(Image found here)
We now have confirmation that the Moskva has indeed sunk:
— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) April 14, 2022
According to TASS the Moskva sank as a result of a storm in the Black Sea while being towed back to home port in Sevastopol.
MOSCOW, April 14. /TASS/. The Moskva missile cruiser sank while being towed amid storm because of hull damage sustained during the detonation of ammunition, Russian Defense Ministry said Thursday.
“During the towing of the Moskva cruiser to the designation port, the ship lost stability due to hull damage, sustained during the detonation of ammunition because of a fire. Amid the heavy storm, the ship sank,” the Ministry said.
The Ministry underscored that the crew was evacuated to nearby Black Sea Fleet ships, as was announced earlier.
Earlier on Thursday, Russian Defense Ministry reported that Black Sea Fleet missile cruiser Moskva sustained serious damage after a detonation of ammunition, caused by an onboard fire. The Ministry said that the crew was evacuated to nearby Black Sea Fleet ships, adding that the cause of the incident is being determined.
The Russian warship was sunk by the combined efforts of Captain Stormachenko, Lieutenant Accidentsky and Sergeant Firechuk.
— Slava Malamud ?? (@SlavaMalamud) April 14, 2022
Back in reality, earlier today the Ukrainian government finally confirmed that they had, indeed, targeted the Moskva with Neptune anti-ship missiles.
Something important to keep in mind is that Russia will not be able to replace the Moskva with another Slava class vessel because Turkey has invoked the Montreux Convention.
ISTANBUL, Feb 27 (Reuters) – NATO member Turkey changed its rhetoric to call Russia’s assault on Ukraine a “war” on Sunday and pledged to implement parts of an international pact that would potentially limit the transit of Russian warships from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea.
Kyiv had appealed to Ankara to block any more Russian ships from entering the Black Sea, from which Moscow launched an incursion on Ukraine’s southern coast. At least six Russian warships and a submarine transited Turkey’s straits this month.
“It is not a couple of air strikes now, the situation in Ukraine is officially a war… We will implement the Montreux Convention,” Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkey’s foreign minister, said in an interview with broadcaster CNN Turk.
Balancing its Western commitments and close ties to Moscow, Ankara has in recent days called the Russian attack unacceptable but until Sunday had not described the situation in Ukraine as a war.
The rhetorical shift allows Turkey to enact the articles of the 1936 Montreux Convention that permits it to limit naval transit of its Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits during wartime, or if threatened.
Since the Moskva was the only Slava class vessel with a home port on the Black Sea, if Russia wants to try to replace it with one of the others still afloat, it can’t. The Turks have closed the straits.
Much more after the jump!
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s thoughts on day 50 of Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine:
They’ve been trying to destroy us for 50 days, but the ?? people are heroically resisting. We fear nothing, we know what we’re fighting for. We are brave enough to put an end to evil. Stop feeding the ?? military machine. Help ?? with weapons. Then peace & good will win faster. pic.twitter.com/WdDbZsvZ4e
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 14, 2022
Here’s the latest British MOD assessment:
And here’s the latest British MOD map:
You’ll notice a bit of movement in the east, where the Russians appear to have fortified themselves on the eastern side of the gap between Izium and Luhansk.
Here’s the latest operational update from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense:
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on April 14, 2022
The fiftieth day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues. A russian federation continues its full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine.
The russian enemy is trying to complete preparations for an offensive operation in the Eastern Operational Zone. The aviation group and the command and control system are being built up.
The enemy continues to launch missile and bomb attacks on infrastructure facilities and residential areas of cities and villages of our state.
In order to conduct hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, the russian occupiers are training additional units of the Northern Fleet and the 8th All Arms Military Army of the Southern Military District of the Armed Forces of the russian federation. To provide units with weapons and military equipment, measures are being taken to remove them from long-term storage at bases and warehouses.
According to the available information, the losses in the 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade (Perevalne) and the 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade (Sevastopol) amount to more than 50 percent of the personnel.
The command of the russian army fails to implement plans to mobilize human resources in the North Caucasus region to participate in the war against Ukraine. The main reason is the reluctance of the population of this region to take part in hostilities.
Due to the critical situation with the staffing of combat units, the command of the armed forces of the russian federation plans to begin a new process of mobilization at the national level. According to the plan, the mobilization, in order to hide it, will be carried out in parallel with the planned conscription.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya areas has not changed significantly. There is a movement of units of the 36th All Arms Military Army of the Eastern Military District by rail from the territory of the Gomel region of the republic of belarus. The threat of missile strikes from the territory of Belarus on the objects of our State remains.
In the northern direction, the russian enemy is regrouping units with their further concentration in the areas bordering Ukraine. From the territory of the Bryansk and Kursk regions there is a movement to the Belgorod and Voronezh regions of russia.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the occupiers are conducting reconnaissance of probable areas of attack, increasing the system of reconnaissance and medical support. Stocks are being replenished. The partial blockade and shelling of the city of Kharkiv continues.
In the city of Belgorod, the russian enemy deployed a unit of information and psychological operations of the armed forces of the russian federation in order to intensify measures of psychological influence on units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and the civilian population of Kharkiv region. The goal is to demoralize and end the resistance.
The occupiers continue to prepare for active action in the areas of Slovyansk and Barvinkove.
In the Donetsk direction, the russian enemy, with the support of aircraft and artillery, continues to attack in certain directions. The main efforts are focused on establishing control over the settlements of Popasna, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Slovyansk.
The enemy tried to break through our defenses in the areas of Rubizhne, Novotoshkivske and Marinka. It was not successful. A russian enemy continued to launch air strikes on Mariupol.
There have been no significant changes in the situation in the South Buh region.
In the Black Sea and Azov operational zones, enemy naval groups continue to carry out tasks to isolate the area of hostilities and reconnaissance.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Let’s win together!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s the DOD’s latest background briefing update on Ukraine:
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Okay, good morning, everybody. Not a whole lot to — to update you with.
Let — let me just get the — the — the cruiser question out of the way at the beginning, at the top, because I know that’s what everybody is interested in today.
We cannot confirm what caused the damage to the cruiser Moskva. We do believe that she has experienced significant damage. Our assessment is that — that she still appears to be battling a fire on board, but we do not know the extent of the damage. We don’t know anything about casualties to her crew, and we cannot definitively say at this point what caused that damage. So I — I — I know everybody’s interested in that, but that’s where we are right now. We — we hold the ship moving to the east. Our — our assumption is that she’ll be heading to Sevastopol for — for repairs. But — but that’s — that’s really all — all we can say.
The only other maritime activity worth noting is that we did note that other Black Sea ships that were operating in the vicinity of her or in the northern Black Sea have all moved further south. They — they — they — in — in the wake of the damage that — that the Moskva experienced, so they’ve all — all — all of the northern Black Sea ships have now moved out, away from that the — the northern areas where they were operating in.
But that’s about the — the — the most I can give you today. Again, I know this is a big story, but I’m not going to get ahead of — of — of what we — what we believe we know and can speak to definitively.
As for everything else going on the ground, I mean, no major changes in positions for either side over the last 24 hours. We continue to see Russia posture for offensive operations in — in the Donbas, and continue to see additional equipment arrive in western Russia and in — in that area to the north of the Donbas that we talked about, Valuyki and Rovenki, including, in fact, we’ve seen some additional helicopters make their way to be staged in — in that area for — for insertion.
We believe — and we’ve talked about this yesterday — that what the Russians are largely doing right now are what we call shaping operations. They’re setting the conditions for — for — for what the — they want to conduct in the Donbas region in — on — on the ground and in the air, but — but we don’t believe that — while fighting is going on, clearly, in the Donbas, we — we don’t believe their — their new offensive has — has begun, at least not in the — in the terms that they are trying to — to define it.
Mariupol is and remains contested. The — we — we don’t — we do not hold that — assess that Russia has taken it. The Ukrainians are still fighting.
In the air domain, the — the Russian sortie rate is about — about consistent with, you know, up-and-down movements over the last few days, I mean, a little less than 200, we — we — we assessed, and the vast majority of those as yesterday are being focused on the Joint Force operation area — no surprise there — and Mariupol — no surprise there. We’ve not really observed any airstrikes deeper into Ukraine out of those two areas.
Let’s see — in security assistance, I don’t have shipments to speak to today with respect to the $800 million that the president ordered yesterday. We are working as feverishly as we can to — to fill those shipments out, but I don’t have a shipment to speak to today. Again, in the past, our experience has been, certainly since the invasion, that after authorization, it takes us about three to four days to get the first shipment in the air. So we’re still within — well within that window, and — and — and again, the secretary’s made it clear, his expectations that the department will — will move out on this package just as quickly as we have on — on the last one.
On the last one, still believe we’ll be able to finish that out by the middle of the month, that — that — you know, from — so from — from authorization to completion of $800 million-worth of materiel, it’ll take us about four weeks total — total to close out that $800 million. But again, I — I would point you to the first shipments started to arrive within a week. So we’re — we’re still — we’re still closing that one out.
To date — well, I — I’ll just say it. To date, I mean, since the — since the — since — since the invasion, I mean, the — literally thousands of Javelins, including another shipment that — that will arrive today and — and — and well more than 1,000 Stingers. So we’re — we continue to — to — to move out.
I think that’s it. I think we’ll stop there.
Q&A at the link!
I just want to take a moment to follow up on something from last night regarding some/most of the 36th Marine Brigade being able to break out and link up with the Azov Regiment. If you recall I referenced reporting from The Globe and Mail that quoted the commander of the Georgian Legion, which is fighting for and as part of the Ukrainian Army:
Mamuka Mamulashvili, the commander of the Georgian Legion, a battalion of volunteer fighters, told The Globe and Mail that his unit had troops “near Mariupol” who were still fighting.
Mr. Mamulashvili said he also had friends among the Ukrainian forces holed up in the massive Azovstal steel factory. He said he had spoken to them in recent days and did not believe they would have surrendered.
“I would know,” he said when asked whether the battle for Mariupol had ended, though he would not discuss the number of fighters who were still holding out. “They have not surrendered. There are still Ukrainian army forces and Georgians there.”
He said the Georgian Legion – which consists of about 700 troops from Georgia, along with some other international volunteers – was, like the regular Ukrainian army, redirecting forces previously deployed around Kyiv south, toward Mariupol, now that Russia had withdrawn its army from around the capital. He said Mariupol could still be liberated from Russian control.
“It is possible – and we will do it.”
Earlier today The Kyiv Independent reported that:
⚡️Deputy Commander of Azov Regiment: Blockade of Mariupol can be broken, military and political leadership has to “take decisive action.”
Earlier, Ukraine’s leadership said they were doing everything possible for the defenders of Mariupol.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 14, 2022
If the Georgian Legion commander is, in fact, in contact with the Azov Regiment leadership while moving to take up positions outside of Mariupol, I would not be surprised to see them coordinate an attack on the Russian positions where the Georgian Legion hits them from outside of the lines and the Azov Regiment and what is left of the 36th Marine Brigade hits the Russians from inside the lines. This is just speculation, but we’re starting to get reports from tactical commanders on the ground that they intend to try to lift the Russian siege and partial occupation of Mariupol. So something to potentially watch out for.
I want to highlight the following bit of analysis from our own DougJ:
I love making fun of the "Putin knows what he's doing" stuff because it's not specifically right or left or center so much as it's just stupid.
— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) April 14, 2022
Doug is right, but I think there’s something else here we need to focus on that was most likely outside the scope of his satire. As I wrote the other night, Putin has a limited strategic toolkit, which he’s successfully used over and over for almost twenty years. The only time it has failed was fifty days ago when he decided to revinvade Ukraine this past February and it has been failing ever since. But because he only has this limited set of tools, and because they’ve never failed him until now, he keeps using them even as they and their use look more and more ridiculous. The Moskva obviously did not sink itself and it just appears absolutely ridiculous to anyone who isn’t carrying Putin’s water regardless of whether they’re paid to or not to suggest that it did.
Finland and Sweden announce they’ll join NATO in sixty to ninety days, Putin immediately sorties a Russian naval vessel to Finnish waters and starts threatening that he’ll attack Finland’s arctic borders. Why? Because he expects that if he once again creates a territorial dispute with a potential NATO member, NATO won’t let them in because of its policy not to admit states with active territorial disputes so as to not immediately trigger Article 5. My worry is less that NATO won’t see through this, though, of course it will only take one current NATO member state to object to block Finland and Sweden’s admittance. Anyone care to bet how Hungary is going to vote if it has a pretext for cover? My worry is more that Putin can cause a lot of low intensity damage attempting to make this ploy work.
NATO, as a result of Putin’s reinvasion of Ukraine, quickly gets much more coherent and unified, Putin’s preferred candidate in France announces if elected in the runoff that she’ll pull France out of NATO’s command structure, then push for NATO rapprochement with Russia, and begin the process of separating France from the EU.
What’s happening is that Putin’s limited strategic toolkit may keep him in power in Russia and may keep the majority of Russians willing to abide by a lot of hardship as a result of the sanctions and economic measures, but Ukraine’s defense is demonstrating that Putin’s toolkit may be of limited utility. And I’m going with may be because there are still too many voices already trying to help that limited toolkit provide Putin with success by constantly calling for Ukraine to negotiate a settlement to the war that provides Putin with a compromise rather than push for a decisive successful defeat of Russia on the battlefield in a way that sets the condition for Ukraine to secure the post war peace.
The Russian reinvasion of Ukraine is definitely an attempted genocide. Not that that was much in doubt.
Russian Duma member Lilia Gumerova says Ukrainian kids deported to Russia don't speak Russian well enough, and there will be summer camps to teach them the language. https://t.co/7tAMkE7dZk This all resembles the Nazi campaign of kidnapping Polish children during WWII
— Kateryna Pryshchepa (@KPryshchepa) April 13, 2022
There were five of them.
He, his son, daughter-in-law and three grandchildren. One day Mr. Valentin realized that all the food and water supplies were over and he had to save his family.
— Яна Супоровська (@YanaSuporovska) April 14, 2022
Mr. Valentine spent his childhood in the ruins of World War II.
"I played with ammunition as a child, but I don't want my grandchildren to have the same childhood," he said.
Now his family is finally safe, but they don't know if they will ever be able to return home pic.twitter.com/TNMIkxK16s
— Яна Супоровська (@YanaSuporovska) April 14, 2022
Saltivka is the largest residential district in the north-east of Kharkiv. Up to 500 thousand inhabitants lived here before the war. It is comparable in population to the size of Edinburgh. Russia has turned it into a ghost town and a new invasion might start there any moment. pic.twitter.com/9tyU5OlRND
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 14, 2022
You’re semi daily bayraktar:
Video from Ukraine’s 14th Mechanized Brigade showing artillery strikes on Russian positions captured by TB2 UCAVs. https://t.co/CiTSb9S0f7 pic.twitter.com/qv0c6aJBnX
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 14, 2022
And we’ll finish with a semi-daily Chef Jose Andres:
Hey guys! Reporting in from the Poland border with Ukraine on my way to Kyiv…numbers of refugees crossing are down from the early days but families keep arriving 24/7 so we @WCKitchen will be there for them with a hot meal! More updates soon… #ChefsForUkraine pic.twitter.com/B9iBfL6p15
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 14, 2022
Mike in NC
In 1976 the USSR sent a couple of frigates to make a port call in Boston for the 1776 Bicentennial. I went with my brother because at the time I was taking Russian 101 in college and wanted to try out my language skills. They were not partingularly impressive ships.
Yeah. I am thinking that if Le Pen wins, Finland and Sweden will be blocked from joining by France. France has been out of NATO before. My concern is that we could have 20 years of Russia and France in alliance with each other. As destabilizing as it would be, if I’m Germany I’m developing my own nukes, since the US election might mean France and the US is out of NATO, and the only nuclear umbrella is in a very feckless UK with their own PM who likes snorting coke on oligarch yachts.
Alison Rose ???
Never thought I’d be so gleeful over a ship sinking.
Thank you as always, Adam, especially for including stuff from the Good People.
Thank you, Adam. You are the best source of reliable news and insight.
There have been several mentions today of a video of Putin yesterday where he was described as twitchy. I have not found it. Does anyone have a link or can tell me which post to go through?
The Montreux Convention stops the Russians from doing whatever the fuck they want how, exactly?
<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>There is a big fire again in the Russian city of Belgorod, just across the border from Kharkiv.<br><br>Ukraine might have struck another Russian oil depot. <br><br>?? <a href=”https://t.co/dZ9nAxwqzw”>pic.twitter.com/dZ9nAxwqzw</a></p>— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) <a href=”https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1514743447541985285?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>April 14, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>
The Montreaux Convention gives Turkey the right to block the passage of most military vessels through the long and narrow Turkish Straits. Russia could try to force the issue, but it probably would not like the results.
I may have screwed up trying to embed a tweet, but there is another fire in Belgorod. The Ukrainians possibly have hit another oil depot.
Adam, if you haven’t already done so, perhaps you can explain how the Ukrainians are going to militarily evict the Russians from at least some foothold in the east and also possession of Crimea. I can see them taking back most of their captured coastline and stopping further Russian advances, but unless the Russians opt for regime change, this war could go on for years as a stalemate.
Even Zelenskyy was willing to kick the can down the road re: Crimea, that beloved part of heartland Ukraine that Stalin tacked onto the country when it was a Soviet Republic (that is snark for the literal-minded out there). I think he knows that only a negotiated settlement will work. Do you?
I think much of the world is coming around, unless they are really dependent upon Russia or have a leader who thinks of himself in the same vein as vova, someone who thinks of themselves as the top of the heap. Of course it’s a heap of shit but still it’s the top of a heap of something. But all this time of corruption and theft of his countries assets has taken it’s toll upon the country. Yes Russia will do a huge and horrible amount of damage but they are damaging their future just in a different manner. It will get worse before it gets better, and I have zero idea of a time line but they seem to be loosing what little support they might have had and are showing the world just who they are. I wonder how many of his military will recognize what they are doing and that the only person that has to suffer is vova.
@Comrade Bukharin: TASS timeline:
1 PM: There is no fire in Belgorod.
2 PM: There is a small fire in Belgorod.
3 PM: Heroic firefighters are battling a blaze at the oil refinery in Belgorod.
4 PM: The oil refinery at Belgorod was being towed when it was struck by lightning and burned to the ground.
5 PM: The head of the state oil industry has been found dead of multiple heart attacks.
5:05 PM Special Bulletin: We wish to emphasize that the oil refinery in Belgorod was destroyed by natural causes, not by Ukrainian actions.
NATO would be in a state of crisis if a country (or countries – Hungary, or France, or potentially the US – I have read that new member requires a 2/3 Senate majority but I have not tracked down confirmation) objects to Sweden and/or Finland joining. I don’t see how it would be easily resolved as there is no formal expulsion mechanism in the treaty.
Thanks Adam for another very informative post!
Seems like the UF keep showing they’re on top of strategy and tactics.
I don’t feel gleeful, but that’s no knock on @Alison Rose ???: or anyone else who does. Mostly feel the urgency.
I do keep holding out unrealistic hope that UF can retake Mariupol while some Azov defenders are still alive. And getting Kherson back out of enemy hands would probably help. Knocking out the main battleship definitely helps.
James E Powell
I’m expecting to see frequent applications of the “was being towed” phrase.
I saw one analysis that suggested that if Ukraine can retake Kherson then the Neptune missiles may be able to reach Sevastopol, which leaves Russias navy with a bit of a port challenge.
@Ken: Amazing the Russians haven’t improved their defenses since the first strike on Belgorod.
I don’t understand why Russia thinks it looks better to say that Moscka sank in an accident versus it was hit by missiles.
Medvedev seems to be the go-to guy when VVP needs to issue a scary statement. He’s the guy that said cutting off Russia from SWIFT would be an “act of war”.
It’s good to see that Lithuania understands what’s going on here. I’m sure everyone in NATO, and Finland and Sweden, has considered all these various contingencies.
I’ve been reading some bitter criticism of the Russian Navy over their handling of this incident. However, other comments note that with the fleet pulling back so far it potentially opens up the air space in Ukraine’s favor, if the Moskva was the only one that carried medium to long range SA-10 SAMs (whatever they are). It was suggested that the range of a Neptune is 186+ miles and the distance from Odesa to Sevastopol is 188 miles. Move the missiles closer to Mykolaiv and the fleet is back in range, but how realistic that is I have no idea. OK, someone else said it carried 64 s300s, the sinking removed a very large air defense umbrella.
I also saw it suggested that if the Russians have such a hard time towing things without sinking them, they should take lessons from Ukrainian farmers.
Also, if no one caught it, Beau of the fifth column describing the ship as originally named the Slava, renamed the Moskva in 2000, and renamed again in 2022 as the Snake Island Memorial Reef is worth repeating.
Alison Rose ???
@Lyrebird: To be fair, gleeful was probably the wrong word. Something like schadenfreude, perhaps.
@Comrade Bukharin: (You need to remember to be on the “Text” tab in the “Leave a Comment” edit box when pasting in a Tweet.)
@Another Scott: Ah, thanks!
As a Finn I find the prospect of Russia creating a territorial dispute to hamper our joining NATO concerning: this doesn’t happen in an instant, but the process, especially ratification by all current members would take quite a while. A security guarantee while waiting would be really good to have. In practice it seems to me that this would have to involve the US to be credible beyond doubt. I wonder how (if) this would work in practice.
Another concern is that all current member countries would need to go along with us and Sweden joining NATO and Hungary with its chummy relations with Russia might be a real problem. Otoh, Putin has his hands full at the moment so this would be a good time to join in that sense; the best time, of course, was around when NATO expanded after the collapse of the USSR, but then the public support simply wasn’t there, and, well, Vox Populi, Vox Dei.
Someone commented that Moskva has now eclipsed the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano, sunk in the Falklands conflict, as the largest warship sunk in battle since WW2.
@Comrade Bukharin: ?
@Comrade Bukharin: Maybe a missile cruiser accidentally crashed into the fuel depot.
Adam L Silverman
@planetjanet: I haven’t seen it. And you’re quite welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose ???: You are most welcome.
@PeakVT: Some of the Brexiters thought Hungary would help them in their negotiations with the EU. Some even travelled to Budapest.
“The ship sank in a stormy sea.” Yeah, of laughter, coming from the direction of Ukraine.
…caused by the impact of a missile. Or missiles.
@topclimber: I’m not Adam, and all I know about this war is what I read on these here internets, but with that very large caveat:
How are the Russians going to defend Crimea or the Donbass if their army falls apart? I read today that they are down to around 65 BTGs in Ukraine, from a starting number of 120. That’s almost down to half. They are still transporting soldiers who were fighting in the north of Ukraine down to the Donbass region, but reportedly many of them do not want to go back. How will they get their remaining tanks and other vehicles into Ukraine while the rails are blown up and the fields are mud and taking the roads leads to miles long traffic jams where they can be picked apart at ease? Russia just called up a new group of conscripts, but it will take at least two months for them to become anything approaching soldiers, and they cannot be required to go to Ukraine since Russia has not declared a war. If they are sent, would they be effective as anything other than cannon fodder? Russia has lost massive amounts of materiel already, how will they replace it? Who will they buy it from? How will they pay for it?
Ukraine has a well-motivated and well-led army. They have a steady flow of weapons from NATO. If they can continue to take apart the Russian Army, what is to stop them from taking back the Donbass and Crimea?
Adam L Silverman
@soapdish: The convention allows the Turks to close the straits that Russian naval vessels have to transit to get into the Black Sea. The Russians either respect the closure or they attack Turkey and bring on a full NATO reprisal under Article 5. Up to this point they’ve respected the convention and Turkey’s closure of the strait. It appears to be the only thing they’ve respected so far.
(still reading): Neptune missile supposed to be able to take out ships up to 5K ton; the Moskva was 15K ton. But since the Ukrainians built her, they’d have a pretty good idea where to hit to take her out–IF the accuracy is that good.
@Comrade Bukharin: If they struck another oil depot, Good. And I have absolute faith that Mariupol will be able to break out.
Adam L Silverman
@Comrade Bukharin: What have you done? To that comment, not Belgorod. Though, we are going to need you to provide an alibi for Belgorod too!
Adam L Silverman
@Comrade Bukharin: Here you go!
@Adam L Silverman: A technichal difficulty, corrected in comment 23.?
@VOR: I’m reminded of the Kursk – which was bigger (and a submarine, and sank in peacetime).
I wonder if VVP, and the Russian people, have learned any lessons in response…
His instincts haven’t changed, but it will be much harder for him to blame others this time.
Adam L Silverman
@topclimber: I think that the chance for a negotiated settlement became impossible once the images and testimony from Bucha and other towns and cities started coming out.
Adam L Silverman
@Ruckus ??: You are out of moderation and free to move around the comments.
Adam L Silverman
@Comrade Bukharin: Likely story…
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: The range for the Neptunes are 200 miles. I think that’s terrestrial, not nautical.
@VOR: Do not forget the Kuznetsov, and its valiant battle against its own dry dock.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: They’ve already got the hypersonics In Kaliningrad and the reporting indicates they’re at least nuclear capable ones if not the ones with the nuclear warheads.
Another Perun video: this time on the economic implications of a long war on Russia, the West and Ukraine.
@PJ: Assuming Russia flubs its eastern offensive, they have to revert to playing pure defense in a single theater (i.e. whatever area they can supply). If Putin wants them to stay there just for that mission, I think they could do it.
I hope I am wrong, but if Putin’s only option is to fight, he will find a way. Sure, a timely bullet would solve the problem. But given our poor record of instigating regime changes, I wouldn’t count on it. From there a stalemate seem quite likely.
@Adam L Silverman: Those cities are 150 miles apart, give or take, so yeah, that works.
Nobody in Finland is impressed by the latest trolling by the neighbor. Meh. They’re smug[*] about how the Prime Minister rocked a black leather jacket in her press conference with Sweden’s PM.
[*] Well, not everyone. Somehow a young woman PM always annoys some dopes and nogoodniks.
@Alison Rose ???: I can certainly relate!
Not sure what me ten years ago would think of me rooting for drones.
It just seems like the fastest road to peace is the road of the RF getting kicked in the tteeth militarily. And the faster this war ends, the more Ukrainians actually get to live to see it happen.
I could be completely off-base here but I am taking the opinion that if Russia ginns up a border dispute on the fly just to try and give itself some diplomatic cover for not admitting new NATO members that we’ve reached the point where we can see that for what it is… namely attempting to use the rules and logic of the NATO charter against those member nations that wish to join it as a pretext.
I can easily see that with Joe Biden in charge that this would be a ‘fuck that” moment where the spirit of the arrangement is in full force and not allowing a nation state that has established itself as hostile to dictate diplomatic terms to those against it is aggressing.
I get very much the vibe that while Biden is all for going thru the norms and the forms, that there are certain moments and situations where he refuses to let the letter of the law override the spirit of the law.
Maybe I am completely full of crap, but I fully expect that Joe Biden has simply had enough of this shit, because its been both in the national interest and that these fuckers continue to try and leverage the issues of his family into being some rallying cry of personal corruption. We’re still going thru the forms here but I just have the feeling that Joe knows the Ukrainians are winning and he will continue to use whatever tools he has at hand to support them while still allowing other events at home to unspool to address his political opponents.
According to Wikipedia:
General Belgrano 608 feet, 12,420 tons
Moskva 611 feet, 12,940 tons
It’s Moskva as the largest warship lost to combat since WWII!
Now here is a thoroughly blowed up bridge:
Basically, what I was suggesting last night. Adam still felt it would give Putin a victory by making NATO look hypocritical.
@topclimber: my question is, if things keep going the way they’ve been going, a month or two from now, how can the Russians fight without an army and without weapons? What will they do when, say, Belarus is in the midst of a revolution, Georgia decides to take back the pieces that Russia took, and some of the Stans in the Russian Republic decide that now would be a good time to declare independence?
Hitler supposedly quipped that, with dictatorships, nothing succeeds like success. The flip side of that is that when dictatorships fail – and this one is failing big time – everything is up for grabs.
@Ruckus ??: I wish I had political cartooning skills. Last week my mental image was of a cavernous hall, with Putin as a nasty troll perched atop heaps, bags of money; in front of him is a thin, chained, muzzled bear, with half starved cubs behind her. Behind him are ranks of laughing oligarchs. They all toss table scraps and tell the bear how well she is treated but her ribs are showing and her cubs are weak. the muzzle and chains show the same level of trust as that 30-foot table between Putin and his advisors.
I don’t know what will be enough for that bear to break her chains and attack her oppressors. Anyway–Ukraine certainly has decided to stop dancing for them.
@Adam L Silverman: Just to be clear: your answer is to push the Russians out of any significant entrenched positions anywhere in Ukraine. How is anything less than that decisive, assuming Putin is still in power?
Certainly Russian atrocities dim the chance of negotiations. Yet we found a way to make peace with North Vietnam despite its horrible treatment of POWs, as did they despite all our “precision bombing” that racked up many thousands of collateral casualties.
I don’t know Zelenskyy’s thinking; perhaps your sources have more of an idea. If he has ruled out negotiations as long as Putin is in power, then so be it. If not, negotiations are just another tool to get the Russians out of Ukraine.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
You all need to take a look at a picture of the Moskva see how it sunk itself. That thing was covered with cruise missiles the size of small jet fighters. It was floating death trap. The real surprise was the Moskva didn’t pull a battle cruiser HMS Invincible and instantly vanish in a mushroom cloud upon impact from that Neptune missile.
It’s also interesting that the sinking of the Moskva came right on the heels of the Putin sending Russian warships to threaten Sweden and Finland. It’s almost like someone was showing Putin what would happen if he keeps on playing that way. I will just point out Slava class cruisers were built in the 70s to attack US carriers, that’s why all the huge cruise missiles and all kinds of anti aircraft missiles, the USN has spent the last 40 years figuring out how sink these things and wow, the Ukrainians knew exactly how to make the Moskva’s defensive systems fail and open it a successful attack to the Soviet equivalent of a Harpoon.
Wonder if any of the intelligence units have thought of starting to broadcast The Battleship Potemkin to all Russian units, I’m sure a version with a Putin lookalike as the bad guy could be created without much trouble
@Kelly: What was impressive about that is the hodge-podge of Russian anti-tank mines and other bits that the Ukrainians used to blow up that bridge, and that they got 5 of 6 vehicles along with the bridge. Resourcefulness is always admirable.
@PJ: You need to allow for the possibility that Russia is doing a lot of catch-up maintenance work on the many weapons it has in storage. So we might not get a repeat of their initial fiasco.
If the war devolves into a holding action on a limited front, they could still have enough troops. And is Ukraine really going to take back Crimea, short of a peace treaty or a dead Putin?
Never underestimate the Russian tendency to throw bodies into the breach.
Malcolm Nance now showing Russian national TV openly talking about nuking Kyiv, via @JuliaDavisNews. “Bomb them once and that’s it”. JHC. So much for my sympathy for the poor starving bear.
4.8 earthquake in Baja, 40-50m miles south of Tijuana.
Northwest of Ensenada.
@topclimber: This is not a Great Patriotic War. I think it’s going to become increasingly more difficult for the Russians to find bodies to throw at their problem.
@PJ: You get the last word. Lucky American that I am, I am off to sleep in my bed with little fear of an artillery attack.
@piratedan: Russia can try to gin up a border dispute with Finland, but:
1) They don’t have an army to do it with, because they’re stuck in Ukraine.
2) Finland has been preparing for that since 1945, and have the biggest artillery in Europe.
@PJ: They’re already facing that problem. It won’t get better.
I agree with Adam that there will be no settlement. I think both sides will fight until either Ukraine is taken by Russia, or Russia is completely evicted from the country. This is Ukraines great patriotic war, and not Russia’s as you note.
@PJ: I read a story today about a 30-year old Russian who got a call from the army recently, 10 years after he was discharged. He feared that they would force him to go back, so he managed to get a flight to Istanbul, and from there to Poland and the Netherlands, where he applied for asylum.
And he’s far from the only one.
Alison Rose ???
This this this.
What amazes me about the sinking of the Moskva: the Russians thought that claiming that reckless incompetence by the crew of a flagship vessel, resulting in the sinking of the flagship, would somehow look less bad than admitting that the flagship was sunk by enemy action.
@Calouste: No, but his point is a well taken one. NATO requires no border disputes for 10 years to be admitted. Putin just needs to drive a bunch of tanks across the border to their slaughter, and a border dispute has been made. Do that every 10 years and they can never join. Russia doesn’t need to win a battle to win. They just need to contest the border.
I think Adam believes NATO will more strictly hold to that rule than I do.
@Alison Rose ???: Over at the GOS, they describe the latest arms shipments this way: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/4/14/2092029/-Ukraine-update-Russian-flagship-sinks-U-S-escalates-weapon-deliveries
I don’t know how much we’re giving of these various systems like artillery, counter-artillery radar, (too few) choppers, etc. But that we’re doing it, is a good sign, and I hope we do more.
Like you, I am still …. troubled (is a mild word) that it took so many Ukrainians being sacrificed, for us to finally start getting “offensive weapons” into their hands, so they can take the fight to the RU orcs and defeat them. But at least it seems we’ve started, finally, to properly support UA.
Alison Rose ???
@Amir Khalid: “How dare you say they’re stronger than we are! That is a lie! They’re just much smarter and more competent and organized! We are not weak, we are just really really dumb!”
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I read one analysis that suggested that one way to address the problem is to launch missiles in pairs and have the missiles return the radar signature as a superimposed signal such that the target appears as a larger target between the two missiles. So they think there’s one incoming, when there’s two, and if they use a missile to target it, it may take out one but not both, allowing the 2nd missile to get through. They may be unaware it’s two targets unless they have radar on it from multiple angles and can coordinate that information, or until they get visual on it, and then it’s probably too late to do anything (unless they have an R2D2 go brrrrrt machine).
That makes a lot of sense to me. There’s been huge progress made in that area in the last 15 years which permits all modern wifi and cell phones to function by being able to do the math extremely quickly on (comparably) fast onboard computers to produce that kind of signal. There are ways to counter it, but it requires even faster computers to solve even more complex equations.
Given that Ukraines missile is quite new, it stands to reason they could have incorporated these concepts. Given that Russia is struggling to keep up in these technical areas, it stands to reason they don’t have the countermeasures.
I concur. I just can’t see NATO being stupid enough to allow a hostile power to game its admission rules so blatantly.
I was surprised to learn today that Alex Navalny is able to tweet anti-war, anti-Putin comments from his Russian jail cell. It suggests to me that Russians aren’t nearly as cut off from the outside world as they’re described to be.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I still have that concern.
@Calouste: who says it has to be ground forces? he can do it with violation of Finnish territorial waters or airspace… or Sweden’s for that matter
still, it remains, he can start crap and expects to win a propaganda war by stating NATO is violating its own principals, and I don’t believe its a winning argument to violate national borders in the pursuit of affecting foreign policy…
Granted we have a compliant media, to a degree, but they’re also highly attuned to the prospect of war/conflict generates clicks, no matter the cause or the instigators (cripes, this reads like Putin is depending upon that old James Bond movie plot point as justification doesn’t it?).
I also wonder if the Jan 6th commission and the DOJ actually start pinning the threads of the coup links to sitting legislators that this kind of scandal will stop being about Hunter Biden’s laptop and actually trying sitting members of the Senate and House for sedition.
The Slava class cruisers were designed for Cold War battle of the North Atlantic, charging toward USN CVBGs at flank speed & let loose their huge P-500 Granite supersonic AShMs from 500 kms away. 1 hit would be enough to mission kill a USN supercarrier. They were not expected to survive the charge. The Moskva in particular did not benefit from the upgrade/modernization of weapons, radars & electronics that her sister ships received.
Using them for shore bombardment is a clear misuse of assets, but speaks to the dearth of Russia’s resources.
@Martin: I read that Ukraine used mermaids and sirens to distract the Russian crew. Or a drone. Whatever works. RAH mentioned radar spoofing in Moon is a Harsh Mistress.
Adam L Silverman
@topclimber: Yes. And the Ukrainians have made it clear they don’t expect any progress from talks given that Russia is committing genocide.
@Another Scott: Al Jazeera writes:
But given how decrepit so much of Russia’s war machine now appears, is this really true? Yes of course Russia has enough functional nukes to make Scandinavia glow (or other targets), but I’m dubious that half that shit works on any given day. And the “global leader in hypersonic tech”, like, really? I picture Han Solo jumping into the Millenium Falcon, turning the key, and hearing the “ruh ruh ruh” sound of not starting.
My uneducated guess is that since NATO’s deterrence ability comes from an “all for one, one for all” ethos, any country with disputed territory creates a problem of invoking mutual defense provisions over the disputed territory.
I think it makes sense to me that there are situations, where current borders are reasonably settled, and the country wanting to join NATO has no desire to expand its territory, therefore the no border dispute precedent can be waived.
Russia may claim part of Finland as Russian territory, but if the Fins don’t want to expand and Russia hasn’t annexed any part of Finland’s current territory this shouldn’t stop Finland’s membership.
@Adam L Silverman:
Thank you. Been away for a while today after that comment.
@Amir Khalid: It gives NATO discretion on how to act. If they see that Russia responded to the intent to join and NATO is willing to provide the security guarantees knowing full well what’s going on, then they can make the exception. If they don’t want to, then they won’t make the exception.
I don’t think the rule matters so much as it allows NATO to make the decision they want to make. It’s not so much a rule to allow a member to join as it is a rule to allow NATO to say no to a situation they don’t want to get involved in.
Which I suppose begs the question that Adam would be better able to answer which is: “Does Article 5 exist solely as a deterrent?” That is, was Article 5 even intended to be invoked, or did NATO feel that the mere existence of Article 5 would keep NATO out of a direct conflict with the USSR/Russia. And I say that because that is exactly the job of the various nuclear arsenals. Your expression you are willing to use it ensures that you never need to use it. At the same time, those things are positioned as purely responsive measures. You are willing to use it only if the other party starts it. Your doctrine is that you will *never* initiate that exchange, but you will finish and win it. Both parties maintain the same doctrine, always assuming the other party will be the aggressor.
So if NATO never intends to invoke Article 5, then they’ll never make the exception, because the exception forces the situation. If NATO does intend to invoke it, then the rule allows them to decide case by case whether to make the exception and force the situation when it suits them.
Now, there reason why NATO may not want to run fast and loose on this is that the rule serves as a kind of red line, which you don’t want to be ambiguous. It signals to the other party what ‘too far’ is. But there are other ways to handle that.
the issue is that non-urban Russians are as cut off from the outside world as Faux viewers are from reality.
it’s a matter of choice, not access to alternates.
The primary difference from what I understand of the current Russia-Ukraine war versus U.S. involvement in Vietnam is that Russia wants to annex Ukraine. Despite all the bombings, the U.S. was never going to annex Vietnam. We did sort of take over South Vietnam, as their governments wound up floundering, but even then we’d have been fine with a Korean War style ceasefire, where North and South Vietnam coexist.
The chances of the U.S. trying to fight another war in Vietnam, after we pulled out, was/is exceedingly small.
Ukraine declared independence after the collapse of Czarist Russia. The USSR reconquered it by 1922. There was an independence push after WW2 that was suppressed. Ukraine’s been independent of Russia for the past 30 years, but here they are again fighting Moscow for their independence.
I think that’s the biggest difference.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Martin: The account I read said the UA sacrificed a drone to distract the Moskva during the Neptune attack was made and apparently there was no attempt to engage the missiles.
While the Moskva was refitted in 2000, the Russians have a reputation for not upgrading their electronics like Western Navy’s do.
The Slava class does have point defense gun
This bit from Reuters is truly theatre of the absurd….
I imagine all these world leaders standing around a great fireplace sipping cognac while wearing powdered wigs — Louis XIV style…
@Ishiyama: Yeah, I know that we’ve been experimenting with using drones to use this technique to generate a specific radar signature, making it look like a larger craft like a ship was approaching when really it’s just a handful of drones. A carrier group could use this to generate a bunch of false radar signatures, either making it look like there were more ships in the fleet or confusing the enemy as to where the actual ships are.
Works fine against adversaries that rely on radar for targeting, rather than having high altitude visual, satellites, etc.
A lot of this kind of stuff is about exploiting small weaknesses in systems.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Cool. Didn’t realize Russia had those systems. They’re fucking terrifying.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
If this isn’t weird enough so far, the Russians had a piece of the True Cross on the Moskva
@Martin: @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Reading this made me curious, so I went searching:
the RU gun: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/AK-130#:~:text=Slava%2Dclass%20cruisers%20are%20equipped,%22aimless%22%20aiming%20at%20targets.
The US Phalanx system: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS
I don’t know squat about these things, but one thing jumped out: Phalanx spits out 3000 rounds/minute; the AK-130 is 90 rounds/minute. No, that’s not a typo — *minute*. My understanding was that the high rate of fire was part of what made Phalanx effective against inbound missiles.
Remember it is still an entire world. Russia’s army may not be all that and and a PB&J but still they are a major nuclear weapon presence. A war is not something you jump into unless you have to. But at some time it becomes obvious that you should. We are playing a dangerous game, one we’ve played in a reckless fashion far too often. And yes, I do think that Ukraine deserves everything we can give. It’s just that vova is sort of getting his ass kicked and given that he doesn’t seem to have his head screwed on too tight these days, it is obvious that it could get worse before it gets better. Lots worse. Who knows what he’s thinking or if he actually is at all. He may be just reacting more and more insane as the seconds tick off. Will this end well and if not how bad will it get?
My point is that none of this is simple. It’s not simple to game out. It’s not simple to decide which way the wind will blow tomorrow. It’s not simple to make any sort of reasonable take of what he’ll do in the next week, or hell, in the next ten minutes. And if vova doesn’t trust anyone then it gets a lot worse because he’s going to make decisions that may have no relationship to any kind of reality. A mad man, in the psychological realm of mad, only makes good decisions by accident.
@Ruckus ??: Ruckus, to be sure, I do agree that we *still* shouldn’t get involved militarily. Too much danger of killing half of humanity and making theother half wish they’d died first.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Chetan Murthy: Two barrels on the RU weapon. so more like 180 rounds.
The real thing to note is “One turret that can only cover the bow” a Slava is screwed in stern attack. American ships have one Phalanx to cover each side of the ship, and two per side on a CVN. Most other Soviet Cruisers would have four of these turrets so it would be 360 rounds per side.
See @YY_Sima Qian: post about how Slava’s are just fast giant missile boats. I strongly suspect the Russian kept them because “big scary, scary missiles” and not because they were particularly good cruisers.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Heh, and “well, we have these, and we can’t bloody well build replacements, so ….”
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: @Chetan Murthy:
According to wiki, Moskova had 6 AK-360 CIWS systems, not the RU,
It still puts a ridiculous amount of rounds out, less than some other systems, but compensates by firing 30mm rounds, not 20mm rounds, and HE Frag.
I would guess that like the USS Stark, they either never saw it coming, or had it on manual not automatic, not expecting any Anti Ship Missiles, either air launched, or land based.
@Martin: Does anybody use torpedoes anymore? Can they be dropped from drones, or launched as missiles?
@Jay: ah, nice! I should have kept digging! Thank you for this.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@Amir Khalid: I think the reason why that particular insane line of propaganda is going on is that it would admit that the Ukranians are doing a good job of defending their country.
The fundamental point of Authoritarian/Fascist thinking is that publically the Authoritarians are alway right. ALWAYS. When Authoritarians attack, publically the talk is that their enemies are weak and they are “helping” them (de-nazification in the case of Ukraine, though the Russians have FAR more Nazi-curious people in their mercenary ranks and general file).
It is (in their minds) less embarrassing to plead internal incompetence than external competence, since that admit that their potential victims have power that the Authoritarians cannot override. It would make them public admit that they are wrong, and from an Authoritarian mindset, that is just not done.
Turkey as of Feb 27th has invoked the FU Russian Warship clause, which is a “big F’n deal”, as it also shuts down Russia’s “Tartus Express” to arm and supply Syria and RU Forces/Wagner Merc’s there, plus their other “Adventures” in Africa.
everybody still uses torpedos. Yes they can be air dropped from specialized aircraft, but generally so far, their weight precludes drone use so far.
Russian state television: “the sinking of the Moskva is a casus belli that justifies a full-on war against Ukraine!”
Also Russian state television: “the Moskva sank due to an accidental fire.”
Would be comical, if we had not spent four years being ruled by shameless liars who don’t care about consistency. And if they were not trying, day and night, to take over our country again.
From one perspective, torpedoes were the first drones themselves.
In earlier times, a crewed ship with an explosive charge on a long pole (a spar torpedo) would attempt to get close enough to another ship to stick the charge to the hull. So, that was a “manned torpedo”, so to speak.
The modern torpedo arise when you change the crewed ship to an autonomous underwater vehicle ie a drone submarine.
modern torpedo’s other than the Shkval, trace their roots back to homing torpedo’s during WWII. Get within range and the torpedo finds it’s own target on it’s own.
By the 50’s, the speed differential between the launch platforms, ( other than subs), required either specialized launch platforms, (helo’s), or new deployment techniques, ( parachutes and drop ramps).
The days of flying low and slow, and in a straight line were over.
Autonomous subs carrying torpedo’s aren’t quite being there yet.
“Autonomous subs carrying torpedo’s aren’t quite being there yet.”
No, but Russia now has an unmanned sub carrying a fearsome arsenal of ship-killing missiles. Unfortunately, it seems to be fixed in one spot on the floor of the Black Sea.
Jokes aside, we still do not know the fate of the crew of the Moskva. Russia suggests that the crew was successfully evacuated before the sinking; Russia lies about everything. If the ship rolled and sank soon after the strike, then several hundred souls were lost. Will the families all keep silence?
Adam L Silverman
Adam L Silverman
I would guess, based on either version, a big chunk of the crew got off. Turkey claims to have pulled 54 out of the water. Lifeboat systems and other systems, ( immersion suits) have come a long way since WWII.
Back when I owned my own sailboat back in the 80’s/90’s, I had an auto deploy life-raft, in a 3’ x2’ canister, mounted to the deck, that on immersion, inflated itself, with a break away tether, 5 days of food and water, GPS and auto ERPB, SSB radio, canopy shelter and room for 5.
@Adam L Silverman: It’s nice to see that the old ways are preserved. Were the Assyrians equipped with anything that good? (But I get the idea; torpedoes are not so useful compared to contemporary munitions.)
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
The main limitation of the AK-630 CIWS on the Moskva is the low muzzle velocity (900 m/s), which its mediocre rate (4 – 5K rounds/min) of fire cannot make up for. In the age of supersonic (Mach 3+) AShMs, the Phalanx is hard pressed to meet the challenge, too (1,100 m/s muzzle velocity, 4.5K rounds/min). That is why the USN & other western navies are going w/ RIM-116 point defense missiles. The Chinese Navy has deployed a point defense system very similar to the RIM-116 for its major surface combatants, combined w/ an 11-barrel gatling cannon (1,150 m/s, 11K rounds/min, supposed to be effective against Mach 4 targets).
The Moskva‘s suit of air defense missiles, the S-300F long range SAM & the OSA-MA short range SAM, have minimum engagement altitudes of 25 m, which is a problem when the Neptune can sea skim at altitude of 5 m. Nevertheless, the Moskva‘s 3 AK630Ms (per side) should have been able to shoot down the sub-sonic & non-stealthy Neptune missiles, even a salvo of 4 missiles, but apparently its air defense officers were distracted by a Bayraktar drone overhead? (Which cannot carry enough ordinance to threaten the Moskva, & should have been shot down by the Moskva‘s SAMs many kms out, or by its escorts). I guess the Russian Navy did not expect a shore based AShM threat. Yet another example of Russian’s massive underestimation of Ukrainian prowess, & paying dearly for it.
most CIWS systems have auto features, and manual features.
in a “high threat” environment, you set it on auto, so that any incoming target is engaged by the computer, sucks if crew are standing near,…….
In a “low threat” environment, control is manual,
”umm, Chief, sorry, I drifted off for a minute playing Galaxia, but is that thing on the screen an ASW?”
“nope, “peers at screen”, nope, just a flock of pelicans high on tourist french fries and sugar treats!”,
”umm, Chief, pretty sure it’s an ASW”
”Well then, turn the dammed thing on!!!!!!!”
”umm Chief”, the computer is booting up and warming up, what’s this blue screen? Never seen it before,………….”
most modern torpedos are significantly faster, more “fire and forget”, capable of greater depths, than WWII versions. They can even be emplaced in land controlled underwater bastions, controlled from land, as a high speed, relative compared to an ASM, “smart mine”, able to chase and overtake a ship over several nm.
Their key roles these days is sub vs. ship, ( Ukraine doesn’t have subs), or air launched from ASW’s ( helo’s and patrol aircraft against subs). Ukraine right now, doesn’t have a “problem” with Russian subs.
@Jay: If Moskva’s crew had CIWS on manual in a war zone…
USS Stark did,……
it would be “normal” to have the CIWS systems manually controlled if:
A) there was no “deemed” Naval Threat, ie, no Ukrainian Navy of matter,
B) no UA Airforce threat, ( few aircraft, no ASW weapons) the S-300’s can deal with it, we have an “air control” bubble,
C) no shore based ASM threat, as the “Harpoons” hadn’t arrived yet and will take weeks to train up,
Beats blowing crew off the deck and into the water everytime a false positive, A Flock of Seagulls, https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BJ7NVjZ-Eyg
From Pravda on the Potomac:
On a lighter note it occurs to me that Elon Musk could save a lot of money buying Truth, since it has zero users now and it will save time for everyone quitting Twitter if he buys that.
“Beats blowing crew off the deck and into the water everytime a false positive….”
I’m reminded of one of the Russian attempts to equip tanks with an active response to ATGMs, like the Israeli Trophy system. The Drozd was basically a radar detector hooked up to Claymore mines mounted on the outside of the tank — it has some chance of knocking out the incoming missile, and a certainty of killing your own infantry, whether mounted or dismounted.
@Adam L Silverman:
NATO aside, isn’t Turkey in an incredibly strong defensive position re: the Bosporus? I get that the Russians could kill a lot of citizens in Istanbul but wouldn’t their navy just get their asses kicked?
the process for getting a warship or a military cargo through is to pre-file an itinerary and a manifest,
Turkey say says “yes” or “no”,
try to “run” the Straights, you are taking on the full Turkish Military in a very small space.
Nobody has been willing to try it since WWI, and that did not go well.
Turkey has recently taken a stance of “no”, or nyet, or Fuck you Russian Warship.
Listened to an interview with Lord Dannett, former Chief of the UK Defence Staff yesterday. He said that the appointment of a single Commander with overall responsibility for the invasion will lead to better command and control of Russian forces, improving their ability to act in co-ordination. He also said that the terrain in south-eastern Ukraine doesn’t favour the sort of tactics that the Ukrainian army successfully used in the North. This, plus the advantage in manpower Russia potentially has, leads him to think that Ukraine should set up lines if defence and wait for the Russians to throw themselves against them until their losses are great enough for the Ukrainians to force a break through. Then repeat as necessary. If Adam reads this, I wonder what he thinks of this as a strategy and how he rates Dannett as a General.
On a related note, Lord Dannett was complaining about how slowly the granting of visas is going. Apparently he’s sponsored a Ukrainian family to come and live with him and the process is going at a snail’s pace. He said if it’s that bad for him, with all his advantages, he couldn’t imagine what it was like for people who couldn’t ambush junior ministers in the HoP tea rooms
and given the predominance of “tank riders”,…..
another “tell me how you know nothing about our systems and policies as quickly as possible”,…..
Most of us just have to deal with software, not a Droze going off under our ass at random,…..
@Adam L Silverman: Agreed. But what is a “border dispute” in this case? I assume it is granularly defined in the NATO paperwork. Setting this aside, what’s to prevent NATO from simply stating that not every action taken by a bad actor is a border dispute, regardless of what the bad actor wants NATO to call it. Thus, even if Russia roles tanks into Finland, NATO can simply say that that is not a border dispute. Everyone knows where that border is. That’s not in dispute. I’m only half-joking here, the point being, why allow a bad actor to drive your decisions you make based on your instruction set? Surely somewhere in the instruction set there is a clause about “things change, so we reserve the right to change, too.”
@Jay: Agree. You have to see it to understand how narrow the Dardanelles are at their narrist point, but some people here have speculated that Putin would rather lose to NATO than Ukraine. If it looked like losing to Ukraine might actually be a thing, it occurs to me that trying to force Russian warships through the Straits and the inevitable exchange of fire that would involve would be the obvious way to force NATO involvement.
the RU forces being deployed/redeployed, are either pretty “chewed up” or “virgins”.
General Mud holds sway into June, or if weather holds, July. So roads and railines.
While Eastern Ukraine is more open, and less settled, there is still still the “verge”, ( fallow treed areas between fields), and Javelin’s can reach out and touch somebody at 6km.
IMHO, if Russian troops were worth shit, they had better conditions in Western Ukraine, where numbers in urban settings matter.
Turkey has a bunch of ways to block the Russians in a non- military way.
”oh, Comrade, you are going to ram your 11 ton destroyer from the weak RU Navy Mediterranean Fleet through a a 490 ton commercial ROLO”
”good luck with that, have some more vodka!”
ps. The UA has kicked ass by devolved command. Each local command takes action and responds to conditions on the ground, in their area. Get’s way out side of a Top Down OADA loop, as it takes time and comms to relay info up the food chain.
A UA “squaddie” can decide to take a position, with out Command from the top.
More flexible, more reactive, in less time.
The “new” RU “unified” Command suggests that they will be slower, less reactive, ponderous.
but with Russia, regrouping, building up, and focusing on Donetsk and Luhansk,
Yeah, digging in to break the coming assaults, makes sense, where conditions are favoured. Right now, the RU can deal out more “punishment” or “attrition” than the UA on fixed positions, so there are places where digging in and holding, ( where it has not been done), work for the UA, and there are places where staying mobile also work.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@YY_Sima Qian: The Moskva had the finest of 70s Soviet electronics.
The Mach 4 stuff is ballistic, so the other problem is try to shoot down a falling rock.
That unable to attack low flying missiles was problem with the Russian stuff, back in the 80s….
@Jay: Yes, the Turks can stop a ship from transiting those narrow straits if they want to. And the Turkish President is a very stubborn man who takes massive human rights violations like those in Ukraine very seriously since it’s not Turkish forces perpetrating them.
Turkish President Erdogan has lately been patching things up with the many regional allies he’s pissed off. He had been on the outs with most Gulf Arab countries over their blockade of Qatar. In fact, removal of Turkish troops from that country was one of a number of demands that Qatar succesfully blew off. The blockade flopped and was formally resolved last year. Now the Turkish Foreign Minister, a much smoother man than the prickly Erdogan, is visiting the Gulf states and making frenemies of them. A settlement of the Libyan civil war war might come of this.
Erdogan has even made up with Israel. The two countries used to be strategic partners. Then Israel’s violent handling of the Haza relief flotilla in 2008(?) left 8 Turkish citizens dead and Turkish/Israeli relations in the icebox. Last month, though, President Erdogan hosted President Herzog and hailed “a new era” in relations between Turkey and Israel.
Turkey’s relations with the U.S. are still frayed, but Turkey’s improved relations with U.S. allies in the region can’t help but improve the Turkish/American relationship. Erdogan is in a stronger diplomatic position regarding enforcement of its rights under the Montreaux treaty.
Domestically, a crashing Lira has eroded Erdogan’s standing among Turks. A confrontation with an historic adverary like Russia would tend to rally Turks around their government. So if Putin were to give Erdogan a heads up that a Russian warship will transit the Bosporus, Erdogan might well say, “Go ahead, make my day,” or have his Foreign Minister say this in a smoother way.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Both China & Russia (also sold to India & Vietnam) are fielding AShMs w/ Mach 3+ speed in its flight profile. Ballistic missiles will have terminal speeds of nearly Mach 10, or more. Hypersonic glide vehicles will have speeds of Mach 5+.
I’ve got a different line of thinking about Sweden/Finland joining NATO.
Instead of waving the ‘no territorial disputes for 10 years’ NATO waves the waiting period (or whatever it’s called).
They apply and are accepted in the same day or very shortly thereafter. Yes this would take an extraordinary amount of diplomacy for this to happen (looking at you Hungry). I think this solves the problem while providing security for everyone involved.
Putin seems to think (or at least use as an excuse) that NATO wants to invade Russia. Someone needs to point out to Putin that the only countries that might even remotely want to invade Russia are on his eastern border (China & Japan). There is not a single country on his western border that gives 1 shit about taking Russian land (as I wrote this I realized Georgia might be the exception).
I’m a very early morning person so I’m always very late to these posts.
@lee: I wonder what kind of pressure NATO and the EU can bring to bear on Hungary regarding admission of Finland and Sweden. In any event, nothing in the NATO alliance prohibits its individual nations from fighting in or over Finland and Sweden.
@YY_Sima Qian: This is why nations are pushing hard to develop and deploy laser weapons. I think the U.S. Navy is incorporating capacity for prospective energy weapons in it’s ships. A new class of destroyers have a striking electrical generation capacity. Some of it’s used for a rail gun that fires 5 inch projectiles great distances, but that gun is just a placeholder for powerful laser weapons, I think.
The new aircraft carrier class has 40% more electrical generation capacity than the class before it. Some is used for an electromagnetic catapult system, but that capacity will easily be diverted to the anti-aircraft energy weapons to be added in a few years.
1) Why does our press literally transcribe every stutter and word repetition of the Senior Defense Official, while rewriting everything TFG says to make it coherent?
2) I’m not sure the ‘gin up a territorial dispute’ trick works with Sweden and Finland. Their existing defense cooperation with NATO should make bringing them without any of the prep work previous accessions required easy. More importantly, they’re already covered by the EU mutual defense clause. If Russia does something like trying to take Gotland, Sweden invokes that, and Poland gets their wish to start shooting. Is the US going to sit out when bases they share with the Poles start getting hit with missiles?
@Geminid: $$$$. Lots and lots of money. Hungry’s economy has been tanking since it has embraced its right wing.
@Ken: dead thread, but lol, OMG, you’ve nailed it!
Anonymous At Work
In honor of a Russian flagship being sunk since the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05, courtesy of Google translate:
Roshia no gunkan wa jibun de seikō suru
@topclimber: I imagine there is a complicated historical consciousness of some groups in Ukraine towards Crimea. Ukrainian history is an incredible pageantry of nomadic tribes and agrarian civilizations crossing each other at the intersection of the steppes of inner Asia with Europe and the Middle East. It’s an unbelievable history. For hundreds and hundreds of years from Mongol invasion up until modernity the land of Southern Ukraine north of Crimea was the Wild Fields and Crimea was the home of the Nogol Horde. The land of doom. Where an escaped serf from Kyiv would find only cossack pirates and Turkish slave auctions.
Moskva Sank With Neptune Attack, Not Of Neptune Attack– FoxNews/RT/Glenn Greenwald etc.
randal m sexton
@Geminid: Is there a provision in NATO for booting a member? If Hungary vetoed Finland and Sweden, may that come into play ? Seems like either Finland or Sweden would be more valuable members of NATO than Hungary. Google suggests that there is not a mechanism for expelling a member ( it was discussed wrt TURKEY’s actions in Syria) but it seems there might be diplo-wiggle room.
randal m sexton
@randal m sexton: On expulsion : https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/
@Sloane Ranger: People like him are trained to be pessimistic/worst case scenario.
The counter argument is that:
@Geminid: That hypersonic strike on the mall a few weeks ago was horrifying. It came in like a bolt of lightning in the video I saw. I can’t even begin to imagine how you could instercept that. It seems like a very difficult challenge for the Navy to have a reliable method of defending capital ships against that type of missile, but I can see why lasers would be necessary because there isn’t any time to fire any kind of projectile after identification of the threat, at least from within human temporality. Maybe computerized fire control systems can operate in that time frame.
@randal m sexton: I really don’t think Hungary is going to veto Sweden or Finland joining NATO. Yes, Hungary is very compromised (so compromised that nearly no NATO planning goes through them anymore as there is a direct line from here to Russian foreign intelligence), however Hungary does that stuff because there is plausible deniability. When things go to an open vote, Hungary has basically sat out or sided with the EU/NATO, they’ve only blocked collective action against Russia because their official policy is what is happening is wrong. There’s just no window they have to publicly flaunt it.
That’s why the assumption is that Russia needs to gin up a real border conflict in order to give Hungary cover to veto. The reality is Russia doesn’t have the capability in this case, not because the war in Ukraine, but because of the long history of co-operation between NATO and Scandinavia means that they already have a response for anything done.
That’s why you see Russia threatening doing stuff that they already have done (e.g. nukes in the Baltic). Because that’s all they seem to have. They’re spent in this regard.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@UncleEbeneezer: yes, “ha! our ship was always a death trap since the day it was launched, checkmate libertards” is a weird way to go about it.
The Pale Scot
Finland can lease units from Nato countries, full armor divisions, Awac support, anti SAM units. The Wagner unit has men from different countries. Sign a contract and get a new paint job. All legal and above board. It was quite the thing in the 1700’s. That’s where Vlad wants to get back to, so………
The Pale Scot
@Adam L Silverman:
If I won the lottery I’d always thought I’d start trebuchet manufacturing business. I’t be like lawn gnomes for the wealthy
@Peale: So Le Pen will be the Yoko Ono of NATO?
So, was there a storm on the Black Sea on or about the time the Moskva sank?