And yet…
The U.S. is trudging into what could be another COVID-19 surge, with cases rising nationally and in most states after a two-month decline.
Experts warn that the coming wave will push up hospitalizations in a growing number of states. https://t.co/QapB4qyKPS
— The Associated Press (@AP) April 15, 2022
The federal "test-to-treat program" is being held back by technical problems & poor services. The aim is to reduce Covid hospitalizations/deaths by quickly giving antiviral pills to people who test positive. But as cases rise, people just don't have access https://t.co/nel0hqzEcG
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) April 15, 2022
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FOMITES:
China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) has suspended imports from three Brazilian beef exporters – JBS SA (JBSS3.SA), Marfrig (MRFG3.SA) and Naturafrig – for one week, the newspaper Valor Economico reported, citing a statement sent to Brazil’s embassy in Beijing.
The decision affects four plants located in Mato Grosso and São Paulo and will take effect on Saturday.
According to the statement, technicians identified the presence of nucleic acid from the new coronavirus on the external packaging of four batches of frozen products from these companies sent to China…
Last week, the GACC suspended imports from two Brazilian beef plants and one poultry producer, also for one week effective from April 8. That ban involved a JBS beef plant in Goias, a Marfrig beef unit in Mato Grosso, and a chicken plant in Sao Paulo owned by Zanchetta, which is not listed.
“Covid Zero no longer means zero local cases. If that were the case, Shanghai residents could be looking at being locked down for years. Instead, authorities are focusing on a new metric called ‘zero infection in the society’.” @markets https://t.co/Sk2Z0nBCgH
— Shehzad Qazi (@shehzadhqazi) April 15, 2022
China's Xian imposes temporary, partial lockdown to fight Omicron flare-up https://t.co/rsS6Bmv4DP pic.twitter.com/8GBwPiEXJn
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 15, 2022
Shanghai reports more symptomatic COVID cases as more lockdowns imposed https://t.co/1cS2oTjtNb pic.twitter.com/Sq0nUPsZkG
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 16, 2022
While most of the world is opening up, Shanghai is under siege as authorities lock down the city to contain an outbreak. We spoke to residents about the mass food shortages, chaos and heartbreak of losing loved ones not to covid but the zero covid policy. https://t.co/24dLoC1RQ3
— Lily Kuo (@lilkuo) April 15, 2022
Former expat in China:
This is a great piece. Trucking is at the heart of the food crisis in Shanghai: it simply isn't worth the risk of lockdown – and weeks of lost income – for truckers to enter, and the premiums demanded keep rising. But at the heart of this is long-running industry problems. https://t.co/hXTJHsnTTX
— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) April 15, 2022
Thread:
Chinese trucking is tens of thousands of mom-and-pop businesses. The average company size is *1.5.* people – they’re basically all independent operators, often couples taking turns at the wheel.
(Note that it’s been years since I looked closely at this, so not all my numbers may be up to date.) They also have extremely thin margins. There’s a ton of tolls, from the legal to ‘three villagers with baseball bats and a closed gate.’ That’s one reason trucks are overloaded.
If you’ve spent time on the Chinese roads, the sight of a truck carrying what’s clearly a dangerous weight is a familiar one. That in turn renders them even more vulnerable to police shakedowns, who usually extort bribes rather than taking them off the road.
All this also means that most drivers can’t invest in updating their trucks – which is why the cold storage chain in China is very bad. A ton of food, sometimes even medicine, travels across the country in unrefrigerated trucks.
Drivers used to rely on middlemen to find shipping, which further cut into their costs and took them off the road. Now they use Uber-type apps. But they’re still running on very thin margins and often in debt for the cost of the truck. (Like Uber!)
All this means that if a truck driver gets stuck in lockdown, *he loses two-to-four weeks of income* when he’s already struggling to pay his bills. And that means they can’t bear the risk of going into Shanghai.
A very clear and obvious move to improve the Shanghai food situation would be the government, local or central, to offer truckers significant compensation for any time spent in lockdown – and for the days that even in a best case scenario they spend navigating healthcodes.
#Taiwan’s local #COVID19 case count might reach 10,000 per day & a cumulative total of >1 million by the end of the month.
But people should continue living life as usual, as only 2 from this year's 6,543 local cases had severe symptoms, say officials.https://t.co/UeSAAg83gY
— Biomedical Journal (@BiomedJ) April 16, 2022
South Korea plans to phase out virtually all of its #coronavirus restrictions, except for a mask mandate, starting next week.
This ends curbs on business & social life that it has maintained in some form for 2 yearshttps://t.co/wRbTlcEbnE #COVID19
— MicrobesInfect (@MicrobesInfect) April 15, 2022
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New, highly transmissible forms of omicron may pose latest covid threathttps://t.co/DYlx8RLU80
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 15, 2022
COVID-19 vaccine candidates developed by a Sinopharm subsidiary and Sinovac Biotech (SVA.O) to target the Omicron variant were approved for clinical trials in Hong Kong, the companies said on Saturday.
Scientists worldwide are racing to study upgraded injections against Omicron, as data indicated that antibodies elicited by vaccines based on older strains show weaker activity to neutralise the highly transmissible variant.
The two candidates from units of Sinopharm subsidiary China National Biotec Group (CNBG) and one from Sinovac contain inactivated or “killed” coronavirus and are similar to vaccines that the companies are supplying in China and overseas, the companies said in statements.
The Sinopharm candidates will be tested as boosters in adults who have already received two or three vaccine doses, CNBG said. It did not specify which vaccine products the trial participants would have received before taking the experimental booster, or how many subjects would be recruited…
======
Those who have extended-family celebrations scheduled this weekend, watch out for that Trumpist uncle…
(Christopher Key)
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
706 new cases yesterday. No sign of a drop off yet.
VOR
Hmm, so listing your vaccine status in your dating profile may help weed out the hardcore anti-vaxers. Good to know.
New Deal democrat
Nationwide cases rose to 37,000 yesterday. Deaths rose to 522 from the 9 month low of 497 the day before.
Eric Topol is incorrect about hospitalizations. They bottomed on April 10 at 9,854, and have risen to 10,106 since.
Since the Omicron peak in late January, cases fell 96% and hospitalizations by 94%. So it is a little mystifying that deaths have declined by only a little over 80%. I wonder if we will find out that there were thousands of misclassified excess deaths in January.
On Tuesday the CDC will almost certainly report that in the week ending today BA.2 constituted over 90% of all US cases, and about 95% in the Northeast. Even in the lowest region it will probably be 80%. Yet in the South and West there has been almost no uptick in cases. Even in CA cases have only risen from about 7 to 10 cases per 100,000 from their bottom 2 weeks ago, with BA.2 close to 90% of cases. TX is still declining.
The continuing increase in cases is focused on the dense population centers in the Northeastern megalopolis and those of the the Upper Midwest. I cannot see any evidence of deceleration there, despite BA.2 being over 90% of cases. It may have to do with weather not being warm enough yet in those regions to drive people outdoors, and/or areas formerly very mask compliant abandoning those measures.
Baud
@VOR:
Must love dogs.
Must be vaccinated.
Ken
Now Eric Topol has to worry about the Grammar Police. On the other hand, the Vaccine Police problem should solve itself soon, if they all start injecting urine.
Guac
Beaufort County SC:
We’ve had a big golf tournament here all week, huge crowds, parties, packed restaurants. Every local news segment I’ve seen has started with some version of “Now that the pandemic is over/winding down/behind us… the crowds are thrilled to be back!”
Cases here have been in a fairly low plateau for several weeks, but the number of reported tests is 25% of what it was a month ago. Glad to have my 2nd booster.
New Deal democrat
Ok, this could have something to do with the continued increase of cases in the Northeast:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ClaireJen79/status/1515066909879934976
“L452R was a bad mutation in Delta. It is antibody evasive. Omicron didn’t have it. Until now. In the past few weeks we have seen THREE separate sublineages of BA.2 emerge each with a different AA mutation at site 452. Independantly.”
One of those is BA.2.12, which has emerged in the Northeast, and the NYS Health Department says is 23%-27% even more transmissible than BA.2.
“Based on sequencing data, state health officials said they’ve determined that ‘these highly contagious new variants are likely contributing to the rising cases.’”
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/ba2-subvariants-likely-contributing-to-rising-cases-in-new-york-officials-say.html
Raven
2002 FEWER goddamit!
Raven
@Guac: G-Day today, I went to the National Championship Celebration but I’ll catch the game on the tube. It’s raining like hell here.
O. Felix Culpa
@Raven:
Thank you. :)
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 9,673 new Covid-19 cases yesterday in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 4,372,697 cases. It also reported 16 deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 35,397 deaths – 0.81% of the cumulative reported total, 0.83% of resolved cases.
Malaysia’s nationwide Rt stands at 0.82.
69 confirmed cases and 83 suspected cases are in ICU; of these patients, 40 confirmed cases and 47 suspected cases are on ventilators. Meanwhile, 14,267 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,224,125 patients recovered – 96.6% of the cumulative reported total.
Eight new clusters were reported yesterday, for a cumulative total of 6,974 clusters. 116 clusters are currently active; 6,858 clusters are now inactive.
9,648 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. 25 new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 55,755 doses of vaccine on 15th April: 11,521 first doses, 38,467 second doses, and 5,767 booster doses. The cumulative total is 69,489,172 doses administered: 27,598,726 first doses, 26,137,579 second doses, and 15,965,602 booster doses. 84.5% of the population have received their first dose, 80.0% their second dose, and 48.9% their booster dose.
bjacques
“Vaccine Police”. Thanks for the earworm. In many radio markets like Houston in the late ‘70s, Cheap Trick in heavy rotation was mandatory.
NotMax
Wow, sexist much?
Peale
Ugh. My dad tested positive Monday and it’s spreading through his nursing home. Talk to my mom twice a week on Friday and Sunday. So I just found out yesterday, as my mom was relying on my sister to tell me. And of course, my sister forgot. I’m going to have to believe my mother that it isn’t severe or getting worse. Since she didn’t even bother to mention it in her weekly news roundup until 20 minutes into the call, it must be no big deal? Righto…
YY_Sima Qian
On 4/15 Mainland China reported 3,867 new domestic confirmed (985 previously asymptomatic), 20,813 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 domestic suspect cases.
Guangdong Province reported 24 new domestic confirmed & 13 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 6 domestic confirmed & 7 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 204 active domestic confirmed & 208 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 55 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Fangchenggang) cases, 32 persons in “closed loops”, 21 traced close contact under centralized quarantine, & 2 via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure. The border township of Dongxing in Fangchenggang has been under lock down for the past 50+ days. Not sure what is the cause of the sudden recent surge, or what do they mean by in “closed loop”. The border w/ Vietnam has been closed since late Feb. Dongxing’s predicament recalls what happened w/ Ruili in Yunnan last year. 10 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed (4 at Baise, 2 at Qinzhou, & 1 each at Guilin & Yulin) & 546 active domestic asymptomatic cases (450 at Fangchenggang, 42 at Baise, 16 at Chongzuo, 36 at Qinzhou, & 2 at Guilin) in the province. 3 sites at Qinzhou are currently at Medium Risk.
Hunan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (at Shaoyang), a traced close contact under centralized quarantine. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 13 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both at Hinggan League. 3 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed (2 each at Hinggan League, Bayan Nur & Chifeng, & 1 at Tongliao) & 9 active domestic asymptomatic (7 at Hinggan League & 1 each at Tongliao & Wuhai) cases in the province. 1 residential compound at Chifeng is currently at Medium Risk.
Tianjin Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. 6 domestic confirmed & 9 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. All areas of the city are now at Low Risk.
Shandong Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 5 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 19 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 46 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 146 active domestic confirmed cases & 914 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As not all of the administrative divisions in the province provide data on recoveries, I cannot track the count of active cases in all of the administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Shanxi Province reported 5 new domestic confirmed (3 at Shuozhou & 1 each at Xinzhou & Taiyuan) & 19 new domestic asymptomatic (15 at Taiyuan, 2 at Shuozhou, & 1 each at Yangquan & Jinzhong) cases, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. All cases are connected to the logistics center outbreak. 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 49 active domestic confirmed (39 at Taiyuan, 5 at ShuozhouI, 2 each at Jinzhong & Yuncheng, & 1 at Xinzhou) & 86 active domestic asymptomatic (80 at Taiyuan, 2 each at Shuozhou & Yangquan, 1 each at Changzhi & Jinzhong) cases remaining. 1 site at Taiyuan is currently at Medium Risk.
Hebei Province reported 17 domestic asymptomatic cases. 6 domestic confirmed & 47 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 31 active domestic confirmed & 893 active asymptomatic case in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Liaoning Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 27 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 10 domestic confirmed & 46 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 21 active domestic confirmed & 422 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Heilongjiang Province reported 25 new domestic confirmed & 9 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 22 domestic confirmed & 28 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 82 active domestic confirmed & 84 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jilin Province reported 195 new domestic confirmed (57 previously asymptomatic, 192 mild & 3 moderate & 2 serious) & 437 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1,697 domestic confirmed & 1,557 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. As the province does not consistently break down recoveries by confirmed & asymptomatic cases or by jurisdictions, I can no longer track the count of active case counts in the different jurisdictions.
Beijing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. As the city does not break down recoveries by imported versus domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there. 1 site is currently at High Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 3,590 new domestic confirmed (922 previously asymptomatic) & 19,923 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 21,739 of the new domestic positive cases were already under quarantine, & 852 screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (effectively meaning from the community). 969 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 19,800 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 15,305 active domestic confirmed (13 serious, 12 > 70 y.o., none vaccinated) & 225,939 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 13 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shaanxi Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (mild) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both at Xi’an, both traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. There currently are 37 active domestic confirmed & 10 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 3 sites at Xi’an are currently at Medium Risk.
Hubei Province reported 41 new domestic asymptomatic (28 at Wuhan, 9 at Ezhou, 4 at Huanggang) cases. 10 of the cases at Wuhan are traced close contact under centralized quarantine, 13 constructions workers returning from building temporary hospitals in Shanghai & under centralized quarantine upon arrival, & 5 via community screening (all workers at a construction site, having frequented a eatery w/ a positive case). The cases at Ezhou are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 3 of the case at Huanggang are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine, & a recent arrive from elsewhere. 8 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed (3 mild & 1 moderate, 1 each at Enshi Prefecture, Huanggang, Wuhan, & Yichang) & 299 active domestic asymptomatic (36 at Suizhou, 116 at Wuhan, 74 at Ezhou, 8 at Huangshi, 5 at Enshi Prefecture, 50 at Huanggang, 3 at Shiyan, 2 each at Xiaogan, Jinzhou & Jingmen, & 1 at Yichang) cases in the province.
Jiangsu Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed & 52 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 2 domestic confirmed & 54 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The currently are 88 active domestic confirmed & 730 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in each administrative division, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Anhui Province reported 44 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 38 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 14 active confirmed & 597 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Zhejiang Province reported 9 new domestic confirmed (3 previously asymptomatic) & 6 new domestic asymptomatic case. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported versus domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
Gansu Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, at Lanzhou, a recent arrival from elsewhere. 10 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 23 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province no longer breaks down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in the administrative divisions.
Fujian Province reported 6 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 64 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 21 domestic confirmed case recovered & 73 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 153 active domestic confirmed & 406 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region reported 6 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 21 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
Hainan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Sanya, the new positive cases are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks
Guizhou Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed (all at Xingyi in Qianxinan Prefecture) & 3 active domestic asymptomatic (2 at Xingyi in Qianxinan Prefecture & 1 at Tongren) cases.
Jiangxi Province reported 8 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 2 domestic confirmed & 27 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed & 111 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Henan Province reported 24 new domestic asymptomatic (2 at Luohe, 13 at Zhengzhou, 8 at Anyang, & 1 at Shangqiu) cases. 6 of the cases at Zhengzhou are workers at the airport & had crossed paths w/ domestic positive cases reported on 4/14 (truck drivers w/ travel history to Shanghai), & 7 are construction workers returning from building temporary hospitals in Shanghai & under centralized quarantine since arrival. The cases at Anyang are construction workers returning from building temporary hospitals in Shanghai & under centralized quarantine since arrival. The case at Shangqiu returned from Suzhou in Jiangsu on 4/12 & was placed under centralized quarantine on 4/14. The cases at Luohe are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 2 domestic confirmed & 17 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 20 active domestic confirmed & 240 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 2 sites at Zhoukou, as well as 1 at Luohe & 2 at Shangqiu, are currently at Medium Risk.
Chongqing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
Sichuan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. As the province does not break down recovered cases between domestic & imported, I cannot keep track of the count of active domestic positive cases there. All areas in the province are now at Low Risk.
Qinghai Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Xining, 3 via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure & 1 traced close contact under centralized quarantine. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 18 active domestic confirmed & 38 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Yunnan Province reported 56 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 10 new domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 20 active domestic confirmed & 155 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 4/15, Mainland China reported 29 new imported confirmed cases (3 previously asymptomatic, 0 in Guangdong), 82 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 2,818 confirmed cases recovered (53 imported), 21,766 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (140 imported) & 998 were reclassified as confirmed cases (3 imported), & 34,002 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 25,956 active confirmed cases in the country (259 imported), 74 in serious condition (all domestic), 274,676 active asymptomatic cases (771 imported), 12 suspect cases (all imported). 438,427 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 4/15, 3,311.245M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 2.629M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 4/16, Hong Kong reported 794 new positive cases, 12 imported & 782 domestic (437 via RT-PCR & 345 from rapid antigen tests), 34 deaths (12 fully vaccinated, including 1 boosted) + 7 backlogged deaths.
On 4/16, Taiwan reported 1,351 new positive cases, 152 imported & 1,199 domestic (672 asymptomatic).
YY_Sima Qian
@New Deal democrat: 23 – 27% more transmissible than BA.2?! What’s the R0 now at? 10?
China better get going vaccinating its remaining elders before the variant arrives.
YY_Sima Qian
@Peale: Sorry to hear about your dad. May it remain a no big deal.
Cameron
Regarding the anti-COVID subcutaneous urine protocol: any CDC guidelines on when you should get a booster?
Betsy
Thank goodness, for every crazy Trumper uncle out there, there’s also a cool liberal aunt.
Kristine
This past Thursday I had my first clinical trial visit since last fall. Second booster was advised, so I got one that afternoon. I went with Moderna—spent yesterday feeling tired and achy but functional.
I was shocked at the booster availability, especially at local Walgreens. Open slots abounded.
New Deal democrat
@YY_Sima Qian: I have refrained from making any kind of comment on China’s COVID policies, but I will say that if the “zero-COVID” dam ever breaks, it will probably be absolutely horrific.
Cameron
“After a trans-Atlantic Zoom conference with noted American medical authority Christopher Key, Boris Johnson reveals the new UK anti-COVID policy, ‘Take The Piss.'”
Barbara
@YY_Sima Qian: Right, I have been scratching my head about this for a couple of weeks — lockdowns are coercive, especially if you make people leave their homes to quarantine and separate children from parents. It seems unjust to force some people — many people really — to turn their lives upside down to protect others who are under no compulsion at all to take even the simplest precaution to protect themselves by getting vaccinated. When there was no vaccine this was obviously a much easier call — there was nothing anyone could do to protect themselves except isolate. But now? Balance seems to be missing.
YY_Sima Qian
@Barbara: Aside from the failure to vaccinate the most vulnerable, there is still the inevitable costs of Omicron BA.2 washing over a highly vaccinated population. Take South Korea as an example, by all accounts one of the best performers through the pandemic, & reached very high vaccination rate & good boosting rate before starting to loosen restrictions (I think > 95% of elders are vaccinated), far better outcome than Hong Kong. The country has suffered ~ 20K recorded COVID deaths from the pandemic to date, 75% of whom w/in 2022 due to Omicron after the successful vaccination campaign. In 3 mos. Omicron has infected ~ 1/3rd of the population (recorded cases, real numbers likely higher). How many will be suffering from Long COVID?
Extrapolating to China’s 1.416B population, the same ratio would result in > 400K deaths (~ 10K deaths in Shanghai alone), assuming China can attain South Korea’s vaccination levels for the most vulnerable. But China will see significantly higher deaths because of the much lower vaccination rate in the most vulnerable cohorts, as well as the much lower health care resources per capita. Referencing Hong Kong, that would be ~ 4M deaths in China (or ~ 70K deaths in Shanghai) at current vaccination levels. Uncontrolled spread would also cause tremendous worker absenteeism wreaking havoc w/ manufacturing, services, health care, & logistics.
Finally, Chinese doctors (from national level medical authorities to front line doctors & nurses) firmly believe that their experience suggests if spread is minimized & each COVID case can receive significant medical attention w/ early identification & early intervention, they can achieve much lower CFRs than the rest of the world has managed, regardless of vaccination status. That will not be possible if the spread is out of control & the health care system is overwhelmed, & therapeutics like Paxlovid is in dire short supply.
As of right now no one in China, from the authorities to the populations, are prepared to accept even an outcome comparable to SK. Perhaps their hopes are unrealistic (see Hong Kong). Certainly Omicron BA.2 is greatly straining China’s ability to contain & suppress (would have been much easier if Shanghai’s outbreak had not been allowed to develop to such an advanced degree), another strain w/ 25% greater transmissivity may well prove impossible to contain. Even the successes to date against Omicron BA.2 come at a significant cost economically & socially. Nevertheless, I do not believe China has a choice right now, until much higher percentage of the most vulnerable are vaccinated, by whatever means necessary. Even after that goal is achieved, I think China will still try to mitigate spread to the greatest extent possible, until the countermeasures are proven to be untenable, and/or costs unbearable.
Makeitso
I have to say I admire the doggedness on display here even though polls show 80-85 precent of Americans have simply stopped caring. Your work is appreciated.
The focus on China is head-scratching though….
Major Major Major Major
@Makeitso:
Yeah what gives, it’s only the world’s most populous country and producing footage that would make a sci-fi editor balk.
El-Man
COVID is going, but is not gone. We have just come down to alert level orange, but we have 95%+ of the country double-vaccinated.