As the mutations march on, with BA2.12.1 25% more transmissible than BA.2, which was 30%+ more transmissible than Omicron BA.1, which was 50% more transmissible than Delta, let's just pretend we're finishedhttps://t.co/mFxh9DbFg9 by @JoelAchenbach
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) May 1, 2022
Indeed. If we were still using just transmission levels, would as many folks feel comfortable unmasked as they do now? Do they even know many areas are back into high transmission metrics? https://t.co/UMwzS6NcQg
— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) April 30, 2022
======
Pandemic progress to its lowest death rate, and we have the means to get this much lower
For context, the approximate average number of worldwide deaths per day for heart disease is 49,000, cancer 27,000, and seasonal flu 1,800 pic.twitter.com/519z5CeUXt— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) May 1, 2022
China reports 7,822 new COVID cases on May 1, down from previous day https://t.co/Dbm8W65FKK pic.twitter.com/OCKXTqu2qP
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 2, 2022
China's Shanghai was dealt a blow as authorities reported 58 new COVID cases outside quarantine areas while Beijing pressed on with testing millions of its people on a May Day holiday https://t.co/RQn1Biwy8V pic.twitter.com/0bhKokCU4Y
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 2, 2022
Things I did not know:
… China is the world’s biggest buyer of meat, bringing in more than 9 million tonnes last year, worth about $32 billion, and the financial hub with a thriving dining scene accounts for the largest chunk of imports.
Traders rely on Shanghai’s ideal location for distributing product around the country, but since an outbreak of COVID-19 cases forced a lockdown in the city at the end of March, moving chilled or frozen products has become a costly headache.
“Unloading containers is actually ok. The real issue is logistics out of the harbour, getting trucks and drivers to pick up the product,” said Soeren Tinggaard, Vice President at the Pinggu Retail & Foodservice business for pork processor Danish Crown.
Frequent COVID tests, lengthy quarantines and long clearance times to enter Shanghai have kept many drivers away, while fewer refrigerated trucks are available because of special licensing requirements.
Other food products, including dairy and edible oils, have also been stuck in the Shanghai port, while beef imports into the city have dropped 23% year-on-year in March. Taken together with other cities under COVID-19 restrictions, the data suggests food exporters like Brazil, the United States and Australia are facing pressure on their trade with the world’s second-biggest economy…
The Shanghai port congestion has also impacted customers elsewhere in China.
“Since April 1, I haven’t got a single piece of meat,” said a Beijing-based trader who normally receives about 3 million yuan ($453,995.16) worth of beef each month from Shanghai.
A two-tonne shipment of chilled U.S. beef worth about 400,000 yuan that arrived more than a month ago is becoming a concern, said the trader.
“If it’s still there after 70 days, most of my customers won’t want it anymore,” he said, declining to be identified because of the sensitivity of speaking out about COVID measures…
Some traders are rerouting product to other ports in China, but deliveries are slow and even then, costs are mounting as cities roll out their own stepped-up COVID protocols.
For trucks arriving into Beijing, product goes to designated central warehouses where it is tested for COVID-19. Once released, some importers have been told they must hold it for up to 14 days and carry out more COVID tests.
Tianjin requires COVID tests on all chilled and frozen foods, including one test on the inside of the packaging, said another Beijing importer. For a bag of Wagyu beef worth about 2,000 yuan, that’s a lot of money down the drain…
I'll test twice a week to save one life a week, why not? Some people spend an hour donating blood every few months. Lots of people give 10 minutes of salary to charity every week. It's literally 10 minutes a week to avoid mass death and disability in my city.
— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) May 1, 2022
Africa's first COVID-19 vaccination plant, touted last year as a trailblazer for an under-vaccinated continent frustrated by sluggish Western handouts, risks shutting down after receiving not a single order, a company executive said on Saturday. https://t.co/aPPI3x25qS
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) May 2, 2022
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A high resolution study of #SARSCoV2 infectiousness: poor correlation with symptoms, extensive variability in shedding ?? @NatureMicrobiol https://t.co/pIoUR5taR1
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) April 28, 2022
======
New York City is drafting new rules that would allow eateries to make outdoor dining permanent. That’s just one of the ways the pandemic has shaped the way the city uses its roadways — giving more space to people, and less to cars. https://t.co/zzGAEDIc03
— The Associated Press (@AP) May 1, 2022
Here are the people who helped end the travel mask mandate & none had any expertise in public health: A vaccine critic, a right-wing Florida judge & 2 clueless travelers. The mask rule on planes had been targeted by the travel industry & Republicans https://t.co/PkyeIVUoyU
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) May 1, 2022
On The Road – Albatrossity – Spring 2022 in Flyover Country – 1
daveNYC
The damn thing is getting up into measles territory at this rate.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 1,503 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 4,449,507 cases. It also reported three deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 35,550 deaths – 0.80% of the cumulative reported total, 0.81% of resolved cases.
69 confirmed cases are in ICU; of these patients, 45 confirmed cases cases are on ventilators. Meanwhile, 5,839 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,372,790 patients recovered – 98.3% of the cumulative reported total.
1,497 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. Six new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 12,380 doses of vaccine on 1st May: 1,847 first doses, 10,015 second doses, and 518 booster doses. The cumulative total is 70,325,128 doses administered: 27,772,392 first doses, 26,730,577 second doses, and 16,035,520 booster doses. 85.1% of the population have received their first dose, 81.9% their second dose, and 49.1% their booster dose.
New Deal democrat
As usual, almost no States reported yesterday. NY, NJ, and PA all did, and all show that the re-acceleration in cases that started on April 26 is still in place. PR also reported, and its wave also continues.
Nationally, cases rose slightly to 58,100, an increase of almost 25% from 7 days earlier. Hospital admissions rose to 14,931, an increase of 20% from one week prior. Deaths declined by one to yet another 9 month low of 332.
Tomorrow State reporting will resume, and the CDC will publish its nowcast on variants. Aside from the national numbers, how close to universally BA.2.12.1 has taken over NY and NJ will be significant.
Nicole
I absolutely love NYC’s Open Streets. On weekends in summer, a big swath of Amsterdam uptown is closed to vehicles and it’s just so nice to have room to stroll. And more than once we stopped on impulse for an (outdoor) bite or drink, so it is working for restaurants as intended. That said, my own block has several restaurants and the outdoor structures, while cute, have definitely attracted more rats than in pre-pandemic times, and while I don’t own a car so it’s nothing to me other than additional behavior enrichment for my terrier dog on walks, I know a lot of car owners in the area are suffering damage to their cars because the rats go under the hoods to get warm and eat the coating off car wiring while they’re there (it’s made of soy, I found out from a city exterminator). So there is definitely a trade-off, but between the Open Streets and the increase in bike lanes, the city definitely is a little more accommodating to those of us who travel via ways other than cars.
As for NJT’s complaint enforcing a mask mandate would be too hard- well, Amtrak conductors have no trouble enforcing the Quiet Car mandate. I suspect the real trouble is that a lot of public transit employees also watch Fox News. I found Amtrak employees much firmer about Quiet Car than they were about masks. :(
Gvg
We really need an improved vaccine that prevents transmission. I appreciate how fast the scientists worked, but human nature means we have to have the better vaccine.
Brachiator
In Southern California, some cities which established outdoor dining areas, are removing the street modifications and returning to indoor dining. Outdoor dining seemed popular and the weather allowed longer periods of this kind of dining.
And it is sad that there is this insistence that things must return to normal instead of finding more efficient and less intrusive ways of fighting the virus. It’s as though some people have accepted the idea that some people just might have to die so that we can all live like we used to before the pandemic.
New Deal democrat
I hope it is sinking in to people just how big a mess the American judicial system has become. No one trial level judge ought to be able to issue nationwide injunctions compelling or voiding a regulation – and that’s true regardless of which party controls the Presidency. And the Executive ought to be able to get immediate appellate review from a national panel of judges if any injunction is issued.
Congress would have to pass this reform. Since the Senate is broken, it won’t.
NotMax
Bluegrass ass touts idiocy.
Wvng
My wife and I went to seen Janis Ian at The Birchmere in Alexandria, VA on Saturday, one sold out stop her farewell tour. Vaccinations required, masks encouraged when not at table. Big room, packed. Wonderful concert. I guess we’ll find out in a few days how smart that was, but the concert was wonderful. Janis Ian has always been a small woman who, all alone, fills an auditorium with wonderfully crafted and powerful music. Tom Paxton came out and did one song with her. He said she always brings a great band with her … a guitar.
lowtechcyclist
@Wvng: My first thought was, “Janis Ian is still around?” I wasn’t surprised to read next that it was her farewell tour. Glad you enjoyed it!
I’m not yet ready for indoor venues, but with summer coming on, Wolf Trap and similar places are starting their seasons, so I’m looking forward to some live music.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
317 new cases yesterday. This is from the NYSDOH, so it’s all PCR tests.
lowtechcyclist
What’s he gonna find, anyway? If it really was some sort of attack by China, it means that the GOP didn’t just surrender, it extended a welcome mat.
Amir Khalid
Here in Malaysia, most Covid-19 restrictions have been relaxed or even lifted altogether. As of May Day you don’t need to check into any place with the MySejahtera smartphone app any more. All activities are now permitted, including nightclubbing and attending houses of worship. Masks are now required only indoors, and social distancing is merely optional. But local media is reporting that most Malaysians are accustomed to them after two years, and for now will still voluntarily mask up and keep their distance.
NeenerNeener
@lowtechcyclist: If it was an attack, it was an attack by Mother Nature to reduce the human parasites. The Republicans are ready at war with Mother Nature.
Soprano2
@Gvg: I agree. I think Omicron broke a lot of people’s willingness to wear masks. When you hear so many stories about people who “did everything right” – wore masks, distanced, stayed away from indoor events – and got Covid anyway, you start to question why you’re doing all that stuff if you’re just going to get it anyway. And I know all the reasons why, so no one has to come on here to tell them to me yet again. I’m saying from the viewpoint of a regular person, that’s certainly how it seems.
And the lecturing tone from Eric Topol certainly doesn’t help, either. I’m a believer in all this stuff, and it struck even me as unhelpful.
Soprano2
@New Deal democrat: Yep, and since this wouldn’t affect any Republican president since they seem to have captured a lot of the courts, Republicans in Congress have no reason to pass reform either. When they see that the courts are upholding the Trump-era immigration changes even though they aren’t laws but just executive orders and executive department regs, why should they want to change anything?
Soprano2
I think this obsession they have is super hilarious. If they think it was a deliberate “attack” by China, how do they explain the resistance to fighting back against it by the TFG administration? I guess they’re going to try to blame it all on Fauci and Democrats, and say that TFG didn’t have any responsibility to fight it at all. The truth is that the only people for whom the source is really relevant are scientists. I don’t care where it came from, I care about managing and defeating it!
NotMax
@Soprano2
Wughazi.
//
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2: A deadly Chinese bioweapon that was only a cold and no big deal
I am interested in where COVID came from–the problem is that these people have a very specific answer they want it to be, and they’re going to keep investigating until they get it.
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2: I’m deeply concerned that the news focus now on hospitalized and dying people with breakthrough infections is going to convince a whole new slice of the population that vaccination doesn’t do anything. People think in terms of narrative and narrative is all-or-nothing–explaining statistical illusions over and over isn’t going to help much with that.
It bothers me because if there’s one thing that’s really going to help, it’s getting already-vaccinated people to get their boosters, and too many haven’t even in areas where vaccination was initially very high.
Soprano2
@Matt McIrvin: I agree, totally. Vaccination is the key to getting this whole situation under control, which is why I agree that we need a vaccine that helps inhibit transmission. As long as people believe that getting the vaccine does nothing to prevent infection (which isn’t true, but for most people it is an all or nothing “thing”), they will believe vaccination isn’t that important.
Speaking of which, I need to get booster # 2 this week or next.
Ian R
@Nicole: Open dining and further discouraging NYC car ownership. It’s win-win!
Sure Lurkalot
@Soprano2: Yes, people who do everything “right” have still taken ill but it doesn’t need to be that metric vs. doing absolutely nothing. Measuring real transmission and having guidance at various levels can be done and if it has to be done without mandates because we’re a nation of selfish people, well, every bit helps.
How is a scientist saying new variants are more and more contagious “lecturing”? It’s just a fact and some people will use facts to guide their behavior. When the NWS calls for a blizzard or a hurricane, people react. That’s why the change in the CDC maps is fucking ridiculous because it tells people to do nothing.
With all due respect, you live in a red area and own a bar. Your perspective is different because some of your livelihood depends on it. Please don’t take that as criticism, you’re hardly alone in this circumstance.
NotMax
@Nicole
So things have come full circle to emulate Orchard Street.
;)
NotMax
@NotMax</a<
Allow me to amend that.
@Nicole
So things have come full circle to emulate the heyday of Orchard Street.
;)
Soprano2
@Sure Lurkalot: It’s this part of the tweet
that struck me wrong, as scolding. “How dare anyone want things to be more normal?” is how I (and many people) take this kind of language. I understand him being upset, but this is human nature he’s fighting against. Once people believe the things they were doing to protect themselves don’t work anymore, because of the press emphasis on the people who did everything right, were vaxxed and boosted and still got Covid, I think there isn’t a lot scientists can do to fix that. Kamala Harris got Covid, how careful do you think she is?
And yes, I do live in an extremely “red” area, and I do own a bar, so my viewpoint is different from someone who might live in an 80% “blue” area, can easily work from home, and doesn’t care if they never visit a restaurant, go to a concert, or enter any shared spaces ever again. I am not willing to live my life that way, but if you are, that’s fine with me.
YY_Sima Qian
On 5/1 Mainland China reported 846 new domestic confirmed (566 previously asymptomatic), 6,895 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 domestic suspect cases, & 32 new deaths.
Guangdong Province reported 23 new domestic confirmed (7 previously asymptomatic, all at Guangzhou) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic (1 each at Guangzhou & Jiangmen) cases. 11 of the new positive cases at Guangzhou are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine, 5 via screening of residents under movement control, & 1 via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure. The case at Jiangmen is a traced close contact under centralized quarantine. 29 domestic confirmed & 5 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 164 active domestic confirmed & 61 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic (both at Fangchenggang) cases. 22 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Beihai) & 133 active domestic asymptomatic cases (112 at Fangchenggang & 21 at Baise) in the province.
Hunan Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Changsha) case, a person coming from elsewhere. 7 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 28 active domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 5 sites at Shaoyang are currently at Medium Risk.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, at Manzhouli in Hulun Buir. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 49 active domestic confirmed (45 at Hulun Buir, 3 at Baotou, & 1 at Chifeng) cases in the province. 4 sub-districts in Manzhouli are currently at Medium Risk.
Tianjin Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
Shandong Province reported 5 new domestic confirmed & 34 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 8 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 64 active domestic confirmed cases & 647 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As not all of the administrative divisions in the province provide data on recoveries, I cannot track the count of active cases in all of the administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Shanxi Province t domestic confirmed & 24 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 29 active domestic confirmed (26 at Taiyuan & 3 at Shuozhou) & 116 active domestic asymptomatic (114 at Taiyuan & 2 at Shuozhou) cases remaining. All areas of the province are now at Low Risk.
Hebei Province reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 4 domestic confirmed & 154 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 14 active domestic confirmed & 669 active asymptomatic case in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Liaoning Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 95 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 7 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 35 active domestic confirmed & 568 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Heilongjiang Province reported 8 new domestic confirmed & 20 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 45 domestic confirmed & 37 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 245 active domestic confirmed & 184 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jilin Province reported 31 new domestic confirmed (27 previously asymptomatic, 18 mild & 13 moderate) & 16 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 242 domestic confirmed & 559 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. As the province does not consistently break down recoveries by confirmed & asymptomatic cases or by jurisdictions, I can no longer track the count of active case counts in the different jurisdictions.
Beijing Municipality reported 36 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic, 32 mild & 4 moderate) & 5 new domestic asymptomatic cases. As the city does not break down recoveries by imported vs. domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there. 10 sites are currently at High Risk. 26 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 727 new domestic confirmed (529 previously asymptomatic) & 6,606 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 6,746 of the new domestic positive cases were already under quarantine & 58 via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure. There were 32 deaths (avg. 84.1 y.o., youngest at 53 y.o. & oldest at 98 y.o., all w/ a range of underlying conditions, 4 partially or fully vaccinated). 4,242 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 29,468 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 17,122 active domestic confirmed (441 serious & 93 critical) & 121,482 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 13 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
At Shaanxi Province 3 domestic confirmed & 2 asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the province.
At Hubei Province 14 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed (all mild, 3 at Wuhan & 1 at Huanggang) & 79 active domestic asymptomatic (39 at Wuhan, 20 at Ezhou, 3 at Enshi Prefecture, 2 at Yichang, 7 at Huanggang, 6 at Xiangyang, & 1 each at Xiaogan & Xianning) cases in the province.
Jiangsu Province reported 16 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 5 domestic confirmed & 94 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The currently are 39 active domestic confirmed & 553 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in each administrative division, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Anhui Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 40 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 7 active confirmed & 265 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Zhejiang Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 16 new domestic asymptomatic case. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported versus domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
Fujian Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, at Xiamen, a person coming from elsewhere & under centralized quarantine since arrival. 4 domestic confirmed case recovered & 17 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 23 active domestic confirmed & 73 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 2 sites at Ningde remain at Medium Risk.
Ürumqi in Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 37 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed & 141 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
At Guizhou Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Tongren) case remaining.
Jiangxi Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (both mild) & 35 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 25 domestic confirmed & 22 asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 230 active domestic confirmed & 596 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Henan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (at Zhengzhou) & 4 new domestic asymptomatic (2 at Anyang & 1 each at Zhengzhou & Zhoukou) cases. 2 domestic confirmed & 21 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 37 active domestic confirmed & 135 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 2 sites at Xinyang are currently at Medium Risk.
Sichuan Province reported 6 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic, 5 at Chengdu & 1 at Dazhou) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Dazhou) cases. 1 of the cases at Chengdu was previously asymptomatic, & the new positive cases are all construction workers returning from building temporary hospitals in Shanghai & under centralized quarantine since arrival. The cases at Dazhou recently came from areas w/ active outbreaks & under centralized quarantine since arrival. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported vs. domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
At Yinchuan in Ningxia “Autonomous” Region there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the region.
Chongqing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the city.
At Qinghai Province 4 domestic confirmed & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 25 active domestic confirmed & 17 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Yunnan Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case (at Mengla County in Sipsongpanna Prefecture), a traced close contact under centralized quarantine. 9 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed & 135 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 5/1, Mainland China reported 19 new imported confirmed cases (0 previously asymptomatic), 62 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 4,662 confirmed cases recovered (15 imported), 30,622 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (110 imported) & 566 were reclassified as confirmed cases (all domestic), & 32,545 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 20,173 active confirmed cases in the country (160 imported), 576 in serious/critical condition (all domestic), 157,131 active asymptomatic cases (542 imported), 0 suspect cases. 473,932 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 5/1, 3,345.528M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 996K doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 5/2 Hong Kong reported 283 new positive cases, 11 imported & 272 domestic (109 via RT-PCR & 163 from rapid antigen tests), 3 deaths (1 fully vaccinated) + 2 backlogged deaths.
On 5/2, Taiwan reported 17,858 new positive cases, 57 imported & 17,801 domestic (14 moderate & 7 serious). Symptom onset for the domestic cases range from 3/29 – 4/30. There were 3 new deaths (actual dates of death between 4/27 & 4/28, all having a range of underlying conditions, 1 fully vaccinated).
Brachiator
@Soprano2:
People childishly want things to be normal when it’s not that simple. We have seen this before, with past flu epidemics, and even at times with deadlier plagues. Historians writing about the plague in Athens noted how some citizens gave up, exposed themselves and died.
This is not what the responsible press emphasized. You left out the part where people might get Covid, but still are protected from greater risk of hospitalization or death.
The question is how do we best build on this and provide adequate protections against future outbreaks. And maybe we can do things in a way that is less disruptive.
Matt McIrvin
As for local news: after what seemed like a peak in MA, cases and maybe wastewater numbers seem to be increasing again, which is (if you’ve been following my comments) not very surprising to me. Going by the experience of Europe and Puerto Rico, which seem to be a bit ahead of us, I’d guess that the second Omicron wave is going to max out at about 1/3 to 1/2 the height of the original one in case rates, with hospitalizations and deaths proportional, but it might all be more drawn-out.
sdhays
@Soprano2: People in other countries seem to have accepted a modified version of normal that at least makes a concession to reality. Anti-mask/anti-vax/anti-any mitigation effort whatsoever propaganda has been overwhelming in the US, and it’s selling the very seductive line that whatever you do, it doesn’t matter.
Without that propaganda, I think normal people would make somewhat different choices. Propaganda works.
Matt McIrvin
@sdhays: It really depends on the country. I get the impression that in many parts of (especially northern) Europe, masking is less popular than it is here. But in Spain they responded well. No telling how it will go.
Speaking personally, I’ve had to make some concessions for things like restaurant dining simply because my family is completely burned out on pandemic isolation, if I play the COVID police at this point they just think I’m being irrational and controlling, and with four shots in me, some added risk is a price I’m willing to pay for good relations with them. I also think that because they don’t follow the numbers obsessively like I do, my changes in attitude as cases go up and down just seem random and inexplicable. I mask up when I can (and so do they), and we make a lot more use of food delivery and takeout than we used to, but they’re not willing to keep refraining from doing stuff completely.
scav
A) Sometimes I think scolding is the only possible sane response to a situation. B) Not all “human” wishes, demands, preferences, natures, whims, whatever, need to met lovingly coddled, nurtured and tickled in the manner they feel they deserve. Human nature isn’t a get out of reality, let alone responsibility card. Yep, everybody would simply love for this not to have happened (blue areas were not exactly frustrated homeworkers and non restaurant goers yearning for life as anchorites) and yup, everybody wishes that school districts and libraries and retirement packages fell out of the sky and paid for themselves. Doesn’t work that way. Sorry you’re frustrated, but life is shit for everyone.
Suzanne
@Brachiator:
The part of this that is not really looked at is that the risk is not equally shared. People who are at lower risk and don’t have people in their close circle who are higher risk are much more willing to say FUCK IT at this point.
Honestly, I get it. I am still masking in most places, because of Spawn the Youngest. But once that is done… I think we have to accept that the social contract has been essentially severed and that lots of people are not willing to put themselves out even slightly to protect others.
Matt McIrvin
@Brachiator:
That statement is not in the headline or in the first paragraph. It’s further down in the inverted pyramid, which means it might as well have not been written at all.
Ruckus ??
@Nicole:
Train riders can hear the talking/noise, all the illness is in the hospitals and morgues. Noise affects them directly when it happens. They have to have Covid to know that it exists, otherwise it’s just numbers on TV, someone else’s problem.
A side note, when I was in college I tutored statistics, because I understood it and most didn’t get the concept in the least. And all we hear about Covid is statistics, this percent, that number. The number of people who actually have little to no understanding of the concept of statistics, this is all just noise. And it’s obvious from the train noise stories that people mostly hate noise – unless they are making it or going somewhere to hear it.
Matt McIrvin
@Nicole: They also know that people flip out about COVID restrictions to a degree that they don’t about the quiet car, sometimes violently. I think a major reason that airline employees were so jubilant about mask mandates ending, to the point of encouraging inappropriate celebrations, was that they were exhausted with being in the crosshairs as the COVID police and just didn’t want drunks to punch them in the face so much.
Jay
Rotating tag nomination.
StringOnAStick
The “why bother, everyone gets it sooner or later” attitude is spreading. When I talked to the guy we got a roof from, first he talked about a client who was mid-40’s, both he and his wife caught Covid but only the wide died; he told me sad this widower was. When I took that opening to say how this thing isn’t over and we still need to be careful, he told me about a nurse friend of his in San Diego who told him it doesn’t matter if you’re vaccinated or not, if it’s your time to die there’s no difference.
That shocked me, but I remembered that nursing has a high level of authoritarian R’s in the profession. It is also an example of the base rate fallicy; a clear majority of people are vaccinated in most areas, so that’s the bigger pool for hospitalizations to be drawn from even though the unvaccinated are hospitalised at much higher rates but the base pool of them is much smaller to start with.
Raven
@Matt McIrvin: We’re half way to the Gulf and I’m going on a boat tomorrow. We’ll be inside the cabin part of the trip and I doubt if there will be any masking.
Matt McIrvin
@StringOnAStick:
I know here’s a whole long literature about how pervasive this attitude is when it comes to cancer and heart disease, and how it makes prevention more difficult. “When your number’s up, nothing you do matters.”
Of course the same people who dismiss COVID restrictions will use cancer and heart disease as whatabout material.
glc
These roundups continue to be interesting and informative … unfortunately.
And good information is getting harder to find.
Matt McIrvin
@Raven: A friend of mine is in the UK right now and commented “vaccination must work because the pubs are all packed here and nobody is wearing masks for anything”. She didn’t even know that they had a whole second Omicron wave that just burned through them. I mean, undoubtedly vaccination did help immensely to control the impact from that, but a lot of it was that BoJo and his friends just decided nobody should care any more.
Howard Campbell's Soup
@StringOnAStick: that line from the “nurse” sounds to me like an old-school fundamentalist Bible reading I encountered as a kid: A friend’s mother would get upset that TV advertisements claimed seatbelts saved lives, when the Bible says that when it’s your time there’s nothing you can do.
as for the “nurse” — it seems to me that there’s probably a reason these friend of a friend anti-vax stories from a medical insider seem to come more often from “nurses” than “doctors”. Could be that nurses are perceived more front line and “working class” (and empathic) than doctors so they have more trust. Could be that there are just a lot more nurses than doctors. But I think it’s because there’s a huge range of jobs and backgrounds that laypeople call nurses and the “nurse” in the anecdote is probably not an experienced nurse practitioner.
Soprano2
I left it out on purpose, because “normies” who don’t read a Covid thread every morning didn’t notice that part. It was buried in the story. They saw the headlines and first few lines of the story and said “Well, nothing protects me from getting Covid, why are we doing this?”. If the headline said “Covid vaccines extremely effective at protection against serious illness and death”, they might notice, but the headlines say things like “More and more vaccinated people are getting Covid, here’s why”. I can’t do anything about that
You may not like this fact, but it’s a fact, that’s why we’re where we’re at in this country.
Soprano2
@sdhays: I agree, the propaganda works. That’s why we have the situation we have now. Even the mainstream press does it, with there “More and more vaccinated people are getting covid” headlines.
Soprano2
Y’all would not be comfortable with my life now. I sang in a concert yesterday; we had Grand Chorus with orchestra and a live audience for the first time since 2019. We performed “Carmina Burana”, which is very appropriate for this time and space, and I enjoyed it immensely . I go to yoga and Jazzercise, and eat in restaurants. I’m vaxxed and not high risk, so I’m willing to take those chances. I look at the wastewater monitoring for my community a few times a week; so far, the level in the community is lower than at any point since July 2020. I’m getting ready to get my second booster; I’m not stupid, just not as risk averse as some people here. Most people are not as risk averse as people who post here.
Soprano2
@Matt McIrvin: Trevor Noah did a segment on this, showing many many video clips of employees on planes literally fighting with people about wearing masks. I can’t blame them for being happy they don’t have to do that anymore. The segment of the public that flies on planes regularly isn’t representative of the population as a whole; I’m sure it’s a lot whiter and more conservative than the average person.
Soprano2
@Matt McIrvin: I’ve heard this argument here, too. Lots of conservative Christians of various stripes in this area.
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2: My wife still goes to her wind band practice on Thursdays, and they’ve had a few concerts. They can’t wear masks, in any practical and effective sense. They had a vaccine mandate for in-person rehearsal but of course that only goes so far in preventing transmission. And some of the band members are elderly.
One point she makes is that if we were being as hardcore serious as I sometimes want to be, she’d simply have to quit band. For a while, she was getting regularly PCR tested at the office for coming in twice a week, but they stopped that program.
As time goes on one has to push against the flow of society more and more just to maintain one’s personal mitigation measures. Either give in, or become far more of a hermit because nobody else will do anything. There was that Twitter thread comparing it to Ionesco’s play “Rhinoceros” in which everyone gradually submits to peer pressure to turn into a rhinoceros–I’m pretty sure Ionesco’s play was a metaphor for the rise of fascism, so there’s a lot of baggage there.
The poster believed that the situation will inevitably lead to a majority of the US somehow debilitated by long COVID contracted after dozens of repeated “mild” infections over several years. I’m hoping medical science helps with that possibility but I certainly couldn’t say.
Ruckus ??
@Matt McIrvin:
When someone plays the cancer card on me, they get an entire ear full. I know a number of people who’ve had cancer. Mom, oldest sister, me, my best buddy, and that’s just the short list. There’s the 8 guys that I sat with waiting for our cancer treatment appt at the VA. There are others but this is my close knowledge list. Only one of those people died, my oldest sister.
But when I have this “discussion” with some asshole I always remember that a lot of the time it’s the distance someone has from any victim that reflects their processing of the concept, and their relative level of intelligence and that they may just not have been told about someone’s cancer because many do not talk about it.
Ruckus ??
@Soprano2:
I am less risk adverse than some about things I know about, likely because I worked in a field where minor wounds are pretty normal and in one field where even death (and ambulance rides) is/are not completely abnormal. But. And it’s a large, rotund but, I actually assess/learn about the risk of things prior to jumping in head or feet first. Many people never even attempt to learn about risk. Their assumption seems to be either it gets everyone or it’ll never get me, and often both.