Two quick notes:
Yes!! "Biden to ask Congress for $33 billion in aid to Ukraine as war enters new phase." $20.4 billion military/security assistance ($5 billion drawdown authorities, $6 billion Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative & $4 billion for @StateDept FMF) https://t.co/CTmuF6fEoy
— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) April 28, 2022
And for comparative purposes:
Ok, so the Americans are serious. Biden is asking Congress for a $33 billion support package for Ukraine, including over $20 billion for military assistance.
To put that into perspective, the Ukrainian military budget is $5.9 billion.— Woofers (@NotWoofers) April 28, 2022
This is real money. Another comparison is that the US Congress will be asked to give Ukraine about 50% of Russia’s annual defense budget. I would strongly suspect that other Western powers will be kicking in significant pots of money and things of value that will notably up that percentage as well.
President Biden: Support for Ukrainians Defending Their Country and Their Freedom at 10:45 a.m. (LIVE)
Steve in the ATL
Waiting for Adam to jump in with “Off my corner, ho!”
Elizabelle
All for this. Ukraine’s plight can help us (and other democracies) save our own countries from internal threat, as well.
Searcher
Really hope this go through.
I’m hoping the tens of millions Putin has funneled to the Republicans doesn’t keep them bought.
MisterForkbeard
Yeah. That’s serious cash headed for Ukraine (not sure how much that is just money we’re giving vs money we’re spending to give them stuff), but either way: Good news.
Also a significant escalation. Russia has already been escalating and spreading the conflict, but that’s gonna be a thing.
MisterForkbeard
@Searcher: I don’t know. I think it’s in their (narrow and russian aligned) interests to let this drag on and keep Biden from getting any credit on finishing it.
But on the other hand, they’ve been banging the tables a lot doing the “why won’t Biden do moar?” yelling.
Amir Khalid
Will Republicans in Congress sabotage this, in line with their one remaining principle of nihilistic opposition to anything proposed by Democrats?
matt
What are Biden’s options if Congress does its typical ‘fuck everything up’?
lashonharangue
@Amir Khalid:
This is potentially a wedge issue going into the 2022 mid-terms. Not clear to me that all of the R base is as bought into Putin and Orban as the evangelicals.
SFAW
@Searcher:
And I’m hoping to wake up tomorrow with a full head of hair, and good-looking. Well, OK, better-looking; “good looking” is a bridge too far.
@MisterForkbeard:
And since when have the Rethugs started behaving logically or consistently?
@Amir Khalid:
They’ll try. [Well, at least some of them will.] Let’s hope they don’t succeed
Joe Falco
@MisterForkbeard: I suspect Republicans will try to kill it with “death by a thousand cuts”, endlessly asking for specifics about what the money will be used so as not to give Biden a “blank check”. “Fiscal conservativism” when it suits them to strangle any new spending.
Jefferson
The treasonous GOPer will object strenuously. Proxy wars cost money. Better fighting the Russians there than here.
Raoul Paste
I wonder how this compares to what we used to be spending in Iraq and Afghanistan?
kindness
I’m a paying reader of Talking Points Memo and I was really saddened today to see that Josh Marshal has a piece up imploring the US to push for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. I’m a bit taken back by that. How do you negotiate with someone who has already taken 1/5 of the county, butchered it’s citizens, and has stated it will only accept taking the whole country as a ‘negotiated’ settlement.
Jeffro
@lashonharangue:
Yes indeed.
The inevitable comments that will follow from the pro-Putin wing…we need to grab those as they come out and make sure to raise hell about them (and not just on Twitter, either). Mainstream media, letters to the editor, etc.
Wapiti
@matt: IMO, Biden could reference TFG diverting money from various places to pay for the border wall that Congress wouldn’t fund. Congress did nothing, and iirc, the USSC said they wouldn’t get involved. Pick the states that the Dems have absolutely no chance of flipping, and raid projects there.
We’re in a war-by-proxy with Russia. Spend the needed money to safeguard our alliances in Europe.
Hoodie
Drop in the bucket, and no US troops involved. Finally calling Putins’ bluff after revealing the deficiencies in his armed forces. Also an invitation for the Rand Pauls of the world to step on their dicks, which they wont’ be able to resist.
Frank Wilhoit
@kindness: Not him alone; here is the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/28/liz-truss-ukraine-war-russia-conservative-power
jnfr
I’d like to think the Republicans won’t be assholes about this, but I’m not really hopeful.
WaterGirl
@kindness:
The bolded part is disgusting.
I suppose he thinks that a woman with an abusive husband should negotiate for him to only beat her on the weekdays, with weekends and holidays off?
Orr maybe she should just extract a promise that, well, okay, you can beat me whenever you please, but if you promised to not actually murder me, I can life with that.
Negotiations with someone who doesn’t recognize your right to exist and to make your own decisions can only end one way. And it’s not good.
Kelly
20 billion for military assistance leaves 13 billion in (I guess) humanitarian aid. Seems like a lot but that’s about $300 per Ukrainian. I’m hoping we follow up with something on the scale of the Marshall plan. NATO nations have been preparing to fight Moscow all my life. Ukraine is doing the bleeding.
Betty Cracker
@kindness: It’s a John Judis piece. Usually when I’m reading something on TPM and think to myself, “Gosh, this is really stupid!” it turns out to be a John Judis piece. Luckily, he’s not prolific.
I heard speculation (here, I think) that Judis was Marshall’s mentor early in his career, and Marshall can’t bear to shitcan him now. I don’t know, but there must be some explanation like that. TPM is a solid publication, and Judis frequently embarrasses it.
Brantl
Oh, a two-for-one, I LIKE it!
dmsilev
@kindness: Are you talking about this article? I don’t think that’s Josh Marshall calling for negotiated peace. At most, it’s Josh Marshall saying that TPM-columnist-nobody-should-read John Judis was making that argument and that Marshall agrees with one small segment of Judis’ piece, specifically
Miss Bianca
@WaterGirl: I’m not even going to click on it to read it. Seems like just one step away from “Hasn’t Russia suffered ENOUGH?!”
No.
Cameron
If the Republicans refuse to approve the aid package, Biden could go for broke, go on TV, and announce, “Since my Republican friends have declined to support Ukraine’s heroic struggle against its Russian invader, they leave me no moral choice but to order the United States military to provide whatever assistance the Ukrainian people require.” Too big a gamble, though…
wetzel
That’s good. The de-escalatory path is quick victory by Ukrainian forces on the battlefield and shift of focus to war crimes trials at the Hague.
If Ukraine does the job, we will not get drawn into a war ourselves with Russia. For us to get drawn into trading fire with Russia is one of their primary war aims. This would be a permanent war between the United States and Russia that neither could ever really intend to win, because it would mean annihilation, so it will be a fake war. It will make Putinism stable in Russia and it will make us fascist too. The United States, especially, and Russia must never trade fire. Russian strategy entails drawing us into a reciprocal spiral.
Putting this out here, and I am just some dope on the internet. I think the United Kingdom, France, Turkey, any NATO member but the United States military, should be prepared to step in and reciprocate an attack Russia may be planning to make on the United States, even if the attack is outrageous and spectacular, especially so, such as a nuclear torpedo strike on a carrier. This is to prevent the United States and Russia from trading fire. It has to be understood already. There is a countdown to midnight you can start without knowing it.
They want us to become fascist too, and war will do it. The goal to turn the West fascist has been apparent from Russian active measures in the West for the past decade. It was due to this corruption we impeached Donald Trump twice. Russian measures also corrupted the Brexit campaign, apparently. There are Putinist tendrils in the horseshoe left and the far right. Russia wants to turn the West fascist. You do that by fomenting fascist political movements in the West. Then you have a permanent war. This will transition the West to scientific totalitarianism as Russia itself reconstitutes state terror.
In the final geopolitical state, Russian and Chinese governments are stable and Western influence is manageable within their state domains because we all have the same form of scientific totalitarianism with different phenomenologies, ie orthodox Christo-fascist, Chinese communist, and whatever weird fascism steeped in apocolyptic Christianity, American militarism and corporate hegemony we would find ourselves living within here at home.
WaterGirl
@Wapiti: The people of Ukraine are paying the price for being the front line in the fight between democracy and autocracy and authoritarianism that is happening around the globe.
Anyone who can’t see that is either not paying attention or is too short-sighted to be listened to.
As an analogy, when it comes to dealing with a major loss, maybe loss of a relationship, divorce, losing a family member, etc. I use the phrase “pay now or pay later, with interest”.
“Pay now or pay later, with interest” is exactly true with regard to Ukraine. Leaving aside the moral argument for the moment and looking only at self-interest, the democratic world needs to stop Russia in Ukraine before he destroys Ukraine and is on to his next conquest.
Putin, like T**** in many ways, has not experienced the natural consequences of his actions. No matter how much it costs, it is much less expensive – in every sense – to fight him where he is now. The situation in Ukraine, that devastation, is already “interest” on situations we failed to respond to with consequences for Putin at the time.
We truly are at a crossroads. Even if only for our own self interest, Putin must be stopped NOW.
When you add the moral imperative, what we have to do is obvious, and thank god we have a real leader at the helm in both of our countries.
Let’s also heave a very real sigh of relief that Macron was just reelected. One more place where the slide to authoritarianism has been slowed, at the very least.
jnfr
@Betty Cracker:
Exactly the same for me.
VeniceRiley
Josh Marshall does not understand Russia. At all.
I’m hoping Biden already has the defense contractors lined up at their phones calling the legislators they own and the party itself. They spend more on it than Putin.
WaterGirl
@Kelly: We should soon be able to start using CONFISCATED funds/yachts etc to aid Ukraine. No more FREEZING of assets, which is a slap on the hand.
Take from Russia, give to Ukraine to use against Russia.
Ksmiami
Ksmiami
@WaterGirl: I think it’s the plan..
Frank Wilhoit
@dmsilev: There are too many possible “X [dis]agrees with Y” already, so I will say on my own behalf that Sec. Austin’s remark, to the effect that Russia must be reduced to a condition in which it can no longer aspire to project power, was the only forthright statement I have seen from anyone, in any forum. That, as they say, is how it is done. If I thought I could get through to Josh Marshall, I would tell him the same.
lashonharangue
@WaterGirl: Freezing the assets costs money. The rule of thumb is you pay 10% per year of the purchase price to maintain a ship. There is a requirement that frozen assets will be kept whole in case they are ever returned. Maintaining all those mega-yachts starts to add up to real money. Not sure they are of any use to Ukraine. Better to turn them into artificial reefs if they are ever confiscated.
Frank Wilhoit
@wetzel: An absolute precondition to this would be for everyone to understand just exactly who is on which side. Recipients of Russian energy, money, or ideology are NOT, repeat NOT, allies.
Lots of people (~nations, governments) have been talking a big game. If it comes to actually doing anything that could make a difference, they will, in the words of Lewis Carroll, softly and suddenly vanish away.
trollhattan
Rand Paul will appear on RT to accuse Biden of trying to destabilize Russia by aiding and abetting Ukraine Nazis, in 3…2…1…
Good for Joe. US is leading the NATO response for the first time in, I can’t remember. Vlad has created his own trap and jumped right in.
trollhattan
@WaterGirl: Back in February I read that’s against current US law, but perhaps congress could carve out an exception. Maybe they can, but this congress?
Jesse
@kindness: it was Judis, not Marshall. Judis often has a somewhat different take on things. I’d be surprised if Marshall himself supports that position.
RaflW
How many waste of space Republicans will vote against this (sure, Jan “the deficit” is why)?
To that point, the very strong Biden economy is chipping away mightily at that flimsy argument:
trollhattan
@RaflW: Can any Republican tell the difference between the debt and the deficit? Have my doubts.
Jeffro
@jnfr: Don Jr is already tweeting ‘hard pass’ (on the $33B for Ukraine), so there you go…
RaflW
@lashonharangue: Speaking of evangelicals, even the GOP is seeing some erosion in church-going (or, in rare cases, faith-place-other-than-church going). See tweet for helpful graphic that I can’t embed.
Here’s the PRRI source article. Simplest takeaway: Evangelicals have gone from 23% to 14.6% of the US population in just 15 years. No wonder the Christianist base is freaked out. It won’t be a base in a generation.
RaflW
@Raoul Paste: At the peak, we spent $107 Bn in 2011. I’m assuming from the report that is nominal dollars, so this tranche for UKR is maybe a third of that?
The total outlay for Afghanistan was, give or take, one trillion (aka $1,000,000,000,000).
matt
@Betty Cracker: Yeah, I won’t read a Judis bylined piece. He’s always wrong.
lowtechcyclist
Assholishness is all they’re about anymore, so I’m sure they’ll find a way to be assholes about this.
Betty Cracker
@RaflW: The plummeting share of evangelicals is a factor that gives me hope for this country. They are working frantically to consolidate minority control before their influence collapses. Looks like it’ll be a narrow thing.
Fair Economist
I love President Biden.
No buzz in the news that unemployment claims continue at all time historical lows. Shocking.
RaflW
@trollhattan: A less-discussed benefit of inflation is that past debt still on the books becomes smaller in purchasing power terms.
I think about how my first ever mortgage (in 1989) was for a total of $38,500. Like, ummm, what?! (Yes I bought a very inexpensive house, but it was a good solid home, close to the Univ. of TX campus, and even ‘nice’ homes a mile west across I-35 were in the $65K-$80 range.) True, I would have paid it off a few years ago if I’d stayed, but those last few PMI payments in 2019 of $525/mo would have seemed like nothing v. what they meant to me in the first year (still, a good deal even then. Rent in that ‘hood was around $550-600 for similar homes).
ian
@Frank Wilhoit:
A lot of our European allies might argue the energy point with you.
Raoul Paste
@RaflW: thanks for finding those numbers. The other point is that this Ukrainian spending would be a hell of a lot more urgent for US and European national security than the Iraq outlay .
We have a mad dog here
oatler
I think the recent vote on Moldova pretty much exactly identified which reps are full of rubles.
Jesse
@matt: I usually read his pieces but rarely agree. He’s genuine; I don’t think he’s a stooge or anything. Just not my type.
MisterForkbeard
@kindness: That’s not really what I got out of that article. More that escalation is dangerous (yes), and that if possible we’d want to have a negotiated settlement or an actual peace rather than grinding Russia into the dirt, because Russia really is going crazy and there’s not a not we can do about it. But they also have nukes, hacker brigades, and more.
He also makes the point that he doesn’t think Russia is willing to have a negotiated settlement. And that this IS a fight between Democracy and Authoritarianism. But I think he’s generally just pushing for more caution and that Biden shouldn’t say things like “Putin is a war criminal”, even though it’s true.
azlib
@Betty Cracker: I am a TPM paid subscriber and I think Josh lets Judis expound his somewhat contrarian views. Josh has a piece up today agreeing and then disagreeing with parts of Judis’ viewpoint. I actually find it refreshing that Josh lets a contrarian viewpoint get published on TPM.
Most wars end with some sort of negotiation, so Judis’ point is well taken. The question is would Putin even agree to negotiate. He has backed himself into a corner with the poor performance of his military. The best outcome at this point would be deposing Putin from power, but that seems pretty remote.
Whether there is a negotiation is of course up to Ukraine. We and the NATO nations certainly have some leverage since we are providing Ukraine with substantial military assistance.
kindness
@MisterForkbeard: It isn’t Russia we’re trying to grind into the dirt. It’s Ukraine that we are trying to stop Russia from grinding it into dirt.
My apologies for confusing a J Judis piece with a Josh piece. Thanks for the heads up.
trollhattan
@azlib: Have a feeling that the only way this war ends is a ceasefire constructed such that Putin gets to claim victory to the home crowd, regardless of what the stipulations may be. It will be nothing like Biden declaring “we’re done here” in Afghanistan and simply ending the US presence, the boldest presidential act in ages.
Putin’s “strength” is his willingness to send Russians off to die. “So sorry those nazis killed your son. Bad, bad nazis.”
Betty Cracker
@azlib: Also a TPM subscriber, and it’s not that I object to TPM publishing contrarian views per se — it’s a quality issue. My opinion is that Judis is a shoddy writer and thinker. I have thought this for a long time, even when I basically agree with him on a given issue. Just my personal opinion.
Alison Rose ???
@MisterForkbeard:
GOP: “Why won’t Biden do more?????”
Biden: *does more*
GOP: “I hate it!!!!!”
Putin: “Well done, my children.”
Alison Rose ???
@trollhattan: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
Rand Careaga
@Alison Rose ???: “Listen to them, the children of the Right…what music they make!”
Gin & Tonic
@WaterGirl: Did you see the vote on that? 417-8, with four of the 8 being AOC, Omar, Tlaib and Cori Bush. Joining with Cawthorn, Massie, MTG and Chip Roy.
schrodingers_cat
@Gin & Tonic: horseshoe ? caucus
NotMax
@Alison Rose
Calls to mind another one.
“Single-mindedness is all very well in cows or baboons; in an animal claiming to belong to the same species as Shakespeare it is simply disgraceful.”
– Aldous Huxley
;)
Geminid
@azlib: Right now Putin wouldn’t agree to a ceasefire because he still hopes to gain major chunks of Ukrainian territory. When his current offensive exhausts itself he may be willing. But that will be the best moment for Ukraine to launch a counteroffensive to throw Russian forces out of their country. I don’t look for a ceasefire until that counteroffensive is finished.
Geminid
@schrodingers_cat: This war has been a stressor for the Democratic Socialists of America and the DSA adjacent.
Roger Moore
@trollhattan:
That’s one possible end, though it’s getting harder and harder to see it happening. Putin has been aggressively painting himself into a corner about how much success will be acceptable, so it’s difficult to imagine what kind of compromise would let him present himself as the winner while not destroying Ukraine.
Another possible outcome is some kind of Russian military collapse. This wouldn’t necessarily start with collapse in Ukraine. Rather it would be Russia devoting its resources so intensely to Ukraine that it can’t keep up with its other military commitments, most notably to propping up friendly dictators in places like Syria and Belarus. If there’s a people power revolution in one of those places and Russia just doesn’t have the forces to spare to put it down, it could trigger the same thing in other places.
debbie
“Houston, I’ve found where Q came from.”
...now I try to be amused
Putin is desperate to have something to show for his war by 9 May, Victory Day. It’s probably best not to even begin negotiating before then. Politically, before 9 May and after will be night and day.
NotMax
@debbie
Detecting a fundamental flaw in the system.
debbie
@NotMax:
It really creates a picture, doesn’t it? ?
Roger Moore
@Geminid:
What you’re describing is the basic problem with any kind of negotiated settlement in any war. As long as one side thinks they have the upper hand, they’ll be unwilling to negotiate, since they’ll hope to use that upper hand to get more favorable facts on the ground. Negotiations will only start when one side has complete victory or when both sides are so tired out they see a negotiated settlement as preferable to continuing to fight. This is made worse by the total war attitude that victory is to be followed by complete destruction of the other country. If Russia’s only aim in this war were to annex the Donbas, there might be some hope for negotiation if they achieved that. But now that they’ve staked their hopes on complete elimination of Ukraine as an independent country, Ukraine has no reason to negotiate.
WaterGirl
@trollhattan: I may be crazy, but I think I have heard Biden talking about confiscating Russian assets and giving them to Ukraine.
*It’s also possible that i am remembering something wrong, without my being crazy.
WaterGirl
@Jesse: It’s the same thing BooMan had to contend with on his blog. He had another main blogger there who took positions that BooMan could never support, but as I recall, at some point you have to take responsibility for what your bloggers are saying on your site.
Geminid
@Roger Moore: I don’t think that Putin still hopes to eliminate Ukraine as a nation. I think that at this point Russia wants the Donbas and the land bridge along the Sea of Azov between the Crimea and Russian territory to the east.
Of course they’d go hard after Odesa and try to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea if they can succeed in the first step. But I don’t think they can complete even the first step. The Russians will be hard pressed to hold onto what they’ve gained, and time is not on their side.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: What a group.
I did not realize a vote had been taken on that. Can you point me to a source of more information on that?
It’s surprising (not really) how – if you just look at BEHAVIOR – the far ends of a continuum, in both directions, wrap around and seem to meet.
I have seen this perfect example in work settings: someone who comes off as very arrogant can often be someone who filled with self-doubt.
Searcher
@Geminid: Once they have a land bridge to Transnistria they’re in a lot better position to take both Ukraine and Moldova the next time around.
Sure, this time has been a shit show, but practice–
lowtechcyclist
So is this horseshoe distribution a recurring pattern, or is this just a one-off?
wetzel
@Geminid: Right now Putin wouldn’t agree to a ceasefire because he still hopes to gain major chunks of Ukrainian territory.
Putin doesn’t care about territory. Putin cares about power. Putin won’t agree to a ceasefire because the war is increasing his power every day.
Gin & Tonic
@WaterGirl:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/6930
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Roger Moore:
Agreed.
I can imagine a variety of scenarios. Historical analogies coming to mind include the negotiated end to the Russo-Japanese war in 1905 (with dire implications for the prestige of the regime and internal stability in Russia), total collapse along late 1917 / early 1918 lines, or the German request for an armistice on the Western Front in November 1918 while still being in possession of enemy territory but with bleak prospects for the future.
All of these are a bad fit to present circumstances in varying ways and I see them as having very limited use as analogies.
Another possibility is that this war may grind on in a late stage Korean War fashion until Putin dies a natural death from old age and illness – which judging from rumors concerning his current state of health may come sooner than we expect. The resulting scramble for power in post-Putin Russia seems likely to be extremely chaotic and interact with the war in complicated ways that are hard to predict.
Doug R
@RaflW: I suspect that 9/11 may have had something to do with plummeting church membership. A lot of us saw the parallels between Wahhabism and Dominionism and stayed away.
Roger Moore
@Geminid:
I might have made my point a bit stronger than it should have been. I don’t know what Putin actually wants or thinks he can get, but rhetorically Russia has only upped its demands since the war started. That will make it more difficult for Putin to reach a negotiated settlement.
ETA: I also think Putin’s long-term plan is to absorb Ukraine. Maybe he’ll be willing to accept less than the whole thing as an outcome of this war, but you can bet whatever he takes will be used as a starting point for the next war. And there will be a next war if Putin is around to prosecute it.
Old School
@WaterGirl:
Here are a couple articles about it, but explanations for the no votes aren’t present:
—
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: Wow, i love that bill now that I’ve seen it. I had only heard abut it in principle. Can it pass the senate?
Martin
@RaflW: It’s not a base now. They can’t win a national election. They are hoping to make up in intensity and fraud what they don’t have in demographics.
Geminid
@Searcher: They have to take Odesa before they connect with Transnistria. So far the Russians have been stymied fighting west from the Crimea. Now they seem to be concentrating their combat power on their eastern offensive. If Ukraine stops them in the east the Russians probably can’t take Odesa.
UncleEbeneezer
@Cameron: Biden should point blank ask every GOP Congressperson what they were doing in Russia on the Fourth of July. Name names. Ask if they are still
beating their wiveswilling Russian assets eager to sell out America to our enemies? What exactly did they promise Putin? It would be irresponsible not to speculate. Etc.Martin
@lowtechcyclist: Different motivations. The squad opposes asset forfeiture as a general policy. Plus, they were free to make a symbolic vote knowing it was going to pass easily.
And I agree with them. I’d feel better about this if asset forfeiture against you know, poor people, wasn’t such a common thing in the US.
zhena gogolia
@Martin: There’s a thing on the left that they can’t support Ukraine in this war. I see it around here. They make snarky comments on zoom meetings, etc. It makes me kind of nauseated.
Geminid
@Martin: Also, Ocasio-Cortez is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Her other party generally opposes sanctions, at least if the target is not Israel.
Martin
Glad to see the significant additional support. Suspect NATO is going to get involved in this before it’s over given the increased committment. I hope Biden hasn’t backed too far into a corner promising no US troops.
Martin
@zhena gogolia: There’s a segment of the west that still believes Russia is communist, and not a capitalist authoritarian state. I don’t think the squad falls in that camp. I do think the squad believes that we should be a bit more uniform with how we conduct foreign policy and are willing to cast symbolic votes in that direction, something that folks here generally agree with up until AOC gets mentioned.
I know a lot of people think that AOC is damaging to the Democratic Party, but I think they should take a step back because AOC is a rock star to the demographic that the Democratic Party need to carry elections. The squad and the progressive caucus are MUCH better at party communication than, well, the folks running the party. AOC is key to pulling the zoomers into the Democratic Party. I don’t agree with all of her policy ideas, but holy shit do I want her running voter outreach because she’s in a whole other league compared to who has been doing it for Dems. Let her cast her symbolic votes.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid: Is she still? I can at least see the argument for having been a DSA member before February 24th. Not anymore.
This has been Morality 101: anyone can tell who the good guys and the bad guys are in this war, but apparently DSA can’t.
And there’s no ‘on the other hand’ here: not taking a side on destroying cities, mass deportations, torture, rape, and murder isn’t something that can be counterbalanced by being on the right side of any number of other issues. (Not that I’m claiming they were, just saying ‘even if.’)
Betty Cracker
@Martin: I agree 100% percent. AOC and her compatriots are the glue that keeps a lot of Zoomer kids stuck to the Democratic Party. Let her cast her symbolic votes.
Hoodie
@Martin: I think they believe that’s a low probability event now that they see that the Russians are not able to quickly roll over the Ukrainians and the logistical train is starting to rev up. I think the 33 billion is like a second round of financing, i.e., the Ukrainians have succeeded at proof of concept, now it’s time to scale up. It also massively overshadows Putin’s pitiful attempts to escalate, e.g., cutting off gas to Poland. Biden is essentially throwing 33 billion into the pot, daring Putin to stay in the game. The Russians can’t afford that.
Roger Moore
@Martin:
I would flip this on its head: we shouldn’t be too worried about seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs until we also stop seizing the assets of poor Americans. To do otherwise is to give the ultra-rich impunity. I’m all for giving up our worst legal practices, but lets start with the people they’re hurting the most rather than the ones who have the resources to fight.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: When the topic came up a few months ago, a jackal from New Mexico who does a lot of Democratic party organizing said that they did not see much effect that Ocasio-Cortez had on the young people they worked with. The jackal had nothing against the Congresswoman, just felt that her influence was overstated.
I wouldn’t know myself. I don’t talk politics with the few people I know under 50. Some of the older white Democrats I know are really impressed by Ocasio-Cortez.
Montanareddog
@lowtechcyclist:
I have found it interesting that it is the Social Democrat Chancellor Scholtz in Germany who has been lukewarm in Ukrainian support, while the Greens in his coalition government have been much more resolute in their support for Ukraine
Bill Arnold
@azlib:
The USSR was defeated in Afghanistan. Arguably literally, though they started leaving in 1987. Ukraine is a considerably more capable adversary relative to Russia than Afghanistan was relative to the USSR.
Russia could withdraw from some of the territory it currently occupies in Ukraine, and dig into the rest. That would be viable, militarily. It’s what they would have done, if the leadership was rational, at the beginning, rather than attempt a regime change/takeover.
Betty Cracker
@Geminid: Some of the folks here who are parents to people in that cohort, including me, can offer different anecdata. But at the end of the day, that’s what it is — anecdata. What hard data I’ve seen seems to confirm that party affiliation is looser among the young.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: Well, Ocasio-Cortez was a member of the DSA when Don McIntosh’s interview of her was published March 21, 2021 by dsausa.org. I haven’t heard that she left the party since this war started.
I think most of the DSA members in or seeking public office are keeping their heads down when it comes to this war. There are a number of DSA members running for local and state office in Democratic primaries in the New York metropolitan area. They are trying to keep the focus on domestic issues, not their party’s foreign policy.
Bill Arnold
@schrodingers_cat:
You were quick with that. :-)
I do wonder if whether it was a trolling operation vs the 4 R votes, on the part of the Dem members of that horseshoe, it being exactly 4 and 4.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: I could not pronounce on Ocasio-Cortez’s influence. But the idea that she is very influential among young people is taken as a fact when it may not be actually be so.
When Ocasio-Cortez appeared in San Antonio with Jessica Cisneros to boost Cisneros’ rematch with Blue Dog Henry Cuellar, it made national headlines. But even after the FBI’s search of Cuellar’s home and campaign headquarters, Cuellar led Cisneros by 2 points in the primary. His margin in 2020 was 4 points. If Ocasio-Cortez moved the needle in that race she did not move it much.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: I shouldn’t speak for the New Mexico jackal. When I tried to volunteer them to do a front page post on political outreach, they demurred. Now they have left the country and I hope I did not chase them away.
But I remember the back and forth they had here on the subject of Ocasio-Cortez’s influence with young people, and they said they did not see it in their experience of recruiting young people to register and vote for Democrats in New Mexico
Actually, I think that O. Felix Culpa was going to Europe anyway. But their response to my suggestion that they post here on political organizing reminded me of the Roadrunner: “MbeepMbeep” and a cloud of dust. But they did describe issues young people in their area were concerned with and that Democrats were engaging them on. A salient one was housing affordability. I had not thought of this, probably because it is not an important issue for me, at least not now.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Geminid: Bernie Sanders, India Walton, Maya Willey…. AOC’s alleged electoral magic tends to seem less impressive outside of indigo-blue CDs. (also Nina Turner, because thinking about that POS losing makes me smile)
Martin
@Roger Moore: No, agreed. But what part of ‘this was a symbolic vote’ are people missing? I guarantee Nancy gave her permission for the squad to vote against this fully confident that it would pass easily.
Geminid
@Martin: I don’t think the “Squad” members ask for the Speaker’s permission on such matters.
Jinchi
I think it’s a mistake to assume that Biden, Zelensky or anyone in the west can construct a ceasefire to Putin’s liking. The only way your hypothetical works is if Putin himself declares ‘I have achieved victory’ and the west simply agrees to let him believe it.
Martin
@Geminid: 2018 had the highest youth voter turnout in generations. 2020 it stayed just as high.
For all the constant whinging that the ‘young vote’ never turns out, the last two elections they fucking carried the day. They were a big part of the 2018 congressional wins. They were a big part of running up Biden’s score. And I’ve got two kids that point to AOC turning out to a Donkey Kong 64 trans rights fundraiser and Hillary Clinton’s oft cringe efforts to win over the young vote as part of why one of them got elected and the other didn’t.
I don’t mean to pile on Hillary here, but if representation matters, it matters for everyone. I’m a Gen X, which means my generation is completely forgotten in every context. Boomers have completely frozen out my gen in politics. Zoomers aren’t putting up with that shit. Boomers need to retire. Look around the world. Look at young women running countries from Finland to New Zealand. Macron is 44. So is Zelenskyy. We consider Kamala to be unusually young, and she’s 57.
Let the young people have their say and space. They aren’t idiots. Culturally they are in a VERY different space than those of us 50+ and we won’t fucking get out of the way.
J R in WV
WE ARE THE ALIENZ!! !!
AxelFoley
@Betty Cracker: She really doesn’t have the influence you think she does.
Martin
@Geminid: We can’t both hold that Pelosi has unprecedented control of the Dem caucus and ‘here are these groups of progressives that are out of control’ as simultaneous ideas. Unlike Manchin/Sinema, the squad and the progressive caucus show up when needed.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Martin:
I’m gonna crawl out on a limb and say the differences in the respective constituencies that elected them, (and didn’t), NY-14 vs the entire country (and the electoral college), played a role in that, too.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Hillary Clinton got 77% of the vote in NY14 in 2016. AOC (!) got 71.2% in 2020
evodevo
@RaflW: It’s why the right wingers are charging so hard in the culture war…they KNOW from their own analyses they are losing ground badly, and they are frantic to reverse the trend. They hope to use state govt. to do that, which is why you are seeing all these anti -‘bortion and anti-gay laws proliferating.
Geminid
@Martin: I’m all for younger Democratic politicians making their way in the party. I am particularly impressed by Lauren Underwood, who I think is 33 years old. Cindy Axne is in her thirties, and Abigail Spanberger and Sharice Davids are in their early forties and I think highly of all three, especially because they flipped red districts which is something the “Squad” members did not do and could never do.
Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries is in his early fifties and a member of your Generation X. Jeffries is one of the most impressive Democratic politcians I’ve seen in a long time. So while some people like to bemoan the “gerontocracy,” I feel like the Democrats have strong representation among younger politicians. I don’t think it’s future is the “Squad,” though, but rather Representatives like Porter, Neguse, Underwood , and Davids.
zhena gogolia
@Geminid: I agree
evodevo
@WaterGirl: Yes..it was mentioned somewhere about taking the money that would go to Putin for natty gas payments or whatever, and just giving it to Ukraine for reparations…don’t know the legal feasibility of that, however..
Steve in the ATL
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: and Hillary won a statewide race to become a U.S. senator, whereas AOC has won only a single CD
Geminid
@Martin: Well, I don’t hold that Speaker Pelosi has “unprecedented control” over her caucus and “here are these groups of progressives who are out of control” as simultaneous ideas so what’s your point?
Geminid
People confidently assert that “Squad” members vote against their Caucus’ majority with leadership’s “permission” with no factual basis for that assertion. No one in leadership is saying otherwise, but that doesn’t neccesarily mean that much considering the narrow majotity they have to deal with.
Sloane Ranger
@wetzel:
So, in your opinion, the armed forces of Europe should fight, bleed and die for the US, while the US itself sits on the sidelines whistling Dixie? Presumably you’ll be charging us for every bullet, tank and drone you sell us. How very WWII of you!
Seriously, do you know how entitled you sound?
cain
@RaflW: Well duh – they aren’t even practicing Christianity – they’re doing some wierd thing that funds Billionaires and mega church pastors so they can live the good life – drugs, sex, and vacations.
The mega church thing is some kind of new business venture.
Read this – https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/u1750s/what_ruined_religion_for_you/
the stories.. makes you shake your head.
cain
@Betty Cracker: They’ll have to get rid of voting – they might win a battle but they are going to lose the war in the end. Plus, there is less and less money to extract from these people. For many, it’s just a business that they can enrich themselves.
Ksmiami
@Sloane Ranger: Eh not worth a response- If Russia attempted a direct hit on the US, we would incinerate the entire country in 15 fucking minutes-
Ishiyama
@Martin: My generation famously did not trust anybody over 30!
BrianM
@lashonharangue: Nerd alert: shipwrecks make for lousy coral reefs. The iron feeds the bad kind of algae, which outcompetes the actual coral, starting a doom loop. Hat tip to Ed Yong’s I Contain Multitudes. Here’s a paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/ismej2011114