Pawpaw Blacklung of West-by-God, etc., must share a publicity team with the eldest Trump spawn, so adept is he at placing self-aggrandizing PR blather in select media outlets. Politico is mongering rumors to the effect that Manchin, after driving a stake through the heart of Biden’s BBB agenda, will soon reprise his role as Lucy to party placekicker Charlie Brown — and take on the part of head ball-coach too:
“This is really up to Joe [the coal baron Joe, not the scrappy Scanton one — ed.],” one person familiar with the party dynamics said of senior Democrats’ attitude. “It’s basically going to be the Manchin reconciliation bill when all is said and done…”
“This is a matter of Joe Manchin coming up with a bill that he’s comfortable with,” one person familiar with his thinking said. “He is the way he is.”
Yes, and that way is the way of a self-important dickhead who doesn’t bargain in good faith. I cannot believe we’re going to do this again.
Manchin has made clear he wants a smaller bill focused chiefly on climate programs and prescription drug reform that would also unravel the Trump-era tax cuts. Those programs must be permanent, he insists, and roughly half of the savings generated as part of the legislation should go toward shrinking the deficit.
Pardon my skepticism about Manchin’s determination to eliminate the Trump tax cuts. It’s just that both he and Sinema have shielded the Trump tax cuts as if the senators were human bubble-wrap for the entirety of the present congress. So, I’ll believe that shit when I see it.
Manchin aides say he’s been clear that proposals to increase spending on the so-called care economy — such as child and elderly care — need to go through “regular order” and not the reconciliation process. But advocates are holding out hope, partly because the administration and members of Congress have reassured them that it’s possible, despite Manchin’s reticence.
Again, I’ll believe that when I see it. Childcare, elderly care, etc., are womenfolk issues, and as such, they must not only be revenue neutral but have broad bipartisan support from a senate that is 76% male.
This guy I like:
“I reject the notion that we should look to Joe Manchin as the oracle on what is best for America,” Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) told POLITICO recently, warning it’s a waste of time for Democrats to spend months chasing Manchin’s support. “He’s the saboteur of the Build Back Better Act so I see no point in placating the implacable. I have trouble grasping the political logic there.”
You and me both, Rep. Torres, but math is math, and the Biden team probably feels they have to try to squeeze some blood out of the wizened Manchin turnip since the president’s poll numbers are underwater and most political observers think the Dems will get clobbered in November.
I wish them all the luck in the world with their negotiations. They’re going to need it.
Open thread.
germy
How Joe Manchin Knifed the Democrats — and Bailed on Saving Democracy
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Isn’t this counting the chickens before they hatch? How can these political observers possibly know the future?
PST
As do we all. That’s not the point. Without Manchin there aren’t 50 votes, so only the provisions that he supports will get passed. It sucks. It’s not what’s best for America. But it’s better than the alternative. As Betty says, math is math.
sab
We need another Democratic Senator to replace Manchin. Ohio is right next door.
cain
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
They love to play kingmaker. After we win, and we will. We should beat these people over the heads with their own articles.
Martin
@PST: The problem is that with Manchin there aren’t 50 votes.
Baud
Manchin runs to Politico whenever he wants to feel relevant. Nothing he says matters except Yea on a bill that passes the Senate.
ETA: Dealing with Manchin is why the other Dem Senators get paid the big bucks. The rest of us have lives to lead.
germy
The rising national debt?
VOR
The media never points out that the only reason Manchin and Sinema have this power is because the Republicans vote in lockstep against anything which could possibly be a win for Biden. If there was even 3-4 Republican Senators who would occasionally put country over party then Manchin’s bad faith negotiation would be irrelevant.
At the same time, it’s pretty amazing that the rest of the Democratic Senators are unified.
Baud
@germy:
I hadn’t heard of them before.
Kay
@PST:
But they still need Sinema, even if Manchin is sincere, which he isn’t.
I just hope they don’t get sucked into another 6 months of very public defeat on each and every issue by these two. It’s bad for them politically. All of them.
germy
@Baud:
https://rockefellerschool.wvu.edu/
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@germy: of the board members I recognize, the only one who surprises me is Julian Castro. John Delaney, a fifteen-minute presidential candidate last seen on the bottom of Elizabeth Warren’s shoe, is the only other one I recognize as a Democrat
RaflW
I guess he feels he needs to be ‘rewarded’ for taking that difficult vote on Judge Brown Jackson.
/s
Betty Cracker
@Kay: The Politico piece says the White House forbade anyone in the administration to discuss Manchin. Of course, they portray this as deference to Manchin, but it could just as easily be a refusal to get sucked into his drama vortex again.
Old School
@Baud: @germy:
I think Baud means these guys. Founded by Howard Baker, Tom Daschle, Bob Dole, and George Mitchell.
Sure Lurkalot
Why would anyone believe a word that comes out of Senator Windsock’s mouth? Like Trump (and coincidentally my last client), he parrots whatever he hears last.
Screw these people who think funding the “care economy” wouldn’t be an economic winner. Or that they are only women’s issues. Men have children and parents too and more than 50% of households are dual income. Women may bear a majority of the burden of child and elderly care but many people would benefit if those resources were less scarce and more affordable.
sab
TPM says if Roe v Wade fails abortion will be illegal in 39 states.
Happy hunting for those young men. ( I am an old woman.) Har har. These who know that they used to have options. Back to our great- grandmothers’ moral standards.
ETA Not much sex for the guys because iffy consequences.
Martin
@Betty Cracker: Guessing nobody in the WH could get out a sentence containing the word ‘Manchin’ without also including ‘pigfucker’ so they decided to just stick with ‘no comment’.
Cathie from Canada
Bring back earmarks.
Call them something else, but bring them back.
The only way the Dems will get anything done this spring and summer is to bribe their own people.
So do it!
sab
@Betty Cracker: I think that is it. This is a savvy White House. Joe’s people have been around the block many times.
Suzanne
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Good Lord. They make predictions. All of us do it every day. It’s not difficult. They look at polls, read stories, etc.
I am not optimistic about this year. If I was betting, I’d bet that we don’t keep the Senate and the House will be tight.
Martin
@sab: Willing to bet that if RvW falls, the FDA will immediately approve mifepristone+misoprostol for over the counter use.
Doesn’t solve the whole problem, but eliminates the ability of any state to in practice ban abortions before 11 weeks, apart from SB8 type bills.
Baud
@Cathie from Canada:
Earmarks are back.
Sure Lurkalot
@sab: Colorado’s governor has just codified the right to abortion into law, as have a few other states. Now all we have to do is organize is a new Underground Railroad.
kindness
Well it isn’t just letting Manchin write the bill. They also have to get him to get Kyrsten’s OK on anything before another Democrat should touch it.
sab
@Martin: Your acronyms defeated my tiny brain.
Suzanne
@Cathie from Canada:
Absolutely. These schmucks can be bought.
Martin
@Suzanne: We should be able to keep the senate. Dems aren’t defending in any state that Trump won. GA is the tightest race. Dems have decent shots in PA and WI. Map suggests a 2 seat pickup.
As for the House, the current maps are slightly more favorable to Dems than the old maps were. I know the incumbent party is supposed to lose, but we’ve never had a political landscape like the current one before, so I question the predictive power of that.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
The only thing he says – his spokesperson says- in that article is he wants to do something or to the to the tax code and pay the deficit the Trump tax cuts created. It’s not an offer. Once again the reporter has added words to Joe Manchin’s objectives:
In their imagination he makes it clear he wants to unravel the Trump-era tax cuts. I have no idea how he plans on paying down the Trump-generated deficit. Maybe he wants to tax only the bottom half more, like Rick Scott. Rick Scott says that’s “fair”.
Martin
@sab: Willing to bet that if Roe v Wade falls, the Food and Drug Administration will immediately approve mifepristone+misoprostol (chemical abortion medication) for over the counter use.
Doesn’t solve the whole problem, but eliminates the ability of any state to in practice ban abortions before 11 weeks, apart from Texas SB8 (citizens can sue people who get or assisted in getting an abortion) type bills.
Peale
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): there’s an egg shortage thanks to avian flu. If only there were more eggs to count.
Betty
Rather than showcase continuous failures because of Manchin and Sinema, I wish they would have acknowledged a while ago, that any progress on the key issues has to wait until they get 2 more Democrats who support the President. Emphasize to the voters in key elections their responsibility to enable the President. Wishful thinking? Maybe.
Suzanne
@Martin:
Mark Kelly has to run in AZ, and I know Trump lost it in 2020, but I think any other Republican would have won it.
Alison Rose ???
Manchin is so in love with himself, I wouldn’t be surprised to learn he’s had a couple of ribs removed.
What a self-important pompous jackass.
Brachiator
Goddam. I do appreciate me some Betty Cracker snark. Nailed it.
The tax professionals I talk to tell me that their lower income and middle income clients are greatly appreciating the increased tax credits they are getting this year. Certainly, this must be helping people in Manchin’s state as well. I am only mildly surprised that these people are not making their voices heard and that the Democrats are not dong more to try to mobilize them.
But damn, Manchin has got his head up his arse. He cannot keep delaying action. What, is he waiting for the GOP to win the mid terms?
Ben Cisco
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
This is one of the wisest comments you have ever made on this blog. The answer is their full of shit, and half of them are projecting their wishful thinking.
Kay
Joe Manchin believes that Trump and his congressional allies and the crackpot lawyers and Ginni Thomas and the rest of the cast of hundreds “misread” the Electoral Count Act and that “caused” the insurrection.
It was a matter of statutory ambiguity. Had the Supreme Court Justices spouse just had the Electoral Count Act explained to her she would not been an anti-democratic insurrectionist coordinating a coup. He’s a ridiculous person.
Ruckus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
How can these political observers possibly know the future?
Their benefactors paid for it.
And they are not going to give up that gravy train.
Anyway
@Ben Cisco:
How is this different from the frequent questions asking how inflation will affect the elections? Isn’t that a prediction too? I see the inflation question at least once a week from Goku — how is that different from poll projections?
Ruckus
@Baud:
It’s 2 guys sitting in a bar at noon, staring at each other’s empty glasses and wondering if the day will get better if they have another.
You didn’t know who they are because they weren’t wearing their name tags.
Baud
@Betty:
Who is “they” here? The media is never going to do this, and I’m sure the Dems will.
Ben Cisco
@Anyway: Not significantly. I presumed that he figured out that they’re gaming things via projection.
(Which is also true of the inflation question also).
Ruckus
@Martin:
I think they’ve moved on from pigfucker because it just doesn’t quite convey the truth strongly enough……
I’m not sure what that move is called but it does exist. And where he ends up is not something I wish to think about. I likely will have to but I don’t want to.
trollhattan
The Russian general who commanded their military in Syria was just put in charge of Ukraine operations. If it’s verified (and it’s a very recent report) then this is a predictable change, based on what they did in Syria.
James E Powell
@Suzanne:
I expect us to make gains in the senate. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Brachiator
@Betty:
Various tax credits are in place now, for 2021. Biden wanted to continue them and expand on them with his other proposals. Manchin had grumbled, but had not yet declared outright intractable opposition.
So, it is not just that progress has to wait, possibly. It’s that Manchin has killed some programs in order to get his way.
I don’t know if Biden or the Senate leadership could have done more to get an earlier reading of Manchin’s opposition. And despite some bad reporting, Manchin had put out a fairly clear outline of what his ideas were, even though they are stupid ideas.
For what it’s worth, I think that Biden and the Democrats could revise some of their proposals, and need to do so to take into account more of the post-Covid reality. This could let them seize the advantage again.
Otherwise, we know that the Republicans will simply kill any Democratic Party proposal if they do well in the midterms.
Baud
@Brachiator:
I doubt it. They couldn’t afford to be seen as caving to Manchin early or negotiating with themselves.
debbie
Someone’s graduated from the Ted Cruz School of Parenting:
debbie
@James E Powell:
We may want Ohio to flip, but I’m not as optimistic as you. The people here are nutzo.
Kay
@debbie:
I always liked that about the Obamas- how they treated their children like people. I felt like they had really solid boundaries that were non-negotiable.
MisterForkbeard
@Baud: Manchin did not have an early outline of what he wanted or thought was acceptable. Or more precisely, he had several outlines of what he thought was acceptable.
He changed his mind several times, including starting off with a “$3.5 trillion is great” to “$1.5 trillion maximum evar”. He said he was open to voting reforms, and then changed his mind. He refused to actually name lots of the things he regarded as must-includes or must-leaves for months.
In retrospect, I think he really just wanted to delay while gradually tanking Biden’s numbers and hoping someone else would be blamed.
debbie
@Kay:
Agreed. They were never props.
Suzanne
@Betty:
The problem is that, really, all of them are key elections. There’s a lot of people who voted blue this time who expect to be Given A Reason, who expect their vote to be Earned. If we keep saying that we don’t have enough power to win, and that’s why the agenda isn’t advancing, some of them will fall off next time.
I understand voting as a civic duty, but a lot of our voters don’t see it that way. And our majorities are already a hair’s breadth.
Kay
@James E Powell:
I think Mark Kelly is the most vulnerable senator.
Biden’s low poll numbers with independents don’t worry me. They’re flighty and who knows what they want – it’s like chasing smoke. His (relative to a baseline for D’s) low poll numbers with AA and young people worry me. He has to bring his base back and I don’t think he should assume “inflation” or “gas prices”. Ask them. Spend a lot of time talking to them. Find out. It’s labor intensive but they have time and they have money.
West of the Rockies
So sick of this two-faced Gomer. I hope he gets black lung.
Subsole
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Because they are the ones who have a subliminal multimedia megaphone into ordinary Americans’ ear canals, and they are by God going to speak the Dems getting clobbered this fall into reality, no matter how blatantly and lopsidedly they gave to lie, spin, and twist, as punishment for taking their GOP drinking buddies’ toys away.
Geminid
@Suzanne: Democrats will have to work hard to keep Kelly and Warnock in the Senate. Catherine Cortez-Masto has a tough reelection in Nevada, while Maggie Hassan’s path in New Hampshire may be easier. I think we’ll hold these four seats, but that’s not a sure thing.
Ryan is an underdog in Ohio as are Demings in Florida and Beasley in North Carolina. Those races look like they will all be close. Missouri and Iowa are two long shot Senate flips.
Pennsylvania is probably Democrats’ best prospect to win a Republican seat. That’s an open seat, and Bob Casey Jr. won reelection in the last midterm by over 600,000 votes. Wisconsin’s seat is not open, but I like are chances against Ron Johnson.
Kay
@James E Powell:
Obviously not Joe Biden doing interviews. Send the well- compensated, full time people they pay to do politics. I wonder if some of what I perceive as them actually getting worse at this than they have been in the past is a hangover from covid. They have to go back out among the rabble :)
germy
The January 6 Committee Prepares to Go Public
Another Scott
I’ll spare everyone my prognostications since I was off the mark last time. But I will assume that something will pass that will help with the election in November, and we should celebrate it (even as we recognize that it’s not enough – it’s never enough at the beginning). And work like hell to elect more Democrats to the Senate (and keep the House).
Cheers,
Scott.
West of the Rockies
@germy:
Glad to hear it! Weren’t we told that there would be televised hearings starting in March?
germy
@West of the Rockies:
I don’t remember. But I’m looking forward to watching.
West of the Rockies
@Another Scott:
I always admire your good nature and optimistic perspective and try to emulate it myself. But between Russian atrocities and domestic lunacy, I am growing angrier.
I value Adam’s evening posts immensely, but find it hard to see 14 metric tons of bad news offset by a cat picture. I want to see vile people facing vile consequences.
I do not want to be so enraged, but am finding so much to he enraged about, including pointy-nosed Manchin mucking things up.
surfk9
One of the big differences between this election and the last will be in person canvassing. I think the lack of a ground game really hurt us last cycle. Here in California Delta country we are going at it in a big way and I know there is a big push for it all over the State.
Geminid
@West of the Rockies: I was hoping the Committee would start hearings in March. But I look at the series of hearings as something that will be good when I get it.
I don’t look for a protracted series of hearings. Maybe a dozen or so soon, and a dozen or so later in the year. Then an extensive report, hopefully issued before the midterm election. I think the commitee intends to wrap up it’s work before this Congress ends.
I like the January 6 Committee’s compactness. There are two Republican members, and (I think) seven Democrats. I think they will work together to make an efficient and effective presentation.
zhena gogolia
@debbie: So gross.
West of the Rockies
@Geminid:
I hope you are correct. It would be wonderful if the hearings became must-see TV. Timed right and with compelling information, the hearings could, indeed, prove catastrophic to Republicans. They could render Trumpism radioactive and thus diminish the rightwing lurch the world has taken over the last number of years.
PsiFighter37
I dislike Manchin as much as any of us do, but I think progressive Democrats really should shut their trap when it comes to talking about him. What the hell do they think badmouthing him in the press is going to do? Just mind-blowingly stupid IMO. Talk about a surefire way of ensuring nothing happens, which I am sure is the exact goal of the ‘Squad’ members and other types who love to whine about nothing ever happening than, you know, actually doing something.
debbie
@West of the Rockies:
I heard they’d start in May.
Ruckus
@West of the Rockies:
He made his money being on the money end of coal, not on the actual work of mining coal. Yes black lung is/was more prevalent in WV than other places but getting it usually means actually having contact with coal. He was in contact with the green stuff not the black stuff.
zhena gogolia
@PsiFighter37: I agree.
sukabi
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): they can’t foresee the future, but what they are doing is framing the narrative and setting expectations….it also helps build in a defeatist attitude and keeps folks from swinging for the fences and trying something new and different.
sukabi
@PsiFighter37: they should redouble their efforts in trying to peel off a few repubs so Manchin can’t play Lucy….
Baud
@PsiFighter37:
@zhena gogolia:
Why are people talking about Manchin outside of this thread?
Ruckus
@PsiFighter37:
This is a good point.
There are reasons to be pissed and he’s one of them but there is scant room for error here, given the margins. There is the time it’s taking to get down to legal business – which always takes a lot longer than people think it should, there are those on our side that are at the very least attention whores, there is a problem that the two sides are at rather insurmountable odds and there is a feeling that we are failing as a nation. And I don’t think we are all that far removed from that possibility – but. One of our big problems has way, way overstepped his position and country and the world and stopping him is going to be tough, because of the possible consequences. It is telling though that in his quite possibly stepping on his dick he had shown how involved he was in our business. If that could be used that might make things a bit better here at home.
trollhattan
@Baud:
Because he’s an example of somebody who’s done an amazing job and is being recognized more and more.
Also pants.
Baud
@trollhattan:
In fairness, I too would wear pants if I were riding a horse.
Starfish
@sukabi: Just assume that progressives are going to show up when they didn’t get any of BBB, no student loan reform, and nothing on climate change?
West of the Rockies
@Ruckus:
I’m aware. I know he was no miner; he’s just one of many possibly destroying the planet for future generations and helping shred voting rights for our constituency. But, hey, a multimillionaire has to make a buck.
Baud
@Starfish:
I expect every decent person to show up.
Ksmiami
@trollhattan: blast the Russians to hell.
end this…now- not tomorrow, not a week from now… Rt fucking now
Starfish
@Baud: Except the ones that got disenfranchised because the Voting Rights Act couldn’t get passed, right?
Baud
@Starfish:
If they are prevented from showing up because of outside forces, they get a pass.
zhena gogolia
@Baud: I have no idea. Now when I see his name, my eyes glaze over.
debbie
I can’t embed tweets on this iPad, but this is worth seeing. I promise.
https://twitter.com/susanvotesblue/status/1513325067735687170?s=21&t=S6IBEpRsDvyHn9kDieiIug
Suzanne
@Baud:
But as Adlai Stevenson noted, you need a majority.
Baud
@Suzanne:
No argument here.
Ruckus
@West of the Rockies:
But, hey, a multimillionaire has to make a buck.
Does he have to be so damn greedy about anyone else actually having a life?
Money makes shitty people shittier than they already are because more than enough is never enough and they can’t believe that anyone else can be their equal if their bank account is smaller.
I’m just trying to figure out if having money makes them greedier or if they were just as big of assholes when they weren’t wealthier than most. I’ve always thought it would be nice not to have to worry about money but then I see people who shouldn’t have a monetary care in the world only becoming greedier and I think maybe there is something to not being an even so so wealthy fuck. Maybe actual struggle to live isn’t all that bad……
Starfish
@debbie:
The picture is from 2018.
https://twitter.com/LazyyMillennial/status/97726794079693619
I wanted it to be real, but with things written on a white background, I can never tell if someone took a photo with a blank thing, and then other people updated it for the laughs.
debbie
@Starfish:
I choose to believe it because it’s Ted Cruz.
Another Scott
@Starfish: Looks legit.
The oldest version is hers, at least in TinEye.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
West of the Rockies
@Ruckus:
I concur. Having to struggle (not for everything mind you) can create character and integrity and gratitude.
Of course, then you have the Trumps of the world whose personal narrative would have it that they’ve overcome so much and achieved so much through hard work (as opposed to inherited wealth, cheating, lying, stealing, etc.).
gene108
@germy:
From your “Rolling Stone” link.
Senators are such fucking spoiled motherfuckers. If you don’t kiss up to them, they’ll just pout even if the country’s burning.
Baud
@gene108:
Sinema would not have been a lone holdout. Manchin would.
Starfish
@debbie: I believe it because Texas Democrats have a good sense of humor.
Baud
Deleted
Another Scott
In other news, …
Horrible.
Thread.
Infuriating.
Grr…,
Scott.
James E Powell
I had kinda sorta promised myself I would no longer talk about the nominally Democratic senators who are determined to destroy Biden & the Democrats. It’s pointless and it upsets my stomach. I will just say I agree with everything Betty Cracker said in the OP.
I would like to see & hear Democrats attacking Republicans.
stacib
@Kay: My guess from talking to my friends, and my 40 year old politically-involved daughter – it’s the lack of urgency to the VRA. I like Biden, and he was always my first choice, but his vote will NEVER be in jeopardy. There are a lot of folks who look like me who are increasingly worried that this administration has put voting rights behind the rest of his agenda. A lot of folks feel betrayed. We showed up and showed out in 2020. Although I fully appreciate Ketanji Brown-Jackson, she will make very little difference on this court in every day lives. Losing our vote, man that’s a tough one to even think about.
Ruckus
@West of the Rockies:
SFB is an exceptional case. Not all that exceptional mind you but still, a brain of mush is a terrible thing to foster on anyone. His parents must have been so, so, so, OK what’s that word I’m looking for?
Proud? Really? Can standards be that low even for parents?
Embarrassed? Really? Can standards be that low even for parents?
Ashamed! There it is! Now only if it were true……..
TriassicSands
A good start would be to tax profits from fossil fuel production at 99%.