First, what is driving the increase in infection?
Largely Omicron subvariant BA.2 and increasingly, BA.2.12.1
When we look at the northeast, a few things emerge
First, infections started rising around March 20 (give or take a few days)
2/n pic.twitter.com/wJj62xCpIJ
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@AshishKJha46) May 8, 2022
White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator:
Cases are up 3-4X in the northeast — from New York to CT, RI, and Massachusetts
As you see, it began rising around March 20
Throughout the pandemic, we’ve seen about 3 week lag until deaths begin to rise
So we’d expect by April 10 or so, deaths beginning to climb
Do we? 3/nWell, not so much
Deaths are up a bit, and about 6 weeks after cases began rising
Not what you would have expected
Now, hospitalizations are up some in these states, but again, not as much as one would have expected
So what is happening? 4/8If you look at the case-fatality rate now in places like NY or MA
Down to 0.3% (that’s deaths today divided by cases 3 weeks ago)
And given we’re missing lots of cases (because of home testing)
CFR is even lower
Remember, throughout the pandemic, CFR has been closer to 1.6%So in the northeast, we’re seeing a real split between cases and deaths
With CFR down 80%
So what explains it?
High booster rates and treatments
And testing
These states do more tests, have higher booster rates than many other places
So what happens next? 6/9Unfortunately, other parts of our nation have lower booster rates and less testing
So the virus can spread more easily without detection
And the population is less well protected
Which worries me for the weeks/months ahead as BA.2.12.1 spreads to other, less boosted places 7/And it worries me for the fall/winter
Because if we do see a wave of infections, we’ll want to be able to protect people
Like with the next generation of vaccines that are likely coming
And treatments
And tests
None of which will be available unless Congress steps up nowAnd of course, during waves, we’ll want to have plenty of masks available for Americans
And improvements in ventilation/filtration
And keep vigilant for future variants
And did I mention — keep vaccinating the world?
Those are the jobs ahead of us 9/10So the bottom line is this
We’re at a point in the pandemic where we know how to manage the virus
To keep infections low
To prevent serious illness
And to protect the most vulnerable
And that’s our focus right nowKeep getting people and communities the tools they need
Tests, vaccines, Evusheld, masks, treatments, and more
And ensure we have the resources to continue this work moving forward
And manage the pandemic in a way that protects lives and livelihoods End
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As poor nations seek Covid pills, officials fear a repeat of the AIDS crisis. Antiviral pills, plentiful in the United States (although hard to come by in some areas) are scarce overseas. Health advocates want to expand access but face obstacles https://t.co/gbttYeehnc
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) May 9, 2022
China's two biggest cities tightened COVID-19 curbs on their residents on Monday, raising new frustration and even questions about the legality of its uncompromising battle with the virus. https://t.co/yWWkoBw0Ge
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) May 9, 2022
“Covering China business and finance at The Economist”:
China's export growth slowed to single digits, the weakest in almost two years, as tighter and wider COVID curbs halted factory production and crimped domestic demand https://t.co/39NwugTloW pic.twitter.com/5st76hffMb
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 9, 2022
WATCH: Emotional scenes unfolded at the Auckland airport on as fully vaccinated travelers from around 60 countries including the U.S., UK and Singapore were allowed to enter New Zealand without needing to quarantine or isolate https://t.co/FiyIEYLyrD pic.twitter.com/OKmbnDP9Sw
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 8, 2022
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An antibody survey has found that most kids in the US have caught the coronavirus. Researchers found that most children aged 1–17 had probably been infected by February this year, and infection rates in children exceed those observed in adults https://t.co/WybechLsfw pic.twitter.com/BHEboZ917P
— nature (@Nature) May 9, 2022
Researchers track the rise & fall of #SARSCoV2 in the saliva and nasal cavities of people newly infected with the #coronavirus.
The study was the first to follow acute #COVID19 over time through repeated sampling.https://t.co/yY5dZinlV8
— MicrobesInfect (@MicrobesInfect) May 8, 2022
New vaccines ultimately may prove better at fighting coronavirus variants. Currently, 195 vaccine candidates at different stages of development are being studied worldwide, out of which 41 are in clinical trials in US, including updated mRNA vaccines https://t.co/g7yo3WEooE pic.twitter.com/XXNpJiZENl
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) May 8, 2022
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Try to tell the people in Puerto Rico the pandemic is over with >130 new cases per 100,000 residents, a 15% test positivity rate on the rise, increasing hospitalizations, ICU admits and deathshttps://t.co/QPRo6jaOka @medriva pic.twitter.com/EV5wqEySJ6
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) May 8, 2022
Marburg, Ebola, and brewers yeast?
Former National Security Advisor having a normal one. https://t.co/y0TOL9KOv1
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) May 9, 2022
On The Road – Albatrossity – Spring 2022 in Flyover Country – 2
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
315 new cases yesterday. This is from the NYSDOH so it doesn’t include home tests.
YY_Sima Qian
On 5/8 Mainland China reported 401 new domestic confirmed (236 previously asymptomatic), 3,859 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 domestic suspect cases, & 13 new deaths.
Guangdong Province reported 28 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 12 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 7 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 189 active domestic confirmed & 46 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Guangxi “Autonomous” Region 8 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 71 active domestic asymptomatic cases (59 at Fangchenggang & 12 at Baise) in the province.
Hunan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, at Huaihua, a person coming from Yunnan & tested positive upon entry. 3 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 23 active domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. All areas of the province are now at Low Risk.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region did not report any new domestic positive cases. 8 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 25 active domestic confirmed (24 at Manzhouli in Hulun Buir & 1 at Chifeng) cases in the province. 4 sub-districts at Manzhouli in Hulun Buir are currently at Medium Risk.
At Tianjin Municipality there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case remaining.
Shandong Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 47 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 55 active domestic confirmed cases & 483 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As not all of the administrative divisions in the province provide data on recoveries, I cannot track the count of active cases in all of the administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Shanxi Province 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 13 active domestic confirmed (all at Taiyuan) & 40 active domestic asymptomatic (all at Taiyuan) cases remaining.
Hebei Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case. 29 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed & 317 active asymptomatic case in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Liaoning Province reported 50 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 10 domestic confirmed & 78 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 28 active domestic confirmed & 1,017 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Heilongjiang Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 26 domestic confirmed & 19 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 61 active domestic confirmed & 59 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jilin Province reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 57 domestic confirmed & 85 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. As the province does not consistently break down recoveries by confirmed & asymptomatic cases or by jurisdictions, I can no longer track the count of active case counts in the different jurisdictions.
Beijing Municipality reported 33 new domestic confirmed (5 previously asymptomatic, 28 mild & 5 moderate) & 16 new domestic asymptomatic cases. Of the 39 domestic positive cases reported between 3 PM on 5/7 & 3 PM on 5/8, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine or residents under movement control. As the city does not break down recoveries by imported vs. domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there. 21 sites are currently at High Risk. 33 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 322 new domestic confirmed (230 previously asymptomatic) & 3,625 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 3,708 of the new domestic positive cases were already under quarantine & 9 via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure. There were 13 deaths (avg. 78.9 y.o., youngest at 49 y.o. & oldest at 92 y.o., all w/ a range of underlying conditions, 1 vaccinated). 645 domestic confirmed & 8,069 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 6,631 active domestic confirmed (415 serious & 80 critical) & 60,380 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 13 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Hubei Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 8 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed (both mild, both at Wuhan) & 25 active domestic asymptomatic (9 at Wuhan, 10 at Ezhou, 2 each at Huanggang & Xiangyang, & 1 each at Enshi Prefecture & Xianning) cases in the province.
Jiangsu Province reported 62 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 2 domestic confirmed & 25 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The currently are 14 active domestic confirmed & 422 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in each administrative division, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Anhui Province 1 domestic confirmed & 16 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 5 active confirmed & 75 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Zhejiang Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 16 new domestic asymptomatic cases. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported versus domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
At Fujian Province 4 domestic confirmed & 8 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 9 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Ürumqi in Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region 7 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 13 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
At Guizhou Province 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Qiandongnan Prefecture) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic (both at Tongren) cases remaining.
Jiangxi Province reported 10 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 23 domestic confirmed & 66 asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 65 active domestic confirmed & 448 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Henan Province reported 14 new domestic confirmed & 46 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 6 domestic confirmed & 27 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 132 active domestic confirmed & 348 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Sichuan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported vs. domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
Chongqing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. 2 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the city.
Qinghai Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 18 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Xining, 18 are persons under centralized quarantine or residents under movement control, & 2 via community screening. 2 domestic confirmed & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 14 active domestic confirmed & 22 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Yunnan Province 16 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 40 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 5/8, Mainland China reported 14 new imported confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic), 59 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 849 confirmed cases recovered (16 imported), 8,628 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (88 imported) & 238 were reclassified as confirmed cases (2 imported), & 44,136 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 8,736 active confirmed cases in the country (158 imported), 529 in serious/critical condition (all domestic), 92,564 active asymptomatic cases (474 imported), 1 suspect case (imported). 401,851 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 5/8, 3,353.022M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 969K doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 5/9 Hong Kong reported 233 new positive cases, 33 imported & 200 domestic (87 via RT-PCR & 113 from rapid antigen tests), 1 death (unvaccinated).
On 5/9, Taiwan reported 40,304 new positive cases, 41 imported & 40,263 domestic. There were 12 new deaths (ages ranging from 50+ to 90+, actual dates of death between 5/5 & 5/7, 11 having a range of underlying conditions, 9 partially/fully vaccinated).
MagdaInBlack
Zombies are a new twist I hadn’t expected.
sab
@MagdaInBlack: So unlike my step-kids, you did not watch the eleven+ seasons of “Walking Dead”?
Dorothy A. Winsor
@MagdaInBlack: That guy is completely nuts. And he was in a position of power–several of them, actually
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 2,153 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 4,458,889 cases. It also reported four deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 35,583 deaths – 0.80% of the cumulative reported total, 0.80% of resolved cases.
There were 22,556 active cases yesterday, 720 fewer than the day before. 1,075 are in hospital. 88 confirmed cases are in ICU; of these patients, 59 confirmed cases cases are on ventilators. Meanwhile, 2,869 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,400,750 patients recovered – 98.7% of the cumulative reported total.
2,151 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. Two new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 26,584 doses of vaccine on 8th May: 7,266 first doses, 17,896 second doses, and 1,422 booster doses. The cumulative total is 70,416,939 doses administered: 27,792,242 first doses, 26,795,008 second doses, and 16,043,079 booster doses. 85.1% of the population have received their first dose, 82.0% their second dose, and 49.1% their booster dose.
New Deal democrat
Nationwide, cases are up 20% from one week ago to 71,700, a slight decrease from 25% one week prior. In bellwether NY, cases are up over 33% for the week. But 5 of 7 upstate regions are flat. A 6th is only up 3% for the week. NY’s rise is driven by the NYC area and Albany. In NJ, cases are up over 20% from one week ago. Otherwise, most States did not report over the weekend.
Hospital admissions rose to 18,260, an increase of over 20% from one week earlier. Deaths are flat at 607.
MagdaInBlack
@sab: No, but apparently these guys did. Jeezus H.
Dorothy I collect these. My favorite so far has been that the vaccine contains snake dna that unleashes Satan.
YY_Sima Qian
Correction for my post, Shanghai reported 11 new deaths on 5/8.
mrmoshpotato
@MagdaInBlack:
Fixed. :)
PsiFighter37
2 positives on a rapid test last night, taking a PCR shortly to confirm. No bueno.
Elizabelle
@PsiFighter37: All the best to you. Hope you get the version that is no worse than a bad head and throat cold, with some fatigue.
If it’s BA2 whatever, that was not so bad. At all. Mostly inconvenient.
lowtechcyclist
It’s the time of the season…
lowtechcyclist
Remember all that “Covid doesn’t affect kids, we don’t need to do anything to protect them” talk?
And now we have an estimated half a million American kids with long Covid.
lowtechcyclist
The ‘unleashes Satan’ part makes me think of Satan in South Park: Bigger Longer & Uncut, singing about how he wants to live ‘up there’ rather than down in the pits of Hell.
YY_Sima Qian
The domestic disaffection toward China’s “Dynamic Zero COVID” policy, strongest in Shanghai but also has spread to other parts of the country, is the result of policy incoherence & repeated whiplash in Shanghai over the past 6 weeks. The original sin was Shanghai following a different strategy (relatively more targeted & less disruptive) as the rest of the country, in pursuit of ostensibly the same policy goals (“Dynamic Zero COVID”). Shanghai has been experimenting w/ ever more targeted measures (I have to assume w/ Beijing’s acquiescence) while the variants are ever more transmissive (meaning containment measures have to be tougher). The cross over point was finally reached w/ the arrival of Omicron BA.2, which overwhelmed the measures that Shanghai was employing. China could not allow the outbreak in Shanghai to continue unabated, because the rest of the country has been scrambling to snuff out clusters & outbreaks spread from Shanghai (& Jilin Province) using aggressive measures that are socially & economically disruptive. It was either get Shanghai back to “zero” or give up “Dynamic Zero COVID” in the rest of the country. China low vaccination uptake among the > 80 y.o. cohort meant the latter was not yet tenable.
There there has been a series of unforgivable policy reversals from the Shanghai authorities, caught between the desires of minimizing socio-economic disruption, yielding to popular discontent, & directives from Beijing that have the rest of the country in mind:
Any government will start to lose the populus on any policy if changes in direction appear to be capricious & poorly communicated. All of that has happened in Shanghai, w/ the inevitable result of significant erosion of support for the “Dynamic Zero COVID” policy, & emergence of disobedience toward measures that aim to implement the policy (such as violating movement restrictions & refusing to participate in mass screenings). Compliance is the ultimate foundation to any government strategy, even in a hard authoritarian state like China.
I absolutely emphasize & sympathize w/ the sentiments in Shanghai, the anger & anxiety, but I am also frustrated by the acts of disobedience & non-compliance. As of right now only ~ 2% of Shanghai’s population have been recorded as positive cases (& there is likely to be a huge number hidden cases due to the repeated mass screenings). Reopening before cryptic transmission has been cut would only bring the city back to square one w/in a few weeks. I can actually understand the rationale behind some of the recent policy shifts, but it is difficult to be highly confident, given how opaque the municipal authorities has been w/ case information (particularly those from the community). Nevertheless, all of this is the responsibility of the CCP regime. It’s über-paternalism has driven it to monopolized power, which means it is accountable for results. (Same applies to vaccination of the very elderly.)
YY_Sima Qian
@PsiFighter37: Wish the best for you!
Wanderer
@PsiFighter37: Wishing you a speedy return to health.
kalakal
@PsiFighter37: Wishing you a speedy recovery
la caterina
@PsiFighter37: I hope your symptoms are mild and you recover quickly!
Betty
@New Deal democrat: Based on family reporting, cases are up in Pennsylvania among vaccinated people.
sab
@Betty: Irk. My 70 yo sister got Covid. The initial bout was like a cold. Only worry now is long Covid. Her very conscientous doctor is discovering all sorts of old medical issues she never knew about. But she had!a employer health insurance, I often didn’t, so I knew about them decades before because pre-existing conditions,
MisterForkbeard
@sab: My entire family has come down with bad colds over the last week, and we were all worried it was covid. Super glad it hasn’t been.
2 years in and it’s still nerve-wracking. I hope everyone else is doing okay :(
patrick II
@MagdaInBlack:
How else can you explain liberal’s rabid dislike for Trump? They have been Zombified by Hillary’s email Server via satellite from an underground bunker in Ukraine that Putin is trying to free.
MagdaInBlack
@patrick II: See? it’s just all so simple !
MagdaInBlack
@lowtechcyclist: ;-)
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian: Late to the thread, but the contrast of the mess in Shanghai with relatively good outcomes in most of the rest of the country would seem to support the central government’s tougher policy. Aren’t most Chinese seeing it that way?
That said, it’s possible COVID will get even more transmissible, plus Taiwan giving up on Zero COVID is going to add a permanent stress on the mainland system.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@patrick II: you forgot the Jewish space lasers
patrick II
@MagdaInBlack:
A dead post postscript. Asserting shots make people zombies, in the context of Q and ultra-Trump believers, is a clever bit. It helps to explain to the Q/Ts why liberals are so unreasonable — why liberals are so easily brainwashed and think Biden won the election in spite of the evidence, why socialized medicine is a good thing, and their need to abort babies (the zombie virus doesn’t transfer to the fetus). Liberals can’t be reasoned with because they have been zombified.
Liberal zombies is the only thing that makes sense.
YY_Sima Qian
@Fair Economist: If most human beings are rational most of the time on most issues, they would. However, they are not, & governments (no matter the form) need to account for that. Credibility & governing mandate of those in power is a fragile thing, the mess & the seemingly random direction changes has really done a lot of damage in the city. The response workers are also exhausted & beyond the breaking point, immense pressure from the above to enforce the tough restricts in face of often bewildered/frustrated/angry public meant that some have become impatient & even brutish in their behavior, which result in the “shocking” videos that might make the rounds on YouTube & Twitter.
Support for “Dynamic Zero COVID” is still strong in the rest of the country, especially in light of the apparent success against a very large outbreak in Jilin Province. It is the reason we are still living a normal life here Wuhan, instead of following Shanghai’s footsteps a month later. Even in Shanghai, the vast majority of people are simply looking to the ride out lockdown & hope for its early end, whatever their discontent & however they may vent on Chinese social media. Those agitating for active disobedience is still a tiny minority, but they do get all of the attention overseas.
BellyCat
My six year old tested positive for COVID yesterday. :-(
Central PA. He’s vaccinated, fortunately, and I’m crossing my fingers.