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You are here: Home / Open Threads / Ohio Primaries Open Thread

Ohio Primaries Open Thread

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Less good (if expected) news:


Elsewhere in the Buckeye State:

If anyone wants to weigh in on the Indiana primaries… I’m not seeing much news about them yet…

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70Comments

  2. 2.

    CaseyL

    I’m surprised by Vance’s win, even if no one else it.  He was polling at 6% not too long ago, and people were joking about how he groveled at TFG’s feet and had nothing to show for it.  But that was before the endorsement – so TFG still pulls a lot of weight in Ohio.

  3. 3.

    Barbara

    @CaseyL: ​ I don’t actually remember what the pre-election polls showed, but I don’t think anyone had a clear lead, and if a lot of people were undecided, that might have been what made up their minds. Did Mandel go down or did undecideds just move to Vance?

  4. 4.

    sdhays

    @CaseyL: I don’t know, he seems good for about 25% (19% bump) of the Ohio GQP. Not a particularly impressive showing to me. If the field had been less fractured, would it have been enough?

    Tramp got lucky, but he may regret it in November. Vance seems absurdly weak to me, although it’s Ohio, so…

  5. 5.

    Rusty

    Lovely daughter number three starts college this fall in Ohio.  I don’t know the voting rules for students, but hopefully she will get to vote against Vance.

  6. 6.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    Well, my father brought up the results a few minutes ago and based on the raw totals of votes of Ds vs Rs, he thinks the Dems are “screwed”

    When I sarcastically replied with, “Thanks for the doom and gloom analysis”, he said, “That’s reality.”

    ?

    As much as I hate DeWine, I’m glad he won compared to Blystone. Devil you know, and all that

  7. 7.

    Craig

    Wondering how much money Peter Thiel threw at Trump to line up that nomination for his cat’s paw.

  9. 9.

    mrmoshpotato

    Sorry that you Ohioans have to put up with 6! months of stupid ads on TV.

  15. 15.

    Major Major Major Major

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Maybe, but it seems like the Republicans had more hotly contested races. That often affects primary turnout.

    Yeah, this exactly.

    In personal news, I guess I’m buying a house! Tomorrow we expect to put down a good-faith deposit on a property under construction in the part of Denver formerly known as Stapleton.

  19. 19.

    Major Major Major Major

    @opiejeanne: not yet, but our lease is up in January and we’ve had our big city fun by this point in our lives. The property should be ready right then so it’s great timing.

    ETA for our expected new rent we can have a mortgage on 2k square feet literally next to a national park.

  21. 21.

    artem1s

    @Barbara:

    Ohio is also an open primary state. I was tempted to vote GOP just to screw with their vote totals. But I didn’t want to screw around with risking Nina Turner benefiting from lots of Dems crossing over.  Given that most of the Dem races were uncontested, I imagine there were a lot of Dems who were more than tempted. I also couldn’t decide who would be a better bet to turn off Ohio GOP voters more. Unfortunately I rightly predicted from the beginning they would eventually go with the absolute worst human being possible. That Vance is a vile human will be considered a feature not a bug by most of rural MAGAt Ohioans. And evidently if you cough up enough dough, anyone can get TFGs endorsement. Gillian and Mandel made the mistake of thinking that putting their money into ads was the way to win the vile vote. I’m interested to see whether Ryan can get the rust belt and labor to turn out for him when he’s running against a known carpetbagger who has so much out of state money backing him.

  25. 25.

    RaflW

    @Major Major Major Major: Congrats!

    I’ve eaten pizza at Anthony’s Pizza & Pasta on 29th Ave in that sort of ellipse shopping area near Quebec a few times (pre-pandemic), when passing thru from or to DIA. Not earth-shattering, but a good pie (eta: Um, if you’re from NYC, forget what I said. It is not a NY slice! It tries, and I like it, but ohmyghawd don’t have expectations LOL).

    I think the Stapleton re-development is turning out well. Hope you’ll like it there.

  26. 26.

    Major Major Major Major

    @RaflW: I remember an Anthony’s from high school, near DU, that was pretty good. Looks to be the same company! My family usually orders from I think it’s Amici’s?

    My folks have lived in Stapleton pretty much since it opened, or at least close to it. We’d like to be close to them and somewhere with uh, good schools, we’re thinking about kids…

  28. 28.

    Major Major Major Major

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): it has, but I expect this home to be an okay investment. I’ve heard the rate of increase is slowing but no expectations of a slump. If prices do crash before the place is ready we can always just forfeit our deposit. It’s a pretty nice set-up given all the uncertainty flying around, and the lender we’re likely to use offers a one-time rate reduction if they go down within nine months of execution, so there’s surprisingly little pressure.

    @Sure Lurkalot: yep, it’s in the square part in the southwest of the Arsenal that looks like somebody took a bite out.

  30. 30.

    jonas

    @Barbara: I think that’s right. Ryan pretty much had a lock on the nomination, so not as much urgency on the Dem side. Vance won in a crowded field, but it also wasn’t a blowout. He has a lot more ground to make up to consolidate support on his side than Ryan does on his.

  32. 32.

    Anyway

    A little surprised that TFG’s endorsement garnered Vance the primary win, I thought Mandel would be able to pull it out. Oz camp must be feeling good in PA. I think he will be a weaker candidate in the general than McCormick — fingers crossed.

  33. 33.

    ian

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I would argue competitive versus non-competitive primary is in play here.  The OH-Sen on the rep side was highly advertised and contested, the Dem races above district level were not.  Turnout for primaries in this situation is less predictive then if they were both competitive or both non-competitive, that would give a better baseline for comparison

    edit- I see Barbara beat me to this point

  34. 34.

    Ithink

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): It’s SO sad, stressful and disturbing knowing these bloodthirsty heathens are (STILL!) likely to overtake one or both Congressional chambers less than six months from now but God love us if they fuck it up!?

  35. 35.

    RaflW

    If folks aren’t totally worn out on Roe, this brand new Alex Pareene piece is a good — if depressing — read. It gets at something I think a subset of us Juicers understand, even if some of us (me, for one) are both institutionalists and aware that we’re failing and falling.

    The Institutionalist’s Dilemma: On trusting the process after it’s openly failed

  36. 36.

    ColoradoGuy

    Welcome to Colorado, 4M! Think you’ll like it here, and there’s plenty of open space, along with spectacular vistas. Also wildly variable weather.

    Proud to say we’re a Freedom State.

  37. 37.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Major Major Major Major: Wait, I thought you were in NYC?

    Denver is really nice. We almost moved there a few years ago, decided to stay in California but move to a slightly more affordable part of it

    ETA I see someone else got there before me.

  39. 39.

    Major Major Major Major

    @TaMara: we were juuuust starting to peek at the market, since we’re in nyc until February, when this under-construction unit was posted. Great price, family’s neighborhood, relatively low commitment, fits the timeline perfectly. Meanwhile by my husband’s family you can get a 1,300 square foot ranch house that’s literally rotting for $2.4 million… so easy choice

    I know I don’t mention it much but I AM from Denver, folks, I know it’s nice!

  40. 40.

    Kent

    NYT is declaring Majewski the winner in OH-9th.  That’s good then according to the above tweet?

  44. 44.

    Gretchen

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Rs had a high profile competitive primary.  Tim Ryan was the only real D candidate, so Rs had much more reason to turn out to vote than Ds.  That’s not a predictor of the fall.

  45. 45.

    Gretchen

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Rs had a high profile competitive primary.  Tim Ryan was the only real D candidate, so Rs had much more reason to turn out to vote than Ds.  That’s not a predictor of the fall.

  46. 46.

    Geminid

    @Kent: A Cleveland.com story said that Shontel Brown was leading Turner 63.5% to 36.5% when AP called the race. In last year’s special election primary, with multiple candidates, the final numbers had Brown at about 50%, Turner about 42%.

    This is the only primary I’ve seen where the JCPOA intended to limit Iran’s nuclear program came up, albeit briefly. Shontel Brown, along with Val Demings, was one of 20 Democrats who last month criticized the proposed new JCPOA, saying that it should do more to curb Iran. The Intercept’s Ryan Grim and others jumped on this and accused Brown of shocking disloyalty to President Biden. The President must not have minded as much as did Grim because he endorsed Brown afterwards.

  47. 47.

    Joe Falco

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Congrats! In my own house-related news, I may finally be able to sell my home in NW Georgia that I’ve been trying to get rid of for a long time. The buyer told my realtor they were good with moving forward on the closing after going by there yesterday with their inspector. I won’t be making any money out of this deal, but it’s been such an incredibly stressful time of my life dealing with that house that being out from underneath it will be it’s own reward.

  48. 48.

    sab

    Relieved, but not surprised that Shontel Brown won. The change in the district map helped her. Last time she did well in Cuyahoga County, and it was the Summit County voters that supported Turner. This time around the Summit County voters are all in Ohio 13 not Ohio 11.  Summit County voters knew of Nina Turner because she is nationally known. Shontel Brown was an unknown to us.

  52. 52.

    Misamericanthrope

    I realize that it borders on fat-shaming, but I so want to refer to Vance as the “Hillbilly Doughboy”.

  56. 56.

    Percysowner

    @Kent: I wish that this would make Turner’s more…committed supporters accept that she isn’t that strong a candidate, but I suspect it won’t. She has the same people who are convinced “Bernie was screwed” supporting her and they just can’t accept that anyone else could possibly win fairly.

    It’s not my district, but I am glad Brown won.

  57. 57.

    Geminid

    @sab: I saw that Ohio Governor Mike Dewine beat challengers Renacci and Blystone but still polled a little under 50%. DeWine has been a successful Governor, at least by former Republican standards.

    This lack of enthusiasm, plus the contentiousness of their Senate primary, may cut into Republican votes in November. The effect probably will be small but every little bit helps candidates like Whaley and Ryan. Ohio citizens have already heard a bunch of anti-DeWine and anti-Vance ads, and Whaley and Ryan did not have to pay a thing.

  58. 58.

    Buckeye

    @Percysowner: most of Turner’s committed supporters don’t even live in Ohio and still think they know better than the actual residents. They will not do any self reflection on their bad choices.

  59. 59.

    Geminid

    @Buckeye: The Cleveland.com article I referenced at #46 gave a breakdown of direct campaign donations by state. California was Turners biggest source state, totaling three times those from second place Ohio. Brown in turn got twice as much money from Ohio as California.

  60. 60.

    different-church-lady

    Re, Vance’s win.

    New rule: never listen to a GD thing they say at LGM.

  61. 61.

    Frank Wilhoit

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): What this neglects is that fact that many Ohio Dems cannot vote in their primary, because they have to register as “unaffiliated”, because of the level of intimidation.  I’d bet that just about all of the “unaffiliated” are D.  As long ago as the mid-1990s, a county sheriff was caught trying to get hold of voting registration data in order to use it to prioritize 911 responses.  Put it together.

  62. 62.

    James E Powell

    @CaseyL:

    FOX and Tucker had more to do with Vance’s win than TFG.

    I still think Ryan has a decent chance, but it’s going to be a tough one. It’ll be a national campaign. In diners all over Ohio, business will be booming.

  65. 65.

    Bupalos

    @Barbara: my wife and I took a republican ballot. First time I’ve done that but there was nothing to vote for on our side, and a spectrum of Trumpism to vote against on theirs.

  67. 67.

    Miss Bianca

    @Major Major Major Major: Belated congratulations! Does this mean you’re moving to Denver imminently, or is this a retirement house? ; )

    ETA: D’oh, should have read further! We’ll have to have a BJ Denver meet-up once you’re settled in!

  68. 68.

    Percysowner

    @Frank Wilhoit: As an Ohio voter, I haven’t had to register as any party. They just ask which party’s ballot I want to vote on and they hand it to me. If you are an independent you had almost no reason to vote. There were not state issues and, in my area, no local ones either. Frankly even voting Democrat was almost unnecessary. There were only like 3 races with more than one candidate. I mean, I showed up, because I always do.

  69. 69.

    Geminid

    @Percysowner: Independents usually vote for one or the other party’s candidates in November. Some are not motivated to vote in primaries but others take an interest. So there will be politically engaged Independents of various types who will vote in a primary like Ohio’s. Some are ultraconservative, but some are more moderate and their votes likely ended up in the Dolan column.

    This gets argued about by Virginia Republicans. The state has no party registration so all primaries are open. Ultraconservatives fovor caucuses and conventions for nominating candiates. They say that they want to prevent Democrats from horning in and helping choose nominees. They really want fellow fanatics to pack caucuses that normies are too busy to attend.

    Less radical Republicans say this is crazy. If Republicans can’t win statewide elections without pulling in a majority of the state’s independents- and they can’t- why not involve independents in the nomination process?

    Personally, I think the prospect of Democrats invading Republican primaries is a red herring. That kind of strategic voting is more talked about than is actually done.

  70. 70.

    JR in WV

    Hoping that Jerk Doughboy Vance will mean an easy run and victory for Ryan, who seems to be a way more electable person. Vance betrays his ignorance every time he opens his mouth.

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