An analysis by Amy Walker at the Cook Political Report is a sample of an emerging Beltway narrative for the upcoming midterms: centrism is out in both parties. Here’s an excerpt:
This strategy for the 2018 midterms was summarized best by then-Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s slogan of “Just win, baby.” Primaries were for picking the candidates who could win these swing CDs, not for intra-party ideological warfare. In 2020, Democrats rallied behind the more centrist Biden simply because they believed he provided Democrats the best chance to beat Trump that fall.
But, with Trump no longer in the White House and Biden’s approval ratings underwater, the electability message is falling flat in Democratic primaries. In 2018, Democratic candidates prevailed in GOP-leaning CDs by leaning into a message of bipartisanship. Today, however, a restive Democratic base, discouraged by a lack of action on many of their key issues (like climate and student loan debt), and frustrated by GOP attacks on issues like abortion and election integrity, want fighters, not unifiers as their candidates.
Walker’s piece addresses Conor Lamb’s struggles against John Fetterman. So did an even more Lamb-focused piece that reached a similar conclusion (centrists are so over!) by Trip Gabriel in yesterday’s Times. There’s even speculation that Joe Manchin discredited centrism within the party.
I don’t know, but it seems to me this narrative downplays a significant factor, i.e., that Republicans have gone absolutely bug-fuck crazy and turned on democracy itself. So yeah, we want fighters, but I don’t think it’s necessarily an ideological thing. It’s more a question of style. What do you think?
Open thread!
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Snarki, child of Loki
I’d like to see Fetterman beat the shit out of Cruz on the floor of the Senate.
Most of the GOP caucus would too.
BIPARTISANISM, BABY!
guachi
I think Manchin has discredited centrism.
He (and Collins, for example) make centrism out to be wishy-washy and standing for nothing.
New Deal democrat
Via Josh Marshall, “ According to a new Monmouth Poll, abortion (25%) is now tied with the economy (26%) as the most important issue in the midterms.”
And further, like me, he thinks there may be thermonuclear blowback on the issue.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/numbers-talk-bull-walks
Not completely coincidentally:
“Republicans are falling over each other to tell us as clearly as they can that the reversal of Roe is a massive electoral liability. You have longtime “pro-life” diehards running towards TV cameras insisting the whole thing is totally no big deal. In fact, you’ll barely notice anything happened. . . .
“. . . . Democrats really, really, really need to make this as concrete as possible — in electoral and policy terms — as quickly as possible.
“. . . the challenge of expanding the Senate majority is immense but the strategy is straightforward. Find out the number of current votes for the Roe bill and the filibuster. Is it 49? 48? 47? That tells you how many pick ups you need. And then you run on that number and that commitment.
“ A concrete number is clear and it makes the stakes clear in every race in the country. Give us the House and two more Senate seats and we will pass the Roe bill in January 2023. Not a test vote. Not a symbolic vote. We’ll actually pass the bill in the first week. The President will sign it right away.”
Mind you, I think the Reactionary 5 on the Supreme Court would strike down any such law without a moment’s hesitation. But so what? Their striking down the law would seal their own fates, as a overwhelming majority of the public would *demand* that Congress immediately take action to expand the Court and put them in the minority.
kindness
The MSM wants to keep it’s ‘impartiality’ meme alive by beating the Both Sides horse some more. And if that doesn’t work, they’ll beat that poor horse all over again.
brendancalling
I voted for Fetterman.
Lamb is an ass.
trollhattan
@guachi: IMO their “centrism” is not that at all, but something they pay lip service to while being rather radical in their beliefs and actions.
Betty Cracker
@guachi: Politicians who define themselves in opposition to the caucus are self-discrediting, IMO. But Manchin and Sinema’s antics don’t discredit, say, Amy Klobuchar or John Tester, IMO.
trollhattan
Something good happened.
Victor Matheson
@brendancalling: I will take Lamb any day of the week in a conservative congressional district that a more liberal Dem would have real trouble winning.
But in a statewide race where a guy like Fetterman is completely electable, I agree with your general thought.
Jackie
What does the 17th Congressional District race look like in Pennsylvania? Will Democrats be able to keep Lamb’s seat? Both Democrats running sound good; the Republicans running seem to be avoiding the name Trump. Has he endorsed any of those candidates?
CaseyL
If the “centrists” were actually centrists – that is, if they discussed policy with one another and came up with something workable; if they had any actual positions or governing philosophy – their currency might still be valuable. But they are not. They’re intellectually sparse nimrods who arbitrarily “split the difference.” Or worse, in the case of Manchin/Collins/Sinema, refuse to specify what they actually want. They have no purpose other than to sabotage legislation and rake in donor bucks.
I’m not sure which is worse: committed ideologues who refuse to compromise and sabotage legislation that way, or the Muddled Middles who only state what they don’t want, which just happens to be anything and everything on offer, and sabotage it that way.
If we get a bumper crop of new Democrats (please, FSM, please) it will be interesting to see how this works out.
germy
the MSM is calling this a “clash” between riot police and mourners. So I’m not surprised when the MSM provides cover for Republican politicians
germy
I thought they’re just politicians who take contributions from some of the same donors donating to Republicans we dislike.
And so we get centrists protecting the pharmaceutical industry or the coal industry, etc. as if it’s their philosophy. Rather than a quid pro quo
NotMax
There are inherent problems in the MSM’s propensity for painting the landscape as seen only through the Overton window.
//
Old Man Shadow
The Democrat who says that will always get my vote.
Without bodily autonomy there is no foundation for human rights.
guachi
@Betty Cracker: My thought of actual effective centrists were of the same two you mentioned – Tester and Klobuchar.
It’s just that the celebrity centrists are Manchin and Collins and Sinema. They do a disservice to centrism.
Cacti
Races can often be determined by what political scientists call a “black swan event”. That is, something that nobody saw coming, but that fundamentally changes things.
Covid was the black swan event of 2020.
The SCOTUS case leak is this campaign’s black swan. The Dems need to lean hard into the issue of R’s as the anti-choice party and milk it for everything it’s worth. This is not a kumbaya moment. One party wants to protect a woman’s right to choose, one doesn’t. Offer a clear choice and tell the American people to choose a side.
germy
A fascinating theory:
Betty Cracker
@guachi: Maybe it’s a semantics thing, but I consider Tester, Klobuchar, etc., to be moderates rather than centrists.
The Moar You Know
There must be a commandment chiseled in stone over the doorway of every mainstream media outlet in America. Not one is willing to acknowledge this, the obvious. They’ve lost their fucking minds, as a group.
UncleEbeneezer
I really wish these articles and interviewers would ask these voters what “fight” means? Like, be specific. Dems are trying to pass abortion and Trans healthcare protection laws in Blue States, tried to pass Federal legislation (failed due to Manchin), screaming bloody murder about Roe on Twitter and at rallies, issuing subpoenas to their fellow House members, calling for expanding the Supreme Court, calling for investigations into Ginni and impeachment of Clarence Thomas, calling for investigations into Kavanaugh etc. I’m almost 50 and I have NEVER seen so much “fight” in Dems in all my years paying attention to politics.
Hildebrand
@guachi: This is where I like Dan Pfeiffer’s distinction between ‘centrists’ and ‘moderates’.
“Moderation is an ideology, centrism is an identity. For example, a moderate may support strengthening the Affordable Care Act instead of Medicare for All or increasing corporate taxes instead of a wealth tax. Centrists pick a position two steps closer to the center no matter what and tend to go out of their way to poke a stick in the eye of party leaders to prove a point. For moderates, policy is the point. For centrists, it’s all about the performance. Amy Klobuchar is a moderate. Kyrsten Sinema is a centrist.”
Lacuna Synecdoche
Betty Cracker @ Top:
I don’t think it’s a matter of ideology or style. I think we want fighters because it’s a matter of survival.
Baud
Is the only example Lamb and Fetterman? I thought Fetterman polled pretty well in the general election.
Cacti
@The Moar You Know: It beggars belief that they’ve essentially hand waved away the fact that the R party sent a violent mob to try and overthrow the last Presidential election.
MattF
I think the bugfuckery is important. It’s gotten to the point that there’s just no telling what the crazy will be about next. Certainly not politics or policy. Greg Sargent has some commentary on that.
germy
Paul in KY
@CaseyL: I hate the Muddlers more.
Baud
@germy:
First I heard of it.
Cacti
@germy: But if you peacefully protest outside Sam Alito’s home, that gets you a formal tut-tutting from the WaPo editorial staff.
Baud
@UncleEbeneezer:
“Dems don’t fight” is an ideology, not an observation.
JCJ
@Old Man Shadow:
Jean-Luc Picard for President!
UncleEbeneezer
@Baud: Also, he has charisma. I don’t know about Lamb but when I’ve heard Fetterman interviewed, I get why he would appeal to a lot of voters. I’m guessing this is more about personality than positions on issues.
Kelly
@germy: I was 11 when Israel won the Six Day War. Saw Israel as a simple, heroic David v Goliath. At university I took a Mid East Poly sci class. Met my first actual Muslims. Learned some grey areas existed. I can’t remember if it was there or later that read an essay by an Israeli about how Israel could not be an occupying power without slipping into authoritarianism and cruelty. There is no other way to control a subjected population.
germy
@Baud:
You would have heard about it if it had been left on the porch of a Republican politician. It would have been the top story for weeks instead of just a little oddity reported and then forgotten
https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-nancy-pelosis-house-vandalized-with-pigs-head-2021-1
Baud
@UncleEbeneezer:
It often is. But it also seems like a bad example to describe the ideology vs. electability conundrum.
Baud
@germy:
Obviously, not as bad as chalk-gate.
germy
@Kelly:
They’re ripping Palestinian flags off of the funeral procession, along with beating pallbearers.
So, keeping score: Two American journalists have been murdered by two different Middle Eastern allies of the U.S.
germy
@Baud:
Collins: “Police, please hurry before it rains!”
syphonblue
I want Democrats to stop trying to have comity with Republicans. I want more people like AOC who are willing to go to bat and hit Republicans back constantly with ferocity and not worrying about not being able to go out for a beer later after the day’s done. I don’t want to see any pictures of Dems giving McConnell a hug or any bullshit like that, and I want them out on TV hitting Republicans for their hypocrisy constantly. Fuck bipartisanship, nobody cares about, and it’s only ever an “issue” when Democrats are in power. Suddenly, the Republicans – who have no problem pushing through a Supreme Court nominee in 3 weeks, in the middle of an election that is currently on-going – are screaming about how everything needs to be bipartisan. FOH.
A lot of Dem messaging is bad, and they need to get someone like Frank Luntz on their side, who is able to come with better, more succint, mass-friendly wording.
A lot of issues with the Dems have to do with the media, however, and how they always give a pass to Repubs and then rake Dems over the coals for similar shit. The media needs to do a better job of explaining just what Republicans do. For instance, a recent poll out of CNN showed that 46% of people feel Republicans ‘ positions on the economy is more aligned with their own, versus 31% who feel that way of Democrats. That’s….fucking crazy pants! But a lot of that has to do with media framing. There’s not a lot the Dems can do there, unfortunately other than making sure they’re on TV and talking as loudly as possible all the time about how that’s horseshit.
Suzanne
@brendancalling: I was leaning toward voting for Kenyatta, but I decided that I am a single-issue voter this cycle, and that, for me, is abortion rights. Fetterman has made his support very clear. Haven’t seen anything from Kenyatta yet. So TBD.
Lamb sucks. If he’s good for his bougie-ass district in Mt. Lebanon, then he should stay in the House, but I am so sick of this weaksauce.
I now live in the capital of working-class-white-Catholic-ville, and Kenyatta doesn’t seem like he would appeal to those people as much as Fetterman might, but we’ll see.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Cacti: Not really Black Swans, since 2018 the theme every election is the GOP refusing to govern when they are in power.
2018, GOP congress couldn’t compromise among themselves to get a budget passed
2020 President Trump refused to do shit about a pandemic, something GW Bush and Obama handled well.
2022 The conservatives in SCOTUS are having a school yard fight over who is more popular
Even that pathetic Jan 6 Coup Attempt was like that, there was no thought what would happen Jan 7. Just scream at each other, break things.
Omnes Omnibus
There is always the caveat that every race is its own thing. I strongly support WI’s governor for re-election and he is about as moderate as they come. At the same time, I am finding myself being drawn to Mandela Barnes as the Democratic candidate to beat Ron Johnson. Evers represents positive continuity in a place where WI needs it, and Barnes would represent positive and very progressive change in the Senate.
Llelldorin
I think a big factor has to be the media’s tendency to treat the most milquetoast member of the center-left as though they’re wearing bandoliers of grenades and hunting the streets for Archduke Franz Ferdinand. If they’re going to treat everyone like that, what’s the point to nominating moderates?
germy
If a tree falls in the forest but no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?
If a Democratic politician gives a dynamic speech calling out the lies of Republicans but the media doesn’t cover it….
Most of the fighting I see from Democrats, I see on blogs like this. Some really impressive fighting. But how many people read blogs like this?
Eolirin
@CaseyL: There are plenty of moderate and right leaning dems that are roughly in the middle of the Democratic electorate or slightly to the right of it, that aren’t Manchin like obstructionists, that have values and objectives but are more willing to flex them in both directions as need be, and they used to be what we could consider centrists.
In a functioning two party system you need people occupying that space because they hold the middle between the disparate factions and help negotiate compromise while maintaining a level of credibility with the other factions.
But when that label would have made sense the Republicans had something resembling reasonable values, the parties weren’t so far apart from each other and compromise was legitimately possible. Being center or center-right of the Democratic party more or less meant being in the middle of the electorate.
That no longer is the case. Someone like Biden who is pretty much in the middle of the Democratic electorate holds positions far to the left of Republican base voters. It’s why we keep seeing dumb takes presenting him as a traitor to progressive values and other dumb takes presenting him as a radical leftist, when he’s neither and is just a guy who sits squarely in the center of Democratic opinion and consequently is really good at bringing the factions together.
Biden has helped unify the caucus to an extreme degree because he’s a real centrist in the context of the party and that’s what they do. The democratic party, minus Sinema and Manchin, is currently a microcosm of what happens when you have good leadership and good faith efforts to work together. No one is entirely happy but (almost) everyone can live with the outcome on most issues. The media doesn’t know what to do with it. So we get a parade of stories amplifying minor disputes or trying to conflate the values of the whole party with the intransigence of two people.
This is what would happen on a bipartisan level if the Republican party wasn’t run by a death cult and weren’t wedded to a rule or ruin mentality. There’s no middle to hold between Italian and tire rims and anthrax. So the term as applied between the parties needs to be retired. But that’d mean recognizing that the Republican party has gone insane and the media is not about to do that.
It’s still a valuable place to have people hold in a functioning system though.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: My own political taxonomy defines “Centrism” more as a political strategy of trying to get votes out of the political middle. I think of “Progressive” as a strategy of pushing the envelope of policy and electoral strategy to the left.
When it comes to Democratic politicians, I usually call them “moderates” or “liberals.” But most are on a continuum; if you compared the leftmost 30 members of the “moderate” New Democrat Caucus to the 30 rightmost members of the “liberal” Progressive Caucus, I think you’d find that the biggest difference in these Representatives is in their branding. The makeup of their individual districts probably plays a role here.
Kelly
@germy: I should add the essay writer was against the occupation. He feared it would poison Israel’s democracy. Seems to it has.
tinare
@UncleEbeneezer: Yep. Fetterman comes across as real and not like a politician which appeals to the “tucky” part of PA in a way Lamb can’t despite being more conservative. It is all about personality, but that’s a lot of what works with low info voters. And Fetterman has been crisscrossing the state since he first unsuccessfully ran for senate in 2016 holding small meet and greets and doing legwork.
Old School
@Baud:
The other example in the piece is Rep. Kurt Schrader.
Baud
@Old School:
Schrader sounds like a piece of work, but that’s a good example where I’d be worried about losing the district. I don’t think the PA example fits.
narya
I want a two-pronged approach. I love things like Hakeem Jeffries’ speech the other day–LOVE it. Raskin, Schiff, Whitehouse, Porter, Pelosi (on many things), have all been great. But I also recognize that politics ARE local, and Reps, especially, have to speak to their voters. Would I rather see Dem governors/senators be firebrands all the time? Or would I rather see us have more Dem governors/senators? I am not voting in PA, so, while I may prefer this or that candidate, I am not the audience.
Baud
@Llelldorin:
You nominate moderates either because you are a voter who is moderate or you think the moderate has the best chance of winning (or both)? It’s the same reason you would nominate liberals.
StringOnAStick
Oregon’s redistricting for the House changed district boundaries significantly. We had been represented by hard R Bentz, but now we are in Blue Dog Schrader district, or at least he thinks it is his district; only 45% of the old district is in the new one. Schrader voted against negotiating for Medicare drug prices and is basically a Manchin/Sinema “D” but is supported by the national party because he is the incumbent and is flooding the airwaves here with PAC money from the drug industry, etc. His primary competitor Jaime McLeod-Skinner is looking strong though, and the state D party is pissed that the national party supported Schrader. I’ve seen zero Schrader signs here in Bend and more that a few of McLeod-Skinner, and she ran well here the last time she ran for a seat. The new district leans D and Cook Political Report has put her in the lead.
Translation, TL:DR: The more liberal candidate is apparently beating the known “centrist” incumbent.
germy
@Kelly:
Baud
@StringOnAStick:
That makes me feel better wrt my comment at #51.
tinare
My overall hope is that the best candidate to win in each district is nominated. Whether they are left, right or center as long as there are more Dems in the house and senate, more will be able to be done.
Omnes Omnibus
@tinare: It’s funny, but the Fetterman style of politician grates on me. That is always my first reaction. Other’s mileage clearly varies. I don’t live in PA and don’t know enough about the candidates to have a preference. I just hope that the PA voters pick a winner. Nothing else really matters.
Baud
@tinare:
?
Cacti
@Baud: Another big reason Schrader is in trouble is that he helped torpedo a prescription drug pricing bill while raking in big bucks from Pharma.
One of his primary opponent’s biggest pitches has been “send me and I’ll vote for that bill”. And that’s an issue that has broad support among voters.
debbie
@Kelly:
I was in ninth grade Confirmation class (also during the Six Day War) when I realized the rabbi and other adults were lying to us about Israel. They showed us a film smuggled in from Russia about what was found when the camps were liberated. I’d already heard more than enough from others to realize only one side was being presented and was likely embellished to enhance the drama and their victimhood.
During the Yom Kippur War (1974), I was almost punched out by a guy who knocked on my door asking for donations for humanitarian assistance for Israeli children. It was already known throughout Boston that this group was a front and was actually using the funds to purchase guns. I called him out, he called me anti-Semitic, I called him an even worse word, and slammed the door in his face.
So, sixty years later, Israel is STILL up to the same garbage! Not one fucking thing has changed (Bennett’s allowing new settlements even now). No attempts to moderate, explain, redefine, nothing. Evil, nothing less.
Suzanne
@Hildebrand: That’s a really great, cogent description. “Centrists” want to be in the middle because they want to be edgelords. Neither party is smart enough, looking for bullshit “complexity” where it does not exist. They don’t sincerely believe in anything other than their own brilliance and uniqueness. IDGAF about these people.
Paul Begala apparently said recently, “Somehow, in my lifetime, the Democrats have gone from being the party of the factory floor to the party of the faculty lounge.” Fuck this guy. You only want to represent uneducated white dudes (and yes, on the factory floor, it’s mostly dudes)? Is there something wrong with representing teachers and people who went to school?! Do you not want our votes and our meager contributions? I’m so fucking done.
Kelly
@StringOnAStick: Latest flyers from Schrader include endorsements from pragmatic veterans Biden and Pelosi. Schrader’s part in the bozo challenge to Pelosi as Speaker was kinda my last straw. Hard to believe a guy that inherited $7 million from his pharma exec Grandfather will rein in drug prices.
Cameron
@Betty Cracker: Not strictly semantics. I think ‘centrist’ is what is meant in that Texas expression that there’s nothing in the middle of the road but yellow stripes and dead armadillos.
brendancalling
@Victor Matheson: Let me clarify. I lived in PA for 16 years. Lamb is a known quantity to me.
I mean, yeah if it was Conor or a Republican, I’d hold my nose, pretend to be excited about him, and cast a vote. But he’s a weenbag. A mush.
zhena gogolia
@Omnes Omnibus: Alan Grayson. Anthony Weiner. Sorry, nope.
Martin
@zhena gogolia: I don’t really see Fetterman in that category. Grayson and Weiner always seemed to be more focused on attention grabbing. Fetterman seems to have more of a no fucks left to give vibe about him.
trollhattan
What Lola wants, Lola gets. Remember Ryan Zinke, Trump’s Interior Secretary for about twelve days? He’s married. And she wants her precious. Nothing says “Montana” like living in Santa Barbara.
debbie
@germy:
This is such a classic case of the oppressed becoming the oppressor, I can’t stand it.
Geminid
@Old School: I think Schrader is an outlier. Joe Manchin definitely is, a dinosaur who could be the last Democrat to hold a West Virginia Senate seat this century.
Virginia 7th CD Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger is a member of the Blue Dog kennel. When the new 7th District map was announced, the guys over at Democratic website Blue Virginia speculated that she would be challenged by other good state and local office holders who were more liberal. But she ended up with a clear path to the nomination. I think if you told a typical 7th District Democrat, “Well, you know Spanburger’s a Blue Dog, don’t you?” they’d reply, “What’s a Blue Dog? And why should I care?”
Paul in KY
@debbie: I’ve seen ‘The Russian Film’ too and it was horrific. Those Nazi atrocities don’t give Israel carte blanche to brutally subjugate the Palestinians, IMO.
trollhattan
Hilarious to learn they took notes from Boston-area IRA supporters. Wonder if they cooperated to get bulk discounts on guns and ammo?
Omnes Omnibus
@zhena gogolia: Cole’s fear of a Chris Christie candidacy a few years ago. But then I actually responded to John Kerry’s style.
germy
@Kelly:
Yes, when it comes to centrists it’s always interesting to follow the money. Who donates to their campaign? Who is influencing their decisions?
I’m at a point in my life though where I want every Republican voted out of office. This means I sometimes have to accept what they call “conservadems”.
Kay
I think it’s a bad article. It uses an ideological lens on what are really differences in temperament and approach. Fetterman’s pitch is he can appeal to the Democratic base while narrowing margins in rural redder counties. He’s going to do that not by being “more progessive” or “more moderate” but by going to those places and talking to them. It’s very pragmatic! But it’s not ideological.
I think pundits are addicted to “THIS is like THIS, fighters Left, fighters Right” and they just jam everything in there.
Paul in KY
@Suzanne: There are alot more individuals in the ‘factory floor’ cohort than in the ‘faculty lounge’ cohort. The Republican shivving of unions has contributed to that perception that Mr. Begala voiced.
I don’t like racist, sexist SOBs, but I will take the vote of any that care to vote Democratic. Won’t change our beliefs a whit to cater to them, but if any want to vote for us, then I’m fine with that.
Kay
And it’s REALLY ideological on the Right, they’re not just competing on who is a “fighter” they’re competing for the furthest Right positions, so it’s just a completely bad comparison :)
debbie
@Paul in KY:
No, not at all. But it seems to have provided them with the methods to get to their desired goals. //
Omnes Omnibus
@Kay: That speaks to one of the things that appeals to me about Mandela Barnes. He probably will not win in WI’s rural counties, but he has visited every county. He has bowled in Wausau and visited farms to talk about the challenges facing the dairy industry. If he can narrow his margin in those counties, it helps. He is doing the work.
germy
@Kay:
Something I notice in my local town politics: Democrats go door to door. They want to talk. Republicans just mail flyers.
And some of those Republican flyers are really outrageous. Calling their opponents socialists, etc.
narya
@Suzanne: Well, and, that Begala “analysis” completely elides working class WOMEN, and completely elides the young folks who are, for example, organizing Sbux and Amazonia.
Paul in KY
@debbie: This applies to ‘Likud Israel’, but they survived the Nazi horrors only to be on the road to using many of their policies against the Palestinians.
I will say that I have a hard time thinking that any Israeli government would ever sanction outright extirmination camps or starvation camps.
gvg
@New Deal democrat: Apparently we need 60 or else we also need 51 democrats who will end the fillibuster.
I want infrastructure and several other things too. May as well get all the good stuff done.
Has anybody polled congress for reactivating the ERA amendment and how many more states we need to enact it? I think its overdue. The whole Roe issue makes me aware of all of my rights to equality being threatened. After all, I don’t have a uterus anymore, but this is threatening my autonomy.
I am just furious at these bigots (including some women) who think I am not just as much of a person and citizen as anyone else. I am not feeling nice right now. Maybe that is why we want fighters. We are angry. Trump made me mad too but this is nuclear fury.
Baud
@narya: Also, working class minority men.
Baud
@gvg: The hope is that we get 52, of which 50 will end the filibuster.
Ocotillo
Primary runoffs in Texas are 5/24. I kind of have a feeling that Jessica Cisneros is going to beat Henry Cuellar. I confess I am not familiar enough with the district to know if that helps the GOP since they have been making inroads with Hispanic border Texans.
lowtechcyclist
It’s not so much ideology or style: it’s blinders on or off? Our party can’t fight this fight if they refuse to see that that’s the fight we’re in. They have indeed turned on democracy itself, and taking away women’s bodily autonomy is just the big obvious thing right now.
The scary thing is, just how many big things there are. There’s the insurrection/coup of January 6th. There’s the ongoing drive to see that black people have the devil of a time voting, and to overrule their votes if they succeed in large enough numbers to make a difference. There’s their taking the side of Covid-19 in the battle between America and Covid, resulting in hundreds of thousands of avoidable deaths. And of course, they have been, are doing, and will do their damnedest to make sure we fail to act to rein in climate change while that’s still possible.
I really couldn’t have imagined a world where we’d be at the crisis point in so many ways at once. (And that’s without mentioning Russia, even.) But it’s all really the same fight: we’re on the right side, and they’re on the wrong side, of every one of these issues of enormous consequence. They’re trying to tear down our democracy, and sticking it to women who have the nerve to think they ought to have agency over their own lives and bodies is the first fruit of this poisonous harvest.
It’s all one thing, and we have to find a way to get this across to the voting public.
germy
I want Marco Rubio OUT.
Kay
@Omnes Omnibus:
I think it’s a big part of how Sherrod Brown survives. He doesn’t pretend to be a hunter or a farmer – he just goes to rural areas and is himself, pro choice, an environmentalist, a liberal. No one has to BECOME them. It’s not about JD Vance type shape shifting – “I’ll be THIS in the suburbs and THIS in rural counties” and no one has to throw anyone under the bus.
Betty
@guachi: Tester and Klobuchar are open to revising their positions and understand the need to support a Democratic President. The two Senators and a group of “centrists” in the House appear to be primarily donor-driven.
debbie
@Paul in KY:
Maybe not yet, but they didn’t spring up the first day Hitler had his hateful thoughts. Presently, I would equate the West Bank or Gaza with the Warsaw Ghetto.
geg6
@brendancalling:
Same. Lamb pissed me off with his sickening super pac ads. And just the fact that he even ran. What would have been his new district is much more Dem and he could have stayed in the House for many terms. But he had to blow it by getting bigger than his britches and then trying to trash the guy who, as anyone who knows the state could have told you, was going to win anyway. Cardinal sin on Lamb’s part, IMHO.
taumaturgo
@Victor Matheson: Following your logic, it will have the effect of flooding Congress with Manchin and Sinema clones. Would you call that progress?
New Deal democrat
@gvg: “we need 60 or else we also need 51 democrats who will end the filibuster.”
Agree. I think a filibuster carve-out was understood as part of the idea (and, btw, the same thing with regard to re-authorizing the VRA).
“Has anybody polled congress for reactivating the ERA amendment and how many more states we need to enact it? I think its overdue.”
I haven’t seen any polling, but a quick google search shows a 2020 poll saying 72% of Americans favor it. With Virginia ratifying it several years ago, 3/4 of the States have done so. The thorny part is whether Congress could validly remove the original deadline for ratification, and who gets to make that call (Congress itself or the Supreme Court).
MrSnrub
@brendancalling: I live in PA (Philadelphia suburbs). I know who Lamb is, since he won the special election and all, but I know nothing about his policies or stances whatsoever.
geg6
@Jackie:
The district now leans much more Dem than it did before. Lamb could have stayed in that seat for the rest of his life. Either of the Dems would be great. I voted for DeLuzio, but I’d be fine with Maloy.
narya
@Baud: Yup. I LOVE it that Biden welcomed Smalls–that was great
ETA–and all of those bus drivers, and letter carriers, etc. At least in my city, a ton of those folks are minority men.
JMS
@Kay:
I think that’s right and most of the commentary around this race is lazy. Pa is a genuinely moderate state. It never went for Bernie. It didn’t go for Obama in the 2008 primary. Fetterman being this far ahead means people both like him and think he can win.
Brachiator
This is crazy. Whenever I do one of those political ideology surveys I come out as mainly centrist. This seems more or less correct, but I think I am a good liberal.
I don’t see either climate change or student loan debt as central to the Democratic Party base. Climate change requires strong and innovative international effort and this issue has been eclipsed by the pandemic and subsequent economic disruption. Around the world governments are being rocked because people are being eaten alive by inflation. In the UK people have to choose between eating and heating their homes as energy and food prices rise. And even though they have invested more in alternative energy projects these efforts are expensive and have not yet been as impactful as people had hoped.
The US possibly has not been hit as hard as Europe or less developed nations like Sri Lanka, where they burned down government buildings and forced a prime minister out of office because the government has not done enough to combat inflation. But the problem here is growing and angry voters will come after Democrats.
The problem of student loan debt gets written about a lot, but this is more an upper middle class entitlement than a broad concern of the Democratic Party base. Eliminate it all tomorrow and a lot of people will still have crappy schools, crappy jobs, an uncertain future and will still be hit hard by consumer debt. Previous efforts to reduce poverty will still have been undone.
The Biden Administration has accomplished more than a hostile press have given them credit for. And his agenda is blocked by two rogue Democrats and unified GOP opposition. How do you get around that?
Abortion. Republican state governments have been undermining women’s rights for years. People voted for this in those states. And gerrymandering and voter suppression efforts magnify GOP power. This is hard to overcome on the state and local level.
On the federal level McConnell is responsible for blocking the appointment of sane justices to the Supreme Court. And ironically, some noisy progressives didn’t think that the Court was a big deal.
People are restive and unhappy and want things to get back to pre-pandemic normal. The Democratic Party and the Biden Administration still offers the best hope. Biden has also included many of the ideas of progressives.
The Republicans still offer nothing.
lowtechcyclist
Fuck him, indeed. Which party is pro-union, and which party is anti-union? Which party is for raising the minimum wage, and which party is against it? Which party is for requiring OT pay after 40 hours for more workers, and which party killed it the minute they were in power in 2017? Which party has fought to protect workers from on-the-job hazards, and which party has fought against that?
If that matters less to the guys on the factory floor than keeping blacks and women in their place, then that’s a whole ‘nother story.
We’ll still keep fighting to give them more power as workers vis-a-vis management, but we’re not going to compromise on issues of equality and fairness – for women, for blacks and other minorities, for gay and trans persons, for persons with physical handicaps – to win their votes. We’ve done that too often in the past, and we did that too damn long. We can’t do that any more.
Geminid
@Ocotillo: Tannya Rodriguez, the third candidate in the initial TX 28th CD primary, has endorsed Cisneros. A personal issue that was sensationalized by the Daily Mail and the New York Post right after the first round may hurt Cisneros, though.
Cisneros has her strong adherents and Cuellar has his; the remaining Democrats will probably cast their vote for the candidate they think is most electable. Democratic majorities among Rio Grande Valley Latinos plummeted from 2016 to 2020, and the 28th is no longer a safe seat for the Democratic nominee. Cassie Garcia, a former staffer for Ted Cruz, is thought to be leading in the Republican runoff.
schrodingers_cat
In complete unscientific sampling of my own social media consumption, Balloon Juice demographic loves Vigilante Shrek, while minorities prefer Lamb. There are a large number of undecideds in the polls that I have seen who could move the race in any direction.
cain
@Cacti: The press has gotten used the endless cycle of Republican doing stupid shit and Democrats cleaning up just in time for Republicans to take over again.
They count on it as some kind of consistent thing that is happening. They don’t even seem to think that Democracy is hanging by a thread and that crazy people are taking over.
Once they are embedded it will take generations to get rid of it – and with the current mood, it seems that we’ll be rapidly going back to the 1850s – and in that time they’ll be wondering why the Democratic party hasn’t taken over yet.
Brachiator
Pew ideology quiz.
Oldie but goodie.
Martin
@Baud: I think Dems need to lay out that out clearly for voters after the primaries. Get us X seats in the House and Senate and we have the following people on the record voting for filibuster ending, codifying RvW, etc.
Right now these political goals are too ambiguous. Do we need 50 senators or 55 or 60? If it’s 60, then you’ll get a lot of ‘why bother’ responses from voters because it’s unrealistic. If it’s 52, we can do that. That’s an ‘every vote matters’ number because it’s actionable and the payoff is clearly stated.
cain
@germy: Here’s another tidbit – the journalist is a protestant christian – the Palestinians (a mix of Christians and Muslims I suppose) are taking this to a protestant cemetary while being attacked by Israeli soldiers (who might consist of Muslims and Jews)
You got your entire Abrahamic religion clusterfuck right there.
brendancalling
@Martin: I think my favorite Fetterman “no fucks” incident was when <a href=”https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/556357-pennsylvanias-fetterman-says-republicans-removed-pride-flags-from-office/”>the state GOP tried to get him to take a gay pride flag off of his office window</a> (maybe they even passed a stupid law? I forget) and he just ignored them and put a bigger one right back up, next to the “legalize weed” flag.
I love his message to the GOP. “Go fuck yourselves.”
germy
@cain:
Terrible. We talk about bad political reporters here but there are so many brave journalists risking their lives. I don’t think they get paid as much as the Chuck Todds of the world, though
Martin
@schrodingers_cat: You saw the same thing in 2008, where black liberals were cool on Obama because they wanted a guaranteed Dem win, where white liberals were all ‘let’s go for it!’, knowing that a Dem loss wouldn’t be life altering to them.
I would note that the pro-Obama camp was right because it drove up liberal turnout more than conservative opposition. I would argue the situation now is even starker – if you’re fighting for Democracy, you want fighters on the ballot because your voters are feeling fighty. There really aren’t many democrats left out there that believe compromise is possible, so stop nominating the candidates that promise to do that.
Biden is a bit of an outlier because the threat was so great that Dems would have voted for Mitt Romney to get Trump out of office.
StringOnAStick
@Kelly: I didn’t know about the $7 million inheritance, but the guy comes across on his TV ads as trying too damned hard to lean on the support from PP, Biden and Pelosi; it looks desperate. I just gave some more $ to Jaime McLoed-Skinner.
lowtechcyclist
@Brachiator:
Maybe so, but climate change is still happening whether we’re ready to deal with it or not, and the clock’s ticking.
No, it’s a concern of young people who thought college would be their entree into the upper middle class. The children of the upper middle class will do fine. My son won’t graduate from college with a pile of debt that would be nearly impossible to dig his way out from under, because we are upper middle class. But a lot of kids from lower down the economic scale will be in that position.
That’s what parents do, who can afford to pick up all or most of the tab for their kids’ education, and that’s why it’s NOT an ‘upper middle class entitlement.’
Kent
@lowtechcyclist: Exactly. In fact a LOT of upper class and upper middle class families send their kids to more expensive private colleges and universities which is not what they would be doing if price was the primary driver. They would be sending them to in-state schools. It is the vast middle and lower middle class that have to depend on student loans to even get into college. Not the upper classes.
germy
@lowtechcyclist:
The Moar You Know
@germy: rather like Weimar Germany, in which crimes committed by the right against the left or center were simply not viewed as crimes by the judiciary or media.
Including murder.
Omnes Omnibus
@Brachiator: Establishment liberal. Go figure.
Anyway
Speaking of PA what’s the BJ take on the Rethug race? I did not see that extremist lady Barnette showing up so strong against MoneyBags from CT and (hack) Oz! Where’d she come from? She is going to be huge on Fox should she do well. She’s like a smarter, more self-aware Sarah Palin
Scout211
Speaking of elections, we got our mail-in ballots yesterday and I think I might just vote for this guy.
schrodingers_cat
@Martin: You are insulting Obama by comparing him to Fetterman. It is not the same situation at all. White populists like Penn Shrek and Maple Syrup Messiah will willingly throw minorities under the bus to go after the Joe Rogan demographic. And we know it. So their antics leave us cold.
Subsole
@germy:
Seriously. I wonder what real journalists think when they look at the American press.
“Seriously?? I’m over here getting shot, doxxed, arrested, beaten, harassed and exiled. I still manage to stand up and tell the truth.
You guys rolled over for a braying pig’s ass with a bad combover and a tray of soggy whopers??? Like, that’s it? He didn’t even get you a two-piece? Really? Another zero on your book deal bottom line? That’s all it took?”
Omnes Omnibus
@schrodingers_cat: How many of them actually live on PA? I assume that by BJ demographic you are talking about white people and probably middle class professionals. Unless they actually live in PA, anyone’s preference does not mean a thing.
RaflW
The conventional wisdom of “If everyone is disappointed, I must be doing a centrism, ain’t that great?” is indeed worn out.
Ruckus ??
@guachi:
Isn’t absolute centrism being the squishy middle that does nothing but take up space? Always having to stand in the middle of the road that always goes in the both directions because we can’t make a decision or see a concept of movement so we stand still and accept everything that comes at us from any angle.
geg6
@Baud:
He does. Especially against the crazier GQP candidates, like Oz and the Black QAnon woman.
Feathers
@Brachiator: The problem is it’s a huge motivator for the 18–30 voters the Dems need to show up at the midterms. The whole question of higher Ed funding is an ugly swamp of shit that we thought would help turned out to fuel money grubbing and corruption.
One of the real issues is that saying you needed to go to college to get a good job turned out to be permission for employers to treat the workers who didn’t go like shit. This license was self-granted, of course, but I have heard people pull the “well they should have gone to college” garbage. It’s right up there with “don’t have kids you can’t afford” as a how to spot an asshole fast signal.
Brachiator
@Omnes Omnibus:
Same here.
Baud
@Scout211:
That’s what you get when you have a Democratic supermajority.
eversor
@Ruckus ??:
No. Centrism is fiscally conservative and socially liberal. It’s not workable. Neither is liberalism in terms of socially liberal and fiscally liberal. Outright fascism of hard right social and liberal social programs is. We could fight it, but religion is too deep here. So anybody who is not anti religion is pro fascist now.
geg6
@zhena gogolia:
If you can possibly compare him to them, you know nothing at all about the guy. He’s not them. In any way, shape or form.
RaflW
@Betty Cracker: Certainly for Klobuchar, who is my senior senator, so I watch pretty closely, she’s a moderate. And she’s adapted and grown as she has witnessed the GOP’s awful antics.
What I can’t abide about Manchin is that he is fully invested in pretending the GOP are still ‘gettable’. He produced exactly zero R votes when he claimed he was working to get 10. When he had no plan B for what happens when even Collins and Murkowski slapped him away is what makes him such a douchecanoe.
Klobuchar at least understands that we Democrats have some agreed policy goals by way of electing a Potus who ran on them. and is, I think, pretty realistic about how we can (and sometimes can’t) attain them.
zhena gogolia
@Brachiator: Haha, I had no idea I was
Your best fit is…
Progressive Left
… along with 6% of the publi
The questions were pretty blunt instruments.
Baud
@RaflW:
Agree. It’s an insult to Klobuchar to classify her with Manchin.
geg6
@Kay:
This is exactly right.
germy
@RaflW:
Manchin sat with the Republicans when Biden gave his SOTU. And then criticized Biden after the speech.
trollhattan
@Scout211: I want a
tacoformula truck on every corner.taumaturgo
@Paul in KY: I wholeheartedly agree with you yet with US unconditional backing and money Israel can do as it pleases with the imprisoned Palestinians. Shame on us.
trollhattan
@Baud: If they ever fight I know who my money’s on.
Kent
@Feathers: I think it is simpler than that. For a lot of employers hiring for basically white collar jobs, a college degree is a very simple and handy screen to make sure you are looking at candidates who are reasonably presentable, literate, not druggies or criminals or whatever. It isn’t that they want to treat non-college educated like shit. They are just lazy and it is an easy screen to weed down your number of applicants. Plus most of the hiring managers are themselves college grads so it is already going to be their bias to look for the same in applicants.
geg6
@Brachiator:
You obviously don’t know a lot of low income college students or their families.
Omnes Omnibus
@geg6: There is a superficial style that they have in common. It grates on me, but, as I said above, I am not a PA voter and I don’t know enough about the candidates to judge.
Suzanne
@Brachiator:
These two issues, along with the exorbitant cost for rent or homeownership, are the three hottest topics I hear about from the young people in my professional circle and Spawn and his friend cohort. Now, these are mostly progressive young people, and thus not “the Democratic Party base”, but they’re exactly the kind of constituency that we will need to develop. They don’t like the GOP and if we were smart, we would aspire to get them aligned to us early.
But if we’re sitting around being sad that we lost the “factory floor” types and we’re only attracting “faculty lounge” people, we’re going to blow the opportunity.
Brachiator
@Feathers:
From a recent study
Many things motivated younger voters, including the majority with only a high school or community college education.
We need to build on this.
Also, historically younger people who don’t vote are busy living their lives and having fun. A lot simply don’t care as much about politics when they are younger. This was certainly true when I was in high school through my young adulthood. The one exception was young people who wanted the vote at 18 to because the draft and the Vietnam War was looming over them.
Z. Mulls
Fetterman (who got my vote) is doing what I wish the Democrats were doing nationwide. Not conceding the red counties, but going out and talking face to face. Basically expanding the map and closing the gap, knowing we won’t win the red counties we just have to start doing better.
He comes from a red area of the state and was mayor of a small struggling town, so he understands what people are going through, and isn’t a guy in a suit talking about helping the little people. He has a sense of humor. And he will not mince words — he flat out said if elected he will vote to kill the filibuster and codify Roe.
He is very strong on immigrant rights, his wife is an immigrant and has a very fun Twitter feed. They routinely refer to her as the SLOP (Second Lady of Pennsylvania).
I think he appeals statewide (including in the ‘tucky portion of PA) and will help build a long term presence.
ETA: I am just emphasizing some points others have made above; as a PA resident I’ve been watching him since he ran for Lt Gov
geg6
@schrodingers_cat:
Your social media doesn’t know shit. And the above quote has finally made me pie you.
I have never been a big Fetterman fangirl, but stupid takes like your just push me further into his camp. As a mayor of a majority minority city, he won big and was the mayor for about 14 years. If he was acting as a vigilante that night, he was doing to protect his neighbors. All of whom were minorities.
schrodingers_cat
@Omnes Omnibus: I was opining more on the premise of BC’s post about what kind of a fighter Democrats supposedly like. I say that it depends on the Democrat in question.
The likes of Elizabeth Warren and Katie Porter are more popular among the white college educated demographic than Democrats in general.
As for PA, the only poll that matters is the primary this coming Tuesday and the respondents of that poll are the Democrats who live in PA and will vote (or have already voted in the primary)
JR in WV
@Paul in KY:
I will answer with one word: Gaza. Trapped people without medical care, work, adequate food. They smuggle rice into Gaza.
As a young person I read novels by Leon Uris, about the Warsaw ghetto uprising, about the heroic Israeli fighters facing the Arab armies, and I believed in the Zionist movement, even though my family was mostly Presbyterian way back, the Scots-Irish side.
Now I know that any societal group can become fascists, and the Israelis are there now. Just like the Republicans, quell surprise!
schrodingers_cat
@geg6: Well will see who is right on Tuesday. I love how you are so emphatic about everything. It must be wonderful to be without doubt.
He was a mayor of town of less than 2000 people so I wouldn’t be drawing sweeping conclusions about his minority appeal based on that.
CarolPW
@zhena gogolia: Me too, but only because I am so angry now (previous quizzes show me much more moderate). I bet a lot of women would test at least one rank more radical now.
geg6
@Anyway:
No, she’s not. She’s QAnon.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
WSJ says SEC started looking into Musk’s stock antics with Twitter
MrSnrub
@Anyway: She’s from the Philadelphia suburbs. She ran for congress in my district in 2020.
I don’t know a lot about her, but a podcast I was listening to was talking about the PA GOP race, and said that she was running harder/further Right than the others.
I also know someone in my township facebook page hates her, views her as RINO based on stuff unearthed from a while ago.
brendancalling
@zhena gogolia: I met Fetterman the first time he ran for Senate. He didn’t strike me then, or now, as a Grayson or Weiner.
trollhattan
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: “Elon Musk begins process for buying SEC in hostile takover.”
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Bullshit. Come on SC, this is an unfair mischaracterization. And maybe save the childish name calling for the Republicans…
geg6
@Omnes Omnibus:
Can you explain what it is? I don’t see it at all. He is not a blowhard and he has worked in the actual trenches, unlike both of those guys. Did either of them move to a small failing, majority minority town in Western New York or the Florida Panhandle, start a GED program and go onto run for mayor, serving 14 years and bring some business and vitality back to that town after 30 years of economic and social failure and then win statewide offices? No? No resemblance then.
fancycwabs
Hey, I’m running as a centrist!
A medicare for all, protect the environment, pro-abortion, gun control, antimonopoly, black lives matter, billionaires-oughta-pay-their-taxes centrist.
Just like all centrists.
Barbara
@geg6: Lamb is emblematic of the idea that he’s the kind of person who should hold office — and therefore, that he is more likely to be elected. It’s the paint by numbers approach to political office, and as my mom said about John Edwards, it often amounts to the whole being a lot less than the sum of the parts.
geg6
@schrodingers_cat:
I really do like pie.
Brachiator
@geg6:
RE: The problem of student loan debt gets written about a lot, but this is more an upper middle class entitlement than a broad concern of the Democratic Party base.
I know a lot of low income families. This includes people who never get a shot at college because their public schools are shitty.
I deal with tax professionals whose client base is mainly lower income clients. Low wages, child care, unemployment and all consumer debt are bigger issues than college student loan debt.
But there is an odd thing for a subset of students. They have student debt even though their Forms 1098-T show that scholarships exceed tuition and so they do not qualify for the American Opportunity Credit.
What other costs are they hit with?
Ken
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Darn, just late with filing a form. I was hoping that they’d found that after loudly announcing he was buying all the stock, he began quietly selling his stake. Still possible, I suppose.
geg6
@Barbara:
I gave $$ and canvassed for Lamb in both his races. He’s not a bad guy and he’s not as conservative as, say, Joe Manchin. He was the best we could expect in our old district, which was very much GQP leaning. It was almost a miracle when he won the first time. But the new district could have been his forever. I don’t understand why he ran in this race.
JR in WV
@schrodingers_cat:
Say whut? Who on Earth are these cartoons? Use proper names if you want us to have a grasp on what you are saying!! I literally have no idea what you think, who these people are, what point you are trying to make!
Cacti
@Brachiator: Amend the bankruptcy code so that student loan debt can be discharged under Chapter 7, and stop making it different from every other type of signature loan or personal debt.
Barbara
@Suzanne: This brings up something that just makes me froth at the mouth in fury — the idea that the “working class” consists solely of (mostly white) men working in factories. Tom Edsall in the NYT is another one of these idiots who goes off on this track that “working class” is equivalent to white men working in manufacturing jobs. Factory workers are working class, no doubt, but they are a smaller and smaller percentage of working class people. The Democratic Party is still the party of the working class — it’s just that the working class is increasingly made up of women and men of all colors working in service oriented jobs. My mother, a secretary, and my sister, a home health aide, and my other sister, an administrative assistant in a public school system, are all “working class.”
It’s just insulting that Paul Begala can’t even admit these working people exist let alone deserve representation.
Ocotillo
@The Moar You Know: You sure it wasn’t a chalk drawing of a severed pigs head? That would be worth getting concerned about.
Suzanne
@geg6: I didn’t have strong feelings about anybody when I moved here. I’ve been a bit mehhhh on Fetterman since I started following him, with his “Union way of life is sacred” line that he keeps using, but he came out loud and proud about scrapping the filibuster and protecting abortion rights, so he’s sliding back up in my estimation. I had seen one really positive moment from Conor Lamb speaking on the floor of the House, so I was inclined more toward him, but the more I see of him, the more I think he sucks.
And despite our resident PITA asserting that minorities like Conor Lamb, I have yet to see that. His district is pretty white and I seriously have not encountered one person in real life who supports the guy who isn’t white. And there’s a black man in the race, Malcolm Kenyatta, who comes from Philly and actually represents a large minority population. So the analysis is…. lacking, to be polite.
But it’s the same kind of dipshittery that brings us centrism: when you don’t like a cohort of people, you don’t want to align with them. I WAS INTO THEM BEFORE THEY GOT POPULAR!!! into a political position.
geg6
@Brachiator:
Well, I’m willing to bet I know a lot more of them, being that I am a financial aid officer at a public university. I don’t know a single student here who has scholarships that are more than tuition and related expenses (which includes tuition, fees, etc.). Zero. The only students here who don’t have student loans are the rich and upper middle class kids.
JR in WV
@eversor:
But where is “here”? I could guess blindly, but won’t… Could even be here.
Suzanne
@Barbara:
Exactly. Like, hairdressers and waitstaff and preschool teachers and pharmacy technicians and nurses and hotel housekeepers….ALSO WORKING CLASS, YOU DUMB FUCKS.
It used to be possible to support a family with a job working at a makeup counter at Macy’s. But these fucking fossils in the Dems never wax nostalgic about that. Why?! Because they only give a shit about white dudes. They only know how to appeal to white dudes, especially those who are downwardly mobile.
geg6
@JR in WV:
She means Fetterman and Bernie Sanders. She’s an idiot.
Barbara
@geg6: I gave him money too, and I think he’s okay, but he seems to think that his biography makes him more suitable than Fetterman and I think that’s a highly dubious approach to getting elected.
Omnes Omnibus
@geg6: Honestly, it is a north-eastern loudness and bluntness that codes as honest, direct man of the people to many but does not appeal to me. I would not be surprised if I am an anomaly.
MrSnrub
@Suzanne: Kenyatta is great, but I’m not sure that Pennsyltucky is ready to elect a black gay man to US senate.
Geminid
@geg6: I realize many Pennsylvania Democrats really believe in John Fetterman. But at least one argument they use to support him is deceptive, I think. I’m speaking of the statement that John Fetterman “won big” in Braddock Mayoral races.
Fetterman won his first race for mayor with 158 votes. Not by 158 votes, with 158 votes. The second place finisher had 157 votes. Fetterman did pull in more than 250 votes his last election, when he was unopposed. Fetterman’s Braddock elections prove very little as far as his appeal to Black Pennsylvaia Democrats.
Fetterman’s performance next Tuesday in Black precints of Pittsburg and Philadelphia will be worth watching. Unlike in Virginia, which has a population that is 20% African American, a Democrat can win a primary in Pennsylvania without good support from Black Democrats. But at 10% of the Pennsylvania’s population, Black voters can make or break Fetterman in November. He’d better take them more seriously than his supporters who dismiss real concerns about Fetterman, and tell others that Pennsylvania’s Black voters have nowhere else to go.
Skepticat
I’ve thought for quite a while that the only center in which they’re interested is the spotlight in which they bask. Susie, who is supposed to represent me but certainly doesn’t, talks the label but doesn’t walk the walk.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Ken: Early days. Everytime Musk shot his mouth off on Twitter like this in the past it was part of some stock manipulation scheme.
Baud
@Geminid:
Talk about every vote counting.
zhena gogolia
@CarolPW: Could be. I think I might have taken it before and been not so “progressive.”
Barbara
@Ken: I am a little fuzzy on SEC regulations, but I think that once you announce your intention to buy a majority of shares there is a “quiet” period where you can’t sell, or at least have to be very public about selling.
zhena gogolia
@brendancalling: Well, good. My friend in Pittsburgh likes him. He’s not my style, but I don’t live there.
Barbara
@Geminid: Having grown up in Pittsburgh, I do get that, though I would point out that Fetterman (unlike Lamb) has won a statewide election. He is no longer the mayor of Braddock, which, if you are paying attention, is a majority African-American “city.” I went door to door canvassing for John Kerry in Braddock.
Suzanne
@MrSnrub:
Agreed. And he’s definitely on the progressive end of the spectrum!
There’s just a commenter here who seems to be leaning into this narrative that white people love Fetterman and racial minorities love Conor Lamb. The, uhhhhh, evidence doesn’t support that thesis. It’s a shitty analysis, because it neglects the candidate who isn’t white and already represents a lot of people who aren’t white.
I go to yoga class in Conor Lamb’s town (his sister is also a member at that yoga studio, as she told me) and that yoga studio is the only place in that town I have ever even seen someone who isn’t white.
Jeffro
all
of
this
Kent
@Jeffro: Yep. Manchin and Sinema aren’t “centrists”. they are obstructionists. Two entirely different things. They aren’t really on the center of any specific issue at all.
The closest things we might have to centrists in the Senate would be someone like Murkowski. Who I would note does NOT obstruct GOP legislation like Sinema and Manchin do. She goes ahead and votes with her party, she just isn’t as right wing as say Ted Cruz. In other words, she is an actual centrist, not an obstructionist. And does lots of actual work with Democrats on the committee level.
Suzanne
In case you’re curious… all figures from Wikipedia.
Kenyatta represents PA-181:
25.5% White
61.8% Black
13.4% Hispanic
Lamb represents CD-17, which has the following breakdown:
Fetterman was mayor of Braddock:
”The racial makeup of the borough was 30.12% White, 66.52% African American, 0.14% Native American, 0.24% Asian, 0.69% from other races, and 2.30% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 1.51% of the population.”
Suzanne
Got stuck in moderation for copy/pasting some info from Wiki. Ughhh.
Spanky
@Suzanne: It’s the multitude of links. Highlight the whole quote and click the broken link icon above the comment box.
Almost Retired
This has been a super interesting thread, and I hope there’s another one on the Pennsylvania primary (or maybe a post mortem). This contest has it all. On the Democratic side, you have candidates who are wildly divergent stylistically (and to a lesser but significant extent philosophically) in a way we never get in California.
And the Republican primary is such a parade of crazies – but each one crazy in his or her own special way – that the outcome will be informative, I guess, as to which flavor of irrational dysfunction appeals most to Pennsylvania Republicans.
Can’t wait to see how it comes out. I don’t know enough (anything) about Pennsylvania politics to know which combination of candidates gives the Democrats the best chance at flipping the seat (Fetterman v Barnette, maybe)? But this race is, to me, easily the most interesting in this primary cycle.
Xavier
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: there’s a very simple reason why Republicans “refuse to govern” when they are in power: they believe that collective action is illegitimate except in service of protecting private property and preserving the status quo of privilege. “Governing” threatens those interests.
Geminid
@Barbara: I think the electability question has been considered by Pennsylvania Democrats, and if Fetterman’s consistent lead in polls holds up, they’ll have decided this question in Fetterman’s favor. This Virginian isn’t going to kick if they do.
But there is something of a cult of personality around the man that is evidenced by the vehemence with which some of his followers respond to legitimate concerns about him. As long as Fetterman himself recognizes that he is not above criticism he should do fine in November.
Jeffro
@Brachiator: Thanks! Very illuminating in many ways
Gin & Tonic
@Omnes Omnibus: Anomalous Omnes Omnibus does have the alliteration thing going, I’ll give you that.
Suzanne
@Almost Retired: The PA gubernatorial race will be interesting. Not much press yet, because there’s only one Dem running, Josh Shapiro. But the GOP candidates are like a goddamn mudslide of insanity.
JPL
Someone just sent this song to me, and maybe a front pager can unlock it so every can enjoy it.
David F. on Twitter: “@MollieKatzen @annepearl1 They better stock up! #RoeVWade https://t.co/qwttGTgmaF” / Twitter
Betty Cracker
@Almost Retired: I agree — PA US Senate is a fascinating race for all those reasons. I’m not sure who would match up best against Fetterman if he prevails (and by “best,” I mean, “most likely to lose” to Fetterman), but maybe Oz. He’s such an obvious phony, whereas Fetterman seems to scan as “regular guy” for lots of people.
Almost Retired
@Suzanne: RIght, in that one I’m pulling for Mastriano, correct? I mean, from the standpoint of enhancing Shapiro’s chances, with the understanding that I don’t have to actually live there if Mastriano wins.
Suzanne
@Almost Retired: Yes, supposedly Mastriano is the craziest of them all.
I get nervous with that approach, tho.
FYI, the dude who broke into my house is a registered Republican so I am doing my best to get him convicted of a felony.
JPL
GA early voting is underway, and I might skip the primary voting, which is unusual for me. Since we can vote in either party, I thought I might vote in the Republican and act as a spoiler, but the major candidates are on the road to win. Come November, I don’t care who is on the ballot, but I will vote straight democrat.
Apparently, media is saying the democrats are not turning out the voters, but in my case that’s not true.
Almost Retired
@Suzanne: For breaking into your house, or for being a registered Republican? Either one works for me.
Baud
@JPL:
Is anyone opposing Stacy Abrams in the primary?
Brachiator
@geg6:
I read your recent guest post about student loans and financial aid, and pay close attention to everything that you post about the issue. You clearly know your stuff and write about it with clarity and insight.
I teach tax preparers about the old tuition and fees deduction and current education tax credits. And I deal with various tax professionals throughout the tax season. The Form 1098-T only deals with the tuition and scholarships. The related expenses don’t qualify for a credit. I don’t know how much of total college costs are made up of these related expenses.
But over the past few tax seasons in particular, I have seen more Forms 1098-T where the scholarships exceed tuition. Obviously, though, there are still tons of students who qualify for education credits.
But here I am dealing indirectly with hundreds of tax preparers and thousands of tax returns.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Magdi Semrau has said something similar. Her progressive friends in what she describes only as “rural PA” are split between those who support Fetterman because they’re convinced he’s the second coming of Vermont Dumbledore, and those who think he’s the second coming of Bill Clinton.
Myself, it’s an interesting study in one of my hobby-horses: A lot of people just vote for affect. “I just like him” [usually]. I just hope those who hand-wave away the whole racist vigilante incident are right that Black voters will feel the same way.
Spanky
@Suzanne:
The quote is either “All politics is local” or “All politics is personal”, but either applies in your case.
Can felons vote in PA?
JPL
@Baud: No
Kemp is so far ahead, now he’s just running negative ads against Perdue and Stacy.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I recall some apocryphal story that some (white male?) people voted for Bernie because they thought Hillary was too radical.
I think I agree with you about affect.
schrodingers_cat
I stated my opinion without calling any commenter here names. I even said that it was what I observed based on Twitter and Balloon Juice. Name calling is not going to change the outcome of the election or my opinions for that matter.
You know who else is not a fan of Fetterman, other elected PA Dems.
Fetterman may win the primary, the polls show him ahead. The incident where he pointed the gun at the black jogger will haunt him in the general election if he wins and could drive down the turnout among sections that any Democrat needs to win general elections. This could affect the gubernatorial race and other down ticket races.
If I were in PA I would be voting for Lamb.
Baud
@JPL:
Uncontested primaries dampen turnout.
JPL
@Baud: The only way I can make a difference is to get Walker into a runoff, and that is doubtful.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: Mehmet Oz’s dual Turkish and American citizenship may hurt him in the primary, and in the general election if he is the nominee. His residency in New Jersey up until late last year won’t help either.
I expect Fetterman will attack Oz on this latter point The issue of his dual citizenship has already been raised in the Republican primary by third-party PACs.
Brachiator
@lowtechcyclist:
Absolutely agree. And there is a lot of good research going on. But the US cannot do anything to solve this problem on their own. Nor can they easily compel other nations to do more.
Baud
@Geminid:
Turkey and America is one thing.
But Jersey is totally unacceptable.
Will
I think Fetterman will do just fine with African American voters in PA. My guess is they will overwhelmingly support Kenyatta in the primary because his candidacy represents progress forward even if he isn’t likely to win. After that they will still vote in November for Fetterman.
I understand why voters outside the state worry about it. They don’t know Fetterman got a lot of media in Philadelphia over his work on the pardon board. It was a big deal. I imagine this will get played up big time with media buys in the Philly area before the general election as a reminder to help turnout the vote.
Baud
@JPL:
I didn’t realize Walker was predicted to lose.
Gin & Tonic
So Erdogan says Turkey will block Sweden’s and Finland’s applications to NATO. I say be careful what you wish for – who would prefer a NATO with Sweden and Finland but without Turkey?
debbie
@JPL:
NPR just reported Pence will go to Georgia to campaign for Kemp.
JPL
@Baud: No he’s predicted to win his contest without a runoff.
If he comes in under 50 there’s a runoff, which dampens him.
The reason I don’t like to do it is that republicans think you’re one of them. I had trump robo call my home phone, and I’ve still haven’t recovered.
JPL
@debbie: I imagine that trump will come at the same time. lo
Dueling rallies
geg6
@Omnes Omnibus:
I guess I get that but, to me, he’s more of a Yinzer, despite not having grown up here. No one here can relate to Grayson or Weiner. But they really like Fetterman.
trollhattan
@Gin & Tonic: Turkey can’t help being Turkey. Looks like they’re back to hating on the Kurds, and by extension I suppose Armenians. Definitely the Greeks, who are the worst!
Pissant.
Almost Retired
@JPL: Yeah, I got spooked on “strategic” voting in an open primary in 1992 in California. My wife and I voted for RWNJ Bruce Herschensohn in the Senate primary to head off the seemingly more electable moderate Republican Tom Campbell. Sonny Bono ran too, since the California Constitution requires a D list celebrity to run in every election.
Herschensohn won the primary, and then outperformed Bush by 1,000,000 votes and lost by less than 5% to Barbara Boxer. And even then, he was smacked with a strip club scandal at the last minute, in an era when most people voted on election day. So it could have been closer. Yikes!
Made me worry that I was too clever by half, to echo Suzanne’s point about being nervous about pulling for Mastriano in the Republican primary.
prostratedragon
@Anyway: “self-aware ” as in horrifically cynical? Don’t see how else a Palin type could be self-aware.
geg6
@Geminid:
I don’t agree but I see your point. But it’s not his supporters who are running. And yes, Braddock is a small town but it’s dominated by minority voters and pols. And the people I know who are involved in the community of Braddock love him. He still lives there and he always touts the community and does community work there to this day.
Geminid
@JPL: Do you have any sense as to how the Democratic primary in the Georgia 7th CD will go?
That’s one of two primaries where Democratic Representatives are competing. Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bordeaux face each other in the 7th, while Sean Casten and Marie Newman square off in the Illinois 6th. McBath and Casten both flipped suburban seats in 2018. Bordeaux flipped the Georgia 7th in 2020, while Newman knocked out paleo-Democrat Lipinski in a primary that year and went on to win the safe seat.
Redistricting caused this year’s two Dem on Dem contests.
geg6
@Suzanne:
You’ve got that right! Insanity at every level of the GQP gubernatorial ticket.
New Deal democrat
@trollhattan: Just taking a wild-ass guess here, but I suspect the real reason for the sudden objection to something everyone has known for several months has been coming, is payback for the EU categorically rejecting Turkey’s application to join.
frosty
@geg6: So he’s a Sheetz and not a WaWa. But he grew up a Rutters.
Mike E
@zhena gogolia: Heh, same here, comrade!
JPL
@Geminid: No. Since I’m in the sixth, I feel that she abandoned us. She would lose this time, but maybe not two years from now.
Andrew Young came out for Bourdeaux , so that might help her chances. He had supported them both when in different districts. McBath has lots of money though
It wasn’t just redistricting though. In GA you don’t need to live in the district that you want to represent. One need only look at MTG
geg6
@Brachiator:
Then the government website is wrong. I looked it up to be sure I was right and they say the same thing I do. Tuition and related expenses is what it said.
Betty Cracker
@Gin & Tonic: I guess it’s too late to insert a “must have an actual democratic form of government” clause in NATO — Turkey and Hungary would both get ousted. On the other hand, our creaky-ass U.S. democracy is teetering too.
debbie
Too funny:
Gin & Tonic
Heading out to harvest another couple of gallons of ramps.
Geminid
@New Deal democrat: Erdogan may just be posturing. Lately he’s been making nice with the many neighbors he’s pissed off over the last decade, and patching up his frayed relations with the U.S. So he may well come around on this issue despite being stubborn as a cranky mule.
Jinchi
@germy: Sinema and Manchin aren’t centrists. They’re obstructionists and saboteurs. Centrists don’t threaten to blow up their party’s agenda. And they don’t negotiate in bad faith only to walk away after months of effort, leaving their colleagues looking ineffectual.
Sinemanchin are labeled Centrists because the press frames politics as strictly left-right, making the swing votes ‘centrist’ regardless of the reason for their objections.
Pointing out that they could simply be bought and paid for is considered unseemly.
Victor Matheson
@taumaturgo: I would happily trade every Republican from AL, ID, SC, LA, TN, and KY, with Manchin/Sienma clones.
It would be an absolute disaster to elect Manchin/Sienma clones in MA, CA, or NY. Take what you can get where you can get it.
Manchin and Sienma have been reliable votes for essentially every Biden nomination and a reasonable amount of other stuff. You can’t hope for better in WV than Manchin. Of course, AZ has some ‘splainin’ to do, and hopefully there is a different Dem there who can still carry the state.
Villago Delenda Est
The solution to all this remains my nym.
lowtechcyclist
@eversor:
I’ve been willing to give you the benefit of the doubt when you point out how much of our political problems are on account of religious crazies, because that happens to be true.
But when you say
that’s just bullshit. You’re just lumping everyone who’s religious in with the crazies. There are a number of people in the jackaltariat who identify as Christian (myself included) and I’m sure other faiths are represented here as well. If you think we’re pro-fascist, you’ve really lost your way.
Geminid
@JPL: I am sorry for your loss. It must have been nice to finally have a Democratic Representative.
I may benefit from redistricting as I am now just within the new Virginia 7th CD. Incumbent Abigail Spanberger should win the 7th if we Democrats do the work. Richmond area Democrats are now stuck with Republican Congressman Rob Wittman, though. They’ll miss Spanberger a lot.
lowtechcyclist
@Villago Delenda Est:
I don’t know that it would *solve* everything, but it sure would be a big step in the right direction.
zhena gogolia
@lowtechcyclist: Lost cause.
Betty Cracker
@lowtechcyclist: Agreed. The commenter also appears to be lumping atheists who are not anti-religion into the “pro-fascist” camp. That would be me.
I hate fundamentalism of just about any stripe and am appalled by how much damage it’s done. But I know lots of wonderful liberal Christians who are much better people than I am. I also believe that if religion didn’t exist, hateful people would find another reed to hang their hate on.
Villago Delenda Est
@Betty Cracker: There ARE actual Christians in this country. They’re just not part of the “religious right”.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: There also plenty of non-religious people here and elsewhere who are not anti-religion. I guess that by the commenter’s standards, 90% or more of the people around them are pro-fascist. A scary thought if true!
zhena gogolia
@Villago Delenda Est: Rev. Barber is my model.
Cacti
@Geminid: AFAIK, Oz still lives full time in New Jersey. His Pennsylvania “residence” is his in-laws home.
Geminid
@Cacti: That sounds like it will be a good line of attack for his Democratic opponent.
kalakal
@Betty Cracker: Agreed.
different-church-lady
I’m at a loss to understand how running more-left-wing candidates is going to peel away people who are determined to vote for the most-right-wing-crazy they can get.
JMS
@Anyway: She came from Montgomery County! She ran against Madeleine Dean, my congresswoman and lost, but really not as badly as she should have lost under the circumstances (Montco is quite blue). Then she tried to do court challenges of the absentee ballots in the race. Very Trumpy. I actually don’t know much else about her because I wasn’t going to vote for her in that race and she wasn’t going to win. But she’s not a carpetbagger, as far as I know. So she’s got that. Just crazy
JMS
@Suzanne: Even in an extremely bad year for Dems, Shapiro’s got this, barring something really bizarre happening. Wolf ousted an incumbent in 2014, which was also a really bad Dem year, and he hadn’t won anything statewide. There is nobody on the Republican side that will appear credible head to head.
eversor
@JR in WV:
If you aren’t for striping Christianity and banning it, calling the religion hate speach, and willing to enact violence against the religion up to and including killing…. you are on the Trump side. You have a bible, fuck you Trumper! This is the only way.
Fair Economist
@debbie:
That might save Perdue’s campaign.
DB11
@eversor: OK, it’s time you were banned permanently for this eliminationist hate speech.
Geminid
@Fair Economist: When it comes to charisma, Mike Pence is like that Sagittarius A* black hole people were talking about in the morning thread. If you had a sensitive enough camera you might detect some shrinkage in Kemp when he stands next to the ex-VP.
Another Scott
(I haven’t read all the comments yet. Someone above probably made the following points better and more succinctly.)
This is the second piece that I recall by Amy Walter (note the spelling) that has not impressed me. I vaguely recall thinking that she had reasonable political skills a decade or few ago when she was occasionally on various PBS political/news shows. Your excerpts from this piece (I haven’t clicked over) just seems silly to me. Of course there are still battles for the party nomination for a seat. That’s a good thing.
Pew says Democratic turnout in 2018 was up massively compared to 2014:
People don’t turn out to vote in primaries unless they feel they have a good reason. Democrats saw what happened in 2010 and 2014 when they didn’t turn out. They saw what a disaster TFG was. There was a lot of motivation to fight for seats and take back the House, so there was a lot of work done to find winning candidates for districts and to support them.
It wasn’t a wings-vs-center battle. Framing it that way is less than helpful.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Matt McIrvin
@Brachiator: That ideology quiz identifies me as “Progressive Left” even though I feel more like an establishment Democrat. I think it’s that I’ve spent so much time interacting with social media Marxists that the fact that I don’t insist on the elimination of capitalism as step 1 makes me feel like a fuddy-duddy.