We’re back!
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address to Ukraine from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine).
Ukrainians!
All our defenders!
Today is a truly historic day – Ukraine has felt the support of four powerful European states at once. And in particular support for our movement to the European Union. Italy, Romania, France and Germany are with us. All four leaders – Mr. Draghi, Mr. Iohannis, Mr. Macron and Mr. Scholz – support Ukraine’s candidacy.
Of course, all relevant procedures must be followed, and all EU member states must join. But at our meeting today a big step was made – a step forward. It was important for me to hear from the leaders another fundamental thing – they agree that the end of the war and peace for Ukraine must be exactly as Ukraine sees them. As our people see them.
I am grateful to Italy for its principled political support, macro-financial and defense assistance. Historically we now have the best relations – and I am sure we can do a lot more for our nations.
I am grateful to Romania for the defense assistance and assistance in the transit of our goods, including grain. We agreed to increase export capacity through the territory of Romania.
France will provide additional Caesar artillery systems. This is very important for our defense. Also today, President Macron openly said that the European support for Ukraine should really demonstrate that we defend the same values, defend Europe together.
Germany has confirmed the provision of air defense systems for our country and further support.
By the way, when four leaders arrived in Kyiv today, it coincided with the beginning of the air raid siren. Russia has created a background for everyone to hear these sirens to create a tense atmosphere. But no one was scared, and it only inspired us to be as specific as possible and to negotiate for our interests – for all Ukrainians and for all in Europe.
Today I personally thanked Chancellor Scholz for inviting me to the G7 meeting. In general, my impression of the meeting is positive. All leaders understand why negotiations to end the war are not under way. Exclusively because of Russia’s position, which is only trying to intimidate everyone in Europe and continue the destruction of our state. They do not want to look for a way to peace. This is an aggressor who must decide for himself that the war must end.
We will continue to fight until we guarantee our state full security and territorial integrity.
We talked today about the preparation of a new sanctions package against Russia. We talked about overcoming the food crisis provoked by Russia. The resumption of exports of Ukrainian agricultural products is vital for dozens of countries. And there is only one reason why the food crisis has become possible at all: Russia is to blame, and no one else. All leaders already recognize this.
We talked about the reconstruction of Ukraine after the war – we have very specific views of partners on this.
I believe that it is not a coincidence that the situation with gas in Europe has worsened today – the price has jumped again. Russia has done this on purpose, restricting supplies to harm Europe, to strike at Europeans.
Gazprom is simply pulling on the gas chain in which they have been trying to shackle Europe for a long time. And this is another argument in favor of the fact that Europe must now switch to life without Russian gas. There should be no such dependence.
Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow there will also be a lot of news for Ukraine, and I believe that they will be positive. I really believe that. I would like to emphasize once again that all this is possible first of all thanks to our heroes, thanks to each and everyone who protects us from Russian troops.
Today, the Ukrainian army is fighting in the conditions of a significant quantitative advantage of the enemy – in technology, in artillery systems. Fighting in such conditions is a daily feat. We do everything to give our heroes modern and powerful weapons. And I am proud of all those who have been repelling the occupier and all the attacks for 113 days of the full-scale war already.
It is thanks to the bravery of Ukrainian men and women that Europe can create this new history of freedom and finally remove the “gray” zone between the EU and Russia in Eastern Europe. Ukraine has come closest to the European Union since independence.
Eternal glory to all who are fighting for Ukraine!
Eternal memory to all whose lives were taken by these occupiers!
Glory to Ukraine!
As you can see in President Zelenskyy’s remarks, shortly after it was reported that President Macron, Prime Minister Draghi, Chancellor Scholtz, and Prime Minister Iohannis had arrived in Kyiv, Russia launched a number of ballistic missiles from the direction of the Black Sea. This, of course, lit up the air defense radar all over Ukraine, which led to air raid alerts being issued for the entire country. Subtle Putin is not!
I want to focus on a couple of items that President Zelenskyy mentioned in his nightly address. The first is that France and Germany are going to support Ukraine’s candidacy. This is welcome news as many of us, based on the reporting, expected were going to either slow walk or outright object to Ukraine being given candidate status immediately. They are going to support Ukraine’s candidacy. In the case of Chancellor Scholtz it is because he is getting pressure from his coalition partners and the opposition:
Additional pressure on Scholz to move on 🇺🇦 membership candidacy comes from parliament, where Scholz risks a revolt next week — which he will seek to preempt.
More in today’s POLITICO Playbook, also with scoop by @HankeVela & @suzannelynch1 on 🇫🇷 plans:https://t.co/W9Fkay2UBx pic.twitter.com/uVWaoBdjsK
— Hans von der Burchard (@vonderburchard) June 15, 2022
I have a feeling that Scholtz is not going to have a long tenure as chancellor.
Regardless of why it is happening, this is good news:
The leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Romania on Thursday threw their weight behind accepting Ukraine and Moldova as EU membership candidates, laying to rest doubts over their stance amid Russia’s war against Ukraine.
“All four of us support the status of immediate candidate for membership,” French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters at a joint news conference in Kyiv, where the leaders had traveled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He was speaking alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis.
Scholz delivered a similar conclusion: “Germany is in favor of a positive decision in favor of Ukraine. This also applies to the Republic of Moldova,” the chancellor said. “Ukraine belongs to the European family,” he added.
Scholz’s statement was particularly notable since the chancellor had been more reluctant to endorse a trajectory toward membership for Ukraine or Moldova in previous comments.
I expect Hungary is going to continue to be a problem given who Orban is. How the EU leadership handles him will indicate how things are going to go.
The second thing I want to highlight is President Macron’s seeming change in rhetoric. Yesterday, Macron gave remarks at a press conference. The replies were then chopped up and many taken out of context. Here’s an accurate translation:
🧵 Macron was asked twice about his humiliation remarks at a presser with 🇷🇴 President Ioannis & hinted at Kyiv visit.
BFM clip below is actually Part 2 of Answer 1 (Part 1&more blunt answer 2 later in🪡)
🗣 Macron: “But we want to build peace. This means that at some point, 1/ https://t.co/zQwDszhDRy
— Elise (@Elise_ML) June 15, 2022
- “we all want fire to stop [i.e., ceasefire] and the discussions to resume. With this sentence, in constant contact with President Zelensky and as he has perfectly understood, I simply reiterated that we, Europeans, share a continent.” 2/
- “And geography is stubborn, and it so happens that at the end of it, Russia is still there. It is there today, it was there yesterday, it will be there tomorrow.” 3/
- “Russia is a power with [nuclear weapons] and so I never shared the opinion of those who say that “today we wage a war on the Russian people and tomorrow we want to annihilate them” as it is sometimes said. No.” 4/
as much as possible to resist and when, I hope, Ukraine will win and fire will stop, we will have to negotiate. Ukraine’s president & leaders will have to negotiate with Russia,” 5/ (Not that different from
Biden’s op-ed)
You can find part 1 translated at the tweet thread.
Despite President Macron seeming to get with the program, based on body language and facial expression, I’m not sure President Zelenskyy is particularly enamored of him:
I know it's may be just a caption, but note the difference in how leaders look at each other on these two photos.
📷 Zelenskyy official pic.twitter.com/X6DJ2qni3k— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) June 16, 2022
This, however, remains the real issue:
Ukraine military assistance: commitment vs actual deliveries. The US has delivered half of what it promised, Germany even less. Poland matches words with its deeds pic.twitter.com/HtDJ6X5667
— Daniel Szeligowski (@dszeligowski) June 16, 2022
Politico has the practical details:
The Biden administration is touting another $1 billion package of military aid to Ukraine, including thousands of rounds of critically needed ammunition for the grinding fight in the Donbas. But the U.S. announcement Wednesday was met with an outcry from Ukrainians and reporters on the ground, who all had the same complaint: It’s not enough.
Ukraine is only able to fire 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds per day, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister HANNA MALIAR told our own CHRISTOPHER MILLER in an interview — which means the 36,000 rounds the U.S. is sending in its latest tranche of assistance will last Kyiv roughly a week. Russia, meanwhile, fires nearly twice as many in a single day.
“There is not a single region in Ukraine that is safe today. There is not a single area that has not been hit by rocket fire,” Maliar said.
Russian forces have slowly but steadily started to make gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, pounding towns and cities there with nonstop shelling. In recent weeks, Moscow has tightened its grip on Sievierodonetsk, one of Ukraine’s last remaining strongholds in the area, and the two sides are locked in a brutal street-by-street battle for the city.
Ukraine is outgunned and outnumbered 10 to one on the battlefield, Maliar said. Russia has 330,000 personnel committed to the war in Ukraine — 150,000 of whom are currently on Ukrainian territory — and Ukrainian intelligence officials estimate that Moscow can sustain the intensity of its campaign in the Donbas for at least a year.
“If Ukraine is not given weapons, heavy weapons, air defense and missile defense today, then we won’t be able to survive this war,” Maliar said. “This shows the imbalance of power. It is clear how many weapons Ukraine needs in order to enter parity in order to win this war.”
The problem is that most of Ukraine’s artillery from before the invasion is Russian-built and fires 152 mm rounds that are no longer available to Kyiv. NATO countries are filling the gap by supplying Western artillery, including U.S. M777 Howitzers and 155 mm munitions. But this weapons flow is limited because it comes from Western inventories.
“We are supporting the Ukrainian military as rapidly as humanly possible,” Gen. MARK MILLEY, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Wednesday during a press conference in Brussels.
Here’s GEN Milley’s assessment of Ukraine’s progress as reported by DefenseOne:
“The Ukrainians are fighting them street by street house by house,” Milley said. “And it’s not a done deal. There are no inevitabilities in war. War takes many, many turns. So I wouldn’t say it’s an inevitability. But I would say that the numbers clearly favor the Russians.”
But, Milley said, Ukraine has been able to destroy between 20 to 30 percent of Russia’s armored force.
“That’s significant,” Milley said. “That’s huge.”
There was no operational update today from the Ukrainian MOD, nor was their an updated map from the British MOD. There is an assessment today from the British though:
And here’s former NAVDEVGRU squadron commander Chuck Pfarrer’s updated analysis and map of the battle for Sieverodonetsk:
SIEVERODONETSK / 2000 UTC 16 JUN / FEBA remains steady on existing axes. Heavy shelling continues targeting urban ares of Sieverodonetsk, Lysychansk and Linsa Dacha. Though urban attacks have been reinforced, RU forces have failed to advance beyond Bohdan Lishina Street. pic.twitter.com/y3kXhMyxa1
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 16, 2022
Secretary of Defense Austin held a press conference at today’s NATO Defense Ministerial Conference.
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE LLOYD J. AUSTIN III: Well, good afternoon, everyone. It’s always good to be back at NATO. I’d like to thank Secretary General Stoltenberg for hosting this defense ministerial and for his tremendous leadership during this critical time.
You know, back in 1949, President Truman said that NATO’s task would be to build, quote, “the structure of peace”, and he said what we must work patiently — he said that we must work patiently and careful, advancing with practical, realistic steps in the light of circumstances and events as they occur.
And that’s just what this Alliance has done since Russia’s indefensible invasion of Ukraine, and we have had to face events that we all hoped would never come to pass. And this Alliance has met the challenge with determination, with resolve, and above all, with unity. Together, we have responded swiftly and decisively to Russia’s baseless and lawless and reckless invasion of Ukraine. NATO has shown the world that it remains the essential forum for consultation, decision, and action on transatlantic security.
We are all proud to stand with the brave people of Ukraine as they defend themselves and their democracy and their sovereignty. And during this enormous crisis in European security, we’re proud to stand together to strengthen the rules-based international order that protects us all.
Our work together is indispensable, and these ministerials are invaluable. It’s an opportunity to consult with one another and to share ideas and to ensure that the Alliance is prepared to face the challenges of today and tomorrow.
Together, we have risen to the challenge of Putin’s war of choice, and Russia’s assault on transatlantic security. Our Allies have activated NATO’s defense plans. They’ve deployed elements of the NATO Response Force and they’ve placed tens of thousands of troops in the eastern areas of the Alliance, along with significant air and naval assets under the direct command of NATO and supported by Allies’ national deployments.
And NATO is also making plans to strengthen its deterrence and defense posture for the longer-term, especially along the eastern flank. Over two highly-productive days, this ministerial has laid the groundwork for important discussions and decisions at the NATO Summit in Madrid later this month.
Now, NATO is also close to welcoming two new members to the Alliance, and Finland and Sweden have made the historic decisions to apply for membership, and that reflects the appeal of NATO’s core values. The values that unite us as an Alliance remain strong and timeless, and so does our shared vision of a stronger rules-based international order and a more peaceful world.
I am deeply proud of the progress that we’ve made over the past several months, and now the good work must continue. And during our time together, I’ve encouraged my fellow ministers to do even more, and we all share the responsibility to procure, prepare, and provide ready capabilities and forces to prepare this Alliance for the challenges to come.
NATO’s preeminent task has not changed, to defend each and every Ally’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence. And that’s why America’s commitment to NATO and to Article 5 remains iron-clad.
Thank you for being here today. And I’m happy to take a couple of questions.
STAFF: (inaudible) from Frankfurter-Allgemeine.
Q: Thanks a lot. (inaudible)from Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Mr. Secretary, the reinforcements that NATO Allies are considering regarding the Eastern flank seems to be along the concept of scalable brigades. So this means that NATO member states will rely heavily on their ability to quickly move forces to theater when it’s necessary. We all know about shortcomings in logistics and weapons supplies over the previous years.
And I’m just wondering how confident are you that NATO member states will be up to the task, and will in fact be able to fulfill this requirement if need be? Thank you.
SEC. AUSTIN: Well, thanks. I am confident. I have confidence in the process and the ability of our Allies to build the capabilities that we agreed to — that we all need. You know, when I looked around the room in our meetings there, and I saw the commitment and the energy in that room and you know, I was — it was heartening. It was encouraging.
As you heard the Secretary General mentioned earlier, there are things that we can do and will do to make sure that it’s a lot easier to rapidly-deploy forces forward. Some of those things include pre-positioning of equipment, putting forces that are at home station on higher levels of alert, streamlining command-and-control so that it’s easier to fall in on a formation.
So, recognizing the challenges of the past, I think, you know, all of our allies have learned from any shortcomings that we may have experienced in the past. And they’ll build to ensure that they have the right capabilities to provide flexible and responsible and combat-credible forces when the time comes.
STAFF: Oren Liebermann, CNN?
Q: Mr. Secretary, you talked about the support of NATO behind the cause of Ukraine. It’s relatively easy, by and large, to unite NATO governments, but how do you keep the NATO public engaged when many, including in the U.S., are already more concerned about the high costs of fuel and inflation than they are about what’s happening in the Donbas region?
How fragile is public support for this, as it drags on?
SEC. AUSTIN: Well, certainly, making sure that the public — that the people of each of our countries in the Alliance remain engaged. I’m confident that our leaders will do the right thing to address their constituents.
You know, as we come together and talk about complex issues, you know, we can be assured from time to time that there will be differences of opinion, but that’s why we have these meetings, to make sure that we — you know, we really wring things out and entertain any questions or issues that various countries may have so that they can go back and work with their constituents and make sure that, you know, people really understand where the Alliance is going and what it needs.
And I have confidence that in every case, we’ll be able to reach consensus and move forward. We’ve done that in the past; I certainly saw evidence of that here in this meeting and in other meetings. But that’s why we have these meetings. That’s why we come together.
But in terms of making sure that the constituents of the various countries, you know, remain supportive of our efforts, I have confidence that the leadership of the various countries will be able to manage that and maintain support, so…
STAFF: Lili Bayer, Politico E.U.?
Q: Thank you very much. I have two brief questions. The first is, could you update us more specifically on your thinking on what kind of extra support the U.S. might offer Eastern NATO allies? And the second question is, what assistance is the U.S. providing Ukrainians trying to repair Javelins? Thank you.
SEC. AUSTIN: Well, I don’t have any announcements to make today. I would say that, you know, as you look back at what’s happened since the 24th of February, members of the Alliance have really stepped up. We rapidly deployed capability to the eastern flank in order to reassure our Allies that, you know, we’re ready to defend every inch of NATO’s territory. So if you look at the things, the increase in force posture, since that time, you know, it’s been impressive. And so that’s kind of reassuring when we look at the future and what we need to do in the future to make sure that we have that combat-credible capability. I feel very good about us being able to work together to ensure that we have what we need.
You heard the Secretary General say earlier that what we’re really focused on is not just numbers of boots on the ground; we’re really focused on total capability, so capability in air, land, sea and cyber and space. And you know, as we look at putting that together- and you heard me say a couple minutes ago that there are things that we’re also looking at in terms of pre-positioning of equipment, you know, streamlining command-and-control, making sure that — you know, that we have our balance and footprint about right. There are number of things that we’re going to be working on going forward, but that’s — that is still a work in progress, and you know, I expect that at the Madrid Summit we’ll see senior leaders make announcements based upon the recommendations from the ministers and the things that we’ve worked out here.
STAFF: We have time for just one more. Jim Garamone from the Defense Media Activity.
Q: Mr. Secretary, the Secretary General mentioned that China was a — and your — of discussion during the meetings. You just came from the Shangri-La and from the Asia-Pacific. How did you see that conversation going?
SEC. AUSTIN: Conversation —
Q: In the meetings about China and the strategic concept.
SEC. AUSTIN: Well, I — you know, clearly, the members of the Alliance are supportive of what’s in the strategic concept, and they recognize the importance of making sure that we pay attention to what’s going on in the Indo-Pacific, and we all have a common interest in making sure that the Indo-Pacific remains free and open and accessible.
So we’ve seen a number of countries that are members of this Alliance operate in the Indo-Pacific, some in conjunction with us and other countries like Australia and Japan. And so there are clearly a number of countries who have direct interest in the Indo-Pacific. But the Alliance as a whole, as you’ve heard the Secretary General say, has — is interested and is — and will stay — will pay attention to what’s going on in the region.
But again, Jim, if you just kind of look at the importance of all those countries out there, it’s a — my view, it’s the right thing to do and it’s the same view that our Allies have, as well, so —
STAFF: Thank you, everyone.
SEC. AUSTIN: Thanks, everybody, and I’ll see you on the next ministerial or at the summit.
I think that’s more than enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
From Patron’s Instagram page (they don’t embed for some reason)
Here’s the accompanying caption:
patron_dsns It’s me from the grass looking out who is so pretty looking at me. And this is you! I went to bite the telephone wires because @emmanuelmacron came to Ukraine, and he has some problems with the uncontrollable desire to call one disrespectful person
And the picture:
And here’s some new video of Patron from his TikTok account:
@patron__dsns ✨🐶 @HSHQ #патрон #песпатрон #патрондснс
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
Genocide.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Indeed. Clear as crystal.
I was very glad to see the turnaround regarding EU status, and while I’ve seen that actually becoming a member state can take up to a decade, I do hope that once the candidacy is officially approved, the EU can find some ways to speed the process along, while still doing whatever it is they’re supposed to do.
Thank you as always, Adam.
featheredsprite
Re: EU membership. What about Turkey?
Spanky
@featheredsprite:
Yeah, I was wondering if Erdogan had shut the fuck up. Of course, the 1/6 hearings are sucking up all the news cycles these days.
eclare
@Gin & Tonic:
Without a doubt. Horrible.
Adam L. Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: As we’ve been saying.
Mallard Filmore
I saw a YouTube video yesterday:
video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fROw_Ogcbc
video title: “Russia ‘Destroys’ NATO Arms, US Pledges $1 Billion Military Aid To Ukraine, Xi-Putin Vow Cooperation”
It talks about Eastern Europe here: https://youtu.be/_fROw_Ogcbc?t=278
There must be some reliable intel about Russia’s plans to expand west after Ukraine is taken care of. Russia’s TV show (not in this video) with the crackpot Duma politician is fantasizing about taking big chunks out of Eastern Europe. Says the locals will have to settle for little pocket enclaves if they want their “freedom”. Sounds like a ghetto to me.
Xi and Putin are cozying up. Xi says the sanctions against Russia are illegal. Why would he say that? As long as there is no blockade, countries are allowed to control their own commerce, even band together to control commerce within or from their own block.
Only China and Russia are allowed to have secure borders. All others must tremble when they speak.
video link: https://youtu.be/e5xT2eI27Nk
Looks like Russia and China will form an alliance to counter the USA/EU power block. They must have already agreed on how the world will be split between them. Lotsa luck with that. It will be like a store brand cola competing against Coke and Pepsi. Shoddy and never a first choice.
Andrya
@featheredsprite: My understanding is that Turkey is a member of NATO but not the EU. I have a close friend with a half-Kurdish son, so her input might be a little biased, but my my understanding is that Turkey wanted to join the EU, but never implemented EU standards against invidious discrimination (ethnic discrimination against Kurds; religious discrimination against Christians, Bahai’s, and Muslims who convert to other faiths).
@Gin and Tonic: Absolutely genocide, horrific and heartbreaking.
Adam, thanks so much for doing this.
Adam L. Silverman
@featheredsprite: Turkey is not in the EU. Every time they’d complete the checklist, the French would abuse the process to insist Turkey needed to do more. The Turks realized they were being jerked around and gave up on the EU. This contributed to the rise of Erdogan and his degradation of Turkey’s liberal democratic tradition.
Turkey definitely needed to improve in several areas, but even when they made good faith efforts they were getting jerked around. And the public face of that was the French government. I’m sure Germany was happy to let the French take the heat on this.
columbusqueen
@Adam L. Silverman: The French really have problems with egalite & fraternite when it’s Muslins, don’t they?
Andrya
@Adam L. Silverman: Am I wrong that ethnic/religious discrimination was a factor in excluding Turkey from the EU? (If I am wrong, I welcome correction.). I can readily believe the French jerked the Turks around (M. Macron is doing plenty of jerking around right now). However, the Wikipedia article on Religious Freedom in Turkey contained plenty of stuff that I’d consider unacceptable (though not rising to the Stalin or Khomeini level of oppression). Did I get this wrong?
debbie
@Mallard Filmore:
Pogrom.
kalakal
@Gin & Tonic: Text book genocide.
Adam, that’s an excellent summary of Turkey and the EU. Erdogan was able to weaponise legitimate Turkish feelings that the EU was ultimately never going to admit them. A lot of Turks felt that racism was at the root of it. I can’t speak of the press in the rest of Western Europe but they certainly weren’t wrong about how the British press scaremongered about potential Turkish membership
Mallard Filmore
@debbie:
Yes. “We will let the survivors live here.”
RaflW
Sec. Austin: “NATO is also close to welcoming two new members to the Alliance, and Finland and Sweden have made the historic decisions to apply for membership, and that reflects the appeal of NATO’s core values. The values that unite us as an Alliance remain strong and timeless, and so does our shared vision of a stronger rules-based international order and a more peaceful world.”
Turkey: Not so fast.
eta: I see some related info has appeared in the comments!
Mallard Filmore
@RaflW:
Turkey joined NATO on 18 February 1952.
Turkey’s problems with the EU are a separate issue.
Adam L. Silverman
@Andrya: You are not. But stiff arming Turkey made it worse, not better.
Adam L. Silverman
@kalakal: I lived in Scotland between 92 and 95 and the British press was savage.
sanjeevs
@Adam L. Silverman: They are orders of magnitude worse these days. Full fash.
glc
Turkey’s internal problems are long-standing and deep-rooted and have little to do with its relations with the EU. Start with the Kurds (and go way, way back) and then the Gulen/Erdogan alliance and rivalry.
Medicine Man
It will be interesting to see how they deal with Orban. That slimy turd isn’t any kind of political genius; just another two-faced authoritarian who has benefited mightily from his neighbours being more interested in making money than defending democratic values. I suspect if he is too overt in sabotaging European security, his smug ass could become a lot less popular, even in his own country.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Erdogan seems to be stirring up a number of different pots; he’s also mucking around in the Aegean, demanding demilitarization of many Greek islands. Of course, my sources for this are the Greek press, which has a natural bias and a long-standing antagonism towards Turkey (hint to the wise: if you’re visiting Greece, don’t ask for a Turkish coffee).
Cathie from Canada
Just a note that when it comes to considering the arms needed for this war, I think its worth remembering how huge Ukraine is.
I made some rough calculations the other day — the length of the entire front, from Kharkiv to Kherson, is equivalent to the distance from Calgary to Winnipeg (800 miles) — in comparison, all of the D-Day beaches (which needed 160,000 soldiers to invade) were about 80 miles.
So it going to take lots and lots of armament and many soldiers to push Russia back and out.
Steeplejack
@Cathie from Canada:
“How huge Ukraine is.” It’s almost as big as Texas. Map comparison here.
sab
People complaining about Turkey in NATO are clueless. Turkey controls access from Mediterranean to Black Sea. As Russia has learned this Spring, if you don’t have Turkey on your side in eastern Europe then you have problems.
Turkey in EU is a whole different set of issues.
Also, UK had to wait for deGaulle to die before they could get into EU. Tiny window of opportunity. They really thought at Brexit time that if it didn’t work out that Europe would let them back in? They were lucky to be there in the first place.
sab
@Steeplejack: Biggest country in Europe, as their president likes to say. Biggest country in Europe isn’t a huge bar, but Ukraine is actually very very big.
Carlo Graziani
@Cathie from Canada: Also, the eye-watering rate of consumption in wartime, which is orders of magnitude more than anyone ever plans for (many folks have pointed this out in comments here).
And, Hertling (I think) has pointed out the following key point: old Warsaw Pact inventory is now gone. New supplies are going to have to be NATO-standard. Deploying a new weapons system in a NATO army, with not only its ammo and training, but also its replacement parts and complex maintenance and support (you want it to keep working for more that a couple of days), generally takes months, if nothing goes wrong, in peacetime. Things are undoubtedly more difficult in war.
“Give us the damn weapons so we can shoot them” is perfectly understandable, but the answer is necessarily going to be “sorry, not so fast”, because there’s no point in handing over a high-tech artillery system if its lifetime is going to be measured in days — it will have no discernible effect on any battle. The pipeline is moving as fast as it can. It isn’t being slow-walked by bureaucrats or by saboteurs or by people who don’t understand the urgency. Some bottlenecks simply cannot be widened by force of will.
Steeplejack
@sab:
Yes, we tend to dismiss Europe as a bunch of “small” countries jumbled together, but the size of Ukraine stands in stark opposition.
Texas vs. Germany, which we tend to think of as a “big” European country.
NotMax
FYI.
Geminid
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: During the last decade, Erdogan managed to alienate most of his Middle East neighbors with his military initiatives in Syria and Libya, and his freeze in relations with Israel. He’s been patching things up lately, renewing ties with Gulf states as well as Israel. This makes me think that in the end Turkey won’t block Finland’s and Sweden’s entry into NATO, but is just extracting concessions when he can.
Erdogan appears to want better relations with the U.S., which were damaged when he purchased Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. He would like to get back in line to purchase the F-35 fighter jet.
eversor
Turkey will continue to block Finland and Sweden. That’s over.
topclimber
@Geminid: Pedant alert: Russia is the biggest country in Europe.
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani:
Explain Germany.
Gin & Tonic
@topclimber: More pedantry: Ukraine is the largest country which is entirely in Europe.
Gin & Tonic
@eversor: Turkey doesn’t give a shit about Finland and Sweden, they’re using that to get the Kurds thrown under the bus again, which will eventually happen.
topclimber
@Gin & Tonic: Tell it to Wikipedia.
ETA to concede the nitpick.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic:
Well, I was referring to the US arms pipeline. What I had in mind was the graphic with only half the promised US weapons delivered. Obviously Scholz is a constipation.
Bill Arnold
@eversor:
Do you genuinely not think there are ways to pressure Erdoğan? Erdoğan has vulnerabilities, some even personal. (E.g. One of his political “strengths”, his self-presentation (and actual mindset) as a messiah, is bullshit that could be made to ferment into fine compost.)
bookworm1398
‘@29. I don’t understand why this is being sailed all the way to the US vs over to Australia?
Chetan Murthy
@bookworm1398: US Marshals took possession. One would assume that they would want to bring the seized goods to a US jurisdiction posthaste. Can never tell what those furriners might decide, after all.
Gin & Tonic
In other maritime news:
Another Scott
@glc: Invading Cyprus and breaking the island in half, and still being there almost 50 years later, didn’t help, either.
The region and its history are very complicated.
Lots and lots of things are going on with
TurkeyTürkiye. Erdogan has made most of the things worse.Cheers,
Scott.
(“Full disclosure – my father’s father was from Athens.”)
eversor
@Bill Arnold:
No I don’t. He has us by the short hairs as we need them more than they need us. He gets what we want we get shit. That’s how it is, and it’s not going to change. Also, he’ll sell us out to Russia and neither party will do shit because again, we need him more than he needs us.
Negotiations and talking are meaningless. He has the power, he has the leverage, we are at best begging him and we will be told what to do. He has important naval access and lets us into the middle east, so he gets whatever he wants and that’s the end of that.
Another Scott
@eversor: The Black Sea is a bathtub. If important NATO members, say, decide that nothing goes through the Dardanelles or the Bosphorus then nothing is getting through no matter what Türkiye might think about it. It’s geography.
Yes, things would have to get very, very bad to reach that point. But Türkiye is not all-powerful here.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Uncle Cosmo
You conveniently forget (your grandad being Greek after all) that the Cypriot mess was triggered by the Greek colonels’ junta 1974 push for enosis (union with Greece), which featured the deposition and attempted assassination of the Cypriot president, Greek Orthodox Bishop Makarios. The Turks (with 10x Greece’s population and armed forces, 10x closer to Cyprus than the Greek mainland) occupied the north on behalf of the Turkish Cypriot community there. No doubt there were other motives in play – but still, an incredibly stupid move by the Greeks.
(FTR I had a lovely conversation in 1997 with the owner of the ksenodokhio in Hania where I was staying. He tried to lecture this Yank about Cyprus & was stunned when I knew as much as he did about it. Finally he spluttered that Henry Kissinger [!?!?!] had “ordered” the junta to seize the island; I told him he was full of shit & walked out.)
No argument there…but after a fair perusal of the history I (with no dog in the hunt) can say that many of the Greeks’ difficulties were self-inflicted. (E.g., not being satisfied with the Aegean coastal territories they were awarded after the First World War & charging pell-mell into the Anatolian interior, outrunning their supply lines – which gave Atatürk and Inönü the opportunity to kick their butts all the way back to the coast, where they swam out to the Allied warships offshore and screamed for them to land troops and pull their baklava out of the fire…)
No argument there either. Erdogan parlayed a reputation as a goo-goo (good government) mayor of Istanbul to national power. In many ways it’s too goddamn bad that the 2016 attempted coup by the Army (which since Atatürk considered themselves the guardians of the secular Turkish state) misfired & allowed Erdogan to purge the secularists from the armed forces, cementing his rule.
Uncle Cosmo
@Gin & Tonic: In the creation myth of modern Türkiye, the role of Original Sin is played by the existence of the Kurdish people. Atatürk’s biggest misjudgement was to claim the Kurds were nothing but “mountain (i.e., hillbilly) Turks” when their language, culture, and history were drastically separate from the rest of Anatolia. And Turkish governments down to that rat-bastard Erdogan have perpetuated the problems.
Another Scott
@Uncle Cosmo: All good points. Yeah, as the Wikipedia article points out, Greece’s dictatorship had a huge hand in setting the stage for the invasion.
And Democratic Greece has had issues with neighbors (the Macedonia/North Macedonia naming conflict, etc.) too.
But Türkiye under Erdogan has taken it to the next level.
It will be interesting to see how the NATO expansion issues are finally resolved, and what that means for Ukraine when her time comes.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
The Lodger
@Cathie from Canada: Canada has eight (of 13) provinces and territories with more area than Ukraine. Why do you call Ukraine huge? Sure, it’s bigger than, say, Nova Scotia, but heck.
Bill Arnold
@eversor:
You appear to know very little about ruthlessness.
Uncle Cosmo
@Bill Arnold: Maybe the US, Sweden & Finland ought to sign a Nordic Area Treaty Organization protocol with something equivalent to Article V firmly in place…& then invite the rest of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization members to join at their pleasure and leisure. That oughta cut the Gordian knot (as long as we’re still talking about Greece and Turkey here… :^D).
Jinchi
Turkey is the reason Russia can’t bring in the rest of it’s fleet into the Black Sea and they’ve also given Ukraine critical military assistance (like the Bayraktar drones). Sometimes you gotta take the bad with the good.
Uncle Cosmo
I think you’ve missed the point. Why not take the good with the better? Why can’t we just whip up another treaty organization to bring the Swedes & Finns under an Article V-ish umbrella? Betcha Norway, Iceland, Denmark, the Baltics and Poland would sign on in a heartbeat – they’d all love to have the Finnish army and its F-35s dangling over Ptui!n’s head along all 1300 km of that border. Most everyone else this side of the Balkans would follow. If the Turks won’t let them in the current club, let’s just go up the street and build another clubhouse and let the Swedes and Finns decide whether to let Erdogan’s crypto-Islamist state come over to play, not to mention Orban’s Magyar mishegoss. (Which hurts me no end to say, because I like the Turkish people a lot – they don’t deserve what they ended up with. Hungarians…ehh…great food but arrogant bastards; only place in Europe where I would get dumped on [repeatedly] for having the nerve to wish good day [Jo napot kivanok] in the local tongue…)
Andrya
@Uncle Cosmo: Public use of the Kurdish language was illegal in Turkey from 1983 to 1991, and even after 1991 there were many incidents of repression of Kurdish language and culture. I would say “what is it with these people?” if there weren’t a lot of Americans, today, who would like to suppress the use of languages other than English.