Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from this evening in Kyiv. It has the usual English subtitles and the transcript, with my bolding and italicizing for emphasis, follows.
Today I will begin my evening address to you without greetings.
Today Russia launched another missile strike at Ukraine, at Odesa. As of now – 8 dead. At least 18 wounded. Ordinary peaceful people. Among those killed was a 3-month-old baby girl. How did she threaten Russia? It seems that killing children is just a new national idea of the Russian Federation.
The missiles were launched by Russian strategic aircraft. From the Caspian Sea region. We managed to shoot down two missiles. Five more missiles hit a peaceful city. Including the usual apartment house, the usual high-rise building.
We will identify all those responsible for this strike. Those responsible for Russia’s missile terror. Everyone who gives these orders. Everyone who fulfills these orders. No one will be able to hide. No matter how long it takes us, all these bastards will be responsible for every death they caused.
Russia has already fired most of its missile arsenal at Ukraine. Of course, they still have missiles. Of course, they can still continue the missile terror against our people. But what they have already done is definitely arguments sufficient for the world to eventually recognize the Russian state as a sponsor of terrorism and the Russian army as a terrorist organization. We will continue to insist on this in negotiations with our partners. There is simply no alternative to such recognition. That is why it is true.
The Russian state has become a terrorist, and it is not ashamed. And if it is not ashamed, it is deliberate. Therefore, there must be maximum responsibility.
New facts about the crimes of the occupiers against our Mariupol residents are being revealed. New graves of people killed by the occupiers are being found. We are talking about tens of thousands of dead Mariupol residents. Negotiations of the occupiers on how they conceal the traces of their crimes are recorded.
Russia continues the activities of so-called filtration camps, particularly near Mariupol. Although the honest name for them is, in fact, different – it’s concentration camps. Like those built by the Nazis in the past.
Ukrainians from these camps – the survivors – are sent further into the occupied territories and to Russia. The facts of deportation of our citizens to the Russian boondocks, to Siberia, even to Vladivostok are recorded. They also deport children hoping that they will forget where their home is and where they are from. And they are from Ukraine.
Today was Holy Saturday for Christians of the Eastern Rite. The day between the Crucifixion and the Resurrection. It seems that Russia is stuck on such a day. For years. On the day when death triumphs and God is supposedly gone.
But there will be a Resurrection. Life will defeat death. The truth will defeat any lies. And evil will be punished. And Russia will have to learn these truths again, it’s only a matter of time. It is only a matter of time before all Russian murderers feel what a fair response to their crimes is. It is only a matter of time before we can bring all the deported Ukrainians home. It is only a matter of time before all our people all over Ukraine feel what a strong peace is.
I spoke today with Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson. I informed him about the situation in Mariupol, in the areas of hostilities in general. I thanked him for the significant defensive and financial support for Ukraine. We coordinated further steps needed to protect our freedom.
We are also preparing for tomorrow’s important talks with American partners.
I held a big live press conference in Kyiv today. Answered many questions – different, from different journalists. Both Ukrainian and foreign. And it’s not just about openness, really. Not just about information. It’s about whose side the truth is on in the war. This is about who can speak truthfully both with his people and with the whole world. Ukrainians can. Our enemies cannot.
And finally. There will be a curfew tonight. Please follow this rule. This is important from a security point of view. But starting from 5 am you will be able to visit temples in your cities, towns and communities. Where it is possible to hold a church service. Please – only in the morning.
I am grateful to each of our defenders who ensure our security this night before Easter and every day. Who defend the state. Who fight for the freedom of Ukrainians.
Eternal glory to all our warriors!
Eternal memory to all who gave lives for Ukraine.
Glory to Ukraine!
I’ll have more on the attack on Odesa after the jump. But I want to highlight, like last night, the passage from President Zelenskyy’s remarks regarding Easter.
Today was Holy Saturday for Christians of the Eastern Rite. The day between the Crucifixion and the Resurrection. It seems that Russia is stuck on such a day. For years. On the day when death triumphs and God is supposedly gone.
But there will be a Resurrection. Life will defeat death. The truth will defeat any lies. And evil will be punished. And Russia will have to learn these truths again, it’s only a matter of time.
Like his remarks from last night pertaining to Easter, President Zelenskyy’s statement this evening is also an excellent example of strategic communication. Both for tying Ukraine’s defense against Putin’s reinvasion to the religious context of this weekend for the majority of Ukrainians, but also because by the time he prepared, if not delivered these remarks he had most surely been briefed about this:
Putin is celebrating Orthodox Easter alongside the mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, who he normally does this with instead of the actual family he doesn’t acknowledge in public pic.twitter.com/S0lwXwboex
— max seddon (@maxseddon) April 23, 2022
Putin ordered an airstrike on Odesa that killed a three month old and her mother and then he went to Church for Holy Saturday services.
President Zelenskyy’s remarks, leaning heavily into the Christian themes of this weekend – the battle between good and evil, the midpoint of that battle on Holy Saturday where the outcome for good seems less than certain – is intended to both fortify his citizenry in their defense of Ukraine and to clearly articulate the stakes of Ukraine’s defense, by contextualizing it within the religious themes of this weekend.
It is all the more striking because, as I noted last night, Jews don’t talk about Easter this way. Which is the third component of President Zelenskyy’s strategic communication yesterday and today. By making these themes explicit in a way that Jews never do, he is drawing a contrast with all the actual Christian religious leaders and the political leaders that lean heavily into their being Christians and why that is a reason they are fit for public office, who have said little or nothing. I’m sure you have noticed that some of the most publicly self declared Christians in the GOP caucuses in the US House and Senate either have said little and/or actually voted against providing assistance to Ukraine. I’m sure you’ve noticed that far too many of America’s always very public, always looking for a TV news camera to morally scold everyone else Christian leaders have said little to nothing and are hoping none of us have noticed that they’ve been playing footsie with Putin’s pet patriarch Kirill, Kirill’s trusted agents, and Putin’s pet oligarchs and siloviki for well over a decade at the National Prayer Breakfasts and at a variety of global Christian conferences. Franklin Graham may have placed one of his field hospitals in Ukraine, but he’s also been cozying up to Kirill and Putin for the better part of a decade.
President Zelenskyy’s remarks are not just to rally his own people on behalf of their just war defending Ukraine, they are intended to both highlight the hypocrisy of those who use their religion as both sword to oppress others and shield when called on their hypocrisy. Unfortunately you cannot shame the shameless.
Ukrainians are under warnings from both Metropolitan Epiphanius, Primate of Kyiv and Ukraine, as well as from the civilian government to stay in secure shelters tonight and tomorrow rather than go to church for Holy Saturday and Easter Sunday services.
⚡️ SBU: Russian shelling likely to increase on Easter.
Security Service has called for Ukrainians to stay home during Easter festivities.
The SBU published a recording in which an alleged Russian soldier says his troops are writing “Christ is risen” on the shells.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 23, 2022
This is why:
russians are preparing to shell Ukrainian towns this night & tomorrow as Orthodox Christians will celebrate Easter. A russian soldier tells his woman that they are painting "Christ is risen" on the missiles. she laughs
Source: SBU intercepts #GenocideOfUkrainians #ArmUkraineNow pic.twitter.com/BBXDmyZx77— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) April 23, 2022
Much more after the jump.
Here’s tonight’s operational update from the Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense (emphasis mine).
The operational update regarding the #russian_invasion on 18.00 on April 23, 2022
The fifty-ninth day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues. A russian federation continues its full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine.
russian enemy is trying to increase the pace of the operation in east of Ukraine in order to encircle the Joint Forces, as well as to establish full control over Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
In the Volyn and Polissya areas, russian enemy did not take active action, no signs of the formation of offensive groups were found.
In the Slobozhansky direction, russian enemy continues to partially blockade the city of Kharkiv, carrying out artillery shelling of the positions of our units and civilian infrastructure in the area of the settlements of Chuhuiv, Korobochkino and Dovgenke.
In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, the main efforts of russian enemy were focused on taking control of the settlements of Popasna, Rubizhne and preparing for the attack on the city of Siverodonetsk. In the area of Marinka and in most other areas, russian enemy is unsuccessful in the course of hostilities.
In the South Buh direction, russian occupiers did not carry out active offensive operations, russians carried out single shellings of Ukrainian units with barrel artillery.
According to available information, russian enemy has significant problems with the medical support of its units, there are difficulties with the evacuation of the wounded, there is a lack of medicine. Due to the growing number of wounded, in the city of Balakliya, the enemy, along with the deployed military hospital, uses the capabilities of the city clinic.
In the city of Vovchansk, which is temporarily occupied, junior medical personnel of health care facilities are forcibly sent to provide first aid to russian enemy units on the line of contact with the Defence Forces of Ukraine.
Also, the russian troops have significant problems with the replenishment of personnel, attempts to forcibly mobilize residents of the Kherson region to the russian occupying forces continue.
According to available information, russian enemy uses civilian trucks to move military cargo in the temporarily occupied territories. Also, russian occupiers continue to use stolen agricultural machinery for military purposes.
Units of the Defence Forces of Ukraine continue to liberate settlements in certain areas and maintain certain defensive lines.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Let’s win together!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here’s their updated map, also for today:
As you can see everything seems to be continuing the way it has been going for the past ten days to two weeks.
Earlier today, before his nightly address, President Zelenskyy had a press conference in one of the stations of the Kyiv subway. During those remarks and the Q&A he made a very clear ultimatum to Putin:
“If our people in Mariupol are killed, if pseudo-referendums are announced in the new pseudo-republics, Ukraine will withdraw from any negotiation process,” said Zelensky.
This was after making it clear that as of now, Ukraine does not have the military equipment it needs to break the siege of Mariupol so that the Azov Regiment, the 36th Separate Marine Brigade, and the Mariupolians they are defending can break out and make it to safety.
The president said that without additional arms, Ukraine can’t conduct sustainable counter-offensive operations and break the siege of Mariupol, a port city with a pre-war population of 450,000 people, now completely destroyed by Russian troops.
“Don’t believe anyone, we’re not ready to break the siege,” he said. “It’s the reality.”
Here’s video of President Zelenskyy’s press conference with English subtitles:
Odesa:
Video of the Russian cruise missile strike on Odesa today. https://t.co/o2zs3fTi48 pic.twitter.com/UQdRrFKTMT
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 23, 2022
Friends and acquaintances are sharing their memories of Valeria and writing condolences for her husband on her social media pages. Her husband Yuriy has posted photos of them all with this message: “My dear ones, Kingdom of Heaven! You are in our hearts!”
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 23, 2022
Mariupol:
Right now. Right this minute. Children at #Azovstal are starving. Ukrainian soldiers defending them give their food to the children. They have been under bombings for months. They just want to live. They want to go out and have a normal life.#SaveMariupol #Mariupol #StopRussia pic.twitter.com/KDArASYbwF
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 23, 2022
Nakhodka is located in 10,000 km from Mariupol. Russians, I wish this war come to your land one day.
— Nika Melkozerova (@NikaMelkozerova) April 23, 2022
АЗОВ нищить російського ворога в Маріуполі ????? pic.twitter.com/cCmjObtiBc
— НГУ (@ng_ukraine) April 23, 2022
The caption reads:
Azov destroys the Russian enemy in Mariupol
Irpin:
WARNING! WARNING!!!! Contains News Reporting That May Trigger Those Who Have Suffered Sexual Assault!!!!
Source: https://t.co/t9Wj4nhtDD
— Anastasiia Lapatina (@lapatina_) April 22, 2022
From Ukrayinska Pravda:
Three Russian soldiers raped the mother and sister of a 17-year-old girl in front of her in Irpin, Kyiv region. Both mother and sister died of their injuries and torture.
Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Liudmyla Denisova reported the atrocities committed by the Russians. The girl had called the ombudsman’s hotline for mental health support and told her story.
The 17-year-old girl who witnessed the brutal murder of her relatives suffered psychological shock and lived in the house with their bodies for four days.
“She said that while her relatives were murdered, she was held and not touched,‘because I am a freak’. They said, ‘Stay alive and get the word out to others’,” Denisova said.
The girl is now with her grandmother and receiving therapy.
More at the link!
Pretty much everywhere in Ukraine:
And many Ukrainians are watching from bomb shelters, as there are again air raid alerts across the country. Russian barbarians don't let this be a peaceful Easter https://t.co/fnBAMG1eQt
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) April 23, 2022
Whomever is doing the sabotage in Russia, and my money is still on Russian’s opposed to the war and Putin’s government have now taken out a hydroelectric complex:
The 4th incident in 2 days. This time Fedorovsky hydroelectric complex collapsed in Kuban, Russia. Emergency officials stressed there is no danger of flooding of nearby settlements and it is under investigation. Really feels like an FSB operation but will wait for more details pic.twitter.com/feGl6MHEG7
— Olga Lautman ?? (@OlgaNYC1211) April 23, 2022
Last night several people in comments linked to a tweet indicating that the Ukrainian military had killed almost 50 Russian senior officers in a strike on a field headquarters. Please, for the love of anyone’s, someone’s, everyone’s Deity or Deities, or for the atheists no one’s Deity or Deities, DO NOT POST ANYTHING BY THAT GUY!!!! HE BASICALLY DOES NOTHING BUT TWEET OUT WHAT HE CLAIMS IS BREAKING NEWS, CALLS FOR RETWEETS, AND THEN ASKS FOR DONATIONS!!!! Which is why I replied to at least one of those comments that I wanted to wait for this to be reported by a more reliable source. Today we have one: Ukrainian Military Intelligence.
And you can see why it made sense to wait to see if someone reliable reported this. The Ukrainian military DID NOT KILL almost 50 Russian military personnel. They killed two generals and wounded one other at the forward point of control of the 49th General Army of Russia.
Obligatory:
Just because some dipshit manages to get himself verified on Twitter and tweets constant clickbait for Democrats and liberals doesn’t mean he should be verified, he should be retweeted, or that he should be funded by donations. It just means he’s found a lucrative grift.
Your semi daily Patron the EOD dog, who appears to be quite refreshed after his snoozle!
The star among all the dogs in #Ukraine – Patron – is on duty as always! pic.twitter.com/dCMhiJ9AY2
— Hanna Liubakova (@HannaLiubakova) April 23, 2022
And we’ll end with your semi daily Chef Jose Andres:
As @Ukraine celebrates Orthodox Eastern on Sunday we have many partners of @WCKitchen doing tens of thousands of Eastern traditional cakes and eggs. This video is from one of the amazing team of of our beloved Yulia Stefanyuk in Lviv #ChefForUkraine #FoodFighters pic.twitter.com/tpTjzMmFmT
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 23, 2022
Easter is Sunday in Ukraine! Today our partners started delivering Easter kits to refugees. It is so important to maintain traditions… giving hope that there are still bright moments after 60 days of war. This is Lviv…but we will have presents all over Ukraine! #ChefsForUkraine pic.twitter.com/AJgE95cGH9
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 23, 2022
A happy and healthy Easter to all who observe the various Eastern Orthodox and Eastern Rite traditions tomorrow.
Open thread!
zhena gogolia
I guess the dog is named Patron as in “cartridge.”
Jharp
“And finally. There will be a curfew tonight. Please follow this rule. This is important from a security point of view.“
And the Republican response when asked to make an even smaller sacrifice for the safety of all………….?
Ksmiami
Can we just sink all of the Russian fleet clandestinely? They are such easy targets
Another Scott
Your warnings to be skeptical of claims on Twitter are a good one. The fog of war is real.
There might or might not have been some kinetic events of some sort involved with the dam. It looks like it was undergoing maintenance and repairs since last September (work was scheduled to be completed this December):
FWIW.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
debbie
You just know Russia will try to flatten every church in the country tomorrow.
Betsy
Thank you for that analysis of Zelenskyy’s strategic messaging, Adam. Not only has he centered the conflict in the Christian minds he must reach, but he has centered Christianity for us where it was and is *supposed* to be. What a man, with what a righteous mind. This is so much more than excellent strategic communication. It is speechmaking, inspiration, call to action *and* statement of soundest principle; it is Lincoln or Martin Luther King.
dp
I assume “Odesa” is the spelling from Ukrainian, as opposed to the Russian “Odessa”? It’s just a little jarring.
Mike in NC
Putin was career KGB and remains an avowed Communist atheist. Any pretense of being a practicing Orthodox Christian is about as believable as fucking Trump attending church services. Pure propaganda.
BeautifulPlumage
Patron! And don’t overlook this good boi:
Under abandoned Russian equipment recovered by Ukrainians
HRA
Putin showed up in Yugoslavia to see Tito without calling ahead of time. He was made to wait in a outside area with guards before allowed in to see Tito. Once in Tito said why are you here? Putin said he had come to build a church. Tito told him every village and every city here has a church. We do not need your church. Go home.
I am Greek Eastern Orthodox.
BeautifulPlumage
And I appreciate your previous remarks concerning information coming out about incidents. I’ve learned to be skeptical about comments declaring this or that specific thing being the cause. Your learned perspective has been invaluable since the 2015 entry of Trump when I first found this jackal pack. Thank you!
ETA this is to Adam, sorry that was unclear
Jay
Thank you again, Adam.
Another Scott
US C17 Globemaster from Ramstein, Germany apparently landing in Poland now, near the Ukraine border. I imagine that it’s full-to-the-gills with military equipment.
Cheers,
Scott.
Ksmiami
What next Adam- can we escalate to de-escalate and save Ukrainian lives? I’m done with allowing fear of Putin determine everything.
Gin & Tonic
@dp: Yes.
Ted
@Mike in NC: As if religion had any net effect whatsoever.
Martin
@Ksmiami: We are escalating. Note we sending more capable and more substantial weapons to Ukraine. There’s also been a careful monitoring of Russian nuclear response with no change in posture, so the US/NATO likely feel they can turn the dial up another notch. I think it’s just a slow feedback loop – send something new, see the reaction, decide what other new thing you can send, see the reaction, etc.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: A few days ago (IIRC) Adam’s update included a tweet with a list of what all the various countries were sending (one line per country) and they all basically stated with “artillery”. Heart-warming, that was.
Andrya
Adam, thanks again for doing this!
I think President Zelinskyy is doing everything you say in his statements about Christian Easter and resurrection, but I think he is also doing something else as well.
Russia has developed a serious no-freedom-of-religion problem, and it’s getting worse all the time. Inside Russia proper, it is now illegal to have an unregistered/unlicensed church, and it is very hard to get the license for anyone not Russian Orthodox/Moscow patriarchate. Proselytizing is also illegal, and seminaries must also be licensed. Jehovah’s Witnesses have been treated the worst, but Baptists have also been sent to jail. Muslims have been arbitrarily defined as extemists, with no real way to challege this.
There’s another issue within Eastern Orthodoxy. Until recently, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church was subject to the Moscow Patriarchate (that would be Patriarch Kirill, “Putin’s Pet”, the guy with the $39,000 watch). But in January 2019 (after the attack on Crimea) the international leader of Eastern Orthodoxy, the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, declaired the Ukrainian Orthodox Church “autocephalous” (independent, self-governing). Moscow Patriarch Kirill (Putin’s pet) vehemently objected to this, to the extent that he more or less broke with the Ecumenical Patriarch, which is almost unthinkable.
According to Wikipedia, “religion in Ukraine” breaks down as follows: 28.7% Orthodox/Kiev Patriarchate, 9.9% Protestant or non-demoninational Christian, 10.2% Catholic (mostly Eastern rite Catholic), 23.4% Orthodox without further details, and 12.8% Orthodox/Moscow Patriarchate. Also 2.5% Muslim and 0.4% Jewish. Bottom line: Ukraine is far more religiously diverse than Russia. At least 48% of Ukrainians are Christians of a faith tradition likely to be suppressed by a Russian conquest. (And that probably includes quite a few of the “Orthodox- no details given” group, and certainly includes Muslims and Jews.)
Among all the things you explained, I think President Zelinskyy is saying to the 48% “your faith is honored and cherished here- if the Russians win, it won’t be”.
Thanks again!
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy:
This is the US list from Friday.
Gin & Tonic
@Andrya: Zelenskyy not Zelinskyy and Kyiv not Kiev, please.
Andrya
@Gin & Tonic: Sorry, spelling has never been my strong point. I’ll try to do better. (In 1964, I flunked out of the 8th grade national spelling bee by spelling “oxygen” “oxiegen”.
Ksmiami
@Martin: I want to find a way to help Ukraine sink the subs so they can’t send missiles to kill babies. And I want the western nations to blockade Russia’s trade routes… let them start feeling the ramifications on the home front. Break the country and seize their food and oil exports. The Russian nation is a ghastly and morally decrepit thugocracy. Until it’s defeated and reorganized, there will be no safe place.
@Martin: still not enough… send the planes
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: :-)
Dan B
@Andrya: Excellent background. Thank you!
terry chay
@Ksmiami: Not sure their subs are sending tactical cruise missles. Most or all of their sub fleet is strategic IIRC (nuclear ICBM). They send missles from ships like the Moskva but that is in the bottom of the sea. The amount of cruise missles they have is very depleted and the number of them that are ship based is small.
Martin
@Chetan Murthy: It’ll be interesting to learn what is being sent that we aren’t listing. Remember, they’re only listing stuff because they want us to know that we’re doing something. It’s not for Ukraine or Russia’s benefit.
Adam L Silverman
@BeautifulPlumage: That Adam guy is making me look bad!
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: Left over peeps. Pallets and pallets of left over peeps.
Another Scott
@Andrya: Thanks for that.
Cheers,
Scott.
Ksmiami
@terry chay: there’s a real part of me that wants Russia to understand what we are capable of and not just at the margins. Seems they’ve forgotten or been underestimating the west for some time.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Not as bad as what David Anderson has been doing to Richard Mayhew.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: That violates at least two Geneva Conventions!
BeautifulPlumage
@Adam L Silverman: just replying to myself in my own little loop, don’t mind me.
Another Scott
ICYMI, …
Wait for it…
Modern warfare is a terrible thing. (See the comments for more context.)
(via Oryx…)
Cheers,
Scott.
dmsilev
It was interesting to me that no only will two senior Cabinet members be visiting Kyiv tomorrow, but that all concerned we’re willing to pre-announce the visit. Unlike, say, Boris Johnson a few weeks ago. Seems like a public vote of confidence that Russia can’t and/or won’t do anything to disrupt said visit.
Alison Rose ???
Thank you as always, Adam. I find that more and more by the time I get to the end of these posts, I’m in tears. But that is as it should be.
Thank you also for providing content warnings for those of us who need them. I appreciate it.
randy khan
I just want to reiterate my thanks for these posts. They’re provide such a useful summary.
I do have a question, based on something a friend said at dinner (not necessarily more reliable than a Twitter checkmark person), which was that U.S. (and presumably NATO) stocks of the weapons and ammunition needed by the Ukrainians are beginning to be depleted and that could affect the tempo of resupply. I hadn’t seen that, but I am curious now if it’s a real concern.
Jay
@terry chay:
the Black Sea Fleet has 7 subs, ( 2 are in the Med and Turkey won’t let them return home). Of the 5 left, one is still in drydock.
All are “improved” Kilo diesel electric attack subs.
Their main armament is torpedos, but each can launch up to 4 Kalibir Cruise Missiles. They can also land platoon sized elements of Spetnaz.
Sanjeevs
Franklin Graham has never condemned the Russian invasion or their atrocities.
He always prays for a quick end to the war, something his mate in Moscow is also likely doing.
Another Scott
@randy khan: Your friend may be referring to this (I heard the comments on C-Span):
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Another Scott:
Russia used it in Aleppo, to destroy whole city blocks.
sdhays
@randy khan: I’ve seen it discussed as one reason to try transitioning over to NATO-compatible weapons whenever it’s practical.
Kent
@Sanjeevs: Of course not. Franklin Graham and his ilk are actually pro-Putin because he hates on gays with more authority and viciousness than they are allowed to do in the US anymore.
Seriously. I’m related to some of these types. That is their filter through which they view international affairs.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Russian Black See Fleet, 4th Independent Submarine Brigade
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet#4th_Independent_Submarine_Brigade
Adam L Silverman
@BeautifulPlumage: I’m just being a smartass. You are quite welcome,
sdhays
Adam – Do you have anything to add on Zelenskyy’s statement: “Russia has already fired most of its missile arsenal at Ukraine”?
Is this true? For example, say due to sanctions and sabotage, Russia is unable to build any more missiles – or too few too slowly to make a significant difference – in the near to medium term are they looking at running out or coming to the point where they can’t afford to launch any more because it would leave them defenseless?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Reading about stuff like that Russian missile attack on Odessa, do the Russian brass study war by playing World of Tanks? This is all so gamertard level stupid, viscous, petty and pointless. Even the whole thing about the Russians feeding one BTG group in at time in a battle to get chewed up is more like how a Gamer thinks “oh, got to have a fair fight” and then followed up basically griefing when they lose. You can almost hear the Russian generals screaming “Developer Ukrainian baise, there I shot your girlfriend faggot” after they lose a fight.
HRA
Thank you Adam for all you do to keep us up on the events in Ukraine. Goodnight!
Adam L Silverman
@sdhays: My understanding is they’ve started to ration use of Iskandar missiles. Whether the sanctions have an effect or not is something we’ll have to wait and see.
Medicine Man
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: They are trying to act on the flawed, politically motivated reasoning of their leadership in a system that is exceptionally top-down driven. A shit war, launched under flawed assumptions, with nigh unattainable goals, doggedly continued to preserve the aspirations of the top dog.
There are parallels you can draw to the situation the US armed forces were in with the Iraq war. Key differences (imo): the Decider in that war had a very different set of hangups, the US armed forces are 1000% more professional than the Russian military, and cultural/ethnic genocide were never their implicit mission. Trifling differences really.
TLDR: The Russian military is fighting hasty and stupid to earn Putin his achievement points (to continue your gametard metaphor).
Urza
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I found that way funnier than I should. So many gamers think they actually know battles based on the video game simulations which are so far off reality.
terry chay
New Yorker Q&A with Col. Joel Rayburn, former U.S. special envoy for Syria.
Dan B
@Ksmiami: Putin is a cornered animal. The test of “the West” may be how we respond if he uses so called Tactical nukes to punch a hole through the UA in the south or east. I suspect the Baltic countries and Poland may decide that an invasion of Ukraine is necessary. Germany seems like the old guys who believe they can work to temper Russia through treaties and trade will resist any escalation with great force.
terry chay
@Ksmiami: I’m of the opinion that the sanctions regime set up are going to be in place for years. They’ll realize what we are capable of when their government collapses again in 5 years without us firing a shot — an echo of what happened in the Cold War.
Ishiyama
Perhaps Putin expected that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan would be followed by the sort of collapse that ended the Soviet Union, so he calculated to capitalize on the supposed weakness and instability of defeated America.
Ishiyama
I would say, if that happens, an invasion of Russia becomes necessary.
terry chay
@Jay: Thanks for this correction! I assumed those were anti-ship, but apparently not. I searched Google News and found a single reference to them being used to fire Cruise Missiles in the Ukraine (1 day ago), but it was the Times of London which I actually block on my Apple News along with the Daily Mail, so I couldn’t/didn’t read it! :D
I looked up its cruise missile capability which they indeed have. The first test of one looks to be in January of this year in the Pacific from a sub out of St. Petersburg.
I am likely wrong, but testing the platform for the first time a month before the War sounds an awful like the T-14 Armata: something on paper, not realizable. At this point, I no longer believe any listed capability coming out of Russia, including these subs being able to deploy Spetnaz troops like the USN does Navy Seals.
Dan B
@Ishiyama: It’s hard to tell where to stop and a response in kind to Putin using nukes could go rapidly off the rails. If Putin is actually on late stage Parkinsons then he is unlikely to care.
RaflW
Just a bit like that hydro plant, it is petty of me, and likely to enrage that Vlad guy, but man would it be awesome if a gas heating boiler in a certain massively overdone coastal palace in the north Caucasus were to have a pilot go out, and then maybe some random spark from the no-doubt cheaply done oligarch-skimmed wiring were to, golly, spark or something.
Such a shame that would be.
terry chay
@sdhays: I read they were low on stocks of all precision-guided munitions already before the start of the war. It was a combination of using them in Syria and sanctions. The sanctions that caused it were the one in 2014, not the current set though.
They have workarounds — and Russia has been trying to build a local industry for that — but it sounds like the success has been limited and it is difficult for them to replenish them. The new set of sanctions may make that near impossible because typically the workaround involves a lot of dual-use technology (can be used for commercial purposes) and setting up a straw buyer. That option is closed.
It is still too early to see if the current set of sanctions will have that affect, and, in many ways, they’re not really designed to do that on any reasonable time scale — e.g. any timescale that will make a different to Ukraine unless this war drags on for years.
Aussie sheila
@terry chay:
Unless a way is found to cease demand for their fossil fuels, there will be no collapse. Europe alone is sending hundreds of millions of hard earned per day to pay for their oil. I am not optimistic about the sanctions making a dent in Putin’s ability to keep on international criming. Putin has no need to fear domestic backlash, and he will still be able to pay his ‘army’ and national police.
Stop those payments and he is stuffed. Otherwise? He will have to be defeated the old fashioned way.
Ishiyama
@Dan B: I didn’t mean to suggest using nukes. Take St. Petersburg, take Kaliningrad, put forces where Putin won’t nuke them.
terry chay
@Dan B: As in the New Yorker article I linked, escalating the war with tactical nukes would bring in NATO, and there is no evidence Russia (or Putin) is suicidal. (I’d argue that historically he is a bully who always punches down, if anything he is a coward deathly afraid for his own skin.)
terry chay
@Aussie sheila: We are talking about years, not months. While the amount in question is actually roughly $1 billion/day that Europe gives Russia, not just hundreds of millions, I don’t agree with your view because it is 1) assumes the status quo in oil and natural gas purchases by Europe will be forever unchanged, 2) assumes that Russia doesn’t have anything else to spend that money on (you know like feeding its people and paying the pensions of all their old-ass supporters who aren’t doing the dying), 3) assumes that Russia can magically spend that money correctly on its military in a way it has never done, 4) is a world where Russia through tight capital controls, foreign debt default, and outright theft in some cases (for example commercial jets) has been able to hide the impact of their sanctions on the populace in exchange for a longer term and much deeper hurt.
Already, I’d say the flight of human capital (e.g. tech workers) alone from Russia ends them as a world power by the next decade. This is a country whose only influx of people (through immigration or birth) are the poorest and uneducated (and also, in the case of birth, about 20 years from being productive), they’re losing their best and brightest at their height of their productive value to Georgia and Finland and everywhere else. (The ones that aren’t so bright are being killed off in Ukraine as we speak.)
Now if you said, five years is way too optimistic, then I’d say you have an argument. Fine. Ten years, twenty, or the forty it took the last time. I don’t care, but there is no way Russia’s economy will be hooked into the rest if the world again until there is a regime change, and that is a big deal.
(He definitely can and will act as the criminal he is. The issue is the ability to project that power. We found out that he can’t even project it more than 30 miles from the railyard supply depots in Russia and that was before the sanctions escalated.)
Dan B
@Ishiyama: I know you didn’t imply nukes. I have an ominous feeling about how cornered Putin is feeling as his clock ticks. I believe tactical nukes would be a huge test of NATO.
NATO toops in Volgorad and St. Petersburg would test Putin but he seems to be as ruthless as Stalin.
Jay
@terry chay:
the Kilo’s don’t deploy Spetnaz like the USN deploys Seals.
the subs surface, Spetnaz climbs into rubber boats and paddle ashore. At best a couple of platoons. The way it’s been done since WWI.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M-54_Kalibr
the key use of the Kilo’s is denial of shipping and intelligence gathering.
Dan B
@terry chay: I hope you are right about Putin being a coward.
trollhattan
@Another Scott:
Holy hell.
catfishncod
Question to Adam: the Twitter post on the Kuban hydro complex said in part “looks like an FSB operation but will wait for details.” I’m confused. FSB doing damage control? Coverup? Or (whisper softly) going rogue and doing sabotage?
West of the Rockies
I’ve said it before… personally, I’d welcome a lot more vids of the Russian army being blown to bits.
Chetan Murthy
@catfishncod: I have read speculation in a number of places that perhaps Putin is doing what he did when he came to power: false-flag FSB-mounted attacks on Russian infrastructure (blamed on UA), as a way to gin up outrage in the Russian population, preparatory to going scorched-earth (maybe nuke) against UA.
I don’t know anything though: just relating what I’ve read.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Adam, can you see if you can get some conformation this video were Putin’s right hand is shaking like Hitler in the bunker;
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1518024361223110656?s=20&t=RSlahL-Y3xDKmrWqWO–Jg
This real, just some odd ball habit of Putin’s or a fake?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
P K/D ratios are important. But yes, now the RA can brag to their friends they unlocked the Baby Killer on Steam. Gods….
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Urza: the thing is, a lot of Russian senior officers are supposed be FSB agents that were put in because of regime loyalty. So, they fake from what they get from computer games?
Ruckus ??
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I’ve been seeing docs for the last 4-5 yrs on the suspicion that I had Parkinsons. Now I’ve done a tremendous amount of research because well – Parkinsons. And I don’t see the kind of tremor that gave neurologists cause to think I might have this. Now tremors are not all the same and mine turned out to be an unrelated prescription, not Parkinsons but still, while I see what looks like some sort of movement disorder on the right side, hand and leg, it doesn’t look like what I’ve been told and read the movement looks like. If we are playing doctor I’d say stroke before Parkinsons given the leg, hand/arm and head, but I’d go with anythings possible. And add that if he’s had a stroke or has Parkinsons, I wonder if he’s going all out before he checks out or can’t function. You know go out a winner of a war, a winner of world’s current most horrible person.
Jinchi
Russia and Ukraine use the Cyrillic alphabet, but yeah it looks like Ukrainians spell it Одеса and Russians spell it Одесса.
Ksmiami
@Dan B: any use of nukes would demand a response in kind. And beyond NATO, individual states could act. Ie, we could destroy Putin’s navy in one day.
Ksmiami
@Chetan Murthy: the targets are too militarily impactful to be a false flag. Ie-They blew up Russian solvent capacity. A false flag would hit an apartment or some other civilian buildings to provoke outrage in the Vox populi and from what I read, Putin’s got the backing of most Russians to commit Ukrainian genocide. That’s why Russia must be smashed into pieces; the whole country is a fucking menace
bjacques
@Ksmiami: um, that NATO measured response…it’s a pretty good guide outside of war, especially in online discussions. We’ve got Russians here, definitely against the war, friends and relatives of Russians of various persuasions. Having eventually realized the nasty shit our own country has gotten up to, up to the present (sorry, Cuba), even when shitheads aren’t in charge, I’m a bit more sensitive about calling for someone’s country to be torn apart in revenge. Anyway, that’s what the Allies did to Germany after WWI, arguably in 1815, and look how that turned out.
The Pale Scot
@Omnes Omnibus:
That is bloody great, send more. It the UA can use the assault guns they will be getting from the EU to put fear into the bastards shelling homes that is fucking great
prostratedragon
@terry chay:“A bad army was ordered to do something stupid.”
The general’s disgust is almost palpable as he runs down the list of things done with inexcusable incompetence, in the service of an objective that should not have been pursued anyway.
Correction, Colonel.
Cameron
I thought this article was interesting. Very low-key, but I found it persuasive.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/the-revitalized-appeal-of-non-alignment/
bjacques
@Cameron: they’d better not look for sympathy or the front of the line in dealing with supply chain shortages.
wetzel
@Andrya: Thank you for that interesting and informative presentation of the religious demographics of Ukraine as well as the synopsis of the political impetus in Russia towards universal conformity in religious practice. I think this is a very important part of the story.
You mention that Jehovah’s witnesses are persecuted, but also Baptists, and there are laws against proselytizing. I have a unique perspective on this because an Aunt of mine (really a 2nd cousin, but this is a country family with branches growing up on adjacent acreage) who after great success in business was one of a number of donors to missionary projects to Russia in the 1990’s.
I have not studied this, but if what happened with rich missionary minded Methodists also happened with the other American Protestant denominations then Methodists, Baptists, Pentacostals etc. built a lot of churches in Russia in the 1990’s. Those churches may now be hostages of a sort. The interlocutions of protestant missionary efforts in Russia may be a route to understanding how Putin has managed to have successful influence within the American evangelical movement.
@Mike in NC and @Ted
I think you are not correct that Putin is an atheist. His Christianity is strange, though. You’d have to go to the 18th or 19th century in America to find the mythologies of Providence underlying sacred violence against “heathens’ by the someone like Benjamin Harrison, maybe. Putin has this in intellectualized form through the early 20th century White Russian fascist philosopher Ivan Ilyin. There is a bridge between Marxist philosophy and Ilyin’s Christo-fascism, which is Hegelian phenomenology. In how the individual consciousness dials into history dialectically, you can think of Hegel’s Phenomenology of the Spirit like a Labrador Retriever, more the basic dog, while Marxism is a Schnauzer Terrior and Ilyin’s philosophy is like a Lhasa Apsa you can’t even spell. It’s fascist, so the state actualizes in war, and purifies itself, in Ilyin’s philosophy.
The common Hegelian phenomenological grammar is convenient for an organization like FSB, which is purely scientific totalitarian. They believe their phenomenology encompasses the bourgeoisie, complacent in lacking historical consciousness. Having a philosophy gap, a phenomenology gap, we are outside of our OODA loop in the arts of black propaganda as the bourgeoisie always have been! Bourgeoisie do not understand that spectacular, revolutionary violence is phenomenological. It creates a new social reality.
One thing very interesting to read have been the from Winds of Change, a supposedly rebellious and unhappy FSB analyst. Whether they are authentic or it they are Goldstein’s Book, they are nevertheless indicative of this philosophical ground, as well as likely existentialism, post-structuralism, deconstruction, though maybe not Anglo-American analytical philosophy and game theory. Those are the tastes in the soup to me. Other chefs may disagree!
Currently living there is Putin’s court philosopher, Dugin or Dugen, who seems to have had the kind of psychotic break Hegelian philosophy can trigger if you mix it too much with geography. He’s internalized a kind of Emporer of Asia point of view and sees the origin of truth in the historogenesis of Russian Orthodoxy in the nation’s suffering itself.
So this fellow is whispering in Putin’s ear like Virgil telling Augustus he’s a descendant of Trojan nobility, that God is on his side, to take the country to war and to use the war to achieve the state of perfection in Ivan Ilyin’s Christo-fascism. It’s very important to understand that in Ilyin’s philosophy, the individual consciousness must absolutely come into alignment with the Christian state in war. There is the outer war against the heathens and the inner war to purge the state, towards which FSB already possesses efficacy through earlier experience in Soviet times.
Because both Marxist philosophy and Ivan Ilyins Christo-fascist philosophy are Hegelian, the same spectacles, the same investigatory mechanisms, psychometric, detention, transportation and other tools for disappearances can be applied in the coming purge in Russia.
Sorry to write another book with my morning coffee! It’s raising my blood pressure and constricting my LDA. I have a valve!! I’m turning into Ignatius Reilly!! I must go read my Boethius. Watch the Wheel of Time!
charon
@wetzel:
I had wondered when I saw that where those assertions originated, there are plenty of sites with agendas spreading bullshit
Putin’s mom was pretty devout, he apparently had a pretty religious upbringing.
zhena gogolia
@charon: He’s an atheist. I have no doubt. He believes in nothing but himself.
wetzel
@zhena gogolia: He’s an atheist. I have no doubt. He believes in nothing but himself.
Within the framework of Russian orthodox Christo-fascism, as God-emperor, Putin’s belief in himself is providential, heroic, and essential. He is a Confucian-Christian avatar. His will is publicly complied and privately conformed to within Russian society in the religious sense, or it will be after the state has perfected itself in war and purged itself. FSB is just as happy to cull for this goal as to achieve dictatorship of the proletariat! As long as the trains run on time and you don’t get caught wasting fuel, a Russian should be okay.
debbie
@wetzel:
Whatever. His posing as a worshipper at church has as much integrity as anything else he’s done, said, or thought.
zhena gogolia
@wetzel: I think you and I have different ideas of what “believing in God” means.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Interesting, and it would sure fit all the isolating Putin’s been doing. But the first question, is, is that fake or not? Because it sure as heck is close to Hitler in Downfall.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@wetzel: So the TLD is Putin’s belief is like Prosperity Christianity; no after life, dead is dead and the reward is here and now. Secular Calvinism. if you will.
That actually puts an interesting spin on the war crimes.
StringOnAStick
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I agree with Ruckus, it looks a lot more like stroke because his issues are with one side of his body. Parkinson’s is the entire body, not just one side.
charon
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I did not see any of that in what @wetzel: posted.
War crimes are typical of aggressive wars by dictatorships, nothing remarkable about Putin in that respect.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/russians-support-putin-invasion-popularity/629653/
LininalOwl
@wetzel: That was fascinating, thank you. (Well, the parts of it I could follow, not being sufficiently conversant with Hegel, or indeed much of modern and post-modern philosophy.)
Jinchi
Kind of like TFG sending the riot squad to clear out peaceful protesters with tear gas and batons all so he could have a 60 second photo op holding up a Bible in front of a church.
debbie
@Jinchi:
Exactly. Upside down at that.
Jinchi
You don’t think Putin would bomb an invasion force in occupied cities in Russia?
Ksmiami
@bjacques: restructured, rebuilt but it must be dramatically altered from its current state. This isn’t revenge; it’s a redesign to prevent Russia from menacing the world in the future.
wetzel
@LininalOwl: Thank you for saying that. You made my day.
wetzel
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: No. That’s not it, exactly. There’s orthodox the after-life.
Here is one of Ivan Ilyin’s book titles: Hegel’s philosophy as a doctrine of the concreteness of God and man. So there is a common kind of concrete eschatology with prosperity gospel type theologies, but its on the plane of history and political power, not individual prosperity.
Other Ilyin book titles are Resistance to Evil By Force, The Way of Spiritual Revival, Foundations of Struggle for the National Russia and the Basis of Christian Culture Within the phenomenological historical consciousness one sees signs within plain factitious experience. Putin’s authority to govern has a similar theological and philosophical underpinnings in this new Russian orthodoxy as Papal infallibility. Putin rules by divine right. This is the new Russian orthodox religion.
For Protestantism, that is not a new covenant way of thinking, and so it sounds like delusions of reference or disordered thinking. Not something you want to say about somebody else’s religious experience. If it’s some dumbass megachurch, that’s one thing. Live and let live. But this new Russian orthodox religion is marshalling an army to kill us all, and it is trying to destroy our culture, so that we will turn Christo-fascist too.
Right now I am sure Russian active measures are percolating dreams of genocide against LGBT people in the Q-anon world. Q-anon has perfected the presentation of signs and portents in a way the rational, prosaic mind associates with the delusions of reference in schizophrenia or bipolar disorder, so that those who are prone to disordered thoughts (2-3% of the population) can be encouraged along practically any path by mimicry of prophetic revelation.
There is a Christian religious mask to Russian fascism, but the Christianity is an ideological puppet. It is like a social persona for the scientific totalitarian framework, the same way Newt Gingrich’s “Christianity” seems to operate here at home for him. Gingrich claims to be a Christian, but the GOPAC Memo shows an approach to language As a Mechanism of Control which is not Christian because it violates the dignity of individual human consciousness. With Russia, the important thing to understand is that the unconsciousness of Soviet power has found a pathway to reconstitute itself in genocide. The Christian mask it has taken on is dangerous. It provides a turn-key model for American fascism.
wetzel
@wetzel: an approach to language As a Mechanism of Control which is not Christian because it violates the dignity of individual human consciousness.
I mean that the dignity of individual human consciousness is sacred in the anthropological or ecumenical sense. It is self-evident. Heidegger showed you can’t understand how a person is a metaphor for themselves, how they self-symbolize towards death, their good name, unless you understood the meaning of Being. so I think Language as a Mechanism of Control is contradictory to the tenor of religious experience by acting with a deceptive kind of imitation of God, a false truth effect through cognitive priming. That’s just how I feel about it. Fuck Newt Gingrich.
You have been a very bad boy, Newt!
As Jimmy Carter would say, repent!!!!
Bill Arnold
@wetzel:
Thanks for that; interesting.
Re
I think that you underestimate the raw talent in the West (and the rest of not-Russia) in this regard. A real question is whether enough such talent is in the analytical teams advising political decision makers, though they are not the only actors. Propaganda is very low cost, particularly if one knows how structure and time and nudge it so that it is self-amplifying.
Bill Arnold
@wetzel:
charon
@wetzel:
That is really interesting, thanks.
I am a bit familiar with Aleksandr Dugin’s thinking from reading a very lengthy book review of his major book. Ivan Ilyin, not so much.
Do you have any links to a good description of Ilyin’s thoughts?
wetzel
@Bill Arnold: Biden’s team has been on point, for sure. I think game theory and the analytical tools in Western policy are equal in some ways in driving events with efficacy.
I think the two sides are mutually incomprehensible, though. I think the West misses that if Russia can reconstitute scientific totalitarianism within its own borders, and conduct a purge, then Putin will have won his war no matter what happens in Ukraine.
I also think the West can be brought to think we are winning, but their intention is actually to make us fascist through accommodation to violent spectacle. I believe if the GOP ever wins the Presidency again, we will be taken into fake war with Russia.
I don’t think Western analysts understand how violent catastrophe creates new social reality. They don’t understand the transformation in cognitive development we will be taken through to convert us into totalitarian subjects under terror too, but Russia does understand, and they are employing genocide in Ukraine already to accommodate not only their own population to inhumanity, but us too.
If Trumpism can provide a path for America to join China and Russia in scientific totalitarianism, then their own governments will be permanently stable, especially if we are in a state of permanent war.
I think the our big advantage is the law. Both at home with the Jan 6 Commission and the DOJ and in the Hague.
charon
@charon:
Never mind, found this with google:
https://www.hacusa.org/userfiles/file/inthepress/2018/April/NYRB_040518_God_Is_a_Russian_by_Timothy_Snyder.pdf
charon
https://www.openculture.com/2018/06/an-introduction-to-ivan-ilyin.html
Inspiration and ideas for American and European conservatism.