently are 16 active domestic confirmed & 114 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 4/10, Mainland China reported 20 new imported confirmed cases (9 previously asymptomatic, 0 in Guangdong), 66 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 1,378 confirmed cases recovered (79 imported), 2,364 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (85 imported) & 99 were reclassified as confirmed cases (9 imported), & 26,796 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 22,395 active confirmed cases in the country (370 imported), 76 in serious condition (all domestic), 219,896 active asymptomatic cases (899 imported), 28 suspect cases (all imported). 457,580 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 4/9, 3,297.551M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 2.343M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 4/11 , Hong Kong reported 1,407 new positive cases, 13 imported & 1,394 domestic (685 via RT-PCR & 709 from rapid antigen tests), 52 deaths (8 fully vaccinated, including 1 boosted) + 5 backlogged deaths.
On 4/11, Taiwan reported 630 new positive cases, 191 imported & 439 domestic.
YY_Sima Qian
Given the community cases found at Wuhan & adjacent cities (such Ezhou), the city has required all passengers on the metro to hold negative RT-PCR results w/in 48 hrs. to gain entry, likewise w/ all students K-12. Many work places have implemented the same requirement. Our district hurriedly arranged for mass screening of all residents this evening, announced in the late afternoon.
Matt McIrvin
@NeenerNeener: I have never been harassed about wearing a mask, though I’ve worn it in some places up in NH were almost nobody wears them. Being an obviously middle-aged white guy probably helps.
Matt McIrvin
As for what’s happening in the Northeast, I’ve been watching the wastewater closely and I still don’t see any signs of the increasing curve in metro Boston hitting a peak. The convexity of the curve is hard to judge because the numbers are very noisy and jumpy with large error bars just from statistical sampling issues. It keeps going up though.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 8,112 new Covid-19 cases yesterday in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 4,325,818 cases. It also reported 12 deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 35,292 deaths – 0.82% of the cumulative reported total, 0.84% of resolved cases.
Malaysia’s nationwide Rt stands at 0.82.
88 confirmed cases and 86 suspected cases are in ICU; of these patients, 50 confirmed cases and 60 suspected cases are on ventilators. Meanwhile, 15,765 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,144,728 patients recovered – 95.8% of the cumulative reported total.
One new cluster was reported yesterday, for a cumulative total of 6,950 clusters. 130 clusters are currently active; 6,820 clusters are now inactive.
8,087 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. 25 new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 38,820 doses of vaccine on 10th April: 4,079 first doses, 28,469 second doses, and 6,272 booster doses. The cumulative total is 69,221,371 doses administered: 27,561,984 first doses, 25,949,861 second doses, and 15,922,033 booster doses. 84.4% of the population have received their first dose, 79.5% their second dose, and 48.8% their booster dose.
Matt McIrvin
…What the curve looks like is kind of like the mostly Delta-driven increase in in the Northeast in early fall 2021 before Omicron really hit us. Presumably the mechanism is different: then it was a variant with lower transmissibility (though it was higher than what we’d seen before); now it’s a variant with far higher transmissibility hitting a population with high prior infection, which slows it down.
germy
Ohio Mom
Re: NYC Mayor Adams going maskless to an event honoring people with disabilities: Ugh.
Many people with disabilities are high-risk for complications and death if they get Covid. For various reasons, depending on their disability and its characteristics.
One of the few things Ohio’s Governor has ever done right is give disabled people priority when the vaccines first became available.
Our county DD board called us and asked if Ohio Son wanted a shot — Son wasn’t at particular risk but they weren’t going to get into sorting their clients into risk groups. Then a few weeks later, they called again to see if his caretakers (us) wanted shots too. This was when the rest of the country was frantically calling around looking for available slots.
Ken
I can’t help but speculate this is from tens of thousands of family conversations something like this:
SHE: “Hon, is Tucker still saying that vaccinations are a plot by Biden and Fauci to take away our freedoms?”
HE: “No, now the danger is that Disney is grooming children for sex slavery, and the evidence is on Hunter Biden’s laptop.”
SHE: “Hmm… Maybe we should go get a vaccination?”
YY_Sima Qian
The massive Omicron BA.2 wave in Hong Kong did not doom China’s “Dynamic Zero COVID” strategy’s but the wave in Shanghai could. There is border control w/ Hong Kong, but none w/ Shanghai. Trucks traveling to & from Hong Kong have to go through a couple of border crossings, where all drivers are tested. Trucks & drivers traveling to & from Shanghai have many avenues to travel. Just about every city level administration division is resorting to testing all truck drivers entering their jurisdictions. If they came from an area w/ active outbreaks, & their destination is in the jurisdiction, then the drivers are placed under centralized quarantine. If they are just passing through, a positive result will be shared w/ the next jurisdictions down the road, who then flag the truck down & places in the driver into isolation.
The current prevalence in Shanghai (also was the case in Changchun in Jilin Province) is high enough that the standard lock down SOPs are breaking down. People are likely getting infected during mass screening events (if not waiting in line then while people are crowding into elevators to go to testing sites in the courtyard of the residential compounds, while wearing surgical masks). Traced close contacts are likely getting infected on the way to quarantine (positive cases are transported in negative ambulances, but close contacts are crowded into buses), & infected in quarantine (which has happened in Mainland China, Hong Kong & Taiwan). Delivery persons, nurses taking swabs, community workers & volunteers are getting infected & becoming vectors themselves. When they test positive (even if asymptomatic), they are sent to isolation & their close contacts (often the colleagues) are sent to quarantine, which decimates the the ranks of human work force that makes a supported lock down function. There isn’t a food shortage problem in Shanghai, there is a last km (or last 100 m) logistics problem. The huge case load & number of close contacts has long blown past existing capacity for isolation & quarantine. The authorities have scrambled to to retrofit more temporary hospitals & quarantine centers, but that inevitably results in some poorly renovated & poorly managed facilities. Now 10s of thousands of close contacts are being sent to neighboring Jiangsu & Zhejiang Provinces.
None of the above challenges apply to areas w/ low prevalence, which is why jurisdictions in China are ordering mass screenings & localized lock downs & expanded movement controls when 1 community case is found. China is trying to prevent Shanghai from turning into Hong Kong 2.0, & the rest of the country is trying to avoid becoming Shanghai 2.0.
There are 2 major challenges that may be insurmountable:
China’s dilemma remains the relatively low vaccine update among the > 80 y.o. cohort, which represents the major failure of China’s pandemic response to date. (Given the past success of “Dynamic Zero COVID”, the authorities probably thought they will always have more time to get the most vulnerable vaccinated, until Omicron BA.2 changed the game.) Letting the variant wash over the Chinese population means a few million dead elders. Given the filial piety that still pervades all elements of Chinese society, such an outcome will indeed be regime threatening. That will be the CCP regime’s “Chernobyl”, not what happened in Wuhan or what is happening in Shanghai.
As things stand, as long as the COVID situation in Shanghai festers, successes in the rest of the country will be temporary & constantly on the edge a major damaging outbreak. It will be a miracle if the outbreak in Shanghai can be suppressed & eliminated. I figure China has to hold on for another 3 months, & use it to vaccinate all of the most vulnerable population by any means possible. Or data out of Shanghai shows that Paxlovid & other current therapeutics are so effective even on the unvaccinated elderly that opening up will not be damaging.
YY_Sima Qian
Things in Shanghai are quite varied, some places are fine, some are uncomfortably holding on, some are quite strained & some are bad. My impression from Chinese social media is that the food distribution is improving in the last couple of days. However, as is the case everywhere, those on the margins of society remain the most vulnerable: the elderly & infirm living alone, the itinerant workers, the migrants from other regions w/o local hukous, etc. This has been a recurring tragedy w/ every single city-wide lock down in China to date.
YY_Sima Qian
Ha! I should have read the article A.L. pointed to in the Age before writing my own long comment, it is indeed excellent. The David Fishman quoted in the article has been providing a very good & nuanced running update on the situation in Shanghai (as he experienced it, which he correctly emphasizes) on Twitter.
Another Scott
Thanks for these updates, AL. It’s a great service.
I’m still masking everywhere – it helps with the pollen, also too.
It’s great that cases are far down from the peak, as are hospitalizations and deaths. But I’m very concerned by the lack of timely comprehensive data in the US and the explosion of cases in various places around the world (UK, ROK, cities in China). And the cases closest to me (my boss, my SIL) were within the last few weeks and while “mild” still knocked them down for many days. I still don’t want even a “mild” case. Nope, nope.
It’s not over. Maybe some new nasty variant won’t appear in the coming months, but we cannot count on that. As long as community spread is high, the risk of more dangerous variants is ever present.
There is still too much pontificating about how we know what’s going to happen in the next few months. But we don’t. Yes, “most” recent pandemics lasted a couple of years or so. But this is still a “novel” virus…
Stay safe, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
David Collier-Brown
I’m just a tiny bit unimpressed about how governments are opening up and killing their own citizens…
It is long past time that we have applied the principle of “Responsibility to Protect” to governments which are unable or unwilling to protect their populations from a pandemic.
Canada was one of the authors of the principle, starting with Major-General Romeo Dallaire in 1994. He witnessed the the international community turn a blind eye to the Rwandan genocide, and refused a UN order to withdraw his troops.
Humanitarian intervention is called for, and in North America, that is intervention aimed at the governments of US states and Canadian provinces, as they have jurisdiction over health.
Canada has suffered over 37,00 deaths thus far: it is not an unacceptable assault on sovereignty of a province to stop that. The country and the international community have a moral duty to our citizens that overrides provincial autonomy or “states rights”, and a need to take up the responsibility to ensure the states and provinces make a good-faith attempt to save the lives of their citizens.
The Moar You Know
This line struck me hard, about the grocery buying in Shanghai:
I don’t know a lot of Americans who would give this much of a shit about their neighbors welfare. I can think of two or three at the most.
smith
Much easier said than done. In the US the pro-covid forces have control of the Supreme Court, which has the final say in what the federal government may and may not do. The problem is not one of laws or of officials willing to take appropriate responsibility. It’s a deep-seated cultural deficiency in which a significant percentage of the human population sees no value in collective action that includes anyone beyond their immediate personal circle. Not only will they not participate in collective action that benefits people outside that circle, they will actively sabotage it.
The Moar You Know
@smith: Truth. This is how Americans are; the idea of our national motto being “Fuck You, I Got Mine” is not a comment made in jest but in sorrow.
Yarrow
Someone I know in the UK who is vaxxed and boosted (but not the fourth one) tested positive for Covid several weeks ago. A few days later his wife did as well (also vaxxed and boosted). They were both symptomatic with symptoms like a bad cold. She’s okay now but he is not. He’s in his 60’s, somewhat overweight, and has high blood pressure. He is really struggling to get past it. He’s just exhausted all the time.
One question I have that isn’t addressed very much is what is the Long Covid risk from getting Covid even if vaxxed and boosted. I have read that it is possible to get Long Covid even when vaxxed. Not sure who gets it and why. I do not want it. I feel awful for the kids who get Long Covid. It’s definitely happening and we just kind of ignore it.
Yarrow
@germy:
This is not even remotely the case at my local supermarkets. My neighborhood is fairly racially mixed and on any given trip it’s a completely crapshoot as to who is masked and who isn’t. Might be plenty of white shoppers masked and black shoppers not masked. The next time it’s the opposite. A young Latino guy might be masked and the next Latino guy of similar age might not be. The old white couple shopping together might both be masked and the next old white couple won’t be. For awhile it seemed like the Asian families were more reliably masked and then more recently that hasn’t been true. I can’t find any predictability about who’s wearing masks at all.
Matt McIrvin
@Yarrow:
It is very hard to study because the clinical definition of long COVID is nebulous and some of the symptoms have a high background prevalence–maybe from other infections doing the same kind of thing! “It’s somewhat protective but by no means a guarantee” is about the best I can figure.
Yarrow
@Matt McIrvin: Yeah, that sounds about right. It’s frustrating to me that Long Covid isn’t discussed more as a reason to avoid getting Covid. It’s like it’s not a thing. It IS a thing. Some people who get it have their lives destroyed but we seem to ignore them and largely pretend they don’t exist.
Jeff Del Papa
Northeast surges, personal experience. I am a Boston, MA resident.
well I finally drew the short straw, and tested positive, variant unknown. 7 days ago. While there is a chance I picked it up in NYC, it most likely was another Mass resident that I caught it from, on the drive down to NYC. Yes, I am vaxed and boosted, and would have received shot four, except I didn’t want to be reacting to it on the trip, so was scheduled for 3 days after the return for it
anyhow, I reported it to my GP, and was immediately put on paxlovid. Only side effects noticed were strange tastes, and later some diarrhea.
it’s been 6 days since the positive, and 24 hours since last dose of the paxlovid. I still test positive, so I assume I am still shedding virus.
not going anywhere, but wondering what comes next.
Matt McIrvin
@Yarrow: The people I personally know who are struggling with really extended long COVID symptoms all got it unvaccinated, in the days before the vaccines. But one vaxxed-and-boosted person did end up with a cough that persisted for months. Of course, the same thing happened to me from a nasty cold I got years ago. I think one thing that might come out of the research is just how common it is to get a “minor” infection and not get over it for a really long time.
Fair Economist
Flu Report for 3/28/22-4/3/22
Positivity back up from 6.5% to 8.3%. Lab cases up from 2,924 to 3,924, with 1,759 added to previous weeks. H3N2 continues its unprecedented dominance, 98.5% of all typed flus and 100% of subtyped Type A flus. Hospital admissions up slightly from 2,820 to 2,965.
Mortality due to pneumonia, influenza and COVID down to 8.0% from last week’s 8.3%, into the normal range for a flu season. This reflects falling deaths due to COVID as there are very few flu deaths at present. Influenza now increasing again nationally.
IOW, Surprise! Flu isn’t done with us yet.
smith
@germy: I’m seeing a similar pattern in Chicago, with Black people more likely to mask than whites. However, I’d be more inclined to attribute it to Black people being more aware of their vulnerability and more likely to see taking precautions against covid as a personal issue than a political or cultural one.
Matt McIrvin
@David Collier-Brown: If the population of a liberal democratic country wants to open up and be killed, the extent to which the government can deal with that is limited.
Fair Economist
@Yarrow:
I saw a couple of studies looking at that last summer (so, original and Alpha strains). There was a lot of variance, but the effect seemed to be about a 50% reduction in Long COVID among those who got it, so 50% with an additional multiplier from the protection vs. infection. No studies on the benefits with Omicron yet; it’s too soon. There is also the problem that so many unvaxxed have had COVID already that the unvaxxed control group isn’t really a control anymore. I think in the future we will need to look at “recently boosted” vs. “not recently boosted”.
The UK has reported a substantial increase in the number of people with Long COVID during the Omicron wave, so it’s certainly a significant possibility for somebody infected, even if previously vaxxed or infected, as almost everybody in the UK was.
David Collier-Brown
@Matt McIrvin: Certainly the government of of my province wants me killed, but that’s not necessarily the opinion of the people who live here. Only a few hate me (;-))
Matt McIrvin
@Fair Economist:
But what complicated this picture was that according to at least one of the studies (Israeli, I think), that reduction brought the level of long COVID symptoms down to the background frequency of the same symptoms in uninfected people–so it was consistent with complete eradication of long COVID. Which I don’t personally believe is actually happening. But it’s a sign of difficult statistics and big error bars
If I had to guess, I’d say that long COVID from a breakthrough infection in someone up to date on their shots is more likely if you’re old, just because that’s how every other aspect of COVID seems to work. I have seen some scare takes from proponents of extreme COVID-zero policies that treat long COVID as something completely logically independent of any other aspect of COVID, unaffected by vaccines or age or the severity of a case (one activist tweeter even insisted it was MORE likely in completely asymptomatic cases), and all of that smells extremely suspicious to me.
David Collier-Brown
@smith: And of course, the US doesn’t recognize the ICC, and so would object to humanitarian interventions on behalf of US citizens by other countries or by the court.
smith
@David Collier-Brown: I would say, historically, countries are rarely enthusiastic about another country or international organization intervening in their affairs with the express purpose of “helping them.”
Barbara
@Yarrow: My anecdata is that young men of all races are less likely to be masked wherever I go. Followed by young women. That is not to say that racism didn’t play a strong, even pivotal role in determining overall response to the virus. It did. However, the youngs are still more likely to feel invincible than those around them.
way2blue
I’m in the over 50 crowd, and got my second Moderna booster last week. Infection rate in my county (San Mateo County, CA) has more than doubled in the past few weeks, plus I head overseas in a couple weeks. So glad I was able to get boosted. Albeit, I do mask in indoor public settings like shops & restaurants.
bluefoot
@Jeff Del Papa:
A friend of mine in the Boston area also caught COVID and went on Paxlovid. She said the taste from the medication was “weird” and unpleasant. But better than the alternative. :) She’s young, vaxxed and boosted and still not completely recovered from COVID about 4 weeks since first symptoms.
I hope you recover quickly!
JustRuss
No surprise the number of inoculations in the US is rising, the CDC just approved a second booster shot about a week ago. So those of us who aren’t idiots are getting it done, again.
The news about Paxlovid is encouraging. Has Fox News denounced it yet?