With two months to go before the primary election in Florida, Charlie Crist has a commanding lead in the Democratic gubernatorial race, if early polls are accurate. An Orlando Sentinel article cites a St. Pete Polls survey conducted in May that had Crist leading Fried 52% to 19%. State Sen. Annette Taddeo is at 5%, and 25% of voters are undecided. Related from the O-Sen link:
Endorsement season has kicked off in an increasingly bitter battle in the race between U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist and Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried for the Democratic nomination for governor this year.
Crist’s backing by the state teachers’ union on Tuesday is just the latest endorsement announcement between the two camps, coming just days after Fried touted the support of the Democratic Black Caucus.
Fried has been taking potshots at Crist for accepting NRA money and opposing abortion back when he was a Republican. (Backstory: Crist was a GOP governor who ran as an independent for the U.S. Senate seat Rubio won, then scooped up the Dem gubernatorial nomination in 2014, when he lost to Scott, then won a U.S. House seat as a Dem.)
Fried will probably crank up the attacks in the coming weeks because she needs to make up a lot of ground. I suspect Crist’s massive lead is mostly name recognition, but who knows in this nutso state?
My gut instinct tells me if we nominate Crist, we’ll lose in November — and blow our best chance to prevent DeSantis from attempting to take his Orbán-inspired authoritarian governing style nationwide. I’ll support Crist if he’s the nominee, obviously, but his track record as a statewide Democrat…isn’t great. I’m not sure Fried could win either, but I’m in favor of trying something different, for fuck’s sake.
Anyhoo, further up the east coast, Dan Goldman, eloquent Democratic House legal counsel for Trump Impeachment I, is throwing his hat in the ring to rep the New York 10th. Former NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio, Rep. Mondaire Jones and New York Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou are already in the race. I have no insight into how that will shake out but am interested in hearing from informed locals. I admire Goldman and wish him well.
Last item: looks like the corrupt and unaccountable radical clerics on the SCOTUS intend to meddle in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race at a remove by ruling on a county-level PA judicial race:
Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. on Tuesday put a hold on counting some challenged ballots in Pennsylvania while the Supreme Court continues to review a lower court’s decision that they be tallied…
The state’s requirement is that mail-ballot voters “fill out, date and sign” a form declaration on the outer envelope used to return ballots. But the federal judges said not counting the votes of those who did not provide a date violated federal civil rights law because the requirement was immaterial to the voters’ qualifications. There are no indications of fraud, the ballots were received by the state’s deadline and election officials noted they would have counted ballots with the wrong date but not those with no dates at all, the judges said.
“We are at a loss to understand how the date on the outside envelope could be material when incorrect dates — including future dates — are allowable but envelopes where the voter simply did not fill in a date are not,” Judge Theodore McKee wrote. “Surely, the right to vote is made of sterner stuff than that.”
Wouldn’t it be pretty to think so, Judge McKee? This cock-up underscores the desperate need for national standards on elections, IMO.
So does my personal experience. The mister and I used vote-by-mail for the first time during the pandemic. One time, the official enclosed envelopes that voters must use to return the ballots sealed themselves shut in transit due to the humidity (duh, Florida!), so we had to go vote in person. Luckily, we had that option! Couldn’t help but wonder how many people whose envelopes arrived in the same condition did not.
Another time we used vote-by-mail, the instructions on signing, dating, etc., the ballot and the envelope were confusing enough that the mister, who is no dummy but occasionally inattentive to details, almost screwed his up. It shouldn’t be hard!
What’s happening in y’all’s states?
Open thread!
Wednesday Morning Open Thread: President Hala-beoji Biden Scores A Hit
Baud
Wow. I wouldn’t have predicted those poll numbers. I assumed it would be closer.
Elizabelle
Fried is not going to make up a 30 point deficit. I wonder about going so heavily negative against Crist; why do the Republicans’ work for them?
When is the primary? Is it before or after the House hearings on the January 6th insurrection begin (believe on June 9th; next week).
I think sometimes politicians have to think about Team Democrat rather than their own electoral ambitions. At least, not tear others down.
gVOR08
You and me both. Nikki Fried has at least a theoretical chance of generating some enthusiasm. Christ is just another blah establishment Democrat (now). I’ll vote for Christ, I may even help campaign for him. But when I fill in the oval for him I’ll hold my nose.
dmsilev
The CA primaries are next week. Governor and Senator are snooze-fests; Newsom and Padilla will win both the primary and the general. Here in LA, the big events are LA City Mayor and LA County Sheriff. Hard to say what will happen with either. Hopefully the incumbent sheriff gets turfed out; he’s been an absolute disaster.
Benw
My son’s driving test is this morning. Fingers crossed!
Cameron
I’ve actually found it easier to vote in FL than I did in PA. I’ve voted by mail for every election since I got here in 2016, and haven’t had a problem (although I’m lucky – I’m a couple blocks from the polling place and only a short bus ride from the county supervisor of elections’ office). Of course, Manatee being a pretty red county, my vote doesn’t mean doodly-squat. I don’t have any special problem with Crist; I guess I like Fried better because she doesn’t take any shit.
USSC is determined to elect Republicans in PA, isn’t it? I’d love to see Fetterman win, but suspect things will be rigged for Dr. Oz or the Wizard of Oz or whoever the fuck winds up as the R. And I don’t even want to think about the gubernatorial race there…..
TheTruffle
Does Florida have a Beto or a Stacey Abrams? Someone to shake up the state party? It seems to be a mess.
jonas
@dmsilev: I haven’t followed the sherriff’s race closely. Who (and please let there be *someone*!) is running against Villaneuva? That guy is corrupt AF.
Sure Lurkalot
@Benw: My nephew is newly licensed and it made him so happy. Hoping for happy for your son too.
Martin
Agreed. Nothing really against the guy, but Nikki feels like the better turnout candidate.
Baud
I get that people here like Fried, but I can’t help question the basis for the assumption that a candidate that loses the primary, especially if losing badly, would do a better job turning out voters in the general election.
I get there are reasons why that’s not an impossible theory, but it seems like a pretty flimsy theory.
The Moar You Know
What are his polling numbers against DeSantis? Gut feeling is one thing, but I want to know what the polls say. I know they must be running them now.
karensky
PA Senate Race is a cluster fuck as noted above. Fetterman continues to raise the money though!
Andrew Abshier
Floridian here. Remember when Andrew Gillum won the nomination and the cognosceti of our state tore their collective scalps up saying it was going to be a bloodbath in November? He came within 0.5% of winning. I can’t see Charlie inspiring a following like Andrew did, and I’m worried we’re getting so many new residents in the Republican demographic that it’s going to be uphill no matter who the nominee is. I’ll work for the nominee regardless, but would prefer a Fried victory.
Sure Lurkalot
Primaries in Colorado are at the end of June. Almost all of the Democrats are running unopposed so it should be uneventful for me. Given that, my unaffiliated spouse could be a spoiler and vote the Republican ballot which is allowed here. We are not in the buffoon Boebert’s district so no help there.
It’s easy to vote here…everyone gets a ballot by mail, tons of drops everywhere and you can still vote in person, early or on Election Day.
Andrew Abshier
@The Moar You Know: Polling for Crist vs. DeSantis shows Charlie 12 points down right now. This is going to be a real task to close that gap.
trollhattan
Poor Florida Dems. They rummage through the candidate closet and voila! the desiccated-but-tan husk of Charlie Christ tumbles out and they’re “We good.”
He could not even beat a human-adjacent ambulatory ghoul.
The Moar You Know
@The Moar You Know: Well, to answer my own question, I just went and looked, and turns out it doesn’t matter one bit who the fuck runs against DeSantis. I would ask WTF is going on with that state, but I’ve got some family there and sadly it’s just been this way for a long, long time.
gvg
I have my doubt’s about Fried. She said some stupid stuff supporting Crypto currency and she is getting encouraged by her supporters to automatically be combative. The last time we nominated someone fresh and new for governor he lost to deSantis. My father and I both thought the mainstream old democrat had a better chance (not that we liked her better, just that she could get more votes on election day) but the primary voters wanted new so we went along. It didn’t work. And Andrew Gillum has had problems since then that would have bothered me if he had won. Not as much as DeSantis actual policies, just enough that I really wish the other candidate had won.
I think it comes down to policy. I want both of them to be clear how they will handle abortion, medicare expansion, and police policy for example. Also education policy.
Christ did break with his former party which wasn’t easy and did not help his career. It cost him. I think he is firm on the republicans are too extreme but I want to hear him spell out what he stands for now.
Nikki has a chance but those are pretty bad poll numbers. I would not have predicted that. If other polls don’t show better odds, she will need to go away without tearing down the other candidate.
gene108
The academic who drew the NY state maps needs to be “slapped” upside the head.
I swear a dedicated Republican operative couldn’t have done a better job ratfucking Congressional Democrats.
Long time incumbents and committee chairs duking it out in the primary?
That’s a Republican dream scenario.
gvg
Anybody who thinks Cryptocurrency is a good idea is gullible IMO.
eclare
@gvg: Same here.
Betty Cracker
@trollhattan:
Hence my gut feeling, which I trust more than polls at this point. I mean, losing to Bat Boy is a data point!
hells littlest angel
Alito: “The card says “Moops.”
Betty Cracker
@gvg: IIRC, the polls have been all over the place; they’re not all that bad. But I don’t put much stock in the Polling Fairy anyway.
I hear you about Gillum. I voted for Graham in the primary, and there’s no way to prove it, but I have a sick feeling that if she had won instead of Gillum, we’d all be saying “DeSantis who?” instead of worrying about the sumbitch finishing Trump’s hit-job on American democracy.
I also hear you about Fried. I’ve got some misgivings about her myself, but she’s willing to take the fight to DeSantis, and maybe that’s what we need instead of the third recycling of Crist. We’ll see in August.
eclare
@hells littlest angel: Hahaha. So true.
lgerard
I would dearly love to see marco rubio sent back to wherever. He is the emptiest of suits and I cannot believe that any vigorous campaign pointing out what a non-entity he is would not succeed.
Geminid
I will be voting in the newly drawn Virginia 7th CD, where current 7th CD Representaive has a clear path to the Democratic nomination. Six Republicans are vying for their nomination. The new 7th is said to be D+7, but Spanberger and district Democrats know they have hard work ahead of them if they want to hold this seat.
The big fight in Virginia will be down in Tidewater, where Representative Elaine Luria will run in what appears to be a 50-50 district. The two Republicans who want to face Luria are fighting over who is in fact the true conservative. They and Luria are retired Navy. Luria will benefit from her work on the Armed Services Commmitee, and she is also one of the seven Democrats on the January 6 Committee. That may or may not swing a lot of votes, but it will probably help Luria’s fundraising. High profile committee hearings tend to make “stars” out of Democrats with little national reputation.
Both Luria and Spanberger were among the 40 Democrats who flipped red seats in 2018.
Roger Moore
It seems to me that the “Conservatives” on the USSC are like the Biblical Pharisees, who are devoted to an empty, formal legalism. They treat rights as something that have meaning only on paper and not in the real world.
Brachiator
There was something similar one year on the California ballot that led me to vote in person. It was easier than deciphering the instructions.
I signed up for something one year, I forget what, so I get very good email reminders about voting, including mail deadlines and early voting hours and locations.
The one thing that bothers me is that the death of newspapers has severely reduced informed political information. Even a couple of now defunct free weeklies had some good political writing and gave reasons for their endorsements. While I know who I am voting for in major races, I don’t have enough information for some nonpartisan offices and the judges.
A couple of newspapers used to provide a break in their pay walls for voter guides, but stopped doing this. I considered subscribing to one paper, but looking ahead, stopping service seemed to be a bizarre process.
Biased press and dying press, both bad for democracy.
Kelly
The biggest news from the Oregon primary is progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner beat blue dog incumbent Kurt Schrader in CD5. Decisive 55/45 win. Biden and Pelosi supported Schrader even though he has been a pain in their asses. 14,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in CD 5 a rather encouraging number for the general election. Republican opponent Lori Chavez-DeRemer closed the primary arguing she’s the real Trump supporter (2020 election was stolen from Trump, etc.) while nearest R opponent Crumpacker is a squish on Trump. Chavez-DeRemer is thrilled at the likely demise of Roe v Wade.
In our new CD 6 veteran politician Andrea Salinas defeated incredibly well financed newcomer Carrick Flynn. Salinas was Representative in the Oregon Legislature since 2017 and a legislative aide for Senator Harry Reid, Congressman Pete Stark, and Congresswoman Darlene Hooley before that. Flynn had never held office but has an out of state billionaire that dumped $10,000,000 of so of couch change into the race. Inexplicably a Nancy Pelosi PAC also backed Flynn with over $900,000.
Big Money lost to Community Organizing in both races.
In the Governor’s race long time Democratic legislator Betsy Johnson has announced an independent run backed by Oregon’s home grown billionaire Phil Knight (Nike). If there was a Blue Dog caucus in the Leg she’d be in it. Bloviated about the futility of laws against assault rifles a few days after the Uvalde, Texas, school massacre. 100% NRA rating. Seems more likely to split the R vote than the D’s.
Former Oregon House Speaker Tina Kotek should win the Governor’s seat easily.
Full on QANON crazy Jo Ray Perkins has won the R senate Primary for the second election in a row. She drew 40% against Merkley in 2020. Probably get the same against Wyden. The remaining Republicans in Oregon have been distilled down to the pure vile essence.
Roger Moore
@jonas:
The biggest candidate is the former Long Beach chief of police, who seems to have a record of genuine reform in that role. The LASD definitely needs a reformer.
Betty Cracker
@Andrew Abshier: The steady stream of new Republican retirees in The Villages has made it an uphill climb for Dems for years, but I’m not sure the recent influx of non-retirees is necessarily overwhelmingly Republican.
Maybe they are, but it seems like a lot of newcomers are families and young folks looking for cheap housing (which there used to be until recently) and a beachy lifestyle when the pandemic untethered them from jobs in other states. My hope is these new residents will take a look at DeSantis’s Mississippi-Republican-like policies and rhetoric and say, “Oh hell nah.”
Wapiti
Regarding the signatures on ballots: my training is that whenever you sign something, you date it, unless the date in already printed on a letter, for example, and is correct. However – in WA State, the date on the outside of the envelope is used to determine when the ballot was mailed if the postmark is missing or illegible. If the ballots are received in time, :shrug:. But Republican operative Alito needs to get his hands into this, I guess.
MattF
I arranged over the intertubes to get my vote-by-mail ballots for the primary and November elections entirely uneventfully. Maryland and Montgomery County have been sending me emails documenting how well the skids are greased and offering confirmation at the official registration-and-voting website that it’s all cool. I expect to be voting for Jamie Raskin (…duh…) and Tom Perez (for governor) as many times as I can.
CaseyL
Considering that: every GOP accusation is a confession, 99.9% of confirmed vote fraud cases are committed by the GOP, and that DeSantis will have his “election police” in place by November, the odds of Crist, Fried, or any Democrat ever winning a statewide race in Florida ever again are between Slim and None.
My Mom lives there. My friend-from-childhood lives there. My Aunt is moving there. I fear for them all the time. Florida has never been what you’d call civilized, but it now combines the worst of Latin American corruption and violence with MAGAT deliberately malign governance.
ian
In my neck of the woods- Good news: election ‘reform bill’ that would have let legislature override voters defeated in committee- Bad News: My state hasn’t voted D since 1964, with our last D congresscritter in 1979.
Question for Floridians: why is DeSantis so popular? Everything I hear about him is negative, is the perception different in Florida? The peeps in this thread said DeSantis is up 12%, while TFG only won Florida in 2020 by 3.5%. Who are these Biden voters that DeSantis is presumably winning over?
Geminid
@Kelly: Kurt Schrader is no loss. McLeod-Skinner seems like a solid candidate. I saw Mr. Wasserman said his rating outfit would change the district from “lean D” to “tossup,” if Schrader lost, but that seemed based more on a narrative then on data.
oatler
https://www.joemygod.com/2022/06/qanon-az-rep-calls-for-ballot-drop-box-vigilantes/
mali muso
@Geminid: I’m pretty pissed…I got redistricted out of VA-10 (represented by the awesome Jennifer Wexton) into VA-06 (Ben Cline, don’t know anything about him but he’s an R so therefore, no bueno).
oatler
@Kelly:
What’s Art Robinson been up to these days? In his Urine Analysis Lab? When I lived in southern OR the backroads were filthy with big metal Robinson signs. And it’s this local “warlord” they give their allegiance (and piss) to.
Major Major Major Major
Lol. That election is such a shit-show–and the district is a comical gerrymander to boot. All of lower Manhattan and a bunch of rich parts of Brooklyn. Well, at least they have money in common.
Jinchi
I have the same concern. Crist has proven he can lose statewide. Twice.
Is there any passion for the guy in the state? Did he outperform Democrats (like Biden) in his own congressional district? Why is he leaving Congress in a potentially tough year?
If he doesn’t perform better than average, why aren’t the Democrats pushing someone who can?
Geminid
@mali muso: I am sorry for your loss. I lucked out in redistricting; Greene County is in the 5th CD now, and the odious Bob Good will be my Representative until next January.
Ben Cline took over the 6th CD seat when Bob Goodlatte retired in 2018. Cline is a typical Shenandoah Valley Republican: conservative, but not feral.
Steeplejack
@ian:
What is your state, if revealing it doesn’t compromise your “secure location”?
Major Major Major Major
@hells littlest angel: Haha. And that’s if we’re lucky. They might go the Kavanaugh route and say that state courts can’t opine on election matters.
Kelly
@Geminid: I’m feeling much more confident Jamie can hold CD 5. I doubt there are many crossover voters around here anymore. The wild card is as of this year Oregon has more unaffiliated voters than Democrats. Way more Democrats than Republicans. Registrations are Unaffiliated neck and neck with Democrats, Republicans a distant and fading third. Unaffiliated voters tend to break for Democrats if they vote at all so the 14,000 Democratic voter edge should hold up.
@oatler: Art is comfortably ensconced in the Oregon Senate where I imagine he will remain until the end of his days.
Betty Cracker
@ian: I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in that poll; DeSantis is certainly favored to win right now, but if he does — God forbid! — it will probably be relatively tight like most statewide elections here. Republicans are wildly enthusiastic about the sumbitch because of his culture war bullshit and lib-owning, which he didn’t do right out of the gate. He was a wingnut all along, of course, but the really batshit stuff didn’t start in earnest until the pandemic, when he sensed an opportunity to out-Trump Trump. I’ve got to believe that being so nasty and partisan has cost him support from the middle, but maybe that’s wishful thinking on my part.
Geminid
@Kelly: There are a lot of Unaffiliated voters out west. Many of them tend to be in the center politically, but one thing Democrats have going for them is that Republicans are ceding the center. Karl Rove dreamed of constructing an enduring majority around a “center-right” party, but Republicans now seem determined to win with a “right” party, and I do not believe that is a viable path in purple districts or states.
Roger Moore
@gvg:
And anyone who says they think it’s a good idea either believes in it, is a grifter, or is catering to true believers.
cain
@Betty Cracker:
The new retirees are getting more and more closer to my age. (duh)
I was just thinking that these 65+ people are about ten years older than me, that means they were all listening to hip hop, duran duran, and all that. I feel like culturally closer to Gen X, Gen Y than the 70 and 80 year olds.
Sometimes that blows my mind since I always think of old people as a bunch of folks whose idea of a good time is to watch Laurence Welk.
Old Man Shadow
Crist really does seem like a mayonnaise sandwich with white bread.
Doesn’t seem like he’s got the killer instinct that one will need to take down DeSantis.
Baud
@cain:
Ruckus
@dmsilev:
Hopefully the incumbent sheriff gets turfed out; he’s been an absolute disaster.
That’s about the nicest thing anyone has said about him. Ever.
eclare
@cain: I remember telling someone that I go to the grocery store early in the morning, when it’s just a bunch of little old ladies wearing masks with shopping lists handwritten on the backs of old envelopes.
Then I realized, I’m that person!
Ruckus
@cain:
Sometimes that blows my mind since I always think of old people as a bunch of folks whose idea of a good time is to watch Laurence Welk.
I beg your pardon?
Laurence Welk?
He was an old fart when you were still in short pants, you whippersnapper.
oatler
@cain:
Those geezers are watching “Stranger Things” and (they have testified on AV Club comments) have screamed in ecstasy when a shoe brand they remember is referenced on the show. Everyone has a bag, it’s said.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
They treat rights as something that have meaning only on paper and not in the real world.
They treat rights as something for them and not for thee.
Kelly
Gutted
“She died upholding the Girl Scout Promise. For that, one final badge.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/06/01/girl-scouts-award-uvalde-victim/
PJ
@Major Major Major Major: I live in the new NY10, and I wish I had some of that money. My recollection is that you’re a newcomer to the city, and may not be so familiar with neighborhoods outside of your own, but this new district includes at least three housing projects, and middle and working class neighborhoods in Red Hook, Sunset Park, Borough Park, Windsor Terrace, Chinatown, and Alphabet City.
Jo Anne Simon, my current Assembly Member, is considering running, and if she does, I will vote for her because I know she knows the neighborhood and the issues affecting it.
If she doesn’t run, of the other candidates, De Blasio is a hard no. Mondaire Jones is also a hard no, because, while I understand that a representative will probably be spending as much or more time in DC as at their home, I want a representative who actually lives in my district and is aware of the issues affecting it, rather than someone who lives way out in Rockland County and may have never set foot in Brooklyn for all I know. Of the rest, Dan Goldman is the only one I know by name, so I guess at this stage he would be the default for me, but I’m willing to hear everyone’s pitches.
JMS
Balloon juice went kaboom right before the PA primary, which was a hardship. It’s funny that we still don’t know who Fetterman will face (though it’s almost certainly Oz even with the ballot date lawsuit thing)
Scary data point is that more Republicans voted in the senate primary than Dems. The Dem race was pretty lopsided but not uncontested. We’ll need Dem turnout plus independents to pull this off. Fetterman’s stroke didn’t help. I hope he can put in an appearance before too long to show he’s in some kind of fighting shape. The recount has bought some time, but otherwise I would have expected him to be campaigning already.
RaflW
Bill de Blasio running is the sort of thing that just makes me want to hurl. There really are people who decide they cannot hack it in the world of ordinary work, and seem utterly rudderless, so “hey, I’ll run for a different office.”
I hope he gets his ass handed to him on a shipped, ugly melamine platter.
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
Very little press has ever been non biased. The owner/senior editor sets the tone and pays the writers. And fires the ones that don’t meet their standards, no matter how lame, ignorant, biased those standards are. In my mind we have to get past the view that the press is supposed to be unbiased because that ship sailed many, many moons ago. Possibly when stone tablets were still being used. It’s just a bit more obvious now.
WaterGirl
If only we had a crystal ball.
Betty Cracker
@Kelly: Just horrible.
gene108
@Roger Moore:
I don’t remember where I read it, but I read a critique of Supreme Court decisions from the late 19th century until FDR reshaped the courts and the critique basically states what you have just said.
The Supreme Court never factored real world implications of how their laws would impact people. They just treated cases as theoretical academic questions, which allowed powerful people to get favorable rulings that led to the great inequalities of that era.
ian
@Steeplejack: Wyoming
Major Major Major Major
@PJ: I’m aware of the neighborhoods in this district (lived here for four years and for what I don’t know it’s not hard to read a map and google things), but the only unifying theme I can see is that it includes a massive concentration of wealth rivaled only by the new unified upper east and upper west side district.
Better than the old NY-10 though, which cracked a bunch of ethnic neighborhoods.
Baud
@gene108:
Eh, I think the Court knew who it was helping, then and now.
rikyrah
Change happens![]()
![]()
Brandon (@BrandonPinSF) tweeted at 2:43 PM on Tue, May 31, 2022:
I love listening to @PressSec give briefings. Guys, we have a Black gay press sec, a Black woman VP, a Black woman headed for the Supreme Court, the most diverse cabinet in history, a Black US UN ambassador
Not everything is dark & terrible. Let’s remember to celebrate the wins
(https://twitter.com/BrandonPinSF/status/1531723175670579200?t=qaqcnMh5KARUx9HX2IvlPQ&s=03)
Baud
@rikyrah:
gene108
@ian:
My uneducated guess is by playing so hard to the right-wing base, DeSantis has driven up their enthusiasm to see him re-elected more so than any Democratic candidates generate enough enthusiasm to unseat him.
Winning elections is entirely about turning out your voters and I think DeSantis has given Republican voters reasons to vote for him.
MisterForkbeard
@Wapiti:
Super weird that Alito is inserting himself in such a way that both helps Trump’s chosen candidate AND has the potential to hurt Dems more in general races, isn’t it? Just a huge coincidence.
Major Major Major Major
@Geminid: it’s hard to say who’s “ceding the center”, it depends on the axis. Dems have moved way left economically and on racial justice and lgbt stuff since I’ve been paying attention, GOP has stayed mostly still on those, but they’ve moved way right on “should democracy exist”. Their Econ views are changing a little too, Trump flipped them on trade. On moral panics they’ve simply repackaged the old ones. So they were always sorta right wing extremists, but the American center has long been defined against that pole. Which axes do voters looking for the center look at? I dunno!
Baud
@Major Major Major Major:
Agree. I think people are in a bubble when they continue to portray Dems as a whole as centrist.
Another Scott
Louise Lucas is holding the Blue Wall together in the Virginia Senate. She’s a bit of a happy warrior and has a great Twitter game. She loves getting under Youngkin’s skin.
https://twitter.com/SenLouiseLucas
She points us to a bit of a viral clip from her daughter LLBurke2 in Portsmouth.
Youngkin’s social media people are horrible and incompetent.
Democrats bringing passion to the race is a good thing.
I’m especially skeptical of polls these days – too many of them are manipulative, and whatever the results are shouldn’t affect what advocates do to turn out their voters, but they often do. Just keep pushing forward – making sure our candidates have the resources they need, make sure they’re out meeting voters and pushing their agendas (rather than being reactive), and understanding that it’s always a process. They might not win this time, but they should do their best to move the ball forward.
Good luck BC and all of us.
Cheers,
Scott.
HinTN
Welp, here in dead red Franklin County most of the Democrats are too scared to be tarred by that brush and are running as independents. I fear that means they’ll split the vote in the general, thereby assuring what is probably a foregone conclusion anyway. We do, however, have a decent young candidate for the State Representative slot who’s not afraid of the label. I don’t even know who’s running against the ever odious Rep. DesJarlais in the 4th. Sigh
Hey – it remembered me this time. Baby steps…
HinTN
@ian: Do you think Cheney will win as an Independent?
Major Major Major Major
@gene108:
This conventional wisdom is almost old enough to drive, but more recent scholarship has shown that there are still swing voters! Maybe 5-10%, so less than there used to be, but still enough to be very important.
RaflW
@gene108: I think it was then – it sure is now – that the Court sought legal answers that privileged the already powerful, and dressed them up as if they were abstract, dry legal concepts and arguments.
The higher courts have always been political. Maybe not always strictly partisan, though often that, too. But the whole “we’re legal scholars floating above the fray” has always been claptrap. Even when the cases have been decided how we want.
PJ
@Major Major Major Major: In the central part of New York City (basically Manhattan, western Queens, and western Brooklyn) it would be difficult to create a district that did not include a lot of wealth without resorting to the art splatter patterns of previous districting. As the the outer boroughs become more gentrified, that trend is only going to increase. The years of wealthy people only living on the Upper West and East Sides and in Brooklyn Heights are long gone.
kalakal
@cain: Arguments about music these days amongst retirees is more likely to be like this
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/71353975320349680/
RaflW
BTW, good news in MN: A former media personality (who I was unaware of because talk radio, what?) who thought he could be a bang-up ‘centrist’ independent for governor has closed up shop. Phew!
When we’ve had third party runs, we’ve either gotten Republican governors (notably, that T-paw dickhead), or, yeah, that one time we got the glass-jawed pro wrestler. The ‘centrist’ thing in MN at least always pulls more votes from Dems. Bah!
pacem appellant
@dmsilev: Norcal is pretty much the same. No decent Dem is primarying Ro Khanna, so it looks like another two years of a milquetoast dem in CA-17.
At the state level, I am curious if it’s Glazer or Cohen who comes out ahead in the Controller race. I like both, and it’ll come down to one of those shitty top-two primaries if they both edge out whatever fodder the CA-GQP is putting up for slaughter.
kindness
Out here in red California Republicans are running on swagger alone. No actual policy proposals other than to thwart & kneecap ‘liberals’. I don’t believe that marketing will help them honestly.
lowtechcyclist
@Roger Moore: Nah, nothing even that advanced. Right now, they’re more like the MPs in the brothel in Rome near the end of Catch-22:
That’s about where the Bogus Scotus is right now. Say what you want about the tenets of first-century C.E. Pharisaism, at least it was an ethos.
I’m thinking this might be as good as it gets as an opportunity for a state to tell the Supreme Court to go to hell. How many divisions does Pope Alito have?
I’m not sure I want to open up that can of worms either, but ISTM that either the Dems commit to the ‘fight for 15’ or that’s ultimately where it’s going to go, out of sheer necessity.
pacem appellant
@kindness: I can’t see it hurting them, either. GQP is running fine on fumes and hate.
raven
@lowtechcyclist: Me and Ralph the dog fishing on the rocks on the bay where they filmed Catch 22 in 1972!
Damn, that’s 50 years ago . . .
gene108
@Betty Cracker:
I’ll never understand what motivates some people to vote in some elections and sit out others, but I have a feeling enthusiasm for prospective candidates will be a big issue.
kalakal
@Betty Cracker: I really hope you’re right
I know here in Pinellas the local dems are heavily for Crist, name recognition seems to be a big factor.
I’ m not so sure myself but let’s hope they’re right
Paul in KY
@Kelly: Tears in my eyes. What a hero!
eclare
@HinTN: Gawd…DesJarlais. His continued support still stuns me.
Bobby Thomson
Call me crazy, but someone who managed to lose both to Mark Blond and Rick Scott doesn’t seem very popular to Floridians.
J R in WV
@Kelly:
Wow… that was hard to read, can’t imagine how hard it was to write.
surfk9
@pacem appellant:
Cohen spoke to our Democratic Central Committee. She is a full on ball of fire. If she wins I see the potential for higher office
eclare
@raven: What a great photo!
The tempus does fugit.
Kelly
Heading out for a quiet walk in the green, soft forest.
Major Major Major Major
@PJ: Fair!
I’m in NY-12, and the complaints by UWS/UES people about unification are hilarious. They think they live in different universes. But the old NY-12, featuring the UES and Greenpoint, totally the same universe…
I assume redistricting always causes a lot of grumbling though. I don’t remember everybody complaining this much in the bay area ten years ago, but maybe the districts didn’t shift much.
pacem appellant
@surfk9: That makes me feel better that I voted for her. But I admit it was a tough call.
Steeplejack
@eclare:
ian
@HinTN: I was unaware she was going that route. Wyo’s primary/caucus hybrid (it depends on county) is at the end of June, if my memory serves. She is against Harriet Hageman, who is Trump endorsed, in the Rep primary. My 2 cents is that Cheney will win the primary. I can’t speak for her general election plans if she loses the primary
Steeplejack
@ian:
Thanks. Helps put things in perspective.
Geminid
@Major Major Major Major: When I look at Democratic Representatives and Senators, I see a center-left coalition. There are as many “moderates” as there are “liberals,” and the two wings share a whole lot of common ground. I don’t think they’ve moved “way left” on economic issues, and I think polling on the individual proposals in the BBB package show this. As for cultural issues like LGBTQ+ matters, the country has moved left on these issues and the Democratic party has moved with it. Democratic proposals for gun safety are not “left,” but rather are supported by consistently large majorities.
The Republican party, on the other hand, is on the wrong side of public opinion on gun safety, LGBTQ+ issues, combating climate change, social programs like universal pre-K and family leave, and reproductive freedom.
When it comes to electoral politics, the Republicans have hounded out their last few moderates, and their radical wing wants to go on and purge the moderate conservatives they call “RINOs.” But the ideological, left vs. center conflict in the Democratic party has if anything subsided over the last couple years, and there is more of a pragmatic consensus now than existed 2016 to 2020.
So I think the Republican party has ceded the center and the Democratic party has not. Don’t get me wrong; I’m not saying the party should move to the center to get those voters. But as long as there is a healthy balance and respect between the party’s liberal and moderate wings, I think moderate voters will choose Democratic candidates of either wing over radical Republicans, or even the more standard conservative types.
Matt McIrvin
@Geminid: Right now the important split in the Democratic Party is between almost the entire party, and its two most right-wing Senators.
PJ
@Major Major Major Major: Well, looking at it from their perspective, how much in common do the families who accumulated the bulk of their wealth in the 19th century (UES) have to do with the families who accumulated the bulk of their wealth in the 20th and 21st centuries (UWS)? I bet they don’t even belong to the same social clubs, or vacation on the same islands. It’s a scandal to put them in the same district!
I totally understand the outrage that certain groups had for breaking up what had been majority minority districts, but my main beef with the new court-certified redistricting is that it benefits Republicans while ostensibly being non-partisan.
Ben Cisco
Well, Alabama’s primary was late last month, and on the Dem side:
Governor: Yolanda Rochelle Flowers — 31.1% – Malika Sanders Fortier — 32.88%
US Senate: Will Boyd — 63.96%
For the GQP:
Governor – Kay Ivey — 55.04% (and folks, as nuts as she has been during the campaign, this was BY FAR the best outcome possible)
US Senate: Katie Britt — 45.26% (lawyer by trade, I have family that knows – and is deeply disappointed by her turn to the dark side). Beat Mo Brooks by nearly 20 points.
Early indications are that the fascists win in a walk, but we’ll see.
Steeplejack
@Baud:
I think maybe the “center” itself has been moving left, unless we’re defining “centrist” merely as halfway between the Democratic and Republican poles. But if “centrist” refers to issues, I think that is definitely moving left, albeit slowly.
JoyceH
@gene108:
But isn’t that also giving Democratic voters reasons to vote against him? I passionately want to vote against him, whoever the Democratic nominee is, and I don’t even live there!
oatler
Sign ‘o the times that Dems follow GOP elections hoping the less nutty one will win.
Nelle
Iowa Senate primary: Three candidates. Glenn Hurst, the most progressive, is the one I would gravitate to if I was just voting what I want. He is a rural Iowa doctor and I don’t think he has a chance, in the primary or the general. And I’m all about the general, because 89 y.o. Grassley thinks the Senate seat belongs to his family and if he doesn’t serve his term out, I suspect he knows that the R guv will appoint his grandson, now Speaker of the Iowa House. Anyway, Hurst keeps the conversation grounded – he’s a good speaker.
Abby Finkenauer is a 33 y.o who won a Congressional seat in 2018 (when her savings were $12 thousand) and lost it in 2020. I can’t find that she has had a job since that loss, but her assets are now reported as between $1 and $2 million. I would make a stink but she may be the primary winner so I don’t need to hand the R’s ammunition on a platter. She came out early and scooped up a lot of endorsements, but lost a hell of a lot of good will when she was taken off the ballot when some of the names on the ballots were challenged and deemed not meeting requirements. The thing is, all candidates are required to have 100 signatures from at least 19 counties. Who doesn’t bank in enough signatures, in case some failed. I think she had exactly 100 or 102 signatures in some. That is a basic executive functioning error, in my book. Why didn’t she build a margin for error, as every other candidate did. Then she went to court over it, lost, and threw a Trumpian fit, accusing the judge of partisan bias. Whoa, that upset a lot of people (including my neighbor, who is a judge and said there were many rumblings in the courthouse). She appealed that to the Iowa Supreme Court and got put back on the ballot, but there are oh so many editorials against her. She comes across to me as an immature blowhard and I hope she doesn’t win the primary. Grassley will carve her up.
Mike Franken is the third candidate, a retired vice-admiral. As opposed to Finkenauer, he is taking very strong positions on women’s rights and immigration. He retired from the Navy rather than serve under Trump. He’s a northwest Iowa boy but is being attacked as a carpetbagger because he was out of the state for 40 plus years (the length of his service in the Navy. Hard to serve in the Navy in Iowa). His big point is that he is the one who can beat Grassley in November and I think he’s hit a nerve as Grassley has just done a million dollar ad buy and is hitting Franken hard (the primary is next Tuesday). If I were an R, I would want Finkenauer because she would be an easier target (wonder if the Iowa Supreme Court thought so too, in reinstating her on the ballot!).
Right now, polling has them even. Oh, and A Vindman has endorsed Franken. That is a big endorsement.
And most of all, Mike in NC served with Franken and recommends him. Feel free to send Franken a little last minute moolah.
We were served very poorly by Schumer, et. al., in 2020 when they backed a poor candidate in Theresa Greenfield vs Joni Ernst (R, representing the NRA and not a combat veteran, despite her bragging). Just as we were served poorly when they shoveled Al Franken out of the Senate. I wish they would stay out until after the primary.
Anyway, I’d like to get a Franken in the Senate again.
Betty Cracker
@Ben Cisco: I didn’t realize Britt walloped Brooks that badly. Ha! They both suck, but I love to see Trumpsters hoist with their own petards.
Re: Ivey, I hear you on a horrid incumbent being preferable to an uber-feral challenger. My US House district has been repped for ages by a corrupt, bible-humping poltroon whom I am now praying wins his primary because his challenger is Laura Loomer, the Elvira-lookalike nut who was banned by CPAC for her lunacy, which is akin to being expelled from al Qaeda for zealotry. But if she wins the primary, she’ll win the election. Anyone with an R after their name will in this district.
Mai Naem mobile
In Cook Political Reports ratings my Rep Greg Stanton went from Dem to lean Dem which is kind of worrying because we’ve got another 2 other Dem seats that are more worrying. Statewide, the one election that worries me the most is the SOS which on the GOP side has Shawnna Bolick who is the wife of AZ SC Justice Clint Bolick(Koch guy,Thomas clerk)who are personal friends with Ginnie and Clarence Thomas…connect the dots there. Also Steve Gaynor a wanna be know-it-all because he’s a successful biznezman and Mark Finchem who I believe is the love child of John Durham and Andy Biggs. Likely Dem opponent is Adrian Fontes the Maricopa County recorder who was incompetent at ‘cheating’ that he lost his own election in 2020.
Soprano2
@Betty Cracker: It’s like the Senate race here in MO. As bad as Blunt is, he’s preferable to anyone running on the R side this cycle. They’re all trying to “out-TFG” each other. If Greitens wins the primary the Democratic candidate has an extremely small chance to win; if anyone else wins it, I doubt the Dem can get enough votes statewide to win. The shrinkage of St. Louis especially hurt Democrats in Missouri over the past 20 years.
Baud
@Steeplejack:
I don’t disagree. But if the Dems are moving left along with the center, then people in the past who were center now may feel more in line with the GOP because the Dems have shifted.
Mike in NC
I get 4 or 5 emails from the Franken campaign per day, and I don’t find them overbearing. Read them and delete and I dropped $25 through ActBlue last night. Grassley has got to go!
Martin
@Major Major Major Major: UES doesn’t want to have to compete for who they buy. Greenpoint couldn’t keep up in that bidding war, but UWS sure will be able to.
Ben Cisco
@Betty Cracker: Yup. My ballot didn’t even fill one side of the page b/c so many of the races had no Dem candidate running.
Britt has three things working in her favor from what I’ve been able to determine: 1) somewhat easy on the eyes if that’s your bag, 2) travels extensively – she’s even been to my home county of less than 13,000 people, 3) a red meat machine – Biden, socialism, CRT, and gunz.
Fun thing about Brooks – oppo ads run against him here featured the few times he called out Trump for his , meaning that he got hung out to dry for the 2.5 seconds he spent telling the truth. Not much as victories go…
Betty Cracker
@Soprano2: I wonder if anyone has done a study on the influence of cities on state political outcomes, specifically, when they approach a population tipping point. I keep hoping we’ll reach that tipping point in FL…
Martin
@Baud: I doubt it. It’s not like it’s some analogue measure of top marginal tax rates that now that the GOP is at 20% and the left demands 50% that the folks most comfortable at 30% slide right.
There really is no such thing as a middle. Either you’re a white christian nationalist or you aren’t. The GOP is making it very clear who they don’t want.
Betty Cracker
@Ben Cisco: Ha! Two Alabama MAGA dopes — Brooks and Sessions — learned that loyalty to TFG is a one-way street.
Nelle
@Mike in NC: I’m environmentally responsible! I saved my Franken sign (say it fast and see if you can keep from saying Frankenstein) from 2020 and have it up in my yard. Yes, he is asking a lot for money but I can ignore them (they bug my neighbor and yet she keeps shoving money his way, so they are working). He’s spending a lot. As Al Franken said, the lesson learned is that you have to spend big bucks. And this time, Mike Franken isn’t being shy about doing so. Great TV ads too.
debbie
If this doesn’t rip your heart out, nothing will.
Baud
@Martin:
The GOP can’t win with white Christian nationalists alone. And they don’t.
rikyrah
Percy Hopweather (@PercyHopweather) tweeted at 3:37 PM on Tue, May 31, 2022:
It was *never* about “Medicare for All.”
It was *never* about a “Green New Deal.”
It was *never* about “fighting for people we don’t know!”
It was *always* about blackmailing marginalized people with the threat of white nationalism:
To get their #%&@ing student debt canceled.
(https://twitter.com/PercyHopweather/status/1531736549167079426?t=F7b6Dt6eB-RjQaPXfZykcQ&s=03)
cain
@oatler: haha! I was teling my step kids that the first season was literally my childhood (and given that it was in Indiana, where I grew up, doubly so) riding around in bikes going to the arcade. I think I definitely had “old geezer” already stamped on me.
Of course, there was no ‘remote control’ we were the remote control! lol
cain
@gene108: So in essence – “He’s owning the libs! while owning our pocket books!”
Major Major Major Major
@Geminid:
I’m so old I remember the 2009 stimulus debate! The constant attempts at an austerity grand bargain, an Obama NLRB that was tepid on labor… the last few years’ worth of economic bills make 2009-11 look like republicans were in charge, and the early Clinton years look like even worse republicans were in charge. Plus however you want to code the collapse of TPP which even Hillary opposed by the end of the election.
Martin
@JMS: Turnout in primaries has a lot to do with how contested they seem. We saw this in 2020 with a lot of Dems sitting out the primary because they had already decided they’d vote for Goebbels rather than Trump, so they didn’t really have a lot invested in who the candidate was. And Dems really turned out in the general.
cain
@kalakal: Hmm.. no Guns and Roses? Pfah. At least, Ted Nugent isn’t in there.
rikyrah
I was thinking about going to vote today. The heat has broken. The site is two blocks from me.
topclimber
One mo time! You are right or more precisely correct yet again.
This is my third attempt to compliment you. Enough already!
TinRoofRusted
@PJ: Mondaire Jones is my current rep and I am very mad that Maloney decided to run against him in our new district. Mondaire is a great Rep, he takes care of his constituents. He is also the son of a Haitian immigrant single mother and was raised in Spring Valley which for Rockland is a very diverse village. Anyway, any district would be lucky to have him. I just wish it was still mine.
topclimber
@Baud: only if they are racist or sexist or simply stupid. A formidable group for sure.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Ruckus:
I don’t agree. We need the press to make an effort to report the facts objectively. When we just say everything is biased, people through up their hands and only tune into what they agree with. That is problematic.
Baud
@topclimber:
Good chance of that. The Dems used to have a lot of those people.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Geminid: I don’t agree. The Democratic party is absolutely to the left of the public on support for trans rights. The Democratic party is taking the correct position, but it is not a popular one. The public has moved quite left on gay marriage, but it is shifting back a little bit.
Major Major Major Major
@topclimber: right—we need a majority.
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: this is also very true, and not limited to trans issues.
cain
@WaterGirl: Tech people aren’t big union people. I think it’s because of a streak of libertarianism – but even I get a little annoyed when I have to go find a union person to put a plug into a socket at a conference enter. Sometimes I wonder why even they would want to be distracted by such things.
That said, it kind of makes sense – electrical have a certain set of limits and you can’t just have anybody plugging shit in and possibly causing an issue.
Betty Cracker
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Yep, and Republicans know it and are exploiting it ruthlessly. I was reading an account of TFG’s recent rally, and the reporter said he’d sort of lost the crowd with his list of 2020 grievances, and people were filing out of the venue. But then Trump started bellowing about “the transgenders” and the rallygoers stopped and cheered.
The party is ahead of the people on this one, and I agree with you that the party is right. I’m not at all sure how to thread that needle with voters. Maybe point out that we’re talking about a small, vulnerable minority, note that the contentious issues that politicians can affect mostly involve children and should be left up to parents, doctors and schools. It doesn’t help anyone when a Ron DeSantis or Greg Abbott butts in.
Geminid
@Major Major Major Major: Oh, I would concede that Democrats have moved left since 2009. But “way left?” I don’t think so, and I think this is born out by the composition of their House and Senate caucuses.
There is a difference in framing here. I took your assertion that Democrats have moved way left as saying the current policies are well to the left of the political center, and I don’t think they are. Anyway, I was originally talking about how Republicans have ceded the political center, and the Democrats have not. I think this is pretty obvious, too.
Ben Cisco
@Betty Cracker: I guarantee you the GQP has.
Geminid
@Major Major Major Major: But I repeat myself.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: A couple Republican governor candidates in Pennsylvania who were long time Trump supporters learned that lesson when Trump endorsed Mastriano. They were pretty hot about it, and said so publically.
Trump’s endorsements of Mastriano and Oz left hard feelings among Republicans in Pennsylvania. And Ohio Republicans resented Trump’s endorsement of Vance. It wasn’t just the office holders and officials; both Vance and Oz got less than 33% of the primary vote.
Geminid
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: I’m not sure the party is to the left of the public on trans issues. You would have a better feel for public opinion on this matter than I do, but while it’s an issue that conservatives like to demagogue I haven’t seen that work beyond their own base. At least, I haven’t seen it happen in Virginia.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
Well sure, anytime you say “Major Major Major Major” you repeat yourself quite a bit!
lowtechcyclist
@raven:
I’ve read the book probably a dozen or so times over the years, but I’ve never seen the movie, believe it or not. Maybe I should, though.
When I really love a book, I’m always afraid the movie will screw it up, and that’s usually the way it happens, AFAIAC. But at this point, if it turned out to be horrible, I think I’d just shrug and forget about it.
And yeah, 1972 was a long, long time ago, I can still remember how that music used to make me smile…
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Geminid: The public does support trans people serving in the military, but on the issues Republican’s demagogue like sports and bathrooms? I’m afraid that big chunk of Democrats align more with the Republican position on this than our party. I’d observed that anecdotally as people are less afraid to express their discomfort about these issues with me than they would some of my more outspoken friends. The polls back that too. Here’s an example.
GoBlueInOak
@Major Major Major Major: Plus, its also possible polling has gotten less accurate and painting a more polarized picture of the electorate as willingness to respond to polling by less engaged, less polarized/partisan voters has increasingly declined:
https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-much-are-polls-misrepresenting-americans/
Another Scott
@Nelle: Thanks for the reminder about Franken.
Donated.
Fingers crossed!
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill
Nominating Crist is a sure-fire way for getting DeSantis another term as Governor. I am not sure Fried has much of a chance but it is better than Chain Gang Charlie’s.