I checked out the website listed below, and clicking on my (general) location gave me a useful list of sites, complete with links & distances:
Familiarize yourself with where you might get access to monoclonal antibodies or antiviral pills if you do test positive. The US government has a website to help https://t.co/eT2k6ZnNyX
— Global Health Observ (@GlobalPHObserv) April 24, 2022
View from the ‘Sensible Centrist’ lane, for better or worse:
We’re in a much different place now than two years ago. Now, the virus is more contagious but less virulent, we have a wall of immunity from vaccination and previous infection, and better tests, treatments and disease surveillance. 2/
— Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) April 22, 2022
Two years ago, Covid hospitalized & killed a higher proportion of people it infected. Nearly all people who tested positive in hospitals were there because the virus was making them sick—after all, there was NO immunity to it, and, also, the virus was more lethal than Omicron. 3/
Now, more than 90% of Americans likely have some level of immunity to Covid—from vaccinations, prior infection, or both. Although far too many aren’t up-to-date with their vaccination, we still have substantial protection. 4/
The virus itself has evolved, becoming more contagious (Alpha), more contagious AND more virulent (Delta) and MUCH more contagious but less virulent (Omicron). It could—and almost certainly will—change again, unpredictably. 5/
Even though many at-home Covid test results aren’t being reported, actual case rates now are without doubt a lot lower than they were a few months ago, and many people feel more comfortable traveling, gathering indoors and shedding their masks. 6/
If you’re healthy and up-to-date with your vaccination, that’s a reasonable approach. Covid poses a relatively low risk of severe illness to you, especially compared with other daily risks we willingly accept. 7/…
Today, there are probably fewer people hospitalized in US from Covid than hospitalized for flu during an average flu year. BUT hospitalizations have started to rise and have nearly doubled in some places in past 6 weeks, though are still a small fraction of recent peaks. 11/…
With vaccines, our wall of immunity and new highly effective treatment, especially Paxlovid, we can now likely keep severe disease caused by Omicron variants at or under that caused by flu. A measured approach to both can prevent deaths while limiting disruption to our lives. 14/…
Weighing all of the above is no easy task, and each of us may come to different conclusions about what activities we’re comfortable doing given factors such as our vaccination status, risk tolerance, age, underlying health and who we could potentially spread the virus to. 18/
If you’re immunosuppressed, older or medically vulnerable—or live with someone who is—you’ll likely want to continue to mask up, and, in fact, up your mask game to an N95 and make sure you’re up-to-date with vaccination and seek prompt treatment if you do get sick. 19/
Even if we personally don’t feel at risk from Covid, people around us might be. We have a responsibility to protect those among us who are most vulnerable by taking reasonable precautions, including masking up in higher-risk environments or when community spread is high. 20/
When a judge overturned the federal mask mandate on public transportation this week, it raised a big issue, which is whether we may lose the tools we need to protect ourselves not just now but against a future variant or a future health threat. https://n.pr/36ArLvl 21/
We have a reasonable expectation that society will take action so our child doesn’t get killed by a drunk driver, the local restaurant doesn’t serve us food that sends us to the hospital, and medicines in the neighborhood pharmacy aren’t contaminated. 22/
We must bolster public health, not undermine its budgetary stability and legal authority. Covid didn’t have to kill most of the people in the US and globally who died from it. If we heed the lessons of this pandemic, we can have safer, healthier, more stable societies. 23/end
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China's capital Beijing has begun mass testing and shutting down residential and business districts amid a new virus outbreak of 40 cases since Friday. Residents were staying in and stocking up on food in case they are confined to their homes. https://t.co/LzaygbAvEE
— The Associated Press (@AP) April 25, 2022
China Covid death toll rises as Beijing warns of ‘grim’ situation https://t.co/8U3salbCob pic.twitter.com/kqYme9yx8j
— Hong Kong Free Press HKFP (@hkfp) April 24, 2022
Shanghai considers more targeted COVID curbs as lockdown enters 4th week https://t.co/dxUoq7lmz1 pic.twitter.com/lmqfj7Sa6S
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 25, 2022
BBC correspondent:
Officials in #Beijing saying that #Omicron has potentially been spreading in the community here over recent weeks, with dozens of official new infections in various places with lots of contacts. #Chaoyang district requiring #Covid tests before people can go to work Monday.
— Stephen McDonell (@StephenMcDonell) April 24, 2022
Bumping this for any Beijing folks insane enough to not have already completely prepped and have shit piled to the rafters. IMHO 20 local cases/day is the mark for general prep, 100 for a serious stockpile. https://t.co/uWk2uKT9af
— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) April 25, 2022
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If from here on out we're 'living with Covid,' that term will have to be more than an empty phrase: Individuals will need public health tools to manage BA.2 and future waves https://t.co/W9QXL74n6l
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) April 25, 2022
COVID-19 vaccines still offer strong protection against severe illness and death, but Moderna and Pfizer are testing combination shots as a possible new kind of booster. https://t.co/iIezUHPJTI
— The Associated Press (@AP) April 24, 2022
For patients with long covid looking to return to exercise, experts say to take it slow. https://t.co/Bzw5ilqScr
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 24, 2022
======
On The Road – Albatrossity – Springtime in Arizona – Week 5
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
526 new cases. I knew that 393 count yesterday was too good to be true. And this is from the NYSDOH, so it’s just PCR tests.
New Deal democrat
Very few States reported yesterday. From The NY Times site, nationwide cases rose slightly to 47,700, a 30% increase for the week. Hospitalization admissions rose to 12,272. Deaths were flat at 354.
In the Northeast, the first area hit by the BA.2.12.1 wave, RI and MA have peaked and are declining. NJ is up 4% in a week. NY is up 15%, but this contrasts with being up 25% in the previous 7 days (the official NYS data shows only an 8% increase).
I think we are going to see the peak in the Northeast in about a week, at a level 2.5-3.0x it’s recent low, and about 6.5 weeks after the wave began. I suspect the peak in the US as a whole will be about Memorial Day at 75,000-90,000 cases. If we are close to the low in deaths, this gives us an estimate of 900-1100 deaths by the 4th of July.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 4,006 new Covid-19 cases yesterday in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 4,431,073 cases. It also reported eight deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 35,499 deaths – 0.80% of the cumulative reported total, 0.81% of resolved cases.
Malaysia’s nationwide Rt stands at 0.77.
50 confirmed cases and 48 suspected cases are in ICU; of these patients, 34 confirmed cases and 27 suspected cases are on ventilators. Meanwhile, 10,223 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,320,822 patients recovered – 97.5% of the cumulative reported total.
One new cluster was reported yesterday, for a cumulative total of 7,004 clusters. 97 clusters are currently active; 6,907 clusters are now inactive.
3,999 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. Seven new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 52,712 doses of vaccine on 24th April: 11,918 first doses, 37,974 second doses, and 2,820 booster doses. The cumulative total is 70,070,020 doses administered: 27,716,217 first doses, 26,556.870 second doses, and 16,009,979 booster doses. 84.9% of the population have received their first dose, 81.3% their second dose, and 49.0% their booster dose.
mrmoshpotato
That last tweet…
debbie
The Test to Treat website just spins and spins…
JeanneT
@debbie: It worked first try for me. Running Firefox on a Mac, if that gives you any clues.
debbie
@JeanneT:
I’ll have to try from my Chromebook later. Thanks.
Spanky
@debbie: Worked fine in Chrome on Android.
RSA
Eric Topol:
The number is shocking—I hadn’t realized. But the statement overall seems badly phrased. Cumulative deaths over the past 2+ years don’t tell you what the probability of dying of COVID is today, now that we have vaccines and treatments. And the linked bar chart is a comparison of COVID deaths across age groups, but that’s not enough to figure Topol’s probability (e.g. population size by age is missing).
YY_Sima Qian
On 4/24 Mainland China reported 2,666 new domestic confirmed (899 previously asymptomatic), 17,528 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 domestic suspect cases, & 39 new deaths.
Guangdong Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases, all at Guangzhou, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 15 domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 235 active domestic confirmed & 113 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Fangchenggang) cases, a traced close contact under centralized quarantine. 17 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed (all at Baise) & 259 active domestic asymptomatic cases (222 at Fangchenggang, 25 at Baise, 5 at Chongzuo, 6 at Qinzhou, & 1 at Nanning) in the province.
Hunan Province reported 12 new domestic confirmed cases, 10 at Shaoyang & 2 at Changsha. All of the cases at Shaoyang were found via area screening. The cases at Changsha returned from Shanghai on 4/23 & under centralized quarantine since. There currently are 40 active domestic confirmed cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 4 sites at Shaoyang are currently at Medium Risk.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 9 new domestic confirmed cases, all at Manzhouli in Hulun Buir, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 20 active domestic confirmed (15 at Hulun Buir, 2 each at Chifeng & Hinggan League, & 1 at Bayan Nur) & 4 active domestic asymptomatic (all at Hinggan League) cases in the province. 3 sub-districts in Manzhouli are currently at Medium Risk.
Tianjin Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (mild), a construction worker returning from building temporary hospitals in Shanghai & under centralized quarantine since arrival. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
Shandong Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 49 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 23 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 65 active domestic confirmed cases & 589 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As not all of the administrative divisions in the province provide data on recoveries, I cannot track the count of active cases in all of the administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Shanxi Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (both mild) & 5 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Taiyuan, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 13 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 61 active domestic confirmed (47 at Taiyuan, 12 at Shuozhou, & 1 each at Xinzhou & Yangquan) & 237 active domestic asymptomatic (230 at Taiyuan & 7 at Shuozhou) cases remaining. 1 site at Taiyuan is currently at Medium Risk.
Hebei Province reported 74 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 37 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 19 active domestic confirmed & 1,120 active asymptomatic case in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Liaoning Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases. 13 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed & 150 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Heilongjiang Province reported 26 new domestic confirmed & 12 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 2 domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 379 active domestic confirmed & 260 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jilin Province reported 79 new domestic confirmed (39 previously asymptomatic, 71 mild & 8 moderate) & 107 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 443 domestic confirmed & 627 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. As the province does not consistently break down recoveries by confirmed & asymptomatic cases or by jurisdictions, I can no longer track the count of active case counts in the different jurisdictions.
Beijing Municipality reported 14 new domestic confirmed (19 mild & 3 moderate) & 5 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 10 traced close tacts (6 under centralized quarantine), 3 via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure, & 5 via community screening. There rumors flying that a lockdown is imminent. Certainly the fact that there has been cryptic community transmission for a week, & there has been a super spreading event at a school, certainly presents danger. My guess is that at least parts of Beijing will go into lockdown a la Guangzhou in Guangdong, at worst a 1-week snap lockdown like Shenzhen in Guangdong. As the city does not break down recoveries by imported vs. domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there. 1 site is current at High Risk. 1 site is currently at Medium Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 2,472 new domestic confirmed (846 previously asymptomatic) & 16,983 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 18,392 of the new domestic positive cases were already under quarantine, & 217 via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (effectively meaning from the community). There were 51 deaths (avg. 84.2 y.o. & oldest at 100 y.o., all w/ a range of underlying conditions, 4 partially/fully vaccinated). 2,449 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 19,523 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 24,102 active domestic confirmed (196 serious & 23 critical) & 203,262 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 13 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
At Shaanxi Province 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 16 active domestic confirmed & 12 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 1 site at Xi’an is currently at Medium Risk.
Hubei Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic (both at Wuhan) cases, both traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 42 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 5 active domestic confirmed (all mild, 4 at Wuhan & 1 at Huanggang) & 186 active domestic asymptomatic (3 at Suizhou, 82 at Wuhan, 56 at Ezhou, 5 each at Yichang & Enshi Prefecture, 33 at Huanggang, & 1 each at Shiyan & Xiaogan) cases in the province.
Jiangsu Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed & 92 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 13 domestic confirmed & 68 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The currently are 81 active domestic confirmed & 1,138 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in each administrative division, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Anhui Province reported 29 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 30 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 12 active confirmed & 524 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Zhejiang Province reported 13 new domestic confirmed (12 previously asymptomatic) & 19 new domestic asymptomatic case. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported versus domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
Gansu Province there currently are 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province no longer breaks down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in the administrative divisions.
Fujian Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic) case. 4 domestic confirmed case recovered & 11 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 49 active domestic confirmed & 179 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region there currently are 4 active domestic asymptomatic (all at Shuanghe) cases in the region.
At Guizhou Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed (at Guiyang) cases remaining in the province.
Jiangxi Province reported 14 new domestic confirmed (12 mild & 2 moderate) & 116 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 5 asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 121 active domestic confirmed & 332 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Henan Province reported 5 new domestic confirmed (all mild, 4 at Anyang & 1 at Zhengzhou) & 18 new domestic asymptomatic (2 at Zhengzhou, 10 at Anyang, 1 at Shangqiu, & 5 at Xinyang) cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 13 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 35 active domestic confirmed & 252 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 1 site at Luohe is currently at Medium Risk.
Bazhong in Sichuan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, a person coming from area w/ active outbreak & under centralized quarantine since arrival. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported vs. domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
At Chongqing Municipality there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining in the city.
Qinghai Province reported 5 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic, both mild) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Xining, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 3 domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 43 active domestic confirmed & 36 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Yunnan Province reported 14 new domestic asymptomatic cases (1 at Maguan County in Wenshan Prefecture & 13 at Jinping County in Honghe Prefecture). 2 domestic confirmed & 20 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 17 active domestic confirmed & 228 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 4/24, Mainland China reported 14 new imported confirmed cases (3 previously asymptomatic), 53 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 2,982 confirmed cases recovered (22 imported), 20,548 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (94 imported) & 902 were reclassified as confirmed cases (3 imported), & 32,431 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 29,178 active confirmed cases in the country (210 imported), 274 in serious/critical condition (all domestic), 245,343 active asymptomatic cases (612 imported), 2 suspect cases (both imported). 435,378 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 4/24, 3,331.771M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 2.005M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 4/25, Hong Kong reported 431 new positive cases, 16 imported & 415 domestic (2226 via RT-PCR & 189 from rapid antigen tests), 11 deaths (3 fully vaccinated) + 7 backlogged deaths.
On 4/25, Taiwan reported 5,221 new positive cases, 106 imported & 5,108 domestic, symptom onset for domestic cases range from 3/28 – 4/24.
Matt McIrvin
@RSA: Certainly, if you’re a 50+ person today who is vaccinated and boosted, your probability of dying from COVID is far smaller than that (unless you are, say, 90+ years old).
Soprano2
It is puzzling to me too that in China they can force you to take a PCR test anytime, and lock you in your house with little or no warning, but feel they can’t make people get vaccinated! Seems like bad priorities to me
ETA – I also wish people would quit acting like we still have the circumstances of April 2020. Things are a lot different now, acknowledge that! I think there are a few people who like the constant “high alert” of Covid, and are having a hard time giving it up.
YY_Sima Qian
Yeah, there is a de facto mandate to get RT-PCR test every 48 hrs in Wuhan (to access, public transportation, schools, work, public spaces), & the policy is spread across the country. (Shenzhen has required people to test negative w/in 48 hrs to take the metro since the city exited its 1-week snap lock down.) Surely the authorities can implement similar mandates for vaccinations. Some cities tried to do so late last year, & had to backtrack due to popular backlash.
In Shanghai medical personnel are going door to door to take swabs in high prevalence neighborhoods, surely personnel can be mobilized to go door to door to give the elders shots.
Both lockdowns & vaccination should be priorities. The latter takes 1.5 mo. to take full effect, the former is still need to prevent a blow up during that time. I do not know why the government
Reboot
@Soprano2: Long covid not a concern?
Jesse
I struggle to understand the energy that powers people like Delthia Ricks and Eric Topol. I thought the consensus view in physics, for some time now, was that perpetual finger wagging machines are impossible. We make fun of people like Greenwald and fellow travelers for banging the same drum over and over, for years and years. Ricks and Topol have entered that territory for me.
Anonymous At Work
Yanzhong Huang “Tweet” has me thinking that we need data on Sinovac as it applies to Omicron B.A.2 variant because a “mandatory testing, mandatory quarantine, voluntary vaccination” program says that Chinese government isn’t sure if Sinovac protects all that well and needs any deaths to be attributable to not testing and quarantining, rather than vaccination failure.
Cameron
Chris Keys, taking the piss again…..
Jeffery
There was a super spreader event on Main Street in Manayunk yesterday. Food trucks park the length of Main Street selling over price food all day. This is the first event in two years. It was sunny, 70° and breezy. It was pandemonium on the street where I live. Bumper to bumper cars going up and down the hill. Hundreds of people flowing by. I saw one mask. Wonder how Philly’s numbers will be in ten days.
smith
Thanks for letting me know that my desire not to die is just a foolish neurosis. I’m in my seventies and have a genetic condition that makes me susceptible to blood clots. Where I live the case rate has quadrupled in the last few weeks, and that’s surely a vast undercount. Despite being vaxxed, I’m a prime candidate for dying from covid if I catch it. That’s not addiction to a “constant high alert,” that’s “preferring not to die just yet.”
YY_Sima Qian
@Anonymous At Work: There has already been study by University of Hong Kong based on the Omicron tsunami there. 1 shot of Sinovac has lower (but still significant) protection against sever/fatal outcomes for > 60 y.o. than 1 shot of BioNTech. 2 shots of Sinovac better than 1 shot, comparable to 1 shot of BioNTech. 3 shots of Sinovac has comparable protection to 3 shots of BioNTech, both at ~ 98% efficacy against severe/fatal outcomes for > 60 y.o.
A few distorting factors not addressed by the study:
Honestly, even if China has used substantially mRNA vaccines & has > 95% of its > 80 y.o. fully vaccinated, I do not believe the response will be all that different than what we see now. Consider South Korea, 75% of its ~ 20K fatalities from the pandemic are from the Omicron wave in 2022 (which is very low compared to most of the rest of the world). The country has very high vaccination rate w/ the oldest cohorts the best vaccinated. If China has SK’s vaccination rate & loosening restrictions, ~ 450K elders will die, scaling SK’s death rate up to match China’s population. Neither the CCP regime nor the Chinese population are prepared to accept that outcome at this moment. Then there is the unknown risk of Long COVID. So, China will continue w/ strong restrictions to minimize spread, the regime will continue call it “Dynamic Zero COVID” even if COVID-19 is unlikely to be eliminated w/in its borders ever again (w/in local jurisdictions, sure), until a variant comes along that is too transmissive even for China to contain or the cost of the measures become unbearably high. It is on the knife’s edge now w/ Omicron BA.2 (would be easier if Shanghai does not exist as a cancerous tumor that constantly threatens rapid spread to the rest of the country), BA.2.12.x may make the entire exercise untenable.
Scout211
@Soprano2:
Well, I’m not on alert for myself but I am for my husband who is almost 80 and has many chronic conditions that could turn a mild case to a serious case very quickly. So we are vaxxed and boosted twice and are still very cautious in indoor group settings. Maybe not on high alert but definitely on moderately high alert. That doesn’t mean that I don’t acknowledge improvements in community spread. It just means I love my husband and want him around a bit longer.
Laura Too
I am sitting in the exact spot I was in March of 2020 (my sister’s house in PNW) Anne Laurie’s daily Covid updates had been required reading from the beginning so I had a vague clue what was coming. The first deaths in Everett were wall to wall coverage on the daily news, seeing the gurneys come out of the nursing home wheeled by people in full hazmat suits was surreal as we had driven by there that morning. Fast forward to today when I took a moment to reflect on what a long strange trip it’s been. I am most grateful to AL and all of you who contribute to this little corner of the world with stats and links and stories. You have kept me at times angry, sad, joyous, and thoughtful. I have been grounded by being able to come here and get real information. I don’t usually get the opportunity to weigh in, I usually get to read things days later but for today I had a moment. This is my long winded way of saying thank you. I appreciate all you have done AL, and all the amazing people who hang out here.
Pittsburgh Mike
@Matt McIrvin: Even earlier, most of the 50+ deaths were probably 70+ deaths.
This is a disease that really hammers the unvaccinated elderly.
Pittsburgh Mike
So, the reason so many people think Covid is over, is that it’s actually mostly over.
The vast majority of deaths are in the 50+ category, and with a case fatality rate of 1/125 in that population. Vaccination and boosting probably reduces the likelihood of dying by 90-95%, and Paxlovid apparently buys another factor of 10. So, calling the vaccination improvement 92%, and 100M people 50+ in this country, your estimated deaths of fully vaccinated and boosted people is probably about (1/125)*0.08*0.10*100M, or about 6,400 people. Maybe add in another 10% for people younger than 50 who succumb anyway, so call it 7,000 in round numbers.
Those numbers don’t even reach those of a bad flu year.
Of course, the real numbers are noticeably higher, because there’s a bunch of folks who think that playing Russian roulette with a 100 bullet capacity gun shows their love of Trump. But what can you do about that? You can’t fix stupid. We’ve tried.
So, when do you call it? Yes, there are still going to be cases, but for almost everyone, including the immunocompromised, the cases are going to be very mild. If 7000 deaths, small compared to the flu, is too many, is 700? 70? 7??
YY_Sima Qian
@Pittsburgh Mike: I would say it is truly over when the vulnerable population (vaccinated) are no longer at significantly heightened risk (say, 25% higher?) compared to pre-pandemic. Otherwise, w/o mitigation measures, the prevalence of the virus will be so high that the most vulnerable will need to shut in, while everyone else live free. Not sure that is a more humane outcome than all of the draconian measures China is using to try to stamp out the virus.