I’m going to start tonight by marking a belief to market above the fold so it’s not being hidden.
Several times over the past fifty-three days I’ve written some variation of the US and our EU and NATO allies are going to fight Putin to the last Ukrainian while patting ourselves on the back for our restraint in not doing anything that would escalate the conflict into a Russia versus NATO fight. I’ve done this not because I think Ukraine should concede anything to Russia. Nor because I think Ukraine should be pressured into negotiating a settlement with Russia that gives Putin a diplomatic off ramp where he saves face. I have written this out of frustration that there was more that we could and should be doing and that we’ve let the ambiguity in Russian military doctrine scare us into inaction.
What I didn’t know was that both the pro-Putin America First right and the anti-American hard left were also using the phrase “fight Russia to the last Ukrainian” or variants thereof in their polemics arguing that the US and NATO are the aggressors that have caused Putin to reinvade Russia, that the best resolution for Ukraine and the Ukrainians is to give Putin what he wants, which will lead to an immediate end to the war. Here’s the prominent example in the house organ of Trumpism and America First written by a former Reagan administration official. Here’s Chomsky making a similar argument as the preeminent example for the anti-American hard left. I didn’t know this because I avoid the places where this type of disinformation and agitprop would be posted. I only caught these two examples because I saw them retweeted at the end of the week.
While I’m still frustrated that we’re not doing more, even with the current policy restraints of only providing military and humanitarian and financial aid, I just want to make it very clear that I am in no way suggesting that Ukraine do anything but what it has stated it is and will do: seek a successful termination of the war on the battlefield so as to set the conditions to win the post war peace. We’ve just sent Ukraine a shipment of new weaponry. Which is good. Unfortunately, it’s somewhere between three days and a weeks worth of equipment.
For perspective: 500 Javelins will cover three to five days of fighting. 18 howitzers will account for maybe 3% of deployed field artillery. That many or more get lost in a week. The rate of assistance is a fraction of the rate of depletion. https://t.co/R0HW0yGOmS
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) April 17, 2022
This is why I’m frustrated, not because the Ukrainians are willing to do what is necessary to repel the Russian reinvasion and free Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia. As a result, I’m going to change the way I express this frustration because I DO NOT WANT TO BE CONFUSED with either the pro-Putin/anti-American Trumpist America First crowd or with Chomsky and his fellow travelers who believe that the US and/or Ukraine brought this on themselves and that the only ones with agency in this war are the US, NATO, and maybe Ukraine, but certainly not Putin.
After the jump, we’ll start with the transcript of President Zelenksyy’s nightly address. Here’s the video with English subtitles:
Ukrainians!
Our defenders!
Today, Christians of the Western rite celebrate Easter. The happiest Christian holiday. A holiday of the victory of life over death.
The Ukrainian Catholic community unites millions of people. And I sincerely wish everyone peace. I wish you to keep the light of soul even in this dark time of war against our state. To keep it to see how good will soon surely defeat evil for the sake of our country, and how the truth will overcome any lies of the occupiers.
A wonderful gift for the holiday was made by our team at the “Invictus Games”, in which veterans and servicemen take part. On the first day of the competition, which started in the Netherlands, the Ukrainians won “gold”, “silver” and “bronze”.
Rodion Sitdikov won the “gold” in the shot put. Artem Lukashuk and Ivan Heretsun brought Ukraine “silver” and “bronze” in long jump. Thank you guys from all of us, from all Ukrainians!
This is always important, and now it is extremely important. To glorify our flag, to perform the Ukrainian national anthem and to honor our heroes.
But whatever the day and whatever the holiday, the task remains the same for everyone in power. Work not even one hundred, but two hundred percent to ensure our defense. Provide Ukraine with weapons, financial support and all other supplies.
I began this day with a meeting with the military and government officials on the situation in combat zones. Russian troops are preparing for an offensive operation in the east of our country. It will begin in the near future. They want to literally finish off and destroy Donbas. Destroy everything that once gave glory to this industrial region. Just as the Russian troops are destroying Mariupol, they want to wipe out other cities and communities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
We are doing everything to ensure defense. We are in constant contact with partners. We are grateful to those who really help with everything they can. But those who have the weapons and ammunition we need and delay their provision must know that the fate of this battle also depends on them. The fate of people who can be saved.
The 53rd day of the war is over, and we have been waiting for answers to some points in our weapons inquiries for 53 days. And some answers are formulated so that delivery can begin only in May. I speak directly in such cases: every delay in weapons, every political delay is a permission for Russia to take the lives of Ukrainians. This is how Russia interprets it. That should not be the case in reality.
Constant shelling of our city of Kharkiv continues. Today, Russian troops hit, in particular, the streets of Culture, Shevchenko and Darwin. Apparently, these are especially dangerous words for Russia – “culture”, “Shevchenko”, “Darwin”. This is something that threatens its existence. As of this moment, the list of dead from this strike includes five Kharkiv residents and at least 15 wounded.
In the last four days alone, 18 people have been killed and 106 have been wounded by the Russian shelling of Kharkiv. This is nothing but deliberate terror. Mortars, artillery against ordinary residential neighborhoods, against ordinary civilians.
The democratic world must also react to what the occupiers are doing in the south of Ukraine – in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Torture chambers are built there. They abduct representatives of local authorities and anyone deemed visible to local communities. They blackmail teachers. They steal money provided for paying pensions. Humanitarian aid is blocked and stolen. They create starvation.
The occupiers are also trying to tear off the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, following the example of the so-called DPR and LPR. This territory is being transferred to the ruble zone and subordinated to the administrative machine of Russia.
All this requires greater speed from Western countries in preparing a new powerful package of sanctions. The answer to the attempted “ruble occupation” of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions must be full coverage of the Russian banking and financial systems by sanctions. Because they are part of the occupation machine.
Of course, the need for an embargo on oil supplies from Russia is growing every day. Everyone in Europe and America already sees Russia openly using energy to destabilize Western societies. Russia’s bet on chaos in fuel markets should not succeed.
And today I really want to support once again all those who are fighting for Ukraine in the cities and communities of the south of our state. Who protect our national symbols. Who protect our freedom. Every manifestation of such a struggle makes it difficult for the occupiers to carry out their task.
Sabotage the orders of the occupiers. Do not cooperate with them. Protest. It is necessary to hold on so that Russia does not manage to distort life in other cities of Ukraine, like it did in Donetsk and Luhansk.
I spoke today with Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva. On ensuring the financial stability of Ukraine and on preparations for the reconstruction of our state after the war. We touched upon specific areas of possible cooperation with the IMF both in the near future and in the next few years. I am confident that progress in our relations with the fund will be tangible. And I want to thank Mrs. Kristalina for her personal and significant support.
Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal reported today on the implementation of the order on additional social assistance due to the war.
First. Every displaced person can receive financial assistance for living. Every month it is 2 thousand hryvnias for an adult and 3 thousand hryvnias for a child. It is possible to apply for this in the nearest administrative services center, bodies of social protection, and starting from Wednesday – in “Diia”.
Second. People are being evacuated from the war-torn areas. The government is deploying special locations to ensure temporary accommodation for people and provide financial assistance immediately at railway and bus stations.
Third. Applications for destroyed or damaged housing are being collected through “Diia”. Be sure to apply if you have lost an apartment, house or if they have been damaged by shelling.
Fourth. I urge employers, no matter how difficult it may be, to try to employ displaced persons. Now every job saved and every extra job is helping protect the state in war.
For each displaced person whom the business hires, the company will receive co-financing of labor costs from the state. This is 6,500 hryvnias. The application can also be submitted on the “Diia” portal.
Traditionally in the evening I signed decrees on awarding our heroes. 188 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were awarded state awards. 553 warriors of the National Guard. 64 border guards. 5 police officers, 26 employees of the State Emergency Service.
6 defenders of Ukraine were awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine.
And finally. Another congratulation – also for our heroes, for Ukrainian firefighters.
Today is the Day of Firefighters. And I sincerely congratulate everyone who protects the security of our people, our land from fire. Who is at war almost every day even in peacetime.
Thank you for your service!
Thank you for saving us!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s operational update for today:
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on April 17, 2022
The fifty-third day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues. A russian federation continues its full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine. The russian occupiers continue to launch missile and bomb strikes on Ukraine’s industrial and civil infrastructure.
The enemy did not take active action in the Volyn and Polissya areas.
In the Siversky direction, there is a possibility that the russian enemy will use sabotage and reconnaissance groups and launch missile strikes from the territory of the russian federation on elements of the military and civilian infrastructure of our state.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the russian enemy continues to partially block Kharkiv, trying to fire on the positions of units of Ukrainian troops and critical infrastructure.
In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, the russian enemy intensified hostilities. It continues to launch missile and bomb strikes on the city of Mariupol, including with the use of Tu-22M3 strategic bombers. The russian occupiers tried to carry out assault operations near the seaport and the Azovstal plant.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy continued to focus its efforts on maintaining its positions. In the area of the settlement of Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia oblast, it was noted that the enemy, probably to carry out provocations, draws off the letters Z on the equipment and sets Ukrainian flags.
Information about the destruction of the moscow missile cruiser by Ukraine has gained considerable public response in Crimea. There is growing distrust among the population about the information disseminated by the official russian media.
Due to lack of human resources, the russian invaders are trying to involve locals in the temporarily occupied territories. Thus, in the city of Izyum, the forced mobilization of men has begun.
Preparations for an illegal referendum on the proclamation of the so-called “Kherson People’s Republic” continue in some territories temporarily occupied by the russian occupiers. To falsify its results, it is planned to use personal data of residents of the region, which are collected by the russian occupiers during the issuance of so-called “humanitarian aid”. Residents are also spreading information that after the announcement of the results of the pseudo-referendum, their “mobilization” into the armed forces of the russian federation will begin.
During the training activities before the deployment of units to participate in the war with Ukraine on the training grounds in the russian federation, more than 50 cases of unauthorized leaving of field camps by personnel were noted.
Ukrainian defenders are defending themselves and are gradually pushing back enemy troops in certain areas.
Let’s win together! Glory to Ukraine!
Mariupol:
Mariupol had lived in peace before Russia invaded, ruined 95% of the city by heavy bombardment, and killed thousands of people. Ukrainian forces still hold on. Wounded and dead need evacuation. So are thousands of civilians, including kids and elderly. People lack food and water.
— Ukraine / Україна (@Ukraine) April 17, 2022
This night Russians are planning to bomb AzovStal factory in Mariupol, where Ukrainian defenders are holding the line. Ukrainian journalists report about 1000 civilians are also hiding in underground shelters of AzovStal.
— Nika Melkozerova (@NikaMelkozerova) April 17, 2022
⚡️Ukraine's Prime Minister Shmyhal: Mariupol besieged but not fallen.
Shmyhal said on April 17 in an interview with ABC News the besieged city of Mariupol has not yet fallen despite Russian demands Ukrainians surrender.
He said Ukrainian forces will “fight till the end."
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 17, 2022
From iNews:
Survivors from the Mariupol bomb shelters have been taken to a former Russian military base 600 miles from Ukraine which was used for decades as a dump for Soviet chemical weapons, it can be revealed.
Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman Lyudmyla Denisova has warned that more than 400 people, including 147 children, are in a fenced camp near the city of Penza, according to information she has received from concerned Russian citizens.
i has used open-source intelligence techniques to locate the camp in Leonidovka, which after the Second World War was used as a munitions dump for Soviet chemical bombs.
The discovery of the camp comes after i revealed this week how Kremlin documents show that Vladimir Putin is sending thousands of Ukrainians to remote corners of Russia and as the country is gripped by a historic population decline.
Ms Denisova said she had spoken about the camp to Russians “who support Ukraine”, adding: “This is a closed-type institution with a few hulls, fenced and under guard at the entrance checkpoint. The freedom of movement of our citizens is limited – leaving the camp is forbidden.”
She said the Mariupol survivors “don’t have the necessary clothes, shoes, even underwear” and lack basic supplies such as children’s food or toiletries.
“Our citizens are in an extremely difficult and oppressed state,” she said. “They don’t know their fate, to which region of the Russian Federation they will be taken.”
The camp, which was used as a barracks for the base and has been described by Russian media as a “military town”, is around a mile to the nearest village and is 16 miles from the city of Penza.
It is surrounded by a fence with a gate and guardhouse and by a forest on four sides. The chemical plant and the walled munitions depot with 18 bunkers which were previously used for storing chemical weapons stand just over a mile to the south.
Ms Denisova said: “According to the information from activists, Ukrainians are being forcibly relocated to different regions of the Russian Federation.”
She said 90,000 people have been taken out of eastern Ukraine and across the border “under coercion”.
i reported eyewitness testimony this week from Mariupol survivors who were interrogated in filtration camps before they were taken over the Russian border on buses. “None of our acquaintances wanted or planned to go to Russia,” the witness said.
Much, much more at the link.
This isn’t a filtration camp, this is a concentration camp!
Chernihiv:
Until just recently, there was a library, one of Chernihiv's landmarks buildings. Now there is a 5-meter crater from the russian 500-kilogram bomb. Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol—each city bears the same signature: “The russian world paid a visit there.”
Photo by Marko Melnyk. pic.twitter.com/FIlwmbMdUB— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 17, 2022
Kharkiv:
A missile hits #Kharkiv residential area again. This is how the life of Ukrainians looks under russian bombs and rockets. For how long will it continue? #ArmUkraineNow #protectuasky
Video: Ukraine Now pic.twitter.com/NAyr86pSeQ— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) April 17, 2022
In Russia's shelling of Kharkiv Center, 5 civilians killed, 13 wounded.
— Alexander Khrebet/Олександр Хребет (@AlexKhrebet) April 17, 2022
Trostnyanets:
From The Independent:
WARNING, WARNING: This reporting contains description of torture!!!!!
Blindfolded, arms and legs bound, and lying in the corner of the torture room, Dima could only hear his fellow prisoner scream and his ribs crack, as the man was beaten to death next to him.
The soldiers had grunted with exertion as they bound the prisoner – Kolya – into the “lastochka” or “swallow” position, an infamous torture method long favoured by Russian forces.
They then got to work as they always did in this makeshift cell below the railway station in Trostyanets, a northeastern Ukrainian town near the border with Russia.
Dima remembers how Kolya, who had apparently denounced Moscow publicly, was subjected to particularly savage violence. Even after Kolya was dragged to the blood-stained room, he refused to stop cursing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fuelling the relentless blows that rained down on him.
It was only when he went quiet that the boots crunched out of the cell. Then Dima heard a gurgle edge Kolya’s breath.
“I screamed at the guards: ‘He is dying, he is dying.’ I tried with my bound feet to push a bottle of water towards him,” says Dima, visibly distressed.
“All they did was laugh and say: ‘If he dies, he dies. All Ukrainians must die.’ I kept calling to Kolya but he didn’t reply,” the part-time mechanic adds.
Trapped in a purgatory of darkness that erased time, Dima thinks Kolya was murdered on the second or third day of his captivity – but he cannot say for sure. “They kept the body next to me until the morning when they removed it and brought in two more people,” he adds.
For 10 days, survivors of this room – all civilians – say they were starved, tortured, subjected to multiple mock executions, threatened with rape and forced to sit in their own excrement by soldiers under Trostyanets station.
This is just part of a slew of new testimonies obtained by The Independent that provide fresh evidence of possible war crimes in Ukraine’s northeastern region of Sumy.
The Independent spoke to two of the survivors: Dima, the first to be held captive, and Andrei, who says he was abducted by soldiers a few days later.
Dima says Kolya was prisoner number four of at least eight civilians held there during the month-long Russian occupation of the town.
He shows us the site, located in a basement under the main ticket hall of the station. It was just a few metres wide, and still smeared in blood.
Three of the detainees are dead or missing: Koyla was killed, and two others, including a military veteran, were beaten almost unconscious before they were taken away. Their whereabouts are still unknown.
Andrei – prisoner number six – says he was stabbed in his left leg, stripped, and threatened with genital mutilation and rape.
At one point, the 33-year-old says, the Russian soldiers gave him electric shocks to his head. The beatings were so brutal he begged his captors to kill him.
His wrists, legs and ankles still bear the signs of torture, and he has lost sensation in his right hand.
“It was a nightmare. It was the worst thing that has ever happened to me,” he adds, his voice shaking.
Moscow has repeatedly and vehemently denied targeting civilians as well as committing war crimes in Ukraine, saying that accusations of torture, rape, summary execution and murder are “monstrous forgeries” aimed at besmirching the reputation of its forces.
But The Independent has collected dozens of testimonies pointing to possible violations of international law in multiple regions of the country: including most recently in Trostyanets.
Even then, the railway torture chamber is feared to be just the tip of the iceberg.
Much, much, much more at the link!
Just about anywhere in Ukraine the Russians have occupied and been driven out:
A visual explanation why it is not advisable to return to deoccupied areas just yet. Neither homes, nor walls on the woods are safe. Emergency service of #Ukraine is working hard to allow safe returns the soonest pic.twitter.com/QGojXFLqCt
— Lesia Vasylenko (@lesiavasylenko) April 17, 2022
As a heads up there is an image of a booby trapped teddy bear – the bear is cream colored, the IED is rigged out of a green Serbian mortar round – is circulating claiming to be from a home in Kyiv is actually a picture of a booby trap left by Wagner mercenaries in Libya on 2020. Images at the link!
Apparently Madame LePen is going through some things. From Reuters:
PARIS, April 17 (Reuters) – French prosecutors said on Sunday they are examining a report by the European Union’s anti-fraud agency accusing far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and members of her party of misappropriating thousands of euros’ worth of EU funds.
Le Pen is challenging Emmanuel Macron in a presidential election with opinion polls showing Macron edging ahead in next Sunday’s second round runoff.
The Paris prosecutor’s office confirmed that it was studying a report it received from the EU anti-fraud agency OLAF on March 11.
Investigative website Mediapart wrote on Saturday that the OLAF report claimed Le Pen had misappropriated 140,000 euros of public money with party members in total diverting 617,000 euros. None are accused of profiting directly, but of claiming EU funds for staff and event expenses.
Le Pen’s office could not immediately be reached for comment.
More at the link!
In other news from France:
⚡️ Zelensky invites Macron to Ukraine to witness 'genocide.'
Zelensky told CNN that French President Emmanuel Macron should visit Ukraine to realize that Russia had unleashed a genocide against Ukraine.
Macron had previously refused to call Russia's actions a genocide.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 17, 2022
Your semi-daily Chef Jose Andres:
With many families now crossing back into Ukraine, lines at the border are getting long…So the @WCKitchen team in Poland jumped into action! Proud to see them doing what we do best—move fast and adapt to food needs! #FoodFighters #ChefsForUkraine ?? https://t.co/i4Qd75kNjj
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 17, 2022
A message for you from Ukraine on this Holy day… In our dark hour I see a future of light. Every day I see the unity & spirit of the Ukrainian people and that is worth celebrating! And @WCKitchen will keep fighting to ensure a plate of food is the start of a better tomorrow… ?? pic.twitter.com/TNaBlSGkBY
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 17, 2022
And we’ll finish with this:
HEROES—Ukrainian volunteers line up in Kyiv to walk and spend time with dogs that were rescued from destroyed towns and are now in a shelter. These are some really good people. Photo: Lesia Smykovska pic.twitter.com/RnPd2IiVwC
— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) April 18, 2022
Open thread!
Origuy
A while back I posted about Olexander Sheremet, a coach for the Ukrainian orienteering team. He was found dead in Irpin (not Bucha, as I said before) with five bullet holes in his body. I learned a little more. He was able to get his wife and children out of Ukraine and they are now safe. He went back to help his father and others. A Ukrainian-American friend of his has been able to raise $1000 to help his family.
Carlo Graziani
Yes, this:
oldster
Thanks for clarifying your use of the “last Ukrainian” phrase, and thanks as always for the update.
I don’t think you needed to mark your beliefs to market — that’s when you change your opinion or view of the case in light of new facts.
Here, you are just changing your mode of expression or a figure of speech, in light of finding out how others use that expression.
Nothing about your understanding of the (non-linguistic) facts changed; you can stick by your beliefs, and just express them differently.
The really offensive thing about most people who use the “last Ukrainian” line is that they portray the Ukrainians as mere pawns without any agency of their own. You have never, ever done that.
YY_Sima Qian
Chomsky might have a point if the majority of Ukrainians want to sue for peace, but the US/NATO have been egging on a minority faction in control to keep on fighting. The reality is that the Ukrainians overwhelminging want to fight, & are fighting (or resisting through other means), & are demanding weapons & more. That dynamic might change if warfare drags on for years & years, but is certainly not the case now.
It’s pretty dismaying to see otherwise intelligent people fall into the trap of viewing the world in Manichaean terms, people who have had incisive critiques against US/Western foreign policies (whether the structural hegemony, interventionism, coercive neoliberalism or general hypocrisy/moral bankruptcy) turning into apologists for anti-Western regimes (& especially for their indefensible policies) solely because they are anti-Western. I see it everywhere in the world: Chinese dissents who are Trump supporters simply because he is perceived to be “tough on the CCP regime”, self-described liberals in Hong Kong & Taiwan supporting Trump for the same reason. I have seen foreign expats in China who have skillfully dissected the myopia, bias & sometimes bad faith in western MSMs coverage of China, turn around & make excuses for the policies failures & human rights abuses of the CCP regime (staying silent is understandable if not necessarily excusable, but making apologia is neither), while also buying into Russian anti-US/NATO propaganda (neither understandable nor excusable).
What is doubly dismaying/tragic is that their currently apologia will discredit their original valid critiques against the US/West in the eyes of many. They had often brought perspectives that are not to be found w/in the convention wisdom of DC, Brussels, London, Paris & Berlin. You can’t really expect the “Blob” to honestly critique itself. Left wing voices are needed to challenge some of the fundamental comfortable assumptions of neoliberal/liberal interventionist conventional wisdom, if the world is to address the coming challenges that will shake the world “order” to the core. It does no one any good for the Left wing to be discredited by its more extremist elements becoming Putin’s “useful idiots”.
SectionH
Serious question – there seem to be some very Democratic Reps who keep demanding that we do more, at least in terms of giving Ukraine the tools. Ted Lieu comes to mind for me. Do you think some Do That from constituents to their reps, at least generally Democratic ones would help that happen? I think we the US could do a lot more in terms of supplies.
Adam L Silverman
@SectionH: I’m not sure I’m clear on what your question is.
L85NJGT
Russia released some photos of the Moskova still “afloat” – it’s clear the bow and superstructure are gone even with a whole lot of down res and photoshop smoke. Likely that blew off, turned over and sank that night as per rescuer accounts, with the burning stern lasting until the next day.
Aussie sheila
@YY_Sima Qian:
This. Exactly.
SectionH
@Adam L Silverman: I guess it’s Can the Democrats in the House show willing to OK more help for Ukraine, and make it happen? eta: and will calling our own reps help?
VOR
There is reason to believe Russia’s true COVID-19 death toll is 2x or higher the official numbers.
Russia has been on a long-term decline in population for the last few decades.
Wikipedia show an estimate of 145M population (including Crimea) which means the COVID-19 death toll could be about 1% of population. The US has 2.3x the population but fewer COVID deaths, so Russia’s death toll could be about 3x per capita that of the US.
Adam L Silverman
@SectionH: Sure. The issue isn’t passing something or Biden signing it. The issue is that we make a big deal about look what we just sent or what we’re sending and when you actually critically look at it, it turns out to be enough for a week or two. The lend lease bill, once the House passes it this week, will help fix some of this. But the larger problem is we’re patting ourselves on the back going look at what we just sent Ukraine and the reality is it’s a small portion of what they require.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Thank you for this. It’s dismaying (doesn’t do justice to the depth of feeling) to watch Chomsky’s antics, isn’t it? Just …. deeply nauseating. As someone put it, nobody with any decency would tell the Palestinians “hey, you lost, the Israelis won, suck it up and find another home”. And yet that’s what Chomsky is telling Ukranians — and they haven’t even lost (and, God willing, they won’t!)
One thing I do wonder about all these “realists”. How does a “regional power” “superpower” lose that status? Surely there comes a moment when some other up-and-comer knocks that superpower off its perch? Do these realists have any theory for how that happens, how the rest of the world is supposed to respond? What if this is one of those moments, when UA is going to knock RU off their perch? Certainly it seems like, after this war is over (and UA wins), they’ll become the most powerful military in Europe, and that should mean a lot.
Sometimes it feels like these “realists” are the opposite of those neoclassical economists that Keynes decried with “in the long run we are all dead”, except that instead of describing “the long run” they describe “yesterday”. By which I mean that, their theories offer just as much guide for action as those economists’.
YY_Sima Qian
@VOR: Actual US deaths from COVID is likely to be 1.5M, possibly 2M. Per capita still better than Russia, but not 3X better.
VOR
@YY_Sima Qian: Agree, US deaths are underreported too. But I’ll wager that Russia’s statistical tampering is far worse than anything in the US. And a war will not make things better, even if the conflict is happening in Ukraine and not Russia.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: It’s called long cycle theory if I’m recalling correctly.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy:
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: A quick Google search makes me think that this “long cycle” theory is …. the IR analogue of those neoclassical economists that Keynes was deriding. Boy howdy.
Alison Rose ???
I’m sure no one here would have thought for a moment that you were aligned ideologically with either of those factions, but I appreciate you making it crystal clear for anyone else who happened upon your posts, Adam.
There needs to be a word for the combination of overwhelming pride, abject fear, incandescent rage, and maddening internal helplessness I feel whenever I watch Zelenskyy speak.
(To be clear: By “internal helplessness” I mean me feeling helpless, not that he or anyone in Ukraine is helpless.)
YY_Sima Qian
Just to be clear, reading through Chomsky’s interview, I don’t think he is actually apologizing for Putin, & he is very much on point about why the Global South has no patience for moralizing from the US/EU. However, his worldview is too distorted by his anti-Western imperialism, a sort of myopia, to the point that his default assumption appears to be that any conflict in the world must have been unnecessarily prolonged to serve the interests of western MIC. That is often true historically (& western weapons manufacturers have displayed unseemly pleasure w/ what the war in Ukraine & tensions across the Taiwan Strait have done to their stock price), but it was not always true (& almost never the sole or most important motivation), & it is not just the western MICs & policy elites that have worked to prolong conflicts.
I would actually be very interested in reading Chomsky’s critique of Putin’s unprovoked aggression in service of Russian imperialism, he may well critique from a different direction w/ a different framework. If he can rise above his myopia.
SectionH
@Adam L Silverman: TY. I think there are some “we” who aren’t remotely patting ourselves, but I take that point too.
bjacques
@YY_Sima Qian: I get irritated when my very left friends fall for this. British author Leila al-Shami coined this as “the anti-imperialism of idiots” in relation to many on the Left spreading Russian and Syrian propaganda; later they applauded Trump’s 2020 withdrawal of troops from Kurdish Syria, leaving anarchist Rojava to Erdogan’s tender mercies. Tl;dr it’s the idea that only western imperialism is bad:
EDIT: she also had serious problems with US involvement in Syria, but said the criticism is in the wrong direction.
https://leilashami.wordpress.com/2018/04/14/the-anti-imperialism-of-idiots/
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: I have plugged him before, but IMO Van Jackson is a great source to follow on Twitter (or his DucksofMinerva podcast) on international relations theory as it applies to current world dynamics, & on the importance of the Left to develop its own coherent IR theory that is neither captured or intimidated by the Beltway “Blob”, nor falling into anti-Western myopia. He actually explained why Realism could appeal to many Leftists, as there is some overlap, but also warned that Lefties do themselves a great disservice by unreservedly embracing Realism, especially Mearsheimer’s variety.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I remember in 2016, Chomsky was *so* clear that the only choice was to vote for Clinton, b/c Trump was unthinkable. And he’s not a stupid man, so I have to believe he knew Trump was Putin’s man. And yet, after four years of chaos and treason, he seems to not connect the dots between Putin’s attack on the US, and the Russia-Ukraine war. One would think that even if one believed in this “IR realism” shit, that he’d also see that degrading Putin’s ability to fight anywhere, *anywhere* was of critical importance for the US, given that we took a decapitation strike against our government in 2016 from the bastard.
EZSmirkzz
There is nothing new under the sun ,
You’re attempting to fill a void in knowledge and understanding Mr. Silverman, which can and will be misconstrued by the ambitious and competitiveness of younger people wishing to more correct than thou. As will the statement I just made.
It is not unusual to see some of the most vociferous MSM critics use the MSM’s anonymous intelligence sourced reporting to critic US intelligence assessments. That’s the game being played in the public eye. One of the things I learned in the run up to the second war on Iraq was the process of intelligence being filtered upward through the hierarchy of various intelligence agencies until it reached the PDB. I have time to put up with various arguments for or against a policy, the President of the US does not. I don’t have to do this, I choose to. “It’s the business we have chosen Michael!”
You’re doing a good job in a difficult fora. Emotions of readers of either left or right opinions are running high, and unemotional assessments will always be wrong.
I suppose it is hyperbole to suggest sending US airborne to Finland or Sweden, or to Donbas before the re-invasion, but I do so anyway because it establishes a line too dangerous for anyone to cross.
There may be victors in war, but no one wins one. War is failure. Full stop.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: IR has a theory problem. Specifically that it’s empirical theories are, at best, normative theories. A lot of them are just untestable explanations to be honest.
YY_Sima Qian
@bjacques: Yeah, people are too conditioned by the events of the last several centuries, when Imperialism has been dominated by Western countries (to the extent that post-Meiji Reformation Japan desperately wanted to be viewed as “Western”). When “anti-Imperialists” act like idiots, “anti-Imperialism” is all too easily painted as fringe idiocy.
Mallard Filmore
@Chetan Murthy:
The YouTube algorithms have been suggesting to me the vids of Peter Zeihan. His outlook on Russia and China is interesting.
One of the videos he did mentioned the very subject you bring up. France and Great Britain started shedding their world spanning colonies like mad after Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal. Those two sent their armies to take the canal back, but had to stand down when the USA and other big powers did not back them.
After that, there were a lot of independence movements.
Aussie sheila
@YY_Sima Qian:
Yeah. The US left is particularly bad on this issue. It’s like they don’t grok imperialism at all, except as a totem against their domestic opponents. There is a long list of third world strong man dictators once lauded by this particular version of it. What also amuses me (not), is the unspoken assumption among many that contemporary Russia has some international cred because something, something WW2 and the Soviet Union. It is beyond parody.
I’m as close to absolute pacifist as you can get in this world, but if people can’t see what is happening in and to, Ukraine and it’s people, they are wilfully blind. The Ukrainian people must decide if, how and when this ends. If that means more effective and more lethal weaponry, then that is what they need and that is what they should get.
I believe that this struggle is not just about Ukraine, although their suffering should be uppermost in mind, but it is also about defeating international revanchism, which Russia, once again, epitomises and facilitates.
The 19th and early 20th century left understood Russia and the role it played in international reaction. What a pity there is a section of the current left that doesn’t know or hasn’t read about the real antecedents of Putin.
Chetan Murthy
@L85NJGT: I keep going back to this tweet, and thinking about your comment.
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1515835497867878404
I remember when the pics first came out, and I couldn’t understand how the part that was clear in the pic seemed to be about half the ship, but it seemed so much *longer* than the part of the ship that was obscured in smoke. And I wondered “surely perspective can’t be playing games with such small distances?” Your point that maybe a good part of the front of the ship got blown off, could explain this discrepancy.
VeniceRiley
First picture of the sinking Moskva
https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/1515820381013168135?s=21&t=JmtWZXJEThYreX02IUfYMQ
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Ya know, the last time I heard the world “realist” this negativity like this was by the Neo-Cons in the lead up to the Iraq War to marginalize anyone in the Bush Admin who though the invasion was an incredibly stupid idea. You sure you want to be in with that crowd?
YY_Sima Qian
@Aussie sheila: It’s a human thing. The US right don’t give a sh*t about life except when using “Pro-Life” as a totem against their domestic opponents. The West supported (still does support) plenty of “our bastards” in the geopolitical competition. You see prominent coverage is western MSMs on human rights abuses in Xinjiang, but much less on Kashmir; a lot of coverage on lack of free speech in China, but not on lack of free speech in Vietnam, etc.
Chetan Murthy
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I take it you’re referring to that famous quote about “the reality based community” and “we make our own reality” ? I think that “IR realism” and “the reality-based community” are …. not related terms, so I’m not too worried about bashing the former.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Seemingly every bloody government we ever supported in Central and South America (you can add to the list). “He may be a bastard, but he’s our bastard” indeed.
ETA: and our warlord “allies” in AFG were a piece of work, some of them. Sheesh.
Aussie sheila
@YY_Sima Qian:
Yeah. I’m under no illusions about the Right. But I expect better from the left. If people just react on the basis of some hierarchy of ideological preferences rather than any analysis of what is actually happening, then they aren’t part of any principled left, they are f’wits, and in this case, are excuses of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Ugh!
bjacques
Somewhat on topic, I’ve been meaning to speak up on Obama’s “red line” on Assad using chemical weapons on his own people. As I recall, it required political and military support from the UK which they voted down because too many Tory or Lib Dem MPs had already left for summer holidays. At the time I applauded it, not having put two and two together. To this day, the narrative is Obama’s mouth wrote a check his ass couldn’t cash, which isn’t fair.
EDIT: It was a lot more complicated than that. It usually is. The UK Parliament vote isn’t even mentioned, but I guess it was just one missing piece of many.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/inside-the-white-house-during-the-syrian-red-line-crisis/561887/
Medicine Man
I’ll be more blunt about (portions of) the Left as I vent. There are some real broke-brained mother-f**kers out there who effectively buy into the whole American exceptionalism frame from the other flank. They’ll believe any story provided it omits the motives, actions, and malice of the people who actually instigated this war and are fighting it.
I think that for some portion of the anti-war, anti-imperial Left, acknowledging there are multiple bad actors in the world implicitly recognizes valid use-cases for arms, security services, and intelligence services, and that is just not a level of ambiguity they are comfortable with.
I’m tormented by the idea that it will be us in The West who will be the weak link in all this.
YY_Sima Qian
@Aussie sheila: Agree.
oldster
@Medicine Man:
“…American exceptionalism frame from the other flank….”
That’s a really good way to describe this kind of myopia. They still think that the US has to be the center of every narrative, and if only babies believe in heroes, then the US will be their dark sadistic anti-hero.
Whereas the first principle of anti-imperialism should be, “hey, temporary emperors: it’s not all about you.”
People all around the globe are in the center of their own stories. True for Tacitus’ proto-Germans, true for the Ukrainians now.
(Of course, the US is not the only imperium to believe in its own exceptionalism. Ancient Egypt, Greece, Rome, and so on: everybody gets high on their own supply, and thinks they’re the center of the universe. To think the US is unique would be to fall for… meta-exceptionalism!)
Chetan Murthy
@oldster: Britain’s “white man’s burden”, France’s “mission civilisatrice”.
ColoradoGuy
This thread echoes a comment I heard from one of my European friends when I went to an audio conference in 2005: “OK, if the American Empire is so bad, name just one empire that was better. At any time in history.” Followed by a long pause, and the growing realization that mankind is probably centuries away from outgrowing empires … the Star Trek future, not anything we have now.
Was the Roman Empire better? Of course not. Far worse. Was the Spanish Empire better? No. Was the Russian Empire of Stalin better? No, obviously not. Ask any Eastern European that experienced Communism.
That exchange basically knocked the Chomsky idealism out of me. As long as empires are part of the human condition, the serious question is: how bad, in comparison to all the others?
oldster
@Chetan Murthy:
Yup. Humans are a narcissistic bunch. (Most narcissistic species of all time? We’d like to think so!)
Geminid
@oldster: I saw an example of this “myopia” recently in an explaination of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent fall from power. Khan, a leftist explained, crossed the U.S. by keeping his country neutral in the Ukraine war, and even visited Moscow recently. So, the U.S. had him thrown out.
There is a kind of know-nothingism going on here, whereby a nation of 180 miion people gets reduced to so many two dimensional characters in a cartoon. I may not know much about Pakistan’s politics, but I know that I don’t. Some of these people don’t even want to know more because they think they know it all anyway.
Ken
@ColoradoGuy: Communism was worse for Polish people than the Slave system was for Black people in America from 1619 until 1865? Really?
Geminid
Looking up “Ukraine news” this morning I saw that a Russian missle barrage struck the Western Ukrainian city of Lviv, killing at least six of that city’s residents. They were described as the city’s first fatalities in the war.
And Al Jazeera has an article titled “Hundreds of thousands flee Russia and Russia’s ‘two wars’.” The second war referenced is the one Putin’s regime is waging agaist dissenting citizens. Writers quote a Russian-born, University of Chicago-based economist who says that 200,000 Russians left that country in the first ten days of the war.
Other sources estimate that 4 to 5 million Russians have emigrated since 2000. While many moved to Europe or North America, since 2014 others have been moving to former Soviet republics. A Russian playwright featured in the article was interviewed in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia.
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: I saw some brief video on twitter showing the initial explosion on the Moskva. It was on the starboard side maybe a third of the way back from the bow. The blast was pretty big. I suspect that the Ukrainian cruice missile exploded some of the ship’s own cruise missiles that were in the large tubes that I see in pictures of the former warship. I think there were eight on a side, some alongside the bridge.
I also read that the Moskva’s firefighting and damage control capabilities were poor. Pictures show surviving crew members standing in rankd, and there are only fifty or so. I guess there are others in hospitals or walking wounded, but it sounds like Russia’s navy may lost 400 or more sailors from that ship.
lowtechcyclist
@Adam L Silverman:
AFAICT, the self-back-patting originates with the Administration. I know people here hate any criticism of Biden, but if the rest of us are patting ourselves on the back because of the (insufficient) military aid we’re giving, it’s because we figure they’re not giving Ukraine scraps and selling it as a feast.
Our Administration needs to state, as its policy, that our objective is to give Ukraine the tools it needs to push Russia out of eastern Ukraine as swiftly as possible, so that Russia has less time in fewer places to continue committing the atrocities it’s been committing.
And then we need to give them those tools, from tanks and jets down to all the little stuff an army runs on that our supply and logistics people know intimately but I wouldn’t have a clue about.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: I believe you follow David Dayen’s writing. You may be interested in a Politico article from six days ago about Dayen’s magazine The American Prospect. The title is, “The lefty magazine flexing Biden-era muscle.” Evidently the Prospect is one of the few media outlets that has gained readership since Joe Biden took office.
YY_Sima Qian
@ColoradoGuy: Until WW II, I don’t think one can claim that the American Empire was better than the European or Japanese ones. If it did less damage, it was because it was late to the game. Post-WW II, to the extent that the US behaved better than the older empires, it was because the US sometimes consciously acted not as an empire. The establishment of the UN, the Breton Woods institutions, the WTO, etc. really was a better way to organize the world than status quo ante, even as the Breton Woods institutions institutionalized the hegemony of the developed & industrialized West, & the UNSC institutionalized the hegemony of the great powers. When the US refuses to be constrained by such institutions it helped establish & legitimize, & instead turns to “coalitions of willing” (in essence ad hoc gangs of nations), it is no better, see Iraq, or the Trump Administration crippling the functioning of the WTO & focusing on bilateral economic coercion.
More & more, the bipartisan consensus in DC indicate a strong preference in ad hoc multilateralism/“mini-lateralism” to push US agenda, & the coalition can expand & contract depending on the issue. That is the sad state of “liberal internationalism” these days. The shift is driven by the fact that the US (& the West more broadly) can no longer dictate terms in the post-WW II institutions. However, instead of seeking to woo the non-aligned Global South to its point of view, the US (& members of the West more broadly) are turning to bespoke groupings of the “like minded”.
Someone upthread asked about the turning over of regional & global powers. The US actually pointed to a better way post-WW II in establishing international institutions w/ rules that all countries that acknowledged & sometimes played by (more or less). A true global order needs to equally constrain the greatest powers & the least powers. Otherwise, the “US led ‘liberal’ international order” is merely 1 great power leading a group of powers (w/ clear concentric circles of “closeness”) dictating rules to the rest, rules that they do not feel constrained by themselves. One can certainly argue that the US has been a more benevolent Mafia boss than other alternatives, but let’s not kid ourselves as to the nature of the current “order”.
The US can still take the lead on trying something new & better, while it is still the most powerful nation in the world. The EU is not likely to object, since it is neither willing nor able to play the hegemonic game. The “middle powers” & the Global South will probably favor such a order, well. If the US waits until it is knocked off from the hegemon’s perch (by China or another power), it will be too late to effect change, the new hegemon can play classic divide & conquer.
Naive? Probably, no hegemon likes to be constrained. OTOH, it took centuries to journey from Magna Carta to liberal representative democracy, doing the same for international relations will take just as long. Knowing human nature, though, progress will only come after multiple global calamities (e.g., WW II).
oldster
@YY_Sima Qian:
Cosign on everything you say here.
debbie
@Aussie sheila:
I love Joe, but he has to step up his game. Europe, too. Doing the right thing may not be easy, but it’s still right.
bookworm1398
It would really be helpful for Ukraine in making their plans if the West was clearer about what they were going to send and when. The current waffling, we will send some tanks eventually, makes it difficult for them to plan what to do next week militarily as well as what political goal to go for long term. It’s possible that direct communication is clearer than what we are seeing in the press, but I doubt it. It seems most politicians don’t know themselves how much they are willing to do.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: One “bespoke gathering of the like-minded” is shaping up in the Middle East. Gulf Arab nations have had longstanding and unpublicized security relations with Israel, but now that Bahrain and the UAE have established diplomatic relations with the country they had shunned since 1948, an anti-Iran military alliance is out in the open. The U.S. military recently transferred Israel from it’s Northern (European) Command to Central Command. Last month the U.S. Navy held a “security exersecise” in the Red Sea, and a couple Israeli ships came down from Eilat and participated alongside ships of Arab countries that would not have tolerated them a few years ago.
Saudi Arabia has stated that it is willing to recognize Israel, but will not until there is a just settlement for the Palestinians. Meanwhile, though, reports are that the Saudi and Israeli militaries are intensifying cooperation in the area of air defense.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: All of the above actually point to a devolution of global order. Similarly, global trade is starting to fragment, w/ regional & “mini”-lateral trade pacts springing up following the failure of the Doha round of WTO negotiations that would have developed a single regime for the world.
J R in WV
The photos of the ru cruiser burning after its encounter with Ukranian missiles are interesting from the viewpoint of my training as a firefighter in the USN some 51 years ago. We were taught from the viewpoint of the fire aboard the US Forrestal:
That fire involved munitions on the flight deck as well as airborne flares, long beams of magnesium with a little parachute for night fighting. Water won’t extinguish a magnesium fire, it just make it burn hotter. They filled compartments below the burning flares with sand to keep them from burning out the bottom of the Carrier.
I never fought a serious fire on board ship, but once had a serious fire in the utility room of our old farmhouse, after the two large fire extinguishers failed (having lost their CO2 charge over time) the last little glovebox sized extinguisher worked to put out the burning ceiling, wall and cardboard containers of parts and tools. Was a V. close call~!!~
Moskva burned and sank, looks like the russian navy lost 400+ sailors in that successful Ukrainian attack as well. Good job, no wonder the Commander of that operation was promoted to Admiral!
Ramalama
So funny that Current Affairs interviews Noam Chomsky, the linguist, on policy matter & foreign affairs. Are they a liberal rag? Or is it possible that they featured him because Chomsky has been writing and speaking – for pay – on such matters since the Viet Nam war?
If they are a liberal rag, then why shouldn’t they talk to him?
Tell me again what mainstream media outfits ever feature liberal views. OK you have MSNBC. But for a decade or more bloggers like Atrios and Roger Moore (not the monster) kept track of who was featured on various Sunday Adult Serious Policy TV. The count, no matter who was in office, was ALWAYS more conservatives than anyone else. And most of those conservative voices mouthed illogical arguments.
Ramalama
@oldster: It’s not Chomsky’s line, he quoted an ambassador:
RevRick
@lowtechcyclist: The logistics is incredibly hard. I’m surprised Adam is so dismissive. Those M-113s weigh 12 tons each, so that’s 2,400 tons right there. Those Hummers, another 300 tons. Those 18 howitzers, are only 164 tons, but will be supported with about 2,000 tons of ammo. The rest of the stuff is thousands of tons more. And we only have so much airlift capacity to move it!
It’s not like Amazon Prime here, where we can get next day delivery.
And let’s not forget about the efforts of NATO/EU allies shipping all their hardware to the Ukraine. We’re not the only ones providing assistance to Ukraine.
zhena gogolia
It wasn’t enough for Chomsky to ruin the field of linguistics.
terry chay
Without a doubt our military aid is far short of what Ukrainians need, but I have a hard time believing that 500 Javelins is only 3 days worth. When used correctly, these things have a 95% success rate. They need to be awash with Javelins both because they can’t be used everywhere and because their optics double as night vision which was an advantage (vs. Russia’s military) that was extremely important in at least the phases of the War up until this point, but exhausting the Javelin?
The conclusion is that they are misusing the Javelin (doubtful) or this is an exaggeration which diminishes the effect.
I suspect the reality is that the shipment of arms of something useful like the Javelin is a function of the actual possible supply rate negotiated with partners and the promise of replenishing, and not some withholding on the part of the U.S. All signs point to the U.S. withholding things based on politics or capability, with the political limitation incrementally being repealed. For instance, they supplied the initial tranche of 100 switchblade drones and we find out in another article that the first tranche of Ukrainians trained on the drones (added to their training at the last minute) “happened” to arrive at the same time. Similarly, we found out the back-and-forth on Mi-17 transport helicopters was based on Ukrainian requests against it and we know this helicopter is not U.S. made but was part of what was recovered from the war in Afghanistan, again pointing to both a limited number and being restricted to what the Ukrainian army was trained on/familiar with.
Ukraine seems in it for the long haul (years) and U.S. sanctions policy only makes sense from the same perspective. Given that, after the first month, it would make sense that they’ve started a program to train Ukrainians on western weaponry (including planes BTW) and eventually extending the aid. to do this.
I would like to see the U.S. aid become permanent/continuous instead of stop-gap and that aid extend to other areas like their economy. We spent an egregious amount in Afghanistan and Iraq on both, we can easily do the same here without breaking a sweat. And that’s what it’s going to take on our side to win this as we are unwilling to do the dying.
Nettoyeur
I speak Russian and am learning Ukrainian…..it’s going fast enough that I am beginning to appreciate Zelenskyy’s speeches in Ukrainian. And wow….he has made language into a inspiring and precision guided weapon.
SWMBO
@VOR: Florida says hold mah beer…
Sam I know what I’m talking about
I dislike these comments. 20,000,000 rounds of small arms ammo and 40,000 artillery rounds and a total of more than 20,000 atgm rounds is a lot. Should we/can we provide more? Probably, and we are. It isn’t as if we have large stocks of ex sov weapons to backfill Ukrainian expenditures, and new weapons introduce a separate logistic/maintenance and repair pipeline that takes time to fill. We are doing a lot, people lose sight of that. No other country in the world could move the iron mountain of weaponry we have sent to Ukraine with the same rapidity. So sure, more, but please do not lose sight of the fact that we have basically equipped a large army hallway around the world in a month. That is commitment.