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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Update 67: 100 People Were Evacuated From Mariupol Today

War for Ukraine Update 67: 100 People Were Evacuated From Mariupol Today

by Adam L Silverman|  May 1, 202210:30 pm| 46 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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We begin tonight with President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. The transcript is after the jump (emphasis mine).

Ukrainians!

Our defenders!

Today we finally managed to start the evacuation of people from Azovstal. After many weeks of negotiations, after many attempts, different meetings, people, calls, countries, proposals. Finally! There was not a single day when we did not try to find a solution that would save our people.

Today, for the first time in all the days of the war, this vital corridor has started working. For the first time there were two days of real ceasefire on this territory. More than a hundred civilians have already been evacuated – women and children first of all. Who were fleeing hostilities there. At Azovstal. 

Given all the complexities of the process, the first evacuees will arrive in Zaporizhzhia tomorrow morning. Hopefully this doesn’t fail. Our team will meet them there. I hope that tomorrow all the necessary conditions will be met to continue the evacuation of people from Mariupol. We plan to start at 8 am.

I am also grateful to all those who participated in the preparation of the rescue of people and who ensure this humanitarian corridor. I am grateful to everyone who held negotiations. To Iryna Vereshchuk as the coordinator of this process.

I am grateful to our intelligence. Our team – David, Andriy. And also to the partners who joined and managed to help. In particular, from the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross.

We will continue to do everything to evacuate our people from Azovstal, from Mariupol in general. The organization of such humanitarian corridors is one of the elements of the ongoing negotiation process. It is very complex. But no matter how difficult it was, more than 350,000 people were rescued from the areas of hostilities.

I discussed key issues of assistance to our state with Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi who visited Kyiv together with a US Congress delegation.

We are grateful to all partners who convey such important and powerful signals of support for Ukraine to the world and to Russia by visiting our capital in these conditions and at such a difficult time.

Mrs. Pelosi and I had four hours of very substantive negotiations, as they say, multifaceted. In particular, on defense supplies, macro-financial assistance, sanctions policy, political cooperation with the United States.

I thanked for the revival of the historic Lend-Lease program, which once helped protect freedom in Europe and can certainly do so a second time. We discussed specific areas – how Lend-Lease can work to strengthen our state as much as possible and help in the struggle for freedom.

I also thanked for the preparation of a large package of aid to Ukraine worth 33 billion US dollars.

We discussed how we can strengthen sanctions on Russia in a way that most effectively encourages it to end the war and limits Russia’s ability to circumvent existing and future sanctions. I felt the support of our initiatives.

I awarded Mrs. Pelosi with the Order of Princess Olga for her significant personal contribution to strengthening our cooperation and sincere participation in the defense of freedom.

Today, Russian troops continued to strike at the territory of our state. The targets they choose prove once again that the war against Ukraine is a war of extermination for the Russian army. They targeted the warehouses of agricultural enterprises. The grain warehouse was destroyed. The warehouse with fertilizers was also shelled. They continued shelling of residential neighborhoods in the Kharkiv region, Donbas, etc.

They are accumulating forces in the south of the country to try to attack our cities and communities in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

What could be Russia’s strategic success in this war? Honestly, I do not know. The ruined lives of people and the burned or stolen property will give nothing to Russia. It will only increase the toxicity of the Russian state and the number of those in the world who will work to isolate Russia.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine respond to all the attacks of the invaders. And they will continue to respond until the occupiers leave our land.

I am grateful to all our defenders. To everyone who has been defending the state since February 24 and since 2014.

In just 67 days of the full-scale war, 143 our warriors have already been awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine. More than 10,600 defenders have been awarded state awards of Ukraine.

Eternal glory to all who stood up for the state!

Eternal memory to all who gave life for Ukraine! Thank you.

Glory to Ukraine!

We’ll have more on the evacuations from Mariupol a little further down in the post.

Here’s today’s operational update from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (emphasis mine):

The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 06.00 on May 1, 2022

The sixty-seventh day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.

russian enemy continues to conduct full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine and offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone.

To increase the pace of the offensive operation, the command of the armed forces of the russian federation continues to take measures to strengthen the strike potential of its troops. Weapons and military equipment removed from storage in the Western, Central, Eastern Military Districts and the Northern Fleet are transferred to the border areas with Ukraine by rail.

In the Volyn and Polissya directions, russian enemy did not take active action. There have been no significant changes in the situation in these areas.

Certain units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus continue to cover the border in Brest and Gomel regions.

There is a threat that the enemy will launch missile strikes on military and civilian infrastructure throughout Ukraine from the territory of the republic of belarus, as well as provocations by the enemy on the specified section of the state border of Ukraine.

In the Siversky direction, russian enemy units fired on the positions of our troops from the territory of the Bryansk region.

In the Slobozhansky direction, russian enemy group continues to carry out air strikes and artillery fire on Kharkiv. The occupiers are conducting offensive operations in the directions of Izium – Barvinkove and Izium – Slovyansk. The enemy’s strike group continues to strengthen. Up to 300 weapons and military equipment were transferred to certain areas, and about a thousand mobilized persons arrived from the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

In order to cover the advancing air forces in four designated areas, the enemy deployed two anti-aircraft missile divisions armed with Buk-M2 (SA-17 “Grizzly”) and Tor-M (SA-15 “Gauntlet”).

In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, groups of russian enemy troops are conducting active operations along the entire section of the line of contact. The enemy is trying to carry out air strikes and artillery fire on the positions of our troops.

In the Lyman direction, russian enemy is advancing in the direction of Krymka and Oleksandrivka.

In the Popasna direction, russian occupiers are carrying out assault operations in the direction of Novotoshkivske – Orikhove and they are fixed on the reached borders. In order to prevent the maneuver of Ukrainian forces and means, they are blocking them in certain areas.

In the Kurakhiv direction, with the support of artillery, russian enemy is trying to break through the defenses of our units in the direction of Olenivka – Novomykhailivka.

In the South Buh direction, the enemy is fighting to reach the administrative borders of the Kherson oblast and create favorable conditions for the attack on the cities of Mykolayiv and Kryvyi Rih.

The previous day, the air defence units hit nine air targets: two Su-25 aircraft and seven UAVs.

In the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts only, nine enemy attacks have been repulsed in the past 24 hours, eight tanks, one artillery system, twenty-four units of armored combat vehicles, one special vehicle and five vehicles (including two tankers) have been destroyed.

We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Let’s win together!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s today’s assessment from the British MOD:

And here’s their updated map:

You can see that there is not a lot of change since yesterday. Something I want to point out, just to make sure we’re all aware of it, is that the line that Russia is attacking along, which snakes around eastern and southern Ukraine starting where the Eastern Military District (MD) box is north of Izium all the way down to Kherson and Mykolaiv in the south is about 400 miles long. That is a lot of geography to cover with the troops that Russia has available. In reality it is too much to cover. They are, at best, stretched thin. Which is to Ukraine’s advantage.

There was no DOD background briefing today. Or if there was one, they haven’t posted a transcript yet.

Mariupol:

Civilians getting rescued with the help of Ukrainian troops at the Azovstal ?? pic.twitter.com/nf7MPB3swH

— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) May 1, 2022

.@OCHA_Ukraine spokesperson Saviano Abreu confirms the Mariupol evacuation is underway. “The efforts are coordinated by the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross, in coordination with the parties to the conflict.” pic.twitter.com/YxX4CJpDu6

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 1, 2022

The first photos of the civilians' evacuation from Azovstal in Mariupol – by Reuters pic.twitter.com/xlp2LH2rGs

— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) May 1, 2022

The reporting is that the Russians bombarded the Azovstal complex, again, overnight. So the Mariupolians are not out of the woods.

From what I can tell the plan is to get as many out for as many days as they can keep the evacuation corridor open until the Azovstal complex is emptied and everyone sheltering in it is temporarily relocated to Zaporizhzhia before being relocated to more permanent housing. If they can get at least a hundred out a day, like they did today, they should be able to have everyone evacuated in nine more days.

Here’s OCHA’s statement on the evacuation:

Keep good thoughts!!!!

At the same time, Russian forces are still doing their best to reduce Mariupol:

"This video is a clear demonstration of why civilians in #Mariupol, including those hiding in the #Azovstal plant, are afraid to come out of basements," — reads the video review

Credit: Ukraine Now /2 pic.twitter.com/uKYJTRuu9J

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) May 1, 2022

Here’s reporting by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) regarding the Russian filtration (processing) camps in and around Mariupol:

Maria Vdovychenko says she’ll never forget the conversation she overheard before being screened by Russian soldiers as she and her family were fleeing the siege of Mariupol.

“What did you do with people who didn’t pass the filtration?” one of the soldiers asked.

“Shot 10 and stopped counting — not interested,” came the reply.

Traveling with her mother and younger sister, the 17-year-old Vdovychenko and her father were two of an estimated 30,000 Ukrainians so far to undergo “filtration,” Moscow’s alleged campaign to catch and punish perceived enemies or others deemed somehow unreliable from among the war’s refugees.

Accusations have followed that Ukrainians ensnared in the occupation forces’ vetting are being killed or “disappeared,” or forcibly deported to Siberia and other Russian destinations, in the latest indication of possible war crimes by Russia in the 9-week-old offensive.

Moscow has denied committing atrocities and routinely blames Ukrainian forces for civilian deaths and other abuses in a war that Russian censorship prohibits from being described as a “war” at all.

‘My Legs Started To Tremble’

Ukrainian officials have accused Russian forces of transporting hundreds of thousands of civilians from shattered Ukrainian cities, taking their documents, and putting them in so-called “filtration” camps, before moving them to Russia.

Vdovychenko told Current Time that her family’s experience was not of any kind of filtration “settlement” but a bottleneck to screen families like hers.

Her family had waited two days and nights in their car to leave Mariupol, a strategic port city on the Sea of Azov, which local officials now say has been essentially “razed” by weeks of bombardment and its remaining occupants deprived of electricity, gas, and water.

“There was a column of hundreds of cars,” Vdovychenko said. “You can’t even use a toilet. Your legs are swollen. Your whole body hurts.”

Her mother and her 12-year-old sister were both spared the filtration, even though the Russians had made it known that anyone 14 or over would be screened.

She said she had steeled herself for a “very difficult” ordeal but was terrified to find herself alone in a room with five armed men, while her father was undergoing his own interrogation, which included a beating.

She was fingerprinted, her documents scanned, and her smartphone scoured for signs of disloyalty to the forces currently occupying wide swaths of her homeland.

Then, when it seemed to be nearly over, one of the men appeared to allude to rape, which Human Rights Watch (HRW) and other groups say has become a feature of Europe’s biggest military invasion since World War II.

“My legs started to tremble when a soldier who was lying on a mattress said: ‘Don’t you like her? There will be more women later. We’ll find something,'” Vdovychenko said. “They didn’t like me, and they just kicked me out.”

She said she wasn’t allowed to wait with her father, who was bullied and beaten and at one point asked by an interrogator: “How about we cut off your ear?”

He didn’t know how the interview ended, Vdovychenko said, since he said he was struck in the head and only regained consciousness on the pavement outside.

More than two dozen checkpoints later, with no more “filtration” along the way, she and her family eventually reached territory controlled by the Ukrainian government.

“Even the sky was different there. It was clean. There was none of that dust that’s kicked up and hangs in the air from the explosions. We started to hope that we can settle our lives. We deserve it, after all those horrors. We really wanted to live.”

Much more at the link!

I’m not really sure where this happened in Ukraine, but another Russian war crime. And an especially despicable and disgusting one:

Another horrible story from the #Kyiv region.#russians killed a woman. Then they tied her live child to her corpse… and put a bomb between them.

When rescue workers tried to save the child, the mine detonated.

The story was confirmed by ??Minister of Defense#RussiaWarCrimes

— Inna Sovsun (@InnaSovsun) May 1, 2022

I’ve seen more reporting, now from legitimate sources, that the Ukrainian attack at the forward command post near Izium killed another Russian general – the guy in charge of electronic warfare – and wounded General Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian general staff (equivalent to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff). However, those sources can’t fully confirm the reports. So this most likely happened, but other than noting what I’ve just noted, that’s all I’ve got on it. For now. Until we get actual confirmation. Rather than sort of confirmation.

Everyone clear?

If you’re interested, here’s video of the Ukrainian strike on that Russian forward command post:

Higher definition video of MLRS strikes by Ukraine's 93rd Mechanized Brigade on a reported Russian command post in Zabavne near Izyum.https://t.co/c4dv0Yiekvhttps://t.co/qrmfxCQO6ehttps://t.co/Ispqcfyn8o pic.twitter.com/4pxxJBluKc

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 30, 2022

Here’s an interesting thread by retired Royal Air Force Air Marshal Stringer. The rest of the thread follows the initial tweet in a quote box to keep Twitter’s code from breaking the site. He quote tweets several other threads and articles. I’ve been able to copy and past the links to some, but not all, so click across to get the full experience.

A few thoughts triggered by the prevalence of heuristics – instinctive, learned responses – especially w.r.t. assumptions of mass and might. Principally the enduring assumption that Russia has latent capital reserves of mass it can 'liquidise' into combat power. 1/15

— Edward Stringer?? (@edwardstrngr) April 29, 2022

  • The FT published a ‘long read’ that demonstrates such thinking, citing “western officials” who reveal that Russia will get its act together militarily when it fights “as they were trained to fight”. This is a heuristic response. So can Russia do that? 2/15
  • It is increasingly difficult to see Russia being able to mobilise a large reserve much within a year. So its troops in the Donbas are what it has. (There are lessons here for general assumptions on generating mass: if even Russia cannot…) 3/15
  • Most estimates place >80K RUS troops in BTGs against >40K UKR in good defensive positions. This is not a good ratio for any attacking force – even with firepower. But can it ‘fight like its doctrine’ under its new, centralised commander: Dvornikov? 4/15
  • My own experience makes me sceptical that he & it can. 5Eyes Generals will admit only the US Army can train effectively at Corps or Army level – and it is complicated, hard, and needs repeated exercising to master. Mark Hertling gives a flavour: 5/15
  • Also, Dvornikov will need to build a C2 apparatus for his new, huge, command. How will he fuse the previous regional C2? Will he take the southern command and expand it to sit above, or build anew? How will he train the staff for it? 6/15
  • And that decades old, corrupt & bankrupt RUS military culture is not going to change overnight. Yes, the Darwinian instinct will teach the BTGs how to be less vulnerable, but don’t expect great flourishes of manouevre warfare. 7/15
  • And then there is the logistics. Fast armoured warfare relies on equal dash from the loggies. We just don’t see it. And every mile further into UKR territory is another vulnerability from extension, and exposure to a hostile pop’n. 8/15
  • Russia is caught between needing a lightning offensive campaign to achieve a bold victory, and not being able or capable enough to risk its remaining force in such a move. It has neither the assumed mass of the East nor the skill of the West. 9/15
  • So when you see maps with dramatic, pincing arrows suggesting RUS’ next move, think on what each of those easy to draw symbols means in all-arms manoeuvre, logistic support, and then holding the territory taken. 10/15
  • UKR must work out how much ground it is willing to trade while writing down RUS through attrition. Some assess UKR now has more tanks. But it needs more long-range artillery, and a CONOPs for going on the offensive eventually with smaller numbers. 11/15
  • Which is why the Biden administrations announcement of $33Bn is so significant. It has bought time for UKR to work out what its modern CONOPs and theory of victory looks like, as long as it can contain current RUS pressure. 12/15
  • Two things remain. The threat of nuclear weapons should retain its awe. But proper statecraft can manage this as long as NATO does not get directly involved, ie the escalation remains sub-strategic. See
    @LawDavF below: 13/15 https://samf.substack.com/p/escalators-a
  • And to best do that NATO must ensure it does not get directly involved, where a route to an existential rationale for RUS is easier to draw. Our rhetoric on these two points needs to be careful and deliberate. 14/15
  • But my overall conclusion has not changed. There is no room for complacency, but a well-sustained UKR can prevail and defeat the invasion of its territory. It is in everyone’s interests that it does, and the US has just put down a big bet. 15/15

Last week the Ukrainian news outlets reported on the death in combat of a Ukrainian fighter pilot. He was shot down by the Russians. I didn’t include it in an update, because while sad, it wasn’t that major an event except to his family. Since then several news outlets, including The Times of London, have since reported that the Russians have shot down and killed The Ghost of Kyiv. This got so out of hand that the Ukrainian MOD had to issue a statement:

The information about the death of the The Ghost of #Kyiv is incorrect. The #GhostOfKyiv is alive, it embodies the collective spirit of the highly qualified pilots of the Tactical Aviation Brigade who are successfully defending #Kyiv and the region.

— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) May 1, 2022

 

As much as we all like a good story, especially when the underdog in the story is punching well above their weight class, we also all know there is no Ghost of Kyiv. It’s a popular myth/legend meant to help inspire the Ukrainian people in their defense. So just so we’re all clear: the Russians did not shoot down and kill The Ghost of Kyiv, because there is no actual Ghost of Kyiv. Just a lot of Ukrainian aviators doing everything they can to defend Ukraine and their fellow Ukrainians against Putin’s reinvasion.

Belgorod appears to be exploding again!

There were possibly two explosions in Belgorod tonight.https://t.co/dHXxzLiYZq

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 2, 2022

Last night in the comments someone, and I apologize for not remembering who, asked about the ethnic make up of the Russian army. Fortunately, Julia Ioffe covered this in an interview she did with Olga Mutovina for Puck News about a week or so ago:

Julia Ioffe: Why are there so many residents of Buryatia among the dead in Ukraine?

Olga Mutovina: Buryatia is one of the poorest regions of Russia. There isn’t a lot of work, there isn’t much industry, and the men mostly go elsewhere to work for stints—on oil rigs, in gold mines, some kind of extractive work. Or they can become contract soldiers. For young men, it provides some social mobility in a context where there’s nowhere to work and not much in the way of higher education. We spoke to some families of soldiers who had been killed and they told us that this wasn’t these soldiers’ first war. Many of them had already fought in Syria and, in 2014, Ukraine.

Unlike [the neighboring] Irkutsk Oblast, which has oil and gas and lots of industry, Buryatia is a deeply [federally] subsidized region and so the amount of money that the region gets [from Moscow] is connected to how loyal its residents are, how they vote in elections, so people here mostly support the government. There isn’t much of a protest movement here.

The Buryat men who become contract soldiers are mostly from poor, rural families. We’ve spoken to many relatives who said that if there had been good work for their men, maybe they wouldn’t have signed up. Some of them come back from mandatory military service, try to establish themselves in civilian life, and then realize that they could earn a lot more in the army and they go back.

We spoke to one family [of a soldier who was killed in Ukraine] who said that he loved sports and working with children. He wanted to become a coach. But his salary was 7,000 rubles [$86] a month. He had a family to support: by the time he was killed, he had five children.

Much, much, much more at the link!

Your semi daily, seems like daily at this point, but eventually I’ll run out of new video…, Patron!

His name is Patron. He helps de-mining Ukraine. He is a legend here. #dogsofukraine #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/8HxZIqQEdM

— olexander scherba?? (@olex_scherba) May 1, 2022

Your semi daily Chef Jose Andres (same dynamic as with Patron):

We will be ready Mr. President with @WCKitchen with food and waiting in case we can go to Mariupol to feed the thousands…#FoodFighters https://t.co/eDSrf2wXys

— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) May 1, 2022

Open thread!

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Previous Post: « Excellent Read: ‘How Zelenskyy Leads’
Next Post: Pre-Dawn Monday Respite Open Thread »

Reader Interactions

46Comments

  1. 1.

    tybee

    May 1, 2022 at 10:47 pm

    thanks again for your efforts to keep up updated…

  2. 2.

    debbie

    May 1, 2022 at 10:48 pm

    Despite his stupid questions, Scott Pelley interviewed the head of the U.N.’s World Food Program who’s also trying to get into Mariupol.

  3. 3.

    Ishiyama

    May 1, 2022 at 10:48 pm

    I foresee the Ukrainian forces counter-attacking through Kherson and rolling up the road to Melitopol. Soon, soon …

  4. 4.

    CCL

    May 1, 2022 at 10:48 pm

    Thank you, Adam.

  5. 5.

    The Pale Scot

    May 1, 2022 at 10:49 pm

    So much of RU “culture” is theft from UA and Tartars

     

    ‘We Ukrainians know how to turn suffering into strength’: Gogol Bordello’s Eugene Hütz on his musical resistanc

     

    Westerners have told Hütz they “can’t really process how come there’s so much TikTok, YouTube and Instagram clips from the frontline of people in the trenches with instruments, making music and singing and letting the steam out. They almost find it to be baffling, but that’s not baffling at all if you’re Ukrainian – this is how we do it.” In historical Ukrainian paintings, he says, “you will find scenes where a Cossack is sitting with a sword and a musical instrument across his shoulders”.

  6. 6.

    Mike in NC

    May 1, 2022 at 11:09 pm

    Putin seems to be drawing lots of poorly trained conscripts from Central Asia and Siberia, and very few from Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Cannon fodder.

  7. 7.

    Alison Rose ???

    May 1, 2022 at 11:13 pm

    Thank you, Adam. Zelenskyy’s video tonight felt particularly…I don’t want to say emotional because that’s not exactly what I mean, but emotion-filled or something. I don’t know. My brain is barely functioning lately.

    Thank you for the Patron videos, too. What a good pupper. Though the choice of showing him scampering off and then an explosion was a bit jarring, heh.

  8. 8.

    Another Scott

    May 1, 2022 at 11:30 pm

    Part of a Galeev thread:

    Judging from social media some Russians in Crimea are preparing to leave:

    "Lukashenko is negotiating with Ukraine. It means Putin lost the war"

    "After Mariupol they won't spare even civilians"

    "Khokhols won't forgive Bucha and Mariupol"

    "They'll bomb the bridge and we r trapped" pic.twitter.com/7pSzLIQkXC

    — Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) May 2, 2022

    VVP cares about Crimea much, much more than he does about Donbas. There’s the whole Crimean War history, Tolstoy’s Sevastopol Sketches, etc., etc. If/when Ukraine takes it back, that’s when it will be obvious that Putin’s disaster cannot be hidden back home any more.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  9. 9.

    terry chay

    May 1, 2022 at 11:30 pm

    @Ishiyama: I wish it were true, but I doubt it. I remember the Gulf War.

    Operation Desert Shield seemed interminably long, and when they went on the offensive with Desert Storm, there was a long bit where it was just an air war before, in about 4 days of ground combat, it was over.

    I’m not saying Ukraine doesn’t have the capability, in fact I’ve been saying for a month now that they will win this war right down to taking back that which Russia took in 2014. But Western militaries do not act like a video game and take unnecessary risks when they can have clear objectives and are working on the execution that guarantees them. Ukraine now thinks like the West. There seems to be a level of competence here that I find very impressive.

    It’ll happen but I don’t think soon. There is no urgency outside Mariupol and maybe Kherson (but even then I doubt it). Ukraine is not yet positioned to relieve either soon. Getting a guarantee of $33bln is being in it for the long haul. Likely it’ll seem like nothing is happening until the inevitable happens and Russia’s positions collapse. Who knows when, but I wouldnt bet on soon since it seems like an unnecessary risk.

  10. 10.

    Another Scott

    May 1, 2022 at 11:39 pm

    @The Pale Scot: Obligatory…

    Ukrainian soldiers showing their true spirit at every moment possible! #SoundUp#SlavaUkraini #Ghostbusters #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/ivPASf96Oo

    — Dr. Bashir (commentary) (@drbashir2018) April 30, 2022

    :-)

    (via gavmacn)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  11. 11.

    terry chay

    May 1, 2022 at 11:42 pm

    @Mike in NC: Those who live in the cities know how to avoid conscription.

    This is magnified as IT work is now an automatic exemption. It is estimated that they’ve lost between 70k-300k IT workers since the war began. That’s 5-15% of this workforce segment. These workers are not replaceable by people in Central Asia.

    Finally, there just aren’t that many young slabs. Their birth rate is very low since the fall of the Soviet Union which, doing the math, is 30 years ago!

    The dying is done by people in poor parts of Russia. The places where people are all “Z-crazy” are basically pensioners who expect that the government will continue to pay them enough for a quality of life that was why they threw their chips in with Putin 20 years ago. They don’t know it, but they’ve already paid a gigantic “tax” through capital controls to prop up the ruble and it’s about to get worse as, while oil is like 20% of their GDP and the rising prices means they’ve more than made up for the sanctions to that industry. Now that oil money has to support the other 80% as well as the war that’s costing them at least a half billion a day (almost half their entire European oil and natural gas revenue by itself).

  12. 12.

    Major Major Major Major

    May 1, 2022 at 11:49 pm

    Oh thank goodness they’ve managed to start evacuating that plant.

  13. 13.

    Damien

    May 2, 2022 at 12:05 am

    @Another Scott: Well, there’s definitely something strange in their neighborhood, but I suspect they’re gonna be making a lot more ghosts before the busting finishes up.

     

    But bustin’ makes em feel good :p

  14. 14.

    Martin

    May 2, 2022 at 12:12 am

    Still a lot of conflicting information about Gerasimov. Gonna need a proof of life video of him.

  15. 15.

    Ishiyama

    May 2, 2022 at 12:19 am

    @terry chay: You are probably right that a counteroffensive won’t be launched prematurely, and I only hope that it will be ready sooner rather than later. I was guessing where it might be when it comes.

  16. 16.

    Urza

    May 2, 2022 at 12:28 am

    @terry chay: Do you have links to show that Europe is using $0.5 billion of gas a day?  And still paying for new deliveries since the sanctions began?

    I feel like Europe is going to need large amounts of electrical heating to arrive for next winter.  I know my datacenters across Europe have been asked to reduce power consumption with the expectation that the grid will be needed for other things.  Last time that happened was Brexit and figuring out if Ireland would have enough power since most of it flows through the UK now.  We do try to use as much renewable as possible, but thats on the main grid and not dedicated even if we subsidize.

  17. 17.

    Redshift

    May 2, 2022 at 12:28 am

    I haven’t had much to add lately, but I continue to appreciate the updates, Adam. Looking forward to confirmation of the latest Russian general tally, when there’s solid confirmation.

  18. 18.

    Carlo Graziani

    May 2, 2022 at 12:43 am

    @Martin: NYT is reporting that Gerasimov was not killed in the attack.

    What he hoped to accomplish by this visit is beyond my comprehension. Did he think he would see the One Bad Thing Holding The Russian Army Back, so he could shoot it, and fly back to Moscow? How do the generals in this army even reason?

  19. 19.

    Carlo Graziani

    May 2, 2022 at 12:51 am

    The Edward Stringer thread makes total sense to me. The dissent, if it’s that, is on the NBC use. I believe that the US is deterring that already, with the threat of all-in NATO intervention at the first sign of Russian combat use of NBC. But that may merely be reformulation.

  20. 20.

    Geminid

    May 2, 2022 at 12:56 am

    @Urza: Natural gas suppliers can pick up some of the slack. Secretary Blinken was in Algeria a couple weeks ago, and reports are that he pressed them to start to increase production. Algeria supplies ~10% of EU gas now. Libya might ship more of a settlement of some kind to it’s civil war is reached.

    Both countries ship gas to Europe through pipelines across the Mediterranean. Other countries ship LNG on tankers and there may be potential new capacity there, at least in the short and medium term. But both development of renewable energy and of conservation still have to accelerate.

  21. 21.

    oldster

    May 2, 2022 at 1:06 am

    “… the enemy deployed two anti-aircraft missile divisions armed with Buk-M2 (SA-17 “Grizzly”) and Tor-M (SA-15 “Gauntlet”).”

    Not so subtle use of NATO reporting names for the equipment. Zelensky just letting us know: Ukraine is ready to integrate into the NATO defense system right now.

    On that MRLS strike that killed some brass: I read a report that the US sometimes likes to camouflage a precision strike by following it with a flurry of less-accurate dumb-bomb strikes. Then we can claim that we just got lucky, in order to avoid revealing Intel.

    Watching that video, doesn’t it seem to begin with a big strike directly in the center of the camera’s picture, followed by a flurry of smaller strikes all around it? That makes me wonder whether that first strike might not be a different delivery system.

  22. 22.

    oldster

    May 2, 2022 at 1:14 am

    Here’s that link on precision strikes that I mentioned above:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/jackmcd83/status/1520885463762014208

  23. 23.

    prostratedragon

    May 2, 2022 at 1:23 am

    @The Pale Scot: Those guys are great. Learned of them years ago on Mountain Stage radio, then gradually forgot their name. They’re touring up and down the east coast this very week, with dates shown at this link:

    “Terobona,” Gogol Bordello,

    dedicated “to incredible courage of Civil Defense units of Ukraine.”

  24. 24.

    Andrya

    May 2, 2022 at 1:39 am

    @Another Scott:  I agree with your cultural references (with respect to Putin and the Crimea) but I think there is another thing that is equally or more important:  Russia has a huge naval/submarine base at Sevastopol in the Crimea.  Full disclosure: in 2014 I thought Russia was only after securing the naval base, and would not extend territorial aggression beyond Crimea.

    Obviously, I was completely wrong about this.

    I can only compare Putin’s miscalculation with Hitler’s mistake in declaring war on the US Dec. 11, 1941.

  25. 25.

    patrick II

    May 2, 2022 at 1:39 am

    @Urza:

    How much energy goes to cryptocurrency farms in Europe?  At a time when energy use should be at a premium, that seems such an extravagant waste.

  26. 26.

    patrick II

    May 2, 2022 at 1:42 am

    @oldster:

    It also makes me wonder who or what was shooting video at that particular time and place.

  27. 27.

    BeautifulPlumage

    May 2, 2022 at 1:47 am

    Oryx (Stijn Mitzer, @oryxspioenkop) retweeted pics of another section of railway in Russia that was damaged. A bridge was blown up but the tracks and ties still cross the span. Located in Kursk Oblast near Sudza

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1520784463839604743?cxt=HHwWjsC9sbLa9JoqAAAA

    They also retweeted graphics showing recent flight patterns of NATO & Swedish planes

  28. 28.

    BeautifulPlumage

    May 2, 2022 at 1:53 am

    @Alison Rose ???:  my same reaction. Not the best ending to an otherwise lovely video

  29. 29.

    oldster

    May 2, 2022 at 2:03 am

    @patrick II:

    Right — the UAV was clearly loitering right there, knowing where to look. And the first boom happens right where it’s looking.

    If I fire off a salvo of twenty dumb rockets that splash all over, it’s a bit surprising that the first one is dead on.

  30. 30.

    oldster

    May 2, 2022 at 2:03 am

    @patrick II:

    Right — the UAV was clearly loitering right there, knowing where to look. And the first boom happens right where it’s looking.

    If I fire off a salvo of twenty dumb rockets that splash all over, it’s a bit surprising that the first one is dead on.

  31. 31.

    oldster

    May 2, 2022 at 2:03 am

    @patrick II:

    Right — the UAV was clearly loitering right there, knowing where to look. And the first boom happens right where it’s looking.

    If I fire off a salvo of twenty dumb rockets that splash all over, it’s a bit surprising that the first one is dead on.

  32. 32.

    oldster

    May 2, 2022 at 2:04 am

    duplicate

  33. 33.

    Martin

    May 2, 2022 at 2:06 am

    @Urza: I don’t have a link, but gas imports are down by ⅓, oil by around 60%, and coal down by about 90%. The problem is that prices went up by a large enough amount that they aren’t really shoveling money into Russia any slower despite the cutbacks.

  34. 34.

    Martin

    May 2, 2022 at 2:15 am

    @oldster: I’d bet anything that was an Excalibur round off of probably the only NATO gun in that area followed up by a bunch of Warsaw Pact artillery exactly as you note. Would further bet that the US gave them the GPS coordinates of that structure.

  35. 35.

    Martin

    May 2, 2022 at 2:17 am

    @patrick II: Probably about what Moldova consumes, give or take. The European Central Bank just said they’d start regulating crypto, so hopefully that’s the direction they’re going. They need to do it quickly though.

  36. 36.

    JoyceH

    May 2, 2022 at 2:37 am

    Today it occurred to me that the Ukraine War seems to be taking place in an alternate universe – one in which there is no pandemic. Do people still get COVID there? Because it sure doesn’t seem to be mentioned. Lots of people in motion, staying with other people in cramped shelters, I’d think that would be a breeding group. And the same for the Russians, moving large numbers of people into unfamiliar territory. I suppose the COVID numbers will be buried in the overall war casualties, I think that’s what happened in the early days of the Spanish Flu epidemic.

  37. 37.

    Martin

    May 2, 2022 at 2:44 am

    @JoyceH: Yeah, Covid is a 2nd order effect there.

  38. 38.

    oldster

    May 2, 2022 at 4:03 am

    Sorry for firing off a salvo of duplicate dumb comments.

  39. 39.

    sab

    May 2, 2022 at 4:26 am

    @oldster: Who here hasn’t done that?

  40. 40.

    oldster

    May 2, 2022 at 5:57 am

    @sab:

    People who are slower on the “Post” button, or quicker on the “Edit” button?

  41. 41.

    Geminid

    May 2, 2022 at 7:28 am

    @Carlo Graziani: Mark Hertling has a 15-part thread on the strike near Izium that killed the general, and the significance of Gerasimov’s presence. I found it on @Cheryl Rofer.

  42. 42.

    charon

    May 2, 2022 at 8:00 am

    https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1520978731833118720

    Appears the first report of Gen Gerasimov being injured at Izyum – like many 1st reports in combat – wasn’t true. But it still begs the question: WTH was the CJCS equivalent doing there, when Gen Dvornikov is allegedly in charge?

  43. 43.

    Carlo Graziani

    May 2, 2022 at 8:42 am

    @charon: A perhaps more cynical take: it was a performative visit by Gerasimov, to curry favor with Putin by showing decisiveness at a time when his stock, and the whole MOD’s, is very low.

    In this interpretation I would say that the play backfired very badly.

  44. 44.

    Jinchi

    May 2, 2022 at 9:18 am

    Higher definition video of MLRS strikes by Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade on a reported Russian command post

    I’m surprised at the video of the strike. The first explosion looks like a direct hit on the target. Most of the rest look scattershot, like a shotgun blast, hitting mostly open ground hundreds of meters from the target. I’m not surprised by the spread as much as the direct hit at the start. Are these different munitions, or am I missing something?

  45. 45.

    Steeplejack

    May 2, 2022 at 9:34 am

    @Jinchi:

    Someone here or at a Twitter link—can’t find it now—pointed out that it is a recognized tactic to use the “shotgun” blasts to disguise the fact that the on-target direct hit was the result of prior intelligence.

  46. 46.

    Carlo Graziani

    May 2, 2022 at 9:37 am

    @charon: @Geminid: The publicity coming out of this news cycle would be the exact opposite of the effect that the good General would  wish to have on Putin. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Gerasimov wishes he had in fact gotten blown up in that headquarters right now.

    I would take either end of a 9:1 bet that he shoots himself by next Sunday.

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