Advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration are due to meet in June to decide on whether to recommend authorizing Moderna Inc's vaccine for children below 6 years old, and Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE's COVID-19 vaccine for children below 5 years old. https://t.co/5pW62zJGa3
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) June 1, 2022
The Chinese city of Shanghai eases Covid restrictions after two monthshttps://t.co/24G6XAg7Kc pic.twitter.com/wD0yH8Vd6x
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) June 1, 2022
The #COVID19 pandemic is not over.
"Global sequencing & surveillance capacity for #SARSCoV2 must be strengthened & combined with multidisciplinary studies of infectivity, virulence & immune escape, to track the unpredictable evolution of the pandemic."https://t.co/ZWbdHWBvkQ
— MicrobesInfect (@MicrobesInfect) May 31, 2022
Superspreader events are not coincidences of data:
*Very* wonky article here.
Despite widespread vaccination among older adults, the Omicron wave killed seniors in the U.S. at much higher rates per capita than Delta, preying on long delays since their last shots and showing the importance of boosters as campaigns nationwide wane. https://t.co/Qg1RjeczuI pic.twitter.com/qq2z1QNZmP
— The New York Times (@nytimes) May 31, 2022
Monroe County, NY:
82 new cases reported on 5/31. Since they took the long weekend off there are no case figures for 5/28 – 5/30, but the 7 day rolling average is 236 news cases per day. The 7 day rolling average was 662 new cases per day on 5/2 so it looks like we’ve peaked.
Deaths now at 1872, up 10 from last week.
Vaccinations still at 72.3%
A friend of mine, a public school teacher here in NYC, is having her second case of Covid since January (she’s vaxxed and boosted). Ugh.
I’ve been cracking jokes, now that I’m freshly recovered from my own 2nd case (first was in 2020), about having my Hot Girl Summer (although at my age that would mostly be me complaining about the heat), but in truth I’m going to be masking faithfully, as I’d really rather not be dealing with another case in 90 days. The vaccines are great at preventing serious illness, but it’s the mask that really reduces your chance of getting it at all.
O. Felix Culpa
QFT. I’ve just recovered from my first case (very mild) of covid: fully vaccinated, twice boosted, but got *relaxed* about masking while traveling in Scotland, where virtually NO ONE was masking or taking precautions. Tested positive the day before my flight home. Oops. An extra ten days in Edinburgh for me. Thank goodness I bought trip insurance!
Also too, virtually NO ONE (except for me and maybe five others) wore masks on the loooong flight home. Sheesh.
@O. Felix Culpa:
I was just in England. Agree that no one masks there, and masks were not required in the plane.. Luckily, I didn’t catch anything.
O. Felix Culpa
@Baud: Glad you stayed healthy! Physically, any way. ;) Hope you had a good time. I loved Scotland and would gladly go back again.
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 1,451 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 4,506,510 cases. It also reported seven deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 35,676 deaths – 0.79% of the cumulative reported total, 0.80% of resolved cases.
There were 23,152 active cases yesterday, 627 fewer than the day before. 945 were in hospital. 28 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, 15 confirmed cases cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 2,071 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,447,682 patients recovered – 98.7% of the cumulative reported total.
1,445 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. Six new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 13,302 doses of vaccine on 31st May: 7,404 first doses, 3,810 second doses, and 2,088 booster doses. The cumulative total is 70,939,755 doses administered: 27,989,963 first doses, 27,065,392 second doses, and 16,098,582 booster doses. 85.7% of the population have received their first dose, 82.9% their second dose, and 49.3% their booster dose.
@O. Felix Culpa:
I was in Edinburgh a long time ago. Both UK and Ireland have beautiful scenery, from the parts I’ve seen.
New Deal democrat
There is still a lot of holiday weekend noise in the dats, but cases appear to be in decline, at 98,300 as of today vs. 107,800 one week ago. Hospitalizations increased to 28,566 vs. 25,485 one week ago. Deaths declined to 314. I want to see a few more days of data to be sure this is real signal and not holiday related noise.
The more important news is that the CDC released its variant update yesterday. While BA.2.12.1 continued to increase its share slowly, the real news concerned BA.4/BA.5:
“Even as BA.2.12.1 continues to expand, the new South African variants are slowing its spread. While BA.2.12.1 accounts for 59% of variants identified, that’s only up from 52% last week, a roughly 7% increase overall. As previously mentioned, BA.4 and BA.5 [identified as BA.1.1.529 in the CDC update] increased 79%, from 3.4% to 6.1%.”
Over the weekend I noted that the BA.2.12.1 wave had peaked in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Upper Midwest and Northwest, while COVID cases continue to rise sharply in an east-west belt from Alabama to Arizona, and in the Rockies and High Plains north to Montana. The CDC update yesterday shows that is due to BA.1.1.529, which makes up 10%-12% of current infections in those Regions.
Dr. Trevor Bedford has weighed in as well, writing that “ Focusing on the US, we see that BA.2.12.1 currently has a logistic growth rate of 0.05 per day, while BA.4 and BA.5 have logistic growth rates of 0.09 and 0.14 per day.… This suggests BA.4 and BA.5 are fitter than BA.2.12.1 …, and that [ ] BA.4 and BA.5 [will] continue to increase in frequency on the background of BA.2 and BA.2.12.1.
More worryingly, he also writes “ There is a notable drop in neutralization titer against BA.4 and BA.5 viruses in boosted individuals and individuals with BA.1 breakthrough infections … Thus, we expect at least some portion of the BA.4 / BA.5 epidemics to be driven by increased vaccine breakthrough and increased reinfection relative to current BA.2 circulation.“
We’ll be on a plane back to Florida in July to take care of some family stuff. I hope the mask mandate will be restored by then. Regardless, I’ll have my N-95 on from the moment we enter the airport up here to the moment we exit the airport down there.
O. Felix Culpa
@Baud: Yes, they do have beautiful scenery. I spent several weeks hiking in Scotland, and the landscape was stunning.
On 5/31 Mainland China reported 22 new domestic confirmed (3 previously asymptomatic), 46 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 new domestic suspect cases, & 0 new deaths.
At Guangdong Province 5 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 19 active domestic confirmed & 11 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, at Fangchenggang. 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 8 active domestic asymptomatic (4 at Fangchenggang, 3 at Baise, & 1 at Chongzuo) cases remaining.
At Hunan Province the last domestic confirmed case recovered.
Tianjin Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. The city is no longer reporting recoveries, so I cannot track the count of active cases.
Shandong Province reported 7 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 7 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed cases & 18 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As not all of the administrative divisions in the province provide data on recoveries, I cannot track the count of active cases in all of the administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Xi’an in Shaanxi Province there currently are 5 active confirmed cases remaining.
Hebei Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 8 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Yongqing County in Langfang, all persons under centralized quarantine. 11 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 63 active asymptomatic case in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 1 industrial park at Langfang is currently at Medium Risk.
Liaoning Province reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Dandong. 1 asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 85 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Jilin Province reported 7 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 12 domestic confirmed & 5 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. As the province does not consistently break down recoveries by confirmed & asymptomatic cases or by jurisdictions, I can no longer track the count of active case counts in the different jurisdictions.
At Heihe in Heilongjiang Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case remaining.
Beijing Municipality reported 14 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic, 11 mild & 3 moderate) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 13 of the new positive cases are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & 1 via community screening. The community case 1st developed symptoms on 5/26 but did not immediately seek medical attention, symptoms worsened on 5/29 & tested positive at fever clinic on the same day. As the city does not break down recoveries by imported vs. domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there. 3 sites are currently at High Risk. 12 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 5 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 10 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all of the new positive cases were already under quarantine. There were 0 new deaths. 101 domestic confirmed & 1,159 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 1,213 active domestic confirmed (82 serious & 28 critical) in the city. The city is no longer publishing the number of active asymptomatic cases. 6 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
At Hubei Province 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (mild, at Wuhan) & 3 active domestic asymptomatic (1 at Jingmen & 2 at Ezhou) cases remaining.
At Jiangsu Province 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The currently are 5 active domestic confirmed & 13 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in each administrative division, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Anhui Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic, at Haozhou, a person returning from Shanghai on 5/29 & under centralized quarantine since. 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases (1 each at Haozhou & Xuancheng) remaining.
Zhejiang Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported versus domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
At Fujian Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Jiangxi Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, at Ruichang in Jiujiang, aa person coming from elsewhere & under centralized quarantine since arrival. 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 22 active domestic asymptomatic cases (19 at Yichun, 2 at Shangrao & 1 at Jiujiang) remaining.
Henan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic, both Zhengzhou) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic (act Xuchang) cases. The new positive case at Zhengzhou is a person coming from Shanghai on 5/24 & under centralized quarantine since. 11 domestic confirmed & 25 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 74 active domestic confirmed & 292 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Sichuan Province reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic (1 each at Chengdu, Guang’an & Guangyuan) cases. The cases at Chengdu & Guangyuan came from elsewhere & under centralized quarantine since arrival. The case at Guang’an is a traced close contact under centralized quarantine. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported vs. domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
At Qinghai Province 1 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
Ürumqi in Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, a traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 37 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
Yunnan Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, at Menglian County in Pu’er. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
On 5/31, Mainland China reported 13 new imported confirmed cases (0 previously asymptomatic), 50 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 247 confirmed cases recovered (21 imported), 1,405 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (53 imported) & 3 were reclassified as confirmed cases (all domestic), & 13,662 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 2,296 active confirmed cases in the country (226 imported), 120 in serious/critical condition (all domestic), 10,638 active asymptomatic cases (450 imported), 0 suspect cases. 168,483 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 5/31, 3,381.314M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 1.123M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 6/1 Hong Kong reported 505 new positive cases, 34 imported & 471 domestic (117 via RT-PCR & 354 from rapid antigen tests), 1 death (unvaccinated).
On 6/1, Taiwan reported 88,293 new positive cases, 46 imported & 88,247 domestic (including 136 moderate & 104 serious). There were 122 new deaths (ages ranging from < 5 y.o. to 90+ y.o., actual dates of death between 5/15 – 5/30, 115 having a range of underlying conditions, 67 partially/fully vaccinated). 2 of the new deaths are infants (1 mo. & 5 mo., respectfully), both died at home.
My elderly parents in Upstate NY just received their 2nd booster shots yesterday. My mom had Moderna for the 1st 3 shots, so she got Pfizer-BioNTech for her 2nd booster, dad is the reverse.
Did you mask up anyway?
I finished Paxlovid yesterday and I’ve felt fine since the day after I started it last week. In other news now we can FREAKOUT about a REBOUND!! I was pretty good at boxing out under the hoop back in the day so maybe that will help.
I am surprised that the per capita death rate among US elderly population was higher for the Omicron wave than the Delta wave, given the milder variant, the higher portion of people w/ primed immune systems from vaccination and/or infection, & some portion of the most vulnerable already died in previous waves.
@Baud: A bit of relief for the next couple of months, at least.
I masked indoors.
@raven: Glad to hear you are recovering!
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks, all I had was a sore throat and a positive test!
A couple of weeks ago, I spent an evening with my sister, and we had dinner at home indoors, talking all the while, yelled at an extra-innings baseball game and then sat around and gossiped until the wee hours. The next day, she had mild symptoms and tested positive for COVID (she’s vaxxed and boosted and careful in public, as am I). After a week or so of a sore throat, mild fever and coughing, she felt better and tested negative. I thought for sure I’d get it, but nope. Whew!
Cases are definitely up in Colorado. Positivity is over 20% so who knows how many cases we’re actually counting.
We’re supposed to visit family in the fall and I’m really worried about traveling.
O. Felix Culpa
@Betty Cracker: Not to make light of catching covid–because one never knows–but in my case, I’ve had colds that were worse. My symptoms were mild fatigue and an occasional cough. I’m thankful for the vaccinations and boosters!
@O. Felix Culpa: Thank you for the heads’ up about masking in the UK; we are headed there next week for vacation (including Scotland, which I’m super excited about). We’re going with friends, one of whom, I fear, is going to be resistant to wearing a mask on the flight. I think I’ll try the tactic of pointing out he’s not going to want to risk getting sick on the trip as we’re doing a lot of hopping from place to place. He and his wife and kid had Covid in late December (and are vaxxed), but now that’s no guarantee.
@Betty Cracker: I’m glad you didn’t get it from your sister! I’m pretty sure I got mine at a wedding, as 8 guests tested positive after, but none of them were in the small group I hung out with, (including my spouse). So go figure. It seems like such a roll of the dice.
O. Felix Culpa
@Nicole: The UK government has effectively declared the pandemic *over* and citizen behaviors have followed. I was outside most of the time, but I confess to getting lax about masking in indoor settings and on public transportation, along with the general populace. Oops.
ETA: Be forewarned, the Royal Mile in Edinburgh is kitschy. Go see it and the castle anyway if that’s in your plans, and move on. There are a lot more interesting/worthwhile places to visit.
@O. Felix Culpa: Yes, that’s fortunate indeed. Glad you came through it okay, and I hope I’m as lucky if I eventually catch it. I
@Nicole: Glad you are okay! It really does seem like such a crap shoot! My sister and her spouse are both healthcare providers and super careful about following all the protocols, and both managed to contract it anyway. There’s just a lot we still don’t know, I guess.
@Betty Cracker: No anti-viral? Oh, ya’ll is young !
I know that I think that I am immune to peer pressure, but I do find that it takes some discipline and mindfulness to continue to take precautions against COVID. My wife and I have not caught it yet, as far as we can tell, but that is not because we have been perfect or completely isolated from society.
I agree that there is some amount of luck involved whether you catch it or not, but we are not destined to catch it.
@YY_Sima Qian: Many, many more people were infected in the Omicron wave; that more than made up for the other effects.
New Deal democrat
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m not convinced by that graph. If, e.g., deaths among the elderly demographic went up 2x per capita, but infections went up 4x per capita, then Omicron was still milder. Since we aren’t shown infections per capita, the question remains open (at least from the information provided).
Flying back to PHL today after a week in Portland. Love the PNW and had a great time despite rains in the early part of the week. Lots of hiking, beer, city walking, restos … now I hope I get back home Covid-free.
Three friends have caught it in the past couple of days. (All live in other cities, so no risk to me.) One came home from a trip and said “why does it smell like cat pee in here?” Their automated litter box had stopped working and her husband hadn’t noticed because he’d lost his sense of smell.
@New Deal democrat:
Omicron is certainly milder than Delta & much more transmissive, but the elderly population is by far the best vaccinated & boosted n the US, plus many of the most vulnerable had already died in the previous waves. So I still find it shocking that Omicron killed more elders than Delta, given that there should not have been many immune-naive elders left by the time Omicron rolled around. It does not bode well for the most vulnerable population going into future Omicron/other variant waves when there are sub-variants that can escape immunity from infection by earlier Omicron variants. Broad acting vaccines w/ decent (as in, > 75%) sterilizing effectiveness are desperately needed, or repeated culling of the vulnerable population & added cohorts of Long COVID sufferers will be the price of “normalcy” for some time (a couple of years?) into the future.
Spent time at the park with my MIL this weekend. First time we’ve seen her since the Delta wave. She’s a kidney transplant recipient, and Paxlovid wouldn’t be a good fit with her anti rejection meds. She is on Evusheld, though, and I think she enjoyed spending some time with the grandbabies.
Now, just waiting to get my 2 year old vaccinated. And I’m back to work in just under 2 weeks. I’ll miss my baby time, but I plan to try to find the kid vaccination data and see what I can parse out, once I have access to my work computer stuff again.
@O. Felix Culpa:
What a terrible burden!
(Seriously though, I’m a little jealous )
I’m leaving for Italy July 3. They have dropped vaccination and testing requirements for entry and are discussing getting rid of most masking requirements. For now, you still need FPP2 masks for public transportation and some indoor activities such as museums and theaters. The Vatican will do its own thing, so you may still need masks there. I understand that they’ll accept N95 masks, but I still plan to order a box of FPP2 for some occasions
Ten more days in Rome sounds nice, but not if you’re quarantined.
@YY_Sima Qian: Even with our relatively high rate of vaccination among those 65+, compared to many Asian countries anyway, we still have 8.9% of that population with less than the initial full course of covid vaccination (i.e., 2 shots of mRNA or one of J&J). My back of the envelope calculation shows that that amounts to about 4.9 million prime candidates for death by covid, given that this age group accounts for 75% of deaths.
At the peak of the omicron surge, un- or under-vaccinated 65-79 year olds died at more than 15x the rate of those with the “full course” (setting aside the effects of boosters). For those 80+ the death rate was 6x higher in the unvaxxed.
At this point, the nearly 5 million un- or under-vaccinated old people in this country are that way by choice, and are likely to remain that way. The existence of new or better vaccines will not do a huge amount to lessen the toll of future surges of future variants in this population.
@smith: I do wonder if a nasal-spray vaccine would draw more people out who were afraid of injected vaccines, to get vaccinated or boosted with it.
(I do understand that any such thing would work best in combination with an injected vaccine, but I assume that either way, getting it would be better than not getting it.)
@smith: What you say makes sense, but a lot of the un-/partially vaccinated elders probably have prior infection(s). Of course, prior infection isn’t as protective against Omicron as vaccination.