(Image found here, the artist is NEIVENMADE)
This morning Russian Major General Rustam Minnekaev decided to let everyone in on Russia’s theater strategic objectives for the Donbas campaign:
“One of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine. This will provide a land corridor to the Crimea, as well as influence the vital objects of the Ukrainian economy,” Minnekaev said Friday at a meeting with the Union of Defense Industries, as reported by the Russian state-owned Interfax. “Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.” Transnistria is a separatist region of Moldova that has so far not been officially involved in the war despite hosting a Russian military base since the 1990s.
There are two things to take away from this. The first and most obvious is that we now know what the objective for the Donbas campaign is. Scarf up all of the Donbas and southern Ukraine in order to establish a land bridge and then connect through the breakaway region of Transnistria to Moldova. I’m pretty sure the second takeaway is that based on how poorly Russia has performed so far, as well as the state of their available land forces and equipment, that they cannot achieve this objective. This doesn’t mean they won’t try to do so. And it certainly does not mean that they won’t cause a lot of death and destruction in failing to achieve their goals.
Here’s the video of tonight’s address by President Zelenskyy. It has the usual English subtitles. He does address Minnekaev’s statement. Transcript, with my emphases, after the jump.
Ukrainians!
Our defenders!
The 58th day of our defense is coming to an end. It ends on Good Friday, one of the most sorrowful days of the year for Christians. The day when death seems to have won. But… We hope for a resurrection. We believe in the victory of life over death. And we pray that death loses.
This year, during the full-scale war, Russia’s war against our state, these words have a special meaning for us.
Russia brought death to Ukraine. After eight years of brutal war in Donbas, Russia wanted to destroy our state completely. Literally deprive Ukrainians of the right to life. But no matter how fierce the battles are, there is no chance for death to defeat life. Everyone knows that. Every Christian knows that. This is a basic element of our culture.
Perhaps this does not exist in modern Russian culture anymore. Because in order to do everything they did to Ukrainians in our cities… you have to kill a human inside you. Because a human of any faith simply cannot do that.
But for our culture, it all matters. And it will matter. And life will surely defeat death.
I am grateful to our British friends for the important symbolic decision announced today to return the embassy to Kyiv. The United Kingdom became the twenty-first country to return a diplomatic mission to our capital. And this shows that we are not the only ones who believe in the victory of life over death.
Today, with reference to the Russian military, the news was spread that their task now is allegedly to establish control over the south of Ukraine and reach the Moldovan border. And allegedly there, in Moldova, the rights of Russian-speakers are violated.
Although, to be honest, the territory in which Russia should take care of the rights of Russian-speakers is Russia itself. Where there is no freedom of speech, no freedom of choice. Where there is simply no right to dissent. Where poverty thrives and where human life is worthless. To the extent that they come to us, go to war to steal at least something that resembles a normal life.
You know they used to talk about their biggest dream: to see Paris and die. And their behavior is now just shocking. Because their dream now is to steal the toilet and die.
Well, this only confirms what I have said many times: the Russian invasion of Ukraine was intended only as a beginning, then they want to capture other countries.
Of course, we will defend ourselves as long as necessary to break this ambition of the Russian Federation. But all nations that, like us, believe in the victory of life over death must fight with us. They have to help us, because we are the first on this path. And who is next?
If anyone who can become next wants to stay neutral today so as not to lose anything, this is the riskiest bet. Because you will lose everything.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to deter attacks by Russian invaders in the east and south of our country. The Izyum direction, Donbas, Pryazovia, Mariupol, Kherson region are the places where the fate of this war and the future of our state is being decided.
In Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, in the Donetsk region in general, in Popasna and in the Luhansk region in general, in Kharkiv, in the surrounding areas, the occupiers are trying to achieve a primitive goal – to kill as much as possible and destroy everything they see.
And I am grateful to each of our defenders who are bravely holding on, teaching the Russian army the idea that Russia’s chances in this war may be less than Ukraine’s.
As every morning, as every day, as every evening, we have paid maximum attention today to provide our military with all the necessary weapons. This is the number one task for our state.
And I am grateful to all our partners who finally heard us. Who provide us with exactly what we asked for. Because we know for sure that with these weapons we will be able to save the lives of thousands of people. And we will be able to show the occupiers that the day when they will be forced to leave Ukraine is approaching.
The return to normal life in the territories liberated from the occupiers continues.
If at the beginning of this week demining took place in 70 settlements, today 184 settlements have been demined. Of course, much remains to be done. But the pace, I think, is pretty good.
Humanitarian headquarters are already operating in more than 500 de-occupied settlements. Almost 100 settlements are added daily, to which we return medical and educational services, the work of social protection bodies, financial institutions.
We are restoring transport connections at a fairly fast pace. Plus 96 settlements today, where the transport connection was returned. Plus 183 settlements where gas stations have resumed work. Plus 90 settlements where electricity was restored. We return water supply, gas supply, mobile connection.
The return of Ukraine to cities and communities means the return of life in the full sense of these words. I believe that such a return will take place in the south of our country and in the east of Ukraine. In all areas where degradation, destruction and death have been brought under the Russian flag.
But it depends on how united we all will be in countering the Russian invasion. I emphasize once again that everyone should oppose the occupation at every opportunity. Ignore the occupiers. Do not cooperate with them. Don’t help them. Neutralize collaborators.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are performing their tasks brilliantly. Intelligence, the National Guard, territorial defense, police, border guards – all of them work one hundred percent for the victory. But every citizen must also work for the victory – in what he does and where he is.
If you are abroad – support Ukraine. If you are engaged in ordinary economic activities, do your best for the benefit of Ukraine as much as possible. If you found yourself in a temporarily occupied territory – try to cause the occupiers as much trouble as possible. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are our foundation. But a fortress of our national unity must always stand on this foundation. Unity of all Ukrainians who fight for life and against death. Against the Russian invasion.
Traditionally, in the evening I signed a decree awarding our heroes. 48 defenders of Ukraine were awarded state awards. For courage in battles, for exemplary military service.
Eternal glory to all who defend the state!
Eternal memory to everyone who died for Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
I want to focus on two things from President Zelenskyy’s remarks this evening. The first is his Easter message to Orthodox Ukrainians. By now everyone pretty much is aware that Zelenskyy is Jewish. How observant he is or is not is neither something I know, nor does it really matter. What is important here is that when Jews wish their Christian friends a happy Easter they usually do not use this language:
The 58th day of our defense is coming to an end. It ends on Good Friday, one of the most sorrowful days of the year for Christians. The day when death seems to have won. But… We hope for a resurrection. We believe in the victory of life over death. And we pray that death loses.
This language, this use of strategic communication, is to clearly get the attention of the majority of Ukrainians who are Christian (a majority of that majority being Orthodox and the next largest chunk being Catholic/Eastern Rite and then a smaller group following the Latin Rite). This is him speaking to them in a language they understand and expect from officials making statements at this time of year. But these remarks are also used to set up something else. Specifically:
Russia brought death to Ukraine. After eight years of brutal war in Donbas, Russia wanted to destroy our state completely. Literally deprive Ukrainians of the right to life. But no matter how fierce the battles are, there is no chance for death to defeat life. Everyone knows that. Every Christian knows that. This is a basic element of our culture.
Perhaps this does not exist in modern Russian culture anymore. Because in order to do everything they did to Ukrainians in our cities… you have to kill a human inside you. Because a human of any faith simply cannot do that.
But for our culture, it all matters. And it will matter. And life will surely defeat death.
Putin and his pet patriarch Kirill have gone out of their way to make Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine into a Holy War in line with the mythology and alternative history that Putin has both bought into and promoted for the past twenty years. For Putin and Kirill, at least rhetorically, the Russian reinvasion of Ukraine is a sacred endeavor to both protect Russians and to reestablish the proper, Deity ordained scheme of things on earth: placing Ukraine and all other former Russian/Soviet territories back under the temporal and religious control of Moscow. What President Zelenskyy is doing with the first portion of his remarks tonight is to flip that script. To inspire the majority of Ukrainians who are Christians to recognize the sacred parallels in their defense of Ukraine against Russian reinvasion, aggression, and brutality in the Easter story. It is subtly and effectively done, especially when compared with the bellicosity of Putin and Kirill. It is an excellent example of senior leader strategic communication.
The second thing I want to call out, or call out further since I bolded and italicized it in the quote block above, is President Zelenskyy explicitly emphasizing that Putin’s plans and objectives, regardless of whether they are realistic or achievable, do not end with Ukraine. Ukraine is just the beginning; it is just the current theater of this war. Should Putin achieve his objective, then the war will shift to a new theater – Moldova – and once finished there another theater, most likely Romania and/or one of the Baltic states would be next. Then another and another. It doesn’t matter that these objectives are, as some guy named Dave Anderson would say, banana pants crazy. Those are the objectives. President Zelenskyy is not only making this explicit, again, but also making it clear to everyone inside and outside of Ukraine that unless the line is held in Ukraine, unless the Ukrainians are successful, Putin will eventually come for the next state and society on his list.
Here’s today’s operational update from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (emphasis mine):
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on April 22, 2022
The fifty-eighth day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues. A russian federation continues its full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine and launches missile and bomb strikes on military and civilian infrastructure.
In the Volyn and Polissya directions, russian enemy did not take active action. There is an increase in electronic reconnaissance and electronic warfare systems in the border areas of Gomel region with Ukraine. Units of the 48th separate battalion of electronic warfare of the Western Operational Command of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus have been set up in the districts of Klimovka and Dymamerky. In addition, the enemy conducted training of regular forces and air defence.
The threat of missile and air strikes on the objects of civil and military infrastructure of Ukraine from the territory of the republic of belarus remains.
In the Seversky direction, the federal security service and border service units of the russian federation continue to carry out enhanced protection of the Ukrainian-russian border in the Bryansk and Kursk regions. The regrouping of enemy troops continues.
In the Slobozhansky direction, russian occupiers continue to partially block the city of Kharkiv with units of the 6th General Arms Army, Baltic and Northern Fleets, and try to fire on units of our troops and critical infrastructure.
In the Izyum direction, russian enemy conducts air reconnaissance of the positions of our troops in order to determine possible directions of attack. To improve the tactical position of the units, russian enemy tried to carry out offensive operations in the directions of the settlements of Zavody and Dibrovne, but without success.
In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, fighting took place along the entire line of contact.
During the day, russian enemy carried out assault operations in the direction of the city of Slovyansk, established itself in the village of Lozove. In the areas of the Zelena Dolyna and Kreminna, russian enemy continues to consolidate its occupied positions, regroup and prepare for offensive operations.
russian enemy strengthened the grouping of troops by moving from the territory of the russian federation of individual units of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District. Unsuccessfully trying to gain a foothold in the village of Rubizhne.
In the area of Popasna, russian enemy carried out assault operations in the direction of the settlement of Novotoshkivske and deep into the settlement of Popasna, without success. Established in the central part of the village Stepne.
In the Avdiivka and Kurakhiv areas, russian occupiers tried to carry out assault operations, but without success.
In the Mariupol direction, russian enemy continued to launch air strikes on Mariupol and blockade our units in the Azovstal area.
In the Zaporizhzhya direction, russian occupiers carried out assault operations in the direction of the settlement of Zelene Pole, without success. The enemy strengthened the group by relocating units of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District. At the same time, the battalion tactical group of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army lost its combat capability and was withdrawn to the recovery area.
In the direction of Pivdennobuzhsky, near the settlement of Oleksandrivka, russian enemy is defending the occupied positions. Conducts air reconnaissance. It is possible to carry out assault operations in order to reach the administrative borders of Kherson oblast.
According to available information, the personnel of a separate group of russian troops in the so-called “transnistrian-moldavian republic” serve on a daily basis. At the same time, the possibility of using the territory of the unrecognized republic for aggression against Ukraine remains.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Let’s win together! Glory to Ukraine!
The major takeaways:
- Russia is going to continue to simply pound away on Ukraine using artillery and air strikes
- Russia is probing along a number of the lines of contact they want to attack once the Donbas campaign gets fully under way, but is having limited success
- Russia is still busy reducing Mariupol
- Russia is still trying to reform and reconstitute a number of BTGs and other units with only partial success
Here’s today’s assessment from the British Ministry of Defense:
And here’s the British MOD’s updated map for today:
As you can see the British GEOINT analysts and mappers are continuing to indicate the Russians are doing what they’ve been doing for the better part of ten days now.
I want to take a moment and look at a different map from Illlia Ponomarenko, The Kyiv Independent‘s military correspondent:
Here’s a very, very basic map that will help you understand the Battle of Donbas now.
The Red is the Russians, the blue is the Ukrainians.
As you can see, the enemy is trying to pinch off a Ukrainian salient with two major strikes from the north and the south. pic.twitter.com/IIgZOrLBwm— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) April 22, 2022
The Joint Force Operation’s salient between Izium and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is still a major problem. Right now the Russians are pressing in six different positions on this extended cul-de-sac like position the Ukrainians are in trying to encircle them. If the Russians do so, then they can reduce the Ukrainian Joint Force Operation. You’ll notice that compared to the last time we zoomed in on the Joint Force Operation’s position about two weeks ago, also with a map provided by Ponomarenko, the Ukrainians are now trying to hit the Russian forces advancing from Izium in the side, thereby breaking that line of attack. At the same time the Ukrainians are trying to block Russian forces coming up from Myrne and Andriivka in the south to prevent them from getting behind and encircling the JFO.
There was another Russian military research facility set on fire today:
The Russian Rocket and Spacecraft Scientific Center in Korolyov is on fire right now.
It’s the main analytical center of the Russian Space Agency (Russian NASA) Roskosmos.
2 strategic fires yesterday, 1 today.
Greeting from Ukraine? pic.twitter.com/h48L0rDbAH
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 22, 2022
And The Moscow Times, which I cannot seem to currently access so it may be down thanks to Russian cyberwarfare efforts, reported the following by tweet:
As many as five Russian military enlistment offices have been set on fire since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, independent Russian media reportedhttps://t.co/y27xNuTjPF
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) April 22, 2022
As I wrote last night, I suspect these arson attacks are a sabotage campaign being carried out by Russians opposed to the war, Putin, or both. Is it possible that Ukrainian intelligence has managed to get a bunch of covert operatives across the border and they’re carrying out what is now around eight arson attacks? Sure, it’s possible. I’m not sure, however, it’s more plausible than Russian opposition doing it. Ultimately, we may never find out. But right now I am sure that the idea that there is a domestic opposition, Ukrainian operatives, or the latter working with the former to undertake a sabotage campaign against Russian military targets is keeping Putin up at night.
Ain’t that a shame.
Mariupol:
"Hell is what's happening there."
Civilians who managed to escape Mariupol speak of the terror they experienced as Russia seeks control of southern Ukraine https://t.co/XDgCzXhcKP pic.twitter.com/TYLtXmSGIG
— Bloomberg Quicktake (@Quicktake) April 22, 2022
Safe humanitarian corridors are needed to get more hundred thousand people out of the ruined city, as well as civilians and the wounded who are for weeks without water and sunshine under Russian bombing in the dungeons of the AzovStal plant 2/3
— Oleksandra Matviichuk (@avalaina) April 22, 2022
Here’s a post from a military medic in Mariupol to his mother:
And here’s the translation courtesy of The Kyiv Independent‘s Anastasiia Lapatina:
“Pass these words to my mom – I saw so much pain, but I will never break”
Mykolaiv:
?? defender in Mykolaiv: ‘Please, tell (the world) that our land helps us a lot. We’ve had so many miracles at the frontline, the earth and weather literally protect us from death. But we need weapons, too’
— Iryna Matviyishyn (@IMatviyishyn) April 22, 2022
Here’s a couple of interesting pieces dealing with the difficulties of making the sanctions and economic measures targeting Russia effective in regard to Russian energy exports.
ARD demanded the German economy ministry and industry show them the data for their apocalyptic gas embargo warnings of mass unemployment and economic destruction.
The result: "No one could provide concrete figures." https://t.co/OYV8iSvWdK
— Zia Weise (@ZiaWeise) April 21, 2022
A recent study by the country's top economic institutes found that a gas import stop would cause job losses, but more in the realm of ~400,000, with unemployment rising from 5 to 6%. https://t.co/S9mkSyO37T
— Zia Weise (@ZiaWeise) April 22, 2022
Here’s another complication in shutting off Russian energy exports from The Wall Street Journal:
Russia ramped up oil shipments to key customers in recent weeks, defying its pariah status in world energy markets. One increasingly popular method for delivery: tankers marked “destination unknown.”
Oil exports from Russian ports bound for European Union member states, which historically have been the biggest buyers of Russian crude, have risen to an average of 1.6 million barrels a day so far in April, according to TankerTrackers.com. Exports had dropped to 1.3 million a day in March following the Ukraine invasion. Similar data from Kpler, another commodities data provider, showed flows rose to 1.3 million a day in April from 1 million in mid-March.
But an opaque market is forming to obscure the origin of that oil. Unlike before Russia invaded Ukraine, oil buyers are worried about the reputational risk of trading crude that is financing a government that Western leaders accuse of war crimes.
Oil from Russian ports is increasingly being shipped with its destination unknown. In April so far, over 11.1 million barrels were loaded into tankers without a planned route, more than to any country, according to TankerTrackers.com. That is up from almost none before the invasion.
One reason to obscure the origin of Russian oil is that countries desperately need the crude to keep economies going and prevent fuel prices from surging even further. But companies and oil middlemen want to trade it quietly, avoiding any blowback for facilitating transactions that in the end provide money for Moscow’s war machine.
The use of the destination unknown label is a sign that the oil is being taken to larger ships at sea and unloaded, analysts and traders said. Russian crude is then mixed with the ship’s cargo, blurring where it came from. This is an old practice that has enabled exports from sanctioned countries such as Iran and Venezuela.
New grades of refined products dubbed the Latvian blend and the Turkmenistani blend are also being offered in the market, according to traders, with the understanding that they contain substantial amounts of Russian oil, they said.
Oil sales for Russia are the lifeblood of the economy and government spending. The country has struggled to sell oil at the same volumes and prices as before the war, causing backups in its domestic oil industry.
Much, much more at the link!
The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) in the United Kingdom is out with a very interesting new analysis of Putin’s reinvasion of and war for Ukraine. Here’s the link to the pdf of the report. And here’s the introduction:
Operation Z: The Death Throes of an Imperial Delusion
WHEN RUSSIAN FORCES began to roll towards the Ukrainian border on the evening of Defender of the Fatherland Day, 23 February, Moscow was anticipating the capture of Kyiv within three days. Many outside observers – including the authors of this report – feared the destruction of the conventional Ukrainian military, even if they expected the fighting to last longer than Moscow had hoped.1Moscow’s plan was for repressive measures to have stabilised control of Ukraine by Victory Day on 9 May. Instead, the Russian military was repulsed, suffering heavy losses, and is now embarking upon a limited offensive to try to secure Donetsk and Luhansk.
The war in Ukraine has generated a considerable volume of highly detailed analysis relating to the military progress of the campaign,2the struggle for information, the cascading economic effects of high energy prices and supply chain disruption,3and the geopolitical fallout as countries are increasingly called upon to pick a side.4However, despite an emphasis in Western security concepts on the need for a whole-of-government approach,5much of the analysis on the war in Ukraine has focused on narrow silos. This Special Report seeks to examine how the interconnected challenges confronting Moscow are reshaping Russian policy, and the risks Moscow’s potential courses of action pose as the war enters a new phase. The foremost conclusion is that Russia is now preparing, diplomatically, militarily and economically, for a protracted conflict.
This report is based on a wide range of sources. On the military front, the report draws upon sustained though periodic engagements with Ukrainian combatants in the conflict and independent reporters observing the fighting on the ground, continual analysis of open source information from the war, and intermittent interviews with senior Ukrainian officials and officers during fieldwork in March and April. The diplomatic and economic analysis draws upon interviews with Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials, energy experts including former employees in Russia’s strategic industries, and diplomats and national security representatives from several NATO and non-NATO member states that have maintained links with Russia. The
report also draws upon inspections by the authors of Russian military equipment recovered from the battlefield during fieldwork in April, and an extensive set of documents from inside the Russian government. Owing to the sensitivity of the methods by which these documents were obtained their sourcing is largely withheld, though the authors took steps to establish
their veracity.
And here are the conclusions:
Conclusions
The initial euphoria at Ukraine’s withstanding the onslaught of the Russian Army has in some parts of Europe brought about a belief that Ukraine’s victory is now assured, or that an exhausted Russia may soon come to the negotiating table. Ukrainian victory is possible, but will demand hard fighting for some time to come. Having first done little to set a narrative about the war, the Russian government had an opportunity to lay the groundwork for de-escalation in mid-March. It made a deliberate decision to escalate its rhetoric and ideologically mobilise its society. By banning dissent, and by holding local officials accountable for the organisation of patriotic mobilisation, the Russian government is in the process of radicalising its public. Even as the cost of living in Russia rises, therefore, the intent in Moscow is to prolong the fighting. In the short term, this means a major offensive in Donbas. In the medium term, there is an intention to bring about a summer offensive to finish Ukraine off. Given that the Russian government has not yet curtailed its wider ambitions – as demonstrated by its designs on Moldova – it is critical that NATO remains firmly determined to not just support Ukraine to hold Donbas but to prepare for a renewed offensive after.
At the same time, a protracted conflict poses dangers for the West. As Europe enters summer, high energy costs will harm businesses, but there will be a delay between this and job losses. By autumn, there is a risk that recession will coincide with cooling temperatures while citizens will struggle to heat their homes. In this context, support for Ukraine may wither, engagement
with Russian disinformation may rise, and Russia’s diplomatic efforts to evade sanctions may gain traction through Western disunity. Limiting Russia’s ability to protract fighting beyond the summer could be effectively enabled by reducing its access to modern armaments. To achieve this, Western countries must conduct a thorough assessment of where their companies are knowingly or inadvertently supplying Russia and cut off these channels. The severing of these channels will not alter the volume of munitions physically stockpiled by Russia for operations in the summer. But the expectations of future manufacture will both shape how much of the stockpile can be expended in Ukraine and the Kremlin’s confidence in the long-term security implications of continuing the war. Reducing dependence on Russian gas must also be a medium-term objective of European policy,
even if it will not have an immediate effect. At the same time, NATO must be more engaged in the information struggle beyond its borders; Western efforts to manage their own energy crisis risk being perceived as imposing costs on the very states whose cooperation will be critical in bringing about Russia’s military and political isolation.Although Russia has clearly been weakened by its battlefield setbacks in Ukraine, the combination of its imperial ambitions and significant coercive power risks destabilisation further afield.
Moldova is the most prominent example, but as the conflict protracts, Russian operations could pose threats in Serbia and beyond. Coordinated efforts to curtail Russian malign influence in these states – and further afield – will be critical if the crisis in Ukraine is to be contained. Further crises,
risking further economic disruption, will prove politically difficult to bear.Finally, the Russian decision to double down is a high-stakes gamble. If Russia mobilises and eventually overcomes Ukrainian resistance then NATO will face an aggressive, isolated and militarised state. If Russia loses then President Putin has now begun radicalising the population in the pursuit of policies that he will struggle to deliver. Failure to defeat the Ukrainian state after relentlessly comparing it to the Nazi regime may have serious consequences for Putin and those around him. To frame a conflict as existential and to lose must necessarily call the suitability of a leader into question among Russia’s political elites. NATO states therefore need to consider how to manage escalation pathways that follow if Russia is not only defeated in Donbas but finds its newly mobilised and poorly trained troops, with few remaining stocks of precision munitions, unable to deliver a victory in the summer. The death of Putin’s political project is plausible, but it has already inflicted immense damage internationally and risks doing considerably more.
Jack Watling is Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at RUSI.
Nick Reynolds is Research Analyst for Land Warfare at RUSI.
Click across and read the whole thing!
I think that’s enough for tonight. Let’s finish up with these:
But I have to say that so far all the people in the uniform that I’ve seen come in chose to pay for their drinks.
— Olga Rudenko (@olya_rudenko) April 21, 2022
This bakery in Kyiv employs people with mental disabilities and is distributing bread for free to ?? soldiers, police, hospital patients, elderly. This Sunday it's Easter in Ukraine and they'll be baking Easter cakes – pasky. You can donate to support them https://t.co/R1UIG0j8pa
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) April 21, 2022
From Good Bread’s home page:
Before the war, we gave people with mental disabilities – autism, intellectual disability, and Down syndrome – a chance to socialize.
But the war changed everything.
Hundreds and thousands of people need food. We now bake bread and cupcakes, which we distribute for free.
Our bread is given to soldiers of the Armed Forces and Territorial Defense, the police, hospital patients, residents of mental hospitals, elderly people, and families with children who stayed in Kyiv.
We bake from 400 to 800 loaves every day.
If you have the ability to, please support us.
All funds will be used to pay for the ingredients for bread and cakes, as well logistics. We also continue to financially support people with mental disabilities who have worked in the bakery, who we cannot put at risk right now. But we are still responsible for them.
If you click across, you’ll find the links to Good Bread’s PayPal and Patreon should you be so inclined to provide them some support in the good work they’re doing for both the developmentally disabled and neuro-atypical in Kyiv, as well as for Kyiv’s defenders and those in need!
And to put this update to bed, someone has finally managed to wear out a Jack Russell terrier!
А dog Patron wishes everyone goodnight ??
Photo: patron_dsns / Instagram pic.twitter.com/ugV8bivGF5
— The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) April 22, 2022
This is Patron, who is a bomb sniffing dog with the Ukrainian State Emergency Service who helps to demine areas that the Russians booby trapped.
Two-year-old Patron works with State Emergency Service rescuers in the northern city of Chernihiv, where he sniffs out Russian bombs (in addition to warming laps, nipping sleeves and generally being a good boy).
In fact, he has helped neutralize nearly 90 explosive devices since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian officials said last month.
“One day, Patron’s story will be turned into a film, but for now, he is faithfully performing his professional duties,” tweeted Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications.
Sleep well bestest boy! You’ve earned a good snooze!
Open thread!
debbie
Thanks, Adam. I’m surprised the major general shot his mouth off like that. Not very disciplined of him.
Gin & Tonic
The overwhelming majority of Catholics in Ukraine are Eastern/Byzantine Rite, not Latin Rite. Perhaps a minor point, but I wanted to clarify.
Sanjeevs
Thanks Adam.
What’s your take on Scholz reluctance to support Ukraine?
Polls seem to indicate German support for sending weapons. Is the SPD compromised that badly?
I felt the British Conservatives were compromised but they have sent a lot of weapons.
Mike in NC
This weekend needs to see six or seven more dead Russian generals.
Sanjeevs
@Mike in NC:
https://mobile.twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1517681600925941762
lashonharangue
Thanks Adam for doing this everyday. In a previous post I believe you said you didn’t think leadership could be taught. Is effective senior leader strategic communication part of that or is it something else. In any case can it be taught? I wonder if his previous career helped him develop it or maybe there is selection bias at work – those who go into comedy/acting know the craft is about communicating with an audience.
marcopolo
A couple things then I’m to bed. First a twitter thread talking about the significance of the fire at the chemical plant yesterday (which totally engulfed and destroyed the facility). A few of the posts to give the overview but there is more including this guy noting that China may wind up backfilling some of the products this place made but that that will take time:
Second, the most recent post (9:30 pm tonight) from Kos @ DailyKos:
Ukraine update: It’s groundhog day , as Russia learned no lessons from it’s Kyiv failures
It’s a good read and at the end he talks about what is going on down south around Kherson where there have been a couple of reports that Ukraine artillery just (within the past half day) have destroyed a Russian forward Command and Control base full of junior and senior officers:
Let’s hope all of the above is true. Thanks to Adam for the post. Good night and everyone have a nice weekend
Edited to note Sanjeev beat me to the last item at comment 5–that’s the problem with pulling together several items, takes too long lol.
Mike in NC
Navy SEALs need to take out this scumbag Kirill and his $30,000 wristwatch. I’m sure we have people on the ground as do our NATO allies.
BeautifulPlumage
Thread on the Russian chemical plant that caught fire and what the production loss means for their war effors:lol
Or what Marcopolo already posted
Ishiyama
@lashonharangue: Lincoln was a humorist – and was not considered up to the job of war-time president by the Eastern elites around him.
PJ
@lashonharangue: Whether or not you know that before you start, if you are a performer and don’t communicate with the audience, you have failed. If you do not care, or are not aware of whether you are communicating with the audience, you will only succeed by luck, and then only occasionally. So, yes, Zelenskyy’s communication skills are not accidental
As to your other question, communication skills can definitely be taught. I also think leadership skills can be taught, but, as with communication, one has to be able to listen and pay attention for those lessons to sink in.
Jay
@lashonharangue:
leadership can be taught, to those inclined, gifted, with leadership qualities, willing to take on the task.
There are lot’s of people who want a “leadership” role, for the pay and the petty authority, who can never learn “leadership”.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Wouldn’t that make them orthodox not Catholic?
Adam L Silverman
@Sanjeevs: I think Scholz and others are too concerned with Germany’s domestic economy and have learned some of the wrong lessons from WWII.
Adam L Silverman
@Sanjeevs: Let me know when that’s reported by someone reliable.
Adam L Silverman
@lashonharangue: Strategic communication can be taught. But like everything else, some have an aptitude for it and some don’t.
Mallard Filmore
@marcopolo:
If this was a sabotage target chosen by Ukraine or NATO, it must have been one of those logistics geniuses that picked the target. More impact for less pew pew. It lacks the instant gratification of blowing up a rail bridge.
Major Major Major Major
Great stuff as always, thanks.
Andrya
@Adam L Silverman: Wouldn’t that make them Orthodox, not Catholic?
No. Catholic long-time lurker here. What most Americans perceive as Catholic are Latin rite Catholics. There are Catholic churches in Eastern Europe- fully Catholic, in communion with Latin rite Catholics- who follow Eastern Orthodox customs, language, and liturgy, but are still Catholic. (Among other Eastern Orthodox customs, the can have married clergy.)
As a young woman I used to go to Mass at an Eastern rite Catholic church in San Francisco. I’m not sure if Mass was celebrated in Russian or Old Church Slavonic, but it was definitely a Slavic language. Since it was a Catholic church, Latin rite Catholics like me were welcome to attend, which would not have been true of an Eastern Orthodox church.
Fun trivia fact- the late pop artist Andy Warhol was an Eastern rite Catholic.
frosty
Thanks for all these posts Adam and all the time you’re taking to assemble and vet the info. I feel better informed than anyone I know.
Grumpy Old Railroader
Adam, This in a nutshell. This description is what I will carry forward
Fake Irishman
@Sanjeevs:
I’ll add to Adam’s comment (which i think is generally correct) by noting that Scholtz is piloting a rather fragile three-way coalition, so he’s treading cautiously. Having said that, it’s interesting that Germany’s buttoned-down mainstream public broadcaster (the ARD) is pushing this aggressively on challenging the government’s line on economic fallout of getting off Russian gas.
Librarian
@Andrya: Yes, and it is said that the icons he saw in church as a child influenced his art- the repetitious images, the gold Marilyns, etc.
Adam L Silverman
@Andrya: Thank you! I fixed it up top.
Fake Irishman
@Andrya:
I believe these churches (loyal to Rome but got to keep their orthodox customs) are called the Uniate churches. These agreements caused a lot of consternation in the heavily immigrant areas of the US around 1900 when a Ukrainian priest would show up with his wife and kids at an Irish or German Catholic bishop’s office somewhere in the Midwest and ask for the right to set up a parish for Ukrainian speakers. My religion professor in college (a fine trilingual Maryknoll priest with a big heart and an excellent sense of humor) grinned when he related that story.
Fake Irishman
@Andrya:
Also, thanks for sharing your experiences growing up! As a sometimes-practicing Catholic, I really appreciate the amazing diversity of practices and traditions within the faith. It helps remind me that I’m a member of a broad community that can be quite inclusive, colorful and welcoming when it wants to be. Too bad the US Conference of Bishops doesn’t reflect that….
Fake Irishman
@Librarian:
My wife read that massive biography that came out on Warhol a few years back and this very fact struck her.
Fake Irishman
@Gin & Tonic:
a very important if subtle point. Thanks for adding it.
Omnes Omnibus
@lashonharangue: Leadership can absolutely be taught. Or, more accurately, it can be learned. As with all skills some take to it easier than others. Some are naturals, but even those can refine their skills. The only people who cannot learn it, even if they can act the part, are self-centered assholes.
Alison Rose ???
Thank you, as always, Adam.
I also don’t know how observant Zelenskyy is, but being that I am not exactly the most observant in the world either, it doesn’t matter to me, because he’s a fellow MoT and I’ve never been so proud of a Jew in my life. And to see one of us showing such integrity and boldness and quiet heroics on the world stage, to see the acclaim and admiration he’s receiving (from the majority, though certainly not the entirety) gets me verklempt. It’s not often that happens for us. I don’t know if he knew on day 1 of the reinvasion that he was the exact right person for his position, but he’s proven it to be true every single day since.
As for Germany…methinks the powers that be need to crack open their fucking history books.
Alison Rose ???
@lashonharangue:
I’ve been trying to find that specific post to send that bit to my mom, and I can’t seem to unearth it via search. If anyone happens to recall when that was roughly, let me know, please.
Torrey
Thank you for all of this, and particularly for signal-boosting Good Bread. It’s an organization doing a lot of good right now in a difficult situation.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: My assertion, which is really an argument with how the Combined Arms Center sees the world, is that they break leadership down into a variety of different qualities or characteristics. And then think those can be trained and taught. Effective communication can be. Character and integrity cannot. You can identify character and integrity, you can nurture it and mentor it. But if it isn’t there to begin with you cannot teach it or train it,
VeniceRiley
This TL;DR thread explains everything to me about Russia and why they hate Ukraine intensely and take decisions that make zero sense to outsiders:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1516162711146573825?s=12
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Then we effectively agree. The skill set can be honed, but caring about those you are leading, being willing to stand up for them, etc., can’t be taught.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I reckoned we would be. It has been a long time since I’ve had to deal with this stuff, so for all I know someone out there finally realized the conceptual problem they’d created for themself and the Army.
kalakal
It seems the UA may be getting some more heavy armour. According to the BBC
We should be grateful to the Major General for idiotically shooting his mouth off. It puts a spoke in the wheel of the pro appeasement surrender monkeys calls for give Putin what he wants and we can all go home happy. It’s a explicit declaration that in the event of a successful war in Ukraine Russia intends to invade the next country in line.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: No. it’s complicated, but it’s late and I’m trying to get back to sleep.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I already fixed it. Sleep well.
Traveller
As has been said here repeatedly, Thank You to Mr. Silverman. His work in assembling and in meaningful analysis day after day…has left me searching for a way for him to somehow turn this all into a book or some formal reward for his real and substantial efforts.
Regardless, while I will keep thinking on this, (some reward or profit for you), maybe it is enough to know that you are proving a real public service….and you are much appreciated, (on a daily basis!…{grin})
Best Wishes, Traveller
sab
@Adam L Silverman: I think Gin & Tonic and I exchanged comments on this years ago. In my town there are lots of Croatian Americans who are Catholic. I’m Episcopalian, which is sort of Protestant in theology but somewhat Latin Catholic in ritual. My husband is Irish American so very Roman Catholic in theology and ritual. His ex married a Croatian Catholic. Their theology is Catholic but their ritual is more Orthodox/Byzantine.
My father had a Croatian-American colleague who was the ninth child of an Eastern rite Catholic priest. Priests in the Eastern rite cannot marry, but they are allowed to marry before they are ordained, and they are allowed to be ordained if they are married. That is all the difference.
I thought this was just a Croatian thing. G&T said it also includes Ukraine.
Pretty common discussion in Ohio. The Lebanese Christians in America also have these distinctions.
Mag
What are good organizations to donate to in order to help Ukraine and displaced Ukrainians?
Jay
@VeniceRiley:
funny thing, Pushkin was of African descent,
Jay
@Mag:
there is an entire sidebar dedicated to donating to the Ukraine.
https://balloon-juice.com/ways-to-help-ukraine/
oldster
@Jay:
Yes! Or at least, he had 1/8 African ancestry, which is enough to make you ride Jim Crow in Georgia.
There was a fad in the Russian court for kidnapping young Africans to act as slaves, servants, liveries, call it what you will. Weirder — Pushkin’s great-grandfather was aquired for the court by Tolstoy’s great-grandfather.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abram_Petrovich_Gannibal
The world is strange.
YY_Sima Qian
Corridor to Transnistria means taking Odessa & making the rump of Ukraine landlocked., but yeah, I don’t see how Putin has the combat power to achieve these objectives short of using tactical nukes. No amount of massacre of civilians will help him achieve those goals, quite the opposite.
wetzel
Thank you so much Adam for the hard work of putting these posts together. Your Ukraine updates are like a big giant hay wagon where we are all talking and arguing and you are pulling the wagon! Thank you!
I’m immediately thinking about the central claim in President Zelensky’s speech. How could any war be ‘for life’ and ‘against death’? A leader making such a claim is to stand in the light of history’s judgment. They have to justify their own ethos to make such a claim, because to say that your war is ‘for life’ and ‘against death’ is different than saying a war is ‘just’. It’s claiming sacred violence. I think this is justified, even in secular humanism, or existentially, because a defensive war of a democracy against a totalitarian fascist state is an existential battle for the sacred dignity of individual people. The war is on both the spiritual and physical planes.
Any state has the right to defend itself when a neighboring countries tank columns enter its territory, just like any person has the right to defend themselves against the mugger with the knife. The presence or absence of justice within your own society does not affect your claims of legitimate self defense, or it is not supposed to in international law.
It should be universally acknowledged that when a democratic society finds itself in a defensive war against an aggressive totalitarian fascist state, the war should not only be considered ‘just’ under international law, but it is also ‘for life over death’. Firstly, this is because genocide is the eschatological constitution of scientific totalitarianism. Genocide, spectacular atrocious violence, carnography as black propaganda constitutes the totalitarian subject. Stimuli cannot be understood if there are no schemas to process. How can Russians be receiving medals for shooting people in the back of the head?
In Piaget, if you cannot assimilate something new, you can’t understand it, if your existing picture of the world, your existing schemas, cannot project it within your consciousness as percepts, roles, scripts, etc. so cognitive development has to occur. Piaget calls this accommodation. The totalitarian subject, the Soviet subject, is the scientific creation of the terror state. It is a form of collective unconsciousness instilled by genocide. Within its purview, human remains have no symbolic value. It is a form of collective unconsciousness. It has accommodated to inhumanity.
I think there is an argument within existentialist humanism how the Ukraine war is a war ‘for life’. I think it is a kind of ‘common sense’ that scientific forms of reasoning do not fully encompass the human understanding of truth. We are ‘towards Death’, and so we have a symbolic understanding of ourselves, the metaphor of individuality, which is not reproducible. It can’t be sampled or observed in the verifiability criteria for meaningfulness of science. The sacred dignity of the individual is self-evident. It is an existential truth. It’s the difference between being alive and being a dead body, where you are only at hand and science we can see the dynamic open systems are breaking down and falling towards free energy minima.
In systems theory people try to understand emergence and supervenience relations analytically from physics, chemistry, biochemistry, molecular cell, tissues, organ systems, organism, psyche, family, society, biome, galactic federation etc. A cell is an open, dynamic, steady state system whereby oxidation of nutrient molecules tracks through enzyme kinetics holding it up like the heat flow through a working body moves the locomotive. A living cell could enter a stage of senescence or apoptosis where the system falls from the tight-rope to either another steady state or the molecules release to find entropy in mixture. An area of tissue may become necrotic. Lacking proper inputs and feedback cell death is spontaneous and irreversible.
Is it justified to draw analogy between life and death at the cellular level and life and death at the level of society? Can you call a defensive war by a democracy a war for life? We would be leaving the biological perspective behind but still taking ‘life’ as an idea with us along for the ride, which is nonsense. Maybe ‘life’ can help us understand something metaphorically, though. From a thermodynamic perspective cell death is spontaneous. What that means is that it is a process that does not go backwards. Each stepwise process on the way to death is more likely than the reverse in the statistical mechanics of the situation. I think the transformation of a democracy into a totalitarian fascist state is also irreversible for similar probabilistic reasons which could be justified in information or game theory.
In summary, I think the claim that a defensive war of a democracy against a totalitarian state is a war ‘for life’ and ‘against death’ is a justified statement within existentialist humanism. In terms of the individual cognitive psychology, victory is absolutely existential to the person’s own understanding of themselves as fully human because a citizen within a terror state is forced to accommodate to inhumanity. Secondly, I think the claim such a war is ‘for life’ and ‘against death’ can also be justified in systems theory in that a democracy takes work from its citizens and democratic renewal. It’s not homeostasis when there is development and progress. Just like even in totalitarian dictatorship, you are still a human being if you are having philosophical, artistic or religious experience.
I think Zelensky is doing a good job. He groks his own ethos. It’s incredible to see. To be Zelensky must be a surreal experience. I think he just remembers auditioning as an actor, how hard that could be, maybe a habit from the existentiality of improvisational comedy. I think he just learned to trust himself when he was a performer. Anyway, he has filled the shoes Ukraine needed him to fill. He is a good President for them. Zelensky has cynewyrth (kin-worth) like in Beowulf’s world. He is on point that their war is ‘for life’ and ‘against death’. I think it is justified to say that, and it is good for the morale his people and their army given the sacrifices they are making.
Sloane Ranger
@Adam L Silverman: Less from WWII, more from the downfall of the Weimar Republic. It’s an article of faith among Germany’s political class that the rise of the Nazi’s was the result of the widespread economic crisis, inflation and unemployment that existed in its final years. Therefore, anything that might give rise to those things again must be avoided at all costs
wetzel
If the purpose of the Ukraine War is the reconstitution of Russian state terror, then these fires are most likely Reichstag fires. I don’t see how they serve any legitimate military purpose for Ukraine, and the Russian people are not ‘rising up’. The conspiracies will be uncovered. The far reaching tendrils will be rooted out.
Last week FSB purged itself. Now I think Russia is preparing docile bodies by the spectacle of atrocity in the war (look what can happen to you!) and the creation of the pretext for widespread interrogation and investigation at home. I think Putin is conducting this war to reconstitute Russian state terror. I think that is his most important war priority. I think victory for Putin will be a purge of the intelligentsia and ‘foreign elements’ in Russia, a reestablishment of scientific totalitarianism, justified within a Christo-fascist phenomenology instead of Marxist. Both views are Hegelian and totalizing. The shift from Marxism to this new philosophy has not affected the institutional continuity of FSB going back to the 1930’s because it is just a mask for the scientific, totalitarian, panoptic gaze.
evodevo
@Adam L Silverman: This. If anything, the last 5 years have taught that lesson…
wetzel
There is a purge of oligarchs happening.
To think Russia is so terrorized now that Putin has gained the power to openly cull the highest strata of Russian society. Putin can make anyone disappear.
Spc
@Sanjeevs: no one knows what the impact of a gas embargo will be – and people use one set of speculative stats or another to support their existing positions. There is fear of energy retaliation and inability to stockpile for winter if that happens. I doubt the SPD is “compromised” in any real way – there are some Russland versteher on its left wing but this is a mainstream party – not die Linke. After 16 years as a junior party in the Groko coalition they don’t want to be left holding the bag on a potential major recession knowing well that the public is fickle and support to do more may not last through a severe downturn, which longer term could help the Kremlin. Plus, there isn’t a ton to give given the long degradation of the Bundeswehr. Best course of action is to ramp up arms mftg. domestically for material that can be made quickly and pay for it. They’ve started doing that but need to be more aggressive. On a side note – they are taking in a lot of refugees, more than any other country that isn’t bordering the conflict and this still counts for something even if less critical.
wetzel
@Spc: From the point of view of a citizen of a country that recently almost lost its centuries old democracy to Russian active measures, the United States, it is understandable to doubt the surface features of German politics which have also vested economic interest in Russia. One charitable interpretation is that the entire Western diplomatic side understands any ‘heroic’ role for Germany will feed Russian animus for obvious, historical reasons that would service Russian propaganda. Therefore, the best play is the anti-heroic for Germany, confused and cowardly seeming. I don’t know. Germany has an impossible role to fulfill. Nobody’s hoping for the German calvary to come over through Poland.
Jinchi
The Reichstag fire was an attack on the German parliament building, so an assault on a civilian government institution akin to Trump’s mob attack on Congress.
If Adam’s description is right, these have all been Russian military institutions: recruitment centers and with weapons research and development centers. If Putin wanted to reconstitute state terror, the attacks would be targeted on the civilian population, not the war effort.
charon
@VeniceRiley:
You might find interesting a piece in the NYT by Timothy Snyder about Ukrainian bilingualism and its impact and effects. Piece is pretty long and I can not really do it justice with excerpts unfortunately.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/22/magazine/ruscism-ukraine-russia-war.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=The%20New%20York%20Times%20Magazine
charon
@charon:
You could say, though, that Ukrainians understand Russians a lot better than Russians understand Ukrainians.
wetzel
@Jinchi: The civilian or military nature is immaterial to the propagandistic, spectacular value as pretext for emergency measures within Russia. The analogy is imperfect just as any event is different from any other in its facticity. It is a proposed interpretation. To judge the events spectacularly. FSB understands violence and catastrophe as a kind of propaganda.
From my perspective, the only rationale for genocide in Ukraine would be to reconstitute terror in Russia. This was done by the same Russian institutions to Ukraine in the 1930’s for the same reason. Stalin showed that even the bread basket was at his mercy. They have file folders at FSB that show how people answered questions differently all across Russia during the purges, classical, operant, cognitive and phenomenological models by all the geniuses for generations, who are recruited to FSB like sylvan illuminati, always the smartest.
The rationale for these explosions and fires across Russia might be pretext or a necessary premise for emergency measures to begin the purge FSB has considered overdue of the broader population now that FSB itself, oligarchs and generals have been purged. I think Putin’s Leningrad FSB branch believed Russia missed a purge in the 1970’s, and the result was Glasnost and Perestroika. If for a moment you try out the idea that Putin’s goal is to take Russia through the transformation into scientific totalitarianism so that it will fit within FSB models again, you will understand he is not losing his war, which is inside Russia.
Jinchi
Sure, but you could just as easily argue that the sinking of the Moskva was a pretext. It just seems much more likely that it was a successful attack by enemies of the war.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jinchi: wetzel has their theory and is running with it.
wetzel
@Jinchi: How is the sinking of the Moskva relevant? I don’t understand. The sinking of the Moskva, unlike the bombings across Russia, isn’t evidence of a domestic insurgency needing to be uprooted. There is the crime of negligence. Maybe the ‘wasted fuel’ in the towing. It has no propagandistic content, except perhaps showing wise targeting from an information warfare perspective, meaning wise targeting by the Ukrainians to produce a spectacular and demoralizing show for the Russians, like the Doolittle raid.
wetzel
@Omnes Omnibus: wetzel has their theory and is running with it.
It must be just a mania, then. Thanks for the therapy. I guess that’s what it is, minus the positive regard, humanistic therapy from Omnes Omnibus. Glad to know how to attribute this nonsense.
wetzel
Do people believe there could be serious domestic insurgency in Russia? I think this is a romantic notion, some kind of heroic resistance story like a movie.
Do people think Ukrainian military is sending special operatives to attack ‘military instrastructure’ in Russia? What real time battlefield effect will there be? Do any of these attacks tactically benefit Ukraine? Hindering Russia’s long-term missile development program does nothing for Ukrainian victory.
What is more likely is that these are false flag attacks within Russia to create the conditions for a fake Russian Civil War as the pretext for a purge. Probabilistic likelihood is the basis for inductive logic. You would look for evidence for the employment of violent spectacle to produce public compliance and achieve political ends. With Putin, there is an existing fact pattern.
According to Wikipedia, “Some historians and journalists claim the bombings were coordinated by Russian state security services to help bring Putin into the presidency.” Maybe not!!
Another Scott
Relatedly, perhaps…
(via Oryx…)
Are those Putin-aligned dominos looking a bit precarious?? Perhaps the ports at Tartus will be another casualty of VVP’s stupid and horrible war.
Cheers,
Scott.
Medicine Man
It’s funny how the Russians are so drunk on testosterone and this “we’re strong, so we’ll take what we want”-thinking that they can’t keep their mouths shut about their long-term goals. I mean, we can crap on this general opening his yap all we want, but the top guy basically did the same thing prior to invading Ukraine. The whole miserable lot of them could have made the decision to all-out oppose them a lot harder to make by maintaining some ambiguity, but no, that wasn’t what any of them want…
Testosterone poisoning to the brain. Truly.
Medicine Man
Heh… the Ukrainians themselves have commented on this. “It’s a good thing for us they’re so stupid.”
Another Scott
Reuters – Ukraine PO hit by DDoS attack after starting online sales of Moskva/Snake Island stamp.
Here’s hoping they get that resolved soon – I’d like a plate of them.
Cheers,
Scott.
Feathers
@wetzel: The recruitment centers, perhaps. The chemical factory, not so much. It is too necessary to the war effort to be sacrificed. However, I can easily imagine scenarios where a) what was supposed to be a small but not disabling false flag operation turned disastrous when the expected fire fighting equipment failed or turned out to not exist; or b) someone gets the plans and thinks why such a small explosion, we could easily take the whole place out.
But as someone who did write mystery novels for a while, the most likely explanation is that someone who worked at the factory is against the war, and either by themselves or a few trusted confederates, blew the place up. It is well within the realm of how real life conspiracies play out.
All above is total speculation, apologies Adam.
wetzel
@Feathers: From FSB’s perspective it might actually be better if they were copycat or carried out by so-called ‘rebels’, who can be instigated or fomented. Like that protester who lay down in Red square tied and hooded like the victim in Bucha, they serve the propaganda purpose to institute the terror state despite their well-meaning bourgeousie ‘intentionality’. It’s a social constructivist approach to the creation of docile bodies. Violence for the purpose of terror is always spectacular. The factitious aspect is marginal. Al Quaeda did not care about the actual physical damage to the World Trade Center. But it’s not enough to say that the violence has an expressive dimension in terror. Because it creates social crisis, spectacular violence is phenomenological. It makes a doorway into a new social reality. I believe Putin and FSB think of themselves as engineers of the terror state. I believe they view atrocity in Ukraine as a form of demonstration that will institute complete public social compliance in Russia, and these recent attacks as the proximal judicial focus as what they need to provide initial investigatory targets for what will ultimately grow to be an enormous secret system of disappearance, tribunals and execution, about which we may never learn the true scope because they will manage the records of it bureaucratically.
Hob
On a silly note, I’m guessing that “steal the toilet and die” is a reference and/or pun that got somewhat lost in translation, but I like it a lot anyway.
Bill Arnold
@wetzel:
Killing of children is not FSB MO. Killing of dissidents, yes. Family, not so much. (Weaponized insanity is not really a FSB thing, either (maybe American/Israeli, not sure). They (and Russian gangster types) go for direct, like “heart attacks” (induced, e.g. with poison (there are many ways)), sometimes with associated head trauma, or suicide by fall from window, or bullets.)
So the FSB attribution is less than certain.
wetzel
@Bill Arnold: Up until now Putin has been like the kingpin of kingpins. The boss of all bosses, who could make you shoot your own self in the back of the head!
You could write a song from Putin’s folk death mechanisms. Falling from a 5th floor balcony. Getting one of his fluorophosphates on a doorknob. He would suicide you in a completely implausible way. That’s the fascism of any tyrant.
What I think the Ukraine War represents is the descent of Russia from autocracy to scientific totalitarianism. What gets back through Western media to Russians will be extreme, horrific carnographies of grotesque, inhuman violent spectacles their own Army has done. They know it is true. Bucha will force Russians into a monstrous form of complicity. It is atrocity as a spectacle which is for public compliance to the institutionalization of terror.
What you are describing in Putin’s past behavior was an attempt at conformity to bourgeoisie mores. How is it significant to say it is not FSB’s M.O. after the butchers of Bucha are receiving medals. Of course now they are killing children. Everyone is supposed to see their own families. No families are safe, in Ukraine or in Russia. The Russians see what their army has done and could do to them. All of the oligarchs and their families understand the new order.
There are different ways to approach what’s happening. People see different things. What I am trying to describe which I think is significant to say is difficult to make clear language for. I’m sorry if it’s not clear or if I’m oversimplifying. I just don’t see this war as having the same goals for Putin as others seem to suppose.