The United States on Wednesday renewed the COVID-19 public health emergency, allowing millions of Americans to keep getting free tests, vaccines and treatments for at least three more months. https://t.co/Jyx3z9Pvp2
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) April 14, 2022
“We’re dealing with numbers that humans are just not able to comprehend.”
COVID-19's toll in the U.S. is nearing 1 million — a number so big it can feel abstract. But within that number are the stories of individuals lost, and the people they left behind. https://t.co/AhOF71DHT4— The Associated Press (@AP) April 13, 2022
======
(Qatar’s World Cup runs from November 21 – December 18)
This is very good. @LiYuan6 puts the Shanghai lockdown in context. https://t.co/MHnakJpouw
— Emily Rauhala (@emilyrauhala) April 13, 2022
Shanghai city’s police department has warned that anyone who violates COVID-19 lockdown rules will be dealt with strictly, with the tally of new cases exceeding 25,000 https://t.co/FHwZujJvdf pic.twitter.com/YsXfwVs0tf
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 13, 2022
More than two years into a pandemic that started in China, possibly the most severe lockdown of all is happening now in Shanghai – the world's largest port. And there's much more China suffering to come. Read my colleague @RobinBHarding https://t.co/oCWmhuLyC8
— Edward Luce (@EdwardGLuce) April 13, 2022
Hong Kong has reported 1,193,023 Covid-19 cases and 8,886 deaths since the start of the pandemic. Full, trusted coverage on HKFP: https://t.co/w8LTgNga80 pic.twitter.com/Ves5F3fQXr
— Hong Kong Free Press HKFP (@hkfp) April 14, 2022
Britain approved Valneva's COVID-19 vaccine, making it the first European country to give a nod to the French firm's coronavirus shot, that is easier to store and involves a process widely used in making flu and polio vaccines https://t.co/VMQMs3hGdk pic.twitter.com/LZnzmVO9Iu
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 14, 2022
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Regular #Covid vaccines don't provide enough protection for many people with cancer. A new approach aims at helping these vulnerable people, @angRchen reports. https://t.co/fMG4xFc0e2
— Helen Branswell ?? (@HelenBranswell) April 13, 2022
======
Jacqueline Dupree, Washington Post COVID number cruncher:
NOW I feel comfortable looking at the numbers in recent weeks and saying that, despite the uneven reporting cadence, there is now clearly a surge apparent. (Look at the green line, which is 7-day avg, not blue bars. which are the reports by day). pic.twitter.com/lT5GjSok1x
— JDLand ?? (@JDLand) April 13, 2022
That said, these numbers are still really low. The current seven-day average of 31.46 cases per day per 100k is far, far, far, far below the peak in early January of more than 315 cases per day per 100k. This chart is per capita 7-day avg since early December. (4/x) pic.twitter.com/meZDamvUk6
— JDLand ?? (@JDLand) April 13, 2022
On The Road – Captain C – Atlanta November 2019 Part 2: The Georgia Aquarium part 1
rikyrah
Does Cousin Omicron’s little brother variant have his own name yet???
rikyrah
So, Murdering Joe wrote that shyt in the WSJ??
Baud
These covid variants are being designated like software updates.
Re: Scarborough. I can understand the frustration of universal mask mandates, but who gets angry about transportation? It’s not something most people do regularly.
NotMax
Coughing, tea or milk?
Locally,
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
695 new cases yesterday. Ugh. No sign of peaking yet.
One of my co-workers announced that her 20-something son just tested positive for COVID. He hasn’t been feeling well for the last 3 weeks, but the symptoms weren’t classic COVID until yesterday, and they hit him hard. He’s vaccinated but not boosted.
Baud
The reports from wastewater testing seem to have stopped. That seems the best way to track the progress of the current surge.
Dorothy A. Winsor
We’re getting antigen tests this evening because we’re leaving for Holland tomorrow. We’re taking a Viking Tulips and Windmills cruise when we get there, and Viking requires the test. So I expect to be sleeping in an N95 mask on the plane. I’m glad the funding for tests was renewed though. I was worried the test site we’re going to would have closed
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
OT:
How worried she we be about this?
Elon Musk Offers to Buy Twitter with $41 Billion Cash Offer:
Musk is going to probably give Trump his beloved megaphone back just in time for 2024
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: He’s a WATB. I wonder how often Mika has to change his diapers.
Baud
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Happy cruising!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
The SF Chronicle’s own county reporting for the COVID in the SF Bay Area shows COVID constantly down for all eight counties. What is that article talking about? The state numbers are slightly up.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: Huh? Biobot’s wastewater surveillance program is definitely tracking it in Massachusetts and elsewhere like they always have. I’ve been watching their numbers closely.
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Depends how you feel about Twitter.
Google+ is ready for its comeback!
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
AL stopped collecting the tweets for some reason.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 10,052 new Covid-19 cases yesterday in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 4,352,611 cases. It also reported 22 deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 35,363 deaths – 0.81% of the cumulative reported total, 0.84% of resolved cases.
Malaysia’s nationwide Rt stands at 0.85.
63 confirmed cases and 98 suspected cases are in ICU; of these patients, 41 confirmed cases and 58 suspected cases are on ventilators. Meanwhile, 15,893 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,196,656 patients recovered – 96.3% of the cumulative reported total.
Three new clusters were reported yesterday, for a cumulative total of 6,958 clusters. 113 clusters are currently active; 6,845 clusters are now inactive.
10,031 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. 21 new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 47,622 doses of vaccine on 13th April: 5,599 first doses, 34,384 second doses, and 7,639 booster doses. The cumulative total is 69,370,702 doses administered: 27,578,181 first doses, 26,054,361 second doses, and 15,950,859 booster doses. 84.5% of the population have received their first dose, 79.8% their second dose, and 48.8% their booster dose.
lowtechcyclist
@rikyrah: The 9/11 terrorists killed 3000 people, and >20 years later, we still have to have our luggage and carry-ons scanned, and take our shoes off to go through security. I don’t see him complaining about this.
Covid’s killed 1,000,000 Americans in two years (including a bunch of days where more than 3000 people died of Covid), but wearing a mask in airports and on the plane is too much of a burden for him.
Fuck him with rusty farm implements.
lowtechcyclist
“still no evidence that COVID-19 vaccination is linked to male infertility”
But Covid itself is definitely linked to male infertility. Dead men don’t reproduce.
YY_Sima Qian
On 4/13 Mainland China reported 2,999 new domestic confirmed (344 previously asymptomatic), 26,318 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 domestic suspect cases.
Guangdong Province reported 47 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) & 21 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 8 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 20 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 168 active domestic confirmed & 193 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 129 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Fangchenggang) cases, 117 persons living in “closed loops” & 12 traced close contact under centralized quarantine. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 13 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed (4 at Baise, 2 at Qinzhou, & 1 each at Guilin & Yulin) & 376 active domestic asymptomatic cases (272 at Fangchenggang, 42 at Baise, 17 at Chongzuo, 41 at Qinzhou, 3 at Guilin, & 1 at Nanning) in the province. 3 sites at Qinzhou are currently at Medium Risk.
Hunan Province did not report any new positive cases. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 16 active domestic confirmed & 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. All areas in the province are now at Low Risk.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic (2 at Hinggan League & 1 at Wuhai) case, 2 traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & a truck driver coming from elsewhere & had tested positive at neighboring Alxa Banner. 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed (1 each at Hinggan League & Hohhot, 2 at Chifeng, & 3 at Tongliao) &7 active domestic asymptomatic (4 at Hinggan League, 2 at Tongliao Tongliao & 1 at Wuhai) cases in the province. 1 residential compound at Chifeng is currently at Medium Risk.
Tianjin Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. 7 domestic confirmed case recovered & 12 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed 16 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shandong Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 28 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 19 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 64 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 166 active domestic confirmed cases & 949 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As not all of the administrative divisions in the province provide data on recoveries, I cannot track the count of active cases in all of the administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Shanxi Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed (3 at Taiyuan & 1 at Shuozhou) & 4 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Taiyuan) cases, all workers at a logistics center, found via regular screening. 4 domestic confirmed case recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 43 active domestic confirmed (35 at Taiyuan, 2 at Xinzhou, 4 at Yuncheng, & 1 each at Datong & Shuozhou) & 26 active domestic asymptomatic (22 at Taiyuan, 2 at Yuncheng, 1 each at Changzhi & Yangquan) cases remaining.
Hebei Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 30 domestic asymptomatic cases. 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 127 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 45 active domestic confirmed & 1,020 active asymptomatic case in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Liaoning Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 32 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 15 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 102 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 43 active domestic confirmed & 488 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Heilongjiang Province reported 7 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 25 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 11 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 98 active domestic confirmed & 115 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jilin Province reported 325 new domestic confirmed (214 previously asymptomatic, 317 mild & 8 moderate & 1 serious) & 674 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1,123 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 1,967 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. As the province does not consistently break down recoveries by confirmed & asymptomatic cases or by jurisdictions, I can no longer track the count of active case counts in the different jurisdictions.
Beijing Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (mild), a traced close contact under centralized quarantine. 1 site is currently at High Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 2,573 new domestic confirmed (114 previously asymptomatic) & 25,146 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 26,748 of the new domestic positive cases were already under quarantine, & the rest from screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (effectively meaning from the community). 737 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 15,406 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 9,612 active domestic confirmed (9 serious) & 215,243 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 13 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shaanxi Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (1 mild & 1 moderate, 1 each at Xi’an & Weinan) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic (both at Xi’an) cases, 3 traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & a person arriving from elsewhere on 4/13 & tested positive upon arrival. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 34 active domestic confirmed & 5 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 2 sites at Xi’an are currently at Medium Risk.
Hubei Province reported 42 new domestic asymptomatic (22 at Wuhan, 17 at Ezhou, 2 at Huanggang, & 1 at Yichang) cases. 4 of the cases at Wuhan are traced close contact under centralized quarantine, 17 constructions workers returning from Shanghai & under centralized quarantine upon arrival, & 1 via community screening. The cases at Huanggang & Ezhou are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. The case at Yichang is truck driver coming from elsewhere. 7 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed (2 mild & 1 moderate, 1 each at Enshi Prefecture, Huanggang & Yichang) & 242 active domestic asymptomatic (41 at Suizhou, 55 at Wuhan, 39 each at Ezhou, 11 at Huangshi, 3 at Xiaogan, 4 at Enshi Prefecture, 41 at Huanggang, 2 each at Jinzhou & Jingmen) cases in the province.
Jiangsu Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed & 50 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 39 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. The currently are 87 active domestic confirmed & 737 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks
Anhui Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 48 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 8 domestic confirmed case recovered & 115 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 16 active confirmed & 590 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Zhejiang Province reported 9 new domestic confirmed (4 previously asymptomatic) & 10 new domestic asymptomatic case. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported versus domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases in the province.
At Gansu Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered & 15 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 42 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province no longer breaks down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in the administrative divisions.
At Wuzhong in Ningxia “Autonomous” Region there currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
Fujian Province reported 9 new domestic confirmed (6 previously asymptomatic) & 15 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 36 domestic confirmed case recovered & 154 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 179 active domestic confirmed & 492 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 23 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
Hainan Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed (all previously asymptomatic, all at Sanya) cases. There currently are 90 active domestic confirmed (10 at Haikou, 69 at Sanya, 5 at Qionghai, 3 at Lingshui County, 2 at Danzhou, & 1 at Wanning) & 37 active domestic asymptomatic cases (31 at Sanya, 4 at Haikou, & 1 each at Qionghai & Wanning).
At Guizhou Province 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed (all at Xingyi in Qianxinan Prefecture) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic (both at Xingyi in Qianxinan Prefecture) cases.
Jiangxi Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (mild) & 20 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 4 domestic confirmed case recovered & 38 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 14 active domestic confirmed & 134 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Henan Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed (all mild, 3 at Anyang & 1 at Xinyang) & 42 new domestic asymptomatic (3 at Luohe, 9 at Zhengzhou, 27 at Anyang, & 1 each at Puyang, Xinyang & Zhoukou) cases. The cases at Anyang, Puyang, Xinyang, Zhengzhou & Zhoukou are construction workers returning from Shanghai & under centralized quarantine since arrival. 2 of the cases at Luohe are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & 1 is a recent arrival from elsewhere & tested positive upon arrival. 3 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 25 active domestic confirmed & 225 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 2 sites at Zhoukou, as well as 2 at Luohe & 2 at Shangqiu, are currently at Medium Risk.
Chongqing Municipality reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, via regular screening of persons in high risk occupations. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 5 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
Sichuan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. As the province does not break down recovered cases between domestic & imported, I cannot keep track of the count of active domestic positive cases there. 1 residential compound at Leshan remains at Medium Risk.
Qinghai Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (both mild) & 12 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Xining, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. There currently are 13 active domestic confirmed & 31 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Yunnan Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed & 7 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 7 new domestic asymptomatic were released from isolation. There currently are 15 active domestic confirmed & 102 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 4/13, Mainland China reported 21 new imported confirmed cases (3 previously asymptomatic, 0 in Guangdong), 73 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 2,024 confirmed cases recovered (27 imported), 18,188 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (107 imported) & 347 were reclassified as confirmed cases (3 imported), & 37,636 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 22,822 active confirmed cases in the country (308 imported), 78 in serious condition (all domestic), 266,230 active asymptomatic cases (844 imported), 15 suspect cases (all imported). 444,823 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 4/13, 3,305.884M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 2.758M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 4/14, Hong Kong reported 1,043 new positive cases, 23 imported & 1,020 domestic (556 via RT-PCR & 464 from rapid antigen tests), 33 deaths (none fully vaccinated) + 21 backlogged deaths.
On 4/14, Taiwan reported 982 new positive cases, 108 imported & 874 domestic.
New Deal democrat
Nationwide cases continued to slowly rise, at 33,500. Hospitalizations rose to 10,013. Deaths declined to 510.
Regionally cases in the West are in decline, flat in the South, and rising in the Northeast and Midwest. Noteworthy States include CA and TX, where cases are flat. NY had a significant decline today, but on a weekly basis I cannot see any definitive deceleration there or in NJ.
The Jurisdictions with the worst BA.2 outbreaks are VT, at 33 cases per 100,000, followed by RI, DC, PR, AK, MA, NY, CO, NJ, and NH at 21. There are still 9 States under 3 cases per 100,000: WY, SD, LA, SC, MO, AR, IN, ID, and MT. BA.2 is spreading the most in areas of high population density, and has not yet had a significant effect in low population density areas.
mrmoshpotato
Add that WSJ piece to the “Joe Scarborough, go fuck yourself!” mountain.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax:
So when is virus season? Has the virus declared when
Christmas Easter New Year’s ThanksgivingVirus Day is, so we can all mask up, wash our hands, and stay the fuck away from each other?sdhays
I always cringe whenever I hear a liberal say they watch Scarborough’s show. He was a shitty Republican Congressman, and while he has gotten better, he’s still shitty. I really don’t see the appeal. I don’t see what people like about Mika either.
But I don’t watch cable TV anyway, so …
mrmoshpotato
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Bags of unseasoned dicks meet Elon Musk’s mouth.
Ohio Mom
@lowtechcyclist: Joe Scarborough isn’t bothered by taking off his shoes and all the rest because he has a pre-check pass. He probably enjoys sailing past all the rest of us struggling with our shoes.
Masks though, there’s no way to pay to get out of wearing them.
YY_Sima Qian
I must say I found Li Yuan’s opinion piece in the NYT pretty risible. I am sure she has Chinese contacts in Shanghai that are decrying the CCP regime’s hard authoritarianism & “Zero COVID” specially, because of their immense & justified anger, frustration & anxiety caused by f*cked up logistics of the lock down. There is still popular support for the “Zero COVID” strategy, but if local authorities mismanage more lock downs then that support will quickly erode.
However, it is worthwhile to examine how Shanghai ended up in this situation, it has been pursuing a more targeted response throughout the pandemic & w/ Omicron BA.2 since Feb. Shanghai could not have pursued such policy w/o approval from Beijing. No one outside of Zhongnanhai really knows the leadership’s thinking, but there is suggestion that Beijing allowed Shanghai to experiment w/ less disruptive measures to explore ways to eventually “live w/ COVID”. Beijing had to shut down the experiment when the outbreak at Shanghai got out of hand, & all of the regional authorities in the rest of China vehemently protested to Beijing that cases from Shanghai are causing clusters & outbreaks all over their jurisdictions. However, letting Shanghai experiment w/ “less than Zero COVID” contradicts Li Yuan’s entire thesis.
Just like at Xi’an in Shaanxi Province in Jan., the problem at this point not the strategy, but the execution. One can certainly criticism the CCP regime for failing to vaccinate all of the vulnerable cohorts (individuals bear responsibilities, too), leaving China w/o a short term exit ramp from “Zero COVID”. One can certainly criticize Shanghai for not having a Plan B for lock down should their “less than Zero COVID” strategy failure. One can certainly condemn specific measures or Kafka-esque bureaucratic pathologies (such as killing the pets of people going to isolation/quarantine, separating children from parents, hospitals refusing patients w/ medical emergencies due to not having negative RT-PCR test report w/in 48 hrs).
To criticize the strategy in good faith, however, one needs to examine the likely alternatives. We all know Omicron BA.2 is super transmissive, & at least as virulent as the Wuhan strain for the inadequately vaccinated. We all know that 50% of the > 80 y.o. in China have not taken a single shot of COVID vaccine. What will be the result if China does not attempt to contain & suppress outbreaks? Omicron BA.2 will sweep across the population & kill millions of elders, & 10s of millions more will suffer from Long COVID. What kind of opinion pieces will Li Yuan write about the CCP regime then, that the cynical regime is culling the non-productive members of society? Even if almost all of the vulnerable cohorts are vaccinated & majority boosted, China will still see hundreds of thousands of dead elders & 10s of millions people suffering Long COVID, extrapolating from South Korea’s experience. At least right now, most people in China are not numb enough to infections & deaths to accept such an outcome (I imagine including most people in Shanghai).
FT (of course) is now complaining about the Shanghai lock down’s impact on global logistics & supply chains, but what will be the impact on the global economy if there is massive worker absenteeism from an Omicron BA.2 wave sweeping across the Chinese population? We saw that in fall of 2021 when Delta swept across SE Asia, shutting down factories everywhere. Back then companies could divert production to China, because of China’s “Zero COVID”. Are the commentators not seeing the disruption that Omicron BA.2 is causing in Europe (see the mass cancellation of flights), in populations that are both high vaccinated & highly infected?
The mathematics of the pandemic has only become much more daunting, but the basics have not changed – you either have exponential growth or exponential decay. Due to the very high transmissivity of Omicron BA.2, it is impossible to sustain a suppression only strategy for long, the momentum of spread is simply too strong. There is no middle ground of “just a little spread” that seems to be the unconscious assumption of all of these western commentators (not one of whom has healthcare background), never was w/ any variant of COVID-19 but certainly not w/ Omicron BA.2. As has always been the case, that means faster & harder response earlier lead to the better outcomes. Relative to the rest of China, Shanghai reacted slower, less interventionist & later. That is the root cause of its current troubles (plus the local authorities’ failure to plan & execute the lock down as back stop). Why are asymptomatic/mild cases sleeping on camping cots in crowded auditoriums (conditions much worse than Wuhan in spring 2020), because there are 215K such cases in Shanghai & still increasing by > 15K per day. They have long run out of even prefab isolation space, which is why 10s of thousands are being transferred to neighboring provinces.
Western MSM are also ignoring the rest of China, because Shanghai has a concentration foreign media & an even greater concentration of foreign expats they can interview. However, the large outbreaks in Jilin Province are now well suppressed, none of Changchun’s cases’ yesterday were from community screening (& residents there had issues w/ food distribution, too). Shenzhen & Dongguan only locked down for a week, despite being adjacent to the tsunami in Hong Kong. Guangzhou is locking down several sub-districts due to a community outbreak there. The local community offices immediately rolled out a WeChat mini-APP & asked all pregnant women & people needing regular medical care to register w/ the community offices & community clinics, so that if there is any medical emergency, bureaucratic red tape will not cause more tragedies. Other cities are learning from Shanghai’s failures. & food distribution is not nearly as challenging for a few sub-districts lock down, compared to a city-wide one. Wuhan has seen over a dozen positive cases per day for the past several days, including a few from the community. So now schools in a few districts have shifted online (not ours, yet), some residential compounds are under lock down, & there is city-wide mass screening every other day, but life is otherwise normal. Shanghai did not conduct citywide mass screening until after the lock down. Outbreaks in low Tier cities such as Wuhu/Huainan in Anhui Province & Dezhou/Zibo in Shandong Province are contained/suppressed & eliminated.
Unfortunately, the outbreak at Shanghai has reached a critical mass that elimination may not be possible anymore, since it constantly threaten to seed outbreaks elsewhere. China still needs to suppress COVID for a while longer to vaccinate the > 80 y.o.. W/ Omicron BA.2’s transmissivity, that basically means aiming to contain/suppress/eliminate every outbreak, & it will look no different in action from “Zero COVID”. There are tentative signs that China is preparing for eventual exit from “Zero COVID”. 8 major ports of entry (by air) into China have modified their quarantine policy from “14+14” to “3+11” (3 days of centralized quarantine + 11 days of home quarantine), probably recognizing that transmission in quarantine hotels is no longer a negligible threat.
Right now, I am seeing a lot of the same terrible takes from western MSM as during the Wuhan outbreak, & I think they will age equally poorly.
Scout211
Taking the advice of the jackals posting here, I chose to get a Pfizer second booster after getting Moderna for the original vaccinations and the first booster.
Moderna side effects wiped me out for 36 hours after the two full doses and 12 hours after the booster half dose. I was pleasantly surprised that Pfizer side effects were very, very mild—almost non-existent. I don’t know what that means other than I have a free day today since I had planned on nursing side effects today.
Arclite
I’m appreciative of these regular updates even as Americans and the West wish to move on. We’re not out of the woods yet. Ukraine is sucking up all the oxygen, but COVID isn’t gone yet.
And thanks for the comprehensive China update, Sima.
UncleEbeneezer
Count me as one vote for keeping mask mandates for airports and public transportation FOREVER! Sure it would be a real pain for extremely long flights, but really it isn’t that big of a deal.
YY_Sima Qian
@UncleEbeneezer: I do remember getting a respiratory infection just about every time I flew between China & the US.
YY_Sima Qian
@Arclite: You are very welcome!
Geo Wilcox
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): They’d be fools to accept it. All stocks are down now (even Tesla’s after Musk’s offer). Twitter stock had been as high as $70 so $54 is way too low to accept.
If I owned stock in Twitter I would bitch to high heaven not to accept based on Musk himself and his cheap assed offer.
Jeff Del Papa
Minor win: tested clear for two days in a row. I had it fairly easy, was able to cope alone, and the only remnant is an occasional cough. No idea which variant I was infected with, do wish getting sequenced was the norm.
In fact, I am surprised that I had no contact with any public health officials. Since I got paxlovid, I think it likely that I was added to the count of cases, but somehow I was one of the first cases the doctor handled, so it took a while to figure out how to get me paxlovid. (My regular internist was on vacation last week)
Barney
I don’t understand what the “promising recovery in Britain” is. The UK just rose to the highest 7 day death count since March 2021, when much of the population was unvaccinated.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-02-23..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=IND~USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~JPN
Are they just saying “hospital patients in the UK peaked about a week ago (at the highest level since Feb 2021), so the deaths are likely to go down soon”?
NorthLeft12
It just blows me away that wearing a mask for a few hours is such a freaking big deal to these people. A bunch of spoiled, greedy, and ignorant whiners.
My wife and I continue to wear our masks here in Ontario, even though it is not required except for healthcare facilities. That may change shortly, but I doubt it. We seem to be under the control of a loud and uncaring minority. I hope this bites our doofus Premier in the butt at the upcoming election.
Ruckus
@Baud:
It is something that some do regularly. I used to be one of them. I was told once by a Hertz staff member that I was in the top 5% of their renters by number of cars per year rented. I was also visually known to a couple of flight attendants because they – and I, flew on the same fights regularly. I used to travel, mostly by air, 8-9 months a year. It was fun…..
Ruckus
@lowtechcyclist:
Fuck him with rusty farm implements.
I’m thinking more of something like this 4-1930-Ronaldson-Tippett-tractor-with-steel-lugs-tyres-c-no-credit-1.jpg