Well, this is nauseating: [WaPo]
President Biden is planning to visit Saudi Arabia, a remarkable departure from his vow as a presidential candidate to treat the country as a “pariah” state, according to three administration officials who requested anonymity to share details of a trip not yet announced.
The president’s trip to Riyadh follows broader efforts by his administration to build ties with the oil-rich nation to reduce the price of gas in the United States, which has skyrocketed in recent months.
It’s also understandable. Our oil addiction won’t allow us to simultaneously boycott the two major dealers, Russia and Saudi Arabia, at least not without the economy crashing and making it all but certain that homegrown fascists will take over the federal government in a couple of years to lock in one-party rule.
So, realpolitik time. Since we have to embrace one of the two sociopathic dictators to get our fix, bin Salman it is. At least the Saudi ruler hasn’t ordered the mechanized murder of a neighboring population that Americans care about. (Sorry, Yemen.)
It’s all so sordid and gross and depressing.
Open thread.
The Epitaph on This Nation’s Gravestone
HinTN
Thanks, Saint Ronnie. We could have been a far different country but nooooooooooooo.
SpaceUnit
Sometimes realpolitik just means that you’re damned if you do and you’re damned if you don’t.
ian
I was under the impression that Saudi Arabia had agreed to a truce with Yemen in order to start negotiations, and that Biden’s going to Saudi Arabia was a reward for that.
Link
that link is whitehouse.gov
germy shoemangler
The Road to Riyadh
(My least favorite Hope/Crosby movie)
SpaceUnit
Hope someone in the State Department warned him to not put his hand on that big glowing orb.
Another Scott
Biden also wants to get the Iran JCPOA back on track. And talking, about a prepared agenda with sufficient background preparation, is always good. The ceasefire in Yemen just got extended another two months. The last thing the world needs now is Israel, KSA, and others starting a hot war with Iran over their nuclear stuff.
The US produces all the oil it needs now and is a (small) net exporter. This is about reducing pain for Europe and the rest of the world, and preventing new complications.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
trollhattan
Doubts dividing North and South have been with us a long time. Take 1970 for instance, only instead of the US, the UK. Python vibe is very evident throughout, seems like they did not need to look far for their material and inspiration. “They cook everything in a single pot.”
trollhattan
@germy shoemangler: ”You said you packed the bone saw!”
debbie
As long as he doesn’t walk holding hands with MBS…
JPL
@debbie: Just no! The Nancy Reagan stamp during pride month is bad enough.
SiubhanDuinne
@SpaceUnit:
I’m in the midst of bingeing “Madam Secretary” on Netflix. Even though it’s a few years old now, the series is surprisingly relevant and contemporary in terms of Saudi Arabia, Russia-Ukraine, etc.
VeniceRiley
Don’t touch the orb, Joe
PS: Less than 4 weeks to my emigration date. I’m counting down the days.
Betty Cracker
@Another Scott: It’s about avoiding a global recession, and we all better hope it works.
VeniceRiley
Am I in moderation for some reason?
SpaceUnit
@SiubhanDuinne:
I’ll have to give it a look.
Almost Retired
@germy shoemangler: Ah, The Road to Riyadh. I loved that movie. With Dorothy Lamour in a burqa….At least I think that was Dorothy Lamour.
debbie
@JPL:
Whew! I was afraid I was the only one who remembered that sorry incident!
pat
I am afraid I do not know how gas prices rise. All by themselves? Who raises them, who benefits from the increased income, and what would happen if the profiteers just kind of swallowed the losses…
Naive, I know, but someone is benefiting and it ain’t us.
Steeplejack
@germy shoemangler:
germy shoemangler
@Almost Retired:
It was Bert Gordon
lowtechcyclist
@ian:
I’m really hoping that Biden’s team negotiated an agreement for KSA to pump more oil just in return for Biden (a) going there, and (b) being generally uncritical of KSA and MBS.
SiubhanDuinne
@SpaceUnit:
Not the greatest show ever made, but gripping and entertaining. Téa Leoni is wonderful as the Sec of State, with some story arcs coming from her years as a CIA agent in the Middle East. Tim Daly plays her husband, and the chemistry between them is great (unsurprising, as they are partners IRL). Teenage kids, a sumbitch presidential chief of staff, Bebe Neuwirth as her own CoS. I’m enjoying it a lot.
Another Scott
@Betty Cracker: I’ve been struck by so many economists predicting a US recession in the next quarter or few for what seems like a year. I don’t see it at the moment, but it depends on how far overboard the Federal Reserve goes in trying to fight inflation with their “burn the forest down to save it” approach. (Strangling the economy when the issues are temporary is stupid. The US economy is not overheating – it’s simply trying to get back to something like normal after a huge shock.)
There was a step-function increase in oil prices, but they’ve been stable recently. US inflation apparently has peaked and is on the way down. China seems to have mostly succeeded in stamping out Covid waves there, so Chinese parts of the supply chains should start becoming more flexible soon. And the US Covid waves have not been horrible (though infections are still far too high) so far. Even the grain exports from Ukraine and Russia issues can apparently be handled with sensible distribution of existing stocks and production (but it only takes a “small” imbalance to cause big problems).
In short, I don’t expect 6% GDP growth this year, but I don’t expect a recession either. Similarly for most of the rest of the world (though the UK’s self-inflicted Brexit train wreck is continuing – as we knew it would).
But Covid and VVP’s actions in Ukraine again illustrate how fragile the world economy is and how interconnected we all are, so there are no guarantees. And unfortunately oil is still a huge factor in the world economy…
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Sloegin
Well, Kushner and the Nuch went over right at the end of the last administration to make a deal with Mr. Bone Saw to turn the taps off and bring back the insane orange king in ’24, so maybe Joe has some new leverage to get the crude flowing again.
Or not. Pretty sure they have us over a barrel, not the other way around.
Ohio Mom
My feeling is, I helped elect Biden and like most everybody, I hate a micromanaging boss. I delegated responsibility for running the Executive Branch to him and unless he does something really, really, really egregious, I’m sticking with my hiring decision.
This isn’t that bad, all things considered, though it’s always depressing to be reminded how awful parts of this world are.
Redshift
@Another Scott:
As the old joke goes, economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions…
Another Scott
Hands-up – who’s been there??
Cheers,
Scott.
trollhattan
Yay, CDC raised thirteen northern California counties into “high” category for covid this afternoon. Dang, now I have to stop paying attention to Putin. #ShinyBug
zhena gogolia
@Ohio Mom: I feel just like you
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Another Scott:
The way I’ve read it from financial experts and others that follow this, is that the Federal Reserve has little choice but to raise interest rates to fight inflation and should have done so months ago; if they had risen it gradually as inflation increased last year, they wouldn’t have had to raise them as drastically as they’re doing now. It’s the “necessary medicine” to cure high inflation, just like Volcker was forced to do in the late 70s and early 80s. The argument goes that the Fed was far too dovish through the late 60s and the 70s, and didn’t act aggressively enough and quickly enough to avert inflation and stagflation
As you note, inflation has appeared to peak, so the Fed may pause in September
VeniceRiley
@Another Scott: I just pay. Not worth the grief. If people start getting weird, I pick up the whole check. I’m out for fun and don’t want anything to ruin it.
raven
@pat: Dude on Joe this morning said gas prices are wed to use and, as long as use stays high, so will gas prices. I think it’s pretty obvious people are going to travel this summer no matter what. (We are actually looking at renting a class b RV to go our west)
zhena gogolia
@VeniceRiley: me too. I ruined an evening at the Village Gate once arguing about this. Granted, I was a lot poorer then and the food was terrible
kindness
Who knew the president has to make difficult decisions that frequently involve trade offs?
Trump never learned that one. Thank the FSM Biden recognizes it.
Jt
Thank you. That is very good news!
Hilbertsubspace
This is a good time to remind people that Kushner passed American intel on other Saudi royals to MBS allowing him to pull off his palace coup. So, anything he says to MBS, Trump will hear through Kushner.
MBS is “pals” with Putin and wants Trump back. I don’t see how Biden gets anything from him without plausible threats while convincing him Trump isn’t coming back.
Politely, of course. After all, we’re not barbarians.
zhena gogolia
Right @kindness:
Doug R
“Keep your friends close and your enemies closer”
Argiope
Gotta delurk to mention the Ohio state house’s assholery in sneaking an anti-trans kid provision into an unrelated bill & passing it. Anyone whose “gender is disputed” has to submit to an internal and external genitalia exam if they can’t produce a physician’s statement, testosterone levels and genetic testing to prove they are a girl in order to play sports with girls. Apparently anyone can create said dispute. They hate not just women but anyone who isn’t feminine enough presenting for them, plus all the non-binary and trans kids. And since we are in a state constitutional crisis re district maps we can’t vote the fuckers out.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): A growing economy needs some inflation. A overall growing economy is not necessarily the goal of the financial sector. Also, many commentators have a vested interest in conflating temporary price increases due to world events with inflation. Do not accept everything at face value.
prostratedragon
@zhena gogolia: Wow, never occurred to me to eat there, though I think my concern was more that it would be overpriced.
zhena gogolia
@prostratedragon: it was
Another Scott
(I think this has been mentioned here, but ICYMI) Meanwhile, in Utah, you’ll be good to know that he’s not a cannibal.
Thread.
(via soonergrunt)
However, beyond the lols, maybe something important is going on here and he’s being attacked for making waves. KUER.org:
Hmmm….
His bio makes him sound like a reasonably good guy (claims to have helped improve the legal systems in Ukraine and Moldova, etc.).
Maybe pre-emptively denying you’re a cannibal and ritual child sex abuser is the only course of action in such cases?? :-/
Cheers,
Scott.
lowtechcyclist
@Another Scott: Excuse my ignorance, but what’s a ‘starter’ in this context?
Villago Delenda Est
The Bandit House of Saud and their Wahhabi supporters should be treated as pariahs. Saudi Arabia is the theocracy that the wingnuts dream of.
lowtechcyclist
That’s definitely the case. But regardless, our President doesn’t have to go visit there, and it’s something they want. So if we didn’t negotiate something in return for that, I’d be disappointed.
zhena gogolia
@lowtechcyclist: An appetizer.
Another Scott
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): In addition to what OO said, lots of economists hate, hate, hate low interest rates and hate, hate, hate inflation. Even though, as OO says, one needs inflation to 1) keep up with population growth, and 2) make money circulate efficiently (it does the economy no good being stuck in a mattress somewhere).
The Fed is really, really bad at distinguishing between step-function price shocks (like the oil price shocks, and the Covid-supply-chain issues now), and general increasing inflation (the “wage-and-price spiral” from wages being explicitly tied to inflation – something that hasn’t been the case since unions were killed). Strangling the economy and putting people out of work isn’t going to get widgets from China here any faster.
Carter gets vilified and Reagan and Volcker get praise, but it’s not so simple if one looks at other measures. FTFNYT (from October 1984):
As OO says, beware the vested agendas.
Cheers,
Scott.
Villago Delenda Est
@Redshift:
A physicist, an engineer and an economist are stranded in the desert. They are hungry. Suddenly, they find a can of corn. They want to open it, but how?
The physicist says: “Let’s start a fire and place the can inside the flames. It will explode and then we will all be able to eat”.
“Are you crazy?” says the engineer. “All the corn will burn and scatter, and we’ll have nothing. We should use a metal wire, attach it to a base, push it and crack the can open.”
“Both of you are wrong!” states the economist. “Where the hell do we find a metal wire in the desert?! The solution is simple: ASSUME we have a can opener”…
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Argiope:
I still can’t understand why those two federal judges ruled for the state maps that were already found to be unconstitutional by the state Supreme Court. Why couldn’t they have forced the Commission to adopt a map that actually was constitutional? Why wasn’t that the remedy?
Another Scott
@VeniceRiley: My J and I were occasionally in situations as poor post-docs where we’d end up at a table with senior professor types who’d get the fancy entrée and (on their own decide) maybe a bottle or several bottles of wine for the table, and we’d have the $10 spaghetti and water and end up with a $50 share because it was “easier” to divide the check. They just seemed (perhaps unintentionally, perhaps not) oblivious to the problems they were causing.
It never came to blows though! :-)
Cheers,
Scott.
JanieM
@Argiope:
If it didn’t mean advocating the extension of the abusiveness to a great many more girls, many if not most of whom would rather just let other girls play, I’d say make every girl be tested before she can play sports.
You’d think (but no you wouldn’t, given the mind-bogglingly malevolent stupidity of a significant portion of Americans) that the very thought would be enough to stop this nonsense.
In the absence of that non-solution, who has standing to dispute someone’s gender?
Words fail. As they do pretty much every day now.
Ohio Mom
@lowtechcyclist: I think “starter” is one of those examples that the English and Americans speak different languages.
When I was a new mom, I found a Penelope Leach book at a garage sale. Leach might be described as an English Dr. Spock, and the book was full of puzzles. “Should babies sleep with dummies” was a sub chapter heading that made me wonder who was tucking Mortimer Snerd and Howdy Doody into cribs. Turns out a dummy is English for a pacifier.
Balconesfault
How about reversing idiotic policies embargoing Venezuelan and Iranian crude for the duration of Russian occupation of Ukraine?
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Because that’s not how courts work. The case before them was whether the particular map in front of them was Constitutional. That is what they decided. I am pretty sure you would not want the courts to be grabbing more decision making power than they already have.
Geminid
The U.S. may have pushed the Saudis for a while, but that truce in Yemen happened because the two sides finally accepted the fact that neither one could win and it was time to stop wrecking their country. Hopefully it will be renewed.
The Biden administration has accepted the fact Mr. Bone Saw isn’t going anywhere, and that Saudi Arabia is still the most powerful, and the leader, of all the Arab Gulf countries (except Qatar, the Gulf’s maverick). For better or for worse, the U.S. still regards that region’s stability as a vital interest and Saudi Arabia is a cornerstone of our military alliance.
There is a deal being made. I read today that Saudi Arabia announced they are increasing oil production by around 600,000 barrels a day; that’s one part of the deal. Plus there are two little islands in the northern Red Sea that are changing hands; I think Saudi Arabia is giving them back to Egypt, or maybe it’s the other way around. Regardless, Israel had to sign off because there has been a small U.N. peacekeeping force there ever since the 1967 war.
The bigger part of the deal is a new security architecture for the region. Like most Arab nations, Saudi Arabia has never recognized Israel. The two nations’ security people talk plenty, though, and they have for decades. The UAE and Bahrain have established relations with Israel and they, the Saudis and the Israelis are constructing a military alliance under U.S. auspices. Towards that end, the U.S. has shifted Israel from its European Command to the Central Command. The Arab countries who long protested that they would never allow that cad into their club have decided that he isn’t such a bad fellow after all. They want to formalize their tacit anti-Iran alliance.
The Abraham Accords have a bad name because they were finalized by Trump and Netanyahu. But Trump’s influence was negative. Every U.S. president since the Second World War was a reliable ally to these countries, until Trump. Those governments did not need a panel of psychologists to tell them the obvious: Trump was out for Trump alone. And they’ve known for a while that the American people are ambivalent about their far away Middle East allies. But the Gulf Arabs and Israel are going to be living in the same neighborhood indefinitely and they’ve decided to make the most of it.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Omnes Omnibus:
But it wasn’t constitutional, according to the OSC
Geminid
@Balconesfault: The U.S. has been working on that since March. Some of the problems are technical, though. Venezuela’s oil industry is in shambles and won’t produce much more oil for a while
Argiope
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): That’s my understanding as well. Two federal judges overruled the OH state Supreme Court re the maps. I still don’t understand why two federal judges get to override the OH Supremes regarding state election maps. I get that it could have gone from OH Supremes to SCOTUS but it didn’t.
Argiope
@JanieM: I’m hoping that argument may yet hold sway as it moves through to the OH Senate—but at this point nothing those cretins do surprises me.
lowtechcyclist
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Per the Ohio state Constitution, which should be controlling. I don’t think anyone was arguing that it violated the U.S. Constitution.
@Omnes Omnibus:
That’s right, isn’t it? And I’d expect a Federal court to give great deference to a state supreme court’s judgment in interpreting its own state’s constitution, rather than just coming up with some interpretation where they split the hairs slightly differently to come up with a different conclusion.
lowtechcyclist
@Argiope:
I was wondering about that too. Many of us remember how the Florida supreme court’s rulings re the 2000 election got appealed directly to SCOTUS. (Hell, many of us remember Watergate. ;-) ) Why was this different? Any clues, Omnes?
Omnes Omnibus
@lowtechcyclist:
Good explainer here.
sab
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The federal judges who over-ruled the Ohio State Supreme Court were Trump appointees.
Ella in New Mexico
@Argiope: But will this bill get signed by your Gov and is it veto proof?
sab
duplicate
sab
@Omnes Omnibus: @lowtechcyclist:
As I understand it, Federal Court said maps will stand for this election cycle if Ohio Supreme Court didn’t
getforce parties to get something better in place by the end of May so that the scheduled August primary can happen. But the map will only be good for this election cycle, and they’ll all be back in court for 2024. So they don’t get the full four years the Republicans wanted the maps to last much less the ten years usual after a census redistricting.August primary date is because of filing deadlines for the November election.
Drunkenhausfrau
#BastardsoftheUniverse ?
GoBlueInOak
@pat: It’s mostly is the capital financing the domestic oil drillers that have kept domestic production from increasing to meet the demand. They money lost it’s shirt during the prior fracking boom when they financed a ton of production just to have prices fall off a cliff (in part due to OPEC turning in the spigots back then to in part kill US fracking, which with the new extraction technologies of the last 20 years has enabled US domestic production to become an actual net exporter and competitor to OPEC).
So this time around, the money is holding tight, afraid to get over it’s skis in event current high prices don’t stick.
YY_Sima Qian
@Betty Cracker: Don’t place your hopes on politicians & national governments as vehicles for moral advancement, especially in foreign policy. Realpolitik rules, including under the current “liberal” international “order”. Most governments talk a great game, highlighting their supposed moral superiority, but their actions rarely align w/ their words. Best not to take the flowery language too seriously.
lowtechcyclist
@Omnes Omnibus:
Not sure what it explained that we were asking about. It was as if we’d been asking “how did they score those two runs in the bottom of the seventh” and the explainer was a box score showing the ‘2’ for the bottom half of the seventh.
SamIAm
@Omnes Omnibus:
That’s just a time line of events. It explains nothing.