Let’s start tonight as we have the past several with Mariupol. This morning Putin told his Defense Minister, Shoigu, to not try to reduce the Azovstal complex where Mariupol’s defenders are holding on. Rather, Putin told Shoigu to basically just seal it off.
Putin is hailing Russia's "liberation" of Mariupol after his forces completely destroyed during a two-month siege.
He told defense minister Sergei Shoigu to block off the Azovstal metallurgical plant, where the last Ukrainian troops are holed up, "so that a fly can't get in." pic.twitter.com/g2lNd44qXF
— max seddon (@maxseddon) April 21, 2022
This is an important data point because I think it tells us something about the state of the dozen battalion tactical groups (BTGs) that Russia has in Mariupol trying to defeat the Azov Regiment and the 36th Separate Marine Brigade. Specifically, that Russia’s forces in Mariupol cannot do so. Because if they could, they would and Putin wouldn’t be telling Shoigu just to seal off the Azovstal facility. There are no reporters left in Mariupol, so all the info that comes out is either via the leaders and members of the Azov Regiment and the 36th Separate Marine Brigade, civilians who have either been able to escape Mariupol or make contact with relatives or friends outside of Mariupol, or from the legitimate members of the Mariupol government. What we don’t have are independent journalists able to report on the state of Russia’s forces. Putin’s orders this morning, however, tell us something important. He doesn’t have enough troops and the troops he has are in no condition to continue to fight the Azov Regiment’s and the 36th Separate Marine Brigade’s guerilla war through the streets and ruined buildings of Mariupol.
This is also the conclusion of The Kyiv Independent‘s military reporter:
Interpreting it for you guys from Putin’s into human language: “Our forces in Mariupol are extremely exhausted after over 50 days in fierce urban combat, and we just can’t spend even more time and resources to zerg rush this 5-km wide steel plant turned into a giant fortress.” pic.twitter.com/4mSozfsPdg
— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) April 21, 2022
If this is indeed the case, then if the Ukrainians can get fresh troops and the right equipment on site, they can break Mariupol’s defenders and the citizens they’re defending and sheltering out and get them to safety. President Zelenskyy seems to think so as well.
⚡️Zelensky about lifting Mariupol blockade: 'We're preparing, but we need weapons.'
Ukraine’s military is preparing to unblock Mariupol through diplomatic or military means, but the country needs the right weapons from its allies, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on April 21.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 21, 2022
Also, something else important here: all the speculation that Shoigu had a/another heart attack last week, that it was because he was poisoned, that Putin was trying to have him executed via the wet work program, etc appears to have been BS. Which is why I was ignoring it because it was, at best, poorly sourced.
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s video address for this evening, with English subtitles. The transcript will be after the jump.
Ukrainians!
Our defenders!
Today was a very meaningful foreign policy day for Ukraine. First, the Prime Ministers of Spain and Denmark, two countries that have consistently supported Ukraine, have arrived in Kyiv. Thank you.
The two leaders whose presence in Kyiv encourages other leaders of the democratic world to think about visits to Ukraine, about new gestures of support for our state, about concrete decisions that we need to win. I thanked them for helping our defense. For sanctions pressure on Russia.
I called on Spain, Denmark and all other European democracies to further strengthen sanctions for this war. To finally impose an oil embargo, to disconnect the entire banking system of Russia from the global financial system.
And to help us bring to justice all those guilty of war crimes against Ukrainians.
The Prime Minister of Denmark stated readiness to support the program of post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, in particular the reconstruction and development of Mykolaiv and the shipbuilding industry of Ukraine. Let me remind you that this is the direction of reconstruction I proposed when addressing the Parliament and the people of Denmark in March.
And today I addressed the Parliament and the people of Portugal. This was the 26th address to the parliaments of our partner states. I can say that each of these speeches really gives us additional support. Brings the decision to provide assistance to Ukraine, including defensive one, closer. And most importantly, each of these addresses helps establish a direct emotional connection between what we are experiencing in Ukraine and what the political class is experiencing in the partner countries.
I also addressed the participants of the special spring session of the World Bank today. This is one of the most important events for the heads of international financial institutions and finance ministers of leading states. We are accumulating financial support for Ukraine.
The United States has announced a new package of support for our state. We are grateful for that. This package contains very powerful defense tools for our military. In particular, it is artillery, shells, drones. This is what we expected.
I am grateful to the partners for their help and call for further acceleration of the supply of weapons to Ukraine so that we can bring peace closer.
In the south and east of our country, the occupiers continue to do everything to have a reason to talk about at least some victories. They are accumulating forces, driving new battalion tactical groups to our land. They are even trying to start the so-called mobilization in the occupied regions of Ukraine.
None of these steps will help Russia in the war against our state. They can only delay the inevitable – the time when the invaders will have to leave our territory. In particular Mariupol. A city that continues to resist Russia. Despite everything the occupiers say.
I urge the residents of the southern regions of Ukraine – Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions – to be very careful about what information you provide to the invaders. And if they ask you to fill out some questionnaires, leave your passport data somewhere, you should know – this is not to help you. Not just to carry out a “census” of people who live in a certain area, as they say. No. And not to give you any humanitarian aid. This is aimed to falsify the so-called referendum on your land, if an order comes from Moscow to stage such a show. And this is the reality. Be careful.
I want to say straight away: any “Kherson People’s Republics” are not going to fly. If someone wants a new annexation, it can only lead to new powerful sanctions strikes on Russia. You will make your country as poor as Russia hasn’t been since the 1917 civil war. So it is better to seek peace now.
Unfortunately, Russia rejected the proposal to establish an Easter truce. This shows very well how the leaders of this state actually treat the Christian faith, one of the most joyful and important holidays.
But we keep our hope. Hope for peace, hope that life will overcome death.
Tomorrow is Good Friday for Eastern Christians. The most sorrowful day of the year. A day when everything you can do in life will weigh less than prayer. Except for one… defending the Homeland, defending brothers-in-arms in battle.
A few minutes ago, before delivering this address, I signed another decree on awarding our heroes, our military. 202 defenders of Ukraine were awarded state awards. 194 servicemen of the Armed Forces and 8 servicemen of the State Service of Special Communication and Information Protection of Ukraine.
I am grateful to everyone who defends the state!
Eternal memory to all who died for Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s operational update for today:
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on April 21, 2022
The fifty-seventh day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues. A russian federation continues its full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine.
russian enemy continued offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone in order to establish full control over the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. At the same time, missile and bomb strikes on military and civilian infrastructure throughout Ukraine continue.
In the Volyn, Polissya and Siversky directions russian enemy did not take active actions, no signs of formation of offensive groups were found. There is a significant reduction in the intensity of the movement of columns of russian military equipment on the territory of the republic of belarus. Some units of the belarusian Armed Forces continue to carry out tasks to cover the Ukrainian-belarusian border in Brest and Gomel regions.
The situation in Slobozhanshchyna has not changed significantly. The partial blockade of Kharkiv and the destruction of the city’s infrastructure by artillery continue. In the temporarily occupied territory of Kharkiv region, russian occupying forces prohibit the movement of the local population towards the territory controlled by the Defense Forces of Ukraine, the delivery of humanitarian aid from the Ukrainian side is blocked.
In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, russian enemy tried to take full control of Mariupol. It continued to carry out air strikes and attempted assaults in the area of the seaport and the Azovstal plant.
In the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson oblast, the self-proclaimed occupation authorities announced the mobilization of males. In addition, according to available information, a so-called “referendum” is planned for May 1 in the russian-occupied part of the Kherson region. And in the period May 2-10 there is planned to be a “census”. Locals are prohibited from moving between settlements.
The shelling of Mykolayiv continues in the South Buh direction, russian enemy is trying to improve its tactical position and get closer to the city, but has no success.
russian enemy continues to suffer significant losses in personnel and military equipment. According to updated data, commander of the First Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Second Motorized Rifle Division of the First Tank Army of the Western Military District, Lieutenant Colonel Denis Mezhuyev, was eliminated by the defenders of Ukraine. Two members of the leadership of the same unit, Colonel Kharitonov and Lieutenant Colonel Smirnov, were also seriously injured and are being treated in Moscow.
In addition, the mobilization of russian occupying units is significantly demoralized by the forced mobilization in unrecognized territorial formations of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, poor nutrition, low financial and material support of the personnel who arrived to replenish regular units of the russian federation.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Let’s win together!
Glory to Ukraine!
It turns out there was a senior defense official background briefing yesterday, but they didn’t post the transcript until much later than usual. So here it is:
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: We continue to see Russia conduct offensive operations in the east as well as continued shaping operations. But, clearly, there are offensive operations going on, as we talked about yesterday.
Russian forces are advancing south from the north side of the Donbas, and they are trying to maintain pressure on Ukrainian forces to the west of Donetsk. Fighting continues in the Kherson region. We assess that Ukrainian forces have regained control of a town called Oleksandrivka, which is about 40 kilometers south of Mykolayiv. We maintain that Mariupol was still being contested, that there still is an active Ukrainian resistance at the Azovstal plant.
In the air domain, again, strikes really focused on the joint force operation area particular around Izyum. And in the north of the Donbas, the JFO, and then obviously in the south, very much focused, continued focused on Mariupol. And these are airstrikes that include the use of some fixed-wing Russian bombers as well.
Again, that is not unusual. That’s what we’ve been seeing. But, just so you know, it’s a range.
We haven’t seen any — over the last 24 hours, we haven’t seen any additional Russian airstrikes elsewhere in Ukraine. It’s all been focused on the east and in the south, literally the JFO and Mariupol, over the last 24 hours.
No changes in the maritime domain. I know this remains an interest item for all of you, but the Russian navy continues to still be postured largely off the coast of Crimea and well away from southern coast, there, near Odesa, and that part of the northern Black Sea. So no big changes to the naval posture there.
Flights continue to arrive into the region from the presidential drawdown authorities that we are executing. Additional — another four flights arrived over the last 24 hours from the most recent announcement of the $800 million, and some of those flights did include howitzers. In the next 24, there will be additional flights coming from the United States into the region with howitzers.
And let’s see. There has already been the howitzer rounds, the 155mm rounds, have arrived in the region, and more will be coming. That is not, as I think we talked about yesterday, that’s largely coming from pre-positioned stock, so there’s no reason to fly those things in. They’re coming from inside Europe, but those — they are arriving — they started arriving yesterday, and they’re going to — and there’ll be more arriving today and in the coming days as well, until we, you know, get to that 40,000-round number that was offered in the $800 million package.
And yes, the training of some small number of Ukrainians on the howitzers has begun. It has begun in a country outside Ukraine. I am not going to tell you, or be able to detail where this is happening, but it has happened, and we expect this training to last for about a week. And this is train the trainers. It’s a smallish number of Ukrainians, a little bit more than 50. They will get trained on how to use the howitzers, and then they’ll be able to go back into Ukraine and train their colleagues.
Q: (inaudible) focused on one — or I really have two questions, but one is just a kind of a follow-up on the [Pentagon Press Secretary Statement Regarding Ukraine Aircraft, 20 April] about Ukrainian aircraft. Do I understand that although Ukraine has not received all aircraft, that the point you made just the point that was made yesterday about, they still have (inaudible) aircraft flying, it still holds because of the spare parts?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: That is correct, Bob, [Pentagon Press Secretary Statement Regarding Ukraine Aircraft, 20 April] was talking about fixed wing. I think you all understand that they have been given helicopters, whole helicopters, including some from the United States. [Discussion of Pentagon Press Secretary Statement Regarding Ukraine Aircraft, 20 April]
But it is true that they have more aircraft by a factor — this is on background, in fact, I’m fine if you report it on background. They have more than 20 additional aircraft available to them than they did three weeks ago, and that is because of the shipment and arrival of spare parts that have been able to get some of their inoperable aircraft, fixed-wing fighter aircraft, in operable condition. So by more than 20, they have increased their fleet because of the work that the United States and the international community has done to help get them the parts they need to get them in the air.
The rest of the Q&A at the link and I’ve highlighted the part of the Q&A that clarifies the aircraft thing. Which, despite a seemingly unambiguous statement that I posted in yesterday’s update, was still unclear.
Strategic communication, how does it work?!?!?!
Here’s the latest British MOD assessment from earlier today (emphasis mine):
And here’s their latest map update:
Still in line with what we’ve been seeing for the past week.
I want to draw your attention to this thread of reporting from Michael Weiss and then tie it back into the British assessment for today. First tweet followed by the rest of the thread copied and pasted into a quote box.
?New from @holger_r and me: "Karl," our Estonian defense specialist, offers his insights into Russia's eastern offensive.
— Michael Weiss ????? (@michaeldweiss) April 20, 2022
- “The offensive started at the weekend. That’s when the intensity of the battles grew. We know because Russia’s losses were higher than on the days before.”
- “This phase will be different than when the war started on Feb 24. Russia will not attack across the whole frontline, simultaneously. The intensity of fighting is roughly twice as much as what came before.”
- “The Russians are focused on two axes: 1) Izyum, 2) Severodonetsk and surrounding towns. They’ve had some success in Kreminna, but that’s a tactical decision by Ukraine. 130 Russians were hospitalized from there in the last day. This indicates dozens were killed. That’s a lot.”
- “Perspective: If Russia doesn’t succeed in 1.5 weeks, their offensive will subside. Then a countdown starts for Ukraine’s counteroffensive. I’m still cautiously optimistic about Russia not succeeding.”
- “Russia simply doesn’t have enough forces in the east. Ukraine believes they have 90 BTGs; the U.S. says it’s less than 80. Ukraine has at least the same number of troops to defend.”
- “Russia has more armor, tanks, and artillery. Ukraine has more precision weapons but not enough to react all along the front. Russia has too many ‘dumb’ weapons, which makes a Ukrainian counteroffensive difficult.”
- “Ukraine’s tactics remains the same: ambush battles, destruction of convoys. Ukraine can’t do force v. force and doesn’t try to.”
- “Another positive: Ukraine keeps getting new arms, new equipment. Russia can’t get it from anywhere and only gets weaker. The supply chain from Russia to Izyum is as long as from Belarus to Kyiv. This makes Russia more careful than it was in the beginning of the war.”
- “Mariupol falling would be a PR win for Russia but wouldn’t have too much of an impact militarily. Russia’s BTGs battling there are in no condition to continue fighting on another front. That said, I don’t believe Mariupol will fall in the next few days.”
- “Ukraine has experience from 2014 when it held onto the Donetsk Int’l Airport for six months. The area of the Azovstal steel factory is many times larger. Every possible war scenario indicated Russia would encircle Mariupol. Ukraine stocked it with ammunition and food.”
- “The goal of striking Kramatorsk railway station wasn’t to hinder Ukraine’s military movements. It was to complicate civilian evacuation. Civilians in the battlespace affects Ukrainian troops. Russia, on the contrary, doesn’t care about civilian lives.”
- “Russia has 10-12 BTGs in reserve behind its borders but no one knows their real condition. It’s complicated to get the BTGs to full capacity. Russia is desperately mobilizing from DNR/LNR…”
- “They’re force 55-60 year-old men into the Russian army. It’s a huge and desperate risk as among them are those who will turn their weapons against that army.”
- “I can’t see how Russia can declare a big win in two weeks (before May 9). It can get tiny tactical wins only. There is no reason why Ukraine’s defenses should fail.”
- “It’s a very risky gambit for Russia. See today’s news about a pro-Russian blogger getting shot & killed in Kherson.”
- “Public opinion in Russia can change only if the battle of Donbass fails. There’s no force inside the country to effectively oppose the war. Soldiers’ mothers come the closest.” / ENDS
The British have been assessing and others have been speculating that Putin has rushed the start of the Donbas campaign to fit into his own timeline based on the mythology that he’s pushed for years around the 9th of May. And, as a result, he needs some sort of victory that is more than taking some villages to show off on that date. If this is indeed the case, then his orders to Shoigu this morning also make sense. Go back to the first part of Sneddon’s tweet at the top of the post:
Putin is hailing Russia’s “liberation” of Mariupol after his forces completely destroyed during a two-month siege.
This is basically declaring victory and moving on.
I do want to highlight this reporting, which contradicts the sixth tweet above about Russia having more tanks:
NEW: Ukraine has more tanks available in country than Russia, thanks to European deliveries of Soviet-era T-72 tanks: senior defense official
U.S. has NO tanks to give Ukraine because ?? military is using Soviet-era equipment.
— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 21, 2022
And in case you’ve missed it, the USAF is now making bespoke tactical drones for the Ukrainians. If only the Ukrainians had some of those mythical technical sergeants spoken about in the ancient sagas. (Somewhere Leto gets a sharp shooting pain to the temple…)
Clarification: The Phoenix Ghost is a tactical drone similar to the Switchblade, but with some different capabilities: senior U.S. defense official
The U.S. Air Force developed it in line with Ukraine's needs. It will require some training for Ukrainian troops. https://t.co/QOVb2flZzM
— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 21, 2022
Here is an excellent thread from a retired Royal Air Force Air Marshal on the Airpower takeaways from Ukraine’s defense against the Russian reinvasion:
Some thoughts on the air war over Ukraine and its implications for air forces in general. I caveat all by stating that we don't know very much about UKR tactics, and if we did we wouldn't want to be too descriptive. But we can pick out some essential observations. 1/11
— Edward Stringer?? (@edwardstrngr) April 21, 2022
- The first point is that in the eighth week of this war the Russian Air Force (VKS) still shows no sign of running a campaign to gain air superiority. Given the advantages it has in the ‘physical component’ of air combat power this is truly remarkable. So it probably cannot. 2/11
- And that means that the Russian army cannot discount air attack at any time, and UKR can plan to make use of the air environment. This could prove to be the factor that tips the balance in effective overall combat power, and it arises… 3/11
- …because the UKR armed forces are clearly leading in the ‘conceptual component’ of air combat power. They have worked out how to take a massive inferiority in numbers and turn that around by fighting smarter. There are lessons here in Air C2 for all air forces. 4/11
- Even, perhaps especially, the dominant ones of high-tech NATO. These have got used to rolling out air dominance since Gulf War 1. Maybe they will always be able to. But repeating a well worn tactical process – albeit a complicated one – has replaced ‘Air Generalship’. 5/11
- Few senior Western airman have had to work out from scratch how to use air power capabilities in less favourable circumstances to achieve campaign aims. In contrast,@KpsZSU has had to think around the problem. 6/11
- What they seem to have done is used intelligence to selectively attack Russian air raids. These appear to have been relatively effective in kill ratios – but the UKR ‘air force’ has also achieved many kills from MANPADS missiles, and even artillery shelling airfields. 7/11
- Or Bayrakter TB2 v RUS SAMs. This implies good coordination between Air and Land air defence assets. Which RUS has not achieved. Together, this UKR air defence system has achieved a huge ‘soft kill’ in deterring VKS raids; rarely now do they cross the FLOT. 8/11
- In the space created UKR has learnt to use modern, novel tactics of drones and loitering munitions to act as ‘poor mans air superiority’. This is not, yet, in the NATO air forces play book. And I would hazard a guess that NATO army/air force coord is not as good. 9/11
- So I conclude that NATO air forces should humbly approach@KpsZSU and offer to share a mission exploitation exercise to find out what worked, what didn’t and why. NATO air power has become very good at one thing. It should think on what UKR’s Air Generals might teach them. 10/11
- But in the meantime UKR’s ability to prosecute the war successfully relies on it being able to use the air when and how it wants. We need to do listen to them telling us what they now need, and make sure they have plenty of it in order to prevail. 11/11
This is one very patriotic Ukrainian millionaire! (hat tip to Steeplejack for emailing it to me)
Ukrainian millionaire asks Ukrainian military to bomb his mansion after he saw Russian troops inside on security cameras. So they did. pic.twitter.com/R9qL9Kdg5T
— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) April 19, 2022
Someone keeps lighting Russian military research facilities on fire!
Corruption and irresponsibility in russia has dealt another insidious blow to its war efforts. In Tver, a research institute that develops russia’s Iskander missiles and systems for SU-27 and TU-160 bombers, which have been destroying peaceful Ukrainian cities, has burned down.
— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 21, 2022
In Russia, the Dmitrievsky chemical plant in the city of Kineshma is on fire.
It is the largest Russian manufacturer of chemical solvents. Kineshma is located 950 km from the Ukrainian border. pic.twitter.com/6K4QM7p18q
— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) April 21, 2022
In russia, the research institute of the aerospace forces of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation completely burned down. Iskander, S-400 missile systems, stealth systems for Su-27 and Tu-160 aircraft were designed and developed here. pic.twitter.com/VEgnGoUhx3
— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) April 21, 2022
Ain’t that a shame!
Obligatory:
Most likely these fires were started by domestic Russian opposition to the reinvasion of Ukraine. But if it increases Putin’s paranoia to worry that he might both have a domestic resistance that’s gone operational and begun a campaign of sabotage and that it could also be Ukrainian intelligence, that’s value added.
There will be no Easter ceasefire this weekend:
Russia’s representative claimed the truce would afford “Kyiv nationalists and radicals a respite so that they can regroup.”
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 21, 2022
Which has prompted the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church to issue this warning:
⚡️ Head of Ukrainian Orthodox Church asks to refrain from Easter services in Ukraine’s war zones.
Metropolitan Epiphanius says that although they have asked Russia “to stop shelling” on April 24, the Orthodox Easter, he does not believe Russia would follow the ceasefire.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 20, 2022
I think that’s enough for tonight, so we’ll end with this very good kitty!
This is Phoenix from Kyiv region. He was severely injured during russia’s aggression. The cat is a symbol of Ukraine’s steadfastness and resilience.
Photo by Volodymyr Kryzhanivsky pic.twitter.com/7fyPI56jXw— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 21, 2022
I’m pretty sure that first picture isn’t to scale!
One final unrelated note, if you’ve not seen it mentioned, Norm Ornstein’s dog Henry showed back up at the Ornstein home around 4 AM local time in DC this morning. So they are all relieved. I appreciate all of our DC readers, commenters, and lurkers who kept eyes out and the rest of you for keeping good thoughts.
Open thread!
The Resumption of History: Part 4
Mike in NC
Adam, these updates are invaluable. Thank you.
debbie
I love that tweet up top: “Interpreting it for you guys from Putin’s into human language”!
debbie
Thanks for the hopeful news about inside sabotage, Adam.
Roger Moore
Russia had better watch out now that Ukraine has started to deploy giant military cats.
Elizabelle
Henry Ornstein (runaway doggo) is back! Fabulous news. Glad that one had a happy ending.
Martin
We need a ballistic or UAV supply system that can deliver food/water/medicine/ammo. Would have been useful after Katrina as well. Give it a set of GPS coordinates, load it up and have it deliver within 50m of a target.
MagdaInBlack
Has Putin had a stroke? Something not right about the way he is sitting.
Omnes Omnibus
@Elizabelle: He came back on his own. Obviously, he had things to do, and, when he finished, he came home.
Jager
@MagdaInBlack:
His head looks even bigger than usual. Hope his Mistress and their kids are happy in Switzerland.
Damien
Adam, like everyone else here I am forever in your debt for these updates. I wanted to ask your opinion on a larger question that I had regarding Putin’s fellow travelers in the US: do you think that his apparent weakness and failures in Ukraine will have any impact on their fawning love for dictators in general and Putin in particular?
I would be very pleased if this absolute fiasco dealt some kind of blow to the cause of international authoritarianism, and would be curious to know your thoughts.
terry chay
New news about a classified drone called Phoenix Ghost being supplied to Ukrainians: https://youtu.be/slf-rgB0DN4
There was a correction/more information than in the video
From this we can conclude that one or more of the following must be true relative to the Switchblade
Roger Moore
@Martin:
There are some obvious problems with a ballistic logistic system. The two most obvious are cost and the risk of the other side thinking they’re a missile launch.
Roger Moore
@Damien:
They will continue to fawn over him as long as they think he will remain their sugar daddy. They will continue to fawn over dictators in general until the heat death of the universe.
Mallard Filmore
One of the items in a Daily Kos post:
Inside here: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/4/21/2093248/-Is-Putin-s-Evil-Empire-Unraveling
Gin & Tonic
The contrast between Patriarch Epiphanius and Patriarch Kirill could not be starker.
Roger Moore
@terry chay:
The speculation I heard about the Phoenix Ghost is that it’s designed for anti-artillery use. It would have a longer range so it could get to artillery that’s stationed well behind the lines but wouldn’t necessarily need as heavy a warhead as something designed to take out tanks. Anything that could mess with the Russian artillery would be incredibly useful to Ukraine, since artillery is one area where Russia has a clear advantage. Take away their artillery advantage and they’re in deep trouble.
CaseyL
This is a heartening update, Adam. It was wonderful to read in more detail about your background the other night; now I understand a bit more how you’re able to condense a whole lot of information into a coherent, accurate synthesis.
And I am so happy Henry turned up! Bet the Ornsteins put a remote-feed camera on his collar from now on!
terry chay
Another thing to note is that apparently when you combine the howitzers delivered + to be delivered it’s enough to outfit 3 battalions. I found it interesting that the number of howitzers in the latest and the number of vehicles is the same. I wonder if it means that they gave them the howitzers and the vehicle they would need to tow them.
Note that since these are Western/NATO equipment and not Soviet, they use different ammo and part of the send is (and will continue to be) enough ammo for them.
I assume that this also means that Ukraine has enough counter-battery radar or that the U.S. is supplying what they do need but didn’t bother mentioning it (the other possibility is that they don’t need to do counterbattery because these plan to be directed by drones or some such).
japa21
@Gin & Tonic: Well, one’s a Christian and one isn’t.
Omnes Omnibus
@Roger Moore: You also don’t need to hit the guns. Destroying ammo works.
Adam L Silverman
@Damien: No, they’ll just transfer their devotion to a different one. They’ll go even more in for Orban.
Steve in the ATL
This is my new go-to response when my kids ask why they haven’t heard back from me on something. Thanks, Adam!
zhena gogolia
@MagdaInBlack: Yeah, my God, he’s looking like late-period Yeltsin.
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
We should have listened to Pussy Riot from the start.
zhena gogolia
@Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg: Meaning?
Or do you mean that Bogomater’ should have listened to them?
terry chay
@Martin: Unlike authoritarian regimes like Russia, the U.S. military is not obsessed with only sexy things like combat airplanes, ships and tanks. A lot of people rise in the ranks because they see the whole picture, including (and sometimes more importantly) logistics.
This leads me to believe that if this is feasible we’ve been spending no small amount of resources developing it. Perhaps the lack of a solution here (unless it is highly classified) means that there’s no such feasible thing yet.
japa21
I usually don’t read these until the morning after so thank you Adam for an earlier posting.
Concerning Mariupol, some people thought Putin’s decision was meant to show further cruelty. I looked at it much the same as the post indicated. His troops are exhausted and greatly reduced in fighting power. He can’t afford to lose any more. I just hope that they did stockpile a lot of food and military supplies to hang in there longer.
And, in actuality, other than PR purposes, taking full control now really does nothing for Russia.
Adam, in addition to thanking you for the earlier posting, I just want to join everybody else in thanking you for doing these daily posts. Specially, I want to thank you for taking the time, either in the same post or in a later one, to answer specific questions to the best of your ability.
Way back in the beginning of all this I asked a question to which your reply was ,”That is the correct question to ask” or words to that effect. The question was, what is the point or the line that, once crossed, makes the risk of global escalation and possible use of nukes acceptable?
I will be honest, there have been many times that I have thought that line was crossed. Not that I would suggest, as a couple posters have, first strike to take out Putin. There may be an argument to make for that scenario, but it is a pretty lousy one.
But I have asked before, and I will ask again, other than a piece of paper, what makes Latvia worth the risk but Ukraine isn’t? And that is not to say Latvia isn’t worth it. What about Finland? I don’t know the answer, nor do I have any sense as to what would be an appropriate course of action to keep the risk low but still do what is necessary to see Ukraine victorious.
Omnes Omnibus
@zhena gogolia: This warning might fit.
Spanky
@MagdaInBlack: His right hand and foot were fidgety, his left hand and foot were absolutely still through the whole clip.
Chetan Murthy
@terry chay:
I could be mistaken, but I thought counterbattery radars were mentioned as being included in the previous $800m round (the one that included the 18 howitzers).
terry chay
@Roger Moore: That makes a lot of sense.
la caterina
Thank you Adam. Your nightly posts do a great deal to help me keep my anxiety in check. This war still an unspeakable tragedy and I still fear its escalation, but your comprehensive updates keep me (and, I imagine, many others) from endless doom scrolling! So glad to hear that Henry was found too!
Patricia Kayden
When do you believe the sanctions will kick in and result in the tanking of the Russian economy? Russia must be brought to heel and Putin must face a war crime tribunal.
Omnes Omnibus
@terry chay:
Probably one of the best preparations for high command is time as a Bn XO and staff time as a G-4/S-4. As you said, not sexy, but good for combat arms officers to know how the maintenance, supply, etc., bits work. Knowing what can and cannot be done in those areas can definitely affect how you plan your combined arms operations and whether or not those plans work.
Ishiyama
@Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg: “We” did. (Some of us, without influence.)
Damien
@Adam L Silverman: Well that is a depressingly gross answer, as accurate as it might be. Can’t these people just go power bottom for a leather daddy and get it out of their system already?
Ishiyama
@zhena gogolia: What is Putin doing with his right hand gripping the corner of the table? And his twitchy thumb sort of makes me think Captain Queeg.
Redshift
Thanks, Adam, I particularly appreciate the interpretation of the on-camera announcement from Putin about Mariupol.
I heard from one of my loved ones in Ukraine again today. They’ve been fortunate to be in a place that apparently isn’t important enough to bomb, and now shops and banks are open again. So that’s reassuring, though of course they won’t be safe until Putin is defeated.
J R in WV
Off Topic, my Wife had a neurosurgeon work on her cervical spine today, was worse than Dr Christiano thought from the MRI, but she was able to successfully remove the disk interfering with her spinal cord. Not sure how much or if any improvement will come, but further deterioration is probably halted. Wife should come home from the hospital tomorrow.
Thanks to all the Jackals for their thoughts over the past couple of months.
Sorry to interrupt the daily Ukraine update, Adam. Thanks for keeping up this record breaking post!
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
@zhena gogolia:
They were sounding an alarm about the combined authoritarian impulses and totalitarian inclination of the state as linked to the church. It was clumsy and all too performative, but they had a point that got lost in the shuffle.
That said, I didn’t approve of the desecration tactics at the time, and they still bug me on a level that’s difficult to put to words. I’m culturally very Orthodox (despite being nondogmatic) and prefer respect for contemplation and worship. Nonetheless, their actions didn’t call for the extent of the penalty they received – and maybe my own confusion is a natural byproduct of their protest. It’s my honest take.
Frankly, I want to attend the Great Lamentation tomorrow and wouldn’t mind a round of confession before attending Pascha despite my intellectual inclinations regarding the Church, despite all.
Gin & Tonic
@J R in WV: Hoping for a swift and successful recovery.
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
@J R in WV:
Full bore laminectomy? My sympathies – those procedures are tough.
Philbert
Yeah Putin looks pretty weird, be it stress or medical.
Also reports of a Sukoi downed in UKR yielded its targeting radar which was forwarded to the UK and then to USAF to analyze their high level tech. Yes!
Steve in the ATL
@Omnes Omnibus: that certainly answered many questions I had about life in general!
PJ
@J R in WV: Good luck with her recovery!
Steve in the ATL
@Damien:
That sounds like HR’s answer for everything….
Dangerman
I’m in SoCal tonight; born and raised here, so I’ve seen things…
….but, holy shit, a train with more tanks and APVs then I could count (while driving) was going through tonight. I found one end; I didn’t find the other one after a couple of miles of heavy metal. It was parked so no idea if it was east or westbound. Where did it come from and where was it going?
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
@Omnes Omnibus:
I’m wondering about the quality of training and education at their equivalent of Command and General Staff schools. It looks to me as an outsider that the entire focus is on “smash and grab”, as opposed to general professional development that our training regimes have as their focus.
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
@Philbert:
Maybe some form of stress related Bell’s Palsy or something similar?
Captain C
@Mallard Filmore: Collaborationist Chechens vs. Russian conscripts past their breaking point would definitely be a happy* problem for the invaders to have. I wonder if the Chechens aren’t now mostly being used as blocking units; I’m sure they’d be happy in that role.
*not for them, of course
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
@Dangerman:
The French Air Force was running a lot of low level training sorties from North of Paris to Le Havre/Caen and Normandy last week. Like daily, from mid-morning through the afternoon, running at about 2000 feet. It was noticeable.
LivinginExile
What are the chances Putin is using the survivors at Mariupol to bait a trap for any rescue attempt?
Captain C
With regards to the fire at the aerospace research institute, I haven’t heard any casualty figures, but given the already dire state of Russian industry plus the recent brain drain, I would think that any dead or incapacitated researchers and engineers would be virtually irreplaceable at this point, not unlike the Japanese carrier pilots after Midway and especially after the Great Marianas Turkey Shoot.
CaseyL
@J R in WV: Thank you for the update! Hopefully your wife will be in less pain, now that the disk isn’t digging into the spine…?
trollhattan
IIUC from previous roundups the US 155mm howitzers use standard NATO rounds so can more easily be resupplied? A good thing, I’m guessing. (Cripes, the country will be preplowed once farmers finally get back to their fields.)
At the other end of the scale are UK quadcopter drones that drop modified RPG rounds onto tanks and other vehicles. Talk about asymmetrical warfare, this is kit you and I can buy at a hobby store. Okay, maybe not the RPG rounds.
Thanks as always, Adam. Admit I don’t understand how those folks in Mariupol hang on, much less how Ukraine can break through to relieve them. Never give up hope.
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
@LivinginExile:
Or locking them in for a bullseye with a 5KT to 10KT tactical strike? Testing the waters, so to speak?
debbie
@Ishiyama:
His right foot never stopped twitching either.
Dangerman
@Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg: Exactly. They could been discreet in moving things around but this was … blatant … and noticeably so.
trollhattan
@J R in WV:
Fingers and toes crossed she gets blessed relief from the procedure. That kind of pain is simply unbearable.
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
@trollhattan:
Could be a complete realignment of the idea of close air support on a theater level of combat, and eliminate the danger posed to manned airframes by doing it remotely with drones.
debbie
@J R in WV:
Great news!
kalakal
@J R in WV: here’s hoping for a successful outcome
HRA
@J R in WV: Wishing the best recovery from the surgery for your wife.
Redshift
@J R in WV: Good news is welcome in any thread. Here’s hoping for a speedy recovery.
Mallard Filmore
@Dangerman:
The YouTube channel “Virtual Railfan” has daily compilations of recent activity, and there have been trains like this for many months. I don’t watch often enough to know if the frequency has gone up, but trains like that have not been rare for at least 6 months.
Steve in the ATL
@trollhattan:
That’s because you live in a blue state. You can get them at Walmart round these parts!
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
@Steve in the ATL:
Wondering about the goulash MREs….
Wag
@MagdaInBlack: After reading your comment I went back and watched the clip. I have a couple of observations. I agree that his left arm and leg are decidedly less mobile that the right leg. Perhaps hemiplegia?
I was also struck by how his right hand seemed to be gripping the edge of the table tightly in a supinated (palm up) grip. If someone is relaxed, the hand is held pronated (palm down). With his tight grip on the table I had the sense that he was trying to keep his body from listing to the left.
Finally, his head was held rigidly looking straight ahead. We never see any aspect of the left side of his face. Does he have a facial droop from a stroke?
Steve in the ATL
@Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg: every ethnicity in the world is represented on Buford Highway. May be harder to find in Kentucky….
Aziz, light!
It’s a modern research facility, which surely had a fire alarm system and safety officers who ran fire evacuation drills. I expect that everyone got out safely unless there was, say, an explosion triggered by sabotage.
Reverse tool order
@J R in WV:
Years ago, a hemilaminectomy (sp?) was applicable for my wife. She got instant & total relief ever since. Note the conditional.
Hoping for the same for you. My understanding is not all cases are that clear-cut. (Sorry, not intended as a pun.)
Redshift
@japa21:
What I’m hoping we’re seeing (at least in part) with the delivery of more heavy weapons is a recognition that Putin and his foreign minister keep saying certain actions by the West are or would be considered acts of war against Russia, but not acting like it. So the red line is judged to be not so near.
But while I appreciate the “piece of paper” rhetoric from Zelenskyy, and as a friend of Ukraine I’m glad it has been effective, I don’t think it’s a real argument. The fact is that NATO is a mutual defense pact, not a worldwide force for protecting deserving countries from dictators. So like it or not, the question isn’t “why Latvia and not Ukraine,” it’s “why not Ukraine and Syria and…” A case has to be made for why it’s in the interest of countries to help, and “because they deserve it” isn’t enough, because they all do.
Probably the most compelling argument for intervening in Ukraine is to put an end to Putin being able to keep doing this shit (in a situation that’s not a messy civil war), and to eliminate a that to our allies. That’s good, in my mind, because as much as I want intervention in Ukraine, without that argument, we might be left with “we do this for people who are European enough.”
Lyrebird
I don’t think of the DoD trolling much, but look at this:
(h/t DKos commenter)
And the Kyiv Independent tweeted out the same thing, that the US will send 121 such systems…
Not trying to be hard on Mr. Mehta, but isn’t 121 the Mosckva’s number?
Would we troll like that?
Ohio Mom
@MagdaInBlack: Elsewhere in blogtopia, I’ve seen speculation that Putin has Parkinson’s and that he is holding the table to keep his hand from trembling, even as his leg jerks around.
Parkinson’s can bring with it all sorts of mental health issues, including dementia, though I don’t know the usual trajectory of symptoms.
We really need a neurologist’s opinion, if one would venture a guess about someone who is not their patient and so far away. Without that, we can all still agree he is not well.
Calouste
@Aziz, light!:
The Guardian reports 7 dead and 25 injured https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/22/die-in-fire-at-russia-defence-institute?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
So I’d assume an explosion rather than a fire. And the other fire, well, once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.
Ishiyama
@Ohio Mom: one hand and leg stay still, the other ones do not. It can’t be voluntary, whatever the cause.
Calouste
@Ohio Mom: I watched the video, and you can definitely see his right thumb twitch a couple of times. The other interesting thing is that he is actually quite close to someone else, and not sitting at the other end of a 30 foot table as he mostly has done recently.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: Martin, I started off thinking “but that’s not possible” b/c
And then I thought: what if you drop the packages out of a plane, with a parachute, but a quadcopter attached to the top of the package (still below the ‘chute) to provide terminal guidance? Then when it hits dirt, the recipient takes off the chute, detaches the package, and the copter takes off to return to home base.
And b/c it’s got a copter for guidance, you could drop ’em at night — the copter could use GPS to guide it in. Or maybe home in on a laser designater. Maybe infrared, and intermittent so harder for the enemy to zero in on.
I started off thinking “can’t work” and now, I wonder whether we have something like this already!
Rocks
@Ohio Mom: Bill Frist may be available.
Adam L Silverman
@Mallard Filmore: Does anyone actually know who the Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer actually is? Do we even know if he’s in Ukraine? Have you seen anyone who is not pseudonymous, in Ukraine, and who is a credible source report this? No, no, and no!
Priest
If we can do this… https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(spacecraft)
Carlo Graziani
@Calouste: There is another possibility. We might not find out about it for years. Or at all. Or it could be just wrong.
But this is exactly the sort of warfare that the NSA has invested countless billions of dollars in, over decades, and, in terms of manpower and capability is probably far, far ahead of the Russians and the Chinese. And these are exactly the sorts of political conditions in which you might expect them to get the green light to go do some—deniable—damage.
Like I said, it would be impossible to know. The US government didn’t release information about ENIGMA until 1973. So we might not find out until the 2050’s.
Adam L Silverman
@CaseyL: Thank you for the kind words, you are most welcome. And the Henry news is the best news.
Adam L Silverman
@terry chay: It is. If you look at the tweet with the reporting in the post up top it explicitly states the number of vehicles is equal to the number of howitzers for that reason.
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: Nothing makes one more worth it than the other except for the piece of paper.
And thank you for the kind words. You are quite welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@la caterina: You are most welcome. Thank you for the kind words.
Raoul Paste
No outcome is certain, but this reads more hopeful than some of the previous daily updates
How can you not like the phrase “bespoke drones”?
Adam L Silverman
@Patricia Kayden: I do not believe they will have any significant effect in the short term. I also believe that we will begin to see more and more pressure building by the usual suspects to get around them or end them because they’re interfering in the ability to make profits. I have something for tomorrow night’s update on this.
George
What are the chances that the twitchy Vova video is staged? The twitching seemed too obvious–Vova put his right hand where everyone could see it.
He seems too vain to have a video posted that shows him as being weak, unless he wanted to convey the false notion that he is weak. The closeness of the two men also was in contrast to photos of Putin a few weeks ago at one end of a long table, while his generals sat a great distance away.
Anyone have any thoughts on the matter?
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
square chutes can be guided, ( steered), allow travel upwind. Stunt chutes can reach incredible ( for a parachute) speeds and stunts.
So a well wrapped pallet, a square chute, a gps guided computer hooked up to actuators, ( to work the shrouds) and you could drop “cargo” with in a few feet of “x marks the spot”.
There have been trials of such systems.
The problem comes from having a ramp equipped cargo plane in enemy airspace.
I suppose you could use a propelled parapent to drop much further out and fly the cargo in, but the cargo plane would still be in S300-S400 range and it would probably max out at 500lbs per chute.
Adam L Silverman
@Redshift: Excellent news. Keeping good thoughts for them!
sdhays
@LivinginExile: The fact that the Russians seem to be chatting amongst themselves over unencrypted channels (which is a big reason why they’ve lost so many generals) makes it hard for me to believe that they could pull that off without Ukrainian intelligence pretty much knowing immediately.
I mean, sure they’ll be prepared to counter or trap a rescue attempt, but I doubt Ukraine will be surprised by it.
Adam L Silverman
@J R in WV: Good news. Keeping good thoughts!
Chetan Murthy
@Jay:
I learn something new every day!
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
They aren’t UA, TDG,…….
They might be filling some non-Combat Volunteer role,
I have friends in the UA and the Canadian Ukrainian TDG. We are in contact at best, every two weeks, as they rotate into the rear rest areas, where they can safely make contact without betraying their positions to the RU.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Exactly my point.
J R in WV
@trollhattan:
She wasn’t in any pain, but had stroke like symptoms in arm and leg movements, and some minor memory and speech issues…
The neurosurgeon was confident the restriction was dealt with, but unsure if we should expect much improvement given how nervous system tissues sometimes don’t recover much. PT may help in the future, balance was an issue and may improve too.
Huge relief though to be past the operation through the front of her neck!
Chetan Murthy
@J R in WV: “cervical spine” … “front of her neck”. I didn’t connect these two until you made it plain. Oh lordy. So glad for your wife that she’s thru that part. Oh lordy.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: When Putin calls a halt to the operation to reduce Azovstal complex, he is not just implying that the 12 BTGs there are in no shape to continue combat operations, but that the DNR/LNR/Chechen cannon fodders there are also no longer in shape to continue combat operations.
J R in WV
@J R in WV:
She had anterior cervical discectomy and fusion… the disc was into the spinal cord, “a real mess, but I got it cleaned up” neurosurgeon told me. It took a little longer than expected, no surprise there.
Calouste
@George: What’s the benefit for Putin in conveying the false notion that he is weak? The professionals, both foreign and domestic, are not going to make any decisions based on one video when they probably have better information anyway, the foreign amateurs (i.e. us) are irrelevant, and it definitely won’t look good to the average Russian TV viewer.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: You are most likely correct.
patrick II
@Calouste:
I agree that I don’t think Putin was trying to pretend. I also think the cameraman noticed the shaking leg and moved the camera and took it out of the frame.
I wonder how ill Putin is and if Ukraine is intended to be his attempt to put himself into the Russian history books before he goes.
kalakal
@George: No way is it faked. Authoritarian leaders depend on projecting an image of macho toughness and infallibility. Putins spent years crafting a tough guy, manliest of men image, shirtless posing on horseback, hunting gear & rifles etc. In the middle of a war he’d posing juggling tigers if he could, not squatting at a desk with bloated features and muscle tremors
Kent
My guess is that Putin has so isolated himself that he doesn’t have staff who are confident enough to actually tell him how he looks at this point. Who the hell wants to tell the boss he looks weak and pathetic on worldwide video?
Nettoyeur
@Jager: I read the Swiss were trying to expel them. Not sure what happened.
@Spanky:
Nettoyeur
@Jager: I read the Swiss were trying to expel them. Not sure what happened.
@Spanky:
Nettoyeur
@Ishiyama:
I watched a Ukrainian news clip on Youtube about the Putin-Shoygu meeting. (NB–I speak Russian, but am just a beginner at Ukrainian—and no Anya, they are related but far from the same language). There was discussion of his hands gripping and the leg, and a comment “Parkinson’s?” Getting kind of like the film Downfall…
Ruckus ??
@Aziz, light!:
It’s a modern research facility – in Russia. I wouldn’t count on there being a lot of safety like is demanded here. Sure it may have it but there is the bit that those things cost extra, which means someone doesn’t make as much. Could be wrong of course, but I find it quite possible.
Ruckus ??
@Ohio Mom:
Parkinson’s has a symptom curve, usually of a number of years. But yes once you are into it far enough it gets to dementia and worse. A key think is the tremor is a resting tremor. Now I know this because I’ve been told on more than one occasion, by neurologists that I likely have Parkinson’s. Except I finally saw one who showed me why I don’t have it. But if his hand is resting palm up on a table and has a tremor then Parkinson’s would seem, from my 5 yrs of experience dealing with yes, no, maybe, that he could have it. And it doesn’t have to be both hands.
And no I’m not a neurologist, I just have one as my main doctor.
oldster
Okay, so the 121 drones featured an interesting number.
But did you also notice the 144,000 artillery shells that Biden promised?
That’s right: 11 squared, and 12 squared.
Hasn’t there been some chatter that Putin has a bunch of superstitious phobias related to special dates? Maybe he has a broader superstition about numbers. And maybe US intelligence is trolling him.
(Though it’s probably all random noise.)
oldster
From the Stringer thread:
“What they seem to have done is used intelligence to selectively attack Russian air raids.”
I wonder if “raids” there is a typo for “bases” or something else?
Seems like the response to a raid, even if you know its coming, would normally be described as a defense rather than an attack.
oldster
(darn — should have postponed my numerology comment so it could be comment #121.)
DirkReinecke
Why is he holding onto the table so strongly? He is talking to a member of the Russian military, he is afraid his table is going to get stolen. It is probably what happened to the large one.
MagdaInBlack
@Wag: Yes, all of those things.
wetzel
@J R in WV: Prayers for a healthy recovery for your wife from that surgery. It sounds like she has been through a great deal. I hope she will be feeling better soon.
lowtechcyclist
This is bullshit. Later this year, Ukraine will be in a position to push Russia out of eastern Ukraine, IF they have the weaponry. There’s no reason we can’t start training them in the use of our tanks NOW, so they’ll be able to use them LATER this year.
Ditto the F-15s. Plan ahead, dammit!
Maybe the Ukrainians will be able to reclaim their territory with Soviet-era tanks and planes. But it would be incredibly stupid and risky for us to count on their being able to do so. We don’t want this to turn into a military stalemate for months, and THEN our bright military minds saying in September, “whoa, maybe we should teach Ukrainians how to use our tanks and jets, so they can use them against the Russians in 2023” while Russians conduct more massacres, more mass deportations, more tortures and rapes, in the parts of Ukraine that they control.
lowtechcyclist
@DirkReinecke:
Because he’s really sick?
Seriously, seeing that clip of Putin, if he were a relative of mine, I’d be really worried for him. Instead, of course, I’m just hoping that he’s really in as bad a shape as he looks. Maybe he’ll drop dead on May 9th. We can hope!
evodevo
@Redshift: Well, Pootie Poot got away with devastating Syria and decimating Chechnya, with almost no interference from the outside world, and thought his sabotage of American political life and the chaos of Brexit was thorough enough that he could get away with Ukraine…if Trumpy had been re-elected, he would have…he miscalculated
zhena gogolia
@George: Wow, that is some serious Kremlinology you’re doing there.
Who knows? It’s like all those diagnoses of TFG we used to get. But he does look bad.
debbie
@oldster:
The 144,000 artillery shells equal 1,000 gross artillery shells. No need for conspiracy theories here.
ETA: LOL, I’m comment #121!
David Anderson
@oldster: I can totally buy 121 as a troll.
However 144,000 shells is also 2000 shells per tube. That is an expectation that those tubes will be used a lot. Maybe a bit less if other 155mm system providers are sending smaller shell loads, we don’t know. The easy explanation is the US thinks the UA will need a lot of shells.
oldster
@debbie:
That makes sense, provided that they sell shells by the gross?
At the general store when I was a kid, they sold them in packs of five, with a free illumination round with every four packs of five.
David — I noticed that they limited the number of howitzers to just half of 12 squared in order to make it come out right. Just coincidence, you say?
Geminid
@oldster:
I have a hunch that this shipment of artillery shells could be hot topic in some churches this coming Sunday.
oldster
@Geminid:
Oh, lord. I had not remembered that connection. The numerology has not reached peak crackpot until Revelations is involved.
Geminid
@oldster: And they say that tomorrow’s Trump rally at the Delaware County (Ohio) Fairgrounds will begin the Crapture.
Catatonia
Henry had to make a visit to a certain chemical facility and MoD branch in Russia.
And let me add to the chorus: Adam, thank you so much for these updates. They are must reads for me.
Uncle Cosmo
@J R in WV: Fellow I know in his 30s had serious cervical disc degeneration. Excellent surgeon at the U of MD went in through the front of the neck, removed the damaged goods & replaced them with prosthetics. I’ve lost touch with him but at last report he was doing splendidly. Hoping Ms J R’s surgeon and surgery will prove as successful.
Uncle Cosmo
When the Faithfool are lifted bodily into the air…
…and dumped face down into the nearest open septic tank.
(Hey, a guy can dream!)
Uncle Cosmo
@LivinginExile: I asked the same question in one of these threads a couple of days ago. Good on ya for getting a few responses – I got crickets.
Jay
@oldster:
I would suggest that the Ukrainians are “watching” Russian Airforce tactics and vectoring fighters accordingly. A common tactic when your airbases are “safe” is to launch the bombers first, as they are slower, with fighters following on, both joining up, shortly before reaching the target. This provides maximum air cover for the bombers over the target from the fighters.
If the opponents fighters are vectored in on the bombers shortly before their “top cover” arrives, the bombers have to dump loads and run, as they are sitting ducks for the incoming fighters. Their “top cover” then has to decide if they want to engage the incoming fighters, or protect their bombers back to a safe airspace.
Ranges these days are 100/150km, so with the right tactics, on the part of the defender, ( eg. Nape of the earth approach then a pop up to altitude so that neither the escort or the bombers get any warning of incoming until seconds before and all decisions have to be made in a few seconds), one can cause the enemy strike to fail with out ever firing a missile.
If the bombers and top cover are alerted that there are fighters coming in, top cover can increase speed to match, and escort to the target. If on the other hand the first sign the bombers get that there are fighters coming in, is getting “painted” with a target radar, they have about 15 seconds to decide if they want to deal with incoming AAM’s, or dump load and run home, hoping you are fast enough.