Let’s begin tonight with President Zelenskyy’s remarks to Ukraine on Easter. Here’s the video with English subtitles, the transcript with my emphases follows it:
Great people of great Ukraine!
Today is a great holiday. And I’m in a great place. The Great St. Sophia Cathedral. In the cathedral, which was founded a thousand years ago, on the field of the sacred battle where the army of Kyivan Rus’-Ukraine defeated the Pechenegs. In the cathedral, which was not destroyed by the Horde invasion or the Nazi occupation, which withstood in spite of everything!
Today we all believe in a new victory for Ukraine. And we are all convinced that we will not be destroyed by any horde or evil.
We are enduring dark times. And on this bright day, most of us are not in bright clothes. But we are fighting for a bright idea. On the bright side. And the truth, people, the Lord and the holy heavenly light are on our side. The power of the patron saint of the human race – Oranta. She is above me. She is above us all.
The unshakable pillar of the Church of Christ, the unbreakable wall of the main stronghold – Kyiv, the Unbreakable Wall of the State. As long as there is Oranta, there is Sophia, and Kyiv stands with her, and the whole of Ukraine stands with them!
Above the image of Oranta are the words from the Psalms: “God dwells in that city; it cannot be destroyed. From the very break of day, God will protect it.” On this Great Day, we all believe that our dawn is coming soon.
Oranta in Latin means “one who prays”. We have all been praying for the last two months. And in the Resurrection of Christ, which symbolizes the great victory of life over death, each of us asks the Lord for one thing. And speaks the same words to heaven. The words of a great and united prayer.
Great and Only God! Save our Ukraine!
Protect those who protect us! Heaven, protect those who defend the native land. Strengthen the will of those who protect us from captivity. Save those who save Ukraine. These are our military, national guards, border guards, our territorial defense, intelligence. These and all our other warriors of light.
Help those who help them. These are volunteers and all people who care. From Ukraine and around the world. Give strength to all who give all their strength. May everyone who seeks always find. May everyone who is on the road always overcome it. And may everyone who does everything possible to save Ukraine never lose faith that everything is possible.
Save the lives of those who save the lives of others. These are all our medics. Our firefighters, rescuers, sappers. May the victory of life be a symbol not only of this holiday. May life win the battle against death every day.
Take care of our mothers. Give endurance to those who are waiting for a son or daughter from the war. Give fortitude to those who, unfortunately, have lost their children on the frontline. Help those who have lost their children in peaceful cities and villages where Russia has brought death to overcome unbearable pain.
And give good health to all our mothers and all our grandmothers for many more years. To see their loved ones. To see peace and victory. To see justice. And the happy old age that the invaders are trying to steal from them. And instead of knitting scarves and sweaters for their grandchildren, today they weave camouflage nets. So give many years of peaceful life to them.
And to our fathers. And to our grandfathers. Who once told their grandchildren about the war, and today send grandchildren to the war. Our fathers and our grandfathers built this country. Today they see it being destroyed. Let them see how our land will be liberated and rebuilt. And give us strength to do it.
Take care of all our children. Give every boy and every girl a happy youth, maturity and old age, which will allow at least a little to get rid of the memories of their terrible childhood during the war. Not children’s, scary games that they were forced to play. Hide and seek, but in the basement, from the bombs. Running, but from the gunshots. Travel, but because of the loss of home, fleeing the war.
Save all Ukrainians! We did not attack anyone, so give us protection. We have never destroyed other nations, so do not let anyone destroy us. We did not seize other people’s lands, so do not let anyone seize ours.
Save Ukraine! Its right and left banks – at a time when we are being viciously beaten on both right and left cheeks. At the end of winter, spring did not come to us. Severe cold was brought to our house. At dawn we were brought opaque darkness.
We believe, God, that in your judgment you will not forget them all. All those who have forgotten all your commandments.
You will not forget about Bucha, Irpin, Borodyanka, Hostomel. All those who survived brutal crimes. Give them and all our land human happiness.
You will not forget about Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, Izyum, Kramatorsk and Volnovakha, Popasna. All other towns and villages that hear the terrible explosions. Let them and all of us hear the fireworks of victory.
You will not forget about Mariupol and its heroic defenders. One can destroy the walls, but can’t destroy the foundation on which the morale stands. The morale of our warriors. The morale of the whole country.
We see terrible scenes of war. Let us see a happy picture of peace.
We are going through very difficult ordeals. Let us reach a just end on this path – the beginning of a happy life and prosperity of Ukraine!
Our hearts are full of fierce fury. Our souls are full of fierce hatred for the invaders and all that they have done. Don’t let fury destroy us from within. Turn it into our accomplishments from the outside. Turn it into a force of good to defeat the forces of evil.
Save us from strife and division. Don’t let us lose unity.
Strengthen our will and our spirit. Don’t let us lose ourselves. Don’t let us lose our longing for freedom. Therefore, do not let us lose our zeal for a righteous struggle. Do not let us lose hope of victory and self-esteem, and therefore our freedom. And therefore Ukraine. And therefore faith.
Dear Ukrainians!
Last year we celebrated Easter at home because of the pandemic. This year we also celebrate the Resurrection of Christ not as we used to. Because of another virus. Because of the plague called war.
Both last year’s and the current threat are united by one thing – nothing can defeat Ukraine.
The great holiday today gives us great hope and unwavering faith that light will overcome darkness, good will overcome evil, life will overcome death, and therefore Ukraine will surely win!
And on Easter, we ask God for great grace to make our great dream come true – this is another great day – the day when great peace will come to Ukraine. And with it – eternal harmony and prosperity.
With faith and confidence in this – I congratulate all of you on Easter.
Take care of yourselves. Take care of your loved ones. Take care of Ukraine!
Christ is Risen!
He is Risen Indeed.
As I’ve noted the last two nights, this is not how Jews talk to their Christian friends on or about Easter. President Zelenskyy is once again leaning heavily into the religious themes of the day, themes which are recognizable in the observance of the majority of his citizenry, to motivate them. It is, again, a master class in strategic communication.
Here is today’s operational update from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (emphasis mine):
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on April 24, 2022
The sixtieth day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues. A russian federation continues its full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine.
russian enemy is advancing in the Eastern Operational Zone to defeat the Joint Forces, establish full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and secure a land route to the temporarily occupied Crimea.
In the Volyn and Polissya directions, the enemy did not take active action. Up to seven armed battalions of belarusians continue to carry out tasks to cover the Ukrainian-belarusian border in Brest and Gomel regions. Exports of units of the Eastern Military District, mostly damaged, from the territory of the Republic of belarus to the russian federation of Armaments and Military Equipment continue through Gomel in the direction of Bryansk.
In the Seversky direction, the FSS border service of the russian federation continues to provide enhanced protection of the Ukrainian-russian border in the Bryansk and Kursk regions.
Regrouping of units of the Central Military District from the areas of recovery of combat readiness to the eastern regions of Ukraine continues. From Kursk to Belgorod region, russian enemy plans to move an anti-aircraft gun division from the 14th Air Force and Air Defenсe.
In the Slobozhansky direction, weapons and military equipment of russian enemy are being transferred to the Kupyansk district. russian occupiers continue to partially block the city of Kharkiv, trying to carry out fire damage to units of our troops and critical infrastructure.
There is an intensification of offensive and assault actions of russian enemy units in the areas of Pashkove, Dovgenke and Velyka Komyshuvakha. The enemy was unsuccessful, suffered losses and was forced to retreat to previously occupied frontiers.
In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, russian enemy is building up its command and control system and air defence. Continues to fire on the positions of our troops from mortars, artillery and rocket-propelled grenade launchers along the entire line of contact. Inflicts air strikes on operational and tactical aircraft.
In the Severodonetsk direction, russian enemy tried to carry out assault operations in the direction of the ettlements of Lyman and Yatskivka, but was unsuccessful. russian occupiers established control over part of the village of Zarichne. The enemy tried to gain a foothold in the western, northwestern and eastern parts of Rubizhne, but failed. He began advancing in the directions of the settlements of Orikhove and Nyzhne.
In the Popasna direction, the occupying forces tried to gain a foothold on the achieved frontiers. russian enemy also regrouped and replenished its personnel and ammunition and prepared for further assaults.
In the Kurakhiv direction, with the support of artillery, the enemy attempted an offensive in the direction of the settlements of Novomykhailivka and Marinka. He was not successful.
In the Mariupol direction, russian invaders continued to fire and fight in the Azovstal area. The enemy inflicted air strikes on certain objects of civilian infrastructure. The occupiers carried out assault operations in the direction of the settlement of Vremivka, suffered losses and retreated to previously occupied positions.
In the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, the Russian occupiers are introducing measures restricting the rights and freedoms of civilians, including freedom of movement.
Ukrainian defenders hold the defense and inflict heavy losses on the russian enemy.
Let’s win together! Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s today’s British MOD assessment:
And here’s their map for today:
You can see the Russian movement to attack and try to encircle the Ukrainian Joint Force Operation with the Izium, Central, and Southern Russian Military District forces moving to contact from the east and the north.
Despite today being Orthodox Easter, the Russians continued to shell and bombard as much of Ukraine as they could.
Much more after the jump.
There’s a lot of new video out of the Azovstal complex in Mariupol that has come out over the past several days. I’ve posted several of them. Here’s a couple of new ones. Unfortunately they don’t have English subtitles, but I think you’ll get the gist.
Azov Regiment's deputy commander says that #Russia continues to drop air bombs on #Azovstal today, ship artillery is striking, and infantry are trying to storm the steel plant, where servicemen and civilians are sheltering.
On Happy Easter, Kalyna called for reflection on values. pic.twitter.com/o1r2vIfrKW— Alexander Khrebet/Олександр Хребет (@AlexKhrebet) April 24, 2022
I just spoke with Sergii Volyna, one of the commanders of the defenders of #Mariupol. He calls on all international leaders to pay attention to Mariupol. They keep holding on but the situation worsens every day. The world must know!#SaveMariupol #Ukrainehttps://t.co/onuhSfYH3E
— Oleksiy Goncharenko (@GoncharenkoUa) April 24, 2022
Here’s video of the fortified tunnels and catacombs under Odesa, which are being used as bomb shelters:
These tunnels under the Ukrainian port city of Odesa were once used by WWII resistance fighters as a hideout from the Nazis. Now it's where residents come to escape intensifying Russian airstrikes. pic.twitter.com/JlgPvujoof
— DW News (@dwnews) April 24, 2022
I think the consensus from everybody to the following information is that Russia is planning to use chemical, biological, radiological, and/or nuclear (CBRN) weapons in Ukraine:
Russia has asked Canada to urge the US not to use WMDs in Ukraine
The Russian Ministry of Defence laid out scenarios yesterday in which the US would use chemical, biological and nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and frame Russia
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) April 24, 2022
Ugh!
The Ukrainians have an appreciation for the classics!
i, uhh https://t.co/sKg16ZgUUL
— matthew. (@iAmTheWarax) April 23, 2022
That is a museum piece Hiram Maxim machine gun.
This is an excellent thread by a Russian speaking Ukrainian journalist from the eastern part of Ukraine. You’ve seen him referenced before in these updates.
“ Russians understood the Russian World as drunken cossacks guarding check points in Donetsk who robbed any passing car. The Russian World was torture chambers in cellars where those cossacks &local so-called special forces tormented people with electric shock” @bbcworldservice
— Albana Kasapi (@AlbanaKasapi) April 24, 2022
- Aseyev, a Donetsk native, covered events in Eastern Ukraine as they unfolded until one day in 2017 when he was arrested by Russian-backed separatists because of his work. He was kept for 2.5 years in detention 3 #Weekend @bbcworldservice
- “You can’t possibly describe (the place i was kept) as a prison. It was a modern concentration camp known as Izolyatsia…. They tortured people. I was also subjected to electric shock treatment.” 4 Aseyev interview On #Weekend @bbcworldservice
- Aseyev was released in 2019 as part of a prisoner exhange. He has documented his time in captivity in a memoir published in 2020, “The Torture Camp on Paradise Street.” He has now joined Ukraine’s Territorial Defence in Kyiv. 5 #Weekend @bbcworldservice
- ‘Even with my experience I wasn’t prepared for what I saw when we went into Bucha… I witnessed torture happening every day but that was torturing the living. In Bucha I saw cruelty that was even more brutal”6 #Weekend @bbcworldservice
- Speaking of offensive in the East, Aseyev says: “I think the Russians are in a much weaker position than Ukrainian forces…The main problem for the Ukrainian army is not the Russian soldiers but their rockets & planes…which is why we need help from the West.” 7 @bbcworldservice
- Aseyev says Ukraine will not hand over territory to Russia, but he adds: “So long as the current regime is still in power in Russia, not just Putin but all the people around him, this conflict will continue and we won’t be able to return anything to Ukraine.” 8 #Weekend
- Interview with Ukrainian journalist and writer Stanislav Aseyev in full
Here’s an interesting thread showing the differences in how German and Italian leadership are responding to Putin’s reinvasion of Ukraine:
Scholz and Draghi gave major interviews less than 1w apart to @corriere & @derspiegel.
Contexts differ, deliverables may not be radically apart. But in a war, narratives matter.
Instructive to compare answers on ia: arming Ukr, energy dependence, and econ fallout of war. 1/— Fabrizio Tassinari (@Fatassinari) April 24, 2022
- On arming Ukr: Scholz: “Bundeswehr’s options… are largely exhausted… We are now helping the Ukr government to procure arms… [as] agreed to by our allies.” Draghi: “we need to help Ukr directly… Not doing would equal to tell them: surrender, accept slavery and submission” 2/
- On energy dependence: S: “Problem is not that there are 2,3, or 4 pipelines – it’s that they all come from Ru… we should have diversified imports much earlier.“ D: “Econ dependence must not become pol subjection. We must diversify energy sources & find new suppliers.” 3/
- On the war’s economic fallout: Scholz: “we want to avoid a dramatic econ crisis, the loss of millions of jobs and of factories that would never open again.” Draghi: “Peace is worth making sacrifices…. Peace is the most important value, irrespective of the sacrifice.” /END
Your semi daily Patron:
Ukrainian dog Patron congratulates everyone on Easter ?
Photo: patron_dsds / Instagram pic.twitter.com/HUtjiwu4Gp
— The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) April 24, 2022
Your semi daily Bayraktar!
This is Bayraktar. He was buried after a round of shelling. He’s doing okay, but him and his grandpa were forced to flee after their home was destroyed. Our partner @Trupanion organized ways you can help the pets and people of Ukraine below. 14/10 for allhttps://t.co/dyU6kNLRJe pic.twitter.com/7CdG8iSoin
— WeRateDogs® (@dog_rates) April 22, 2022
Who is a very lucky Bayraktar? You are!!!!!
And we’ll finish with Chef Jose Andres:
On this Easter in Ukraine…I want to introduce you to my new friend Ina! She’s from Mariupol & her parents & brother are still there. She can’t contact them but they can sometimes call out. Their building is one of few left standing & its dangerous to leave. Listen to her story… pic.twitter.com/o1urpiTZca
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 24, 2022
Open thread!
Mallard Filmore
I am confused about the title. Isn’t the war entering its third month?
Started late February, through all March, now closing on the end of April.
dmsilev
Seems to still be working just fine.
CCL
Thanks, Adam.
Steve in the ATL
@Mallard Filmore: were you one of the people telling everyone not to enjoy New Year’s Eve 1999 but to wait to celebrate a year later?
debbie
@Steve in the ATL:
?
Mallard Filmore
@Steve in the ATL: You mean like floor one is up one flight of stairs?
debbie
I just love the care taken for pets.
Ishiyama
@Steve in the ATL: I had good fun 12/31/2000.
Counterfacual
Lots of reports of two oil depots on fire in Bryansk, Russia (about 100 km from the Ukrainian border)
Villago Delenda Est
Third month. And they’ve given up on Kyiv. Rumor has it that they’re working a “false flag” nuke pop. If they dare to do such a thing…well, welcome to a rerun of Able Archer.
sdhays
Apparently there’s a big fire at an oil facility in Bryansk, Russia and there are major explosions at a nearby missile base. The fight inside Russia seems to be intensifying, whoever is responsible.
Mallard Filmore
@sdhays: Links to twitter reports are in this DemocraticUnderground post:
Large fire at Russian oil depot north of Ukrainian border, unconfirmed reports say
Villago Delenda Est
@sdhays: The pipeline to Germany and the Adriatic goes through that plant, or nearby?
Calouste
There are two things on fire in Bryansk, Russia, not too far from the border with Ukraine. One of them is an oil refinery and/or depot, the other might be a military storage yard of some kind.
Also, the death toll of the fire at the missile research institue is now up to 17.
Carlo Graziani
Draghi is the unusual Italian politician that I get to be a bit proud of.
Another Scott
@Mallard Filmore:
(via CherylRofer)
Cheers,
Scott.
dmsilev
@Villago Delenda Est:
I have to wonder at the reliability of such a rumor. Provenance aside, how would that even work? Ukraine gave up all of its nuclear weapons years ago, so no one would believe a Russian claim that they got attacked with same. Ok, nobody except for the Glenn Greenwalds of the world.
Alison Rose ???
Gotta admit, as a Jew it’s a touch weird to hear another Jew saying “Christ is risen” but I understand why he’s saying it and what it means.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Villago Delenda Est
@dmsilev: Vlad is getting desperate. I can smell it against the prevailing winds.
Kattails
@sdhays: excellent. I hope they can keep up the good work, and keep their heads.
Villago Delenda Est
Bayraktar and grandpa are the spirit of Ukraine.
Medicine Man
Clench factor aside, it’d almost be worth Putin launching a bog-stupid nuclear false flag. Surest way to know the little bastard would be dead before the end of the year.
dmsilev
@Alison Rose ???:
Passover is done with, so leavened Saviors are ok now…
sdhays
@dmsilev: I really can’t fathom why Putin would blow up actual critical infrastructure as a pretext when worthless (to him) Russian civilians are available. That’s his usual go-to.
sdhays
@Medicine Man: No.
Calouste
@dmsilev: I don’t think Glenn Greenwald would believe that claim, but he would defend it.
Another Scott
Thanks for all you do, Adam.
A bit of levity, involving another Adam.
I’d watch that!
Cheers,
Scott.
debbie
@dmsilev:
I’d like to think Justin Trudeau has pointed this out to Putin.
Carlo Graziani
I still think that if they were going to use a nuke, or battlefield nerve agents, they would have done so already. They have no moral brakes, and plenty of incentives to ramp up the intimidation. If they haven’t done so, it’s because they are scared of something.
I’ve said what I think they are scared of in previous threads. I think that battlefield NBC use is the line that sets off NATO direct intervention in the war. There has to be some such policy line, and that one makes sense—the worst has already happened. I believe that the NSC made that determination early, and communicated it to the Russians. Who now don’t want to see the USAF show up and shut down their “special military operation”.
Can’t cite a single speck of evidence for this theory. Other than the fact that the Russians have been oddly restrained about nukes, to say nothing about nerve agents.
Medicine Man
I don’t really believe they’re willing to use NBC weapons either, if only due to the law of unintended consequences. He could easily cross that line and find the ambiguity was doing more work for him than the weapons themselves.
Villago Delenda Est
@Carlo Graziani: “Tactical” nukes have always been a threshold that the nuclear powers have recognized is the gateway to annihilation. The distinction was there for MAD, but no one actually believed that declaring a nuke “tactical” would prevent the nuking of Moscow or DC.
Medicine Man
@sdhays: I actually agree. I don’t think he’ll give up the leverage of “the threat” of NBC usage this recklessly. I call it bog-stupid because such an act would very likely accomplish the opposite of what he’d like.
cain
I got to say Michael Cohen’s rant on Media Touch – is pretty awesome.
Also thanks for this update, Adam -I hope that they can continue to resist.
Another Scott
@Carlo Graziani: I’m sure there have been lots of back-channel comms with the Russian military from the Pentagon (remember Milley talking to his Chinese counterpart, saying that there is no way there would be a sneak US nuclear attack on China). But a couple more things may be going on, also too:
To be clear, I have no inside information. It’s just that these things seem obvious to me, and would indicate that any decision to cross the NBC (nuclear, biological, chemical) line would have all sorts of unknown ramifications for VVP, even before any attempt to carry the orders out were taken.
Cheers,
Scott.
Villago Delenda Est
@Another Scott: I concur. VVP is, however, increasingly rattled.
cain
I suspect that htey have no idea their nuclear weapons even work and that launching one might instead blow themselves up.
YY_Sima Qian
Adam, is the attempt to reduce the Azovstal pocket on hold (as was suggested a few days ago), or has Putin changed his mind, or are we seeing continued attacks as a siege tactic to apply pressure on defenders in hope they eventually give up?
Kent
Maybe I’m optimistic, but I gotta think using nukes is a red line even Putin isn’t going to cross. Not so much because it might invite nuclear retaliation from NATO. But because it would almost certainly isolate him far more than he is today. Can India and Russia and other “non-aligned” countries around the world still welcome trade with a Russia that is flinging nuclear weapons at a neighbor? The pressure on those countries would be absolutely WHITE HOT to cut off all trade, including oil. And if you think Germany is waffling now about buying Russian gas, imagine if Russia starts using Nukes. I would expect the German government to fall in a heartbeat if they keep on with business as usual. The German population is especially anti-Nuke.
That is a door once opened you can no longer close. And nuclear technology is getting easier and easier. Does Russia want to invite Ukrainian extremists to drive a nuke into the center of Moscow in the back of a van and set it off?
FlyingToaster
Bryansk is not that close to Ukraine (unlike Belgorod), and there was a previous attempt at claiming that Ukraine had attacked a residential neighborhood in Bryansk (which everyone was like, dude, nope, even the Ghost of Kyiv isn’t that good).
There are a couple of what look like oil storage areas on either side of the railway (both with sidings). But this isn’t a major supply depot for the forces in Ukraine. Those are Kursk, Belgorod, and Rostov.
I’d bet that this is plain old sabotage.
Adam L Silverman
@Mallard Filmore: This is what happens when you start writing “finishes its second month and switch to “enters its third month”. I’ve fixed it.
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: Properly maintained they are built to last.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: My understanding from the reporting is that regular Russian ground forces were pulled out and headed towards the Donbas. Aerial bombardment has continued and I think Kadyrov’s Chechens are still trying to fight the Ukrainians on the ground.
Villago Delenda Est
Back in those fabulous 70s, a wargame company called SPI published a wargame called Würzberg, about a possible battle near that city between the Soviets and NATO. There was an option to use tactical nukes (Kernwaffen) and it riled a lot of Germans up seriously.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to rack out. Everyone have a great night.
Villago Delenda Est
Night Adam, thanks again for your daily briefings!
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: That makes sense. Thanks! Makes me wonder how Kadyrov & LNR/DNR feel about being used as cannon fodder to feed into the meat grinder in a tragic side show. If the power of Moscow weakens sufficiently, more Chechens (& possibly some of the other Muslim peoples of the Caucuses) might want to pick up the flame of self-determination again.
Even if Putin’s regime survives, he may well have to rely far more on Kadyrov & the likes to maintain his rule. Varangian Guard, anyone?
terry chay
Part 2 of Perun’s analysis of long term Ukraine v. Russia war posted 2 days ago.
Jackie
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks again for your updates. Good night and looking forward to your (hopefully) continued mostly good updates.
Omnes Omnibus
“Whatever happens, we have got
The Maxim gun, and they have not.”
– Hilaire Belloc
Pappenheimer
@Villago Delenda Est: “To simulate the use of strategic nuclear weapons, simply soak the map in lighter fluid and apply match.”
Villago Delenda Est
@Pappenheimer: Oh, you’ve played SPI’s WWIII too!
Alison Rose ???
@dmsilev: I LOL’d
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
According to Azov, the 36th Marine Battalion, and civilians, RU assaults are continuing.
piratedan
a couple of observations…
Russia can afford to stand off and throw punches from long distance as long as the ordnance holds out and has plenty of cannon fodder to throw into the abattoir from client states and the hinterlands as their economy has turned to shit and actual jobs are probably in short supply. The issue becomes just how much in the way of functional munitions are there and how quickly they can be replenished.
Ukraine may lack the troops and the weapons needed to break thru and still cover what they need to cover, considering an additional front opening up with Moldova or Belarus, so they have to move with a certain cautiousness and would surely enjoy actual NATO boots on the ground.
Naturally the concern is if there are NATO boots on the ground, how much larger does the theatre become, and what kind of expansion are we likely to see, more air, naval, chemical, informational, nuclear options then have to be considered and planned for.. While I believe that NATO could expel Russia from Ukraine, loads of potential repercussions follow, what of the Chinese? Does Russia flow right into a new civil war or do they become increasingly marginalized? Do we see more Fascist movements reacting to a Putin defeat with further entrenchments?
If there are no NATO boots on the ground and we leave it up to Ukraine to clear its own borders, I fear that the factors of attrition, expansion and a global fight against Fascism is on the not so distant horizon.
Pappenheimer
@Villago Delenda Est: Yep. Wargamers and generals both hate planning for nukes because war becomes a “horrible spasm,” to quote some recently briefed new US Sec’y Def back in the 50’s (name escapes me). Might as well be playing Russian Roulette with hand grenades.
I thought we were done with all that, and damn Putin to be one bunk down from Stalin for bringing it back.
Calouste
@Villago Delenda Est: If I understood a comment Omnes made here a few weeks ago, if Russia uses nukes in the current situation, they wouldn’t really be tactical nukes, however small they are. The doctrine of tactical nukes was that you throw them at an attacking army so that get destroyed, and you turn the area that is nukes in a neutral wasteland that they can no longer stage attacks from. You can’t use it yourself either for the near future, but you’re on the defensive, so that’s not your main concern. None of these concerns about apply to Russia in the current situation, and any use of nukes by them would be strategic, i.e. to terrorize Ukraine into surrender.
JoyceH
@Pappenheimer: Robert McNamara – “General, you don’t have a war plan! All you have is a kind of horrible spasm!”
Villago Delenda Est
@Calouste: Omnes isn’t wrong, but that’s US doctrine. The thing is, once you pop a nuke, no matter what the circumstances, it’s a nuke. Which leads to escalation. Russia’s use would be, as Omnes said, a strategic application no matter what the yield of the weapon. That also changes the calculus.
Calouste
@Calouste: One thing I just realized about the fire at the missile research institute is that the Russians reported today that they found another 10 dead, but there were no mentions in previous reports of any people missing. So either they didn’t care to mention that, or they didn’t keep track of who was in that facility at any given time, or they didn’t bother to check up on people who should have been there.
Villago Delenda Est
@piratedan: The Russian army is artillery based. Which means standoff indirect fire weapons…for doing things like shelling Mariupol. They can’t hold ground on the offensive, because they’re losing tanks and infantry left and right. But Ukraine doesn’t have the right mix of forces to push them out, either.
Ruckus ??
@Villago Delenda Est:
Vlad is getting desperate.
Yes he is. His planned 3 or 4 day romp in Ukraine didn’t work out quite like all his lackeys told him it would. And most of the rest of the world is basically telling him to go fuck himself. Yes he’s destroying Ukraine, but he’s not winning, he’s not gaining the world dominance he desires and his health seems to be taking a turn. Is that better or worse? I think it seems not better for him, it seems better for the rest of the world. May it get worse much faster…..
Ruckus ??
@Carlo Graziani:
I’d like to think you are right.
But desperation can make idiot madmen do idiot things. I’m hoping that the russian SFB can see there are some limits for everyone. I’m not holding my breath. But he’s seen that a large part of the world is for sure not on his side. He’s desperate, he’s insane – or at least acting like it, but I’m only counting my chickens when this is over. Hopefully we’ll have chickens and all those fingers to count them with.
Andrya
Adam, as always, thanks for doing this.
The Samuel Ramani text absolutely terrified me. The only way that I can understand this is that the Russian government is at least considering using nukes and blaming it on the US. Please tell me that I am overreacting!
Jay
@Andrya:
Russia has threatened to use nukes, since the start of the Yugoslavian Civil War.
They have not used nukes.
They are well aware that standard NATO doctrine is that any use of nukes is a full nuclear war.
They are however, used to threats, leading to negotiations and compromise.
Andrya
@Jay: I totally hope you are right.
bjacques
I can’t even imagine a nuke being even tactically useful for Russia. Anywhere they dropped one the fallout would blow over Russia, Belarus, or even (if Odesa) into Transnistria, if weather reports are accurate. And what good is a land bridge if even your cannonfodder won’t cross the irradiated chunk of it? And Putin must know that’s a red line even for his most loyal cronies and guards.
Instead of spinning “what-ifs” to worry about Putin (Huylo) using nukes, I might as well spin them for the opposite, especially since I’m no expert and not paid to do either.
Egorelick
I can’t imagine that the use of nukes is anything but a death sentence for Putin. How many others would die would be the only question.
Martin
@Counterfacual: I’ve read that one is a depot and one is a refinery.
Geminid
Politico put up an article 2 hours ago about arms shipments to Ukraine http:/politico/heavyweaponryflowsintoUkraine. The article discusses what weapons are being supplied and how urgently they are needed for the fight in Eastern Ukraine
Well, the link I tried to provide won’t work. The article is easily found, though.
wetzel
@sdhays:
Good morning, everybody. Thanks, Adam.
I’ve been following Josh Marshall’s lists of Ukraine political and military analysts on Twitter. I think there is a blind spot in the analysis of Russia’s employment of violence as spectacle.
The chatter in my head comes from Kant, Hegel, Husserl, Heidegger, Bachelard, Latour, Girard, Foucault, Piaget, Kuhn, Pierce, Saussure, Boudrillard, Derrida, Barthes, Eco. This was the ‘heroic’ approach to humanities my friends and I had, how we did it in the 80’s and 90’s, and I am still on the road. It was like throwing yourself into the wood chipper.
I’ve been reading Josh Marshall’s Twitter lists of Ukraine experts, military and political analysts, and I am certain the West has very big blind spots. Debates about Russian ‘intentionality’ or ‘authorship’ of these Bryansk fires are stuck as bad as New Critics on Intentional Fallacy.
Writers like Baudrillard, Eco and Barthes are sensitive to bringing semiological structure to illuminate the expressive dimension of real events. Violence is phenomenological. It creates a new social reality.
The Russian analytical framework is fixated on this aspect. The spectacular nature of violence and catastrophe. However, much of the analysis is ’empirical’ and ‘analytical’. Political science in the United States rests on analytical, Anglo-American philosophy. Everything is either an entity that excludes others from its volume or it is operationalized through instrumentation as statistical data for inferential reasoning.
The effort to bring continental philosophy on board in the 80’s and 90’s failed, I think, largely due to the awful writing that happened in imitation of Derrida and Foucault. It was bad writing, not failure within criteria for meaningfulness. I really recommend Heidegger and Bachelard if nothing else.
The expressive dimension of violence, the terroristic dimension, is more significant than the practical or factitious to Russians. They are more interested in what this war is doing inside Russia and inside the United States than inside Ukraine. I think it’s in those dimensions where you find the primary war aims, especially reconstitution of Russian state terror internally.
I think if COVID had not happened, or if Trump had managed to hold power in 2020, we would have had a fake war with Russia, because if Trumpism ever becomes ascendant Russia and our own government will engineer this, I believe, because a path would exist for spontaneous, irreversible transformation into Christo-fascism in the United States through application of the same script Russia has been following.
The apartment bombings that preceded the 2nd Chechen War are more like, as @sdhays says, Putin’s M.O. They were an atrocious spectacle. As a result of the bombings, the Russian population cognitively restructured ensuring Putin’s ascension to the Presidency, so the models were predictive and effective.
Horrific, spectacular, genocidal brutality in Ukraine now has Russians seeing themselves, their families last days in a blood-soaked abattoir under the power of vicious wild Russians from places they’ve only heard about. Genocide is the eschatological constitution of scientific totalitarianism. The Russian population has been forced to accommodate to inhumanity.
The last steps to reconstitution of Russian terror as a state, a form of government, will be mass-mobilization and purge. It is a great crime that has occurred in Bryansk. In science life is reproducible. Petroleum is the greater fuel even than blood.
The apartment bombings were a sacrifice of blood. This bombing is a greater crime within the cosmology of scientific totalitarianism, even if there are no deaths. Death is not significant. The individual is a scientific reproducibility.
Petroleum is the greater fuel than blood because it powers the atrocious, purifying, activities of war. It is the sacramental blood of the fascist state, which will finally bring power over human sin and purge disloyalty, pedophilia, atheism from Russian society.
It is a very twisted Beast
Rising in the East!
wetzel
I think in his writings and speech Vladimir Putin is exhibiting patterns of disordered thinking. A person in the United States with such ideas about history, political change, and their own providential role in it would likely be diagnosed with schizophrenia or schizo-affective disorder in the United States under DSM-V.
The difference is that the delusions of reference have been given a great big palace within the Christo-Fascist Hegelian philosophy of Ivan Ilyin, so Vladimir Putin is prima-facia God’s anointed as long as he follows Ilyin’s White Russian Orthodox playbook to purify Russian society through war and purges as the only hope for Christian salvation on this earth.
It sounds absolutely knackers, as the British would say, but I think this is what is actually happening. Because Hegelian phenomenologies connect to individual consciousness, the state becomes the engineer or social reality. The security services in Russia have pre-existing methods. Whether it is Marxist or Christo-fascist, there are those with historical consciousness, and there is the bourgeoisie. It can all use the same apparatus.
oldster
Zelensky is an amazing orator. He’s already sounding Churchillian, and at this rate, future historians are going to say that Churchill sounded Zelenskian.
Carlo Graziani
@piratedan: More speculating, of course, really based on past NATO war fighting practice, and on how this war has been going:
In the event that direct NATO intervention were judged necessary, the “boots on the ground” are already in place, in the form of the UA. At most, some Special Forces trainers might be required for fast train-up on new toys. The real day-zero intervention would be in the form of USAF ground attack on attacking Russian Army forward units, and close air support of UA counter-offensives.
Which would probably look to the Russians a lot like most of their tanks, APCs artillery pieces, rocket launchers, radar installations, and aircraft blowing up at the same time without warning. That’s what I think scares the bejeezus out of them. They have no counter to that. If they invite it, Vladi’s Excellent Adventure in Ukraine is over, and the next game is a lot grimmer, even from their perspective.
wetzel
@Carlo Graziani:
More speculating, of course, really based on past NATO war fighting practice, and on how this war has been going:
What past NATO war fighting practice? Where has NATO ever fought together as NATO except Afghanistan?
The real day-zero intervention would be in the form of USAF ground attack on attacking Russian Army forward units, and close air support of UA counter-offensives.
Which would probably look to the Russians a lot like most of their tanks, APCs artillery pieces, rocket launchers, radar installations, and aircraft blowing up at the same time without warning. That’s what I think scares the bejeezus out of them. They have no counter to that.
Of course they have a counter, a reciprocal pattern of violent spectacles as we begin a permanent war with Russia. Putin is bent on it. He is aching for it. He will get us to take the bait.
In addition to reconstituting terror in Russia as a Christo-fascist totalitarian state, Putin wants to begin a permanent war with the United States. This will inevitably ratchet the United States towards a mirror-fascism. They are aiming for a different end of history. Putin and French, British and American fascists aim to make the West fascist too. This is in the interest of the Russian and Chinese governments because it will ensure that they are stable. Democratic societies develop.
Since WWII the true, past NATO war fighting practice has been that no matter what, the United States and Russia must never directly trade fire. This war is Ukraine is not a proxy war, though. They are fighting with us, but in defeating Putin by Ukrainian valor in arms, this second primary war aim is also defeated, to bring the United States and Russia into a permanent war. I am saying this is not only existential in the face of the absolute eschatology of nuclear annihilation, but that we will face a spiritual apocalypse, a phenomenological one. The Russians will draw us out like Lysander and Demetrius in Midsummer Nights Dream and make us chase devils until we are identical.
wetzel
If not for the Battle of Kyiv, Bucha was to have been the start of a season of atrocity in Ukraine.
Would NATO have stood by as witness? Thank goodness for Ukraine’s effective home defense. They are gaining efficacy on the security situation, and after the Russians are expelled from Ukrainian territory, legal proceedings in the Hague can be the focus.
Just like in the United States, the GOP left the plane of debate and tried to overthrow the government, and we cannot return to normalcy until legal process, I think it will have to be the same in international law. Do things such as pursue India and China in firm commitments to deliver Vladimir Putin to the Hague if he enters their territory. Similarly, to debate this election season a Republican should have to commit to accountability for the crimes under federal law on Jan 6.
The big advantage over the fascists is not military but legal. Even the national party at the GOP was involved in the conspiracy here at home. They broke the law! There are unstoppable processes of discovery and adjudication. This is the season for nos accusens but within all norms of evidence and due process. It’s the same in international law and the laws regarding crimes against humanity. They are just a bunch of insane lunatics and criminals!!!!
wetzel
No that’s not right. There are Trumpists and Putinists. I do not know if one group supervenes over the other. But there is a home fascism, and there is an over-there fascism. Just because they think they are above history, or whatever delusional mind-set they’ve incorporated, they are still accountable to plain letter law. That’s all I’m saying. Both Trump and Putin. The law has been violated. The processes of justice can lead to peace. It’s like a magic trick. This is better than permanent war with an adversary you can never actually defeat militarily without also annihilating yourself.