Before we get to President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening, let’s start with the news that the Ukrainian forces began a counterattack in Kherson this morning.
In Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian forces are conducting a counteroffensive in the directions of Kyselivka, Soldatske, and Oleksandrivka. The village of Tavrijske is completely controlled by Ukrainian Armed Forces, says Kherson City Council
Photo: Kherson City Council pic.twitter.com/grRtPdCQNA— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) June 11, 2022
The Ukrainian army in Kherson region is conducting a counterattack in the directions of Kyselivka, Soldatske & Oleksandrivka, Kherson city council reports. Oleksandrivka is the place of my childhood, it’s destroyed. I’m grateful to everyone who helps 🇺🇦 return our lands. Pray 🙏 pic.twitter.com/hnz2ofSv28
— Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) June 11, 2022
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address. Video immediately below followed by English transcript after the jump: (emphasis mine)
I wish health to all Ukrainians and all our friends!
The final phase of the big diplomatic marathon, which is to end in a week and a half, has started today. And in this marathon we are actually together with the European Union – in one team, and this team has to win. I am sure that we will soon receive an answer on the candidate status for Ukraine. I am convinced that this decision can strengthen not only our state, but also the entire European Union.
What else needs to happen in Europe to make it clear to skeptics that the very fact of keeping Ukraine outside the European Union works against Europe? For example, everything is already obvious to the Russian occupiers. They say so when they torment our people that it is allegedly for the fact that Ukraine has gone to Europe. And why does Europe have skeptics then?
We will continue to work even harder at all levels to get the right decision. It is very important for us.
Very fruitful talks with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen were held in Kyiv today. I am pleased to note her sincerity. It is the European Commission that will prepare a conclusion regarding our application. Ukraine provided all the necessary answers in a very short time, and it was done well.
There will be many more equally important and, I hope, fruitful talks with European leaders next week.
I talked to the participants of a very representative security forum in Asia, in Singapore. High level. The event was attended by defense ministers and other high-ranking officials from dozens of countries of the region. We really need this region. And I felt that today my address was heard there, arguments were heard and perceived.
News about the distribution of Russian passports in Kherson and the distribution of passports in Melitopol were actively spread in the occupied territories and in Russia. And I looked at who in this news was shown as Kherson and Melitopol residents who allegedly want Russian passports. A few collaborators and people from their entourage… Well, it looked like not a queue to get a passport, but an attempt to get a ticket to flee. Very demonstrative.
The Ukrainian troops are gradually liberating the territory of the Kherson region. Today the village of Tavriis’ke has been added to the list of returned settlements of our state. There is certain success in the Zaporizhzhia region as well.
Fierce street battles continue in Severodonetsk. I am proud of all our defenders who managed to stop the advance of these hostile people, these occupiers for many weeks already and keep our defense strong.
Do you remember how Russia hoped to capture the entire Donbas in early May? It is already the 108th day of the war, it is already June. Donbas is holding on. The losses suffered by the occupiers, including in this area, are extremely significant. In total, the Russian army today has about 32,000 dead souls. For what? What did it give you, Russia?
No one can say now how long this burning of souls by Russia will last. But we must do everything to make the occupiers regret that they have done all this, and to hold them accountable for every murder and every strike at our beautiful state.
Eternal glory to all who defend Ukraine!
Eternal memory to all who died for Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
There was no operational update again today from Ukraine’s MOD, though there were some other updates on the English version of the site. So hopefully whatever is going on with their public affairs is getting sorted out. There was also not a DOD backgrounder today.
Here is today’s assessment from Britain’s MOD:
They did not update their maps today.
You’ll notice that the British assessment is that Russian forces are still not able to make much progress in Sievierodonetsk even as it is still holding a majority of the city.
Here’s former NAVDEVGRU squad leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent map update and analysis regarding the battle of Sievierodonetsk:
SEVERODONETSK / 1630 UTC 11 JUN/ Conflicting information. UKR forces reported by reliable sources to be in control of airport, and may have advanced NE to the important T-13-06 HWY. Heavy combat and shelling continues. pic.twitter.com/88jKAWRx1c
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 11, 2022
Horomadske International is reporting that Russia maintains control of 2/3 of Sievierodonetsk:
As of June 11, Ukrainian forces control one-third of Sievierodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast. Intense fighting continues in the city, which is accompanied by constant bombing. Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to push the Russian troops back, said Head of Sievierodonetsk Civil-Military Administration Oleksandr Striuk to BBC Russian Service.
Striuk also said that the territory of Sievierodonetsk Azot chemical plant was “attacked both from the air and from heavy artillery” on June 10. “Yesterday, an ammonia processing plant exploded and a warehouse with chemical waste, which has been burning for 24 hours,” he said.
Striuk added that Sievierodonetsk has been living without a water supply for about two months now because the city is disconnected from the electricity.
“High-voltage lines are damaged, and 70% of substations in the city were destroyed by shelling. There are casualties — mostly from Russian artillery because residential neighborhoods are being constantly shelled. The streets on the city outskirts are completely destroyed,” said Oleksandr Striuk.
On May 25, Serhiy Haidai, Head of Luhansk Regional Military Administration, said that the Russian forces occupied 95% of Luhansk Oblast. There are now more than 40,000 people living in the territory of the region controlled by Ukraine; 99% of this population do not want to leave.
As of the morning of June 10, the Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway remains under Ukrainian control, despite being under constant Russian shelling.
Evacuation from Sievierodonetsk is now impossible. But the Ukrainian authorities manage to “quietly” evacuate people from Lysychansk and Hirske communities and deliver humanitarian aid to those areas. According to Haidai, as soon as Russian troops learn about the evacuation, a humanitarian center, or a working hospital, these points will be immediately shelled.
More at the link!
President Biden made a major strategic communication error at a fundraiser in Los Angeles last night. The Washington Post has the details:
President Biden said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “didn’t want to hear it” when U.S. intelligence officials raised warnings of a looming Russian attack before the Feb. 24 invasion.
Biden, who along with Congress has deepened U.S. involvement in the global effort to reject the Russian invasion by recently finalizing more than $40 billion in new military and humanitarian assistance, spoke at a Democratic fundraising event in Los Angeles on Friday night, according to the Associated Press and Bloomberg News. The president spoke about the American commitment to supporting Ukraine four months into the invasion, saying, “Nothing like this has happened since World War II.”
During his talk, Biden also mentioned that his administration had warned Zelensky and the Ukrainian government, based on U.S. intelligence, before the invasion began.
“I know a lot of people thought I was maybe exaggerating,” the president said, according to the AP.
Biden said he “knew we had data to sustain” that Russian President Vladimir Putin “was going to go in, off the border.”
“There was no doubt, and Zelensky didn’t want to hear it, nor did a lot of people,” Biden said, according to Bloomberg. “I understand why they didn’t want to hear it, but [Putin] went in.”
Ukrainian officials, however, rejected Biden’s account.
Serhiy Nykyforov, a spokesman for Zelensky, told Ukrainian news website LIGA.net that Zelensky had three or four telephone conversations with Biden in the period before the invasion, in which the two leaders discussed the situation. He added that Ukraine had called for preventive sanctions to de-escalate the situation.
“Therefore, the phrase ‘did not want to hear’ probably needs clarification,” Nykyforov said.
Zelensky adviser Mykhailo Podolyak echoed Nykyforov, telling LIGA.net that Ukraine knew Russia was planning an invasion but that questions had remained over the scale of any attack.
“It is absurd to accuse a country of resisting the aggressor for more than 100 days, which prevails if key countries have failed to stop Russia as a precaution,” he said.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment early Saturday.
Much, much more at the link!
I don’t care if this is true. I don’t care if President Biden thinks it’s true based on what he’s been briefed by his national security team. I don’t care if his national security team thinks it’s true. YOU DO NOT NEED TO TELL THIS TO ANYONE!!!! ESPECIALLY A CROWD OF PEOPLE WHERE IT IS MOST DEFINITELY GOING TO GET TO THE NEWS MEDIA!!!!!
This is a major strategic communication failure. Completely unnecessary strategic own goal.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Patron the bomb sniffing dog in Lviv pic.twitter.com/VvVOOA4KQO
— Philip Ittner (@PhilipIttner) June 8, 2022
A Ukrainian store on Etsy is selling these in addition to a variety of other stuffed toys – javelins, bayraktars, the Antonov Mriya, etc – and other crafts.
Here’s some more video of Patron sleeping through a press conference:
@patron__dsns
Open thread!
Last Minute Changes and Spur of the Moment Concoctions (Open Thread)
Jerzy Russian
Patron deserves a nap.
Alison Rose
JFC Biden. I try to defend you against all the assholes calling you demented because you’re old, and then you go and say something that fucking dense and stupid. Ugh.
This portion of Zelenskyy’s video tonight struck me:
He really knows how to put things so they hit you right in the damn heart.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Alison Rose
I want one of those Patron plushies but with shipping, that’s a lot for me. Maybe I’ll ask for it for my birthday next month.
Carlo Graziani
Well, her’s what looks kind of interesting to me.
In Sieverodonetsk there’s a slugfest (not a “stalemate” according to Mark Hertling), probably intended to deliberately grind down Russian manpower resources on terms more favorable to UA than what they could obtaining open countryside.
To the southwest, a new offensive is annoying lower-quality Russian troops guarding the far reaches of the “land bridge” surrounding Kherson.
Somehow, 200 tanks donated by Poland to Ukraine, the only truly “offensive” weapons on the public lists of donations, have not, so far as I am aware, made an appearance on the battlefield.
Meanwhile, this week there have been a number of “poor us, we’re fucked in the Donbas!” news stories peddled in a very consistent manner to Western media, notably the NYT. And more requests for purely reactive, defensive weapons, more artillery to counteract Rusdian artillery.
I smell a rat. I don’t believe the UA have any intention of continuing to be passive playthings in the hands of the Russian army. I think they are husbanding a reserve, and intend to take the initiative, and are play-acting for the sake of misdirection.
There’s a highway between Zaporizhzhia and Melitopol that would make a very nice drive for a strong column of tanks, APCs, dismounted infantry, helicopters, and sundry supplies. If they completed that jaunt, they would really put the cat among the pigeons. The Russians around Kherson, and in Crimea, would be basically fucked — they might as well slit their own throats. And the Russians in the Donbas are basically out of everything.
Just a toy scenario.
James E Powell
In the grand scheme of things, does that really matter? Seems like what really matters is keeping Ukraine supplied. And we’re doing that aren’t we?
SamIAm
Um, I’m not really seeing how this is an “enormous blunder” by Biden. Whether or not it’s true doesn’t materially affect the battlefield in Ukraine nor change anyone’s assessment of Zelenskky’s tremendous ability to lead. Nor can it be used on any Russian disinformation campaign.
Alison Rose
@James E Powell: Both things can be important. Yes, we are helping Ukraine. But yes, it is also messed up for Biden to say something like this, especially this far into the war. To me, it comes across in a very condescending manner, painting Zelenskyy as naive or immature. I know Biden does respect him as a leader, but a statement like that…what was his point in saying it? What did he think that conveyed? That the US–meaning Biden, in this case–knew what the deal was and Zelenskyy and others didn’t? It was unnecessary and like Adam alludes to, is red meat for our shitty news media. Why say anything to cast any kind of bad light on Zelenskyy?
the pollyanna from hell
In the first hours of the invasion, russia was surprised, not Ukraine. That was my impression from news reports anyway.
guachi
The public statements from Zelenskyy before the war were largely happy talk that didn’t match with the information publicly available. Biden didn’t need to say it because the evidence shows he’s likely correct. No need to say “I told you so”.
Adam L. Silverman
@Alison Rose : This is who Joe Biden is. It’s just part of the same thing that makes him a good politician. His ability to schmooze. Sometimes it gets him in trouble.
featheredsprite
@guachi: That was my impression also.
But with russia exporting so much death and damnation, what does it matter?
Another Scott
WH.gov has Biden’s 5-minute off-the-cuff remarks at a private residence, and his more formal extended remarks later at another DNC fundraiser.
He’s a busy man, but he still has time to read Balloon-Juice!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Alison Rose
@Adam L. Silverman: I just don’t understand what his thought process behind saying it could have been. Why did he think it was a thing he should say? What purpose does a comment like that make? It bothers me.
Grumpy Old Railroader
@SamIAm:
Tees a head scratcher, ain’t it? Not sure wot da fuss is all aboot.
Biden: He didna believe me!
Zelensky: Nope. Ya gotter wrong there matey but I couldna come right out and say so cuz media, ya know?
SargassoSink
@SamIAm:
@SamIAm:
Domestically it’s a large blunder; if it was very difficult to be aware of the risk, at the margin this tends let Trump off the hook. More broadly, anything that portrays Zalensky as less than completely competent doesn’t help further U.S. foreign policy for any number of reasons — in my view it’s cheap personal aggrandizement to the detriment of U.S. strategic aims.
NotoriousJRT
@SargassoSink: Hmm. Does no one remember Zelensky’s public positions prior to the invasion? I do. The public posture appeared to be one of denial. Allowing that I’m no expert, i do not see these comments as an own goal or a big blunder. I need a better explanation than what I’ve seen so far.
Chetan Murthy
@NotoriousJRT: Zelenskyy’s public position [ETA: from before the war] is at odds with the many things UA did to prepare for the attack though. It’s clear from those *immediately prior* preparations, that UA (and hence Zelenskyy) expected an attack. That their publiic position was at odds, is only normal: that was a negotiating stance with RU, and also with the West. For the former, accuse them of going to war and maybe they’ll get angry and do it. For the latter, you want to be the peacemaker, always working towards peace, never, ever, ever pushing for war.
At least, that’s what it seems like to me. I could be 100% wrong.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
Occasional communication errors are what you get with Biden. He’s been that way for decades. It’s a flaw but the material support we’re giving Ukraine is the most important thing. There was an article in the WaPo about how Ukraine was basically doomed because the war has become an artillery battle and they don’t have enough medium to long range artillery to match the Russians and then…today they’re on the offensive. It seems like their badmouthing their own capacity to A) fool the Russians into thinking they’re stuck doing nothing but defending and B) convince the West to hurry up already and get them more material.
@Carlo Graziani: I’ve read the same grind em down theory regarding Sieverodonetsk in the Daily Kos. It seems plausible as Russia is all in on taking it despite its lack of much strategic value. Ukraine hasn’t made many real mistakes in this war so the fact that they’re trying to hold on rather than conserving resources by retreating back behind the river to the high ground seems like strategy rather than just stubborness. I guess we’ll see.
bjacques
@Chetan Murthy: that was my impression also before the reinvasion. Zelenskyy wanted to downplay any talk of imminent war, and I remember him almost begging Biden and the Pentagon to stop saying there would be one. Meanwhile, of course, he and the rest of the government, including the Ukrainian military, had been planning for it for months.
Although it was an un-nuanced way for Biden to characterize now Zelenskyy’s position then, I think it will ultimately benefit Ukraine, by reminding the US and world how urgently Ukraine wanted to avoid war when Putin was not only sabre rattling, but also making a series of escalating demands before he attacked.
This should blunt the “both-sidesing” some actors have been doing since well before February.
Sally
For what little my opinion is worth ( ie, what you’re paying for it), I agree with those of you who think Zelenskyy was trying to downplay the possibility of war to 1) keep his people calm, and 2) persuade Putin and the Russian people not to invade their “friends and families” in UA. As Zelenskyy has said, and as we all say and know here, UA has been at war with RU for 8 years, and were preparing for this reinvasion as best they could. Zelenskyy might not have believed that the onslaught would have as wide a front as it was. Some of us thought that RU would invade from the east to take Donbas and Luhansk, and create the Crimean land bridge, but not simultaneously try to march on Kyiv. As the Ukrainian soldiers say, “thank god they were so stupid”. I think there is a real possibility that RU would have got away with that. The world might have upped the ante on a few sanctions, but otherwise shrugged it off. I think it would have looked bad politically for UA if Zelenskyy had been talking up the possibility of this wider war. But I also thought, possibly incorrectly, that Biden was playing a game with Putin. RU: “If USA was saying we are going to war, let’s just prove how worthless their intelligence is by NOT going to war. Ha ha joke’s on you.”
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
@bjacques:
zhena gogolia
@NotoriousJRT: Same here. And all sorts of well-informed people were saying it wasn’t going to happen. It doesn’t mean they’re incompetent, they just didn’t have a crystal ball.
Chief Oshkosh
@Adam L. Silverman: There’s schmoozing and then there’s lack of discipline. Both schmoozing and staying on point are needed to be a successful POTUS and CinC, IMO.
But, whaddayagonnado? He said what he said, he won’t learn from the mistake, so we just move on
ETA: The “he won’t learn” is about this sort of behavior — Biden’s always been a loose talker — and does not mean that I think he’s incapable of learning overall.
Betty
@Alison Rose : Biden blurting out gaffes is not new or age-related. Sadly.
Bill Arnold
Bunch of you lamenting that there wasn’t a Trump 2nd (and third and maybe fourth) term. Ukraine is entirely fucked in those alternative worlds. Trump was primed to be vindictive towards Ukraine.
Intelligence was complex pre-invasion..
E.g. Russian logistics were clearly not in place for a proper invasion, and almost certainly Ukraine intelligence saw that. American communications intercept capabilities are very very capable, and may have spotted chatter about orders and strong suggestions of higher-level planning.
And yeah, unless there are hidden reasons that we don’t know about, Biden should have shut up about this.