We’ll start with the latest from the Azovstal complex in Mariupol and then come back to Mariupol after the jump. The latest reporting, which is now between four and seven hours old, is that the Azov Regiment and the 36th Separate Marine Brigade are still holding and successfully defending the Azovstal complex in Mariupol.
Early this morning eastern time it was reported that after heavily bombarding the Azovstal complex Russian forces had entered the underground tunnels to engage its defenders. As a result of the Russian assault, communications with the Azov Regiment and/or the 36th Separate Marine Brigade had been cut off. About four or five hours ago news finally began to be reported out of the Azovstal complex and the defenders are holding and communications restored.
It is true that Russian forces have entered the Azovstal premises.
The Mariupol garrison is repelling attacks, comms have been restored.— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) May 4, 2022
Here’s video of the Azov commander on site describing what is going on with English subtitles added:
Added English subtitles: Urgent appeal from the commander of the Azov Regiment, Lieutenant Colonel Denys Prokopenko, regarding the situation at the Azovstal plant pic.twitter.com/XMHPPusimZ
— ???????? ???, ??? ???? (@ZeroZhvk) May 4, 2022
The last reporting I saw pertaining to the Russian forces trying to engage at the Azovstal complex is from several days ago. It indicated that these Russian forces are Kadyrov’s Chechens. They’re basically feral and are only really good for terrorizing the locals. Given the amount of combat time that the members of the Azov Regiment and the 36th Separate Marine Brigade have had over the past eight years combined with the fact that the latter are basically defending home turf and no the layout of the complex and its underground tunnel network, I am not at all surprised that they are holding and repulsing the Russian attack.
I want to just note the historic parallel here, as well as its twisted irony. During Putin’s Chechen campaign a group of the Chechen rebel forces negotiated a humanitarian ceasefire, including paying a bribe to the Russian official in charge in the area, to evacuate the rebels and the Chechens they were protecting. The Russians let the first group or two through maintaining the ceasefire and allowing safe passage. And then, once the Chechen rebels felt as if they could trust the agreement they’d negotiated and paid for, and began to move en masse through the humanitarian corridor they found it mined, they found Russian forces entrenched on both sides of the corridor firing at them, and they found Russian attack helicopters overhead firing on them. It’s not a perfect analogue to what is happening with the Russians, via the UN and ICRC, agreeing to humanitarian ceasefires to allow for the evacuation of the Azovstal complex, but it does rhyme.
Here’s today’s address by President Zelenskyy to the Ukrainian people. Video with subtitles below. Transcript with my emphasis after the jump.
Ukrainians!
Today I will start with a story about one person. About Oleksandr Makhov – a well-known journalist. I’m sure you’ve seen his reports on Ukraine and Dom TV channels. You may have seen his comments, his posts. He has always been like that – with his own position. Patriotic and sincere. And always without vanity. And he was always among the bravest, among the first. He always worked in the hottest spots. Tried to bring true material. Powerful material.
In 2017, he was the first Ukrainian journalist to visit our station in Antarctica. When COVID came, he was not afraid. He has lived in Sanzhary for two weeks, where Ukrainians were brought to from China. From the first day of the full-scale war, he was on the frontline. Volunteer. ATO veteran. Warrior of the 95th assault brigade.
Born in the Luhansk region. He had a special feeling of what this war means.
Today he died in the Kharkiv region, in the battles near Izium. He was 36 years old. My sincere condolences to relatives and friends. Let his son Vladyslav know: Russia will bear responsibility for this death. We will definitely gain victory for Ukraine. I’m sure it was Oleksandr’s dream. And we will make it come true.
Eternal memory to him and to all our heroes who gave lives for Ukraine!
The second stage of our evacuation operation from Mariupol was completed today. 344 people were rescued – from the city and its suburbs. That’s how many people departed to Zaporizhzhia today. Our team is getting ready to meet them. Meet in the same way as more than 150 people whom we managed to take out of Azovstal. They all receive the necessary help. All of them will receive the most caring treatment from our state.
I am grateful to all those who make the evacuation operation successful: Iryna Vereshchuk, Andriy Yermak, David Arakhamia, UN representatives, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and everyone who reached an agreement and provided silence and corridors for the people.
We are negotiating and hope to continue rescuing people from Azovstal, from Mariupol. There are still civilians. Women, children.
To save them, we need to continue the silence. The Ukrainian side is ready to provide it. It takes time to just lift people out of those basements, out of those underground shelters. In the current conditions, we cannot use special equipment to clear the debris. Everything is done manually. But we believe that everything will work out.
I spoke today with UN Secretary-General António Guterres. About what has already happened. What we still have to do to save Mariupol residents and defenders of the city. There was not a day when I didn’t do it, when we didn’t do it. And I am grateful to everyone who helps.
I spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Bennett. I congratulated him on the Independence Day of the State of Israel. We talked about the situation in the east of our country and especially in Mariupol. We also discussed the scandalous and completely unacceptable statements of the Russian Foreign Minister, which outraged the whole world.
I spoke with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte. We agreed on the next diplomatic steps needed for peace. We discussed how to bring to justice all war criminals. Every Russian soldier and every commander who killed, tortured and tormented our people.
Today, the Russian invaders launched another missile strike at our cities. At Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia. At the cities of Donbas and other regions of our country. All these crimes will get proper answers. Both legal and quite practical – on the battlefield.
I addressed the people of Denmark today on the occasion of Liberation Day. The Nazis were expelled from this country 77 years ago. Every year in May, all Europeans, all decent people on earth recall this feat – victory over the worst evil in human history. Victory in the war against Nazism.
But to recall means not just to remember. This means remembering and really trying to never allow what the Nazis did to Europe again. It is the Ukrainians, together with our friends and partners – the anti-war coalition, as the anti-Hitler once was – that are repelling those who have forgotten exactly why people rejoiced in 1945. Because if everyone in Russia really remembered, this war simply would not have started now.
Traditionally, before delivering the evening address, I signed a decree awarding our defenders. 35 servicemen of the 19th missile brigade of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were awarded state awards.
I am grateful to all our heroes!
To all who stood up for our state.
Glory to Ukraine!
The good news is the Ukrainians managed to evacuate another 344 Mariupolians before the Russians resumed their bombardment and started their ground assault.
Here is today’s operational update from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense (emphasis mine):
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on May 4, 2022
The seventieth day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
russian enemy continues to conduct offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone.
The command of the russian troops is trying to increase the pace of the offensive in east of Ukraine in order to reach the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk oblast, as well as to develop an offensive in the Zaporizhzhia and Kryvyi Rih areas.
In order to achieve certain goals, russian enemy is trying to inflict losses on units of the Defense Forces, regroup and strengthen its troops, increase the system of fire damage and logistics.
russian enemy has intensified the task of missile and bomb strikes in order to destroy Ukraine’s transport infrastructure.
In the Slobozhansky direction there is russian enemy group consisting of separate units of the 6th Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District, the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District, the coastal troops of the Baltic and Northern Fleets. Air strikes and shelling continue in the city of Kharkiv. russian occupiers in the Valuysky district of the Belgorod region deployed an auxiliary command post of the 36th Combined Arms Army y of the Eastern Military District.
As part of the strengthening of the grouping of troops in this direction, russian enemy is moving personnel from the territory of the Belgorod region.
In the Izyum direction, russian enemy is trying to seize the initiative and conduct offensive operations in the Izyum-Barvinkove direction. To this end, russian enemy is carrying out artillery shelling of the positions of Ukrainian troops in the areas of the settlements of Hrushuvakha, Nova Dmytrivka and Kurulka.
In addition, russian enemy concentrated up to 40 attack and transport helicopters Mi-24 and Mi-8 on the territory of the Belgorod region in the immediate vicinity of the state border of Ukraine.
In the Donetsk direction, the main efforts of russian enemy are focused on conducting an offensive on the settlements of Lyman, Orikhove, Popasna, Velyka Novosilka, Huliaipole, Komyshuvakha and Orikhiv.
During the day, in the Lyman direction, russian enemy made unsuccessful attempts to gain a foothold in the village of Oleksandrivka.
In the Severodonetsk direction, russian occupiers launched an offensive in the direction of the settlement of Voevodivka, but were unsuccessful.
In the Popasna direction, russian enemy tried to expand control over the settlement of Orikhove, but without success.
In order to restrain the actions of units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, russain enemy fires at the positions of Ukrainian troops almost along the entire line of contact. russian enemy inflicts air strikes in the areas of Avdiivka, Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Kramatorsk and Huliaipole.
Blockades and attempts to destroy our units in the Azovstal area in Mariupol continue. In some areas, with the support of aircraft, russian enemy resumed the offensive in order to take control of the plant. It is not successful.
In the Novopavlovsk direction, russian occupiers attempted to storm the settlement of Novosilka. russian enemy suffered losses and retreated.
In order to strengthen the grouping of troops, russian enemy transfers equipment and personnel by rail.
In the South Buh and Tavriya directions, russian occupiers, forces of separate units of the 8th and 49th Combined Arms Armies, the 22nd Army Corps, the Black Sea Fleet Coast Guard, and the Airborne Forces are fighting to hold temporarily occupied territories and create conditions for active actions in the directions Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Kryvyi Rih.
In the Volyn, Polissya and Siversky directions, certain units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus continue to carry out tasks to strengthen the section of the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in the Brest and Gomel regions. There is an increase in the air defense system in the Gomel region, training of electronic warfare units. In the future, demonstration and provocative actions in areas close to the state border of Ukraine are not excluded.
In order to maintain tensions at the border and prevent the transfer of reserves of Ukrainian troops to threatening areas, russian enemy keeps units of the 90th Tank Division of the Central Military District near the Ukrainian-russian border near the village of Kozino, Kursk region. Intensification of shelling from the specified area across the territory of the Sumy region is not excluded.
In the Black and Azov Seas, russian Black Sea Fleet continues to carry out tasks to isolate the area of hostilities, reconnaissance and fire support in the coastal direction. The possibility of involving the specified ship composition in the task of missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine is not excluded.
Three carriers of naval cruise missiles “3M-54 Kalibr” (SS-N-27 «Sizzler») are in the Black Sea in readiness for the use of missile weapons.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Let’s win together!
Glory to Ukraine!
I just want to take a moment and address a question from last night’s comments. I don’t remember who asked it. Specifically why there isn’t much specificity in the Ukrainian MOD’s operational assessments about what Ukraine is doing. The simple answer for this is they are not including anything but the most basic information for operational security reasons. They don’t want the Russians getting information about what Ukraine has and is doing from Ukraine’s own open source reporting. At the beginning of the defense against Putin’s re-invasion the Ukrainian civilian and military authorities publicly asked reporters – both Ukrainian and non-Ukrainian – not to provide details of Ukraine’s military operations as that would be beneficial to Russia.
Here’s today’s British MOD assessment:
You can see that there is very little contested area left between Izium and Luhansk. All that’s left is that little but to the south and east of Izium.
There was a DOD background briefing today (emphasis mine):
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: OK, back at it here as Senior Defense Official. On the operational side we still assess that Russian progress on the ground remains slow and uneven in the northern joint force operation area with Russian forces appearing to really sort of orient themselves around Lyman, L-Y-M-A-N, Lyman, which is as I think you all know just a wee bit southeast of Izyum, but that seems to be where they’re starting to orient themselves.
As they continue to try to move south and southeast, they are continuing to meet with greater concentrations of Ukrainian forces and a stiffer resistance, so they still remained stalled in general. Again, I would say progress is very slow and uneven. They are stalled in terms of their overall momentum in the north.
In the south we haven’t seen much progress by the Russians coming north out of Mariupol at all. They seem to have paused either to — either to create better defensive positions or to refit and re-posture themselves, but they’re not making — they’re not making really any progress in the south. There are — they’re south of a town called — just south of a town called Velyka Novosilka. It’s V-E-L-Y-K-A, and second word N-O-V-O-S-I-L-K-A, and that they’re south of that and no notable changes from their positions in the last 24. No notable changes either in Kherson or Mariupol.
Most of the strikes continue to be focused on the JFO and on Mariupol. We have seen some missile strikes out into the west near Lviv. Looks like they’re trying to hit critical infrastructure, electricity and that kind of thing, and trying to get at the ability for the Ukrainians to use railroads in particular, but that they’re — I would just say that while we’re still assessing sort of the damage, it’s not clear that they’ve been very accurate in trying to hit that critical infrastructure, and there’s been no perishable impact that we’ve seen to impeding or in any other way obstructing with the Ukrainians’ ability to replenish and restore themselves.
No significant changes in the maritime posture to speak to. Really there’s nothing there. On the security assistance stuff, I won’t get into training because we just had a lot of that, but I could tell you that more than 90 percent of the 90 howitzers that were pledged to Ukraine in the last two presidential drawdown authorities are actually in Ukrainian hands. Again, where they go and how they’re being used, that’s up to the Ukrainians. So I — we don’t have a bird’s eye view of every single tube and can tell you where it is in the fight.
And as for the 155 ammunition that goes with them, nearly 90,000 155 projectiles have already been transferred to Ukraine and are in Ukraine, and to remind you the total of those two packages were about 144,000, so certainly a majority of the projectiles are also in Ukraine.
And I think I’ll stop there and we’ll go to — we’ll go to questions. Go ahead, Lita.
Q: OK, thanks. Sorry. I think I’m unmuted. Can you say whether or not the Russian efforts to disrupt U.S. and western shipments into Ukraine have been either impacted or if you’ve had to change anything at all because that appears to be — also be one of their goals in what they’ve been doing over the last couple of days, particularly in striking out around Lviv and other places? Has any of that worked at all?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: No, there’s been no impact to our ability to continue flows into Ukraine. We’ve seen no indications that any of this western aid has been impeded or even struck. We just don’t have any evidence of that happening.
Q: Just a follow up. You said they seem to have paused coming out of Mariupol. Do you have any new guestimates on how many of the BTGs are still around there or how many have left?
ENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yes, I think we would — we would — we would estimate that roughly two battalion tactical groups worth of Russians are still dedicated to Mariupol, so it’s a couple of thousands, but is that two precede BTGs, we don’t really have a clean picture of that because some — we do think there’s a mixture of some other non-Russian military forces that are there. For instance, some Chechen fighters. So roughly a couple of thousands, which is equivalent to two BTGs, but I would be careful reporting this as exactly two BTGs are in Mariupol, but the great majority of the forces that were on the ground in and around Mariupol have left and are now, a we’ve talked about, have tried to move north and they’ve just — they’ve just been kind of stalled there south of that town, that Velyka Novosilka.
OK, Bowman.
Q: Yes, can you give us a status report on Kharkiv, what’s going on with the fighting around there? And also you said 90 percent of the 90 howitzers are in Ukrainian hands. Does that mean just in country or actually in the fight if you could clarify that?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I meant in the country.
Q: OK, and ballpark how many are actually in the fight? Do we have any sense?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I think I’m going to — I have that number, but I think I’m just going to demur on that, Tom. There’s…
Q: How about — how about a ballpark number?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: … some details we want to — no, I’m just not going to go there, Tom.
Q: All right. All right.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: They are — we know that they are using some of those howitzers in the fight. But I am not going to get into force disposition on an unclassified line and give away, you know, Ukrainian operational capability. I just — I’m just not going to do that. But, do we have an idea? Yes, we do.
Kharkiv, the Ukrainians still hold Kharkiv. They — they — they never actually gave Kharkiv up. And as I said the other day, we have seen indications that they were able to push the Russian forces about 20 to 30 miles to the — to the east of Kharkiv. But, they still hold it.
And the Russians have not made any progress there.
And we — we still think, though, that the Russians want Kharkiv. I mean, they haven’t exactly left it alone either. And again, we’ve talked about this a lot, but if you just look at a map, you can see it’s a big industrial city and it’s right at the — right at the northwestern sort of lip of what we consider the Donbas area.
So, even though it’s not technically in that JFO from industrial capacity side and just from a geographic location, I mean, it appears as if the Russians still have designs on Kharkiv. But there’s — they’ve made — they’ve made no progress.
Much, much more of the Q&A at the link. I do want to highlight this part of the background briefing Q&A:
Q: OK, thanks. Sorry. I think I’m unmuted. Can you say whether or not the Russian efforts to disrupt U.S. and western shipments into Ukraine have been either impacted or if you’ve had to change anything at all because that appears to be — also be one of their goals in what they’ve been doing over the last couple of days, particularly in striking out around Lviv and other places? Has any of that worked at all?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: No, there’s been no impact to our ability to continue flows into Ukraine. We’ve seen no indications that any of this western aid has been impeded or even struck. We just don’t have any evidence of that happening.
Last night in comments Debbie asked:
whether there was any truth in tweets I’d seen that Russia was bombing stockpiled weapons we and NATO had sent to Ukraine, and if so, is it enough to hurt Ukraine’s chances of success? I still can’t find those tweets, sorry.
I’m also wondering whether Russia ever responded to being kicked out of future soccer competitions? I really expected something by now other than silence.
While the Russians keep threatening to attack NATO and US supplies going into Ukraine, they don’t appear to have actually successfully done so. Despite their bellicose rhetoric, the Russians have not targeted anything NATO and non-NATO allies are sending into Ukraine before it gets to Ukraine. And from what the Senior Defense Official has indicated in his answer, they haven’t successfully targeted any of the equipment, material, and supplies that have made it into Ukraine either.
As for the soccer competitions, I think I recall a thread by Slava Malamud explaining that the Russians had now created their own Russian and Belarusian championship, but I don’t follow soccer, so that’s all I’ve got.
Mariupol:
Video from a DNR account showing Russian/DNR strikes on the Azovstal plant in Mariupol. Possibly by TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS. Not sure of the date. https://t.co/ZtGmAMDnx0 pic.twitter.com/c5Zy94WpBA
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 4, 2022
My 2 dogs died, my grandma Galia died too and so did my favorite city of Mariupol. Diary of 8 yo from basements of #Mariupol. No child ever should have such memories. Ever. pic.twitter.com/8S4bN9MhIv
— Lesia Vasylenko (@lesiavasylenko) May 4, 2022
From the AP:
AP evidence points to 600 dead in Mariupol theater airstrike
By LORI HINNANT, MSTYSLAV CHERNOV and VASILISA STEPANENKOLVIV, Ukraine (AP) — She stood in just her bathrobe in the freezing basement of the Mariupol theater, coated in white plaster dust shaken loose by the explosion. Her husband tugged at her to leave and begged her to cover her eyes.
But she couldn’t help it — Oksana Syomina looked. And to this day, she wishes she hadn’t. Bodies were strewn everywhere, including those of children. By the main exit, a little girl lay still on the floor.
Syomina had to step on the dead to escape the building that had served as the Ukrainian city’s main bomb shelter for more than a week. The wounded screamed, as did those trying to find loved ones. Syomina, her husband and about 30 others ran blindly toward the sea and up the shore for almost five miles (eight kilometers) without stopping, the theater in ruins behind them.
“All the people are still under the rubble, because the rubble is still there — no one dug them up,” Syomina said, weeping at the memory. “This is one big mass grave.”
The AP investigation recreated what happened inside the theater on that day from the accounts of 23 survivors, rescuers, and people intimately familiar with its new life as a bomb shelter. The AP also drew on two sets of floor plans of the theater, photos and video taken inside before, during and after that day and feedback from experts who reviewed the methodology.
With communications severed, people coming and going constantly, and memories blurred by trauma, an exact toll is impossible to determine. The government estimated early on that about 300 people died and has since opened a war crimes investigation, according to a document obtained by the AP.
AP journalists arrived at a much higher number through the reconstruction of a 3D model of the building’s floorplan reviewed repeatedly by direct witnesses, most from within the theater, who described in detail where people were sheltering.
All the witnesses said at least 100 people were at a field kitchen just outside, and none survived. They also said the rooms and hallways inside the building were packed, with about one person for every 3 square meters of free space.
Many survivors estimated around 1,000 people were inside at the time of the airstrike, but the most anyone saw escape, including rescuers, was around 200. The survivors primarily left through the main exit or one side entrance; the other side and the back were crushed.
The AP investigation also refutes Russian claims that the theater was demolished by Ukrainian forces or served as a Ukrainian military base. None of the witnesses saw Ukrainian soldiers operating inside the building. And not one person doubted that the theater was destroyed in a Russian air attack aimed with precision at a civilian target everyone knew was the city’s largest bomb shelter, with children in it.
The lack of bodies led the police officer and a Mariupol Red Cross official to speculate that perhaps fewer than 500 people died, but most survivors suggested the bodies were either pulverized into the dust or removed by the Russians. With the site off-limits to investigators and the rubble itself taken away, witness testimony and photos and video of the theater before and after it was bombed will be crucial, said Clint Williamson, who served as U.S. ambassador-at-large for war crimes issues from 2006 to 2009.
“Without being able to get to the scene, it is going to be difficult to go much beyond that,” he said.
Much, much more at the link!
Kharkiv:
Destruction for the sake of destruction: this is what #Russia is about. Another video from yesterday’s strike on the #Kharkiv Central Park. pic.twitter.com/h3pbowabq9
— Lesia Vasylenko (@lesiavasylenko) May 4, 2022
I’m sure the children’s play area was presenting an overwhelming and existential threat to Russia’s survival!
From the Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group:
The Russian military who have seized control of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv oblast are believed to have created an effective concentration camp where prisoners are subjected to physical and psychological torture.
Oleh Syniehubov, Governor of the Kharkiv Regional Administration, reported on 24 April that the Russian invaders had plundered the contents of one of the factories in Vovchansk and taken them to the Russian Federation. They had then organized a kind of prison, “a real concentration camp, where people are subjected to torture, forced to collaborate, join the Russian Federation armed forces.” Syniehubov added that in Izyum, which he said is under full Russian occupation, the Russians are also trying to force locals to join the Russian army.
On 25 April, the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor announced that it has initiated criminal proceedings under Article 438 of Ukraine’s Criminal Code (violation of the rules and practice of war) over the alleged torture in Vovchansk.
Vovchansk is near the border with the Russian Federation and has been occupied since the first days after Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. On 4 March, Vovchansk Mayor Anatoly Stepanets told Suspilne.ua that the Russians, when they entered the city, had taken the Ukrainian flag from his office and from the City Council. “However they didn’t rip out my heart, and didn’t take my conscience away. We were and remain pro-Ukrainian,” Stepanets said. He added that he had refused to give out ‘aid’ from the Russian military.
Such independence is clearly not to the invaders’ liking. Even before an attempt by the Russians on 22 March to stage a stunt whereby local residents sought a replacement for Stepanets, he had, reportedly, been taken across the border into Russia and threatened, if not tortured, into agreeing to collaborate. Stepanets is 64 years old, and was almost certainly tortured or ill-treated in the video here, which appears to suggest that he is a Russian prisoner.
More at the link!
Kherson:
I’m happy to confirm that telecom connection is fully restored in Kherson. Three telecom operators are available again. Dear Kherson, the problems with service were temporary; as well as russian occupation. Outstanding joint work of local authorities and telecom companies.
— Mykhailo Fedorov (@FedorovMykhailo) May 4, 2022
Rubizhne:
At least 400,000 tons of grain were stolen by russia in the occupied south of Ukraine. That's over 6,000 hoppers. russian thieves are bringing death and famine to the world. Only #ArmUkraineNow can stop them.
(2/2) pic.twitter.com/SnpDrFsM2N— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 4, 2022
Donetsk:
21 civilians killed in Donetsk region by Russians just yesterday, local governor said. 27 more are wounded. This is the highest daily figure since April 8, when Kramatorsk train station was hit by a Russian missile. Supposed 'liberators' of Donbas are exterminating people there pic.twitter.com/6IGVeUTSYB
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) May 4, 2022
Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast:
Makiivka is a large suburb of Donetsk and has been under Russian control in the so-called “people’s republic” in eastern Ukraine since 2014. https://t.co/CHjbHOOmhF
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 4, 2022
Russia continued to bombard everything they could reach in Ukraine over night:
Another night in Ukraine, another barrage of Russian missiles raining down on peaceful Ukrainian cities. They want to break us down with their missile terrorism. But the only thing that will break down in the end is Russia and its capacity to invade, bomb, murder, loot, and rape.
— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) May 4, 2022
Since we’re on the topic of Russian bombardment, I want to direct everyone to this interesting article by COL (ret) Dave Johnson, PhD on Russian artillery and Ukraine:
The Russians are on their heels in the Ukraine war. The Ukrainian wolf, enabled by western intelligence and state-of-the-art weapons, e.g., Javelins, Switchblades, and Phoenix Ghosts, Gepards, et al., are inflicting enormous losses on the bumbling Russian bear. At least this is the story as it is being portrayed in the majority of the media coverage of the war. While this view may be true to some degree, the reporting is skewed by two critical factors.
Why We Believe the Russians Are Losing
First, the Ukrainians control the narrative about the war; reporters largely see what that are shown by their escorts inside Ukrainian territory. Furthermore, the Ukrainians have been exercising incredible operational security. One learns little from reporting about the actual state of the Ukrainian military.
What are the Ukrainian losses? What is the combat effectiveness of their forces? How long can they persist in a war of attrition in which they are vastly outnumbered? These, and a myriad of other questions remain largely obscured, while the flow from Ukrainian and other sources about Russian casualties, equipment losses, and setbacks is continuous.
Second, much of the evaluation by western analysts and pundits who are looked to for explanations of the military aspects of the war are seeing the conflict through western eyes. The military analysts, in particular, see the Russians as inept and unable to operate effectively—not like their own militaries.
These military experts attribute Russian failures to an inability to execute the complexities of combined arms operations and a forced reliance on non-precision weapons. Thus, the Russians are all about brute force, because they are incapable of executing the sophisticated western concepts that substitute precision for mass.
Thus, Russian failings in this regard are not because of their materiel. The Russians have sophisticated weapons and other capabilities. Analysts, almost self-congratulatory in many cases, point to the root cause of Russian difficulties in the Ukraine: despite their high technology kit, they are stymied, because these weapons are in the hands of poorly-trained, unmotivated conscript forces.
Furthermore, this flaw is made fatal by the absence of a competent western-like non-commissioned officer corps and corrupt, risk averse officers who are afraid to exercise initiative.
In essence, the Russian army that is bogged down in Ukraine is a repeat of the Soviet Army that was proven to not be ten-feet tall during their 1980s fiasco in Afghanistan. Here, again, western precision weapons—Stinger man-portable air defense systems, antitank weapons, and a constant flow of munitions—in the hands of U.S. trained and highly motivated Mujahedeen warriors—soundly defeated the Red Army.
Nevertheless, one should recall that the Soviets left Afghanistan in good order, driving home through the Salang Tunnel in 1989 with flags flying. Mohammed Najibullah’s puppet Afghan government in Kabul remained in power until 1992—until the Russians quit providing aid after the collapse of the Soviet Union.[1]
This is the endgame that is not paid much attention to by U.S. observers, whose understanding of the Soviet involvement appears to derive largely from the movie Charlie Wilson’s War. On the other hand, the Afghan government the United States supported for some twenty years vanished within hours of the hasty U.S. departure from Kabul in August 2021.
Are the pundits missing something? What if something else is actually happening in Ukraine that we cannot see because of our narrow view of the war? How do we view the war through Russian eyes?
Fire Instead of Finesse
My sense is that the Russians are fully aware of their tactical shortfalls. In the immortal words of Dirty Harry Callahan, “A man’s got to know his limitations.” Furthermore, rather than a crushing defeat, the Russian’s failure to take Kyiv and decision to change course may not be what it seems. It is certainly not unprecedented. Perhaps the Russians attempted, as they did in Czechoslovakia (1968), Afghanistan (1979), Chechnya (1996,) and Crimea (2014) to execute a rapid coup de main operation with the expectation that the sudden appearance of the Red Army would cause resistance to collapse.
This is what happened in Czechoslovakia, the initial conquest of Afghanistan, and Crimea; it did not work out that way in Chechnya or Ukraine this go. In this current war, as in its past conflicts, Plan B is to revert to what the Russians have always done when faced with a resolute adversary. They turn to fires delivered by cannons, rockets, missiles, and bombs.
The Russian Army has, in my view, been correctly described as an artillery army with tanks. They adhere to the maxim that artillery conquers and infantry occupies. My sense is that the Russians also understand their own Army better than we do and use it in a way that compensates for the deficiencies noted by western observers.
In short, the Russians rely on firepower.
What We Should Expect From the Plodding Bear
If I am correct, then we should expect things to get only worse in Eastern Ukraine as the war continues. This is now a war of attrition, to which the traditional Russian approach of persistent brute force is highly suited.
It is also useful to remember that the Russian army has always been conscript-based without a strong NCO corps (as is, by the way, the highly respected Israeli army). Again, in the eyes of western observers, this why the Russians are incompetent and will lose. Somehow, however, the Russian army has always muddled through against almost all comers. It is not pretty to watch, but they persist and generally prevail in what they set out to do. If he were still alive, it would be interesting to ask Generalfeldmarschall Friedrich Paulus, the commander of the defeated German forces in Stalingrad (and the first field marshal in German history to surrender), his views about the inept Red Army.
An artillery projectile does not need anything but an elevation and a deflection to go where you want it to go. It does not care that it is not a precision munition or that it was fired by a conscript directed by inept sergeants and corrupt officers who do not exercise initiative. Nor does it care about the nature of the target. It just goes where sent and does its high explosive damage.
What Is Legal and What is Not
I am continually surprised during press engagements I have had over the past weeks (CBS, CSPAN, PBS, BBC, others) when journalists are shocked at the Russian employment of illegal weapons—thermobarics, cluster munitions, white phosphorous, mines, et al.
I first remind the reporters these weapons are legal, in the U.S. arsenal, and that we use them: Against military targets.
I also note that the fascination with special weapons is surprising to me, given that they are a minor instruments compared to the other weapons available to Putin in his symphony of horrors. Putin’s, percussion section, to extend the metaphor, is old fashioned, high explosive; precision in many cases is, “did you hit Mariupol?”
What is illegal is the indiscriminate use of any weapon against civilians. This, unfortunately, is something the Russians have historically and routinely practiced. The United States and its Allies did similar things during World War II with area bombing, aerial “interdiction” of anything that moved, and a practice during that war described to me by my father. He was a young paratrooper and told me that in the later months of the war in Germany, if a town was approached and your unit received fire, you backed off and visited hell on it with air and artillery. Then, the citizens generally surrendered, on occasion after “disabling” the fanatics trying to keep them fighting to the end.
It has been over 70 years since World War II and the West has forgotten what a high-intensity, large-scale war involves. The Russians have not. In wars for survival—as Putin is framing the war in Ukraine—there are few niceties, what we now view as humanitarian constraints.
We would be well served to recall the words of Union General William T. Sherman reflecting on the U.S. Civil War: “War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it.”[2]
The Russian Way Is Not Our Way
This is what the Russians do and we should expect this from them in Ukraine. They have demonstrated how they operate historically, at least since the scorched earth policies depicted by Tolstoy in his novel Hadji Murat, set during the irregular warfare in Chechnya and the Caucasus in the 1850s.
Furthermore, the Russian practice of relying on indiscriminate firepower has continued in our times in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, the initial invasion of Eastern Ukraine, and now. We should not be surprised and, more importantly, if we ever face them in combat, we should be prepared for how they operate.
Much, much more thought provoking analysis at the link! Including a full description of the Russian double cross on the humanitarian ceasefire and evacuation corridor in Grozny.
I’m just going to post the first tweet in this thread. The content is disturbing, but if you want to see the rest click through. Warning: the thread deals with torture, murder, sexual assault, and rape on Ukrainian captives and POWs:
Ukrainian army released a tapped phone call between a Russian soldier and his mother. The soldier describes excited how he tortured and killed Ukrainians, and says he enjoys mutilating people. I have translated the calls in this #THREAD. Please be aware of extreme violence. /1
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) May 4, 2022
Your semi-daily bayraktar:
The Ukrainian Navy posted a TB2 UCAV compilation video that showed the previously released footage of the strikes on the two Raptor fast-attack craft, Strela-10, and ZU-23-2, as well as another target.https://t.co/d2OULJlS3t pic.twitter.com/B6mCR0Lesl
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 3, 2022
I think that’s enough for tonight, so let’s finish up.
Your semi daily Patron:
Patron the Dog is setting himself up for a Victory and wishing you all a very good morning! pic.twitter.com/JhMSZVqyrs
— Free Ukraine (@Mihoflowersy) May 2, 2022
Patron gets some help!!!!
Another rising star among #Ukraine's service dogs – a Belgian Sheperd Almaz ('Diamond') now devotedly sniffing mines in #Kyiv oblast.#StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/Iw9vMfEfIu
— Stratcom Centre UA (@StratcomCentre) May 4, 2022
Your semi daily Chef Jose Andres:
"Together, we can change the world if we really believe it."
– @ChefJoseAndres tells @StephenAtHome how everyone can put their talents to work helping others. Watch #LSSC tonight for more from the @WCKitchen founder! pic.twitter.com/5iv1XgCxvq
— The Late Show (@colbertlateshow) May 4, 2022
Open thread!
John Revolta
Thanks for the report, and all the reports, Adam.
Ishiyama
I’m keeping my eyes on Nova Kakhovka. Look at the MOD map.
Old School
When the war started, it seemed the consensus was that Russia did not have the supplies nor the support to distribute supplies to troops if the fighting lasted more than a week or two.
Has Russia built up this area? Or is it still a major problem for them?
debbie
Thanks, Adam. I hope Belarus is prepared to lose and be cheated against.
Jay
Thank you again Adam.
grammypat
A couple of pics in The Guardian of a May 9 parade rehearsal in Moscow.
Check out those street lines!
And these. Drink much?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
This is starting to get into “we will have trouble telling if these were deliberate war crimes or if the Russians are simply this drunk and stupid ” territory. How long before it comes out that all these fires and explosions in Russia proper were because someone didn’t know how to read the GPS were ordering another missile attack.
grumbles
I know this can only be answered by people who won’t, and I also hate putting this out there, but I know I’m not the only person to think it.
My understanding of the standoff is that The Azof Regiment and the 36th are well dug in but isolated; and the Russians control surrounding terrain for the most part, but are weak, exhausted and undersupplied, but are at least from a command perspective are invested in taking it.
So my question is, given that the Russian military has recently shown willingness to use chemical weapons elsewhere, why don’t they in the Azofstahl tunnels?
Leto
I just like seeing this, that’s all.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: the US military had issues with that, troops misreading the GPS coordinates and calling in airstrikes on their heads instead of the targets. Took some specific focused training, and hardware reconfigs, but got it sorted. I can only wish the Russians were doing that to themselves.
Major Major Major Major
Jeez that Johnson article perfectly describes some of my more depressing thoughts on the topic, but like with actual expertise.
Jerzy Russian
The update from Ukraine’s Defense Ministry is from April 23?
That soldier bragging about torture is one sick puppy. He seems to be one of many in that army.
danielx
@grammypat:
Serious alcohol abuse being one of the many problems that have always afflicted Russian society. For that matter, the Soviet General Staff went through the 1941-1945 period drunk most of the time.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
TIK and WW2 on you tube are covering that. Here is TIK covering the initial attack of Operation Uranus in mind numbing detail. Seems more like Germans being racist assholes with their Romanian allies is what really got them in trouble.
Jay
@grumbles:
So my question is, given that the Russian military has recently shown willingness to use chemical weapons elsewhere, why don’t they in the Azofstahl tunnels?
From reports, the tunnels and rooms are expansive, designed to store, load and move raw ingredients, tools etc, with multiple entrances, exits, ventilation and various lifts and machinery to move stuff to the surface across a vast industrial complex.
The use of chemical weapons may simply deny RU forces any access to the tunnel systems and Azov, Marine defences and the civilians still there, with out a greater knowledge of the networks.
Quite often, US use of CW against VC tunnel networks was often counterproductive because the tunnel systems were larger and more complex than expected.
Adam L Silverman
@Old School: It’s still a problem.
Alison Rose ???
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: How do you say Porque no los dos? in Russian?
Thank you as always, Adam. That letter from the little kid…oh my heart.
Nice to see another hero pupper on the job.
Adam L Silverman
@Leto: You get the email I sent last night?
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: I did write about this several times at the beginning of the reinvasion.
Adam L Silverman
@grumbles: My understanding is that the underground portions of the facility is hardened.
Adam L Silverman
@Jerzy Russian: That’s just weird. However, the MOD page has been loading funny. The right one is there on that site now, so give me a minute to fix it.
Leto
@Adam L Silverman: yes’sir!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Those tunnels were made to resist an nuclear attack to they would have filtration systems.
Also, I gather the defenders can get out of them at will. The Russian control of the city is a bit sketchy.
grumbles
Thanks, all, for the explanations.
Adam L Silverman
@Jerzy Russian: It should be all fixed.
Ohio Mom
@Major Major Major Major: I’d describe the Johnson article as a big douse of icy cold water.
A reminder that just because I want certain things to be true — that the Russians are bumblers, their supplies stolen out from under them, and no real match for the spunky and spirited Ukraines who have right on their side — does not make them true.
What a mess the Ukrainian people are in.
Omnes Omnibus
Accurate artillery requires everyone from observer to fire direction to the gun/launcher to do their jobs with precision. The other method is just to throw lots of shit down range. If you have lots of shit to throw and don’t care who gets hurt, that method is easier.
Jerzy Russian
@Adam L Silverman: That did the trick. Given the situation there, they are allowed to have a computer glitch or two.
West of the Rockies
That phone call between a Russian mother and son… and the previous similar call between a husband and wife…
Does this represent the Russian military? Are these a few random psychos in a country of many millions?
Here in the US we talk about the vile 27%. We know our military has committed atrocities.
This evil, gleeful Russian violence, is it the result of 100 years of oppression? What percentage of Russians support this? Are they a collectively broken people?
Major Major Major Major
@Ohio Mom:
This is true though, the question is how much it matters when you’re willing to be a slow moving wavefront of indiscriminate destruction.
@Adam L Silverman: and not just you! I certainly didn’t come up with it myself.
Adam L Silverman
@Jerzy Russian: I had trouble loading the site both last night and tonight.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ohio Mom: Oh, those things are still true, but the Russians have already factored that into their plans. It’s a little like this.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: You’re the expert, but my impression is the Russians are doing both.
Jerzy Russian
@West of the Rockies: I did not click to the complete thread. I wonder if the mother thought “Jesus, how could I have fucked up his upbringing that much?” or “Attaboy!”.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: Exactly. A lot of people have had this concern.
debbie
@Omnes Omnibus:
The shoulder thing Ukraine’s using to shoot planes and missiles down. Is something built into the weapon that pretty much handles all the aiming calculations or are the shooters really as good as they look?
(Sorry for the lack of military vocabulary.)
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
my understanding is that there are some nuclear bunkers and tunnels under the site. While they would be good for shelter, and the doors could be used to limit movement, they would not be good for defense.
The UA defenders at Donetsk Airport used the runway maintenance tunnels and the basement areas for months, with out the RU forces using CW , not even tear gas.
Jerzy Russian
@Omnes Omnibus: I think we can see that they don’t care who gets hurt so they are going with the easy method for now. As you said, at some point they will run out shit to throw, but I don’t know how close they are to that.
Omnes Omnibus
@debbie: Anti-aircraft stuff is out of my area of knowledge. That being said, depending on the weapon, there are various guidance systems and the userd have to know what they are doing.
TL;DR: I don’t really know, but yes.
Jerzy Russian
@debbie: I would assume some sort of guidance is built in the system. Given the speeds of the missiles and the distances, I would think that is probably would be next to impossible for a human to aim at and actually hit a flying missile reliably.
debbie
@Omnes Omnibus:
Thanks.
@Jerzy Russian:
Also thanks.
Jay
@debbie:
most modern MANPAD’s are “fire and forget”. Where the skill of the “shooter” comes in is identifying the target, estimating range, tracking the target long enough for the “seeker head” to confirm a “lock”, and then firing before the target is out of the missiles range.
I would guess that more than a few of the Cruise missiles and aircraft shot down were by UA Airforce aircraft.
Kattails
@Jerzy Russian: I did read it. Your answer is pretty much option # 2. Ghastly.
West of the Rockies
How are the sanctions hitting Russia now? I’ve not seen that addressed in a few weeks. I hear “the oligarchs” are getting restless to some degree. What about the average Russian on the street? Are there soup lines and people fighting over the last jar of peanut butter? Candidly–and I’m not thrilled to admit this–I’m hoping people are suffering and at least fantasizing about offing that hideous little goblin (fat face Putin). Then the misery in Ukraine might abate.
Night after night, Russian atrocities are cataloged along with stories of brave Ukrainians. It’s incredibly informative and valuable material (thank you, Adam). But it’s also wildly frustrating. Maybe if there was Russian suffering, it might actually humanize them for me. Maybe I’d feel empathy instead of worsening rage.
I’ve had Russian students in my teaching days. I knew them to be good, creative, humorous people. But the nightly litany of vileness is overwhelming. Am I the only one who feels this?
PJ
@Ohio Mom: You can’t fight a war without soldiers. It’s unclear to me where the Russians are going to get them to continue fighting. It’s going to take a couple of months for them to train their current group of conscripts, and they can’t force them to go fight in Ukraine if they resist (it’s illegal to send them there in the first place.) Who wants to go die in Ukraine? Even if they declare war and start mass conscription, it’s going to take months to train the trainers to train the new troops, and the soldiers who are fighting in Ukraine in the meantime will be taken apart. This is not a Great Patriotic War for the Russians. It’s a failed special operation. Who is going to want to die for that?
debbie
@Jay:
Thanks. I’ve seen a couple of videos of a soldier leaning against the side of a pick-up and firing. It was probably a tank or something because he wasn’t aiming toward the sky, though I’ve seen those, too.
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
given the twits of “Ukraine Roadside Maintenance”, I wonder how many of the RU “gun tubes” are worn out? were worn out and put into “reserve” with out repair?
Somebody else “buying” parts that never arrived, got paid, spent the money on a yacht or NYC condo?
Mike in NC
Currently watching a superb Dutch movie called “The Forgotten Battle” (2020) on Netflix, about Allied efforts to liberate Antwerp as the Nazis make a fighting retreat. Primarily focuses on British glider-borne infantry crash landing in nearby rivers and trying to connect with resistance fighters.
PJ
@West of the Rockies: Are we a collectively broken people? Think about Abu Ghraib. The soldiers who were punished for that were only punished because it wasn’t their job to torture prisoners, that was the job of the CIA. That stuff went on in Afghanistan, Iraq, Guantanamo, and various black op sites in Europe. Who raised the people who provided justification for that torture, who implemented it as policy, who carried it out?
Anoniminous
@debbie:
Shoulder fired anti-aircraft missiles, e.g., Stinger, are not designed as anti-missile systems and it would take an act of Odin for one of them to successfully intercept a cruise missile.
The Ukrainians are using their S300 which are intended to be used as anti-cruise missile systems.
Jay
@debbie:
similar systems are used for ground systems. The older ones are straight “line of sight”, aim and fire, estimating target speed, mid age ones, can correct guidance to the target, based on operator input, the most modern ones are like the fire and forget MANPADs.
lexilis
@debbie: MANPAD missiles (“man-portable air defense”) like the Stinger use an infrared seeker in the missile nose to track the target’s infrared signature. Before firing the seeker “locks on” the target and the gives the person firing a lock-on signal who then fires. After firing an onboard processor continuously calculates an intercept trajectory and steers the missile to impact. Other (more modern) systems like the British Starstreak use a different type of missile guidance (laser-based) that is much less susceptible to countermeasures (flares, etc.)
ETA: I see that others have made similar comments comments above.
Jay
@Anoniminous:
some of the Soviet/Russian cruise missiles are sub sonic, some are supersonic, some of the missiles are ballistic, not cruise.
Russian AAM’s like the S-300 don’t have a great track record against modern supersonic cruise missiles.
Low flying subsonic cruise missiles could be taken out by a MANPAD.
Supersonic cruise missiles could be chased down and shot down by fighter aircraft.
The S-300 does have a track record that’s not too bad, against older ballistic missiles.
Mallard Filmore
@43 West of the Rockies
There is a YouTube video that I will post in tomorrow’s thread, by an economist. Apparently the top Russian bank bureaucrat put out a paper very recently. What I remember from the video,
(1) lots of Russians will go into the “import business” by traveling to other countries and bringing stuff back as baggage. Good for importing Gucci bags I guess, more important stuff will have tu use a different path.
(2) Russia will go through a period of de-industrialization.
West of the Rockies
@PJ: I ask in earnestness, not snark: were our soldiers tearing out fingernails, breaking legs, cutting open penises, shooting girls in the legs for sport?
Maybe a fixed percentage of all humans regardless of origin, color, religion, sex, profession, etc. are simply vile, putrid creatures.
Medicine Man
I think quite a few of the Chechens are going to get their beards cut off trying to take that steel plant.
Aziz, light!
@PJ: Training? Who said anything about training? Many Russian conscripts — the ones who made it back home — have related that they got no training or coherent command to speak of, and in many cases were given weapons that didn’t work, when they were sent into battle. Putin is not going to stop sending these guys to the front line, and does not care how many of them die as long as he can use them to inflict more damage. He may care when he runs out but that could be a year away.
PJ
@West of the Rockies: I wasn’t trying to equate specific behaviors of US soldiers or agents with those of Russians. From what we are hearing the behavior of Russian soldiers is far worse, in no small part because it seems they are not trained not to do these things, and may be actively encouraged to do them. If you want the specific details of how US prisoners were tortured, you can Google it (this is just the first example when I did a search in response to your question: https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-02-10/torture-war-on-terror-nashiri-guantanamo-black-sites-george-w-bush
My larger point was that despicable behaviors are not limited to any nation or ethnicity. To paraphrase Sherman, war is inherently cruel, and some soldiers take that cruelty to heart.
Mallard Filmore
@West of the Rockies:
from YouTube …
Channel: “Joe Blogs”
video: https://youtu.be/oUmDeQDKxQA
title: “RUSSIA Faces Years of REVERSE INDUSTRIALIZATION Due to Lack of TECHNOLOGY Says BANK OF RUSSIA”
Jay
@Mallard Filmore:
Flying where on what? A bunch of nations arn’t allowing Russian flights, and with their theft of leased aircraft, a lot of places are just going to seize and ground Russian flights as soon as they land.
YY_Sima Qian
The essay by Col. Dave Johnson is an important corrective reminder, particularly that no one in open source really know the state of Ukrainian military.
I do think Soviet/Russian doctrine has always been to replicate the highly successful “deep battle” maneuver warfare of Operation Bagration & Operation Uranus, not the meat grinders that was 1st half of Battle of Stalingrad & the Battles of Kursk, Seelow Heights & Berlin. It is certainly not afraid to engage & win attritional meat grinders, though. Even during Bagration & Uranus Russian casualties still outnumbered Germans.
At this point, I am not seeing the effectiveness of the Russian brute force approach, either. Not entirely sure of it is because the Russian Army has atrophied & degraded too much to be effective for even this kind of warfare, or if Putin has spread the Russian Army too thin in Eastern Ukraine, or both. Putin can still correct the latter, but not the former.
Carlo Graziani
@Aziz, light!:
I ran into a buzzsaw when I tried to write about this, because I did an immensely idiotic thing: I casually coupled a generic discussion about the bestiality of war to the specific atrocities that had been carried out deliberately and with maiice aforethought at Bucha. As a result I got my ass handed to me, and had to deal with weeks of accusations of “justifying genocide”.
But setting aside the fact that I was a moron for doing that specific moronic thing: I was trying to make a serious point that people have a lot of difficulty understanding. It is really difficult for any army, of any nation, to conduct any warfare in a non-bestial manner, because that is the nature of war. It brings out the worst in people, which, it turns out is never buried very deep in people anywhere, even in people living right near by our own neighborhoods.
It takes years of constant indoctrination. It takes investment, and specialized legal training in the Law of War of a separate officer corps charged with maintaining a bright line, and constant training. This is what Western armed forces do, at considerable expense and effort, and still you get occasional fuck-ups such as Abu Ghraib. If you don’t do it—as the Russians do not, since they’ve never seen the point—you get much worse results wherever their armies roll through.
Mallard Filmore
@Jay:
There are a number of nations that still fly their own commercial aircraft to cities in Russia. Aeroflot may be screwed but it is not the end of the industry in Russia.
Also, the picture in Joe Blogs video looks like the tourists were in buses or trains.
Carlo Graziani
@West of the Rockies: My expectation is that by late June at the latest, an economic tsunami is going to envelop Russia. The magnitude of the phenomenon is likely to be large enough to push the actual battles in Ukraine below the fold of the front pages of major newspapers. The word “collapse” will feature prominently in the stories above the fold.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Soviet/Russian doctrine used to be that mass would beat NATO.
Recent Russian doctrine was that a “technical” Army would beat NATO,
but as you noted, last night, even the PLA was not impressed in exercises.
Ukraine’s Military has not only managed since 2014, train to many NATO standards, but 8 years of constant both low level combat up to RU past attempts to take Mariupol, have given them a whole new level at horrible cost.
Jay
@Mallard Filmore:
back in the day, I made the mistake of taking extra Lee jeans to Moscow rather than Levi’s.
Wrong sizes too.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: The problem is that what you’re saying is the nature if war is not actually the nature of war. You’ve taken some exceedingly abhorrent characteristics of war and miscategorized them as the nature of war.
Martin
@debbie: No, they’re actively targeted in various ways. The US Javelin picks up on the heat signature of the tank the operator is aiming at and maintains that through flight, so even if the target moves, it’ll steer into it. The nLAW antitank is less fancy. It flies to the target the operator is aiming at and the operator needs to keep aiming for a few seconds after launch, which is sent wirelessly to the rocket, and then the rocket is able to steer into the target assuming it keeps moving in the same direction and speed. The US anti-aircraft rockets are also heat signature which is why you see planes and helicopters popping out flares to distract the missile. The UK Starstreak uses optics, though. The operator lines up a visual target and the rocket tracks that target and hits it. There are no countermeasures – flares, etc. won’t deter it. If the operator gets a good fix on the aircraft, it’s pretty much guaranteed dead.
So it’s a range of different sensing systems of various complexities. That affects the cost, and therefore how many can be fielded.
But sensors that can track a plane at high speed – they’re really cheap now. I’m guessing that the era of manned aircraft/tanks is quickly closing because it’s just so damn easy to kill them now.
Mallard Filmore
@Jay: Having bought jeans in both Thailand and Philippines, I understand the aggravation.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: The f*ck ups were more than occasional, & that would characterize the actions of specific units (elements of the Australian SAS in Afghanistan) or individuals (Eddie Gallagher). The torture, extraordinary rendition & CIA black sites (in Jordan, Pakistan, Thailand, Poland & Bulgaria, etc.) was official policy during the GWB years, & countries caught up in these programs (either having had persons taken of its territories or persons transit through its territories) included large parts of Europe, Africa & SE Asia).
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: In my opinion (everyone has to have one, right?) Johnson is being a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian. Sometimes the conventional wisdom in plain sight is simply correct.
The Russian ground forces had nothing but paper strength coming into this war. They never trained for this specific type of conflict. They did no staff work, or, for that matter any competent intelligence work. There was a view at the outset of the war that in my opinion was very much conditioned by memories of the fearsome Soviet war machine. The Russian army is a pale shadow of that machine. None of the actions that they fought in the years prior to 2022 suggested that they were ready for an operation on the scale of what they attempted on February 24, or even what they are attempting in Donbas now.
To talk about traditions of the Russian army founded on use of firepower is just blather. In recent decades, the Russians have used firepower to reduce civilian cities, not as part of tactical engagements. I don’t understand why everyone is nodding sagely at Johnson delivering himself of such pearls of wisdom. I still think the Russians are just shitting themselves.
burnspbesq
As if the problems that will arise from Ukrainian wheat production being offline for the foreseeable future aren’t bad enough, the current heat wave in India and Pakistan is going to drastically reduce crop yields there. We’re on course for food shortages across much of Asia and Africa.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: Slavery, Jim Crow, Jan 6, and a few other things tell me that it’s not so much the nature of war as it is our broader nature. But in war, the societal guardrails that keep most of us in line are taken away and need to be replaced by conscious, front-of-mind efforts by military leaders. It can be prevented, but requires an active effort. Deal with it passively, and who knows what you’ll get. And if military leaders are engaging in the bad acts, well, you’re just all kinds of fucked then because you’ll now create a culture of bad acts.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: You are correct about that, but I think that reinforces my point.
War Brutalizes is one of those iron laws of human nature, just like Power Corrupts.
If you ever give up on mindful institutional enforcement from the top down of the Laws of War, then warriors become the worst people you would ever want to meet, the opposite of people’s romantic notion of knights in armor. That has been ever true of all armies, and we Americans have been shamed by such episodes.
But the difference is, they do shame us.
West of the Rockies
@Mallard Filmore:
That was an interesting vid link. Thank you! He did not even address Russia’s brain-drain and aging population.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: I can’t speak to the credibility of supposed reports by Chinese participants of joint exercises, but in hindsight the sorry spectacles of Russian organized military competitions were indicative of deep rot.
BeautifulPlumage
I keep going back to earlier threads* tagged in in these posts about Russian manufacturing and Russian demographics.
1. Russia relies on imported electronics and other parts for many of their products, including weapons. Which they can’t get right now (or can they? Are sanctions working?)
2. Russia has a shrinking population of military-aged males.
*sorry, not gonna search right now
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I am more w/ you in terms of the Russian Army’s ability (or inability) to conduct offensive operations, but I think its massive firepower can still prove formidable in defense when the Ukrainian Army attempts to recapture lost territories, when its units will have to concentrate & come out in the open from fortifications, complex terrain features, & built up areas. I think that is the kind of meat grinder attritional warfare that Col. Johnson was talking about. I am not nearly as sanguine as you that the war will come to a short end due to either economic collapse in Russia or morale collapse in the Russian Army. Morale is far more likely to collapse & cause an army to dissolve in maneuver warfare than positional warfare.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Being shamed by bestial behavior is an important distinction, but the US has never been shamed enough by such inevitable aspects of warfare to be less eager to enter into violent conflict. What has deterred the US, to the extent that it sometimes has been, are the economic & human tolls to itself, not the destruction & brutality visited on foreign populations.
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman:
I don’t believe so. Perhaps this is a philosophical disagreement. I want to ensure that discussions of war are stripped of the romantic views of chivalric combat that I frequently read, but that are very much at odds from the historical record of how wars are experienced and reported by people who actually fight them (of whom, I admit I am certainly not one).
That record suggests that once one strips away useful political narratives, even “good” wars have awful, despicable actions by people on our own side. That it is astonishingly difficult to get people to behave morally in a war, and astonishingly difficult to get people who were not present in the heat of battle to understand why immoral decisions (such as, for example, shooting inconvenient prisoners of war rather than guarding them) were taken hurriedly at the time.
And that if one wants to stay mostly on the right side of those lines, most of the time, one has to prepare in advance, and train one’s troops in advance. Which the US Armed forces spend an eye-watering amount of money and effor on. Surely you don’t believe that’s wasted?
the pollyanna from hell
@YY_Sima Qian: As Ukraine acquires more expensive toys they will be the one to stand off and pound. We trust and pray they will do it competently, with much different success than the Russians are bringing off.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: That is possible, although setting up correct defensive dispositions is, as I understand such matters, also an art. If the Russians showed themselves competent at that art, it would be a first for them in this war.
YY_Sima Qian
@the pollyanna from hell: Counter battery radars should be at the top of any Ukrainian request list.
Partly OT, after the tactical & operational debacles of the Sino-Vietnamese War of ’79, the PLA purchased a couple of sets of Cymbeline counter battery radars from UK, which proved instrumental in allowing it to dominate the Vietnamese artillery during positional skirmishes & battles along the Sino-Vietnamese border throughout the 80s.
Ksmiami
@West of the Rockies: we need to make the Russian people suffer and suffer. There’s no coming back from this and I hope we can give anti- artillery equipment to Ukraine
bjacques
@Ksmiami:
You’re being awfully and unreasonably hard on the Russian people. Maybe a majority support the war, even for allowing for generations of self-preservation in front of a pollster or news reporter, but what they believe is irrelevant. That some revealed themselves as ghouls is evident, but we have form there as well.
The West’s sanctions are aimed at bringing the economy of Russia to the point that it can no longer afford this war or any other. It’s not to drive the people to revolt or punish them if they don’t. The only agency Russian people really have is stochastic, hastening the economic collapse through time-honored individual apathy and selfishness through (e.g.) hoarding, flight, and draft-dodging. Those people waving flags or painting Z on their cars on Russian TV sure as hell aren’t standing in long lines at army recruiting centers in Moscow, St. Pete, or other big cities like Ukrainian TV showed even in mid-sized towns. Russian TV isn’t even bothering to pretend city folk are rushing to the front.
Taking this out on Russians in general is just going to chase off ones we know *don’t* support the war.
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: First rule of holes, dude.
The explicit, publicly stated aim of this war is to eliminate a nation that has no historical right to exist That is what drives the behavior we are observing, not inadequate legal training
Chief Oshkosh
@PJ:
Republicans.
Republicans.
Republicans.
SAFSQ
Chief Oshkosh
@Carlo Graziani:
I could be misremembering, but was that a fuck-up? I thought it was more-or-less planned, approved, and executed.
Jesse
Adam, I wonder if you could comment on the new reporting about the use of US-generated intelligence given to Ukraine. Reporting I’ve seen in Germany highlights, in particular, the use of intelligence by the Ukrainians for the purpose of taking out (some) Russian generals, though surely the US support goes beyond “just” information about the location of generals. Actually I would imagine there’s a fair amount of US intelligence; surely some is even held close (not shared with Ukraine).
Geminid
@Chief Oshkosh: in their history of the planning of the second Iraq war, Cobra II, suthors Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor attribute the human rights violations at Abu Gharaib to Donald Rumsfeld’s interference with the Army’s planning. Rumsfeld “off-ramped” scores of MP companies that the Army had intended to support the combat formations.
When Rumsfeld’s paradigm of a swift victory and quick drawdown of forces collapsed under the weight of Iraqi resistance, the Army improvised with poorly prepared forces that stayed behind the curve. The prison’s commander, who happened to be a woman and a National Guard general, took the fall, but Gordon and Trainor debited ultimate responsibility to the arrogant Rumsfeld
I would highly recommend Gordon and Trainor’s history.They cover the period from 9/11/2001 to the weeks after the fall of Badhdad when Paul Bremer began his disastrous overlordship. The authors describe the mistaken assumptions that led to Bush’s decision to invade. Then they detail the constant interference by Rumsfeld in Army planning and execution that sowed the seeds of subsequent failure.
Geminid
@Jesse: The New York Times reporting is getting a lot of coverage. It may well be covered by Dr. Silverman tonight.
It’s explosive news; the reporting I read in the Times of Israel’s story has the Pentagon acknowledging in general our furnishing of intelligence but disclaiming this particulr story. This deniel may be pro forma.
debbie
@Carlo Graziani:
War is the failure of everything civilized.
There is no civilized way to conduct war and there never has been. Maybe you’ve watched too many old British war movies. They’re all bullshit.
debbie
Thanks everyone for the explanations. They’ve really helped.
TonyG
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: If Hitler and his generals had not been stupid enough to believe their own Master Race propaganda, they would not have assumed that the Soviet Union could be defeated in a few months. Their stupidity saved the world.
Subsole
@Martin: Late to the thread, but deal with it passively and your unit disintegrates into marauding pillagers when you take the city. And then you lose the city because your guys were scattered willy nilly in drunken, post-rape comas while the bad guys showed up in good order and looking for payback.
Also, if your people were beastly enough, word WILL get around. Which means ftom that moment forward, your enemy will be going into battle with a certain…anticipatory gleam…in their eye. Your undisciplined thugs just made the war harder for everyone else. Your enemy will fight harder, be less open to surrender, and great gods above save you if they take you alive.
We sink a LOT of effort into humane conduct not because we are trying to fight war humanely, but because such conduct is often necessary to maintain discipline.
We had no problem laying napalm on every inch of Japan we could reach. But looters and murderers and torturers? We stomp that shit HARD, because if we have to constantly worry about whether you’re too busy cutting off ears to make morning formation, then we cannot depend upon you to function as a component of a unit.
And if that be the case, you aren’t much use to the war effort.
@Chief Oshkosh: The fact the CEO signed off on the fuckup doesn’t make it less of a fuckup…
Subsole
@Geminid: Basically, they just handed an entire country full of people over to the Young Republicans…
@TonyG: For that matter, I was always astounded that Japan honestly believed it was going to conquer China…I mean…dude. I am no strategerist, but I can look at a map and see a small size discrepancy.
terry chay
@Carlo Graziani: I agree. What bothers me more about the analysis is it is full of straw men (anyone crowing about the superiority of NCOs is predicting a quick victory for Ukraine), false equivalency (Russia system is superior because their puppet regime Afghanistan lasted 4 years longer the US, equates Russia with Soviets when needed), and outright falsehoods (that anyone believes the defeating the Soviets in Afghanistan was the end goal and not bleeding blood and treasure, there is no OS reporting on large losses on the Ukraine side), etc.
In fact, it reads as someone who might have gone on record as predicting the quick collapse of Ukraine having bitterness they were dead wrong. Esp. the dig/straw man about those who talked about corruption, poor planning, poor training, and the lack of an NCO corps as being fatal for the offensive they were engaging in. The people who did that turned out to be right.
On the other hand, I do think it’s good to not get ahead of ourselves with optimism. I get that. If that was the intent, then acknowledge where others were right, take your medicine, and advocate restraint of enthusiasm.
Because this piece reads as a doubling down about how “Russia is going to win in the end.” It’ll be a doubling down of embarrassment half a year (or longer) from now when their entire 8 year adventure in Ukraine collapses slowly, then all at once, which it will inevitably. Too many things are going against them (manpower, economy, etc.). No amount of progroms and terrorism will stop that. History has shown it hardens your enemy if they have the agency to fight back (and even in cases where their agency is very limited).
currawong
I read from several different sources several weeks ago that Russia’s arsenal of missiles was finite i.e. once they have used the ones they have, they will be difficult to replace as they need embargoed Western technology.
Is this correct? Are the missiles still flying because no-one dares tell Putin they’re running out or are they able to replace them?
If they do run out, this will limit their ability to perform surgical strikes though, TBH, accurately hitting military targets isn’t a concern of theirs.
terry chay
@currawong: No, their arsenal of precision guided missiles is finite. Their arsenal of dumb bombs, artillery, and standard ballistic missiles is essentially infinite.
Yes, you are correct, their ability to perform surgical strikes will be limited. In fact, it is already limited. If you check the reports you see the Pentagon lists total estimates of cruise missile launches since the start of the war. So, while the total has been increasing, the rate has been decreasing until recently. The last part actually speaks toward desperation as their stockpiles may be very low and some have estimated they’ve never fully recovered to the levels of 2014 (before sanctions affected their ability to produce them without having to resort to loopholes and such).
I actually feel that the fact that only about 50% of PGMs are hitting their target as speaking volumes to how poor their post-2014 recovery was. But there is also the fact that so many of their jets have been shot down — normally they “standoff” meaning fire PGM from a safe place, so they shouldn’t be shot down — being shot down means they’re being used in close air support mode where they are vulnerable unless they’ve established air supremacy (Russia never even established air superiority).
Others (like the sobering article above) feel that this will drive them to artillery, dumb bombs, and random missile fire which makes them more dangerous. I think that’s silly because they’ve already shown a predilection to that historically and in this conflict. How can they be driven more to something they’re already doing pretty much constantly? It presupposes that NATO has learned nothing from previous Russian doctrine and is somehow getting caught with their pants down when all signs point to that they (and Ukraine) were well aware of it but simply cannot save cities like Mariupol from their fate without escalating.
currawong
@terry chay: Thanks for that. The article posted on BJ more recently by Carlo Graziani backs up and highlights the problems Russia now faces.